QAV Podcast Episodes

This week on QAV we talk about Bloody Thurs­day, James’ great QAV results, how Navexa cal­cu­lates port­fo­lio returns, Buffett’s glob­al mar­ket indi­ca­tor, CVW hir­ing invest­ment bankers, CCV’s new QAV score, audit reports still com­ing out, ATL’s audit, lob­by­ing ASIC about 4E state­ments, Josephines being due to div­i­dend drops, Munger’s “always invert” les­son, Tony’s pulled pork is AIS, James asks about mod­i­fy­ing the QAV process for com­modi­ties, Steve asks about WMC’s audit, Dave asks about run­ning mul­ti­ple port­fo­lios, Edward asks about infla­tion, and Mark asks about how Tony picks large cap stocks. Plus After Hours!

Tony reports on his recent analy­sis on com­pa­nies that go from a neg­a­tive cash­flow to a pos­i­tive cash­flow; Tony has been try­ing to find a place where a qual­i­fied audit is record­ed that makes them eas­i­er to find than hav­ing to scroll through the annu­al report; GLE’s results are out and their shares are up; Speak­ing of score­cards, we’re pub­lish­ing our first offi­cial score­card since get­ting our AFSL this week! ; Our port­fo­lio just passed the two year anniver­sary and is look­ing good; Tony’s pulled pork this week is CVW, Clearview Wealth; and we talk about ASG, MXI, VRS, com­mod­i­ty stocks, VUK, HUM, CKF and CAR.

This week we have some big news, talk about some minor errors we’ve fixed in the check­list and bible, then Tony does a pulled pork on COG, we explain ASX’s cash flow anom­aly from last week, Tony talk about some recent regres­sion test­ing he has done on sell­ing when the QAV score hits 0.5 and on using ROE in our check­list, Shell sce­nario plan­ning frame­works, whether or not we should dis­count sen­ti­ment for com­pa­nies with a small float, which part of the cycle Tony thinks the mar­ket is in and whether or not it mat­ters, MYE’s falling QAV score, the sell line for CDD, the buy line for CAA, and how Tony treats REITs.

This week we pull the pork on EHL, and talk about JBH, QBE, cop­per, AMP, War­ren Buffett’s goat, URW, SWM, HUM, RMS, BHP, ASX, BFG, MIL, ASB, MHJ, we chat with young investor Lachie Dun­can, and answer a bunch of your ques­tions.

On this episode we talk about find­ing ASX300 stocks, CGF is the pulled pork, range trad­ing, buy­ing and sell­ing dur­ing report­ing sea­son, Rule #2, cal­cu­lat­ing port­fo­lio returns for volatile port­fo­lios, nat­ur­al gas, pal­la­di­um, nick­el and alu­mini­um stocks, tak­ing qual­i­ty of man­age­ment into con­sid­er­a­tion, the CBA off mar­ket buy back, the MXI 5:1 con­sol­i­da­tion, sell lines for stocks going ex-div­i­­dend and our TV, movie and music rec­om­men­da­tions!

Today Tony is talk­ing a lot about com­mod­i­ty prices and what their decline means for our port­fo­lio. Iron ore, gold, cop­per and plat­inum are all in decline. We also talk about the “Dogs of QAV” mod­el, SKT, RIO, CBA, DSK, Super­hero’s per­for­mance issues, and explain what a “Josephine” is.

This week we talk about why MML crashed after it announced its quar­ter­ly results. How Tony uses “Rule #1” to avoid los­ing mon­ey. Lots of inter­est­ing things going on with oil at the moment. How merg­ers and acqui­si­tions can be a sig­nal of late mar­ket cycle behav­iour. Why FMG’s huge div­i­dend pay­out is a sig­nal of things chang­ing with the com­pa­ny. RIO’s results in Stock Doc­tor. How Tony updates his score­card in the ear­ly stages of report­ing sea­son. His pulled pork this week is CCV. How to cal­cu­late the per­for­mance of a port­fo­lio with a lot of cap­i­tal in and out flows. And the idea of adding ROE>20% as an item to the check­list.

This week we talk about MIL’s “Empha­sis of Mat­ter”, MXI’s trad­ing halt, MTO’s sell line, MML’s sell line, ABA’s buy line, WWG’s QAV score, invest­ing in QAV to build up a deposit for a prop­er­ty, Tony’s pulled pork is HZN, CBA’s sell line, MQG’s sell line, the oil price’s sell line, ANZ’s sell line, tail­winds, using EV/EBITDA, XRO’s sell line, how Tony defines an uptick, and our guest today (club edi­tion only) is Ali­son Har­ring­ton, Bris­bane Con­venor and Edu­ca­tion Offi­cer Qld for the Aus­tralian Share­hold­ers’ Asso­ci­a­tion, who talks about women in invest­ing.

Amend­ments to the 3PTL word­ing in the bible; how to cal­cu­late per­for­mance of a volatile port­fo­lio; cre­at­ing wealth by gear­ing a prop­er­ty; updat­ing your 3PTL alerts; the pulled pork on SUN; sell lines for banks and oth­er stocks with high QAV scores; KRM is stop­ping gold pro­duc­tion, what does that mean for investors; C6C has dropped, when do we sell?

Anoth­er long episode (1.5 hours)! We talk about our per­for­mance vs the top funds; Buffett’s ABCs; Why TK bought gold min­ers over retail­ers last week; the idea of a “sec­ond peak”; HUM’s expo­sure to Forum Finance; the per­for­mance of the 2017 Dogs; a deep dive on MML and MIL; how Rule #1 works; how TK would invest if he was 25 again; whether or not I should sell MYR; cop­per phys­i­cal vs futures; and how to spot “bad news” dur­ing report­ing.

Sell­ing BEN; cal­cu­lat­ing port­fo­lio per­for­mance; stocks being removed from an index; com­pa­nies with just six months of data; tim­ing of a new 3pt upturn; share buy backs; DPS vs EPS; qual­i­fied audits; Vocus (VOC) takeover; high­est QAV scores for ASX200; “GOLDEN CROSS” and “DEATH CROSS”; com­pa­ny notices; bal­anc­ing out tax payable on port­fo­lio gains.

Work­shops; Lem­mings; CBA launch­es BNPL ser­vice; CVL below the buy price; STOW = GCY; ZIM audit unsplat­ted; How Tony decid­ed to sell a stock before the 3PTL; Should we fudge the ECX sell line; EVZ qual­i­fied audit; what met­rics make up the SD IV; where Tony learnt how to draw 3PTL; gold price chart on index mun­di; how the chi x works with or along side the asx.

The 2021 Buf­fett newslet­ter; Why we sold HAW & RMS; how impor­tant is neg­a­tive EPS; the impact of unlist­ed share options; the high prices of the bank­ing sec­tor; Tony’s thoughts on Div­i­dend rein­vest­ment plans; and Tony’s thoughts on invest­ing through high infla­tion or high inter­est rate envi­ron­ments such as the 1980s.

Sell­ing HAW. GME law­suit. Changes to dis­clo­sure law. Stock of the week. Return on Equi­ty as a met­ric. Greater port­fo­lio allo­ca­tion for high­er QAV scores. Trend­line buffers. Man­u­al­ly entered scores. BOQ / ME merg­er. MXI qual­i­fied audit. MQG Cap­i­tal Notes 5 raise. Sell­ing “over­val­ued” stocks.

This is the audio from our 4th Zoom call record­ed 9 Feb 2021.

This is my high­light show for 2020. Obvi­ous­ly, from an invest­ing per­spec­tive, 2020 was all about how to han­dle Aus­trali­a’s first reces­sion in 30 years and a major mar­ket cor­rec­tion, so I’ve pulled togeth­er some of Tony’s com­ments on those sub­jects in the first half of the year. To fin­ish off the episode, I picked a cou­ple of clips of TK talk­ing about the mir­a­cle of com­pound­ing and why investors need to embrace volatil­i­ty.