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While Friday brought a dead cat bounce, Tony thinks the correction is just getting started. He says we’re yet to see the impact of the coming credit crunch. We answer a question about whether or not Tony invests for the purpose of living off the dividend income, and in our club edition we analyse Macmahon Holdings (MAH) just for practice. As I say – NOW is the time to send yourself to QAV University. When the market turns around, we should all be ready with a watchlist so we can jump in quickly and ride it all the way up in the next cycle.
Tons of questions this week from club members about how to invest during a market correction. And as the market is still in free fall, we don’t bother with a stock analysis. So we just spend 90 minutes answering your excellent questions.
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
Yes, the market is in freefall – but that’s great for disciplined value investors. As Tony explains on this week’s episode, large market downturns happen once every five-seven years, and it’s in the rebounds that the best investors make big moves. He talks more about how he uses the three point trend line during downturns and we discuss some of our favourite snippets from this year’s Berkshire Hathaway Chairman’s newsletter.
Tony talks about the UNV offer and why we sold it last week and CSV’s recent acquisition, which took it out of our portfolio. To answer a question from QAV Club member Nick B, we also talk more about when and why Tony will exit a stock. Our Stock Of The Week is AQG, Alacer Gold. And then, we watch in amusement as the ASK dives while we are recording the episode and Tony explains why, as a value investor, he worries more about his golf swing than he does and ups and downs of “Mr Market”.
Steven Mabb is our guest on the show today. He’s a recent QAV Club subscriber but has been a full time investor for the last couple of years, since exiting a very successful footwear business.He and Tony compare notes about investing in International ETFs, why buying stock #201 is a good strategy, neobanks, shareholder associations, and cheap brokerage versus using a full service broker.In our Club edition, our stock of the week is BPT (again). And we answer a question from Ange about what qualifies as a ‘recent positive upturn’. We also talk again about the decline of our portfolio in recent weeks due to the COVID-19 panic. Tony reminds us about Warren Buffett’s story about “Mr Market”.
Our portfolio continues to take a hit from COVID-19. But Tony is as calm as a zen master. He’s the ICEMAN. We talk about the corruption allegations against HZN and changes to CIA’s listing. Our stock of the week is MFD.
Tony discusses his portfolio management strategy during a downturn like the Wuhan Black Swan that is currently going on. He also answers some listener questions about having a small portfolio and debt-to-equity ratios. Our stock of the week is Korvest (KOV).
This week we’re joined by Rudy Filapek-Vandyck from fnarena.com. He explains his “super stock” or “all-weather performer” investing strategy. In the QAV Club extended episode, Tony discusses the effect the Wuhan virus has had on the ASX and our portfolio this week, the latest results from CCP, and we break down the financials of AMI.
As we’re into “confession season” and have “reporting season” rapidly approaching, Tony shares some of the details of the filters/alerts he uses in Stock Doctor to find opportunities. He also answers a listener question about the benefits of using free cash flow versus operating cash flow.
Our stock of the week is CIA – Champion Iron.
Tony answers some questions from listener Jamie in Perth about balance between property and shares. He also talks about a couple of investing books he’s been reading, and in our Club edition we analyse BSL – Bluescope Steel.
Season Two of our investing podcast!! We look at our portfolio’s month end report and how it compared to the All Ords Total Return index and answer questions from Club Member Mike L about the accuracy of future predictions. Then we talk about commodities trend lines as a source of comfort when investing in coal, and our analysis this week is GRR.
Our guest this week is listener Andre Bravo, a Canadian who has a Masters in Applied Computational Economics and works in the weed industry. Oh NOW I have your attention! Andre joined us this week to talk about the app he has written to speed up his own QAV analysis, and then we get his help to analyse our first US stock – Hertz (HTZ.N). It’s an interesting one because we couldn’t use our usual tools and had to resort to pulling up numbers manually. The basic lesson is that the checklist can be used to analyse US stocks. Andre also asks a few really great questions about how Tony uses the checklist and gave a refresher course how on to simulate Stock Doctor’s financial strength rating using other sources of data. Thanks for all of your support this year! We hope you learned a lot and are feeling more confident in your ability to analyse stocks. We’ll be back next week with Season Two of our investing podcast!
On this episode:
We have our second QAV Club subscriber guest, Paul, a criminal lawyer from Sydney, who calls himself “a disastrous investor”.
Paul asked Tony a bunch of great questions about the checklist, including drilling down on why Tony doesn’t try to understand a business deeply before he invests in it (like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch), and about understanding how to factor in shorting.
Cameron reads out some quotes from “Winning The Loser’s Game” by Charles D Ellis and gets Tony’s comments on them.
Our stock deep dive of the week is MRC – Mineral Commodities.
We have our first QAV Club subscriber guest – Murray Bruce from Bruce Insurance in Perth, one of our first subscribers. He asks Tony a question about whether or not he is comfortable purchasing any share that rates well, or does he do additional research on the company before making a buy.
This week we talk about why our portfolio outperformed the index by 1300%, the wisdom of Peter Lynch, why Howard Marks wants to stay in the middle, and our stock analysis of the week is Universal Coal.
Tony talks about rights issues and some of the complexities involved in knowing whether to take them up or not. I know, right? Sounds boring! It wasn’t actually, I learned a lot. We also discussed a few recent news articles about value investing, Tony reveals his wine of the week, and in our analysis section we breakdown the financials of Horizon Oil.
Another long episode!
WIth talk about why we sold Apollo Tourism again.
Howard Marks and the “Great Sag”.
Tony explains how to calculate a Discounted Cash Flow in detail.
We talk about our friend Torsten’s new bitcoin film “Cryptopia” and what we think about bitcoin as an investment.
Tony reveals his drink of the week.
And our analysis this week is Tap Oil.
In this week’s jam packed episode, we answer the following questions from new subscriber Tess in Melbourne:
1. During reporting season, how do you decide which companies to put through the checklist given there are 2000 or so listed companies on the ASX?
2. The AFR new 52 week high tables have not been available since July, is there any other place I can source this info or can you recommend an alternative strategy for picking stocks to analyse?
3. I would like to be able to perform my own financial strength analysis as I do not have stock doctor. Cameron went over this briefly in one of your earlier episodes but there are some gaps in my knowledge.
We also talk about the Sohn Hearts and Minds conference that’s happening this week as well as the Wilson Asset Management AGM.