QAV 815 — Tax On, Tax Off

QAV 815 Club Audio

 [00:00:00]

Cameron: Wel­come to QAV tk. This is, I think, 8 1 5. It’s the 15th of April, 2025. What a week tk? What a week it has been for, for every­body, real­ly. But

TK: Hmm.

Cameron: yeah, let’s just talk about investors. Uh, what, what a fun, fun week.

TK: Yeah. Well it has been at least, at least we got some of our mon­ey back from the week before in the mar­kets,

Cameron: Yeah, for now.

TK: Yeah, I guess more of Trump’s grand plan as being revealed as we spoke about last week, the grift.

Cameron: Well, we did call it the Grift last week, and then. He went on truth social and said, now is a [00:01:00] good time to buy. And two hours lat­er they announced they were the tar­iffs. Like you can’t be much more bla­tant about the grift than he is being.

TK: like the New York Stock Exchange is run by the A SX when it comes to cor­po­rate gov­er­nance and dis­clo­sures. Yeah.

Cameron: I mean, part­ly I don’t think he thinks beyond 10 sec­onds ahead. So prob­a­bly does­n’t think about, um, this is a crime. I should­n’t do it. But also gonna touch him right now? Like he’s already got all of the major law firms in the coun­try that, um, were, uh, sup­port­ing cas­es against him run­ning for their lives and pay­ing mil­lion dol­lar dona­tions to caus­es to try and stop him from doing what­ev­er that he has the pow­er to do.

He is got media com­pa­nies bow­ing down, um, know, uni­ver­si­ties [00:02:00] bow­ing down, every­one’s bow­ing down to the F right now out of fear for their lives and exis­tence. So inside of trad­ing, ah, added to the list of things I don’t care about this week.

TK: For some­one who said he could walk out onto Fifth Avenue and shoot some­one, get away with it, I don’t think a lit­tle bit of dis­clo­sure, um, incor­rect dis­clo­sure prac­tices is gonna wor­ry him.

Cameron: And that was before his first term. You know, that’s even the cult of Trump is, uh, even stronger today than it was then. So for peo­ple who haven’t been pay­ing atten­tion, let’s catch you up. What’s hap­pened in the last week?

TK: Not do we have to,

Cameron: What else are we gonna talk about? What is there to talk about? There’s noth­ing else to talk

TK: a cou­ple of things.

Cameron: You said you had noth­ing.

TK: I found some­thing when you start­ed talk­ing about Trump. I went la la la, la, la, la la.

Uh, well, at least the, uh, the almond farm­ers are, are hap­py [00:03:00] appar­ent­ly. Have you heard about them? Uh,

Cameron: No.

TK: stopped the biggest, uh, importer in, well, the biggest exporter into Chi­na of almonds comes from Cal­i­for­nia, and they’re now fac­ing what­ev­er it is, 95% tar­iffs, what­ev­er Chi­na’s

Cameron: 125%.

TK: isor. um, what time is it?

Yeah. And,

Cameron: Yeah,

TK: and so Chi­na’s now start­ing to strike con­tracts with Aus­tralian grow­ers to replace the, uh, Cal­i­forn­ian grow­ers. So good on you. Almond grows of Aus­tralia. out in front.

Cameron: it is your day, your time has arrived.

TK: Don’t stuff it

Cameron: Big almond, big almond’s. Been lob­by­ing for this for decades. Big Almond. There’s my episode title for this week, big Almond.

TK: Hmm.

Cameron: Oh God. Uh, yeah, so, so I guess like the big part of the sto­ry this week is obvi­ous­ly tar­iff, tar­iff, tar­iff, [00:04:00] uh, crazy lev­els of tar­iff. We talked about it last week, but then. Trea­suries, US trea­suries, that par­tic­u­lar­ly the 10 of the 30 years start­ed to spike. The 30 year near­ly hit 5%. It was the biggest spike since 1987. And then all of a sud­den paused the tar­iffs for 90 days. Uh, whether he was intend­ing to or not is hard to tell. admin­is­tra­tion is giv­ing lots of dif­fer­ent mes­sages.

They’re say­ing, oh, it was all part of the strat­e­gy all along, even though he’d been say­ing, and they’d been say­ing, there aren’t gonna be any paus­es. And then he him­self said, oh, the mar­ket was get­ting a bit yip­py and queasy over the bond rates. So he decid­ed to do it. So he says one thing, his admin­is­tra­tion says anoth­er thing. one knows what’s going on. It’s a com­plete clown show over there. But there has been ques­tions about who. start­ed sell­ing their US [00:05:00] trea­suries, and no one real­ly knows. Appar­ent­ly it takes some time for these things to get report­ed on, which seems strange to me being 2025 and the world of dig­i­tal track­ing every­thing and ai, we, we, we aren’t gonna know, but like dump of the JFK files. I did a bull­shit fil­ter episode about this a week or so ago. You know, 80,000 JFK files were dumped all PDFs, no index to them. And they’re not search­able. You can’t, you can’t say, you know, look up some­body’s name and see which arti­cles, which things meant noth­ing. Not search­able, not no index. They’re all just got long alpha numer­ic names.

There’s no, you know, like what the, what the hell is going on? 2025? You dumped these things, they’re not even search­able. That’s insan­i­ty. Any­way, uh, you can’t see who’s sell­ing their bonds. So the, the the­o­ries are that it was Chi­na.

TK: You

Cameron: The sec­ond largest, what

TK: Xi? No, not what? Not who? Jean. [00:06:00] Not, not Who’s on first?

Cameron: we’re not doing, AB and Costel­lo.

TK: Or George W. Who’s on the phone exact­ly? Mr. Pres­i­dent. Who? Who’s on the phone? Who’s

Cameron: I dun­no that one right? Is it a standup rou­tine? I missed some­where along the way. Okay. Um, so the the­o­ry at first and still is that some of it could have been Chi­na just demon­strat­ing that they have the US econ­o­my by the short­en and curlies. Yes. It’ll cause them pain if they dump their trea­suries. But are they will­ing to do that? Who knows? Some, I’ve been read­ing as, you know, lots of books on Chi­na and Chi­na’s long term strat­e­gy. I think I’m up to num­ber 10 now. And um, you know, there is a very. Big school of thought that says Chi­na’s been prepar­ing for this. In fact, one of the books I’m read­ing pub­lished by an Amer­i­can [00:07:00] who’s spent a lot of time over there, um, diplo­mat or some­thing, was say­ing this came book, book came out in 2019.

He said, some­where in the mid­dle of the 2020s was when it would come to a head and Chi­na would be ready to start to pull the rug out from under­neath the US econ­o­my. And here we are, 2025.

TK: read­ing arti­cles back in the nineties, I think. Yeah, cer­tain­ly a long time ago, 25 years ago, about this very fact when Chi­na start­ed to buy bonds and, and US trea­suries. of econ­o­mists point­ed out that they could do great dam­age to the econ­o­my, and that could be a long game on their part.

Um, if for noth­ing else, if they do decide to start sell­ing in a con­trolled man­ner, it should dri­ve the dol­lar down, the US dol­lar down, which makes their imports even attrac­tive to Amer­i­ca now. That’s before all the tar­iff dis­cus­sion came along, but, um, they were set­ting them­selves up to con­trol the mar­ket really.[00:08:00]

Cameron: Well, they have been sell­ing down for quite a few years now. They held 1.3 tril­lion in trea­suries a few years ago. They’re down now to like 780 bil­lion. So they, and they’ve been buy­ing less, which is appar­ent­ly puts pres­sure on trea­suries as well when Chi­na’s not in the mar­ket. But, uh, the oth­er the­o­ries are that it’s Japan, who’s the biggest hold­er of US trea­suries.

Uh, and then the oth­er the­o­ry is that it’s hedge funds. When the share mar­ket col­lapsed, they had to sell stuff to get some cash. So no one real­ly seems to know. But the idea that, I remem­ber when Hillary Clin­ton was Sec­re­tary of State. Uh, and she said, it’s hard to get tough with your banker or some­thing like that about Chi­na.

TK: Yeah. Right.

Cameron: Trump Trump’s start­ing to learn, maybe start­ing to learn that. Of course, it’s only one of the things that they’ve And they are sound­ing like the big boy in the room. They’re the adults in the room. They put their tar­iffs up to 125 and they said, look, we’re not tit for tat­ting [00:09:00] any high­er than that, real­ly, because it’s mean­ing­less at this point.

Uh, Trump wants to go high­er, he can do that. We’re just gonna do oth­er things like ban rare earth ele­ments, exports, et cetera, et cetera. And, and then Trump’s already start­ed to reverse that. He’s cre­at­ed an excep­tion for smart­phones and con­sumer elec­tron­ics and lap­tops and semi­con­duc­tors, which I believe are about a quar­ter of Chi­na’s exports to the us.

He’s already exemp­tions on, they’re still gonna have a 20% tar­iff, but not the 145% tar­iff.

TK: And

Cameron: It’s, uh.

TK: that ben­e­fit or do the Mag sev­en com­pa­nies. So there’s a bit of

Cameron: Well, yes,

TK: Yeah.

Cameron: but also Chi­na. Um, but real­ly it does­n’t mat­ter to Chi­na. I mean a great deal. I believe the US is about 25%. No, 15% exports goes to the us but it’s about 2% of the GDP and it’s down from three and a half per­cent of their [00:10:00] GDPA few years ago. So Chi­na’s been, know, doing their one belt or belt and road, or one road or what­ev­er, what­ev­er the hell it’s called these days. And bricks, you know, they’ve been build­ing bricks qui­et­ly behind the scene. Well, not so qui­et­ly, but build­ing it behind the scenes. So they’ve been diver­si­fy­ing their ex export mar­kets like lead­ing up to the day when they could see it com­ing. There was gonna be a decou­pling.

TK: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: Of the glob­al free trade, WTO, blah, blah, blah. they had to be posi­tioned to see it out. Um, who can, who can han­dle the most amount of pain for the longest is the big ques­tion here.

TK: We’ve had two weeks of pain from Trump already, and that’s enough I think. So hope­ful­ly, you know, Chi­na might be able to with­stand it a lot longer than we can. But look, again, it comes back to, you know, back to invest­ments. Yes. My port­fo­lio goes up and down every, every [00:11:00] day. I haven’t trad­ed yet dur­ing this whole process.

I dun­no if you’ve trad­ed much in the dum­my port­fo­lio, but, um,

Cameron: A cou­ple of things.

TK: it’s still busi­ness as usu­al real­ly, isn’t it? It’s, it’s always

Cameron: Yes.

TK: from things like, um, dra­mat­ic ris­es in inter­est rates, which we had after Covid, I would say. And, and per­haps, you know, if there’s tax changes that come in with a, with a new gov­ern­ment or after the elec­tion with the cur­rent gov­ern­ment, um.

The macro side of things is prob­a­bly the least of our wor­ries when we’re in invest­ing in stocks on the share mar­ket. It’s, it’s more about the indi­vid­ual com­pa­nies and, and their num­bers. That’s, that’s impor­tant. Real­ly.

Cameron: Yeah. Which is,

TK: com­pa­ny this week, but, um,

Cameron: do we need a com­mod­i­ty? Is there an arm and com­mod­i­ty price we need to look at?

TK: Yeah.

Pork bel­lies or

Cameron: By the way, I added those ones that you, um,

TK: Oh, steel,

Cameron: men­tioned in the notes, like biz, uh, CTP, [00:12:00] I think, and also I picked up IDA, which has been on the buy list the last cou­ple of weeks as a gold, uh, min­er, which I’ve added into our com­mod­i­ty lists.

TK: you.

Cameron: Uh, speak­ing of the port­fo­lio, so the dum­my port­fo­lio was down 0.22% in the last week when I checked it this morn­ing, ver­sus the bench­mark, which was up 3.78, for the finan­cial year, we’re up 9.5% per annum ver­sus 4.34 per annum for the bench­mark. I sold our par­cel of PPM on the 9th of April and bought some HLS and some RMS to replace it.

TK: Are you bought up? We

Cameron: The US bought,

TK: We got a, we put a red

Cameron: Hey.

TK: RMS for dis­clo­sure. Remem­ber we had a whole episode about it. You

Cameron: Yeah, I did, but then I for­got to put it in my notes. Shit, you know, it’s one of those [00:13:00] things I’ve had in my to-do list this week was what are those com­pa­nies that have the red flags that I need to put in my notes? God damnit.

TK: Yeah.

Cameron: Hold on a sec­ond. Ah. Red flag note. RMS. Can you remem­ber what the oth­er ones were?

TK: Uh, Helia Helia group, not he. Yes. mort­gage lender.

Cameron: That’s HLI. Okay,

TK: Uh, I

Cameron: cut. God dammit.

TK: the oth­er ones. They might have. Oh, FMG still has the red flag on it.

Cameron: Yeah, well, apart from that,

TK: Hap­pens to the best of US Care. It’s been a very dis­tract­ing week.

Cameron: and I was on hol­i­days.

TK: on hol­i­days. Yeah.

Cameron: Yeah. The US port­fo­lio was up 3% this week and is up 16% for the finan­cial year ver­sus neg­a­tive 2% for the s and p 500. [00:14:00] And I’m sit­ting on a lot of cash that I could­n’t invest last week when I ran a buy list. Um, actu­al­ly it was two weeks ago. I ran the last US buy, so I’ve run­ning anoth­er one this morn­ing. quite fin­ished doing it yet, but, um, prob­a­bly get rid of that cash. Uh, see­ing as most of the mar­ket up there has rebound­ed a bit in the next cou­ple of days. Ray Dalio. Tony says, don’t make the mis­take of think­ing that, what’s now this is, it’s a hard sen­tence to read. Don’t make the mis­take of think­ing that what’s now hap­pen­ing most­ly about tar­iffs. Um, it’s most­ly about Bit­coin. Did­n’t Ray tell us all to get into Bit­coin a cou­ple of years ago? Eh,

TK: son told him to.

Cameron: yeah, to be fair,

TK: he,

Cameron: mean, Bit­coin would’ve been, would’ve been a good invest­ment when he said that.

TK: for a lit­tle while, I don’t think he’s

Cameron: Well, two years ago I was at 45,000. Now that’s at a hun­dred, 128,000. So, you know,

TK: Yeah.[00:15:00]

Cameron: if it was two years ago, I don’t know exact­ly when we did that, but sto­ry, but, um, he wrote an arti­cle say­ing basi­cal­ly that the whole tar­iff thing with Trump is part of a big­ger pic­ture.

He says, we’re wit­ness­ing the his­toric break­down of the glob­al mon­e­tary, polit­i­cal, and geopo­lit­i­cal order that, you know, the US is drown­ing in debt. depen­dent on adver­saries like Chi­na. I’m not con­vinced Chi­na’s an adver­sary, but that’s the way it’s posi­tioned, um, for goods and, and for cred­it. And the polit­i­cal sys­tem is frac­tur­ing under inequal­i­ty and pop­ulist extrem­ism on, he would say both sides. I’m, I’m not sure if it’s both sides, but there’s cer­tain­ly, um, extreme beliefs on both [00:16:00] sides. Both sides hate each oth­er with a pas­sion.

TK: The cul­ture wars.

Cameron: And dom­i­nance is fad­ing. It’s being replaced by a raw pow­er based world. It’s good goody pop album, but I’m not sure if it’s a good thing for Amer­i­ca. Um, you like that album, raw Pow­er

TK: I,

Cameron: 1970.

1973.

TK: which, which track was on that? I don’t recall. Raw pow­er.

Cameron: Raw, raw pow­er, um,

TK: what the,

Cameron: all of it. It was, uh, pro­duced by Bowie

TK: okay.

Cameron: and had a very clean when Bowie did Trans­former for Lou. And then he did Raw Pow­er, and I think the Idiot for Iggy did a cou­ple of albums. Figi sort of did, did a Berlin in phase with Iggy as well sev­en­ties. And then Iggy re re uh, re engi­neered it, um, 10 or 20 years ago did like a hard­er, but it’s real­ly great.

Um, um, [00:17:00] am the World’s Fog Boy, the one who’s search­ing and destroy, search and destroy. Any­way.

TK: Okay.

Cameron: How was, where was I going with that? Oh yeah.

TK: The worlds here. The worlds evolv­ing

Cameron: The col­lapse of the col­lapse of trust. But you know, the big thing, the big sto­ry and cli­mate, he talks about cli­mate shocks and, and AI’s gonna dis­rupt every­thing and robots are gonna dis­rupt every­thing sys­temic. He’s pre­dict­ing sys­temic col­lapse and tran­si­tion and talks about, you know, if you go back into his­to­ry, and this is what I’ve been bang­ing on

TK: I don’t

Cameron: about for decades.

TK: col­lapse. I read the arti­cle this morn­ing.

Cameron: No.

TK: No.

Cameron: Okay. What’s your analy­sis of what he’s say­ing then?

TK: Well, it, what it remind­ed me of was, remem­ber a cou­ple of, a long time ago now, we, I did a show on the Shell Glob­al Plan­ning where

Cameron: Yeah.

TK: a long range plan and they have four sce­nar­ios, and then they pick a sce­nario and they start to posi­tion the, the, the ship [00:18:00] to sail on those waters. And their cur­rent think­ing, and this is going back a few years, was that the world was gonna decou­ple back into trad­ing blocks, which is pret­ty much what’s hap­pen­ing.

It’s Chi­na and the bricks, it’s the USA, it’s, um, Europe, what­ev­er they fin­ish up doing, et cetera, et cetera. So if you mean the world is being, world always being blown up in terms of free trade, then yeah, it, it is, it’s, it’s going back into where it was maybe. Well, cer­tain­ly before the Berlin War come down.

It kind of reminds me of that, that time of shift­ing trad­ing blocks and shift­ing alliances and shift­ing hege­monies. but I don’t think, well, I don’t know if Dalia meant it, but I did­n’t read that. He’s talk­ing about glob­al break­down. Um, he’s just say­ing, here’s how

Cameron: Well.

TK: think about this and posi­tion your­self going for­ward.

Cameron: He said the mon­e­tary eco­nom­ic order is break­ing down, that’s a break­down. He lit­er­al­ly says it’s break­ing down. [00:19:00] This sort of break­down occurs only about once in a life­time, but they have hap­pened many times in his­to­ry when sim­i­lar unsus­tain­able con­di­tions were in place. He’s say­ing it’s, we’re see­ing a clas­sic break­down of the major mon­e­tary, polit­i­cal, and geopo­lit­i­cal orders. So he is lit­er­al­ly say­ing the sys­tem is break­ing down a sys­temic break­down.

TK: Yeah, I, I’m not gonna argue with you on that score. I think sys­tem, as he describes it, can break down and we can still go on, you know, um,

Cameron: I.

TK: trad­ing with peo­ple, uh, invest­ing, um, hav­ing busi­ness­es that do well, et cetera, et cetera. So it’s just a, I I see it as a change in the hege­mo­ny and a change in the, the sta­tus quo rather than, you know, we’re all gonna go mad Max next week, I think.

I think he’s, he’s paint­ing a very dif­fer­ent

Cameron: I don’t think, no, I don’t think he’s say­ing it’s gonna be a dystopi­an col­lapse depend­ing on what hap­pens with cli­mate change and AI and robots, we dun­no. And [00:20:00] all of the bil­lion­aires, uh, mov­ing to their pri­vate, uh, uh, secu­ri­ty enclaves, no, Green­land and, uh, Yeah. Did I talk to you about Prax­is last week?

I think I did. Um, I’ve read about anoth­er one since then that they’re work­ing on, but any­way, that’s anoth­er sto­ry. But like the big issue that seems to be, I think the biggest thing that to me, that hap­pened in the last cou­ple of weeks with the tar­iffs and the US trea­suries. the sto­ries that I’m read­ing about, uh, read­ing are talk­ing about the end of the us being seen as reli­able.

TK: Oh, def­i­nite­ly.

Cameron: Right. Um, peo­ple includ­ing Chi­na, were buy­ing US trea­suries because it was seen to be reli­able. There was, the coun­try was always gonna pay its debts. It was always gonna be rea­son­ably well man­aged, rea­son­ably ratio­nal. And the glob­al mar­kets are going, [00:21:00] oh, maybe not,

TK: and the, and the

Cameron: any­more.

TK: rea­son­ably sta­ble too. I mean, the US dol­lar has been called the world default cur­ren­cy, so I think that’s been blown up in the last week as well.

Cameron: Yeah. So that’s gonna bring about big changes to busi­ness and life as we know it. Um, par­tic­u­lar­ly for Amer­i­cans.

TK: Maybe for Amer­i­cans. Yeah.

Cameron: I.

TK: But you know, Trump

Cameron: Yeah.

TK: it’s all okay and they’ll, they’ll drink the Kool-Aid. I’ll think

Cameron: Yeah.

TK: As we said off

Cameron: How you start?

TK: As we said off air

Cameron: Sor­ry. Yeah. Are you watch­ing the stu­dio yet?

TK: yeah.

Cameron: men­tioned Kool-Aid.

TK: the cur­rent, the episode. Yeah. Great.

Cameron: Kool-Aid? Yeah. I can’t wait to see the Kool-Aid film. I wan­na see the Kool-Aid film. saw the, the Zach Efron episode. Is that the most recent one?

TK: reel.

Cameron: great was that? Where he’s talk­ing to his, talk­ing to his phone and doing like the film noir

TK: yeah,

Cameron: nar­ra­tive when he’s [00:22:00] talk­ing to his,

TK: yeah. With, with the trench coat and the hat on. Yeah.

Cameron: yeah.

TK: Yeah.

Cameron: So clever. Such a great show. So well exe­cut­ed. It’s impres­sive. Yeah. Any­way, what were you say­ing? Kool-Aid?

TK: well, I mean, as an aside, my, my social feeds have been full of clips of Amer­i­cans con­fi­dent­ly talk­ing about how tar­iffs are good for them and how until now the world’s had a free ride on their back and it’s gonna change and blah, blah, blah. and you what they, I mean, they say it so con­fi­dent­ly, they say it loud­ly and they, you can see where they picked it up from, but it’s 180 degrees wrong eco­nom­i­cal­ly.

And then you’ll get arti­cle. don’t know if you post­ed it or, or some, or was in one of my oth­er but there was a post say­ing, uh, there was a farmer, dairy farmer in one of the north­ern states in Amer­i­ca who lived near the Cana­di­an bor­der, who had, for years, decades, bought his feed [00:23:00] his cat­tle from Cana­da.

And the lat­est, uh, lot lat­est truck­load turned up and there was a tar­iff bill attached to the invoice of a cou­ple of grand. And he’s, he’s like scratch­ing his head going, I thought the sell­er was sup­posed to pay this. Like, I can’t afford to pay this. And then, and then who­ev­er post­ed the arti­cle posts the same guy at a Trump ral­ly with a MAGA hat on.

So it’s just like you,

Cameron: Mm.

TK: they, they’ve drunk the Kool-Aid with­out know­ing what they bought.

Cameron: Well, the, the agri­cul­tur­al indus­try copped it pret­ty hard the first time around because of tar­iffs that Trump put on. He would’ve thought they would’ve learn, but, uh, appar­ent­ly not. Okay. So

TK: So

Cameron: big changes hap­pen­ing in the world.

TK: There’s, there’s gonna be huge trad­ing block shifts. The thing I liked about the arti­cle that he wrote, and I’m not nec­es­sar­i­ly a fan of Ray Dalia. I think he’s very, he, he, he’s good at

Cameron: I have picked that up. You’ve hint­ed at that over the years. Yeah. Yeah.

TK: of the stuff [00:24:00] he writes is very high lev­el and is com­plete­ly mean­ing­less to my invest­ing life.

So noth­ing against Ray Dalio, but he’s just, you know, I might as well be lis­ten­ing to CNN or you know, John Stevens or some­thing like that about, the econ­o­my. But the thing I liked about what he wrote about was he kind of pulled the cur­tain back on what’s been going on a bit like you did before about, uh, Chi­na’s the banker.

they’ve been lend­ing by buy­ing trea­suries. They’re lend­ing Amer­i­ca the mon­ey to come and buy Chi­nese goods. So been that cycle of debt and pur­chase, um, in the world and that’s what’s, you know, it could­n’t go on for­ev­er. And they’re start­ing to break down now. Um. That’s

Cameron: Well, that leads me to an arti­cle. It’s an arti­cle in the fin, uh, from April 10th, bat­tle hard­ened Chi­na can sur­vive Trump’s trade war, ex Envoy, uh, quot­ing Jeff Rabey, uh, unfor­tu­nate name Can­ber­ra’s, chief envoy to Bei­jing between [00:25:00] 2007 and 2011 said more fis­cal pump prim­ing and mon­e­tary eas­ing would ease the pain for the Chi­nese econ­o­my as Pres­i­dent Xi Jin­ping and his lieu­tenants use glob­al out­rage at Trump’s trade war to fos­ter clos­er trade rela­tions with devel­op­ing and advanced economies. Trump has put the glob­al econ­o­my tee­ter­ing on the edge of the reces­sion, and there’s no doubt that’s going to dam­age Chi­na’s domes­tic growth. Rab told the Aus­tralian Finan­cial Review, but Chi­na has laid the ground­work for a diver­si­fied trade base. They do busi­ness with every oth­er coun­try in the world.

And even with this tar­iff pause, Trump has just bro­ken trust with almost all of them. Uh, he says the world still believes that Chi­na makes t‑shirts and socks, but the real growth areas of their econ­o­my are in advanced tech­nol­o­gy like elec­tric vehi­cles and com­plex hard­er, uh, hard­ware. Chi­na will be hit, like the whole world will be hit, but it is spent years build­ing resilience into the econ­o­my.

This is enor­mous­ly irri­tat­ing to them, [00:26:00] but they can sur­vive it.

TK: I think they can, I think both coun­tries can, quite frankly, um, there, there might be dis­lo­ca­tion, there might be job loss, there might be peo­ple who hurt and come out bad from all this. But, uh, uh, short of them going to war against each oth­er phys­i­cal­ly, uh, it’s a, it’s a shift­ing of the pieces, I think.

Cameron: Hmm Hmm.

TK: And the oth­er thing that, you know, we haven’t talked about is what hap­pens to inter­est rates?

Um, if, uh, you know, as the, as. Once sit­u­a­tion sort of becomes a bit clear­er there’s no more 90 day paus­es on what the tar­iffs are gonna be, et cetera, et cetera, and we might know what stim­u­lus Chi­na’s giv­ing the, their econ­o­my, there might be a reduc­tion in inter­est rates in the US which will have anoth­er leg up on the stock mar­ket, um, most like­ly.

So it’s very much a, a sit­u­a­tion that’s in play,

Cameron: Because tar­iffs will cause infla­tion to go up, and so they’ll [00:27:00] reduce inter­est rates to try and.

TK: as, as, as Trump says, Amer­i­ca has a trade deficit. He’s just made that in some cas­es, 150% worse than what it is now. Of course, it’s gonna be

Cameron: Well, the, like the be before his rever­sal last week I was read­ing say­ing he was a genius because we talked about this on the episode last week. He was gonna tar­iffs, which means peo­ple were gonna buy less, which meant some­how that the inter­est rates were gonna go down and they’d be able to refi­nance their debt at cheap­er rates. But then the trea­suries went up, meant it was gonna cost them more to refi­nance

TK: Yep.

Cameron: their debt. And it’s sort of the whole thing about, oh, he’s such a finan­cial genius sto­ry, uh, dis­ap­peared.

TK: I think, I think, you know, to give him, he is due, [00:28:00] um, this, apart from I think being grift is, um, is one way of deal­ing with all the free trade anom­alies that have been going on in the world. You know, this tra­di­tion­al approach to it is to go and nego­ti­ate and spend years and years and years start­ing the i’s and cross­ing the T’s about, you’ll reduce your tar­iff on this and we’ll reduce our tar­iff on that, and we will gain access to your coun­try to sell this, and you’ll gain access to do that.

Um, Trump’s just gone, I’m gonna tax you all and then come and talk to me and we’ll, you know, if we do a deal, I can take the tar­iff away. That’s one way of doing it. It’s not, not the way you treat friends, but that’s the Trump way of doing it. And it’s a quick way of doing it too.

Cameron: It is also a quick way of com­plete­ly destroy­ing glob­al trust in the US and reliance on the US econ­o­my.

TK: Mm I have

Cameron: Um,

TK: get­ting back to invest­ing in com­pa­nies. I had a, uh, an update on the accent group that we [00:29:00] about a lit­tle bit recent­ly. So, uh. They have the Strate­gic Alliance with the Frasers Group. The House of Fras­er is a depart­ment store in the uk and there’s been a, a mar­ket release today about that.

So, ax one, which is on our buy list, uh, issued some shares, uh, at the price of a dol­lar 72, which is a slight dis­count, to their clos­ing price, uh, yes­ter­day. and there’s issu­ing those, uh. To fund the roll­out of the Sports Direct busi­ness, which is the, um, busi­ness that the Frass group owns and wants to start in Aus­tralia and is seen Accent one as a chan­nel for doing that accent.

One is a shoe store um, with a num­ber of dif­fer­ent brands. One of them, um, of course being sell­ing sport­ing shoes. So, it makes kind of sense that, um, that they have, uh, ex exper­tise in this area. So just let­ting peo­ple [00:30:00] know there that they are now, um. Issu­ing some shares. So it’s on the buy list.

If you’re gonna think about buy­ing, do some research and take it into account, uh, um, that there’s an issuance going on, and maybe have a look at what they’re say­ing about the future. A cou­ple of, um, high­lights as the CEO said that it could be about a six year roll­out. So we may not see the ben­e­fits of the Sports Direct busi­ness, um, to the bot­tom line of accent group for a while.

’cause obvi­ous­ly they’ve got­ta find the stores, they’ve got­ta set them up, they’ve got­ta set up the sup­ply chains, et cetera, et cetera. take time. Um, uh, even though sports Direct oper­ates online now, they don’t oper­ate in the retail space. Uh, and the CEO of the Accent group has said he’ll stay around for at least the first half of that.

So for three years to to bed that down as much as pos­si­ble. Um, they’re think­ing of, uh. Rolling out 50 sports direct stores over the next six years. sports Direct, um, owned brands such as Ever­last, Lons­dale, and [00:31:00] Schlesinger, as well as all the oth­er major brands that they’ll stock in the store. So, uh, yeah, we might see some dif­fer­ent brands on our retail land­scape.

and it’ll be inter­est­ing to see this roll­out goes against, uh, rebel Sport, which is an als. Also, anoth­er busi­ness­es, um, been on the buy list for a long time, uh, super retail group, which I own shares in, um, they’re a dom­i­nant play­er, so some­times a, uh, a new brand rolling out 50 stores, um, can heav­i­ly dis­count their prod­uct and take mar­ket share quick­ly, and some­times they get, um, swamped by the incum­bent.

So it’ll be inter­est­ing to see what hap­pens as they roll the stores out, watch the space.

Cameron: Hmm. Well, I’ve got some new sto­ries that came up in my, uh, news run today. Findy, our good friends at Findy have, uh, put out anoth­er that they [00:32:00] have, uh, com­plet­ed the $30 mil­lion acqui­si­tion of Bank It in a Strate­gic Expan­sion. I think we, we talked about this a while ago as, uh, pos­si­bly hap­pen­ing. But that’s been com­plet­ed through its major­i­ty owned sub­sidiary sub­sidiary Trans­ac­tion Solu­tions Inter­na­tion­al announced the suc­cess­ful com­ple­tion of its acqui­si­tion of Ban­quette Ser­vices for $30 mil­lion. The acqui­si­tion first announced in Jan­u­ary, 2025 is a crit­i­cal part of Fey’s strate­gic roadmap to scale its pres­ence in Indi­a’s fast evolv­ing dig­i­tal finan­cial ser­vices land­scape. So, uh, con­grat­u­la­tions to findy Share. Price has been, eh, not doing bad. It jumped up when this came out on, uh, the 9th of April from $3 80 to $4 28. [00:33:00] Come back a lit­tle bit since then, but there was a big, uh, big announce­ment for them. Con­grat­u­la­tions. If you hold findy, which I think, uh, I think I do. Do I have findy still? Findy, findy, findy, findy, findy.

TK: I think so. Nev­er You have it for a long time and did well out of it, but you, I don’t think it’s ever gone back below Cell price has it.

Cameron: Yeah. Let’s try­ing to look. Findy. No, that’s up 27% since I added it year ago. Uh, may last year would’ve thought it would’ve done a lot bet­ter like a thou­sand per­cent at some stage, but, uh, you go. It’s had a, had a top­sy-turvy year. 30% a year. Not too bad. Uh, CCG comms group, have we ever talked about them?

Tony,

TK: No,

Cameron: you recall?

TK: No.

Cameron: Hmm. They came up, they must be some­where on our [00:34:00] list. They came up as a press release, uh, a lead­ing, lead­ing glob­al provider of cloud com­mu­ni­ca­tions and secure work­place. Solu­tions announced a record break­ing rev­enue per­for­mance for March, 2025. Record break­ing, prob­a­bly not, not often that you, uh, you know, have rev­enue that’s record break­ing. you think they’ll end up in the Guin­ness Book of Records? Tony, for record break­ing rev­enue.

TK: I don’t think so. No, price is up a

Cameron: Real­ly

TK: today?

Cameron: good for them. I want to see if they’ve ever been on a bio list. Why are they my list of things?

TK: them.

Cameron: That’s his­tor­i­cal bio lists. CCG. Oh, there you go. Yeah. Yeah. A month or so ago, they were on our buy list and uh, yeah, so Feb­ru­ary they were on our buy list. Prob­a­bly around about, uh, I don’t know. Yeah. The time. This was ramp­ing up. [00:35:00] March, 2025. They’ve announced this was records. Who else? Uh, pti. You asked me for a while back about noti­fi­ca­tions of buy­backs. Are you still track­ing those?

TK: Par­ent, you’re doing a buy­back.

Cameron: PTI has announced, yeah. PTI have announced a buy­back. was yes­ter­day. uh, Tel­stra have announced to buy back.

TK: I own

Cameron: So add those.

TK: just to dis­close that. But it’s good to

Cameron: What about Tel­stra? And she’s in Tel­stra.

TK: No.

Cameron: Okay. Yeah, I have Peren in my super too. It’s up, it’s up 6%, so there’s that. Um, okay. Well that’s all I’ve got on my list of news arti­cles.

TK: have a, an announce­ment that’s just come through. I’ve been sit­ting here wait­ing to see if it did. It’s hit the A SX now, but, um, yes­ter­day I was appoint­ed to the [00:36:00] board of an A SX com­pa­ny and I was to, uh, to let the mar­ket, um, come through before I, uh, told you, uh, for full dis­clo­sure.

Cameron: I could have sh should I have bought or sold before this announce­ment came out.

TK: I haven’t checked the share price today.

Cameron: I’m ask­ing what you think the announce­ment will do to the share price. Will it go up or will it go down?

TK: think any­one will notice to be hon­est. Um,

Cameron: which com­pa­ny would this be?

TK: Kline Invest­ment Wealth. CIW. So, uh,

Cameron: I’ve heard of those.

TK: lis­ten­ers who’ve been around for a long time or rec­og­nize Climb as being the home of Roger Mont­gomery back in the day. It’s a val­ue invest­ing com­pa­ny. And, uh, John Aber­nethy, who’s

Cameron: I.

TK: chair uh, one of the cor­ner­stone investors, um, he’s been around for a long time in the val­ue invest­ing mar­ket as well, is the chair.

[00:37:00] So, uh, they, um, extend­ed an invi­ta­tion for me to join and I had my first meet­ing yes­ter­day.

Cameron: What’s the share price?

TK: Oh, I dun­no. I. Uh, 33 cents. CIW. Yeah.

Cameron: CIW. Um, oh, it’s gone down.

TK: Oh,

Cameron: Well, there you go. From 40 cents, uh, in Feb­ru­ary down to 33 cents today.

TK: Yeah, it was around 33, I think yes­ter­day. It’s been going

Cameron: Right,

TK: since, um, all the mar­ket pro­duc­tion start­ed and it’s a sell,

Cameron: right.

TK: um, uh, this is in no way any sort of indi­ca­tion for peo­ple to buy into the com­pa­ny. Um, but, uh, yeah, inter­est­ing to me. Um, Alex Hay, uh, my stock­bro­ker has been try­ing to get me onto a, uh, a fund man­ager’s board.

[00:38:00] Um, for a while now, and this one’s come through. So I’ve been meet­ing with, uh, them for a while, since last year and, uh, very pleased to, to be involved with them. One of the, uh,

Cameron: Wow.

TK: of val­ue invest­ing in Aus­tralia.

Cameron: Yeah. Con­grat­u­la­tions to them and to you.

TK: you.

Cameron: It’s very excit­ing.

TK: So we may have some­one on the show, I’ll talk to ’em about, uh, um, whether they can pro­vide some­one to come and talk about val­ue invest­ing with us and their take on what’s going on in the mar­ket.

’cause they also run US funds, inter­na­tion­al funds, bond funds, pri­vate cred­it, that kind of thing as well. So they’re on top of it.

Cameron: Right. And is Roger still involved?

TK: he left a long time ago when he set up his own fund.

Cameron: Yeah. Right.

TK: Yep. But, uh, yeah, he was their, uh, he may have been just their CIOI think he was also their MD for, for quite a while,

Cameron: Right.

TK: bit of a, it’s had a bit of a sto­ried career in the last sort of. Eight to 10 years, they a finan­cial [00:39:00] plan­ner, um, with the thought that they would pro­vide the funds that would be, uh, giv­en to the clients of the finan­cial plan­ner.

It did­n’t quite work out that way. And they, exit­ed the, the busi­ness and they just kind of putting things back into place as a val­ue investor since the exit of that busi­ness last year. Um, so there’s

Cameron: Right.

TK: been a few, um, per­ma­nent­ly years for, uh, past own­er­ship. But, um, yeah, back in the hands of John Aber­nethy as direc­tor as sor­ry, chair, and, um, you know, very much in the school of val­ue invest­ing again.

Cameron: So what do you think your role is going to be? What do you hope to bring to the table in this sort of a role?

TK: Yeah, it’s an inter­est­ing, one day they were on the look­out for an inde­pen­dent direc­tor. Um. They, you know, they had one, there’s one oth­er inde­pen­dent direc­tor on there who’s a tax spe­cial­ist, but they want­ed some­one with, um, cor­po­rate expe­ri­ence because a lot of the work in their near term run­way is to look at, uh, [00:40:00] acquir­ing some of the busi­ness­es that are com­ing up, fund man­age­ment busi­ness­es com­ing up on the mar­ket almost every day at the moment.

Since, um, since the tar­iffs have come in, there’s a lot of peo­ple who are say­ing, this is just get­ting too hard and they’re gonna throw it in. Um, and they’re putting their busi­ness­es up for sale. So there’s a lot of acqui­si­tion going on in the space. Um, obvi­ous­ly I. I think we can do some­thing with them and they can do some­thing with us.

Um, if it’s just as sim­ple as cross-pro­mo­tion or, um, you know, get access to, some of the stuff we talk about, um, and mar­ket and, and we get access to some of the stuff that they talk about in mar­ket that might be help­ful, espe­cial­ly on the US side of things. Um, yeah. But, uh, at this stage it’s all I’m there to do is to be an inde­pen­dent direc­tor, to rep­re­sent the, the small share­hold­ers and to pro­vide some cor­po­rate expe­ri­ence to their, um, dis­cus­sions around their future.

Cameron: Well, very excit­ing.

TK: is very, it is very excit­ing actu­al­ly. They’ve got a good, a good team there at the moment who’s, [00:41:00] um, you know, real­ly shak­ing things up, which is great.

Cameron: Well, I’m tempt­ed to, uh, I had stuff back to the US about the moron pre­mi­um, but we don’t have time to do that because you’ve got­ta pull pork to do.

TK: I do, yes. And we have a, uh, do we have any ques­tions or was that the ques­tion? To do a full talk?

Cameron: The ques­tion was from Trent. Will you do a pulled pork on CWPI?

TK: comes out of It’s been going for, for quite a while now, about 30 years. Uh, and they’ve now sort of over time, um. Com­ing to the oth­er parts of Aus­tralia, not just the Perth mar­ket. So wa I think about half their busi­ness, but they’ve diver­si­fied into oth­er as well. List­ed it back in, um, [00:42:00] 1994 and was estab­lished in 1987.

Uh, what else can I say about them? Um, stock price went up fol­low­ing its results announce­ment last month, uh, ’cause they were good results. But, um, has drift­ed low­er recent­ly with all the going on in the world with, um, share mar­ket move­ments. Uh, mas­sive increase in rev­enue and prof­it. This half due to a large num­ber of set­tle­ments, um, in FY 25 ver­sus FY 24.

And they have the pipeline in place that appears to sup­port this trend to con­tin­ue. So in the half results rev­enue was up 59% and NPA MPA was up near­ly 600%. big book record break­ing results for

Cameron: Record break­ing.

TK: See, see Woods Prop­er­ty Group. Uh, but yeah, no good, good num­bers. Record pre-sales, which is one of the Im impor­tant things, uh, ’cause they, that helps fund their devel­op­ments.

Um, record pre-sales of 640 odd mil­lion dol­lars. Has that 31st of Decem­ber, 2024, [00:43:00] uh, ver­sus 525 mil­lion in the pri­or uh, peri­od, which is up 22%. So it all. Going well for them. A lot of tail­winds in this space at the moment. They, even though they’re very diver­si­fied and play across all areas of prop­er­ty devel­op­ment and all areas of price points, they do a skew towards first home buy­ers.

Um, with house and land pack­ages, with, um, sub lot devel­op­ments, uh, uh, on the fringes of urban areas and with build­ing apart­ments and town­hous­es. there is a short­age, um, in that mar­ket, uh, ever since prob­a­bly the last two or three years since Covid. Um, and that’s, I. You know, part­ly being a, because it’s dif­fi­cult.

Uh, there’s been a, um, uh, less builders in the mar­ket, less, uh, labor in the mar­ket, um, and also the rise in price. But there’s a gen­er­al­ly a a, you know, depend­ing on who you lis­ten to, a cou­ple of hun­dred thou­sand house short­falls in [00:44:00] the sup­ply to meet demand in that, in that kind of mar­ket. So that’s not gonna go away soon.

And that’s, um, shoring up their, their busi­ness, uh, to con­tin­ue doing well over the next cou­ple of years. Um, they are provid full year impact growth of at least 10% for FY 25. So, um, that’s a good thing. And they’re also say­ing with fur­ther prof­it growth antic­i­pat­ed in FY 26. So cer­tain­ly see­ing no abate­ment in this imbal­ance between sup­ply and demand and the mar­kets they oper­ate in.

Uh. They’re, call­ing out that in most of the states they work in Demand is strong. They’re see­ing a bit of weak­ness in Vic­to­ria, um, with the state of the prop­er­ty mar­ket there. And the econ­o­my in gen­er­al in Vic­to­ria is a bit weak com­pared to the rest of the coun­try. So being a devel­op­er with geo­graph­ic Spread is help­ing them.

they cur­rent­ly have 37 projects under devel­op­ment around Aus­tralia. So they’re, they’re, they’re about a 400 mil­lion mar­ket cap. Um, so they, grown [00:45:00] a lot since I, I mean, I own these shares, um, a long time ago. I haven’t bought them more recent­ly, but I, I found them of inter­est, um, a num­ber of years ago, and they were much small­er back then.

So they, they, they’ve been grow­ing well. Uh, what else can I say about them? Um. They have 10,000 lots, uh, to sup­port future earn­ings. Um, they’re in town­hous­es, apart­ments, res­i­den­tial, uh, sor­ry, retire­ment vil­lages, some com­mer­cial. so yeah, right across the, the water­front real­ly in the, in the prop­er­ty space.

of the things that inter­est­ed me in what they were doing was, um, they’re, they’re keep­ing debt under con­trol, which is good, but they’re still get­ting some growth. And one of the ways they’ve been able to do that is to part­ner with, um, with large com­pa­nies and pen­sion funds. I. Um, from over­seas. So, uh, they call it out as a, as a strat­e­gy that they’re pri­or­i­tiz­ing.

And cur­rent­ly they have some part­ner­ships in place, uh, one [00:46:00] with, uh, QIC, which is the, um, I think it’s the Queens­land Invest­ment Com­mis­sion. Um, so large sort of, uh, Queens­land, uh, invest­ment, uh, part­ner there. And the oth­er one is Tokyo Gas Real Estate. again, anoth­er large, uh, Japan­ese, um, invest­ment, uh, com­pa­ny in real estate and they’re, they’re doing 50 50 joint ven­tures with them, um, which enables ’em to tack­le some real­ly big devel­op­ments but not have to take on a lot of debt to, be able to do that on their own.

So it’s, it’s inter­est­ing sort of, um, play. I thought. Uh, the oth­er inter­est­ing thing I, I came across on their web­site, um, is that they offer a share­hold­er dis­count. So eli­gi­ble share­hold­ers may receive 5% dis­count on land and two and a half per­cent dis­count on hous­es, town­hous­es, apart­ments, and com­mer­cial units and cedar Woods projects gen­er­al­ly for hold­ing a thou­sand shares for six months.

So if you are in the mar­ket as a first home buy­er in par­tic­u­lar, but I guess any home buy­er, um, [00:47:00] you might wan­na inves­ti­gate hold­ing some shares for six months and get­ting a dis­count on one of their, uh, their, um, offer­ings. Good, good com­pa­ny on the UAB num­bers front, they’re on the buy list. Um, stock price for this analy­sis is $5 11.

Uh, which is less than the con­sen­sus tar­get above IV one of 3 21, but less than IV two of $5 30. Stock Doc­tor finan­cial health and Trend is strong and steady. Wikipedia rank it very high­ly on the qual­i­ty side of things. F score of eight out of nine and a qual­i­ty rank­ing score of 90, um, out of their list of a hun­dred.

So that’s pret­ty good over­all rank­ing in stock. Edia is 95 and it, it is prob­a­bly depressed, uh, because they’ve had some, uh, fall­back in their share price. So they, they have a low momen­tum score of 66 in stock Edia. Um, so they’re, they’re basi­cal­ly a Josephine on, on our, uh, list as well. But that, um, comes off the, the big stock [00:48:00] appre stock price appre­ci­a­tion fol­low­ing their ou uh, their results announce­ment.

So they have had some strength up until recent­ly. Yield is cur­rent­ly 5.27%, which is less. They’re now cut off, which is around 6.1%. But it’s still a rea­son­able yield. equi­ty per share is $5 60, so we can buy this com­pa­ny at less than book val­ue and also less than net tan­gi­ble assets. So uh, that’s a good thing.

on the man­u­al­ly entered data front PE is, uh, just over eight times, which is the low­est in three years. Prop calf is 6.25 times, which is, um, which is very low. Uh. What else? Um, the, on the man­u­al­ly entered side of things, he has an own­er, founder. So, uh, a chap by the name of William Hayes is a co-founder of Cedar Woods and by trade as an archi­tect and town plan­ner.

Uh, has had worked in the US prop­er­ty devel­op­ment mar­ket before return­ing to Aus­tralia in [00:49:00] 1975 estab­lish­ing a com­pa­ny called Hames Char­lie Aus­tralia, and town plan­ning con­sult­ing com­pa­ny. So the, the founders still on the board, still has a cor­ner­stone invest­ment, been around for a long time, which is impor­tant in this game because prop­er­ty devel­op­ers of cycli­cal busi­ness­es, And we score it as, uh, as hav­ing a one for an own­er founder. They also have the chair of the com­pa­ny as a sub­stan­tial hol uh, share­hold­er. A guy called Robert Brown. Um, but he joined the board ear­ly on, not quite when they, when they first start­ed. So he’s not real­ly a founder, even though he is been there for a long time.

I think since about 1990 get a hold, near­ly a quar­ter of the stock. So, um, uh, we give it a big tick for that. Uh, it does­n’t have con­sis­tent­ly increas­ing equi­ty. Um, what else can I say? Prop calf, 6.25. I’ve men­tioned stock doc­tor reports, fore­cast earn­ings per share growth, which seemed to, to me to con con­tra­dict what the com­pa­ny CEO said [00:50:00] in the, uh, results, uh, announce­ment where he fore­cast­ed 10% earn­ings per share growth.

So I can’t quite under­stand why stock doc­tor is say­ing that. Um, if we put the neg­a­tive earn­ings per share fore­cast growth over the PE ratio, we get a neg­a­tive. So we give the neg­a­tive one. um, this com­pa­ny share price, or sor­ry, QAV score may actu­al­ly increase. Uh, I think, um, I. Stock Dr. May change that neg­a­tive fore­cast, uh, for earn­ings per share growth, uh, with time.

And it could just be that, um, uh, there’s not many bro­kers fol­low­ing this com­pa­ny. So, um, some­one might get round to updat­ing their fore­cast and hav­ing it feed into the data, um, some­times soon. So that’s, um, that’s that the QAV, uh, all up score qual­i­ty is 13 out of 16, which is 81%. And the QAV score of 0.13.

Again, a lit­tle bit depressed by that neg­a­tive, um, earn­ings per share fore­cast, and that may actu­al­ly rise, um, to a bit high­er, [00:51:00] so towards the bot­tom of our buy­er list. But, um, but still pret­ty sol­id, uh, espe­cial­ly on the qual­i­ty side of things, the risks and, um, pos­i­tives for this com com­pa­ny. It isn’t a sweet spot for what it’s doing now, as I said before.

As of the week­end, both polit­i­cal par­ties are falling over them­selves to help first home buy­ers. Um, if either side is either elect­ed or reelect­ed, there’s gonna be, even more, um, demand in that mar­ket, which will help a com­pa­ny like this. So I see that gonna do well, um, after the elec­tion. and look, you know, what I’ve seen over, over the years is that when­ev­er a gov­ern­ment does some­thing to help buy­ers into a mar­ket, what­ev­er dis­count is going or what­ev­er help is going to the home buy­er, it ends up in the devel­op­er’s pock­et.

I remem­ber, I remem­ber back in the days when Ken­net came in and to try and revi­tal­ize the build­ing of apart­ments, um, he removed stamp duty off new, [00:52:00] um, dwellings for a peri­od. I remem­ber think­ing, that’s great. ’cause I was in the mar­ket for a house back in the eight­ies and went along to see, um, I.

If I like the, the offer­ings and basi­cal­ly all the prices have been raised by the amount of the stamp duty dis­count. So, that was pret­ty evi­dent when you com­pare them to exist­ing apart­ments, um, in the mar­ket. That may hap­pen again, prob­a­bly will, in which case, um, see the woods ben­e­fits. but they, but prop­er­ty devel­op­ers do have their risks.

Even though this one’s well man­aged, it’s been around for a long time. Um, if there is a gen­er­al down­turn in the econ­o­my, if inter­est rates, you know, if bonds go up, uh, go down and, and their inter­est rates go up, two things will impact, um, neg­a­tive­ly. Uh, if there are more labor short­ages and they, they, um, strug­gle to, uh, com­plete con­tracts, et cetera, that may have impacts on them.

If mate­r­i­al costs increase because of tar­iffs or what­ev­er, uh, some­how that might flow into our mar­ket as a cost increase, that will have an impact on them. But I think, you know. Giv­en where things are. I think the bal­ance of [00:53:00] prob­a­bil­i­ties is they’re gonna have tail­winds for a cou­ple of years this space.

I, uh, my gut feel is if things get out of hand, um, in the us IE there’s a reces­sion that inter­est rates will come down. Um, there’s a bit of pres­sure on the RBA now to reduce inter­est rates. I think per­son­al­ly, I think they’re hold­ing off all the elec­tion takes place and as a board meet­ing a cou­ple of, or about a week after the elec­tion, which may be their first sort of clear air to, to, um, drop inter­est rates with­out favor­ing one side of pol­i­tics over the oth­er dur­ing the elec­tion cam­paign.

But if inter­est rates, if there are inter­est rate cuts, which the mar­ket sus­pects there will be, then that will help Cedar Woods prop­er­ty as well. So, um, good on you, Trent, for call­ing this one out. I think it’s prob­a­bly in a sweet spot and it’s got a, um, a bit of run­way to, to go to, um, to, to come. So have a look at CWP.

Cameron: But it’s cur­rent­ly a Josephine.

TK: Yeah.

Cameron: Hmm.

TK: And to be fair, I think most stocks are Josephine now, aren’t they? Um, [00:54:00] there’s

Cameron: Uh.

TK: been a lot of down­turn in the share mar­ket in the last week or so, even though it’s turned up again, they haven’t quite got­ten back to where they were.

Cameron: Yeah, I was buy­ing stuff, uh, yes­ter­day and it was hard find­ing stuff that was avail­able, but not, not impos­si­ble.

TK: Hmm.

Cameron: Hmm. Alright. Thank you Tony. That brings us to after hours. What have you been, what have you been watch­ing

TK: Well,

Cameron: Apart from the Stu­dio

TK: you, uh, you put me onto Black Mir­ror and I, I did get a ref­er­ence for one of the episodes. Have you seen USS Cal­lis­ter One of the Black Mir­ror episodes,

Cameron: Clas­sic. Yeah, that’s from a cou­ple of sea­sons ago. Yeah.

TK: a, a fol­low up to it in this cur­rent sea­son as

Cameron: Oh right.

TK: Yeah.

Cameron: haven’t seen the cur­rent sea­son. Tay­lor called me from LA this morn­ing, said he watched one episode. That was pret­ty good. But, uh, yeah, they’re usu­al­ly good. Like Black Mir­ror rarely miss­es. The episodes are real­ly, usu­al­ly [00:55:00] very well craft­ed.

TK: Hmm. Any­way, so my first sort of toe dip in black mir­ror was good, so thanks

Cameron: You haven’t seen the rest of it?

TK: I, I’ve seen

Cameron: Oh,

TK: episodes and some­times I sort of get in, don’t get into them and turn them off. But that one was a great one,

Cameron: mm

TK: but

Cameron: okay. There you go.

TK: lov­ing mob land. Have you caught up with that yet?

Cameron: No, tell me about that again. What’s that?

TK: so it’s the lat­est, uh, direc­to­r­i­al effort from Guy Richie and

Cameron: Oh, right.

TK: I haven’t real­ly

Cameron: I.

TK: his last cou­ple. Um, the one about the ori­gins of the SASI think was ter­ri­ble and paled into paled in com­par­i­son to the SBS Rogue Heroes Series. Um. But this one’s fan­tas­tic. It stars Tom Hardy, who, who plays the kind of enforcer for the mob in Lon­don.

p Bros­nan as the Irish, um, mob boss and, uh, and, uh, what’s her name [00:56:00] as the wife. Um, for­got­ten her name now from the Cook, the wife, the, the Cook, the Thief, the wife and his lover. Um, Helen, uh, Miran. Thank you. I knew it would come to me after a

Cameron: Wow.

TK: great cast,

Cameron: Dame Hell and Maren. Mm.

TK: strong, um, plot. Real­ly good.

Um,

Cameron: Film or, OR series?

TK: so it’s like, and it’s releas­ing every week. So the first three are out at the moment on Para­mount Plus, I think unfor­tu­nate­ly. So it’s a, got­ta sub­scribe to, to see it. but yeah, well worth the sub­scrip­tion, at least until the series fin­ish­es. Uh, and, and the thing I liked about it was, um, I did­n’t even pick up.

It was a Richie, Project ’cause he’s kind of almost been a self par­o­dy of him­self in the last kind of efforts where every­thing’s kind of car­toony, vio­lence and flashy and styl­ized. And haven’t quite tak­en to it. But, um, this one’s grit­ty. And Tom Hardy’s just down in there, knows how, knows every­one, knows how to make things hap­pen, knows who [00:57:00] to call.

know, cops on the tape, uh, nurs­es in emer­gency rooms, um, just kind of prowl­ing through Lon­don solv­ing prob­lems. It’s fan­tas­tic.

Cameron: Did you watch The gen­tle­man, the series,

TK: Gen­tle­man was

Cameron: the

TK: which was prob­a­bly not as good as the movie, but the series. And the series was­n’t bad. But still get­ting into that kind of

Cameron: Hmm.

TK: over the top sort of, um, style.

Cameron: It was a bit over the top. Yeah. I enjoyed it though.

TK: it was good. this is dif­fer­ent. This is back to being grit­ty. Um, well

Cameron: Hmm

TK: Yeah.

Cameron: hmm. stock,

TK: Yeah,

Cameron: uh, well, I will check that out when I get a Para­mount sub­scrip­tion again, one day I just got a binge sub­scrip­tion again after not hav­ing one for a long time to watch. The lat­est sea­sons of the Right­eous Gem­stones, which have just land­ed. And White Lotus new sea­son of that is out. Which Stars?

Wal­ton Gog­gins, who I’m a [00:58:00] big fan of since he

TK: in sea­son one of the sea­sons of White Lotus, was­n’t he?

Cameron: No, no, he’s in right­eous gem­stones,

TK: I thought he was also in White

Cameron: so Oh, this new sea­son? Yeah. I thought you said one of the oth­er sea­sons. Yeah, he’s in this sea­son of White Lotus. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Play­ing two com­plete­ly dif­fer­ent char­ac­ters. Could­n’t be fur­ther apart, but uh,

TK: or some­thing in the In the rice

Cameron: yeah, Bil­ly baby Bil­ly’s bub­ble bon­ers. Come on now. When that last sea­son came out with that, that was our catch­phrase in this house for ages.

Come on now. on now. That’s what he says all the time. Come on now. Yeah, no, I love, I love a bit of white, lotus full of, uh, hor­ri­ble, rich peo­ple. Um, but great, great cast as always. They’ve got, um, uh, what’s her face, um, Park­er Posey

TK: Oh, right.

Cameron: one of the rich wives who turns up and she’s doing some crazy accent from, I don’t know, some­where deep south.

Uh, Chris­sy said it sounds like [00:59:00] her, uh, step, uh, moth­er, uh, not step­moth­er. Uh, yes, step­moth­er. Um, got this real sort of draw­ing south­ern accent. And, uh, Wal­ton Gog­gins, of course, he plays a seedy sort of char­ac­ter. And any­way, that’s a bit of fun.

TK: for­get, Mr. Good­man, he’s in it too, isn’t he?

Cameron: I’m talk­ing about White Lotus.

TK: I thought you’re talk­ing about the right­eous gem­stones. Okay.

Cameron: Oh. Have you seen any of the lat­est sea­son of the Right­eous Gem? Setss

TK: the shorts and clips.

Cameron: Good­man’s Good­man’s retired to Flori­da. He is liv­ing on a boat in Flori­da. He is got, he got a long hair. He’s wear­ing, he’s, he’s gone all Mar­gar­i­taville sleep­ing with hoes and just drink­ing and fish­ing on his boat and off the Flori­da Keys or some­thing.

It’s pret­ty fun­ny. Uh, what else have I got for you? Paul Pork was,

TK: Dif­fer­ent, dif­fer­ent world down

Cameron: Oh, did you watch the, [01:00:00] did,

TK: The

Cameron: did you watch the Nick Cave

TK: Yes.

Cameron: con­cert I sent you?

TK: very good.

Cameron: How great was that? Speak­ing of home­less men, War­ren Ellis looks more and more like a guy sleep­ing under a bridge every year.

TK: Yeah. I’m sure I could have walked past him in King’s Cross when I was liv­ing there and, yeah. Look the oth­er way. Mm

Cameron: But he’s so great. He’s play­ing some lit­tle Cas­sio key­board for the first cou­ple of tracks and then he pulls the vio­lin out and does some big screech­ing solo and yeah, just great. And Nick, I was talk­ing to my mate, Michael Seward’s, um, guy who runs the bus com­pa­ny is down in Mel­bourne now. Um,

TK: Sky

Cameron: owns all the bus things. Was that? Yeah, they’ve changed their name. Uh. But, uh, I was talk­ing to him the oth­er day about just how, know, we’ve been fans of Nick Cave since, I don’t know my case, prob­a­bly the 90, ear­ly nineties. I guess I got into Nick Cave Red right hand and all those sorts of things. But [01:01:00] how he’s sort of become this like reli­gious icon now in his con­certs.

It’s, it’s just amaz­ing trans­for­ma­tion from I know Boys next door or birth­day par­ty or what­ev­er to some dan­ger­ous drug­gie, punk to reli­gious icon where he is up on stage. It’s almost like a reli­gious revival kind of thing.

TK: in that clip you sent me with the, with the big pro­jec­tor at the back, you know, with the, some of the lyrics about God being played. Yeah.

Cameron: Yeah. From Wild God. And, and he’s got like, his back­up singers are dressed like a gospel choir and he’s like doing the full thing. It’s fan­tas­tic. He’s done real­ly well.

TK: But yeah, I mean, I’ve, I, the, one of the first film clips I record­ed on VHS when I got a video record was the Boys Next Door. Um, yeah, that, what was it called? The, Sui­cide, but the oth­er one, the, um, the instru­men­tal with the sacks [01:02:00] was fan­tas­tic.

Cameron: Mm

TK: Yeah. And then went to see the birth­day par­ty, which was out there.

Very dif­fer­ent sort of expe­ri­ence. Um.

Cameron: Oh, wow.

TK: Amaz­ing con­cert and, uh, and then to see what he’s become, it’s, it’s great. Real­ly. I mean, the, the qual­i­ty of the music now is fan­tas­tic. Yeah.

Cameron: He, he sort of turned him­self into some sort of of John­ny Cash and Leonard Cohen, and I don’t know who else I’d throw in there, but, uh, it’s, yeah, it’s tremen­dous. Um. Uh, fun­ny because then I put on Dumb and Dumb­er yes­ter­day I was try­ing to get Fox to watch Dumb and Dumb­er with me. Could­n’t get him to sit down long enough to watch it.

But

TK: JD or and Elon,

Cameron: yeah, that is the Dumb and Dumb­er rou­tine. But, um, at one pla Red right hand comes on, um, Jim Cur­ry’s walk­ing down the street and they’re using red right hand as the back­ing [01:03:00] track for it, which I was like, wow. I did­n’t real­ly sur­prised that the Far­ley broth­ers would’ve known who Nick Cave was in 1994 or when­ev­er that came out.

So they were obvi­ous­ly some­body, or their music direc­tor had their fin­ger on the pulse of what was cool in the ear­ly nineties.

TK: did Fox think of it?

Cameron: He did­n’t sit around. He was too inter­est­ed in watch­ing, I don’t know, Minecraft, YouTubes or some­thing you. Uh, well that’s all I got for you TK this week. I think, uh, I’ve got­ta go.

I’ve got a kung fu class to get to.

TK: good.

Cameron: Oh, you got a horse that retired? You had in your notes. Per­fect.

TK: ect, so we had ECT and Dou­ble Mar­ket, both ran on the week­end and did hor­ri­bly bad. Uh, we’ve since found Dou­ble Mar­ket has pulled up with a ham­string prob­lem, so we under­stand that that was

Cameron: I

TK: why she did­n’t per­form. So she’s out for prob­a­bly a cou­ple of, a cou­ple of months at least. [01:04:00] Uh, and we’ll come back as a 4‑year-old prob­a­bly in the spring.

And, and ECT is now gonna go to the Sails and be sold as a brood man in May and Syd­ney. So I’ll be head­ing up there to, um, go to the sale and sell a horse.

Cameron: I have a board meet­ing you gonna Syd­ney for all your board meet­ings.

TK: We had one in Mel­bourne yes­ter­day. Um, and I will get up to Syd­ney at some stage for

Cameron: I.

TK: but we’ll do some by Microsoft teams as well. com­pa­ny. Yeah, they’re all over Aus­tralia. So the MDs in Ade­laide and. See their chairs in Syd­ney and the CIOs in Mel­bourne. So they, they’re used to,

Cameron: Wow.

TK: um, either or fly­ing in or doing it online.

Mm-hmm.

Cameron: Alright. Well, very good. Well, thank you tk. Thanks for the, for turn­ing up and, uh, for remind­ing me that I should care less about macro­eco­nom­ics.

TK: Yes.

Cameron: I spent so much time over the last week try­ing to [01:05:00] under­stand what’s going on. I come on and you just go, ah.

TK: Well, you, I think, I think it’s always good to know what’s going on. very hard to know what’s going on. I don’t even think econ­o­mists ful­ly under­stand it. ’cause there’s so many leavers and pul­lies and mov­ing parts. Um, that’s why I’ve just learned to focus on my port­fo­lio and focus on the buy­er list.

Cameron: Focus on what’s real.

TK: What you can con­trol.

Cameron: Noth­ing. Not even the atoms com­ing from this uni­verse. You told me off air.

TK: no, they’re real. I, I

Cameron: Oh, okay. But the idea that they came from this uni­verse is the bit you don’t believe.

TK: One of the great, ques­tions in physics is if you live in a uni­verse where mat­ter can’t be cre­at­ed, how did the uni­verse come into exis­tence? Uh, I can’t answer that. That’s for a dif­fer­ent pod­cast.

Cameron: I need more weed to do that. I have to do that pod­cast.

TK: [01:06:00] Okay.

Cameron: bud­dy.

TK: Thank you.

Cameron: You have a good week.[01:07:00]