QAV 806 — The Reilly Indicator

QAV 806 Club Audio

[00:00:00] Cameron Reil­ly: Wel­come back to QAV. TK, this is, uh, episode, uh, some­thing? 806. Uh, we’re record­ing this on the 11th of Feb­ru­ary, 2025. How’s, how’s life in, uh, Cape Schanck been, TK?

[00:00:26] Tony Kynas­ton: busy. Still, still unbox­ing, still unpack­ing, still try­ing to set our­selves up. Busy, busy, busy.

[00:00:33] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

[00:00:34] Tony Kynas­ton: end­ing.

[00:00:35] Cameron Reil­ly: No, that’s uh, life in a move, right?

[00:00:39] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:00:41] Cameron Reil­ly: What about out­side of that? You’re play­ing some golf, you got, you’re fit­ting that in, got time?

[00:00:45] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. So I’ve been, um, going out a cou­ple of nights a week after din­ner and, uh, rac­ing around in my golf cart before it gets dark. Cause it’s not stark here. I think sun­sets around eight 30 at the moment, so I can get, get round pret­ty eas­i­ly, have the course to myself. Um, yeah, it’s good fun. I real­ly enjoy it.

[00:01:03] Cameron Reil­ly: Do you lis­ten to music or pod­casts when you play by your­self?

[00:01:07] Tony Kynas­ton: Nah, just com­mune, just com­mune with nature.

[00:01:10] Cameron Reil­ly: Love­ly.

[00:01:11] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:01:12] Cameron Reil­ly: You get kan­ga­roos and stuff like that at that time of night on the, yeah?

[00:01:15] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:01:17] Cameron Reil­ly: Do you aim for them or?

[00:01:19] Tony Kynas­ton: No, try and avoid them. Yeah, there’s a cou­ple of mobs. Camped on the course and, uh, I’m sure that there would­n’t be a prob­lem, but I always, you know, go past very slow­ly, keep my hands where they can see them.

[00:01:34] Cameron Reil­ly: Right.

[00:01:36] Tony Kynas­ton: But gen­er­al­ly, like, once you start to approach them, they hop off.

[00:01:39] Cameron Reil­ly: Do they steal the balls and stick them in their pouch?

[00:01:44] Tony Kynas­ton: No, that’s nice. That’s a nice part of it. You see the occa­sion­al echid­na. Um,

[00:01:49] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, real­ly?

[00:01:51] Tony Kynas­ton: oh yeah.

[00:01:51] Cameron Reil­ly: Damn, I’ve only seen an echid­na in the wild once. Chris­sy and I, like 15 years ago, we were dri­ving coun­try out here some­where and I screeched to a halt. Saw an echid­na walk­ing down the side of the road and it was the only time I’ve ever seen one. It was amaz­ing! Incred­i­ble to see.

[00:02:07] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. I prob­a­bly see one once a fort­night. They’re, there’s quite a few liv­ing on the golf course. Yeah.

[00:02:13] Cameron Reil­ly: Jeal­ous.

[00:02:14] Tony Kynas­ton: And, um, yeah, they, as soon as they see you, they wad­dle off and put their nose in the dirt. Like, it’s like it’s, they’re dis­ap­pear­ing

[00:02:23] Cameron Reil­ly: You can’t see me.

[00:02:24] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. You can’t see

[00:02:25] Cameron Reil­ly: me. My

[00:02:26] Tony Kynas­ton: But I think what that does is it presents all the quills to the attack­er, so, yeah.

[00:02:30] Tony Kynas­ton: But it’s quite fun­ny and like there’s one that, um, I walked up on it stuck its head in. I walked away. Turn back because it pulled its head out. So I start­ed to walk towards it again and it almost gave me a look of, oh again, and stuck its head in. In the hole.

[00:02:49] Cameron Reil­ly: I just come, I just got home from Kung Fu and we were doing a head­lock, um, drill. And then Sifu was say­ing, when you get the per­son in the head­lock, you’ve got to put your head in your arm. Um, Pro­tect your face in case they, they try and punch you in the eyes or poke you in the eyes if you’re behind them in the head­lock.

[00:03:07] Cameron Reil­ly: So you just cov­er your head, cov­er your eyes and your nose, so if they hit you, they’re just hit­ting you for it. I think that’s what the, the echid­na is doing, it’s just pro­tect­ing its face and uh, stick­ing its bum up in the air, yeah. Heh heh heh.

[00:03:21] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, so that’s good. I see the occa­sion­al fox out on the course. In the dis­tance usu­al­ly they’ve got great radar. Not your fox, no.

[00:03:30] Cameron Reil­ly: No, that’s a shame. I wish I could send him down there.

[00:03:34] Tony Kynas­ton: They’re usu­al­ly a cou­ple, like, three or five hun­dred meters in the dis­tance when they see you and then they take off. Lots of rab­bits, which is why the fox is there. Lots of pos­sums. I get sick of the pos­sums run­ning around our place at night. But yeah, lots of, uh, lots of wildlife. It’s nice. And sun­sets.

[00:03:51] Tony Kynas­ton: Beau­ti­ful sun­sets. Real­ly mag­ic orange fiery sun­sets over the water. It’s just love­ly.

[00:04:00] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, let’s get on to the mar­ket, Tony, and invest­ing. What’s going on out there at the moment?

[00:04:06] Tony Kynas­ton: Did you see the news today that Elon Musk made a bid for Ope­nAI?

[00:04:11] Cameron Reil­ly: I did, and, you know, I pre­dict­ed that on the day of the elec­tion. I

[00:04:19] Tony Kynas­ton: 97 bil­lion dol­lars.

[00:04:22] Cameron Reil­ly: not going to be fun to be Sam Alt­man when Elon’s run­ning the White House. Yeah, I imag­ine that there’s going to be pres­sure in var­i­ous forms placed upon Ope­nAI to accept his offer. So, we’ll see how that plays out.

[00:04:39] Tony Kynas­ton: then the Chi­nese will release their next ver­sion and it’ll be worth 9 bil­lion dol­lars, not 97 bil­lion dol­lars. Oh yeah.

[00:04:53] Cameron Reil­ly: moment is, as we talked about, was last week, whack a mole. It’s like, every day, some­body says, Hey, did you see it? I’m like, uh, no, and real­ly, I don’t, I don’t care. Like, it’s just, I don’t have time to fol­low all these rab­bits down holes every day, real­ly, it’s insan­i­ty.

[00:05:11] Tony Kynas­ton: Did you watch the Super­bowl yes­ter­day?

[00:05:13] Cameron Reil­ly: No, don’t care about that either.

[00:05:15] Tony Kynas­ton: Speak­ing of Trump, he was there. First time a sit­ting pres­i­dent went, yeah.

[00:05:20] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

[00:05:21] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, and an Aus­tralian played on the win­ning side, so there was a bit of home­town flavour in it.

[00:05:26] Cameron Reil­ly: Was Antho­ny Albanese there bend­ing in the knee to, or Kevin Rudd? Do they go to bend the knee?

[00:05:32] Tony Kynas­ton: I don’t know, I doubt that. Albanese, he def­i­nite­ly was­n’t. I don’t know about Rudd, I did­n’t see him. He was­n’t men­tioned, nor would he like­ly to be men­tioned. Paul McCart­ney was there.

[00:05:42] Cameron Reil­ly: one of them will

[00:05:43] Tony Kynas­ton: was there, watch­ing her boyfriend lose. Yep.

[00:05:46] Cameron Reil­ly: there to bend the knee in the next week. I’m pret­ty sure. Because we will talk about

[00:05:51] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, the Fin Review,

[00:05:52] Cameron Reil­ly: tar­iffs.

[00:05:53] Tony Kynas­ton: the Fin Review was, um, say­ing it’s all done. Albanese has spo­ken to Trump already and it’s, he’s con­fi­dent that Aus­tralia won’t be caught up in it.

[00:06:04] Cameron Reil­ly: Right.

[00:06:05] Tony Kynas­ton: Who knows?

[00:06:05] Cameron Reil­ly: must be new news.

[00:06:07] Tony Kynas­ton: Who knows? I mean, I imag­ine every­one gets off the phone with Trump going, phew, yeah, he’s agreed to what I’ve asked for. Five min­utes lat­er they read about it being over­turned in the, in the press.

[00:06:19] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. You know, you think we have to wor­ry about whack a mole. Imag­ine, you know, run­ning anoth­er coun­try right now and just not know­ing what’s going to come out of left field on any day. And then your media is going to be all over you. What are you going to do about it? You can’t give my answer, which is, ah, just, I’m just fuck­ing ignor­ing every­thing that he says, quite hon­est­ly.

[00:06:39] Tony Kynas­ton: Which is the cor­rect response, isn’t it, real­ly? Right.

[00:06:43] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, that’s what you said about Trudeau last week, right? That’s what Trudeau should be going like. Just, I’m just ignor­ing it. It’s just

[00:06:49] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. No, exact­ly. Yeah. So yeah, but it’s, I mean, it’s out there in the mar­ket. I think the mar­ket’s been wor­ried about tar­iffs since Trump was elect­ed. So I’m not see­ing

[00:07:00] Cameron Reil­ly: on us, they’re indi­rect­ly affect­ing us, right, through Chi­na or what­ev­er.

[00:07:05] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Yeah, def­i­nite­ly. But it does­n’t seem to have affect­ed things that much. I mean, there was some volatil­i­ty when Trump was elect­ed, but I think the, well, in my read­ing, the iron ore price is now a buy again. So it’s been going up recent­ly.

[00:07:19] Cameron Reil­ly: And the mar­ket is at an all time high. It’s just, it’s going bonkers. It’s up like 10 per­cent in the last, uh, few months or more or less. It’s up, going, like, and actu­al­ly I’m going to intro­duce, um, some­thing lat­er on in the show that you will be super impressed by. I know because I’m impressed. Um, you know, All the lead­ing in, all the lead­ing invest­ment, uh, gurus have their own indi­ca­tor.

[00:07:49] Cameron Reil­ly: You got the buf­fet indi­ca­tor, you got the cop indi­ca­tor. I’m intro­duc­ing the, the, the, the Riley indi­ca­tor today. Uh, I

[00:07:57] Tony Kynas­ton: and you think that makes you a great investor?

[00:08:00] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, no, it’s the oth­er way now that I am a great investor after six years of doing this show, I’m an expert. I’m, I’m at such a lev­el. I’m intro­duc­ing my own indi­ca­tor, which we’ll talk about lat­er. The Riley indi­ca­tor. You’re gonna love it!

[00:08:21] Tony Kynas­ton: yeah,

[00:08:21] Cameron Reil­ly: are telling me, peo­ple are telling me it’s the great­est indi­ca­tor they’ve ever seen, say­ing it’s real­ly fab­u­lous, it’s gonna be great. It’s gonna be the most beau­ti­ful indi­ca­tor the world has ever seen.

[00:08:33] Tony Kynas­ton: I’ll look for­ward to hear­ing what it is.

[00:08:34] Cameron Reil­ly: from all around the world are going to come to admire my indi­ca­tor. Take a look at my indi­ca­tor. Are you pleased?

[00:08:44] Tony Kynas­ton: We’re going to

[00:08:44] Cameron Reil­ly: that your indi­ca­tor or are you just pleased to see me? Any­way, talk about some stuff and then I’ll tell you about my indi­ca­tor.

[00:08:53] Tony Kynas­ton: I was going to talk about the, um, A dum­my port­fo­lio per­for­mance ver­sus the light port­fo­lio per­for­mances, I think. As you point­ed out a cou­ple of weeks ago, the dum­my port­fo­lio on I think one of the light port­fo­lios Did well last year and out­per­formed the mar­ket, but three of the light port­fo­lios under­per­formed the mar­ket.

[00:09:14] Tony Kynas­ton: So I’ve been doing analy­sis. I thought I’d land­ed on the rea­son, but um, I did the analy­sis last week and then pre­pared for the show this morn­ing and went back and went not so sure after I reviewed it again. But I’ll tell you what my hypoth­e­sis was, par­tic­u­lar­ly for the dum­my port­fo­lio. So a lot of the Out­per­form­ing stocks in the dum­my port­fo­lio have been held for quite a while, Kor­vest I think being the longest, KOV, and its per­for­mance was up a lot.

[00:09:44] Tony Kynas­ton: Last year, cal­en­dar year, but it was bought back in 2020, April 2020, um, in the dum­my port­fo­lio. So by the time last cal­en­dar year rolled around, it was­n’t on the buy list any­more. So I think what may have been my, my sort of the­o­ry is what’s hap­pen­ing is that the longer the port­fo­lio is going for, the more chance you’ve got to have stocks, which have been going up con­sis­tent­ly for a long time.

[00:10:10] Tony Kynas­ton: So. You know, we’ve picked the weeds and let the flow­ers bloom. But those stocks that are bloom­ing aren’t nec­es­sar­i­ly on the buy list any­more because they’ve gone up in price, but they’re still kick­ing on. So that was my the­o­ry going in. But then this morn­ing I had anoth­er look at it. And the dum­my port­fo­lio also bought some stocks dur­ing 2024, which did well like Per­en­ti.

[00:10:31] Tony Kynas­ton: So I’m not sure that that sort of longevi­ty of some of the I think there’s four stocks that have been there for a while, is the rea­son, I’ve got to dig a bit fur­ther, but um, it’s cer­tain­ly help­ing to con­tribute to the rea­son. So my, I kind of sus­pect that the longer the dum­my port, the longer the light port­fo­lios go on for, the bet­ter chance they’ve got of hav­ing these stocks which are con­tin­u­ous­ly going up, and there­fore off the buy list, and um, that’ll occur with them too, but.

[00:11:02] Tony Kynas­ton: I’ve got to go back and re look at it.

[00:11:05] Cameron Reil­ly: Okay. Well, thanks for doing that.

[00:11:08] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, the oth­er thing I want­ed to talk about was, um, iron ore. Uh, so I had a look at it last Fri­day when I had to sell a share because I did a down­load, um, Thurs­day or Fri­day, I can’t remem­ber now, and there was noth­ing to buy because every­thing was going down that par­tic­u­lar day. So I checked the com­modi­ties part of the down­load and iron ore looked like it had just ticked up into a buy again, which gave me a cou­ple of oppor­tu­ni­ties And the buy list, which we haven’t looked at for a while.

[00:11:39] Tony Kynas­ton: So, um, it was, when I dropped a ruler over the graph, it looked like it was just touch­ing the line. But then when I plugged the num­bers into the spread­sheet cal­cu­la­tor, it came out as a buy. So, um, uh, have a look at that. Be, be aware of it. If our iron ore isn’t cur­rent­ly a buy today, it’ll, you know, it’s got a good chance of being a buy in the near future.

[00:12:01] Cameron Reil­ly: Right. So that, uh, I mean obvi­ous­ly I think Iron ore, I think of, uh, our old friends at FMG, but, um, we put the kibosh on FMG a while ago because it seemed to be in a bit of a dis­ar­ray as a com­pa­ny. Um, oh yeah, I’m look­ing at the chart now. Yeah, it’s, uh, right on the line, if not Over the line. Um, what are your, what are your cur­rent thoughts on the empire of Zig­gy F Twig­gy, Zig­gy, Twig­gy,

[00:12:29] Tony Kynas­ton: Twig­gy. Yeah, it’s a good ques­tion, isn’t it? Um, I’m tempt­ed to buy it again. And that’s, a lot of that’s dri­ven by me not hav­ing much to buy on the buy list with a high ADT that’s not going down. Um, but there’s a ques­tion I know we’ll get to lat­er on, which asks that very thing, when does it stop being a red flag?

[00:12:52] Tony Kynas­ton: And in con­sid­er­ing that ques­tion, I sort of think, well, it’s when sen­ti­ment returns, isn’t it? So, if you look at all those com­pa­nies that have been red flagged and have own­er founders like, Fortes­cue, like WiseTech, um, Min­er­al Resources. Even­tu­al­ly sen­ti­ment will turn with it. Peo­ple will say, okay, well, we, we know what’s going on.

[00:13:13] Tony Kynas­ton: It’s not a good look, but the under­ly­ing busi­ness is still okay and we’re going to buy. It’s a bet­ter risk at this price, risk adjust­ed reward at this price. So I’m tempt­ed to be led by sen­ti­ment. with FMG as well.

[00:13:27] Cameron Reil­ly: it is above its buy line and its sec­ond buy line at the moment.

[00:13:32] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, yeah, and it’s just above the com­mod­i­ty price. So I’m tempt­ed to, you know, take the red flag off it.

[00:13:39] Cameron Reil­ly: Mmm, okay.

[00:13:41] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, I think the red flag is a good indi­ca­tor of when to sell, but it’s a real­ly good ques­tion. You hold, you can’t hold them for­ev­er. Um, so if the mar­ket sen­ti­ment changes, I think that’s prob­a­bly a good enough indi­ca­tor to say that at least some ana­lysts are com­fort­able.

[00:13:56] Tony Kynas­ton: It’s, it’s a cheap enough price now to buy again.

[00:13:59] Cameron Reil­ly: Right. Okay. What else?

[00:14:04] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, well, it’s report­ing sea­son, so a cou­ple of stocks in the news which may be held by some of our lis­ten­ers. One was Nik Scali, uh, who released some good results. Now, Nik Scali isn’t on the buy list any­more, but it has been recent­ly in the last few months. Um, and in a nut­shell, the last time we spoke about Nik Scali, I had a ques­tion mark over there.

[00:14:29] Tony Kynas­ton: expan­sion into Britain, and then, uh, they had a prob­lem with their ship­ping trans­porter because the way Nick Scal­i’s busi­ness mod­el works is they take an order for a sofa and then build a sofa in their fac­to­ry in Asia and then ship it. So I can take A num­ber of months before the cus­tomer gets their order ful­filled.

[00:14:51] Tony Kynas­ton: And, uh, they announced a cou­ple of months ago that they were hav­ing prob­lems with their ship­ping com­pa­ny. And orders were being delayed, and they were try­ing to get a workaround. Um, they came out dur­ing their results and said they’ve got the workaround. That’s all hunky dory. And their British, um, stores are doing well.

[00:15:10] Tony Kynas­ton: And so the, uh, stock rose. After that, I went through their results and I thought this could be good spin because the Aus­tralian results were down, but that’s on the back of prob­a­bly this delay in ship­ping. So it’s one to watch. But yeah, they’re report­ing bet­ter results in Britain than Aus­tralia. First Indi­cat­ed, and the share price is up.

[00:15:35] Tony Kynas­ton: So that’s Nick Scali. Uh, Beach Ener­gy is one that’s been on the buy list for a long time. And they released their announce­ments and the share price went down. Went down about 4 per­cent when they released their results. How­ev­er, I think it’s been slow­ly climb­ing back from then. So, What they said, uh, on Thurs­day last week was that the, um, they, they released a, uh, an esti­mate of, uh, sor­ry, an inter­im div­i­dend of three cents per share when the con­sen­sus fore­cast was for four cents.

[00:16:13] Tony Kynas­ton: And so the mar­ket sold off on that basis, right­ly or wrong­ly, I mean, and why you’d, Get upset about one cent dif­fer­ence in your div­i­dend and cause you to sell your stake. I’m not sure, but that’s what ana­lysts do. Um, so any­way, the CEO came out and said he thought it was pru­dent to take, uh, to the board a div­i­dend approach that gave, uh, us, Bing Beach, as much flex­i­bil­i­ty as we need­ed.

[00:16:38] Tony Kynas­ton: And then when we get to four years, we can ful­ly eval­u­ate the div­i­dend. All in all, we’ve had a fan­tas­tic result. All the num­bers are up across all ele­ments. So their prof­it rose 37%. Um, and bot­tom line earn­ings, which I guess is Net­PAT, were up 164%. So, you know, it was a pret­ty good result. Um, a div­i­dend miss which saw the shares go down, but they’ve been recov­er­ing since then.

[00:17:03] Tony Kynas­ton: So, again, anoth­er one to look at. And

[00:17:08] Cameron Reil­ly: I add one to that

[00:17:09] Tony Kynas­ton: yeah,

[00:17:10] Cameron Reil­ly: I saw in my news, uh, script ran this morn­ing that SWM, Sev­en West Media,

[00:17:18] Tony Kynas­ton: mm hmm, mm

[00:17:19] Cameron Reil­ly: came out with their half year results today and, um, The share price is up 5 per­cent as a result, which is good, because I, I, uh, held my nose and made it a light buy yes­ter­day, uh, you know, I have a very, I have a dis­like for Mr.

[00:17:38] Cameron Reil­ly: Stokes and his 7West Media, but He’s on the buy list, just gen­er­at­ing cash, so I was like, UGH, hold my nose and put it down. And then it went up 5 per­cent today, uh, because it’s, uh, accord­ing to Media Week, Sev­en West Media has post­ed a resilient per­for­mance for the first half of FY25 in a chal­leng­ing adver­tis­ing land­scape, while total Total group rev­enue dipped 6 per­cent year on year to 727 mil­lion.

[00:18:09] Cameron Reil­ly: The com­pa­ny’s strate­gic con­tent invest­ments and cost man­age­ment efforts have put it in a strong posi­tion to cap­ture growth oppor­tu­ni­ties in the sec­ond half of the finan­cial year. Sounds like it was writ­ten by their PR depart­ment, does­n’t

[00:18:22] Tony Kynas­ton: mm hmm. Prob­a­bly

[00:18:23] Cameron Reil­ly: Um, it says, uh, key to the com­pa­ny’s con­tin­ued suc­cess has been its focus on dri­ving audi­ence growth and deliv­er­ing high val­ue con­tent.

[00:18:32] Cameron Reil­ly: Across both tra­di­tion­al and dig­i­tal plat­forms. Find that hard to believe. Total TV audi­ences for Sev­en were up by 1. 5 per­cent year on year with dig­i­tal plat­forms like Sev­en Plus see­ing sig­nif­i­cant gains, a 43 per­cent increase in audi­ence engage­ment, this off­set a mod­est decline of 1. 8 per­cent in lin­ear TV view­er­ship, show­cas­ing Sev­en’s con­tin­ued rel­e­vance in a frag­ment­ed media land­scape.

[00:18:59] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh,

[00:19:00] Tony Kynas­ton: Con­tin­ued rel­e­vance. Well, they did, uh, they did broad­cast the Super Bowl yes­ter­day.

[00:19:05] Cameron Reil­ly: right.

[00:19:07] Tony Kynas­ton: So that

[00:19:07] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, I like. You know, just gag reflex on max­i­mum over­load there, but uh, any­way.

[00:19:14] Tony Kynas­ton: Tell you what, I had a gag reflex at the half­time show at the Super­bowl yes­ter­day. Kendrick

[00:19:20] Cameron Reil­ly: uh, Tay­lor told me, I picked Tay­lor up from the air­port last night, he told me about that, yeah. Appar­ent­ly it’s got some­thing to do with a Drake diss track. Oh, he’s just all inter­est­ed in He told me the sto­ry was it’s a, it’s a diss track against Drake, and that Kendrick put it out a while ago, and it was a big hit, and then Drake sued him for like, 400 mil­lion dol­lars, and UMG, his label, and so, to give the mid­dle fin­ger to Drake and his law­suit, they per­formed it at the Super Bowl half­time show, um, on, so it’s per­form­ing on steroids, so it’s, appar­ent­ly it’s alleg­ing that Drake’s a pae­dophile, which is why it’s called A Minor. Any­way, that’s all I know about it. I did­n’t watch it. I did­n’t hear it. I don’t lis­ten to Kendrick Lamar or Drake or give a shit either way. So that’s what Tay­lor told me about on the trip home from the air­port last

[00:20:13] Tony Kynas­ton: yeah. I turned it off, I went and walked away. It’s just, I’ll be kind and say it’s not my cup of tea. I could be nasty and say it’s unremit­ting shit, but any­way, it was just awful. And I had this strange usage of Samuel L. Jack­son dressed up as Uncle Sam intro­duc­ing it, which I thought was just a real­ly poor note

[00:20:36] Cameron Reil­ly: Sam told, uh, Tay told me about that. I was like, oh, that’s going to make Trump and the con­ser­v­a­tives hap­py. Maybe it was, that was why they did it. I don’t know.

[00:20:45] Tony Kynas­ton: maybe.

[00:20:47] Cameron Reil­ly: Uh, alright, you got any­thing else before you get into your pulled pork?

[00:20:50] Tony Kynas­ton: Nope.

[00:20:52] Cameron Reil­ly: Alright, cou­ple of things from me. Um, I will talk about the Cameron Indi­ca­tor.

[00:20:56] Cameron Reil­ly: Um, this is the Cameron Indi­ca­tor. When I open up my alerts list, and there’s noth­ing on it. Noth­ing even close. Okay, I lied. There’s one thing that’s close. Um, The one thing that’s close is MMS, which is, uh, What was a pos­si­ble light entry a few weeks ago. It’s a, you know, their share price dipped strange­ly recent­ly.

[00:21:19] Cameron Reil­ly: There would be a rule one sell if I had­n’t kicked the rule one out to 20 per­cent instead of 10%. So it’s a 12 per­cent down from the buy price, but that’s a long way from 20%. Tech­ni­cal­ly, not even close to 20%. There’s noth­ing else show­ing up in my alerts buy list. Not even close, because I, the way I have my script­ing set up, it does­n’t only show me when they’ve tripped a wire, but if they’re close to trip­ping a wire, like with­in 4 or 5 per­cent of trip­ping a wire, 1.

[00:21:47] Cameron Reil­ly: Noth­ing’s show­ing up out of the hun­dred and How many stocks? Uh, hun­dred and 130 stocks cur­rent­ly in my var­i­ous port­fo­lios. Noth­ing’s even close to a sell, which to me is the Cameron indi­ca­tor. It says to me, it’s due for a cor­rec­tion.

[00:22:11] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, you’re pre­dict­ing a cor­rec­tion using the Cameron indi­ca­tor. Oh,

[00:22:15] Cameron Reil­ly: I’m pre­dict­ing

[00:22:16] Tony Kynas­ton: heard it first here, peo­ple. Sell every­thing.

[00:22:18] Cameron Reil­ly: If every­thing is going so well, that noth­ing is close to a sell, it prob­a­bly means that we’re, because usu­al­ly there’s

[00:22:27] Tony Kynas­ton: a regres­sion to the main, yeah.

[00:22:29] Cameron Reil­ly: yeah, usu­al­ly there’s at least a dozen stocks that, you know, that are close to a sell, they’re hov­er­ing around their sell lines, noth­ing’s even close right now, so that to me is a neg­a­tive indi­ca­tor that bad times are a com­ing, we’re in the mid­dle of a bub­ble.

[00:22:45] Cameron Reil­ly: That’s the Cameron Indi­ca­tor.

[00:22:47] Tony Kynas­ton: Right.

[00:22:48] Cameron Reil­ly: If every­thing’s going, if

[00:22:49] Tony Kynas­ton: Val­ue stocks are a bub­ble.

[00:22:52] Cameron Reil­ly: No, the mar­ket’s in a bub­ble. If every­thing’s going well, some­thing’s about to go wrong. That’s, that’s the Cameron Indi­ca­tor.

[00:22:59] Tony Kynas­ton: And you’ve done about a hun­dred years of back­test­ing on that in the stock

[00:23:03] Cameron Reil­ly: No, no, I just was in the show­er before and I thought, Isn’t it weird that there’s noth­ing

[00:23:08] Tony Kynas­ton: Hang on, you’re in the show­er and you’ve devel­oped an indi­ca­tor.

[00:23:14] Cameron Reil­ly: I did. I was try­ing to unblock my left ear, which I was telling Tony before the show was blocked with some­thing, and I’m tap­ping my head, try­ing to get the water out or what­ev­er’s in there, wax or an earplug or some­thing, think­ing, yeah, it’s an India, there must, there’s prob­a­bly some­thing in that.

[00:23:31] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, Macmil­lan Shake­speare’s only 3PTL sell too.

[00:23:37] Cameron Reil­ly: right.

[00:23:38] Tony Kynas­ton: So, um, yeah, you might have some­thing on your list soon.

[00:23:41] Cameron Reil­ly: Right. Well, uh, mov­ing right along, um, just for shits and gig­gles sto­ries, uh, Trump­Coin, I was read­ing about this in the New York Times yes­ter­day, uh, some, some ana­lysts ana­lyzed what hap­pened with the Trump meme coin. I’ll just read some quotes from this, it’s beau­ti­ful. Fast prof­its for ear­ly traders whose names are unknown, but some of whom appear to be based in Chi­na.

[00:24:08] Cameron Reil­ly: Came at the expense of a far larg­er num­ber of slow­er investors who have cumu­la­tive­ly suf­fered more than two bil­lion dol­lars in loss­es after the price of the token crashed. As of the mid­dle of this week, more than 810, 000 wal­lets had lost mon­ey on the bet, accord­ing to an exam­i­na­tion that the cryp­to foren­sics firm Chain Analy­sis No, Chainal­y­sis, Chainal­y­sis per­formed for the New York Times.

[00:24:38] Cameron Reil­ly: The val­ue of Dol­lar Trump. Hov­ered around 17 this week, less than a quar­ter of its 75 peak val­ue. Whether peo­ple made or lost mon­ey, it was a stel­lar busi­ness for the Trumps. Near­ly 100 mil­lion in trad­ing fees have flowed to the fam­i­ly and its part­ners, although most of that has not yet been cashed out, the Chainal­y­sis data shows.

[00:25:02] Cameron Reil­ly: It is effec­tive­ly a part of the design of the entire meme coin indus­try, which is legal, but large­ly unreg­u­lat­ed. The trad­ing is built on large ear­ly bid­ders. Buy­ers by sophis­ti­cat­ed traders who pump up the price only to sell their hold­ings as less expe­ri­enced retail investors fol­low their lead and buy in and often end up with loss­es.

[00:25:27] Cameron Reil­ly: New York reg­u­la­tors call these manoeu­vres, pump and dump schemes and said they can leave buy­ers who come in late with big loss­es. To me, that just sounds like the entire, uh,

[00:25:40] Tony Kynas­ton: me too.

[00:25:41] Cameron Reil­ly: indus­try.

[00:25:42] Tony Kynas­ton: Were those New York reg­u­la­tors speak­ing on their way out as, uh, as the Doge peo­ple

[00:25:48] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

[00:25:49] Tony Kynas­ton: purged? Yeah. I can’t see cryp­to reg­u­la­tion improv­ing under this, uh, cur­rent, uh, pres­i­den­cy? No.

[00:25:56] Cameron Reil­ly: I can’t see any­thing improv­ing under this cur­rent

[00:25:59] Tony Kynas­ton: ha ha ha ha ha! Well, I accept Trump’s bank account. Um,

[00:26:02] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, good point.

[00:26:04] Tony Kynas­ton: can you, do you know how, how it works when they issue some­thing like a Trump coin?

[00:26:10] Tony Kynas­ton: Like is that actu­al­ly, when you issue it, does the, who­ev­er buys the first coin pay you? Like, you know, when a com­pa­ny rais­es cap­i­tal, it issues shares and the orig­i­nal pur­chas­es of the shares, So does that mean, like, that Trump got all the, what was it, you know, 17s or 70 dol­lars a meme coin, times the num­ber of meme coins issued?

[00:26:35] Cameron Reil­ly: No, I think, well they sold, I think the ini­tial price was like 17 cents.

[00:26:39] Tony Kynas­ton: Right. But who, when that 17 cents is the issue price and you buy the first coin, is the mon­ey going back to Trump or where does it go?

[00:26:47] Cameron Reil­ly: yeah. Yeah, I think so. Trump and who­ev­er the com­pa­ny is, his com­pa­ny that was behind it, yeah.

[00:26:52] Tony Kynas­ton: it’s a straight bribe.

[00:26:55] Cameron Reil­ly: A bribe?

[00:26:56] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. You’re pay­ing mon­ey to a sit­ting pres­i­dent.

[00:27:00] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, it was three days before his inau­gu­ra­tion,

[00:27:03] Tony Kynas­ton: okay. So just before, before.

[00:27:04] Cameron Reil­ly: a, there’s a win­dow, yeah.

[00:27:06] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Okay.

[00:27:10] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, yeah,

[00:27:11] Tony Kynas­ton: So like, it’s a hun­dred, Shane Nel­lis is say­ing it’s a hun­dred mil­lion dol­lars. I sus­pect it’s bil­lions.

[00:27:17] Cameron Reil­ly: And, the, the, the sto­ry was say­ing that some of the trades hap­pened with­in two min­utes of the announce­ment of it. There was no warn­ing, Trump just announced it on Truth Social that it was now avail­able. With­in two min­utes, there was peo­ple buy­ing it, and it looked like a lot of them were com­ing out of Chi­na.

[00:27:35] Cameron Reil­ly: There

[00:27:39] Tony Kynas­ton: If I’m right, that mon­ey goes to Trump, and then they can lay off by sell­ing their coin onto some­body else.

[00:27:46] Cameron Reil­ly: Mm

[00:27:46] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:27:49] Cameron Reil­ly: hmm. It’s a beau­ti­ful sys­tem. Most beau­ti­ful

[00:27:51] Tony Kynas­ton: Beau­ti­ful.

[00:27:52] Cameron Reil­ly: me that’s ever been seen.

[00:27:55] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, it is. I mean, points for cre­ativ­i­ty. That’s great. Yeah,

[00:28:08] Cameron Reil­ly: what that means. Accord­ing to the ABC, last year Aus­tralia export­ed 223, 000 tons of steel to the US and 83, 000

[00:28:20] Cameron Reil­ly: We export­ed about 33 bil­lion dol­lars in total to the U. S. in 2023 and import­ed about 65 bil­lion dol­lars. So appar­ent­ly they were say­ing that one of the things Albanese is going to point out is the trade deficit that we have with the U. S. and etc. etc. Um, based on the lat­est fig­ures accord­ing to GPT from ABS and DFAT, Aus­tralia exp We export­ed rough­ly 130 bil­lion worth of goods and ser­vices to Chi­na in 2023, so 33 bil­lion we export­ed to the U.

[00:28:53] Cameron Reil­ly: S., 130 bil­lion we export­ed to Chi­na, so the U. S. rep­re­sents the U. S. A rel­a­tive­ly small com­po­nent of our exports com­pared to Chi­na, but still, it’s, uh, GPT said, um, a 25 per­cent tar­iff would affect niche com­pa­nies and it could have a trick­le down effect on the econ­o­my, um, so it’s, it’s still a, If Albanese has­n’t or isn’t able to get it removed, um, it could, it could have an impact on those sec­tors in the econ­o­my.

[00:29:28] Cameron Reil­ly: I was just try­ing to get a sense for how, you know, what, how big of a deal it real­ly was. I have real­ly no sense about the lev­el of our exports to the U. S. these days.

[00:29:38] Tony Kynas­ton: well, I think the two com­pa­nies that come to mind that would be effec­tive are Blue Scope Steel and per­haps QAV. Capral, alu­mini­um, um, Capral’s down. 10 odd cents today, not much, but it’s been going up for a long time. And BlueScope’s in a sim­i­lar sort of boat, so nei­ther of those seemed over­ly affect­ed by the announce­ment of tar­iffs.

[00:30:02] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, and I’m trawl­ing through my mem­o­ry banks, but I can remem­ber prob­a­bly about 15 years ago, so it may have been in the Bush years, or it could have been the ear­ly, um, Oba­ma years. The Amer­i­cans put a tar­iff on steel back then, but they waived it for BlueScope. Steel, because it was­n’t a real threat. So, you know, there’s a prece­dent for doing it again for what it’s worth.

[00:30:30] Cameron Reil­ly: Speak­ing of Bush, I saw a clip this morn­ing of Bush, when he was pres­i­dent, Bush 2 this is, W, uh, speak­ing in front of a live audi­ence some­where, and he was say­ing, you know, there have been times in the past when Amer­i­ca has gone through these strange peri­ods of iso­la­tion­ism and pro­tec­tion­ism, you know, in the 20s, there was a lot of that, and we did­n’t want to get involved in Europe, and then of course, as a result of that, World War II hap­pened, and we had to get involved.

[00:30:57] Cameron Reil­ly: But there’s these strange peri­ods of iso­la­tion­ism and, y’know, we, we dis­con­nect from the rest of the world. And all the peo­ple in the com­ments and red­dit were like, Wow, when Bush sounds like the sane guy. You know how far we’ve come. At one point, at the time he was con­sid­ered the most insane Repub­li­can pres­i­dent we’d ever had.

[00:31:19] Cameron Reil­ly: Now, in ret­ro­spect, he seems like a good guy, a sen­si­ble guy. Yeah.

[00:31:26] Tony Kynas­ton: Over my life­time it’s been, wow, Ronald Rea­gan’s insane. Oh my god, W’s insane. Holy fuck, look at Trump. Yeah.

[00:31:40] Cameron Reil­ly: you know, when, when Bush was still Pres­i­dent Oba­ma, I was like, you think Bush is bad, wait till you see what comes next. And I’ve been say­ing that, you know, in the first Trump term and this one too, you think Trump’s bad? If there is a next.

[00:31:53] Cameron Reil­ly: Wait till you see what comes next. You know, it’s, it does­n’t get bet­ter. These tra­jec­to­ries, his­tor­i­cal­ly speak­ing, uh, as you move from oli­garchy to klep­toc­ra­cy, and I think the U. S. is well and tru­ly in a klep­toc­ra­cy now, um, they don’t, it does­n’t get bet­ter until there’s a rug pull. There’s a mas­sive rug pull and then, you know, there’s a, you know, reset­ting and a sta­bi­liza­tion, but yeah.

[00:32:18] Cameron Reil­ly: You know, I saw there was a good video, um, do you know George Mon­biot? Do you fol­low George Mon­biot? The British left­ist. Uh, his­to­ri­an, uh, I saw a good video of him and he was quot­ing anoth­er book. Can’t remem­ber the name of the author of the book, but a guy wrote a book on oli­garchies, uh, a few years ago.

[00:32:36] Cameron Reil­ly: And, uh, Mon­biot was say­ing There’s only his­to his­tor­i­cal­ly go back through his­to­ry. There’s only four ways Oli­garchy’s end. It’s a major civ­il. A major inter­na­tion­al war that brings about the col­lapse of that soci­ety, some oth­er form of soci­etal col­lapse, or a plague, a major plague. You know, basi­cal­ly, the only way that oli­garchies end is with com­plete soci­etal col­lapse as a result of one of those four. His­tor­i­cal­ly speak­ing. Um, so that’s what the US has to look for­ward to right

[00:33:20] Tony Kynas­ton: horse­men. The four horse­men of the apoc­a­lypse. Yeah.

[00:33:24] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. Okay. Okay. Now, mov­ing right along. Uh, as I men­tioned to you off air, I’ve now com­plete­ly script­ed the check­list. Um, got it fin­ished, uh, on Sun­day night. And then the only issue I had that I did, uh, last night was I had to do it, uh, check it for audits.

[00:33:44] Cameron Reil­ly: So, uh, I, at the moment I don’t have a script to check for audits, but what I do is I’ve, I’ve got it to check. Um, our buy list for the audit sta­tus. So the, the, cause our buy list has, Alex does the audits. She has a run­ning check­list of audits. So it checks that each week, my script.

[00:34:02] Tony Kynas­ton: Okay.

[00:34:03] Cameron Reil­ly: Um, but I do think I will be able to ful­ly script the audits in the near future, but every­thing else is com­plete­ly script­ed now.

[00:34:10] Cameron Reil­ly: Um, but in doing that, I picked up what seemed to be a cou­ple of prob­lems with the. Cod­ing of the check­list. And I want to

[00:34:21] Tony Kynas­ton: Prob­lems? Prob­lems. It’s a very good check. It’s the best check­list any­one’s

[00:34:25] Cameron Reil­ly: a bit, peo­ple tell me it’s the great­est check­list. Now, keep­ing in mind that I don’t have the great­est brain for this kind of stuff, so I’ll run it past you.

[00:34:34] Cameron Reil­ly: So the first one, so, you know, basi­cal­ly what was hap­pen­ing was I had, I had script­ed the The code was writ­ten around the rules in the Bible, and then when I was com­par­ing it to the actu­al buy list, there were some incon­sis­ten­cies between the script­ed result and the check­list result. And when I drilled down into it, I came to the con­clu­sion it’s actu­al­ly the check­list that’s wrong, not the script, but I want to check with you here.

[00:34:58] Cameron Reil­ly: So the first one is PVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV PE ver­sus yield. So we have a rule, um, if the PE is less than the yield is what we’re check­ing for, right? When I look at the for­mu­la in the check­list, and this is both in the, in the, your mas­ter ver­sion, the one Alex uses and the Flit­man ver­sion that I use, the way it’s for­mu­lat­ed is we do yield minus PE. And then the way the rule works, it says, If it is greater than 0, then we score it a 1.

[00:35:33] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm hmm.

[00:35:37] Cameron Reil­ly: Hold on. No.

[00:35:39] Tony Kynas­ton: That’s how it should work. You’re say­ing it does­n’t work that way.

[00:35:41] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, hold on. The for­mu­la cur­rent­ly states if the yield minus the P is greater than 1,

[00:35:47] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm hmm.

[00:35:48] Cameron Reil­ly: it gets a score. But I think it should be greater than 0.

[00:35:52] Tony Kynas­ton: I think you’re right.

[00:35:54] Cameron Reil­ly: Right. Okay. Good. That one, that one needs to change in the check­list. I’ve changed it in my script already. Okay. So I will, I will, for peo­ple lis­ten­ing, I will, you can make it the change in your own check­list.

[00:36:05] Cameron Reil­ly: So just to be clear, um, the scor­ing should be if yield minus PE is greater than zero, not greater than one, it should get a score means the yield is big­ger than the PE, right? Um, yeah. I will update the check­lists, though, and you can down­load the new ver­sion by the time this comes out, or change your own.

[00:36:28] Cameron Reil­ly: The sec­ond is growth over PE is greater than 1. 5. So, um, I looked at, again, both my for­mu­la and Alex’s for­mu­la are the same. Uh, let me read through this. So, for a giv­en com­pa­ny code, what I want to do is look up the fore­cast.

[00:36:57] Cameron Reil­ly: And if the fore­cast­ed EPS is greater than zero, then cal­cu­late the dif­fer­ence between the cur­rent EPS before abnor­mals and the fore­cast­ed EPS, and then divide the dif­fer­ence. By the cur­rent EPS. Gives us a growth rate. Is that right?

[00:37:19] Tony Kynas­ton: Yep, that’s right.

[00:37:21] Cameron Reil­ly: So I think the way it’s work­ing at the moment is With the spread­sheet, it’s If the EPS growth is show­ing a blank, it should be show­ing neg­a­tive.

[00:37:39] Tony Kynas­ton: No, I think what’s hap­pen­ing at the moment, I’ve had a look at it when you sent through your notes.

[00:37:43] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah,

[00:37:43] Tony Kynas­ton: And I remem­ber cod­ing this and it was quite tricky because a lot of shares don’t have an EPS fore­cast and we had to cater for that because if we throw blanks into the equa­tions they were just return­ing the hash­tag error

[00:37:57] Cameron Reil­ly: yeah,

[00:37:58] Tony Kynas­ton: that Excel often does.

[00:38:00] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, but yeah, I think you’re right. I think it’s, I’ve got to rewrite the code so that it still checks for blanks and if there are blanks it does­n’t go any fur­ther. But it still has to take into account when things are neg­a­tive and not blank. So cur­rent­ly I think it tests for things being above zero.

[00:38:19] Cameron Reil­ly: yeah, right, so if the EPS growth is neg­a­tive,

[00:38:22] Tony Kynas­ton: We should score it

[00:38:23] Cameron Reil­ly: it, should score a neg­a­tive,

[00:38:25] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:38:26] Cameron Reil­ly: yeah, okay. So I got­ta fix that one as well. So those, those two, um, I’ll fix them. In both the spread­sheets and I’ll repub­lish it and

[00:38:37] Tony Kynas­ton: be care­ful of that one because I spent a lot of time on cod­ing that one to take into account dif­fer­ent com­bi­na­tions of blanks and neg­a­tives.

[00:38:45] Cameron Reil­ly: right. Yeah.

[00:38:47] Tony Kynas­ton: I did­n’t get it right, but it was work­ing so I’ll let it go.

[00:38:51] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. And look, I don’t think it makes a huge dif­fer­ence, but, um, it was just show­ing up as

[00:38:56] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:38:57] Cameron Reil­ly: incon­sis­ten­cy with my script­ing. Um, so get back to the script­ing then. So, um, It runs on my own machine now and, uh, what I want to do is now fig­ure out how to make it avail­able on, as a, as a web based plat­form. The, the,

[00:39:19] Tony Kynas­ton: All right.

[00:39:20] Cameron Reil­ly: plan is to get it to a point where our mem­bers can just, um, click a but­ton and it’ll gen­er­ate a buy list.

[00:39:28] Cameron Reil­ly: At this stage, they’ll still need to have their own Stock Doc­tor or Stock­o­pe­dia. I haven’t done it for Stock­o­pe­dia yet. Uh, that’ll be anoth­er. You’ll still need your own Stock Doc­tor account because, you know, we can’t share the Stock Doc­tor down­load data due to their terms and con­di­tions. And I haven’t been able to find a data provider that we can pay like a whole­sale thing to.

[00:39:52] Cameron Reil­ly: But where I want to get it to soon is where peo­ple will be able to, you know, open it up in a web brows­er. It’ll say, uh, upload your fil­ter, you know, down­load your Stock Doc­tor fil­ter, upload it. into the thing, the script, and it’ll just spit out a buy list for you. You’ll still need to do com­mod­i­ty checks and all that kind of stuff before you buy some­thing, but it’ll basi­cal­ly just script the entire buy list.

[00:40:23] Cameron Reil­ly: So, uh, yeah. That’s where I’m hop­ing to get it to

[00:40:28] Tony Kynas­ton: Well done.

[00:40:29] Cameron Reil­ly: Hmm. Thanks. Uh, yeah. And I men­tioned to Tony off air that, um, Ope­nAI launched a thing called Deep Research in the last week that they’re slow­ly rolling out to dif­fer­ent ser­vice lev­els, but it’s incred­i­ble. Um, basi­cal­ly you can give it, uh, some­thing you want it to go and research on the web.

[00:40:51] Cameron Reil­ly: And it’ll go off and spend min­utes to hours research­ing this. Then it will write you a PhD lev­el report and present it back to you. And some of the ear­li­er, the peo­ple that have had ear­li­er access have been using it and they’re all com­ing back say­ing it’s incred­i­ble. Like it’s writ­ing PhD lev­el reports on very, very com­pli­cat­ed top­ics, going off and research­ing every­thing on the web and doing it.

[00:41:19] Cameron Reil­ly: So I’m hop­ing when I get access to this, twice a year I’ll be able to say to it, Here’s a list of stocks, which will be, you know, four

[00:41:26] Tony Kynas­ton: Four times a year.

[00:41:29] Cameron Reil­ly: times a year.

[00:41:29] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, some stocks, most stocks have mid year or end of cal­en­dar year

[00:41:39] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh yeah,

[00:41:39] Tony Kynas­ton: but some stocks come out in March and Sep­tem­ber.

[00:41:44] Cameron Reil­ly: Four times a year, um, I’ll have it go out and just, yeah, research all of the stocks, tell it to go to the web­site, grab the lat­est finan­cial report, look for evi­dence of a qual­i­fied audit. If you see it, flag it in a spread­sheet and we’ll just have an ongo­ing ref­er­ence to look at. But hope­ful­ly, I’ve tried to script that before and haven’t had any luck, but I think deep research, when that’s avail­able, will help.

[00:42:10] Cameron Reil­ly: I want to talk about MMS. Um, I men­tioned that briefly before that it dropped 10 per­cent on Fri­day. There was noth­ing real­ly in the news, but Jor­dan noticed that a bro­ker had down­grad­ed its tar­get price from 21 to 15. 80. And, um, that might have been the thing that did it. It was.

[00:42:39] Tony Kynas­ton: I saw that too. It was report­ed Bell Pot­ter down­grad­ed it.

[00:42:42] Cameron Reil­ly: Right. Well, thanks for that, Bell Pot­ter. Um. Ha ha

[00:42:48] Tony Kynas­ton: out and buy it. Now it’s gone down a price.

[00:42:52] Cameron Reil­ly: ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Maybe, yeah. Have you looked at ABA recent­ly? Cause we’ve, we’ve talked about this, oh fair,

[00:43:00] Tony Kynas­ton: No, I don’t want to.

[00:43:02] Cameron Reil­ly: You don’t want to, Tony got burnt with ABA. It’s still hap­pen­ing. Like it’s been going on for, yeah, it’s been going on for months now. Um, ABA has this thing where the share price will just sort of plum­met at the end of the day and then recov­er the next morn­ing.

[00:43:23] Cameron Reil­ly: It’s been going on for months. It’s quite bizarre and, uh,

[00:43:31] Tony Kynas­ton: it trig­gered a sell for me, and the share price has gone up since then, so yeah,

[00:43:36] Cameron Reil­ly: it keeps going up. But it keeps like, hav­ing like a 5 10 per­cent drop at the end of day, and then it’ll recov­er the next day. And then repeat, rinse and repeat once a week. Don’t know what’s going on.

[00:43:52] Tony Kynas­ton: No, I don’t either.

[00:43:54] Cameron Reil­ly: Jer­ry asks, or Jer­ry has a bunch of ques­tions. Thank you to Jer­ry, uh, for send­ing in some ques­tions. He says, Hi Cam, giv­en the lack of ques­tions late­ly, I thought I’d throw in a few that have prob­a­bly been asked before when I was­n’t pay­ing atten­tion.

[00:44:07] Cameron Reil­ly: And there’s no prob­lem with ask­ing ques­tions that have been asked before. Jer­ry, we all need the reminders. Num­ber one, the cur­rent buy list is almost all stocks that I either own or that I have Rule 1 or 3PL sold in the past, some­times mul­ti­ple times. At what point, if any, do you just ignore stocks that you’ve had a sell in the past and accept that you’re nev­er going to be friends?

[00:44:28] Cameron Reil­ly: CKAM ver­sus Apol­lo Tourism and Leisure. Does TK con­sid­er the Apol­lo fac­tor when buy­ing stocks or keep going back for more poten­tial pain?

[00:44:38] Tony Kynas­ton: I keep going back. But I haven’t, I don’t think I’ve had a Polo Tourism and Leisure type stock, I can’t think of any. Um, and I think the oth­er inter­est­ing part, uh, inter­est­ing point, and I know this is every week when I’m try­ing to find a new stock to do a full talk on. Um, the last, I don’t know, 12 months, I’m going to say, we seem to have the same gang of stocks on the buy list that, um, is a bit dif­fer­ent to, I mean, stocks come and go off the buy list, but um, in the past it was, was­n’t unusu­al to see, I don’t know, a Mac­quar­ie Group or a Comm­Bank or JB Hi Fi or, you know, some stocks we don’t reg­u­lar­ly see on the buy list pop up for a while and, you know, get bought and the stock price march­es on and they come off the buy list.

[00:45:31] Tony Kynas­ton: And we just haven’t seen much of that in the last lit­tle while, so I’m won­der­ing if that’s anoth­er sign the mar­ket’s, You know, it’s top­py and we’re not see­ing some of those stocks revert back to their mean and become decent­ly priced enough for us to be inter­est­ed in them. But, um, yeah, no, look, I, I, I’m not put off by stocks that I’ve bought and sold in the past.

[00:45:53] Tony Kynas­ton: And actu­al­ly maybe Cred­it Corp is the one I can point to where I bought it a cou­ple of times, um, and still go back to the world. Uh, but yeah, no, it’s not a con­sid­er­a­tion for me.

[00:46:05] Cameron Reil­ly: And, you know, Ger­ry, Apol­lo Tourism aside, which I don’t have to wor­ry about because they don’t exist any­more, but I don’t think they got qui­et or they, some­thing hap­pened.

[00:46:14] Tony Kynas­ton: They merged, I think.

[00:46:15] Cameron Reil­ly: For new lis­ten­ers, back in the ear­ly days of the show, I bought and sold them sev­er­al times in a peri­od of about six months and said, that’s it!

[00:46:22] Cameron Reil­ly: But I did buy them again, I think, because I grit­ted my teeth, like I had to do with Sev­en West Media yes­ter­day. I

[00:46:29] Tony Kynas­ton: Myer’s anoth­er one for you.

[00:46:31] Cameron Reil­ly: Myer, Mac­quar­ie, Mac­quar­ie I’ve bought and sold more times and always lose mon­ey on it. I’ve nev­er had a win with Mac­quar­ie. Yeah, no, I believe, I trust the sys­tem, even though it, you know, I buy it going, I know this is going to break my heart, but it’s like, you know, we’ve all had girl­friends like that recent­ly, or boyfriends, you know, you go back to the well, you know, this is, you know, it’s not going to end well, but, you

[00:46:56] Tony Kynas­ton: They’re, they’re attrac­tive.

[00:46:58] Cameron Reil­ly: they’re crazy.

[00:46:59] Cameron Reil­ly: And the sex is great, but you know it’s going to end in tears, but you have to go back to the crazy world every now and again. Uh,

[00:47:08] Tony Kynas­ton: and I must admit like, I mean, one of my mus­ings has been whether there needs to be a dif­fer­ent set of rules for these kinds of stocks because,

[00:47:17] Cameron Reil­ly: the crazy girl­friend rule.

[00:47:19] Tony Kynas­ton: well, I’m think­ing more of the stocks that we, Mac­quar­ie or JB Hi Fi, good qual­i­ty stocks that come onto the buy list. I’ll say momen­tar­i­ly, um, and then we, as you say, we tend to have to sell them again and then they sort of shoot up, but if we kind of did­n’t take that first trig­ger, or we held on through that first trig­ger, they often go on to dou­ble their price.

[00:47:45] Tony Kynas­ton: Well,

[00:47:52] Cameron Reil­ly: I’m going to look to see what hap­pened with that because I’d for­got­ten about that. ASG. Oh, I sold it. Laugh­ter.

[00:48:01] Tony Kynas­ton: because I owned JB Hi Fi about 18 months ago, I think, and now the share price is about dou­ble what I sold it for. And I only know this because they were in the paper today, because they’ve just report­ed. Um, but, uh, Yeah, I don’t know. don’t have a set of rules for keep­ing a hold of those com­pa­nies.

[00:48:19] Tony Kynas­ton: The sort of thing I thought of was if it was like a, um, a very large mar­ket cap stock, we might, and it comes on the buy list, we might be a bit more for­giv­ing. But I haven’t come up with a way of set­ting up some rules for that.

[00:48:32] Cameron Reil­ly: I final­ly sold ASG when it became a three point trend­line sell back in the 18th of Novem­ber. Um, I bought it at about 2. 70, sold it at 2. 05, it’s cur­rent­ly 1. 77.

[00:48:48] Tony Kynas­ton: So it worked!

[00:48:49] Cameron Reil­ly: so it worked. Yeah, it went down to 1. 67 at one stage, yeah, recent­ly. Oh, yeah, it’s dropped from 2. 43 in Octo­ber, end of Octo­ber. Down to 1. 77 now, so there you go.

[00:49:05] Cameron Reil­ly: Three point trend line, sell, saved me there, but yeah. Yeah, so maybe, maybe some more for­give­ness for some of those stocks.

[00:49:17] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, I mean, the rules work as they did in your case, but there is a bit of regret when you buy a Comm­Bank at 80 bucks or what­ev­er it was and sell it because it trig­gered a stop loss and then it goes up to 150 or 160, what­ev­er it is today.

[00:49:34] Cameron Reil­ly: Sec­ond thing from Jer­ry, bad news sales. Is there a trig­ger for bad news to be no longer rel­e­vant? Oh, this is what you were talk­ing about ear­li­er. Enough time passed, a set of good results, etc. If Fortes­cue los­es their CFO and half their exec­u­tive team and you sell it, are you wait­ing for a new team to set­tle and staff turnover to stop?

[00:49:50] Cameron Reil­ly: Or if they release results and they don’t seem to be impact­ed, do you then ignore the bad news? So you said sen­ti­ment ear­li­er.

[00:49:56] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, I think we have to use sen­ti­ment. Because oth­er peo­ple who know more about Fortes­cue are mak­ing, you know, big mon­ey deci­sions about whether it’s a buy or not. So I think, I think Ger­ry’s right, there is a peri­od of mourn­ing and then a peri­od of for­give­ness, but, uh, you know, buy­ing stocks on the stock mar­ket is all about risk and reward and when the price gets cheap enough, the mon­ey comes back.

[00:50:24] Cameron Reil­ly: Again, it just reminds me of the crazy ex girl­friend rule. Like, even­tu­al­ly, even­tu­al­ly you go back.

[00:50:30] Tony Kynas­ton: That depend­ing on how much you had to drink. Ha

[00:50:33] Cameron Reil­ly: Depend­ing on sen­ti­ment, yeah.

[00:50:34] Tony Kynas­ton: ha, sen­ti­ment. Yeah.

[00:50:37] Cameron Reil­ly: there’s enough guys that seem to be going back there, so maybe I’ll go back too. I mean, like,

[00:50:44] Tony Kynas­ton: I think, I think also at the moment in the mar­ket too, it’s like, there’s not much else to buy. So you start look­ing at stocks like FMG again.

[00:50:53] Cameron Reil­ly: There’s not much to buy? Well, that’s true. Some­body,

[00:50:56] Tony Kynas­ton: At least a high a DT.

[00:50:58] Cameron Reil­ly: well, even, like, not, like, um, some­body, one of the Lite sub­scribers sent me an email the oth­er day say­ing that the stocks that I rec­om­mend­ed for Lite sub­scribers last week I’d rec­om­mend­ed a cou­ple of weeks ear­li­er. Um, he said, was that all that was on the buy list?

[00:51:13] Cameron Reil­ly: And I was like, well, no, there was a lot on the buy list, but most of the stocks, when I looked, were hav­ing a down day. There was only five or six, and we already owned four of those. And the two that we did­n’t. had low ADTs and I think one of them was SWM too, which I was avoid­ing. But then I You know, gave up yes­ter­day.

[00:51:35] Cameron Reil­ly: But, um, no, there’s E Road, I think was anoth­er one, which is a low ADT.

[00:51:39] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, it is.

[00:51:40] Cameron Reil­ly: But yeah, there was­n’t a lot to buy because it was a down day for near­ly every­thing that was on the buy list when I looked last week.

[00:51:46] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Same

[00:51:47] Cameron Reil­ly: Jer­ry also asks, Mar­ket peaks, even though the mar­ket is cur­rent­ly at all time highs, I’ve had a cou­ple of sells, WGX and MMS, so I’m sit­ting on cash.

[00:51:57] Cameron Reil­ly: In the past, when I’ve bought stocks at mar­ket Peaks. More often than not, I’ve end­ed up with rule one sell as the mar­ket regress due to the Cameron indi­ca­tor. You did­n’t say that, but that’s what peo­ple will say in the future. Is this more of a com­ment than a ques­tion as I think I know the answer. No one rings a bell at the top.

[00:52:14] Cameron Reil­ly: Stave ful­ly invest­ed.

[00:52:16] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm . Yep. That’s the answer, Jer­ry. Yeah. And you know, like, like we’re say­ing, the sys­tem takes care of itself. Uh, I was look­ing for some­thing to buy towards the end of last week and there was­n’t any­thing there. ’cause every­thing was down hav­ing a down day. So, um, you know, that’s. What hap­pens at the top of the mar­ket?

[00:52:36] Tony Kynas­ton: There’s lit­tle to buy.

[00:52:40] Cameron Reil­ly: that’s right. But you know, if you went back to, let’s say, uh, Jan­u­ary last year, you could have said the mar­ket’s at an all time high when it was at 7.

[00:52:53] Tony Kynas­ton: Cor­rect.

[00:52:54] Cameron Reil­ly: I’m not buy­ing any­thing and now it’s at 8. 7. It’s gone up a thou­sand points since then in the last year. So, as you say, no one rings a bell at the top. We nev­er know.

[00:53:04] Tony Kynas­ton: That’s right. And Jer­ry, that’s right. If you can pre­dict the top of the mar­ket, you’re a genius, but I haven’t been able to. Yeah.

[00:53:11] Cameron Reil­ly: Tell us how to do it, we’ll, we’ll, we’ll join, we’ll join your sys­tem.

[00:53:17] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, exact­ly.

[00:53:18] Cameron Reil­ly: Good, thank you Ger­ry, all good ques­tions

[00:53:21] Tony Kynas­ton: Mmm, very

[00:53:22] Cameron Reil­ly: know, good self answer­ing, um, too. Jer­ry. Oh, Jer­ry obvi­ous­ly gets it, you know, he’s answer­ing his own ques­tions cor­rect­ly. So yeah, well done, Jer­ry. Um,

[00:53:34] Tony Kynas­ton: I always score well on tests when I answer my own ques­tions cor­rect­ly.

[00:53:40] Cameron Reil­ly: and Dave from Newey. Good old Dave from Newey. He says, Hap­py 2025. I don’t have a ques­tion, more of a share. The COVID cough will roll off 5 year 3PTL charts from next month. A lot of stocks L1 is either March 2020 or with­in a cou­ple of months of that. Also, a few stocks will have a new L1 every cou­ple of months for most of this year.

[00:54:05] Cameron Reil­ly: So keep an eye on sell lines as they’ll like­ly change a lot over the rest of this year for a bunch of stocks. MLX and MMS are good large ish stock exam­ples from the cur­rent buy list. CAA and KOV, good small stock exam­ples. Oh, don’t tell me that about KOV. That’s my good light stock that Tony men­tioned ear­li­er.

[00:54:26] Cameron Reil­ly: Cheers, Dave from Newey. Yeah, real­ly good insight. Dave?

[00:54:31] Tony Kynas­ton: so to speak.

[00:54:32] Cameron Reil­ly: Isn’t that crazy that it’s been five years since the COVID cough next month? That’s crazy!

[00:54:39] Tony Kynas­ton: it is. It’s gone quick­ly, has­n’t it?

[00:54:41] Cameron Reil­ly: shit, like it real­ly has, like, five years since COVID hit. Oh my God,

[00:54:48] Tony Kynas­ton: Mmm.

[00:54:49] Cameron Reil­ly: that’s insane.

[00:54:52] Tony Kynas­ton: That was my take on it too, but, yeah, Dav­e’s exact­ly right. And, uh, the COVID cough is the low point for most stocks, if not all of them. And in the next month or two it’s going to roll off the five year graphs and there­fore some­thing else will be the low point. But that’s rea­son­able because, you know, com­ing out of the COVID cost, every­thing, most things were going up, so, the idea of the five year graphs and the, So, the highs and low points is to put guardrails around the trends and, um, you know, take COVID out of the equa­tion and the trend line changes a lit­tle bit.

[00:55:26] Tony Kynas­ton: So, um, it’s, it’s a valid thing to hap­pen, but it’s going to have dif­fer­ent reper­cus­sions for each of those stocks Dave spoke about. So, MMS, I think, is The sell, it’s, MMS is about 4 cents above it’s sell line now, but in 2 months time that line is going to go down I think, so it will actu­al­ly get fur­ther away from it’s sell line, where­as some of the oth­er stocks get a bit clos­er to the sell line, but from mem­o­ry Kor­vest is still way above. It’s cur­rent sell line and it’s pro­ject­ed one too.

[00:55:56] Cameron Reil­ly: I just looked at Kor­vest. Um, so it’s cur­rent sell price is about 8. It’s trad­ing at 10. 85. When I move the L1, um, out past the 1st of, um, April, it goes to the 1st of May. Sor­ry. When I move it out, um, The date on the bread­e­la­tors is the 1st of May, the low point becomes April 21, L1, and the sell price goes up from 8 to 9.

[00:56:30] Cameron Reil­ly: 67, but it’s at 10. 85, so yeah, it’s still way above that. But, um, yeah, it’ll be inter­est­ing to see what get affect­ed, what stocks get affect­ed. That may change the Cameron Indi­ca­tor! Because a lot of stocks may get clos­er to their sell line, we’ll see. Well, that’s it. That’s, uh, that’s all the stuff that I’ve got. You’ve now got your pulled pork. Who are you gonna Pull for us today, Tony.

[00:56:59] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, inter­est­ing one, and I, um, I picked it because it’s Grange Resources, GRR is the code. I picked it because it’s the top of the buy list. I did it many years ago. But not recent­ly, so I thought I’d do it again. And in my research, I found a cou­ple of inter­est­ing things. The oth­er thing to point out is that when I did the analy­sis, it was on Alex’s down­load from the week­end when the price was 0.

[00:57:28] Tony Kynas­ton: 235. The share price I checked before we came on is now at a sell price of 0. 22. So peo­ple need to be aware that this is either now a sell or if it Bumps back up the next day or so, it’s pret­ty close to the sell line.

[00:57:45] Cameron Reil­ly: But then you said you think iron ore, it’s an iron ore stock, is near­ly a buy, so I would have thought it would be going in the oth­er direc­tion.

[00:57:52] Tony Kynas­ton: I did too, but as we go through the

[00:57:54] Cameron Reil­ly: out with

[00:57:54] Tony Kynas­ton: pork, yeah, results are great. But as we go through the pulled pork, we’ll see that the prob­lem is, um, they’ve announced that they might be shut­ting the mine in a year or two. So that’s weigh­ing on the stock. So it’s, it’s, it’s changed from being a, well, it still is a great cash flow gen­er­a­tor, and you can buy it for less than one times cash flow at the moment, but there’s a good chance that the cash flow will last for anoth­er two years.

[00:58:19] Tony Kynas­ton: So that’s why the mar­ket’s walked away from it. Um, but let me go through

[00:58:24] Cameron Reil­ly: sor­ry, I just noticed that when the quar­ter­ly report came out at the end of Jan­u­ary, the share price went up 15%.

[00:58:30] Tony Kynas­ton: it. Mmm, num­bers were good.

[00:58:32] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, okay.

[00:58:35] Tony Kynas­ton: okay, so, uh, for peo­ple who don’t know, Grange is based in Tas­ma­nia, which is kind of an unusu­al place for an iron ore com­pa­ny, but appar­ent­ly mag­netite’s been found in Tas­ma­nia in the north­east for over a hun­dred years, and Grange, in one form or anoth­er, has been going for over 55 years.

[00:58:53] Tony Kynas­ton: It’s based in, or near Burnie, in the north­east of Tas­ma­nia. The dif­fer­ence with Grange is they pro­duce very high con­cen­trates. Iron ore, and they pro­duce it in pal­let form, uh, and the rea­son they do that, even though it requires a lot of, well, a lit­tle bit more pro­cess­ing than just sim­ply dig­ging it out of the ground and send­ing it off to Chi­na, is because iron ore pal­lets are high­er in con­cen­trat­ed, uh, iron ore, Um, fer­rous oxide than just, uh, the lumps that come out of the ground and, uh, there­fore it’s bet­ter for the blast fur­naces that use it to make steel.

[00:59:31] Tony Kynas­ton: So they, they, they pro­duce less slag and, uh, uh, less, it costs, takes less ener­gy to burn the pel­lets and it’s bet­ter emis­sions. So they’re con­sid­ered to be, um, a bet­ter prod­uct. On the flip side, it’s being shipped from Tas­ma­nia rather than from North­west WA, and so the trans­porta­tion costs are high­er, but giv­en a bet­ter con­cen­tra­tion avail­able, um, it’s, it’s com­pet­i­tive in the mar­ket.

[01:00:04] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, they oper­ate, uh, main­ly in a place called Sav­age Riv­er, and that’s the name of the iron ore mine. It’s a hun­dred kilo­me­ters south­west of the city of Bur­ney, and, uh, It also oper­ates a plant to pro­duce the pel­lets in a facil­i­ty called Port Lat­ta, which is 70km north­west of Burnie on the coast. So, two oper­a­tions for this com­pa­ny, both near Burnie.

[01:00:32] Tony Kynas­ton: They have picked up a ten­e­ment in WA. And I thought it inter­est­ing that they picked up a ten­e­ment 90km away from Albany, which is in the south of WA, where­as the Pil­bara where most of the iron ore mines are is in the north. So, I don’t know if this com­pa­ny likes being in the bot­tom end of the con­ti­nent or not, but um, that’s where they’ve been, uh, been explor­ing.

[01:00:56] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, the, the, Project in Albany is called the South­down Mag­netite Project and if it comes to fruition, it’s, it’s quite, uh, quite large with all reserves of 388 mil­lion tonnes. So, um, worth pro­gress­ing. They’ve been work­ing on it now for a long time and they’ve announced that they’re at the stage of look­ing for equi­ty part­ners and get­ting final approvals to bring it to mar­ket.

[01:01:24] Tony Kynas­ton: Bear that in mind. Um, The oth­er thing to note about this com­pa­ny is that it’s near­ly half owned by a Chi­nese steel­mak­er called Shi­jian Inter­na­tion­al. They cur­rent­ly own just under 49 per­cent and they’re a large steel­mak­ing com­pa­ny com­ing out of Chi­na. Uh, they’re in the For­tune Glob­al 500 and way back in 2009 they took a 69 per­cent stake in Grange and they slow­ly sold down to just under half in that inter­ven­ing peri­od.

[01:01:58] Tony Kynas­ton: All looks okay at the moment but, um, towards the end of last year the, uh, the com­pa­ny had to come out and announce that Their plans for expand­ing the Sav­age Riv­er mine, which is due to fin­ish in 2027, um, onwards, so they said 2027 to 2029, uh, are being put on hold. So basi­cal­ly what they were doing was they were inves­ti­gat­ing and doing a fea­si­bil­i­ty report for build­ing an under­ground mine under the open cut mine at Sav­age Riv­er and they announced the results of that fea­si­bil­i­ty study back in about Jan­u­ary of last year and the share price has been in decline ever since then.

[01:02:48] Tony Kynas­ton: I could­n’t find out exact­ly why but in read­ing the report I think what may have hap­pened is that The report says that there’ll be a lull in the min­ing of iron ore and pro­cess­ing of pal­lets in 2027 for a year or two because they have to shut the open cut mine first to build the under­ground mine under­neath it.

[01:03:08] Tony Kynas­ton: So I sus­pect, you know, that put a spook in the mar­ket that there was going to be a cou­ple of years when Cash flow would be down, uh, but I can’t defin­i­tive­ly say that’s the case or not. Uh, so, how­ev­er, at that stage they were say­ing, big tick, pro­jec­t’s going to go ahead. In the last month or two, the board­’s come out in Jan­u­ary, fol­low­ing an arti­cle on the Fin in Decem­ber, say­ing that, uh, actu­al­ly at the cur­rent iron ore price, they’re not going to go ahead with the open cut mine.

[01:03:37] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, so basi­cal­ly it’s, Pull up stubs in about three or four years, any­where between two and four years, which has then spooked the mar­ket even more. I’ll read from the Fin Review from Decem­ber 17, 2024. One of Tas­ma­ni­a’s biggest employ­ers has warned that its 1. 3 bil­lion plan to expand The Sav­age Riv­er mine south is unvi­able at fore­cast iron ore prices.

[01:04:03] Tony Kynas­ton: Grange Resources, which con­tributes near­ly half of the state’s min­ing tax rev­enue, has planned to trans­form its rapid­ly deplet­ing open pit oper­a­tion to an under­ground mine on Tas­ma­ni­a’s west­ern coast. The mine’s out­put will begin falling in 2027, and it is expect­ed not to pro­duce any­thing by about 2029.

[01:04:23] Tony Kynas­ton: If the site, which pro­duces high grade iron ore con­cen­trate shipped from a jet­ty near Bur­ney, Does not process progress with the yet pro­posed under­ground expan­sion. Uh, dah dah dee dah dee dah. Grange Resources fea­si­bil­i­ty study for the under­ground project reveals it will cost about 94 per ton to dig up iron ore over the life of the mine, and about 80 per ton once the full exten­sion is com­plete by 2030.

[01:04:49] Tony Kynas­ton: But these costs exclude ship­ping from a remote jet­ty in Tas­ma­nia, gov­ern­ment tax­es, and oth­er costs. Gov­ern­ment Roy­al­ties. Grange Resources does not esti­mate ship­ping costs in the study pub­lished by the mar­ket. How­ev­er, freight costs are high­er from Tas­ma­nia than from the Pil­bara. High­er grade iron ore trades cur­rent­ly at 120 per ton on the Sin­ga­pore Futures Exchange, but bro­kers are tip­ping the iron ore price will decline next year and through to the end of the decade.

[01:05:17] Tony Kynas­ton: Gold­man Sachs expects a 10 per­cent fall next year. And we’ll Grange Resources com­mands a pre­mi­um thanks to its high grade out­put, boast­ing 65 per­cent iron con­tent, 3 per­cent­age points above the bench­mark. The cost of pro­duc­tion at the expand­ed mine means that the com­pa­ny would bare­ly be break­ing even at today’s prices.

[01:05:38] Tony Kynas­ton: Grange Resources said it would update the mar­ket if any­thing changes. Our focus will be on the con­tin­ued deliv­ery of iron. All from the open pit as we reassess the tim­ing of the com­mence­ment of under­ground pro­duc­tion, it said. Grange is one of the state’s largest employ­ers with 680 staff and one of Tas­ma­ni­a’s top tax­pay­ers pay­ing 23 mil­lion in min­er­al roy­al­ties.

[01:06:00] Tony Kynas­ton: Work on South­down, that’s the one in Albany and WA. Progress is and may plug the gap if Tas­ma­nia shuts. How­ev­er, some approvals look like they are still required and the mine may start in an abridged form. This, this stock is becom­ing more of a sto­ry type stock. Um, even though it’s throw­ing off lots of cash, the cash is like­ly to come to a stand­still in the fore­see­able future, unless some­thing hap­pens.

[01:06:29] Tony Kynas­ton: Now what could hap­pen, um, iron ore price turns up, in which case it becomes fea­si­ble and they start to build the under­ground mine. Uh, they get, uh, Uh, the right approvals and the right part­ners on South Down, um, in WA, and move the mine to there. Uh, but that’s a fair bit of work. Um, or, being the largest employ­er in Tas­ma­nia, the gov­ern­ment says, um, we might cre­ate a pack­age of incen­tives to have you stay in the state.

[01:07:01] Tony Kynas­ton: So, I sus­pect My take on this com­pa­ny is that it’s bounc­ing around at the bot­tom of its stock price at the moment. It’s just become a sell for us, but there is scope to re rate if they can solve the ongo­ing min­ing of iron ore prob­lem. And you have to think that there’s a lot of peo­ple with vest­ed inter­ests in them doing that, includ­ing man­age­ment, but also per­haps the Tas­man­ian gov­ern­ment.

[01:07:27] Tony Kynas­ton: So a solu­tion may be found, but what­ev­er hap­pens, it’s going to be dri­ven by announce­ments now to price rather than by Fun­da­men­tals in the com­pa­ny. So to go through the num­bers, stock price for the analy­sis is 0. 235, which as I said is above where it is now. No stock bro­kers pub­lish analy­sis on this com­pa­ny, there­fore there is no con­sen­sus fore­cast, nor fore­cast earn­ings per share, or which means no OV2.

[01:07:54] Tony Kynas­ton: Yield is cur­rent­ly over 10%, but the ques­tion, that’s a ques­tion mark on that. Is it sus­tain­able? Even if they keep pay­ing that rate for the next cou­ple of years. I sus­pect they might decide to stock­pile some cash in case they need it, um, while they work out what to do. So I would­n’t be sur­prised to see a stock, a div­i­dend cut on this com­pa­ny in the next results.

[01:08:19] Tony Kynas­ton: But cur­rent­ly it scores high­ly for us. It’s above bank debt and it’s above the PE for the com­pa­ny. Stock Doc­tor finan­cial health is strong and the trend is steady. But again, for how long? Stock­o­pe­dia qual­i­ty rank­ing is 93, based on an F score for health of 6 out of 9, which is good. Stock­o­pe­dia val­ue rank is 99 out of 100, which is great.

[01:08:42] Tony Kynas­ton: How­ev­er, it’s almost rock bot­tom for momen­tum because the sen­ti­men­t’s gone down. So, uh, the stock, the Stock­o­pe­dia rank­ing for momen­tum is down. 10 out of 100. Um, and the over­all Stock­o­pe­dia rank­ing is there­fore dragged down to 75. So they rank it kind of how I do. It’s, all the met­rics are good, but sen­ti­men­t’s bad.

[01:09:03] Tony Kynas­ton: It’s below our buy. It’s, well, it’s actu­al­ly a sell. Uh, PE is 2. 5 times, um, which strange­ly enough is not the high­est or the low­est in the last three years giv­en it’s that low, um, so we can’t score it on that. Prop­Caf is less than one at 0. 96 times, so it throws off lots of cash and we can buy it at one times cash, but the ques­tion is for how long.

[01:09:25] Tony Kynas­ton: IV1 is 47 cents and the cur­rent price is 22, so it’s way below, um, what you would cal­cu­late the price to be based on its num­bers. There’s no IV2. 2 because there’s no fore­cast earn­ings per share. Now the equi­ty per share for the com­pa­ny is 89 cents, which means we can buy it at a quar­ter of book val­ue.

[01:09:45] Tony Kynas­ton: Again, reflect­ing the fact that peo­ple are won­der­ing how long the assets are going to be around for.

[01:09:50] Cameron Reil­ly: Hmm.

[01:09:50] Tony Kynas­ton: I’ve scored it a zero for own­er founder. Um, even though Sha­gang owns near­ly half the stock and gets to appoint some of the direc­tors or the con­trol­ling num­ber of direc­tors on the board, they’re not real­ly the own­er founders.

[01:10:03] Tony Kynas­ton: So, um, I’m not going to score it for that. Don’t real­ly need to because the qual­i­ty score is so high. There has been con­sis­tent­ly increas­ing equi­ty and the PE is less than yield so they both get scores which means the sum of the qual­i­ty is 12 out of 13 or 92 per­cent for qual­i­ty and 0. QAV score which is very high and puts it at the top of the buy­er list.

[01:10:27] Tony Kynas­ton: So yeah, all I can say is Um, go on Sen­ti­ment with this one. On the num­bers it’s fan­tas­tic, but, uh, it’s real­ly a sto­ry stock now. As soon as they announce. One way or the oth­er, what they’re doing, whether it’s shut­ting up South­down in a cou­ple of years time, or whether, oh sor­ry, Sav­age Riv­er, or whether it’s get­ting South­down and WA run­ning, or whether it’s get­ting the open cut run­ning, whether it’s get­ting gov­ern­ment sup­port, which makes all that hap­pen, or whether it’s not.

[01:10:54] Tony Kynas­ton: The share price is going to be dri­ven by, um, by the sto­ry going for­ward.

[01:10:59] Cameron Reil­ly: So just to be clear, it’s at the top of the buy list, but it’s actu­al­ly a sell. And in the buy list, we can’t buy it because we say Iron Ore’s a sell, but Iron Ore’s actu­al­ly a buy. So just to be clear on those things, don’t trust any­thing on the buy list when it comes to GRR.

[01:11:15] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, as we always say, before you buy some­thing, do the more up to date research.

[01:11:19] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, and it’s changed. Both of those things have been updat­ed in the last 24 hours since we put it out. All right. Thank you, TK. That’s G R R. And that brings us to after hours, Tony. Baf­fleck,

[01:11:36] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, yeah, not much for me. A cou­ple of hors­es, um, on the go. Baf­fleck ran third. Yep.

[01:11:42] Cameron Reil­ly: Baf­fleck, real­ly? Ben Affleck? You named your horse Baf­fleck? Ben Affleck.

[01:11:45] Tony Kynas­ton: did­n’t name it, but some­one else did. Um, it’s, it’s, uh, moth­er is called J Lo, so we call, it was called Baf­fler. Yeah, ran third on Sun­day, and I think we’ll win a race. It needs to go out in dis­tance. It’s next start will prob­a­bly be at 2400 meters, so, um, and, uh, one called Lake For­est is run­ning tomor­row, just to be aware.

[01:12:09] Tony Kynas­ton: I put the details on the Face­book group. Um, fun­ny sto­ry about Lake For­est. I’d breath it. Uh, and sold it, and now we’ve bought back into it, because it was a good one. Put up for resale on an online auc­tion, so we bought back into it, the oth­er breed­er and myself. Um, fun­ny sto­ry is, noth­ing fun­ny about that, we just thought it was a great oppor­tu­ni­ty.

[01:12:31] Tony Kynas­ton: Fun­ny sto­ry though is that, um, I’ve nev­er seen this hap­pen before, but anoth­er horse called Lake For­est from over­seas won a mil­lion dol­lar race. in the Spring Car­ni­val last year. So don’t be con­fused, ours is not the mil­lion dol­lar horse. Nor­mal­ly when an over­seas horse comes to Aus­tralia and there’s an exist­ing horse with the same name, they have to change their name.

[01:12:53] Tony Kynas­ton: So you often see hors­es will be called some­thing like My Lake For­est or Our Lake For­est to get around the dou­ble nam­ing, but they did­n’t have to for some rea­son. Any­way, it’s not the Lake For­est that has earnt lots of prize mon­ey, it’s Our Lake For­est run­ning in the provin­cials tomor­row. But, um, it’s a good horse.

[01:13:14] Cameron Reil­ly: That reminds me of a sto­ry I read this morn­ing about movies hav­ing the same name. They were talk­ing about how, you know, tra­di­tion­al­ly you would­n’t have two movies come out at the same time with the same name, but Net­flix has been doing that recent­ly. Putting out movies that it’s made. There’s one, two movies called The Bub­ble that came out the same time on Net­flix last year.

[01:13:38] Cameron Reil­ly: There was a Judd Apa­tow com­e­dy, and maybe it was before last year. And then there was a Japan­ese ani­mat­ed film, and they had the same name, and they both came out. And the arti­cle was say­ing the thing is that Net­flix does­n’t give a shit. Is it like, tra­di­tion­al­ly, movies had to sur­vive on get­ting bums in seats, or, you know, buy­ing the DVD, buy­ing the, you know, down­load, what­ev­er it is, and so you had to sep­a­rate your movie from the rest of the movies, and blah blah blah blah blah.

[01:14:09] Cameron Reil­ly: Net­flix does­n’t care if the movie does well, the movie does­n’t do well, because it’s all the same. They just need con­tent. And, you know, so they just buy stuff to fill up the chan­nel. It does­n’t mat­ter if it does well, does­n’t do well. Peo­ple watch it. Peo­ple don’t watch it. How the busi­ness mod­el for movies is com­plete­ly dif­fer­ent now when it comes to Net­flix.

[01:14:26] Cameron Reil­ly: It’s just, you wan­na know why there’s a lot of shit on Net­flix is because Net­flix don’t care. It’s just like, yeah. Is is it a movie? Good. You know? We’ll have it. Yeah. We’ll put it up there.

[01:14:36] Tony Kynas­ton: And you think 7Westmedia’s bad. ha ha

[01:14:39] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah,

[01:14:43] Tony Kynas­ton: ha! Don’t you hate that, though? Like you, like, I do it all the time, I’ll, I’ll jump onto Net­flix, and I’ll go, Nah, noth­ing there. Then I’ll jump onto Apple, eh, noth­ing great there. I go through the whole lot, think to myself, I’m pay­ing, you know, 15 bucks a month for each of these, and I can’t find a damn thing to watch.

[01:15:00] Cameron Reil­ly: you’re lucky if you’re only pay­ing 15 a month. 15 US, prob­a­bly more like 20. Well, I’ve got, I’ve got the dif­fer­ent prob­lem. I’ve got stuff that my kids keep telling me to watch and I just, Chris­sy and I have watched one episode of tele­vi­sion in the last two months. Like, we just, we nev­er get time to sit down and watch TV.

[01:15:20] Cameron Reil­ly: We watched the first episode of the new sea­son of Sev­er­ance this week. It’s, yeah, it’s real­ly good. It took us two sit­tings to get through it. Because she falls asleep halfway through it. Because we’re watch­ing it at like 10 o’clock at night. But yeah, we just don’t have time to watch stuff. I, if I’m watch­ing any­thing these days, it’s reruns of The Shield or some­thing like that.

[01:15:42] Cameron Reil­ly: Because I’ve got it on in the back­ground when

[01:15:43] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, okay.

[01:15:45] Cameron Reil­ly: doing the dish­es or some­thing like that. Yeah, we just don’t have time to watch TV or movies any­more these days. It’s just,

[01:15:52] Tony Kynas­ton: Alex was telling me she does that when she paints, she puts episodes on, and I rec­om­mend­ed Rivals to her, and um, she got that this, Rivals,

[01:16:01] Cameron Reil­ly: that’s the, that’s the David Who? David Ten­nant? David Who? Ha ha ha! Yeah, right.

[01:16:08] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. And she got that in gross by and she had to stop paint­ing and watch it.

[01:16:13] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, that’s the thing, like you rec­om­mend shows and Hunter rec­om­mends shows and I just, yeah, they’re all on the list, but we just don’t sit down and watch stuff. But we did watch that Sev­er­ance, it was good. Um, Well, but in my read­ing this week, I’m try­ing to read the, you know, I’m try­ing to get through the Le Carre, John Le

[01:16:33] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh yeah,

[01:16:34] Cameron Reil­ly: on his third one now, the Look­ing Glass War, which I’m enjoy­ing, but I’m inter­spers­ing between that and the Yes Min­is­ter scripts,

[01:16:43] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, okay.

[01:16:44] Cameron Reil­ly: which

[01:16:46] Tony Kynas­ton: They’re great aren’t they? Yeah.

[01:16:47] Cameron Reil­ly: god. So great. And even like, some­how, just as much fun, if not more fun to read

[01:16:55] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm

[01:16:55] Cameron Reil­ly: than to watch in a strange way. I mean, you know, the per­for­mances by Nigel Hawthorne and Paul Edding­ton are, you know, obvi­ous­ly stel­lar, but just even the read­ing of it is just I’ve got some quotes that I copied down, um, that I thought I’d share with you.

[01:17:14] Cameron Reil­ly: This is from the intro­duc­tion to the scripts in the You know, if peo­ple haven’t read it before, in the pub­lished ver­sion, they sort of make out that these are tak­en from the diaries of Hack­er and Um, Sir Humphrey, that’s the excerpts from their diaries that they’ve put for­ward. So that’s, but in the intro­duc­tion, the guys who wrote the scripts, who are mak­ing out, they, they com­piled this from the, the diaries.

[01:17:45] Cameron Reil­ly: They’re talk­ing about Hack­er and they’re say­ing, being a jour­nal­ist, Hack­er had no par­tic­u­lar tal­ent for report­ing facts. And they’re talk­ing about his diary entries. Also, years of polit­i­cal 20 words where one would be. do. Hack­er him­self processed events in a vari­ety of ways and the read­ers will have to make their own judge­ment as to whether any giv­en state­ment rep­re­sents A, what hap­pened, B, what he believed hap­pened, C, what he would like to have hap­pened, D, what What he want­ed oth­ers to believe hap­pened or E, what he want­ed oth­ers to believe that he believed hap­pened. And then the last one I’ve got is, this is from Hack­er’s Diary. Well, I said oppo­si­tion’s about ask­ing awk­ward ques­tions. Yes, said Sir Humphrey and gov­ern­ment is about not answer­ing them. I was sur­prised, but you answered all my ques­tions, did­n’t you? I com­ment­ed. I’m glad you thought so, Min­is­ter, said Sir Humphrey. It’s just,

[01:18:50] Tony Kynas­ton: That’s great,

[01:18:51] Cameron Reil­ly: like, first class stuff that holds up so well and is just an absolute mas­ter­class in, not only in writ­ing and act­ing, but in pol­i­tics. It’s just bril­liant. Beau­ti­ful­ly done. Those guys, it’s absolute­ly leg­endary.

[01:19:10] Tony Kynas­ton: I read those scripts. Back when I was at uni, actu­al­ly, when this TV series had just fin­ished. Um, and they were fan­tas­tic. Um, the only thing I’d say is, like, towards the end, you could tell the tem­plate they were using for each script. You know, there was an issue, um, there would be obfus­ca­tion, there was an obvi­ous polit­i­cal expe­di­en­cy, and then it’d be resolved.

[01:19:33] Cameron Reil­ly: Yes. Yeah, yeah. There was a for­mu­la

[01:19:36] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, but still real­ly good. I agree. Mag­ic.

[01:19:40] Cameron Reil­ly: Holds up.

[01:19:41] Tony Kynas­ton: Get­ting back to Le Carre, um, Look­ing Glass Wall is one of the weak­est, prob­a­bly the weak­est of his books.

[01:19:48] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, okay, real­ly?

[01:19:49] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, so I think he wrote a cou­ple after the first one, which was mag­nif­i­cent. And then I’m gonna say Tin­ker Tai­lor’s Sol­dier Spy came along that series, and that’s real­ly good.

[01:20:01] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, so they’re worth read­ing. And then, um, my favorite, like, I liked Le Carre almost as much after the Cold War, so when he was look­ing for oth­er things to write about. And The Night Man­ager’s just bril­liant.

[01:20:16] Cameron Reil­ly: Anoth­er TV series that I haven’t watched

[01:20:18] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, that’s good too, but the book’s par­tic­u­lar­ly good.

[01:20:22] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, I’m, I’m, This one is inter­est­ing. It’s a bit slow, but it’s kind of inter­est­ing. So far in the slow­ness, just its look at the, you know, the main char­ac­ters are just involved in this inter­minable bureau­cra­cy. They’re not the guys that are doing the cool stuff. They’ve got no bud­get.

[01:20:42] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

[01:20:42] Cameron Reil­ly: bor­ing. They’re try­ing to make the most of it.

[01:20:45] Cameron Reil­ly: And it’s just a slog, and they’re these mid­dle class, mid­dle lev­el bureau­crats that no one gives a shit about, and yeah, it’s kind of inter­est­ing.

[01:20:56] Tony Kynas­ton: very Slow Hors­es, isn’t it?

[01:20:59] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, I haven’t seen that

[01:21:00] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh!

[01:21:00] Cameron Reil­ly: but, uh, I know, right? That’s anoth­er one of the, all these shows that you’ve been telling me to watch that I just, um, I’ve got, you know, queued up. Yes.

[01:21:11] Tony Kynas­ton: Slow Hors­es could have been writ­ten by Le Carre, real­ly.

[01:21:14] Cameron Reil­ly: Have you seen any of Sev­er­ance yet?

[01:21:16] Tony Kynas­ton: the first series, not the

[01:21:18] Cameron Reil­ly: You saw that? Yeah,

[01:21:19] Tony Kynas­ton: loved it.

[01:21:21] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, Hunter and Tay­lor are both watch­ing the sec­ond series, and it’s com­ing out episode by episode, and I don’t have an Apple sub­scrip­tion, but Hunter got one to watch it, and then he, you know, he’s on my fam­i­ly plan, and he’s going, you got­ta watch it before I can­cel it, and blah, blah, blah.

[01:21:35] Cameron Reil­ly: And, uh They’re just every time I talk to them. Have you watched it yet? Have you watched it yet? Ah, you got­ta watch it. I need to talk to you about it. It’s so bloody good. Ah Dri­ving me nuts. But yeah, it’s I mean, it’s good but for no oth­er rea­son than I just love Totoro like and these and the boys haven’t seen all of the Coen Broth­ers Totoro films and I’m like, oh man, like you got­ta go and watch all of these All of the Totoro films in the Coen Broth­ers

[01:22:05] Tony Kynas­ton: Miller’s Cross­ing in par­tic­u­lar.

[01:22:07] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, Miller’s Cross­ing is fan­tas­tic, but even O

[01:22:10] Tony Kynas­ton: Look into your heart, look into your heart.

[01:22:13] Cameron Reil­ly: re watched Oh Broth­er Where Art Thou

[01:22:16] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, I nev­er liked that.

[01:22:17] Cameron Reil­ly: real­ly, oh, I love it. Um,

[01:22:20] Tony Kynas­ton: I think Clooney over­acts just too much for me in that.

[01:22:24] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, I think that’s part of the joy of it for me is his, his per­for­mance in that. That was the first time I think he’d done com­e­dy.

[01:22:32] Cameron Reil­ly: And I remem­ber being astound­ed at how well he could do that sort of over the top char­ac­ter com­e­dy. Um, and it’s, you know, it’s the. Coen Broth­ers often have a lot of over the top

[01:22:47] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, yeah. Rais­ing Ari­zona.

[01:22:50] Cameron Reil­ly: right, exact­ly. And, and Good­man’s char­ac­ter in Oh Broth­er We’re Out There was sort of over the top. There’s a lot of Good­man’s char­ac­ters have always been in Coen Broth­ers films.

[01:22:59] Cameron Reil­ly: Like, real­ly over the top. And even Turturro’s char­ac­ters, you know, real­ly exag­ger­at­ed

[01:23:05] Tony Kynas­ton: um, The Big Lebows­ki, yeah.

[01:23:06] Cameron Reil­ly: Hey Zeus, no one fucks with the Jesus. Yeah, I mean, and Good­man in that as well. And, and. You know, they have high­ly styl­ized, over the top char­ac­ter per­for­mances, but, um, I love, I’ve always just had this deep love for Totoro.

[01:23:27] Cameron Reil­ly: Did you watch The Night Of?

[01:23:31] Tony Kynas­ton: No, I watched the first episode and did­n’t get into it. Okay. Yeah,

[01:23:34] Cameron Reil­ly: very, very slow. But, yeah, I loved it, and his per­for­mance in it is just

[01:23:42] Tony Kynas­ton: I’ll go

[01:23:42] Cameron Reil­ly: So intri­cate, this char­ac­ter is so intri­cate and self absorbed and full of anx­i­ety and issues. It’s, yeah, he’s just such a great char­ac­ter actor. So, he’s always fas­ci­nat­ing. And his char­ac­ter in Sev­er­ance, you know, is like that.

[01:24:04] Cameron Reil­ly: Very dif­fer­ent to his nor­mal char­ac­ters. Very sort of straight laced and intro­vert­ed, any­way.

[01:24:12] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, good.

[01:24:14] Cameron Reil­ly: The only thing, the only prob­lem I have with watch­ing the new sea­son is it’s been so long since I’ve seen the first sea­son, and the first sea­son was so con­vo­lut­ed, the sto­ry­line, that I, we’ve been watch­ing it going, I can’t remem­ber.

[01:24:25] Cameron Reil­ly: They do a recap, but even the recap was­n’t enough. I need­ed, I need­ed an hour long recap. You know, Hunter sort of walked me through it over break­fast on Sun­day and I was like, Oh, yeah, because the boys sort of watched them back to back. They watched the first sea­son and then went straight into the sec­ond sea­son.

[01:24:42] Cameron Reil­ly: Any­who.

[01:24:43] Tony Kynas­ton: Yep. I’m almost fin­ished read­ing Sun­ny Boy, which is good.

[01:24:46] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, you’ve enjoyed it. So

[01:24:48] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, I have, yeah.

[01:24:49] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, okay.

[01:24:50] Tony Kynas­ton: The thing I think I found that I did­n’t know about so much about Paci­no, which I liked, was he did­n’t have any for­mal train­ing as an actor, but he real­ly got into, like, how can I put it, the clas­sics. And he got into Shake­speare, but I mean, like, things like, um, Dario Faux, and Bertolt Brecht, and, you know, peo­ple like that, that real­ly, like, I, I did first year dra­ma at uni, and we got to study those peo­ple, unless you did first year dra­ma, you’d nev­er prob­a­bly hear of them, and, um, uh, but they were con­sid­ered great play­wrights, um, you know, along with Tom Stop­pard and peo­ple like that, so his, his entry into Shake­speare.

[01:25:38] Tony Kynas­ton: Act­ing was through putting on lots of these kinds of obscure great plays by these unknown play­wrights and he got real­ly immersed in that whole, that, that whole sort of mid, mid, ear­ly to mid, um, last cen­tu­ry play­wrights that were doing real­ly inter­est­ing stuff. So, you know, I can’t just look at him as a movie actor, but he had a real sol­id ground­ing and his great love is for those kinds of works and Shake­speare as well.

[01:26:07] Tony Kynas­ton: He made that Look­ing for Richard or

[01:26:09] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, which I love. But did­n’t he, did­n’t he train with Lee Stras­berg? I mean, I thought that

[01:26:14] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, he did. He did get to the Actors Stu­dio and that’s prob­a­bly where he got exposed to it. But, um, but he did a lot of off Broad­way as well and put on a lot for these kind of plays. And, you know, he talks about being a real intro­vert and his great­est love was being told about a new play­wright and then read­ing it and going for walks in Cen­tral Park, recit­ing the lines and real­ly becom­ing immersed in it and find­ing new, new things, new plays to talk about and put on.

[01:26:41] Tony Kynas­ton: So some of them come from the actor’s stu­dio, but a lot came from just his cir­cle of friends as well.

[01:26:47] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, I like, it’s been a long time dream of mine to see Paci­no on stage doing some­thing like Richard III, which is one of my Favorite plays. And, uh, yeah, his per­for­mance of it is leg­endary. I mean, he touched on it in the Look­ing for Richard, but you know, there’s. Sto­ries of him doing it on stage. He’s done it a num­ber of times, I think, on stage.

[01:27:11] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, I think he’s past it now. I don’t know if he’s doing much stage work now. He’s in his 80s now, I think. But, um, would have been great to see him in his hey­day.

[01:27:20] Tony Kynas­ton: well he tells a sto­ry about King Richard and he was say­ing that they put it on in Boston because he’s like in this He was always torn, like he was doing plays in Boston in a small the­atre group at the same time as he was becom­ing big with The God­fa­ther and then the sub­se­quent movies after that. And he was like, not enjoy­ing the movie mak­ing, he was enjoy­ing the stage act­ing and get­ting into the parts and dis­cov­er­ing it and being on the tightrope every night per­form­ing it.

[01:27:45] Tony Kynas­ton: And they did, Richard III bombed and then the direc­tor said, hey, I think it’s because of the loca­tion. And then they took it to a church. And it got rave reviews, became a sell­out for ages, and they took it from the church to Broad­way, and it bombed again on Broad­way. And the head­line was, Paci­no sets Shake­speare back 50 years in the U.

[01:28:11] Tony Kynas­ton: S. And so, that’s what, that’s, yeah, set back. And that’s what sort of prompt­ed him to make, uh, this book. Find­ing Richard because, um, or look­ing for Richard, what­ev­er it’s called, because he want­ed to clear his name, um, about Shake­speare and, and Richard

[01:28:27] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, wow.

[01:28:28] Tony Kynas­ton: Ooh.

[01:28:29] Cameron Reil­ly: I saw Look­ing for Richard when it came out and always loved it. I mean, I thought it was ter­rif­ic doc­u­men­tary as well as the analy­sis and the per­for­mances and it had been one of my favourite plays since I first read it, like when I was a teenag­er. I was deep into Shake­speare when I was a teenag­er.

[01:28:46] Cameron Reil­ly: I always loved, you know, all of them real­ly, but Cae­sar and Richard III in par­tic­u­lar I real­ly loved. Um, yeah. So, yeah.

[01:28:57] Tony Kynas­ton: Favourite quote?

[01:28:59] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, well, I know the open­ing solil­o­quy, um, for Richard III off by heart, you know, Now is the win­ter of our dis­con­tent made glo­ri­ous sum­mer by this sun of York and all the clouds which load upon our house in the deep bosom of the ocean buried. Now are our brows bound with vic­to­ri­ous wreaths, our bruised arms hung up for mon­u­ments, our stern alarms changed to mer­ry meet­ings, our dread­ful march­es to the sea.

[01:29:23] Cameron Reil­ly: To delight­ful mea­sures, grim vis­age war hath smoothed his wrin­kled front, and now instead of mount­ing barbed steeds to fright the souls of fear­ful adver­saries, he capers nim­bly in a lady’s cham­ber to the las­civ­i­ous pleas­ings of a lute. But I that am not shaped for sport of tricks, nor made to court an anamorous look­ing glass, I that am cur­tailed of fair pro­por­tion, cheat­ed of fea­ture by dis­sem­bling nature, thrust into Etc

[01:29:50] Tony Kynas­ton: Well done.

[01:29:51] Cameron Reil­ly: I used to do that as my, um, when I was doing mic tests at Microsoft, before we’d go on stage and they’d want to do a mic test, I’d either quote that or do, um, The Raven by Poe, just to be obnox­ious and annoy­ing to every­one. I’d launch into a solil­o­quy. I, and the Mark Antony speech, Friends, Romans, Coun­try­men, I used to know that off by heart too.

[01:30:14] Cameron Reil­ly: Um, yeah, I just, I’ve always loved Richard III because I love, like, the struc­ture of it. Like how he said, like, in the plays, like, he says to the audi­ence in a, you know, breaks the fourth wall and says, I’m going to do some­thing real­ly evil, watch me do it.

[01:30:30] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

[01:30:31] Cameron Reil­ly: And then he goes and does it.

[01:30:32] Tony Kynas­ton: yeah,

[01:30:33] Cameron Reil­ly: It’s, it’s deli­cious, you know, you know.

[01:30:37] Cameron Reil­ly: Nev­er, um, Has ever a woman in this humour been wooed? Has ever a woman in this humour been won? Aye, I’ll win her, but I shall not keep her long. Like, it’s deli­cious­ly evil. Any­who, um, Jol­ly Good, Sun­ny Boy, alright, I’ll have to dig that out, uh, back out and fin­ish it at some point. Alright, well I’m gonna go back to cod­ing TK, uh, that’s my great love,

[01:31:09] Tony Kynas­ton: unbox­ing and I’m cur­rent­ly putting a desk togeth­er for Jen­ny, which has tak­en like the box says it’ll take 70 min­utes. I’ve tak­en about sev­en hours so far. And after.

[01:31:22] Cameron Reil­ly: pack one,

[01:31:22] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, I, I, it’s like giv­ing birth, like years ago I bought a flat pack thing and said I’d nev­er again. And now I just bought anoth­er one.

[01:31:31] Tony Kynas­ton: And I thought it was just gonna be, you know, put cast­ers on the bot­tom of it, oth­er­wise it comes ful­ly formed, but it was­n’t.

[01:31:36] Cameron Reil­ly: right,

[01:31:37] Tony Kynas­ton: a pain in the butt. And like, you know, after hours of work­ing on it, I went back to the start of the instruc­tions where it says, this is a two per­son job. And I’m like, real­ly?

[01:31:46] Tony Kynas­ton: Now you tell me?

[01:31:50] Cameron Reil­ly: you went back to the instruc­tions but it’s the instruc­tions fault that you did­n’t read that in the first place. Have the instruc­tions changed since you

[01:31:56] Tony Kynas­ton: At this, the very first thing in the instruc­tions it says, you can watch the video on Office­work­s’s page on how to put it togeth­er. No men­tion of a two man job in the video, but, yeah. After I’m like, hang on, there’s two guys hold­ing this togeth­er, and I’ve got, I’ve got my right foot and my left hand try­ing to ham­mer some­thing, it’s like, yeah, uh.

[01:32:22] Cameron Reil­ly: noth­ing I hate more in life than putting togeth­er flat pack

[01:32:26] Tony Kynas­ton: No, I hate it too.

[01:32:27] Cameron Reil­ly: the worst.

[01:32:28] Tony Kynas­ton: is. Any­way, Jen­ny’s learned a few new swear words in the

[01:32:32] Cameron Reil­ly: ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. Oh,

[01:32:37] Tony Kynas­ton: And I just rel­e­gat­ed it to be the last thing I do every day, you know, because I hate

[01:32:41] Cameron Reil­ly: swear words with Jen­ny. Oh, okay, that. Get sworn at by Jen­ny, I thought you meant.

[01:32:47] Tony Kynas­ton: Put this damn desk togeth­er. Okay.

[01:32:49] Cameron Reil­ly: you, good luck with that TK. Have a good week.

[01:32:52] Tony Kynas­ton: Thank you.

[01:32:52] Cameron Reil­ly: See ya every­body.