QAV 808 — The Value Investor’s Lament

QAV 808 Club Audio

[00:00:00] Cameron Reil­ly: Wel­come to QAV, TK, episode 8 0 8. 8 0 8. There’s a drum machine back in the eight­ies,

[00:00:11] Tony Kynas­ton: Either way.

[00:00:11] Cameron Reil­ly: 8 0 8.

[00:00:12] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:00:14] Cameron Reil­ly: Uh,

[00:00:15] Tony Kynas­ton: a great, uh, cov­er ver­sion of, uh, tomor­row. Nev­er knows those.

[00:00:19] Cameron Reil­ly: who’s they?

[00:00:20] Tony Kynas­ton: I think it was Bri­an Eno. It was a Bri­an Eno based band. 8 0 8 ERs Or 8 0 8. Yeah. 8 0 8 State, I think they were called.

[00:00:27] Cameron Reil­ly: Was he in Roxy Music at the time? Was this before or after

[00:00:30] Tony Kynas­ton: Could be. I don’t know. It was back in prob­a­bly late sev­en­ties, ear­ly eight­ies.

[00:00:34] Cameron Reil­ly: It was a drum machine. The, the orig­i­nal sort of all the ear­ly hip hop tracks, the Beast­ie Boys, et cetera, from the eight­ies was all an 8 0 8.

[00:00:47] Cameron Reil­ly: Any­way, peo­ple don’t care. Uh, it’s been a, it’s been a week TK in the mar­ket, midyear and in some cas­es full year results. But so many QAV stocks have tak­en an absolute sledg­ing in the last week. A cou­ple of good results as well. So cou­ple of good, uh, mar­ket respons­es to results, put it that way. But yeah, there’s been a lot of, lot of gnash­ing of teeth out there, which we will get into.

[00:01:13] Cameron Reil­ly: But apart. Before we get into that, how’s your week been? You’re back in the Schanck,

[00:01:17] Tony Kynas­ton: I am. Yeah. I had a love­ly week in Wag­ga,

[00:01:20] Cameron Reil­ly: the Schanck shack.

[00:01:21] Tony Kynas­ton: back at the Schanck. Had a love­ly week in Wag­ga, thanks to Rud­dy for host­ing. Won­der­ful host. Played lots of golf.

[00:01:27] Cameron Reil­ly: Did you hold hands?

[00:01:29] Tony Kynas­ton: lots of golf. No we did­n’t, no. We shared a golf cart at one stage. Went out to, um, went for a dri­ve. So Rod­dy’s broth­er-in-law came with us and he’s a very good golfer.

[00:01:38] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, plays off scratch or one or some­thing like that, even though he is about 67, uh, but still hits a great ball. So it was real­ly good play­ing with him a cou­ple of times. And any­way, he sug­gest­ed, we played with him on the Thurs­day and he sug­gest­ed that we should go out to Nan­dera on the Fri­day, which is about an hour from Wag­ga.

[00:01:57] Tony Kynas­ton: And that was great. Um, rod did­n’t like it ’cause it’s, you know, it’s a coun­try course. Uh, the one staff mem­ber there, the pro shop was shut. You put your mon­ey in an enve­lope and off you go. Um, which I thought, I think it’s fan­tas­tic. Um, so the course was­n’t in the great­est Nick. It used to be top 100 in Aus­tralia, so and so, the lay­out’s real­ly good, but you know.

[00:02:20] Tony Kynas­ton: It’s pre­ferred lies. You don’t, you, you hate to play comp there ’cause you’re hit­ting off dirt a lot, um, or puffs of grass and stuff. But oth­er­wise it was just bril­liant. So I real­ly enjoyed that, get­ting out in the coun­try and find­ing new tracks and, um, hav­ing fun.

[00:02:35] Cameron Reil­ly: You’ve already got a echid­nas and kan­ga­roos. How more coun­try can you get?

[00:02:38] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, true. But, um, yeah, just going out and doing that, uh, you know, leave your mon­ey in the, in an enve­lope. We, and so, uh, Rod­dy’s broth­er-in-law,

[00:02:48] Cameron Reil­ly: who has cash? I, I, I, I haven’t held cash in my hands since pre covid.

[00:02:53] Tony Kynas­ton: well yeah, you need to go to Wag­ga Wag­ga. I always take cash to Wag­ga Wag­ga The Chi­nese takes, gives you 10% off for cash.

[00:03:02] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, yeah. Okay.

[00:03:03] Tony Kynas­ton: We

[00:03:04] Cameron Reil­ly: don’t

[00:03:04] Tony Kynas­ton: up

[00:03:04] Cameron Reil­ly: remem­ber how to get cash. Where, where do you even get cash from?

[00:03:08] Tony Kynas­ton: We rocked up to the, the Chi­nese restau­rant on the, on the lake, the boat club it’s called on Sat­ur­day night for din­ner. And there was just hun­dreds of peo­ple there, so we, we did­n’t stay, um, ’cause it was too crowd­ed. But, uh, yeah, Cas­sius pop­u­lar in Wag­ga Wag­ga. Uh, any­way, I had this golf course in Thera, had some­thing I had­n’t seen before.

[00:03:27] Tony Kynas­ton: If you did­n’t have cash, they had an eft­pos, a tap and go square stuck on the side of the pro shop. And when it came to life, it, it gave you options. Like, you know, you’ve play nine holes or nine holes with a cart or 18, and you press the but­ton and then tap your cred­it card. So I did take eft­pos as well.

[00:03:48] Tony Kynas­ton: First time I’d seen that.

[00:03:50] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

[00:03:50] Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

[00:03:51] Cameron Reil­ly: Mod­ern day golf cours­es. I told you before though, about my start­up I had in 2000, right. Golf lounge.

[00:03:57] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

[00:03:58] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. That was my attempt to mod­ern­ize the golf­ing indus­try 25 years ago.

[00:04:04] Tony Kynas­ton: I mean, some indus­tries don’t want mod­ern­iza­tion.

[00:04:07] Cameron Reil­ly: That’s what I learned very quick­ly.

[00:04:09] Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm,

[00:04:12] Cameron Reil­ly: Did not care. Uh, alright, let’s get into mar­ket news. Tony, where do you wan­na start?

[00:04:19] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, I think my com­men­tary over­all is I, I think this is a sign of the top of the mar­ket and the mar­ket reached a high, and it’s, it’s off, I don’t know, it’s five to 7%. Uh, SD w’s down at least a cou­ple of per­cent, maybe three or 4% this month. So, uh, my, my kind of head­line sum­ma­ry is that. It’s shoot first ask ques­tions lat­er if, if there’s some kind of miss in the results, even if there’s a good rea­son for it.

[00:04:50] Tony Kynas­ton: The share price drops dou­ble dig­its straight away, but shares I’ve got, um, that I own who had great results, the share price, if it’s lucky or got one or 2%, maybe three. And some­times it goes down one or 2% ’cause the ana­lysts were expect­ing a beat. Um, so it’s a very unfor­giv­ing mar­ket. Uh, and it’s not unsur­pris­ing giv­en, not nec­es­sar­i­ly the QAV stocks, but in mar­ket­ing in gen­er­al has lots of, is over­val­ued as we’ve talked about in the past.

[00:05:19] Tony Kynas­ton: It’s at the high end of, its, its a pen­du­lum as it swings from, you know, a peeve or, well, a cur­rent peeve around 14 trail­ing peeve around 16, you know, up into the twen­ties and it’ll come back down again. Swing too far the oth­er way even­tu­al­ly. But, um, yeah, it’s, it’s, uh, there’s been a lot of, um. A lot of prob­lems and a lot of mis­reads too.

[00:05:39] Tony Kynas­ton: I think we’ll talk about one a bit lat­er. Um, Per­en­ti, which, uh, it’s a stock I owned, uh, I thought the results were, were accept­able. Um, stock went down 15, 20% and it’s back up, uh, as the mar­ket digest­ed what hap­pened, but we’ll talk about that in some detail lat­er. Um, but non QAV stocks, you, I’m kind of glad I’m not in some of these, um, you know, high­ly priced stocks.

[00:06:07] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, the WiseTech Glob­al comes to mind. I mean, I know it’s, it’s not down be because of its, um, nec­es­sar­i­ly being, uh, you know, bad results. Although I think the results weren’t great. But, um, any­way, it’s down a lot and, um, uh, I think it’s 29% hav­ing prob­lems with the founder. Four direc­tors have quit. So there’s a lot going on there.

[00:06:29] Tony Kynas­ton: Min­er­al resources, we spoke about once before, down 23% this month alone, um, down 70% from its highs as the, as the founder there, um, has issues. Uh, so there’s a real­ly unfor­giv­ing approach to the stock mar­ket at the moment, I think. Um, and we’re see­ing it play out in our stocks. Uh, I guess, you know, some of these stocks have been hit hard, super cheap.

[00:06:54] Tony Kynas­ton: Again, I don’t think it’s nec­es­sar­i­ly, um, war­rant­ed. But any­way, um, it had a miss and it was ham­mered. Um, there’s still. Cash pro­duc­ing machines, and gen­er­al­ly what you find is their falls aren’t as big as the, the high PE stocks when they crash, like the ones I just spoke about. So, um, any­way, that’s my over­all sum­ma­ry.

[00:07:13] Tony Kynas­ton: I, I think peo­ple are, uh, becom­ing less for­giv­ing. They’re look­ing for signs of trou­ble and they’re think­ing the mar­ket is, uh, over­priced and maybe even just some prof­it tak­ing going on because of that in the stock mar­ket as a whole.

[00:07:28] Cameron Reil­ly: The Dow Jones is down as well. Uh, I dun­no what the US mar­ket’s wor­ried about. I mean, every­thing’s going so well over there right now. It’s like smooth sail­ing. Uh, can’t under­stand why they would be ner­vous.

[00:07:40] Tony Kynas­ton: And a high­ly pre­dictable econ­o­my and envi­ron­ment over there.

[00:07:44] Cameron Reil­ly: High­ly pre­dictable. Yeah, like, noth­ing, noth­ing to be ner­vous about

[00:07:48] Tony Kynas­ton: Safe pair of hands guid­ing that one.

[00:07:52] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, a safe pair of hands, uh, when they’re not wav­ing to the audi­ence, uh, you know, it’s, uh, like they’re, that’s, uh, the Musk salute as I now call it.

[00:08:02] Tony Kynas­ton: I was gonna talk about this in after hours, but since you brought it up, that’s sup­posed to be a Roman sort

[00:08:07] Cameron Reil­ly: It was orig­i­nal­ly a Roman salute. That’s where the Nazis got it from. Yeah.

[00:08:10] Tony Kynas­ton: it. Well, he, he post­ed that, uh, he’s call­ing him­self the mod­ern day Sul­la, so, uh, yeah, yeah,

[00:08:17] Cameron Reil­ly: pull a Sul­la.

[00:08:18] Tony Kynas­ton: yeah. Get shit done.

[00:08:20] Cameron Reil­ly: wow. You know what Sul­la did

[00:08:24] Tony Kynas­ton: I have lis­tened to your pod­cast. Yep. It’s not all

[00:08:26] Cameron Reil­ly: peo­ple who haven’t Sul­la cut off the heads of his ene­mies, so, uh, in Rome,

[00:08:33] Tony Kynas­ton: They’re hap­pen­ing now.

[00:08:34] Cameron Reil­ly: ene­mies Yeah.

[00:08:35] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:08:36] Cameron Reil­ly: Blood in the streets dur­ing Surahs, but as I always have to remind peo­ple, SOAH was dic­ta­tor and then he, uh, gave it up, gave up the dic­ta­tor­ship, and went and lived with his, uh, went into retire­ment with his wife and his male lover.

[00:08:52] Cameron Reil­ly: Maybe that’s what Musk is hint­ing at. Maybe he’s gonna come out that he’s got a male lover, and then of course, w

[00:08:59] Tony Kynas­ton: cer­tain­ly giv­en the female side a go. What’s, what’s he got 27 kids or some­thing,

[00:09:03] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. Then when Cae­sar became dic­ta­tor, he said, uh, Sul­la. Sul­la was an ama­teur. He did­n’t know what he was doing.

[00:09:12] Tony Kynas­ton: got out the blue­print and said, I can build a big­ger one.

[00:09:15] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. Any­way, yes. So what else have you got? What oth­er sto­ries I.

[00:09:20] Tony Kynas­ton: Well cou­ple, I wan­na go through a few results. Um, I’m gonna start with the ones which were beats. Uh, and, and some of these have been on the, aren’t on the buy list now, but have been on the buy list. So I’ll talk about them because peo­ple are prob­a­bly hold­ing them. First one is judo. Uh, the judo CEO pro­claims a safe land­ing.

[00:09:39] Tony Kynas­ton: This is, uh, uh, from the AFR and it hap­pened after the inter­est rate cut last week. Uh, judo Bank says the cut and the cash rate will help the busi­ness bank com­pete with major lenders that may pro­tect mar­gins by hold­ing back some reduc­tion for small busi­ness bor­row­ers. In con­trast to Bendi­go and Ade­laide Bank, which report­ed a squeeze in its increase mar­gins on Mon­day last week and saw its shares crunch.

[00:10:01] Tony Kynas­ton: So Judo lift­ed its mar­gin guid­ance in half year results that beat expec­ta­tions. The stock respond­ed pos­i­tive­ly, which shares up 11% dur­ing the morn­ing ses­sion to $2 14. Uh, goes on to say that their mar­gins are good. So this is a. Uh, judo is a, a busi­ness lender. Um, bank does hold a bank­ing license, so it does­n’t play in the mort­gage mar­ket space.

[00:10:25] Tony Kynas­ton: Their mar­gins, um, were in the stat­ed range of 2.9% to 3%. Uh, and the arti­cle points out that’s much high­er than the mar­gin that Bendigo’s Bank, which is 1.88%, and West­pac, which report­ed the con­trac­tion of its core inter­est mar­gin to 1.81%. On Mon­day. The pric­ing of small busi­ness loans is more bestow bespoke, and judo can lend to its cus­tomers at a wider spread than banks can for mort­gages.

[00:10:53] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, the CEOA guy called Bay­less said, I think the safe land­ing has hap­pened. We have seen a tran­si­tion from a con­sumer led econ­o­my based on house­hold lever­age to a busi­ness led econ­o­my. Now, busi­ness­es are in invest­ment mode and the econ­o­my in growth phase. That’s a big call I thought from him. Um, but I guess he’s see­ing it.

[00:11:13] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh. Judo goes on to say they report­ed 2.3 bil­lion in new loans, orig­i­nat­ed over the half a record lev­el, dri­ven by growth in agribusi­ness, um, main­tain­ing a growth rate above the aver­age of the sys­tem as it expands into the regions. Uh, bail list goes on to say that he thinks the rate tip will be help­ful.

[00:11:34] Tony Kynas­ton: He explained this was due to major banks hold­ing sig­nif­i­cant fund­ing and trans­ac­tion accounts, which pay very lit­tle inter­est. This means they can­not be fur­ther reduced as the cash rate falls cre­at­ing pres­sure on major banks to recoup a mar­gin squeeze due though, which runs a tra­di­tion­al rela­tion­ship bank­ing mod­el, has 159 bankers and will hire a fur­ther 20 in the next six months.

[00:11:56] Tony Kynas­ton: Each runs an aver­age of 28 cus­tomers com­pared with the indus­try aver­age of more than a hun­dred. The bank says this helps mon­i­tor cred­it qual­i­ty, which was sta­ble over the half with 2.3% of the book, 90 days past you or impaired. So, uh, yeah, good result. Uh, old fash­ioned busi­ness bank. Rely­ing on cus­tomer rela­tion­ships and, um, hit a few goals.

[00:12:17] Tony Kynas­ton: This half.

[00:12:19] Cameron Reil­ly: You did a pull pork on them last year? I think

[00:12:22] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, I did. Yeah. So they were on the buy list at that time?

[00:12:27] Cameron Reil­ly: I bought them in towards the end of Sep­tem­ber last year. Up sort of 20% since then. Um, $2 and four, though. Not You said $2 14 before. I’ve got ’em at $2 four.

[00:12:41] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Well, they must have come back. That was the price on the morn­ing of the announce­ments, uh, of the results.

[00:12:46] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. But they’re doing, doing quite nice in one of our port­fo­lios.

[00:12:50] Tony Kynas­ton: Good. So the next one I wan­na talk about is QBE. And, and I hold QBE in my own port­fo­lio. Uh, and this again was from ear­ly last week, Feb­ru­ary 21st. Uh, and, uh. Part of the arti­cle was in response to Peter Dut­ton’s call to break up some insur­ance com­pa­nies if they did­n’t low­er their prices. And so, uh, this is a, a quote from the CEO of QBE, a guy called Hor­ton and it goes, uh, after QBE report­ed a strong, stronger annu­al prof­it on Fri­day.

[00:13:21] Tony Kynas­ton: This is a Fri­day. Pre­vi­ous Hor­ton said reduc­ing cost for pover­ty hold­ers means low­er­ing risk. He did say that, uh, scale and diver­si­fi­ca­tion was impor­tant for insur­ers. QBE only receives 3% of its total pre­mi­ums from the con­sumer mar­ket in Aus­tralia where it has not made mon­ey. For the last three years.

[00:13:41] Tony Kynas­ton: Even though prices have gone up, it does not mean it deliv­ers a return on cap­i­tal. Aus­tralian con­sumer insur­ance has been loss mak­ing in a num­ber of years, but we can afford it in total because of the rest of the busi­ness. He said Q b’s. Glob­al diver­si­fi­ca­tion and a three year project to improve under­writ­ing stan­dards and exit.

[00:14:01] Tony Kynas­ton: More risky busi­ness­es helped dri­ve return on equi­ty to its high­est lev­el in a decade. QBE earns more from com­mer­cial spe­cial­ty rein­sur­ance and lenders mort­gage insur­ances than it does from con­sumer lines. It has extend­ed op exten­sive oper­a­tions in the US where it avoid­ed the worst of the US hur­ri­cane sea­son last year.

[00:14:21] Tony Kynas­ton: It also said expo­sure from the LA wild­fires in Jan­u­ary was around $200 mil­lion. Statu­to­ry net prof­it, uh, of us. $1.78 bil­lion for the full year was up 31%. It lift­ed its full year div­i­dend to 87 cents per share up from 62 in 2023, rep­re­sent­ing half of its net prof­it. Gross writ­ten prop pre­mi­ums were up 3% to 200 to 224 US bil­lion, and it expects 2025 pre pre­mi­um growth in the mid sin­gle dig­its.

[00:14:53] Tony Kynas­ton: It shares were up 5.2% on the day to 2112. So, um, well-run insur­ance busi­ness, 97% of its, uh, prof­it from over­seas or income from over­seas. And I would expect com­pa­nies like QB will do well because they’re get­ting a, a big cur­ren­cy uplift, uh, giv­en the Aus­tralian dol­lars, uh, towards its slow­est, uh, lev­els, uh, for quite a while.

[00:15:20] Cameron Reil­ly: Did­n’t real­ly explain in that why they’re not mak­ing mon­ey out of con­sumer insur­ance though in Aus­tralia. Um,

[00:15:27] Tony Kynas­ton: Did­n’t,

[00:15:27] Cameron Reil­ly: would that be? So they said they haven’t for a num­ber of years. It’s been a loss mak­ing for a num­ber of years.

[00:15:33] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, I would spec­u­late. Um, I would think com­pet­i­tive mar­ket, ’cause there’s lots of insur­ers in Aus­tralia and a ris­ing, ris­ing num­ber of, um, events, floods, fires, um, uh, what­ev­er else in the last, uh, three years, um, which is, which may not have been, they may not have pro­vid­ed enough for it, but they cer­tain­ly can’t raise their pre­mi­ums enough to cov­er it as there is a com­pet­i­tive envi­ron­ment.

[00:16:02] Tony Kynas­ton: And there’s also the polit­i­cal pres­sure, uh, call­ing for low­er­ing of prices by insur­ance in gen­er­al.

[00:16:08] Cameron Reil­ly: Polit­i­cal pres­sure from the oppo­si­tion.

[00:16:13] Tony Kynas­ton: Yes. Still a threat.

[00:16:15] Cameron Reil­ly: The oppo­si­tion that’s prob­a­bly been deny­ing cli­mate change for the last, uh, 25 years. And now it’s cost­ing insur­ance com­pa­nies mon­ey and they’re telling ’em to drop their pre­mi­ums ’cause it’s fake news. You know, cli­mate change does­n’t exist so the insur­ance com­pa­nies don’t need to wor­ry about it.

[00:16:32] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. And nuclear will solve it too.

[00:16:34] Cameron Reil­ly: Yes, I’m actu­al­ly pronu­clear, but the time to be Pronu­clear was 40 years ago. It’s a bit late to be pronu­clear now. Uh, alright, well I don’t hold, uh, QBEI just checked. How have they done for you?

[00:16:52] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, they’re good. Um, they, they were doing bet­ter. They have come off a lit­tle bit recent­ly, but, uh, yeah, I’m, I’m guess­ing they’re up sort of 25% since I bought them. Some­thing like that. Yeah.

[00:17:03] Cameron Reil­ly: Good FMG, our old friends,

[00:17:08] Tony Kynas­ton: Dis­ap­point­ments. ’cause it came onto the, onto, uh, the. Prob­a­bly a day or two before its results came out and the results came out and the share price was ham­mered and it became a sell again. So,

[00:17:20] Cameron Reil­ly: and you said, yeah, I think it’s time to take the red flag off. I

[00:17:23] Tony Kynas­ton: no, I did,

[00:17:24] Cameron Reil­ly: paid the price.

[00:17:25] Tony Kynas­ton: I did. So maybe the red flag rule should be wait for the next results to see, let the red flag flush its way through the sys­tem. Yeah,

[00:17:32] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

[00:17:33] Tony Kynas­ton: but you’re right. I did say last week, let’s use sen­ti­ment. Um,

[00:17:37] Cameron Reil­ly: sen­ti­ment That’s right. Yeah. How’s the sen­ti­ment?

[00:17:40] Tony Kynas­ton: cross that, cross that out. Let’s wait for a, a set of num­bers. Uh, but yeah, they were a ter­ri­ble set of num­bers.

[00:17:48] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, I

[00:17:50] Cameron Reil­ly: Isn’t that

[00:17:50] Tony Kynas­ton: longer term set­tle­ment was, um, longer, longer term sen­ti­ment was accu­rate.

[00:17:55] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, like it’s, uh, I’m look­ing at their like one year chart. Um, has not been good. Gone from 28 bucks down to 18 today, over 12 months. Um, you know, we, we’ve talked a lot about the sort of polit­i­cal cor­po­rate goings on at FMG over the last year. Lots of, uh, direc­tors leav­ing, uh, senior man­age­ment leav­ing, and uh, then the results come out and they’re ter­ri­ble.

[00:18:25] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. And not just the exits of the man­age­ment, I think was the most telling thing. But I think for the SKUs code, it’s, it’s got­ta clean up its act with its, uh, future Indus­tries divi­sion. And, uh, they’ve come out and I. Said that they’re going to, uh, reduce their cap­i­tal expen­di­ture by a fifth, um, uh, uh, in that ener­gy divi­sion.

[00:18:47] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, and, uh, is going to pause a bil­lion dol­lars of approved hydro­gen projects, large­ly as a result of Don­ald Trump tak­ing over the White House and, um, its atti­tude towards Queen Ener­gy. So, you know, for the skew should real­ly, um, spin off its future indus­tries divi­sion and make it a sep­a­rate com­pa­ny. And then any­body who wants to play in that space, which is still unprof­itable, can do that rather than hav­ing it, um, cross fund­ed by the iron ore busi­ness.

[00:19:18] Tony Kynas­ton: But any­way, um, it, it, the results weren’t good. Uh, the net prof­it was less than half that, that report­ed a year ago, and 12% low­er than ana­lysts were expect­ing. Um, rev­enue was down by one fifth and the div­i­dend, um, of 50 cents was less than half. The pay­ment of the year before. So, um, yeah. Ter­ri­ble result all round real­ly.

[00:19:44] Cameron Reil­ly: Mm. But I think Mr. Forests wants to fund the future indus­try’s busi­ness with his exist­ing busi­ness. Isn’t that his whole plan? He sees he wants to be shap­ing the future and he is gonna use the past to shape it. I mean, it’s,

[00:20:00] Tony Kynas­ton: That’s his plan.

[00:20:01] Cameron Reil­ly: it’s, that’s his, it’s his busi­ness, give or take, depend­ing on how the share­hold­ers feel about that.

[00:20:05] Cameron Reil­ly: But yeah. Well, look, I admire that. I admire his attempt to move into future ener­gy. Uh. Space and using iron ore rev­enues, it’s to, to sort of finance that as a start­up. Whether or not he can pull it off, I guess, remains to be seen. If he pulls it off, he’ll, he’ll be a super­star

[00:20:34] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, exact­ly. And, and I think, um, he’s always been entre­pre­neur­ial, so, you know, if he thinks this is the oppor­tu­ni­ty for the future, then you know, I think it’s, it’s, you’ve got­ta look at back­ing him any­way. Um. But, you know, star­tups are very volatile and they don’t make mon­ey for a long time. So it could be anoth­er busi­ness as big as Fortes­cue even­tu­al­ly.

[00:20:53] Tony Kynas­ton: I think the oth­er pos­i­tive thing, um, which I think he’s been try­ing to do, is to invest in hydro­gen so that they can, uh, some­how mit­i­gate the, the cli­mate change effects of being an iron ore min­er and sup­ply­ing steel mills. If steel mills can start using hydro­gen and pro­duce, uh, less emis­sions or, or even clean­er emis­sions, um, then that’s a real win.

[00:21:14] Tony Kynas­ton: So I applaud him for that, but I per­son­al­ly would pre­fer to see it done in a sep­a­rate vehi­cle. And, you know, if he needs to take loans from the iron ore group or if he needs to use his own div­i­dends to, to fund it, then you know, go for it. And peo­ple can decide whether they want to invest in that or not.

[00:21:33] Cameron Reil­ly: All right. What about our friends? It’s super cheap.

[00:21:38] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Um. So the results came out. Uh, the super cheap auto or super retail group is the com­pa­ny, but, uh, one of the biggest sec­tions of it is super cheap auto and that, uh, busi­ness under­per­formed. So they report­ed that, uh, they were bat­tling a down­turn in the auto­mo­tive cat­e­go­ry, forc­ing it into deep dis­counts and pun­ish­ing the prof­its of its par­ents.

[00:22:05] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, ASX list­ed super retail group while group sales rose 4% to 2.1 bil­lion over the first half and same source store sales were at 1.8%. Net prof­it was 9% low­er, uh, and below mar­ket fore­cast. The stock tum­bled near­ly 14% on the day. Uh, they also, uh, claim that earn­ings, uh, fell at their hik­ing retail mac pack where sales grew just 1.7% in Octo­ber.

[00:22:33] Tony Kynas­ton: The com­pa­ny, um. Uh, warned that the 2025 finan­cial year was start­ing with soft­er sales and more pro­mo­tion­al activ­i­ty. Uh, so that came true. Uh, but at Rebel, the, um, the sports­wear sta­ble mate sales grew 4.4% to 706 mil­lion and a half, cul­mi­nat­ing in record Christ­mas trade footwear and licensed NRL Appar­el deliv­ered.

[00:22:56] Tony Kynas­ton: Improved turnover close­ly matched by fit­ness tech­nol­o­gy. But earn­ings at Rebel were erod­ed by high­er rates of theft and the cost of estab­lish­ing its loy­al­ty pro­gram. So did you buy any NRL mer­chan­dis­es at Rebel for Christ­mas? Dan,

[00:23:12] Cameron Reil­ly: Uh, sur­pris­ing­ly, uh, Tony? No, I did not. I did steal a

[00:23:16] Tony Kynas­ton: get out. Get out there.

[00:23:17] Cameron Reil­ly: though dur­ing Christ­mas. Did­n’t buy it. I just stole it. I mean, appar­ent­ly that’s the way to do it. Um, yeah, rebel. Inter­est­ing that, uh, sales were up for footwear and fit­ness tech. I won­der what’s dri­ving that.

[00:23:35] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, I, I, again, I’d be spec­u­lat­ing. Um, I sus­pect that super cheap is down. These peo­ple are tak­ing longer between ser­vices on their vehi­cles as a cost of liv­ing mea­sure. Uh, but if you, right, if like, if you send, choose, run out of way, you got­ta go and buy them. So maybe sneak­ers and, and gym clothes are more of an essen­tial pur­chase than, uh, ser­vic­ing your

[00:23:57] Cameron Reil­ly: We should have Chair­man Mabb on. He’s the footwear expert, isn’t he?

[00:24:02] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, it is.

[00:24:04] Cameron Reil­ly: Hmm.

[00:24:05] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, well, anoth­er footwear com­pa­ny, which did poor­ly was, uh, accent, accent one, which has, um, also been on the, the buy list. Uh, the ASX was the retail­er behind shoe chains, height, DC and platy­pus. And brand Hoka, I guess that’s how you pro­nounce it, has post­ed an 11 point cent. Gain in the first half, net prof­it to 47 mil­lion, but slash the inter­im div­i­dend to pre­serve cash in a tough trad­ing envi­ron­ment.

[00:24:32] Tony Kynas­ton: Group sales climbed 4.2% to 845 mil­lion in the six month peri­od to Decem­ber 29. Held by same store sales growth of 2.9% earn­ings before inter­est and tax rose, 11.5% to 80 mil­lion, an inter­im div­i­dend of 5.50 cents per share. 40. Frank will be paid on March 20, but it’s low­er than a year ago at 8.50 cents.

[00:24:55] Tony Kynas­ton: And it was also below mar­ket expec­ta­tions at 6.40 cents. Accent open. 42 new stores tak­ing the total sites to 903 stores, which beat expec­ta­tions so. Shares, uh, shares went down, um, even though real­ly good prof­it result, um, good expan­sion with 42 new stores being opened, uh, but uh, shares down on the basis of a div­i­dend cut, which is always some­thing a busi­ness­es loathed to do.

[00:25:26] Tony Kynas­ton: And, and, and indi­cat­ed that they’re, um, quite, quite, uh, con­ser­v­a­tive in their fore­cast going for­ward.

[00:25:34] Cameron Reil­ly: I don’t hold accent in any of my port­fo­lios, but I should men­tion I do hold a super retail group in, uh, my own super port­fo­lio plus some of the light port­fo­lios, and it has­n’t been a great per­former. I mean, I, in, uh, one of the light port­fo­lios, I’ve held it since August 22. And it’s up 36%, but uh, in some of the oth­ers, includ­ing the dum­my port­fo­lio in my super, I bought it around Octo­ber, end of Octo­ber, ear­ly Novem­ber, 2023, and it’s sort of up some­where between five and 10%, depend­ing on which date I bought it at.

[00:26:08] Cameron Reil­ly: Must have been hav­ing a bit of a price spurt at the time. But yeah, it has­n’t had a good sort of 18 months since then.

[00:26:17] Tony Kynas­ton: No. Well, yeah, I’m in the same boat. I should have said when I start­ed talk­ing about it, I, I own it as well. Um, and, uh, it’s, uh, I, I for­get now how much it’s up for me over time. 10 per­cent-ish sort of num­ber. Um, but it has been com­ing down over late. The, the oth­er com­ment I want­ed to make about a lot of these stocks is, um, are they sur­pris­ing the mar­ket?

[00:26:39] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, if, if, if the mar­ket was out there say­ing the div­i­dend was, they thought was gonna be one num­ber, and it comes in less than that, the, the com­pa­ny by law is meant to be mak­ing announce­ments as soon as they know that it’s, it’s like­ly to be cut and the expec­ta­tion won’t be met. So what’s a, what’s a, the ASX and ASIC doing, uh, about all this?

[00:27:01] Tony Kynas­ton: I mean, any of these com­pa­nies we’re talk­ing about who’ve had miss­es should be grilled by both those, um, reg­u­la­tors on, on their cor­po­rate dis­clo­sure. They’re either ASIC and ASX are either asleep or they’re incom­pe­tent, frankly, when it comes to things like this.

[00:27:15] Cameron Reil­ly: We’ve talked about this over and over again. We get sur­prised all the time,

[00:27:20] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:27:21] Cameron Reil­ly: and as far as I’m aware, noth­ing hap­pens. There’s nev­er any, please explain, uh, that I see come through in the announce­ments. It’s just, hmm, noth­ing, noth­ing to see. Move right along.

[00:27:32] Tony Kynas­ton: Which is wrong now, I don’t know what the sit­u­a­tion was at Super retail group, for exam­ple. I’m not sin­gling them out. They may well have had a board meet­ing right before they announced their results and decid­ed on the, the div­i­dend cut at that stage. And so that was the first chance to announce it to the mar­ket.

[00:27:48] Tony Kynas­ton: But they did­n’t just pull that num­ber out of, out of thin air. They would’ve been toss­ing it around inter­nal­ly for quite a while before that.

[00:27:56] Cameron Reil­ly: But it’s not even just about the div­i­dend though. It’s right with all of them com­ing out and say­ing that their over­all results dis­ap­point, you know, were, were not what the mar­ket was expect­ing or not, what they pre­dict­ed in their fore­cast­ing six months ago or a year ago should have come out dur­ing con­fes­sion sea­son.

[00:28:14] Cameron Reil­ly: So

[00:28:14] Tony Kynas­ton: Sure. Yeah, absolute­ly.

[00:28:16] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, it’s, and it’s obvi­ous­ly not because the mar­ket’s tank­ing them by 10, 15, 20% when the news comes out. So what’s going on? Why aren’t they get­ting hauled over the coals for not giv­ing the mar­ket more warn­ing?

[00:28:30] Tony Kynas­ton: Yes. Well, to be fair and supercheap’s, uh, defense, they did come out, um, with a con­fes­sion. I’m just try­ing to look it up now as part of that arti­cle in Octo­ber. So going back to Octo­ber, uh, warned the 2025 finan­cial year were start­ing with soft­er sales and more pro­mo­tion activ­i­ty. So, um, that was a long time before the results came out.

[00:28:52] Tony Kynas­ton: Almost six months, and they haven’t updat­ed as far as I know now with fur­ther announce­ments since then, which they, which they would know about

[00:29:00] Cameron Reil­ly: If only we had like a Aus­tralian Share­hold­ers Asso­ci­a­tion or some­thing like that that could take up these issues with ASIC on behalf of share­hold­ers across the coun­try.

[00:29:12] Tony Kynas­ton: now. We should get mad back on the show then. Hold­ing to account.

[00:29:16] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. What are you doing? Haul him over the coals if they’re not gonna haul them over the coals. What about chal­lenger?

[00:29:26] Tony Kynas­ton: Yes. Chal­lenger. Anoth­er one that’s been on the buy list for, uh, for a while. Uh, they were, um, they were a hit in a cou­ple of ways. So their, uh, retire­ment prod­uct provider and fund man­ag­er, um, they have been under a cloud accord­ing to this arti­cle, with first half prof­it and life sales com­ing in below expec­ta­tions again.

[00:29:50] Tony Kynas­ton: No warn­ing of that. Just, just kin­da announce it with the results. Shares fell 9% on results stay cul­mi­nat­ing in a 20% decline. Over the past year. The 3.8 bil­lion mar­ket cap com­pa­ny last closed at 5 47 float­ing with Lowe’s last­ing in June, 2021. Insti­tu­tion­al investors have also avoid­ed the stock like the plague.

[00:30:12] Tony Kynas­ton: After major share­hold­er, wall Street Asset Man­ag­er, Apol­lo Man­age­ment reduced its stake in the annu­ities and fund man­age­ment busi­ness to 9.9% from 20.12% in Sep­tem­ber. Nat­u­ral­ly, investors are con­cerned about anoth­er pos­si­ble liq­uid­i­ty event, but bot­tom up ana­lysts are scratch­ing their heads, argu­ing the busi­ness is per­form­ing well and trad­ing on a Ford PE of just nine times.

[00:30:37] Tony Kynas­ton: And this is the dilem­ma for me with a lot of these com­pa­nies, cam, um, okay, the results, some of these results have been miss­es. A lot of ’em have being miss­es. Um, but the com­pa­nies are still throw­ing off lots of cash and, you know, how, how cheap­er do they have to get before peo­ple decide that okay, it’s, it’s, its future.

[00:31:00] Tony Kynas­ton: May not be, its future may be a bit rock­i­er, but, um, you know, there’s still, there’s still cash gen­er­at­ing machines. They’re still, uh, oper­at­ing. They’ve been oper­at­ing for a long time. They still do good jobs. I would­n’t be sur­prised if some of these com­pa­nies have their share prices turned round, um, as ana­lysts come to grips with the fun­da­men­tals of what they’ve been report­ing.

[00:31:23] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, well, you know, we know the mar­ket does­n’t invest like we invest. Not every­one in the mar­ket does. Look­ing at the fun­da­men­tals, CGS was­n’t on our buy list though this week,

[00:31:35] Tony Kynas­ton: Right.

[00:31:36] Cameron Reil­ly: I dun­no what’s where they fell off. I.

[00:31:38] Tony Kynas­ton: Imag­ine the results we’ve got, the new results in maybe, and they haven’t, um, mea­sured up per­haps.

[00:31:44] Cameron Reil­ly: Right.

[00:31:44] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm.

[00:31:46] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. Uh, let’s talk about Par­en­ti.

[00:31:51] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Well, um, I was gonna do a pulled pork on Per­en­ti, the request of one of our lis­ten­ers. So should I jump to that now rather than, um, dis­cuss the results? ’cause it’ll be in the pulled pork.

[00:32:01] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, let’s do it lat­er. Then. Let’s keep going through news. Um, Berk­shire Hath­away.

[00:32:07] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. So a bit of a bright spot in all the, uh, doom and gloom over the week­end. The annu­al leather dropped.

[00:32:14] Tony Kynas­ton: Um. And I almost kind of missed it in, in all the alerts and things I was look­ing at and results announce­ments I was read­ing. Um, but yeah, such a, such a breath of fresh air, uh, to be, to be read­ing, uh, uh, a mar­ket dis­clo­sure, um, in the style of War­ren Buf­fet, uh, and, um, some of the high­lights. Uh, yeah, he always lists his mis­takes right up front and, uh, he says that again in this result.

[00:32:41] Tony Kynas­ton: And, um, he used a great, a great line, I thought. He called out most oth­er com­pa­nies for not men­tion­ing their mis­takes in their annu­al reports and said that, uh, uh, else­where, uh, annu­al reports have gen­er­al­ly been hap­py talk­ing pic­tures, which I thought was a good, a good sum­ma­ry if any­one’s ever gone and looked at an ASX list­ed com­pa­ny’s annu­al report. Yeah. Um, he called out the fact that, uh, I think it was actu­al­ly a record inve, uh, prof­it of Berk­shire Hath­away, and I noticed this morn­ing the stock was up 4% overnight, so, um. The result was received well by the mar­ket. Uh, War­ren called out the fact that, uh, Berk­shire was aid­ed by a pre­dictably or pre­dictable large gain in invest­ment income.

[00:33:24] Tony Kynas­ton: As trea­sury bill yields improved and we sub­stan­tial­ly increased our hold­ings of these high­ly liq­uid short term secu­ri­ties. So, you know, he’s, the, the, the cash pile or cash equiv­a­lent pile gets big­ger and, um, I think it’s a nat­ur­al hedge against the com­ing crash. And I think that’s what he thinks too. And it kind of makes sense as, um, as bonds get sold off and the yield gets big­ger, that, um.

[00:33:50] Tony Kynas­ton: The more he invests in that, the, um, bet­ter the income’s gonna be. But, um, when the share mar­ket does take a stum­ble, bonds will come back and, um, he’ll make a cap­i­tal gain in as well. So I think that’s inter­est­ing. He, he often has these kind of hid­den sig­nals in what he says, and I think that’s one of them.

[00:34:07] Tony Kynas­ton: I think he’s see­ing the mar­ket as fair­ly top­py in the us. Inter­est­ing, um, tit­bit I had­n’t noticed before that Todd Coons is now run­ning Geico, one of their big insur­ance, uh, divi­sions. So Todd Coons was tak­en on as a, uh, a bud­ding CIO and a poten­tial replace­ment, uh, at least on the invest­ment side for War­ren.

[00:34:28] Tony Kynas­ton: He’s popped up in insur­ance, so I’m not sure what to read in that. Um. War­ren, I don’t think would entrust Geico to some­one he did­n’t have a lot of faith in. So it’s prob­a­bly a tick for Todd. But, um, you know, War­ren’s smart enough to strength­en the bench, I think oper­a­tional­ly as well as invest­ment wise, uh, for his, um, suc­ces­sion.

[00:34:47] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, one of the mis­takes he called out was, um, and I quote, 60 years ago, present man­age­ment took con­trol of Berk­shire. That mover was a mis­take, my mis­take, and one that plagued this for two decades. Char­lie, I should empha­size spite of my obvi­ous area. Imme­di­ate­ly though the price I paid for Berk­shire looked cheap, its busi­ness.

[00:35:05] Tony Kynas­ton: A large north­ern tex­tile oper­a­tion was head­ed for extinc­tion. The US Trea­sury of all places had already received silent warn­ings of Berk­shire’s Des­tiny. In 1965, the com­pa­ny did not pay a dime of income tax, an embar­rass­ment that had gen­er­al­ly pre­vailed at the com­pa­ny for a decade. That sort of eco­nom­ic behav­iour may be under­stand­able for glam­orous star­tups, but it’s a blink­ing yel­low light when it hap­pens at a ven­er­a­ble pil­lar of Amer­i­can indus­try.

[00:35:31] Tony Kynas­ton: Berk­shire was head­ed for the ash­can. Fast for­ward 60 years, and imag­ine the sur­prise at the Trea­sury when that same com­pa­ny still oper­at­ing under the same name of Berk­shire Hath­away paid far more in cor­po­rate income tax than the US gov­ern­ment had ever received from any com­pa­ny, even the Amer­i­can tech titles that com­mand­ed mar­ket val­u­a­tions in the tril­lions.

[00:35:52] Tony Kynas­ton: To be pre­cise, Berk­shire last year made four pay­ments to the IRS that totalled 26.8 bil­lion. That’s about 5% of what all of cor­po­rate Amer­i­ca paid. And in addi­tion, we paid siz­able amounts for income tax­es to for­eign gov­ern­ments and to 44 states. So good old war on cor­po­rate gov­er­nance, guardian of the, the US uh, econ­o­my.

[00:36:14] Cameron Reil­ly: Always hap­py to pay his tax­es.

[00:36:16] Tony Kynas­ton: is, yeah, I think it’s a great thing. Uh, the inter­est­ing thing was that he also called out that our own­er­ship and mar­ketable equi­ties moved down­ward last year from 354 bil­lion to 272 bil­lion. So, um, again, cou­pled, cou­pled with the, uh, increase in bond hold­ings. So that’s anoth­er sign that he’s los­ing inter­est in the US stock mar­ket.

[00:36:42] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. Hmm,

[00:36:44] Tony Kynas­ton: Lot of talk about his invest­ment in Japan, which has dou­bled in the last five years since he start­ed doing it by invest­ing in five of the largest, largest com­pa­nies in Japan. He writes about them and talks about them as being Japan­ese equiv­a­lents of Berk­shire Hath­away and look­ing for­ward to a long and hap­py rela­tion­ship with them.

[00:37:01] Cameron Reil­ly: hmm.

[00:37:02] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, so that was a, that was a high­light, I think, from the week­end.

[00:37:06] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, I missed that com­plete­ly until I saw it in your notes.

[00:37:09] Tony Kynas­ton: ooh.

[00:37:11] Cameron Reil­ly: Uh, well, do you wan­na talk about Richard’s post?

[00:37:16] Tony Kynas­ton: I did, yeah, I also saw this, uh, this is a post, um, and a snip­pet from an Alan Kohler arti­cle, um, on the invest­ment web­site. And it talks about the dif­fer­ence between growth stocks and val­ue stocks over the last, uh, well, it goes right back for a num­ber of years back to 1985, uh, and the quote reads the head of research and port­fo­lio man­age­ment.

[00:37:37] Tony Kynas­ton: Nathan Bell at invest­ment talked about how tough it’s been for val­ue investors like him over the past few years, and still is because val­ue is being ignored for growth. It’s a com­mon tale of woe, and I’d heard it from Nathan before Val­ue invest­ing was the place to be in the pan­dem­ic, but for the past few years, it has been as mis­er­able as it was in the late 1990s.

[00:37:59] Tony Kynas­ton: Growth stocks, ones that define nor­mal val­u­a­tion met­rics and just keep get­ting more expen­sive. I have dom­i­nat­ed glob­al mar­kets for three years and val­ue investors like Nathan who don’t want to know a com­pa­ny sell­ing at 50 times earn­ings have been left behind. So I, you know, that’s kind of been, I guess, our expe­ri­ence in some respects.

[00:38:18] Tony Kynas­ton: I’ve tried to find a way of hav­ing a check­list and the val­u­a­tion method to trade the growth stocks, but I’m, I’m still scratch­ing around to get some­thing that looks worth­while. Uh, ’cause you know, when you, it’s, it’s fun on the way up, but, uh, boy does it, uh, hurt when the, as they say, the mar­ket climbs the esca­la­tor and goes down the ele­va­tor shaft when it, when it crash­es.

[00:38:41] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, so that’s, I think, ahead for growth stocks. Uh, but look, my take on this, um, I call this the val­ue your best lament, and I’ve heard it two or three times over my invest­ing career, even from peo­ple like War­ren Buf­fet. I heard it from a guy called, uh. What was his name? Maple Abbott Brown. I think his name was Famous Aus­tralian Val­ue Investor back in the nineties.

[00:39:02] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, in the lead up to the.com boom. You know, our per­for­mance is under­per­form­ing, uh, because of all the growth per­for­mance in the mar­ket, but we can’t find any­thing to buy is a, is a com­mon sort of refrain. Um, we’re find­ing things to buy. I mean, um, and there are still gems out there in the val­ue, uh, space.

[00:39:21] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, I, I think there was a graph includ­ed in the post, and I think one of the things to be care­ful of is that when mar­ket indices, um, are com­pared, they put togeth­er by com­pa­nies like s and p or Moody’s or who­ev­er. Uh, and they gen­er­al­ly just rank the, um, ASX 200, for exam­ple, by PE ratio and they call the top deciles growth and they call the bot­tom deciles val­ue.

[00:39:49] Tony Kynas­ton: And they’re pret­ty broad strokes and, um, you know, uh, just. Doing that sim­ply is not, is not, is a very broad brush approach to com­par­ing those two, uh, because there’s lots of growth stocks that don’t make any mon­ey. So they’re not, they don’t have good qual­i­ty. Um, and there’s lots of stocks like we know that, uh, have great qual­i­ty in the val­ue space and we try and sep­a­rate those out using the QAV process.

[00:40:13] Tony Kynas­ton: So just a, a very broad val­ue ver­sus growth, um, approach does­n’t nec­es­sar­i­ly shed any light on what’s going on. But yeah, this has cer­tain­ly been a, um, a tougher time in gen­er­al for val­ue investors and growth investors. And, you know, I, I’ve heard peo­ple talk about their invest­ments in pro medicus and how great it’s been.

[00:40:31] Tony Kynas­ton: And it has been. I don’t deny them that at all. But, um, I, I am like, uh, the invest­ment, uh, ana­lyst. I’m not gonna buy some­thing at a very high pe um, just ’cause there’s a risk of it going down. And we’ve, and that risk is there for all stocks. We’ve talked about the, the miss­es drop­ping shares that we own by 10, 15%.

[00:40:51] Tony Kynas­ton: That’s hard. That’s tough, but it’s not life end­ing. And when you know, the.com burst and shares dropped 80%, that’s a big dif­fer­ence.

[00:41:01] Cameron Reil­ly: And none of the stocks that I hold across all of the port­fo­lios that have come in with these results that have been ham­mered in the last week, I’ve had to, I haven’t had to sell any of them because they’re all, you know, they’ve gone up well enough that they’re above their three PTL. They’re above their rule one.

[00:41:16] Cameron Reil­ly: So far it’s a cou­ple that are close, but you know, a MP is kind of on the line for one of my port­fo­lios, but. You know, I’ve been, I’ve been talk­ing to some peo­ple about this in recent weeks, um, and just try­ing to help them under­stand what, for me is the mind­set, the QAV mind­set for me, which is long-term, have a, hav­ing an invest­ment phi­los­o­phy and strat­e­gy that tries to get you dou­ble mar­ket on aver­age over the long term.

[00:41:50] Cameron Reil­ly: Rel­a­tive­ly low risk, rel­a­tive­ly low stress. And yes, you are, you, you miss out on, you know, Bit­coin type growths or Nvidia or Tes­la or what­ev­er, high growth upside there is. But you know, it’s this idea like once you, once you say, okay, I’m open to ga, the gam­bling side of invest­ing, where do you draw the line?

[00:42:19] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:42:20] Cameron Reil­ly: So once you say, okay, I’m gonna take a punt on this and I’m gonna take a punt on that, and I’m gonna take a punt on this once, that’s your mind­set there. I’m gonna, I’m gonna gam­ble. Then there’s no, where’s the dis­ci­pline come in Once you, you, you, you, you open your­self up. It’s the anal­o­gy that I’ve been using.

[00:42:41] Cameron Reil­ly: It’s like, okay, it’s a bit like, okay, I’ll snort line of coke and, you know, I’ll take some fen­tanyl and I’ll, uh, you know, take some what­ev­er opi­oids and I’ll inject some­thing into my eye­balls and some smack, I mean, once you, I hope up the door

[00:42:59] Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

[00:42:59] Cameron Reil­ly: to those sorts of things, where do you draw the line? Like, it only takes one of those things to go bad and you can find your­self in a dif­fi­cult posi­tion.

[00:43:09] Cameron Reil­ly: So, uh, like I think of the, the QAV mind­set is sen­si­ble. Um, look­ing for the good long term. Sus­tain­able growth over the long haul by hav­ing a prac­ti­cal strat­e­gy for try­ing to find good com­pa­nies that are under­val­ued, but well run and invest­ing in them, cut­ting your loss­es if things go wrong. It’s just like a, a sen­si­ble, rel­a­tive­ly con­ser­v­a­tive mind­set to do, to do well, and they go, well, you’re under­per­form­ing this, you’re under­per­form­ing that.

[00:43:42] Cameron Reil­ly: And I’m like, yeah, I don’t care. I’m not, I’m not mea­sur­ing, I don’t, I’m not mea­sur­ing myself on that met­ric. I’m mea­sur­ing myself on long-term, con­sis­tent, ratio­nal invest­ing and good returns.

[00:43:57] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Uh, look to thank you for that. I think it’s a good sum­ma­ry, but, but also to flip it over, I mean, if you want to approach the stock mar­ket as a casi­no, what’s, what are your rules? Like, that’s why the song and the gam­bler goes, you got­ta know when to hold them, know when to fold them, right? So you’ve got, before you start to gam­ble, you’ve got­ta know what your rules are.

[00:44:16] Tony Kynas­ton: And I think peo­ple have this men­tal­i­ty a bit like the pig pan­ther, that they can ride the ele­va­tor shaft down, but step off onto a sol­id ground just before it hits and be okay. And, um, you know, I’ve, I’ve looked at all of those com­pa­nies, looked at his­to­ry. You, you can’t like frog a leapfrog across the high­way and hap­pen to land on every­thing that goes up.

[00:44:38] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, and not have a rule for get­ting out before things crash. Like if you use three point trend lines, for exam­ple, just go and put a three point trend line on the Bit­coin graph. I mean, the sell line is so far below the price. Um, you know, you’d be los­ing all your mon­ey before you got out if you use that as an exam­ple.

[00:44:57] Tony Kynas­ton: So maybe there are some oth­er ways to do it, but, um, but yeah, I think, you know, I haven’t heard in, in my many decades of read­ing about invest­ing and look­ing at the mar­kets and look­ing at investors, any­one who’s been able to jump from the ASX to the us to the bricks, to Bit­coin, to MAGA sev­en, mag sev­en, or what­ev­er, all at the right time.

[00:45:20] Tony Kynas­ton: You know, you, you, you’re gen­er­al­ly siloed. Um, you don’t have to be, you can have a diver­si­fied port­fo­lio, but you’re gen­er­al­ly siloed into, you know, being a tech investor or a biotech investor or com­modi­ties or what­ev­er. Um, because you need to, to be able to have some con­fi­dence to, to have the rules you need, you need to know a bit about the indus­try.

[00:45:43] Tony Kynas­ton: So, um, yeah, it’d be great to be able to step, step across all the, all the mov­ing stones at the right time, but I’ve nev­er seen any­one do it and I don’t think it’s pos­si­ble. And so, which means that if you, if we’re in the ASX, um, yeah, it’s gonna under­per­form the US on some, some years, it’s gonna out­per­form in some years, um, et cetera, et cetera.

[00:46:01] Tony Kynas­ton: So, uh, you know, hope­ful­ly we can add the US to our invest­ing uni­verse this year and, um, you know, we’ll expand and pick the best of both, but, uh,

[00:46:12] Cameron Reil­ly: I have, and it’s up a hun­dred per­cent.

[00:46:13] Tony Kynas­ton: yeah. Well, there you go. So, so, um. We found that per­haps found a way to do it, but um, yeah, it’s still using our tried and true tried and true rules, uh, around it.

[00:46:27] Cameron Reil­ly: The mind­set that peo­ple often throw at me. You say, well, you just take 5% of your port­fo­lio and put it in Bit­coin. I’m like, okay. But then if you’re gonna do that, then why not take 5% of it and put it in Doge­coin and take 5% of it and put it in Trump coin, and then you put, take 5% of it and put it in Nvidia, buy the dip, and then you take 5% of it and put it in what­ev­er Wall Street bets is pro­mot­ing this week.

[00:46:49] Cameron Reil­ly: What were the to the moon stocks? Uh, there’s the, the video chain in the US that the red­di­tors were behind. Um, I haven’t looked at that for a while. Like the whole, just take 5% of it and put it in some­thing risky thing. You’re like, okay, well how many five per­cents do you take and put it in? How many risky things?

[00:47:07] Cameron Reil­ly: It’s, you know, it’s kind of just this, it’s slop­py think­ing is, uh,

[00:47:12] Tony Kynas­ton: To, to be fair to that think­ing, um, the only per­son I’ve heard do that suc­cess­ful­ly is, um, Nicholas Tay­lor who wrote The Black Swan Book and, and oth­er ones. And he has this, this thing, I think it’s called the Bar­bell Strat­e­gy, or the Dumb­bell Strat­e­gy, where he takes 95% of his port­fo­lio and puts it in risk-free assets, like, which he calls T Bonds.

[00:47:33] Tony Kynas­ton: So like War­ren Buf­fet invest­ing in US trea­suries, and then he mucks around with the 5%. So, you know, I have, I have some regard for that as a process, but he, he open­ly acknowl­edges the five per­cent’s got­ta, you know, be a 20 x. Return before it makes a dent in the 95% in let’s say trea­sury bonds. Um, ’cause it’s, you know, it’s only 5% of the port­fo­lio.

[00:47:56] Tony Kynas­ton: If it dou­bles, uh, okay, he is made 5% of his port­fo­lio. It’s not, it’s got­ta real­ly shoot the lights out. But that’s how he scratch­es his itch, I guess. Um, but yeah, I mean, if you are right, if he, why 5% is the ans is the answer to I’m tak­ing 5%, put it in Bit­coin. If you’re that con­vinced, take 50, take a hun­dred.

[00:48:16] Tony Kynas­ton: If you think bit­coin’s that good and if you’re not, take half of your, or if you have to scratch an itch. Yeah.

[00:48:23] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, GameStop was, uh, one of the, to the moon stocks. I’m just look­ing at it, it, uh, went up to $16 25 USD in 2021, no, hold on. $81.

[00:48:41] Tony Kynas­ton: I told you I went to a GameStop.

[00:48:43] Cameron Reil­ly: Yes.

[00:48:44] Tony Kynas­ton: the US and

[00:48:45] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah,

[00:48:46] Tony Kynas­ton: there was me and tum­ble­weeds, there was crick­ets in the store. There’s noth­ing there.

[00:48:51] Cameron Reil­ly: It shot up to 81. It, it was trad­ing at sort of a dol­lar, a dol­lar ear­ly 2020 round. Begin­ning of Covid shot up to $81 by Jan­u­ary, 2021. It’s now at $25. And has, uh, been slid­ing down ever since all of the hype cir­cle. So if you bought it any­where in that peri­od, in ear­ly 2021, you know, by the mid­dle of the year it was still trad­ing at 60 bucks.

[00:49:20] Cameron Reil­ly: It’s been slid­ing down­wards ever since. So if you bought it before the hype in 2020, you’re prob­a­bly quite hap­py. If you bought it any time after it start­ed get­ting hyped, you’ve prob­a­bly lost mon­ey on it.

[00:49:35] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. And if you, and, and that goes the same for Trump coin as well, so, you know, if you wan­na put, you wan­na put mon­ey into Bit­coin, why don’t you put it in the Trump coin? Same sort of thing. Yeah,

[00:49:45] Cameron Reil­ly: Uh, let’s see. You had a ques­tion about whether or not low­er inter­est rates are in the check­list.

[00:49:51] Tony Kynas­ton: did. So inter­est rates were cut last Tues­day, and we, we have a cou­ple of cells in the spread­sheet, which check checks for them. And I, I, I down­loaded your spread­sheet from Mon­day and I can’t see the cells, um, where that would nor­mal­ly be record­ed, so I’m just check­ing to make sure it’s in there.

[00:50:07] Cameron Reil­ly: Cells being CEL?

[00:50:10] Tony Kynas­ton: Cor­rect.

[00:50:10] Cameron Reil­ly: Um, no, prob­a­bly not. So, um, I will update the inter­est rates in the check­list.

[00:50:20] Tony Kynas­ton: And um, yeah, share that to any­one else who’s doing their own down­loads to do it. As for them­selves too,

[00:50:26] Cameron Reil­ly: Do you know what the rate is?

[00:50:28] Tony Kynas­ton: 4.1%.

[00:50:30] Cameron Reil­ly: 4.1%.

[00:50:33] Tony Kynas­ton: You bet­ter Google that. I’m going from mem­o­ry.

[00:50:35] Cameron Reil­ly: I will. Thanks for pick­ing that up. Alright, what’s next?

[00:50:43] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, I did have a cou­ple of oth­er things which came in late. If you don’t mind me just look­ing at a cou­ple of oth­er share relat­ed issues. Um, actu­al­ly I’ve got. Three or four oth­er arti­cles to get to, but I might leave a cou­ple of them for, um, for next week, giv­en we’ve been speak­ing for a while. The first one to talk about though, is, well, first one I’ll talk about is Tel­stra.

[00:51:03] Tony Kynas­ton: So they, they are one of the com­pa­nies that report­ed, uh, good results. Um, and their shares are up a lit­tle bit. Uh, and I just want­ed to call out, I did a down­load myself today to do the pulled pork on Par­en­ti. ’cause I think their results hit Stock Doc­tor last night, per­haps. Um, and that’s anoth­er thing, anoth­er shout out to peo­ple is when you’re doing down­loads and who­ev­er you, you are your data provider is, make sure you’ve got the most recent results in your analy­sis.

[00:51:33] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, so for par­en­tis case, we were look­ing at, uh, results from Decem­ber, 2024. Um, so that’s the first thing. Uh, Tel­stra results are in, they were good. And the down­load I did showed them just being the stock that was. Just off the buy list. So they’re the first stock off the bot­tom end of the buy list. But I thought I’d high­light that because um, they are a huge a DT stock for any­one look­ing for some­thing to buy with a large port­fo­lio.

[00:52:01] Tony Kynas­ton: So have a look at Tel­stra. Uh, but I did wan­na also high out have you got any NRW in our port­fo­lios at all because they’re in a trad­ing halt. And it came out, I think yes­ter­day that, um, NRW being a min­ing con­tract­ing busi­ness is owed up to $120 mil­lion in the col­lapse of the wire­less steel­works and the near­by iron ore mines that sup­plied raw mate­ri­als to the San­jeev Gup­ta owned group.

[00:52:29] Tony Kynas­ton: So, um, they went into a trad­ing halt where they try and work out how much is owed and they’re also wait­ing for, uh, the admin­is­tra­tors who’ve been appoint­ed to y to hold a meet­ing and kind of out­line what cred­i­tors might be get­ting out­ta that. So, um. Not good news, uh, but, um, we’ll find out in the next cou­ple of days.

[00:52:52] Tony Kynas­ton: ’cause they said that they would, uh, they’ve asked for a trad­ing halt, um, until Feb­ru­ary 28th. And, uh, they may extend that, but they may also have an, an answer as to what they’re unlike­ly to get back from Y ali­bi then

[00:53:06] Cameron Reil­ly: I do not hold NRW and have nev­er held NRW. Hmm

[00:53:11] Tony Kynas­ton: They’ve cer­tain­ly been on the, um, on the buy list a num­ber of times. Yeah. I know that it prob­a­bly has­n’t been a stop to buy for a while ’cause the share price has been com­ing down because, um, I think it, uh, uh, um, I’ll have to check my facts, but I think there was a, a large block sale towards the end of last year, which start­ed to depress the price.

[00:53:32] Cameron Reil­ly: Right. I.

[00:53:32] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Any­way, it’s been com­ing down. Uh, so that were the two things I want­ed to talk about. So I can do a pulled talk now if you like.

[00:53:40] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, I’ve got some stuff to, some new stuff just to touch on before you do that. Aus Wide bank, our old friends from Bund­aberg, my old home­town, a BA, were acquired by my state bank. They were sus­pend­ed from trad­ing on the 10th of Feb­ru­ary. I did hold them in a cou­ple of, uh, port­fo­lios and some of our lis­ten­ers may have, if you haven’t, uh, noticed this go through.

[00:54:03] Cameron Reil­ly: They were acquired, sus­pend­ed from trad­ing on the 10th of Feb­ru­ary. Then they were removed, delist­ed, what­ev­er, on the 20th of Feb­ru­ary, eli­gi­ble a BA share­hold­ers will receive 1.112. My state shares for each a BA share that you held onto. So, uh, take. Note of that in your port­fo­lio, you now are the proud own­er of MYS shares.

[00:54:34] Tony Kynas­ton: Inter­est­ing time for the bank­ing sec­tor and I’ll talk about it a bit more next week. But, um, you know, the bank’s regen basi­cal­ly mort­gage. Bro­kers build­ing soci­eties, they’ve still got some busi­ness, um, you know, bank­ing sec­tions and cred­it cards and uh, car loans and stuff. But, uh, they don’t have their wealth busi­ness­es.

[00:54:54] Tony Kynas­ton: They don’t have insur­ance any­more. So I think a cou­ple of things, I think, um, CBA right­ly is the, is the biggest, uh, mar­ket cap of the four major banks, large­ly because, uh, I think it has the low­est, um, has, has a high mar­ket share, but it has the low­est, uh, that’s, uh, mort­gages that are going through, uh, mort­gage bro­kers.

[00:55:19] Tony Kynas­ton: In oth­er words, they’re orig­i­nat­ing most of their, a larg­er amount of their own mort­gage loans, which gives a, gives ’em a mar a mar­gin advan­tage, um, which is hard to com­pete against because then they, they turn that mar­gin back into price com­pe­ti­tion and low­er their prices. So that’s always tough to com­pete against.

[00:55:36] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, so inter­est­ing times for the. Bank­ing indus­try, if inter­est rates are cut again, I mean, 0.25% isn’t a big deal to them, but as inter­est rates get cut, they, um, they’re gonna have to low­er their mar­gins because, um, you know, in a high inter­est rate envi­ron­ment, the spread between what they have to pay deposit hold­ers and what they can, um, get from mort­gages is, uh, is high­er.

[00:56:04] Tony Kynas­ton: There’s a num­ber then, um, when inter­est rates are low­er and that, that, that mar­gin gets com­pressed. So it’s not hap­py days for them. So the rea­son I, I call that out is because you prob­a­bly see more merg­ers in the small bank­ing sec­tor. Um, there’s always been talk of some of the medi­um sized ones, like, uh, uh, Bendi­go and per­haps, uh, well, Bendi­go merged with Ade­laide years ago, but per­haps Bendi­go and one of the oth­er ones like Bank of Queens­land.

[00:56:30] Tony Kynas­ton: Um. Sun­cor­p’s just being, uh, uh, absorbed by a NZ. So there’s gonna be a lot more m and a activ­i­ty, I think, in the bank­ing space going for­ward.

[00:56:38] Cameron Reil­ly: indeed. Uh, also in the news, LAU Lind­sey. Came out with their half report share price col­lapsed by 15% the oth­er day. Uh, we do hold that in, uh, a few port­fo­lios. Um, it’s one of those ones that we’ve held for quite a while, uh, since 2022. I’ve held it in three port­fo­lios, the dum­my port­fo­lio and two of the light port­fo­lios.

[00:57:10] Cameron Reil­ly: It’s up 20% in one of them, but, uh, 44% and 64%. And anoth­er one, we bought it some­where between 42 and 57 cents, depend­ing on the port­fo­lio. It’s now trad­ing at 69 cents. So even though the share price took a bit of a hit when their results came out, it did­n’t come close to becom­ing a sell for us. It’s just, uh, not as good of a hold­ing as it was.

[00:57:37] Cameron Reil­ly: Um, their rev­enue went up three and a half per­cent, but their net prof­it after tax fell about 19% year on year. So that’s, uh, not great. Earn­ings per share, also slipped, prof­it mar­gin, squeezed, et cetera, et cetera. Same with what we’ve been hear­ing across the board. PRN, you’ve talked about HLI, Helia came out with their results this morn­ing and they were up 12%, so that was a.

[00:58:08] Cameron Reil­ly: Like a rare, uh, pos­i­tive sto­ry with half year results. I hold them in one port­fo­lio. One of the light port­fo­lios added them about a two years ago, Jan­u­ary, 2023, and they’re cur­rent­ly up 102% over that peri­od of time. Bought ’em at $2 80. They’re now $5 66 and up 17% today so far since their results came out.

[00:58:35] Cameron Reil­ly: So, you know, there are win­ners and there are losers, and we hold them in. We rough­ly equal mea­sure.

[00:58:44] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:58:45] Cameron Reil­ly: We, we just hope we hold just one, one more win­ner than we hold losers at this time of year.

[00:58:51] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, yeah, but I also would like, you know, it not to get these sur­pris­es on annu­al results announce­ment days. Sure­ly we should be get­ting, um, get­ting these announce­ments a bit ear­li­er.

[00:59:03] Cameron Reil­ly: But even if you get them dur­ing con­fes­sion sea­son. The same thing hap­pens, right? The share price takes a hit. We, it just hap­pens a month or two ear­li­er than what it gets any­way, so,

[00:59:15] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

[00:59:16] Cameron Reil­ly: Um, alright, well that’s all I’ve got. Do we have time to do it, Paul Pork? We’re already at an hour. Tony, I think we prob­a­bly

[00:59:25] Tony Kynas­ton: Hap­py to. Yep, I can do that. It’s on, it’s on par­ent. In fact, uh, we have requests for Par­en­ti and super cheap, so thank you for, for both of those. Um, why don’t just quick­ly talk about the Par­en­ti results and we’ll go into more detail next week. So, Par­en­ti came out as one of these stocks that came out and, uh, the mar­ket shot first and asked ques­tions lat­er, and it, I think it dropped like 15% when it came out.

[00:59:53] Cameron Reil­ly: 18%

[00:59:54] Tony Kynas­ton: Thank you. But, well, as I was doing the pulled pork today, I’m look­ing at the share price and it’s get­ting high­er and high­er and high­er. So it’s recov­ered at least half of that, um, this morn­ing as mar­ket digests. What’s going on?

[01:00:05] Cameron Reil­ly: Up 8% today, so not quite half, but yeah, almost back to half. Yeah.

[01:00:11] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. So again, this is one of these, um. One of these com­pa­nies, I think whether, um, I don’t know whether it’s com­put­er-based trad­ing or AI or what­ev­er, it looks at the num­bers and goes, not good sell.

[01:00:22] Tony Kynas­ton: And then they read what the CEO has to say and they go, Ooh, okay. Maybe it’s, it’s okay. But, um, you know, uh, so what a cou­ple of things. Um, free cash flow was one of the head­lines, uh, that was called out as a miss. Uh, and it was down this, this half. And the CEO said, yeah, but that’s because we, um, we had some­one, uh, who did­n’t pay on time and they’re com­ing, they, they came into Jan­u­ary rather than Decem­ber.

[01:00:49] Tony Kynas­ton: And you know, I think, uh, ed or some­one like that in the Face­book group said, hang on. That’s, that’s not, that’s not much of an excuse. And it’s not real­ly, because I know when I was run­ning busi­ness­es, I ran, before results came out, I looked at my sundry cred­its and deb­its and if there was some­thing that was going to come in late, I had the option of, I think I was required to, but often­times I.

[01:01:13] Tony Kynas­ton: Make it option­al. They’ve put it into this year’s results or next, next half’s num­bers or even month­ly into the num­bers, um, or not. And the way it’s done is via sundry cred­its and sundry deb­its. So if they knew they were, if they were con­fi­dent they were gonna get the mon­ey in Jan­u­ary from the late pay­er, he could have raised the CEO, could have raised, um, a pro­vi­sion for that and took the mon­ey in in Decem­ber and then deb­it­ed Jan­u­ary’s results and took it off of Jan­u­ary’s results.

[01:01:40] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, chose not to, so for what­ev­er rea­son, and I can’t, I’m only spec­u­lat­ing as to why one, one might be that they did­n’t have the con­vic­tion they were gonna get it all back. So I did­n’t wan­na account for it in Decem­ber, but I know when I was run­ning busi­ness­es it would often be, well, I’ve made my tar­get this half.

[01:01:57] Tony Kynas­ton: So what, what’s the use of. Out­per­form­ing, I may as well keep it in the Jan­u­ary num­bers and uh, and get off to a good start for the next half. So I’m not cast­ing asper­sions, but I think, you know, there was a bit of dis­cre­tion in whether it was report­ed in or not. So, um, there’s that. They also called out that, um, and Pat was, was down year on year, but then they said that was because they had a non-cash write­up of their busi­ness acqui­si­tion that occurred in 2023.

[01:02:30] Tony Kynas­ton: So, fair enough. Um, so good rea­sons as to why there were a cou­ple of miss­es and I think the mar­ket’s got it wrong ’cause they are good rea­sons. My over­all com­ment is Jesus, make the account sim­ple. You, you should be able to explain ’em to a 6‑year-old, not, not have to wor­ry about whether there was a non-cash right back or a sundry cred­it or deb­it in there some­where.

[01:02:52] Tony Kynas­ton: Just keep it as sim­ple as and as unag­gres­sive as pos­si­ble in your account­ing, and you’ll do a lot bet­ter with the mar­ket than mak­ing them stop and read every­thing in detail.

[01:03:02] Cameron Reil­ly: Isn’t it like going to a mechan­ic and you say, what’s wrong with my car? And he goes, yeah, well your dip slash Finn is uh, up the, uh, kaki and we’ve got­ta replace the Dal fanger with the, uh, you know, try to baf­fle him with bull­shit. Is that what they’re try­ing to do?

[01:03:17] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, pos­si­bly. I think what they’re try­ing to do is to, I think what hap­pened, this is, this is me being cyn­i­cal. Um, I think what they did was they, they, they wrote up their acqui­si­tion of DDH one, which was a great acqui­si­tion and it out­per­formed for them in 2023. And they were car­ry­ing it on their books at the val­u­a­tion.

[01:03:35] Tony Kynas­ton: And they said, okay, we need to, um, write up that val­u­a­tion. It’s a bet­ter asset than we thought. And that improved their prof­it num­bers, per­haps when they need­ed it in, in 2023. Now it’s 2024. They’re say­ing, oh, we should back that one out when we’re com­par­ing 2024 to 2023 again, per­haps when they need it.

[01:03:53] Tony Kynas­ton: And then they’re play­ing around with, um, uh, late pay­ments and when they occur. So. When I looked at the web­site and looked at their CEO, he’s, I’d have to say, um, I dun­no how old he is. He’s got a very fresh face. So I’m won­der­ing if this is part of a learn­ing expe­ri­ence for him. He’s prob­a­bly come out and decid­ed, I can play fast and loose with the num­bers, but you, you can’t play fast and loose with the mar­ket.

[01:04:15] Tony Kynas­ton: And I think, um, if he can, if that’s one les­son from this results, um, I hope he’s learned it. Just keep it sim­ple, keep it hon­est, keep it, um, unag­gres­sive and, uh, the mar­ket will like you a lot bet­ter, um, than try­ing to fina­gle things.

[01:04:30] Cameron Reil­ly: I think we’ve got a QAV Club mem­ber who works at Par­en­ti, so uh, maybe he can give us, uh,

[01:04:35] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, please, bit of insight, bit insight

[01:04:39] Cameron Reil­ly: call out that I own PRN in, uh, quite a few port­fo­lios, includ­ing my own super, uh, but also the dum­my port­fo­lio and a light port­fo­lio. My super, I added it only Novem­ber last year, and it’s up like 3%, but, uh, the dum­my port­fo­lio had it since May last year.

[01:04:58] Cameron Reil­ly: It’s up 25%. Light port­fo­lio is about the same. So, um, it’s, uh, done. Okay. Uh, it’s again, anoth­er one of those shares that had a big drop this week, but it was a safe hold for us, um,

[01:05:19] Tony Kynas­ton: And bounc­ing back. And I should also declare, I own, I own par­ent­ing and my own port­fo­lios as well and did­n’t have to sell it after the, um, results, which was good. It was, I bought it, uh, I sold Grain Corp. I. Towards the end of last year, I think around Octo­ber or Novem­ber and bought par­ent­ing, it was up like 30 or 35% for me.

[01:05:39] Tony Kynas­ton: So it’s cropped back to 10 to 15 odd now. Um, and the price is jump­ing around, so it’s hard to get a exact num­ber at the moment. So it’s still, um, it’s still doing well, but it, uh, I think the mar­ket’s over­re­act­ed a bit to this result up.

[01:05:52] Cameron Reil­ly: mm. Well, there you go. Well, I think that’s the show apart from some after hours. Tony, I think we can draw a line under that. It was good. Lot of lot of stuff going on. No ques­tions, but plen­ty of news. What have you been doing in after hours apart from golf­ing with Rud­dy?

[01:06:12] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, we, have you seen the SNL 50th anniver­sary show?

[01:06:16] Cameron Reil­ly: Not the full thing. I’ve seen lots of clips of it on Tik­Tok and stuff, but not the full thing.

[01:06:21] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Very good. Worth a watch all the way through.

[01:06:25] Cameron Reil­ly: I dun­no, I don’t even know where to watch it. Is it on binge or some­thing? Here?

[01:06:28] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, I think it was on Fox­tel when Rod­dy and I watched it.

[01:06:31] Cameron Reil­ly: That’d be binge.

[01:06:33] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Okay.

[01:06:33] Cameron Reil­ly: I saw the share, uh, per­for­mance of turn back time, the con­cert. Did you see that? Did you see the con­cert or just the show?

[01:06:43] Tony Kynas­ton: I saw the show.

[01:06:45] Cameron Reil­ly: So they had the show, which looks great, but then they had a con­cert where they just had like a celebri­ty. So Chris­sy’s, um, you met Elise. Remem­ber Chris­sy’s niece, Chris­sy and her niece were in Syd­ney and they ran into you.

[01:07:00] Cameron Reil­ly: So Elise, her niece, the niece, Elise, lives in New York now and she’s a, she’s a mas­sive, mas­sive Bea­t­les nerd fan. And McCart­ney was doing a show, like a small show in New York this week that she found out about late because he was there for the SNL thing. She rocked up ’cause she tried to get a tick­et, could­n’t get a tick­et.

[01:07:22] Cameron Reil­ly: So she just rocked up at the venue and sort of fina­gled her way in. But she said she told Chris­sy she was, uh, she went to like the VIP entrance to see if she could like talk her way in. She said the line­up of peo­ple. Was just insane. She’s like, there was every celebri­ty ever. ’cause they were all in New York for the SNL thing and they all went to the McCart­ney thing.

[01:07:49] Cameron Reil­ly: So she said there was like, you know, Lau­ra Dern was there and blah, blah, blah. She was rat­tling off all the celebri­ty names and she was like, just a gog. She got in and there was a pho­to, there was an offi­cial pho­to take. It was like a, it is like your birth­day par­ty, you know, when we had the Angels play, like a small club, a hun­dred, 200 peo­ple there.

[01:08:07] Cameron Reil­ly: Some­body took a pho­to of the audi­ence around the stage and she’s, she put, she sent us a pho­to with an arrow go. That’s me hold­ing up my

[01:08:13] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, fan­tas­tic.

[01:08:15] Cameron Reil­ly: wrapped, but um, yeah, so at the, at the con­cert that they had, Cher came out singing, if I could Turn Back Time dressed in the same, see through Body Stock­ing she wore in 1989 or when­ev­er that song first came out and I was telling.

[01:08:37] Cameron Reil­ly: Chris­sy, ’cause she was only 10 years old at the time. I remem­ber when this, when she, when the, when the film clip for this came out. Cher was like 40 at the time. And it was a huge sort of, holy shit. She can pull that off at 40 moment. Now she’s 78 and she came out wear­ing the same thing and with the wig on.

[01:08:57] Cameron Reil­ly: So, you know, she looks exact­ly there, some plas­tic surgery, but it’s not too bad. But she pulled it off. Like she, she, she absolute­ly nailed the per­for­mance. I was super impressed that she pulled it off at 78.

[01:09:11] Tony Kynas­ton: Fan­tas­tic. Did you see her see her in the Super Bowl ad?

[01:09:15] Cameron Reil­ly: No,

[01:09:15] Tony Kynas­ton: I. When, if I could turn back time and she gets trans­port­ed back to the mid mid­dle ages,

[01:09:21] Cameron Reil­ly: all

[01:09:21] Tony Kynas­ton: starts singing and they go, which, which burn­er?

[01:09:27] Cameron Reil­ly: uh, was that a recent one or an old one.

[01:09:29] Tony Kynas­ton: The last Super Bowl. Yeah.

[01:09:30] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, okay.

[01:09:31] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, McCart­ney per­forms in the SNL 50 TV show.

[01:09:35] Cameron Reil­ly: Right.

[01:09:36] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, and I saw him live last year in Syd­ney and he was real­ly good. He was a bit read and a bit old. His vocals did­n’t real­ly han­dle the, the, um, the con­cert. This time I was a bit dis­ap­point­ed and I had, uh, lit­tle Wayne or some­one on it, which I fast for­ward­ed through.

[01:09:53] Tony Kynas­ton: Did­n’t, did­n’t like that at all. Um, Adam San­dler got up and did the song, and talk­ing of celebri­ties like the. Uh, Tina Fay and Amy Pohler made a bit of a joke about it that, uh, all the peo­ple who they could­n’t fit on stage for a skit. We sat in the audi­ence. So it was just like Jack Nichol­son, Robert De Niro, Tom Han­ks, uh, just fame, Steven Spiel­berg, famous celebri­ty after famous celebri­ty in the audi­ence.

[01:10:18] Tony Kynas­ton: So they went through a lot of them as part of their com­e­dy rou­tine.

[01:10:21] Cameron Reil­ly: Jack was there.

[01:10:22] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. And look­ing pret­ty old too.

[01:10:26] Cameron Reil­ly: you have to be. Yeah. I haven’t seen Jack and any­thing for a long, long, long time.

[01:10:30] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[01:10:32] Cameron Reil­ly: They’re all old these guys, man. They’re all get­ting

[01:10:34] Tony Kynas­ton: Kei­th Richards was in the audi­ence. He gets up and he goes, I think I left a ban­dana here back in the eight­ies, has any­one seen? And then Zach Gal­i­fi­anakis is wear­ing a band, which is quite fun­ny. Uh, so yeah. Well worth a look. Um, watched, uh, have you seen the doc­u­men­tary on Hand, Zim­mer?

[01:10:57] Cameron Reil­ly: No, but I saw, I saw a post on Red­dit the oth­er day of him play­ing key­board in video. Killed the radio star. Appar­ent­ly he was the key­board play­er in the Bug­gles in the eight­ies. Yeah. Which I had­n’t. I did­n’t know. I was like, holy shit. Real­ly? Wow. No, it’s a good

[01:11:18] Tony Kynas­ton: yeah. Very

[01:11:19] Cameron Reil­ly: doc doc­u­men­tary, huh? Just on his life and career.

[01:11:23] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Did so much and, and scored so many things. I think his first Hol­ly­wood movie was Rain Man, so way back then.

[01:11:31] Cameron Reil­ly: Wow,

[01:11:31] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. And

[01:11:33] Cameron Reil­ly: at his, his Wikipedia page here, he worked with the Bugles. Zim­mer can be seen briefly in the Bugles music video for the 1979 song video. Kill the Radio Star. There you go.

[01:11:43] Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm. Yeah. So I rec­om­mend that I watched the doc­u­men­tary, which I real­ly enjoy, called White Riot. Um. if you would have liked it, but, uh, about, um, rock Against Racism back in the sev­en­ties and the UK fan. Fan­tas­tic. I real­ly enjoyed it.

[01:12:02] Cameron Reil­ly: I. I, um, I was talk­ing to my sifu at Kung fu the oth­er day. He’s a Scots­man and, um, we end­ed up talk­ing about music or some­thing and he was telling me he used to go see the Clash all the

[01:12:14] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh,

[01:12:15] Cameron Reil­ly: grow­ing up in the UK in the like late sev­en­ties, ear­ly eight­ies. And I was think­ing, oh yeah, I know some­body who would be very jeal­ous of that.

[01:12:24] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. He goes, ah, I used to go see them all the time, you know?

[01:12:28] Tony Kynas­ton: this doc­u­men­tary is about these two, uh, sort of come­di­ans who set up rock against racism at the time when the nation­al front was look­ing like it might win. The British elec­tions back in the sev­en­ties was real­ly becom­ing a dom­i­nant force and skin­heads were out there beat­ing up. Black peo­ple and, and, uh, Asians at, at con­certs.

[01:12:50] Tony Kynas­ton: And these two guys put out a, um, a fan zine call­ing for peo­ple to write in. And this is like before mobile phones and the inter­net and all that. Writ­ing them become ambas­sadors for rock against racism and hold con­certs in their local area and all this kind of stuff. And, uh, real­ly sort of, um, involved lots of influ­en­tial peo­ple includ­ing, you know, the way that a lot of mag­a­zines looked after that, with that kind of news­pa­per cutouts of police hold­ing right shields and, um, being, uh, peo­ple being beat­en up.

[01:13:23] Tony Kynas­ton: And, you know, there’s the whole, the clash­es in it a lit­tle bit, but it’s real­ly about some of the black artists, um, and the nation­al front and the, and then the march­es against the nation­al front and how the police would pro­tect the nation­al front, but they would­n’t do much for the, for the anti, uh, fas­cist league and all this kind of stuff.

[01:13:41] Tony Kynas­ton: And it cul­mi­nates in, um. The famous Vic­to­ria Park con­cert where the Clash head­line play­ing White Riot. Um, which is the end of the show. And, and if you, if you any­one’s seen Rude Boy, it’s the same footage from that which is real­ly bright and colour­ful and fan­tas­tic, and 80,000 peo­ple turn up and like the, right up until the morn­ing, they did­n’t know that any­one was gonna show it.

[01:14:05] Tony Kynas­ton: It’d been rain­ing all week. The idea was they were gonna have an um, uh, an anti-nation­al front march from Raf­fel Square to Vic­to­ria Park, which is, you know, five Ks away or some­thing. Um, and you know, the guy who’s orga­niz­ing it turns up, no one’s there, and then sud­den­ly bus­loads of peo­ple arrive and. It just grows and grows into 80,000 peo­ple attend­ing this, this March, the nation­al front go home.

[01:14:33] Tony Kynas­ton: They’re like, no. They, they start­ed off, you know, doing Zeke Hole salutes as the march­es go past and after about an hour they go home, like, we’re not gonna hang around for this. And then they have this huge con­cert, which is fan­tas­tic. So it’s a real­ly good, real­ly good doc­u­men­tary from a his­tor­i­cal point of view about that’s Britain, what was going on about the, you know, peo­ple, the coal min­ers out of work, all that kind of stuff.

[01:14:57] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, and uh, just how com­mu­ni­ties can put things togeth­er to, to counter that, which we may well have to rely on in the future.

[01:15:06] Cameron Reil­ly: Eh, the nation­al front. I know they’re still around. I mean, I remem­ber, uh, talk­ing about them on our Cold War show a while ago. Um, they were start­ed by jour­nal­ists called AK Chester­son Chester­ton. I seem to recall, um.

[01:15:28] Tony Kynas­ton: was their polit­i­cal leader. He came from North­ern

[01:15:30] Cameron Reil­ly: he? Oh real­ly? Yeah.

[01:15:33] Tony Kynas­ton: One of the, um, floats in this rock against racism parade was, uh, the rub­bery fig­ures peo­ple had put togeth­er refugees of Enoch Pow­ell and some of the oth­er lead­ers of the nation­al front, which looked quite,

[01:15:45] Cameron Reil­ly: Hmm. Yeah. Um, it was all sort of, uh, they were very mixed up in sort of the mil­i­tant Chris­tian­i­ty anti­semitism in the U.K. in the, the thir­ties and for­ties.

[01:16:02] Tony Kynas­ton: mm.

[01:16:04] Cameron Reil­ly: Uh, what else? Who’s Rick But­ler?

[01:16:08] Tony Kynas­ton: Rick But­ler died, which is a, was a real blow to me. Rick But­ler was the drum­mer for the jam.

[01:16:13] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh,

[01:16:15] Tony Kynas­ton: Guy that at the ten­der age of 69, which isn’t much old­er than me, uh, always, you know, one of my, one of my favourites in the music scene. ’cause he was always just such a standup guy, you know, nev­er had a media pres­ence him­self.

[01:16:31] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, the Jam sort of was only around for a few brief, brief years. And then Paul Weller start­ed the Style Coun­cil and ditched the oth­er two mem­bers. And Bruce Fox and the bass play­er, and I think Rick But­ler may have done this for a while, formed a, a cov­er band for the jam, like a trib­ute band called From the Jam and kept play­ing jam songs up until the present time.

[01:16:52] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, Rick But­ler kind of, I think opened up a men’s wear store but would do speak­ing tours and things like that. I read his auto­bi­og­ra­phy a cou­ple of years ago, which was fan­tas­tic about that scene back in the late sev­en­ties, ear­ly eight­ies in the UK and what they went through. Um, but just a, like a real down to worst standup guy.

[01:17:10] Tony Kynas­ton: And it was just such a shame to see him pass away.

[01:17:13] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, 69 is way too young. That’s how old Bowie was. Bowie died too.

[01:17:19] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, real­ly?

[01:17:20] Cameron Reil­ly: Too young. Very young. Yeah.

[01:17:23] Tony Kynas­ton: Yes.

[01:17:25] Cameron Reil­ly: well, I fin­ished look­ing Glass War, uh, yes­ter­day, the third Le Carre nov­el. And I got­ta say I loved it. It was, I as bleak as the pre­vi­ous two, if not more bleak. Like, and I could see it com­ing, like the end­ing of it. I could just see it com­ing and it, uh, but it was so bru­tal and bleak and just sad and trag­ic and yeah.

[01:17:57] Cameron Reil­ly: But like, I loved it. I real­ly, I, I, I loved just how sort of trag­ic the whole group were. I dun­no if you remem­ber how it plays out, but.

[01:18:07] Tony Kynas­ton: I don’t, no. In fact, I don’t even think I fin­ished it. It was from mem­o­ry. The Look­ing Glass War was a radio. It start­ed life as a radio plane and he turned it into a book. So it

[01:18:16] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, okay.

[01:18:17] Tony Kynas­ton: from, if I’m, my mem­o­ry might be shak­ing on that, but it always had the least sort of flesh. It was­n’t as com­plete as the oth­er nov­els I’ve found.

[01:18:26] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, like the first half of the book, uh, is, you know, these sort of this uh, sec­ond rank intel­li­gence agency in the UK that have had one of their guys killed who was try­ing to get some film from a pilot who was fly­ing over some part of East Ger­many where they thought there was some­thing sus­pi­cious going on some Russ­ian tanks or mis­siles or some­thing.

[01:18:49] Cameron Reil­ly: They send a guy over, mid-lev­el guy ends up dead. They send anoth­er guy over to try and find out what hap­pens and he can’t, he gets scared off, but. And they’re all sort of incom­pe­tent and want to be spies. And then they get sort of approval from the min­istry to do an oper­a­tion and send a, send a guy in there to find out.

[01:19:12] Cameron Reil­ly: And then, so the sec­ond half of the book is all upbeat. They’re all sort of excit­ed and they’ve got some fund­ing and they’ve got approval and they’re gonna show the smi­ley guys the, you know, the, the, the, the real agents, how it’s done that they should­n’t Yeah, they’re, they’re not infe­ri­or. And they try, they find this old guy work for him in the war.

[01:19:30] Cameron Reil­ly: Some Pol­ish guys liv­ing in Lon­don and they train, they, you sort of retrain him and get him ready and they all go off to Ger­many and he goes in and imme­di­ate­ly gets, sort of screws it up. And, you know, he’s, he’s send­ing wire­less sig­nals back and he gets it all wrong. All of his train­ing goes out the win­dow, like lit­er­al­ly the minute he lands.

[01:19:51] Cameron Reil­ly: And the Ger­mans pick, pick him up and the Rus­sians pick him up and they warn him. And then news gets back to Eng­land that the, this guy’s botched it. And then Smi­ley has to all, all of the, the sec­ond rank guys, the senior guys that set up this whole oper­a­tion are in West Ger­many where the guy’s gone over the bor­der and Smi­ley rocks up and says, pack up your gear guys, you’ve got­ta go home.

[01:20:15] Cameron Reil­ly: And they’re like, but, but our guy’s there. And he’s like, does­n’t mat­ter. He’s prob­a­bly dead already. It’s just, they’re like, but, but we can’t just, I guess, yeah, just pack it up. I, I can’t even believe you got this far. Well done. You did a good job. Like, you, you, you, you, you real­ly like, it’s just so sad and bleak and just.

[01:20:38] Cameron Reil­ly: You know, it’s just, just bru­tal. Absolute­ly bru­tal. And, uh, I, I loved it. Uh, you know, any­way, there you

[01:20:46] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh good. I’ll have to go back and call it out and give it a read. So what’s next in La Carre Can­non?

[01:20:53] Cameron Reil­ly: I don’t know, but I’ve got the Len Day­ton, I’ve got the Ypres

[01:20:55] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh

[01:20:55] Cameron Reil­ly: lined up to read next. But then a Russ­ian, a Russ­ian friend of mine is got me read­ing some Russ­ian lit­er­a­ture. I’m gonna read the 12 chairs, which. Uh, he, he, I read the OV one recent­ly that had put me under the dog’s heart, which was great. He is put me under this oth­er one 12 chairs for sort of the same era I’ve seen the film.

[01:21:13] Cameron Reil­ly: Mel Brooks made a film ver­sion of it in the sev­en­ties, which I saw as a kid and I vague­ly remem­ber it, but I haven’t seen it for a long time. Basi­cal­ly, the sto­ry is I think some­body, some wealthy Jew­ish guy dies and in his will, he tells his fam­i­ly that there were 12 din­ing chairs and he had stuffed all of the jew­els into one of them, but they’ve sold it all off.

[01:21:40] Cameron Reil­ly: I think he dies and they all get sold off, and then they have to go hunt­ing for these chairs and try and find the one with the jew­els that have, but not let any­one know that the jew­els are in them. And there’s this, this sort of, this dark com­e­dy thing. Any­way, so I’m gonna read that. Then I’ll prob­a­bly read Len Day­ton and then I might get back on the Ler­ay.

[01:21:56] Cameron Reil­ly: But yeah, I’m real­ly enjoy­ing the Ler­ay stuff. It’s refresh­ing in a, in a sort of a.

[01:22:03] Tony Kynas­ton: They in a very, yeah. Dis­mal way.

[01:22:04] Cameron Reil­ly: Dark, bleak. Yeah. Kin­da way. I’m in a dark, bleak mood at the moment

[01:22:10] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, okay.

[01:22:12] Cameron Reil­ly: obvi­ous rea­sons.

[01:22:13] Tony Kynas­ton: Eat some­thing.

[01:22:15] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh yeah. Well, as I told you, off air. Yeah. I just fin­ished, I did a 36 hour fast. My first one I’ve done in 20 years. I fin­ished that this morn­ing and that was, that was fun.

[01:22:25] Cameron Reil­ly: Except I woke up hun­gry in the mid­dle of the night. The day­time was okay ’cause I could drink, but I woke up sort of two 30 feel­ing hun­gry and had to stave that off until sev­en 30 this morn­ing. But, um, yeah, it was cool.

[01:22:38] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Well

[01:22:39] Cameron Reil­ly: Uh, Chris­sy and I have been watch­ing the final episodes of Cobra Kai, uh, ’cause my boys have been berat­ing me not hav­ing fin­ished it.

[01:22:46] Cameron Reil­ly: They said it’s great and it, the last cou­ple of episodes have been pret­ty good, I have to con­fess. And I’m halfway through Furiosa. Did you watch

[01:22:55] Tony Kynas­ton: I did. Yeah. I found it a lit­tle dis­ap­point­ing.

[01:23:00] Cameron Reil­ly: I heard my boys went to see it at the pre­mier and they canned it and they canned Chris Hemsworth’s per­for­mance. And I did­n’t mind that so much. My feel­ing so far is kind of, I’ve, you know, it’s just Fury Road too. And Fury Road was great, but this is sort of just the same thing all over again and I’m like, eh,

[01:23:28] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[01:23:29] Cameron Reil­ly: you know, fury Road was great because it was so dif­fer­ent and sur­pris­ing and this, I’m just like, I’m not, I like, I found myself even­tu­al­ly sort of clean­ing the kitchen with it on in the back­ground, sort of gla glanc­ing at the screen.

[01:23:42] Cameron Reil­ly: Not that sort of glued to it, you know.

[01:23:47] Tony Kynas­ton: I, I think Chris Hemsworth could, should steer away, com­ic away from com­e­dy. It’s not, I remem­ber he was, he had a part in the female Ghost­busters sequel, which was comedic and he had

[01:23:59] Cameron Reil­ly: that was just a bad film. That was­n’t his fault. Like

[01:24:01] Tony Kynas­ton: no, I was gonna say he was good. He was fun­ny in it play­ing the dumb Beef­cake sec­re­tary. But, um, ever since then, he’s tried to be a come­di­an and he’s not, and

[01:24:11] Cameron Reil­ly: No, the first, the first Tai­ka Wait­i­ti Thor film. I thought he was great when they made the switch to com­e­dy. I thought that was hilar­i­ous. The sec­ond one, the Love and Thun­der one they did did­n’t real­ly land, but the, the first one that they did, I thought he pulled it off quite well. But look, he, he’s not, you know, let’s, he’s a good look­ing kid with mus­cles.

[01:24:31] Cameron Reil­ly: I mean, he does­n’t real­ly have, he’s not

[01:24:34] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Has­n’t been through the standup roof. Has he Real­ly?

[01:24:37] Cameron Reil­ly: or any­thing, you

[01:24:38] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[01:24:39] Cameron Reil­ly: Like as soon as he on neigh­bours or home in a way or some­thing,

[01:24:44] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. No,

[01:24:45] Cameron Reil­ly: um. Like, I’m a big fan of George Miller, though, like I, I a huge admir­er of George Miller. I think George Miller’s had an out­stand­ing career, not just the Mad Max stuff, but a pig babe, what­ev­er it was, and Hap­py Feet.

[01:24:59] Cameron Reil­ly: And like, he’s just real­ly had a tremen­dous, tremen­dous career.

[01:25:05] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, and I grew up on his, uh, minis­eries back when minis­eries were a thing on tv,

[01:25:09] Cameron Reil­ly: What was

[01:25:10] Tony Kynas­ton: uh, body Line, the Dis­missal

[01:25:12] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh right. I for­got that he was part of those, yeah.

[01:25:16] Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

[01:25:17] Cameron Reil­ly: What was his part­ner? Kennedy. Kennedy Miller. The Kennedy Miller things. Yeah. Yeah. Like, I like a lot of love, a lot of time for George Miller. Like he’s one of those guys who should just, you know, be giv­en end­less amounts of mon­ey and just told, go do what­ev­er you got­ta do.

[01:25:32] Cameron Reil­ly: The sad thing is though, appar­ent­ly he was gonna do a third Fury road film, which was gonna be the max. Sto­ry. Um, but I think that’s kind of when fur bombed at the box office. I think that’s prob­a­bly, and he’s, he’s in his eight­ies now, so like Scors­ese, I dun­no if he’s got any films left in him, real­ly,

[01:25:52] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm.

[01:25:53] Cameron Reil­ly: which is sad, I would’ve loved to have seen.

[01:25:55] Cameron Reil­ly: But you know, we, uh, you’ve seen the news this week that Ama­zon Prime now con­trol­ling the Bond fran­chise. Not that it can, you know, not that it can go any fur­ther south than it’s already been going. Like, not that the broc­coli stew­ard­ship was doing that greater job of it in the last 20 years, but I’m sure it’ll just con­tin­ue to get worse.

[01:26:19] Cameron Reil­ly: Like the Star Wars uni­verse under Dis­ney. Um,

[01:26:22] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, did­n’t they have a mil­lion dol­lars to oh sev­en or some­thing? Some kind of real­i­ty show. It was their first out­ing, the Bond fran­chise. ’cause they had the bond, they’ve had the Bond fran­chise for a while, but they only just recent­ly got con­trol of James Bond, the char­ac­ter. And the rumour is they paid Bar­bara Broc­coli, a bil­lion dol­lars, um, to get that.

[01:26:44] Tony Kynas­ton: ’cause she was hold­ing out say­ing, I’m not gonna entrust James Bond to a bunch of Ama­zon exec­u­tives. Yeah. Tech exec­u­tives who’ll, who’ll run data rou­tines and decide what Bond should do next. But, and, and the, the, it was a big mis­step hav­ing Bon­di and I know Daniel Craig pushed for that and want­ed that to come back and reprise, but it was a mis­step.

[01:27:07] Tony Kynas­ton: So where did they go from here?

[01:27:10] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, did­n’t he die at the end of George Lazen­by’s film too?

[01:27:15] Tony Kynas­ton: His wife did, I think, did­n’t she?

[01:27:17] Cameron Reil­ly: Uh, I thought he did too.

[01:27:19] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, I could be wrong.

[01:27:21] Cameron Reil­ly: I loved the Lazen­by film.

[01:27:23] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[01:27:24] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

[01:27:24] Tony Kynas­ton: the open­ing when he gets beat­en up and he goes, this did­n’t hap­pen to the last

[01:27:28] Cameron Reil­ly: The o the oth­er guy. Yeah. but any­way, my point was gonna be, I’m sure uh, the Mad Max fran­chise will end up with one of those places

[01:27:42] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh yeah.

[01:27:44] Cameron Reil­ly: there was, there was one nod I, where I was watch­ing the Furiosa last night. There’s one line, Chris Hemsworth has Deus where he says, you want to get out­ta here? Fol­low me. I was like, ah, okay.

[01:27:59] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, I get it. Yeah. I still think they should have brought back Mel. I mean ass batch of crazy as Mel is, I would’ve loved to have seen Mel come back and do a

[01:28:10] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh yeah,

[01:28:11] Cameron Reil­ly: old age max

[01:28:14] Tony Kynas­ton: Liv­ing in a cave with his dog.

[01:28:16] Cameron Reil­ly: run­ning, no run­ning a Catholic reli­gious fun­da­men­tal­ist group in Bro­ken Hill. 20 wives, 50 kids, him and Elon in a, in a bomb shel­ter.

[01:28:31] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

[01:28:33] Tony Kynas­ton: anti-Semit­ic. Nation­al. Nation­al Front chap­ter in Bro­ken Hill. Yeah.

[01:28:38] Cameron Reil­ly: Is Bruce, what’s his face? Still around

[01:28:40] Tony Kynas­ton: Bruce Stern. I don’t

[01:28:42] Cameron Reil­ly: no, no, no. Not Bruce. Bruce Spence. Is he still alive?

[01:28:47] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. I dun­no. Could be. He’d be fun. I’ve seen him in some­thing recent­ly, so Per­haps, yeah. He’s

[01:28:53] Cameron Reil­ly: You could just get, um, you could get, uh,

[01:28:57] Tony Kynas­ton: would’ve grown up by now. Yeah.

[01:28:59] Cameron Reil­ly: I’ve seen the fer­al kid on stuff. Like they trot him out for Mad Max, uh, you know, cel­e­bra­tion road show, Com­ic-Con type things. They could get Steven Mer­chant to do the Bruce

[01:29:10] Tony Kynas­ton: Yes.

[01:29:11] Cameron Reil­ly: role, you

[01:29:12] Tony Kynas­ton: point. Yes, they could. That’s a good call.

[01:29:17] Cameron Reil­ly: the two. No, like an old Max. Just an old sort of, and Mel would­n’t have to act like just old, crazy Max, just, you know,

[01:29:31] Tony Kynas­ton: The desert made him crazy.

[01:29:32] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, just tell Mel there’s some Jews around some­where and he’ll just go, ah. Any­way.

[01:29:40] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh yeah. And it did­n’t have the Fury Road. Did­n’t have Char­l­ize, which I thought was a big, a big gap between, um, the leads.

[01:29:50] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, she did­n’t seem like she had a good time mak­ing the first one any­way. I’m not sure she would’ve want­ed to come back.

[01:29:56] Tony Kynas­ton: Real­ly? Okay.

[01:29:57] Cameron Reil­ly: Uh, she and Tom did­n’t real­ly get along and spent a lot of time in the desert and think she got over the desert and all that kind of stuff. I did read that she, uh, found out that she was dis­ap­point­ed when she found out she was­n’t gonna be in it.

[01:30:12] Cameron Reil­ly: But, uh, I also read com­ments from her over the years say­ing it was­n’t a very good expe­ri­ence mak­ing it so, Hmm.

[01:30:18] Tony Kynas­ton: Was she just angling for more mon­ey like Daniel Craig used to do? I’m nev­er gonna do anoth­er James Bond movie ever. Nev­er.

[01:30:26] Cameron Reil­ly: I don’t think he said that. I think he said right now I’d rather slip my wrists and do anoth­er bond film. But that’s ’cause he just, he was in the mid­dle of pro­mot­ing it and shoot, he just shot it and he’s pro­mot­ing it and the whole thing. I think he was just kind of tired, but, uh, yeah, I don’t think he said I’ll nev­er do anoth­er one just right now.

[01:30:44] Cameron Reil­ly: I don’t. It was like when Bill Gates said, no, no one needs more than eight megabits of, uh, eight megabits of Ram. He did­n’t mean ever. He meant

[01:30:54] Tony Kynas­ton: right

[01:30:54] Cameron Reil­ly: right now. Right now did you see Microsoft­’s, uh, quan­tum com­put­er chip, they launched last

[01:31:01] Tony Kynas­ton: did. Yeah. Impres­sive.

[01:31:04] Cameron Reil­ly: maybe.

[01:31:05] Tony Kynas­ton: You think what? You don’t think so? Hype.

[01:31:09] Cameron Reil­ly: I’ve seen, I’ve seen physi­cists go, yeah, it’s just, it’s a good sto­ry. But let’s see.

[01:31:15] Tony Kynas­ton: All right.

[01:31:16] Cameron Reil­ly: But it took every­one by sur­prise. I, I was telling Steve on the futur­is­tic pod­cast last week, I, when I read the sto­ry, I imme­di­ate­ly put it into Chachi PT and said, is this an April Fool’s Day sto­ry? Because I did­n’t under­stand any of the words that we used in the press release.

[01:31:33] Cameron Reil­ly: It was just Mabb, Rana, zero mode, blah, blah, blah. I’m like, what? Any­way, turns out it’s some­what real. Alright, that’s the show.

[01:31:45] Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

[01:31:46] Cameron Reil­ly: Thank you. Tk.

[01:31:48] Tony Kynas­ton: I should say, just before we came on, air baf­fle run third in a race. Um, in sale, and, sor­ry, not baf­fle. Uh, cha-changes ran third and baf­fle runs on the 27th, so in two dash time.

[01:32:01] Cameron Reil­ly: Is that good for chicha changes or is that dog food?

[01:32:04] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, well, it’s, it’s good. We thought he, um, she would win, but, uh, it was, it was a blan­ket fin­ish, so, um, she, she was third by like a les­son ahead, so could result.

[01:32:17] Cameron Reil­ly: Hmm. Okay.

[01:32:18] Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

[01:32:20] Cameron Reil­ly: Well con­grat­u­la­tions. I

[01:32:21] Tony Kynas­ton: Thank you. All right. See you next week.

[01:32:24] Cameron Reil­ly: See ya.