Welcome back to QAV. This is episode 628. We’re recording this on the 11th of July 2023. Last week was the brand-new financial year, but it’s still a brand new financial year as far as I’m concerned. Anything is possible. Could be the greatest year of investing ever. We don’t know. How are you, TK?
Yeah, good. Thank you. Yeah, it’s a lovely day up here in Sydney.
Here too. Have you hit a little white ball around today?
Not today. No. Tuesday’s QAV day, so I don’t have time to go out and play Golf. I played yesterday, I’ll play tomorrow. Playing for the rest of the week with Ruddy, he’s up here.
After Wagga. Oh, he’s up? I thought you were going down.
I am, I’m going back when he goes back. But he’s up here.
I want to start off by doing a shout out to Adi, new club member who jumped on Zoom with me for a how’s your father the other day. Had a bit of a chat, it was nice. I always love chatting to the new members. Giving them a little bit of an insight, showing them around. It’s like doing a house inspection. I’m like, “here’s the club member resources page. Here’s the checklist. Over here behind this closet we have the Brettelator.” It’s always fun. Portfolio report: portfolios still where it’s always been, 2.8 times the STW since inception, when I checked this morning. But I wanted to point out LAU, because I saw LAU had a corker of a week. It was up 14%, I think, in the last week. It’s the new FMG in our portfolio. We bought it in the dummy portfolio on the ninth of June last year, we bought it at 42 cents. It’s currently at $1.25. It’s up 202%. It’s had two dividends, nice dividends in that time. 200%. So, if we were rebalancing, we probably would have sold it a long time ago.
Oh, yeah. And I haven’t checked the graph on LAU, but we could also have sold it out if we were using a trailing stop loss, I would think.
Probably. Yeah, it hasn’t always been steady and it’s down. It was up even higher than that, I think, a month or so ago. It’s come back a little bit, but yeah, it’s it’s been a corker. So, in future whenever we’re talking about “would you bench Michael Jordan”, we can’t talk about FMG. Now we need to talk about LAU. It’s the new FMG. It’s the new superstar in the dummy portfolio. Again, it’s one of those things. I think I’ve bought and sold it a few times over the years, Lindsay, and I’m always like, “I don’t know, I’ve bought and sold this before.” But this last time, over the last year, it’s been a Corker.
Yeah. And before I forget, too, someone asked me, one of my friends asked me what STW was. That’s our benchmark. It’s the ASX 200 Accumulation Index Fund.
That’s right, yeah. The SPDR 200 Accumulation. We know the RBA held on rates last week, we mentioned that during the show, and the market had a corker after that. The market was quite happy for a couple of days, and then not so much after that. Just crashed afterwards. I don’t know what’s going on, Tony. The RBA says “no, we’re not gonna raise interest rates,” the market goes “you beauty!” And it goes up for a day and then it goes, “yeah, but you’re probably going up in a couple of months, aren’t you? Yeah, alright.”
That’s probably what happens to interest rates overseas and what the speculation is there as well. There was some data in the US and speculation was there’d be two more interest rate raisings over there. It came through last week and that sent markets down a bit.
The US has to ruin all of our fun over and over. Only good thing I ever got out of America was my wife. MQG, Tony, it’s still showing up on your list of holdings.
Not anymore. I just hadn’t updated it. I sold it either Friday or Monday, Friday, I think.
I was wondering what was going on.
My fault. I normally just wait until I buy something to replace it and then change the list once, which I have today, so it’s now updated. There was nothing to buy on Friday. Everything was having a down day.
Yeah. MQG is another one of these stocks. I’ve bought and sold it I reckon half a dozen times in the last few years. I’ve never had a win on MQG. I know they’re a great company, but I always lose money on MQG. I don’t think I lost this time, because the dividend was paid and then it’s slunk below its three-point trendline.
Well, the interesting thing about MQG was its operating cash flow turned negative at its last results, which we would have got a month or two ago. I remember a couple of years ago wondering if that was a trigger for a sell and couldn’t get a definitive answer, but it’s bought us once again.
Right. We talked about URW last week. We’ve talked about it for a couple of weeks, actually. You did a pull pork on it I think last week. We asked people to let us know if they’ve been able to buy it successfully. A couple of people reported back. Steven reported that he bought it in the last couple of days using Macquarie as the broker. I asked him if they warned about CDIs and French fees and that kind of stuff. He said, “no alerts popped up when I made the trade. It went through the normal trade. When I looked up the ticket code it did write that it was a CDI in the description but no more information.” Dave said he bought it via SelfWealth. There was a 0.3% French tax charged at the end of the month, but no tax on exit trades. So, you pay it on the way in but not out.
So, he’s exited already, has he?
I don’t know. Maybe they just told him there would be no tax. I don’t know. I wanted to ask you about the wheat price, Tony. Sam, speaking of French taxes, Sam picked up that the TE chart, Trading Economics, one of the charts that we use to look at the wheat price differs from the Stock Doctor futures chart for wheat. Then I went and had a look at it and tried to make sense of the different charts. I couldn’t make sense of it. TE is reporting the price of 660 USD a bushel, Stock Doctor was reporting that it’s 106 AUD a bushel. Then I found one on businessinsider.com that said it was 253 USD a bushel. Then Sam also added there’s a production projection: “Australian producers should have an above average volume but lower than the last three bumper years in volume. The US is in a drought, so production is expected to drop very significantly, which may affect the price in favour of GNC,” GrainCorp, which I added to the dummy portfolio today. By the way, that’s what I replaced MQG with, I think.
Yeah, I did the same thing.
“The signals are mixed, so we’ll have to rely on the QAV rules as is mostly the case,” he said. Are you able to make any sense out of all of these wheat price differences?
No, I can’t. And I’m not an expert, I really can’t shed any light. The Stock Doctor graph looks strange. It looks like there was some kind of consolidation a year or so ago, because the graph drops dramatically. I’m really not sure what’s right and the figures were different as you said. PE was 253 a bushel, Stock Doctor’s 106 a bushel, so I just don’t know what’s going on. I’m not an expert. I’ll have to do some research into it.
I’ll ask Stock Doctor what’s going on. Moving right along, James suggested Michael Kemp a guest to come on the show. Apparently, he has written a few books about investing. He sounds like a bit of a value guy. There was one book some people were talking about, The Ulysses Contract. He’s an Aussie, he used to work for Scott Pape, I believe, the Barefoot Investor. “The Ulysses Contract: how to never worry about the share market again.” Are you familiar with this guy at all, Tony?
The name rings a bell. I don’t think I’ve read any of his books, but I’ve got a feeling he used to either be associated with a writer that wrote a column for someone like Colin Nicholson, one of the services I used to subscribe to decades ago. Either Colin Nicholson Building Wealth through Shares or maybe Your Money Weekly, one of those anyway, he was featured in. Yeah, happy to have him on the show for sure. Wasn’t there a Kemp who was the lead singer for ABC?
ABC? The band? Shoot that poison arrow through my heart? Let me look. Steven Singleton, Mark White, Mark Lickey, David Robinson, David Palmer, Fiona Russell Powell, David Yarritu, Martin Fry. No, no Kemp.
No Kemp? I got that wrong then.
Do they have any other songs? They only have that one song. “Shoot that poison arrow through my heart.”
Didn’t they have Gold as well?
No, that was Spandau Ballet.
Oh, that must be who I was thinking of.
“Gold! Always believe in your soul. You’ve got the power to gold. You’re indestructible. Always believe it…”
Martin Kemp is the guy.
Really? That was them. Spandau Ballet. There you go.
Well, get him on the show. We can ask him to sing Gold for us.
He’s probably not old enough to have ever heard of Spandau Ballet. Have to be our age. Hey, speaking of…
I think he.
Oh, is he? Do you remember the Wombles?
I went on this deep dive about the Wombles yesterday because we were sitting down to dinner, and I was playing some Paul Simon in the background. Fox says, “who’s this?” And I explained Paul Simon and then I explained Simon and Garfunkel, and then we’re listening to a bit of Simon and Garfunkel, and then Chrissy mentioned that she saw Garfunkel live when she was living in Germany. I was like, I don’t even know any of Art Garfunkel’s solo songs. So, I went on Spotify, and the number one song was Bright Eyes from Watership Down.
I thought that was Simon.
No, it’s Garfunkel. But the song was written by. I apologise to everyone shaking their head thinking “what the hell’s going on.” That song was written by a guy called Mike Bat, and I looked up this Mike Bat character. He not only wrote bright eyes and the soundtrack for Watership Down, which I loved as a kid, cried my eyes out when I watched Watership Down. But he has a great story behind him. So, he was commissioned in the early 70s to write the theme song for the Wombles TV show, and he waived the flat fee for writing a single song and instead secured the rights to write songs under the name The Wombles. The band released several albums and singles, all four studio albums when gold and four of the singles reached the top 10 in the UK chart. The Wombles were the most successful musical act of 1974 in the United Kingdom, and he not only wrote Bright Eyes for Watership Down, he also co-wrote the title song Phantom of the Opera with Andrew Lloyd Webber. A talented chap.
And business savvy as well.
Yeah, smart. “I tell you what, wipe the fee, just give me the rights to use the name.”
The biggest selling act in ’74 would have been knocking off Elton John…
Paul McCartney, John Lennon, Queen. I don’t know who else was on.
Yeah, good for him. Yeah, I thought you’d appreciate that. So, I showed Fox and Chrissy clips from the Wombles. They were like, “what?”
It was a pretty lame TV show. I seem to recall ignoring it when I was a kid.
I loved it as a kid! It was really mellow. It was like, “hello. What’s that? Oh, look, there’s some things over there…” It’s all stop motion animation, there were puppets…
And they had a good message. They were recycling everything.
Exactly, yeah. I explained that to Fox.
Imagine explaining that to get a grant from the BBC to make a TV show.
It was based on a series of much-loved children’s books, apparently. Anyway, back to investing. So, Michael Kemp. I’ll read his Ulysses book and we can get him on or invite him anyway. Now, a number of our listeners have posted results in the last week, which is nice. They’re all over the place. Jeff: “inspired to share. I haven’t learned more being a member of to QAV…” No, sorry. Let me start that again. “I have learned more being a member of QAV for a couple of years than I did in the previous twenty-odd years as an investor. Surprised with the results because my portfolios always seem a mess with pe-QAV stocks, too many overall, uneven weightings and not always following the rules. I benefited from writing NHC and selling just off the peak. Also sold SHL bought pre-QAV during COVID cough. Shows you only need one flyer. My other portfolio gained 11.8% due largely to dividends.” So, he’s posted a screenshot from Stock Doctor here. His QAV portfolio starting on the first of July 2022 was up 16.05%, beating the STW which was up 14.78. So, he’s the only person I’ve come across yet who beat the index using QAV last year.
He didn’t quite use it though. He sold out of NHC at the peak. That was good.
Maybe that’s the lesson here, is you can do well with QAV in bad years, just don’t follow any of the rules. Trent posted his results as well. Congratulations, Jeff. Well done. Champion resolt.
Yeah, well done Jeff. And thanks for sharing, mate. Good.
Yeah, I appreciate everyone sharing, whether they’re good or bad, and I think you set the bar for that. It was brave of you last week to report your results. Oh, by the way. My super results I think came in at about -7 after I managed to factor in all of the dividends, so not as bad as yours. But I was sitting on a lot of cash, had a lot of double positions, too, in the super. It was a sucky year for a high ADT portfolio. Anyway, Trent says, “I had an 8.8% return in the FY when including dividends. Without dividends I went backwards.” Yeah, dividends have been really playing a big role in our portfolios the last couple of years. I love this, he says, “currently hold ten positions, four of which are in breach of rule one, but I live in hope. Over the financial year have held twenty-one stocks and twelve positively contributed to the overall return. Have sold eleven stocks in the last twelve months. Five of these made money but slightly negative overall. Three shares have done the majority of the heavy lifting: IGL, KGN, and WDS.” This is the bit I love the most: “the biggest benefit of QAV for me is having a system to sell. That monthly process of looking at the 3PTL sell line has created a discipline that I didn’t apply before. Second benefit is having a buy list of companies to research based on a system. I’m still getting my head around the buying process; I still use a lot of my gut feels sprinkled with some research to decide what to invest in rather than just buying the next most suitable ADT stock.” But then he said, “WDS is a commodity sell, so of the ten stocks I own, 50% are in breach of the QAV rules. Turns out I’m more of a loose cannon than I thought.” I was like, he said earlier the biggest benefit is having a system that tells him when to sell, the next second, he says I don’t sell.
Well, what did he say he had? 8% for the year, which is better than us who applied the rules. It’s backwards.
There you go. Yeah. I think that’s what we’ve learned from all of this, is don’t follow the rules. “WDS, up 10% excluding dividends, but is a commodity sell. We use 3PTL with a 20% flat bottom fudge factor to decide where I’ll sell. The remainder of rule one breaches are down between 12%-22% based on initial capital. A few of them pay dividends, so total percentage loss is less. Some are quite illiquid, so jump around a bit, and a couple have been on and off the buy list, which I take to mean maybe one day the tide will turn.”
In all seriousness, though, yes. Some people who didn’t follow the rules have done better than we did following the rules. But long term, I would expect that following the rules is probably the smart move.
I mean, these are two people as well. So, there could be a whole heap of people out there who have followed the rules and done okay, as well. So, there’s that. But I don’t have a problem with what they’re doing, because the whole thing about QAV is empowering people to do it themselves, right?
If you want to fudge the rules, go for it. The hard part is if you keep following your gut, you’re not even following your own rules, right? You haven’t made rules, you’re just following your gut.
That is a rule: “I follow my gut.”
But is it worthwhile… I know we put out the scorecard every week telling people what new commodities are available. Is it worthwhile putting out a weekly summary of 3PTLs and commodity sells as well, so people aren’t missing out on sell signals if they’ve just been distracted for the week, or they’ve worked hard for the week and haven’t noticed their portfolio?
How would we do that exactly?
Just when Alex is putting together the scorecard, she could just list anything that’s become a sell this week.
Out of the entire ASX?
Yeah, I’ll have to think about it. There’d have to be some kind of comparison between last week’s buy list and the current buy list and what’s not there.
But even stocks may have dropped off the buy list three months earlier, you’d have to track everything.
I’ll ask Chat GPT.
Okay. Well, I had an interesting discussion with Taylor when he dropped in a couple of weeks ago and he said, “you need discipline. You need to be accountable. We should be sending emails out to everyone to tell them exactly when to sell.” Yeah, that’s not a bad idea. But that’s gonna be hard to do.
He wants us to make all of our listeners accountable. He thinks everyone should turn up to a Skype call with me every day and swear that they’ve been following the rules, and if they don’t follow the rules, we should brand them or have a public whipping or something like that.
Yeah, he said QAV should be like AA.
I think he’s speaking from personal experience. I think he’s still holding stocks that are like 50% down and he just doesn’t sell them.
If people aren’t selling because they miss their sell signals, then maybe we can try and do something to put out alerts or a weekly summary.
If they’re ignoring their Stock Doctor alerts, what makes you think they’re gonna listen to alerts?
Which reminds me, it’s a new month. Update you Stock Doctor alerts.
Maybe I can just buy a caravan, go on the road and knock on everyone’s door. Just surprise them in the middle of the night. Knock, “who’s there?” “Cameron.” “Cameron, who?” “Cameron, have you checked your alerts this week.”
Yeah. The Leyland brothers. Scott also shared his results for the financial year. “I started in September 22. Didn’t fully fund my account into October 22. ADT greater than 15k and I’ve held fifteen stocks. Result according to Navexa is -7.3%. If I calculate based off the balance, I get -8.8%. I’m not sure why the difference.” Yeah, none of us understand how Navexa works, Scott, welcome to the club. “I thought maybe franking credits, but that’s not it. I followed rule one pretty well but didn’t properly understand the second buy line at the start. In saying that, I was looking okay in January, most of the downturn came after that. I had twenty-eight R1s. Another factor is my account is relatively small, so brokerage is significant. The result may have been closer to -5.5% if I had a large account and brokerage wasn’t so significant.” Yeah, that as we’ve talked about in the last couple of weeks, that’s going to cut into your returns quite a lot of you have small parcel sizes.
Yeah. But maybe — I don’t know who Scott’s broking with — there might be a cheaper broker out there as well. Brokerage isn’t that expensive for small portfolios these days, so that could be an option. But yeah, look, I think we’re hearing this from people who started in the last twelve months, aren’t we? Or the last six to twelve months? It’s been a tough start. But as we’ve said before, hang with it, because you go through periods like this and come out the other end okay.
Yeah, I think in the last eighteen months it’s been pretty tough. But the dummy portfolio is the evidence point for me. We started it in 2019, it’s looking really great versus the index. What do we always say? The quote we stole. It’s not timing the market that counts, but time in the market.
Correct. It’s an interesting point, though, too. I’ve noticed over the years that fund managers who’ve started at the end of a crash have always posted great returns. Which is probably just the start date being low, which helps them boost their returns over the years.
A little bit of luck in your start date, but we can’t do anything about that unfortunately. Yeah, that’s all I’ve got for chitter chatter today, Tony, what have you got to talk about?
Nothing really, I’ve just got a pulled pork to do.
What are you doing this week?
The code is NZM, and this is a dual listing both in New Zealand and in Australia. The company is a media company in New Zealand, large run over there. A lot of print media. So, New Zealand Herald, but all the large cities in New Zealand have a newspaper put out by NZM. Started off, interestingly enough, around the dotcom time. There was a kid who set up a company, or a website portal called stuff.nz which was like the yahoo.com of New Zealand. So, it was a portal, it would put content out there and classifieds was probably the biggest one at the start, anyway, and it survived off advertising revenue. It got bigger and bigger, bought out by Nine Entertainment, and then recently sold back to the New Zealand… I think it was actually a management buyout about three years ago in New Zealand, and they’re trying to make it work. This is just like we spoke about when we did Seven West Media as our deep dive, because it’s a media company, advertising revenues are defecting to social media so they’re doing it tough. And the journalists who bought it out have decided to try and put as much behind a paywall as they can now. They’re seeing that as the potential saviour, but who knows. So, it is a media stock. It’s not without its risks for those reasons. Plus, the other risks that this company faces is its biggest competitor is probably Radio New Zealand, which is state run, so it doesn’t care what the advertising markets doing. It’s gonna keep churning out content regardless. So, yeah, it’s a challenging market, but it does come with a strong legacy of brands, not just the newspapers and the portal which has classifieds and I think also car sale classifieds, and also home sale classified. So, think of Stuff New Zealand as pretty much all of the individual ecommerce brands in Australia like your Seek and your cars.com, and domain.com and real estate.com rolled up into one, plus add The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald and some other newspapers. And then add Nova FM and the radio networks that go with them. So, that’s pretty much what Stuff New Zealand is in New Zealand, and it’s called NZ Me. So, that’s the company. Like I said, it’s undergone a management by a lady by the name of Sinead Boucher, and they’ve just been restructured to put more behind the paywalls. By the numbers, I’m using a share price of 85 cents. ADT for the stock isn’t that large, it’s $44,000. And that might be because it’s dual listed. It might have a bigger ADT in New Zealand, I’m not sure. But $44,000 will suit some small portfolios for our listeners but won’t suit the people who need a bigger ADT. It’s just crossed it’s 2BL, so it’s second buy line. I had a look just before we came on the show, and it’s just dropped back a bit today. So, it’s skirting with becoming a buy again for us. Way above its buy price, but it has been a bit of a Josephine for the last six months or so. So, just check the price out before you do anything as part of the research you do before buying. This company isn’t covered by analysts, so we have no consensus target, which is usually a good thing because we become our own analysts and can get a jump on the market. A couple of other interesting facts; the yield on this company is 9.69%, so that’s a very large dividend it’s paying. Whether that continues if they’re having problems raising with advertising revenue decreasing if the paywall doesn’t work, that dividend may be in doubt, but at the moment it’s high. So, it’s higher than the bank rate, so we give it a tick. But it’s one of those stocks where the yield minus the PE is positive, so it’s PE is 7.58. times, which is less than the yield that it’s paying out. So, that’s always been, for me, an indicator of deep value. So, that’s a good thing, too. Stock Doctor financial health is strong and steady, which is, in itself, interesting if the company is facing risks and decreasing sales. It seems to be doing well, at least from the financial risk management side of things, so that’s good. Again, we’re buying it cheaply, probably because of all the risks I’ve talked about. The Pr/OpCaf is just under 4.5 times, so that’s nice and juicy. IV 1, however, is 58 cents, and the stock price, as I said, was 85, so we can’t score it on that basis. There’s no IV 2, because without broker coverage we’re not getting any forecasts for this company, so we can’t score it on that one. Net equity per share is 70 cents, which is less than the share price. But if we add 30% to that, book plus 30 is 90 cents, so it’s just below its book plus 30, which is good. I couldn’t tell if it had an owner-founder, which I thought was interesting. I’m not sure what’s going on, whether Stock Doctor is a bit out of date or whatever, but Sinead Boucher who I spoke about before was the journo who led the management buyout, is now meant to be the executive chair of the company. But I’m not seeing her in Stock Doctor as any of the office holders, so I can’t tell what her shareholding is. It’s quite possible her shareholding may be through a company name, or it’s also possible given this was a management buyout that they geared up and they don’t have a large percentage stake in the company even though they bought it out. I’m not sure what’s going on there, but I have to score it as a zero for owner-founder, which is strange, because this company is now being run by the journalists who work there. Happy if you had another point to the checklist based on that, but at the moment we’re not seeing it in the numbers, so I’m not scoring it. In terms of the manual data, it’s doesn’t have consistently increasing equity, so it gets a zero. The PE, which I said before was 7.58, isn’t the lowest or the highest in the last three years, so we’re not scoring it for that one. And it’s well above its buy line, so we’re not giving it a recent upturn of that either. So, all in all, the quality score for this company is nine out of twelve, which is 75%. And because the Pr/OpCaf is 4.49, we have a QAV score of 0.17. Which is not the top of the buy list, but not near the bottom either, it’s in the middle. So, not too bad. As I said, it does come with risks. Government competitor who doesn’t really care about the declining ad revenues. They’re going to be able to keep churning out content when NZM may have to cut back on journalists, for example, is an issue, and then loss of advertising to social media is an issue. However, both in Australia and New Zealand the government have just recently brought in laws so social media have to pay news content originators for the news that they use. So, that’s going to help them a little bit. Yeah, NZM, not without its risk, but do your own research.
It’s currently a Josephine, but very close to its 2BL.
Yeah, okay. It was actually above the 2BL this morning when I first looked at it.
The Brettelators got it as previous month’s close 88 cents, current price is 87 cents. Good. Thank you, TK. Hi, Alex.
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This week: We discuss our favourite bits of Buffett’s new annual letter, and Tony does a pulled pork on Vulcan Steel (VSL).
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