Tony’s stock journal update for 2020-11-09.
Our slightly controversial interview with investor Stephen Moriarty, co-author of the book ‘Low Rates High Returns’. We discuss his approach to using CAPE ratios and Kelly Criterion to time his investing and determine how much of his portfolio he puts into the market.
Tony discusses the latest movements of “Doctor Copper” and explains why that’s important; we talk about CAPE & Kelly and TK explains his recent analysis; and we answer your questions about how we should take into account a company’s level of debt; giving a stock extra points if it is significantly below its Intrinsic Valuation; fudging the buy line for IGN; KCN being cash flow negative; ranking companies higher measured by return on shareholder capital; estimating future profits of growth companies who stop spending money on marketing; and the Health Ratios for MQG.
This week we have a 100 minute premium episode answering all of your excellent questions about subjects such as:
– banks and sentiment
– AQG / SSR merger
– Stanmore Coal acquisition offer
– Buying more when the price drops below the buy line
– Using a 5 yr/weekly chart to help fine tune your trend lines
– using the checklist to score LICs
– holding back on the retail sector
– thoughts about oil glut and prices affecting Oil/Coal companies
– During times of volatility (like GFC or dot com bust) did Tony notice a similar increase in buy/sell?
– How Tony stages his entry into a position
– How he regression test the results/model
– The buy line for OSH
– SFC sell price and recent update on their financials
– How does Tony decides what percentage of his capital to invest when he BUY stocks such as MQG
– How to analyse the TGP graph
– Why the TRS, WPL and MQG charts are different
– and Tony also introduces his new magic 3PTL maths.