This week we’re talking about Navexa portfolio issues, overconfidence in investors, Murph resigns from Berkshire, Berkshire invests in a crypto bank, Munger’s recent Q&A, BFG’s money laundering problems, HUM’s acquisition by LFS, CGF back on the buy list, S32 is Tony’s pulled pork, Ares buying into GMA, FMG is a Josephine, and then we answer your questions about Grantham’s bubble warnings, using trend lines to know when to cancel a Josephine, the iron ore sell price, buying stocks close to the sell line, using company market cap figure relative to Index Funds to determine whether a company’s share price could be at risk of a near future increase or decrease, kissing a few frogs to get a prince, holding on just for the takeover premium and FEX’s very low sell line.
Our two stock tips for the week.
It’s time for our last show of the year and my annual tradition of trying to pick some highlights from the last 12 months. This year I’m mostly focusing on the journey we went through with iron ore. Back in January 2021 we were talking about FMG and the stellar run it had been on, and why we weren’t going to rush into selling it, particularly when it had a very low sell line. But as the year progress, Tony started to talk more and more about watching the iron ore commodity price which, even though the CEO of FMG assured us would stay strong for a long time, started to slide in the second half of the year, prompting Tony to make some painful decisions….
In this episode we’re talking about MYR and LAU warnings, replacing GAP with GWR, CAA upgrade to guidance, Trading View commodity alerts, our stocks of the week (FEX, GMA), our best portfolio stocks for the week, the world’s second tallest building is a warning sign, and CGF’s business model.
In the Club edition, we also talk about selling and buying back into FMG instead of just holding it, MFG’s collapse and what their management might be thinking about right now, and more details on the story about Tony’s 20x return on MND back in the day.
In our first episode of 2021, we review our portfolio’s CY20 performance; margin loan rates; What TK does on a daily/weekly basis for managing his portfolio; relative QAV performance of large vs mid vs small cap companies; the ‘minimum’ amount of stock someone just getting started should buy; fudging ECX and VUK; whether or not we should rebalance every so often; Tony’s views on CSL; the recent drop in the prices of some gold miners; understanding the formula in column BK of the master checklist; why companies can have a quality score of >100%; and Stock Doctor problems regarding reporting of director holdings.