QAV #646 — One Trick Pony

QAV 646 Club

[00:00:00] Cameron: Wel­come to QAV episode 646, 14th of Novem­ber 2023. Tony, how did your bets go in the cup?

[00:00:20] Tony: they’re still com­ing. Actu­al­ly, I fin­ished up back­ing the win­ner as a saver, but, um, no, my tip was Vow and Declare, which… Looked like it was going to loom in the straight, but it’s a very long straight at Flem­ing­ton, so it did­n’t

[00:00:31] Tony: win. I think it ran about sixth or sev­enth.

[00:00:35] Cameron: Ninth, actu­al­ly.

[00:00:37] Tony: Okay. I’m being 

[00:00:38] Cameron: And I know that

[00:00:40] Cameron: because I’m run­ning a cup day pro­mo­tion for QAV

[00:00:43] Cameron: mem­bers. I meant to do it

[00:00:44] Cameron: last week. 

[00:00:45] Tony: Ha haha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha 

[00:00:49] Cameron: it’s a post cup day pro­mo­tion. For QAV club mem­bers who want to take advan­tage,

[00:00:55] Cameron: they can upgrade from a month­ly sub­scrip­tion to an annu­al sub­scrip­tion. [00:01:00] They’ll save an extra, I think it’s 20 per­cent off their first year, but, uh, in hon­or of your Tip last week, I said, it’s only valid for nine, the first nine peo­ple, and it only runs for nine days.

[00:01:17] Cameron: It’s Tony’s Cup Day tip pro­mo­tion. There you go. So go to the web­site and check that out. It under­per­formed like our port­fo­lios.

[00:01:27] Tony: some­one’s gonna make some mon­ey out

[00:01:28] Tony: of it. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

[00:01:32] Cameron: Speak­ing of mak­ing mon­ey, Aus­tralians are mak­ing mon­ey. Tony, accord­ing to the Finan­cial Review, Aus­tralia records biggest income decline in the devel­oped world. Econ­o­mists have urged trea­sur­er Jim Chalmers to over­haul Aus­trali­a’s tax sys­tem after new data showed house­holds suf­fered the largest fall in liv­ing stan­dards of any advanced econ­o­my over the past year.

[00:01:56] Cameron: Now, I can’t fig­ure this out because every oth­er day I read how to, [00:02:00] you know, no one can afford to buy a house because of real estate prices, includ­ing me, 

[00:02:04] Tony: Hmm hmm. 

[00:02:05] Cameron: uh, but we’re also suf­fer­ing from an income drop. So obvi­ous­ly not the peo­ple buy­ing all the real estate and push­ing the real estate prices up that are suf­fer­ing from the income drop.

[00:02:15] Tony: Yeah, I mean, the peo­ple real­ly want to hear me bang on about the RBA again, but this is again, the left hand not know­ing what the right hand’s doing. So, uh, some­where in that arti­cle, it talks about… Infla­tion and the RBA putting inter­est rates up, which of course affects peo­ple’s, um, you know, take home or net income after they pay their mort­gage.

[00:02:40] Tony: And then it talks about the 25 bil­lion the gov­ern­ment has giv­en peo­ple to ease the cost of liv­ing cri­sis. Uh, what’s that doing? It’s putting, push­ing infla­tion up. What’s the RBA doing? It’s rais­ing inter­est rates. It’s like just such a, and then what’s hap­pen­ing with the unions? They’re going, well, we can’t keep up.

[00:02:56] Tony: on our cur­rent pay with all this give us a pay rise so [00:03:00] it’s it’s a it’s a stu­pid stu­pid­ly run vicious cycle and and i i just can’t high­light­ing the fact that some­one’s got to you know under­stand the mix between mon­e­tary and fis­cal pol­i­cy and get it right there are some oth­er things going on i mean there’s um i think In the mix, there’s also the fact that there was a big cash blast dur­ing COVID and so that mon­ey’s com­ing to an end.

[00:03:26] Tony: Peo­ple put that and prob­a­bly put it into sav­ings and now they’ve spent that. So, you know, they’re not, they can’t rely on that any­more. Um, there’s immi­gra­tions. I think this was the biggest immi­gra­tion intake ever this year. Um, they’re com­pet­ing with peo­ple for rents and for house prices. So that’s push­ing things up as well.

[00:03:44] Tony: There’s a flip side to immi­gra­tion and that they’re also, um, enter­ing the work­force. And that’s been one of the prob­lems that, you know, build­ing com­pa­nies in par­tic­u­lar have been call­ing out that they can’t, you know, get enough peo­ple to work for them to be able to keep up with the [00:04:00] sup­ply of new hous­ing, which is one of the rea­sons why house prices are going up as well.

[00:04:04] Tony: So there’s a lot of things going on, but it, you know, like, come on, guys, it’s… 2023. The RBA has been say­ing for the last 40 frig­gin years, we only have one thing to use to fight infla­tion. It’s inter­est rates. And now we’ve got the trea­sur­er going, it’s a cost of liv­ing cri­sis. I’ll give you some mon­ey back.

[00:04:24] Tony: It’s, it’s just, and now we’re the worst per­form­ing coun­try in the OECD. So well done. Well done, RBA. Well done,

[00:04:34] Tony: Trea­sur­er. Grow up.

[00:04:36] Cameron: You blam­ing the Labour Par­ty? Or is it, uh, is it a mul­ti par­ty prob­lem here?

[00:04:43] Tony: Uh, you know, as I said, I think part of it was the COVID splash as well. Say, I’m not pick­ing on any one par­tic­u­lar par­ty. The Labor Par­ty are more like­ly to give, um, cost of liv­ing relief as they have, uh, to, to the low­er, uh, income brack­ets to help pay their ener­gy bills, for [00:05:00] exam­ple. So I get that, but, but it’s, it’s hav­ing an impact.

[00:05:04] Tony: It’s hav­ing an impact across the econ­o­my.

[00:05:07] Tony: I just, you know, I can imag­ine if Paul Keat­ing was here what he’d be say­ing. 

[00:05:12] Cameron: He is here, 

[00:05:12] Tony: He is here, but he’s keep­ing qui­et because it’s the Labor Par­ty, I guess. But yeah, I think it’s just a mess and some­one’s got to take charge. Uh, the oth­er point I want to make is there will not be tax, um, law changes in the first term gov­ern­ment.

[00:05:25] Tony: There nev­er is. Because, you know, you’ve got to win the sec­ond term elec­tion first, then you can do… Some­thing dif­fi­cult, but, um, if, if his­to­ry’s any guide that usu­al­ly years, there’ll be anoth­er cash splash before the next fed­er­al elec­tion. Um, which will also impact the econ­o­my and put infla­tion up and hence inter­est rates up and then the RBL put inter­est rates up, which will also impact the econ­o­my and push infla­tion up.

[00:05:52] Tony: It’s just,

[00:05:53] Tony: come on guys, get real. It’s not hard.

[00:05:58] Cameron: appar­ent­ly no one told Gough Whit­lam you [00:06:00] had to wait until your sec­ond term before you could do any dif­fi­cult things.

[00:06:03] Tony: Cor­rect. 

[00:06:07] Cameron: He sat down with a pen and a pad and just did them all in 

[00:06:11] Tony: Well, true, but they weren’t, I don’t think there was any tax reform in that. They were main­ly social jus­tice issues. Yeah. Yeah. So I’m just, I’m just, I’m in despair that, that, you know, we, the lev­el of, of, uh, peo­ple, um, run­ning the econ­o­my and, and how they don’t seem to sync. I guess they talk to each oth­er, but come on, just, you know, it’s not hard.

[00:06:36] Tony: It’s, you know, stop, stop, stop putting inter­est rates up RBA. Right. Right. Give us a break and stop with the cash splash, Mr. Trea­sur­er, and let’s just see what hap­pens. And things will set­tle down because I’m firm­ly in the camp that infla­tion is due to the COVID time peri­od when we had sup­ply chain dis­rup­tions and when we had, um, a [00:07:00] much high­er price of oil, uh, those things are, you know, they haven’t com­plete­ly set­tled down, but they’re set­tling down and the rea­son why we’re num­ber one Uh, on the cost of liv­ing decrease in the OECD is because the oth­er coun­tries have let, have, you know, we’re see­ing those, those kinds of infla­tion­ary pres­sures flow through their economies.

[00:07:19] Tony: If you, there was also a table pub­lished, I think, in today’s Fin Review, which talked about, uh, the pro­ject­ed infla­tion. Um, expect­ed in all the OECD coun­tries. And again, I think we’re pret­ty close to the high­est because the oth­er coun­tries, just like we would, if we did, if we did less than what we’re doing now, are let­ting the sup­ply chain issues flow through, flow through.

[00:07:40] Tony: And, uh, um, haven’t been, um, as gen­er­ous with the cash splash. Uh, per­haps the US has been with the Infla­tion Reduc­tion Act, but the UK has­n’t been, for exam­ple. And it’s pro­ject­ed to have a much low­er infla­tion next year. We’re pro­ject­ed to have the same. So. You know, under our cur­rent rules and oper­at­ing poli­cies, I don’t [00:08:00] expect to see inter­est rates drop­ping next, next year.

[00:08:02] Tony: They’ll be at best where they are now, and they are infla­tion­ary. It’s, it’s, they’re part of the prob­lem. We’ve got to get some­one smarter than the peo­ple who run the show now who think that rais­ing inter­est rates is going to bring down infla­tion. Um, it might, it might, but you know, it’s like say­ing, um, I’m going to sore off your legs so you don’t, so you don’t get, um, uh, infect­ed.

[00:08:28] Tony: It’s, it’s like, but the real, the whole, the whole Pol­i­cy behind rais­ing inter­est rates and con­trol­ling infla­tion with that par­tic­u­lar, um, tool, uh, is to try and keep us out of a reces­sion. But Jesus, if the five years we, you know, we have to bear that for is worse than the reces­sion, why are we doing it?

[00:08:49] Tony: Why are we doing it when our liv­ing stan­dards are going down 5%? Why do we keep doing

[00:08:54] Tony: this?

[00:08:54] Cameron: So, what are the reserve banks or the cen­tral banks in

[00:08:58] Cameron: oth­er coun­tries doing

[00:08:59] Cameron: [00:09:00] dif­fer­ent­ly? Like if I look at this chart of real house­hold gross dis­pos­able income per capi­ta, Aus­tralia is at the bot­tom, it’s dropped 5. 1 per­cent over the last 12 months to June 2023 this is. The Unit­ed States is up 3. 5 per­cent over the same peri­od, the Unit­ed King­dom is up 2.

[00:09:20] Cameron: 2%, France is up 1. 6%. Any idea what they’re doing? Their cen­tral banks are doing dif­fer­ent­ly? Because I know the U. S. has been putting up inter­est rates as well. What’s, what’s, why is their income going up at the same time when ours isn’t?

[00:09:36] Tony: I think it’s prob­a­bly going to be a case by case. So in the US, for exam­ple, if I look at that case, uh, their, their local oil indus­tries ratch­et­ing up to, to, you know, ful­ly, uh, ful­ly being engaged again. So their shale oil indus­tries keep­ing the price of oil low­er in the US. Um, most US peo­ple, I think, if not all US home­own­ers are on a fixed [00:10:00] rate mort­gage.

[00:10:00] Tony: So when the cen­tral bank puts up inter­est rates in the US, it has a much slow­er. and low­er impact on the peo­ple who own real estate than it does here because we’re all unfixed. And that’s anoth­er issue for Aus­tralia too. Um, dur­ing COVID a lot of peo­ple, I think it was like 50 or 60 per­cent of mort­gage hold­ers, locked in rates at 2 per­cent and they’re all com­ing off that now.

[00:10:23] Tony: So that’s anoth­er rea­son why, um, The high­er inter­est rates are bit­ing hard on them. And you know, that’s anoth­er good, good indi­ca­tion. Is the RBA tak­ing that into account? If every, if, if like 60%, what­ev­er the num­ber is, if half the peo­ple who have mort­gages this year are sud­den­ly pay­ing three times the inter­est rate they were pay­ing last year, isn’t that enough of an inter­est rate rise to slow the econ­o­my?

[00:10:45] Tony: Why are you putting inter­est rates up as well? So, you know, um, I would think in places like the UK and France, they haven’t giv­en as much back in the way of, um, relief to, to the [00:11:00] gen­er­al pop­u­la­tion, I don’t know that for a fact, but I’m guess­ing that’s the case, um, and there­fore it’s not this left hand, right hand argu­ment where the cen­tral banks Putting up inter­est rates to slow the econ­o­my and the gov­ern­men­t’s giv­ing hand­outs to peo­ple to pay for the cost of liv­ing and one’s negat­ing the oth­er.

[00:11:16] Tony: Um, so yeah, I think it’s, I think it’s case by case. We had a lot of, a lot of mon­ey giv­en out dur­ing COVID. I think some of that’s been banked and it’s now being spent. So peo­ple are com­ing off that. We have the fixed, the fixed rate that’s called the fixed rate cliff. I don’t think it’s as bad as that, but peo­ple are pay­ing a lot more under vari­able rates for their mort­gages.

[00:11:36] Tony: Um, And, uh, yeah, there’s been 25 bil­lion, accord­ing to the Fin Review, giv­en away to peo­ple to ease their cost of liv­ing

[00:11:45] Tony: bur­dens, which is kind of negat­ing what the RBA is doing by rais­ing inter­est

[00:11:48] Tony: rates.

[00:11:49] Cameron: All right, well mov­ing right along. I saw anoth­er inter­est­ing chart this week. This is a mar­ket index. I was look­ing for some­thing about [00:12:00] his­tor­i­cal ASX returns. Accord­ing to this study, 122 years of his­tor­i­cal returns, it says since 1900, the Aus­tralian share mark­ers returned an aver­age of 13. 2 per­cent per annum.

[00:12:15] Cameron: I always thought it was like 

[00:12:16] Tony: Yeah. Yeah. That’s my under­stand­ing as well. I had to look at the link you sent me and I can save drop­ping it all into a spread­sheet and doing a cal­cu­la­tion myself, which I haven’t done. I could­n’t see any­thing wrong with it, but it looks a bit high to

[00:12:31] Tony: me.

[00:12:32] Cameron: Hmm, okay, that’s it.

[00:12:35] Tony: Yeah, I can’t say any­thing more. I’ve always 

[00:12:38] Cameron: No more com­men­tary on 

[00:12:38] Tony: years to be 10 per­cent in the share mar­ket. Yeah, 

[00:12:42] Cameron: they’re the num­bers

[00:12:42] Cameron: that I always hear quot­ed, 13. 2%. So if, if the his­tor­i­cal aver­age is 13. 2%, does that mean if we want to do dou­ble mar­ket, we have to do 26%?

[00:12:52] Tony: Yeah, it does. Which I haven’t.

[00:12:56] Tony: So yeah, we might do less than that [00:13:00] even­tu­al­ly.

[00:13:01] Cameron: All right, mov­ing along. Uh, Iron ore prices, Tony. Chi­na, Chi­na’s say­ing that iron ore’s too expen­sive. This is in the Finan­cial Review dur­ing the week. Iron ore prices slipped on Wednes­day after the world’s top steel­mak­er said prices had reached unrea­son­able lev­els amid diverg­ing views among ana­lysts on the out­look for the key steel­mak­ing ingre­di­ent.

[00:13:26] Cameron: I think this was, uh, Guobin. who is the pres­i­dent of Chi­na Min­er­als Resources Group said that they were squeez­ing mar­gins at steel­mak­ers. Uh, it goes on in the arti­cle to say that there are wide­spread expec­ta­tion among bro­kers for the prices to remain close to U. S. 100 a ton after falling from highs touched in Jan­u­ary.

[00:13:52] Cameron: I checked this after I read this arti­cle and when our Uh, buy list came out yes­ter­day. Iron ore is still a buy [00:14:00] for us, but obvi­ous­ly we, we go by the end of the month price, not by the dai­ly prices. Uh, there was a bit of a decline appar­ent­ly on a dai­ly basis of iron ore. Got any thoughts on this one?

[00:14:15] Tony: Um, I try not to pick com­modi­ties. It’s, uh, it’s, it’s, you know, I had a hair­cut today. If I asked the bar­ber if I paid too much, they’d say no. But if you asked me, I’d say yes. I was ask­ing a steel­mak­er whether iron ore is too high. It’s the same sort of thing, isn’t it? Then they’re going to say, no, it’s great.

[00:14:32] Tony: You’re going to say, no, it’s too high. So there’s a bit of that going on. Um, yeah, I mean, you know, the iron ore got up to 220 a ton. 18 months ago or two years ago when we were own­ing stocks like FMG. So, uh, and gen­er­al­ly, um, 100 prob­a­bly is, is close to aver­age, I sup­pose. So that, that makes sense. But no, I don’t have any­thing, any par­tic­u­lar light to shed on this.

[00:14:59] Tony: [00:15:00] Um, I sus­pect maybe there might be some stim­u­lus in Chi­na. Um, If the econ­o­my’s not doing well, uh, which usu­al­ly flows through into the iron ore price and, and

[00:15:09] Tony: the steel price because con­struc­tion gets a boost, but I don’t know on this par­tic­u­lar occa­sion, haven’t paid atten­tion to it. 

[00:15:16] Cameron: I think the more impor­tant ques­tion we all want to know is, what do you pay for a hair­cut?

[00:15:19] Cameron: And where do you get your hair cut? 

[00:15:23] Tony: What would you want to know that for? 

[00:15:26] Cameron: Well, I always imag­ine like, you know, rich guys, I remem­ber Gor­don Gekko in

[00:15:30] Cameron: Wall Street had a bar­ber come to him and he’s like, buy, sell, buy, sell on his phone and the guy’s sit­ting there trim­ming his hair while he’s doing it.

[00:15:39] Cameron: Do you have some­one come to you and cut your hair

[00:15:42] Tony: prob­a­bly cheap­er. Cost me a hun­dred bucks for a hair­cut today. 

[00:15:46] Cameron: bucks? Oh

[00:15:48] Cameron: my God, what are they cut­ting her with? Like 

[00:15:51] Tony: Yeah.

[00:15:52] Tony: No, I think it’s gold in itself.

[00:15:54] Tony: It’s, you know.

[00:15:55] Cameron: That’s, you could see like a King’s Cross [00:16:00] hair­dress­er. Where do you go to get your hair 

[00:16:01] Tony: Yeah, just down the road in Bayswa­ter Road. Near 

[00:16:04] Cameron: so that you’re pay­ing for the real estate? Is that what you’re pay­ing for?

[00:16:07] Tony: Yep. I mean, I get a nice wash as well.

[00:16:10] Cameron: Oh, that’s

[00:16:11] Tony: Yeah.

[00:16:13] Cameron: Let’s not go any fur­ther with that line of ques­tion­ing. It’s mak­ing you uncom­fort­able. Um, Uh, well this is, I like this one. I’ve read a cou­ple of sto­ries about HESTA, the Super­fund, over the last cou­ple of days, but this was one in Finan­cial Newswire. HESTA hit with ASIC false and mis­lead­ing charges.

[00:16:31] Cameron: Now we’re always hav­ing a bit of a laugh at the super­an­nu­a­tion funds and their per­for­mance, but I think the one I read this morn­ing was about peo­ple pulling their mon­ey out of so called, You know, uh, envi­ron­men­tal­ly sus­tain­able funds because there’s a lot of claims of green­wash­ing going on and peo­ple are say­ing, yeah, A, their per­for­mance sucks and B, we don’t think they’re real­ly invest­ing in sus­tain­able stuff like they tell us they are.

[00:16:58] Cameron: But this… This [00:17:00] sto­ry says major health focused indus­try super­an­nu­a­tion fund, HESTA, has paid 48, 600 after being faced with Aus­tralian Secu­ri­ties and Invest­ment Com­mis­sion action over alleged­ly false and mis­lead­ing state­ments in mar­ket­ing mate­ri­als. The reg­u­la­tor said HESTA paid 48, 600 to com­ply with three infringe­ment notices.

[00:17:22] Cameron: Issued by ASIC regard­ing alleged false or mis­lead­ing state­ments about its bal­anced growth super­an­nu­a­tion invest­ment option, the state­ments ref­er­enced 10 year per­for­mance fig­ures of the bal­anced growth option, but did not note the peri­od the fig­ures relat­ed to. ASIC said it alleges these state­ments may have mis­led con­sumers into believ­ing the per­for­mance fig­ures used were up to the present day when the 10 year peri­od used by HESTA to cal­cu­late those fig­ures had end­ed between 5 and 14 months [00:18:00] pri­or to pub­li­ca­tion.

[00:18:01] Cameron: Oh, well, they’re like, Oh, we just like our web devel­op­ers slow. Web devel­op­ers just got a lot on his plate. Did­n’t have time to update the web­site. 

[00:18:10] Tony: enough, I think, I think that prob­a­bly

[00:18:12] Tony: is the case that, um, they run old ads or rerun old ads.

[00:18:17] Cameron: could be, um, and their print­ed

[00:18:19] Cameron: mate­ri­als prob­a­bly don’t get refreshed that often, but I, I, I had to laugh at 48, 600 for three infringe­ments. 

[00:18:28] Tony: And how much mon­ey have they made in

[00:18:30] Tony: 14 months by adver­tis­ing false­ly com­pared to the 46, 000? Yeah,

[00:18:35] Cameron: I think, like that’s the def­i­n­i­tion of a, uh, slap on the wrist and a

[00:18:39] Cameron: stern look, isn’t 

[00:18:40] Tony: slap on the wrist with a wet let­tuce is what it real­ly 

[00:18:42] Cameron: Yeah,

[00:18:43] Tony: Yeah, well, hope­ful­ly it, you know, makes every­one else sit up and

[00:18:47] Tony: pay atten­tion now before they rerun old ads.

[00:18:50] Cameron: I think it would make every­one else go,

[00:18:52] Tony: Yeah,

[00:18:52] Cameron: That’s it? Shit, what are we pay­ing our web devel­op­er per minute to update the web­site? Eh, it’s not

[00:18:58] Cameron: even, not even [00:19:00] 

[00:19:00] Tony: yeah, true. Good point. 

[00:19:01] Cameron: Char­lie Munger, Tony, says that we need to start buy­ing tech stocks, like Apple and Alpha­bet, or risk being left behind.

[00:19:11] Tony: that’s our solu­tion. Gosh, I feel left behind at the moment in the share mar­ket. Just got to buy 

[00:19:17] Cameron: I was like, what?

[00:19:18] Cameron: Bloody hell, Char­lie, we’ve been lis­ten­ing to you say,

[00:19:22] Cameron: not buy these

[00:19:23] Cameron: things, and now you’re say­ing we’re gonna get left behind, you know, when you’re 99, I guess you can just start mak­ing shit up. Um… It’s, it’s the Mag­nif­i­cent Sev­ens world and we’re all just liv­ing in it, Char­lie Munger says.

[00:19:36] Cameron: A hand­ful of most­ly tech­nol­o­gy com­pa­nies have grown so dom­i­nant and out­per­formed the stock mar­ket to such a great extent in recent years that investors who don’t own any of them risk being left behind, War­ren Buf­fet­t’s busi­ness part­ner has said in two recent inter­views. What every­body has learned is that every­body needs some sig­nif­i­cant par­tic­i­pa­tion in the com­pa­nies that do [00:20:00] bet­ter than every­body else.

[00:20:01] Cameron: Munger told the Acquired Pod­cast, you need two or three of them at least. So, uh, I don’t know, Tony, what does that mean for us?

[00:20:13] Tony: well, it’s a, it’s a, yeah, inter­est­ing dilem­ma, isn’t it? And it’s, it flows into the theme that we’ve seen. I’ve seen graphs in the last cou­ple of months, which says that, uh, you know, the Aus­tralian index has been flat for many years as we’ve spo­ken about. And the US index, if you take out those big FANG stocks or what­ev­er they’re called now has been pret­ty much flat.

[00:20:35] Tony: So all the growth has come from those. Tech stocks. The ques­tion is, will it con­tin­ue to come from those tech stocks? And, and I’d rather punch myself in the face than pay 30 times earn­ings for Apple, notwith­stand­ing, Char­lie’s a much smarter investor than I am, and, um, and he makes a good point. Um, And there, I know that Buf­fett is pre­pared to pay up for qual­i­ty, and Char­lie made [00:21:00] the point some­where in that arti­cle that, you know, that, uh, that Berk­shire bought Apple when it did in 2017 or 18, and it’s up three times since then, so, good on them, but, uh, it, yeah.

[00:21:14] Tony: And I’ve also heard Char­lie talk about, um, Apple as still being a val­ue invest­ment because he thinks the future earn­ings are going to dwarf the cur­rent earn­ings, and so even at 30 times P. E. it’s worth buy­ing, but, um, it’s a whole dif­fer­ent mind­set, I think, and… Yeah, go ahead and do it if you want, um, but it’s also look­ing at the, look­ing at some­thing which has done

[00:21:37] Tony: Well, for the last Sev­en years or some­thing and say­ing, will it con­tin­ue to do well?

[00:21:41] Tony: And I’m

[00:21:42] Tony: not so sure.

[00:21:44] Cameron: Well, the Mag­nif­i­cent Sev­en appar­ent­ly are Apple, Microsoft, Alpha­bet, Ama­zon, Meta, Tes­la, and Nvidia. 

[00:21:53] Tony: So if you go through all of those, um, Alpha­bet seems to have, well, I’m going to [00:22:00] say Alpha­bet does­n’t seem to have a nat­ur­al com­peti­tor, but I’m also going to con­tra­dict myself because if some­one gets a good AI. Search engine going then an alpha­bet does­n’t and that can come under threat Apple I mean, it seems it like I like Apple I’ve all my stuff is Apple and I pay up for it But at some stage peo­ple are gonna stop pay­ing more for the newest iPhone and just go, you know What I’m gonna I’m gonna buy a cheap­er Google ver­sion or what­ev­er that that day will come at some stage Microsoft I remem­ber 10 years ago, or less than that, when I was in Cana­da, um, Microsoft was the, was being tout­ed as the worst stock to buy, um, on the, you know, the Dow, because, you know, it just had a bad run, and it’s kind of got its act togeth­er.

[00:22:48] Tony: Um, what else, Tes­la? I seri­ous­ly think Tes­la could face some kind of threat, um, when all of the oth­er man­u­fac­tur­ers get decent elec­tron­ic [00:23:00] vehi­cles on the mar­ket, and when Chi­na starts pro­duc­ing them cheap­ly, so in Japan I guess too, so I, you know, I think Tes­la’s a won­der­ful cars. But again, I’m not going to pay nose­bleeds earn­ings for it.

[00:23:13] Tony: Um, yeah, so I think each of those stocks, um, uh, have been great stocks to have invest­ed in. And if I had a TARDIS, I would go back and, and buy them. But, um, they’re just so expen­sive now, I can’t. When­ev­er things go wrong in the econ­o­my, when­ev­er things go wrong with them or their indus­try, they fall. They’re high­ly volatile.

[00:23:35] Tony: They fall quite sharply. So I’m not going to say Char­lie’s wrong. He’s a smart guy. If you want to buy Apple, buy Apple.

[00:23:42] Tony: I just can’t bring myself to do it. But

[00:23:46] Cameron: these sev­en com­pa­nies have in com­mon is that they’re all… Very heav­i­ly invest­ed in AI. That’s the thing that’s, you know, I think dri­ving pre­dom­i­nant­ly, cer­tain­ly [00:24:00] Microsoft­’s share price in the last year in par­tic­u­lar, it’s 50 per­cent stake or 49 per stake, what­ev­er it has in open AI.

[00:24:10] Cameron: Um, Google obvi­ous­ly has a big invest­ment in AI, so does Meta, so does Tes­la now, Elon just launched his AI Grok last week for lim­it­ed, uh, audi­ences. NVIDI­A’s pro­duc­ing the A100s and the H100s that, uh, dri­ving AI, the chipsets. Apple, you know, their, their play isn’t obvi­ous yet, but every­one assumes that they’re going to be a big part of writ­ing this into the future, if not with their own major AI engine that at least the devices that a lot of the AIs are run­ning on.

[00:24:48] Cameron: Um, Ama­zon as well, you know, AWS, the engine, the plat­form that a lot of these things are host­ed on. So it’s the big AI plays and, um, yeah, right. I [00:25:00] mean, Bill Gates came out and said recent­ly, and I’ve heard oth­er peo­ple like Mark Andresen say this over the last few months, is that when, when the AI rev­o­lu­tion hits in the, like main­stream in the next year or two, no one’s ever going to go to Google again.

[00:25:18] Cameron: He said, no, Bill Gates said last week, no one’s ever going to Google again. Nev­er, no one’s ever going to Ama­zon again. Because you’ll just say to your AI assis­tant, book me a flight. Buy me a book, do this, what­ev­er, and it’ll go out and find you the best deal, the best price, and book it for you, and orga­nize it for you.

[00:25:38] Cameron: But all these com­pa­nies, Ama­zon and Google, etc., have got their own AI plays, which they fig­ure will pick up the slack for the lost rev­enue and those sorts of things. But, um, yeah, we don’t have any major AI plays. I mean, Can­va’s adding AI to their stuff, and I’m sure Atlass­ian will have an AI com­po­nent to what they do, but we don’t have any major.

[00:25:58] Cameron: AI pure [00:26:00] plays in Aus­tralia to get involved in.

[00:26:02] Tony: again, Cam, I know it’s your thing, but how do I pre­dict the cash flows going for­ward? How do I dis­count them

[00:26:08] Tony: back? NVIDIA, I just looked up now, is trad­ing on a PE of 116 times.

[00:26:15] Cameron: Yeah, well I said 

[00:26:16] Tony: They’re priced for per­fec­tion and we don’t even know if AI is going to make a buck

[00:26:19] Tony: of income for them yet.

[00:26:22] Cameron: I was, um,

[00:26:24] Tony: Haven’t we seen this before? 

[00:26:26] Cameron: Yeah. Oh, I mean, I’m talk­ing to a cou­ple of peo­ple this week about Microsoft­’s, I think Samati­no

[00:26:31] Cameron: on Futur­is­tic, we were talk­ing about this. And I was like, I’m not even con­fi­dent that Ope­nAI won’t end up the Netscape of 

[00:26:40] Tony: Yeah, absolute­ly. 

[00:26:42] Cameron: You know, it’s got a mas­sive ear­ly lead. It’s dom­i­nat­ing every­thing right now, but I’ve seen this before.

[00:26:48] Tony: Mmm. 

[00:26:50] Cameron: I, I saw it with Netscape. I, you know, and I think the biggest death threat to open AI is that Microsoft buys all of it and takes it [00:27:00] inside and inter­nal­izes it, because that’s nev­er a good thing. I mean, Satya Nadel­la, the CEO of Microsoft seems to be doing a good job with the com­pa­ny. Bet­ter than Ballmer did, but, um, you know, these big orga­ni­za­tions and their polit­i­cal fief­doms and every­thing that goes on tend to swal­low these things up and suck the juice out of them for a while.

[00:27:23] Cameron: Chi­na’s Aliba­ba just upgrad­ed their lat­est AI last week, um, you know, Chi­na’s AI plays have not real­ly hit the main­stream West­ern atten­tion yet, but I expect big things to come out of Chi­na. Build­ing their own chipsets to rival NVIDIA as well. I mean, once that hits, the impact that’ll have on Ope­nAI and Google’s BARD gets up to speed and Meta’s plays get up to speed, Lamb­da, et cetera.

[00:27:51] Cameron: So yeah, look at the great Tes­la’s play. There’s going to be a, you know, I don’t think Ope­nAI has got a moat is actu­al­ly what I said. That’s worth much, you know,

[00:27:59] Tony: Well, [00:28:00] and that’s the, but that’s also the way that these things devel­op, Cameron. You’ve named half a dozen com­pa­nies there with their own ver­sion of AI. They can’t all suc­ceed. I mean, Ama­zon sells, you know, sold books and, and Barnes Noble sold books and then even­tu­al­ly Ama­zon sold books and that was it.

[00:28:16] Tony: Yeah. Microsoft had a search engine, there were three or four search engines, but now there’s only Google. These, these devel­op­ments tend to land with, into the future with one or two com­pa­nies that go for­ward. So, um, bet­ting on them all may not be the right thing to do. And pick­ing which ones it’s going to be is also very hard to do.

[00:28:36] Tony: So pay­ing a pre­mi­um, and I’m not just talk­ing a pre­mi­um, 116 times earn­ing, earn­ings for a chip mak­er. Um, Just, again, it Just, sounds like the tech bub­ble all over again,

[00:28:49] Tony: what we were see­ing back then in 2000. 

[00:28:53] Cameron: the big dif­fer­ence is Char­lie and War­ren have always told us to steer clear of them. And now they’re dou­bling down on it and say­ing, you’re an idiot if you [00:29:00] don’t get two or three of them.

[00:29:02] Tony: Yeah. it’s strange, isn’t it? And I, and I don’t think Char­lie, I’m halfway through the pod­cast that inter­viewed Char­lie, um, In that inter­view, he talks about Apple. He does­n’t, and he comes at it from a busi­ness point of view, rather than an AI point of view. And he, you know, he talks about their, um, their sales, their abil­i­ty to rise, raise prices with each, you know, new, new issue, the prof­it mar­gin they have, all those kinds of tra­di­tion­al sort of indus­tri­al type com­pa­ny, com­pa­ny met­rics that they look at.

[00:29:31] Tony: He’s not com­ing at it from

[00:29:33] Tony: any sort of, um, world beat­ing tech

[00:29:37] Tony: point, point of view with Apple.

[00:29:40] Cameron: Yeah, well Apple does­n’t have a pure AI play

[00:29:42] Tony: Mm hmm. 

[00:29:43] Cameron: so you could­n’t any­way. Yeah, it’s inter­est­ing. Well, I was hop­ing you would be able to put my mind at rest there Tony, but um, 

[00:29:51] Tony: Look, no, 

[00:29:51] Cameron: left me want­i­ng.

[00:29:52] Tony: um, and I’ve heard oth­er inter­views with Char­lie and War­ren and they’ve talked about how they missed the boat on some of these com­pa­nies and, and Char­lie was [00:30:00] say­ing that we should have bought Alpha­bet years ago because they can man­u­fac­ture an ad for a cent and they can charge a dol­lar when it appears.

[00:30:07] Tony: So that’s the kind of busi­ness that they like. So I get why he’s doing it. Um, I guess, you know, to… To take that kind of argu­ment fur­ther, it’s, it’s the kind of stock that they’d prob­a­bly buy in a down­turn when there was a reces­sion going on and there was blood on the streets. You know, that’s the kind of time you’d want to buy those com­pa­nies, but just pay­ing these kind of nose­bleed prices for them,

[00:30:32] Tony: I don’t think that’s safe.

[00:30:33] Cameron: Well, speak­ing of, uh, not play­ing it safe, I won’t apol­o­gize for being aggres­sive, ANZ boss stares down mort­gage crit­ics. ANZ boss Shane Elliott insists he’s still gen­er­at­ing good returns from mort­gages despite aggres­sive pric­ing that has shak­en up the mar­ket. So Shane Elliott was wax­ing lyri­cal yes­ter­day, um, [00:31:00] every­one, all the oth­er banks were com­plain­ing about him appar­ent­ly, but the key thing from our per­spec­tive is their full year cash prof­it was up 14 per­cent of their total.

[00:31:09] Cameron: To 7. 4 bil­lion, but was 1. 3 per­cent below mar­ket con­sen­sus and the share price dropped.

[00:31:18] Tony: Yeah. And I bought them last week because they come onto the buy list for a day or 

[00:31:22] Cameron: Oh, did you? Yeah. 

[00:31:24] Tony: And I’m not, I’m not wor­ried. What’s hap­pen­ing with ANZ, I think, this is my com­men­tary, but may not be the real case, uh, is that they still des­per­ate­ly want to buy the bank out of, um, Sun­corp in Queens­land, which has been blocked by the reg­u­la­tor for less­en­ing com­pe­ti­tion.

[00:31:45] Tony: And so ANZ have been dri­ving prices down, um, in the home loan mar­ket try­ing to win. Excuse me, try­ing to win shares so they can say to the reg­u­la­tor, Hey, it’s good for com­pe­ti­tion. We’re, you know, we’re very com­pet­i­tive. Um, so I think that’s what’s [00:32:00] going on. It’s, it’s a, it’s a play for the reg­u­la­tor or play for the courts who are now going to decide on appeal, whether that merg­er can go through.

[00:32:08] Tony: Shane Elliott says the rea­son why they’ve been able to be aggres­sive on mort­gages is because ANZ, as opposed to the oth­er big three majors, has, um, a large, large ish, um, net­work in Asia, foot­print in Asia. And so. He’s say­ing that that busi­ness is now more prof­itable than the Aus­tralian busi­ness and he can use the sur­plus cash to dis­count on mort­gages and that may be the case.

[00:32:31] Tony: Um, it’ll be the first damn time in his­to­ry that ANZ’s ever said the Asian busi­ness is going well. Uh, but any­way, hope­ful­ly it is

[00:32:39] Tony: because I’m a share­hold­er now. 

[00:32:40] Cameron: Yeah, the share price did­n’t recov­er real­ly

[00:32:43] Cameron: after that fall a

[00:32:43] Cameron: cou­ple of days ago either.

[00:32:45] Tony: No, and I think what’s hap­pened as well is all, all, so the three… Major banks have done their annu­al results pre­sen­ta­tions over the last cou­ple of weeks and Com­Bank I think came out today with its quar­ter­ly update. They report on a dif­fer­ent time cycle [00:33:00] and uh, all of them are say­ing that The last year has been real­ly good for bank­ing with ris­ing inter­est rates, but we don’t see it going for­ward as good because of all the things we talked about before, there’s cost of liv­ing, pres­sures on peo­ple, and even though inter­est rates are high, deposit rates are also going up, so there’s pres­sure on their mar­gins, and I think that’s what’s also being absorbed

[00:33:26] Tony: by the invest­ing com­mu­ni­ty is what’s it going to look like in a year’s time for these banks. 

[00:33:30] Cameron: Appar­ent­ly there’s a, I’m not sure who the PR firm is, but there’s a PR firm out there that’s get­ting a lot of work in the Aus­tralian cor­po­rate space telling CEOs to use the term one trick pony. This week, because Shane Elliott said they’re not a one trick pony. Then I read this morn­ing that the CEO of Elders said that they’re not a one trick pony.

[00:33:53] Cameron: Um, Mod­er­na also recent­ly said that they’re not a one trick pony. Um, [00:34:00] appar­ent­ly say­ing I’m not a one trick pony is the way to express your­self as a CEO, uh, at the moment.

[00:34:07] Tony: as an investor, I just want a one trick pony. If you’re doing,

[00:34:10] Tony: if you’ve got two ponies you should be de merg­ing and we can decide which pony you want to invest in. It’s like either a.

[00:34:17] Cameron: How many ponies do you actu­al­ly own though, Tony? 

[00:34:21] Tony: I don’t want to buy a cir­cus when I’m

[00:34:22] Tony: invest­ing.

[00:34:23] Cameron: Um, he was talk­ing about the fact that, um, their prof­its, I think their retail bank prof­its, uh, weren’t as good. But, um, where’s 

[00:34:36] Tony: And he’s say­ing that they’ve got more income com­ing in from Asia, which is help­ing and all that

[00:34:39] Tony: kind of stuff. Yeah. No, I get it.

[00:34:41] Cameron: Yeah, yeah, yeah. He said, we’ve just had the two best halves in our com­pa­ny’s his­to­ry, but it just so hap­pens that the first half was even bet­ter than the sec­ond. But on its own, the sec­ond half is a real­ly out­stand­ing result. We’re not a one trick pony. We’re not just an Aus­tralian retail busi­ness, etc, [00:35:00] etc.

[00:35:00] Cameron: Any­way, one trick pony. I think that’ll be the title of this 

[00:35:03] Tony: Right. 

[00:35:04] Cameron: Um, 

[00:35:06] Tony: It is fun­ny though. I agree with you. It’s fun­ny how, how peo­ple use the same terms. It’s like some­one puts out a press

[00:35:12] Tony: release and it must just get cir­cu­lat­ed for sure.

[00:35:14] Cameron: Yeah, it’s almost like, um, I don’t know if you ever saw this, but the Dai­ly Show used to do a good job of this, they’d take Fox com­men­ta­tors, peo­ple on Fox News, and you’d just see them using the same phras­es over and over again, like 10 dif­fer­ent Fox hosts using the same talk­ing points, with exact­ly the same phras­es, dri­ving it home and home and home.

[00:35:39] Cameron: Yes, I did a thing about that on Tik­Tok last week, you know, I keep hear­ing the term, this, you know, these attacks are not jus­ti­fied. Hamas’s attack on Israel is not jus­ti­fied, or Rus­si­a’s inva­sion of Ukraine was not jus­ti­fied. Keep hear­ing the media say these things are not jus­ti­fied, and I’m like, well, [00:36:00] obvi­ous­ly they are jus­ti­fied to the peo­ple who are doing them.

[00:36:04] Cameron: They think it’s jus­ti­fied and it’s jus­ti­fi­able, it’s rea­son­able, it’s accept­able. So I blan­ket say­ing that they’re not jus­ti­fied. It’s non­sense. Maybe you don’t think you could, you can jus­ti­fy it, but that’s because we’re on the oth­er side of the bat­tle. You nev­er, you nev­er get a, you know, the vic­tim of some­thing is, or the ally of a vic­tim of some­thing is nev­er going to agree to the jus­ti­fi­ca­tion of the attack in the first place.

[00:36:28] Cameron: But to just say it’s not jus­ti­fied is a non­sense state­ment. Bet­ter off ask­ing why do, why does the oth­er side think it’s jus­ti­fied? What is their jus­ti­fi­ca­tion for it? Then we might be able to have some dia­logue and get some­where.

[00:36:41] Tony: Well, that’s right. If it’s, If

[00:36:42] Tony: they’ve done some­thing, which is an extreme, why, why would they forced into doing an extreme act? 

[00:36:46] Cameron: Well, because they’re all crazy, Tony. They’re crazy, mad­men. 

[00:36:51] Tony: Cause they’re all Mus­lims or com­mu­nists. 

[00:36:54] Cameron: yeah, or Putin’s 

[00:36:56] Tony: know, when I was 

[00:36:56] Cameron: He’s just mad. 

[00:36:57] Tony: I was a kid, I’d nev­er cut in the ice with mom when I go and [00:37:00] say, yeah, but what she did was­n’t fair. What my sis­ter did was­n’t fair. It’s

[00:37:04] Tony: like, so life’s not fair. Can’t say

[00:37:08] Cameron: I thought you were going to say when you called your mum a Mus­lim. Well, yeah, you’re a Mus­lim.

[00:37:14] Cameron: Hey, um,

[00:37:14] Tony: know what a Mus­lim was when I was a kid. 

[00:37:17] Cameron: no, me nei­ther, still don’t. Um, I got two ques­tions for you, Tony,

[00:37:21] Cameron: that came up for me in buy­ing stuff the oth­er, uh, last cou­ple of days. The first one, I went to buy SXL, South­ern Cross Media Group, for light yes­ter­day, but when I went to buy it, uh, take, I noticed a take, I learned to check the news, the, the, the announce­ments before I bought it.

[00:37:41] Cameron: Um, a takeover offer is being con­sid­ered. There’s been two takeover offers, I think, of South­ern Cross Media recent­ly. But when I went to buy it yes­ter­day morn­ing, the share price had already jumped. About 5 per­cent in the morn­ing. And then it crashed a lit­tle bit, came back a bit. Um, and then [00:38:00] it jumped up again.

[00:38:01] Cameron: So by the time I got to it, like late morn­ing, it had jumped from, I don’t know, like 92 cents to 97 cents. And I was like, like it could keep going up. It could go down. What’s going on. I end­ed up get­ting spooked and I did­n’t buy it. It was our, our analy­sis price when Alex did it on the week­end was 92 and a half cents.

[00:38:26] Cameron: It was already like 97 cents by the time I got to it, 97, 98. And I was like, I don’t know, part of me want­ed to buy it think­ing if there’s a lit­tle bit of, you know, horse trad­ing going on here, it might go up, but. Any­way, I did­n’t, and I want­ed to ask you what you would do in a sit­u­a­tion like that, if you know, there’s a cou­ple of com­pet­ing offers, shit, it’s up to a dol­lar, dol­lar and two today.

[00:38:53] Cameron: So there you go. I should have bought it, but 

[00:38:55] Tony: Well, maybe. I’m not a fan of buy­ing into takeover sit­u­a­tions. [00:39:00] If, if we’d already owned it and there’s a takeover, it’s a bit dif­fer­ent. You know, we get a free ride. But, um, yeah, the, the, There’s prob­a­bly, there’s often more down­side risk than upside risk. The upside risk is that some­one lobs anoth­er bid or they up their cur­rent bid, but the share price is gen­er­al­ly trad­ing at around the takeover offers.

[00:39:20] Tony: So you’re hop­ing that some­body else will enter the par­ty and make anoth­er bid or that some­one cur­rent­ly there will be forced to put the price up. Um, but you’re kind of mov­ing away from

[00:39:31] Tony: fun­da­men­tals when you’re try­ing to val­ue those com­pa­nies. And the risk is that peo­ple walk away and the price drops.

[00:39:36] Tony: So. 

[00:39:37] Cameron: Well, both of these offers were non bind­ing offers too. So they were like suck it and see offers. And yeah, I was like, Oh, I could get into the paper. We’ll get into the what­ev­er you call it, whether you’re open­ing the kimono a lit­tle 

[00:39:52] Tony: Oh, due dili­gence. 

[00:39:53] Cameron: num­bers that bit. Yes. That’s a bit, I like my term bet­ter. Um, and they go, [00:40:00] Oh shit.

[00:40:01] Cameron: Yeah, we don’t like this at all. Yeah. And then it col­lapsed, but you make a good point. Like get­ting sucked into that is, is fore­cast­ing real­ly, isn’t it? You’re get­ting sucked into the hype of this could go to the moon.

[00:40:12] Tony: You’re right, Doug. I mean, these peo­ple are

[00:40:15] Tony: spend­ing lots of mon­ey on these com­pa­nies. They’re going to try and buy it for as lit­tle, as lit­tle as they can. 

[00:40:20] Cameron: Yeah. 

[00:40:20] Tony: It can’t, it can get into a bid­ding war for sure. And, and you’re right. There’s gen­er­al­ly a play­book for these things. The first step is the young.

[00:40:27] Tony: Uncon­di­tion­al is the con­di­tion­al bid, the non bind­ing bid. Then they go uncon­di­tion­al and then they go final and then even­tu­al­ly, although due dili­gence along the way at some stage, and even­tu­al­ly the board will make a rec­om­men­da­tion. So there are some peo­ple who are skilled at Play­ing that, and they’re prob­a­bly buy­ing this com­pa­ny now, because there has­n’t been a board rec­om­men­da­tion yet.

[00:40:48] Tony: But there is always the risk that peo­ple go away, and the price drops. And it can drop back to what it was before this all

[00:40:56] Tony: start­ed, which is prob­a­bly a fair way below [00:41:00] the cur­rent 1, 2 share price. 

[00:41:03] Cameron: So gen­er­al rule, if it’s already in play, when it appears on our buy list,

[00:41:08] Cameron: prob­a­bly walk 

[00:41:09] Tony: Yeah. 

[00:41:10] Cameron: If it’s in play, walk away. There you go. That’s going to be my mot­to.

[00:41:15] Tony: And what about ask for due

[00:41:16] Tony: dili­gence so you can see the kimono get opened?

[00:41:19] Cameron: Yeah. I’ve been, I’ve been in some Aus­tralian board­rooms. I don’t want to see any of those in Aus­tralian board­rooms, Tony. Uh, just to buy the buy, anoth­er for our club mem­bers, anoth­er stock on our buy list, SZL, uh, has been sus­pend­ed from trad­ing pend­ing a vol­un­tary delist­ing. So SXL is the one that’s in play, SZL is Sez­zle, which you talked about recent­ly I 

[00:41:44] Tony: No, I don’t

[00:41:45] Tony: think so. That’s a buy now pay lat­er com­pa­ny.

[00:41:48] Tony: Isn’t it? If I did talk about it, I’d say don’t buy it.

[00:41:51] Cameron: I think it.

[00:41:52] Cameron: came up on, um, one of our shows? No? I’m search­ing through my [00:42:00] notes. 

[00:42:00] Tony: not ring­ing a bell 

[00:42:02] Cameron: No, okay, I don’t know, some­body’s been talk­ing to me about Sez­zle then, not you.

[00:42:07] Cameron: Okay, so that’s all I’ve got on my talk­ing points for this week, Tony, what have you got?

[00:42:12] Tony: Yeah, I’ve got a, uh, very lit­tle to talk about, um, I want­ed to do a shout out to a chap called Lachie, who I played golf with again on, on Sun­day, and we played golf before, and last time we played golf, I mean, this is, Lachie’s a won­der­ful golf play­er, and, uh, man­ages a shop­ping cen­tre, Um, for one of the large com­pa­nies that do that and we got talk­ing about finances and he was kind of all inter­est­ed in QAV and inter­est­ed in invest­ing and um, we talked about the sim­ple steps to take.

[00:42:41] Tony: He’s, I think, prob­a­bly ear­ly thir­ties or late twen­ties, um, and was try­ing to save for a home and all the rest of it. And then we chat­ted again on the week­end, he saw my name on the book­ing sheet and joined us, which was great. Um, and the, I was say­ing, Oh, You know, real­ly get­ting my stuff in order. I’ve [00:43:00] rent­ed out a room in the house.

[00:43:01] Tony: Um, that’s going to help save, you know, for a deposit and all the rest. So it was real­ly nice to, to see some­one take some action and try­ing to get, you know, their finances, finan­cials togeth­er. So big shout out to Lock, shout out to Lock­ie. Well done, mate. Um, and thanks for the game. It was great. Uh, Inter­est rates rose last week on Mel­bourne Cup Day, it was­n’t the only thing that was, um, of inter­est that day.

[00:43:24] Tony: And so peo­ple, if they haven’t already, and they do run their own, um, buy list spread­sheets need to change the, the hur­dle rate we use in IV cal­cu­la­tions to 4. 35%, which I think we’ve done in our buy list that we put out, but if any­one’s doing it sep­a­rate­ly, they need to do that. I did want to talk about Mac­quar­ie Group, because I know we touched on it briefly.

[00:43:46] Tony: Last week, and then I went on to Phil Mus­catel­lo’s show yes­ter­day, and he asked me about impair­ments and write downs, and that made me think, I may have men­tioned last week that Mac­quar­ie had tak­en an impair­ment [00:44:00] because of its ESG assets, and I did check into that, and it has­n’t. What’s hap­pened with Mac­quar­ie?

[00:44:05] Tony: I just want to clar­i­fy for the record. Um, Mac­quar­ie, uh, in its, um, Divi­sion Mac­quar­ie Asset Man­age­ment, which basi­cal­ly the busi­ness mod­el for MAM is that they get into infra­struc­ture devel­op­ments at the ground floor, often put the syn­di­cate togeth­er to, to, um, to bid for, you know, the toll road or the bridge or what­ev­er the gov­ern­men­t’s, um, uh, ten­der­ing for, uh, and then they often­times pro­vide the financ­ing.

[00:44:31] Tony: And then when the thing’s built and up and run­ning, then they, they, they’ll sell it off at a, um, Decent prof­it mar­gin. So they were doing that in the ESG space with wind farms, solar farms, etc. And they called out the fact that they have shut the door on sell­ing any of those. For the near future, um, and, uh, I took that to mean they were going to write down those assets, but they haven’t yet.

[00:44:55] Tony: I guess if there con­tin­ues to be a prob­lem and they can’t sell them for the prices they [00:45:00] need to, then at some stage they will have to write down those asset val­ues, but they haven’t done it yet. So, um, if I said that last week, I apol­o­gize, it was a bit mis­lead­ing. And the last thing I have, Cam, is a pulled pork.

[00:45:13] Tony: Uh, which was a request, and this is on a com­pa­ny called Civmec, CVL. So thanks for the, for the request, it’s um, inter­est­ing com­pa­ny, I, I quite like it. How­ev­er, it’s a very small com­pa­ny, sor­ry, it’s a, it’s a com­pa­ny with a very small ADT of only 13, 000 on aver­age, so it won’t suit peo­ple like myself and oth­er peo­ple like me out there.

[00:45:37] Tony: Uh, but it is a good com­pa­ny, and… The rea­son why I thought I would do the pulled pork on it is it is pos­si­ble that the ADT may improve next year. So peo­ple might want to hear about it now and think about invest­ing next year if they, if they like the com­pa­ny. And the rea­son for that is this com­pa­ny orig­i­nal­ly list­ed on the Sin­ga­pore exchange, uh, back in [00:46:00] 2012.

[00:46:01] Tony: It actu­al­ly start­ed up in 2009. I should say it’s, it’s a con­struc­tion and engi­neer­ing com­pa­ny. Um, it does work across all dif­fer­ent sec­tors, ener­gy, resources, marine, defence, infra­struc­ture, and it does con­struc­tion and build and main­te­nance work, um, as engi­neer­ing com­pa­nies do. Uh, but they list­ed for some rea­son on the Sin­ga­pore Exchange in 2012, and then, uh, in 2018, took up a dual list­ing on the ASX.

[00:46:31] Tony: So, um, dual list­ed. And if you look at the… The share­hold­er infor­ma­tion in Stock Doc­tor, there’s a large, almost half of the, the, uh, shares are list­ed as being owned by the Chess Depos­i­to­ry Nom­i­nees Com­pa­ny, which I think is peo­ple from Sin­ga­pore co invest­ing in Aus­tralia, um, so if the com­pa­ny does go ahead and they put their plan in place.

[00:46:57] Tony: comes to fruition, which is, uh, what [00:47:00] they’re, what they’re doing is to repa­tri­ate, repa­tri­ate to Aus­tralia. Uh, then we may see that, uh, we have all the shares on one exchange and there may be a bet­ter, um, uh, float avail­able, uh, to, uh, to, to buy and sell in the share mar­ket. The oth­er rea­son why there’s a low ADT on this stock, which is prob­a­bly a good thing, is that there are two large own­ers.

[00:47:21] Tony: Um, who are both, uh, one CEO and one’s chair­man, and they have some­thing like 40 per­cent of the shares them­selves. So between Sin­ga­pore investors and the own­ers, it’s like 90 per­cent of the stock is, is account­ed for. And so it’s only the, the rump that’s trad­ing every day. And so we have a low, a low ADT.

[00:47:41] Tony: The oth­er rea­son for repa­tri­at­ing to Aus­tralia, like the com­pa­ny’s called out is because they’re doing more and more work for the Navy and, and defense work. And The gov­ern­men­t’s get­ting tighter and tighter on, um, on their rules about local sourc­ing. So the gov­ern­ment wants to buy Aus­tralian, [00:48:00] um, and this com­pa­ny’s head offices are cur­rent­ly in Sin­ga­pore, even though they do all their work in Aus­tralia.

[00:48:06] Tony: Their, their staff are in Aus­tralia. It’s basi­cal­ly an Aus­tralian com­pa­ny in every­thing but name. Um, so they’ll take steps to come back, which should help. Uh, what else can I say about it? It’s um, I guess the val­ue prop for this com­pa­ny, and why is it dif­fer­ent to oth­er engi­neer­ing com­pa­nies. And, by the by, CIV prob­a­bly stands for Civ­il and Mechan­i­cal, which are two types of engi­neer­ing.

[00:48:30] Tony: Civ­il is, if any­one went through an Aus­tralian uni­ver­si­ty when I did, the engi­neers were all debat­ing whether Civ­il was bet­ter than Mechan­i­cal, which is bet­ter than Elec­tri­cal, which is bet­ter than Chem­i­cal is like four, four types of engi­neer­ing you could do with this. So civ­il is, is, um, engi­neer­ing which builds bridges and roads and build­ings and mechan­i­cal is the type of engi­neer­ing that builds big trac­tors and trains and mechan­i­cal type, uh, engi­neer­ing.

[00:48:56] Tony: So CivMech is the name. I guess that’s where it came from. [00:49:00] Um, but their val­ue prop, which I found inter­est­ing is they have a real­ly big, uh, Facil­i­ty over in WA, just south of Perth, and they have anoth­er one in New­cas­tle, which isn’t quite as big, and a small­er one again in Glad­stone, which are all kind of, you know, areas around resources and nat­ur­al gas, so they’re kind of good places for engi­neer­ing com­pa­nies to be.

[00:49:22] Tony: But the val­ue prop for this com­pa­ny is its big facil­i­ty in WA, which enables it to do a lot of Pre build con­struct­ing in a, in a large hangar like ware­house. And so that’s, that’s, um, there’s some ben­e­fit in that. So rather than, say, build­ing a bridge on site, they can build large por­tions of the bridge under cov­er.

[00:49:43] Tony: They won’t be affect­ed by weath­er dur­ing con­struc­tion. And then truck it out to the site and put it in place in a pre fab. type for­mat. Um, and that’s, um, that saves them lost days for, for being able to work in all types of, um, of [00:50:00] weath­er. Uh, it also, um, I think is, is cheap­er, um, to, to build in the one facil­i­ty and keep that run­ning, um, full bore.

[00:50:09] Tony: Uh, and they also have some oth­er, um, they do their paint­ing on site, which I think is, is, um, is advan­ta­geous as well. So. That’s their val­ue prop. They can build things like, you know, the dump­sters for large min­ing trucks can be built on that hangar, um, again, which is a bit of dif­fer­en­ti­a­tion from oth­er peo­ple that pro­duce that.

[00:50:29] Tony: So any­way, so that’s the com­pa­ny in a nut­shell. Look­ing at the num­bers, uh, share price I did the analy­sis at is a dol­lar. There’s no con­sen­sus tar­get, which is not sur­pris­ing because, you know, with such a low ADT, no stock­bro­ker’s going to wor­ry about. Research­ing this com­pa­ny. Div­i­dend yield is 5%, which does­n’t meet our hur­dle, but it’s pret­ty good.

[00:50:51] Tony: Uh, Stock Doc­tor finan­cial health is strong and steady, also good. It trades on Prop­Caf of 5. 3 times, uh, [00:51:00] also good. Net equi­ty per share is 0. 83, which is below the stock price, but if you look at Book Plus 30%, which is 1. 08, it’s, uh, we’re buy­ing it cheap­er than, uh, Book Plus 30%, which gives it a tick on our, on our check­list.

[00:51:14] Tony: We don’t have any fore­cast earn­ings growth, so I can’t do any, um, check­ing for that. Direc­tors hold 41 per­cent accord­ing to Stock Doc­tor, so that’s a big tick there. P is 8. 6 times, which is not the high­est or low­est, so we can’t score it on that, but it’s still pret­ty low. Equi­ty’s been going up con­sis­tent­ly, which I like, so that’s a tick there.

[00:51:35] Tony: So all in all, the qual­i­ty score for this com­pa­ny is 10 because some of those things like Um, Own­er, Founders, or Direc­tors hold­ing a large amount is, um, scor­ing a 2. So it’s 10 out of 11, or 91%, and the QAV score is 0. 17. So, except for that low ADT, I think it’s a great invest­ment. And if they can change that next year, and free up, uh, some of that float, [00:52:00] then it will come onto our, um, radar screens.

[00:52:04] Tony: Uh, pros and cons. Um, one thing I liked about it is the div­i­dend pay­out ratio is only 45%, but they’re able to trade at a yield of 5 per­cent with their div­i­dends. So, that’s, that’s pret­ty low and, um, if they need to play around with that, they can to get the yield up. Uh, the oth­er thing which I like about this com­pa­ny is that more and more of the busi­ness is com­ing from main­te­nance, which means it’s recur­ring.

[00:52:27] Tony: There’s typ­i­cal­ly they’re sign­ing three year or five year main­te­nance con­tracts. And so that’s good. Um, also too, the last fig­ures, uh, NPAT and sales were both up. I’m just try­ing to find the num­bers here, uh, up 7%, um, year on year. So that’s good. And the rule of the book is up 17 or 18%. Year on year. So they’ve got an order book of 1.

[00:52:48] Tony: 1 bil­lion worth of work. So from that point of view, the busi­ness met­rics are very attrac­tive. Um, and the only, only con I can see, um, hold­ing against this [00:53:00] com­pa­ny is the low ADT, which may change. So all in all, I think it’s a, it’s worth hav­ing a look at and per­haps hav­ing a look at next year, if they

[00:53:07] Tony: can solve the ADT issue by repa­tri­at­ing back to Aus­tralia. 

[00:53:12] Cameron: You missed the most impor­tant kind of engi­neer­ing in

[00:53:15] Cameron: your break­down of engi­neer­ing.

[00:53:17] Cameron: Tony. Prompt

[00:53:18] Cameron: engi­neer­ing.

[00:53:19] Tony: I’ve nev­er heard of prompt engi­neer­ing. I was­n’t taught at

[00:53:22] Tony: uni­ver­si­ty back in the eight­ies.

[00:53:24] Cameron: No, that’s an AI thing, Tony. Prompt engi­neers. Com­pa­nies are pay­ing hun­dreds of thou­sands of dol­lars in salaries for prompt engi­neers. Peo­ple who know how to write a good prompt. For an AI, Prompt Engi­neer­ing. 

[00:53:39] Tony: must qual­i­fy for that job then. 

[00:53:42] Cameron: I, I, if I was­n’t com­plete­ly unhire­able at this

[00:53:46] Cameron: age, uh, yes, spent a lot of time on Prompt Engi­neer­ing. 

[00:53:50] Tony: Well, give the job to Hunter or Tay­lor and you tell them the prompts to use.

[00:53:55] Cameron: yeah, I, I, you

[00:53:56] Cameron: know, Tay­lor’s less hire­able than I am. They’re both, my boys are [00:54:00] less hire­able than

[00:54:00] Cameron: I am. 

[00:54:01] Tony: Oh, come on.

[00:54:01] Cameron: Almost. 

[00:54:03] Tony: Haven’t heard from Tay­lor for a

[00:54:04] Tony: while. What’s he up to?

[00:54:05] Cameron: Oh, killing it,

[00:54:06] Tony: Good. Good on him.

[00:54:08] Cameron: Yeah. He’s crush­ing it. It’s doing well. Um, alright, well thank you. That was a request from Jack­ie, so I hope you liked that. Jack­ie, a cou­ple of ques­tions this week.

[00:54:19] Cameron: First one’s from Rob. Would be inter­est­ed what, to see what Tony thinks about using Trad­ingView for com­modi­ties. The free ver­sion pro­vides access to most of our com­modi­ties and the ben­e­fit is that it makes the process faster because the lines are per­sis­tent across ses­sions. I did like the idea of hav­ing a, uh, just one source that we go to for all of our com­modi­ties because we tend to use Stock Doc­tor and then we go look­ing in oth­er places where there isn’t Stock Doc­tor.

[00:54:49] Cameron: We’ve used Trad­ingView a bit. Do you have a par­tic­u­lar view on Trad­ingView as a source?

[00:54:54] Tony: it. It’s a good, it’s a good prod­uct. Um, and it’s free, as Rob said, so I’m not against it. [00:55:00] I only had a play around this morn­ing to see if we could do all of our Com­modi­ties on it, and I’m still, um, I’d still have to play around with it fur­ther to work out things like ther­mal col­umn, which, which, um, of the many options to, um, to use that we should use.

[00:55:16] Tony: But yeah, it looks good. Looks promis­ing. I did­n’t under­stand the com­ment about per­sis­tent across ses­sions. I’m not sure what that means. If you come

[00:55:24] Tony: back in the future, does it, you can, it’s, I guess it’s, it’s saved your set­tings per­haps? 

[00:55:31] Cameron: I assume that’s what he means and I know that’s

[00:55:33] Cameron: the way that Stock

[00:55:34] Cameron: Doc­tor works as well, it saves you a lit­tle lines. I’ve, I haven’t used Trad­ingView, I don’t think. I’ve used Trad­ing

[00:55:42] Cameron: Eco­nom­ics a bit. But I don’t think any of our stan­dard charts are trad­ing view. I don’t even know how to find the com­modi­ties in here.

[00:55:53] Tony: Just, just go into the search bar and type in gold or oil or what­ev­er [00:56:00] or Brent 

[00:56:02] Cameron: Gold, XAU. Oh, you 

[00:56:05] Tony: choice of US dol­lars or Aus­tralian dol­lars. Um, just with that, I clicked on the five year for gold and it was giv­ing me a week­ly chart. So that was one thing I have to play around with and see if I can get a five year month­ly chart,

[00:56:17] Tony: for exam­ple. 

[00:56:18] Cameron: zoom in. Let me get to a line chart. Just sort of press and hold com­mand while zoom­ing in to main­tain chart posi­tion. Oh, there you go. Yeah. Yeah, you can just sort of zoom in with your mousey thing. Yeah, if I click on the five year thing, it goes back to week­ly actu­al­ly for me, but 

[00:56:44] Tony: but I had to this morn­ing too. 

[00:56:46] Cameron: yeah, you can just, yeah, but I can zoom in.

[00:56:51] Cameron: All right. Well, I’ll check that out. Maybe we can stan­dard­ize on that if they’ve got every­thing. I’ll, I’ll have a play around with the reg­u­lar list that we look at and see if we can just [00:57:00] stan­dard­ize on this. So thank you for that sug­ges­tion, Rob. Good one. The oth­er ques­tion is from Adnan, who calls him­self the Bit­ters Nazi.

[00:57:08] Cameron: Did you get that ref­er­ence, 

[00:57:10] Tony: No. 

[00:57:11] Cameron: A cou­ple of months ago, when you were off the booze, and I told you that we like to drink ton­ic water, sug­ar free ton­ic water, with some bit­ters in it. And he was like, you know, if Tony’s try­ing to stay off the booze, you can’t rec­om­mend bit­ters, because it has alco­hol in it.

[00:57:25] Cameron: So he’s the Bit­ters Nazi. 

[00:57:26] Tony: I got 

[00:57:27] Cameron: Mr. Reil­ly, he says, and Tony and Alex, I have a ques­tion. Is it like­ly I’ll need to par­tial­ly liq­ui­date my port­fo­lio? Oh. Yes, okay. It is like­ly I’ll need to par­tial­ly liq­ui­date my port­fo­lio to pay for a deposit on my first home. Any sug­ges­tions on what sort of stocks I should be culling based pure­ly on the num­bers as is the QAV way?

[00:57:50] Cameron: Now I know that we’ve talked about this before, let me see if I can remem­ber. I think you’ve said if you had, this gets back to some­thing you’ve talked about, if you have [00:58:00] to sell stocks because you need cash for some­thing, how would you go about it? Um, You would start off with the ones that are under­per­form­ing.

[00:58:12] Cameron: Is that where you’d 

[00:58:13] Tony: I’d start it. I’d trim any loss­es, first of all. So it’s all about cap­i­tal gains tax min­i­miza­tion. 

[00:58:19] Cameron: Right. 

[00:58:20] Tony: So if I have to sell some­thing, it’s called a crys­tal­liz­ing trans­ac­tion, and it becomes tax­able after that. So, yeah, I mean, gen­er­al­ly, my port­fo­lio, some­where at some stage will have stocks in there which are, you know, less than…

[00:58:33] Tony: Well, I paid for them. There haven’t been a rule one yet or some­thing like that. There’ll be one or two per­cent below. So I’ll start with those and then I’ll, and then I’ll drop the,

[00:58:43] Tony: the cap­i­tal gains list. So the ones I’ll be keep­ing will have the biggest cap­i­tal gains tax lia­bil­i­ty going for­ward. 

[00:58:49] Cameron: Is there any­thing else that you take into con­sid­er­a­tion? 

[00:58:52] Tony: So, um, depend­ing on add and end sit­u­a­tion, like for me, if I’m using div­i­dends to pay the mort­gage, then I’ll try and hold onto [00:59:00] the high­er pay­ing div­i­dend yields and sell the low­er pay­ing ones first. Yeah, um, I guess that they’re prob­a­bly the only con­sid­er­a­tions, but yeah, if any­one’s doing any sort of fil­ter­ing on the list for ADT or, or yield or some­thing else and yeah, sell the worst, worst of those first, but, but def­i­nite­ly be very cog­nizant of your cap­i­tal gains tax posi­tion when you do it all. 

[00:59:25] Cameron: Because you don’t want to have to have a big cap­i­tal gains tax bill when you’re try­ing to put togeth­er a deposit for 

[00:59:30] Tony: Well, that’s right.

[00:59:30] Tony: And find out you have to sell some more shares to pay that. So yeah, no, def­i­nite­ly

[00:59:37] Cameron: Don’t take that as per­son­al finan­cial advice. Adnan, we don’t know your per­son­al finan­cial 

[00:59:41] Tony: we do not. 

[00:59:42] Cameron: See a, see a finan­cial advi­sor or ask your mum. Um, That’s it. Oh, uh, nice. Sor­ry. At the bot­tom there, Adnan says, uh, He appre­ci­ates and enjoys the pod­cast each week and intends to be a mem­ber for years to come.

[00:59:58] Cameron: That’s 

[00:59:59] Tony: That’s great. [01:00:00] Thanks Adnan. 

[01:00:01] Cameron: Hap­py to have 

[01:00:01] Tony: Yeah. 

[01:00:02] Cameron: even if you’re the bit­ters Nazi. Well, that’s all of the ques­tions for this week. Tony, we’re into after hours. Mel­bourne Cup, 

[01:00:14] Tony: Yeah, I think we’ve talked about it. Yeah, no, noth­ing bad. There was a,

[01:00:17] Cameron: You had a, good day though. 

[01:00:18] Tony: yeah, I did. Yeah, it was good. We actu­al­ly went, actu­al­ly, I should tell you about that. Very inter­est­ing func­tion I went to. So, uh, all of my mates went out to Rand­wick Race­course, which is a race day up here, which, even though it’s not the Mel­bourne Cups in Mel­bourne, they still have a, an event here.

[01:00:32] Tony: But, um, Jen­ny was invit­ed to a func­tion. through, um, uh, busi­ness con­tacts, and so we went along to it and it was fan­tas­tic. It was, um, not a, I mean, they had a widescreen TV in the cor­ner show­ing the races, but no one paid atten­tion to it. Uh, it was just fan­tas­tic. I guess house, but it was basi­cal­ly a con­vert­ed elec­tric­i­ty sub­sta­tion over in Red­fern, full of art on the bot­tom floor.

[01:00:57] Tony: And not just like the art that we have, which is stuff [01:01:00] we like, it’s like, you know, world renowned art. And the cream of Syd­ney busi­ness was there. The Turn­bulls were there and all sorts of oth­er, you know, names and faces you rec­og­nize. And um, Yeah, so I had a min­er­al water and a plate of, um, cheese and sala­mi and

[01:01:19] Tony: rubbed elbows with the Hoi Poloi in Syd­ney, which was inter­est­ing. 

[01:01:24] Cameron: you get into it? With Mal­colm? 

[01:01:26] Tony: No, I did­n’t, I did­n’t talk to him. He had a lot of peo­ple talk­ing to him. I spoke to a cou­ple of, um, you know, board direc­tors, which was inter­est­ing, um, but yeah, I just found it fas­ci­nat­ing. It’s, um, yeah, there was­n’t much inter­est in the Mel­bourne Cup, um, there was a, there’s a lot of, um, How will I put this?

[01:01:47] Tony: It’s obvi­ous­ly a very smart room, so lots of talk­ing and opin­ions going on, um, lots of pon­tif­i­cat­ing, um, but yeah, it was pret­ty relaxed and nice, it was inter­est­ing. 

[01:01:59] Cameron: Michelle Bul­lock [01:02:00] was­n’t there? 

[01:02:01] Tony: She may have been, um, there was a cou­ple of media types there you’d recog­nise, Annabelle Crabbe was there, so, um, yeah. 

[01:02:08] Cameron: Was she cook­ing? 

[01:02:09] Tony: No, she was­n’t.

[01:02:10] Tony: Yeah, inter­est­ing. Inter­est­ing way to spend Mel­bourne Cup Day.

[01:02:14] Cameron: There you go, the cir­cles that you move 

[01:02:17] Tony: Well, Jen­ny moves in, I was just a hand­bag.

[01:02:20] Cameron: You’re the hand­bag. Yeah. 

[01:02:23] Tony: I was like, shut up, there’s a horse race on.

[01:02:25] Cameron: no one came up to you and Turn­bull did­n’t come up to you and say he enjoys lis­ten­ing to QAV? No.

[01:02:31] Tony: did­n’t. No. 

[01:02:33] Cameron: Well, we’ve, we’re halfway through watch­ing a movie that I will high­ly rec­om­mend to any­one who likes Bol­ly­wood films. Um, Jawan. J A W A N. Did you ever watch Triple R? Did I get you to watch Triple 

[01:02:47] Tony: I haven’t yet. No, you did rec­om­mend it. 

[01:02:51] Cameron: This is in the vein of Triple R. It’s also on Net­flix. Jawan. It stars the guy who’s prob­a­bly the biggest movie star in India, I think, Shah Rukh Khan. [01:03:00] SRK. Uh, he’s 58 now, but still look­ing good. Great hair, great body, does some great dances, but it’s, it’s, it’s a, it’s a, it’s like clas­sic over the top Bol­ly­wood film.

[01:03:16] Cameron: Like, he’s basi­cal­ly, it’s like a Robin Hood sto­ry. Mod­ern day Robin Hood sto­ry. He’s this. Ter­ror­ist, who’s, um, going after cor­rupt gov­ern­ment offi­cials and cor­rupt busi­ness­men and mak­ing them pay bil­lions and bil­lions of dol­lars to, uh, poor farm­ers in India and, and, but it’s, but it’s just, it’s like crazy over the top pro­duc­tion.

[01:03:45] Cameron: I think it’s the high­est gross­ing film ever to come out of. India, so it’s 2023, uh, pro­duc­tion. I mean, like, but you know, then they’ll have a big shootout, mas­sive shootout, and then it’ll break into a mas­sive dance scene [01:04:00] with him lead­ing a thou­sand dance girls. And the lyrics of the song are like, be a man­ly man, you know, do what a man should do.

[01:04:08] Cameron: And he’s like. Dancin always doin it, and it’s fan­tas­tic. But I keep laugh­ing with Chris­sy, like, there’s so many ridicu­lous plot holes in this thing, and it’s so over the top, that if it was a Hol­ly­wood film, I would have turned it off after 20 min­utes. I’d be like, ah, this is ridicu­lous, this is bull­shit, I can’t, I can’t deal with this.

[01:04:27] Cameron: But because it’s a Bol­ly­wood film, it’s a whole dif­fer­ent lev­el of cri­te­ri­on, that I will accept things in a Bol­ly­wood film that I would nev­er expect. I’d nev­er accept in a Hol­ly­wood film or an Aus­tralian film, you know? I don’t know why that is. I don’t know why.

[01:04:42] Tony: Well, it’s got its own genre, has­n’t it? It’s like when you go to the Broad­way, you expect show tunes on the stage.

[01:04:48] Tony: It’s, you don’t see them movies or our types of movies, but yeah, it’s just the genre of the thing.

[01:04:54] Cameron: It is, yeah. I mean, there are musi­cals. I

[01:04:56] Cameron: like a good musi­cal like La La Land or what­ev­er that comes out of Hol­ly­wood. But, uh,[01:05:00] 

[01:05:00] Cameron: yeah, no, this is just, just, like, just so… There’s so much joie de vivre in these Bol­ly­wood pro­duc­tions. It’s just, they look like they’re hav­ing so much fun. You know, crazy over the top action as well as mas­sive dances and roman­tic stuff.

[01:05:18] Cameron: And the whole, the whole pack­age! Some­thing for every­one. it’s about three hours long and Chris­sy and I watch about 20 min­utes of TV, about three times a week. You know, that’s, by the time we fin­ish every­thing and, you know, occa­sion­al­ly we’ll set­tle down if we’re not too tired and watch half an hour, you know, but it’s, we, we, we don’t have, uh, We don’t have three hours spare in one hit to sit down and watch some­thing very often, but um, Thor­ough­ly enjoy­ing it, giv­ing me a lot of joy, yeah.

[01:05:51] Tony: Well, I watched The Killer

[01:05:52] Tony: last night, the, uh, David Finch­er.

[01:05:55] Cameron: The Fass­ben­der one, Hunter told me he [01:06:00] real­ly enjoyed it, did you like it?

[01:06:01] Tony: I liked it. I would­n’t say I loved it, but I liked it. It’s, um, it’s Finch­er, so it’s slow mov­ing

[01:06:06] Tony: and atmos­pher­ic. But, um, yeah, I quite enjoyed it. Mmm.

[01:06:13] Cameron: Fincher’s one of my favourite guys. He’s

[01:06:16] Cameron: very rarely let me down, I think. And Fass­ben­der’s a good actor as well, though I haven’t seen him in much of late. But he’s a very sol­id per­former. 

[01:06:26] Tony: and he was good in this too.

[01:06:28] Tony: Yeah.

[01:06:29] Cameron: You ever see Fincher’s The Game?

[01:06:32] Tony: No, I don’t think so. 

[01:06:35] Cameron: Ear­ly film, pre Se7en, pre Fight 

[01:06:39] Tony: okay. Yep. 

[01:06:40] Cameron: Sean Penn and Michael Dou­glas. Michael Dou­glas, uh, Sean Penn throws a birth­day par­ty for him 

[01:06:47] Tony: yeah. Rings a bell. 

[01:06:50] Cameron: I think he g Sean Penn gives Michael Dou­glas, he’s his big broth­er, a birth­day

[01:06:53] Cameron: present. And it’s some big scam and thing, [01:07:00] he gets kid­napped he thinks, and then the guy takes the cops to the office where he was kid­napped or the place where he was kid­napped and no one’s there, it has­n’t been occu­pied for six months or some­thing, any­way, yeah, it was good.

[01:07:14] Cameron: That was the first time I think I ever saw a Finch­er film and rec­og­nized him as a direc­tor to pay atten­tion to. It was like 25 years ago or some­thing, late 90s I think, ear­ly 90s, mid 90s. Jol­ly good. Well, that’s 

[01:07:28] Tony: Mm hmm. 

[01:07:29] Cameron: me, Tony. 

[01:07:30] Tony: ASX camp. 

[01:07:32] Cameron: hap­py share mar­ket to you, Tony. And, uh, with a bit of luck,

[01:07:36] Cameron: we’ll be back next week when the mar­ket will have, we, we did say last week.

[01:07:41] Cameron: The mar­ket had been going up and up and up and we did­n’t believe it would last because we were punch drunk and we were right. I, I, I, we did­n’t men­tion this before though that last Tues­day after we record­ed, was it Tues­day when the RBA inter­est rates went up, the mar­ket sort of did­n’t [01:08:00] take a hit, it just sort of blipped and kept going 

[01:08:02] Tony: Yeah,

[01:08:03] Tony: I’d expect­ed it.

[01:08:04] Cameron: week. Is that what it 

[01:08:06] Tony: Yeah?

[01:08:06] Tony: Oh, def­i­nite­ly. Every­one was tip­ping a 25 per­cent hike. 

[01:08:11] Cameron: Right. So it, it sort of just, uh, took a beat.

[01:08:15] Cameron: And then it kept going.

[01:08:17] Tony: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, and per­haps the RBA knew that and did­n’t want to sur­prise the mar­ket with not putting inter­est rates up or putting up, putting them up with a dif­fer­ent amount. So I get it. But, um, yeah, no, it was, it. was fore­cast to hap­pen.

[01:08:31] Cameron: Right. Yeah, But,

[01:08:33] Cameron: I mean, it’s been fore­cast before and the mar­ket always takes a hit.

[01:08:38] Tony: that’s right. I guess there’s a bit of a lead from Wall Street. Um, cen­tral banks makes nois­es one day they won’t need to drop, uh, to raise inter­est rates going for­ward. And then they come out the next day and say, well, I just want to expand on that com­ment. We may

[01:08:51] Tony: have to. So it’s, yeah,

[01:08:54] Cameron: Well, it was back up today, but if I look at like the,

[01:08:57] Cameron: you know, if I look at the last, what, [01:09:00] 12 months? Still down over the last 12 months, but seems to be on a climb since the begin­ning of Novem­ber. So we’ll see what hap­pens. 

[01:09:11] Tony: It’s allowed me to, to invest again. I was in cash

[01:09:13] Tony: there for a while and I’m now get­ting back close to ful­ly invest­ed.

[01:09:17] Cameron: Yeah. I man­aged to buy a lot of stuff for the light port­fo­lios and my super port­fo­lio. I think I’m near­ly ful­ly invest­ed in my super port­fo­lio again for the first time in a long time. It’s been tricky. 

[01:09:30] Tony: I’ve just got an email from Alex.

[01:09:31] Tony: say­ing sor­ry, she picked up my request to come on the show.

[01:09:34] Cameron: Bit late, Alex.

[01:09:36] Tony: we’ll get you next week.

[01:09:38] Cameron: Yeah. All right. Thanks, mate. You have a good week. 

[01:09:40] Tony: you too. [01:10:00] [01:11:00]