QAV 818 — Buffett’s Last Dance

by | May 7, 2025 | Australia, Blog, Investing Podcast, Podcast Episodes

In this episode of QAV Club, record­ed on 6 May 2025, Cameron and Tony unpack the Aus­tralian fed­er­al elec­tion result with the kind of sharp polit­i­cal analy­sis and irrev­er­ent ban­ter you expect. They explore the col­lapse of sup­port for the Lib­er­al Par­ty, the impli­ca­tions for Peter Dut­ton, and the broad­er shifts in Aus­tralian vot­er demo­graph­ics. Then, they piv­ot to War­ren Buffett’s final Berk­shire Hath­away AGM, reflect­ing on his lega­cy, invest­ing phi­los­o­phy, and the future of the com­pa­ny post-Buf­fett. The episode also includes due dili­gence on NRW Hold­ings (NWH), QPM Ener­gy (QPM), and a deep dive pulled pork seg­ment on Motor­cy­cle Hold­ings (MTO). Plus, there’s a lis­ten­er ques­tion on Heal­ius (HLS), and Cameron fields the peren­ni­al para­dox of being a Marx­ist val­ue investor. Oh, and there are motor­cy­cles, AI, and some point­ed shots at Don­ald Trump. Clas­sic QAV.

QAV 817 — Smart Metal and Dumb Markets

by | Apr 30, 2025 | Australia, Blog, Investing Podcast, Podcast Episodes

This week we deep-dive into BIS (Bisal­loy Steel Group), ques­tion­ing whether it’s tru­ly a steel com­mod­i­ty play giv­en its ris­ing price amid a falling steel mar­ket. Tony deliv­ers a pulled pork on BIS, explor­ing their niche in quenched and tem­pered steel, its use in defence indus­tries, and the company’s recent inclu­sion in the All Ords. W also tack­le dis­crep­an­cies in price-to-oper­at­ing-cash­flow (Pr/OpCaf) num­bers between Stock­o­pe­dia and man­u­al cal­cu­la­tions, and reflect on the sale of Stock Doc­tor. There’s a read­er ques­tion on oper­at­ing cash­flow cal­cu­la­tions and plen­ty of ban­ter about sobri­ety, diet, and what they’ve been watch­ing lately—from _Landman_ to _Face/Off_.

QAV 816 — Gold Diggers

by | Apr 23, 2025 | Australia, Blog, Investing Podcast, Podcast Episodes

In this post-East­er episode, Cam and Tony chew through the week’s mar­ket moves, explor­ing why the All Ords is up despite a gloomy glob­al out­look. They rip into Trump’s lat­est Fed-fir­ing fan­tasies, dis­sect the eco­nom­ics of tar­iffs, and won­der if AI will treat us like Yel­low­stone squir­rels. There’s a deep dive on Bank of Queensland’s lat­est results, plus a pulled pork on gold min­er Tri­bune Resources (ASX: TBR). They close with some exis­ten­tial mus­ings on eco­nom­ic stag­na­tion, robot-run sub­urbs, and whether humans are about to be the squir­rels of tomor­row.

QAV 815 — Tax On, Tax Off

by | Apr 16, 2025 | Australia, Blog, Investing Podcast, Podcast Episodes

In this episode, Cameron and TK dive into the tumul­tuous week in the mar­kets, heav­i­ly influ­enced by the Trump admin­is­tra­tion’s tar­iff announce­ments and sub­se­quent pause. They dis­cuss the impact on US Trea­sury bonds, Chi­na’s long-term eco­nom­ic strat­e­gy, and the poten­tial break­down of glob­al trust in the US econ­o­my. They briefly cov­er port­fo­lio updates, Ray Dalio’s per­spec­tive on the break­down of the glob­al order, and com­pa­ny-spe­cif­ic news includ­ing Accent Group (AX1), Fin­di (FND), Comms Group (CCG), Per­en­ti (PRN), Tel­stra (TLS), and TK’s new board appoint­ment at Clime Invest­ment Wealth (CIW). TK also pro­vides a detailed “Pulled Pork” analy­sis on Cedar Woods Prop­er­ties (CWP). The episode con­cludes with after hours.

QAV 814 — The Big Grift

by | Apr 9, 2025 | Australia, Blog, Investing Podcast, Podcast Episodes

In this episode, Cameron and TK dive into the recent mar­ket volatil­i­ty, large­ly dri­ven by US tar­iff announce­ments. They dis­cuss the impor­tance of stick­ing to the QAV invest­ing frame­work dur­ing uncer­tain times, con­trast­ing it with reac­tive or emo­tion­al deci­sion-mak­ing often seen else­where. The con­ver­sa­tion touch­es on the poten­tial eco­nom­ic impacts of the tar­iffs, includ­ing the log­ic behind them, the poten­tial for decou­pling from Chi­na, the his­tor­i­cal con­text of tar­iffs in Aus­tralia, and the pos­si­bil­i­ty of it all being a “grift”.

QAV 813 — The Mill Red Flag

by | Apr 2, 2025 | Australia, Blog, Investing Podcast, Podcast Episodes

In this episode, TK shares his busy week involv­ing golf, horse rac­ing, and fam­i­ly events, includ­ing his daugh­ter’s first auc­tion and his upcom­ing birth­day. Cameron updates on the QAV light port­fo­lio’s per­for­mance, not­ing it’s now beat­ing the index since incep­tion and for the finan­cial year, despite sell­ing EHL and TPG. They dis­cuss Dol­lara­ma’s acqui­si­tion of The Reject Shop (TRS) at a sig­nif­i­cant pre­mi­um, spec­u­late on the ratio­nale, and touch on poten­tial chal­lenges for Dol­lara­ma in the Aus­tralian mar­ket. Con­cerns are raised about Stock­o­pe­dia fol­low­ing staff depar­tures and data dis­crep­an­cies, par­tic­u­lar­ly with Price to Oper­at­ing Cash Flow (Prop­CAF) fig­ures. The hosts delve into ASIC and the RBA scru­ti­niz­ing the ASX over CHESS replace­ment issues and oper­a­tional risks. They ana­lyze sev­er­al stocks: Accent Group (AX1) poten­tial­ly see­ing increased stake from Fraser’s Group, New Hope Group’s pos­i­tive results and share buy­back amidst slump­ing coal prices, Ramelius Resources’ (RMS) con­tro­ver­sial acqui­si­tion of Spar­tan Resources and sub­se­quent removal from Stock Doc­tor’s star list due to dis­clo­sure and finan­cial con­cerns, and NZME’s results, poten­tial cor­po­rate activ­i­ty involv­ing Stuff, and a loom­ing board chal­lenge from Cana­di­an bil­lion­aire Jim Gren­nan. A sig­nif­i­cant dis­cus­sion revolves around estab­lish­ing ‘red flags’ for cor­po­rate gov­er­nance issues, trig­gered by Heli­a’s (HLI) CEO sell­ing shares before bad news, Indi­ana Resources (IDA) fail­ing to lodge reports on time, and broad­er con­cerns about man­age­ment integri­ty, time­ly dis­clo­sure, and when to remove a red flag. They also cov­er TPG Tele­com’s sale of assets to Vocus and per­form a deep dive into San­tos (STO), includ­ing its his­to­ry, recent per­for­mance, QAV met­rics, and asso­ci­at­ed risks. The episode wraps up with ‘After Hours’ chat about clas­sic TV shows like Joe 90 and Odd Squad, films like Unfor­giv­en and Ipcress File, music dis­cov­er­ies includ­ing Trans­plants and The Dis­tillers, and TK’s upcom­ing horse races.

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