Market and portfolio updates, Brent’s secret QAV tweaks which delivered his terrific results, and GNC vs Wheat.

In the Club episode,  Pulled pork on Brambles (BXB),  STOCKOPEDIA NAPS, the “Curse of Knowledge”, more discussion on Average True Range.


QAV 703 Club

[00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome, welcome to QAV, TK, uh, this is episode 703, 16th of January, 2024. You’re living in a very bare looking room there, Tony. You’ve

[00:00:21] Tony: Oh, don’t talk about the war. We haven’t been robbed. No, we’ve been, we have been cleaned out. Uh, yeah, getting ready for our sales process. And, uh, yeah, I mean, we’ve decluttered, which is probably the biggest benefit of presenting the property. Um, we’ve had stylists in bringing different furniture in, um, different furniture to what I would have picked, but that’s personal taste, I guess, but at

[00:00:47] Tony: least the place is themed

[00:00:49] Tony: now.

[00:00:49] Cameron: is it, is it a reflection on you that they replaced all of your furniture with something that is crappy?

[00:00:57] Tony: didn’t say crappy, I have said crappy to them in the past, but they took that stuff away.

[00:01:04] Cameron: Oh, right.

[00:01:04] Tony: Yeah, yeah, possibly it’s personal taste, but I mean, it makes sense. Everything’s decluttered. It’s all themed with the same color scheme and it’s all low profile to highlight the

[00:01:13] Tony: views.

[00:01:13] Cameron: I’ve been to your place many times. I never came away thinking it was cluttered. Lots of art, lots of art and lots of,

[00:01:23] Tony: I know.

[00:01:24] Cameron: blown pieces and stuff, but definitely not cluttered. No.

[00:01:29] Tony: Well, no. Well, the theory is that you’re meant to basically present a blank canvas so someone can walk in and mentally say, Oh, I can put my art there rather than saying, Hmm,

[00:01:43] Tony: I don’t like

[00:01:43] Tony: that art or something like that. So you want to focus them on the

[00:01:46] Cameron: people people buying 10 million

[00:01:48] Cameron: apartments don’t have enough imagination to be able to think that through for themselves, you know, wonder what it would look like.

[00:01:55] Tony: If we only get 10 million, I’m not going to

[00:01:57] Cameron: I wasn’t, I was not wanting to, you know, throw a real number out there because it might, people might have hard to say. If any of our listeners want to put a bid in for your apartment, uh,

[00:02:10] Tony: Yeah.

[00:02:12] Cameron: should they contact you privately?

[00:02:14] Cameron: Send you an email?

[00:02:15] Tony: Uh, Adam Regan, he’s our real estate

[00:02:17] Cameron: Oh, okay. Come find me, and I’ll take my cut, then I’ll pass it on to Adam Regan. Well, good luck with all of that over the next, uh, week, Tony. Sounds

[00:02:28] Tony: No, you don’t get a cut because that was, that’s been part of the process. It’s like, um, the real estate agent asked us if we had people who we thought might buy the place.

[00:02:36] Cameron: Uh huh.

[00:02:37] Tony: So, um, otherwise he gets a commission and I’m like, he gets a commission on the sale. And I said, we should carve out someone that we bring to you and he said sure give me their

[00:02:47] Tony: names so a list of names of people who might be interested

[00:02:50] Cameron: And was I one of them?

[00:02:51] Tony: um if you bring if you bring someone to us I’m not paying your commission and the real estate agent a commission.

[00:02:57] Cameron: okay. Right. Just me. Fine. I get it. Uh

[00:03:02] Tony: Ha ha

[00:03:02] Tony: ha ha.

[00:03:04] Cameron: Uh All right. Well, let’s get into market news, Tony. Uh, market’s had a bit of a nothing week. It’s kind of gone up and down and gone really nowhere in the process. I haven’t looked for, Oh, it’s had a bad day today. What the hell? It’s gone right down

[00:03:23] Cameron: today. Um, there you go.

[00:03:26] Tony: shouldn’t have looked.

[00:03:29] Tony: Ha

[00:03:29] Cameron: hell happened today?

[00:03:31] Cameron: I, I, I knew the

[00:03:32] Tony: I don’t know, the

[00:03:34] Cameron: the fin this morning.

[00:03:36] Cameron: Yeah, the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses. The share market has already

[00:03:41] Tony: Uh,

[00:03:42] Cameron: I did see in

[00:03:43] Cameron: the,

[00:03:43] Cameron: fin this morning, they were saying it was going to

[00:03:45] Cameron: slip, but, uh, that’s more than a

[00:03:47] Cameron: slip. That’s, uh. That’s a

[00:03:49] Cameron: dip. Oh well, back to where it was roughly, uh, the 18th of December a month ago.

[00:03:55] Cameron: So there goes that end of December rally. Thanks, thanks for getting our hopes up, Market.

[00:04:02] Cameron: Um,

[00:04:02] Tony: it’s like, it’s like, some, when I was a kid sometimes I’d get Christmas presents and I’d lose them in January because I’d done something wrong and they’d be taken off me again.

[00:04:12] Tony: What’d I do wrong ASX?

[00:04:13] Tony: C’mon!

[00:04:14] Cameron: that still happen? Jenny, take away your presents. Uh, I’ll QA portfolio report. Uh, the dummy

[00:04:25] Cameron: portfolio, when I looked at it this morning I dunno what it’s done today, but it was still tracking along slightly less than double markets since inception. Over the last seven

[00:04:32] Cameron: days. It had been up about just under 1% while the, uh, STW was down slightly 0.1. But, uh, the big winner for us

[00:04:44] Cameron: in the last couple of days had been.

[00:04:47] Cameron: S. U. L. S. U. L’s had a bump a couple of days for some reason. I think you’ve got that down as a note to talk about later on. What happened with S. U. L. Tony?

[00:04:57] Tony: yeah, well, don’t talk too

[00:04:59] Tony: soon because I think It’s down today, but, uh, they released a

[00:05:02] Tony: trading update. We’re in confes we’re in

[00:05:03] Tony: confession season. That is something to talk about. So,

[00:05:06] Cameron: Yeah, right.

[00:05:06] Tony: uh, next month, February, which is fast approaching will be the company reporting season when we’ll get busy and crunch our numbers, uh, based on the results for the last half.

[00:05:17] Tony: Uh, And so companies who are already seeing Graphs of those numbers, um, are obliged to update the market if they have, um, something to, to tell the market, which, um, is different to, to what the consensus in the market is for the numbers that they’re about to release. So, Super Group came out a couple of days ago and said that they were doing better than consensus and so the shares went up, but I think they’re down again today.

[00:05:43] Cameron: Yeah, with everything

[00:05:44] Tony: But yeah, be aware of it. It’s going to be a thing for the next couple of weeks that shares could bounce around with those kinds of announcements

[00:05:49] Tony: in, uh, confession season.

[00:05:52] Cameron: Well, shares have been bouncing around quite a lot. I think we’re all used to that. Chairs bouncing around. Uh, well that was the big winner anyway for us in the WPortfolio in the last

[00:06:02] Cameron: week. Uh, the Stockopedia WPortfolio is down a little bit in the last week for some reason. The US

[00:06:10] Cameron: WPortfolio also down a little bit

[00:06:12] Cameron: but still outperforming the S& P over there.

[00:06:16] Cameron: Somebody did ask me

[00:06:17] Cameron: during the week for a list of the US stocks that I’ve put in our portfolio, which I sent, but I also posted those today in the blog

[00:06:26] Cameron: posts. So if people are interested, You can have a look, but mostly a lot of shipping and banking and finance,

[00:06:33] Cameron: uh, seems to be. What, uh, the list is throwing up in the U.

[00:06:37] Cameron: S., so, yeah, I think 75 percent of the U. S. portfolio is made up of those sorts of stocks, which is interesting, banking and finance we’re used to, but I’m not used to buying shipping companies, a lot of shipping companies, a lot of them are Greek shipping companies,

[00:06:54] Cameron: things like that, Cyprian shipping companies, um,

[00:06:58] Tony: Well, we don’t have any of those in

[00:07:00] Tony: Australia, do we?

[00:07:02] Cameron: Not that I know of. Yeah. Speaking of results, Brent, Brent posted his results, uh, to the Facebook group this week. And as always, when Brent posts his results, they’re always stellar. Uh, he’s outperforming the dummy portfolio for this financial year so far, as well as for most of the previous years, as well as my own portfolio, et cetera, et cetera.

[00:07:27] Cameron: He said, uh, just updated my performance for the first six months of this FY. Roughly 35 percent of the return consisted of dividends. Happy to beat the market as I’ve held 33 percent of the capital in cash. That’s a lot of cash to be sitting on. Star performers were HLI, FPR, SUL, LYL, and DTL. What surprised me, if I look at the inception date, I just nudged a double in under three years.

[00:07:54] Cameron: Wow. Thanks, Tony Cam and the group. Which means that in three years, he’s basically got a hundred percent. return on his portfolio, which is what QAV should deliver, right? The rule of 72 every three, three and a half years, it should basically double. Um, and so I emailed Brent and said, look, everyone’s going to want to know what you’re doing differently to the rest of us.

[00:08:18] Cameron: And he sent me a reply, which I’ll, I just got before we went to air. So I’ll read this out. Hey Cameron, few points off the top of my head. So I’m right. I’m working while I write this. So very basic. Tell my secrets on the free version of the podcast so everyone hears it. All right. One, I read the annual reports of the businesses on the score sheet before I buy.

[00:08:38] Cameron: I like to look at their historical performance, try to understand their business, try to gauge their history of capital allocation, try to understand if there is some competitive advantage slash moat slash great asset. 2. I look for stocks with buybacks. In my investing career, I’ve never seen so many listed Australian businesses buy back so many shares.

[00:09:01] Cameron: Feel free to jump in whenever you want, Tony. 3. I don’t follow the 10 percent sell rule if there’s no bad news. If there is bad news, I’ll consider the impact and

[00:09:11] Cameron: may sell, but most times I’ll wait until the business reports earnings before I make a decision. 5. On the other hand, I’ll sell some low quality businesses that have appreciated

[00:09:22] Cameron: in price and I believe are at fair value slash or overpriced.

[00:09:26] Cameron: I don’t necessarily wait for it to fall back to the sell line, e. g. GRR, SSG and ME. MHJ, Michael Hill Jewelers, uh, Four, hold on, we went three, five, four, and then five. Okay, so this might be an issue.

[00:09:45] Tony: What? Brent said he does work. What’s he work

[00:09:47] Tony: as?

[00:09:50] Cameron: Look, he, uh, his returns, uh, obviously better than his, uh, numbering system. Four, I continue to hold the coal stocks. The dividends have been substantial over the past 18 months. Five, again, nearly 50 percent of my gain was in one business, which I put about 15 percent of my capital into. Percent, I guess that means.

[00:10:12] Cameron: GRR, bought for 0. 34 and sold for 1. 40 and collected 0. 24 in dividends along the way. That’s the reason for my 30 percent return in the year the ASX dropped. Uh, by the way, if I go back to his financial year returns, his inception date is January 21. Financial year 2021, so he’s only invested for half a year there, 21.

[00:10:34] Cameron: 29 percent return versus the AXJOA of 8. 4%. 22 financial year, he got nearly 36 percent and the, uh, index went down 7. 5%. 23 financial year up 8. 5 percent versus the index up nearly 15%, and then so far this financial year he’s up about 12 percent versus the index up about 8%. So he said that one year GRR really was a massive outperformer for him.

[00:11:07] Cameron: 6. I don’t necessarily buy from the top of the list, I use it as a screener and I’m really looking for an anomaly. 7. Buying businesses with low liquidity doesn’t bother me. Example, ASG and KPG. 8. I’m comfortable double, triple sizing a position when there’s an obvious pricing anomaly. 9. I checked lease payments in the financial reports and backed that out of the operating cash flow number.

[00:11:33] Cameron: Lease payments are a cost of doing business but are reported in the financial section in the cash flow statement. After backing these payments out you get a higher price to cash flow. It helps me avoid some businesses. 10. I do my own checklist on each business I intend buying. I add scores for buybacks and ROIC.

[00:11:52] Cameron: I add scores for business moat and capital allocation using my own knowledge and ideas. I remove lowest PE consensus target from my checklist. 11. Cannot rule out luck and timing. This is not a recommendation that listeners follow these ideas. And then he’s got, below is a list of what I own and what I’ve recently sold.

[00:12:12] Cameron: I haven’t sold much in the past financial year. So I’d actually Don’t know which is which here. I think this is the list of stocks. So I think this is his portfolio. Um, NHC, WDS, YALT, uh, Whitehaven Coal. FPR, KPG, TER, NWS, ASG, NHC, YAL, ASG, SUL, S32, VUK, HLI, MQG, WAF, AFG, WALYL, WGC and CITC. No, sorry, DTC, Data 3, um, so that’s, that’s quite a lot of stocks there, that’s like 20, 23 stocks in that portfolio, um, and the ones that he’s sold recently, GRR, um, IGL, CBA, Uh, N-A-B-C-C-P-C-I-A HELIA Group, uh, K-S-L-V-E-A, Qantas, uh, N-I-C-J-B-H-W-A-F-S-T-O, uh, CCP, again, and CRN.

[00:13:31] Cameron: So that’s, uh, so, you know, uh, you’ve always said, uh, feel free to modify things and tell us how you do. And Brent, as people may remember, six months ago, Brent was on the show when he and his dad went over to the, um, uh, Berkshire Hathaway AGM, good timing, got to see Charlie at his last Berkshire AGM. Um. So, you know, he’s a serious, serious value investor, Brent, and has made some modifications and is doing very well out of it, Tony.

[00:14:05] Tony: That’s great. Well done, Brent. And thanks for sharing too. And, um, I guess my takeaways, and I haven’t, I didn’t see your email by today before this, but my takeaways from that are that, you know, I should look at, um, putting some scores in the checklist for buybacks, um, potentially, and for ROIC, which I think were in there, and potentially look at removing lowest PE and consensus forecast.

[00:14:30] Tony: Uh. They were the sort of, out of all the things that you said there in the answer from Brent, they were the things that I think are hard, can be hard coded. Um, potentially the, he said he is flexible with the 10 percent sell rule, so, um, you know, I’ve been trialling a 20 percent sell rule myself, because I think the 10 percent has been whipsawing us over the last 12 months, so there may be something in that.

[00:14:58] Tony: Um, I would love to know more about this concept of anomaly. He said he’d look for anomalies on the checklist, um, that’d be good to know what he means by that. Um, it’d be good to know more about, he said he double sized some positions, so was that, was that done on the first purchase or does he buy something and then decide to buy more and what are the thoughts and rules around that?

[00:15:23] Tony: Um, and then I think the What was the other thing that we were talking about there? What he talked about there? Uh, yeah, backing out the lease payments, I think was one to look at as well. So some good, good thoughts there. I’ll do some research on those. Thanks, Brent.

[00:15:38] Cameron: Yeah. Good job, Brent. Um, and thanks for sharing. Much appreciated.

[00:15:43] Tony: Yeah,

[00:15:44] Cameron: By comparison, I did the dummy portfolio performance by financial year. Um, FY20, uh, we, we were up 4%. We started sort of halfway through that year. We were up 4%, um, versus the STW down 7%. Uh, FY21, we were up 48 percent versus the STW up 26 and a half.

[00:16:11] Cameron: That was, you know, the coming out of COVID year.

[00:16:15] Tony: COVID.

[00:16:16] Cameron: killed it. FY22

[00:16:19] Tony: and go, sorry, I was going to say, and going into COVID too, we got out

[00:16:24] Tony: at the right.

[00:16:24] Tony: time too, I think,

[00:16:25] Tony: and set it out for a month or two.

[00:16:27] Cameron: Yeah, right. FY 22, we were down one point a 5%. The S St. W was down seven FY 23. We were up nine point a half, and the s stw was up 15. And so far this financial year we’re up about nine and the SST w’s up about seven according to Navea. Um. So, yeah, we’ve outperformed it, um, well, yes, outperformed it four out of the five periods.

[00:17:02] Cameron: I think FY23 was the only one where we didn’t,

[00:17:06] Cameron: um, but some people on the Facebook group So, yeah. I’ve said their performance over the last few years has been nowhere near as good as that or Brent’s, um, Alex and Steven haven’t had good results. I, I, as I told you off air, I’ve been trying to do my super results using OzSuper and I can’t make se their reporting is just a complete mess.

[00:17:26] Cameron: And, uh, I emailed them to ask some questions and was told that it’d take five business days for them to reply to my email. So I spat the dummy and just downloaded everything out of their system and put it into Navexa. According to Navexa, um, my inception date for the super portfolio is, um, August 21.

[00:17:47] Cameron: That’s when I moved everything over to Consolidated, my super into OzSuper and could manage it directly. Uh, FY22, I was down 5%, STW was down 10%, 10. 5 percent in the same period after inception. FY23, I was down 2%, it was, STW was up 15%, and year to date, FY24, I’m down 1. 5 percent and it’s up 7%. So You know, my performance in my super portfolio is nowhere near as good as the performance in the dummy portfolio, even though I obviously manage them exactly the same way.

[00:18:25] Cameron: The only differences being ADT’s super portfolio is limited to ASX 300 stocks, and there have been lots of periods in the last couple of years when I haven’t been able to find anything to buy in the ASX 300, and I’ve been sitting in cash for long periods of time. And the other difference obviously is, um, you know, the, sort of the, just the timing and how long some of these things have been held for and, uh, all of that kind of stuff, you know, timing of getting in and getting out.

[00:18:56] Cameron: Some of the stocks in the dummy portfolio we’ve held for quite a long time, you know, they’ve just gone on to do better and better, uh, like DU, DUR, Duratech is up

[00:19:07] Tony: Mm hmm.

[00:19:08] Cameron: 200 percent since we added it to the

[00:19:10] Cameron: dummy portfolio, stuff like that. So that’s the big question. I know your performance has struggled in the last couple of years.

[00:19:16] Cameron: We’re we’re all basically following the same system. Brent’s got a couple of, uh, tweaks to it. But, um, the big question, I guess, in my mind is why, if we’re all following the same rules, more or less, are we getting such different results? Leaving Brent as an outlier for a moment. Is it ADT? Is it timing? Is it

[00:19:34] Cameron: just, you know, combination of the two?

[00:19:37] Cameron: Luck of when you get in, when you get out, what you buy? Uh, I know that you Probably don’t have any

[00:19:44] Tony: I know we, I don’t, because, because if I did, I’d be changing my performance as well, and you know, we’ve done a lot of work on that, about, you know, whether we’re, whether ADTs are, um, are, you know, uh, are appropriate for us, whether we’re As a group now stepping on each other’s toes as we buy and sell.

[00:20:03] Tony: I’ve been trying using a 20 percent stop loss rather than a 10 percent stop loss, so I trade less and that seems to be helping. I know one of my shares in the last Last week went through its 10 percent stop loss, but I kept it and it rebounded, so, um, I think the 20 percent is probably going to be working out better than the 10%.

[00:20:28] Tony: Uh, but yeah, I, I can’t, I can’t, um, I can’t say why, uh, all, all I can think of is that whatever’s Brent doing does add value to the process, so. I’ll definitely look at some of those things and see if we want to change our process as well. And then we’ll all be like Brent and his returns will

[00:20:48] Tony: drop down.

[00:20:52] Cameron: Yeah, there’ll be a, there’ll be a lag. Um,

[00:20:55] Tony: but yeah, the dummy portfolio is interesting. It does have a lot of, it does have some lower ADT stocks. Like you said, your super is constrained to. ASX 300, my investing is constrained by my need for liquidity. So, um, it could just be that this last year or two, large, you know, large cap

[00:21:13] Tony: value stocks haven’t done as well as the market.

[00:21:17] Cameron: and I wonder, just thinking it through, thinking about it now, I wonder if, um, you know, I did my rule one analysis. Well, not just rule one, my, my sell trigger analysis on the live portfolio a while ago, and it’s basically said that it didn’t cost us anything, but I wonder if I. Isolated that to just high ADT stocks, if it would show a difference.

[00:21:42] Cameron: I wonder if high ADT stocks, uh, may suffer from our, say, rule one sell triggers more than lower ADT stocks.

[00:21:53] Tony: Yeah, quite possibly. And I guess the issue with that is, is it, is that an ongoing thing or is it just a once off? And, um, I’ve never had problems with it in the past. So I suggest it’s probably just, you know, the market cycle we’re in at the moment.

[00:22:05] Cameron: Yeah. The volatility of the last couple of years and

[00:22:09] Tony: Yeah.

[00:22:11] Cameron: Well, anyway, um, we don’t have answers, you know. Your performance for decades It was strong, it’s had a weak couple of years, Brent’s doing well though, the dummy portfolio’s been doing reasonably well, um, so, it’s uh, it’s a head scratcher.

[00:22:32] Tony: Yeah, but we’ll continue to evolve. I mean, we look, you know, like I said, we’re, um, I’m trialling 20 percent stop losses. Um, I’ve looked at RENCO. I don’t think it’s the right thing to do. Um, and I’ll keep looking and I’ll now set up some portfolios that highlight the importance of buybacks and some of the other things that Brent mentioned and see if they’re worth

[00:22:53] Tony: putting into our process.

[00:22:54] Cameron: Yeah. Hey, by the way, um, I was going to talk about this in After Hours, but I’ve been reading um, a collection of essays by Max Planck. You ever read any Max

[00:23:06] Tony: Uh huh. I have not.

[00:23:09] Cameron: Max Planck, um,

[00:23:11] Cameron: as I’m sure most people know, one of the founders of quantum physics, uh, the Planck length is named after him. It’s the smallest length in measurement.

[00:23:24] Cameron: I was going to make a

[00:23:26] Tony: Yeah, I was about to as well, but we won’t.

[00:23:32] Cameron: We won’t

[00:23:32] Tony: Continue, Mr. Plank.

[00:23:37] Cameron: but he’s, he’s got a lot of great quotes. He was, he was very, very good with the quote. One of his most famous is a new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making him, making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it. Um, science advances one funeral at a time, similar light. Um, when you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change.

[00:24:16] Tony: Okay.

[00:24:17] Tony: Yep. True. That’s profound.

[00:24:19] Cameron: Yeah. And that gets back to my conversation or our conversation last week about. AI and programming and coding, now everything I see has changed because I’m now like, okay, I can, I can write code and everything becomes a coding problem for me now. But, um, I like this one. This is the one I was going to mention that I thought was, um, relevant for us.

[00:24:41] Cameron: Uh, order demands classification.

[00:24:47] Tony: Yeah, that’s a really good one. And that’s, I think, the basis of QAV, isn’t it? It’s, it’ll be interesting to know how much of Brent’s secret sauce is codable and how

[00:24:58] Tony: much is gut feel.

[00:25:01] Cameron: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, there’s obviously some things you said there that are, that are codable. Um, but you know, if we, we can put those to the

[00:25:12] Cameron: test and maybe if we get this new regression testing system built with Matthew’s help, um, we might be able to, you know, do some regression testing on that and see how it plays out.

[00:25:21] Cameron: But, uh,

[00:25:23] Tony: yeah,

[00:25:23] Tony: it reminds me of the old John, um, is it John? No. Peters, anyway. Tom Peters. The, um, business management guru who said you can’t manage what you can’t

[00:25:32] Tony: measure.

[00:25:33] Cameron: yes.

[00:25:34] Tony: Same sort of thing.

[00:25:35] Cameron: At Microsoft, we used to say, what gets measured gets, uh, managed. Yeah. What gets, what gets measured gets done. I think it was. What gets measured gets done. Yeah.

[00:25:48] Tony: Hmm.

[00:25:50] Cameron: Speaking of measuring things, uh, Stockopedia, Elio, our old friend Elio D’Amato did a post the other day. The Australian New Zealand Stockopedia NAPS 2023 review.

[00:26:04] Cameron: So this is a portfolio that they ran in 2023. NAPS stands for No Admin Portfolio System. Um, so they basically bought a bunch of stocks and then did nothing with it to see how they did, I think, is how it worked. Uh, a bit like Dogs of the Dow, but with different criteria. Uh, anyway, the performance, 12 months to the 31st of December 2023, their NAPS portfolio was up 10.

[00:26:33] Cameron: 2 percent versus the ASX 300, which they’re measuring it against, which was up 13. 13%. Some of the winners, well, the big winner they had was like a podium LYL, which, uh, was up 87.3% and the loser was Insignia Financial, IFL. That was down 23.7% over that year. And basically what they’re doing is, I think they’re just selecting, um, the two highest stock rank scores at the start of the year in each sector.

[00:27:12] Cameron: that are large enough for us to consider. I don’t know what that means, but probably a large enough ADT, so it’s like a no ADT stock or something like that. Stock rank being their equivalent sort of, of, um, stock doctor’s, um, scoring, um,

[00:27:32] Tony: Well, yeah, they’re factor investors, so they have a, they rank all the stocks on the ASX in three categories, quality, um, price, and, um, uh, yeah, sentiment, I guess,

[00:27:44] Tony: in our terms. Yeah.

[00:27:46] Cameron: So, um, yeah, they did now perform the index, but it did okay for the year, 10%, but that’s sort of like You know, basic index level returns, but no effort involved in that. They just picked stocks at the beginning of the year and just hold them for the year. Sort of a, an ETF sort of approach, but very limited, I guess.

[00:28:07] Cameron: They’re just buying what they think are the best looking stocks and doing nothing for the year. Not a bad strategy if you want to be hands off.

[00:28:17] Tony: Mm-Hmm.

[00:28:19] Cameron: All right. Well, uh, what else have I got? Uh, la, la, la, la, la, hundred little ideas. My little idea from Morgan Hussell this week, the curse of knowledge. This reminds me of you when we started the podcast.

[00:28:39] Cameron: The occurrence of knowledge, the inability to communicate your ideas because you wrongly assume others have the necessary background to understand what you’re talking about. Ha ha

[00:28:52] Tony: yeah. I certainly have had the curse of knowledge from time to time.

[00:28:55] Cameron: ha ha ha ha ha ha

[00:28:56] Tony: Basically, every time I go to a dinner party and try to hold a conversation, usually .

[00:28:59] Cameron: ha ha ha ha

[00:29:00] Tony: Do you, I mean, you must happen to you too. I go to a dinner party and people wanna talk about the NRL or the AFL or the cricket, and I’m like, I just sit there and listen and then, and I’m not, you know.

[00:29:11] Tony: In the meantime, I’m thinking about, you know, QAV and, yeah, free will and religion and, you know, all these things. And as soon as I try, I remember one classic example was I had a conversation, I did the party once about, um, oh, a number of times actually about the, The, um, you call it Rhapsody of the Nerds, so, you know, the, um,

[00:29:34] Cameron: ha ha

[00:29:36] Tony: the singularity is in the eye.

[00:29:37] Tony: I was so taken by that book, and I used to talk about it with people, and, um, and, and like they’d just stare at your blank face, and their take away from it is, Kynaston’s crazy, he thinks he’s going to live forever, and I’m like, no, that’s not the point, right?

[00:29:53] Cameron: Yeah.

[00:29:55] Tony: Uh,

[00:29:56] Cameron: Well, that’s, yeah, I do feel like that, uh, we were at a Christmas party a couple of weeks ago, um, and I was bored until somebody said, Uh, what do you think’s going on with Russia and Ukraine? What’s that all about? It’s like, really?

[00:30:17] Tony: then they were bored?

[00:30:18] Tony: Yeah,

[00:30:32] Cameron: I think we need to go now. These people were like semi, semi conscious at that point. But, um, yes, I think I did get it. Yeah. But I’m like, okay, well, now we, now we’ve got to a place where I can actually talk about something interesting to me.

[00:30:53] Tony: yeah, no, exactly.

[00:30:54] Cameron: the curse of knowledge. Yes, but like the inability, it’s more like the inability to communicate something that you know a lot about to people who don’t know a lot about it because you don’t even have the terminology. Uh, to talk about it in a way. And you know, that’s pretty much like for the last 19 years with the shows that I’ve been doing on history and science and philosophy, I’ve always seen, because I’m not, uh, as, as you well know, educated on any topic, I have no qualifications.

[00:31:30] Cameron: Uh, but. What I’ve always seen my job as being in the podcast is to, and in the film and, and, you know, the books and that kind of stuff, is to take what all the academics are saying and translate it and communicate it in a way that people might be able to understand, because academics are often very bad at articulating what they know in a way that won’t put people to sleep in 30 seconds.

[00:31:59] Cameron: So I sort of always thought that was my job. And even with QAV, like in the early days, it was trying to figure out What you were talking about and dumb it down to a level where I could understand it. And if I could understand it, then maybe other people could understand it as well. So, um, I think it’s, it’s an opportunity, but yeah, fortunately I don’t have any knowledge about anything, so I don’t suffer from the curse of knowledge, but I did think of you when I read that one.

[00:32:25] Tony: Oh, come on.

[00:32:27] Cameron: No, huh?

[00:32:28] Tony: Tell us about Kung Fu. Tell us

[00:32:29] Tony: about chess. Tell

[00:32:30] Cameron: I’m not an expert on anything. I know, I know a little bit about a lot of things.

[00:32:36] Tony: Oh, is that the time? Oh,

[00:32:37] Tony: well.

[00:32:39] Cameron: Like my wife.

[00:32:40] Cameron: Chrissy just, her eyes roll up in the back of her head at dinner time if

[00:32:43] Cameron: I ever get under something and

[00:32:45] Cameron: gets quite cranky. All right.

[00:32:48] Tony: Alex, of course,

[00:32:49] Tony: suffers from the curse

[00:32:50] Tony: of knowledge when she

[00:32:51] Tony: talks to us about art.

[00:32:52] Cameron: Yes. Hello, Alex. Welcome to the show.

[00:32:56] Alex: Hello. Thank you. I have to say my

[00:32:59] Marker

[00:32:59] Alex: captive audience is quite

[00:33:01] Alex: polite when I do start going on about art, so

[00:33:04] Tony: it’s interesting. It’s good, isn’t it? It’s a good subject to talk about

[00:33:08] Tony: at dinner parties.

[00:33:10] Alex: Yeah, or when we’re at the Louvre on

[00:33:12] Tony: Oh,

[00:33:13] Alex: Podcast

[00:33:13] Tony: it’s one of the

[00:33:14] Tony: highlights of my life is going through

[00:33:16] Tony: a, an art gallery with you. It’s like getting a personal tour. It’s

[00:33:19] Cameron: Yeah. I remember when we were walking around the Louvre.

[00:33:22] Alex: How are we going to finagle the, yeah, we need to somehow figure out a QAV. Europe trip, 2025,

[00:33:31] Cameron: Yeah.

[00:33:31] Tony: Oh, Okay. All right.

[00:33:34] Cameron: We can’t like make it this year. It has to be,

[00:33:36] Cameron: you want to kick it out of you? Yeah.

[00:33:41] Alex: Enough time to plan, you know.

[00:33:42] Tony: Unfortunately, the most natural

[00:33:44] Tony: QAV trip is to Omaha in, in May.

[00:33:48] Cameron: Well,

[00:33:48] Tony: have an air and space museum

[00:33:50] Tony: there, but no art

[00:33:50] Tony: galleries, I don’t think. Not that I

[00:33:52] Tony: know of anyway.

[00:33:53] Cameron: may not be anyone to go see in Omaha in May, but you know,

[00:33:57] Cameron: way it’s going.

[00:33:58] Cameron: We’re already 50 percent down. What have you been up to this week, Alex?

[00:34:06] Alex: I had an interview this morning and then we’ve been moving. We got

[00:34:09] Alex: keys to our new place this morning, so. Lots of things happening, and of course I got sick last night,

[00:34:15] Tony: ah,

[00:34:16] Alex: but otherwise it’s been

[00:34:18] Cameron: what kind of sick?

[00:34:21] Alex: Nothing bad, I’ve tested and I’m all good, but

[00:34:25] Alex: um, I think just run down. It happens.

[00:34:27] Cameron: All the Kynastons are

[00:34:28] Cameron: moving at once. What’s going on?

[00:34:30] Tony: Yeah. It’s genetic,

[00:34:35] Tony: genetic movement, we have a genetic movement, a rambling gene, I’m reading that book you

[00:34:39] Tony: recommended from Billy Connolly at the moment, Alex, The Rambling Man,

[00:34:42] Alex: Oh, you did? yeah, It’s good, I forgot to give you the, my version,

[00:34:46] Tony: I got

[00:34:46] Cameron: Billy Connolly book?

[00:34:48] Alex: Yep.

[00:34:49] Tony: yeah, came out last year called The Rambling Man,

[00:34:53] Cameron: I

[00:34:53] Tony: it’s about

[00:34:53] Tony: his life running, walking around,

[00:34:56] Cameron: Oh, right,

[00:34:57] Cameron: because I listened to the audio book that he

[00:35:00] Cameron: narrated of

[00:35:01] Cameron: his bio a couple of years ago. Windswept and interesting.

[00:35:05] Cameron: Um,

[00:35:06] Tony: that was his last book

[00:35:07] Cameron: right. I didn’t know he had

[00:35:08] Cameron: another one out. Oh, I gotta grab that

[00:35:11] Cameron: I love listening

[00:35:11] Cameron: to Billy.

[00:35:13] Cameron: Tell his

[00:35:13] Tony: Oh, yeah.

[00:35:15] Cameron: That was why I grew my hair long. That

[00:35:17] Cameron: was after I listened to his, uh, podcast,

[00:35:19] Cameron: not his podcast, his audio

[00:35:21] Cameron: book.

[00:35:21] Cameron: Yeah. Yeah. I thought

[00:35:22] Cameron: this is my

[00:35:23] Cameron: last

[00:35:23] Cameron: chance probably to grow my

[00:35:25] Cameron: hair as long as Billy.

[00:35:28] Cameron: Try and be a

[00:35:28] Cameron: little

[00:35:29] Cameron: bit more windswept and interesting. Oh, good luck with the move, Alex. I hope it goes

[00:35:33] Cameron: smoothly and I hope you’re feeling

[00:35:35] Cameron: better. Do you have a question

[00:35:37] Cameron: from a listener for us

[00:35:38] Tony: and good luck with the

[00:35:39] Tony: interview. Good luck with the interview, Al. How’d it go?

[00:35:43] Alex: I think it went well. Yeah. It’s for a gallery, so that’s kind of ideal if it

[00:35:47] Cameron: yeah. Perfect.

[00:35:49] Alex: Yeah. Yep. Um,

[00:35:52] Alex: I’ve got another question from Angus. I think I read Angus’s

[00:35:54] Alex: question last week.

[00:35:55] Tony: You must have liked it. He’s back for more.

[00:35:58] Alex: Yeah. So, Angus says, Hi Cameron, thanks for a great

[00:36:03] Alex: year of

[00:36:03] Alex: content. One small side note, GrainCorp, ASX

[00:36:06] Alex: GNC, has been on the buy list.

[00:36:08] Alex: You have given it commodity

[00:36:09] Alex: status looking at the wheat price as a

[00:36:11] Alex: buy or sell. I don’t think the price

[00:36:14] Alex: of

[00:36:14] Alex: wheat is a real driver of GNC profitability. They are not a producer of

[00:36:18] Alex: wheat. They are a bulk handler, so they receive cereals and

[00:36:21] Alex: oil

[00:36:21] Alex: seeds from producers, then on sell

[00:36:24] Alex: domestically and internationally.

[00:36:26] Alex: The bigger profit driver for them will be the size of the harvest in Australia. The greater the tonnage of commodities they handle and trade, the

[00:36:33] Alex: better it

[00:36:33] Alex: is for them. a rising wheat

[00:36:35] Alex: price may help the bottom line at times, but may also mean they are paying more for the underlying

[00:36:39] Alex: commodity. Just thought I’d pass it

[00:36:41] Alex: on. I’m a wheat grower who has supplied GrainCorp

[00:36:44] Alex: in the

[00:36:44] Alex: past. They no longer have a

[00:36:45] Alex: facility near us. Cheers, Angus.

[00:36:48] Tony: wow. Angus is the expert here. Um, yeah, thanks for the question. I did the pulled pork on GrainCorp And I think we’ve had this discussion during the pulled pork, um, about whether we should be using the wheat futures price or not. And I think we, you know, it was a

[00:37:04] Tony: 50 50 call. We weren’t, I think, I think I side with Angus about GrainCorp and they, you know, they move things in volume, so volume is going to drive their share price.

[00:37:14] Tony: Um, so I completely concur with Angus, however, I think what convinced us then and still convinces me now is if you go into Stock Doctor and chart GNC share price for the last five years, it correlates almost, it’s so close, it could almost be one to one with the weak futures WHash. Um, so I think that swayed us last time and I think it sways me again now that, you know, for whatever reason, whether it’s Angus’s, um, You know, as, as the price goes up, you know, somehow GrainCorp get a better margin, perhaps, when They buy, pay more when they buy, but pay a lot, get a lot more when they sell, or whether, you, know,

[00:37:58] Tony: perhaps farmers plant more when the price is higher, I don’t know, I can’t

[00:38:01] Tony: explain it, but, you know, there’s a very strong correlation between the

[00:38:05] Tony: Wheat Futures commodity price and GNC

[00:38:08] Tony: share price, so I’m happy to leave

[00:38:10] Tony: it that way.

[00:38:11] Cameron: Yeah. It’s crazy when you look at them, how. Closely the

[00:38:14] Cameron: hairline, isn’t it?

[00:38:15] Tony: Yeah. Yeah. So, Angus, um, if you have any more info, please, um, pass it

[00:38:20] Tony: on. You’re, you’re far more

[00:38:22] Tony: knowledgeable on this than I am, but that’s where we’ve.

[00:38:25] Tony: Got

[00:38:26] Tony: to last time we had a look and I’m inclined to stay there now.

[00:38:29] Cameron: I’ll take a screenshot of this and I’ll, uh, post it

[00:38:33] Cameron: to the Facebook group so people can have a look.

[00:38:36] Tony: Thanks.

[00:38:37] Cameron: Thanks, Tony. Thanks, Angus. Thank you, Alex. The Alex

[00:38:42] Cameron: Angus. Uh,

[00:38:45] Cameron: so you’re going to move two blocks up the road this week? Uh, two blocks closer to St. Kilda?

[00:38:52] Alex: Yeah. Two blocks south. Very specific. right. direction.

[00:38:57] Cameron: All right. Well, good luck with that and good luck with

[00:39:00] Cameron: the interview.

[00:39:03] Alex: Yeah. Thank you. All right. See you

[00:39:05] Cameron: you

[00:39:05] Tony: Han, I’ll talk to you

[00:39:06] Cameron: Thanks, Alex. Bye.

[00:39:08] Alex: Thanks. Bye.

[00:39:09] Marker

[00:39:09] Cameron: Okay. Over to you, Tony, with your questions. No,

[00:39:14] Cameron: your, not your questions. you got any questions for me,

[00:39:17] Tony: pulled pork.

[00:39:19] Tony: Tell me about Max Planck. Pulled

[00:39:22] Cameron: Oh, I can talk about Max Planck. Yeah.

[00:39:24] Tony: doing, we’re

[00:39:27] Cameron: Who are we doing this week? Who should I be short selling this week,

[00:39:30] Cameron: Tony?

[00:39:32] Tony: brambles. Code is BXB,

[00:39:36] Cameron: Oh, do we

[00:39:37] Cameron: own BXB? No, it’s all good. Don’t have to sell it this week. Off you go.

[00:39:44] Tony: alright, well, I think most people will know who Brambles are, but I’ll just give you a background first.

[00:39:50] Tony: I think the interesting thing about Brambles is when I first started investing, Brambles was one of the gross

[00:39:55] Tony: stocks on the ASX. It was, um, it traded on a PE of about 45 times, and it was the CSL of the

[00:40:03] Tony: 90s, in the 80s and 90s. And I guess for good

[00:40:05] Tony: reason, um, pioneered the business of pallet rentals. which I’ll talk about in a minute. Um, and he also then got into a lot of other businesses based on the cash flow of that pallet rental business and um,

[00:40:21] Tony: just, just running through it. Um, so

[00:40:26] Tony: it’s, it’s kind of one of those unique business ideas that come along.

[00:40:29] Tony: I remember I think it was an article, it may have

[00:40:32] Tony: been a book, um, someone was talking about some of the important things that, sort of, turning points in international business that people may not have clocked on to, and one of them, um, which stuck with me was the standardization of shipping containers.

[00:40:48] Tony: So that productivity took a huge leap forward when shipping containers all came in the same size, right? Because you think about it, you need one set of cranes to take it off the boat. A semi trailer can take one or two or however many on the back.

[00:41:04] Tony: They can go from a semi trailer onto the back of a flatbed

[00:41:07] Tony: rail. Truck they can be put on the back of a flatbed truck and taken to a home or a factory, whatever. And that sort of, you know, went from being, I, I’ve got to only use this company ’cause my. Supply chain is configured to that size to, it’s like standard user interface across the whole of the logistics business around the world.

[00:41:31] Tony: And the reason why I call that one out is because the pallet business is fairly similar. If you think about a pallet, it’s just a, you know, square bit of wood that you can put a fork, you can put a forklift under and move things around. You know, boxes or whatever. Cargo goes on top, forms a cube, shrink wrap it, put it on a lorry, then a truck, then a ship, then a plane, then a rail, you know, rail car.

[00:41:54] Tony: And it’s very ubiquitous. And Shep were good at pioneering that. And they had a great business model because they rented all these pallets. So they were, they’re really cheap to produce and they’re universally interchangeable. So they’re all the same size. And you didn’t really, you know, when I was running warehouses, it didn’t really worry me that I didn’t have to sort of count how many pallets went out the door and how many pallets came in.

[00:42:20] Tony: I just sort of knew that there was always, always pallets in circulation and I was going to be charged a rental each month. And every now and then I’d do an audit and send back some of the bad ones, the broken. So it’s a really good business because they build the pallet once it stays in circulation for years and years and years and they keep renting it out.

[00:42:36] Tony: And it’s kind of like the original software as a service business if you think about how all those dot com businesses in the last couple of years have taken off. They’re low investment, high return businesses. And this is going way back into the sort of 50s or 60s when this started. So Brambles was a really strong company on the ASX.

[00:42:59] Tony: Great history, I did a bit of research into that today as well. So listed on the ASX back in 1954. Um, the company back then was called W. E. Brambles and Sons, and it was a, uh, a transport company back then. I think Mr. Brambles originally was a butcher in Newcastle, and then, um, when they listed they moved to Sydney.

[00:43:22] Tony: Soon after listing, they changed their name to Brambles, and They bought the Commonwealth Handling Equipment Pool from the Australian government, and those initials spell out CHEP, C H E P, and that’s pretty much what’s stenciled on the, on the side of all these pallets, and the business has been going since then, so originally They diversified based on the cash flow coming out of the chip business into waste disposal, eventually the clean away business, armored cars, which they branded Brinks.

[00:44:00] Tony: They operated the Manly Ferries in Sydney. They had a company that supplied offshore oil platforms. Um, they, uh, in 1975, they expanded CHIP overseas to the UK. In 1984, they purchased Grace Removals, may have been Grace Brothers Removals. In 88, they bought a company called Group C A I B, the largest private rail wagon operator in Europe.

[00:44:27] Tony: Um, and then the history kind of took a turn and they started divesting a lot of those companies. So, in 96, Bramble’s Transport was sold to Toll Holdings. In 2000, Bramble sold its zero retainer container business to a company called Iwa, E-R-M-E-W-A. And they sold the armored car business Brinks to Chubb.

[00:44:47] Tony: Um, in two thou in the two thousands, they divested United Transport to Patrick Corp. They had a railway leasing division. They divested, um, they divested bramble shipping to toll cleanaway to KKR, Cleanaway UK to Veolia. Um, and in 2016. They combined their two separate listings. They had a listing in the UK and a listing in Australia, and they merged as Brambles on the ASX.

[00:45:14] Tony: 2013, they spun off the recall storage business. So, the history is Lots of expansion, good underlying business, which threw off lots of cash flow, allowing the company to expand. I guess some battles with debts, probably a succinct way of putting it, and then lots of divestments. So the classic sort of conglomerate life cycle.

[00:45:37] Tony: Um, now the business is focused on the international CHEP pallet business. So it’s gone back to its core and, uh, it’s, it’s successful. So The last results were good. I’m talking about FY23, um, and one of the things that they highlighted in those results is that supply chains are freeing up again post COVID.

[00:45:56] Tony: So, you know, back in COVID and post COVID times, supply chains were constrained. A lot of companies started stocking up. On local, um, inventory rather than trading, uh, which hurt the Shep business, um, one of the things they called out in their, uh, their annual results was that for the first time in a long time, they actually had pellets being returned from the pool, excess pellets that weren’t needed to be in circulation because there wasn’t as much supply chain transport going on post COVID.

[00:46:27] Tony: And, um, They were able to see just how many of their pallets were actually damaged, and so they’re taking a lot of time now to invest in better analytics to track the pallet pool to work out, you know, how many pallets are damaged, how can they get them to customers quicker, how can they be replaced. I think for a long time there was even some question Shep knew how many.

[00:46:50] Tony: Pallets were actually in circulation. So they’re spending a bit on IT. They’re trying things like chips in pallets so they can be tracked. They claim to be using AI to get better information about the pallet pool. That seems to be a bit of a buzzword in management presentations at the moment, but I’ll take them on face value.

[00:47:12] Tony: But overall, uh, You know, the business is rebounding post COVID. They grew sales by 10 percent last year and earnings by 15%, so it’s coming good. Um, the numbers, uh, this company’s large, so it has an ADT so it’s suitable for all of our listeners. Uh, the share price for this analysis was 1364, which is just above the sell line, so this may go off the buy list.

[00:47:38] Tony: Quickly, um, that share price is, is less than consensus, um, target, but quite a long way above IB1 and IB2, and also a long way above net equity per share, which is 3. 11. So even though it’s on our buy list, it’s not going to be a high value stock, but it is throwing off lots of operating cashflow. Stock Doctor, however, call this a star growth stock, uh, and they rate it Um, their financial health is being strong and recovering, and of course, I like stocks that are recovering, and they score 2 on their checklist.

[00:48:14] Tony: Yields only 2. 9%, so we can’t score it for that. For people who are interested, ROE is 25%, so quite high, and again, that’s at the top. That’s the benefit of having a low capital intensive business that the rental side provides the operating cash flow and there’s not much capex spend once the pool’s established.

[00:48:33] Tony: PE is still reasonably high. It’s 19. 5 times, but it’s definitely not the highest in the last three years. I think it’s the second lowest, so we can’t score it on that, but it’s, it’s low, I guess, traditionally. 3 times, so again, that’s very strong, but, and it’s just below our cutoff of seven, so, um, again, you know, if people are interested in getting quick, it may make them off the buy list soon.

[00:48:59] Tony: And it is actually the lowest stock on our buy list. Um, forecast growth is 13%, so growth over PE is only 0. 66, because the PE is reasonably high, so we can’t score it on that. Uh, there would have been an underfounder at some stage, but Not now, so that the Bramble’s boys or girls have left. Um, there’s no, uh, equity took a bit of a hit during the COVID time, so we can’t score it for consistently increasing equity.

[00:49:26] Tony: But all in all, a quality score of 10 out of 16, 63%, and a QAV score of 0. 10, so bottom of the buy list. But I never expected to see Bramble’s come on our buy list, because it’s always had that sort of, um, it’s always been in the good books of most analysts. So, uh, I guess we’re getting it coming out of COVID

[00:49:42] Tony: as it turns around.

[00:49:45] Cameron: Tony. I love learning about businesses like this. Like, I never think about pallets as a business, but I was reading this article,

[00:49:56] Cameron: um, An interview with, um, a guy called Juan Jose Freo, Bramble’s Global Head of Sustainability. And this article says, it calls itself the invisible backbone of the global supply chain.

[00:50:10] Cameron: Invisible is right. You’ve probably never heard of CHEP, the shipping and logistics arm of Australian giant Bramble’s. Chep’s Bread and Butter is reusable packaging equipment, providing crates, pallets, and boxes to companies around the world to ship their stuff. If you’re a manufacturer, you manufacture any kind of consumer goods, and you want to send it through the value chain to a retailer, you need a piece of packaging.

[00:50:31] Cameron: Specifically, you need a pallet, says Juan. The humble pallet is very important, because without pallets, things just don’t move. And, you know, makes perfect sense. You see them everywhere and you just, like, don’t notice them, right? It’s just that thing. They’re simple little wooden crates and you go, okay, you know, pallets, big deal.

[00:50:54] Cameron: But you think about it, without those, to move shit around quickly, forklift, pick it up, move it into a shipping

[00:50:59] Cameron: container, off a truck, into a warehouse,

[00:51:04] Tony: Yep. You can stack them. You can, you can fill a container. Yeah. The focus wouldn’t work without a standardized. Pallet, yeah, and invented back in the 40s or 50s, um, grew out of an Australian government pool. So, the idea’s been around for a long time, and I guess, I don’t know how standard it was in other countries, but CHEP certainly has standardized the world.

[00:51:26] Tony: And I think it only has, well, last time, you know, going back a couple of decades when I was running warehouses, but it was only CHEP and LOSCAM, so it’s only ever had one big competitor, and they both adopt the same dimension, so

[00:51:40] Tony: they’re interchangeable and ubiquitous, really.

[00:51:42] Cameron: This says CHEP is one of the largest pallet businesses in the world, and at any given moment it will have 300 million packaging units on the move. Wow.

[00:51:55] Tony: And they’re made of timber and they called out one of the issues for them in the last couple of years has been the price of lumber has increased and fuels up, so because they still have to deliver the pallets to companies, um, and they’re receding now, so that’s going to help them. But yeah, I don’t know what it costs to build a pallet, but it’s, you know, basically a dozen pieces of wood, um, which get nailed together and then it gets rented for eternity.

[00:52:18] Tony: It’s just amazing. It’s an amazing

[00:52:20] Tony: business.

[00:52:20] Cameron: business. Yeah. I remember, it reminds me a little bit of the book I read 30 years ago, um, by Harvey McPay, I think, Swim With The Sharks, Without Getting Eaten Alive, or something like that, but he’s an American businessman who I don’t know, like in the sixties or the early seventies or something was looking for a business, he’s a bit like Buffett, right?

[00:52:46] Cameron: He was looking for a cash business to buy that was undervalued. And he bought this business that made, uh, let, um, envelopes. An envelope business is like, everyone needs envelopes. They’re one use items. You know, you, you, you buy it, you mail it, it gets thrown in the bin. And he’s like, it’s not

[00:53:08] Cameron: glamorous, it’s not sexy. But at the time it was just like this phenomenal cash cow business for him that was just churning out money. Um, just again, one of those simple things that at least back then, I’m not sure if it’s still true today, but back then everyone, every business, everybody used envelopes all every day. And, um. You know, it was just like a stock standard thing and, and you just, it’s one of those things you don’t think about.

[00:53:37] Cameron: It’s not sexy, it’s not glamorous, but it was a solid little business.

[00:53:42] Tony: Yeah. No, definitely. Again, focusing on the cash flow,

[00:53:45] Tony: which is important.

[00:53:46] Cameron: All right. Brambles, BXB. What else have we got to talk about? Tony, got another question.

[00:53:57] Tony: Yeah,

[00:53:58] Cameron: done?

[00:54:00] Tony: I’m done?

[00:54:00] Tony: Yep. You’ve got a Question

[00:54:01] Cameron: Question from Jeff.

[00:54:03] Cameron: Uh, he said, regarding the discussion on last week’s pod regarding average true range as a possible sell signal. Stock Doctor have a basic explanation and offer it as one of the studies you can add to a chart, so no need to do any math yourself. It’s also used by Jason McIntosh, motion trader, who also offers a subscription service for buy tips and process, and his philosophy seems similar to TK’s.

[00:54:28] Cameron: Have you or ever TK looked into his work? Might be a great guest. I think I have, actually. I think I’ve read about him before. Don’t think I’ve reached out to him, though. Jason uses ATR as a sell signal set at 30 days and a multiplier of 10. This way, he says it gives a share price room to move, but protects some profits against a share price fall, compared to traders who often use 21 days and a multiplier of 3 so much tighter.

[00:54:57] Cameron: Then he links us to a Jason McIntosh video where he talks about it. I’ve been playing with it. To use in cases where the three point trend line sell line is very low. For example, DUR, the brettolator sell price is 53 cents and using this I would lose all profit. However, an ATR with a period of 30 days and a multiplier of 10, the sell price is 1.

[00:55:20] Cameron: 03. Of course, you can change the multiplier to make the sell line tighter or looser. Love to hear TK’s thoughts. Regards, Jeff. Also love the show and QAV, thanks for everything. Has made a huge difference to my investing. And then he sent us a screenshot of DUR with an ATR sell line from Stock Doctor.

[00:55:40] Cameron: Thanks Jeff. Tony, ATR, we talked about it last week. We talked about Renko. What do you think about this Macintosh multiplier stuff?

[00:55:53] Tony: Yeah, I mean, I had a look at Jason McIntosh a long time ago, the motion trader, um, and I briefly went into it this morning and I guess that I haven’t been able to see what the CAGR returns are. from, you know, his, his system. So that’s, um, I hope, hopefully they’re available on the website. So I can’t really compare it.

[00:56:11] Tony: That’s always my basic test for a system. Do they have a long term track record? What is it? Is it better or worse than what we’re doing? So I can’t, I can’t compare it to that. Um, I’m not saying it’s a bad system. It’s probably a very good one. And I, you know, I think any of these systems that use sentiment are important, whether it’s three point trend lines or ATRs or Um, moving averages or whatever.

[00:56:36] Tony: So that’s my sort of general comment on that. Happy to get Jason on and talk about it. Sounds like an interesting person to have on for an interview. Um, so I had a look at the DUR example and in the bread loader and this gets back to Jeff’s right, this gets back to the question that kept popping up very QAV is people would say The sell line’s very low.

[00:56:58] Tony: I’ve bought Fortescue, Mabels Group or whatever. The sell line’s very low. I want to lock in my profits. And then someone came up with the idea of a hug line. So rather than using the lowest two points on the graph, they wanted to use the lowest two points of a more recent time period so they could get out on some kind of sentiment downturn.

[00:57:15] Tony: And you can certainly do that with the DUR graph if you have a look at it. Um, you know, very briefly it sort of goes along for a while and then it has a huge upturn. Um. And it’s starting to be a bit of an upturned U, and if you use the bread later, the sell line is well below where the share price is now, because it’s using low points from that sort of flat period before the share price took off, but if you wanted to use the two lowest points from when that sell, that share price took off, you could draw another sell line and do that, so I guess my break.

[00:57:48] Tony: My immediate reaction would be to do something like that and to research that, the Hugline idea, to hug the current trend was the concept, rather than to look at ATRs. I’m not saying ATRs don’t work and, you know, if Jeff uses them, we’d love to know some other examples and some real world applications for it.

[00:58:08] Tony: But yeah, it hasn’t worked for me with Renko. I think Renko is based on ATR, so I’m not Gonna look at doing more work on this, but I’m happy to have Jason on and talk about

[00:58:19] Tony: it.

[00:58:19] Cameron: hmm. Mm. All right. I’ll dig him up, see if I can reach out to him. I mean, I haven’t done, you know, when I did that sell analysis thing. I didn’t, um, go into detail to see how many times in the last few years I’ve bought something and then ridden, it’s gone up and then ridden it all the way back down to a low sell line.

[00:58:44] Cameron: Um, it’d be interesting. I mean, I, I can think of one or two instances where I’ve seen that happen, but not many. Like it seems to be one of those existential fears that QAV members have, but it, it, I mean, it’s happened with Myer once. I recall Myer was up like 60 percent and then it came all the way back.

[00:59:07] Tony: Yeah. Look, it’s heartbreaking when it happens. It happened to me with Qantas last year. So, uh, I think that was going along really nicely for me. And then, um, it, it crashed with all the problems it had and now enjoys leaving and all, et cetera, et cetera, last year, back, back down to, you know, what I paid for it or maybe slightly below.

[00:59:25] Tony: But if you recall, we always had the reverse example of stocks like Fortescue Metals Group, which went up, came back a little bit and then went up two or three fold from there. So you can sell out

[00:59:35] Tony: too early if you set your stop losses too close as Well,

[00:59:38] Cameron: Well, DUR is an interesting example, right? So, uh, looking at the bread later, the end of August, 2023, it was trading at 1. 38. Then it slid, uh, in October down to 1. 18, and then it bounced back and went up to 1. 60. Come back a little bit since then, it’s now at 1. 54, but it was one of those ones that had a little bit of a hiccup there if we’d been You know, I don’t know, doing a hug line or something.

[01:00:11] Cameron: We might’ve sold it

[01:00:12] Tony: Mm hmm.

[01:00:13] Cameron: we would’ve bought back in. Maybe we wouldn’t. I don’t know. You never know, depending on how full the portfolio was and those sorts of things. But it bounced back up. Um, uh, you know, so yeah.

[01:00:27] Tony: Again, a classic example, isn’t

[01:00:29] Tony: it?

[01:00:29] Cameron: Yeah. Well, yes, but yeah. How many times does it work and how many times does it doesn’t work? I mean, I’d have to do some analysis on it and see.

[01:00:39] Tony: Yeah, same.

[01:00:42] Cameron: And now that I’m a coding genius, I could probably knock that out. And I love, I gotta, I gotta do shouts out. I’ve had QAV QAV members in the last couple of weeks, reach out to me about using GPT to code stuff. And I know a lot of people are starting to experiment with it. Um, Somebody asked me to send them like all of the buy lists from 2023 and asked if I could collate them all into a single list.

[01:01:09] Cameron: I said, I don’t have them all on a list. And he said, well, I could probably use GPT to write a script that would collate them all for me, merge them all together. I said, yeah, probably man, not that hard at all. So I

[01:01:19] Tony: What, didn’t I,

[01:01:20] Cameron: are doing it.

[01:01:21] Tony: didn’t I, send you a collation of the buy list for the last three

[01:01:25] Cameron: Not for last year though, there was like 22, yeah.

[01:01:28] Tony: yeah, yeah, right,

[01:01:29] Cameron: guy who asked for that wanted if, wanted the same thing for 23, and I could have done it, but it would have

[01:01:35] Tony: we didn’t have it.

[01:01:35] Cameron: half an hour to figure it out. I figured

[01:01:38] Cameron: he could do that. Um, but, uh, yeah, I’ll, I’ll see if I can, um, do some more analysis on, um, the stocks that have gone up and then fallen back to a very low 3PTL line at some point.

[01:01:55] Tony: yeah, thanks. That’d be great to know.

[01:01:56] Cameron: But good stuff. Thank you for,

[01:01:58] Cameron: um, bringing all of that, uh, information to our attention. Jeff, well, that’s, uh, that’s the end of the questions for this week. TK, we’re into after hours. Uh, you sold a horse.

[01:02:13] Tony: Yes, at the Magic Millions on Saturday, well on Friday actually, Friday night. Yes, we had a, one of the horses I bred, I don’t own 100 percent of it, um, but it sold well. We were a little bit worried because we were one of the last, um, horses to go through the ring and sometimes that can work against you because everyone’s spent their budget and bought other things earlier, but no, we got a good price for it.

[01:02:35] Tony: We were, we were talking on Friday with the managing, um, partner of the ownership group and he said, Oh, look, you know, we’re not getting much interest in this. I think we’re going to need to drop our reserve to 90 grand. And we all agreed like, okay, we thought it would, that would, you know, get us out, um, make a little profit, but not, not a great profit.

[01:02:57] Tony: And anyway, the horse sold for 160.

[01:02:59] Tony: So we were all very happy. with that.

[01:03:01] Cameron: Fantastic. Well, I have no idea what horses cost and what they’re worth. So you probably made a good profit out of that by the sounds of it. And, and why did it go for 70 grand more than your reserve? Like, why was it

[01:03:15] Tony: Well, I don’t know. I don’t know. Yeah. I don’t know what the vagaries are. There was, um, you know, we get sales reports would say we had all these people come and have a look. And I think the person who bought it had been back a number of times to have a look at it. And there was two people in that camp. So that could have just been the market forces, but we were quite worried that, um, one of those two would have already spent their budget by sort of four o’clock on Friday afternoon when it sold,

[01:03:41] Tony: but it looks like it didn’t

[01:03:42] Tony: happen.

[01:03:42] Tony: So that’s good.

[01:03:43] Cameron: Like how many cans of dog food can you get out of a single horse? Well you’re selling it obviously because it’s no good on the track.

[01:03:54] Tony: no, no, no, not at all. That’s our business is to sell racehorses, usually two trainers to them, race them,

[01:04:00] Cameron: Oh, I thought you raced them yourself and made all the

[01:04:03] Tony: We do so that, yeah. So the other half of the business is we try and race fillies that if we get them to a stage where they’re going to, um, they have some residual value,

[01:04:13] Tony: we can then breed

[01:04:14] Tony: from them.

[01:04:14] Cameron: yeah,

[01:04:15] Cameron: But in some cases

[01:04:17] Tony: business side, like if you talk to the tax office, for us to call the business, you’ve got to be a breeder.

[01:04:23] Tony: that breeds racehorses and then sells them to people. That’s the business side of it.

[01:04:28] Cameron: not just racing them.

[01:04:30] Tony: No, no,

[01:04:32] Tony: the backbone of the business is the breeding side.

[01:04:34] Cameron: So you breed them and then sell them to people who want to race them.

[01:04:40] Tony: Correct.

[01:04:40] Tony: Yes. And hopefully they do a good job and then we can say that the, you know, the next horse that we breed out of the same mare will sell well as

[01:04:50] Tony: well. So that’s the idea.

[01:04:51] Cameron: Right. Yeah, right. Speaking of breeding animals, so we’ve, um, uh, a friend has a greyhound that we’ve dog sat a couple of times in the last couple of weeks when they go away on weekends. And it did race for a while, wasn’t very good. So. got sold off and she bought it and it’s a beautiful

[01:05:12] Cameron: dog. But we found out that her father, the dog’s father, was, is, the, not only the highest ever winning greyhound in history I think, maybe in Australian history, maybe ever, called Fernando Um, Fernando Male, I think, no, Bale, Fernando Bale, I think he won one and a half million dollars in prize money when he was racing, but his offspring have won over a hundred million dollars,

[01:05:45] Tony: Wow.

[01:05:46] Cameron: and his sperm goes for nine thousand dollars a shot, um, apparently.

[01:05:55] Cameron: So anyway, this dog, greyhounds are amazing, like I’m not a Animal person. Don’t even like humans very much, but, uh, they, this is a really chill dog. It just lies around all day,

[01:06:08] Tony: Oh, yeah. They sleep. 23 hours a day,

[01:06:10] Cameron: Yeah. And really just comes up and wraps its head around you. Just like gives you a little doggy hug and then just goes and lies down and wants to do nothing.

[01:06:19] Cameron: Like, you do wonder what’s the point, um, doesn’t

[01:06:23] Tony: Yeah.

[01:06:23] Cameron: doesn’t, doesn’t want to go for a walk. You’ll get, go to the

[01:06:25] Cameron: park, doesn’t want to do it, doesn’t want to get out of the car, doesn’t want to move. Like, laziest bloody dogs, but sweet natured. Um, you watched Boy Swallows Universe, set in 70s Brisbane, 80s

[01:06:41] Tony: 80s Brisbane. Yeah. Yeah. Loved it. Yeah. Yes, very, very good. Um, it’ll be, I think it’ll be a classic Australian production with the usual suspects, Brian Brown and, um, Simon Baker and etc, etc. I think Jocelyn Morehouse directed. Uh, I love the book. I love the series. My only criticism is it has a bit of a Hollywood ending.

[01:07:06] Tony: It should have stopped

[01:07:06] Tony: one episode earlier. But,

[01:07:09] Cameron: Before he actually swallowed the universe, like that was too

[01:07:12] Tony: to give it away, but, um, you know, there’s a kind of Crazy thing, which I’m sure would never happen in Brisbane about, um, parts, people being, you know, having their body parts taken off them and reused and all that kind of stuff.

[01:07:28] Tony: So,

[01:07:29] Tony: um, yeah, anyway,

[01:07:31] Cameron: I don’t know.

[01:07:32] Tony: didn’t have to go that far. Because it’s a great, it’s a great story about growing up in Darra, in Brisbane.

[01:07:38] Tony: And, uh, I remember all those times well.

[01:07:41] Cameron: Yeah.

[01:07:42] Tony: And they shot it up there, so like, it’s shot in lovely old Queenslanders. That must have spent a bomb on it though, because look, everyone’s driving Tiranas and Ford Lasers and, you know, old buses and things.

[01:07:55] Tony: It would have been a

[01:07:56] Tony: big production cost.

[01:07:57] Cameron: Wow. Oh, good stuff. Well, I look forward to, uh, checking it out at some point. It’s got a pretty good

[01:08:04] Tony: Yeah, okay.

[01:08:07] Cameron: It’s got an 10, which is, uh, you know, better than our documentary. So, you know, that’s saying

[01:08:15] Tony: that’s about where I’d rate it. But I mean, I just, I guess it got the nostalgia of

[01:08:19] Tony: Brisbane in the 80s there for me too.

[01:08:22] Cameron: And you watch Killers of the Flower Moon. I haven’t seen that yet. Scorsese’s latest. What did you think?

[01:08:29] Tony: Well, we haven’t quite finished. It’s about three and a half hours long. So we’re about two and a half hours through it. Yeah. It’s um, I could Scorsese and DiCaprio and De Niro.

[01:08:38] Tony: So it’s fabulous acting and really, really sumptuous. It’s a bit like, uh, once upon a time in America, it’s, it’s quite lengthy,

[01:08:53] Tony: um, but yeah, I’m liking it. I’m liking it.

[01:08:56] Cameron: Did you like the Irishman?

[01:08:59] Tony: I did again. I didn’t like the ending. Went on a bit too far, I thought, so,

[01:09:03] Tony: um, but, But yeah, I did.

[01:09:06] Cameron: But it went on too far.

[01:09:08] Tony: wouldn’t say it was, I wouldn’t say it was as good as

[01:09:10] Tony: the Irishman. But it’s

[01:09:13] Cameron: A lot of people complained about how long it was. And I was like, dude, you put De Niro, Pacino, Pesci together on screen and Harvey Keitel, you know, and a bit of it, but make it 20 hours long. I mean, come on,

[01:09:26] Tony: Yeah, yeah,

[01:09:27] Cameron: is your last chance to see these guys

[01:09:29] Cameron: possibly ever. Like, I mean, sit down, shut the fuck up and watch the, watch what they have to give you.

[01:09:35] Cameron: Like, how dare you complain about it? That’s just me. I

[01:09:40] Tony: I’m not complaining. I’m just, I’m just letting people, people know that’s what you’re getting in

[01:09:43] Cameron: people did complain about Irishman and the length and all that kind of stuff. I, I don’t know, I don’t get people to complain about length. Getting back to Max Planck. Uh, so many jokes we could make. I look forward to seeing that.

[01:09:59] Cameron: Well, we’re, we’re watching, uh, uh, the. The latest in our Bollywood series. We’ve watched, they’re all three hours long. Bollywood films are always at least three hours long. And two and a half of that is songs and dances.

[01:10:15] Cameron: We’re watching another, it’s another 2023 film starting Shahrukh Khan. It’s called Patan.

[01:10:22] Cameron: And it’s kind of Mission Impossible meets James Bond meets MTV. Uh, you know, big dance numbers, voluptuous dance numbers in it, but I mean, man, like it’s over the top, like the action stuff is just crazy over the top, but Shah Rukh Khan is, he was 57 when he made this, um, and his body is, you know, Brad Pitt’s body in Fight Club.

[01:10:53] Cameron: Like, like the, the standard in Hollywood now for the most, you know, the perfectly shaped cut body Shahan has that body, but better. And he’s 57, 58 and like he was never that guy. Like he’s always been trimmed. He was never a hugely built guy in the nineties and the two thousands. Um, but as he’s getting older, he is.

[01:11:20] Cameron: Beefing up and he looks insane. Like he takes his shirt off every now and again. You’re like, Oh, like what? It’s insane body he’s got anyway.

[01:11:33] Tony: It’s not a body double? You’re pretty sure

[01:11:35] Tony: it’s

[01:11:35] Cameron: Oh no. It’s it’s his. Yeah. Yeah. I’ve looked it up and his trainer and the whole thing. It’s like a. Chris Hemsworth level transformation, you know, it’s, these, these trainers now with the supplements and the training and the diet, they just have it down to a science.

[01:11:50] Cameron: I mean, it must take a ton of work as well, but at his age, it’s insane how he’s transformed his body. Anyway, Chrissy enjoyed that bit. Um, good film, like we, and we just, for the Bollywood, I don’t know if there’s any, I’ve converted anyone to Bollywood yet, like, but you gotta watch, um, like the classic, the classic Shah Rukh Khan films, uh, from the 90s, uh, um, DDLJ is like the biggest one I’ve talked about, uh, and then he did, uh, Kuchi Kuchi, Kuchi Kuchi.

[01:12:25] Cameron: Which is the second one. Uh, uh, and then the third one is Kabi Kushi Kabi Gum, which we just watched. Again, I think that was like 98, 3 hours long, 100 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes. Um, just, yeah, I mean, these films are just great, man. And bonkers. Absolutely bonkers. And it’s all, they’re all about, You know, the young lovers who, uh, can’t be together because the parents are arranging marriages with other people.

[01:12:54] Cameron: And so they run off and the parents are angry, but they love their elders. And they, you know, there’s all these, you know, there’s all the, the Hindu religious ceremonies and the dances and the elders and the modern kids. It’s just, it’s like days of our lives, soap operary, dance numbers, and just bonkers over the top.

[01:13:15] Cameron: Anyway, we’ve enjoyed that. Um, uh, have you watched, speaking of Joe Pesci, have you watched Bupkis, heard about Bupkis?

[01:13:26] Tony: You told me about that

[01:13:27] Cameron: Did I? Oh man, we watched another

[01:13:28] Cameron: episode of that So great. Um, Renfield we watched this week.

[01:13:35] Tony: Yeah.

[01:13:35] Tony: Watch that too. Didn’t, didn’t like it.

[01:13:38] Cameron: It wasn’t great, but Nicolas Cage was

[01:13:41] Tony: Nicholas Cage. He was fantastic.

[01:13:43] Cameron: Yeah, the film

[01:13:45] Tony: Again, talk about a 60 year old with a, you know, with a,

[01:13:47] Tony: good body and, um,

[01:13:50] Cameron: it was just like he just eats up every second he’s on the screen, doesn’t he? And quite literally, because he’s eating people as Dracula, but he just, oh, man, like the film, yeah, the film wasn’t great. Um, I don’t know what happened, but, um, It, but he, Nicholas Cage, Oh, just so much fun to watch as always.

[01:14:17] Tony: Oh, yeah. he was the

[01:14:19] Tony: star turner for

[01:14:20] Cameron: Oh, he just like, he’s doing his whole F. W. Murnau’s Nosferatu impression and his intensity in his eyebrows and the whole thing. That’s fantastic. Um,

[01:14:33] Tony: but that was like the thing, the thing I liked about it, though, was he actually think like, after a while, I’m going, hang on, is Nicolas Cage actually a vampire? It’s like, because he’s just like, he just had so much natural charisma and, and, you know, maybe I don’t know much about vampire lore, but brought so much to it about, you know, how he’s going to rule the world and how he had ruled the world for a long time.

[01:14:56] Tony: And,

[01:14:57] Tony: And yeah, it was just amazing.

[01:14:59] Cameron: fantastic. And I, I know I’ve talked a bit before, but have you, you’ve, have you seen vampires kiss?

[01:15:05] Tony: Yes.

[01:15:05] Cameron: Uh, I mean, that to me is still one of my favorite films when he thinks he’s a vampire.

[01:15:14] Cameron: He’s really just insane, but

[01:15:17] Tony: I saw him, interview because he’s promoting a new movie,

[01:15:19] Tony: which looks interesting too, um, where he pops up in people’s

[01:15:22] Cameron: dreams, Yeah. Yeah.

[01:15:25] Tony: but he, um, he rated his five best scripts that he’s acted in and

[01:15:28] Tony: Vampire’s Kiss was in there as well.

[01:15:30] Cameron: It’s fantastic. Like I saw that when I was, uh, 20 or something. And I just, and it’s one of those films that no one I know apart from my friend in Melbourne, who’s the CEO of, um, uh, whatever the bus business is down there, Michael Seward’s. Skybus. Yeah. I think Michael was the person who showed it to me when I was 20 and like, he was like, dude, you’ve got to see this.

[01:15:51] Cameron: It’s like the greatest thing ever.

[01:15:52] Tony: ha ha. Ha

[01:15:54] Cameron: I know he loves it, but everyone else I’ve ever shown it to are like, what is happening? This is insane. I’m like, yes.

[01:16:02] Tony: ha. Ha ha ha. Ha ha ha. Ha

[01:16:03] Tony: ha ha. I love Wild at Heart. That was still my, that was my favorite Nicolas

[01:16:07] Cameron: Wild At Heart. Yeah, that’s up there too, man. I just

[01:16:10] Tony: Laura Dern.

[01:16:11] Cameron: that so much. And Red Rock West. Loved Red Rock West. I mean, I love everything Nicholas Cade.

[01:16:18] Cameron: Moonstruck. I love him in Moonstruck. I mean,

[01:16:20] Tony: mm. Okay.

[01:16:23] Cameron: THIS HAND! THIS

[01:16:25] Tony: Yeah.

[01:16:26] Cameron: HAND!

[01:16:29] Cameron: HE STILL HAS HIS HAND! Anyway, um, Quentin Tarantino’s podcast. I know we’ve talked about it before, the Video Archives podcast. Um, he did an episode, which I’d missed. I think it was back in May. I’d just been listening to it. Where at the beginning, it’s him and um, um, Roger Avery.

[01:16:51] Cameron: Uh, do the podcast, yeah, Roger was his producer on Reservoir Dogs and Pulp Fiction, they worked at Video Archives together, they started off their careers, and then Roger went on to become a director in his own right. Um, they do this podcast, and in this episode in May, they start off the episode going, look, we had a plan for this episode, but we, we’ve had a, we had, there was some news that broke last night, and we’ve had to change our plans.

[01:17:15] Cameron: Um, that great television star of the 70s, Rick Dalton passed away last night at his home in Maui, Hawaii, um, with his wife by his side, Francesca Dalton. And so they do a, they do a whole like hour and a half long obit on Rick Dalton, obviously for people who don’t know the character played by. Leonardo DiCaprio, once upon a time in Hollywood,

[01:17:46] Cameron: and he, they do it completely straight.

[01:17:49] Cameron: Roger’s daughter is also, um, one of the co hosts and they’re reading interviews that Rick Dalton did in movie magazines and talking about the, the things he missed out on and, and the shows that he made and doing this full retrospective of his career. Doing it absolutely, totally straight and seriously, and it’s just fantastic.

[01:18:12] Cameron: It’s hilarious, and they’re talking about the 38 Fists of McCluskey, and the Fireman sequels, and how they prefer Fireman 2 to the original Fireman that he did, and who the director was, and they’re quite, you know, they’re throwing in

[01:18:26] Cameron: Real directors from the seventies and other actors and writers and producers and mixing it all in.

[01:18:32] Cameron: It’s just like Tarantino, man. He’s just so great. He takes this stuff seriously. Um, anyway, I highly recommend listening to

[01:18:41] Tony: a, there’s a documentary on one of the streaming services about his movies, QT8, must have been made a few years ago, but there’s a great one in there about, um, Jackie Brown

[01:18:53] Tony: where

[01:18:53] Cameron: Oh Yeah.

[01:18:54] Tony: he’s, he’s talking about Robert De Niro. And he’s going, he’s going, Nero wasn’t sure if he was going to sign up and play the part.

[01:19:01] Tony: He asked me, what kind of shoes does my character wear? And I said, well, Bob, you’re just out of jail, right? So you’ve got good black dress shoes, they’re a bit old and scuffed, and the toe’s been bent up because they put it in the paper bag and put it in the locker when you went in and they took it out and now the toe’s all bent up.

[01:19:18] Tony: And then Nero went, hmm, yeah, okay, I’ll do it.

[01:19:23] Cameron: Love it.

[01:19:25] Cameron: I mean, just testing that Quentin had thought through this character’s backstory, right? That he knew what he was doing, you know? If the director couldn’t answer that question, then the director hadn’t thought through the character deeply enough. Yeah, love it. Um, and then apart from Max Planck, I’ve been, I’ve dug back into a book I haven’t picked up for a long time.

[01:19:50] Cameron: Robert Fisk, Great War for Civilization. Do you ever read any of Robert Fisk’s stuff?

[01:19:57] Tony: No, I can’t say I

[01:19:58] Tony: did.

[01:19:59] Cameron: Oh man, this is one of the greats. He was an Irish slash English, um, journalist who lived in the Middle East for 30 years, was, uh, wrote for the Independent for like 30 years, lived in Beirut. and covered the Middle East, highly critical of the United States and the United Kingdom’s foreign policy in the Middle East, and was on the front lines of all of the wars and Lebanon, Israel, you know, Iraq, Afghanistan, reporting from them.

[01:20:31] Cameron: Passed away in 2020, uh, but this book came out in the 2000s. I’ve got a Like a hardcover version of it, I’m in my library downstairs still, but I’ve been reading the ebook version, just his ability to write, like he’s just, it’s, it’s like half memoir of his life living in the Middle East and half just talking about the Middle East, you know, and he calls it the Great War for Civilization, about how this part of the world has been fought over by the, the great powers for, you know, hundreds of years and And, uh, and all of the people’s lives that have been ruined along the way, um, the, the civilians, and who’s just been cannon fodder, um, and, uh, you know, a lot of people that he knew that he’d lost in various wars and journalists and, and, um, you know, just civilians, um, yeah.

[01:21:32] Tony: it up. That sounds

[01:21:32] Cameron: Uh, it’s just, and his, his writing style is, you know, like you feel like you’re in his apartment in Beirut watching everything going on for decades, you

[01:21:40] Tony: Mm hmm.

[01:21:42] Cameron: yeah, I’ve been really enjoying getting back into that. It’s been a long time since I’ve picked him up. Uh, so yeah, uh, that’s

[01:21:51] Tony: Love those first, first person accounts from those sort of frontline reporters. Neil, Neil Davis is one credit hour still probably my favorite. That’s brilliant.

[01:21:59] Cameron: Neil Davis.

[01:22:01] Tony: Australian combat photographer, um, from the Vietnam War.

[01:22:05] Cameron: Oh, okay. Tim Bowden. Oh, uh, so I’ve got one crowded hour. Yeah, okay. I’m that cameraman. Speaking of journalists, John Pilger died, uh, recently.

[01:22:19] Tony: Yeah, I saw that too, yeah.

[01:22:21] Cameron: Um, big fan of John’s work, um, sort of sad a little bit that I never got to talk to him. I think he was on my list of, uh, when I started G’day World back in the day, like he was one of the people I had on the list with Chomsky that I wanted to talk to one day.

[01:22:41] Cameron: Never managed to do it, but, um, you know, he lived a life as a, what would you call it? A, um, rebel journalist? Um,

[01:22:52] Tony: Yeah, contrarian

[01:22:53] Tony: journalist, wasn’t he very much so?

[01:22:55] Cameron: Yeah, critical of Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, big supporter of Julian Assange and Edward Snowden, um, yeah, so, sad loss to the progressive left, losing, Guys like him that have dedicated their life to telling the other side of the story that’s not normally covered in our mainstream media.

[01:23:20] Tony: I think that’s the important take out from Pilgrim. I didn’t always agree with everything he wrote, but it was important to have him there presenting the other side. I agree with a lot of the stuff he wrote, but, um, you know, if he wasn’t

[01:23:33] Tony: there, you only get the mainstream media side of

[01:23:35] Cameron: Yeah. And he did a lot of documentaries as well, uh, really

[01:23:39] Tony: Mm hmm.

[01:23:39] Cameron: powerful documentaries on,

[01:23:43] Cameron: yeah, the stories of the, again, quite often the stories of the people that are impacted by the wars that our governments get involved in. All right. Well, that’s the show for this week. Uh, so next week. You may, uh, not own your apartment anymore.

[01:24:02] Cameron: We don’t know.

[01:24:03] Tony: Oh, yeah, that’d be good if that happens that quickly, but I’m pretty sure I’ll be talking to you from this same office next

[01:24:09] Cameron: Right.

[01:24:10] Tony: Yeah, yeah, I’m heading off to Tasmania for a couple of days at the

[01:24:15] Tony: end of this week and I’m going to play golf at Barn Boogal

[01:24:18] Cameron: Oh, the old barn boogal.

[01:24:19] Tony: good fun.

[01:24:20] Tony: Yeah,

[01:24:21] Cameron: that’s the, that’s time. It’s barn boogal time of the year again, is it?

[01:24:24] Tony: it is. That’s right.

[01:24:27] Cameron: Well, have a great time down there, Tony. And, uh, I’ll talk to you

[01:24:31] Cameron: next week.

[01:24:33] Tony: Ooh,

[01:24:34] Cameron: Have a good week,

[01:24:34] Tony: quite a good week. All right.


QAV 725 – Mr Lazy & Mr Dumb

In this episode of QAV, Cameron and Tony dive into recent market activities, the RBA’s decisions, the Lindy Effect, substantial shareholder announcements, and GrainCorp’s prospects, along with a detailed analysis of Embark Early Education (EVO). Member questions about living off a share portfolio during down years and the differences between value and quality investing are addressed. Additionally, Tony clarifies the calculation of shares on issue for Rio Tinto, emphasizing global figures for earnings per share. In after hours, the duo also covers Mario Puzo’s ‘The Godfather’, Alphonse Mucha, and the Archibald Prize, and discuss the potential and risks of AI, drawing references from science fiction. They wrap up with thoughts on films and books, including ‘Klara and the Sun’.

QAV 724 – Our First U.S. Episode

In this episode of QAV, Cam and Tony explore the U.S. market for the first time, with a brief introduction of Tony and his QAV system of value investing, a discussion of value v growth investing, a discussion of the performance of our U.S. dummy portfolio, a deep dive or ‘Pulled Pork’ segment on Reinsurance Group of America (RGA), and a review of the FY survey results we’ve received so far from club members.


Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *