Welcome to the GET BACK podcast, where Tony and I are just gonna gush about the new Beatles documentary for four hours.
Let’s, let’s rush through this one and go back to watch it again.
I though, this is QAV 448. I decided the title’s Get Back Omicron. Hello, Tony, how are you?
“Hot ‘n wet last year… with a lady but not when you’re in the jungle.” It’s been a crazy week.
It has, hasn’t it? Lots of turmoil in markets.
Depending on who you believe Omicron’s either gonna put us back to square one or It’s nothing. Don’t worry about it, it’s all fine. Yeah. It’s a moving target, I think.
Yeah, who do you believe? Exactly.
Markets have bounced around on the slightest of information. Like yesterday, the market crashed because everyone was worried and then today bounced back up again. Based on what? Nothing really. Hunt came out and said, “oh, we don’t think it’s gonna be so bad based on some early, early indications.” And so the markets bounced. Meanwhile, Powell and the US Fed is telling the US markets that it’s going to have – could have significant consequences on the US economy, Omicron, but here we don’t seem to be too worried about it. Uh, it’s all over the place.
Well, the US market bounced as well. We’re just following them. So they must have ignored Powell.
Yeah well, yes probably.
Wouldn’t be the first time. Yeah. Well, you know, the share market is a Bayesian machine. Right? It takes new information and tries to predict the future with it, work out the probabilities.
Yeah, I would just feel sorry for anyone who’s trying to figure out what to do with their investing by reading the news right now. It’s all over the place. I feel grateful that I can ignore it all and just follow the recipe.
Yeah, follow the rules. Exactly. And it’s, it’s been choppy, and you know, I’ve lost money. I’m sure other people have lost money over the last week or so. But it’ll come back.
Market will settle down once it has full information, and we’ll just move on. At least reminded me to pull out this book called The Obstacle is the Way by Ryan Holiday, which I got, I think last year. It’s a retelling of the stoics, philosophy. Marcus Aurelius in particular, which is one of your guys, I think, from your history podcasts. But just pulled it out, you opened it to almost any page and isn’t applicable quote. And, and The Obstacle is the Way is probably the most important one. He’s basically saying, what Aurelius’ quote is something like, “whenever you come across an obstacle, you can perceive it to be a bad omen or perceive it to the end of all your fortunes, or you can just get on with it and move it. There’s no going around. There’s no going back. It’s just the obstacle is the way.” And that’s what we do with the market.
Or, as Shakespeare said, “nothing is good or bad, but thinking makes it so.”
Correct. Exactly. That’s one of the quotes in here too. Other good ones, “under-under the comb, the tangle and the straight path are the same.” Heraclitus said that. So we’re in a, we’re in a tangle at the moment, but we have a process to untangle it. Here’s the Aurelius quote: “the impediment to action advances action, what stands in the way becomes the way” that’s Marcus Aurelius.
Mind you, Ryan Holiday’s last book, which I read was called Don’t Trust Me, I’m Lying. So you know, I’m not sure if he might be taking the piss with this book.
You’re saying, you’re saying trust Aurelius and the ancient Greeks?
Yeah. Well, you you can go back earlier with the stoics. Yeah, yeah, we, Ray and I on our Alexander show talked a lot about the, where the stoics came from around about 300 and something BCE, 313 BCE. Yes, interesting story. And I posted a thing up on our Facebook group the other day, I just happened to be looking at our Navexa chart since inception. And you know, it was just a good reminder that in the two and a little bit years we’ve been doing QAV and the portfolio, our portfolio has gone down by between 10 and 30% on probably half a dozen occasions over two years. It goes down, then it goes back up, then it goes down, then it goes up a bit more, then it goes down, then it goes up a bit higher than it was last time, then it goes down. then it goes up. And when I look at that after two years I go, “okay, well that’s just how it works. Right? It goes down and it goes back up.” And I realised that you’ve been looking at charts like that for thirty years, and I’ve been doing it for two years.
And you know, been through periods where it goes down and stays down and keeps going down for eighteen months or two years and then comes back up again. So yeah, it’s situation normal. As I said on Phil Muscatello’s show a couple years ago during the COVID cough. Its what markets do.
And after you’ve seen it happen enough times, I would guess you just go “yeah, okay. That’s just no big deal.”
Yeah, well, I mean, it’s just you flick a switch, the markets now turbulent, I have to be vigilant on my alerts on my rule ones and sell when they happen. If I have to buy them back the next day, so be it. That’s, that’s the process. Okay, I’ve burned a bit of commission. That’s how it has to happen. That’s all – the process is all designed to protect us. If we have to spend a bit of insurance money then so be it.
That’s your insurance money, the transaction fee to get out of something when it’s dropping?
Okay, well, that’s good. We’ll speak more on that I’m sure as we go through the show. Just an alert for people, QAV club members in particular who haven’t checked Facebook or read their emails in the last week: there have been some changes to the AF version of the checklist, make sure you go to the club member resources page and download the latest version of that. Check your emails or Facebook for an explanation, I won’t bother going through it. But thank you again to Andrew Flitman for doing a lot of work in the last week to come up with a new version for us, and to Glen Conroy for pointing out one of the problems. Basically it wasn’t – I didn’t have a process in place for updating the checklist with all of the new stocks that were hitting the ASX. I was just doing it manually, which Andrew says is fine, and you know if something pops up and it’s not a new manual data tab, you can just add it in down the bottom. But there’s also a process that he created, you know, you can run it once a month or whatever and it’ll just add all of the new stocks in. I don’t think it’s been a problem because I compare my buyer list with your buyer list every week and nothing’s turned up in yours. There wasn’t in mine. So I don’t think it’s a big issue.
No, it shouldn’t be and I know this recently as well, there has been a lot of new stocks on the ASX, but they haven’t been, you know, Prc/Op CFs less than seven. So, it’s, I can’t think of any that have impacted the buy list at all.
The thing that woke us up to it, that Glen pointed out, was KPT and KIL. For some reason it ended up twice on our manual data tab, both as KPT and as KIL because I hadn’t deleted it as KPT when it turned up as KIL and that sort of threw everything out of the checklist because there was too many stocks in there, so we just deleted KPT and it was fine. Mate of mine, I was talking to a mate of mine last week – old school friend actually from primary school, he runs a building company development business, property development, in the Gold Coast and has done for twenty-odd years. And he was saying, yeah, builders are starting to go broke. And he said word on the street is going to see lot more of them the next six months that are just being squeezed by supply issues. They just, you know, they’ve-they’ve pre sold a whole bunch of stuff and they just can’t get steel, wood, whatever it is they need to build. So he said you’ll see a lot of builders start to go broke in the next six months when they just get squeezed, unless something happens with the supply side of things, I guess, which doesn’t look like it’s happening in a hurry. So yeah, just…
That’s always a bad sign, when that happens.
Yeah. Again, obviously doesn’t change anything for us. We just keep doing what we’re doing.
But just, that was an interesting piece of intel from the ground.
It is. And the sad part is that people will lose their deposits as well.
Yeah, that’s – there’s no insurance when you buy something like that off the plan? Some sort of insurance?
Yeah, there might be these days. There’s always been people caught out in the past, because what tends to happen is the builder goes broke and then pops up, you know, a month later with a different company and they, you can’t sue the old company, it’s been bankrupted. And then whatever government insurance is in place takes three or four years to wind its way through the courts to try and claim from the phoenix company and doesn’t. Yeah, whatever. That process may have been improved since the last recession but hopefully it has but yeah, I wouldn’t be, if that’s the case I wouldn’t be buying anything off the plan at the moment. Or on spec.
It might be too late if people have been doing it when they’ve been flushed with cash.
Yeah. Could be.
Last year. Howard Marks came out with his quarterly memo the other day. Did you ever read of that?
No. I only read Harpo Marx, myself. I haven’t seen Howard Marks.
I don’t read – I listened to the audiobook of Harpo Marx. Yeah.
One of the greatest autobiographies ever. Harpo Speaks!
You told me that, yeah. I still haven’t read that. It’s pretty good though, right? So no, you didn’t read Howard Marks?
No, no I haven’t read Howard – or Zeppo or, or Groucho either.
What about Karl? Read Karl?
“The share market is evil.” No, I haven’t read Karl.
Well he doesn’t, doesn’t say that he says that the forces of capital should be in the hands of the people. But okay. Well, Howard Marks talks a lot about that, actually, in a way he was talking about – among other things – about all of the problems he foresees for America moving forwards.
In terms of its political system, and its capitalist system, how it’s just broken everywhere. He doesn’t sound very optimistic at all about the future of the United States, but does sound very optimistic about the future of China. And he said, He’s for 15 years or so he has sat on the Shanghai American Investment Committee Board or something. So he spent a lot of time in China, he’s got a very close view of what’s going. He said, for all the rhetoric that, you know, came out of the last administration and this administration about China being a threat, and China being that, the amount of American money that’s being sunk into China still by American businesses suggests that American businesses don’t think anything’s gonna happen between the US and China and they’re going to be using all of their influence to make sure nothing happens to their investments in China. So he’s very positive. He said, like, anything could happen, but he’s very, he’s very positive about the role that Xi Jinping is playing, the job that they’re doing over there, and that it’s going to be – continue to be successful. So, interesting.
Good, good to have a balanced opinion. Yeah, wasn’t that – wasn’t the Citibank opinion, when Jamie Dimon, the CEO of Citibank congratulated the Communist Party on 100 years of rule, and then bet them that Citibank would still be around in 100 years’ time but they wouldn’t be.
Yeah. Which didn’t help their investments in China after that.
My old boss Trevor Kennedy died over the weekend, Tony.
Your old boss, really? Wow.
Well, he ran OzEmail when I was at OzEmail for a couple of years, yeah. And I read there was an obit in the Fin that I was reading: “Trevor Kennedy’s toughest deal crossing Kerry Packer”. You ever heard the story about when Turnbull and Trevor, who went on to found OzEmail together, but where Malcolm Turnbull and Trevor got kicked out of the Tourang Consortium? Apparently – this is old news – apparently, Malcolm Turnbull secretly met with some investigators and gave them copies of Trevor Kennedy’s diary that showed that whilst, for kids or for folks who are too young to remember this, this is going back a ways, the 80s, I guess, late 80s, when Kerry Packer was trying to take over Fairfax, and he was telling the Australian media tribunal or whatever it was that he was going to be hands off and he wasn’t – because he already owns nine or whatever he owned at the time back then women’s weekly and other kinds of stuff – that he was going to be hands off and he wasn’t going to have anything to do with it, it was okay. Privately he was going to run it like you would imagine Kerry Packer was going to run it and this was all written down and Trevor Kennedy’s diary, which Malcolm Turnbull leaked to investigators after they got knifed. And, Malcolm Turnbull is on record as saying that Kerry Packer told him he was going to have him killed for releasing this because just after he leaked this information, Kerry pulled out of the whole Fairfax deal when this got out. And Turnbull claims he said to him, “well, when you send your guy after me you better make sure he gets me with the first shot because if he doesn’t, you better bloody be sure my guy won’t miss.”
I was like, well, that’s like, you know, Kerry Packer then did die. It was you know, eighteen years later but he did die so you never know. And, aren’t you living in Kerry Packer’s old penthouse apartment that he didn’t move into…
Maybe because he found out it was booby trapped by Malcolm Turnbull. That’s all I’m saying. Just want to be careful. You see any loose wires in the walls, don’t, don’t pull on them or anything like that.
Right. So it’s Malcolm who’s been stealing our stock tips, not the Chinese Communist Party.
It could be, could have the place bugged. Yeah.
Yeah, right. Gee.
Anyway, you want to talk about the week?
We can talk about news items first.
And a few other things. Yeah. Well, speaking of the Chinese Communist Party, did you see how the World Health Organization, the WHO, the doctor as, as I like to call it, they skipped two Greek letters to get to Omicron.
Nu and xi.
Xi was one of them.
Yeah, but they said it’s because it’s a common surname as it is with Xi Jinping, and they didn’t want to offend people. Donald Trump’s saying it’s because they’re trying to pacify the Chinese or pacify the President, but I don’t think that’s the case.
Who knows? Anyway, I thought it was interesting and worth a laugh.
Gee, you really, you really have been spending a lot of time with Des lately, haven’t you?
I unfriended Des about two years ago or a year ago, or something.
I know, I know, you’re just going down the conspiracy rabbit hole.
Nah. I’m holding, I’m using my Barbados tea mug today. So hats off to Barbados, they’ve just elected their own president.
Oh, yes. They’ve become a republic.
Republic. Yes. And thrown off the British Royal Family. So we, we visited a day when I was living in Toronto, great place.
And you’re wearing your Berkshire Hathaway commemorative shirts.
That’s right. I haven’t worn it for a while. I’m going away on Friday, so I’m trying to wear all the things I don’t normally take away with me so I don’t have to wash before I leave. Yeah. Ah, what else? Oh, just getting back to the current market. A couple of other quotes that I wanted to cover up before we go into stock on the week. One comes from the racing fraternity, and it says “losing money is one thing, losing your nerve is everything.” And I think that’s kind of, get a sense that some people are starting to get a bit tired of rule one or three point sell lines, but you got to keep, gotta keep holding your nerve. And I guess another quote came to mind; Ruddy was talking to me last week about it. So, we, we went away to the Hunter and played golf, and as part of our goodie bags, they gave us a copy of a book by a golf pro, Nick O’Hern, and in that Ruddy pulled out a quote which was, which was good. It’s a three-letter acronym is DCA. And it stands for Decide, Commit and Accept. And it’s a good way to play golf, you decide on the shot, you commit to it, and then whatever happens, you accept it. And I think the same thing’s applicable to the stock market; you decide what you’re going to do, you commit and you accept. You don’t go in going “oh what the fuck do I do? Rule one’s been breached? Do I sell? Do I hold? You decide, you commit and then whatever happens you accept it. You don’t Monday morning quarterback it, you don’t say “oh gee, should have used a six iron, not a seven iron.” You accept it, you may have got it right, you may have got it wrong, you move on. I think that’s appropriate.
Yeah, and I look I feel for people that are new into QAV and maybe they haven’t been listening very long, they haven’t been following along very long. And you know, they may not have the degree of confidence in it or in you that they will have over time that the system works. And so, it’s, it’s quite scary. And they think well if I just maybe tweak this bit or tweak that bit, which of course they’re, they’re free to do.
Until the cows come home if you want, but certainly it’s you know, it where it currently is, is the result of your 30 years of tweaking.
And testing and back testing. So, you know, I would recommend that they just, you know, don’t trust us, don’t trust you, jump on our Facebook group and ask. Ask the people that are following QAV for a couple of years because there’s a bunch of them there on the Facebook group and say you know what, what do they think after a couple of years. Don’t, you know, don’t trust us you know…
Yeah, God no.
… Go ask the people that have been here for a while.
Don’t trust us, I mean trust the process. If you don’t like the process, you can fudge it. But you know, if you fudge it too much and get too far away from it, you’ll get into that loop of “did I do the right thing, did I do the wrong thing,” you gotta decide to commit. Yeah, anyway. A couple of other things. There’s been a few sells last week which crossed our three point trend line, I just thought it might be worthwhile talking about, or not talking about them but just naming them now in case people haven’t seen them. National Bank did, and I sold it. Downer EDI did and I sold it. Super Cheap Auto did last week, or Super Group – Super Retail Group. As did EVZ, ASG, DSK, EP1, PPG, SGA-SGR, sorry, and ADA. They’re all now sells that I picked up doing our buy list work on the weekend. And two new ones, CLT and SND. Saunders International have entered the buy list. You spoke about our dummy portfolio, haven’t you I think? Anyway, we’ve got our three top stocks in Navexa this week are KSC up 5%, Korvest, KOV up 3%, and KIL which is just up 0.38 percent. But they were the only three rises. So, the dummy portfolios down just under 1% for the week, but the market was down 2.13% for that same seven day period. As you said before, we’re up 30% CAGR over the two-and a-bit years, versus 11% of the market since inception, and 5.25% for this financial year versus 2.57% for the market. So, not quite double but getting there. Yeah, so it’s a turbulent time, but these are the kinds of times we, I think the process comes to the fore. And if you – it’s good to have a process to rely upon, you don’t have to think about everything from first principles. So, yeah. Two more things I want to talk about quickly before stock of the week. The first one is last week I talked about average daily trades and what sort of percentage people should pay up to of that and one of the listeners had written in asking a question, and in part of that question they mentioned that 20% was in the Bible. And I said, “no, I think it’s 33 and a third.” It should be 20%, so I got that wrong, I’m sorry. I think what’s happened is, in the couple of years since I mentioned that I’ve just been trying to find 15 to 20 stocks big enough on the buy list to get into my portfolio. So, I think I’ve crept up to 33 and a third percent, to try and do that. But no, it should be 20%. I went back and looked at – so the idea for that came from a book called Skin in the Game by Nicholas Taleb. The classic quote is about walking into a movie cinema and looking at, looking not at how big the cinema is but how big the exits are in case you need to get out in a hurry. And, also checked with Stock Doctor, Stock Doctor recommend 20% as well. So, a couple of sources there for that. So, I got it wrong, sorry. It’s, it should be 20% in the Bible, not the, not a third. I just think I’ve crept up to that.
Yeah, the problems you have Tony, like…
Like a faulty memory.
No, you’ve got a good memory. But yeah, not being able to find stuff to buy, they’re all too small.
And then the other thing I want to mention, too, when we talk about Omicron, I did make a note and we didn’t cover it was that the difference this time around is anti-viral. So, I suspect not only will there be, if we need the new vaccines, or if the current ones are fine, booster shots, but the difference this time around is that it’s, we’re not too far away from having an oral antiviral which will help people get through COVID. That may make a difference.
Although the one they were touting a couple of weeks ago, they’ve ended up pulling. Said it didn’t work.
Yeah, hopefully won’t be so long that we, won’t be too long before we have one.
Yeah. Okay, moving on. I’ve got stock of the week to talk about.
So the small cap one and a large cap one. I didn’t put it in my notes, sorry.
Lindsay. Thank you.
Yep. It’s only a, it’s a very tiny company. Only has an ADT of around $3,000 so it’s not going to suit most people. But I’m not going to talk about that in detail. I’m going to talk about West African Resources, which is a much bigger company, and declare that I own it. And last week, when I was selling stocks and trying to find things to buy, I topped up my holding in West African Resources. But that’s neither here nor there. This is not a recommendation to buy the stock, I’m just going to go through the process of how we analyse it. I learnt something new when I was looking at the details on West African Resources. Do you know what the capital of Burkina Faso is? Where WAF has a mine?
I used to, actually, but no, I cannot recall.
Well hopefully I pronounce it properly: Ouagadougou.
Ah, Ouagadougou Ouagadougou do-do-do. I knew a family from Burkina Faso that I met a few years ago, so I read up on it because I knew nothing about it and I felt like, I felt like a complete idiot. So, but yeah, that’s a good one.
Ouagadougou. Yeah. So West African country, Burkina Faso. Two projects over there for this company: Sanbrado Gold Project, which is actually producing, and that’s near Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso. And then a new one called Sartanga, which is a copper, gold and molybdenum project, which is under development also in Burkina Faso and reasonably close to the coast. So, it’s only forty k’s from a port, which is always important for miners, that’s a good thing. That’s under development, hasn’t actually started producing yet. Onto the numbers. QAV score is 0.14 so it’s down towards the bottom of the list. And one of the things I struggled with in finding a stock to talk about this week, Cam, was that the small-cap stocks are fine, but finding a large-cap stock that we hadn’t already talked about and was on the buy list and wasn’t also a Josephine was difficult.
I had to run a buy list this morning for my Superfund just with the ASX 300, so large cap stocks. My, the list was pretty small. It was… I meant to ask you about that. I ran it and it was like less than twenty stocks.
And I, we owned, like fifteen of them, so I was getting right down to the bottom.
And some of them are probably also Josephine’s too, like Beach Energy, for example.
Ended up buying Perseus which I tried to buy like a week or so ago, but it was a Josephine then, but it’s shot up since then. But yeah, it was very slim pickings for large cap stocks this morning.
Yeah, so that’s an issue. So that’s why I’m talking about a stock that’s close to the bottom of our list. And it’s scoring 0.14, and this is with a share price of $1.32. But if it does increase, and gold companies will do well if there is another pullback in the market, or if there is another problem with Omicron, then this one, like could go off the bottom of the list. But, yeah QAV score 0.14, quality score of 85%, which is quite good, average daily trade of $5.38 million. These figures come from today, 30th of November ’21, 2021. Price is $1.32, which is less than the consensus target in Stock Doctor of the brokerage of this, that covers this company. No dividend, so we can’t give it any points for that. But the financial health is strong and steady, but it’s not a star stock. So, it’s strong and steady, but not a star stock. Interestingly enough, the return on equity of this company’s nearly 94%. So, I know some people like to focus on that, we don’t, but it’s a very high ROE for this company. But Prc/Op Cf is 6.46, so just under 7, and I think if the share price does increase, it won’t take long before this is above 7 and it will lose a couple of points. So, if the share price keeps rising, it may not be on the buy list for a long period. PE is 8.43, which is quite low. And one of the reasons that companies like this come on to a value investor’s screening page is because that all a lot of people don’t like buying outside of Australia, and they talk about sovereign risk, which is something we should address with companies like this. It is always a risk, but risk and reward applies here and the company certainly, for a company with a ROE of 94% and a fully functional goldmine plus another one in development, to pay this kind of price for it, you know, six or seven times cash flow is quite cheap. But there is the risk of it being in a foreign jurisdiction, and they call that sovereign risk. I did note in my research of the company that the Burkina Faso government gets a free 10% shareholding or a stake in the profits, I think I don’t know if they’re actually shareholders, but certainly a stake in the profit. So, who knows what will happen. But that may well placate any sort of negative activity from the local government over there. But it’s always a risk. The price of this of this stock is above our IV 1, but it’s less than IV 2, and it’s less than half of IV 2, so we give it an extra point for that in the checklist. Net equity per share is only 28 cents. So, the share price of $1.32 is way above that so it gets a 0 score for book value, and a zero score for being less than 30% above book. EPS growth is forecast to be 32%, which is again quite high given, especially given the price we’re paying for this stock, which means the growth over the PE is 3.8 times which scores well on our checklist, something we look at. Funnily enough, director’s only hold 3%. So, it doesn’t score on the founder-owner side of things. It does have a record low PE for the last three years, so that gets a 2 in our checklist. Equity is not going up consistently so it doesn’t get a score for that. So, all in all, cheap, probably because of sovereign risk, and scoring 0.14 but with a Prc/Op Cf 6.46 might not be around for long.
Hmm, I think I’ve got the lower Prc/Op Cf on that when I was looking at it yesterday, I think mine was 5.46.
Yeah, there’s a difference between Stock Doctor if you take their figure and how we, when we calculate it using NEPS is about 10% difference. Yeah.
Gary: “got a quick question in regards to what you might be doing at the moment while the market seems to be going south?”
My…. this weather? “I started investing in October. I started investing in October when I was trying to build up my portfolio to twenty stocks. I started to buy from the top of the list where I got to about sixteen. After a few weeks had a few stocks where they dropped more than 10% of their buy price so I had to use rule number one, for example NHC,” yep, I had to sell that as well. “SFR, AIS,” yep, “GCY and SUN.” Yep.
I sold SUN.
We’ve all been there, Gary. “I currently have eleven stocks in my portfolio but three more have dropped below their 10% buy price. I.e. EHL…” Yep, I saw that yesterday, “… Dow and SLX. My question is, would you continue to keep buying from the watch list or hold on to your cash, sit on your positive performing stocks and wait until the market picks up again to buy. I’m interested to know what you would do.” Well, yes, the classic question…
…Gary, to sit on cash or keep investing. And Tony says…
Keep investing. The answers in the question; do you sit on cash and your positive performing stocks and wait until the market picks up again to buy? Or do you invest? Well, if Gary can tell me when the markets going to pick up again, I’ll just go away or sleep when the markets not going to and I’ll wait until he tells me when the markets going to pick up again. I’ll just invest on the good days, that’ll be great, and we’ll be doing this from the Bahamas in the future if that can happen. No one, no one knows when the market will pick up again. People will tell you they do. But they don’t. And you only know when it happens, so stick to the process. That’s, that’s my, I mean, it’s a kind of a trite answer to Gary’s question. So, I guess it’s unfortunate that Gary sort of started to invest in October when the markets going through a turbulent time. But what else do you do? You could just wait until the market corrects, but you could be sitting and waiting for a couple of years before that happens, so who knows? If I had started in the market in October I’d be doing the same thing Gary’s doing. And I won’t read out the names of the stocks or because Gary’s also included some details of his portfolio here, and I’m not going to give personal advice. But just to run through the profile of the portfolio, one stocks up 23%, another ones up, just under 10, ones up 7 or 8%, ones up four and a half, one’s up just under 2, ones down, just under 1, one’s down 5%, ones down nearly 9%. And then he mentioned in his email, he has three which are down more than 10% and I’m not sure where they are today, they may well have recovered a little bit. I know, I checked one of those stocks this morning, and it hasn’t enough to buy again, but, but I would definitely just apply the process. So, I’d be selling those bottom three, because they have dropped more than 10% from what you paid for them. And I’d be going on to the buy list and buying the next one down the list you don’t own. And I guess the trick these, in this kind of market is, is to check for the bigger Josephines. So, don’t buy a Josephine. That’s an important step of the process. And also, I prefer to buy on a positive day for the stock. So, you know, if something’s going down, even though value investors will say “great, buying it cheaper”, that might be the start of a trend. So, I will wait until I see a positive day for that stock. So that’s how I would apply the process, that’s how I am applying the process even though I’ve been in the market for a long time. Understand, it’s difficult for Gary who’s, who’s churning stocks, he’s having lots of rule 1 sells, but stick with it buddy, it’s, you’ve been in the market for a month, maybe two months, you’ve got the rest of your life to sort this out and you’ll be fine.
You know, I remember when we started the QAV portfolio September 2019. And it was doing really well…
And the months before that with Apollo.
Yeah, well, let’s not talk about Apollo. But we, we were fully invested in September, and it did well for a couple of months, and then COVID hit China. And our, our portfolio started to slip, and then it hit everywhere and it tanked. And you were like, then you were like “eh, this is situation normal.” As you said before, this happens, market corrections come, don’t worry about it. And within six months our portfolio was, you know, way up and recovered. Went back up, then went down, went up, went up, as I said before.
And that’s an interesting case study, because I remember during the COVID cough, we had no idea, like we were trying to predict what was going to happen, like whether it would be a million deaths in Australia or one death in Australia and we just didn’t know. We were trying to do the sums, we couldn’t do the sums, or the sums were wildly inaccurate that we did, so yeah, listening to the noise and trying to predict things is impossible. Just follow the process. Just nowcast not forecast.
Yeah, look, I’m sure all of us – Gary and myself included – would love for your portfolio when you just start for it to go up for a long time before it goes back a little bit. But that’s just not how the world works.
Sometimes you get started in a choppy period. But I know you’ve always said always be invested. That’s your policy.
Always be fully invested. Never sit on cash.
Well, if I can avoid it, I mean, I did sit on cash during COVID because there’s nothing to buy on the buy list. And,
I did sit on cash over the weekend. I sold stocks on Friday and I couldn’t find anything on the buy list to buy. I bought back into a couple today. Nothing new, I just topped up some positions. So, like I found in my portfolio when I was going through it last week with all the chops and changes, some positions – particularly ones which I’ve held for a number of years – are smaller than other ones, than the newer ones, because the portfolio has gone up and I’ve been buying more and higher ADTs and bigger positions. So, I’ve just been topping up some of those smaller ones. Sandfire and ASX today come to mind because I can’t find anything else to buy on the market. And I don’t want to be in cash. But it’s quite possible if the market goes down again and lines get breached and we sell, that we, I can’t find things to buy so I may well sit on cash, but I try and avoid it.
Yes, you if at all possible, you want to be fully invested at all times.
The other thing that I’ve learned over the last couple of years is even when the market’s tanking there are still stocks that are going up. There are still stocks that are doing well.
So we’re trying to uncover those, you know, there’s an old quote from one of those guys, Howard Marks or somebody about turning over rocks, Peter Lynch, maybe: your job as an investor is to keep turning over rocks and looking for the crab underneath, i don’t know, the diamonds maybe, I’m not sure. What’s under the rock at the top, and what was under the rock…
I don’t remember that quote. Yeah.
You’re turning over rocks.
Kissing Frogs? Yeah.
Yeah, cuz we look we’ve seen – I’ve seen, you’ve seen a lot more, but I’ve seen just in the last couple of years that even in times when everything’s going bad, some stocks are doing okay. And if you’re not invested in those stocks at the time, you’re missing out on that growth. I think this is something that when we’re new to this, we don’t understand. Like, okay, when, so Gary says wait until the market picks up again. But how do you define picks up again? Is it 1% above where it was yesterday? Is it 2%? Is it 3%? Is it consecutive 3% days? Or is it 10%? Okay, once the markets up 10%, then I know that it’s up, but then you’ve just missed out on that 10%, that gives you a,
An investment. But 10% is everything right? That’s where, you know, we…
Well, and the market might start going down once it’s gone up 10% too, so could be worse. You could, like its classic investor behaviour for someone who’s new to the market or not experienced in the market is to when things go bad to sell, and sit on cash, and then to come back in when things are good. So, you’re always buying at the top and selling at the bottom. And that’s not the way to invest.
And the psychology behind that, I think is really hard to get out of. It took me a long time of doing this to realise, thinking about when we talk about growth stocks or Bitcoin or stuff like that, too, like, how do you know when to get out? If you don’t have something like a three point trendline rule or a rule 1 rule, how do you know when to get out? How do you know when to cut your losses? But the flipside is, how do you know when to get into these things if you don’t have rules telling you when to get in and when to get out because we’re not good judges of complex systems, right? Oh, how do you know when the markets going back up and isn’t going to turn around tomorrow? You just don’t know. You can’t know, it’s imposs- no one knows. You don’t know, Buffett doesn’t know. No one knows. So, you just need to be always following the rules day in, day out. So, on those – you remember we talked about this story, I can’t remember where we got it from, but we talked about the story some months ago. Some guy did some analysis, Howard Marks or maybe somebody like that and looked at the last fifty years of the S&P 500 or something like that, and all of the growth in the last fifty years came in about six years. Maybe it was twelve years or something like that, like the vast majority of the time, the market does not grow, it goes down. But if you’re not invested in those years when it does grow, like the six years out of the fifty, or whatever it is,
Or if you get in halfway through that period, you’ve lost 50% of your growth over fifty years. Like it’s it’s it’s really weird. We, you know, for amateurs, we don’t think about the market like that but when you look at, you do the data analysis, and you go, “oh, shit, it’s really much more flimsy and sporadic than we realise.”
Yeah, and look, I mean, it’s, I mean, that sort of is the long term stats, but it applies just as equally for say the last twelve months, if you look at the last twelve months, you know, most of the gain in the market and the market was up, what, 25% or something, most of that happened in April or May of last year when coming out of COVID, everything just took up. The share market just went up almost at a 45-degree angle. If you were, you know, sitting there trying to work out what was happening with COVID and what was happening with travel stocks and Bitcoin and all that and you missed that 25%, well, okay, you picked, maybe picked up some growth, but you missed out on the major part of the growth.
It’s the Are We There Yet syndrome? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?
Yeah, right. Yeah. Yeah.
Is the mark up yet? Is the market up?
You never know.
And I remember all the questions around the COVID cough time was how long did the GFC take and how long are we going to be down and out for and sitting on cash and all that and I’m like, well, the GFC took eighteen months but this could be different. And it was and no one, and I was completely surprised at how quickly the market climbed out of the COVID cough in March. And if we hadn’t had the process to buy back in when the buy lines were hit, we’d still be scratching our heads going shit what just happened? You know?
Yeah. Exactly, yeah. But, you know, we just follow the rules and the rules take care of it. The rules, Gary, tell us when to get in, when to get out. But so I think that’s the important thing, like, to stay fully invested if you can and just follow the rules. Follow the process, it’ll guide you through.
Yeah, I agree Gary. Good luck mate, I think you’ll be fine.
Yeah, I know you will if you stick to it, I mean from my limited experience anyway over the last few years. Luke: “a question from a friend, I’ve heard on the show,” by the way I want to give Luke’s YouTube show a plug. Luke’s got a Yeah, exactly. Yeah. But you know, we just follow the rules and the rules take care of it. Rules, Gary, tell us when to get in, when to get out. That’s, so I think that’s the important thing, like to stay fully invested if you can, and just follow the rules, follow the process. It’ll, it’ll guide you through.
Yeah, I agree, Gary, good luck mate you’ll, I think you’ll be fine.
Yeah, I know you will if you stick to it. I mean,
For my limited experience anyway, over the last few years. Luke, a question from a friend “I’ve heard on the show…” – by the way, I want to give Luke’s YouTube show a plug. Luke’s got a great little podcast, a YouTube podcast, whatever you call it, where he is, I think he’s about ten episodes in, he’s talking about going from 50,000 to a million. Trying to start with 50,000 and build his portfolio to a million. And he’s just guiding people through, telling them what he does using the QAV system each week … and just in a really accessible “guy with a Ute” kind of fashion, and doing a great job. So check it out. I can’t remember the name of the – sorry, Luke, but jump into the Facebook page and give it a plug and you should come on the show. Shoot me an email, you should come on the show and sometime in the next couple of weeks and talk to people about what you’re doing, because I think you’re doing a great job. Anyway, Luke’s got a question from a friend: “I’ve heard on the show before, but what was the reason for not buying into ETFs and LICs? Why won’t they show up on the checklist? Just a refresher, if anything. Thanks.”
Yeah, so they used to be on the checklist, Luke. ETFs in particular were an easy one to drop because the operating cash flow for an ETF represents usually people buying and selling the shares of the ETF rather than the performance of the underlying fund. And it could also represent things like gearing and hedging, currency movements, etc. So it wasn’t really a true reflection of operating cash flow as we would like it to be in terms of income to a business and using the coffee shop analogy; the sales less the cost of collecting those sales, the coffee shop would have. So ETFs are out LICs are also partly in that camp. And I may put them back in, I still haven’t done enough research to work out whether they should come back in or not. LICs do have, their operating cash flow has more of a flavour of the success or otherwise of the underlying fund but it does represent when they buy and sell shares which may not actually represent whether the fund is doing well or not, just might be that they sold lots of shares this half. And, but it also reflects exercising options or raising new funds etc. as well, flowing through -sometimes they flow in through the operating cash flow. So that’s why LICs and ETFs are out. Look I’m not averse to putting them back in, or you can look if you want to because we certainly had some success with them in the past and when they meet our criteria, but I was just a little wary of of having operating cash flows so critical to our process and not necessarily representing what we normally think of operating cash flow which is income from a business.
Thanks for explaining that and I just looked it up, Luke’s YouTube channel’s called The Gibson Hustle. Look that up, check it out, he’s doing a great job. Lee, question re: selling winners. “What/how does TK think about swapping winners for something that is on the buy list; eg. company A is currently 51% up and nowhere near the sell line. Company A is no longer on the buy list, ie. it’s not coming up in my filter anymore, would have to manually check QAV score but obviously it is now low after share price rise. Does TK think about selling company A and buying company B which IS on the buy list? High QAV score, sentiment checked, good to go, etc.?”
Yes, I’m actually trialing that at the moment. We’ve talked about this before. The general principle is I don’t do that. That’s a rebalancing situation and Buffett’s famous quote comes to mind of if you got Michael Jordan on the team, why would you bench him? And that’s the case, if you’ve got something which has gone up 50%: Happy Days. Like why would you sell it’s, it’s going to incur a capital gains tax and it might be something you hold for life so who knows. But I do take the points that Lee makes and have been running a trial of rebalancing and like, my criteria for rebalancing is when a company hits 0.05 on the QAV score on the buy list. So it’s been on the buy list above 0.01 and has dropped down because the share price is rising and it’s now 0.05 or worse, and I’ve been selling that each month and buying something from the buy list each month. That’s been running now as a trial for me for five months, I think. And it’s pretty much line ball. The rebalancing was working about 1% less than the buy and hold. It’ll be interesting to see what happens next month, which I’ll do next week, because it’s end of month at the moment or maybe later on this week if I have time. Because, you know, it always happens, I sold NIC Nickel Mines the start of this month, which was something I bought and hold for a long time. Sold it. It was QAV score of 0.5, I forget what I bought, I think challenger CGF something like that. Anyway, Nickel Mines is up 40% this month and Challenger’s down five, so.
So when you say it’s score was 0.5 you mean 0.05?
0.05, yes, 0.05. Yeah. And Nickel Mines went through the roof, so that might be the end of the trial, but we’ll see. It’s always the way. Historically, I don’t rebalance. I’m doing a trial because I did notice in the past that sometimes when something got below 0.05 It was reaching sort of the extremities of its valuation. But the trial isn’t looking good at the moment.
There you go. How long do you think you’ll have to run it for before you make a call on it?
Probably through another reporting season, I think.
Right, another six months?
Yeah. Yep. Because, you know, like, the reason why I did this was because observing it six months ago, it worked. Right? So now it’s, I’m trialing it. We’ll give it twelve months and see how it goes.
Thanks, Lee. Last question, Stuart: “I wonder if there is more analysis that needs to be done on when to sell? MYE was on the top of my performance list for a while, and now it’s a rule 1. I’m wondering if we should sell any share that has a 10% drop at any time regardless of buy price, eg. if the share drops 10% at any time, it’s a sell not just 10% below the buy price or below the sell line. For example, NYE got up to a high of $1.10 at the end of August, once it dropped down to 99 cents you’d sell even if it’s still above the buy line. That’s taking sentiment to the next level.” Do you mean, I think he means sell if it drops, if it’s above the sell line? Because we don’t worry about what the buy line is when we sell, right, we use the sell line to determine when to sell not the buy line.
Yeah, I think what Stuart’s saying is that he’s bought something and it could be up a long, long way above the buy or the sell line. Yeah. And then if it drops back 10% should we sell it? I don’t think so, Stuart, I don’t do that. I think if you sold stocks when they drop 10% you’d be churning a lot, you’d have a very volatile portfolio. And I mean, Cameron, you talked about it before, our portfolio has dropped 10% at the portfolio level a lot in the two years that we’ve been running it. So, at the stock level, you can probably multiply that by 15. And if you look at the stocks that have gone up for us, like Fortescue Metals Group, there’s plenty of times during it’s rise where it’s retreated 10% or more, Macquarie Bank’s the same comes to mind. So no, it’s not something I would recommend doing. You can always fudge it, if you want to Stuart, and if it makes you happy, but I think you’ll find you’ll be churning a lot in your portfolio. And if you don’t pay close attention when you have that kind of tight rule, you know, you’ll miss it and you’ll be selling out when it drops 10%. You’ll take your eye off the ball and buy back in when it goes up 20%, and then it’ll drop 10% and sell it, and you know, if you miss the upturn, you just – yeah, I think it’s too volatile. I wouldn’t do it. I don’t do it.
You have been tossing around the idea, though, of coming up with a new rule for selling. Remind me what that was, again?
You’re talking about the commodity stocks? The miners?
No, I think it’s just the stuff you were talking about before about the QAV score, right? Just that the QAV score drop’s down. So, there’s no, there’s no other experiment you’re running?
No, no, so I did look at the commodities. And the miners. And I did look at QAV scores when they’ve dropped below 0.05. So those’re the things that I’m looking at. Yeah. And that trial is still going on with 0.015 and it’s not looking great, but we’ll see.
Well, that’s it. That’s the questions. That’s the show for today. Now we’re just going to talk about the Beatles documentary for four hours so everyone kick your shoes off, put your feet up. Tony and I already talked about it for about an hour yesterday already. Fantastic, yeah. I’ve only seen the first episode, the first couple of hours but it just blew my mind. I can’t wait to watch the rest of it. So great.
Yeah. Yeah, I think this, I watched the second episode, or at least most of it, I don’t think we got through it because it’s two hours long and the third episode hasn’t dropped yet, which will be great because that’s when they go onto the roof and do their concert – which was going to be in Syria, if Orson Welles’ illegitimate son had his way.
I still haven’t looked that up yet, the connection between Hog and Welles, I got to check that out.
Yeah. So I mean, the highlights for people that haven’t watched it like, if you’re a Beatles fan at all, it’s a must watch. It’s one of the most mind-blowing things you’ll ever see. To see these guys going through the creative process, just clowning around, and just jamming really and slapping – throwing mud on the wall and seeing what sticks and out of it comes an album and then and half of the next album, because I think it was like three days after they did the rooftop concert, they went back into the studio to record Abbey Road,
With, you know, and half of Abbey Road songs they were sort of working on in the Let it Be session. So yeah, it’s, it’s just mind boggling to watch it all unfold, really.
Yeah. And what great musicians they were, you know, like, we’ve both written songs with people, like, someone would say, “hey, what about this” and you go, “okay”, and then “I’ll come back tomorrow with some, some riffs for that, to go with it.” Whereas George would sit there and go “okay”, and come up with a riff on the spot that fits in really well. “What’s the key? Off we go.”
And if McCartney is playing piano, John jumps on the bass. If John’s playing piano McCartney jumps on the bass and power drums, they just all do it and its just, yeah. It’s astounding to watch them just sort of be a fly on the wall during the… and, you know, they did break up not long after that but…
Or during, yeah.
Well briefly reformed and broke up again. You know, there’s obviously tensions there as there is with any relationship or marriage or band and as I heard Rick Beato say, bands should break up, you know, that’s, bands should break up and some bands don’t break up soon enough. They keep going and,
You know, they get tired, lonely. Bands, you know, there’s a life cycle to all relationships, and some are short and some are long. And, but it is like there’s, there’s so much clowning around and camaraderie and friendship there. You can tell that they all loved each other, really. It was, it was *inaudible*.
And it’s I think they’re at their best when they’re loosest and clowning around like that’s when some of the music was made. When, you know, writing Get Back and Paul’s just strumming on the bass, do-do-do-do-do-do-do “Get back” do-do-do-do-do-do-do. And then John starts clowning around with that, and George comes in and it’s just, and Ringo straight away gets the beat. And yeah, the story behind that was amazing with the, the race riots and the race protests and the immigration and it was – what were the original words? Something like get back to Pakistan? Where you belong?
Yeah. “Hey, hey Mr. Pakistani, what do you think you’re doing? Back to where you once came from.”
Yeah, it was an anti, well, anti, anti-racist, anti-racist song originally. Ringo’s really interesting. He’s very quiet and just sits there like he just seems to watch and listen when the guys are writing songs. And when they need him he starts banging the skins. And when he doesn’t he just sits and he’s smoking, smokes a cigarette and just pays attention. He’s very, I was sort of shocked by how quietly studious he was of what the guys were doing. Not trying to insert his two cents or interfere with anything, just in awe, I think he was in awe, like he says at one stage, “I could sit and watch Paul play piano for hours.” You know?
Oh, who couldn’t? When he comes in in the morning and goes “I’ve just got this one down last night, guys. Mother Mary comes to me…” It’s like, just…
Starts just banging out Let it Be and then Long and Winding Road. He’s just like, “oh yeah”.
Well, I think Ringo may have had copious amounts of marijuana inside him, which is probably why he was relaxed. But, but then they were also, they were in the Shepperton Studios because Ringo was filming The Magic Christian with Peter Sellers.
Sorry, Twickenham Studios, yeah. Which was a great a great movie, too. If you haven’t seen that. That’s hilarious.
I have. It’s weird. It’s a really weird film.
Yeah. John Cleese cameo.
John Cleese, yeah.
I saw a bit of it. I don’t think I’ve seen the whole thing. I tried to track it down some years ago and saw some of it, anyway.
What else? You were telling me about this book Caste by Isabel Wilkerson.
Caste? Yes, a recommendation from Johannes Risseeuw who we had on the show last year or the year before. Yes, c-a-s-t-e, Caste. Isabel Wilkerson. Great book. I’ve only read the first hundred pages, but it’s about American politics, American race history. And her thesis is that it’s not a racial problem in the US it’s a caste problem that, and we’re all part of it, that we all let people who are our overlords, you know, control things and people who are our underlings get by without helping them etc., etc. And she draws lots of parallels with the Indian caste system. But just some amazing facts in the first 100 pages, like there’s one chapter on, on Nazi Germany and how one of the people who were, who was asked by Hitler to write the laws around racial purity in about 1934 had studied at the University of North Carolina, and when he came back and said, “yeah, yeah, I can draft the laws based on the American laws” the Nazis are going “no, you can’t do, you can’t possibly be telling the truth. They can’t possibly get away with that law in the US.”
“Look, we may be Nazis, but we draw a line somewhere. We’re not going to be America, come on.”
Yeah, so that was interesting. And then she tells a story too about, you know, she paints a picture of how someone was sweeping their, their front stoop in Germany, and it was covered in grey ash, and how that was the, the task they did every day was get out and sweep the ash off the stoop and then get back to their lives. And, of course, the ash was the human burnt remains from the concentration camps. Very powerful book.
And it’s shocking. Chrissy and I were just talking about this the other day, it’s shocking to see how far to the right Germany’s going again as well. I never thought they would get back there, but the right near the sort of extreme right really seems to be on the rise in Germany again at the moment, which is shocking and surprising and a little bit sad.
Yeah, I think there’s a bit of reaction there from when Angela Merkel opened up the borders to immigrants, and a million immigrants flooded Germany, and then they had some problems. So bit of the pendulum swinging back I think on that one.
And watching Total Control too on the ABC. I’ll give a plug for that. It’s on iView. It’s great, really good Australian series.
You plugged that last week, I’ve been meaning to check it out.
Yeah, really good couple of episodes recently.
We didn’t even get through this week’s episode of Succession last night because Chrissy was falling asleep halfway through it, but it was crazy.
It was great.
We saw, Kendell’s left the party
Kendall’s fortieth birthday. And how he was going to fly above the crowd, strapped to a cross, singing Honesty by Billy Joel.
I love his manic periods. He’s just so crazy. Good stuff. Alright. Well, that’s the episode for this week, thank you, Tony. Now you’re leaving this week. You’re going down south?
Yeah. Going, heading down to Cape Schanck. But I’ve got a golf charity tournament on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, next week, so we can either record on Thursday, or we can do something this week and put it out next week, or whatever you want to do?
Yeah, well, we did talk about doing sort of a lesson’s of 2021 summary show, which maybe we’ll do that next week, seeing as you’re going to be out of action for a lot of the week and saves us scrambling at the end of the week. So, save your questions this week, folks, we’ll probably do just a more of a philosophical show next week.
Yeah, or we can we can certainly answer questions if people want to pose them. I don’t have a problem with answering questions. We’ll just do it on Thursday rather than Tuesday.
I’m sure there will be lots of questions. The market will still be… who knows? The market may be going up in a straight line, or it might be crashing or it might be termoiling around Omicron. We don’t know.
Right. Well, the only problem is if we record Thursday, we won’t get it out until Friday. And then we normally do another one on Monday or Tuesday. So yeah, it might be might be sort of starting to compress the shows a little bit too much.
Oh, well, let’s see. We’ll focus on Thursday next week of doing a market recap for the year. But if anyone wants to send through questions, that’s fine. If we get too many, we can spill them over on the Tuesday show.
Yeah, if you have urgent questions, send them. If not, save them up or send them to me anyway and I’ll work out where we put them. Let’s just do that. Okay. Have a good, have a good trip. Safe driving.
Yeah, thank you. Yeah, hopefully the weather turns. Alex was saying it was 30 degrees and sunny in Melbourne today, which she hates. I’m like, I’m coming down. I said it’s raining in Sydney. It’s been raining for two or three weeks.
It’s one of the three days of 30 degrees and sunny they get in Melbourne all year round. So tell her to enjoy it while it lasts.
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