ALL Seasons
All Australian Episodes
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QAV 540 — No Secrets
Oil, copper and gold commodity movements, SDG bought for the DP, but it’s in rundown, Pulled pork request from Ally: BST, Interest rate changes to Master spreadsheet, dividend payments and sell lines, investment prioritization and risk tolerance, 2% capital loss/risk rule, the TGA share consolidation scenario, what is the main commodity for S32?, the coal sell line, parcel sizing.
QAV 539 — Coked Up
Liz Truss is a genius ; COAL — if thermal is a buy, and coking is a Josephine, how do we treat YAL; I screwed up with SMR today; Portfolio updates; RBA increasing rates today; David Gottesman, Warren Buffett Partner, Dies; The market PE ratio is falling; Recession in my mind, is almost certain; All ords down 7.13% on a 1 year basis. but the Small ords is down 22.24%; Pulled Pork on: BFG; the Investment Clock; how to determine if there has been a recent positive upturn; why does TK think “Capital Goods” companies are starting to show up in droves on our list; the theory of “3PTL Sells” and dividends.
QAV 538 — The Market Rout
Fund performance; Reserve Bank money printing and inflation; Labor and Franked Dividends; Pulled Pork XTE; share market rout; portfolio update; RBA burns $50bn in QE; Viva Energy Buys back Coles Express sites; WHC announces $2bn buy back; Apollo shares jump on Jucy deal; Kudos to ABC News; Doug’s shorting experiment update; back testing around observing major triggers of a general downward trend in the market; the pros and cons of ETFs; ECX continually buying back shares and Rule #1.
QAV S05E37 — Under Pressure
Founder-lead businesses; dividend payment dates; Stock Doctor and updated results; keeping LICs off the buy list; Renko chart update; RBA governor under pressure; new large cap stocks; setting up a $100k DP;
GNP pulled pork; NL stands for No Liability; the benefit of taking profits.
QAV S05E36 — The Beeping Royals
Which stocks are pushing up the AORD; the making of a millionaire study; commodity changes; TER results; Pulled pork ALO; Renko charts and time frames; RRL sell line; sell lines and “not losing profits”; how TK does regression testing; would TK buy something that doesn’t have a sell line.
QAV S05E35 — QAVLENGTH
Iron Ore is a sell; Down days, up days… what about neutral days; Rule 1 and dividends; Josephine but above its 2BL; Happy birthday Warren; Taylor’s article;
Pulled Pork: SMR; SGM less impacted by the iron ore price; GRR and Renko charts; ALO, a scalable software play; moving average v 3PTL; WHC thoughts
QAV S05E34 — The Qaverick
Time to check your 3PTL alerts; spare a thought for poor Andrew Forrest; NCK’s results; Ophir fund performance; Portfolio updates; Reversal of fortune for BPT, back on the buy list; Some old friends return to the buy list — SUL, BFG and WHC; SGM is a scrap metal recycler tied to the iron ore price; TK mistakenly bought KAR and VEA; he also bought NWS but probably shouldn’t have; Pulled Pork is ABA; PTB enters into scheme implementation deed; JHG price/op cashflow; the outlook for REITs; banks and ‘Price to Op cashflow ratio’; TK’s thoughts on a 2nd sell line; has Tony found he has had any better or worse luck on stocks he’s repurchased after making a loss; sell line for EHL; who is our Qaverick of the Week?
QAV S05E33 — Astrology For Men
Our guest today is Brisbane-born, LA-based Tobias Carlisle, PM of Acquirers Funds, author of The Acquirer’s Multiple and Deep Value, and co-host of the Acquirers podcast. We talk about the current state of value investing in the USA and why macro economics is “Astrology For Men”.
QAV S05E32 — QAV A Good Week
On this episode: Signs of Coming Economic Horror, gold is a sell, CGF punished, portfolio update, mortgage rates update, reporting season updates, nickel close to a buy, BPT misses guidance, Pulled pork on SDG, OGC delisting, SKT pulls out of Media Works, filtering the list for dividends.
QAV S05E31 — How High Is Your IQ(AV)?
We bid farewell to ONJ; Portfolio update; 3PTL reminder; Catch phrase comp; Oil is almost a sell; Gold AUD no longer a sell; Pulled pork is KPG; AFIC Net Asset Backing; Is Copper a buy; Is TK fully invested currently or still being cautious; the longest period of under performance TK has experienced.
QAV S05E30 — Light and Magic
Aluminium is now a buy; CCP down on results; MLD takeover; RIO results; owner-managed companies outperform; Pulled Pork SOL; the “wine selection” of iron ore blends; YAL drop on Glencore sale; where TK gets his news during reporting season.
QAV S05E29 — Let’s Get Physical
We farewell a QAV member; gold is a sell; iron ore is close; pump and dumpers duped millions out of Aussie investors; BPT results; Buffett’s casino analogy; profit taking driving up inflation; Duncan on asset washing; pulled pork on ACL; using the 3PTL on ETFs; has TK done better out of mining or industrial stocks; how and why of the Average Daily Trade rule.
QAV S05E28 — Discipline
During turbulent times, we have to have discipline; Elon and Twitter; MHJ shares up on strong quarterly sales; Iron ore about $5/Ton above its fudge sell line; Pulled Pork — AMO; MQG’s cash flow; CFO of ASX Ltd has announced her departure — a bad sign?
QAV S05E27 — The Coppock Curve
This week: I caught COVID, stochastic processes, interest rate rise, growth after corrections, Munger invests in Australia, the Coppock Curve, Buffet backs BYD, Pulled pork on WHC, 2BL examples, banks and downturns, and underlying indicators for retail.
QAV S05E26 — Happy New Year
As the financial year has ended, we discuss our portfolio performance, and then discuss BYE’s qualified audit, Confession season, mortgage rates, Pulled Pork is NZM, Iron Ore prices, 2nd Buy Line examples, and dollar cost averaging vs going all in.
QAV S05E25 — Michael Goldberg Returns
Michael Goldberg from Collins St Value Fund joins us again to talk about how they are managing the current market. This interview was conducted on June 8, so please take that into account.
QAV S05E24 — White-knuckle
This is “the white-knuckle part of the cycle”. Portfolio update. Iron ore and gold charts. Stockhistory v Stock Doctor prices. GMA and mortgage issuances. The milk stool legs. RBA and inflation. Small rods is WAY down. Wash-selling. PE contraction. Pulled pork on WDS. Benching Michael Jordan. UPST. Lots of Rule 1 questions. Buying a “wonderful company at a fair price” and ignoring sentiment.
QAV S05E23 — Dr Jenny Fagg, 2Be
Our guest today is Dr Jenny Fagg, CEO, 2Be. Jenny has had a long career in banking and finance, with roles including Chief Risk Officer of AMP Limited, EVP of Products and Payments at CIBC, one of Canada’s five top banks, CEO and Managing Director of ANZ National Bank Limited, New Zealand’s largest bank and wealth business, Managing Director of ANZ Consumer Finance in Australia, senior leadership roles in risk and marketing management at Citibank, and Jenny established the consulting practice in retail lending and customer profitability at KPMG. She holds a PhD in Management (Risk) and a Bachelor of Economics (First Class Honours in Organisational Psychology). And she is also Tony’s wife. She joined us recently to talk about her new venture, her book, “The Gist of Generosity”, and what it’s like being married to Tony.
QAV S05E22 — Musical Chairs
Why investing is a little like musical chairs at the moment; why we should like it when the market makes mistakes; Apple announces BNPL service; changes to cash rate; Pulled Pork on PGL; Yancoal takeover update; Iron Ore no longer a Josie; fundie performance limited by short-termism; how to stay sane during corrections; reporting of qualified audits in half-yearly reports.
QAV S05E21 — Excesses And Corrections
My circle of competence is just QAV ; Election result, investing implications ; SEQ and the “second buy line” ; outperformance by founder-led companies ; NHC’s big drop ; YAL halt ; Murph from ABC died ; Howard Marks’ latest memo on investor psychology ; Sri Lanka defaulting on $18bn of bonds. ; Underemployment rate now at 6.1% ; NUF has new results and crashed ; Australians lost $10Bn in crypto last year ; small stocks and Rule 1 ; what do you do in a market like this when you have a full portfolio and more capital ; a strong correlation between dividend yield and the QAV buy list ; Analysis of price to consensus target figures ; ME close v Price Chg 1mth (%) for calculating Josephine ; when a stock has done exceptionally well (say doubled) would TK use the proceeds to purchase two stocks?
QAV S05E20 — The Contra Guys
A few months ago, one of our members put me on to Benj Gallander and Ben Stadelmann, two Canadian value investors who go by the moniker “Contra the Heard” (http://www.contratheheard.com). They’ve been around a long time, have a track record almost as good as Tony’s, and they have a checklist! And when I reached out to them to invite them on to the show, I discovered that Ben and Tony were actually friends, from Tony’s years in Toronto. But in typical humble value investor style, they hadn’t really ever talked much about investing… until this interview we did a few weeks ago!
QAV S05E19 — Outfoxed
We’ve been banned from talking about crypto and fund managers; Mark’s checklist for the checklist; kids and investing; commodity update; portfolio update; are we counter cyclical; new results in SD for ECX and NAB and PDL; CGT planning; top 3 LICs; S32 update; Renko charts; setting Josephine alerts; pulled pork on PTL; stocks and high interest rates; defining “independent director”; how quickly to buy after a sell; the difference between a Josephine versus a falling knife; gold USD v AUD; the ACL chart; operating cashflows and lease payments.
QAV S05E18 — Blood On The Streets
There’s blood on the streets! We introduce the underlying commodity Josephine rule, MML is now X64, aluminium is a sell, iron ore sell fudge, RBA lifts interest rates, Rule 1 price for penny stocks, pulled pork on PDL, what is a “Cash settled total return swap”, investing during interest rate rises, Alumina v Aluminium, Rule #1 alerts when you’ve bought a particular stock in a few different tranches, GMA and the Impact of rising interest rates, when to factor a dividend back into the price.
QAV S05E17 — Profit Pause
We’re talking about the Berkshire AGM, poor fund manage performance, pulled pork on AMP, the TRS CEO departure, CCP’s drop, linear v log charts for 3PTL, and everyone’s fear of low sell Iines.
QAV S05E16 — Chairman Mabb
We are joined by guest Steven Mabb, Chairman of the Australian Shareholders Association, to talk about the importance (or not) of voting in AGMs and how the ASA can help. Later we talk about: BRK AGM this weekend, China’s lockdown, Netflix’s stock price, PGL on our buy list, the Solomons and China, the BHP/WPL de-merger, over-exposure to mining and China, what to do with stocks that go nowhere, why TK prefers a LIC instead of a ETF in case of emergency, the importance of EPS growth, the differences between ROIC and ROE, and AMP’s ‘qualified opinion’.
QAV S05E15 — When You Predict
Afterpay losses explode; natural gas prices at 13-year high; Stocks of the week; Portfolio update; selling SFC; Yield curve has righted itself; BRK has invested $22bn in purchases this year; PRU pulled pork; where to find board ownership if no SD; foreign connections to a non-democratic country; How does TK determine number of stocks he owns?; the impact the Federal and State Govt schemes on GMA; buying stocks with a small spread between the buy & sell 3PTL; digital security measures for protecting our portfolio’s in a SelfWealth scenario.
QAV S05E14 — Know Your Product
RIP Chris Bailey; Platinum is a sell, but is ZIM a platinum company?; How will the federal election affect us as investors?; BEN is the pulled pork; the actual connection between Reserve Bank rates and mortgage rates; investing in diverse management teams.
QAV S05E13 — Trouble At The Mill
Financial health RATING v TREND in the checklist, fund manager performance, Ukraine war driving up mining and energy profits, CAA aluminium pass through, RBA rates, PP on MAM, Tony coming to QLD, Salary Sacrifice into super, OP/CF vs SD OP/CF, FFX sovereign risk and poor financial performance.
QAV S05E12 — Goin Fishin
AMI bad news; Navexa and CAGR; Stocks of the week; Santos’ big discovery; Max Walsh RIP; Twiggy’s perpetual train; BPNL bloodbath; ABA pulled pork; how to understand yield curve inversion; the psychology of investing; ECX and petrol prices; How does TK manage his portfolio when he’s on holidays?
QAV S05E11 — Flogs
Hamish Douglass resigns from Magellan board; Russia spiralling towards $210b default nightmare; “Asset Manager Capitalism”; Copper is a buy; GRR is now a Star Stock; MQG is back on the buy list; pulled pork on MQG; petrol and EVs; Buy Now or Later; how quickly Tony sells; are we crazy to be selling commodity stocks at all time highs?; IMA corporate action; understanding “right of use” assets; should we take industry sector into account?; sell line for MAD.
QAV S05E10 — The Wet Finger Test
Update from Denis in Ukraine; YAL dividend and drop; Copper is a sell; Another construction company collapse; ASG pulled pork; buying new entries; MML CEO’s sudden exit; WGX announced capital raising; leaving a 10% gap between buy and sell price; CAA and the aluminium price; how to evaluate stocks that are relatively recent entrants on the ASX.
QAV S05E09 — Coat Lifters
War driving demand for precious metals; how to gross up the sell price of a stock going ex-dividend; tech pipe dreams; new consensus target date filter; Denis contributions; MML revenue drop and bad news; rebuying a stock you’ve just sold; using EMA and SMA or “price change 1 month” to calculate a Josephine; is performance better over reporting season?
QAV S05E08 — The Sound Of Cannon
Markets and War; bank rate increase; MWY bad results; Construction collapse; Berkshire’s annual letter; GRR results; Portfolio average hold time; outdated consensus valuations; is five year relative strength important; calculating CAGR in Excel; red flag if DPR of greater than 100%.
QAV S05E07 — Overconfidence
This week we’re talking about Navexa portfolio issues, overconfidence in investors, Murph resigns from Berkshire, Berkshire invests in a crypto bank, Munger’s recent Q&A, BFG’s money laundering problems, HUM’s acquisition by LFS, CGF back on the buy list, S32 is Tony’s pulled pork, Ares buying into GMA, FMG is a Josephine, and then we answer your questions about Grantham’s bubble warnings, using trend lines to know when to cancel a Josephine, the iron ore sell price, buying stocks close to the sell line, using company market cap figure relative to Index Funds to determine whether a company’s share price could be at risk of a near future increase or decrease, kissing a few frogs to get a prince, holding on just for the takeover premium and FEX’s very low sell line.
QAV S05E06 — The Pendulum
Copper is a buy again, why VUK’s audit it NOT qualified, ASX CEO resigns, the impact of petrol prices, portfolio update, SGR has a qualified audit, NUF is the pulled pork, how to work with a stock you inherit, why we have no cut-off for low Quality scores, Tony’s average holding period, Andrew’s sliding Rule 1.
QAV S05E05 — Scientific Fiddling
As we’re joined by special guest Taylor Reilly, we talk about flatulent labels, redefining how a stock comes out of being a Josephine, our portfolio performance for the FY, a pulled pork on CCP, Greenblatt and LEAPS, when to sell after a 3PTL breach, should MAM be on the list, what to do with stocks we get from a demerger, what to do with MXI, more about property v shares, and and whether or not we need to check for a qualified audit if it’s an ASX200/300 company.
QAV S05E04 — Carry A Towel
Jam packed show this week! Losing money is one thing, losing your nerve is everything ; Iron ore hits $150/ton; CCP results are out, Stock price up 7% over last 2 days; ASX200 down 6.3% for January; How to calculate the Gold price; Stock of the week WLD; hostile takeover of IMA; investing during reporting season; the Fed put; re-buying recent sells; fudging 3PTL sells; Josephine charts; “A” grade companies aren’t “A” grade stocks; concentrating portfolio when there’s nothing to buy; using LEAPs; trading halts; Copper companies churning out cash; 3PTLs for WAF; BHP’s demerger; Rule no.1, should it be applied to a holding as a whole (average price) or to individual parcels?
QAV S05E03 — Frogger
Talking about the current market volatility, and whether or not we should wait it out and go to cash; we discuss recent articles talking about “investing” in tech stocks and crypto; deep dive on RIO; explain how the Bank Bill Swap Rate works; whether or not new investors should wait until the end of reporting season; getting back to the ‘Buy Follows Sell’ rule and how it applies to CBA; possible reasons why KRM has gone up and MQG has gone down; and the challenges in placing orders at market value.
QAV S05E02 — Howard Loses Marks
On this episode we talk about MYR becoming a sell; Tony’s problems with Howard Marks’ latest memo; the new AF sheet; and our stocks of the week, including Tony’s pulled pork on BPT.
In the club episode we answer questions about using West Texas v Brent Crude, using Martin Roth’s Top Stock book, paying attention to announcements during confession season, and what impact interest rate rises might have on QAV in the coming months.
QAV S05E01 — Bolshie Bankers
Indonesia temporarily bans coal exports; GWR up 80% in 3 weeks; ANZ pulled pork; NTD SPP and Tony’s thoughts on SPPs in general; CBA worth a punt; iron stock update; How often to update sell alerts.
QAV S05E00 — The Cleansing
In our first episode for 2022, we’re talking about my confusion over some recent 3PTL rule changes, platinum being a buy again, what a “cleansing prospectus” is, Gary’s stellar results, some changes to the buy list, a pulled pork on CIA, CAA and aluminium, Nufarm’s cash flow, how to treat companies we’ve sold using R1, why we use operating cash flow instead of free cash flow, and whether or not CDD is a sell.
QAV S04E52 — Best Of 2021
It’s time for our last show of the year and my annual tradition of trying to pick some highlights from the last 12 months. This year I’m mostly focusing on the journey we went through with iron ore. Back in January 2021 we were talking about FMG and the stellar run it had been on, and why we weren’t going to rush into selling it, particularly when it had a very low sell line. But as the year progress, Tony started to talk more and more about watching the iron ore commodity price which, even though the CEO of FMG assured us would stay strong for a long time, started to slide in the second half of the year, prompting Tony to make some painful decisions.…
QAV S04E51 — In the Rough
In this episode we’re talking about MYR and LAU warnings, replacing GAP with GWR, CAA upgrade to guidance, Trading View commodity alerts, our stocks of the week (FEX, GMA), our best portfolio stocks for the week, the world’s second tallest building is a warning sign, and CGF’s business model.
In the Club edition, we also talk about selling and buying back into FMG instead of just holding it, MFG’s collapse and what their management might be thinking about right now, and more details on the story about Tony’s 20x return on MND back in the day.
QAV S04E50 — The Gibbonator
We chat with Luke “The Gibbonator” Gibson about his QAV-based YouTube channel “The Gibson Hustle”, about copper becoming a sell, iron ore becoming a buy, whether or not BHP is an iron ore or a copper company, Nufarm chemicals, and Magellan’s woes.
In the club edition, we also talk about platinum becoming a buy again, AJL’s qualified audit, our stocks of the week (GRR, GWR), if we should sell any stock that drops below 10% at any time, ATL’s merger news (ugh), how to trade during bull, bear and roo markets, BSL and iron ore, value price vs fair price, and CDD’s capital return. Then in after hours, it’s a lot of Beatles talk again!
QAV S04E49 — 2021 The Dumpster Fire
This episode is mostly a recap of lessons learned, highlights and lowlights of 2021. We talk about our portfolio performances (eg the QAV portfolio, and our own personal portfolios) in this difficult calendar year, Tony talks about how there seems to be a crisis every three years, and we answer a couple of questions about calculated sentiment and staying fully invested during downturns.
QAV S04E48 — Get Back Omicron
This week we talk about the market’s reaction to Omicron, the new AF worksheet, builders collapsing, Howard Mark’s latest memo, new sells, our top stocks of last week, our stocks picks for this week and whether or not we should go to cash in the current market and wait for things to improve.
In the club edition, we also talk about why we’re not buying into ETFs and LICs, what TK thinks about swapping winners for something that is on the buy list, and if we should sell any share that has a 10% drop at any time, regardless of buy price.
And, of course, The Beatles.
QAV S04E47 — Xi Is Listening
This week: missing the SUN sell; New Brettalator version; keeping an eye on the sell lines for the stocks of the week; the three fingers of the economy; the MQG SPP; the WAF SPP; Top 3 Dummy Portfolio stocks for the week; NAB is removed from the Buy list; SA enquiry into Kangaroo Island port; CCP and STO fessed up to Job Keeper; BPT CEO resigns suddenly; Why did FMG rise when Iron Ore dropped; GAP price drop after forecasting a loss for the half; Stocks Of The Week — ATP & SUL.
In the Club: is it best to buy from the top of the list or with new entries; the psychology of buying shares at all time highs; and avoiding getting lost in the micro weeds.
QAV S04E46 — The Three Fingers
This week: missing the SUN sell; New Brettalator version; keeping an eye on the sell lines for the stocks of the week; the three fingers of the economy; the MQG SPP; the WAF SPP; Top 3 Dummy Portfolio stocks for the week; NAB is removed from the Buy list; SA enquiry into Kangaroo Island port; CCP and STO fessed up to Job Keeper; BPT CEO resigns suddenly; Why did FMG rise when Iron Ore dropped; GAP price drop after forecasting a loss for the half; Stocks Of The Week — ATP & SUL.
In the Club: is it best to buy from the top of the list or with new entries; the psychology of buying shares at all time highs; and avoiding getting lost in the micro weeds.
QAV S04E45 — Jiggery Pokery
This week we’re talking about our top three stocks from last week (PRU, BFG, CVL), SHJ (the quiet sleeper), why you shouldn’t innovate until you’re a QAV black belt, why we should NOT filter Price-to-Operating Cash Flow 7 (whoops), and why Rule #1 is important. In the Club edition, we talk about the stocks of the week (WGX, ABA), the failed GCY acquisition (by WGX), the mistakes Tony heard on another investing podcast, whether or not directors taking large positions in their own company deserves extra credit, the weird CBA sell line, MAD’s weird share capital numbers, IHVV’s returns, the MQG SPP, Tony’s experience with LIC returns, and how much real estate is enough.
QAV S04E44 — Quo Vadis
This week we’re congratulating Brett and Rowan on their performance, talking about KPT turning into KIL, ZGL’s sudden collapse, new ANZ numbers, the iron ore chart fudge, our top three performing stocks from last week, Tony’s stock tips of the week (IMA and AMI), whether we should hold for a minimum of 12 weeks, GCY’s PE history, what Level 5 of QAV might look like, explaining the flat bottom rule again, ‘massaging’ the process, new bank rate, and behavioural shifts for becoming better investors.