All Australian Episodes

This is the audio tran­script of a Zoom group chat Tony and I did with some of our QAV Club mem­bers on 7 Sept 2020. Lots of great ques­tions were answered.

This week’s episode con­tains extra invest­ing fudge! We dis­cuss Wilshire GDP / Shiller PE / CAPE ratios, what red flags to look for in com­pa­ny reports, how to score a New 3pt Upturn, Short­man, War­ren Buf­fet­t’s secret, and Tony dis­cuss­es some of the lat­est com­pa­nies that he has eval­u­at­ed.

On this episode we talk about why we are not try­ing to com­pete with APT investors; Tony’s recent stock buys and analy­sis; how he uses his “watch list” and why we’ve changed its name to the “buy list”; we we’re still man­u­al­ly cal­cu­lat­ing the price-to-cash ratio instead of using Stock Doctor’s fig­ure; improved word­ing on how to draw a three point trend SELL line; and why some­times a stock with great num­bers might have a falling knife.

We start off this episode with a recap of last week’s jour­nal entries, then answer your ques­tions about when Tony sells a stock, how to build a port­fo­lio from scratch, the pros and cons of dif­fer­ent Buy and Sell order types, and which stocks are in Tony’s port­fo­lio.

On this Q&A episode, TK answers ques­tions about whether stocks that have been bought in an Up trend per­form bet­ter than those bought after a break out from a Down Trend, about the rel­a­tive impor­tance of mar­ket depth for LYL, whether or not prof­it tak­ing makes any sense, how he uses the the 52 week high AFR list, HUG lines, the three point trend line for ANZ, and the log­ic of sell­ing AGD.

TK talks me through how to re-eval­u­ate the watch­list when we are ready to buy some­thing and then we answer your ques­tions about the recent­ly added Stock Doc­tor fil­ters (SDMax, Finan­cial Health Trend, etc), the GEAR buy last week, how much time Tony spends on his port­fo­lio each day and the pros and cons of hav­ing a port­fo­lio of only 10 stocks instead of 20.

Today “St Antho­ny” answers your ques­tions, reveals the true cost of send­ing kids to pri­vate school, and explains how he approach­es rais­ing a wealthy child.

Tony talks about some of his recent “mus­ings” regard­ing bank stocks and com­par­ing the results of his analy­sis of using Stock Doc­tor fil­ters ver­sus our three-point trend lines. Then we talk about his rea­sons for our recent port­fo­lio buys and sells.

We talk about the recent Berk­shire Hath­away AGM, Tony “mus­es” about buy­ing NAB with­out wait­ing for pos­i­tive sen­ti­ment (shock! hor­ror!), dis­cuss­es some new the­o­ries about using Stock Doc­tor fil­ters, and then he answers a ton of your ques­tions about — pyra­mid­ing — whether or not Tony ever sets a mar­gin where he always cash­es in the prof­it — how to cal­cu­late  the intrin­sic val­ue of each of the top 20 stocks — and a heap of ques­tions about draw­ing three-point trend lines.

We’re joined by two young val­ue investors, Jack­son Lee and Ricky Yeo from the Syd­ney Super­in­vestors meet­up, who talk about how they man­age their port­fo­lios and what they con­sid­er to be their hot tips of good val­ue stocks.

Today we answer your ques­tions about why we’re buy­ing back into the mar­ket even though Tony has doubts over the recov­ery — how we account for the qual­i­ty of man­age­ment in our analy­sis — how much atten­tion Tony pays to vol­ume of shares trad­ed — Stock Doc­tor’s “Price to Cash­flow” and “Price to NTA” fil­ters — how to cal­cu­late three-point trend line sell sig­nals — how the check­list weights ‘qual­i­ty’ vs ‘val­ue’ met­rics — how patient Tony is with a stock if it drops soon after he buys it (ver­sus “you breach you gone”) — Stock Doc­tor’s dilut­ed weight­ed no. of ordi­nary shares vs ‘Ful­ly Paid Ord. Shares’ — HAW’s future cash flow — Mil­ton Cor­po­ra­tion’s con­fer­ence call — and how to go about set­ting up a brand new port­fo­lio.

Chris Tate from Talk­ing Trad­ing and The Trad­ing Game joins us today to talk about his approach to invest­ing, futures trad­ing and tur­tle trad­ing. Then we answer some lis­ten­er ques­tions about whether or not the mar­ket has priced in the com­ing eco­nom­ic car­nage.

How are Aus­trali­a’s two mil­lion small busi­ness­es cop­ing with the lock­down? Is the gov­ern­ment stim­u­lus help­ing? What will hap­pen to them on the oth­er side of the cri­sis? To help us get our heads around these ques­tions, we’re joined today by Kane Kelfkens, own­er of The Fam­i­ly Jew­els, a jew­ellery busi­ness with sev­er­al out­lets in Syd­ney.

Then we answer some of your invest­ing ques­tions, about dol­lar cost aver­ag­ing, the pos­si­bil­i­ty of a US cur­ren­cy deval­u­a­tion, the best sources to find stocks, and whether or not Tony sells his entire hold­ing or just a part of it when it breach­es the down­wards three-point trend line.