QAV AU #912 — Chicken Little

Audio­QAV AU 912 Club

[00:00:00]

Cameron Reil­ly: Wel­come to QAV Aus­tralia, episode 9 1 2. This is the 24th of March, 2026 off air. Tony was just telling me he thinks it’s all fun.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

Cameron Reil­ly: The Trump stuff.

Tony Kynas­ton: it is. Well, it, I think it was, we’re a cou­ple of hours an hour past the end of the 48 hour dead­line, so I was hop­ing we’d come on there and there’d be like, you know, the mis­siles are fly­ing, and we’d be on

Cameron Reil­ly: hop­ing for

Tony Kynas­ton: watch­ing CNN and Well, it’s a res­o­lu­tion, isn’t it? It’s some­thing, some­thing hap­pen­ing instead of a taco again from Don­ald.

Oh no, we’re in nego­ti­a­tions. It’s all good. And then Tara’s going, no, it’s fake news. We have, we haven’t, who is this guy? Don­ald Trump. He has­n’t talked to us. It’s just, it’s just, uh, I think it’s fun.

Cameron Reil­ly: assump­tion is he is just buy­ing time until the Marines land­ed

Tony Kynas­ton: Cor­rect,

Cameron Reil­ly: island

Tony Kynas­ton: cor­rect. I.

Cameron Reil­ly: tries to see how that goes.

Tony Kynas­ton: We have seen this movie before, haven’t we?

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: When they had, when they [00:01:00] had nego­ti­a­tions and Ter­an came out and said, this was real­ly fruit­ful.

Cameron Reil­ly: yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: Next day the aero sirens went off.

Cameron Reil­ly: yeah, yeah. Trump, I think he’s just mud­dy­ing the waters,

Tony Kynas­ton: Of course.

Cameron Reil­ly: but the mar­kets react. price was down. Now, I, I want­ed to ask you about this, um, I saw in your notes you said oil is now a Josephine, but it’s not. look at my month­ly chart,

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay,

Cameron Reil­ly: it’s, uh, still well and tru­ly in by ter­ri­to­ry. But if I look at the dai­ly chart, dumb, dumb, or the hourly chart, no data here.

Yeah. Okay. One

Tony Kynas­ton: well, it’s down today any­way.

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, it, well, even the dai­ly chart, it’s still up. You, this is, oh, sor­ry. This is iron ore I’m look­ing at. Okay. Iron ore is still

Tony Kynas­ton: I know oil.

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Let’s look at oil. Wow. Oil is def­i­nite­ly a [00:02:00] buy. Like my month­ly chart still has oil at $103 81

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay.

Cameron Reil­ly: spike on the end.

Tony Kynas­ton: Well the back­ground for my com­ment in the notes today was I did, I start­ed the pulled pork last night on Karun, and the oil price was a lit­tle bit much high­er I think, than it was this morn­ing when I woke up. So I thought it’s prob­a­bly Josephine.

Cameron Reil­ly: Mm. Well, if I look at the month­ly chart for Brent Crude Oil, it’s still, yeah. $103 80. Still very, very much in bio ter­ri­to­ry. I look at the dai­ly Chart, it’s dropped, uh, down to a hun­dred and there’s back up to $103 81.

Tony Kynas­ton: Real­ly today,

Cameron Reil­ly: yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: huh?

Cameron Reil­ly: so it was at 112 on March 20th,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron Reil­ly: a hun­dred on March 23rd, and is back up to 104 basi­cal­ly.

So I think the mar­ket’s gone. You know [00:03:00] what?

Tony Kynas­ton: Taco. Taco who wants tacos.

Wow. Yeah. So it’s gone up today. ’cause I, I think it was like, I had a look this morn­ing when I got up and it was like 95 or 98 us.

Cameron Reil­ly: So to deter­mine whether or not it’s a Josephine, would you be look­ing at the month­ly chart or the dai­ly

Tony Kynas­ton: No, the month­ly.

Cameron Reil­ly: right.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Yep. I must admit, I assumed that it dropped so much overnight that it would gone back to being a Josephine with­out check­ing

Cameron Reil­ly: Well, I think that, uh, you know, the, you was talk­ing about why it’s fun, but one of the things that this peri­od teach­es me as the junior mem­ber of the QAV uh, Fed­er­a­tion is that, uh,

Tony Kynas­ton: num­ber, num­ber one.

Cameron Reil­ly: things change. It’s, it’s almost on a dai­ly basis, it’s whip I whiplash is what I thought I’d call the

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: [00:04:00] episode. It’s whiplash

Tony Kynas­ton: Right.

Cameron Reil­ly: thing right

Tony Kynas­ton: Set up. Right, mate. Call man.

Cameron Reil­ly: It’s com­plete­ly and utter­ly insan­i­ty.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: there’s noth­ing to be done. Like I’m get­ting emails from peo­ple every day, text mes­sages from peo­ple every day, QAV mem­bers, you know, what should I do? Should I sell?

Tony Kynas­ton: Real­ly?

Cameron Reil­ly: you know, peo­ple are get­ting pan­icky. I’ve seen, you know, my down 11% in the last 30 days.

What should I do?

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Yeah. Lemme get the crys­tal ball.

Cameron Reil­ly: I have an AI set up now to auto reply to those emails. It’s just like, if, if the, if there’s any vari­a­tion of what should I do, it just says, have you not been lis­ten­ing? [00:05:00] No. In all seri­ous­ness, I’m not, I’m not being dis­re­spect­ful. No, but we just look, you do what­ev­er you say, I say

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: would say is we con­tin­ue to fol­low the rules. You could do what­ev­er the hell you want, it’s your life. what­ev­er helps you sleep at night,

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: get you through.

But we will fol­low the rules. We’ll fol­low the rule one, we’ll fol­low the three point trend line, we’ll fol­low the com­mod­i­ty trend line and we’ll just play it out because I, I, I have come to under­stand this. This is nor­mal. This is nor­mal chaos. Every, every, every peri­od of volatil­i­ty and chaos that I’ve QA VD through has seemed absolute­ly unique and bonkers and crazy.

Tony Kynas­ton: That’s right.

Cameron Reil­ly: But I’ve seen enough of ’em now. So the first one was COVID, the sec­ond one was Ukraine

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: [00:06:00] rates, coin­cid­ing inter­est rates going up after the, you know, um, mod­ern mon­e­tary the­o­ry, the­o­ry failed. And this is the, prob­a­bly the third. Oh, there was also, no, there was also Trump’s, uh, lib­er­a­tion

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron Reil­ly: tar­iff non­sense.

Tony Kynas­ton: Uhhuh.

Cameron Reil­ly: one seen in six, sev­en years we’ve been

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: And it’s like, oh yeah. So it’s, it’s almost one every 18 months.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm.

Cameron Reil­ly: What? Every 18 months we have some sort of, uh, holy shit. The sky is falling chick­en lit­tle moment.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron Reil­ly: And I’m, it’s kind of bor­ing. After a while you’re like, oh, okay.

Yeah, anoth­er one of these. Every­one’s pan­ick­ing and I’m going, yeah, just, you know, buy­ing oppor­tu­ni­ties will present them­selves as a result of this. We’ll buy it the bot­tom and we’ll write it back up. And peo­ple. Wet them­selves and run for the hills will not be around when the buy­ing oppor­tu­ni­ties are pre­sent­ing them­selves.

[00:07:00] Um, we just man­age our loss­es on the way down care­ful­ly. we nev­er know what’s gonna hap­pen. Uh, it could turn around tomor­row, you have no idea. But COVID was like that. We remem­ber us say­ing at the begin­ning of COVID, we could not be buy­ing any­thing for a year. We had no

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm

Cameron Reil­ly: we might be, I remem­ber us going, what are we gonna talk about for a year? Like, there’s noth­ing to do. ’cause for a cou­ple of weeks there, the

Tony Kynas­ton: mm

Cameron Reil­ly: say­ing don’t buy any­thing. So we were like, well, we’ll, you know, just about what’s going on.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. We start­ed inter­view­ing peo­ple about MNT and all sorts of things, did­n’t we? Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: And we had econ­o­mists on and that kin­da stuff, but then it just turned around and, and so you have no idea what next week is gonna bring.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: you can do is just play it day by day and real­ize that A, this is

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: B it will bot­tom out even­tu­al­ly and turn around. And when it does, we will be here. We will have cash and we will be buy­ing things. And then the mar­ket will [00:08:00] go bonkers at some point. ’cause

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron Reil­ly: stop pan­ick­ing

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron Reil­ly: already be invest­ed.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: ride that up. That’s where we get our So, uh, look­ing at the port­fo­lios. So the big dif­fer­ence for me between this cri­sis and the oth­er cri­sis­es that I’ve seen in time doing the show is all of the port­fo­lios except my super, my super still sucks us, but the rest of my port­fo­lios. Uh uh oh. Tony’s pulled out the cross­word puz­zle. He is so bored already. He’s gonna do a

Tony Kynas­ton: I’m, you know what I’m doing? No, I’m not. I, I don’t have a piece of paper near­by. This is the clos­est piece of paper I’ve got. I’m mak­ing notes of how to reply once I can get a word in edge­wise.

Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, it’s like that. You got­ta saw back and you’re get­ting snip­py.

Tony Kynas­ton: I was, I was try­ing to do it. I was try­ing to do it qui­et­ly. But you’re pay­ing atten­tion to the video stream.

Cameron Reil­ly: [00:09:00] if I look at, I’ll just do the light group. So the light port­fo­lio is down lit­tle, rough­ly 11% in the last 30 days ver­sus the all odds down 7%, let’s say. But if I look at all time do, uh, we’re up 16% ver­sus 9%

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: We’ve dropped a lot, but we had so much buffer there

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm.

Cameron Reil­ly: that we can still afford to. Drop a lot before we get back to, you know, neu­tral with the all odds because we, we had that huge growth over the last months, you know.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: up now.

Tony Kynas­ton: It’s okay if you look, I was sit­ting here bit­ing my tongue, writ­ing out points. Uh, so point num­ber one you said, you said before that, yeah,

Cameron Reil­ly: talks a lot.

Tony Kynas­ton: I’ve got­ta go back to 10 min­utes.

Cameron Reil­ly: B.

Tony Kynas­ton: 10 min­utes ago you said

Cameron Reil­ly: [00:10:00] Wow.

Tony Kynas­ton: uh, every 18 months it’s chaos and it’s, it’s, this is a unique prob­lem and it’s not unique. These, the, if you step back a lit­tle bit, you know, the fact that it looks unique is actu­al­ly a sign that it’s a volatile peri­od, but that’s not, that’s path of the course in terms of being an investor.

It’s, it’s nev­er, it’s the, the, the fact that we’re going through a peri­od of chaos is not unique. It’s gonna hap­pen, as you say, every 18 months or so. Prob­a­bly every two years has been my aver­age over 30 odd years of watch­ing it and being invest­ed. So it’s not unique, just, you know, it’s because it’s not, it looks unique.

Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: like it was the end of the

Tony Kynas­ton: Cor­rect.

Cameron Reil­ly: We were

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: a major land war involv­ing what­ev­er coun­tries,

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm.

Cameron Reil­ly: you know, that’s gonna be

Tony Kynas­ton: NATO on Rus­sia.

Cameron Reil­ly: You

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: it, every­one looks like, oh my God, the sky’s falling.

Tony Kynas­ton: And because when, when some­thing like that hap­pens, the media goes and rings up some­one who’s gonna give ’em a [00:11:00] head­line, right?

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: uh, Rus­sia, Rus­si­a’s invad­ed Ukraine. Tell us what this could mean for world his­to­ry. They’ll ring up some­one who goes, oh my God, NATO at war with Rus­sia. This is ter­ri­ble. It’s gonna be the end of civ­i­liza­tion as we know it.

Cameron Reil­ly: Mm-hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: so that’s what gets into our brains and not, not try­ing to dimin­ish the Ukraine war or any­thing like that. It’s very seri­ous. But, but we tend to cat­a­stro­phize, or the media tends to cat­a­stro­phize for us, and they’re doing it right now. What does it mean for the Straits of film war? What does it mean?

Well, we could be, you know, we could have petrol rationing in a few days and, and yeah, we could, I’m not, again, not try­ing to dimin­ish the prob­lem, but, but it’s the, it’s the extrem­i­ties that make the head­line. So the.

Cameron Reil­ly: I think your point is if you zoom out enough, a

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: is a cri­sis. And we

Tony Kynas­ton: Cor­rect. A frame­work based around how to deal with that.

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: a cycli­cal

Tony Kynas­ton: Cor­rect.

Cameron Reil­ly: every cou­ple of years, and there’s noth­ing to be done about it. And, and the sys­tem’s gonna take a, you know, we we’re gonna go through a peri­od of [00:12:00] tur­bu­lence, volatil­i­ty, but unlike the Air Cana­da flight, you hope you don’t crash into a, uh,

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh,

Cameron Reil­ly: firetruck.

Tony Kynas­ton: that was ter­ri­ble, was­n’t it?

Cameron Reil­ly: Crazy,

Tony Kynas­ton: out whether that was because of cuts to air traf­fic con­trollers on, not in the us.

Cameron Reil­ly: uh, not yet, but

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay.

Cameron Reil­ly: got­ta be your guess. Right?

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: first guess. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Now they’re putting ICE agents to work because the, the, uh, lines are too long at the screen­ing places and air­ports too. So it’s just a. Yeah, I saw, I saw some­one, um, which I think was a fake meme attrib­uted to Don­ald Trump, although I don’t think he actu­al­ly did it.

Put out a map with the Straits of Amer­i­ca instead of the Straits of Horus. And I feel like that works on dif­fer­ent lev­els. It’s, you know, fun­ny ’cause of the, what, renam­ing of Gulf of Mex­i­co. But it’s, um, it’s fun­ny ’cause like Amer­i­ca’s pret­ty close at the moment too. It’s, it’s on, its, it’s, noth­ing’s work­ing.

It’s like, it’s on its knees

Cameron Reil­ly: mm

Tony Kynas­ton: and I know it’s, that’s again, an exag­ger­a­tion and cat­a­stro­phiz­ing. But, um, [00:13:00] yeah, when you’ve got planes crash­ing into fire engines at LaGuardia, it’s, there’s some­thing wrong

Cameron Reil­ly: Mm.

Tony Kynas­ton: basi­cal­ly. Any­way, be get­ting back to it.

Cameron Reil­ly: puz­zle.

Tony Kynas­ton: Back to my cross­word puz­zle. Yeah. Num­ber three. Well, num­ber two is, um, I remem­ber just after we start­ed doing the pod­cast, it must’ve been around COVID and I did a fir my first inter­view with, uh, shares for begin­ners with Phil Mus Ello.

And, you know, he was exact­ly like this. Oh my God, what’s gonna hap­pen? The mar­ket’s down and who knows what, you know, what’s the best mag­a­zine and blah, blah, blah. And I’m like, sit­u­a­tion nor­mal. This is how the mar­ket works. And, and he made that the title of the, the pod­cast episode Sit­u­a­tion Nor­mal. And once you sort of real­ize that it, it does­n’t change the sit­u­a­tion, but if you’ve got a frame­work to deal with it, you, as we said at the start off air before we start­ed, you can sit back and have fun and just, just watch the Key­stone Cops make absolute ass­es of them­selves try­ing to work through [00:14:00] a anoth­er sit­u­a­tion.

And, um, so that’s the sec­ond, the, I think the thing that’s a bit dif­fer­ent for me this time is that. I have in my hold­ing so many stocks, which are way above their cell lines. And they’ve, even though they’ve come back a lot in the last cou­ple of weeks, they’re still not cells. And I think that’s a bit dif­fer­ent to what, what it was in COVID when, um, it was, I was being forced to sell much quick­er than I am at the moment.

So that’ll be inter­est­ing. Do we, do we, well, we had a big year last year. We had a big year.

Cameron Reil­ly: right, but your port­fo­lio was quite when we went into COVID or 2020. It was­n’t COVID, it was 2022

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: rule one spi­ral.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: Why did­n’t you have enough buffer in your port­fo­lio to. You dun­no, because

Tony Kynas­ton: dun­no.

Cameron Reil­ly: that in the last week.

Tony Kynas­ton: I,

Cameron Reil­ly: why is this dif­fer­ent to

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: QAV ’cause what I remem­ber [00:15:00] from 2022 peri­od, the dum­my port­fo­lio, I did­n’t have to sell a lot. light port­fo­lios, which were brand new, the first one, sec­ond one I had to recy­cle a lot because noth­ing had had a chance to estab­lish itself.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: I just bought them all and then they

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: one.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron Reil­ly: um, yeah, I was won­der­ing about you and my super was kind of new at the time too.

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, if you, I, I can’t, I can’t remem­ber back to 2022 specif­i­cal­ly, but at the moment, like I had­n’t trad­ed any­thing for at least 12 months, and I’ve only trad­ed one thing

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: in the last week. So, um, yeah, it’s one trad­ing in 12 months ver­sus a more nor­mal cycle, which is to trade prob­a­bly half the port­fo­lio.

Cameron Reil­ly: right.

Tony Kynas­ton: Um, so it could be, that could be that the stop-loss­es are much like, like the rule one, stop loss­es are pret­ty much out­ta the equa­tion at the moment. Um, for what I’m hold­ing and the three point trend lines as for that, like, it’s a bit of a, the, the pro­file of stocks I’m hold­ing, if I think about. Per [00:16:00] min­ing and parental, even though they’re com­ing back a lot, they were a long, they had such huge increas­es in 2025.

They’re a long way above their cell lines.

Cameron Reil­ly: Right?

Tony Kynas­ton: Um, so I think, I think that’s prob­a­bly the rea­son, but I, I don’t know for sure, but it’s, it’s a bit dif­fer­ent. So I’m, well, I’m hop­ing is that when things turn around, I, I don’t have to trade. I don’t have to sell ’em and go to cash and then find some­thing else that this, you know, um, is a time when, uh, you know, hav­ing a a, a stock which is way above its sell line might work for us because we don’t have to trade, but the stocks turn around and we just hold ’em for longer.

Is, is what I hope, uh, which would be nice.

Cameron Reil­ly: yeah. Any­thing more? What’s,

Tony Kynas­ton: No, that’s it.

Cameron Reil­ly: That’s it.

Tony Kynas­ton: That’s, that’s it. Thank you.

Cameron Reil­ly: Okay, well, uh, back to my port­fo­lio updates. Um, yeah, all of the, all [00:17:00] of the light port­fo­lios, the dum­my port­fo­lio, my super port­fo­lio are all down about 11% in the last 30 days. The, um, the, uh, STW 200 is down about sev­en, so, but we, it’s obvi­ous­ly turned around in the last day a lit­tle bit. They’re start­ing to recov­er. The US port­fo­lios are inter­est­ing. The main US dum­my port­fo­lio is down about 8% in the last 30 days ver­sus the s and p down about five. The QAV Amer­i­ca light port­fo­lio is actu­al­ly up 2.3% in the last 30 days the index down for, so

Tony Kynas­ton: A cou­ple of will stocks, I think in there. Is there? Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: of oil stocks.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: So, uh, it’s, it’s, uh, han­dled this well and so, and like, uh, kind of, kind of crazy, um, [00:18:00] how much some of them are up, like cord ener­gy is up 37%, um, in the last sort of cou­ple of weeks.

So they’ve sort of had a real boost. But any­way, that’s where the port­fo­lios are at. Bit of a bit of a hic­cup, but as I said, like the dum­my port­fo­lio over the last, if I look at the last one, I don’t know where are we, March this

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: year, still up 13% for the finan­cial year ver­sus the index up 1.75%.

So

Tony Kynas­ton: Woohoo.

Cameron Reil­ly: that puts it in per­spec­tive.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, exact­ly.

Cameron Reil­ly: 1200, uh, 12 times mar­ket. 11 times mar­ket maybe. Alright, well mov­ing on to oth­er news. RBA lift­ed inter­est rates last week, Tony, as you pre­dict­ed,

Tony Kynas­ton: I think I’m one from 10.

Cameron Reil­ly: [00:19:00] I think it’s a

Tony Kynas­ton: It’s a trend. Yeah, it’s a oh two. Okay. And it was a five four deci­sion, so I came close to get­ting it wrong again, try.

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. Right. So every­one has to make sure if you’re doing your own check­list,

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm,

Cameron Reil­ly: change the cash rate.

Tony Kynas­ton: that’s cor­rect. Yep. And in a cou­ple of weeks the aver­age mort­gage rate will change too, as the flow through to from the banks to mort­gages and we’ll have to change that. Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: Chal­lenger Tony CGF reduced their PPM offer val­ue dur­ing the week.

Tony Kynas­ton: Bas­tards.

Cameron Reil­ly: Revised non-bind­ing offer for pep­per mon­ey. Chal­lenger Lim­it­ed announces that fur­ther to its update on 9th of Feb­ru­ary, 2026, it has sub­mit­ted a revised con­fi­den­tial, non-bind­ing con­di­tion­al pro­pos­al acquire joint­ly with Pep­per Group A NZ Hold [00:20:00] Co lim­it­ed Pep­per Mon­ey Lim­it­ed. Under the revised pro­pos­al, chal­lengers reduced the offer price from $2 60 per share to $2 25 per share, less the final ful­ly franked pep­per mon­ey, 2025 div­i­dend of 7.80 cents per pep­per, mon­ey share, any spe­cial div­i­dend. The revised pro­pos­al rep­re­sents chal­lenges best and final offer in the absence of a supe­ri­or pro­pos­al. What do you make of that, Tony?

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Um.

Uh, just try­ing to remem­ber the rea­son now I’ve for­got­ten it, but, uh, some­thing hap­pened, I think it might have been inter­est rates ris­ing, which, uh, chal­lenger is used to reduce its, um, offer. There is no oth­er bid­der in the mar­ket at the moment, KKR join­ing up with, um, uh, chal­lenger to buy this busi­ness and they already have a stake in it.

So I think they’re being [00:21:00] a bit hard nosed, but, um, yeah, I think, what would you say the revised offer was?

Cameron Reil­ly: $2 25

Tony Kynas­ton: div­i­dends. Yeah. But the share price at the momen­t’s a dol­lar 70. So,

Cameron Reil­ly: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: you know, the mar­ket’s not even think­ing that bid’s gonna be, uh, enough or is gonna go through, so we’ll see.

Cameron Reil­ly: It was, the share price was $2 like 40 at

Tony Kynas­ton: Cor­rect.

Yep.

Cameron Reil­ly: Um, I know that uh, a lot of finan­cial ser­vices stocks are tak­ing a beat­ing at the moment. Is that because they think the econ­o­my’s gonna be screwed because of oil prices and, uh, peo­ple aren’t gonna have any mon­ey and busi­ness­es aren’t gonna have any mon­ey and every­thing’s gonna be dif­fi­cult for a while?

Tony Kynas­ton: All of the above. I think, um, cer­tain­ly inter­est rate ris­ing will hurt, which is inter­est­ing because [00:22:00] often­times, uh, inter­est rate, ris­ing cycle, ris­ing cycle can be good for banks because, um, they, if they keep the same per­cent­age in mar­gin on a RO ris­ing inter­est rate price to actu­al­ly make more dol­lars.

So, um, and that’s seemed to be a good thing has­n’t hap­pened yet, because as you said, if, if we’re in a high infla­tion, low growth envi­ron­ment, then peo­ple are gonna use banks less, either for com­mer­cial rea­sons, like to. Put mon­ey into their busi­ness­es to bor­row, to put mon­ey into their busi­ness­es or to, um, you know, buy new hous­es or upgrades or what­ev­er.

So yeah, there’s been a bit of a de decrease in share prices for, for, um, uh, finan­cials. I’m just look­ing up now, the Chal­lenger offer, and the rea­son why they revised the big down was just, um, they said wors­en­ing eco­nom­ic con­di­tions, increased con­cerns about the state of the pri­vate cred­it mar­kets, um, and [00:23:00] at least, uh, at least mess arti­cle I’m read­ing says that, um, there was some pres­sure from chal­lengers own investors who weren’t com­fort­able with the high pre­mi­um of the orig­i­nal offer.

Cameron Reil­ly: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: Um, but yeah, like m and a activ­i­ty when the mar­ket’s in a tur­moil like this can result in offers being with­drawn or, um, reduced, uh, and more dif­fi­cul­ty in them going ahead as well. As we’re also see­ing with the Hum sit­u­a­tion where Cred­it Corp is bid­ding for, uh, HUM, which was on the buy list last year,

Cameron Reil­ly: and also with Har­mo­ny HMY, uh, I just got an alert say­ing that they’ve become a cell. Rule one sell for one of my light port­fo­lios. They’re down 8% today.

Tony Kynas­ton: but they’re not a takeover sit­u­a­tion, [00:24:00] are they?

Cameron Reil­ly: No, they’re a finan­cial, um, loan provider stock. You did a pulled pork on them I think in episode 8, 4 0 back in last year.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: today. We had Gabrielle Radzin­sky the show.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: Um, so yeah, it’s just anoth­er one of these finan­cial ser­vices com­pa­nies that’s, uh, tak­ing a beat­ing at the moment.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. And, and, um, they’re a bit like pep­per mon­ey too. They pro­vide, uh, uh, cred­it to small busi­ness­es and to peo­ple to buy cars or what­ev­er. Take hol­i­days.

Cameron Reil­ly: mm.

Tony Kynas­ton: Very sim­i­lar, but get­ting back to Hum. Um, the inter­est­ing thing about Hum is that, is all the shenani­gans that are going on. So we had Michael Gold­berg from Collin Street Finan­cial on the show last year, and they, they’ve been involved in some share­hold­er activism about, [00:25:00] about Hum.

It’s, it’s, um, I think I cov­ered this in the prize show a cou­ple of months ago, but, uh, what’s hap­pened recent­ly in the last week is that there the, uh, one of the activist peo­ple, uh, not Collin Street, they, they took, um, the sit­u­a­tion to the takeovers. Pan­el, which is kind of unusu­al for this kind of sit­u­a­tion.

It does involve a takeover offer from Cred­it Corp, but it was­n’t Cred­it Corp or Hum who took the issue to the takeovers pan­el. It was a inde­pen­dent share­hold­er. Um, and the takeovers pan­el is made a dec­la­ra­tion of unac­cept­able cir­cum­stances at hum, uh, which is under appeal by, um, Mr. Aber­crom­bie, who’s the major share­hold­er and founder of Hum.

Um, but the inter­est­ing sit­u­a­tion is that a dec­la­ra­tion of unac­cept­able cir­cum­stances, um, if the appeal isn’t suc­cess­ful, is usu­al­ly a pre­cur­sor to final orders, which, which, um, hap­pens. Uh, if it hap­pens, it gives the takeover. Pan­el, um, [00:26:00] the abil­i­ty to com­pel the board to act in a par­tic­u­lar way regard­ing the Cred­it Corp offer, um, and deal­ings Mr.

Aber­crom­bie has had in the in share pur­chas­es. So they might be, um, ruled inel­i­gi­ble to have vot­ing rights, for exam­ple, as, um, part of the deal. ’cause there’s a, uh, a meet­ing com­ing up, I think in May that the activists have called to, uh, vote on a few issues, uh, around all this. And so, um, it’s very per­ti­nent as to how much, uh, how many shares Mr Aber­crom­bie com uh, con­trol at that meet­ing.

Cameron Reil­ly: Hmm. We don’t, uh, I don’t think we hold. Hum, do we?

Tony Kynas­ton: I don’t, um, but it was on the buy list.

Cameron Reil­ly: yeah. I think we got rid of it a long time ago when we had to.

Tony Kynas­ton: But very inter­est­ing sit­u­a­tion. I mean, yeah, had to have the takeovers pan­el get involved for a start was inter­est­ing

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: and to see, you know, it’s worth, it’s worth watch­ing this kind of thing just, um, as expe­ri­enced because, um, you know, make ’em up again in the fur­ther takeover in [00:27:00] the future. And it’s good to know what it all means.

Cameron Reil­ly: Indeed. Scott, well, Scot­t’s one of the peo­ple who was Chick­en whitling. Uh, this week you send me an email. What are your thoughts on putting a stop-loss on when you buy? I think you’ve men­tioned before, but I can’t recall what the think­ing was. For me, work­ing a full-time gig and try­ing to keep an eye on things can be dif­fi­cult, espe­cial­ly when the mar­ket is doing crazy shit. I’ve been caught out a few times, as men­tioned above, which has meant sell­ing for 15 to 25% loss­es. set up the alerts, but if I’m stuck in meet­ings for most of the day because of work, I miss them and it is too late to stop the loss­es. I’m then forced to sell for a big­ger loss than might’ve been if I had the stop loss in place. It’s been a very rough six weeks. I’m down 14% since the 1st of Feb­ru­ary, accord­ing to share site. Can’t take a trick right now. I’ve bought three parcels of shares dur­ing this time and had to sell two of them since, and the oth­er one, BFG, is only in the port­fo­lio as the div­i­dend keeps it above its rule num­ber one, [00:28:00] hang­ing on, just get­ting a bit wor­ried and frus­trat­ed.

I’m a long way. From the end of last year when every­thing looked rosy and I was well up. Cheers, Scott.

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, I’m gonna intro­duce Scott to Mr. Mar­ket and the, uh, the, uh, um, sto­ry that War­ren Buf­fett likes to tell that you are a home­own­er and you have a man­ic depres­sive neigh­bor who comes to you every day with a dif­fer­ent price offer for your house. And it’s up to you to decide whether you buy or sell. And I guess what QAV does is give you some rules around accept­ing or deny­ing that offer.

So yeah, appre­ci­ate exact­ly what Scot­t’s say­ing and what he’s going through. And, um, yeah, we were all rid­ing high last year and now we are down a bit more in the sad­dle. Um, but we’re still here. We’re still going and deal­ing with the sit­u­a­tions as they arise. So that’s what the rules are for. Scott, um, I would­n’t get too wor­ried about hav­ing to trade a bit when the mar­ket’s like this.

It’s fair­ly nat­ur­al. Um, but that’s the ques­tion on stop-loss­es. [00:29:00] Uh, I haven’t used a stop-loss in I don’t know how long. 15, 20 years. Um, I’m not say­ing you should­n’t use it giv­en your cir­cum­stances where you’re busy dur­ing the day, but to be hon­est, um, the way I work is get­ting an alert from Stock Doc­tor, which comes out at night.

So the mar­ket’s shut, um, and then I can decide what to do. Um, some­times I even wait the next day and see what the share price is like after the mar­ket opens, before decid­ing to sell. Um, there’s noth­ing wrong with stop-loss­es, but they’re very bru­tal. So you might find you put a stop-loss in. Well, what I was find­ing, um, and this is only in a small num­ber of cir­cum­stances, was I put a work out, a stop-loss, put it in the order, and, uh.

At some stage dur­ing the day, the share price went below the stop-loss and I was exit­ed, but then the share price recov­ered in the after­noon. Um, and, you know, I was out­ta the mar­ket. So it’s a very bru­tal way to run things. So, um, you might even [00:30:00] want to add a bit of padding to your stop-loss for that rea­son.

Make it a bit, you know. Um, if your stop loss is 10%, make it 15% for exam­ple, so you can get an alert and sit size up the sit­u­a­tion for your­self. ’cause you’re also being sold out regard­less of what your a DT sit­u­a­tion is. So, you know, I don’t know what size of, you know, hold­ings you have and what they are com­pared to the shares you’re buy­ing, but, um, you know, if you are stopped out on a day when the share price, the share is thin­ly trad­ed, then there could be a big gap between the buy and sell and you get a price which is much below what you thought you would get if you had have been wash­ing it your­self.

So there’s a cou­ple of issues with stop loss­es to be aware of. Um, it may suit Scott, giv­en his cir­cum­stances, and I’m not gonna give per­son­al advice, but just think about these things, Scott. Maybe try it on one or two of your shares and, and go from there.

Cameron Reil­ly: You know, it’s, um, the, the sort of intra­day pan­ic about and that kind of stuff. I, [00:31:00] I, I went through that, you know, I remem­ber the first year or two doing that and like my, uh, writ­ing my alerts. Like it was trig­ger fin­ger

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Right.

Cameron Reil­ly: like I was, uh, gene Walder and Blaz­ing Sad­dles, fastest guy in the west and, uh, his name?

I just watched that on the week­end.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Um, CLE even lit­tle

Cameron Reil­ly: that’s the

Tony Kynas­ton: and so hear me.

Cameron Reil­ly: Black Bart? No,

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh,

Cameron Reil­ly: char­ac­ter is, um,

Tony Kynas­ton: can’t remem­ber.

Cameron Reil­ly: the Frisco kid.

Tony Kynas­ton: that’s it.

Cameron Reil­ly: Waco kid.

Tony Kynas­ton: the Waco kid, and I watched the Mel Brooks doc­u­men­tary You rec­om­mend­ed. That was real­ly good.

Cameron Reil­ly: you enjoy it?

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Espe­cial­ly the end, the sec­ond part about, um, David Lynch and

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: he’s in his, uh, pro­duc­tion com­pa­ny

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. Um,

Tony Kynas­ton: and blaz­ing set­tles. That was great

Cameron Reil­ly: yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: see­ing the clips again.

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. So I watched the whole thing like, uh, [00:32:00] over on Sun­day or Mon­day or some­thing.

Tony Kynas­ton: I love that. Uh, there’s many scenes. I mean, like when I first saw it, when it first came out, I was prob­a­bly like 10 or 11 or some­thing. And to see, see far jokes on the screen. I mean, that just cracked me up that adults had the same sense of humor as we did on the play­ground. But, but the clas­sic scene when I watched it again dur­ing this doc­u­men­tary was that I just pissed myself was when, um, the Waco kids got his arm around black Bart.

He’s going, you got­ta remem­ber, these are farm peo­ple. These are, these are sim­ple peo­ple. Salt of the earth,

Cameron Reil­ly: in oth­er words.

Tony Kynas­ton: morons.

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. Any­way, trig­ger fin­ger. Um, and then I remem­ber you say­ing at some point, know, if it goes from 20%, which is our rule one now to 25% and you sell it for 5% less. When

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron Reil­ly: to 20 stocks in your port­fo­lio, 5% of one stock

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: [00:33:00] is real­ly noth­ing. And then when you add that up over or what­ev­er fac­tor that in over five years,

Tony Kynas­ton: Cor­rect. It’s bug­ger rule.

Cameron Reil­ly: And you, you just, it’s got­ta stop pan­ick­ing about it and just real­ize, I do what you do. Like I said to Scott in my reply, I said, I bring it up in the show, but I said, look, what I do is I just, I check my alerts. Usu­al­ly at the end of the day, I’ll

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: see what hap­pened. Go, oh, okay.

There’s a cou­ple of things I prob­a­bly need to take care of tomor­row if there is. Um, and then, you know, mid-morn­ing I’ll have a look at it and decide what to do. Usu­al­ly, depend­ing on what I got on for the day, but I just don’t pan­ic that much

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: like you have a moment, you take care of it and some­times it works in your favor.

Some­times at eight o’clock at night, when I check it’s a cell,

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: I get around to it at 12 o’clock the next day I take a lunch break and I take a look at it. It’s not a sell any­more. I’m like, oh, okay. Some­thing hap­pened and I win. Some­times it goes in your favor, [00:34:00] some­times it does­n’t. But over, over 10 years of invest­ing, it’s not gonna,

Tony Kynas­ton: No.

Cameron Reil­ly: of points here, a cou­ple of points There is, you know, on a one stock, out of a big port­fo­lio is gonna make a big dif­fer­ence.

So, you know, relax,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep. And there’s been cas­es too, like, I must admit, I, I try and find rea­sons to keep hold­ing a stock some­times too, or often.

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: like if it, if it’s an alert at night and next day, even though it’s still below the alert, but it’s on the, on the rise, I’ll just watch it. Keep it, you know what, why pan­ic? And it’s, why do any­thing in pan­ic?

That’s just the worst way to act them, to make deci­sions. So just, you know, pants on fire. Just go and sit in the bath­tub. Don’t, don’t trade shares.

Cameron Reil­ly: Well, I was like that with FEX this week. Phoenix, you right there.

Tony Kynas­ton: Sor­ry, you, your pants was on fire dur­ing SEX this [00:35:00] week.

Cameron Reil­ly: FE

Tony Kynas­ton: sor­ry. I heard SEXI was think­ing of South­ern Cross Elec­tri­cal.

Cameron Reil­ly: Uh, Tony. Tony, Tony Phoenix Resources. Um, because iron ore was a sell, accord­ing to when I ran my, um, uh, com­mod­i­ty check, uh, at one point this week. And I had a look at it and iron ore had ticked up. It was still a cell, but it, it had sort of was tick­ing up and I was like, Hmm, you know, it looks like not gonna be a cell much longer, so I’ll hold it a day or two and just keep an eye on it and see what hap­pens.

And, and it did. And, you know, iron ore kept

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, right.

Cameron Reil­ly: and I did­n’t have to sell FEX. So Yeah, some­times you got­ta fudge it a lit­tle bit if it looks like things are going in your direc­tion.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, don’t even know if it’s a fudge. You could call. I guess it is a fudge, but it’s, yeah. You need [00:36:00] to put some man­age­r­i­al deci­sion mak­ing on top of the rule, I guess. Or just, it is a fudge. You’re right. But it’s, it makes sense to do what you are doing and whether I do.

Cameron Reil­ly: So don’t pan­ic, Scott. I know, you know, Scot­t’s been doing it about a year or so, but, uh, he’s still, he’s still in the hon­ey­moon phase of QAV going through his first, uh, his first cri­sis. You’ll get you

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh,

Cameron Reil­ly: Oh yeah. We all

Tony Kynas­ton: uh,

Cameron Reil­ly: first

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. Our first chick­en

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, watch­ing him grow up.

Cameron Reil­ly: were

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: when we used to

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Well, the oth­er thing, Scott, too, is, uh, I think in your email you said that you were sell­ing things between 15 and 20%, so it sounds like you’ve got a 10% stop-loss in there. Um, and as you said before, cam, I, I, I use 20%. I think you do, and it sounds like if Scot­t’s get­ting between 15 and 25, he’s prob­a­bly aver­ag­ing about 20 any­way.

So

Cameron Reil­ly: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: anoth­er per­spec­tive to look at it as well.

Cameron Reil­ly: yeah. [00:37:00] Alright, well, uh, that’s all I have. Tk, what you got. List left on your list.

Tony Kynas­ton: I left on my list. Yeah. Um, front of the Wall Street Jour­nal yes­ter­day was Iran Strikes Accost­ing Big Oil. And it was an arti­cle about, um, the dam­age to, uh, the Qatari, um, instal­la­tions from the Iran­ian mis­siles. And

Cameron Reil­ly: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: one of them in par­tic­u­lar was, uh, one of Shel­l’s, crown jew­els, a giant plant, um, for l and g in Qatar.

And they’re talk­ing about it being offline for at least 12 months while it’s repaired. So it was­n’t com­plete­ly a sur­prise to me that, um, we got to the 48 hour dead­line this morn­ing and Trump chick­ened out. So I think there’s a lot of pres­sure being applied, um, state­side from the oil majors for him to clear this up.

And not just the oil majors, but peo­ple who rely on the oil majors. You think almost every lob­by group would be telling him [00:38:00] to just get it, get it fixed and get it done. So, um, yeah. Inter­est­ing.

Cameron Reil­ly: But how do you do that at this point?

Tony Kynas­ton: I know that’s, that is the trick, isn’t it?

Cameron Reil­ly: I mean, if you’re Iran, they were in the mid­dle of nego­ti­a­tions with the US and Israel when they got bombed. So you, and if, if they did­n’t know already, which I’m sure they did, but now they doub dou­bly know you can’t trust any agree­ment that

Tony Kynas­ton: Cor­rect.

Cameron Reil­ly: The US or, or Israel, right?

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron Reil­ly: They, they, they’re gonna just promise you one thing one day and then bomb you the next day. So nego­ti­a­tions are real­ly off the table. There has to be is Iran keeps say­ing mas­sive secu­ri­ty guar­an­tees in place, um, for them mov­ing for­wards and what that looks like, I, I don’t know, in this

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm. I.

Cameron Reil­ly: then for the US and Israel, if they, if they give in and don’t, if they exit this with­out regime change or tak­ing over [00:39:00] Iran, hav­ing per­ma­nent con­trol of the Straits of War­ren Lewis, look. Weak and all of this is for naught. Um, so sort of an exis­ten­tial cri­sis for Netanyahu and Trump as well, you would think, uh, to at, not the same as it is for Iran, but at a, at a cer­tain lev­el. So I can’t see how any of them get out of this. Uh, at this point. It’s, it’s a qua­mi.

Tony Kynas­ton: I can’t see them get­ting out of it quick­ly. But to me, the only log­i­cal exit is for boots on the ground to con­trol the straits of houz. And then, you know, the long term game with regime change, the wild card is Israel. ’cause they’re not gonna give up on regime change. And Iran, they want Hezbol­lah, com­plete­ly un you know, done and dust­ed, unfund­ed, they’re gonna keep fir­ing mis­siles into Iran, even if the US does a deal.

So, um, it’s not gonna end quick­ly from that respect. The straights of whom was, I can see being reopened quick­ly and, you [00:40:00] know, the Marines are head­ing in place. I think that’s how it’s gonna fin­ish. Um, but who knows?

Cameron Reil­ly: a cou­ple of thou­sand Marines is gonna get the job done.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, I’m not an expert.

Cameron Reil­ly: 10,000 drones a month. that’s, that’s a lot of drones you got­ta get through. And the oth­er thing with Israel is Israel’s get­ting hit. It’s not.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm.

Cameron Reil­ly: the media a lot because they, Israel’s cracked down with the

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: Not a lot of news get­ting out of Israel, but Israel’s get­ting hit accord­ing to all of the sources that I lis­ten to that have sources inside of Israel that are speak­ing to them. Mis­siles are get­ting through Iron Dome and there’s only so long that they can,

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm.

Cameron Reil­ly: know, keep, keep their pop­u­la­tion at bay. If, if they’re being ter­ror­ized by Iran­ian counter strikes, retal­ia­to­ry strikes, so,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Well, there’s so many wild­cards because, uh, what’s Iran’s, what’s Iran’s final solu­tion if they get cor­nered? Are they gonna find mis­siles [00:41:00] at the Euro­pean cap­i­tals? Does that bring

Cameron Reil­ly: con­cerned

Tony Kynas­ton: into a wall?

Cameron Reil­ly: I mean, there’s, there’s com­men­ta­tors I’ve been lis­ten­ing to, uh, that are very con­cerned that Netanyahu may launch a nuke at Iran if

Tony Kynas­ton: Ooh.

Cameron Reil­ly: feels cor­nered.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep, that’s a pos­si­bil­i­ty. But the oth­er pos­si­bil­i­ty, which I think deserves con­sid­er­a­tion is what does Chi­na do with Tai­wan? Because you think about the Amer­i­can mil­i­tary now, it’s in the Mid­dle East. Um, it was in the, in the Chi­na Sea, and it’s now prob­a­bly some­what still in, in the coast of Venezuela, um, or Cuba.

So there’s a, there’s a big stretch­ing of mil­i­tary resources that, I don’t know what it is today. It used to be the mil­i­tary strat­e­gy in the US to be able to fight the war on four fronts or four walls at the same time around the world. They’ve now got three. Um, you know, there’s, they still have pres­ence in the Chi­na Sea.

They still have pres­ence in near Venezuela, and they’re mov­ing troops to the Mid­dle East. [00:42:00] What hap­pens if Chi­na invades Tai­wan?

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. I, I, I mean, I think, I don’t think Chi­na needs to Oh, thank you. I don’t think Chi­na needs to invade Tai­wan. I think if I’m Chi­na, I’m just like, Anoth­er, anoth­er

Tony Kynas­ton: They’re gonna wait. Yeah. Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: it just,

Tony Kynas­ton: And I don’t, yeah, it’s, it’s also an issue too, giv­en Trump would, would, would the US feel oblig­at­ed to come to Tai­wan’s defense as well?

Cameron Reil­ly: yeah, who knows? It’s all crazy.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. And we’re just spec­u­lat­ing.

Cameron Reil­ly: we are. What else you got Josephine? I mean, a, uh, Paul Pork Josephine,

Tony Kynas­ton: I do. Um, yeah. So. I, I’m denied about whether to do this pulled pork. It’s on Karun and I, the rea­son why I’m denied was because I bought some last week and I did­n’t wan­na sound like I was, uh, push­ing a stock I own, but the, the back­ground to it is there’s four stocks on the buy list at the moment. [00:43:00] Um, and I did a pulled pork on one of them, Viva Ener­gy two weeks ago.

Uh, I did San­tos last year and, um, I did Cen­tral Cen­tral a cou­ple of weeks ago

Cameron Reil­ly: Sor­ry to cor­rect you. There’s real­ly only two stocks on the buy list

Tony Kynas­ton: and one’s under takeover.

Cameron Reil­ly: accord­ing to my analy­sis, CTP Cen­tral Petro­le­um, which is a mix­ture of crude oil and LNG, and my rev­enue analy­sis says it’s pri­mar­i­ly LNG based

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, okay.

Cameron Reil­ly: G’s a sell. Same with San­tos. I’ve got that down as

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, okay.

Cameron Reil­ly: so that’s a cell. So it’s real­ly only, again, this week, Vee­va and Karun Ener­gy. There are two stocks as of y know, yes­ter­day morn­ing. Any­way, I haven’t done an update today, but.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Right. Um, well, there you go. So, um, I decid­ed to do the pulled pork on Karun for that rea­son. There’s noth­ing else on the buy list to talk about real­ly. Uh, but this is a note.

Cameron Reil­ly: when you say you bought karun last [00:44:00] week, I think it’s fair to say we all bought

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: last week.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay. Well that puts it in per­spec­tive then.

Cameron Reil­ly: QAV mem­ber and light mem­ber. ’cause I think it, I did a light, uh, thing of it as well. It might have been Viva, I can’t remem­ber. But yeah. ’cause we own both of the, like we all own Karun ener­gy at this point. If any­one’s had any cash, it’s been the one of the only things to buy for three weeks now. So, yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: I just want­ed to be upfront and say I’m doing it for those rea­sons. It’s the only one on the buy list, but also, um, and not because I bought some last week and wan­na push it. So obvi­ous­ly do your own research, but as you say, cam, it’s fair­ly top­i­cal. Um, last time I did a pulled pork on, this was back in Sep­tem­ber, 2023 and the, the com­pa­ny’s a lit­tle bit dif­fer­ent since then.

So, uh, I think it’s worth revis­it­ing for those rea­sons. But, but bear in mind I have, I have bought some last week and it may blow up in my face ’cause uh, you know, the straits of that and tomor­row and the oil price halves and these [00:45:00] stocks are rapid­ly becom­ing sell so we’ll. Um, but the rules take care of that too.

Uh, and I wan­na also say that last time I did the pulled of pork on Karun, the share price was $2 61, which turned out to be the peak, and it dropped back to a low of a dol­lar 33 at the end of 2024. It since recov­ered pri­or to the, um, lat­est con­fla­gra­tion and was it about a dol­lar 55 before, uh, the clos­ing of the Straits of Emir?

So, um, that might be where it heads back to if the war is resolved quick­ly. But who knows? For those peo­ple out there who for­get the pulled pork I did before, or who don’t know who KARUN is, they’re Aus­tralian based, but they’re, they have a lot of, um, effort and oper­a­tions over in Amer­i­ca. And in fact, they’ve been relo­cat­ing senior per­son­nel across the Hous­ton, even though they’re Mel­bourne based.

Um, and they’ve, they, they’ve basi­cal­ly have three core assets. [00:46:00] So they’re an, uh, an all. Up what they call an upstream oil busi­ness. So they’re not sell­ing to, um, retail cus­tomers. They’re, they’re find­ing oil, they’re, um, tak­ing it out of the ground and they’re sell­ing crude is is their busi­ness. And they do that at, uh, the Bow­er, um, field and Pato­la oil fields, which are in Brazil’s San­tos Basin.

So they’re off the coast of Brazil and they have a stake in, uh, a field called who dat. In the Gulf of Amer­i­ca or Gulf of Mex­i­co, depend­ing on which map you look at. And they also have a new prospect called the Neon Prospect in the Barossa Basin off the coast of Aus­tralia. So they’re the three oper­a­tions, ro uh, sor­ry.

Um, neon, uh, has not been devel­oped yet, but the oth­er two are pro­duc­ing crude and pro­vid­ing cash to this com­pa­ny. And, you know, giv­en the, where the oil price is now, a lot more cash than, than they were pri­or to, um, the Mid­dle [00:47:00] East, uh, war, the biggest cash gen­er­at­ing unit is the, um, the Brazil­ian fields. Um.

Who dat in the US Gulf does rep­re­sent a growth oppor­tu­ni­ty for them. So, uh, they are still explor­ing in that region and find­ing new, um, sources of rev­enue going for­ward. And the neon prospect in Aus­tralian, uh, waters rep­re­sents the most sig­nif­i­cant val­ue dri­ver. So they’re mov­ing to what’s called a final invest­ment deci­sion, oth­er­wise called an FID, uh, in the mid­dle of this year to decide whether or not to, um, to pro­ceed with, uh, devel­op­ing the neon field, which won’t be.

Cheap. So, um, I’ll get to that in a minute. And, but the point I want­ed to make now is that the neon field will be a high­er cost field than the Amer­i­can fields. And to give that some con­text, in 2025, the breakeven cost for bone was $14 80 US per bar­rel. [00:48:00] And, um, they actu­al­ly, uh, anoth­er big part of what has hap­pened for this com­pa­ny in the last 12 months is they acquired a, uh, float­ing.

Um, oh, it’s called an FPSO, which I’ll talk about again in, in a lit­tle bit, which they used to lease. And, uh, that’s, um, improved the eco­nom­ics of, of the bon­er field by about four or $5 a bar­rel. Um, and so, uh, 14, $18, $14 80 US a bar­rel was the break even for Bona last year. It’s gonna come back to more like $10 US a bar­rel going for­ward.

Um, and the Huda oper­a­tion is around $9 50 US a bar­rel. So they’re very cheap, uh, to, to process those two fields. The neon field in Aus­tralia is expect­ed to run at about 18 to $20 US a bar­rel, and you’ve got­ta add the amor­tized cap­i­tal cost to devel­op it of around six to 10. So, um, it’s still profitable.[00:49:00]

Even when the oil price was down in the six­ties, that’s, that’s still a prof­itable field. But there are big swings to the eco­nom­ics of this com­pa­ny, um, as the oil price moves up and down. The oth­er thing about Neon is it’s gonna cost about a bil­lion dol­lars us to devel­op. Um, but it will, uh, increase the.

Reserves of karun by 60 to 90 mil­lion bar­rels. That’s the esti­mate. And um, if it goes ahead, it will prob­a­bly dou­ble kar­in’s exist­ing reserves. The only ques­tion mark around all of that is that Karun expects to take on the part­ner to help fund this and to share the cost and the upside of the project. So we don’t know who that part­ner is yet and we dun­no what the terms of the deal is yet.

So it’s pret­ty hard to fac­tor in and work out the spread­sheet cal­cu­la­tion for the cost ben­e­fit of, um, neon them, but it will be revealed dur­ing the year. Uh, and that’s gonna be a, uh, an inflec­tion point for the share price. Um, if it’s a good deal [00:50:00] and they go ahead and I expect the share price may re rerate, but, um, who knows?

Um, get­ting back to that, uh, FPSO, uh, they, um.

Just try to look up. Ah, yes. The own­er of the FPSO was a com­pa­ny called sdi, GZ. Um,

Cameron Reil­ly: Okay.

Tony Kynas­ton: yep. And they, they sold their, uh, float­ing, um, plat­form to karun for $115 mil­lion, and there was about $8 mil­lion. US both these fig­ures are in US in trans­ac­tion costs. They were, the FPSO was owned by Alter­ra and Oss­ian A and o, and they used to lease the ves­sel to Karun, but the um.

Share mar­ket likes the deal and see it as a mark­ing coon’s tran­si­tion from a pure explor­er to a full scale off­shore oper­a­tor. [00:51:00] So it’s one of the steps of turn­ing these fields into cash gen­er­at­ing units ongo­ing is to con­trol that sort of, uh, float­ing plat­form. Um, FPSOs are pret­ty inter­est­ing. So what they are is basi­cal­ly a, a next tanker, uh, which sits above the oil field and can, um, drop, uh, what they call, um, ris­es down to the, uh, seabed where the, um, drilling is tak­ing place.

And, and those ris­es bring the oil up from the seabed. And then they do a bit of imme­di­ate, uh. I would­n’t, would­n’t say refin­ing, but sep­a­ra­tion. So they take out the sea water and any sort of gross impu­ri­ties from the, um, the, uh, oil that’s com­ing up. And then they store it and then they, um, load it into two small­er ves­sels to take it to shore.

And that’s a more effi­cient way of, um, of mon­e­tiz­ing the oper­a­tion and try­ing to run a pipeline from a, an oil rig out, uh, off­shore [00:52:00] back to shore to stor­age tanks there. So, um, inter­est­ing type thing. They run a, um, a nav­i­ga­tion­al, I guess, uh, sys­tem called a weath­er vane, so a weath­er van anchor­ing sys­tem.

And it allows the, the FPSO to move around in the wind and the waves for sta­bil­i­ty. Um, uh, even though it’s a big, a big ship that’s just basi­cal­ly at sea in a deep water, um, envi­ron­ment up to a kilo­me­ter deep, they’re, they’re pret­ty sta­ble. So, um, the, the rea­son for high­light­ing this is it’s a, it’s made a big dif­fer­ence to the eco­nom­ics of the com­pa­ny.

As I said, it’s made their mar­gins big­ger, um, and it’s secured, uh, those eco­nom­ics going for­ward. Um, I want­ed to just run through a cou­ple of oth­er things that have hap­pened at Karun since we last spoke about them. Um, soon after we talked about them, or maybe around the time I talked about them last time, they received a first strike on their remu­ner­a­tion report.

[00:53:00] And, uh, to karun cred­it or the cred­it of the board, they did take the share­hold­er, uh, crit­i­cism to heart and they restruc­tured the exec­u­tive incen­tives and cap­i­tal allo­ca­tion strat­e­gy going for­ward. So in 2024, the com­pa­ny over­hauled the short term incen­tive and moved away from reward­ing the exec­u­tives for just mere­ly acqui­si­tions and explo­ration to, um, putting, uh.

More than three quar­ters of the STI reward was tied to pro­duc­tion tar­gets, bud­get con­trol, and oper­a­tional excel­lence, and only 5% was allo­cat­ed to find­ing new growth oppor­tu­ni­ties. So pri­or to that, the incen­tives were crit­i­cized for heav­i­ly for reward­ing exec­u­tives sim­ply for mak­ing acqui­si­tions. Um, so big change to the incen­tives.

Uh, which aligned with what the share­hold­ers want­ed. And that came after a num­ber of years of, um, karun promis­ing but not deliv­er­ing div­i­dends. And so Karun since, uh, [00:54:00] the last pulled pork in 2023 has imple­ment­ed the cap­i­tal returns pol­i­cy in a for­mal way. So the board have com­mit­ted to return­ing 20 to 40% of under­ly­ing net prof­it to share­hold­ers in 2020.

In 2025, they declared a final div­i­dend of 3.10 cents per share. And they also launched a buy­back pro­gram as well at the same time. So, uh, they’ve launched it and repeat­ed­ly extend­ed an on mar­ket share buy­back pro­gram, which was returned over $80 mil­lion to share­hold­ers in 2025 alone. Um, and then the last thing to, to men­tion about, um, changes to this com­pa­ny is that.

Uh, there was a lot of pres­sure from activist investors, um, name­ly San­don Cap­i­tal and Samuel Ter­ry Asset Man­age­ment, uh, to change the lead­er­ship at the com­pa­ny and the CEO at the time, a guy called Julian Fowls depart­ed and new lead­er­ship was appoint­ed with a man­date to focus on oper­a­tional effi­cien­cy and [00:55:00] share­hold­er val­ue over aggres­sive m and a.

Um, and that all came to a head with the acqui­si­tion of the WHO dat, um, field that I talked about before because it involved a, um, dilu­tive cap­i­tal rais­ing of about, uh, which in which entailed about a 40% dilu­tion of exist­ing share­hold­ers. And, uh, one of the rea­sons why the share prices dropped after 2023 was because of that cap­i­tal rais­ing.

Um, so what else can I say about them? Um.

We spoke about who dat, we spoke about the FPSO own­er­ship. Um, there has been chal­lenges dur­ing the last year or so. So despite, um, the changes I men­tioned, the bon­er, uh, field has had oper­a­tional issues includ­ing, um, equip­ment val­ues, and there was a a 50%. Prof­it drop in 2025 due to low­er oil prices and unex­pect­ed down­time.

So there is a lot of, um, chal­lenges in this [00:56:00] busi­ness and, uh, cer­tain­ly in the fields that they’re oper­at­ing in. Um, kin­da like, uh, well def­i­nite­ly the Gulf of Mex­i­co is, is where hur­ri­canes often form in the US So there can be big weath­er chal­lenges, but they’re also oper­at­ing in deep water drilling envi­ron­ments.

So there are all kinds of spe­cial chal­lenges there, but they have, um, now put on A CEO who’s focused, uh, on being able to, um, han­dle oper­a­tional chal­lenges like that. The CEO called Car­rie Lock­hart, for­mer­ly of eor, and she took over in Novem­ber, 2025, and she’s been tasked with, um, enhanc­ing the oper­a­tional per­for­mance and improv­ing the tech­nol­o­gy.

Uh, so. They’re kind of the things that have changed since then. I guess the last thing to per­haps men­tion is that a cou­ple of weeks ago, the Brazil­ian gov­ern­ment announced a 12% export tax on crude oil effec­tive March, 2026. And so that’s obvi­ous­ly gonna [00:57:00] have an impact on mar­gins, uh, for the oil com­ing out of the bon­er, um, facil­i­ty.

So there is a bit of, uh. Uh, sov­er­eign risk with this com­pa­ny oper­at­ing over­seas. Um, but I think over­all, uh, the share price has been ris­ing off. Its off its low point and it is seen as being in a bet­ter space than what it was in 2023. Um, notwith­stand­ing some of the oper­a­tional issues they’ve got. Their, um, you know, who that will pro­vide growth for them.

Neon effort goes ahead, will pro­vide a, a long-term future for them. So there’s a lot of things to life that’s going on. Um, and hope­ful­ly the exec­u­tive changes, at least in the CEOs, um, is going to bed that down. If I look at their results, I’ve already sort of flagged that the prof­it was down, but pro­duc­tion was down 1% because of the aver­ages I men­tioned before.

Um, sales were down 19%, main­ly because of the oil price changes. And to give some per­spec­tive on that, uh, in [00:58:00] 2024, Brent, on aver­age over the year, was about $81 USDA bar­rel. And in 2025, Brent was about $69 on aver­age, um, uh, across the year. So that’s, that’s real­ly hurt. Car’s prof­it, um, hurt their mar­gins, uh, and um.

The oth­er thing to high­light, I guess from their num­bers is that own­ing the FPSO in bon­er has reduced costs by 7% for that field, but, uh, con­tributed to an over­all cost reduc­tion of 3%. So costs are com­ing down, it’s just the oil price, which is, um, hurt­ing them last year. And of course the oil price is up now, so that prob­lem, uh, might be improved.

Uh, QAV num­bers for the com­pa­ny and I’m doing a stock price, uh, sor­ry, an analy­sis with a stock price of $2 oh five, which was yes­ter­day’s price. It’s now dropped back to around $2 today. So if peo­ple are think­ing about look­ing at this, you prob­a­bly should, um, look at, uh, the cur­rent price and the cur­rent figures.[00:59:00]

If you do your own down­loads before mak­ing your own deci­sion, it will change, um, a lit­tle bit because of that. Um, the oth­er thing I think I’ve, I’ve felt since buy­ing it is it feels a bit fun­ny cheer­ing for more dis­rup­tion in the Mid­dle East to get the KR stock price up. But, um. It’s, that’s, you know. I guess some­thing I have to live with.

But uh, I have been check­ing the news overnight when I first get up to see what’s hap­pened in the Mid­dle East because of that. And the, your price. Any­way, get­ting back to the num­bers. IV one’s a dol­lar sev­en, IV two is $2, so it’s trad­ing around IV two. Uh, Stock Doc­tor finan­cial health and trend is strong and steady.

Stock oed, a qual­i­ty rank is 88 with an over­all rank of 97, which is very high. F score is six out of nine. P is just under 10 times, which is the high­est in the last three years. So it gets a neg­a­tive score for that. Does­n’t have con­sis­tent­ly increas­ing equi­ty does have a buy­back, so we can score it for that.

And Pr/OpCaf is low at 3.95 times, which is real­ly what’s putting it on the [01:00:00] buy list. Net equi­ty per share is $2 14, so we can buy it for less than book and book plus 30%. And that’s rea­son­ably sim­i­lar to the NTA, so that’s a, a good thing to note as well. Earn­ings per share fore­cast growth is neg­a­tive 3%.

So, um, we can’t, uh, score it for growth over pe uh, again, I, I expect that would change. Um, if the oil price remains high, we might see some growth in the, in the fore­cast earn­ings going for­ward. Uh, yield is 2.68%, so they can’t score it for that. There was an own­er founder, but he retired in 2020. A chap called Dr.

Bob Hoskin. Um, I tried to look up what his cur­rent stake was, but I could­n’t work it out. And I’m kind of think­ing it’s below 5% now. ’cause he was­n’t, um, in the, uh, top 10 list in the annu­al report and he has­n’t appeared for a while in the. Uh, you know, changes of own­er­ship for mate­r­i­al hold­ers. So I’m sus­pect­ing he’s, he’s prob­a­bly still a hole hold­er.

I dun­no if he’s still a share­hold­er, [01:01:00] share­hold­er, but he, he’s prob­a­bly got less than 5% any­way, so I can’t score it for own a founder. Um, it was a new three point trend line in Feb­ru­ary, so he can score it for that over­all eight out 14 for qual­i­ty, which is only a score of 44%, which is not great. And 0.11 for our total QAV score.

So this may well come off the buy­er list, uh, if the share price does­n’t improve from where it is. Um, I, I guess to address some of the ques­tions that peo­ple will have who have looked at car, uh, I think what I like about it are the oppor­tu­ni­ties. So karun trades are a steep dis­count towards Aus­tralian peers.

Um, like, uh, some of the oth­er explor­ers on the ASX are trad­ing around sort of an aver­age of 15 times. The PE for KAR is, what’d they say it was? Um, five. nine oh, it’s, it’s increased a lot recent­ly. It’s up around 10 now, so it’s trad­ing at a bit of a dis­count to its peers, um, large­ly because of the issues I’ve men­tioned. [01:02:00] Uh, it does have, um, low oper­at­ing costs, pret­ty, very low breakeven as I men­tioned before. So, uh, any lever­age up in the oil price. Um, leg up in the oil price is real­ly pos­i­tive to mar­gins, as is decreas­ing oil price as well.

Uh, but very strong cash gen­er­a­tion. Um, debt’s been reduced and, uh, good even with depressed mar­gins last year. Still good, uh, oper­at­ing cash flow and I like the, the clear growth path. So who debt will pro­vide growth in the near time term? Neon prob­a­bly won’t come on until next. Uh, I’ll say. 2030s at the ear­li­est, and we will know about the final invest­ment deci­sion in the sec­ond half of this year.

Uh, but you know, that’s, if it does go ahead on a good basis, that’ll be a, um, a real mile­stone for the com­pa­ny. Um, I men­tioned before about risks, uh, sov­er­eign risks of the Brazil, um, wind­fall [01:03:00] gains tax. Um, there could be wind­fall gain tax­es in Aus­tralia too, so it may not just be a sov­er­eign risk for Brazil, but, um, that’s obvi­ous­ly, uh, gonna affect them.

Um, I guess one of the biggest risks is what does car do if neon does­n’t go ahead or if the farm out deal is oner­ous. So time will tell with either of those two things. If, if Neon does­n’t go ahead. I sus­pect the, the. Man­age­ment will have to get back on the acqui­si­tion trail, uh, m and a trail to try and find some­thing else to replace it.

But I also sus­pect, giv­en it’s, we’re get­ting so close to that deci­sion, they’ve done a lot of work to make it stack up finan­cial­ly. And, um, the FID might just be a rub­ber stamp of their think­ing around pro­ceed­ing with it. But we have, we haven’t seen the detail yet, so we’ll have to wait and see. Cer­tain­ly gonna be a, um, an inflec­tion point for the stock price, uh, in a cou­ple of months.

Um, I noticed that the CFO had resigned, which is always some­thing that catch­es my eye. Then yes­ter­day, um, lat­er on I noticed [01:04:00] that, uh, they’d announced a replace­ment. So looks to me like the cur­rent CFO was asked to relo­cate to Hous­ton and decid­ed not to go. Um, and he’s been replaced by some us, uh, peo­ple.

So, uh, Eric Williams is the new CFO and this was announced yes­ter­day. He’s based in Hous­ton, as is the cur­rent CEO and as is a new­ly cre­at­ed posi­tion of CTO slash coo, which com­bined the two pre­vi­ous roles. And that per­son is also based in the US and Cam. The guy’s name is Mark Nick, um, here you would­n’t have heard of, but he pre­vi­ous­ly worked for Mur­phy Oil as the coun­try man­ag­er in Viet­nam.

We did Mur­phy Oil on the US Show recent­ly.

Cameron Reil­ly: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Um, so I think the CFO resign­ing was, um, not some­thing to be wor­ried about. And he, he’s, he’s been replaced now, uh, and by some­one based in Hous­ton. Um, oth­er risks for the com­pa­ny, um, there could be a cap­i­tal raise for neon, [01:05:00] which again, could dilute share­hold­ings and we’ll have to make up our minds whether we par­tic­i­pate or not, or get dilut­ed.

Um, although it’s look­ing like they’ll take on a part­ner instead of, um, going to anoth­er cap­i­tal raise, which, um, end­ed bad­ly for them in, um, the case of who dat back in 2023. Uh, but I look, I think the biggest ques­tion though, and the biggest risk that’s, um, on my mind any­way about this com­pa­ny is what hap­pens if the or when the Straits of Film was, are opened again?

Um. I’m guess­ing it’ll prob­a­bly decrease the share price, but it, the com­pa­ny was on the buy list before the cur­rent con­flict, so, um, and as I said before, it does have a lot of mar­gin, um, with low oper­at­ing costs at the moment. So even with a low­er raw price, if it’s above the six­ties where it was last year in 2025, they’ll have a bet­ter result than they did last year.

So it’s still gonna be, I think, like­ly prof­itable for them this year. Um, but yeah, it could drift back down towards the pre-mil­i­tary buildup. [01:06:00] Prices of around a dol­lar 60. Um, but that’s why we have cell sig­nals. Uh, so I can’t spec­u­late on what will hap­pen and I’m ready to sell if I need to, ready to ride this through if it keeps going.

And of course, on the oth­er hand, exhib­it a Don­ald Trump. Um, who knows what will hap­pen if this trade, if was as we spoke about before. Um, I sus­pect the, a majors amongst oth­er peo­ple are apply­ing pres­sure to end this quick­ly. But as, as we’ve said, um, some­how we all have to bear out or the US has to bear out of this with, uh, its ego intact and that’s always top of mind for Don­ald Trump.

So we’ll see. So that’s my thoughts on KAR.

Cameron Reil­ly: mm Thank you Tony. Uh, I did want to a dis­claimer too that I added them to my super on the 10th of March. I added them to the light port­fo­lio on the ninth at to dol­lar 98, and then I wait­ed a day as per our self-imposed rules, before I added them to my super port­fo­lio, [01:07:00] and they dropped down to a dol­lar 83, which was con­sid­er­ate of it.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh good. That worked in your favor.

Cameron Reil­ly: It did.

Tony Kynas­ton: Now, by the way, as an aside, when I was try­ing to look up our, our, um, self-imposed reg­u­la­tions to make sure I could talk about it today, I clicked on the link in the email to look to, um, get to our dis­clo­sures and it just went to the home­page on the new web­site. So, um,

Cameron Reil­ly: this

Tony Kynas­ton: you fixed it.

Good. Okay. Alright. Thank you.

Cameron Reil­ly: I

Tony Kynas­ton: I like your, I like your emails now. I just want­ed to make that work again. Thank you. I’ll make sure it was work­ing. Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: Well, there was a link to it on the web­site, but you had to go down to the foot­er to

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: did a direct link.

Tony Kynas­ton: Thank you.

Cameron Reil­ly: Uh, cool. After hours. Tony,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. So a few things. Um, have you heard of Michael Rain­er oth­er­wise called the Bro­ken Jug­gler?

Cameron Reil­ly: I have not.

Tony Kynas­ton: He’s, he’s, I start­ed fol­low­ing him on my, um, on my reels and it’s quite, it’s quite sur­re­al and quite fun to watch his clips. But I thought I’d [01:08:00] men­tioned it to you because, um. He, he’s been going for a long time and, and if you go to his web­site, you can see he’s been a, an actor who’s always played the dork, often in com­mer­cials, um, as well as a jug­gler, but it’s, he’s more recent stuff, which I love.

So he is like this mid­dle aged lit­tle guy who now posts almost every day, a clip of him jug­gling in his back­yard. But the first thing he often does, he’s, he’s got a pil­low with a pic­ture of Nicholas Cage on it with a big grid. And he, he always starts off with some­thing like, first I must throw Nicholas cage into the bas­ket, and he toss­es the pil­low over his shoul­der into a bas­ket­ball hoop in his back­yard.

And then he, then he’ll say, now I must jug­gle a chain­saw and a tom­a­hawk and a balling ball. Or, or I, he’s, he’s sort of known for hav­ing a para­sol that he spins and he bal­ances a, um, a burg­er on it, which un wraps as it goes. So things like that, it’s very,

Cameron Reil­ly: Wow.

Tony Kynas­ton: good fun to watch.

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, I’m just look­ing. I’ve got one of [01:09:00] his YouTube videos going on in the back­ground here with the

Tony Kynas­ton: the more recent ones. Yeah, yeah. Any­way, is is worth look­ing up? Um, I’m read­ing a book called All Ords Fair, which is fair­ly old. It goes back to sort of post Clin­ton Times. It’s, it was ghost writ­ten, but it’s basi­cal­ly dual inter­views with Mary Madeleine and James Carville who were, uh, if you’re a polit­i­cal junkie, like I’m a lit­tle bit, uh, used to run the cam­paigns for George Bush and Bill Clin­ton pres­i­den­tial cam­paigns and then got togeth­er and got mar­ried.

So, well actu­al­ly they were togeth­er while they were run­ning cam­paigns. So very inter­est­ing sto­ry how one was sup­port­ing the Repub­li­cans, one was sup­port­ing the Democ­rats, um, and I had­n’t read it. And uh, yeah, it’s good. Real­ly inter­est­ing to get behind the scenes looks at that, those two cam­paigns.

Cameron Reil­ly: How did they make it work? Any like two oppo­site sides of the divide.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, it’s inter­est­ing. I mean, I think they just real­ly liked each oth­er, but, and I think also [01:10:00] too, you know, the, they were very, very busy and prob­a­bly did­n’t see a whole heap of each oth­er, but Yeah. Um, Mary Mattman talks about the RNC would get real­ly upset when Carville would turn up to take her out and out.

The Democ­rats would when she turned up to, to go on a day.

Cameron Reil­ly: And that was in those days,

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: it was far less vehe­ment than it

Tony Kynas­ton: Cor­rect. Yeah. Yeah. But very inter­est­ing. Um. So that’s that. And I, I saw a trail­er for the new Mar­tin McDo­nough film, Wild­Horse Nine,

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, I’ve

Tony Kynas­ton: isn’t, isn’t com­ing out for, um, a few, not until end of the year, I don’t think. But, um, I did­n’t real­ize what his fil­mog­ra­phy was.

I knew he’d made, um, three bill­boards out­side of Ebbing, Mis­souri, but I did­n’t real­ize he’d, he’d start­ed off with in Bridges and had done sev­en soc­cer, soc­cer paths.

Cameron Reil­ly: Sev­en Psy­chopaths and then the Ban­shees of Insur­ance.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

Cameron Reil­ly: he’s a play­wright

Tony Kynas­ton: [01:11:00] yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: orig­i­nal­ly, I think. Isn’t he an

Tony Kynas­ton: Irish play­wright. Yeah,

Cameron Reil­ly: And he’s in a, he’s mar­ried to, in a rela­tion­ship with, um, Fleabag,

Tony Kynas­ton: cor­rect.

Cameron Reil­ly: her name is. Phoebe

Tony Kynas­ton: Waller Bridge is, yeah. Phoebe Wool­er, three bridges. Yeah. So, um, very inter­est­ing. I had­n’t real­ly put all those things togeth­er until I saw the trail­er and then looked into him.

Cameron Reil­ly: Well, he’s one of my favorite. Writer of direc­tors,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: is all of those films are just mag­nif­i­cent.

Tony Kynas­ton: I agree. And I, I thought that before I knew it was the same per­son who’d done them all, but that was, um, yeah, just joined the dots when I saw the new trail­er.

Cameron Reil­ly: and,

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm,

Cameron Reil­ly: what’s his face? Malkovich. I think

Tony Kynas­ton: yep.

Cameron Reil­ly: of looks like him, like a sequel to him. Bruge like two hip men togeth­er and one’s got­ta kill the oth­er one. But I think,

Tony Kynas­ton: Right. Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: does­n’t he get a, he gets a phone call from, who’s the mob boss in this one? It’s, oh. Um, Bamy, I think. [01:12:00] Who says he has to kill John Malkovich? Sam Rock­well has to kill Sam. Yeah. Malkovich while they’re away or some­thing.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, it’s, it’s always, you know, even if you just fol­low the actors who get involved in these pro­duc­tions, it’s, he’s obvi­ous­ly attract­ing a real­ly qual­i­ty cast all the time too, which is great. Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: I, I’ll watch Sam Rock­well read the phone book. I’ve always loved Sam Rock­well for, dun­no what the first thing was I saw him in. But he’s always, he’s one of these guys that’s just end­less­ly enter­tain­ing every role that he does.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, although I did­n’t, I, I watched the most recent movie of his, which was good, but not great. I would­n’t nec­es­sar­i­ly rec­om­mend it, which is kind of apro­pros to what we talked about last week. What’s it called? It’s called Have Fun, stay Safe, don’t Die, some­thing like that.

Cameron Reil­ly: Okay. I

Tony Kynas­ton: It’s,

Cameron Reil­ly: one.

Tony Kynas­ton: oh, it’s worth watch­ing, but it’s, it’s, it’s not great. It’s, um, Sam Rock­well comes back from the future and he goes into a din­er and like, it’s real­ly, he’s, it’s great act­ing. ’cause he goes into din­er and says, right, I’ve [01:13:00] been here 300 times before, you are gonna die. You are gonna die. Put your hand up if you wan­na come with me and save the world.

And like every­one’s going, who the fuck is this? And then some­one calls the cops and he’s like, ah, don’t call the cops. You do that every time. But it goes on from there. And, and like it gets, it’s a, it’s a pret­ty far­fetched, he’s, it’s try­ing to stop an AI from being built. Um, yeah. So it’s kind of inter­est­ing from that per­spec­tive, but it’s, uh, it’s, it’s okay.

It’s not great, but he’s great.

Cameron Reil­ly: Well, I got a bunch of good things for you this week. Um, have you ever heard of David Lynch’s hotel room?

Tony Kynas­ton: No.

Cameron Reil­ly: Me either, until yes­ter­day. Read about it on the Lynch sub­red­dit and I was like, what? In 1993, I think he made a three episode minis­eries for HBO called Room.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh

Cameron Reil­ly: bit like Taran­ti­no’s four rooms.

Tony Kynas­ton: Right.

Cameron Reil­ly: And I dun­no about the con­nec­tion between [01:14:00] ’em, but takes place in a hotel room, three sto­ries, three dif­fer­ent casts. I think the only thing in com­mon is the, uh, the wait, the, the, not the whiter, the, the Bull Boy bell­boy. A bit like four rooms.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: the first episode stars, Har­ry Dean Stan­ton, uh, Fred­die Jones, who was the Ele­phant Man’s orig­i­nal

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah,

Cameron Reil­ly: Man,

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah, yeah. Right?

Cameron Reil­ly: Heley.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: And, uh, yeah, I think they’re the three cast. Uh, fan­tas­tic. Real­ly, real­ly lynch­ing

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Right.

Cameron Reil­ly: Ange­lo Bat­tle, Men­ti doing the, the sound, et cetera, et cetera. So it’s on, it’s on YouTube.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay.

Cameron Reil­ly: dug it up out of no one, no one’s seen it for decades. Some­body dug it up and put it on YouTube, but it’s, I’ve only seen the first and half of the sec­ond episode.

But real­ly enjoy­ing that,

Tony Kynas­ton: Great.

Cameron Reil­ly: crazy that I’d nev­er even heard of this [01:15:00] Uh, Chris­sy and I watched Gaslight, the 1944 ver­sion of Gaslight with a George Ko film with Ingrid Bergman. um, Joseph Cot­ton and Charles Boy­er as the hus­band. You ever seen that?

Tony Kynas­ton: I haven’t,

Cameron Reil­ly: Fan­tas­tic.

Tony Kynas­ton: is it.

Cameron Reil­ly: real­ly good. Yeah. Appar­ent­ly it’s not the orig­i­nal. So the, the whole Gaslight thing was based on a, play, a Lon­don play was made into a British film in 1940. was 44. It was like a remake, but said in Lon­don Charles Boy­er’s French and Ingrid Bergman was Swedish and Cot­ton I guess was Amer­i­can, but real­ly good and, and uh, real­ly like, quite scary.

Um, but, uh, Ingrid Bergman’s per­for­mance, I don’t think I, you know, I was try­ing to think if I seen her in any­thing out­side of [01:16:00] Casablan­ca.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, right. Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: I don’t, I don’t know that I’ve seen many of her films, but it’s very lynch­ing actu­al­ly. This, this whole film. Which is fun­ny when you real­ize that left her hus­band and ran off with Rober­to Rossi­ni and then they had Isabel­la Rossi­ni and then David Lynch cast

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Right.

Cameron Reil­ly: and Blue Vel­vet, and then they

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron Reil­ly: rela­tion­ship

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm.

Cameron Reil­ly: I don’t know, five years or some­thing.

So there’s a sort of a

Tony Kynas­ton: Six degrees.

Cameron Reil­ly: con­nec­tion there to

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: thing. yeah, can high­ly rec­om­mend that it’s on HBO. Um, I watched Jack­ie Chan’s police sto­ry. Uh, you ever seen that?

Tony Kynas­ton: I don’t think I have. No, but I looked it up when you, um, told me you’re gonna talk about it, which looks great.

Cameron Reil­ly: I had nev­er seen it. Uh, it’s sort of one of his most famous

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: a, the sto­ry behind it I read is that he’d gone to Hol­ly­wood to do a Hol­ly­wood film, the Pro­tec­tor or some­thing, which was a huge flop. [01:17:00] And he went back to Hong Kong with his tail between his legs and just decid­ed that’s it. I’m just gonna make the cra­zi­est action.

I’m gonna show Hol­ly­wood how to make an action film. he put togeth­er his stunt crew and they made this thing. The stunts in it are absolute­ly batch it crazy. Par­tic­u­lar­ly, it was made in like 1985, I think. Obvi­ous­ly no ropes, no wires, no safe­ty gear. He, I think it was in this one, he frac­tured his pelvis, two of his ver­te­brae. got sec­ond degree burns on his hands when he slides down a met­al pole in a shop­ping cen­ter and just took all the skin off his hands. the, the crew appar­ent­ly called it Glass Sto­ry, not, you got some­thing

Tony Kynas­ton: thought there was, I thought there was a deliv­ery arriv­ing, but it’s not. I just heard a noise and saw a truck.

Cameron Reil­ly: the cast called it Glass Sto­ry because of how much glass they [01:18:00] break in it.

It’s just like the stunts are crazy. There’s one scene in the begin­ning when he is chas­ing down or they, they, they, they starts with him and his crew of cops tak­en down some gang and there’s like this, um, slum vil­lage built on the side of a cliff. And they’re get­ting cars and they dri­ve cars, the crims, to try and get away through build­ings on the side of a cliff, and the cops are chas­ing him. And you see peo­ple jump­ing out of door­ways and out

Tony Kynas­ton: No, I.

Cameron Reil­ly: out of walls as they’re smash­ing and things are blow­ing up. They built this vil­lage and then trashed it, dri­ving cars at full speed through it. And Gem­i­ni was say­ing, yeah, the stunt guys in the build­ings could­n’t see what was hap­pen­ing. They just had to. did­n’t know where the cars were com­ing from. They had a basic idea, but once a car hits a build­ing, you dun­no where it’s gonna

Tony Kynas­ton: Right.

Cameron Reil­ly: to.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron Reil­ly: they just had to wait. And if a car came through a wall, you had to [01:19:00] exit and jump out a win­dow. And then of course, in like in Jack­ie’s films from that point onwards in the cred­it sequence, they show the out­takes and you see cars flip­ping and explod­ing and them drag­ging guys out.

And there’s a, this scene after that where one of the bad guys is escap­ing on a dou­ble deck­er bus and Jack­ie runs down the street, steals an umbrel­la off a lady, and then jumps up and hooks

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: of the umbrel­la through a win­dow, and then is being pulled along through the air on this bus swing­ing, hold­ing onto this speed­ing bus an umbrel­la.

It’s, and then he has to climb into the thing. It’s just insane. The guy, like the fact that he is still alive is

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: amaz­ing. Like com­plete­ly mad. He is with a watch.

Tony Kynas­ton: Him and Tom Cruise,

Cameron Reil­ly: a punk band, uh, British punk band from the sev­en­ties. Dun­no if you’ve ever heard of them. The Soft Boys post-punk.

Real­ly? Not punk, post-punk. [01:20:00] I like it. It’s kind of late sev­en­ties, ear­ly eight­ies. They went into the nineties and they broke up and then I think they did a reunion album in the ear­ly two thou­sands. But kind of, uh, actu­al­ly remind­ed me a lot of Robert Forster

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, okay.

Cameron Reil­ly: stuff in, in a way.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: I dun­no, a lit­tle bit, sort of Nick Cavey in Ele­ments a lit­tle bit.

Uh, you know, Robert Forster Nev­er heard of them before, but, um, stum­bled on them in Spo­ti­fy. The Soft Boys

Tony Kynas­ton: are they from?

Cameron Reil­ly: to it all day. You say, Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: Where are they from?

Cameron Reil­ly: I think they were, um, Irish or

Tony Kynas­ton: Ah, okay.

Cameron Reil­ly: some­thing like that. Yeah. From the uk. Any­way, some­where

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm.

Cameron Reil­ly: I.

Tony Kynas­ton: back to stunts, have you seen It’s a Mad, mad, mad World, the old movie.

Cameron Reil­ly: was a kid. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Check out some of the clips, which I’ve been watch­ing Yeah. On YouTube because, um,

Cameron Reil­ly: Real­ly?

Tony Kynas­ton: like as a kid, I, I saw it then too, and it was just, yeah, okay. It’s a bit of [01:21:00] fun and there’s a few come­di­ans in it, but it’s actu­al­ly a movie that was writ­ten and made by the stunt­men.

And when you actu­al­ly, when you actu­al­ly see the clips now, you go, oh my God, how did they do like that is, you know, peo­ple on big fire engine lad­ders being swayed from side to side, cars, crash­ing into build­ings, planes doing incred­i­ble stunts.

Cameron Reil­ly: You’re talk­ing about the 63 film,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. With like,

Cameron Reil­ly: Kong

Tony Kynas­ton: no, no, no. The Amer­i­can one. Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: Right. Tra­cy, Mil­ton Burr. Sid Cae­sar.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: Mel Brooks, bud­dy

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: Ethel Mer­man. Mick­ey Rooney, Phil Sil­vers, Jonathan Win­ters

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: Jim­my Durante. What a cast,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. But it’s basi­cal­ly just one stunt after anoth­er, the whole way through.

Cameron Reil­ly: right?

Tony Kynas­ton: When you watch it from that per­spec­tive as an adult, you can sort of, and with a bit of hind­sight, you can see, my God, that was, there’s no CGI. There’s no safe­ty net. That’s incred­i­ble.

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. [01:22:00] But it’s like Smok­ing in the Ban­dit, right? That

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: direct­ed

Tony Kynas­ton: stunt man. Yeah,

Cameron Reil­ly: his stunt car, uh, dri­ver or stunt man.

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah, yeah. Same thing.

Cameron Reil­ly: Chris­sy and I have been talk­ing about this both in terms of police sto­ry and um. Gaslight, like just watch­ing old films that were made pre CGI pre all of, you know,

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron Reil­ly: real peo­ple doing real stuff with. I don’t know, there’s some­thing about it. It’s, it’s uh, there’s that slash real humans try­ing to do some­thing ele­ment that, uh, has some sort of to it, at least to us any­way. I dun­no if Fox’s gen­er­a­tion will care, but we cer­tain­ly enjoy watch­ing old

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, no, I agree. Alex is gonna go and see Hail Mary tonight, which I, I’ll even­tu­al­ly get [01:23:00] around to see­ing it. And I love the book. I think I talked about the book on the show a cou­ple of years ago. Yeah. Fan­tas­tic book. Well, Andy Weir, like he wrote The Mar­t­ian and he wrote Hail Mary. He wrote anoth­er one called Artemis, which was, was­n’t very good.

But Mary again is just like end-to-end physics. It’s just fan­tas­tic. Um, so the hard sci­ence and his books are great. Um, but the rea­son for bring­ing it up is, I’m inter­est­ed to see what Alex thinks of it because it’s, um, the, the peo­ple who made it delib­er­ate­ly did it with all real effects, a bit like, um, uh, the guy who made 10 and, uh, Christo­pher Nolan, does he, they try not, or they don’t use CGI.

It’s all phys­i­cal effects. Yeah. So same with Hail Mary.

Cameron Reil­ly: 19 14, 19 15.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yes.

Cameron Reil­ly: one he did the World War I thing?

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. No, my, both my boys have seen Hal Bar­ry and they raved about it. I’ve got oth­er friends that have seen every­one I know who’s seen it says it’s real­ly great.

Tony Kynas­ton: no, good. I look for­ward to [01:24:00] see­ing it because the book was fan­tas­tic.

Cameron Reil­ly: All right. Let’s go talk about Kodak on the Amer­i­can show. Tony.

Tony Kynas­ton: that looks inter­est­ing. I’ve had a look at, had a quick look at them. It’s yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly: inter­est­ing sto­ry. I’m look­ing for­ward to it.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm.

Cameron Reil­ly: Thank you.

Tony Kynas­ton: Thank you.

Cameron Reil­ly: every­one.

Tony Kynas­ton: See ya. Don’t for­get. Have fun.

Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, that too.

Tony Kynas­ton: Have fun. Stay safe. Don’t die. Or Sam Rock­well will come back from the future.

Bernard: Q A V is a check­list-based sys­tem of val­ue invest­ing devel­oped by Tony Khyne­ston over 25 years. To learn more about how it works and how you can learn the sys­tem, vis­it our web­site, Q A V Pod­cast dot com dot A U.

This pod­cast is an infor­ma­tion provider and in giv­ing you prod­uct infor­ma­tion we are not mak­ing any sug­ges­tion or rec­om­men­da­tion about a par­tic­u­lar prod­uct. The infor­ma­tion has been pre­pared with­out tak­ing into account your indi­vid­ual invest­ment objec­tives, finan­cial cir­cum­stances [01:25:00] or needs. Before you decide whether or not to acquire a par­tic­u­lar finan­cial prod­uct you should assess whether it is appro­pri­ate for you in the light of your own per­son­al cir­cum­stances, hav­ing regard to your own objec­tives, finan­cial sit­u­a­tion and needs. You may wish to obtain finan­cial advice from a suit­ably qual­i­fied advis­er before mak­ing any deci­sion to acquire a finan­cial prod­uct. Please note that all infor­ma­tion about per­for­mance returns is his­tor­i­cal. Past per­for­mance should not be relied upon as an indi­ca­tor of future per­for­mance; unit prices and the val­ue of your invest­ment may fall as well as rise. The results are gen­er­al advice only and not per­son­al prod­uct advice.

Trans­paren­cy is impor­tant to us. We will always be very open and hon­est about the stocks we own. We will also always give our audi­ence advance notice when we intend to buy or sell a stock that we are going to talk about on the pod­cast. This is so we can nev­er [01:26:00] be accused of pump­ing a stock to our own advan­tage. If we talk about a stock we cur­rent­ly own, we will make it known that we own it.

This email is autho­rised by Antho­ny  Khyne­ston. Autho­rised Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Num­ber zero zero 1 2 9 2 7 1 8 of M F & Co. Asset Man­age­ment Pro­pri­etary Lim­it­ed (A F S L five 2 zero 4 4 2).
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Quote of the day: “The voice, Afghan match­mak­ers say, is more than half of love.”

Excerpt from

Shan­taram

Gre­go­ry David Roberts