QAV #645 — Punch Drunk

645 Club

[00:00:00] Cameron: Wel­come to QAV, this is episode 645. We’re record­ing this on a Mon­day instead of a Tues­day because I don’t know, some­thing’s going on tomor­row.

[00:00:19] Cameron: What’s going on tomor­row, TK?

[00:00:21] Tony: The biggest sport­ing

[00:00:22] Tony: event In the horse rac­ing cal­en­dar is going on

[00:00:24] Cameron: In the world.

[00:00:26] Tony: Yes.

[00:00:29] Tony: Yes. The Mel­bourne Cup. hap­py, ASX

[00:00:31] Tony: camp.

[00:00:32] Cameron: and hap­py, hap­py, uh, Mel­bourne Cup for you

[00:00:35] Cameron: tomor­row.

[00:00:36] Tony: Thank you. Alrighty.

[00:00:37] Cameron: When peo­ple will prob­a­bly be lis­ten­ing to this as it’s

[00:00:39] Cameron: run­ning. And when we get to the end of the show, you can give us your tips. How did your tips work out last year? Were they good?

[00:00:45] Tony: No,

[00:00:46] Cameron: Okay.

[00:00:47] Tony: Rud­dy’s tip was, I’m going to give you Rud­dy’s tip

[00:00:49] Tony: as well lat­er on in the

[00:00:50] Cameron: Oh, okay. Yeah, Rud­dy.

[00:00:51] Cameron: Yeah, I’d take tips from Rud­dy. ASX has had a bet­ter week this week. Tony, uh, but we’ve seen [00:01:00] this before.

[00:01:00] Tony: Why do I

[00:01:01] Tony: feel punched

[00:01:02] Tony: drunk? It

[00:01:04] Cameron: And the RBA is meet­ing tomor­row. And, uh, it does­n’t sound good. So, like, this is what I can’t fig­ure. Like every­one, like every­thing I read in the finan­cial review, et

[00:01:15] Cameron: cetera, says The RBA is meet­ing tomor­row to dis­cuss inter­est rates. Michelle Bul­lock has been sound­ing very pes­simistic about what’s going on in the econ­o­my.

[00:01:25] Cameron: It sounds like if I had to place a bet on it, uh, I don’t know what Rud­dy’s tip is on this one, but I would say that she’s prob­a­bly going to raise inter­est rates and yet the mar­ket’s been bull­ish for the last week. What, what am I miss­ing here? Are they just doing it so it can fall again after that comes out tomor­row?

[00:01:45] Tony: does feel like a dead cat bounce, but um, it’s the lat­est increase has been dri­ven by the US Cen­tral Bank. And even then, it’s been dri­ven by Wall Street tak­ing bets on what the US cen­tral bank’s going to do. Uh, [00:02:00] there’s a… There’s a the­o­ry, I guess, form­ing on Wall Street that the U. S. cen­tral bank is through with rate hikes.

[00:02:08] Tony: So that’s why the mar­ket went up in the U. S. It has come back a lit­tle bit because Apple’s num­bers came out and they weren’t that great. I saw, we’ll talk about it in a minute, but I saw Berk­shire Hath­away’s quar­ter­ly report came out and War­ren’s warn­ing that he expects his oper­at­ing com­pa­nies to do worse going for­ward.

[00:02:25] Tony: But that’s War­ren. He nev­er says they’re going to do bet­ter, but he is warn­ing that he does­n’t nor­mal­ly warn that they could be fac­ing prob­lems. Um, yeah, so it’s strange. The lat­est uptick in the mar­ket has been dri­ven by US cen­tral bankers being a lit­tle bit more cir­cum­spect on when the, when they’re You know, cer­tain num­bers

[00:02:48] Tony: like unem­ploy­ment com­ing out in the US, which sup­ports the argu­ment that we’ve seen the last rate hike

[00:02:54] Tony: in the States.

[00:02:55] Tony: And as we know,

[00:02:56] Tony: um, Amer­i­ca’s the dog that wags the [00:03:00] ASX as well, so

[00:03:00] Tony: it’s gone up a lit­tle bit too.

[00:03:02] Cameron: But then if the RBI writes, it’ll crash again.

[00:03:07] Tony: Prob­a­bly. If I had a crys­tal, if I had a crys­tal ball, I would­n’t, would­n’t have been, um, gnash­ing my teeth over the last cou­ple of years of the per­for­mance

[00:03:16] Tony: of the

[00:03:16] Tony: mar­ket.

[00:03:18] Cameron: I don’t know. I just, uh, I can’t make any sense of it. It goes up when it should­n’t go up, goes down when

[00:03:23] Cameron: it should­n’t go down. I’ve giv­en up. I mean, not that I’ve ever tried that hard to under­stand it, but, uh, it’s just, makes no sense to me.

[00:03:31] Tony: Yeah. I think it’s large­ly noise. As we said, yes, um, I think the thing that changed for me in the last week or so was I was sit­ting on cash because I had noth­ing to buy and now I’ve got a cou­ple of stocks to buy. So I haven’t gone com­plete­ly all in for the same rea­son you just announced that I think if we sur­vive tomor­row’s RBA meet­ing, that might be a bet­ter time to buy, but I bought some stocks Fri­day, Mon­day.

[00:03:56] Cameron: Okay, keep­ing your pow­der [00:04:00] dry. well, I,

[00:04:01] Tony: I agree with you. I mean, it’s, that’s the thing about since the GFC, the cen­tral banks have called the shots in

[00:04:06] Tony: mar­kets

[00:04:06] Tony: real­ly,

[00:04:07] Tony: haven’t they?

[00:04:08] Cameron: I went all in today, but know­ing, as I did it, that I’m prob­a­bly going to have to sell every­thing when the

[00:04:13] Cameron: RBA ris­es, rais­es inter­est rates tomor­row and every­thing plum­mets again, but I’m like, well, I, can’t pre­dict. Don’t pre­dict. I have to just do what the sys­tem tells me to do today. But, um, you know, I’m feel­ing pes­simistic about what’s going to hap­pen tomor­row.

[00:04:32] Tony: Yeah, well I haven’t gone all in also too, ’cause I only found a

[00:04:35] Tony: cou­ple of things to buy. So it’s not like the flood­gates have opened, so, to speak. Um, but yeah, I hope, I hope I’m wrong. I hope the, the, the flood­gates will open soon at, um, it’s about time if they

[00:04:46] Tony: do

[00:04:47] Cameron: Well, there’s noth­ing going on dra­mat­ic in the world, Tony, so, you know, it’s smooth sail­ing from here on in, I’m sure. of,

[00:04:56] Tony: Speak­ing of that, I mean, do. What do you think Xi Jin­ping’s [00:05:00] sit­ting back and think­ing right now? I remem­ber years ago read­ing an analy­sis of the, or it might even have been pub­lic pol­i­cy by the US Defense Depart­ment, say­ing they always had a bud­get that was big enough to fight four wars around the world at any one time.

[00:05:13] Tony: We’ve got two.

[00:05:15] Tony: Xi Jin­ping’s prob­a­bly out there spread­ing a bit of dis­sent some­where else in the Mid­dle East to bring it up to three, or some­where else in

[00:05:20] Tony: the world. And, uh, It’s not very far away from invad­ing Tai­wan when the U. S. fleets in the Straits of Hor­muza, wher­ev­er they

[00:05:29] Tony: are.

[00:05:29] Cameron: you got­ta stop believ­ing the cap­i­tal­ist pro­pa­gan­da about Xi Jin­ping, my friend. He’s, like, all he’s doing is, uh,

[00:05:37] Cameron: build­ing a bet­ter, more peace­ful world. He’s the peace bro­ker.

[00:05:40] Tony: Mm hmm.

[00:05:40] Cameron: He’s, he was the guy try­ing to do peace deals between Sau­di Ara­bia and Iran. He’s the, he’s the builder of the Belt and Road Ini­tia­tive.

[00:05:49] Cameron: A tril­lion dol­lars loaned out to devel­op­ing coun­tries. He’s, he

[00:05:54] Cameron: just wants peace and love, you know, deep down. He’s John Lennon, Xi Jin­ping, man. He just [00:06:00] wants peace, love, and har­mo­ny. Wants a, wants a hap­pi­er world for every­body. Hap­py com­mu­nist future for every­body. I don’t know. Don’t know what you’ve been lis­ten­ing to

[00:06:09] Tony: won­der what John Lennon would think of the Chi­nese army

[00:06:12] Tony: if he was ever in charge. Oh, what’s that mis­sile

[00:06:18] Tony: for?

[00:06:19] Cameron: I don’t know, but I’m sur­prised Paul McCart­ney has­n’t tak­en half a com­ment John left on an answer­ing machine 40 years ago and turned it into a new sin­gle yet.

[00:06:28] Tony: Yeah, using

[00:06:30] Cameron: We can talk about the Bea­t­les new sin­gle in After Hours. I was going to say, speak­ing about smooth sail­ing, Tony, Qan­tas share­hold­er remu­ner­a­tion revolt. Well, I can’t decide if this is smooth sail­ing or not, because about 90% of the share­hold­ers vot­ed against the remu­ner­a­tion pack­age or how­ev­er you want it, what­ev­er you want to call it. I read on the ABC that the out­go­ing chair­man, [00:07:00] what’s his name, Goi­da?

[00:07:01] Tony: Goy­der.

[00:07:01] Tony: Yep.

[00:07:02] Cameron: It’s like an attack of Goi­da. Um, at the start, it says in the ABC, at the start of the AGM, Mr.

[00:07:08] Cameron: Goi­da said that the vote against the report would like­ly be around 90%. He was right.

[00:07:14] Tony: Hmm.

[00:07:15] Cameron: But here’s what I can’t fig­ure out. If you already know that, why put it to a vote? If you already know share­hold­ers, 90 per­cent of share­hold­ers are against it, what the fuck are you doing putting it to a vote in the first place?

[00:07:28] Cameron: Should­n’t you be,

[00:07:31] Cameron: why?

[00:07:32] Tony: Well, you got to

[00:07:33] Cameron: I mean,

[00:07:33] Tony: oh, you mean you should change the pack­age?

[00:07:35] Cameron: change the pack­age to some­thing the share­hold­ers approve of. Why are you

[00:07:38] Cameron: try­ing to ram it through?

[00:07:40] Tony: that’s what hap­pens. So He’s got to do that between now and next year, because if it, if a major­i­ty of share­hold­ers vot­ed down next year, then they’ve got to spill, then they then vote

[00:07:48] Tony: to

[00:07:48] Tony: spill

[00:07:48] Tony: the board.

[00:07:50] Cameron: Yeah, right, but he’s not going to be around. It’s not his prob­lem. he’s gone. My ques­tion

[00:07:56] Cameron: is, if you know that every­one hates it, why are [00:08:00] you try­ing

[00:08:00] Cameron: to get it? Why are you going ahead with it? You’re a for­mer senior exec­u­tive, your wife’s a for­mer senior exec­u­tive. Explain to me the senior exec­u­tive cor­po­rate think­ing here that’s going on, because I don’t get

[00:08:14] Tony: the exec­u­tive group think he would be, um, does­n’t mat­ter what we put up, it’s not going to get approved, because it’s the only way. It’s a, it’s kind of a quirk of the, um, cor­po­rate law is the only way that share­hold­ers can actu­al­ly hurt the board is via this mech­a­nism of vot­ing down the REM report. Um, and if they do it two years in a row, then there can be a board spill, so they, they could lose, or lose their jobs.

[00:08:38] Tony: Um, so, it, it, yeah. They could have put up,

[00:08:44] Tony: well I mean apart from putting up Alan Joyce gives his mon­ey back to the

[00:08:49] Tony: Qan­tas, the Rem report was nev­er going to get sup­port under any guise this

[00:08:53] Tony: time around.

[00:08:54] Cameron: Okay, so it’s all back­lash against Alan Joyce’s, uh, [00:09:00] run­ning the com­pa­ny into the

[00:09:01] Cameron: ground and then tak­ing a big

[00:09:02] Tony: cor­rect. Yeah,

[00:09:03] Cameron: rid­ing off

[00:09:04] Cameron: into the sun­set.

[00:09:05] Tony: Yeah,

[00:09:06] Cameron: Alright, Mac­quar­ie

[00:09:08] Tony: it’s cap­i­tal­ism.

[00:09:09] Cameron: Bank. Mac­quar­ie Bank start­ed the day in the red.

[00:09:13] Cameron: Last week, uh, they report­ed a 39 per­cent drop in half year prof­it to 1. 4 bil­lion. Uh, what’s going on with Mac­quar­ie Bank?

[00:09:23] Cameron: They’re one of your favourites. Tony, what’s going on

[00:09:25] Tony: They are, and they are, they’re a volatile com­pa­ny, for sure, but it appears, I mean I haven’t done a deep dive into them, but it appears the issue is com­ing from the asset divi­sion, Mac­quar­ie Asset Man­age­ment. Well first of all, it’s also com­ing from the com­modi­ties trad­ing part of the busi­ness, so last year their results were bol­stered by the fact that they had this guy trad­ing oil.

[00:09:49] Tony: in, in Austin, Texas, or Dal­las, Texas, some­where, who made out­sized prof­its. But a large part of, that’s not hap­pened again this year, um, a large part of Mac­quar­ie [00:10:00] now is what they call Mac­quar­ie Asset Man­age­ment, which is toll roads, so free­ways, um, but any sort of asset real­ly, bridges, um, Oth­er forms of infra­struc­ture, pipelines, et cetera, et cetera.

[00:10:13] Tony: And the sales, so nor­mal­ly they work on a sort of pipeline, Mac­quar­ie Asset Man­age­ment, so they buy it, devel­op it, then turn it over. Some­times they run them over a long peri­od of time, but a lot of times it’s a buy and flip type approach. And with inter­est rates ris­ing, no one’s buy­ing, so they’re sit­ting on assets now, which nor­mal­ly they would be sell­ing part of and book­ing as prof­it, which did­n’t hap­pen this year.

[00:10:38] Tony: So,

[00:10:39] Tony: you know, it’s one of those things it’s, um, again, I haven’t looked at it in detail, but they still got the assets and they’ll still sell them at some

[00:10:45] Tony: stage. So that prof­it will come to roost, but it is a very lumpy sort of busi­ness when

[00:10:50] Tony: you’re doing

[00:10:50] Tony: that.

[00:10:51] Cameron: It’s always been a very lumpy stock for me too. I’ve bought and had to sell it many times over the last few years. Uh, I noticed, like, it was, it was­n’t on our [00:11:00] buy list. Today. And, but I look at the share price. So when this report came out last week, it was trad­ing at a dol­lar six. Well, the begin­ning of the 2nd of Novem­ber was trad­ing a dol­lar 61 dropped down to a dol­lar 56.

[00:11:14] Cameron: Today it’s at a dol­lar 62. It’s back up. Like it dropped for like 10 min­utes and then bounced back.

[00:11:22] Tony: Which I think is that old thing we talked about before the stock­bro­kers run­ning around town when the

[00:11:27] Tony: qual­i­ty reports are com­ing out and pick­ing up the phone and going, sell, sell, sell

[00:11:31] Tony: on the head­line. And then over the next two or three days, hav­ing a look at the under­ly­ing results and say­ing, buy, buy, buy, we got it

[00:11:37] Tony: wrong.

[00:11:40] Cameron: Well, it was­n’t QAV. That’s for sure because, uh, I

[00:11:44] Cameron: haven’t owned it for a long time.

[00:11:47] Tony: Same. The oth­er thing, I did hear some com­men­tary, I think it might have been in the Fin Review, I’ll read some com­men­tary in the Fin Review say­ing that Mac­quar­ie has gone very heavy into green assets in this Mac­quar­ie Asset [00:12:00] Man­age­ment divi­sion and they’re find­ing it hard to sell them at the moment.

[00:12:05] Tony: Yeah, so that could also be the case, but again, unless the assets have to be writ­ten down, they’ll just sit on them until they can sell

[00:12:11] Tony: them.

[00:12:13] Cameron: Look­ing back through my trad­ing, um, archives, uh, I sold it last out of my super and the dum­my port­fo­lio and the light port­fo­lio a while back. I can’t remem­ber exact­ly. It was a three point trend line sale at 1.

[00:12:31] Tony: Mm hmm.

[00:12:32] Cameron: Um,

[00:12:33] Tony: I did the same.

[00:12:34] Cameron: and it’s at 1. 62 now. So, you know, it’s been com­ing down since the 1st of Sep­tem­ber, real­ly.

[00:12:42] Tony: Yeah, so we saved our­selves a bit of mon­ey by sell­ing out when we did.

[00:12:45] Cameron: yeah.

[00:12:46] Tony: But it is a volatile stock, I agree. I thought the com­ment on the green assets was inter­est­ing because a lot of peo­ple have been get­ting into that sec­tor. Now, whether that means it’s an over­crowd­ed mar­ket because there aren’t that many green assets.

[00:12:58] Tony: Um, but I think, [00:13:00] uh, one of the issues that one of the ana­lysts raised was and I may have, again, haven’t looked at this in detail, but there was a a wind farm or a solar farm in the U. S. which had to get writ­ten down heav­i­ly because the price it was get­ting for elec­tric­i­ty from that. Um, asset was­n’t as high as fore­cast.

[00:13:18] Tony: So that could be also hurt­ing the assets that Mac­quar­ie hold. And plus there’s this whole back­lash in the US, which has been inter­est­ing as well, large­ly dri­ven by Trump and his kin say­ing that, um, they’re suing fund man­agers for, for, uh, um,

[00:13:33] Tony: not buy­ing

[00:13:34] Tony: into fos­sil fuel indus­tries and buy­ing

[00:13:36] Tony: green assets instead.

[00:13:37] Tony: So there’s a, um, a whole lot of fund man­agers who are now pulling out of that, that mar­ket as well.

[00:13:43] Cameron: You’ve been fol­low­ing the, uh, Trump court case in New York. He’s been banned from doing busi­ness in New York. They’re

[00:13:50] Cameron: pulling his name off of all of the build­ings.

[00:13:54] Cameron: Uh, it’s, uh, it’s a kind of a riot. Yeah, look, I,

[00:13:59] Tony: Sad thing is he’ll prob­a­bly [00:14:00] get re

[00:14:00] Tony: elect­ed

[00:14:00] Tony: next year.

[00:14:01] Cameron: well, if he’s not in prison by then,

[00:14:03] Tony: Well, then he par­dons him­self.

[00:14:06] Cameron: he can’t.

[00:14:06] Tony: Why?

[00:14:08] Cameron: Because he’s being sued and he’s being found guilty and these

[00:14:12] Cameron: court cas­es are in New York and Geor­gia, they’re states. As a pres­i­dent, you can only par­don your­self for fed­er­al crimes, not for state crimes.

[00:14:20] Tony: Oh, that’s inter­est­ing, then.

[00:14:21] Cameron: Wow.

[00:14:22] Tony: Yeah.

[00:14:24] Cameron: is why they’re going after him in South­ern Dis­trict of New York and now in Geor­gia and places like that. So back to MQG before we get over that. We sold it ear­ly

[00:14:32] Cameron: July, 176 or what­ev­er it was, went up to 185 a week lat­er.

[00:14:41] Cameron: Um, so, I would­n’t have noticed that because I don’t look back, but, um, it’s been falling steadi­ly ever since then, so,

[00:14:49] Tony: So Do you think QAV was, uh, forc­ing the price down there for a while and it rebound­ed and then it dropped again?

[00:14:54] Tony: Oh, you don’t know? Yeah.

[00:14:57] Tony: You don’t know? All right.

[00:14:58] Cameron: Did it, did it, did

[00:14:59] Cameron: it [00:15:00] cause the price

[00:15:00] Cameron: to drop a cou­ple of days ago and then it rebound­ed

[00:15:03] Tony: Yeah, nah,

[00:15:04] Cameron: us then I don’t know, man.

[00:15:06] Tony: Yeah,

[00:15:07] Cameron: Um, okay, mov­ing right along. Janus Hen­der­son, J H

[00:15:11] Cameron: G. Um, the

[00:15:14] Cameron: God of, uh, look­ing both ways, the God of Janus,

[00:15:17] Tony: There’s a guy with a

[00:15:18] Tony: cross­ing the road,

[00:15:20] Cameron: Yeah,

[00:15:22] Cameron: look to the left, look to the right,

[00:15:24] Tony: also called

[00:15:25] Tony: Hec­tor the Cat,

[00:15:26] Cameron: yeah, is that what it, that’s where I was, yeah, uh, delist­ing Tony.

[00:15:30] Cameron: Now, should­n’t be a

[00:15:31] Cameron: prob­lem for any of our

[00:15:33] Cameron: mem­bers, yes, should­n’t be a prob­lem for any of our mem­bers because it was a three point trend­line sell on the 24th of Octo­ber, about weeks ago. Thank Um, but I know that not all of our mem­bers, uh, abide by the rules when it comes to sell­ing. So

[00:15:52] Tony: We set up a, set up

[00:15:53] Tony: a

[00:15:53] Tony: court

[00:15:53] Tony: in Stone­dom,

[00:15:55] Cameron: uh, yes.

[00:15:56] Cameron: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We should, at Heresy.

[00:15:59] Tony: Do I get to wear a [00:16:00] real­ly big cap?

[00:16:02] Cameron: Yeah.

[00:16:03] Cameron: Yeah.

[00:16:04] Tony: I like that scene in the Life of

[00:16:06] Tony: Bri­an that I love when John Cleese has the big cap. All I said was. By Jeho­vah, that meal was good What? Tak­ing the Lord’s name in vain?

[00:16:17] Tony: Stone

[00:16:18] Tony: him!

[00:16:20] Cameron: although we should­n’t gloat too much because, um, When we sold it the 24th of

[00:16:24] Cameron: Octo­ber, it was uh, about 35 bucks, and now it’s 38

[00:16:28] Cameron: bucks.

[00:16:29] Tony: Right,

[00:16:30] Cameron: That’s actu­al­ly gone up

[00:16:31] Tony: but at least we sold some­thing. We had a share

[00:16:34] Tony: to sell.

[00:16:37] Cameron: Yeah, so what hap­pens now? So, well, I do know what hap­pens because I read about it in their release. It’s a vol­un­tary sale facil­i­ty. It’s expect­ed to

[00:16:45] Cameron: oper­ate from Wednes­day the 13th of Decem­ber to Mon­day the 12th of Feb­ru­ary, 2024, to be fol­lowed by a com­pul­so­ry sale process. If you don’t sell dur­ing the

[00:16:56] Tony: Mmm.

[00:16:58] Cameron: if you hold on and go, no, [00:17:00] not sell­ing.

[00:17:00] Cameron: I don’t care what the rules say. That’s what we need is a com­pul­so­ry sale process. I don’t know. So, so, uh, yeah. Is there any­thing to talk about with this? I know there’s some ques­tions about it on Face­book, but basi­cal­ly if you are still hold­ing it, you’re going to be forced to sell it at

[00:17:17] Tony: Right, yeah, I, I, look, who knows how it will go, but I don’t like the for sale process because there’ll be some­one on the oth­er side treat­ing it like a fire sale. And, um, I’m not sure of the process, but it could even be delist­ed by then, so they’ll prob­a­bly have to give you the last price or some­thing like that, which may not be, which then, you know, um, If I put my Machi­avel­li cap on, and I was an under­writer doing that, I’d be manip­u­lat­ing the stock price at the end of trad­ing to make it cheap­er for me to buy out the four sell­ers.

[00:17:50] Tony: Not say­ing that will hap­pen in this case, Janus Hen­der­son­’s a rep­utable com­pa­ny, but that’s, that’s a risk. Uh, yeah, so, I mean, the… I did the, [00:18:00] we talked about this com­pa­ny a lit­tle while ago, I may have even done a pulled pork on it, but it’s an inter­na­tion­al fund man­ag­er, I think it’s domi­ciled in the UK from mem­o­ry, may even be in New York, but it’s list­ed on a num­ber of exchanges, and so they’re say­ing, look, we don’t need to list in Aus­tralia any­more.

[00:18:17] Tony: It’s the, you know, the stock isn’t very liq­uid here, or it’s not a big, big enough, a big enough, you know, pool of investors to, to, um, make it worth­while giv­en there’s costs of list­ing here. So they’re, they’re con­sol­i­dat­ing their, their, um, Share­boards, I think they’re only going to be list­ed in Lon­don and New York going for­ward, maybe some oth­er places too, but not Aus­tralia.

[00:18:41] Tony: So it’s a delist­ing com­pa­ny, a delist­ing process, the com­pa­ny isn’t going away, but they don’t want us to be share­hold­ers in Aus­tralia any­more. So you’ve got choic­es to sell your shares online now. To go into the vol­un­tary process where I’ll give you, um, I haven’t looked at how they cal­cu­late the price, but again, it’s, [00:19:00] um, it’s, uh, I think they’re going to use the NY, the New York Stock Exchange price as the basis to sell your shares, um, vol­un­tar­i­ly, and then they’ll do it com­pul­so­ri­ly at the end.

[00:19:12] Tony: And they may use the NYSE then too to work out the price, um, prob­a­bly will. So, um, it just depends how long wind­ed you want to be dur­ing this process. Get your, I’d, I’d, if it’s me, I’d, and if the price is above the three point trend­line, sell price, you’ve made three bucks over what I did when I sold out, um, but I’d be

[00:19:32] Tony: sell­ing out while

[00:19:33] Tony: it’s

[00:19:33] Tony: still avail­able.

[00:19:35] Cameron: Yeah.

[00:19:35] Tony: look, there’ll be, there’ll be some­one who’s at large instos, um, who’s watch­ing the NYSE like a hawk and com­par­ing it to the price here, and they’ll make a cou­ple of pen­nies on the trade by buy­ing it or on

[00:19:46] Tony: stock before­hand, um, at a price less than what it is in the New York list­ing, and then try and arbi­trage it.

[00:19:53] Tony: So there’ll be some­one buy­ing your

[00:19:54] Tony: shares

[00:19:55] Tony: now.

[00:19:57] Cameron: Yeah, like it, the share price [00:20:00] had­n’t real­ly changed a great deal from when we sold it until Thurs­day. It jumped 10 per­cent on Thurs­day last week with the announce­ment of this, you know, so

[00:20:10] Tony: yeah, that’s inter­est­ing, isn’t it? So that sug­gests to me some­one has already spot­ted an arbi­trage up to 10 per­cent dif­fer­ence and they’ve bought in. Because you think, you think most peo­ple would say, Oh, it’s going to be delist­ed, I’ll sell. Because if you sell, you get your mon­ey in two days.

[00:20:25] Tony: And I don’t know if they’ve come out and said how long it will take to get the mon­ey to you if you’re sell­ing into their vol­un­tary sale or whether you’re being com­pul­so­ri­ly

[00:20:33] Tony: acquired. But it’s prob­a­bly going to be 30 days would be my guess.

[00:20:38] Cameron: right.

[00:20:39] Tony: So you get your bucks quick­er if you do it this way. On

[00:20:42] Tony: mar­ket.

[00:20:44] Cameron: I’m just, um, pulling up, uh, Stock Doc­tor to see if I can see the trad­ing vol­ume the last cou­ple of days. It’s 30 day, oh, oof, yeah, oof. Yeah, [00:21:00] big spike on the sec­ond. Um,

[00:21:04] Tony: yeah,

[00:21:04] Tony: which would have been, you think, peo­ple get­ting the news and then sell­ing, so why

[00:21:07] Tony: did the price go

[00:21:08] Tony: up?

[00:21:10] Cameron: there was a lot of peo­ple were buy­ing.

[00:21:12] Tony: Right,

[00:21:12] Cameron: why are they, yeah, why are they

[00:21:13] Cameron: buy­ing?

[00:21:14] Tony: well, they must see an arbi­trage between the NYSE price and the

[00:21:18] Cameron: yeah, right. Yeah, right. So a lot of peo­ple are get­ting out, but some­body’s snap­ping them up.

[00:21:24] Tony: Aus­tralian

[00:21:24] Tony: price.

[00:21:26] Cameron: Well, is it the

[00:21:26] Cameron: com­pa­ny? No, this isn’t the vol­un­tary sale facil­i­ty, right? It’s not the com­pa­ny buy­ing its own shares.

[00:21:33] Tony: No, the vol­un­tary sale facil­i­ty starts in Decem­ber.

[00:21:36] Cameron: Yeah. Right.

[00:21:38] Tony: I’m not say­ing the com­pa­ny did­n’t buy them, it could be the com­pa­ny buy­ing on mar­ket

[00:21:42] Tony: on the day of the announce­ment, I don’t know.

[00:21:43] Cameron: Right. Well, speak­ing of not sell­ing things when you’re sup­posed to sell them, um, you know, we always, we always have this, uh, con­ver­sa­tion about the rules and when we sell some­thing and [00:22:00] some­times things go up and some­times they don’t go up and I was speak­ing to some­body last week who said, yeah, I don’t sell things when they breach, I just hold onto it.

[00:22:10] Cameron: If they’re a good com­pa­ny, I don’t sell it, I just hold on. Which prompt­ed me to do a lit­tle bit of analy­sis. So I took the last 18 months of the light port­fo­lio and looked at all of the cells that I’d done over the course of the last 18 months. And there has been a depress­ing lot of them because it’s been a very volatile peri­od.

[00:22:34] Cameron: So I looked at all of the rule one cells. The three PTL cells and the com­mod­i­ty cells. The only ones I did­n’t look at is where the com­pa­ny is delist­ed or they’ve changed their code from ECX to FPR or some­thing like that, because that just added a lit­tle lev­el of com­plex­i­ty too. Track­ing it. What I did is I, I wrote a script or sev­er­al scripts actu­al­ly to down­load [00:23:00] all of the clos­ing prices of all of the shares that I’ve sold in the last 18 months since about April 2022, maybe a lit­tle bit ear­li­er than that.

[00:23:11] Cameron: And all of the div­i­dends that those stocks have issued since then, and then cal­cu­lat­ed. Uh, in which cas­es would have been bet­ter off just hold­ing that stock, tak­ing into account any price increas­es since we sold it and div­i­dends that have been accrued since we sold it ver­sus where we did end up when we sold it, not tak­ing into account how we rede­ployed those funds.

[00:23:40] Cameron: So after we sold it, you know, what hap­pened with those stocks, just look­ing at a very base lev­el, would we, would I have been bet­ter off? Net­Net hold­ing that stock or doing what we did, which is sell them. And when I added it all up, it said that if we just held all of the stocks rather than [00:24:00] sell­ing them as a, as a group, the port­fo­lio would have been 5 per­cent bet­ter off.

[00:24:05] Cameron: How­ev­er, near­ly all of that came from a sin­gle stock, which was. TGA, Thorn Group, which had a 391 per­cent increase since I sold it in May of 22, and it’s cur­rent­ly being acquired. But if I take that out as an out­lier, the ben­e­fit of not sell­ing was neg­li­gi­ble. It was basi­cal­ly a zero sum game. Um, some stocks have gone on to recov­er quite well, most­ly DUR, which I bought back into any­way.

[00:24:42] Cameron: We’ve held DUR in the port­fo­lio and it’s up like 140 per­cent I think since we bought back into it. So that, you know, there is that argu­ment that we sell and then we buy back into things, as we always say. But the over­all ben­e­fit of hold­ing every­thing ver­sus nev­er sell­ing was basi­cal­ly zero. [00:25:00] Now, that does­n’t take into account what would have been bro­ker­age.

[00:25:04] Cameron: guess of trad­ing in and out. So if I added in broke, we don’t have bro­ker­age with the dum­my port­fo­lio cause it’s a paper port­fo­lio, but if I added bro­ker­age in there would be, uh, that would, you know, be a dif­fer­ence because there’s a lot of trades account­ed for in there, so that’d prob­a­bly take a cou­ple of points off it, but, um.

[00:25:26] Cameron: Yeah, a cou­ple of dis­claimers there. Obvi­ous­ly, so that’s only 18 months of his­to­ry, and it’s been a very volatile peri­od, as we know. If I ran that over a five year peri­od, um, uh, it could be… Have a dif­fer­ent out­come. If I did fac­tor in how we rede­ployed the funds and how those things have per­formed, that might change the out­come as well.

[00:25:48] Cameron: But I just want­ed to see, you know, I think, uh, Cos­man and a few oth­er of our lis­ten­ers have done their own analy­sis like this over the last year. So I thought I’d do my, mine now that I’m a [00:26:00] script­ing God, uh. And, uh, yeah, so that was my take­away is real­ly noth­ing, noth­ing, no, would have real­ly gained noth­ing apart from bro­ker­age if we just held onto those stocks over that 18 month tur­bu­lent peri­od.

[00:26:20] Tony: Yeah, right. I mean, for me, buy and hold, well, buy and hold was killed for me dur­ing the GFC when, when I did buy and hold and every­thing just halved in val­ue over 18 months. and so I thought there has to be a bet­ter way. And giv­en that it’s, the way I view what you’ve said is giv­en that the buy and hold is rough­ly sim­i­lar to the trade, uh, at least with the trade side of things, we’ve been tak­ing out insur­ance

[00:26:48] Tony: that we don’t have anoth­er big drop dur­ing that 12 month peri­od. And it sounds like if it’s a net net, then the insur­ance was free over that peri­od, except that we’ve had to do a lot of work com­pared to the buy and

[00:26:59] Tony: hold [00:27:00]

[00:27:00] Tony: approach.

[00:27:01] Cameron: Yeah. And again, if I took bro­ker­age into account, there’d be a bit of a dif­fer­ence, but yeah, I don’t know how much I could, I could do some quick num­bers on that, but I don’t think it’d make a huge impact. Um. Yeah, so, and the mar­ket, you know, has been not great for the last 18 months, but it has­n’t had a GFC like fall and no recov­ery.

[00:27:25] Cameron: It’s sort of gone up and then gone down and gone up and gone down and, you know, not like the GFC where it went down and then stayed down

[00:27:33] Tony: Yeah, right.

[00:27:33] Cameron: took 10 years to

[00:27:35] Cameron: get back,

[00:27:35] Cameron: right.

[00:27:35] Tony: Yeah. Well, hope­ful­ly that does­n’t hap­pen. Um, we’ll we’ll see.

[00:27:40] Cameron: Hmm.

[00:27:41] Tony: It’s not going to take much for that to occur, though, I can, I mean, you know, with, um, inter­est rates hav­ing risen, with, uh, unsta­ble geopol­i­tics, with, uh, You know, there’s still a fair bit of, um, still a fair bit of fore­cast­ing of a reces­sion in the US and cer­tain­ly if [00:28:00] you look at what Cred­it Corp said about the cus­tomers who are work­ing, walk­ing away from their repay­ment plans in their busi­ness, that’s got to be a bad sign.

[00:28:07] Tony: So, you know, I played golf with a mate of mine from the States who was vis­it­ing Syd­ney a cou­ple of weeks ago and he said, yeah, it’s ter­ri­ble over there, so. Again, these are all anec­do­tal types of pieces of infor­ma­tion, but if, if, if the econ­o­my does take a down­turn, par­tic­u­lar­ly in the States, then yeah, the share mar­ket may come off in a GFC type way. The, the rea­son for say­ing all that, and I hope it does­n’t hap­pen, is because we have some kind of process for han­dling that, which is just our rule one and three point trend line sales. Where­as the buy and hold per­son just has to… Put the shares in the bot­tom draw­er for a cou­ple of years. And as we saw with the GFC, the share mar­ket’s only back to about that pre GFC

[00:28:47] Tony: lev­el now, some 15 years lat­er.

[00:28:51] Cameron: Hmm. Yes. If I look at, yeah. Yeah. You point­ed that out, I think, last week, right?

[00:28:59] Tony: Yeah, well, if you [00:29:00] had a, if you bought an index fund and it got up to the heights, you bought it before 2007 and it

[00:29:04] Tony: got up to the heights it,

[00:29:05] Tony: did, which I think the ASX was about 7, 200 around the time it start­ed to slide

[00:29:11] Tony: into the GFC. It’s, it’s around that

[00:29:13] Tony: lev­el now. That’s 15

[00:29:15] Tony: years

[00:29:15] Tony: ago.

[00:29:18] Cameron: Yeah, the All Ords has­n’t real­ly, I mean, it, its peak in August, 2007 was 6 7, 7 9. Today it’s 7 1 9 8. It did go up to 7, 6 86, Novem­ber 22. But um, yeah, it has­n’t gone very much above where it was back in 2007. Bit of 15 years

[00:29:42] Tony: Or more. Yeah, Where­as if you had sold, gone to cash dur­ing that GFC peri­od, you were buy­ing it at a much cheap­er price.

[00:29:52] Cameron: buy­ing back in.

[00:29:53] Tony: Buy­ing back in at a much cheap­er price. Yeah.

[00:29:55] Cameron: Yeah.

[00:29:57] Cameron: Well, speak­ing of buy­ing things at a cheap­er [00:30:00] price or not.

[00:30:01] Cameron: Let’s talk about let’s talk about our sur­vey. So by the time peo­ple lis­ten to this, I will have pub­lished

[00:30:07] Cameron: this. This is based on the idea you’ve been kick­ing around for the last cou­ple of weeks about whether or not QAV is actu­al­ly affect­ing our returns.

[00:30:18] Cameron: Par­tic­u­lar­ly In the high ADT side of things. So what we’ve done is we’ve pub­lished a sur­vey and asked peo­ple to anony­mous­ly give us an indi­ca­tion about the sort of size of parcels that they are buy­ing or sell­ing when they’re trad­ing, what your aver­age trade par­cel is, because we’re try­ing to get an indi­ca­tion about how much of an impact.

[00:30:42] Cameron: QAV mem­bers might be hav­ing on cer­tain stocks, and it’s the first step in what I think will be a mul­ti step process of try­ing to drill into this, but, uh, in a nut­shell, the the­o­ry is that it [00:31:00] It’s pos­si­ble that because there’s been so lit­tle to buy, par­tic­u­lar­ly in the high ADT space over the last cou­ple of years, that when some­thing does become a buy, uh, enough QAV mem­bers pile into it in the, on the same, in the same peri­od, same cou­ple of days, push the price up in the process and push the price up on each oth­er in doing that.

[00:31:29] Cameron: Um… And maybe push­es it up by 5 per­cent over the course of a cou­ple of days. Um, and then when we stopped push­ing the price up, the price retreats back to where it was ear­li­er, and then maybe even a lit­tle bit more so, which forces us to sell because it becomes a rule one. And then we repeat the

[00:31:54] Tony: Hmm.

[00:31:55] Cameron: a week lat­er when some­thing hits the buy list.

[00:31:58] Cameron: Is that [00:32:00] kind

[00:32:00] Tony: a good sum­ma­ry. It’s and it’s only a hype. It’s only hypo­thet­i­cal at this stage. I’m just try­ing to, um, make sense of the last cou­ple of years. I know it’s a volatile mar­ket, but in my trad­ing his­to­ry. It’s been extra volatile, and I haven’t expe­ri­enced a sit­u­a­tion like this before. Um, yeah, so it could be that that’s just the way it is.

[00:32:19] Tony: That’s the process. Or it could be that some­how QAV is…

[00:32:26] Tony: And I must admit, when­ev­er I’ve tried to, you know, dial into some of my trades, I’m not see­ing evi­dence of it. So this is only a the­o­ry, um, but, you know, but the the­o­ry goes, if there’s a cer­tain stock and it sits at five times, you What, you know, my, if the ADT is five times what I want to buy, and there’s five of me out there, then sud­den­ly I’m not buy­ing, well, QAV’s not buy­ing 20 per­cent of that dai­ly trans­ac­tion, we’re buy­ing the whole lot, and if there’s a, if there’s enough, [00:33:00] um, stock wait­ing at a high­er price, we’re buy­ing up The lat­ter, so to speak, and push­ing the price up, as you said before.

[00:33:06] Tony: Um, so it’d be good, good, it’d be good to know,

[00:33:10] Tony: uh, what the pro­file, I

[00:33:12] Tony: guess, of the base is. It’s all anony­mous, um,

[00:33:15] Tony: but it may help us try to under­stand if, uh, QAV has been caus­ing us to trade more than what I nor­mal­ly

[00:33:22] Tony: would.

[00:33:24] Cameron: Yeah, we’ve been doing. A range of analy­sis over the last cou­ple of weeks, try­ing to fig­ure this out and haven’t real­ly made any progress yet, but this is the next step in try­ing to get some num­bers. So if you don’t mind fill­ing out the sur­vey, it is anony­mous. There are no names asso­ci­at­ed with it, but, uh, if we get.

[00:33:44] Cameron: Enough feed­back that there are enough high ADT, uh, mem­bers that might be skew­ing the per­for­mance of some of these stocks. We’re prob­a­bly all we want to get togeth­er and have a chat about it. So, the next step will be say, okay, if you, if you, if you said that you were one of those high [00:34:00] ADP, ADT peo­ple, how about we jump on a Zoom call and have a chat,

[00:34:06] Tony: well, and it could also be, I mean, you know, we’ve seen some strange things hap­pen­ing, um, like, Cred­it Corp, for exam­ple. I know it put out some bad news and that could explain away the rea­son why it dropped by, what was it, 30 per­cent in a day?

[00:34:19] Cameron: 38.

[00:34:20] Tony: Yeah, but it was also the day after it crossed the three point trend sell line for QAV.

[00:34:26] Tony: So, we may have been in the mix. Maybe it would have dropped 10 per­cent with­out QAV. I mean, it’s, I

[00:34:31] Tony: can look up Stock Doc­tor in the vol­umes,

[00:34:33] Tony: but I can’t tell who’s in those vol­umes. So,

[00:34:35] Cameron: Yeah,

[00:34:36] Tony: yeah, like I said, it’s just a the­o­ry, so it’d be good to have some more infor­ma­tion. So, um, thanks in advance if you fill out the anony­mous sur­vey.

[00:34:43] Cameron: yeah. Um, all right, mov­ing right along. What else is in the news that you want to talk about TK?

[00:34:52] Tony: A few things, um, there has been some stocks in the moves, speak­ing of, in the news, sor­ry, speak­ing of moves. Uh, [00:35:00] SSR went down, it’s on our buy list, but it went down quite a bit on the back of a quar­ter­ly update. And that seems to be hap­pen­ing a lot in this mar­ket, that, uh, stocks are drop­ping or rais­ing 10 per­cent in a day, which is real­ly kind of unusu­al in my expe­ri­ence.

[00:35:17] Tony: Often­times, a quar­ter­ly update won’t make much dif­fer­ence because, you know, it’s only three months since the last update, so either it’s a sign that there’s a very big dete­ri­o­ra­tion in the econ­o­my around the cor­ner that’s com­ing through on some of these stock updates, or it’s a sign that, I don’t know, peo­ple are get­ting their hair trig­gers out and just shoot­ing.

[00:35:39] Tony: The reverse hap­pened with Fleet Part­ners, um, the old ECX, which you talked about before. Uh, it went up on the, on an update, which said that they were, um, uh, buy­ing back their stock again, and they’ve been doing that for a while. So again, the stock was up, I think, um, might even have been up 5 to 10 per­cent on the day that was announced.

[00:35:57] Tony: So there’s a lot of moves going on, which [00:36:00] is a bit strange. Uh, a cou­ple of things while we’re at it on the buy list. Um, I was going to do a I was going through the buy list today work­ing out what to do a pulled pork on and there’s a stock called PACT, P A C T. It’s one of the, um, uh, con­tain­er man­u­fac­tur­ers that, um, kind of, um,

[00:36:20] Tony: is part of the loose Pratt fam­i­ly.

[00:36:23] Tony: So a guy called Rafi Jeminder. Um, who I think is relat­ed some­how to the peo­ple who, uh, uh, to Antho­ny Pratt, who now owns Vizzi. But any­way, that’s not, that’s not irrel­e­vant. No, I may have got that wrong.

[00:36:33] Cameron: Best, best friends with Don­ald Trump?

[00:36:36] Tony: Well, Antho­ny Pratt is. Um, so PGH any­way, look like, well, he’s on the buy list, but be care­ful. It’s, it’s, um, uh, Rafi Jamin­der, the CEO and major own­er is gonna, has issued a, um, a takeover to take it off the, ASX to buy it out basi­cal­ly, so just be aware of that.

[00:36:56] Tony: I think we spoke about Har­vey Nor­man once before, it’s still [00:37:00] on the buy list, but I think it’s a mis­take in the data from mem­o­ry

[00:37:03] Tony: in terms of the num­ber of shares it’s com­ing through from Stock Doc­tor’s data providers, so just be care­ful with that

[00:37:09] Tony: one too.

[00:37:11] Cameron: Yeah, I keep ask­ing Vic­tor about that and I, Vic­tor at Stock Doc­tor, and I don’t think he’s resolved that one yet.

[00:37:21] Tony: Yeah. Okay. But just be care­ful. I mean, do your own research when you’re going to buy a stock, but that’s, there’s a cou­ple there which are on the buy list, but maybe should­n’t be bought at the moment. Unless you’re an expe­ri­enced trad­er dur­ing takeovers, then just be aware that PACT is under, under a deal.

[00:37:37] Tony: I noticed today that, um, Buf­fet­t’s quar­ter­ly report came out and Berk­shire Hath­away is sit­ting on its largest pile of cash ever. The head­line in the AFR was Buf­fet­t’s cash pile hits 241 bil­lion, record high on scarce deals. So, I know he’s, uh, his ADT is a lot larg­er than our ADT, so he’s, [00:38:00] uh, he’s find­ing it hard to buy things at the moment just as we are.

[00:38:03] Tony: Uh, but the oth­er thing which, um, Which struck me, and I’ll just try and find it in the arti­cle. Uh, there’s a sec­tion in the arti­cle talk­ing about the fact that his oper­at­ing com­pa­nies were expect­ed to report low­er num­bers next quar­ter. Um, they’re buy­ing back more stock, which is not unusu­al if they can’t find some­thing to do with their cash. any­way, I can’t find it, I’m just skim­ming through the arti­cle. But, but, uh, anoth­er sign that the U. S. econ­o­my may not be as strong as it, um, is going for­ward than it is now. well that’s all I got. RBA meets tomor­row as we spoke about. The oth­er inter­est­ing thing is that the gov­ern­ment went through this big rig­ma­role of review­ing the RBA.

[00:38:47] Tony: Now, you know, maybe that was done to, um, jus­ti­fy not, uh, renew­ing the sev­en year term of the past, uh, per­son who retires soon. Uh, But they, the, the [00:39:00] review set up said, let’s set up two boards. One to look after mon­e­tary pol­i­cy and one to be the gov­er­nance for the oper­at­ing parts of the RBA. Uh, so the gov­ern­ment just announced they put Michelle Bul­lock in charge of both.

[00:39:12] Tony: So , I, I, you know, was the review­er waste of time. What’s, what’s the point guys? Um, it’s, it’s Meet the new Boss, same as the old boss, meet the new cor­po­rate struc­ture, same as the old cor­po­rate struc­ture. The RVA seems to have, uh, got­ten a. Come through a review with a clean bull of health in, in effect. And the only thing that’s changed is the gov­er­nor.

[00:39:34] Tony: And, and the only dif­fer­ence between them, well, is there’s not

[00:39:37] Tony: much dif­fer­ence between them. So one’s male and one’s female.

[00:39:40] Tony: Um, so it’s a, I think it’s a bit of a shame, this whole review of the RBA. But

[00:39:46] Tony: any­way,

[00:39:48] Tony: uh,

[00:39:49] Cameron: Is it just a tem­po­rary thing, like they’re putting her in charge of both until they can find some­one to run one. of them?

[00:39:56] Tony: No, pos­si­bly, but at the moment, she’s going to be doing what [00:40:00] the old guy did, but just do it with two boards rather than

[00:40:02] Tony: one,

[00:40:04] Cameron: Well, that’s what they always say, Tony. Two boards are bet­ter than one, I’m

[00:40:07] Tony: espe­cial­ly when they’re doing the same job over­all as the old board was. So it’s twice the cost, by the way, to the tax­pay­er.

[00:40:14] Cameron: Hmm.

[00:40:15] Tony: Any­way, I’m going to do a pulled pork, uh, that reminds me, I was going through work­ing out what to do a pulled pork on, and it’s hard to find some­thing on the buy list that’s a buy and that we haven’t done before.

[00:40:28] Tony: So do you keep a list of the pri­or pulled porks? I may have to start repeat­ing myself, but I’ll do it with the old­est ones

[00:40:35] Tony: first.

[00:40:36] Cameron: Hmm. I don’t, but I can

[00:40:39] Tony: No, that’s fine. I’ve…

[00:40:40] Cameron: togeth­er.

[00:40:41] Tony: My mem­o­ry’s fad­ing over the last four years as to what I’ve done and what I haven’t done.

[00:40:45] Tony: Uh, I was gonna do one on BlueScope Steel, but I start­ed to look into it and I thought, yeah, I think I’ve done this.

[00:40:51] Cameron: Hmm.

[00:40:52] Tony: Um, do you recall me doing BlueScope Steel?

[00:40:56] Cameron: Um, no,

[00:40:58] Tony: Okay. Well, I can do it [00:41:00] next week. It was back on the buy list again today. So, um, I can do it next week, but I thought I’d done it when I start­ed to do it. Any­way, I have found one, um, it’s called Ser­viceS­tream and the code is SSM. uh, it’s a, it’s a com­pa­ny that, um, designs, builds, and main­tains infra­struc­ture basi­cal­ly for tel­cos, util­i­ties, and a bit of trans­porta­tion infra­struc­ture these days.

[00:41:28] Tony: So it deals in large com­plex cabling. Struc­tures and com­pa­nies, uh, was big in the NBN when it was first rolling out and prob­a­bly still is big in the NBN, uh, big, big cus­tomer. The tel­cos are a big cus­tomer. Uh, it’s cur­rent­ly a Josephine. Um, it’s above its sell line and it’s buy line, but it’s, I think it’s a cou­ple of cents below last mon­th’s close.

[00:41:51] Tony: So it’s not nec­es­sar­i­ly a buy right now, but. Peo­ple may wan­na have a look at it. Um, inter­est­ing com­pa­ny and I, and it’s on the buy list and it’s, [00:42:00] it’s def­i­nite­ly there for val­ue. I’m not sure it’s gonna be there for qual­i­ty, so I’ll just run through that and, and talk about it. Talk about why I think that, um, ADT is 623,000, so it’s a rea­son­able size.

[00:42:12] Tony: for peo­ple to have a look at, uh, with their own port­fo­lios. As I said, engi­neer­ing firm. Um, his­to­ry large­ly came out of the tel­co sec­tor. And I remem­ber them, they’ve been around for 20 odd years or more. And inter­est­ing­ly enough, I could­n’t find a his­to­ry, a cor­po­rate his­to­ry on their web­site. So I pieced togeth­er a lit­tle bit through news­pa­per clip­pings, etc.

[00:42:31] Tony: Um, I remem­ber them, but my mem­o­ry of them as being a tel­co infra­struc­ture provider. And one of the prob­lems that they had over the years was they basi­cal­ly only had two key cus­tomers, Tel­stra and the NBN. But it looks like, um, now they’ve, they’ve real­ized that and they’ve de risked that depen­dence. And even though Tel­co is still prob­a­bly half their busi­ness, they’re now about 40%, um, with, uh, the, uh, oth­er types of infra­struc­tures, main­ly elec­tric­i­ty com­pa­nies, and 10 per­cent [00:43:00] is this grow­ing part of their busi­ness with, uh, trans­port net­works.

[00:43:04] Tony: Uh, they, they did. Uh, pur­chase, lend, leas­es, uh, ser­vices, busi­ness a cou­ple of years ago. So I guess they’ve been acknowl­edg­ing the fact that they don’t want to be too depen­dent on big tel­cos and they’re try­ing to diver­si­fy away from them. So that’s all good. Uh, I think, um, I think it’d be fair to say with­out, you know, being too neg­a­tive on the com­pa­ny, they’ve had a bit of a rocky road of acqui­si­tions and con­tracts gone wrong.

[00:43:31] Tony: Uh, con­tract blowouts, um, fixed price con­tracts not being, um, You know, prof­itable for them, or con­struc­tion delays, etc. And I went back over their his­to­ry, they do put all their annu­al reports online, and um, this was the… Lead sort of sen­tence in the 2023 direc­tor’s report, and it goes, while the board was dis­ap­point­ed with the report­ed oner­ous con­tract and asso­ci­at­ed finan­cial impacts on the [00:44:00] busi­ness, we are pleased by the way in which the exec­u­tive team has steered the busi­ness through this issue.

[00:44:05] Tony: And if I go back to the The old­est report on their web­site, 2010, it says, I am pleased to report that the man­age­ment team have dealt deci­sive­ly with the prob­lems the com­pa­ny encoun­tered with the ser­vice stream infra­struc­ture ser­vices. The man­age­ment of that issue has not pre­vent­ed the com­pa­ny from retain­ing its major con­tracts and rela­tion­ships with Tel­stra, Etsa, Optus, and Voda­fone, and win­ning the busi­ness with impor­tant new cus­tomers such as Ori­gin Ener­gy and the Queens­land State Gov­ern­ment.

[00:44:31] Tony: So, large con­tracts on thin mar­gins can make for a You know, a very volatile busi­ness. And I guess that’s my, um, head­line for, for peo­ple who are inter­est­ed in look­ing at this, it has a rocky his­to­ry. It has been a bit of a falling knife over the last sort of four or five years, but it has just sort of come around a lit­tle bit, uh, and start­ed to appear on the buy list, um, it’s turned, the stock price has turned around, um, [00:45:00] it’s look­ing like a kind of Nike swoosh at the moment, long decline down the, um, down the main part of the logo, and then just.

[00:45:06] Tony: Turn­ing up at the bot­tom. So that’s the busi­ness. Um, if I look at the num­bers, the share price I did the analy­sis at is, was 83 cents, which was less than con­sen­sus tar­get, very low yield of only 1. 81%. So we can’t score it on that. Stock Doc­tor, Stock Doc­tor finan­cial health was­n’t strong. It’s cur­rent­ly in their ear­ly warn­ing cat­e­go­ry.

[00:45:28] Tony: And it’s been there for a long time. So it’s not going to score on the finan­cial health, um, Dimen­sion, which is a bit wor­ry­ing in itself, but any­way, um, but it does score because it’s a recov­er­ing finan­cial health. So I’ve spo­ken about that before. I tend to like recov­er­ing finan­cial health. Um, it does, it does mean the man­age­ment are deal­ing with their prob­lems and they’re con­cen­trat­ed on the finan­cials and try­ing to write them.

[00:45:52] Tony: If I go through the num­bers, the ROE for this com­pa­ny is only 2. 5%. Not that we use that in our scor­ing, but it’s, um, it’s a very [00:46:00] low Uh, Mar­gin, Busi­ness, and that’s one of the things which works, um, against it, I think, in some ways. Um, how­ev­er, Prop­Caf is 5. 39 times, so this is going to score well from the val­u­a­tion met­ric, but thin on the ground from the, um, the sort of busi­ness per­for­mance side of things.

[00:46:19] Tony: Uh, The share price of 83 cents isn’t below IV one or IV two, so we can’t score it from that point of view. Uh, but it is below the net equi­ty per share plus 30, which is 98%, 98 cents, sor­ry, net equi­ty per share, plus 30%, which is 98 cents. So it’s, IT scores from that point of view. So on the val­u­a­tion side, not too bad.

[00:46:41] Tony: Uh. The oth­er thing it scores well for is earn­ings per share is fore­cast to grow and almost triple over the next year or so. So whether we believe that or next year’s annu­al report starts with, uh, despite the prob­lems we’ve had in our big con­tract with so and so, we, our man­age­ment have got us through it.

[00:46:59] Tony: We look for­ward [00:47:00] to the future. But any­way, they’re fore­cast­ing a large Fore­cast, uh, uh, increase the fore­cast. Increase in earn­ings per share is 270%, which is good, which means we score it for growth over pe, which in this case is 6.16. Um, when the thresh­old is 1.5, before we scare it, uh, score it. So that’s good.

[00:47:19] Tony: Uh, don’t have an own­er, founder direc­tors only hold 1%, so we can’t score it for that. Inter­est­ing­ly enough, the PE on this com­pa­ny is 45 times. Um, which we, which we can’t score it for. It’s not the high­est or the low­est though, fun­ni­ly enough. But that’s a huge lot of cash com­ing in that does­n’t make it to the bot­tom line.

[00:47:37] Tony: Um, which is an inter­est­ing sort of telling sort of thing in itself, and I’ll come, I think the rea­son in this might be that it might be like the one I did last week, the pulled pork last week, where I spoke about Data 3, where they tend to have Large con­tracts where, uh, you know, basi­cal­ly they get large rev­enues from sup­plies and then pay that, sor­ry, large rev­enue [00:48:00] from cus­tomers and then pay most of it back to sup­pli­ers on, on their thin mar­gins.

[00:48:03] Tony: I think that might be going on here as well, uh, because you can look at the oper­at­ing cash flow and it, um, if you break it down, there are large, uh, sales to cus­tomers, but then there are large pay­ments to sup­pli­ers and the cash flow that’s left is, uh, you know, quite tiny com­pared to the bil­lions going in and out of the account.

[00:48:21] Tony: On top of that, it looks like there was a tax refund this year of some, uh, 44 mil­lion, which is boost­ing oper­at­ing cash, uh, which was about, oper­at­ing cash flow, I think was about 90 odd mil­lion. So, um, it’s, it’s pos­si­ble it’s in one of the com­pa­nies, those com­pa­nies that have a good, a good half or a good year from a Prop­Caf point of view, and then it dis­ap­pears again into the future.

[00:48:44] Tony: Uh, But yeah, def­i­nite­ly a thin, a thin mar­gin. Net prof­it for this com­pa­ny was 0. 58 of a per­cent this year. So look, the risks, um, well, sor­ry, I should give you the score. All in all, uh, well, sor­ry, it did score for a new [00:49:00] upturn and did­n’t score for con­sis­tent­ly increas­ing equi­ty. All up, it was 11 out of 16 or 69 per­cent, uh, for the qual­i­ty score and the QAV score was 0.

[00:49:10] Tony: 13. So towards the bot­tom of our buy list, um, I think the risks on this are. prob­a­bly self explana­to­ry from what I said that this com­pa­ny oper­ates on razor thin mar­gins and there­fore if there’s a mis­take it does­n’t have a big buffer to trade its way through it with­out dam­ag­ing the prof­itabil­i­ty. But they have also called out in their in their recent state­ments that infla­tion is impact­ing on their busi­ness and I guess that may be because a lot of the con­tracts are fixed price and were put in place.

[00:49:41] Tony: Before infla­tion was as big an issue as it is now, but even if that’s not the case, they are also call­ing out that it’s dif­fi­cult to find labor at the moment. There’s a labor short­age going on in their engi­neer­ing busi­ness­es. So a cou­ple of risks there. On the pos­i­tive side though, they are fore­cast­ing a big increase in earn­ings.

[00:49:58] Tony: So if we [00:50:00] take that at face val­ue, then the shares should go up based on the earn­ings increas­ing next year. So on the buy list, may not be there next half. Um, raise the thin mar­gins.

[00:50:11] Tony: Um, does have a his­to­ry of being volatile, uh, but does have a fore­cast to, um, improve prof­it next, uh, next year and is trad­ing at a very low Prop­Caf.

[00:50:21] Tony: Ha

[00:50:21] Tony: ha

[00:50:22] Cameron: And I own it in my Super Port­fo­lio. near­ly a rule one sell for me. I think on Fri­day, but it’s rebound­ed a bit today, so I’ve still got it.

[00:50:34] Tony: Okay.

[00:50:36] Cameron: Hope­ful­ly, now that you’ve done that, it’s going to go to the moon,

[00:50:39] Tony: Yeah,

[00:50:41] Tony: right, Well, I’ll do Blue Scope

[00:50:43] Tony: Steel next

[00:50:43] Tony: week, which, unless some­thing

[00:50:45] Cameron: I looked it

[00:50:46] Cameron: up. You did it in

[00:50:47] Cameron: Decem­ber.

[00:50:48] Tony: I thought so, okay, I won’t do it then. I’ll try and find some­thing else.

[00:50:51] Cameron: Good luck with that.

[00:50:52] Tony: Yeah,

[00:50:55] Cameron: Well, that’s it.

[00:50:55] Cameron: We have no, uh, ques­tions this week. Again, [00:51:00] peo­ple are too depressed to ask ques­tions, so, um, After Hours, Tony, Mel­bourne Cup Tips.

[00:51:06] Tony: well that’s the ques­tion on every­one’s lip is that’s the unstat­ed ques­tion out there is

[00:51:09] Cameron: the only thing any­one’s

[00:51:10] Tony: what does Rud­dy tip for the Mel­bourne Cup?

[00:51:15] Cameron: and,

[00:51:16] Tony: Oh well, Rud­dy’s tip, he likes the Japan­ese horse called Breakup. That’s his tip for the Mel­bourne Cup. My tip is vow and declare. Which has had some ter­rif­ic runs recent­ly and, uh, it’s got a good weight. It won the Mel­bourne Cup a cou­ple of years ago. Um, so I like Vow and Declare and my best ruffy is a horse called Vir­tu­ous Cir­cle, which is about 200 to one.

[00:51:39] Tony: Um, it’s, uh, has­n’t.

[00:51:41] Cameron: a roughie?

[00:51:42] Tony: Uh, a horse at long odds that could still win. The val­ue, the val­ue propo­si­tion, not the qual­i­ty, the val­ue propo­si­tion. Um, so vir­tu­ous cir­cle. So it’s not unusu­al for a horse at very triple dig­it odds to run a place in the Mel­bourne Cup. So vir­tu­ous cir­cle might be that horse this time and [00:52:00]certainly gets into the very low weight giv­en its form, not its recent form, but its form

[00:52:05] Tony: behind that.

[00:52:06] Tony: And it’s a New Zealand bred horse and they tend to breed, stay as bet­ter than we do. So vow and declare to win vir­tu­ous cir­cle each way. That’s my tip.

[00:52:14] Cameron: Right. Well, good luck with that. Tomor­row, we’ll see how you go this year, and Breakup is Rud­dy’s, uh,

[00:52:24] Tony: yeah. And he, the rea­son I’m giv­ing you Rod­dy’s tip is he tipped GoldTrip last year. Which one? And it’s back in this year. He likes Gold Trip again this year, but he likes

[00:52:35] Tony: Breakup bet­ter.

[00:52:36] Cameron: Right. What’s his long term track record like,

[00:52:40] Tony: Well, he lives in Wag­ga Wag­gas, and

[00:52:43] Tony: they’re slow­ly trad­ed down from Bris­bane, Syd­ney, and Mel­bourne, so you get

[00:52:48] Tony: a

[00:52:48] Tony: fair idea. It’s not fun­ny, his lav­ish

[00:52:51] Tony: lifestyle.

[00:52:53] Cameron: I don’t want to cast dis­per­sions on Wag­ga Wag­ga. Sure. It’s a very love­ly place to

[00:52:58] Tony: it is, he’s one from one at [00:53:00] the moment, which is bet­ter than

[00:53:00] Tony: me.

[00:53:01] Cameron: par­tic­u­lar­ly if you’re sleep­ing with the, uh, Pre­mier of New South Wales, Wag­ga Wag­ga a place to be.

[00:53:07] Tony: He went out on Fri­day night to, um,

[00:53:08] Tony: the con­ser­va­to­ry of music or some­thing to see a school con­cert. And he came away and I said, how was it? And he said, Oh, it was mon­ey well spent by Gladys and her boyfriend.

[00:53:18] Cameron: There you go.

[00:53:20] Tony: Yeah. What about you? What have you

[00:53:21] Tony: been see­ing or watch­ing or

[00:53:23] Cameron: We went to the Sparks con­cert, came to Bris­bane for the very first time last Thurs­day night, Chris­sy and I and Fox all went. Cause Fox is a bit of a Sparks fan too. Um, and it was fan­tas­tic. I want to thank Jeff, QAV club mem­ber down in Mel­bourne who, uh, gave me notice that the tick­ets were on sale and I grabbed them.

[00:53:51] Cameron: That was my birth­day present to myself was to go see Sparks this year. And, um, it was fab­u­lous. A great night. Very, very, [00:54:00] very great night. One, one to remem­ber.

[00:54:03] Tony: real­ly? Wow. What was spe­cial about them? Because my mem­o­ry of them is, um,

[00:54:08] Tony: the time MTV launched, and they had some,

[00:54:11] Tony: uh, a clip called Beat the Clock, I think it was called. It was just on con­tin­u­ous rota­tion, and I got thor­ough­ly sick of see­ing and watch­ing, wait­ing for some­thing else to come on

[00:54:19] Tony: MTV.

[00:54:21] Cameron: right. Well, um, It’s like, I mean, I guess it’s, they, they were very enter­tain­ing for I mean, you know, you’ve

[00:54:29] Cameron: seen the doc­u­men­tary, they’re a bit of a, they’re sort of some­where between a com­e­dy act and real music, like their songs have always been heav­i­ly

[00:54:41] Cameron: dosed with. sar­casm, and their lyrics, uh, are very, very fun­ny.

[00:54:49] Cameron: Like every song typ­i­cal­ly is kind of sar­cas­tic and fun­ny and is a, is a, some sort of a

[00:54:56] Cameron: com­men­tary on mod­ern life. And they have been going since [00:55:00] 1971. They’ve, put out 26 albums. Uh, so two, for the peo­ple who don’t know Sparks, two broth­ers, Rus­sell and Ron Mayle, been going since 1971, as I said, um, Rus­sel­l’s the singer. He’s 75. Ron, his old­er broth­er is 78, I think. He’s the song­writer and plays key­boards.

[00:55:22] Cameron: Rus­sell bounced around the stage for the full 90 min­utes, jump­ing, singing in this high falset­to, gave it 150 per­cent per­for­mance, like insane amount of ener­gy for a 75 year old. I, I think I would be flat out bounc­ing around the stage for 90 min­utes like that, but doing it and singing in a high falset­to through most of it, for­get about it.

[00:55:46] Cameron: I could­n’t do it. Ron sits there. Ron’s whole shtick has always been to look like he’s total­ly bored. He used to have a Hitler mus­tache. Now he’s got a very thin, tiny mus­tache at the top of his lift. He’s wear­ing a suit [00:56:00] jack­et, dress shirt, and a tie, and then com­fy track­suit pants red Nike sneak­ers on He looks com­plete­ly bored for the whole night, except when he gets up and does a dance in the mid­dle of one song. He does his patent­ed dance, uh, with his big shit eat­ing grin on his face. then he. Stop sud­den­ly, gets the Dow­el, look back on his face, turns around and back down and sits down at his key­board.

[00:56:25] Cameron: So it was very, very enter­tain­ing. And the songs are great. If you’re a Sparks fan, you know, you love the songs. There’s a lot of real­ly good sing along tracks. But I think the big thing is, you know, every­one knows that they have just strug­gled. They’ve nev­er real­ly had a big break in the 50 years they’ve going.

[00:56:44] Cameron: They just kept doing it.

[00:56:46] Cameron: had enough of a cult audi­ence that they could just keep doing it year after year after year. And then Edgar Wright put out his doc­u­men­tary dur­ing COVID and now they’ve got this, now they’re play­ing at [00:57:00] Glas­ton­bury, they did the Syd­ney Opera House. They’ve, it was their first time in Aus­tralia in like 20 years.

[00:57:06] Cameron: They’ve got this um, mas­sive New glob­al audi­ence now. They’ve in their mid to late sev­en­ties, final­ly made it. And it’s just, I don’t think every­one there’s just a lot of love for them. Like, you know, con­grat­u­la­tions.

[00:57:20] Tony: Right, it’s

[00:57:20] Cameron: you final­ly got there just by per­sist­ing for 50 years, you got there. And now they have this mas­sive, um.

[00:57:29] Cameron: Glob­al fan base and love for them. And yeah, it was kind of, I think every­one who went to see them goes to see them just to applaud their, um, per­sis­tence and, you know, their sto­ry, their jour­ney, just doing what they’ve been doing, mil­lion dif­fer­ent musi­cal styles, but always the same sort of thing. Like they’ve always just, Ron just writes these high­ly sar­cas­tic songs.

[00:57:55] Cameron: Um. And they were also pio­neers with elec­tron­ic [00:58:00] music and all this kind of stuff, as Edgar Wright’s doc­u­men­tary point­ed out. They’re like, a lot of very famous musi­cians, uh, look to them, look to Sparks for inspi­ra­tion, all that kind of stuff. Any­way, that was good.

[00:58:11] Tony: Yeah. good. And, uh, speak­ing of peo­ple who are 78, I watched the Sylvester Stal­lone

[00:58:17] Tony: doc­u­men­tary last night, Sly,

[00:58:19] Cameron: Yeah, that like?

[00:58:20] Tony: looks like it’s been put out to copy Arnold Schwarzeneg­ger’s doc­u­men­tary, but it was good. It’s a good doc­u­men­tary, a good sto­ry, but he’s

[00:58:26] Tony: 78 too.

[00:58:28] Cameron: real­ly,

[00:58:29] Tony: yeah, and, you know, talked about, they showed sort of x rays from his back where he’s got four or five bolts put in it, and he’s real­ly tak­en a beat­ing from

[00:58:38] Tony: being an

[00:58:38] Tony: action

[00:58:38] Tony: hero.

[00:58:39] Tony: Like,

[00:58:40] Cameron: Oh, yeah, like I’ve always admired his sto­ry, like I admire

[00:58:43] Cameron: Schwarzeneg­ger’s sto­ry, like, the whole sto­ry about how he wrote Rocky and,

[00:58:48] Cameron: you know, demand­ed that, uh, he play, he star in it as well, he’s down on the bones of his ass, and, you know, it’s a great, it’s a great sto­ry. Yeah, he

[00:58:58] Tony: It’s worth watch­ing. Quentin Taran­ti­no’s [00:59:00] in it, which

[00:59:01] Tony: is always ener­getic and enjoy­able to lis­ten to. He about the Lords of Flat­bush, which was

[00:59:06] Tony: Stal­lone’s prob­a­bly, you know, first screen role that we

[00:59:08] Tony: would know. Uh, yeah. And, um, yeah, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s worth watch­ing.

[00:59:14] Cameron: Except Death Race 3000. Which I a year or so ago. It was one of the, um, Roger Cor­man’s low bud­get sci­ence fic­tion, dystopi­an things, and Stal­lone, very young Stal­lone, is sort of one of the over the top bad guys in this race car match. Him and, uh, David, um,

[00:59:40] Tony: Para­dine.

[00:59:41] Cameron: Car­ra­dine, thank yeah. Who? Like that film came out in the mid 70s and he basi­cal­ly looks like Darth Vad­er.

[00:59:50] Cameron: Came out a cou­ple of years before Darth Vad­er, before Star Wars. He’s basi­cal­ly wear­ing Darth Vader’s cos­tume. And we know that Lucas worked for Cor­man, as all those guys did. Lucas [01:00:00] and Spiel­berg and Cop­po­la, they all came up work­ing for Roger Cor­man. Um, James Cameron, um, uh, the guy who made Scar­face, what’s his name?

[01:00:12] Tony: No, Bri­an De Pal­ma.

[01:00:13] Cameron: De Pal­ma.

[01:00:14] Cameron: thank you, yeah. So, yeah, any­way.

[01:00:18] Tony: And you men­tioned it was your birth­day. I think I, I think I missed it. I’m sor­ry to say, so hap­py birth­day for a cou­ple of weeks ago,

[01:00:24] Cameron: That was a month ago,

[01:00:24] Tony: have, a month ago,

[01:00:25] Tony: sor­ry.

[01:00:26] Cameron: yeah, over and gone. Don’t wor­ry about it. I try and ignore my birth­days as much as pos­si­ble.

[01:00:32] Cameron: Uh, my only oth­er tips this week, oh, the Bea­t­les

[01:00:34] Cameron: track. What did you think of the new Bea­t­les

[01:00:35] Cameron: track?

[01:00:36] Tony: Yeah,

[01:00:36] Tony: big yawn, I thought, and over­hyped.

[01:00:39] Cameron: Yeah,

[01:00:40] Tony: putting out that

[01:00:40] Tony: doc­u­men­tary as well, which we’ve pret­ty much seen from get back

[01:00:43] Tony: any­way. Uh, yeah, it makes me think of Paul McCart­ney being a busi­ness­man first and a musi­cian sec­ond when

[01:00:50] Tony: I see

[01:00:50] Tony: things like

[01:00:50] Tony: that.

[01:00:52] Cameron: Yeah, look, it was, it had some sen­ti­men­tal val­ue, I guess, to hear. Them play­ing togeth­er, [01:01:00] but, uh, I was real­ly, uh, I real­ly thought maybe this time, this is the last ever Bea­t­les sin­gle we’re ever going to hear. Maybe they’ll real­ly knock it out the park.

[01:01:09] Cameron: Not real­ly.

[01:01:11] Tony: it was def­i­nite­ly a B side, was­n’t it?

[01:01:13] Cameron: Oh, if that, like I, you know, John’s thing is nice. And I was wait­ing for Paul to come in with the Paul verse. Key change, lit­tle bit upbeat. Because it’s kind of dirgey, it’s slow and melan­choly. Paul comes along. Woke up, got out of bed, dragged across my head.

[01:01:30] Cameron: No. No, like, real­ly, like, it just needs George Mar­tin.

[01:01:34] Cameron: I mean, Giles Mar­tin is great, but it real­ly needs George, I think, to go. Alright, this is bor­ing. Let’s, uh, it up a lit­tle bit.

[01:01:42] Cameron: I think.

[01:01:43] Tony: Yeah,

[01:01:44] Cameron: He was more of the mag­ic than

[01:01:45] Cameron: we often give him cred­it for.

[01:01:47] Tony: And that’s the thought I had when I saw Paul McCart­ney last week in con­cert. Like, there’s this. When you’re watch­ing the songs, you sort of get the feel­ing there’s an orches­tral qual­i­ty to them. There’s

[01:01:58] Tony: a clas­si­cal [01:02:00] music. It comes through like a sub­text out of some of the songs.

[01:02:03] Tony: hard to explain, but, um, that’s the feel­ing I

[01:02:06] Tony: had. And, uh, that must’ve been the George Mar­tin

[01:02:08] Tony: input com­ing through.

[01:02:12] Cameron: And I think Giles, his son, is a great pro­duc­er, uh, and a good, um, cura­tor, I guess, of their work and his father’s work. But, you know, George had a cer­tain lev­el of author­i­ty with the boys in the six­ties and they respect­ed him. And I think he had a lot of import into the final prod­uct, which, um. Or maybe, at least towards the very end, like in the get back ses­sions and that kind of stuff, I think his had dwin­dled to a cer­tain extent.

[01:02:43] Cameron: Any­who, uh, look, my oth­er, my music tip for this week is a French jazz trum­peter I’ve just dis­cov­ered, Eric Tre­faz. Been around for a long time. I think his first album came out in the ear­ly 90s. I’ve just dis­cov­ered him. Very, uh, [01:03:00] sim­i­lar to Miles’s real­ly mel­low, uh, Uber cool Myles, Span­ish Steps, uh, that kind of stuff.

[01:03:10] Cameron: If you, if you like real­ly mel­low Myles Davis, check out Eric Tre­faz. It’s nice sort of work­ing back­ground music or din­ner music. He, he, he has a, he mix­es it up a lit­tle bit with some mod­ern beats, you know, every now and again, but it’s real­ly just this atmos­pher­ic, slow, mut­ed trum­pet. A lot of it. Very good.

[01:03:34] Cameron: It’s like hav­ing a whole new Myles cat­a­log to lis­ten to.

[01:03:38] Tony: Wow.

[01:03:38] Cameron: And my TV rec­om­men­da­tion for peo­ple who like real­ly out there com­e­dy, like peo­ple who like, I’d say Python and Mr. Show. If you don’t like those, don’t check this guy out, but have you seen I Think I Should Be Leav­ing with Tim Robin­son on Net­flix?

[01:03:55] Tony: No,

[01:03:56] Cameron: He’s done about three sea­sons. He’s an ex SNL guy. He [01:04:00] did like one sea­son as a per­former on SNL, then he was a writer. He’s got the show. It’s pro­duced by the Lone­ly Island guys, Andy Sam­berg, etc. But it is, it is the zani­est, um, sketch com­e­dy series I’ve seen, I think, prob­a­bly since Mr. Show. Uh, it’s very out there.

[01:04:25] Cameron: Um, he plays these char­ac­ters that are gen­er­al­ly very angry and unhinged in, uh, social set­tings, but it’s,

[01:04:33] Tony: no. Perb your

[01:04:34] Tony: enthu­si­asm

[01:04:35] Tony: style or

[01:04:37] Cameron: Way more unhinged. Yeah, like a com­plete lev­el. Lar­ry’s just an ass­hole, um, and, does­n’t give a shit. This guy’s unhinged, uh, he plays these unhinged

[01:04:48] Cameron: char­ac­ters in, you know, var­i­ous social and work set­tings, but it’s, it, the thing I like, I like com­e­dy where they take a strange idea. And then just [01:05:00] push it, and push it, and push it, uh, beyond where it should be pushed. Where it’s, it just becomes annoy­ing for char­ac­ter to just keep push­ing the same bad idea over and won’t let it go. You know, peo­ple who just can’t let some­thing go? They just… Want want to do some­thing because they want to do it, and they’ll just keep doing it.

[01:05:25] Cameron: Not give a shit about the con­se­quences. They’ll just keep push­ing. No, no social aware­ness.

[01:05:31] Tony: Like sparks.

[01:05:34] Cameron: Okay, I think they do it with full aware­ness of doing.

[01:05:41] Cameron: Well with that, uh, that’s all I’ve got to share, Tony. ASX to you.

[01:05:47] Tony: hap­py ASXCAM, and send some ques­tions in next

[01:05:49] Tony: week, that’d be great, peo­ple.

[01:05:51] Cameron: Or don’t,

[01:05:52] Tony: Or don’t, yeah.

[01:05:54] Cameron: what­ev­er. If you don’t, have any that’s fine. Hap­py ASX every­one. [01:06:00]QAV a good week.

[01:06:00] Tony: Yep. See ya. [01:07:00]