QAV Light Weekly Update — 13 July 2026

Hap­py Mon­day, Light Brigade!

And a big wel­come to all of our new mem­bers.

I had a fun week­end. Chris­sy and I did a two-day Wing Chun sem­i­nar with Mas­ter Andrew Che­ung (his father is Grand­mas­ter William Che­ung, stu­dent of Ip Man, and the per­son who intro­duced Bruce Lee to kung fu), the Chief Instruc­tor for The Glob­al Tra­di­tion­al Wing Chun Kung Fu Fed­er­a­tion. That was how we cel­e­brat­ed our 18th anniver­sary. 

One of the core prin­ci­ples of Wing Chun is “don’t fight force with force”. Because the art was (accord­ing to tra­di­tion) devel­oped by two women, it’s designed for small­er peo­ple to fight larg­er peo­ple, so we don’t rely on strength. We use skill, tech­nique, body mechan­ics, to use our oppo­nen­t’s force against them. And, of course, this reminds me of QAV. 

Part of the sys­tem Tony built uses mar­ket “forces” to beat the mar­ket. If the mar­ket is hyp­ing some­thing, we avoid it. If the mar­ket is avoid­ing some­thing, we seek it out. We want to be like water, flow­ing into the gaps left in the mar­ket by the larg­er forces. We are nim­ble, we are flex­i­ble, we use intel­li­gence and a “fight­ing” sys­tem (thanks, TK!). 

Market This Week (All Ordinaries)

The All Ordi­nar­ies end­ed the week down around 0.4%, clos­ing at 9,003.70:

• The ASX 200 lost 0.4% for the week, revers­ing the pri­or week’s gains as investors turned cau­tious after the IMF cut its 2026 growth fore­cast for Aus­tralia to 1.9% from 2.0%, and warned that infla­tion is like­ly to remain ele­vat­ed at around 4% this year.
• The RBA raised its cash rate three times in 2026, in Feb­ru­ary, March and May, lift­ing it to 4.35% before paus­ing in June; the min­utes from that June meet­ing, released this week, rat­tled mar­kets by sig­nalling fur­ther tight­en­ing remains on the table.
• Aus­tralia record­ed a trade deficit of A$3.0 bil­lion in May, swing­ing from an A$1.4 bil­lion sur­plus in April, with gold exports the largest drag, down 35% month-on-month, while iron ore exports also soft­ened.
• The ASX 200 rose 44 points, or 0.5%, to close at 8,806 on Fri­day, snap­ping a four-ses­sion los­ing streak, with BHP Group, Rio Tin­to, and Fortes­cue advanc­ing between 2.0% and 3.8% as iron ore and cop­per prices strength­ened.
• WiseTech Glob­al was the ASX 200’s best-per­form­ing IT stock on Tues­day, lift­ing 8.03%, after Richard White resigned as chair with imme­di­ate effect, not­ing that recent media atten­tion had become an “unnec­es­sary dis­trac­tion.”

All the best,
Cameron

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PORTFOLIO UPDATE

All time, our QAV Light port­fo­lio is up 19.30% against the ASX 200’s 9.77%, which means we’re run­ning at rough­ly dou­ble what the mar­ket has returned. That’s the whole point of this exer­cise, beat­ing the mar­ket over the long term, and so far so good.

Drill down into the wid­get above to see how we are per­form­ing over dif­fer­ent time­frames, or vis­it our live port­fo­lio page.

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SELLS

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BUYS

 1. RRL

I’m adding a sec­ond par­cel of RRL to our port­fo­lio this week. I know it was a “Pos­si­ble” buy last week, but it is still top of our buy list this week and GOLD remains a buy. If you want to know more about the break­down, read last week’s deep dive, noth­ing has changed, except the price has dropped 10 cents.

2. Kaiser Reef Limited (KAU)

Tony’s did a pulled pork on KAU on episode 918.

Found­ed in 2019, Kaiser Reef Lim­it­ed is one of Aus­trali­a’s new­er entrants in gold pro­duc­tion, oper­at­ing across the full val­ue chain from explo­ration and devel­op­ment through to min­ing and sale. The com­pa­ny is head­quar­tered in Subi­a­co, West­ern Aus­tralia, a sub­urb that has become some­thing of a hub for junior and mid-tier min­ing oper­a­tors drawn to prox­im­i­ty with Perth’s finan­cial and tech­ni­cal ser­vices net­works. Gold min­ing, at its core, involves locat­ing eco­nom­i­cal­ly viable ore deposits, extract­ing the rock, pro­cess­ing it to iso­late the met­al, and sell­ing the refined prod­uct into com­mod­i­ty mar­kets where the gold price is set glob­al­ly and large­ly beyond any sin­gle pro­duc­er’s con­trol. At a mar­ket cap­i­tal­i­sa­tion of $116.9 mil­lion, Kaiser Reef sits firm­ly in small-cap ter­ri­to­ry, com­pet­ing in a seg­ment of the Aus­tralian gold sec­tor pop­u­lat­ed by dozens of junior pro­duc­ers and explor­ers. This is not a dom­i­nant indus­try play­er with pric­ing lever­age or the bal­ance sheet depth of a major min­er. Kaiser Reef is bet­ter under­stood as a growth-stage oper­a­tor, still estab­lish­ing its pro­duc­tion pro­file and finan­cial track record, incor­po­rat­ed only six years ago and build­ing scale incre­men­tal­ly in a cap­i­tal-inten­sive indus­try where cash flow con­sis­ten­cy sep­a­rates sur­vivors from casu­al­ties.

Framework Overview

Kaiser Reef Lim­it­ed was trad­ing at $0.195 at the time of this analy­sis, imply­ing a mar­ket cap­i­tal­i­sa­tion of approx­i­mate­ly $116.9 mil­lion.

The QAV Score com­bines qual­i­ty and val­ue met­rics into a sin­gle com­pos­ite num­ber. The score for Kaiser Reef Lim­it­ed is 0.152. Our buy thresh­old is 0.10, and this stock is above it.

The Qual­i­ty Score is 45.50% against a 75% thresh­old; this com­pa­ny does not clear it. Qual­i­ty below thresh­old rais­es the bar on how cheap the stock needs to be to com­pen­sate.

Valuation

Intrinsic Value

Intrin­sic Val­ue 1 and 2 apply dif­fer­ent growth assump­tions to pro­duce a range of fair val­ue esti­mates. At $0.195, the stock is above Intrin­sic Val­ue 1 and above Intrin­sic Val­ue 2.

At cur­rent prices, you’re pay­ing above our esti­mat­ed intrin­sic val­ue. The case depends on con­tin­ued per­for­mance.

Book Value

Book val­ue is the com­pa­ny’s net asset val­ue, share­hold­ers’ equi­ty on the bal­ance sheet. The share price is above book val­ue, reflect­ing a mar­ket pre­mi­um above net assets gen­er­al­ly jus­ti­fied by high returns on equi­ty.

The Book Plus 30% test applies a more gen­er­ous thresh­old that allows for the pre­mi­um qual­i­ty busi­ness­es typ­i­cal­ly com­mand. Kaiser Reef Lim­it­ed does not pass this test. This lev­el of pre­mi­um to book isn’t unusu­al for qual­i­ty com­pounders, but it means less pro­tec­tion if earn­ings dis­ap­point.

Cash Generation & Liquidity

Operating Cash Flow

Price to Oper­at­ing Cash Flow mea­sures what the mar­ket is pay­ing for each dol­lar the busi­ness gen­er­ates from oper­a­tions.

The Price to Oper­at­ing Cash Flow ratio for Kaiser Reef Lim­it­ed is 2.98. Our thresh­old is 7x, and this stock clears it, indi­cat­ing the mar­ket isn’t sig­nif­i­cant­ly over­pay­ing for each dol­lar of oper­at­ing cash. At the cur­rent rate of cash gen­er­a­tion, it would take approx­i­mate­ly 3.0 years for oper­a­tions to pro­duce cash equiv­a­lent to the cur­rent mar­ket price.

Trading Liquidity

Aver­age dai­ly trade sits at $0.238 mil­lion, clas­si­fy­ing this as a Small-Cap stock. This is a thin­ly trad­ed stock. For larg­er investors, attempt­ing to build or exit a mean­ing­ful posi­tion could move the mar­ket against you. A prac­ti­cal guide­line: keep posi­tion size below 20% of aver­age dai­ly vol­ume, rough­ly $47,600 per trade in this case.

Profitability & Earnings

Current Profitability

The com­pa­ny is run­ning at a loss: EPS is neg­a­tive. The invest­ment case becomes a turn­around the­sis.

Financial Health

QAV assess­es finan­cial health by exam­in­ing bal­ance sheet strength, debt lev­els, and equi­ty trends. Kaiser Reef Lim­it­ed car­ries a Unknown health rat­ing with a Sta­ble trend.

Health trend data is unavail­able; bal­ance sheet assess­ment is lim­it­ed to what’s report­ed.

Equity Growth

Share­hold­ers’ equi­ty has not grown con­sis­tent­ly. Incon­sis­tent equi­ty growth war­rants a clos­er look at whether the busi­ness is retain­ing val­ue or dis­si­pat­ing it.

Management & Ownership

Direc­tor own­er­ship is a rough proxy for align­ment between man­age­ment and share­hold­ers.

Direc­tors at Kaiser Reef Lim­it­ed hold approx­i­mate­ly $2,799,063 worth of shares, rep­re­sent­ing 2.39% of mar­ket cap­i­tal­i­sa­tion. Our thresh­old is 10%; this com­pa­ny is below it. Man­age­men­t’s per­son­al finan­cial expo­sure to the stock is lim­it­ed, worth fac­tor­ing into how you weigh their stat­ed con­vic­tions.

Momentum & Income

Technical Signal

The stock has­n’t reg­is­tered a new 3‑point upturn. Price action remains in a pri­or pat­tern.

Dividend Yield

The div­i­dend yield falls below the cur­rent mort­gage rate, lim­it­ing the income argu­ment at this price.

Summary

At $0.195, the key fac­tors for Kaiser Reef Lim­it­ed are:

Strengths

• Price to Oper­at­ing Cash Flow ratio of 2.98

Concerns

• Com­pa­ny is cur­rent­ly mak­ing a loss (neg­a­tive EPS)
• Price above Intrin­sic Val­ue 1
• Price above Intrin­sic Val­ue 2
• Price above book val­ue
• Incon­sis­tent equi­ty growth
• No recent upturn in sen­ti­ment
• Low direc­tor own­er­ship at 2.39%

Whether the cur­rent price ade­quate­ly com­pen­sates for these risks depends on your port­fo­lio con­text, risk tol­er­ance, and invest­ment time­frame.

Key Metrics

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And here’s my TikTok of the week.

CURRENT HOLDINGS & HISTORICAL TRADES

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** Please remem­ber to review our Buy­ing Guide­lines to under­stand which cap bands you should be look­ing at and oth­er impor­tant con­sid­er­a­tions.

DISCLOSURE

Please review our trad­ing and dis­clo­sure pol­i­cy.

FOR NEW MEMBERS

If you’re new to QAV Light, here’s a quick reminder on how it works.

1. We send you an email every Mon­day advis­ing which stocks we are adding to our Light port­fo­lio.
2. You can copy our trades, but please remem­ber to review our Trad­ing Guide­lines. And con­sult a finan­cial plan­ner before mak­ing any deci­sions.
3. We don’t rec­om­mend that you add stocks which are already in our port­fo­lio.
4. If one of the stocks we add breach­es one of our sell con­di­tions, we will sell it from our port­fo­lio and you’ll get an email advis­ing of the trade.
5. If you come across any QAV ter­mi­nol­o­gy that you don’t under­stand, please review our ter­mi­nol­o­gy guide or just email us for clar­i­fi­ca­tion.

That’s it for today!

If we decide to buy or sell some­thing, we’ll let you know.

Got a ques­tion?
[email protected]

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