Five Juicy Years: Gold, Oil, and the Art of Saying No – QAV AU #918

QAV AU 918 CLUB VIDEO

[00:00:00]

Cameron: Wel­come back to QAV. TK, John Laws. Tony’s got a new mic. Lis­ten to this. Say hel­lo Tony.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hel­lo, Tony.

Cameron: Oh,

Tony Kynas­ton: World.

Cameron: sounds so good.

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, well this is the one that Phil Mus­ca tried to set me up for when I was in Syd­ney, but, um, but just

Cameron: Two years ago you’ve had that sit­ting on your

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. And we kept miss­ing like a dif­fer­ent piece of equip­ment. So I’ve

Cameron: Yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: them all ordered and installed.

Cameron: have, he should have giv­en you a check­list. Things that you need to do before you install the mic. Yeah. I’m talk­ing to Phil tomor­row. I’m doing a, an Amer­i­can show with him. No, we’re doing it Thurs­day. Um, Tony the ASX is head­ing for the longest los­ing streak since 2018, accord­ing to the Fin.

And that was a few days ago. And I just checked while you were answer­ing the door and it’s down again today. Dear me, Tony. Dear, dear me, 9 1 [00:01:00] 7 5. It was on the 16th of April. Here we are on the 5th of May. It’s down to 8 8 8 0. What do you make of that, Tony?

Tony Kynas­ton: You can’t make much of it. I mean, mar­kets are always gonna go up and down and,

Cameron: I,

Tony Kynas­ton: you know, a, a long win­ning streak has to have an end. And it’s not that, not that far below. I mean, come on it, we are

Cameron: you are nev­er gonna have a job.

Tony Kynas­ton: of,

Cameron: You’re nev­er gonna have a job in the main­stream media, Tony. If you can’t, if you can’t, you know, get with the pro­gram

Tony Kynas­ton: Dra­ma­tize cat­a­stro­phize

Cameron: Yeah. Just going, eh, eh, goes up, goes down. Who cares? There’s no, there’s no sto­ry in that, Tony.

Tony Kynas­ton: Do you, do you ever read, did you ever read the Wiz­ard when you were a kid?

Cameron: Oh yeah. That’s gone back. Yeah, we’re Blondie.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, I remem­ber. the Wiz­ard. There was a car­toon where he was com­men­tat­ing a foot­ball game, and he goes some­thing like, uh, okay, ladies and gen­tle­men, just, uh, [00:02:00] just wait for a minute while a dinosaur wan­ders onto the ground. And then the, um, his co com­men­ta­tor cov­ers the wiz­ard’s mic, and goes, that’s not how you do it. You say, oh my god, on the ground.

Cameron: Uh, yeah, good times. Um, so this is from the Fin Matt Bell, April 30th. Uh, ASX slumps to worst los­ing streak as they said, blah, blah, blah. The Aus­tralian share mar­ket, so this is April 30th. I mean, this is six days ago, five days ago, the Aus­tralian share mar­ket fell for an eighth straight ses­sion on Thurs­day as oil hit 126 US dol­lars a bar­rel on renewed con­cerns over the strait of or and an esca­la­tion in the Iran War.

That was before Iran start­ed shoot­ing mis­siles at US ships last night.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: yeah. So, I don’t know. It’s all crazy. Tony.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, I like

Cameron: I did,

Tony Kynas­ton: I think it was that arti­cle that had the quote that [00:03:00] said the um, two week Iran War, which is now in its eighth week.

Cameron: yeah, two days. I thought it was all over with declared vic­to­ry. I did my, um, uh, Mon­day newslet­ters, uh, on Mon­day, sur­pris­ing­ly enough, and. I was talk­ing about how, um, the, the All Ords was up 0.4% over the pre­vi­ous week, but when I went to do the Amer­i­can one, it was up like, uh, well and tru­ly, like 1% or 2% or some­thing for the week.

It was crazy.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

Cameron: The US mar­ket knows no bounds right now.

Tony Kynas­ton: quar­ter­ly num­bers come out last week.

Cameron: Yes. Well all of the com­pa­nies did. I was going through the news sto­ries and there’s just results after results after results. Um, yeah, it was up 1% last week ver­sus the Aus­tralian mar­ket up 0.4. So at least our mar­ket’s being a lit­tle bit more [00:04:00] hes­i­tant.

US mar­ket, you would not know. Um, well, I’ve got a bunch of sto­ries that I wan­na run through real­ly quick­ly today, Tony, so I can go to see Mor­tal Kom­bat. Uh.

Tony Kynas­ton: Do you want me to, do you want me to just keep you here for a bit longer

Cameron: Yeah, please. Yeah, yeah, please. Cop­per snaps five day decline on Chi­na man­u­fac­tur­ing expan­sion. Cop­per climbed in line with most indus­tri­al met­als after Chi­nese fac­to­ry activ­i­ty expand­ed despite dis­rup­tions to sup­ply chains and ris­ing input costs caused by the Iran War. Now, I was sur­prised by this ’cause I think the last time I heard Chi­na’s econ­o­my was col­laps­ing.

Tony, uh, don’t, don’t you remem­ber that?

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh yeah. Again, um, accord­ing to the main­stream media,

Cameron: It’s, it either going, it’s either going so bonkers, you can’t believe the Chi­nese gov­ern­men­t’s, uh, sta­tis­tics or it’s col­laps­ing. Yeah. Yeah. And it’s all, it’s [00:05:00] all doom and gloom from now on.

Tony Kynas­ton: I think the inter­est­ing sto­ry about cop­per though is that the big min­ers, the big iron ore min­ers like BHP, have piv­ot­ed towards cop­per. And I think the lat­est num­bers show that cop­per was for the first time their biggest min­er­al export. So they’re real­ly lean­ing in towards the elec­tri­fi­ca­tion going for­ward.

Cameron: Yeah, right. Well, when I did my, um, analy­sis over the week­end, cop­per was def­i­nite­ly a buy. I’m hav­ing a look at where oil is today.

Thought Chris­sy was bring­ing me in a smooth­ie then, but she just slipped some paper under my door. Might be a divorce. Uh, Brent crude 113.88 today. And, uh, what about WTI? WTI? Oh, it’s come back a bit. It’s a hun­dred and $104 40 [00:06:00] today. But still just absolute­ly bonkers. It’s dou­bled, almost dou­bled in the last cou­ple of months.

And, uh, we’ve got a sto­ry, well, I’ll be talk­ing about it on the US show, but, um, do you see Spir­it Air­lines has gone bank­rupt in the US large­ly due to oil prices dou­bling,

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm. Nev­er, I have nev­er, nev­er flown Spir­it. It it’s the Jet­star or worse

Cameron: yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: the US low cost car­ri­er.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: You

Cameron: Been around a long time.

Tony Kynas­ton: pay for every­thing else.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: Yeah. As opposed to the, you know, what you are used to fly­ing, where they, they, they pick you up and car­ry you onto the plane in a lit­tle, lit­tle seat and dust you with gold leaf before you sit down,

Tony Kynas­ton: They fly me to the air­port.

Cameron: pick you up in the limo. Um. This is from the Fin. Uh, in just 71 sec­onds, big Tech told us where [00:07:00] the AI boom goes. Next Wednes­day night’s num­bers arrived after a stun­ning ral­ly in which Wall Street has com­plete­ly shrugged off any poten­tial dam­age from the Iran War. Ener­gy shock and extent focused almost entire­ly on the momen­tum of the AI infra­struc­ture boom. Basi­cal­ly, it is com­put­er chip stocks and almost noth­ing else that have lift­ed the mar­ket from its wartime lows and back to record highs as investors bet that demand for AI chips can run for many years. Hav­ing said that, all of the com­pa­nies that we talk about on the US show

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

Cameron: are not AI chip stocks.

East­man Kodak that I talked about on the 23rd of March on the show is up 81.4% since then,

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: Pit­ney Bowes, 30th of March is up 40%. Com­mer­cial Vehi­cle Group talked about on the 6th of April is up 20% since then. Uh, Mur­phy Oil’s up 22% since we talked about ’em in March. Neigh­bor Indus­tries is up 33. Bred [00:08:00] Finan­cial’s up 18. Core Ener­gy Cor­po­ra­tion is up 56. Top Golf is up 34. Methanex is up 63. Seneca Foods is up 38. Zep Health is up 500% since we talked about ’em in July. Um, Sasol is up 178% since we talked about them in July. Unfor­tu­nate­ly, none of those were in my QAV port­fo­lios. I wish I’d been able to add all of these to the port­fo­lios.

Uh, so it’s not just AI stocks that are boom­ing over there. There’s lots of stuff that’s just going absolute­ly bonkers, but they’re, a lot of them are reg­u­lar, you know, I would say Buf­fett style, QAV style bor­ing stocks that just make things

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

Cameron: or dig stuff out the ground, you know?

Tony Kynas­ton: we see some the­mat­ics emerge after the fact. So there’s been some oil drillers, some frack­ers have entered into our watch­list in the last, uh, quar­ter or so. [00:09:00] And

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: and the com­pa­nies that ser­vice the oil indus­try are in there. There, there was, um, car­go ships in there for a while too. So, we don’t pick the theme before it hap­pens, but we see the theme after­wards.

And of course it’s the, um, rise in the oil prices hav­ing a, is shap­ing our port­fo­lio as well. But, uh, as you say, I mean some­thing like Seneca Foods, which I, from mem­o­ry was, uh, uh, frozen food man­u­fac­tur­er, uh, you would think that would be doing it tough with ris­ing oil prices. ’cause they’ve got to, you know, um, put the stuff in plas­tic bags and then they got­ta ship it in trucks. I would’ve thought that was, uh, would hurt their prof­itabil­i­ty. So it’s inter­est­ing.

Cameron: Price is going up. Do you remem­ber what Kodak’s big, uh, growth cor­ri­dor was?

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, from mem­o­ry it was licens­ing the, the brand for use by oth­er com­pa­nies.

Cameron: No, they were get­ting into, um, chem­i­cal, com­mer­cial, chem­i­cal pro­duc­tions pre­cur­sors to lots of advanced chem­i­cal stuff using their knowl­edge in [00:10:00] com­mer­cial, chem­i­cal, what­ev­er, chem­istry stuff. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: So I won­der if that’s, uh, part of the rea­son, you know, they, that their share price is going nuts. ’cause when, and it’s not film cam­eras.

We know they’re out­ta that game.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: Uh, and they’re doing Hol­ly­wood com­mer­cial stuff too, I remem­ber, but I doubt that’s it either. Any­way, so the Fin is say­ing it’s all com­put­er. Scot­t’s two things that could go wrong, but as the late great US investor, Char­lie Munger taught us smart investors should spend a great deal of time on what he called inver­sion.

Basi­cal­ly think­ing what could go wrong. Two obvi­ous answers stand out. He says two risks that keep bub­bling and uh. Pas­sive investors are still under risk. Pull­backs are like­ly to be shal­low accord­ing to one dude. And then he’s talk­ing about, um, two things that could go wrong. The first is the AI boom, as this col­umn has been bang­ing on about for the best part of a week.

Wall Street’s stun­ning run [00:11:00] since March 30th. I feel like there’s a joke in there some­where,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron: uh, has been almost entire­ly pow­ered by a very small group of ben­e­fi­cia­ries of AI spend­ing. The Philadel­phia Semi­con­duc­tor Index, the SOX index, SOX end­ed an incred­i­ble run of 18 straight win­ning days on Mon­day night, but the index is still up 44% over that peri­od.

Mean­while, the Index’s biggest mem­ber Nvidia surged a fur­ther 4% to a record high and is up a stag­ger­ing 30% in a month. That’s almost half as good as Kodak. Um, this surge has fur­ther entrenched Wall Street’s alliance on AI stocks. Uh, so yeah, that could go bad is what he’s say­ing. And then obvi­ous­ly the Iran thing too, the largest sup­ply shock in his­to­ry.

The com­par­a­tive­ly con­strained price response to the largest sup­ply shock in his­to­ry may also be lead­ing to over­con­fi­dence in Wash­ing­ton, that the costs are entire­ly man­age­able, espe­cial­ly [00:12:00] with abun­dant US pro­duc­tion. And yet, even if there is a grav­i­ty defy­ing break­through in nego­ti­a­tions, the recov­ery of Mid­dle East­ern pro­duc­tion will be extreme­ly pro­tract­ed, giv­en the dam­age to facil­i­ties and fields as well as freight and oth­er logis­tic bot­tle­necks.

The best case sce­nario, we’d see sig­nif­i­cant quan­ti­ties com­ing back in three to six months in a mod­er­ate dam­age sit­u­a­tion. But, uh, the mar­ket goes, you know, trundling on despite all of that.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. I, I think the inter­est­ing thing for me is that, is what will hap­pen when Ope­nAI tries to float, or whether it does get to a float.

Cameron: If, if, if Elon does­n’t crash the whole thing with his,

Tony Kynas­ton: pos­si­ble too.

Cameron: that’s going on at the moment. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. But, um, but yeah, I mean, it’s. I would’ve thought, and you, you’d know more than I, that Ope­nAI is prob­a­bly the most at risk out of all of the AI tools that I use. Um, it seems to have fall­en off my usage, um, list since Gem­i­ni [00:13:00] improved and since, um, Claude came along and those kinds of things.

So I won­der what, I mean, Ope­nAI, I think is pow­er­ing Copi­lot and maybe that’s what’s dri­ving it. But, uh, you know, it, it seems not to be win­ning any of the games. Does­n’t win search does­n’t win cod­ing, I just won­der how it will go when it floats, if it gets that far.

Cameron: Well, what hap­pens, and this has hap­pened for the last few years, is that they all, you know, they, they go, they, they all top each oth­er, so. Claude will do a release and it’ll be the best at every­thing. And then Gem­i­ni will do a release and it’ll be the best. And then Ope­nAI will do a release and it’ll be the best and they keep jump­ing each oth­er.

But I did see in the last cou­ple of days that Anthrop­ic the com­pa­ny behind Claude now has high­er mar­ket cap than Ope­nAI based on high­er val­u­a­tion and um, high­er rev­enue than Ope­nAI as well. Um, and Claude Code is gen­er­al­ly, I think, rec­og­nized now to be the ulti­mate [00:14:00] cod­ing, um, AI app. Oh my God. There’s a thing just came out.

Claude Design. So Tay­lor called me the oth­er day and said, mate, have you tried Claude Design yet? I said, no, no. He goes, oh, you got­ta give it a go. So I sat down yes­ter­day. And I, I gave it a screen­shot of one of my web­sites, the Cold War web­site, which, you know, I built, I don’t know, 10 years ago, has­n’t changed much.

Um, looks pret­ty basic. And I said, can you redesign this for me? 10 min­utes lat­er, it had built me a, you know, $50,000 web­site design. Um, you know, just the, the, the, the look of it, you know, then, and it said all this, this is two to four weeks for a cod­ing team to build. I said, what about Claude Code? It goes, oh, yeah, about one to two days.

I said, can you give me the pack­age to give to Claude Code? Yep, here it is, and here’s the prompt. So it gave me a whole bunch of files, like a zip of about a [00:15:00] dozen files, specs, which I dropped into Claude Code. I dropped it into Claude Code prob­a­bly 10 o’clock last night. Went to bed, woke up this morn­ing, sort of went back and forth with it for a cou­ple of hours.

It’s built, it’s, it’s com­plete­ly re it’s built a $50,000 web­site design in 12 hours from Claude Design through to Claude Code build­ing, migrat­ing my site. Haven’t launched it yet. I’m on, I’m doing it on the stag­ing site just to test every­thing, but pret­ty much done what would’ve cost me 50 grand if I’d gone out to a, a, you know, a full on web team and prob­a­bly tak­en him a month or two to deliv­er it.

It’s insane and absolute­ly, absolute­ly insane. I was watch­ing an inter­view with the, the guy who devel­oped Claude Code ear­li­er, and, um, he was say­ing, yeah, well, cod­ing’s, cod­ing’s done. Now cod­ing is, you know, we’ve fig­ured out cod­ing, cod­ing is solved, is the way that they put it. We’ve, AI has now solved cod­ing.

It can code any­thing pret­ty [00:16:00] much. And that was their goal. You know, if you can get AIs to code to a very high degree, it can then code every­thing else, right? You can build any, you can build a design pack­age now based on code, right?

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. so I, I have a, I

Cameron: Any­way.

Tony Kynas­ton: names, but I have, uh, a rel­a­tive who works for a large invest­ment bank, and he was lament­ing the fact that most of the, the coders weren’t cod­ing, that they could­n’t code, um, were los­ing their skills to AI.

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: but the inter­est­ing anec­dote was, he said some­thing hap­pened in Chi­na recent­ly where they blocked AI of some kind from the US. It may have been Claude or some­thing like that. But any­way, all the IT depart­ment had to decamp out of Hong Kong to a, to dif­fer­ent offices to be able to keep using AI, though that depend­ed on it,

Cameron: Right.

Tony Kynas­ton: which is inter­est­ing.

Cameron: Well, the Chi­nese AI are pret­ty good now too. They’re not quite as good, but [00:17:00] they’re pret­ty good. The lat­est ver­sion of DeepSeek ver­sion four I think it is, is uh, I’m hear­ing real­ly good, strong reports on its abil­i­ty to code as well, and at a frac­tion of the price of the oth­er ones.

Tony Kynas­ton: I think that’s gonna be the issue from, ’cause what I’m also pick­ing up from what I read is that there are com­pa­nies which are now being sur­prised by their, uh, their AI charges that what they’re pay­ing for tokens

Cameron: Hmm,

Tony Kynas­ton: and, and they’re kind of now going, look­ing a lot clos­er at the work that their staff are doing and mak­ing sure it’s actu­al­ly pro­duc­tive AI work.

Cameron: sure.

Tony Kynas­ton: like there’ll be an eco­nom­ic pres­sure con­strain­ing AI at the same time as it’s, it’s ramp­ing up. So it’ll be an inter­est­ing sort of dance, I think.

Cameron: Yeah. Until you fig­ure out okay, it’s doing the work of 10 employ­ees so I can get rid of them and replace ’em. Any­way, mov­ing right along. Uh, I know you’ve got some AI sto­ries to about your own, of your own to talk about lat­er.

Tony Kynas­ton: I should

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: at this stage. Yeah, I,

Cameron: Yeah, plug it in.

Tony Kynas­ton: I was gonna say, I cod­ed, I, I wrote some [00:18:00] code to, uh, add to the Bread­later so I can put my buy list, my down­load through it and see which stocks have got pos­i­tive sen­ti­ment. But real­ly, AI did it for me, uh, that saved a ton of work every week for me now.

Cameron: Fan­tas­tic. It took me, I spent years try­ing to write that and then with var­i­ous stages of AI and it like every six months, it just got infi­nite­ly eas­i­er to do.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. And now

Cameron: So

Tony Kynas­ton: must

Cameron: how does it, did you rewrite the Bread­later in Python or did you just get it to inter­face with the Google sheet?

Tony Kynas­ton: I just added a, an extra sheet which just sim­ply has two columns. The first col­umn is the list of stocks,

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: then, uh, the app in the App Script just goes through and picks the first stock, puts it in the Bread­later,

Cameron: Puts it in B two.

Tony Kynas­ton: the,

Cameron: Mm.

Tony Kynas­ton: like it gets the four sale out­puts and checks to see if the price is above all those.

And then it

Cameron: Mm-hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: and there’s a few kinks in it, like it times out after 20 or 30 stocks. But the [00:19:00] AI added some code to. able to pick up from where it left off.

Cameron: Mm.

Tony Kynas­ton: just rerun it, start it

Cameron: Mm-hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: it goes through. But

Cameron: Mm-hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: it does­n’t sort of five min­utes, what would take me an hour to do

Cameron: Mm-hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, it’s

Cameron: What did you use to do that? Was it Gem­i­ni

Tony Kynas­ton: Gem­i­ni.

Cameron: Claude? Yeah. Yeah. Amaz­ing stuff. Well done. Look at you. You were poo-poo­ing AI a cou­ple of years ago. Now you’re using it to save your­self time. Look at you.

Tony Kynas­ton: I think you’re just

Cameron: Mm.

Tony Kynas­ton: the curve. You’re about six months or 12 months ahead of me.

Cameron: Sto­ry of my life. Always ahead of peo­ple, except when it came to invest­ing. Greg Abel. Tony, uh, ran the Berk­shire AGM. Um, sig­nif­i­cant­ly few.

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah. I can’t call it Christ­mas in

Cameron: No.

Tony Kynas­ton: any­more, I don’t think.

Cameron: What is it? Hanukkah in May sort of down­grad­ed Christ­mas.

Tony Kynas­ton: it’s just the Berk­shire AGM now, I think.

Cameron: Yeah, right. Um, less peo­ple turned up. [00:20:00] Appar­ent­ly eight, uh, sev­er­al thou­sand of the approx­i­mate­ly 18,000 seats were emp­ty. And I’m sure, you know, I’m sure he does­n’t feel bad about that. He knows he’s not gonna be able to com­pare. War­ren was sit­ting in the front row and did a pre­re­cord­ed ques­tion. I watched War­ren’s lat­est inter­view with Becky on CNN or what­ev­er it is.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: It was a lot of waf­fle. Yeah, he is show­ing his age. He’s

Tony Kynas­ton: he?

Cameron: 90, 95. There was a lot of waf­fle, there was some good stuff in there, but it was 95% old waffly here. Drunk uncles just waf­fling on about how great Amer­i­ca is and.

Tony Kynas­ton: he seemed to, he seemed to shuf­fle through his sto­ries a lot, did­n’t he? Just shuf­fling along.

Cameron: Yeah, yeah, yeah. He was play­ing, what does Trump call it? The weave. He was doing the weave just sort of ran­dom­ly talk­ing about his great­est hits, you know?

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm. I thought so too. I, I did­n’t see it on the YouTube link you sent me. I have been lis­ten­ing to the pod­cast [00:21:00] of the whole AGM and it’s in there as

Cameron: Oh, right.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

Cameron: lis­ten, I’m not mak­ing fun of the great man. He’s 95. He can do what­ev­er the hell he wants.

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah, and I still got some take­aways out of it. My biggest take­away out of it was that he talked about his five juicy years,

Cameron: Yes,

Tony Kynas­ton: I thought was a good sum­ma­ry.

So he’s, even though he’d been invest­ing for 60 years through Berk­shire, uh, he said, we, I had five juicy years. And I thought, that’s exact­ly, you know, um, exact­ly a good sum­ma­ry of invest­ing. You have those five years, which pay for all the rest, but you don’t know when they’re gonna be, so you got­ta stay invest­ed.

Cameron: and that’s, I mean. Uh, I mean, I dun­no what he defines as juicy, but in the six or sev­en years we’ve been doing this, I’ve seen two, um, peri­ods now, which have been, you know, um, bumper, bumper years for us, and then cou­ple aver­age, and a cou­ple hor­ri­ble. But the two real­ly good peri­ods, one, which we’ve we’re still in, and the one before that was the, [00:22:00] the COVID bump, um, 2020, 2021.

Um, yeah, I, I, I, I can sort of see how that plays out, but it’s such a hard con­cept, I think, to sell to investors, par­tic­u­lar­ly if they start in the mid­dle of a shit­ty peri­od, like the peo­ple that start­ed in 2022. Um, it’s rough, you know, you go, well, you just got­ta, just got­ta stick with it until you get the good one.

And that’ll, that’ll make it all worth­while. But, you know, have faith, you know, that’s

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: it works. And when you’ve seen a cou­ple of them, it’s dif­fer­ent. You then you’re like, oh, okay. I get how this works. You know? Yeah. Right.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Yeah. No, it is a, it’s an inter­est­ing con­cept and it involves lots of patience, and I think that’s the mes­sage that War­ren was, was con­vey­ing is just be patient. You, you don’t swing at every, every bat you, at every ball. You, uh, you wait for the good years, and you’re not invest­ed when they come along, you miss out and you have to wait a long time again for anoth­er good one.

So,

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: [00:23:00] That’s, that’s the game

Cameron: And I think it was Greg Abel who, or, or maybe, um, the oth­er guy, um, who runs the insur­ance busi­ness now. One of them said. A one of them said, you know, you have to say no. And it’s hard when every­one else is say­ing yes and get­ting tak­en to Lon­don and going to the races and

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Going to Ascot. Yeah.

Cameron: Yeah. Every­one’s get­ting wined and dined and you’re the guy that just keeps say­ing no to every­thing.

Tony Kynas­ton: And isn’t that just the, again, that’s a char­ac­ter­is­tic of Berk­shire Hath­away, isn’t it? I mean, War­ren would some­times call Char­lie Dr. No, he said, I, we talk two or three times a day and like pitch five things and Char­lie would just say no, it was, yeah. And sounds like Abel’s the same. So that’s a, a key qual­i­ty, I guess.

And it’s a bit like us, like, you wan­na buy AI stocks? No. Do you want,

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: buy Bit­coin? No.

Cameron: No.

Tony Kynas­ton: Do you wan­na buy After­pay? No.

Cameron: Yeah. Yeah. [00:24:00] Well, uh, any­thing more you wan­na say about Berk­shire?

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. One more thing before we go. The oth­er thing which I took out of, uh, Abel’s, um, all the, the things he talked about. And, and the, the AGM real­ly has a dif­fer­ent fla­vor this year. It’s not, it’s not the folksy wis­dom of War­ren and Char­lie now it’s more sort of cor­po­rate speak. And there was, you know, lots of the CEOs from the oper­at­ing com­pa­nies got up and, and spoke about their busi­ness­es and it was all about peo­ple and cul­ture and and all that kind of stuff.

It was no longer about. Life type lessons that we used to get from War­ren and Char­lie. So it’s a dif­fer­ent feel and that’s okay. Um, but the, the oth­er take­away I got was that, uh, they’d been a net sell­er of stocks over the last three years. Berk­shire Hath­away, Apple. They’d been sell­ing down their Apple shares as well.

So I dun­no if that’s a reflec­tion of War­ren’s atti­tude. It was kind of couched with­in a, with­in the dis­cus­sion about the cash. They were, they had mount­ing up and they said, yeah, well if we’re sell­ing stocks, it’s gonna [00:25:00] mount up, and then we’ll have a big swing when the mar­ket turns. So,

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: but you know, what, what con­clu­sions can you draw that they, for the last three years, they thought things were over­val­ued, but does­n’t mean that they’ll rebal­ance next year or this year or in 10 years.

It’s, they’ll just keep as they see fit.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: And they’ve got, what, 380 bil­lion or some­thing?

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. US,

Cameron: it is

Tony Kynas­ton: some­thing like that.

Cameron: crazy,

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: uh, to do, do, to do. Well, UAE left OPEC Tony, who announced they’re gonna leave OPEC this week, and I was read­ing up on the impli­ca­tions of that and noticed that, um, they’ve already imple­ment­ed the Hashan pipeline that

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Not quite the way I thought they

Cameron: no.

Tony Kynas­ton: gulf to the oth­er gulf. Yeah.

Cameron: They go up the gulf

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: up the up the moun­tain, the, uh, Hab­shan-Fujairah oil pipeline, also known as the Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline or ADCOP, which sounds like an eight­ies movie I real­ly wan­na see, uh, is an oil pipeline in the Unit­ed Arab Emi­rates. It starts from the Hab­shan onshore field in Abu Dhabi and runs to the Ras al-Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: but, and they can move a lit­tle bit through that, but not as much as they can move by ship. What do you, uh, what do you make of them leav­ing the UAE? Have you, uh, read any good analy­sis? Got any good analy­sis on what that’s gonna mean for OPEC and the future of oil and oil prices?

Tony Kynas­ton: I did. I read, um, an arti­cle in Forbes about it and well as oth­er places. But the Forbes one was a good sum­ma­ry. Two things, uh, it should mean low­er oil prices going for­ward, but of course we’ve got­ta get through the cur­rent war with Iran first before that will hap­pen. But OPEC exists basi­cal­ly to keep the oil price, not nec­es­sar­i­ly at a high lev­el, but at a a, an even [00:27:00] lev­el so that they can, can max­i­mize their prof­its. Um. hav­ing to do, with­out hav­ing to stretch their vol­ume and, and find new resources and things like that. the UAE, I think was about the third biggest com­po­nent of OPEC. So it’s a major, major part­ner of OPEC leav­ing, uh, and will, that, that means they’ll be able to con­tin­ue to pump even if OPEC shuts down or, or con­straints to keep the oil price up.

So that’s gonna put pres­sure, down­ward pres­sure on the oil price in the future. but it’s also, I think, uh, um, an indi­ca­tion that the UAE isn’t as wor­ried about oil rev­enue as it has been, because the Forbes arti­cle point­ed out in par­tic­u­lar that they are mak­ing, I dun­no if that said more rev­enue or more mon­ey, but cer­tain­ly sig­nif­i­cant mon­ey now from their sov­er­eign wealth fund. And the UAE was tak­ing the point of view that they’re so invest­ed around [00:28:00] the world now it’s much bet­ter to have a. Inter­na­tion­al econ­o­my, which isn’t buffered by oil shocks. And so, uh, you know, they’ll keep the, the price of oil low­er or do what they can to keep the price of oil low­er, to keep the sov­er­eign wealth fund tick­ing over.

So I thought that was an inter­est­ing per­spec­tive.

Cameron: Uh, I, I read that they had a lot of oil that they could tap into that they could­n’t under OPEC’s pro­duc­tion guide­lines. And they’re gonna try and make as much mon­ey as they can out­ta that while the world is still buy­ing oil and before it goes too green.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep. No, that’s a good point.

Cameron: Any­way. Um, you know, I have seen in some con­ser­v­a­tive forums that, uh, it was Don­ald Trump’s great strat­e­gy, great genius of five D chess here that led to UAE leave OPEC destroy the world oil mar­kets. Um, so the UAE would leave OPEC.

Tony Kynas­ton: Well.

Cameron: they, they, they can join those dots some­how, but, uh,

Tony Kynas­ton: [00:29:00] Yeah, that’s inter­est­ing, isn’t it? You got­ta stop read­ing those con­ser­v­a­tive,

Cameron: no, I love it.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Good

Cameron: No, you got­ta, you, you got­ta read what,

Tony Kynas­ton: goes down,

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: hurt the US econ­o­my as well. suit the US con­sumer. But, know, the US is the biggest pro­duc­er of oil in the world now, so it’s gonna hurt their busi­ness econ­o­my and tax­es and things like that, busi­ness rev­enue.

So

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: if, if that real­ly was the strat­e­gy, I think it’s a bit self-defeat­ing. Um, I don’t, but I don’t think it was the strat­e­gy of Don­ald Trump to go into the Iran war to

Cameron: No, no. You don’t get it. Tony, he, he wants to hurt the US econ­o­my.

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, he is suc­ceed­ing. Well

Cameron: You just don’t under­stand the five D chess that he’s play­ing here, Tony with.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: Yeah. He’ll fig­ure it out. No, I love read­ing. I, I read the left, I read the right, I read it all and try and fig­ure out if any of it makes any sense. Usu­al­ly none of it makes [00:30:00] any sense to me.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: This made sense to me though. I love this sto­ry.

In Al Jazeera, we know how the US block­ade, Iran’s block­ade. Well, now Chi­na has sanc­tioned US sanc­tions.

Tony Kynas­ton: That’s, so that’s, that’s almost five D

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: So the US put sanc­tions on some Chi­nese oil refiner­ies because they were buy­ing Iran­ian oil, which had been sanc­tioned. So the US sanc­tioned these Chi­nese oil refiner­ies, and then the Chi­nese gov­ern­ment said, if any­one obeys the US sanc­tions, you’re in trou­ble with us. So they sanc­tioned the sanc­tions.

No, there are no sanc­tions and any­one who sanc­tions, any­one who goes along with the US sanc­tions is gonna get sanc­tioned. So every­one’s blockad­ing the block­ade and sanc­tion­ing the sanc­tion­ings, and it’s all fun and games.

Tony Kynas­ton: retreat­ing back to their [00:31:00] nation states. But the thought I had was I won­dered whether that would affect our oil sup­ply. ’cause I know Pen­ny Wong was over in Chi­na recent­ly in Japan and Asian places shoring up sup­ply for Aus­tralia. So some of it’s com­ing from Chi­na. I, I dun­no if it’s com­ing from, there­fore com­ing from Iran, that would be an inter­est­ing conun­drum for the Aus­tralian gov­ern­ment if they could be proved to be tak­ing ship­ments from Iran.

But yeah, um, may affect us in the end.

Cameron: And, and when do we get to the point where Chi­na just sanc­tions the US?

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, Cana­da, it’s the US is the biggest cus­tomer of Chi­na, isn’t it?

Cameron: Sure. It can. I mean, it would, it would take a hit.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: Yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: hit. Yeah.

Cameron: it’ll take a hit, but, sure. I don’t know, man. Uh, alright. Let’s talk about OML, Tony. Uh, I think Scott Mee­han, some­body sent me this year was Scott

Tony Kynas­ton: final­ly a stock in 45 after [00:32:00] 45 min­utes of talk­ing about

Cameron: World News.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: Um. Yes, Scott sent me this last week. Rivals Cir­cle, Pacif­ic Equi­ty Part­ners, 750 mil­lion. Ooh, media bid, Pacif­ic Equi­ty Part­ners, $750 mil­lion bid to buy. Ooh. Media risks. Fir­ing the start­ing gun on an auc­tion for the out­door media giant with three oth­er deep pock­et­ed suit­ors recent­ly hav­ing weighed offers.

Now, this annoys me no end because I’ve bought and sold OML,

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: think five times in the last cou­ple of years, and it’s, I think I’ve said this before too. It’s one of those, when­ev­er it, it’s on the top of my buy list I’m like, ah, God, not these bas­tards again, because I know that it’s nev­er gonna work out. Let’s see, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 parcels I’ve sold of OML over the years we’ve been doing this.

Tony Kynas­ton: you did­n’t buy 12 because it’s stocks ris­ing [00:33:00] at the moment

Cameron: Yeah, I think the last one I bought in May of 25 at a dol­lar 70. Sold it in August of 25 at a dol­lar 67. It was a three PTL sell, and, uh, what is it today? It is a dol­lar 24, so it’s, I’m glad I did sell it. When I did, I would­n’t have, uh, made any mon­ey out of it, but still,

Tony Kynas­ton: and,

hav­ing a look at the chart, it looks like it’s a Schro­ding­er to me. I don’t know if it’s changed today. When I was prep­ping for the show, it was above its sell line? Uh, no, it was above, what was it? Above both. I think. I can’t be right. Lemme just call it up

Cameron: yeah, no, it is, it’s below its sell line and above its buy line.

Tony Kynas­ton: its buy. Yeah.

Cameron: Yeah, yeah, [00:34:00] yeah. But obvi­ous­ly it’s, it’s come down a long way Since July, 2025, it was trad­ing about a dol­lar 80 and it’s come down to as low as 95 cents. So it halved over the course of nine months. But just anoth­er, you know, exam­ple of QAV stocks that,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

Cameron: oth­er peo­ple see as cheap as well.

Right.

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah. No, exact­ly. And it’s, I guess also on the back of. One of its big com­peti­tors was bought by Nine, the Nine Group Chan­nel Nine, I think it was. I think it was QML from mem­o­ry, anoth­er out­door adver­tis­er. Um, when I did the Pulled Pork on new media, I mean they were push­ing the dig­i­tal bill­boards that are now becom­ing more preva­lent where you can actu­al­ly change the ad that’s on the poster, so to speak, the dig­i­tal poster.

Cameron: Yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: think that’s what sort of, uh, peo­ple are look­ing at who are [00:35:00] now look­ing to invest in them so they can see quite a bit of run­way for growth in that space going for­ward.

Cameron: right. QML, uh, isn’t that like Sal­ly’s, uh, QML Queens­land Med­ical Lab­o­ra­to­ries, or is that just for those of us in Queens­land?

Tony Kynas­ton: Alright.

Cameron: I don’t know. I’m just, uh, scrolling through to see when OML was last on the buy list. March, 2027. Oh, that’s good.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh.

Cameron: must have a wrong date on a buy list some­where.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hey AI, he is get­ting bet­ter.

Cameron: yeah, in the future.

It was on our buy list. Let’s see, Jan­u­ary 26th still. Yeah. Oh, there you go. Uh, yeah. Jan­u­ary 21st of Jan­u­ary, 2026 was the last time I was on a buy list. So if you were brave enough to buy it in Jan­u­ary, 2026, you would not be [00:36:00] hap­py because it was a dol­lar 31, uh, dol­lar 30 on 21st of Jan­u­ary. Yeah. Came off.

You would­n’t still be buy­ing it unless you just don’t fol­low the rules. Uh, any­way, there you go. Um, MLG also in the news this week, Tony, uh, MLG to imple­ment board and exec­u­tive lead­er­ship changes to sup­port future growth. The key change, we’ll see MLG, founder Mur­ray Lay tran­si­tion from man­ag­ing direc­tor to exec­u­tive chair.

In this role, Mur­ray will focus exclu­sive­ly on high lev­el busi­ness devel­op­ment relat­ed trans­for­ma­tion and change ini­tia­tives and oth­er strate­gic pri­or­i­ties is deter­mined by the board. The, uh, cur­rent non-exec­u­tive chair, Anna Newl­ing, will assume the role of lead inde­pen­dent direc­tor. Mark Hat­field, who’s been act­ing chief exec­u­tive offi­cer, will become CEO on a full-time basis pri­or to being act­ing CEO, who was the Chief Oper­at­ing [00:37:00] Offi­cer, and, uh, I men­tioned MLG because they are, uh, reg­u­lar on our

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: buy list.

Tony Kynas­ton: Looks like it’s a Josephine at the moment and the shares are going down since the announce­ment, so maybe it was­n’t received that well. I thought, I thought it was a good announce­ment. I think it’s, uh, you know, it’s an own­er founder who’s still gonna be involved, but rec­og­niz­ing that they, they need to suc­ces­sion in place.

Cameron: Actu­al­ly, I just noticed that I put them in one of the light port­fo­lios back in Sep­tem­ber and they’re now a Rule one sell as of today.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: So, uh, just to notice if any­one out there is hold­ing MLG, you might wan­na keep an eye on that. Might want to get rid of it. J. Craig Ven­ter signed us to dis­cov­er the human genome dies at 79.

You would’ve fol­lowed his sto­ry, much like I have, I imag­ine over the last 30 years.

Tony Kynas­ton: Prob­a­bly not much like you, but, um, I’ve come across it.

Cameron: I, [00:38:00] oh, well, I remem­ber, I mean, when he cracked the human genome back in the day,

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: the, nineties, I think, or ear­ly two thou­sands.

Tony Kynas­ton: Back in the Clin­ton era, I remem­ber

Cameron: it was,

Tony Kynas­ton: of mon­ey into it.

Cameron: yeah, it was a big deal. And, um, you know, my friends and I, who were all tech nerds were, we thought that was it. The future was nailed. DNA had been fig­ured out. It was a big deal.

Tony Kynas­ton: And then

Cameron: And he’s a for­mer Mor­mon. I found out, raised a Mor­mon in Salt Lake City, Utah. It did­n’t, did­n’t stick around in the church, did­n’t last very long, but just inter­est­ing that a guy who was raised as a Mor­mon in Utah was the guy that cracked the human genome. But uh, yeah, he was sort of on the, like the cut­ting edge of using tech­nol­o­gy to sequence DNA and sad­ly died just as we’re about to cure all dis­eases, um, and give us all immor­tal­i­ty.

So there you go. But it makes me sad when these guys that are like on the [00:39:00] cut­ting edge of

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

Cameron: this kind of bio­log­i­cal sci­ence don’t live long enough to see the, see it come full, full tilt.

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah, it is. I agree.

Cameron: Okay.

Tony Kynas­ton: things will advance far enough to be able to dig up their bones and recre­ate them,

Cameron: Yeah, he was, he was like, back in the day, he was, uh, all, he was in Wired mag­a­zine. He was all over the place. It was, um, like for peo­ple that did­n’t fol­low that and going, who cares? It was amaz­ing tech­nol­o­gy basi­cal­ly. Not dis­sim­i­lar in many ways to how large lan­guage mod­els work in con­cept. His tech­nol­o­gy, as I recall it.

They just explod­ed, um, the DNA up into real­ly, real­ly tiny frag­ments and then used super­com­put­ers to fig­ure out how to stitch it back togeth­er again. And it turned out to be a much, much [00:40:00] faster and more effi­cient way of decod­ing DNA than the way that they had been doing it pre­vi­ous­ly. Uh, not dis­sim­i­lar to the tech­nol­o­gy that Google’s AlphaFold used to come up with.

The way that pro­teins fold a few years ago that won them the Nobel Prize for chem­istry or biol­o­gy, one of the two last year. Um, just using, you know, mas­sive lev­els of com­pu­ta­tion to fig­ure out how to stitch these things togeth­er in an appro­pri­ate way. So he was the, in many ways, one of the fore­fa­thers of that approach to super com­put­ing, uh, appli­ca­tions in biol­o­gy.

So any­way, that may be a lit­tle bit sad. Um, Philip emailed with some Pulled Pork sug­ges­tions. SPZ, CXZ and TIP, just the tip, Tony, that’s what he’s sug­gest­ing. Just the tip for, uh, Pulled Pork. You famil­iar with any of [00:41:00] these stocks? I did­n’t check. Are they on the,

Tony Kynas­ton: them all team

Cameron: but

Tony Kynas­ton: TIP. so hap­py to do those Pulled Porks. Thanks Philip. I did­n’t get the mes­sage in time to do one today, but I’ll um, I’ll do one next week.

Cameron: always good to have some, some sug­ges­tions. One less piece of think­ing Tony’s AI needs to do for him.

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, you’re talk­ing about Craig Ven­ter dying. I thought you were gonna talk about Rudy Giu­liani being, uh, admit­ted to hos­pi­tal on his last legs.

Cameron: My friend Rudy. Yeah, no, I did see that he’s, uh, got pneu­mo­nia, I think, and at his age and gen­er­al lev­el of health, I imag­ine that’s not a good, uh, prog­no­sis.

Tony Kynas­ton: hmm.

Cameron: Yeah, what a, I read, I read an arti­cle, so for peo­ple who dun­no, I actu­al­ly caught up with Rudy back in my cig­ar store days. He was in town, he was in Bris­bane doing some con­sult­ing work or speak­ing at some­thing and I got a phone call from a limo dri­ver who was dri­ving him.

Rudy had said, do you know [00:42:00] any­where we can get cig­ars? And the limo dri­ver, who was one of my cus­tomers said, yeah, I know a guy. So he calls me at sev­en o’clock at night and says, Hey, Rudy Giu­lian­i’s in town and he wants some cig­ars. Can you get some to his hotel? So I went to my shop, put togeth­er a box of cig­ars and went to Rudy’s Hotel and went to his room and sat out­side, uh, in the bal­cony and had a cig­ar with Rudy and a cou­ple of his guys from the secu­ri­ty con­sult­ing firm that he ran, had a chat.

And I was a big fan. And this is obvi­ous­ly years before Trump.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: Rudy’s involve­ment with Trump. But I’d read his mem­oirs that he wrote after, you know, the whole 9/11 thing and blah, blah, blah, which I kind of enjoyed back then. It was an inter­est­ing sto­ry and him tak­ing down John Got­ti and, uh, the Mafia and all that kin­da stuff, how he used the RICO laws to take down all of these mafia heads.

And, you know, he had a, an, an incred­i­ble career as a, as a pros­e­cu­tor and, uh, the attor­ney gen­er­al, I think he was for [00:43:00] one of the regions in New York, and then his lead­er­ship, you know, tak­ing lead­er­ship when George W. Bush dis­ap­peared down a rat hole dur­ing 9/11 and Rudy had to step in, like, what­ev­er you may think of the guy today, like, ha ha hav­ing, being the may­or of a city when you get hit with a ter­ror­ist attack like that, um, like an incred­i­bly dif­fi­cult.

Um, job to have to do like one of the most dif­fi­cult jobs, obvi­ous­ly to have to do. And I think by all accounts, he did a pret­ty good job of it any­way. But then I read a, I read an inter­view a year or so ago with I think his daugh­ter talk­ing about him post-Trump. Hey, it’s, uh, I thought it was green smooth­ie deliv­ery, but it’s not.

It’s just You wan­na put your, your hot pants on cam­era? Hot pants. What the fuck? What the fuck? Hey, uh,

Tony Kynas­ton: I can’t see it.

Cameron: uh, she walked in wear­ing like skin tight [00:44:00] yoga, gym pants. Um, what was that? Uh,

Tony Kynas­ton: no, no. It was a oh oh. Did­n’t get to see it.

Cameron: And she was, and, and he does­n’t get along with his daugh­ter, by the way. And she was, um, she was just talk­ing about how, how bad she felt for him, real­ly, that he had this, you know, amaz­ing career, amaz­ing life and then just threw it all away and just became a joke and a laugh­ing stock and an embar­rass­ment and, you know, what­ev­er.

So sad. End of a tra­jec­to­ry for

Tony Kynas­ton: was, was­n’t it?

Cameron: a guy like that. Well, he’s not dead yet, but any who? That’s it.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay.

Cameron: Hur­ry up. We need to get to after hours. I wan­na talk about Point Blank.

Tony Kynas­ton: Or, or Pay­back as the se, as the remake was called.

Cameron: Oh yeah, I haven’t seen that. And also, and the, as saw the angel I’ve been read­ing in the And the Ass Saw the Angel reread­ing it after we talked about Bun­ny Mon­roe.

Tony Kynas­ton: yep.

Cameron: Any­way, so what do you do? What do you, what else you got on your list of talk­ing things, Tony?

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, I think we’re pret­ty much through my, I just go all pulled pork. Lemme just

Cameron: All right.

Tony Kynas­ton: at my notes.

Cameron: I’m drink­ing apple cider vine­gar, Tony.

Tony Kynas­ton: oh, you haven’t fall­en for that, have you?

Cameron: It’s, um, well, I, I’ve got like a soda stream, car­bon­at­ed water with a splash of apple cider vine­gar in it, and it tastes like apple cider. It’s real­ly nice. It’s like

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay.

Cameron: apple cider, you know?

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay. Well, I thought the apple cider vine­gar,

Cameron: Well, I’m eat­ing apples.

Tony Kynas­ton: ben­e­fits have been debunked.

Cameron: Well, I’ve read up on that. I dun­no that they’re debunked, but I don’t think they’re bunked either. They’ve nei­ther been bunked nor debunked. Right. You know, it’s, I don’t think there’s enough research on it.

Tony Kynas­ton: So that’s a cost I can save.

Cameron: Yeah, that $1 a liter on apple cider vine, yeah, it’s, it’s gonna make all the dif­fer­ence to your bud­get, but it tastes good, sur­pris­ing­ly,

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay.

Cameron: in a bit of the soda water.

So any­way, and I’ve got my [00:46:00] Fuji apples. I’m gonna mute my micro­phone and crunch on an apple while you do your Pulled Pork.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay. Well I do have one more thing to talk about and it’s com­ing up to time, but the RBA’s meet­ing right now, uh, to con­sid­er a rate rise. Um, think most of the econ­o­mists are say­ing it’s a fore­gone con­clu­sion, but I’m not so sure. I think, I think they will raise rights, raise rates by 0.25 of a per­cent today.

Uh, ’cause infla­tion is get­ting above where they want it to be, even though it’s caused by, by fuel. We’re start­ing to get a bit of a wage price spi­ral. So wages are being increased because infla­tion’s up and infla­tion’s up because wages are get­ting increased. So it’s a, that’s some­thing they wan­na knock on their head. The inter­est­ing, uh, thing is though, is that, uh, last time they met it was a five four deci­sion to raise rates. So it, it’s, it’s a almost a hung vote, um, which the gov­er­nor will have to, um, split, but, um. You know, [00:47:00] it’s, if it’s, if it was five, four last time, um, and there’s a lot of peo­ple say­ing that, uh, if, if oil, the oil price comes down, infla­tion will come down.

Um, it’ll be an inter­est­ing at the RBA meet­ing today to, to see what they think of that. Uh, but, but also to the oth­er dimen­sion is it’s the bud­get next, next week, the fed­er­al bud­get, a week away. And there’s been a few leaks about changes to neg­a­tive gear­ing and cap­i­tal gains, tax dis­counts and things like that.

So I, I guess the RBA will be furi­ous­ly mod­el­ing whether they’ll have an impact on infla­tion or not, and what, if they raise rates now, whether they may have to change, you know, that deci­sion in the future. ’cause the gov­ern­ment starts to, um, help out. But hon­est, I can’t see the gov­ern­ment, um. Doing much to reduce infla­tion. So my, my, my 2 cents worth is that the RBA will raise rates today and they’ll, they won’t wan­na see a wage price spi­ral take hold because of the, uh, on Iran.

Cameron: [00:48:00] We will just wait while I jump over to Poly Mar­ket and put bets against a rate rise going up. ’cause you’ve been wrong like nine out­ta 10 times. So I’m gonna jump on that.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, So the oth­er thing I had to talk about was the ANZ results. Uh, so that’s a stock I hold and it’s, uh, been on and off the buy list quite a bit. Uh, and num­bers were good. In fact, they, big con­sen­sus, but the shares went down a lit­tle bit because, uh, the rev­enue growth was soft­en­ing the mar­ket did­n’t like that.

So, um, that was, I thought, an inter­est­ing result and an inter­est­ing reac­tion to the result. Uh, there was an analy­sis I thought, on the week­end. By Antho­ny McDon­ald about it. the num­bers were very, very good, par­tic­u­lar­ly for a bank. So cash prof­it was up 70% ver­sus the Sep­tem­ber half. it was 3% above mar­ket expec­ta­tions. Um. The, what they [00:49:00] call reserve return on tan­gi­ble equi­ty, what we would nor­mal­ly call ROE, but it’s a bit dif­fer­ent for banks any­way, that was up five per­cent­age points. Um, the real­ly impres­sive thing I think was the bank’s cost to income ratio went down 16%. So that’s one of the key met­rics as it’s often called the jaws of a bank.

The dif­fer­ence between its, um, income and its costs, kind of like the top line mar­gin. Uh, so it was impres­sive num­bers, um, all along. But uh, the mar­ket’s focus is kind of like going, oh yeah, we thought that was gonna hap­pen ’cause you’re cut­ting costs, but you got­ta do the sec­ond trick, which is to grow, uh, mar­ket share, grow, uh, top line while you’re cut­ting costs.

And that’s, that’s the next, I think, um, the next task for the new CEO to do. And, uh, we will wait and see what’s hap­pen­ing there. Give him some time to do it. But, um, inter­est­ing that, think prob­a­bly some of the best results I’ve seen for a bank for a while. Saw the share price go down a lit­tle bit. Um. So we’ll see what hap­pens there.

Cameron: [00:50:00] And what’s your trans­la­tion of that?

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, just the fact that the mar­ket’s, um, already baked in the cost cut­ting and it’s now look­ing for rev­enue growth,

Cameron: Right,

Tony Kynas­ton: to occur.

Cameron: right.

Tony Kynas­ton: if he can’t meet

Cameron: I.

Tony Kynas­ton: growth tar­get that he set for him­self, then yeah, the share price will decline again, I would’ve thought.

Cameron: Inter­est­ing. In our US show com­ing up, I’m doing, uh, Deutsche Bank, which is, um, Euro­pean banks are absolute­ly explod­ing right now, prof­itabil­i­ty wise for some rea­son, but yeah. Yeah, lots of cost cut­ting going on there too. But we’ll get into that in the next episode.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Good. Uh, so that’s, I think every­thing I had. Oh, one, one last thing I wan­na men­tion before I do a pulled pork is that you might just dou­ble check this for me, but there’s a stock that was on the buy list for me called BCC, and, uh, I think it’s Beam Com­mu­ni­ca­tions. And when I put it in the Ator, it, it, uh, looked like it plunged in the last cou­ple of days [00:51:00] when I looked in Stock Doc­tor, the graph looked okay.

So, some­times I know that stocks with a small stock share price can have prob­lems in the bread­loader, but just, uh, also won­dered if you were hav­ing that prob­lem too.

Cameron: If I look at the Yahoo ver­sion of the Ator, uh, it looks fine.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Okay.

Cameron: yeah, so the,

Tony Kynas­ton: financ­ing then.

Cameron: yeah, I think it is.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay. So if peo­ple are using the bread­loader and they see it’s a, it’s a fun­ny sort of graph. It looks like it’s a sell, just dou­ble check it in a dif­fer­ent source and I think it’ll be on the buy list. Oth­er­wise,

Cameron: I am just check­ing my buy list. Was it on my buy list? No, it

Tony Kynas­ton: was,

Cameron: was­n’t on my buy list. I will, uh, bring up my scor­ing sheet and see what hap­pened there.

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, while you do that, I’ll start my pulled pork on Kaiser Reef.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, [00:52:00] so it’s uh, Kaiser Reef, uh, ASX code, KAU, it’s a, now is a very prof­itable, uh, Aus­tralian gold min­er. Uh, it has a cou­ple of mines, has three one’s been moth­balled for the moment, but it oper­ates in, uh, Tas­ma­nia using the Hen­ty Gold Mine. And it also has a, a gold, uh, mine and dis­trict in Vic­to­ria called the Mal­don, M‑A-L-D-O‑N Project. And, uh, it, real­ly start­ed off, um, life, uh, list­ed, um, five or six years ago, but it start­ed off focus­ing on that area in Vic­to­ria, which has pro­duced gold now for over 200 years. Uh. In, in sort of the Bendi­go area between Bendi­go and Castle­maine, is where it start­ed, uh, life.

It also then expand­ed into, uh, anoth­er mine called the A1 mine, which was, um, is up near [00:53:00] Mans­field, also in Vic­to­ria. Uh, but that’s, that’s the one that’s now in care and main­te­nance. Um, that was put into care and main­te­nance in Sep­tem­ber, 2025, as it was declin­ing in its, um, pro­duc­tion. And this com­pa­ny’s pret­ty laser-like on its focus now to, uh, have, uh, gold pro­duc­ing assets. so yeah, it did have three. It still owns three mines, but it, uh, it’s oper­a­tional in two. the inter­est­ing thing is, um, I, I was amazed that, uh, there are still, there is still gold to be mined in that sort of Bendi­go area. ’cause that was where the gold rush was back in the 1850s, uh, kind. Launched Vic­to­ri­a’s eco­nom­ic pros­per­i­ty. And it also hap­pened in New South Wales too, the Bathurst area. And I guess that there are still some gold mines oper­at­ing in that area, so I should­n’t be sur­prised. But, um, you’d think after a cou­ple of hun­dred years if there was still gold in the area, it would’ve been found. But [00:54:00] any­way, um, they’ve named the com­pa­ny after one of the, reefs, uh, in the area. And for those peo­ple who don’t know, a, a reef is a term used main­ly in the south­ern hemi­sphere for, uh, a vein of gold bear­ing quartz. uh, the Kaiser reef was, is in that Bendi­go rough area or. Sort of with­in like a 30 k radius of, um, of Bendi­go or dis­tance from Bendi­go. Uh, and it does have the high grade quartz for­ma­tions that, um, nor­mal­ly pro­duce gold. And it has, in this case, for, uh, for this com­pa­ny. Kaiser Reef goes back to that 18, mid 18 hun­dreds type peri­od when there were a lot of Ger­man prospec­tors. And, uh, they would often give the, their, their ten­e­ments names like Kaiser, which is of course Ger­man for Emper­or. um, was kind of seen as a sign of the rel­a­tive impor­tance that they [00:55:00] thought they’d, uh, that they’d struck it big in a par­tic­u­lar reef, but also obvi­ous­ly reflect­ed the Ger­man her­itage of the prospec­tors.

Cameron: Okay. Hold on, hold on. Sor­ry. His­to­ry nerd. Uh, inter­jec­tion here. Kaiser is from what? Word? Thank you.

Tony Kynas­ton: or

Cameron: all.

Tony Kynas­ton: you pro­nounce it Cae­sar or, or Kaiser.

Cameron: Well, depend­ing on how nerdy I want to be. Yeah. Cae­sar, but the Romans would’ve pro­nounced it. ER or Kaiser. Yeah. Yeah. Kaiser.

Tony Kynas­ton: I just asked because I have a, oh, I had a Mab called, we pro­nounced it Zu, but some peo­ple pro­nounce it Kura Cae­sar with an A on the end of it. ’cause it

Cameron: Right.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: Yeah. Yeah. The Romans pro­nounced a C as a K as we were pro­nounced a K. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: Any­way, back to, sor­ry to inter­rupt. Just want­ed to get that in there. Bit of,

Tony Kynas­ton: Reef, K‑A-I-S-E‑R Reef.

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: Um, so they, uh, bought the Hen­ty Gold Mine in Tas­ma­nia in May of 2025. And, uh, it’s been pro­duc­ing, um, uh, [00:56:00] income for them and prof­it for them, and real­ly trans­formed the com­pa­ny from a small scale explor­er type com­pa­ny into a sig­nif­i­cant pro­duc­er. and, uh, the Hen­ty acqui­si­tion boost­ed Kaiser Reef’s annu­al out­put to over 30,000 of gold with the tar­get of reach­ing 50,000 ounces of gold per annum. the mine also came with estab­lished infra­struc­ture, which, uh. I guess the his­tor­i­cal cost was about a hun­dred mil­lion dol­lars, um, includ­ing a pro­cess­ing plant, and it would’ve been extreme­ly cost­ly and time con­sum­ing to build from scratch. And they also did­n’t pay a hun­dred mil­lion dol­lars for the acqui­si­tion, so it, it was a good deal for them from that point of view as well. but the, prob­a­bly the big­ger deal is that Hen­ty pro­vides the imme­di­ate cash flow need­ed to fund fur­ther explo­ration across the, uh, the gold fields in Vic­to­ria. Um. the Hen­ty acqui­si­tion also includ­ed a large under­ex­plored ten­e­ment, um, cov­er­ing some 25 kilo­me­ters called the Hen­ty [00:57:00] Fault in Tassie. So I guess a kind of dif­fer­ent name to a reef.

But, um, anoth­er ten­e­ment with, um, like­li­hood of, uh, more gold strikes. Inter­est­ing, uh, deal. Um, that was done with a com­pa­ny called Cat­a­lyst Met­als, and I think Cat­a­lyst may have been on our buy list in the past. Cam rings a bell. Any­way, uh, Cat­a­lyst Met­als, anoth­er min­ing com­pa­ny who now own, 19.99% of, uh, Kaiser Reef as part of the deal to acquire Hen­ty. Um, and I’ll talk about the, the deal mechan­ics, uh, when I talk about some of their lat­est results ’cause a few mov­ing parts there. Uh, the deal also allows Cat­a­lyst to part­ner with. Kaiser Reef on poten­tial joint ven­tures in the future, like, uh, expand­ing the, the pro­cess­ing plant in Vic­to­ria and also, uh, gives Kaiser the rights to process some of their main­land ore in, sor­ry, Cat­a­lyst, the right to process some of its main­land ore in [00:58:00] Kaiser’s, uh, pro­cess­ing plant in Vic­to­ria. Um, to quick­ly look at the his­to­ry of Kaiser Reef, uh, it was only list­ed on the stock exchange on the 27th of Feb­ru­ary, 2020, a gold explo­ration com­pa­ny. So it’s, it’s risen. Pret­ty quick­ly over the last, uh, near­ly well, six years or so. In Jan­u­ary, 2021, the com­pa­ny com­plet­ed, uh, an acqui­si­tion of a com­pa­ny called Cen­ten­ni­al Min­ing, and that gave it own­er­ship of the A1 Gold mine and the Mal­don Gold Field.

So the two gold mines, it still has, and it also, uh, gained access to own­er­ship of the Por­cu­pine Flat pro­cess­ing plant near the Mal­don Gold­field. they were up and run­ning pret­ty quick­ly. Uh, they went from an explor­er into a gold pro­duc­er using those, uh, mines. uh, they also used the, um, the flat pro­cess­ing facil­i­ty near Bendi­go and Castle­maine to process [00:59:00] ore from the Mans­field oper­a­tion as well. and then in May, 2025, so last year. acquired Hen­ty, um, Cat­a­lyst Met­als was the pri­or own­er of Hen­ty, and part of the deal includ­ed Cat­a­lyst keep­ing a stake in Kaiser. the only oth­er thing I could prob­a­bly report on of, um, of note in the last six years was that in Octo­ber last year, Kaiser announced that the CEO of the com­pa­ny, Jonathan Downs, has resigned as man­ag­ing direc­tor after five years. And, uh, dur­ing that time he, he trans­formed the com­pa­ny from an explor­er to a prof­itable gold pro­duc­er. and they pro­mot­ed from with­in to a, CEO called Brad, looks like it was a, um. Uh, noth­ing to wor­ry about from a red flag per­spec­tive. Uh, Downs has gone off to run anoth­er com­pa­ny called, I think it’s called Dun­das Min­er­als, and he’s on, sits on var­i­ous boards as well.

[01:00:00] So, he’s moved on and they pro­mot­ed from with­in, uh, the new CEO. Mr. Cus has, uh, 25 years of expe­ri­ence in the indus­try, includ­ing with North­ern Star, one of the big­ger gold pro­duc­ers in Aus­tralia. So that looks all kosher to me. at their results, they, they real­ly were trans­for­ma­tion­al, and I’m look­ing at the Decem­ber, 2025. Uh, half year results. So to give you an, an indi­ca­tion of how big the change has been, net prof­it after tax was $9 mil­lion and, uh, the year before they lost $6 mil­lion. Rev­enue was $93 mil­lion ver­sus $7.6 mil­lion for the year before, and there is now $43 mil­lion in cash at hand up from $25 mil­lion. So they are now high­ly prof­itable. Um, but there’s a few, as I said before, a few mov­ing parts. Uh, so Kaiser Reef pays Cat­a­lyst, some deferred [01:01:00] pay­ments as part of the deal, and they’re also, pay­ing off Cat­a­lyst for a trans­fer of what’s called an envi­ron­men­tal bond. So talked about this before in Pulled Porks, that if you’re a min­ing com­pa­ny in Aus­tralia, you often have to have a, a deposit with the gov­ern­ment to make sure that if you, or when you leave the mine, the the land is, uh, reme­di­at­ed back to how it was before you start­ed dig­ging. Uh, they’re also pay­ing a 5% roy­al­ty to the Tas­man­ian gov­ern­ment for the Hen­ty ore that they mine. And, uh, despite all those things, they’re, they have now paid down most of their debt. And they are going what’s called unhedged with the gold price. So they had var­i­ous, um, hedg­ing options in place to, to pro­tect their, uh, sales if the gold price declined.

But, um, they’ve now removed those. So, uh, that’s both good and bad. I mean, the gold price has come off from its peaks recent­ly, but it’s still pret­ty high. So it could go high­er from here or [01:02:00] it could go down, who knows? But they’re now unhedged. Um, I guess the oth­er thing to men­tion is that, uh, part of prob­a­bly the biggest part of the cap­i­tal, uh, to, to fund this deal was a, a cap­i­tal raise of some $30 mil­lion to acquire Hen­ty. that’s one of the, the risks, I guess, in being involved in a small min­ing stock that’s on the growth tra­jec­to­ry, is that they will raise [01:05:00] cap­i­tal from time to time. So be aware, the first, if you decide to invest in this com­pa­ny, the first, um, invest­ment may not be the last invest­ment if you decide to invest again, depend­ing on the, the, uh, mechan­ics of each of their offers.

Wait — I need to include the full tran­script. Let me redo this prop­er­ly from the Ormet sec­tion:

Um, I guess the oth­er thing to men­tion is that, uh, part of prob­a­bly the biggest part of the cap­i­tal, uh, to, to to fund this deal was a, a cap­i­tal raise of some $30 mil­lion to acquire Hen­ty. that’s one of the, the risks, I guess, in being involved in a small min­ing stock that’s on the growth tra­jec­to­ry, is that they will raise [01:05:00] cap­i­tal from times to time. So be aware, the first, if you decide to invest in this com­pa­ny, the first, um, invest­ment may not be the last invest­ment if you decide to invest again, depend­ing on the, the, uh, mechan­ics of each of their offers.

So there is a pay­ment of gold due to ca uh, the Cat­a­lyst because of the deal. Uh, that’s not, um, too [01:06:00] expen­sive though at the cur­rent gold prices, the, um, oblig­a­tions, the month­ly oblig­a­tions is worth a, about $175,000. So, yeah, I, I guess on a, on an annu­al basis, it’s rea­son­able. and also too, as I said before, the, the. over time for the trans­fer of the envi­ron­men­tal bond, which Cat­a­lyst had tak­en out for the mine, and it’s being paid back in 12 month­ly install­ments. Um, and the total is $3.9 mil­lion, which is, um, paid back over time. And the last thing that Cat­a­lyst gets, or the sec­ond last thing Cat­a­lyst gets, is a 0.5% roy­al­ty over any gold that’s pro­duced specif­i­cal­ly from the tar, what’s called the Dar­win tar­get zone, is an area of Hen­ty, um, that Kaiser believes has sig­nif­i­cant high grade poten­tial.

So they’re also get­ting a roy­al­ty. then the last thing is that they have a, um, it’s not a cash pay­ment, but, uh, Cat­a­lyst entered into a joint ven­ture [01:07:00] option with, um, sor­ry, Kaiser Reef entered into with Cat­a­lyst and, uh. That meant that Cat­a­lyst have the option to form a 50 50 joint ven­ture to expand and oper­ate the mold and pro­cess­ing plant in Vic­to­ria. Um, which is a good thing for Kaiser Reef, ’cause of the poten­tial­ly solves a future pro­cess­ing bot­tle­neck for their, uh, for their own assets. So, um, looks to be a, a decent, a pret­ty good deal, I think all round. there was dilu­tion because of the cap­i­tal raise and because of the share issues to, uh. Cat­a­lyst, but, um, they get the Hen­ty gold mine for what looks like to be, um, a very good price. Cou­ple of oth­er things to note about the, um, about the share reg­is­ter. So it’s not just Cat­a­lyst, it has a, a rea­son­able hold­ing. Uh, orig­i­nal­ly they issued 15% of stock or there­abouts to a com­pa­ny called Rag­nar Met­als. When I say orig­i­nal­ly it was, [01:08:00] um, in 2025 lead­ing up to the Hen­ty acqui­si­tion. Uh, and, uh, Rag­nar is a Swedish min­ing com­pa­ny and they were inter­est­ed in the A one mine. So they, uh, as part of the deal in terms of pur­chas­ing stock from, Kaiser Reef, they nego­ti­at­ed the 1.5% roy­al­ty over the out­put of the A one mine. How­ev­er, as I not­ed before, the A one mine was put into care and main­te­nance at the end of last year. So, Rag­nar have since sold down their share­hold­ing to be 5% of the com­pa­ny after the A one mine was put into care and main­te­nance, but they’re still on the reg­is­ter, as are two oth­er, large-ish, um, indi­vid­ual investors on the reg­is­ter. A chap by the name of of Tim­o­thy Paul Ham, uh, who is appar­ent­ly a triple Olympic water polo play­er for Aus­tralia turned investor, and he often does his invest­ments in min­ing com­pa­nies with a part­ner called Jack Net. Um, both [01:09:00] wa investors in min­ing com­pa­nies, and togeth­er they hold about 13% of the Kaiser Reef stock. if you add that up with Cat­a­lyst and Rag­nar, it means that about 40% of the stock is tied up, uh, with, uh, four share­hold­ers, which does put a bit of a squeeze on the free float. Uh. Of the stock that’s remain­ing. to look at the QAV num­bers, stock price, uh, for the analy­sis was 25 cents a share. is declin­ing, so this is one to watch. It’s, it’s declin­ing from its peak after the Hen­ty acqui­si­tion, but it’s still above its bylines. So it could be a falling knife as it comes back towards its sell lines, but I think it had ticked up slight­ly this month enough to put it on the buy list. And ques­tion for you, Cam.

Um, got, uh, from your buy list that US Gold is a buy, but there was no entry for the Aus­tralian gold chart, which I think my read­ing looked like a Josephine. So I just want­ed to get your take on [01:10:00] that.

Cameron: I stopped check­ing it because they were both run­ning in par­al­lel for so long.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay.

Cameron: it just, uh, and I think also the, uh, site that I’m using now, Trad­ing Eco­nom­ics just has the one I think. Um, but Trad­ing View has the Aus­tralian, um, yeah, Aus­tralian is def­i­nite­ly a Josephine,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, so that would be anoth­er thing to watch for this stock. And, um, you’d wan­na see that turn up unless

Cameron: well, hold on. The US one is a Josephine too, I think.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, is it? Okay. I, I think your spread­sheet yes­ter­day had gold gold­ers, a buy us gold­ers a buy.

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: um,

Cameron: No, I,

Tony Kynas­ton: it’s if they’re Josephines and we’re not

Cameron: yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: yet, but, uh, the gold price has been ris­ing, it’s prob­a­bly com­ing off its peak, but it may rise again.

So watch the gold price graphs before, uh, you make a deci­sion on this one. Um, and it is a [01:11:00] Josephine any­way, so it’s, it’s not nec­es­sar­i­ly a rush out and buy, but one to look at. Uh, ADT is small­ish at 730,000 per day, so it’s not too bad, but not, um, uh, won’t suit large investors. Uh, the com­pa­ny isn’t cov­ered by many ana­lysts, so there’s no con­sen­sus tar­get. I can’t score for things like growth over PE. give it an IV2. Uh, IV1 is below its share price, so we can’t score it for that. Uh, there’s no div­i­dend, we can’t score it for a div­i­dend yield. Um, both Stock Doc­tor and Stock­o­pe­dia were a bit luke­warm in terms of qual­i­ty. Stock Doc­tor finan­cial health is ear­ly warn­ing and the trend is steady, and I just want­ed to, uh, first of all high­light that.

But sec­ond­ly, I think, uh, giv­en the sort of. In vast improve­ment in prof­itabil­i­ty. For the half a Stock Doc­tor sees two halves and can pro­duce a, an annu­al num­ber, that’s bet­ter than, um, [01:12:00] look­ing at each half each of the last two halves and adding ’em togeth­er. Uh, which still gives you a neg­a­tive EPS I think.

Um, Stock Doc­tor will improve its health as time goes on. Cer­tain­ly by Sep­tem­ber when the next results are announced, I would to see an improve­ment. Stock­o­pe­dia uh, gives it a 72 for qual­i­ty and an F score out of five out of nine, so again, fair­ly mid­dling. and over­all stock rank is only 78 and Stock­o­pe­dia, so it’s not, uh, it’s, it’s okay, but it’s not high up their list. What’s dri­ving it for us is the PROPCAF, which is 3.82 times, so lots of cash flow com­ing in now, so that’s a good thing. IV1, as I said before, is, um, is show­ing up. Uh. In our num­bers, but it’s actu­al­ly a neg­a­tive, neg­a­tive 2 cents at the moment. And I think that’s because Stock Doc­tor, uh, at a, um, an earn­ings per share fig­ure is adding halves togeth­er to get a rolling 12 month and one half is prof­itable and one half was­n’t. as I said, I think [01:13:00] that will reverse in time. equi­ty per share is 13 cents and plus 30% is 17 cents. So both are well below the stock price of 25. So we can’t score it for that. Uh, no fore­cast growth can’t score it for that even though there are large expe­ri­enced share­hold­ers. the reg­is­ter, there’s no own­er, founder, and the board of direc­tors holds 2% of the com­pa­ny, so we can’t score it for own­er founder, increas­ing equi­ty was inter­est­ing.

It, uh, it scored increas­es for five out of six halves, but we need six. So even though it was a a pret­ty good run, we still can’t score it for that one. So over­all, the qual­i­ty score is, is low for us as well. Five out of 11 or 45%. Um, but like I said, I think that’s a bit of a, um. An under­state­ment at the moment ’cause of the way the Stock Doc­tor adds two halves togeth­er, uh, to give us a depressed score. And I think it’ll improve. Um, in Sep­tem­ber, the QAV score over­all is 0.12. So it’s, it’s down [01:14:00] towards the bot­tom of the buy list and it is a Josephine at the moment, so you can’t run out and buy it. So you don’t, you should­n’t run out and buy it, in my opin­ion. But, um, don’t take my word for it. Do your own analy­sis and have a look at it. Um, recent and oppor­tu­ni­ties, I think the unhedged gold book, uh, is both a risk and oppor­tu­ni­ty, and we’ve seen this now with a lot of com­pa­nies have, uh, got to the stage where they aren’t hedg­ing their, their gold books in the Aus­tralian min­ing scene. Uh, and that can go either way, but. What it does mean is that even because the gold price is high at the moment, even if it does go down a lit­tle bit, it’s still, they’re still get­ting spot prices, which are high­er than if they had hedged them. And, uh, they drop that, that kind of high gold prices drop­ping through to sig­nif­i­cant mar­gins for these gold pro­duc­ers and gold min­ers. So it’s a, it’s a good thing. I think over­all. I think there’s plen­ty of oppor­tu­ni­ties for this com­pa­ny. They’re still explor­ing and they’ve got cash­flow to explore and they hold ten­e­ments, uh, near exist­ing mines, which is [01:15:00] prob­a­bly the eas­i­est way to explore if you’re a gold min­er. So I think there’s pos­si­ble explo­ration upside for this com­pa­ny who knows about the gold price. Like I said, it’s the Josephine at the moment, but, uh, it has gone up dra­mat­i­cal­ly over the last prob­a­bly three or four years at least. Um, and who knows whether that will trend upwards or down­wards, but, um, it’s, it’s high at the moment, so. That’s a good thing for the mar­gins in these com­pa­nies any­way. and I think it’ll be inter­est­ing to see what Cat­a­lyst Min­er­als does. Um, it holds 19.99% of the com­pa­ny. it could lead to full acqui­si­tion, but it could also, um, lead to some oth­er oppor­tu­ni­ties, uh, which may play out as joint ven­tures instead. And one thing I’d look at for, in terms of the share­hold­er reg­is­ter is whether Cat­a­lyst Min­er­als uses the creep posi­tion to pick up an extra 3% every half to increase its share­hold­ing or not. That would be a, an indi­ca­tor as to what they think of the com­pa­ny. So that’s Kaiser Reef. Um, [01:16:00] there was­n’t, uh, much we had­n’t cov­ered to a Pulled Pork on, uh, this week.

That was a buy on the buy list. And uh, but this one was a Josephine and I thought I’d cov­er it ’cause it’d been on the buy list for a while.

Cameron: Thank you. TK Gold in the US is uh, Josephine. I con­firmed that BCC was­n’t on my buy list because they were under my ADT cut­off. They’re like a $14,000 ADT. Right.

Tony Kynas­ton: com­pa­ny. Yeah. Okay.

Cameron: If I stand up in a minute, it’s to take some muffins out of the oven for Chris­sy. She just texted me, she said, I have to go pick up Fox. Can you take muffins out of the oven?

I’m like, sure. I’m not doing any­thing. Yeah, yeah.

Uh,

Tony Kynas­ton: I thought she bought some muffins in when you’re talk­ing about yoga hot pants

Cameron: she showed me her muffins Yeah. When she came in. Yeah. Um, they were hot muffins too. Um, thank you Tony. Yeah. KAU don’t own them. Just checked. Have bought and sold them quite a few [01:17:00] times though over the years. Sur­pris­ing though, with the whole gold ramp up that they haven’t been, uh, one of our cute, one of the stocks in my port­fo­lio over the last cou­ple of years, unfor­tu­nate­ly.

Tony Kynas­ton: They’ve cer­tain­ly been on the buy list a num­ber of times.

Cameron: Yeah. But.

Tony Kynas­ton: come close to doing a Pulled Pork on them.

Cameron: Yeah. Um, you know, they had a good run for a while there, but they’re way down from where they were in, um, you know, March. Alright, after hours. Tony after hours. Um,

Tony Kynas­ton: So I, I noticed you sent me an invite. We’re gonna going to talk to Oliv­er Tobias again in the, uh, from the US

Cameron: Tobias Carlisle.

Tony Kynas­ton: oh, sor­ry. Tobias Carlisle. I’ve got the wrong name in there. Um, Tobias Carlisle, I got the wrong name in my notes. Um, but he’s released a new book called Sol­dier of For­tune, which I start­ed read­ing on the week­end and it’s pret­ty good. looks at com­bin­ing Sun Tzu’s Art of War with War­ren Buf­fet­t’s three [01:18:00] big trans­ac­tions and draw­ing par­al­lels between the two. And it’s good. I mean, it’s, uh, I, I guess we’ve heard the prin­ci­ple before. It’s, it’s, it’s at least as far as I’ve read in the book. Uh, Tobias is paint­ing the pic­ture that, uh, know, the first rule of mak­ing mon­ey is don’t lose mon­ey. And, uh, that’s been part of War­ren’s strat­e­gy over the years. And, uh, it’s played out in three big acqui­si­tions that Tobias looks at in the book. So it’s, it’s good to get an inside or a dif­fer­ent, take an ana­lyst take on those three large trans­ac­tions from Berk­shire Hath­away, which are very illus­tra­tive of War­ren’s think­ing on these kinds of things.

Cameron: Hmm. First World Fight Club is Don’t lose mon­ey. War­ren’s Fight Club.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: then, uh, Jen­ny and I watched Wuther­ing Heights the oth­er night. Have you seen that?

Cameron: The new one with Mar­got Rob­bie and a Lordie. No, I haven’t. I heard it got trashed though. Bad reviews. That’s what I heard from the [01:19:00] boys. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: give it a bad review. I was gonna rec­om­mend it.

Cameron: Oh, real­ly?

Tony Kynas­ton: at

Cameron: Okay.

Tony Kynas­ton: half it’s, it was a, I thought it was, the first half was sen­sa­tion­al, uh, and

Cameron: Right.

Tony Kynas­ton: melo­dra­mat­ic in the sec­ond half, which I guess you have to do to tie things up.

But, um,

Cameron: Isn’t it the def­i­n­i­tion of melo­dra­mat­ic Wuther­ing Heights? You look up melo­dra­mat­ic in the dic­tio­nary. It’s Wuther­ing Heights,

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, the sec­ond half any­way. And of course the, the movie does­n’t fol­low the text. Not that I’ve read the text, but I looked

Cameron: right?

Tony Kynas­ton: you know, peo­ple point­ed that out. Um, great. I mean, great act­ing. Mar­got Rob­bie, I think’s the gen­er­a­tional tal­ent. She’s fan­tas­tic. Um. The oth­er Aus­tralian actor, Jacob Elor­di was good. Mar­tin Clunes was the high­light for me. He’s, he’s becom­ing one of those great British char­ac­ter actors that does­n’t have the lead part, but has a great part in the movie. A bit like Trevor Howard used to be, or Patrick Cargill was

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: and sev­en­ties. He’s, he’s the high­light for me of the whole thing.

He plays, uh, Kathy’s father and it’s a great com­ic [01:20:00] turn in the movie, so that’s good. But sump­tu­ous pro­duc­tion val­ues, great sets. It set, set in the north­ern Eng­land, des­o­late, bleak coun­try with huge gran­ite moors, as, as part of the sets and it was filmed local­ly. Um, the inter­est­ing thing was. Did­n’t real­ize that the direc­tor was also the per­son who made Salt­burn, which is I think one of the best movies to come out in the last cou­ple of years. uh, I think she’s, cer­tain­ly got nine. She’s a good tal­ent. But, um, yeah, fan, I thought it was excep­tion­al­ly good until it got to the sort of tying up all the ends of

Cameron: Right,

Tony Kynas­ton: love and all that kind of stuff.

But, um, yeah, great sets, great pro­duc­tion val­ues. Great, uh, great cast.

Cameron: right. Hmm. Oh, keep an eye for her. I saw it pop up on Net­flix or some­thing this week.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: Well, I’ve been watch­ing, um, 1967 Lee Mar­vin film called [01:21:00] Point Blank, and you said it was remade as Pay­back.

Tony Kynas­ton: Cor­rect. The Mel Gib­son movie from

Cameron: Oh, I saw that. I, I have, I did see that when it came out, and I liked it, sur­pris­ing­ly at the time I was like, yes, not bad.

Tony Kynas­ton: When you put me onto, is it, is it Richard Stark, the

Cameron: Richard West­lake. Oh, Stark, yeah. Was his, uh, pen name. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. And then I real­ized that, that that was what Pay­back was based on.

Cameron: Right.

Tony Kynas­ton: nov­els? I think it

Cameron: Yes. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. So, uh, yeah. And, um, I quick­ly looked at the Wikipedia page for Point Blank. It’s a, syn­op­sis is the same as the Mel Gib­son movie.

Cameron: Well, I, the rea­son I watched it is I saw a, a YouTube of Jim Jar­musch talk­ing about it as the Great­est Noir. He said like, his favorite genre of film noir is film noir set in LA and he was talk­ing about Chi­na­town and that kin­da stuff. And he said, but the, [01:22:00] the best of the cat­e­go­ry of LA Noir films is Point Blank.

Lee Mar­vin direct­ed by John Boor­man

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: before he made Deliv­er­ance.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: the only movie he’d made before, this is a ver­sion like his ver­sion of a Hard Day’s Night, but made with the Dave Clark Five, I think,

Tony Kynas­ton: real­ly?

Cameron: I’ve nev­er heard of, but it was like a, you know, a, well, I’ve heard of the Dave Clark five, but this film that he made, it was sort of like, you know.

A car­bon copy of Hard Day’s Night. Yeah. And then the Mon­keys one. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: That, um, God, who, who made that Jack Nichol­son’s part­ner. Um, can’t remem­ber who, what his name was. Any­way, um, but it’s fan­tas­tic. It is so great. This, uh, Lee Mar­vin ver­sion. So it, it reminds me of Heat. I remem­ber the first time I saw Heat, the Michael Mann film.

You can take any frame from the film and you could put it on the [01:23:00] wall as a poster. Like every frame is just very, very care­ful­ly thought out and beau­ti­ful. Same thing. Very, very sort of weird edit­ing. Um, Lee Mar­vin is great. The whole cast is great. It’s very cold, it’s very bru­tal. Um, real­ly, real­ly enjoy­ing it.

Yeah. So, yeah. Good. I.

Tony Kynas­ton: I saw, I quick­ly looked up, looked it up when you said it through this morn­ing and I saw, um, an inter­view with, uh, John Boor­man

Cameron: Right.

Tony Kynas­ton: it how he said that, uh, it was his first big movie and been giv­en a script to rewrite, uh, ’cause the orig­i­nal script was­n’t liked by Lee Mar­vin con­vinced Lee Mar­vin to do it. And then Lee Mar­vin. Who I think was mak­ing the Dirty Dozen at the time, or just made it whilst was into Hol­ly­wood and says, uh, to the pro­duc­ers with John Boor­man present. He says, okay, so John’s gonna rewrite the script. Okay. And they, Hol­ly­wood pro­duc­ers say, yeah. He said, I’ve got com­plete con­trol over the script.[01:24:00]

Oh yeah, yeah. And I’ve got

Cameron: Wow.

Tony Kynas­ton: They go, yes, Lee, sure if you’ll do the movie. He goes, okay, I’ll do it. I now trans­fer those rights to John Boor­man. So John, John Boor­man got his first big Hol­ly­wood movie with, with final script con­trol that he’s writ­ing and final edit, which is very unusu­al.

Cameron: Well, that’s what Jamus was say­ing is that Lee Mar­vin, for what­ev­er rea­son, took this guy who was pret­ty much an unknown and just gave him com­plete. Faith and con­trol and,

Tony Kynas­ton: a meet­ing, ’cause, ’cause Boor­man flew across to Lon­don because the, uh, Mar­vin was mak­ing the Dirty Dozen and just had like a, a, an evening to go and talk about this. Uh, and met Boor­man.

Cameron: amaz­ing.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm,

Cameron: John Ver­non is also in it, who I rec­og­nize from Dirty Har­ry. I think he’s like the, the police chief

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: or the may­or. That’s right. Dirty Har­ry and Ang­ie Dick­in­son’s in it. Kind of a rel­a­tive­ly small role, but, um, John Ver­non’s great. Lee [01:25:00] Mar­v­in’s just great. Like, he’s just so cold and hard and,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: sort of six­ties Clint East­wood kind of way.

Right. But,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: high­ly rec­om­mend it.

Tony Kynas­ton: two oth­er things that Boor­man said, which I thought were inter­est­ing, was one

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: he want­ed a paired back bru­tal­ist type style for all the sets. So

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: were, they were film­ing, uh, on a, an air­port ter­mi­nal. you know, pas­sen­ger walk­way

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: uh, he said that just was­n’t paired back enough.

So they had to go and remove all the pop plants and all the fix­tures and just

Cameron: Right.

Tony Kynas­ton: bru­tal­ist style of, of set. And the oth­er thing he said was that, um, when Pay­back came out, they watched it and they all laughed and said they’ve used the orig­i­nal script that we tore up, we made Point Blank.

Cameron: Well, it’s got a 93% on, uh, Rot­ten Toma­toes, Point Blank. And, um. You know. Yeah, it’s just, it’s, yeah, just, I can’t believe I’d nev­er real­ly even heard of it before. Par­tic­u­lar­ly see­ing as I read [01:26:00] all of those books just a cou­ple of years ago and sort of looked into film ver­sions of them any­way, so that’s been good.

And uh, yeah, as I said to you ear­li­er, um, I went back and grabbed my copy of, and I saw the Angel Nick Cave’s first nov­el, not the Death of Bun­ny Mon­roe, but that one, which I read, I don’t know, 30 years ago when it first came out, haven’t read it since, decid­ed to get back into it. And I’m just lov­ing it.

It’s just fan­tas­tic. Like, I’d for­got­ten. I remem­ber enjoy­ing it and think­ing it was weird, but, uh, yeah, real­ly has aged well, and I’m kind of, kind of flab­ber­gast­ed at what a great writer he was and pos­si­bly still is, but, you know, it’s just, uh, fan­tas­tic. And it, you know, it must have been like in the, I don’t know, the late nineties, I think he wrote that.

So be. 26, 27, 30 years ago, some­thing like that. Yeah, he’s near­ly 70, 68 this year. Nick Cave.

Tony Kynas­ton: [01:27:00] Mm-hmm.

Cameron: he would’ve been in his late thir­ties I guess, when he wrote this. But, um, real­ly, real­ly, real­ly good. Real­ly good. Just hor­ri­ble but good, you know, hor­ri­ble about this weird Mor­mon esque, fun­da­men­tal­ist cult. And the mute child is born to alco­holic par­ents and an abu­sive moth­er and in some, you know, shack out in the deep south and, you know,

Tony Kynas­ton: Strange

Cameron: yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: it’s like a Nick Cave song, but turned into a book, you know, full of weird reli­gious sym­bol­ism and, uh, but yeah, no, real­ly good.

Alright, we’ve got­ta go ’cause I got­ta go see a movie.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay.

Cameron: an Amer­i­can show first. Thank you, TK.

Tony Kynas­ton: Thanks

Cameron: Have a good week every­one.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hap­py ASX. ASX.