Agro at TACO — QAV AU 910

QAV AU 910 Club

Cameron: [00:00:00] Wel­come back to QAV TK. This is episode 9 1 0. We’re record­ing this on the 10th of March, 2026. Before we get into, uh, every­thing going on in the world, RIP, Jamie Dunn, Bris­bane boy. Brought so much enter­tain­ment to, uh, so many of us over the, over the decades, going back to when I was a kid or a teenag­er at least.

Uh, and I, I nev­er real­ly caught any of his radio stuff. He’s at the, the, the pup­peteer behind agro for any­one who does­n’t know, but I’m sure every­one does. Passed away a cou­ple of days ago. Um, yeah, brought lots of joy. I, I believe he was on radio for years after Agro went off tv. But, uh, lots of joy to lots of peo­ple over lots of decades.

Uh, so not a, not a bad effort and fair­ly, fair­ly unique. I mean, I think, um, Conan used to have, uh, uh, some cig­ar [00:01:00] smok­ing dog on his show. Can’t remem­ber the name of it now. Uh, that was sim­i­lar. I dun­no if Agro was first or not, but yeah, that kind of, I mean, even was Aussie ostrich was­n’t like agro none, none of black­man’s.

Pup­pet char­ac­ters real­ly went as far as Agro did. Agro was in a lev­el of all of his own, was­n’t he?

Tony: He was brought a lot of adult view­ers to chil­dren’s pro­grams ’cause there was so much dou­ble enten­dre going on. Yeah,

Cameron: yeah, yeah. So, uh, tip our hat and speak­ing of agro, I bought Karun ener­gy yes­ter­day for the light port­fo­lio ’cause the oil price was up.

Look at it today, down 8% already this morn­ing. ’cause Trump appar­ent­ly came out overnight declared that the war’s basi­cal­ly almost over. So I texted my, my mate, my uh, Iran­ian friend from kung fu and I go, well appar­ent­ly it’s over now. Uh, how, how did that work out? Uh, the regime’s still in pow­er. The son [00:02:00] of junior is, uh, the new aya­tol­lah.

Tony: Can you imag­ine any­one else was ever, ever gonna put their hand up for that job?

Cameron: Uh, yeah, I think there were a cou­ple of con­tenders actu­al­ly. But, um, any­way.

Tony: Does it, does it come with its own Tar­get t‑shirt?

Cameron: Well, see that’s the thing. It, they don’t care. Like, I dun­no if you saw it last week, but it was after they killed Ka a last week, there was all these sto­ries I was see­ing about how the, uh, CIA and Mossad had infil­trat­ed the traf­fic cam­eras and were track­ing him and knew exact­ly where he was gonna be.

Yeah. He was at home wait­ing to be hit by a mis­sile where he’d

Tony: been there for a long time. Yeah.

Cameron: Yeah. He was ready to be mar­tyred for the cause It’s not, uh, rock­et sci­ence where he was gonna be, but they’ve had this whole sto­ry about, oh, you can’t hide from the CIA A and Mossad in your home, in your liv­ing room with a big sign out the front go.

I’m ready when you are [00:03:00] ready for my vir­gins. Um mm-hmm. Yeah. I mean, it, it, it, as I was say­ing, my Iran­ian friend was say­ing on the week­end, it’s a win-win for them. You know, they get killed by the infi­del. It’s a win. They’re mar­tyrs for the cause. Uh, they don’t get killed. They’re a win. It’s, it’s a no lose propo­si­tion when you believe in mar­tyr­dom.

It’s like Ray and I always used to say, but Alexan­der the Great when he was invad­ing coun­tries and he would, if he got sick of wait­ing for his sol­diers to climb over a wall, he would just do it him­self because it was a noose propo­si­tion. If he got killed on the oth­er end, they’d write epic poems about him, like they did Achilles, his hero.

And if he won, uh, it was all good. Unfor­tu­nate­ly, a few times he just got stabbed with a spear and spent six months recov­ery with a gut wound. But even then,

Tony: right.

Cameron: Con­sid­er

Tony: leg­end. That’s what hap­pens. You see the life. You see life in black and white terms.

Cameron: Yeah. It’s

Tony: the gray area in the pic­ture. Yeah.

Cameron: Well, yeah.

Any­way, so yeah. [00:04:00] Karun Ener­gy dropped 8% this morn­ing. And you know, look, I don’t think any of us believe any­thing Trump says, obvi­ous­ly, except for the Trump sup­port­ers. Um, but I I, it just seems to me that he tared this again, Trump says some­thing, mar­ket goes down, Trump says some­thing else. The mar­ket goes back up.

You can’t tell me that some­one’s not mak­ing arbi­trage mon­ey by know­ing what deci­sions he’s mak­ing in advance. Buy oil. Sell oil.

Tony: Yeah. Feed­ing

Cameron: him to me by gold. Sell gold Trump absolute­ly coin what­ev­er it is. He said he had a big chat, good chat with Vladimir Putin last night. He’s gonna ease some sanc­tions on unknown unspec­i­fied coun­tries.

He’s gonna be eas­ing some oil sanc­tions on unspec­i­fied coun­tries, and we’ll see how it goes. Any­way,

Tony: and Trump usu­al­ly deals with the last per­son he spoke to, so we can guess which coun­try he’s talk­ing about.

Cameron: Chand Clear. Today the US pres­i­dent seems to be look­ing for the [00:05:00] exit ramp from his war in the Mid­dle East.

Investors are relieved, but it’s too ear­ly for the all clear siren. Oil is in a bear mar­ket. Yes. You read that right? Less than a day after crude prices, lep more than 30% to about 120 US dol­lars. They’re back down to US. $82. Wow. After anoth­er wild day on mar­kets end­ed with US Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump say­ing he thinks the war in Iran is very com­plete.

Pret­ty much.

Oh. Oh my God.

Tony: How many times have we heard that though? Immi­gra­tion has con­tained, um, walls fin­ished

Cameron: except when it’s Iran­ian soc­cer play­ers in Aus­tralia, and then he’s offer­ing to give them asy­lum in the Unit­ed States.

Tony: Oh, I had­n’t seen that.

Cameron: You did­n’t hear that sto­ry?

Tony: No, I got the, I got the fact that there were five who had been giv­en a asy­lum in Aus­tralia this morn­ing.

Cameron: He start­ed tweet­ing on truth social in the mid­dle of the night last night that Albanese was com­mit­ting a human rights [00:06:00] vio­la­tion by forc­ing the Iran­ian wom­en’s soc­cer team to go back to Iran. Um, forc­ing Albanese to get on a phone call with him at like 2:00 AM to tell him that we were 48 hours into the process already of giv­ing the five that had request­ed Asy­lum.

Asy­lum, which had been signed at like 1:30 AM this morn­ing. Uh, and then Trump said, oh, okay. Appar­ent­ly he’s, he’s doing some­thing about it. But Trump did­n’t call him. He just start­ed truth social­ing about how Albo was doing a ter­ri­ble job of, and, and Trump appar­ent­ly said that if we did­n’t give them asy­lum, the Unit­ed States would give them asy­lum.

So when ICE isn’t kick­ing immi­grants out of the coun­try, Trump’s giv­ing them a front door into the coun­try any­way. Um, so the Iran thing, who knows what’s going on, but it’s cre­at­ed absolute chaos. Yeah, he did say we’re wav­ing cer­tain

Tony: That’s

Cameron: yes. Chaos. [00:07:00] Does he have to do this every time? It’s, it’s not Dr.

Evil. It’s not chaos. What’s the chaos line?

Tony: We don’t do that in chaos.

Cameron: Also,

Tony: we’re also epic the­o­ry and chaos.

Cameron: We’re also wav­ing cer­tain oil relat­ed sanc­tions to reduce prices. So we have sanc­tions on some coun­tries. We’re gonna take those sanc­tions off till this straight­ens out, and who knows, maybe we won’t have to put them on. Trump said, dur­ing a press con­fer­ence in Doral, there’ll be so much peace, but when the time comes, the US Navy and its part­ners will escort tankers through the strait if need­ed.

I hope it’s not going to be need­ed, but if it’s need­ed, we’ll escort them right through the added. I

Tony: don’t think that will hap­pen is my take. Because the biggest thing about those tankers and why they’re not going through the straits of her Mabb is the insur­ers dropped the insur­ance. They said you can, you can sail through the straits of her Mabb.

You, you get blown up. Well, it’s gonna pay you out. There’s no [00:08:00] insur­ance. So they stopped doing it. Trump

Cameron: said, Trump said he would back them. He would pro­vide the insur­ance. And if there’s

Tony: any­thing about Don­ald Trump, I haven’t, I heard he, I heard him say he’d take a take, he shep­herd them through. But like he also

Cameron: said he’d cov­er the insur­ance.

Tony: I think

Cameron: like, if there’s any­thing you can be sure about is if Don­ald Trump says he’s gonna be good for some­thing,

Tony: right.

Cameron: He’s, he may or may not be good.

Tony: Uh, can you imag­ine knock­ing on the door of Mabb Largo say­ing, uh, could you please pay up this insur­ance bill?

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony: For my whole tanker, please, Mr. Trump.

Cameron: Yeah. So Ccle, yes­ter­day morn­ing, pan­ic just hit the ASX. This could get ugly. The grow­ing ram­i­fi­ca­tions of the con­flict in Iran are now rush­ing through rich­ly val­ued and com­pla­cent mar­kets.

Aus­tralia just set the tone for a very nasty few days on glob­al mar­kets. After a week­end of grow­ing fear about the con­se­quences of spread­ing con­flict in Iran, investors move from con­cern into some­thing that feels a lot like pan­ic today. [00:09:00] Oil’s in a bear mar­ket. Yes. You read that and I like it must be fun being a jour­nal­ist right now.

It’s not like, oh yeah, you, uh, don’t have your work cut out for you. But again, from a QAV per­spec­tive, I did have to sell a bunch of things yes­ter­day. Mm-hmm. Um, um, I haven’t checked ’em today to see if I’m gonna start hop­ing You haven’t checked them for the No, I haven’t checked them. Yes­ter­day I had to sell ser­vice stream SSM, it bridged its three PTL, but we owned it in two light port­fo­lios that we had bought in Novem­ber 20, 23, 2 parcels.

They were both up 106 hun­dred and 8%. Mm-hmm. Um, I did­n’t check if there were any div­i­dends, but there prob­a­bly were. I had to sell Qan­tas, um mm-hmm. ’cause it was down 21% and was a Rule one cell. I had to sell MAF, it was a rule one cell down also down 21%. And LAU was a [00:10:00] three PTL cell, uh, down 11%. Uh, and I bought Karun Ener­gy, but as I said, now that’s down 8%.

I like the fact that we’ve got this rule in place, um, for our­selves that if we sug­gest some­thing as a buy, we don’t buy it for our per­son­al port­fo­lios for 24 hours because Karun Ener­gy was down 8% when I added it to my super port­fo­lio this morn­ing because I could­n’t add it yes­ter­day when I sold SSM from my super port­fo­lio.

Tony: How could you buy Karun Ener­gy today if it was down?

Cameron: Well, I bought it before I knew it was down. Oh, okay. I put, I had a note. Yeah, I had a reminder to, to buy it this morn­ing. I got up, I checked the ator.

Tony: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: Did­n’t show any­thing all good. So I bought it and then I put in the price and I was like, that feels cheap­er than it was yes­ter­day.

And I checked it and I was like, oh, oh well you know, you win some, you lose some [00:11:00] because usu­al­ly it’s up. And I, yes­ter­day I was like, oh, it’s gonna prob­a­bly be too expen­sive for me to buy tomor­row. But, uh, it was all good. Any­way.

Tony: That’s isn’t an inter­est­ing thing though. I mean, so I’m gonna do a pulled of pork on anoth­er com­pa­ny today as well.

Uh, Viva Ener­gy. ’cause there’s not much on the buy list to buy except for all com­pa­nies at the moment.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony: Um, but as I’m doing it, I’m think­ing to myself, and this is bef, I did it this morn­ing before the mar­ket opened, and I’m think­ing to myself, okay, all prices up. To have any effect on the bot­tom line or the, the, the share price of this com­pa­ny or any of the oth­er oil com­pa­nies.

It’s got­ta stay up for a long time. Has to flow through to rev­enues and prof­its. Yeah. But over a, over a sub­stan­tial peri­od. Oth­er­wise it’s, if it’s a short term ble, it does­n’t make much dif­fer­ence. It’s, yeah, yeah. It’s worth some­thing, but it’s not worth five years worth of increased mar­gins, for exam­ple.

That’s real. That’s point num­ber one. Point num­ber two is all the oil com­pa­nies go up, they all com­pete against each oth­er. The mar­gins are gonna get com­pet­ed down. So it’ll be, again, it’ll [00:12:00] be a short to medi­um term hit at best.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony: Um, and yet they’re all up 10% on one on one day’s trade. There’s got­ta be some­thing go else going on there.

Like, you know, poten­tial­ly some­one’s using them to hedge some­thing or, um, like they could­n’t buy the com­mod­i­ty so they’re buy­ing the stock or some­thing like that. But yeah, it’s just, I just thought this, this whole idea in the mar­ket at the moment of. Ready, fire, aim. It’s just, it’s amaz­ing to watch. And yeah, it’s prob­a­bly turn­ing out to be too short term in this case.

Cameron: I got an email this morn­ing from one of our old­est, well, not that he’s old, longest term QAV light mem­bers, Jason, who said, uh, he’s had to buy and sell Karun and Hori­zon too many times in the past. He’s been burnt from them too many times that he did­n’t want to buy them again and should he just wait? And I said, well look, [00:13:00] you know, I know how you feel ’cause I feel that way about sev­er­al stocks.

And I know what Tony would say is like, oh, you think you’re smarter than the sys­tem now, huh uh. I said, but don’t buy any­thing you don’t wan­na buy, obvi­ous­ly. But there’s noth­ing else to buy real­ly except oil stocks right now. ’cause every­thing’s down. But I went back and looked at, uh, my his­to­ry of buy­ing.

Karun and Hori­zon and yeah, I nor­mal­ly have to sell them When oil becomes a com­mod­i­ty sell, inevitably again, some­times they’ve become a rule one or a three point trend­line sell as well. But yeah, I haven’t had a good track record with either of them over the years either. They haven’t been a good invest­ments, but, um, what am I gonna do?

Sys­tem says buy, I shut up and buy.

Tony: Mm-hmm. Yeah, look, I agree. Um, you know, I had been mind­ing the idea of like putting a 24 hour grace peri­od before tak­ing action in case things are being moved around by AI bots [00:14:00] or momen­tum traders or what­ev­er. But um, yeah, I haven’t done any test­ing on that. So who knows?

Cameron: Speak­ing of AI bots and com­modi­ties. Morn­ing project this morn­ing, um, I final­ly cod­ed the com­mod­i­ty chart analy­sis.

Tony: Oh, real­ly? Well done.

Cameron: Crazy. I’ve been try­ing to do it for two years. You

Tony: is over a met­al?

Cameron: Uh, that’s an inside joke. Um, I, uh, yeah, I’ve been try­ing to do this for a cou­ple of years. Right. And it’s always been a chal­lenge ’cause I can’t get the, the prices like the, the no equiv­a­lent of Yahoo Finance real­ly for all the com­modi­ties we want. Mm-hmm. But Tay­lor’s been using Claude Code recent­ly and he said, just give it to Claude Code.

He did­n’t say gimme this. He said, gimme just start using Claude code. So this morn­ing I just gave it to Claude Code and said. Can you work this out? Here’s all my attempts at the past. Here’s what it should do. [00:15:00] Bang, fig­ured out how to

Tony: real­ly

Cameron: go into Stock Doc­tor or trad­ing view, or what­ev­er it is. Do a screen­shot of the chart.

Give the chart to the Claude API and then give it the rules for writ­ing a three point trend­line and say, tell me what this, tell me if this is a buy­er or sell or a Josephine. And, uh, yeah, it just does it.

Tony: Oh, wow. Fan­tas­tic.

Cameron: Just does a screen­shot and ana­lyzes the screen­shot. It’s like so sim­ple, real­ly. But I’ve been try­ing to do, you know, fig­ure out a way to do this for a long time.

So, yeah.

Tony: What does called code cost?

Cameron: Well, it’s a, there are dif­fer­ent lev­els of month­ly fees. I’m on the, I just signed up for Claude Pro. A week or so ago, which is their sort of first tier pay­ment. It’s like 30 bucks a month, but I keep hit­ting my lim­it. So I crash you, I you get a lim­it of usage per day and per week.

And I keep hit­ting it. Tay­lor’s on Claude Max, which is more like a hun­dred bucks us a month. [00:16:00] Okay. And he goes, he said, yeah, he has­n’t hit his lim­it yet, but he just, you know, like he’s cod­ing an app. He just cod­ed an entire iPhone app with it. He said it’s just insane­ly pow­er­ful and good. So I, I keep think­ing, okay, if I keep hit­ting my lim­it, I’ll just spend the a hun­dred bucks and keep it cod­ing 24 7, you know.

Tony: Wow. Yeah. He was telling me about the mate and I, you know. I did­n’t fol­low him for most of it, but what, what I did, what I did fol­low, which I thought was impres­sive, was it goes into Xero and pulls out and his emails and pulls out who he’s been talk­ing to, when their con­tract pay­ment is due, when their invoice should be sent, goes into Xero, gets the details and sends them an invoice, which I thought was fan­tas­tic.

And, and per­haps that’s behind a lot of these, um, sell offs in com­pa­nies like Xero because if, if Core can take what, like take their basic infra­struc­ture and then ramp it up at a lev­el that’s, that’s huge.

Cameron: And just, you [00:17:00] know, we, we are right on the doorstep of, Hey, build me an account­ing app for my busi­ness.

Mm-hmm. And it’ll just build one in a day. And you’ll have your own cus­tomized account­ing app, no fees, upgrade it when­ev­er you want, add fea­tures when­ev­er you want. We’re at this era where peo­ple and busi­ness­es will just be able to code their own solu­tions for stuff. So the whole mar­ket and, um, Nutel­la, what­ev­er his name is, um.

Head of Microsoft, Sachi, Nutel­la.

Tony: Nutel­la Nadel­la.

Cameron: Yeah. I just think Nutel­la, that’s how I remem­ber it. Okay. Sat­is­fy­ing Nutel­la. Um, he, he’s been say­ing this for like a year. Like the, the era of soft­ware is over. It’s just, it’s just a ques­tion of how long it’s got left in it. Right. But, um,

Tony: but even com­pa­nies like Xero have been their own worst ene­my.

I mean, I, I like Xero. I use Xero, but, and, um, I’ll, you know, [00:18:00] Rod­dy’s my accoun­tant and I’ll say to him, oh, can you put the bud­get in there so he can com­pare so he can track this busi­ness against bud­get? No, I can’t do that. And so Rod­dy said, I’ve been try­ing to hit zero to do that for ages. They won’t do it.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony: And he’s kind of worked out, there’s like a list some­where in zero of 10,000 things that peo­ple, the users want and they’re just not get­ting to it.

Cameron: Yeah. Fea­ture requests. Yeah. A friend of mine, uh, from kung fu just got a job at, um, MYOB, who’s a coder. He, uh, left, um, Atlass­ian and went to Mayo three

Tony: month, co

Cameron: three month con­tract.

Yeah. And he, he’s part of the AI team. Like their job is to fig­ure out how to inte­grate AI into myop, but I’m like, yeah, that’s like rear­rang­ing the deck chairs on the Titan­ic job real­ly, isn’t it? And um. You know, this whole thing about, oh, we’re gonna inte­grate ai. Yeah. Okay. So yeah, you and the, you and the ASX.

Good luck with that. Uh, any­way, back to, uh, sto­ries, uh, RBA con­cerns [00:19:00] real­ized. Tony. Mm-hmm. Infla­tion expec­ta­tions hit three year high. This came out just a cou­ple hours ago in the Fin con­sumer before the oil

Tony: price dropped.

Cameron: Con­sumer infla­tion expec­ta­tions have jumped to a three year high in response to soar­ing petrol prices from, and, you know, I’m, if there’s one thing I’m con­fi­dent of, Tony, is that petrol prices will be falling just as quick­ly as the oil pri No, I’m kid­ding.

Yeah. Just as, just as

Tony: quick­ly as the bank’s low­er inter­est rates.

Cameron: Yeah.

Uh, week­ly infla­tion expec­ta­tions lift­ed 0.8 of a per­cent­age point to 6.1%. The largest week­ly rise since the A z Roy Mor­gan Con­sumer Con­fi­dence Sur­vey began the mea­sure­ment in 2010. Con­sumer con­fi­dence fell 3.7 points to 73.4 the weak­est lev­el since July, 2023. Bul­lock expressed con­cern at the Aus­tralian Finan­cial Review Busi­ness Sum­mit last week that high­er oil and petrol prices could fuel the pub, fuel the pub­lic’s expec­ta­tions of high­er infla­tion, and become a [00:20:00] self-ful­fill­ing prophe­cy as prices and wages adjust high­er in response.

Well, we’ll see what they say tomor­row, and then when things change the day after that, we’ll see what they say. Uh, the day after that, like mak­ing light slight­ly. But it again, and I dun­no how many times I, I’m gonna say this, but prob­a­bly every show we ever do thank. You, we have, uh, QAV. Go

Tony: and say it. God.

Cameron: Well, that’s what I call you when, you know, when we’re not on air. Mm-hmm. Um, my Lord and Sav­ior, Tony Con­is­ton. Um, like with­out a, like, try­ing to nav­i­gate the absolute chaos of the mar­kets right now, if you did­n’t have a sys­tem that just said, shut up, do what I tell you mm-hmm. Would be nerve wrack­ing,

Tony: cor­rect?

Yep. And, you know, pri­or to the sys­tem, that’s exact­ly what it was. [00:21:00] There’d be a, there’d be some­thing in the Mid­dle East. There’d be a bomb cri­sis. There’d be, you know, bricks fault or what­ev­er, and you’d face this Mon­day. The roof’s falling in Tues­day, you’re build­ing anoth­er sto­ry. It’s like, it’s just, yeah.

It’s just so top­sy turvy and every­one jumps at shad­ows, and that’s just the wrong way to be an investor. I, I had a quote I put in, I should say a quote. I should­n’t say a quote. I made it up. It’s, I’m quot­ing myself. It’s as I always say.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony: As I always say, it struck me, like, just yes­ter­day I was in the gym and I’m, and I was lis­ten­ing to a pod­cast I’m invest­ing, and I, and you know, peo­ple were talk­ing about, uh, exits from the mar­ket at the moment, and this was yes­ter­day.

And I’m think­ing it’s, it’s not a prize fight. Like peo­ple go into the share mar­ket think­ing they’re gonna go 15 rounds with­out get­ting punched, and as soon as they cop one in the face, they go, oh, this is not for me. And they get out.

Cameron: Mm-hmm.

Tony: But it’s, it’s not that [00:22:00] it’s real­ly the roope, it’s how many hits can you take?

And you’re still there in 15 rounds.

Cameron: Wow. You sound like my seafood.

Tony: Mm.

Cameron: I mean, that’s exact­ly what spar­ring is like at kung fu. It’s like you’re gonna get hit, you’re gonna get hurt.

Tony: Yep.

Cameron: Get used to it. That’s part of fight­ing, right?

Tony: Yeah, exact­ly.

Cameron: But you get hit a few times and you go, okay, that was­n’t so bad.

Right. I, I, I just got punched in the mouth. I elbowed a guy in the mouth last week. Um, uh, but you know, you, you get hurt. You go, okay, well I lived through that. Uh, it’s okay. I keep fight­ing. Right?

Tony: Mm-hmm. And you might say to your­self, are there any rules I can put in place so I’d like get hit in the mouth again?

Cameron: Keep your guard up.

Tony: Yeah, exact­ly. So you improve this sys­tem. Yeah.

Cameron: Yeah. But like, and we talked about this with, um, Dave from new’s, uh, won­der­ful, won­der­ful email, uh, last week. Uh. He’s seen the cycle go up. He’s seen the cycle go down. [00:23:00] He’s seen the cycle come back up again. You see that enough times and you just know, okay, that’s how cycles work.

They go up, they go down, they go back up. It does­n’t mat­ter. It’s okay. You know, we will, we, we just trade through. So, um, yeah, uh, LNG sto­ry Trump’s attack on Iran could dri­ve up Aus­trali­a’s pow­er prices. Well, duh. Um, this was an arti­cle in the A, B, C from Sat­ur­day, the 7th of March, talk­ing about LNG. I did­n’t real­ize this though until I read the arti­cle.

Qatar. Pro­vides about 20% of the world’s liqui­fied nat­ur­al gas, putting its sec­ond in the world for gas exports behind the US and ahead of third placed Aus­tralia. Just like the oil it needs to pass through the strait of Orus, the thin stretch of water flanked by Iran to the north and the Arab states to the south.

It’s a crit­i­cal and vul­ner­a­ble choke [00:24:00] point, blah, blah, blah. So, um, LNG while LNG does­n’t account for all of the world’s gas con­sump­tion, as many sup­ply chains rely on pipelines, across bor­ders and even con­ti­nents, it is high­ly crit­i­cal for cer­tain mar­kets, espe­cial­ly in Asia. Some 83% of the gas shipped through the Strait in 2024 went to Asian mar­kets, accord­ing to esti­mates from the US Ener­gy Infor­ma­tion Admin­is­tra­tion with Chi­na, India, Japan, and Korea tak­ing the major­i­ty.

It also says Aus­trali­a’s East Coast gas fields were opened up to the export mar­ket from 2015, but struc­tur­al pol­i­cy flaws meant that Aus­tralia, one of the world’s largest gas exporters, was left fac­ing warn­ings of a gas short­age in high prices because the vast major­i­ty of Aus­tralian gas­es being export­ed.

So, uh, yeah, I guess we’re sell­ing it to Asia as well.

Tony: Espe­cial­ly now if Qatar can’t get through. I think it’s even a lit­tle bit worse than that. ’cause I [00:25:00] thought either in that arti­cle or some­where else I read that Qatar had actu­al­ly shut down. Its, its pro­duc­tion because it was at risk of being destroyed by Iran or one of the facil­i­ties had been hit by Iran.

So they shut off every­thing.

Cameron: Well, I

Tony: think it’s,

Cameron: they can’t ship it, so if you can’t ship it, you can’t. And they’ve run out­ta stor­age capac­i­ty,

Tony: shut down. Oh, so they’re shut­ting it down? Yeah. Okay.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony: Yeah. Right. So, and there’ll be lag times with restart­ing at too, I imag­ine. But that yeah, cre­ates a huge oppor­tu­ni­ty for San­tos and Wood­side who are export­ing from Aus­tralia.

They’ll be jack­ing their prices up ’cause they’re going into Asia as well. Um, so it’ll help them. And that’s prob­a­bly more of a sus­tain­able long-term trend affect­ing a share price than the oil prices on, on Karun or some­one like that. I would’ve thought.

Cameron: Uh, a cou­ple of, um. Sto­ries from QAV relat­ed stocks that popped up in my news. Tony, our old friend slash ene­mies, Fen­di, FND, pro­posed issue of secu­ri­ties. Um, [00:26:00] now the way that I read this is they’re issu­ing some options, but also 30, near­ly 36 mil­lion ordi­nary, ful­ly paid shares are being issued. And they cur­rent­ly only have about, I think 60, 70 mil­lion shares out­stand­ing.

Try­ing to find, I thought I had writ­ten that down some­where. Um,

Tony: do you still have find in one of the port­fo­lios? ’cause I think it’s been off our list for a while, has­n’t it?

Cameron: I, I think, yeah, I think we did sell it when they had,

Tony: yeah.

Cameron: Some alle­ga­tions of some­thing, some­thing and then some­thing else was going on and some num­bers did­n’t go, come in nice­ly or what­ev­er.

Yeah, no, I don’t, I don’t hold them.

Tony: I don’t real­ly fol­low up, but, um, it looks like they’ve done a cap­i­tal raise, which is why the new shares are being issued. Um, the cap­i­tal raise will have been to insti­tu­tion­al investors, so they often do an option rate at the [00:27:00] same time, which gives a retail investor a chance to also get in, um, and ben­e­fit from, uh, a cheap­er, you know, poten­tial cheap­er price than what the share price is.

Now I’m buy­ing into the cheap­er price. Uh, look, I start­ed to look at this and just thought, this is so detailed, but it looks like some, so we, dur­ing, when I did a pulled pork on them, the big ho great white hope for them was split­ting off part of their busi­ness and lis­ten­ing it sep­a­rate­ly on the Indi­an stock mar­ket, which I think might have been either their, their bank­ing divi­sion or their ATM divi­sion from mem­o­ry.

That’s still yet to hap­pen, but it’s get­ting clos­er. But it looks like, and again, I dun­no the detail some­body else is look­ing, is posi­tioned to take a stake in the, um, busi­ness that’s gonna get float­ed off. And uh, the cap­i­tal raise is meant to raise mon­ey to try and block that stack. And Findy had pre­sen­ta­tion say­ing that even though you’re being dilut­ed when we list on the [00:28:00] Indi­an Stock Exchange is gonna be a big deal and the dilu­tion on Findy will be just blown away by hav­ing a big­ger stake of the IPL list­ing some­thing, some­thing, some­thing.

So yeah, that’s what’s going on in a nut­shell.

Cameron: I bought them in May of 2024 at $3 22.

By Novem­ber, 2024, they were up to $7 50. Mm-hmm. I sold them in Octo­ber, 2025 at $2 56. Down 20% rule one sell and they’re now at 99 cents

and we make fun of Bit­coin. There you go. Ndi, the Bit­coin of Aus­tralian Finan­cial sales. Of

Tony: India. India.

Cameron: Well, yeah. So there you go. Um, the oth­er one that I, anoth­er one I’ve got is Genus [00:29:00] plus GNP. They came out with an announce­ment acqui­si­tion of rail train adds crit­i­cal scale and diver­si­fi­ca­tion to genus Rail busi­ness.

Reminds me of many years ago when Fox said, dad­dy, you’re a genius. I was like, oh, thanks Fox. Did

Tony: you say No. Genus genius plus,

Cameron: uh, genus. GMP. Oh no, they’ve been on and off the buy list. Um, I hold them, actu­al­ly. I bought them in Octo­ber and Novem­ber, 2024. Uh, round about $2 $52 60. They’re up 200 plus per­cent Wow.

Since then. And up anoth­er 5% today. I dun­no if that’s on the back of this announce­ment or not. When was this announce­ment? Uh, 4th of March, uh, week ago. Any­way, so, uh, good lit­tle, good lit­tle, uh. Hold­ing for us. Actu­al­ly, one of ’em is in the [00:30:00] port­fo­lio. One of ’em was a pos­si­ble buy for light stocks, but the first one, 14th of Novem­ber, I bought at $2 54.

It’s cur­rent­ly $7 96.

Tony: So you bought them at 2 54 in Novem­ber?

Cameron: 24.

Tony: Oh, 24, okay. 24. That makes more sense. Yeah.

So

Cameron: a year and six months, I guess.

Tony: And from mem­o­ry, they’re all about, uh, elec­tric­i­ty infra­struc­ture and, uh, com­mu­ni­ca­tions infra­struc­ture. And I think this com­pa­ny that they’re acquir­ing is, uh, has a lot of dif­fer­ent things, but it pro­vides, uh, pow­er line infra­struc­ture to rail­way net­works amongst what it does.

Cameron: They deliv­er over­head wiring solu­tions, rail main­te­nance and con­struc­tion track pro­tec­tion ser­vices, rail sig­nal­ing and elec­tri­cals rail sur­vey­ing, and the sup­ply and train­ing of rail per­son­nel to rail oper­a­tors and infra­struc­ture own­ers. Think some­body was get­ting paid for the num­ber of times they could get rail into a sin­gle sen­tence rail train and sub­sidiaries [00:31:00] gen­er­at­ed pro for­ma, nor­mal­ized rev­enue of 96 mil­lion in EBITDA of 16 mil­lion.

FY 25, how­ev­er, is expect­ed to have a weak­er FY 26 due to project delays. Uh, genus Plus, accord­ing to Stock doc­tor, they pro­vide pow­er and com­mu­ni­ca­tions infra­struc­ture ser­vices across Aus­tralia. The orga­ni­za­tion under­takes the design, con­struc­tion and main­te­nance of elec­tri­cal trans­mis­sion net­works, dis­tri­b­u­tion net­works, sub­sta­tions, and bat­tery sys­tems.

So elec­tric­i­ty, who would’ve thought that’d be a good busi­ness to be in right now? Every­one. Um,

Tony: espe­cial­ly if the coun­try keeps elec­tri­fy­ing. Yeah.

Cameron: Anoth­er announce­ment from our friends at Embark Ear­ly Edu­ca­tion EVO, they have announced a takeover bid for oth­er old friends of ours, May­field Child Care, MF Ft.

It’s an off [00:32:00] mar­ket takeover for ordi­nary shares closed at 7:00 PM on the 5th of March, 2026. ASX announce­ment released on the 9th of March, 2026. Um, so there was an error. Uh, yeah. But yeah, with some­thing that they issued accord­ing to this, uh, not a good sign. But yes, they’ve received valid accep­tances of, uh, enough shares to bring their total rel­e­vant inter­est to 48.58%.

What’s the cut­off for being able to do an acqui­si­tion? Is it like 50% or?

Tony: 50% gives you con­trol so you can, you can, um, stack the board. Uh, but no, it’s nor­mal­ly, well it depends on the type, but it’s nor­mal­ly like 75 or even 90 before you, 90 per­cent’s the next, um, thresh­old where you can get Com­pul­so­ri­ly acqui­si­tion, which means that you can acquire the remain­ing 10% with­out, um, uh, them agree­ing to it.