QAV AU 905 — Watering the Flowers

 

Cedric: [00:00:00] Cameron had micro­phone prob­lems this week, so apolo­gies in advance for miss­ing words and chop­pi­ness.

Cameron: QAV Aus­tralia, Tony, episode 9 0 5, time­stamp. 3rd of Feb­ru­ary, 2026. Kather­ine O’Hara died. Tony, are you a big Kather­ine O’Hara fan?

Tony Kynas­ton: Would­n’t say I was a big fan, but I, you know, know of her and like her, um, from that Sec­ond City TV days and you know that John Can­dy crew and Dan Aykroyd, all those Yeah.

Cameron: Nev­er watched Schit­t’s Creek.

Tony Kynas­ton: I don’t like Shit’s Creek.

Cameron: Uh,

too close to home.

Tony Kynas­ton: for me there was like the, the Good Sec­ond City TV peo­ple and the aver­age ones, and she was kind of bor­der­line for me,

Eugene Levy

and, and the guys who

Cameron: oh man.

Tony Kynas­ton: best in show on all those.

I kind of like, some­times I cringe when I watch those.

Cameron: Um, yeah, that’s the point. You’re sup­posed to cringe. That’s the whole idea of their com­e­dy. It’s cringe com­e­dy. Well, Chris­sy would stab you if she heard that she’s a [00:01:00] huge Shit’s Creek fan and Cather­ine O’Hara fan. It was a very sad day in our house. Oh, huge. We love Cather­ine O’Hara

Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Love her. Um, from Home Alone

on Through

Tony Kynas­ton: Moth­er of Fox in home alone.

Cameron: Oh, Fox. Yeah, exact­ly. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Uh,

Tony Kynas­ton: Kin did at home alone, or

Cameron: a lit­tle bit.

Tony Kynas­ton: seen

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: a year or so.

Cameron: He kind of acts like him too. Um. And which makes me, Joe Peshy. He’s always try­ing to hit me with ham­mers and throw ket­tles and boil­ing all over me and stuff. Well, Tony, look, I big show. I’ve got a mil­lion notes, uh, for this week. So let’s get into it.

Um, I’m gonna start with some port­fo­lio updates. Um, port­fo­lios are going nuts still, despite the fact that the mar­ket’s come back a bit in the last week. Most impres­sive return in the light port­fo­lio for the last [00:02:00] 30 days is Dura Tech, DUR, which I’m gonna like, this is just such a con­fir­ma­tion of what we talk about all the time.

So, we’ve owned DUR in a num­ber of port­fo­lios. This the old­est par­cel that I hold. I bought in Novem­ber, 2022 at 50 cents. Dura Tech is now $2 17, which means it’s up 330% in three years and it’s up 18% for the month. Last 30 days it’s up 18%. It’s already a triple bag­ger. Went up anoth­er 18% in the last 30 days.

And like if it had gone up 18%, just that was it for the last 30 days. It would’ve [00:03:00] been hap­py days. But this is on top of being a triple bag­ger. So, you know, we talk about, you know, water­ing your flow­ers, um, and not sell­ing an arbi­trary, you know, got­ta take some prof­it off the table kind of stuff ’cause you don’t know where you dura tech and hon­est­ly.

I know they’re kind of a con­trac­tor that is kind of involved in con­struc­tion and min­ing and stuff, but I know noth­ing about them. Real­ly. Real­ly. I know very lit­tle about the busi­ness. Yeah.

I know you’ve done a pulled pork on ’em I think at some point.

Tony Kynas­ton: did. And there’re they’re small a DT stock too, from mem­o­ry. Um, they’re involved in, I, I think from mem­o­ry con­struc­tion, but I think I had a bit to do with reme­di­a­tion work as well. But you know, a clas­sic case of why you should­n’t be Michael Jor­dan. If you look at their graph, which I’m doing at the moment, at one stage back in 2023 in Decem­ber, they were at 1 59, then the fol­low­ing [00:04:00] April, they were back to a dol­lar five. So you would’ve missed out on dou­bling your shares if you’d sold them at that stage.

Cameron: The light port­fo­lio group is up 36% ver­sus the index up 7.5%. So near­ly quin­tu­ple mar­ket for the last year.

Tony Kynas­ton: great news for our light sub­scribers. ’cause they, they did it tough at the start and they’ve hung on. They’re doing well now.

Cameron: That’s right. The ones that just start­ed in the last year are like, how easy is this? And as I keep say­ing, it won’t last, trust me. I was talk­ing to San­ti­no, I got­ta get San­ti­no back talk­ing to him. Um, ear­ly this morn­ing, he’s, uh, been teach­ing his kids invest­ing. He’s got a cou­ple of teenagers and he’s been, you know, sort of.

Got a big bit of butcher’s paper. He is like, what are your favorite com­pa­nies? What are your favorite prod­ucts? What do you use, what do you think’s real­ly great and why? And then he’s sort of help­ing them build port­fo­lios around that and, you know, paper [00:05:00] port­fo­lios, but think­ing about it in help­ing them break it down.

But, uh, I was telling him that it, uh, port­fo­lio’s done Quin­tu­ple mar­ket. And he’s like, that’s a, that’s incred­i­ble. A few more years of that. And I go, yeah, there won’t be a few more years of that. Well, they will, but they’ll be spread apart by four or five years, you know, you know,

Tony Kynas­ton: And the RBA meets in an hour’s time too, so it could all come crash­ing down tomor­row.

Cameron: to a halt very quick­ly.

Uh, one note on the light port­fo­lio. I did sell MTO this week. Motor­cy­cle Hold­ings became a three point trend line sell for rea­sons unknown. They haven’t report­ed yet. So I’m assum­ing some­body knows some­thing that we are not privy to about what those results are gonna be like.

Tony Kynas­ton: of a shame. I remem­ber doing the pulled pork on them and quite lik­ing them, so, uh, uh, I know they had a good runup, so it could just even be prof­it tak­ing, but who knows? We’ll wait for the num­bers and work it out.

Cameron: Well, what, I’ll tell you some­thing else that has dou­bled Tony is [00:06:00] Bit­coin. It has dou­bled in val­ue in price over the last five years.

Tony Kynas­ton: five years. Okay.

Cameron: Five years,

Tony Kynas­ton: 15%. yeah. Okay. I guess if, so, if you go back five years ago, I was, uh, trad­ing at about $50,000 Aus­tralia, and it’s now $113,000 Aus­tralian. It’s a lit­tle bit bet­ter than dou­ble, but uh, yeah, it’s come off a lot in the last, um, you know, six months Bit­coin. It’s real­ly.

in the paper on the week­end about Bit­coin. So is a com­pa­ny which allows peo­ple to store their wal­lets and trade bit­coins. They’re now offer­ing a rewards pro­gram, which pays peo­ple a per­cent­age, a low per­cent­age, um, for using Coin­base. So obvi­ous­ly they’ve got fat mar­gins and they can give some back as a reward. of course, banks are scream­ing in Amer­i­ca now because that [00:07:00] the reward, the yield on in reward points on Coin­base is more than bank yield, for deposit­ing your mon­ey with the banks. And so the banks are say­ing, Hey, it’s not a reward pro­gram. It’s a, it’s a earn­ings yield for deposit­ing into Coin­base and they’re want­i­ng to be reg­u­lat­ed.

And Coin­base is lob­by­ing hard to not have it reg­u­lat­ed, it’s anoth­er exam­ple of dis­in­ter­me­di­a­tion of the banks going on. And I’m not advo­cat­ing peo­ple to put mon­ey in Coin­base and get a bet­ter yield than putting it in the bank, but that’s just one of the fun facts going on with, um, Bit­coin at the moment.

Cameron: Well, a few dona­tions in the right place, and I’m sure they won’t have to wor­ry about that reg­u­la­tion. Tony

Tony Kynas­ton: that’s, that was the gist of the arti­cle. lob­by­ing that was being done by the founder of Coin­base.

Cameron: lob­by­ing.

Yeah.

Yeah,

yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Fin? So it must be the, the time when they release all of the dona­tions to polit­i­cal par­ties. And it’s the list of sub sus­pects who donate to polit­i­cal par­ties gen­er­al­ly. [00:08:00] Not quite even­ly on both sides, but, um, Richard Pratt and, uh, Ker­ry Stokes and peo­ple like that were donat­ing. Um, but the inter­est­ing thing is that the arti­cle points out that most of the mon­ey fly­ing into the coffs of both par­ties is now through lunch­es and din­ners. So, you know, $10,000 ahead with the Prime Min­is­ter or trea­sur­er or leader of the oppo­si­tion or who­ev­er, and that’s not cov­ered by the Dis­clo­sure Act.

So you don’t know how much is of that is going on behind the scenes, which I found inter­est­ing and regret­ful.

Cameron: Cor­rupt. Yeah. Well, um, two arti­cles I read in the Finan­cial Review this morn­ing, Tony, talk­ing about gold, uh, which I found fas­ci­nat­ing. Two opin­ion pieces, one by Jonathan Kerns, chief Econ­o­mist at Chal­lenger and Adjunct Fel­low at Mac­quar­ie Uni­ver­si­ty. Pre­vi­ous­ly held a range of senior roles at the Reserve Bank of Aus­tralia.

Wrote an arti­cle that was in the [00:09:00] Fin record. Gold

Record. Gold Sil­ver prices are based on real­i­ty. It’s basi­cal­ly a big debunk­ing of gold and sil­ver prices. Even though they’ve come back a bit, they’re still up a lot for the month, not, not to men­tion the last cou­ple of years. The sec­ond arti­cle in The Finan­cial Review by Chris Brick­ey, founder and Chief Exec­u­tive of Stock Spot and invest­ing app.

There’s no gold bub­ble. This is the start of a regime change. So dia­met­ri­cal­ly opposed arti­cles in the finan­cial review. Today, you can get every­thing you want from the finan­cial review. You can find an arti­cle sup­port­ing gold. You can find an arti­cle Debunk­ing Gold. Just take your choice. Pick, pick, pick whichev­er one makes you feel good.

Tony Kynas­ton: Gold’s been inter­est­ing. I can’t speak so much for sil­ver, which has had a huge run recent­ly, but gold in in par­tic­u­lar is inter­est­ing and it’s, it came off my, my gold min­ing stocks came off, five to 10% over the week­end of the appoint­ment of the, or the impend­ing appoint­ment and the appoint­ment of the [00:10:00] new fed chair in the us. has­n’t tak­en up his posi­tion yet. Um, and gold got sold off and I think the link­age is, is impor­tant to under­stand. And, um, basi­cal­ly that Trump wants the US dol­lar to be low­er than what it is now, and he’s there­fore bul­ly­ing the fed chair into low­er­ing the cash rate, which will low­er the US dol­lar is in sync as well.

So. Mon­ey flows to high dol­lar coun­tries because their bank yields are, are high­er or their bond yields are high­er. Those two things usu­al­ly march, um, in pret­ty close, uh, syn syn­chronic­i­ty. and, uh, so Don­ald Trump low­er­ing the dol­lar, uh, will mean that uh, the reserve banks around the world have been buy­ing gold and they have been, and the US dol­lar has been declin­ing and cen­tral banks have been buy­ing gold.

And they buy gold because they’ve got large bal­ance sheets of large­ly US bonds, US trea­suries, and they’re becom­ing worth, or they’re being val­ued [00:11:00] down as the US dol­lar declines. they have to buy gold to sort of, as a hedge to bol­ster their, um, their bal­ance sheet again. ’cause one day they’ll have to sell those, bonds when quan­ti­ta­tive eas­ing starts up again. So that’s the, even though there are oth­er rea­sons why the gold. price has been increas­ing. You know, it’s, it’s used in man­u­fac­tur­ing of and print­ed cir­cuits and things like that. and it’s, and wind­mills, elec­tric wind­mills and, and, and the rest. Um, and then it’s also become a bit of a, a cir­cu­lar argu­ment that peo­ple are buy­ing gold ’cause cen­tral banks are buy­ing gold and it’s going up. But that’s the rea­son, and the rea­son why it came off last week was because the, the fed chair appointee, um, is, been a hawk in the past. He thinks that, um, inter­est rates should be high­er than what they are, the last lit­tle while he’s been say­ing, oh no, no, no, no, they should be low­er. And now Trump’s appoint­ed him.

So it’s, um, the mar­ket’s kind of going, hang on, Trump, you said you’re gonna low­er inter­est rates, [00:12:00] but you’re appoint­ing this guy who wants to increase them. so the mar­ket’s gone. Okay, well if the inter­est rates aren’t gonna be cut as aggres­sive­ly as we thought, then um, the cen­tral banks will start sell­ing some goals and that will depress the price that they’re get­ting in ear­ly. Uh. I think over the week­end peo­ple have sort of cooled on that argu­ment that, Trump will prob­a­bly get his way. That inter­est rates are still still reflect­ed in the bond mar­ket as drop­ping, um, with two cuts this year at least. So they, they’re kind of warm­ing to the idea of the new Fed elect appointee still cut­ting inter­est rates, even though that flies in the face of what he said in the past.

And I guess that the mar­ket’s also under­stand­ing that a lot of peo­ple have said one thing before Trump and anoth­er thing get a job with Trump. So, uh, they’re prob­a­bly becom­ing a bit more com­fort­able with his appoint­ment.

Cameron: Well, it, uh, mat­ters. Not a jot real­ly to us.

You know, gold min­ers [00:13:00] go back­wards a bit. If they keep going back­wards, we sell ’em. Um, you know, we just trade it, but,

Tony Kynas­ton: because

Cameron: hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: had a

real­ly good run in their way, way above their cell lines. but

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: mean the gold price will prob­a­bly have to halve from where it is now before they start com­ing under pres­sure. ’cause their mar­gins are so fat at the moment, at

Cameron: Yeah. Uh, well, um, I’ve got more on that, but I can skip that. The Sell Amer­i­ca trade seems to be con­tin­u­ing. Got an arti­cle from the New York Times from, uh, a cou­ple of days ago. New invest­ment the­sis has spread through glob­al mar­kets at the start of 2026 as trad­ing strate­gies long built on the pri­ma­cy of the Unit­ed States.

Now up for a new approach sell Amer­i­ca. The sen­ti­ment start­ed to take hold in finan­cial cir­cles after the shock of sky high. Tar­iffs sent stocks and bonds into a tail­spin last April, but it has tak­en off recent­ly as the Trump admin­is­tra­tion has [00:14:00] pur­sued poli­cies like attacks on the fed­er­al reserve’s, inde­pen­dence, and threats of a new trade war uh, basi­cal­ly this guy’s say­ing that, um, the Xer trade is still going on, that it has­n’t abat­ed. Um, so I dun­no how that plays into any­thing, but, um, there seems to be

Tony Kynas­ton: I think

Cameron: changes foot.

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah, there is, and I think if the US dol­lar keeps drop­ping and the Aus­tralian dol­lar keeps ris­ing ’cause we’re touch­ing 70 cents the moment, where 12 months ago we were in the sort of mid six­ties, at the high­est, mid to low six­ties. it’s up more than 10% in Aus­tralia. But again, as, as our dol­lar ris­es, it will cool the econ­o­my here, which will solve the RBAs issue with infla­tion, but it will also mean there’ll be inflows of mon­ey, uh, into invest­ments here, which pay a high yield. Um, so. not a bad thing for us. Um. The, that’s prob­a­bly, that’s the first, that’s prob­a­bly the only thing I can think of that would, we would ben­e­fit from [00:15:00] that. Um, sell Amer­i­ca trade. The oth­er inter­est­ing thing is that, um, there are a lot of US trea­suries held around the world out­side of the US and I, I kind of had a, um, chat going with chat GPT on the week­end to say what hap­pens if they all sold at once? to me that’s, that was the biggest threat fac­ing the US with the Sell Amer­i­ca trade was every­body who holds US trea­suries, um, all lines up with Chi­na and just dumps them, would, um, cer­tain­ly crash the US mar­ket, poten­tial­ly put it in reces­sion. But, um, chat GPT thinks it’ll be a short term out­come and it would hurt the peo­ple sell­ing US trea­suries, which would be crash­ing as they tried to sell, so they get less for what they cur­rent­ly, um, are worth now. but yeah, it would cer­tain­ly dis­rupt the US econ­o­my. Um, I don’t think it’s gonna hap­pen, but I did won­der when, when the world would wake up to death, if they all lined up against the us they could even­tu­al­ly exert a lot more con­trol than they’re

now.

Cameron: Yeah,

look, I, I was think­ing about this when the trade wars began with the US and [00:16:00] Chi­na, um, when Trump came back into pow­er when they, they esca­lat­ed, did­n’t start when they esca­lat­ed. So a year ago, and you know, there is a ques­tion about tim­ing for these sorts of things and who could sur­vive that sort of apoc­a­lypse bet­ter.

US or Chi­na. Um, I’m think­ing Chi­na would prob­a­bly sur­vive it, uh, bet­ter than the US would, but who knows? I I, I also see a bunch of sto­ries float­ing around the last cou­ple of days about how Xi talk­ing about mak­ing the, the ee, the, um, glob­al Reserve cur­ren­cies push­ing hard­er for that. I think that’s inevitable as well.

It’s just a mat­ter of when, not if,

Tony Kynas­ton: Cer­tain­ly for half the world at least. I think that’s the first step is that the peo­ple who trade with Chi­na a lot, um, out­side of the US start doing con­tracts in Rebi. Yeah,

Cameron: um, [00:17:00] I, I read a. An arti­cle that Kevin Rudd wrote last week, uh, where he was basi­cal­ly trash­ing Chi­na, which I found inter­est­ing. ’cause I always thought he was sort of pro-Chi­na. Uh, when he was Prime Min­is­ter, he seemed to be Mr. pro-Chi­na. He speaks Can­tonese, I think, or Man­darin. Can’t remem­ber which one. And, uh, then he was bash­ing Chi­na as the biggest threat in the region on his way out of the, uh, ambas­sador­ship.

And then of course, the Epstein files came out

and he is all through them. It’s not just one or two. There’s, uh, at least half a dozen dif­fer­ent emails and men­tions about, oh yeah, Kevin Rud­d’s com­ing to din­ner. Kevin Rudd was at the par­ty last night. Kevin Rud­d’s here. Kevin Rud­d’s there. Kevin Rud­d’s every­where. Rudd Camp is deny­ing, nev­er even heard of Jef­frey [00:18:00] Epstein.

Tony Kynas­ton: gonna be care­ful what I said because he’s come out and said he’s gonna be very liti­gious. um, I, again, I asked Jack GPT about it ’cause I did­n’t have time to troll through the Epstein files look­ing for ref­er­ences. And, it said that, um, there was no direct evi­dence of a rela­tion­ship between Epstein and Rudd that Epstein often. Diarized the invite list and peo­ple did­n’t turn up to his func­tions or meet­ings with him, et cetera. So not to draw too much from the Epstein files men­tions of his name.

Cameron: Uh, yes, but there was also I think, uh, an, an ambas­sador from Nor­way or pres­i­dent of Prime Min­is­ter of Nor­way who said some­thing to Kevin about our mutu­al friend Epstein. Um, so yes, lots of, lots of indi­ca­tions in there that there’s more to the sto­ry than we’re aware of Anyw who, uh, mov­ing.

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, I would­n’t know, but the tim­ing I think’s inter­est­ing. I mean, you could, you could, I think the argu­men­t’s gen­er­al­ly accept­ed he’s mov­ing on ear­ly [00:19:00] because of his, uh, rat­ing with Don­ald Trump. I’ll put it that way. but yeah, it, he, he did move on just before the release of the Epstein files or this round of the Epstein files too, which

Cameron: Well, there’ve been a bunch of epstein fo dumps before this one. Um, but I dun­no if peo­ple who were gonna be named in this one got a bit of a warn­ing, Hey, you’re gonna be flagged in this next dump, so get ready for it. Bat­ten down the hatch­es Any­way, um, invest­ing

Tony Kynas­ton: There’s a cou­ple of rea­sons

Cameron: invest­ing’s over Tony. Any­way. I had to, I hate to break it to you.

Yeah, there’s a bit.

Tony Kynas­ton: thank good­ness. Well, I’ll

Cameron: There’s a, yeah. The one day a week you get to talk to me and you’re ready to dump me like that. Geez.

Tony Kynas­ton: I keep

Cameron: Why? Oh, just off air. Um, there’s a bet­ter way. There’s a quick­er way to make mon­ey, Tony. As it turns out, you just, [00:20:00] just sue the go Sue the US gov­ern­ment for $10 bil­lion and it’s easy mon­ey.

Don­ald Trump, the pres­i­dent of the Unit­ed States, is suing the US gov­ern­ment for $10 bil­lion.

Tony Kynas­ton: that’s prob­a­bly not gonna be a trade. A taco trade on that one. Let’s, I’d say if you’re on both sides of the nego­ti­a­tion, you might get an out­come.

Cameron: That is the best sto­ry of the week for me. The pres­i­dent of the Unit­ed States is suing the Unit­ed States gov­ern­ment for $10 bil­lion while he’s a sit­ting pres­i­dent, not after one year into his term. He’s suing the US gov­ern­ment for $10 bil­lion, suing the IRS. Uh, who runs the IRS? He does. So he’s the gov­ern­ment that he runs for $10 bil­lion in [00:21:00] dam­ages to his per­son­al rep­u­ta­tion.

Tony Kynas­ton: that’s a mod­est amount.

Cameron: Uh, appar­ent­ly he’s already added, accord­ing to some esti­mates, $4 bil­lion to his net worth since his sec­ond inau­gu­ra­tion. Now he’s

Tony Kynas­ton: 12

Cameron: for anoth­er 10.

Tony Kynas­ton: That’s what the pres­i­den­t’s worth these days. Is it $4 bil­lion a

Cameron: Oh, wow. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: one 1% of that is the Mela­nia movie. ’cause uh, did­n’t Jeff Bezos spend 4 mil­lion

Cameron: 40 mil­lion.

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

Cameron: Hey, lis­ten, I’ve got a bunch of new sto­ries that I wan­na run through quick­ly, so I’ve got this new, new script that’s just fill­ing up my inbox with new sto­ries. As we head into report­ing sea­son, see how many of these I can get through Before my eye mutes my mic. Uh, Grange Resources. GRR came out with their quar­ter­ly report for the last three [00:22:00] months.

Uh, high lev­el sounds pret­ty good. Uh, con­tin­ue to set a high bench­mark for safe­ty. That’s always good. Uh, high­er con­cen­tra­tion pro­duc­tion of the Sav­age Riv­er Oper­a­tions. Uh, pel­let sales are good. Low­er unit cash oper­at­ing cost for the quar­ter com­pared with the pre­vi­ous quar­ter sta­ble prices. Cap­i­tal expen­di­ture of approx­i­mate­ly 12.4 mil­lion.

Ca key cap­i­tal projects progress dur­ing the quar­ter, includ­ing replace­ment of dol­phin fend­ers on the dock.

Tony Kynas­ton: I read, I read the, the announce­ment when you sent it to me and it’s like, what the hell did they spend 12 mil­lion bucks on dol­phin fend­ers and some­thing else? It was­n’t

Cameron: Dol­phin fend­ers. Tony, you

Tony Kynas­ton: I assume they were dol­phin shaped fend­ers to, you know, when boats tie up, they have these lit­tle rub­ber, um, buffers on the wharf, pylon, so they don’t hurt [00:23:00] them­selves. But do you think it’s a, there’s some­thing on the dock to pre­vent dol­phins from swim­ming into the, pylons?

Cameron: Well, I looked up what?

Tony Kynas­ton: that’s why their health and safe­ty

Cameron: Yeah, they got, well, they’re actu­al dol­phins. They actu­al­ly have dol­phins, uh, tied

no flip­per. Uh, I wish I had a flip, a sound effect right now. That’d be good. Um, a dol­phin is a group of pil­ings array to, to serve var­i­ous­ly as a pro­tec­tive hard point along a dock in a water­way or along a shore as a means or point of sta­bi­liza­tion of a dock bridge, or sim­i­lar struc­ture as a moor­ing point.

And as a base for nav­i­ga­tion­al age typ­i­cal­ly, typ­i­cal­ly con­sists of a num­ber of piles dri­ven into the seabed or riverbed and con­nect­ed above the water lev­el to pro­vide a plat­form or fix­ing point. So I assume that’s [00:24:00] not real dol­phins, that’s what they’re doing Any­way, if you’re, uh, inter­est­ed in GRR, have a look at their report.

Bank of Queens­land’s has got a new CEO

Tony Kynas­ton: move on,

Cameron: Oh yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: just want­ed to, um, remind peo­ple I did a pulled pork on GRRI think last year. if they’re, if they’re wan­na know more, check that out. Because the big issue with GRR isn’t the fact that they’re mak­ing mon­ey with what they mine cur­rent­ly. It’s what, it’s how long that lasts for, because, uh, when I did the pulled pork, there’s, there’s two devel­op­ments on the hori­zon for GRR, nei­ther of which had any sort of sure­ty of tak­ing off. And if they don’t, the mine shuts in about a year’s time. So one was the cur­rent mine in Tas­ma­nia into, uh, an under­ground mind. And I do men­tion that in their, their quar­ter­ly announce­ment that they’re pro­gress­ing to fea­si­bil­i­ty stage on that. But, um, that’s, that’s, you know, just, that’s still a long ways from know­ing that the mine will con­tin­ue. And then they also have a, [00:25:00] um. Uh, an invest­ment in a, um, ore body in wa is still wait­ing for, uh, fund­ing for that too. So, if nei­ther of those two things hap­pen, then will go into wind down in about a year’s time. if either of them hap­pen, they, they’ll con­tin­ue on. That’s why if you look at the share price graph, it’s, it’s trad­ing at low’s from, from, um, you know, much, much low­er than its high point. If I just have a quick look at its high point was, uh, dol­lar 65 back in May, 2022 and its cur­rent price is 26 cents. So, um, I think, I think at least, um, big investors are just wait­ing to see what hap­pens with either of those two devel­op­ments before they put more mon­ey into it.

Cameron: Trad­ing at 25.5 accord­ing to my spread­sheet. And the three point trend line is actu­al­ly 25 cents. So, uh, it’s very close to its three point sell line.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. So good [00:26:00] results for what they’ve got

Cameron: I,

Tony Kynas­ton: to the future with Grange.

Cameron: well, speak­ing of look­ing to the future, rod Finch, what can you tell us about Rod Finch, the new CEO of Bank of Queens­land, Tony, with­out, uh, get­ting your­self in trou­ble?

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, I can’t, I can’t do either tell you any­thing about him or get into trou­ble ’cause I dun­no him. So, um, yeah.

Cameron: Right. Uh, well, he takes up the job of CEO, man­ag­ing Direc­tor of Bank of Queens­land from the 1st of March, 2026. It was announced. I won­der how the mar­ket re, re react­ed, re re re react­ed is the word that I’m look­ing for there to that news. Uh, let’s have a look. See how his ego is doing. Oh, it’s react­ed quite well.

Oh yeah. The mar­ket liked that. News. Share price went up from 6 79 to $6 92. Con­grat­u­la­tions to Rod. He’s well liked, obvi­ous­ly.

Tony Kynas­ton: [00:27:00] Yeah. And I think also too, um, the mar­ket may be reward­ing a bit of sta­bil­i­ty. ’cause Patrick Hal­loway, who, who was a very good, um, chair and, um, and good, uh, invest­ment banker had stepped in to run the bank, uh, when they, when they got rid of the, the last CEO there, but was­n’t real­ly seen as being a long-term, um, hold­er of that posi­tion.

So found some­one else. And, uh, the bank may well, um, sta­bi­lize now with a retail banker in the chair.

Cameron: Finch has pre­vi­ous­ly been Bo Q’s, chief Trans­for­ma­tion and Oper­a­tions Offi­cer since 2023. More than 20 years expe­ri­ence in the finan­cial ser­vices indus­try with a track record of stuff. Do I hold BOQ? I think I had to sell them. Do you, do you, uh, have a dis­claimer with BOQ that you need to make

Tony Kynas­ton: Yes. Um, well, I think our super fund has some, but any­way, Jen­ny still holds some from her days of being a

Cameron: right? She’s no longer on the [00:28:00] board.

Tony Kynas­ton: No, she, um, she fin­ished up after

Cameron: Right. Uh, okay. BHP has issued their quar­ter­ly activ­i­ties report, uh, oper­a­tional review, high­er lev­el, uh, strong oper­a­tional per­for­mance, and increased cop­per pro­duc­tion guid­ance, cap­i­tal­iz­ing on strong prices. So, it all sounds pos­i­tive. I haven’t read into the details, but if you’re inter­est­ed in BHP, have a look at that.

TER.

Mm-hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: Cop­per is the sto­ry at the moment with busi­ness­es, even though they’re iron ore min­ers. Uh, Rio is look­ing to merge with Glen­core to get a hold of a cou­ple of, uh, cop­per mines in South Amer­i­ca. There’s, been a his­to­ry of, uh, these big iron oil com­pa­nies merg­ing and tak­ing over and it’s nev­er worked. um, that’s one to watch with Rio, it’s not that our bias at the moment, some not too wor­ried about it, but if you own it, just stay [00:29:00] close to it and what you think of the deal. Um, but yeah, the mar­ket’s real­ly sort of start­ing to, um, rerate to the upside. Cop­per pro­duc­ers and these com­pa­nies both have a lit­tle bit of it, but they’re both also try­ing to it if they can.

Cameron: Well, uh, I think. TER. They’re coal, aren’t they? Yes. Coal sales. They’ve released their quar­ter­ly overview as well. Um, let’s see what the, uh, high lev­el is here. Pro­duc­tion and sales per­for­mance. Uh, look­ing good. Sarah Chair­man’s report here. No ther­mal coal prices were sta­ble dur­ing the quar­ter. Demand remained resilient.

Lada look­ing for­ward, seaborne ther­mal coal mar­kets are expect­ed to remain sup­port­ed by, but they by the ongo­ing role of coal [00:30:00] and elec­tric­i­ty gen­er­a­tion, par­tic­u­lar­ly in emerg­ing mar­kets, et cetera, et cetera. So, yeah, it sounds like a

Tony Kynas­ton: I have, I have as a

Cameron: real­ly.

Tony Kynas­ton: by the way. Yeah. And uh, it’s, again, it’s way down off. Its high. It did a big cap­i­tal rais­ing, um, recent­ly, and I think that that has hurt the

Cameron: Right. Well, they’re not on our, uh, not in our port­fo­lio that I can see any­way. Who else? A one m A1C mines came out with their quar­ter­ly report. Uh, let’s see what they have to say. Uh,

god damn, this is a long report. Lots of pret­ty pic­tures.

Tony Kynas­ton: good sign.

Cameron: gen­er­at­ed 11.5 mil­lion mine cash flow after cap­i­tal invest­ment of 14.1 mil­lion despite weath­er relat­ed dis­rup­tions to con­cen­trate sales. Good progress at Jeri­cho. Good progress at Eloise. Excep­tion­al widths and grades. [00:31:00] Hmm. Yeah, noth­ing real­ly jump­ing out at me is a great report here. My dev­il might be in the details, but if you’re inter­est­ed in day one m, have a look at that.

Who else has come out with some quar­ter­ly activ­i­ties? A Aris Resources. Oh, uh, Fleet­wood Fleet­wood Mac has a new CEO, uh, Ms. Andrea Pit­cock effec­tive yes­ter­day, the 2nd of Feb­ru­ary, 2026. Uh, she has held senior exec­u­tive roles span­ning strat­e­gy, oper­a­tions, com­mer­cial lead­er­ship, and major busi­ness turn­arounds at Rio Optus, Boral Fletch­er Build­ing CSR Pact Group, and most recent­ly on the onsite rental group.

Okay. Um, it was announced on the 30th of Jan­u­ary, and she start­ed on the 2nd of Feb­ru­ary. That’s pret­ty quick. It’s pret­ty pret­ty far.

Tony Kynas­ton: an act­ing CEO. They remem­ber they were the com­pa­ny [00:32:00] that, um, part­ed ways with its CEO for

Cameron: Yes.

Tony Kynas­ton: And then the, the chair stepped in for a while and now they’ve found a, a

Cameron: Hmm. All right. Well, I won­der how the mar­ket react­ed to that. Let’s have a look.

Not well. The share prices gone to. Its announce­ment came out. So may be relat­ed, may not be relat­ed. Can­not say

Tony Kynas­ton: micro­phone is, is a bit patchy as well. Not just cut­ting

Cameron: patchy.

Tony Kynas­ton: miss­ing, miss­ing a

Cameron: I’m gonna unplug it again.

Tony Kynas­ton: fun­ny. You, you went off cam­era and I could see your, your, um, desk was shak­ing. I sort of had pic­tures of basil, faulty going out­side and thrash­ing, thrash­ing things with a branch.

Cameron: Excuse me one moment. Um,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: I

showed. Fox, um, uh, [00:33:00] some­how I, I can’t remem­ber how we got, but I was say­ing to him the oth­er day when I was a boy and so I showed him the, uh, four York­shire­man sketch. He did­n’t find it as amus­ing as I, I did. Uh, I think so, yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Used to get up before, went to bed lick, rolled clean on

Cameron: And you tell the young folks of today that, and they won’t believe you. And the orig­i­nal, um, Tim­brook Tay­lor and Mar­ty Fel­man in it.

Any­who, um, where was IFWD? I was just check­ing to see if we still hold them in any if and we do not. So any­way, there you go. Who else have I got on my hit list? Uh, EDU have got an announce­ment out that they expect to deliv­er towards the top end of their FY 25 guid­ance.

Um hum. You did a pulled pork on [00:34:00] Hum. Recent­ly. They came out with an announce­ment last Tues­day. Must have been when we were talk­ing about them. I think they’ve received an appli­ca­tion from ACAT Invest­ments

Tony Kynas­ton: Annoy­ing

Cameron: rela­tion to the affairs of the HUM group. This is actu­al­ly a media release from the Aus­tralian gov­ern­ment takeovers pan­el.

Did you catch up on this? Did you read this

Tony Kynas­ton: I did, and it was an arti­cle on the Fin last week too. So the, the com­pa­ny that’s rais­ing that, uh, objec­tion at the takeovers pan­el, which is fair­ly, a fair­ly unique way of try­ing to, uh, to reverse the shares that were bought by, uh, the.

Cameron: Mr. Aber­crom­bie?

Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: Aber­crom­bie. Yeah. So he just quick refresh, he, he announced that Cred­it Corp had, uh, approached them with a takeover offer, same day, start­ed buy­ing shares in Hum, bought shares for a cou­ple of days after that.

Um, noth­ing wrong with that ’cause he start­ed buy­ing after the announce­ment was made [00:35:00] to the mar­ket. But, um, uh, called Anton, tell, tell you Faroh amongst oth­ers from a com­pa­ny, know if it’s still going, but it was, was called Investors Mutu­al, one of the pow­er­hous­es that pio­neered man­age­ment in Aus­tralia.

And Anton tell you, tell you Faroh was cer­tain­ly well known, but he’s retired now. But he’s the per­son who’s launched the takeover pan­el’s And it’s to re reverse the, sor­ry to, uh, uh, take away the vot­ing rights of the shares pur­chased by Aber­crom­bie at that time, after the cred­it court. Takeover was announced because, I dun­no if he’s work­ing with our friends at Collin Street Asset Man­age­ment, but, uh, they and anoth­er firm have asked for an EGM com­ing up soon, next cou­ple of weeks. And, um, does­n’t want Aber­crom­bie to have the extra vot­ing pow­er at that meet­ing. So lots of votes, you know, like lawyers at 10 paces at the moment with, um, this com­pa­ny.

Cameron: So there you go. , So ham’s share price [00:36:00] in the last week, uh, up and down has­n’t real­ly moved a lot. So yeah, no real, noth­ing real to talk about there.

Alright. Um, the only oth­er, I’ve got a ques­tion from Scott, then we can get into some more notes from you. Scott says. Uh, receive the PLT Q3 update and whilst it looked good on the sur­face, there were some ele­ments that were giv­en the glossy PR treat. CFO resigned though they seem to have it under con­trol.

The stock price has been pret­ty volatile since I bought two parcels in July at 95 cents and a dol­lar eight. It has been up to a dol­lar 50 and as low as a dol­lar nine since then with no real indi­ca­tors as to why that I can see oth­er than maybe large share­hold­ers buy­ing and sell­ing chat g gave me some good insights.

Uh, so far today it’s down a lit­tle 1.67%. Over­all, it still seems like it’s doing great. Five [00:37:00] con­sec­u­tive quar­ters of growth, cred­it qual­i­ty good, and recent­ly did a round of fund­ing at 24 BPS low­er than the pre­vi­ous round, which all seems to fit with­in the QAV by indi­ca­tor uni­verse. Inter­est­ed in yours and t K’s.

Thoughts on it? I’m con­sid­er­ing buy­ing more of a drops on the back of this cur­rent three PTL is 98 cents and it has just ticked over a byline from the most recent, recent peak. Um, so. Sure I did­n’t, I did open the chat PT thing, but then I did­n’t have time to read it, so, uh, have you had a look at the announce­ments?

Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: at it. Yeah. Yep, yep. I look over­all, I thought it was, um, you know, rea­son­ably good announce­ment. The CFO res­ig­na­tion thing, I guess, will unfold because they did announce that they were going to name a replace­ment a week lat­er, and it’s, that’s. A week, it’s now about a week after the, quar­ter­ly three [00:38:00] quar­ter three announce­ment went out.

So we should, watch that if they don’t announce some­one for a while, there might be issues, but they said they were going to announce a replace­ment. Now, um, Mr. Drury, the cur­rent CFO is stay­ing on for four months. So, uh, they should, you know, if they, if they do appoint some­one soon, there’ll be an order­ly trans­fer. Um, he’d been there for six years. I, I did­n’t see it as a red flag. Um. I guess if they have trou­ble appoint­ing a replace­ment, then yes, it will be a red flag. But, um, the only ques­tion mark I had was on tim­ing. It’s, it’s com­ing up to, sign off for the annu­al results and the CFO resign­ing isn’t a good look and they haven’t pro­vid­ed the rea­son.

So, um, there could be an issue there. I think if that’s the case, they will have trou­ble appoint­ing a replace­ment. Um, so just watch that announce, watch for that announce­ment A to see if they replaced the per­son when they said they would, and sec­ond­ly the qual­i­ty of that per­son. If it’s a, if it’s a senior per­son with a good cv, then they [00:39:00] would­n’t take the job if they did­n’t think they could sign off on the results.

So that’s some­thing to watch. but, but I don’t, I did­n’t, did­n’t strike me as being a red flag flag except for tim­ing. So just, we’ll just see how that plays out. The rest of it I think was pret­ty good. Um. Um, was, you know, a few ques­tion marks about, uh, how, you know, um, mar­gin com­pres­sion and there was a lit­tle bit of it, but I, I would think if you go back and look at all the quar­ter­ly announce­ments, the mar­gins will fluc­tu­ate a lit­tle bit, and that’s rea­son­able for a com­pa­ny have, uh, vari­a­tions in mar­gins dur­ing the year. Um. So that’s my com­men­tary, I thought. Good. I’ll watch for CFO news before I buy if, if it was me. Um, I don’t own shares in this com­pa­ny, by the way. and the last thing I’d say to Scott, well, two things I’d say to Scott. Um, not per­son­al advice, but we have said we’re gonna wait for new fig­ures to come out for com­pa­nies because of all the, all of the pre­cip­i­tous fluc­tu­a­tions in the mar­kets now around, uh, com­pa­nies who haven’t give guid­ance when they should have or have, [00:40:00] give guid­ance.

And then, it changes when the num­bers come out. So I, I would wait for the. Annu­al num­bers to come out, which will hap­pen, hap­pen at some stage in the next three or four weeks. So you’re not, you’re not sort of cool­ing your heels for, for long. But the sec­ond point I raise is, I’m not sure what Scot­t’s cir­cum­stances are, but it sounds like this is the sec­ond or third par­cel of the same com­pa­ny he’s buy­ing.

So I dun­no if he’s build­ing up to one posi­tion in that com­pa­ny, but gen­er­al­ly I would­n’t buy mul­ti­ple posi­tions in the com­pa­ny unless there was noth­ing else to buy. And I think there are prob­a­bly oth­er things to buy at the moment. So, um, know, Scott might, Scott might want to just con­sid­er this,

Cameron: He might be plan­ning a takeover bid. You nev­er know.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, good luck to him.

Cameron: Um, while we’re talk­ing about stocks, I just hap­pened to, well, I do hold a cou­ple of parcels of PLT in some light port­fo­lios. I actu­al­ly have two, two parcels of it in a light port­fo­lio, which I bought in May of last [00:41:00] year. Must have been pick­ings in May of last year, a cou­ple of weeks apart. Um, so just want­ed to dis­close that.

And I just noticed while I was look­ing at that, that reck­on. The soft­ware provider, RKN, has just become a three point trend­line cell today. So if you hold RKN by the time this comes out, may not be any­more, but check it. Have a look. That’s all I have. Tk, what else have you got to talk about?

Tony Kynas­ton: Pret­ty much cov­ered it. The RBA meets in the now’s time, so, uh. know, I’m gonna be a con­trar­i­an here and project that rates will be kept on hold. Um, mar­ket I think is priced in a rate rise at about a 70 or 80% chance this time. But we’ve seen this before where the RBA says, I’m not gonna be dri­ven by the mar­ket and I’ll, I’ll hold them for a while. they may also [00:42:00] decide to hold, because the Aus­tralian dol­lar’s risen so much, but 10% in the last cou­ple of months. So they will see that as a poten­tial hin­drance, uh, to bring infla­tion back to the range that they seek. So they may not feel the need to, um, cut or raise rates at this stage, but who knows, I’m being a bit con­trar­i­an there just for fun as well. Uh, and the last thing I’ve got to do is a pulled pork on CTI logis­tics.

Cameron: ready. Uh, now my mic can be mut­ed with, uh,

no down­side.

 

Cameron: Uh, thank you, tk. Have a good week, every­one.

Thanks tk. Bye.

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, okay. Thanks.

Bernard: Q A V is a check­list-based sys­tem of val­ue invest­ing devel­oped by Tony  Khyne­ston. over 25 years. To learn more about how it works and how you can learn the sys­tem, vis­it our web­site, Q A V Pod­cast dot com dot A U.

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