QAV AU 902 — Quintuple

 

[00:00:00]

Cameron: Tony’s just try­ing to make me feel bad about how nice the weath­er is down there. Hey, well wel­come back Tony.

Tony Kynas­ton: Thanks Cam. Well, it’s cool and say it was, it’s it’s nice. Yeah. But, uh, it’s, it’s, it’s been amaz­ing. Like we had 40 degree days and now it’s back to 18 in the space of a week. It’s crazy.

Cameron: Well, Vic­to­ria

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm.

Cameron: So you are safe from the fires though. You said you’ve had some

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Yeah. We had smoke on Sat­ur­day. It was, um, which I think prob­a­bly came across from the Otways, which was hav­ing a bush fire and the weath­er often comes from that way from the west. So I think that was it. Noth­ing, noth­ing real­ly close to us. Um, I guess, I dun­no how far the odd ways would be from here was the crow flies 150 Ks maybe.

Um, yeah, so we got smoke, but, um, I was gonna say that for after hours, but the sad news was, well, the good news in the sad news was, uh, some of the farms that I have hors­es at. At [00:01:00] Burnt, um, Lind­sey Park where I have race hors­es at, um, is in Euroa and Long­wood Farm, where I have some brood mares and off­spring is in Long­wood, which was the cen­ter of the bush­fire.

So they both places had to get their hors­es out in the hur­ry overnight. Um, 150 in Long­wood’s case and about 350 in Lind­sey Park’s case. And, and unfor­tu­nate­ly Lind­sey Park lost sev­en hors­es to the fire.

Cameron: Oh no.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Um, so luck­i­ly, well, I should­n’t say luck­i­ly, for­tu­nate­ly none of those were mine. Um, but yeah, it’s been a tough, tough week for the Vic­to­ri­an based breed­ing and rac­ing com­mu­ni­ty real­ly tough.

Cameron: yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: some of the emails and inter­views I’ve seen have just been amaz­ing. I mean, hor­rif­ic and what’s hap­pened and tales of, you know, peo­ple being up for days overnight. Um. Real­ly good [00:02:00] sto­ries of every­one chip­ping in to help. Um, lucky sto­ries of, I mean, in one case a vet was dri­ving past a, a pad­dock and saw it was on fire and got the hors­es out just coin­ci­den­tal­ly.

Um, sto­ries of hors­es, which must be like amaz­ing ani­mals and, and must have some kind of genet­ic dis­po­si­tion to sur­viv­ing fires. But like hors­es com­plete­ly sur­round­ed by flame up against the fence, and then wait­ing for the last minute to jump over the flames to where the burnt and there­fore they were safe.

Um, hors­es, fol­low­ing oth­er hors­es to safe­ty. It’s just, yeah, incred­i­ble,

Cameron: Wow.

Tony Kynas­ton: real­ly unfor­tu­nate. I mean, Lind­sey Park lost their house. They lost pocks. They lost,

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: um, a lot of things. They had. They had fire­fight­ing, irri­ga­tion, but it was real­ly only over their main barns and, and facil­i­ties. But they lost a lot.

Um, Long­wood Farm lost a lot. Uh. [00:03:00] And then they’ve got a, like it’s com­ing on top of a big sale up in the Gold Coast at Mag­ic Mil­lions. So Michael Chris­t­ian, who’s I have a few brood mares with in part­ner­ship, it has to be fly, had to be fly­ing up and back to his farm to deal with the fires and then get the hors­es ready for sale up on the Gold Coast as well.

So it’s a very, very busy time.

Cameron: You know, it’s, uh, sort of, I. Shock­ing to me that we’ve had all of this warn­ing for decades that things were gonna get hot­ter and we were gonna have more fires and this kin­da stuff. And you know, we still have fires and they still cause prob­lems. Like we haven’t fig­ured out solu­tions for pre­vent­ing or damp­en­ing down fires bet­ter than we’re cur­rent­ly doing it.

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, I think a cou­ple of things. I think, I’m sure when every­thing set­tles down, there’ll be inquiries and the rest of it I know. When New South Wales had them, and I was liv­ing in [00:04:00] Syd­ney, there was a lot of media about, and it became very polit­i­cal about, uh, this coun­cil would­n’t allow back burn­ing and that coun­cil would, and um, and then peo­ple would say, well, you should lis­ten to the abo­rig­i­nals who’d been doing it for years and they weren’t allowed to light the nor­mal fires and et cetera, et cetera.

So it’s, it’ll be a, a polit­i­cal shit sand­wich again, as it often is. Um, but in terms of, um, these par­tic­u­lar cas­es, I mean, the sto­ries that I’m hear­ing from the prin­ci­ples like Michael Chris­t­ian and David Hayes who flew back from Hong Kong is just that they thought they were safe. And in this, in like at 3:00 AM in the morn­ing, sud­den­ly the wind gets up to a hun­dred Ks an hour and the fire just turns on the dia­mond and comes roar­ing towards you when you thought you were safe.

So yeah, I mean, maybe they need to change their prac­tices and if there’s a bush­fire in the area, even they have to evac­u­ate the hors­es. But the. But cur­rent­ly the prac­tice is you put them in pad­docks, which, um, are away from trees. So, [00:05:00] um, you know, you find a large pad­dock and it’s away from trees. It should­n’t burn, but the, the fires were just blow­ing bombs onto the pad­docks and the grass was catch­ing a light.

So, um, and it, it hap­pened with­in like half an hour to an hour, so it was very unex­pect­ed and very quick.

Cameron: Yeah, look, I’m just talk­ing more. We’ve got­ta be, we’ve got­ta be doing more. I mean, we still this in Cal­i­for­nia with the fires that

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: uh, a year ago. We have it here. I mean, fires obvi­ous­ly noth­ing new here, but we know it’s gonna be get­ting worse. We, we know

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: it’s guar­an­teed it’s gonna be get­ting hot­ter. are gonna get, be get­ting worse. What are we doing as a soci­ety to pre­pare for that? Maybe there is a lot of stuff being done. I’m just unaware of it. But, um, it’s some­thing that I hope we get a han­dle on. ’cause we don’t want to go through this every year, every cou­ple of years indef­i­nite­ly.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. I agree.

Cameron: It’s

Tony Kynas­ton: And it was only last year or the year before that, [00:06:00] um, these places, Long­wood Farm was affect­ed by floods. So, um, yeah, it’s been, been tough, tough cou­ple of years for them.

Cameron: Well, I’ll tell you who else is hav­ing a tough year. Kevin Rudd. Tony,

Tony Kynas­ton: Um, uh, well, okay, well

Cameron: of

Tony Kynas­ton: small, a small vial in place for him. Yeah,

Cameron: Kevin Rud­d’s out as the US Ambas­sador. Uh, obvi­ous­ly, well, how, I dun­no, when it was late last year when orga­nized a meet­ing with the Prime Min­is­ter and Pres­i­dent Trump, pres­i­dent Trump did­n’t know who he was.

Tony Kynas­ton: I thought Trump did know who he was and said he did­n’t like him and prob­a­bly nev­er would.

Cameron: No. A jour­nal­ist, jour­nal­ist said to him, um, you know, the, the Aus­tralian For­eign Min­is­ter has said some ter­ri­ble things about you. What do you think? He

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh,

Cameron: is he?

Tony Kynas­ton: ambas­sador,

Cameron: he said, ambas­sador, sor­ry. And he said to Albo, [00:07:00] does he still work for you? And Alba’s like, yeah, he’s the guy sit­ting next to me at the table. And Trump was like, oh no, I nev­er heard of him. Um,

Tony Kynas­ton: but he did go on lat­er on to say, I do do know who he is and don’t like him and prob­a­bly nev­er will.

Cameron: yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: Um, look, uh, you who knows what the sit­u­a­tion is. My gut feel is they had to put some dis­tance between those remarks and when Kevin exit­ed, so it did­n’t look like they were just fol­low­ing what Trump want­ed.

Cameron: yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: But, um, it’s gonna be a dif­fi­cult replace­ment, isn’t it? Because I don’t know if Alba can tap any­one on their side of pol­i­tics is gonna be favor­able to Trump

Cameron: And who

Tony Kynas­ton: and, uh

Cameron: about

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: eight years? I.

Tony Kynas­ton: Which means putting a con­ser­v­a­tive per­son in as the ambas­sador.

Cameron: in, put Peter Dut­ton in there.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Or Tony Abell or some­one like that. But, but if they do, if they do that.

And then Trump does­n’t sur­vive, you know, for more than a cou­ple of years, and they’ve got­ta, they’re out a step again in a few years time. So it’s gonna be [00:08:00] an inter­est­ing choice.

Cameron: Yeah. well, fun and games. Um, obvi­ous­ly sort of a crazy peri­od in the US in the last week. Uh, lady in Min­neso­ta get­ting

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: uh, Jerome Pow­ell, Jay Pow­ell

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: under crim­i­nal inves­ti­ga­tion. Along, I think just, not just him, I think the Fed­er­al Reserves under crim­i­nal inves­ti­ga­tion more broad­ly.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, is it,

Cameron: I, I, I think

Tony Kynas­ton: I just read here, I just, what I read was that he gave tes­ti­mo­ny to Con­gress, um, which he does, I think twice a year, and men­tioned the fact that there were over­runs in the re ren­o­va­tions of the Fed build­ing in Wash­ing­ton. And that’s, um, that’s what sparked this crim­i­nal inves­ti­ga­tion. Or crim­i­nal suit or what­ev­er it is over the over­runs.

And of course there’s, again, there’s all sorts of polit­i­cal toing and fro­ing. There’s been alle­ga­tions that they’re putting in a pri­vate bath­room and a, [00:09:00] you know, the pri­vate, uh, eat­ing area for the board and a spe­cial lift and all this stuff, which Jerome’s denied and that they were putting in new mar­ble and pow­ers point­ed out that, uh, they, they’re reusing the cur­rent mar­ble they had to take down, but some of it broke.

So there will be some new mar­ble in to replace that. But, um, they’re reusing what they took out. And it’s a, it’s a very old build­ing. It’s a hun­dred years since it was last main­tained or ren­o­vat­ed. So, um, uh, yeah, it, it’s an excuse, just like it was an excuse that, who’s the oth­er one that they’re pros­e­cut­ing at the moment?

Uh, anoth­er fed. Board mem­ber who was sup­posed to have lied on the mort­gage appli­ca­tion. So she’s being Lisa Cook, I think her name is.

Cameron: Yeah.

that’s

Tony Kynas­ton: So, so she’s being pros­e­cut­ed as well. So it’s, it’s Trump doing what Trump does, using every avenue he can to try and get his way.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: And why is that impor­tant? Um, or why is it impor­tant to have an inde­pen­dent Fed or an inde­pen­dent RBA Well [00:10:00] exact­ly.

To stop peo­ple like Trump from hav­ing their way on inter­est rates because they will cut, uh, to suit them­selves and to suit the elec­toral cycle, and that might not be in the best inter­est of the econ­o­my. Which kind of begs the ques­tion, well, you know, if it’s, if you need inde­pen­dent gov­er­nance of the, of the econ­o­my, why do you need a pres­i­dent?

Or why do you need an elect­ed Prime Min­is­ter or par­lia­ment? Um, why not have like a. Uh, maybe in a, an elect­ed pan­el of review, like a very small sen­ate, and then have all, every­thing run by oli oli­garchies, or what do you call it when the smart peo­ple run the, run the coun­try? Is that an oli­garchy? No, it’s a,

Cameron: tech­nocrats.

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

Okay. Tech­nocrats. I think there’s a term for it where you have, um, yeah. Any­way, yeah. So, you know, why don’t you have a, if you have a, if it’s impor­tant to the econ­o­my to have inde­pen­dence, why isn’t it impor­tant to med­i­cine, defense, um, schools, edu­ca­tion, all the rest of it too,

Cameron: hmm. [00:11:00] Because

Tony Kynas­ton: but

Cameron: does­n’t

Tony Kynas­ton: sor­ry.

Cameron: does bankers as much?

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, maybe. Any­way, that’s an, that’s an aside. Um, I think pret­ty much every­one agrees, except for Trump agrees you have to have an inde­pen­dent board. Um, he’s plac­ing a lot of the pres­sure on Pow­ell, uh, and Pow­ell, he, his term as the Fed chair, fin­ish­es in May, but he’s still a mem­ber of the board for anoth­er year or so.

So. Um, I think, and I don’t quite under­stand how it works in the us I think they have a sev­en mem­ber board, but maybe that’s an exec­u­tive of some­thing like 25 or 30 actu­al mem­bers of the Fed. Uh, there’s a lot, a lot more so, but Trump’s try­ing to get con­trol of that exec­u­tive and get, I think he’s got three out­ta sev­en now and he’s try­ing to get the fourth.

And of course, pow­er was one of his appointees any­way. So, um, uh, it’s some­times just hav­ing the pow­er to a point does­n’t mean you con­trol it, but, um, did­n’t work out in that case. But yeah, I think, uh, you [00:12:00] know, obvi­ous­ly Trump wants to cut inter­est rates, um, if for noth­ing else to give him cov­er on tar­iffs and what­ev­er else he’s doing that caus­es infla­tion, um, includ­ing tax cuts to the rich.

So, uh, yeah, it, it, it’s, I think he’s prov­ing the case for an inde­pen­dent board by his actions real­ly. Um, but you know, some­times soci­ety has to go through a dose of salts and if Trump gets con­trol of the Fed and cuts inter­est rates and there are prob­lems aris­ing because of that, like run­away infla­tion, that that may, you know, mean that the, he does­n’t get away with it the sec­ond time.

We’ll see.

Cameron: Maybe Trump is a genius after all. I

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. That’s quite pos­si­ble.

Cameron: the whole tar­iff sit­u­a­tion does­n’t seem to have

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Cameron: ago when he start­ed mess­ing with that. So who knows?

Tony Kynas­ton: And also too, the fact that they’re doing a build­ing ren­o­va­tion, which is [00:13:00] going over bud­get, I think is, that’s real­ly talk­ing to Trump’s core com­pe­ten­cy of, you know, uh, prop­er­ty devel­op­ment. And

Cameron: Is

Tony Kynas­ton: I think he’s kind of

Cameron: though? Is it his core com­pe­ten­cy?

Tony Kynas­ton: his core busi­ness.

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, well, you’d have to say she’s core com­pe­ten­cy if you, if you accept he’s com­pe­tent in any­thing.

But, um, she’s core busi­ness, so I think that’s kind of got­ten up his nose as well, that he’s employ­ing some­one who can’t ren­o­vate a prop­er­ty to his lik­ing.

Cameron: Yeah, he

Tony Kynas­ton: I,

Cameron: not good. said, uh, Pow­ell’s not good at run­ning the Fed and he is not good at build­ing build­ings either,

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

Cameron: yeah. Well, uh, I tell you who is a genius, Tony, me, I’m a genius. The, uh, the light port­fo­lio for the last 12 months is doing Quint Top­ple Mar­ket. Tony

Tony Kynas­ton: Uhhuh, that’s

Cameron: mar­ket.

Tony Kynas­ton: five, times.

Cameron: Where it’s up 40% ver­sus the index up 8%

Tony Kynas­ton: Wow.

Cameron: 12 months. mean, [00:14:00] okay, it’s your sys­tem, but one of one

Tony Kynas­ton: One of us is a genius. Okay.

Cameron: the genius thing. We’ll share it.

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, I knew I should­n’t have, I knew I should­n’t have appoint­ed you QIV Cocom here.

Cameron: Share the glo­ry. Um, yeah, like quin­tu­ple mar­ket and

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm

Cameron: you know, as you know, the, the light for the first cou­ple of years I was run­ning the light port­fo­lios. They were,

Tony Kynas­ton: hmm.

Cameron: you know, 20% under the mar­ket. Uh, not all of them, but you know,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron: it’s, um, it’s, it’s been absolute­ly bonkers. I sent out the QAV Light email, uh, newslet­ter yes­ter­day say­ing We’re doing quin­tu­ple mar­ket over the last year.

Don’t wor­ry, it’s not gonna last. Like,

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm. That’s right.

Cameron: of any­thing, it’s not gonna last. But it should give us wind in the sails any­way, for the light

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: for a long time to come. Um, but,

Tony Kynas­ton: That’s good. What’s been the [00:15:00] stand­out?

Cameron: Oh, good ques­tion. Um, let me, let me bring up Navexa and have a look.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, we’re doing that too. Can you give us a split between growth and div­i­dends? ’cause that’s gonna be a ques­tion we have to answer

Cameron: oh, I

Tony Kynas­ton: the down the track. Mm.

Cameron: in the last one year, I said, oh, today it’s 41.6%, um, over the last 12 months, cap­i­tal gain, 35% ver­sus 6% for income return.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay. So it’s growth.

Cameron: yeah, well and tru­ly growth.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: so we’ve got, uh, WGN up 177%

Tony Kynas­ton: Wag­n­ers. Yep.

Cameron: GNP up 145

Tony Kynas­ton: Genus plus

Cameron: up 138

Tony Kynas­ton: Reg­is Resources.

Cameron: SRG up 130 PRN up 122 SHA up 120 [00:16:00] PRU up 95 NWH up, 90 a SG up, 85 SXE up. 74, 73 74. Yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: a lot. That’s a lot of stocks giv­ing almost dou­ble returns.

Cameron: yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: bonkers year for the port­fo­lios. And you know, some of them, know, I hold in a num­ber of the light port­fo­lios, so, you know, it’s sort of, we’ve got that growth across 2, 3, 4 port­fo­lios. Um,

Tony Kynas­ton: That’s inter­est­ing too, isn’t it? ’cause I’ve always thought if you hit the larg­er, the port­fo­lio, the more index, like the returns. But your four port­fo­lios that have 50 plus stocks in them, would­n’t they? If you aggre­gate them.

Cameron: Uh, yeah, I’m look­ing through if Navexa tells me here how many stocks, let me see. Um, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, [00:17:00] 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, 32, 34, 36, 38, 40, 41.

Tony Kynas­ton: 41 stocks. Okay?

Cameron: Across four port­fo­lios.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: on no more. 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47. Near­ly 50. Um, so there’s a bit of over­lap between dif­fer­ent port­fo­lios. Um, and you know, not all of them have the to 20. Uh, but uh, yeah, like real­ly, real­ly amaz­ing per­for­mance and a lot of that obvi­ous­ly, I think is in the last, uh, six months too. So Good times.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: The US port­fo­lio has had a resur­gence as well in the last three months, but we’ll talk about that, our US show com­ing up next, but it’s doing quite well as well for some [00:18:00] rea­son. Tell you who’s not doing well? Super retail, Tony.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, I know I, I’m a share­hold­er.

Cameron: Hmm? Tell us

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: retail yes­ter­day.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, they put out their, well, it’s con­fes­sion sea­son. That’s the first point to note. I guess we’re com­ing into, or in Jan­u­ary and in Feb­ru­ary we’ll get the, um, results announce­ments. But they, they put out a, an update yes­ter­day, um, which I did­n’t think was too bad, to be hon­est.

Uh, like for like sales, which is the impor­tant met­ric if you’re a retail­er, they were up two and a half per­cent. Um, which is pret­ty much in line with what peo­ple thought. But there was a bit of, uh, an under­shoot on the prof­it side of things, not by a whole lot. Um, so I don’t think that was the rea­son for a, I think it was about a 5% sell down yes­ter­day in the share price.

Um, but what, uh, I think what spooked ana­lysts was the fact that they men­tioned in the announce­ment that there had been more pro­mo­tion­al dis­count­ing going on, um, in [00:19:00] the busi­ness. And, uh, so that’s hurts Mar that’s hurt mar­gins a lit­tle bit. Um, but I think the rea­son why the ana­lysts are focus­ing on that is because one of the busi­ness­es that Super own is re is, uh, sor­ry, rebel Sport.

And, um, uh, a large UK sport retail­er called Sports Direct opened their first store in Mel­bourne, um, at the end of last year. And so the ana­lysts are kind of wait­ing to see what hap­pens with com­pe­ti­tion and if the fact that the, the busi­ness was dis­count­ing more, um, maybe they’re already suf­fer­ing from com­pe­ti­tion, uh, I’m, I’m not sure, uh.

I went and had a look at, I mean, I went into that sports direct store just after it opened last year, just out­ta curios­i­ty and did­n’t blame me away. I mean, it was a, it’s a flag­ship store, so it was light and bright and big. But, um, you know, it did­n’t, did­n’t, to me it did­n’t seem to car­ry a, any big­ger range in the Rebel Sports Store Award or [00:20:00] have any sort of unique sell­ing propo­si­tion to it real­ly.

So, uh, it might just be the fact that if there’s anoth­er large com­peti­tor com­ing into the mar­ket, then Rebel’s mar­gins will decline even­tu­al­ly. But, um, ’cause they’ve been the cat­e­go­ry killer to date. But, uh, so far sports directs only open one site. They have a, a retail, um, online pres­ence, um, which encour­aged them to open, uh, stores in Aus­tralia.

We’ll have to wait and see what hap­pens, but I think that the ana­lysts are a bit spooked about what could hap­pen rather than what has hap­pened so far.

Cameron: Mm.

Tony Kynas­ton: A cou­ple of oth­er things too. I mean, it’s got a new CEO so you recall there was a, a lot of, um. Noise around this stock. Last year when the CEO was alleged to have an affair with the head of hr, and there was, we saw blow­ers who were sacked and they launched, um, court cas­es.

So I’m, you know, hop­ing that’s, that sort of noise is behind them. But with a new CEO, he’s got a, uh, you know, make him­self, [00:21:00] um, he’s got to earn the trust of the ana­lysts, uh, and get a bit of, um, bit of a track record, which he has­n’t had at the moment. This is his first result. So, um, yeah, it’s a bit of a wait and see with a new CEO to, to see how long it takes for them to get trust­ed as well.

Cameron: Uh, it’s not a cell for you yet or any­thing though,

Tony Kynas­ton: I got an alert overnight to say the cross, the cell line, but when I looked this morn­ing it was up again above it and it still is now. So,

Cameron: right?

Tony Kynas­ton: um, I’ll, yeah, I’ll just have to fol­low the rules. If it becomes a, a cell, yeah, I’ll have to sell it. Um, but like I said, I was­n’t that trou­bled with. Results or the, sor­ry, the, um, sales announce­ment, the update,

Cameron: Right.

Tony Kynas­ton: um, cer­tain­ly not enough.

I, I could­n’t see why it was jus­ti­fied this for a 5% sell off in the stock and it’s, it’s been back up again above its byline today. So per­haps I’m not alone in that thought. I,

Cameron: Uh, I’m just

Tony Kynas­ton: sor­ry. Above its sell line today? Yeah.

Cameron: I’m look­ing at it on the bread let­ter. It looks like it’s [00:22:00] well above its cell line, too.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: line. I’ve got a dol­lar a 1417, and it’s trad­ing at 1469, so there’s a bit of buffer

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

yeah, That’s what I’ve got too.

Cameron: Hmm. Speak­ing of bylines and cell lines, you and I have been hav­ing email threads about grope.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: grope? How’s your grop­ing going this week? Tony?

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, very slow­ly. I spent most of the week­end on it. Prob­a­bly only done about 25 trans­ac­tions I think ’cause it’s just so slow. So thank you for the code. That was a big help. Um.

Cameron: Did you get my update last night?

Tony Kynas­ton: I haven’t had a chance to look at it yet. Sor­ry. I’ve been prep­ping for the show, so.

Cameron: code, I think the, the code, um, you know, you, you sent me a bunch of, um. Places where it with your man­u­al or the ator? When I went through them one by one, it was Finance ver­sus Google Finance num­bers, except

Tony Kynas­ton: okay.

Cameron: cou­ple that were delist­ed, SDG and [00:23:00] ECX. Turns out my back­up data of delist­ed stocks did­n’t have any prices for those.

So the code was just going,

Tony Kynas­ton: Right.

Cameron: too bad. I did have some data for TRS so I could do the TRS one, but the oth­ers, uh, so I’m, uh, Jor­dan, uh, emailed me, uh, and said that he’s got some pric­ing his­to­ry for delist­ed stocks. So I’ve asked him if he

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, good.

Cameron: and SDG, uh, and any oth­ers that we may need could, that’s gonna

Tony Kynas­ton: MLD.

Cameron: right. That’s the big prob­lem I’ve got at the moment. Where are you get­ting, you said you did some man­u­al num­bers on those. How are you get­ting

Tony Kynas­ton: Stock Doc­tor,

Cameron: on ’ em? How,

Tony Kynas­ton: uh, well this, the charts are still in Stock, Doc­tor. So I go into the chart and do it like we used to do before the bread label, get a five year month­ly graph up and then use the seg­ment draw­ing tool.

Cameron: I.

go into Stock Doc­tor for ECX and it’s got noth­ing. It says

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, it’ll be under Fleet Part­ners, prob­a­bly FPR?

Cameron: Right. But FPR [00:24:00] was around Oh, oh. It just changed. Okay. So it just changed it name, it was­n’t an acqui­si­tion.

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, no, it just changed its name.

Cameron: Okay. So I can use that one. And what about SDG?

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, still in Stock Doc­tor. I’ve been able to use Stock Doc­tor for all the delist­ed stocks. S‑D-G-M-L‑D, which of course is a fea­ture of QAV. We, we have stocks on our buy list that get acquired. Um, yeah. And, uh, makes it, makes back back­track­ing a bit hard­er.

Cameron: Alright. Yeah. Okay, well, I, I, I can rerun it on FPR and um, look at it with SDG and do those man­u­al­ly too. Find out why my codes, well, yeah, my code’s not run­ning on either of those ’cause it does­n’t have prices. But the rest of it I think is okay. I think there’s just, um, Yahoo. Finances num­bers don’t always agree with Google Finances.

Uh, [00:25:00] prices and stuff.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay. Well, if you are con­fi­dent, I’ll, I’ll use your, your code. I’ve been dou­ble check­ing every­thing as I go at this stage.

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Um, but yeah, so that’s part of the prob­lem. The oth­er prob­lem, of course, is uh, you know, say I have to sell some­thing in my analy­sis, then I have to go and find the.

Buy list, open it up, um, change the code and the buy list to add the growth over PE to the QAV score, do a rank­ing and then, um, pick the next stock that has, isn’t already in the port­fo­lio and isn’t, um, isn’t a, uh, Josephine or a com­mod­i­ty sell or what­ev­er. So yeah, it’s just painstak­ing at the moment. But yeah, I’ll get there.

I did sort of stop, yes, or stop on Sun­day night and think maybe I just need to do this with one or two stocks, first of all, and just see if that is con­clu­sive and then maybe expand it out to five or 10. ’ cause I’m doing it with 20 stocks and it’s just very cum­ber­some and slow at the moment. [00:26:00] And I ini­tial­ly did it with 20, because the first time I looked at it, there was­n’t a huge dif­fer­ence in the top of the buy list between, um, adding growth over PE per­cent­age to the score and just hav­ing the score as it cur­rent­ly is.

Um. Part­ly because all of our stocks don’t have a growth record­ed ’cause they’re not cov­ered by ana­lysts. And um, part­ly because a, all of the stocks, you know, have ane­mic growth over pe uh, ’cause we’re look­ing at growth over pe not just the growth. And so they can be grown at 20%, but if they’re PE is 20, then we don’t, you know, does­n’t, does­n’t add much to the QAV QAV score.

Cameron: Hmm,

Tony Kynas­ton: Um, so it’s only those ones which have real­ly big growth fore­cast. Um, that makes a dif­fer­ence. But any­way, I’ll, I’ll keep plug­ging away ’cause it’s very inter­est­ing to look at. Um,

Cameron: hmm,

Tony Kynas­ton: and as you, you just out­lined in your, uh, port­fo­lio review, it seems like this year any­way, growth has been dri­ving every­thing. So there’s got­ta be some­thing in in there to, that we can [00:27:00] use

Cameron: hmm Well, the email I got from Jor­dan was about the fact that he’s just fin­ished his own regres­sion test­ing sys­tem that,

Tony Kynas­ton: Right.

Cameron: He’s shared with me, well, he shared the out­put, not the code, but the out­put of some of the stuff that he’s worked on. So I did send him an email and asked if we can add or if we can tweak it to look at

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm.

Cameron: So I’ll let you know when he gets

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Thanks. Okay,

Cameron: Thanks, Jor­dan. Good job, Jor­dan.

Tony Kynas­ton: thank you.

Cameron: Uh, well that’s all I’ve got. We’ve got some ques­tions from Doug. What else have you got on your list of talk­ing points, Tony

Tony Kynas­ton: The last thing I had to talk about was just to, um, back up what a good year it’s been because, uh, my broth­er-in-law Wal gave me his returns. Um, we caught up yes­ter­day, had a nice game of golf at Morn­ing­ton up the road. Love­ly day and great course over­look­ing the bay. Any­way, his, um, his results [00:28:00] were up 37.69% for the finan­cial year, so he was pret­ty hap­py with that.

And, uh,

Cameron: year?

Tony Kynas­ton: uh, actu­al­ly it does­n’t, could be cal­en­dar, it does­n’t actu­al­ly say on what he sent me. Could be cal­en­dar, prob­a­bly cal­en­dar.

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: Um, and that was, um, main­ly growth as well. 32% growth and 6% div­i­dends.

Cameron: Well, as I

Tony Kynas­ton: um,

Cameron: most of the light growth I think came in the last six months. So it could be the finan­cial year too.

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

Cameron: of the finan­cial year was pret­ty flat for us.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay. Yeah, I’m not sure. It does­n’t say, but he was hap­py with that. It’s a good result. So thanks for shar­ing. Uh, and the only oth­er thing I’ve got is a pulled pork on KIP McGrath edu­ca­tion.

Cameron: So just going back to light, so I said 41.65% for the last 12 months. If I look at this finan­cial year, it’s only 29 point 19. So yeah, the first six [00:29:00] months, uh, well, some part of the first six months did count.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: It’s not just the finan­cial year.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay.

Cameron: Okay. So, uh, Kip, who,

Tony Kynas­ton: KIP McGrath Edu­ca­tion.

Cameron: all right, do you wan­na do Doug’s? Ques­tions first.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, sure.

Cameron: Doug and I haven’t heard from Doug for ages,

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm

Cameron: great. Great to hear from you, Doug. Um, an update on returns from Doug since incep­tion with you guys in 2020. He’s got two accounts. Super account num­ber one, 19.16 CAGR super. Account num­ber two 19.42% cagr, both rough­ly 12% cap­i­tal growth and 7% div­i­dends.

One account is twice the val­ue of the oth­er, but oth­er­wise always stayed ful­ly invest­ed with min­i­mal cash for insur­ances and oth­er costs. I thank you QAV. done Doug.

Tony Kynas­ton: mm. It’s good. Good num­bers.

Cameron: Yeah, and right on the mon­ey, [00:30:00] CAGR over five odd years. Uh, just where you’d want it to be. So well done. Now to my ques­tions, I’m start­ing a port­fo­lio out­side of super and using some debt to gear it.

 

 

Quote of the day: “Love all, trust a few, Do wrong to none.”

All’s Well That Ends Well, William Shake­speare