In this free episode, Tony does a deep âpulled porkâ analyÂsis of Aeris Resources, explorÂing why copÂper-gold proÂducÂers are back on the QAV buy list despite capÂiÂtal-raisÂing risks.
This weekâs full episode is for QAV Club memÂbers only. You can lisÂten to the free verÂsion above. Also check out our podÂcast archives link and our pages on Apple PodÂcasts or SpoÂtiÂfy or watch clips on TikÂTok. Or visÂit our homeÂpage to learn more about QAV and how it works as a valÂue investÂing sysÂtem that you can learn and apply to beat the marÂket.
Club Member Episode â Overview
In this episode, Cameron and Tony surÂvey a marÂket thatâs losÂing some momenÂtum in iron ore while rapidÂly pivÂotÂing toward copÂper as the next strucÂturÂal comÂmodÂiÂty stoÂry. They unpack Fortescueâs move into PeruÂvian copÂper, the impliÂcaÂtions of slowÂing ChiÂnese infraÂstrucÂture investÂment, and why AI data cenÂtres are turÂbo-chargÂing copÂper demand globÂalÂly. The disÂcusÂsion ranges from takeover batÂtles in West African gold, BufÂfett sucÂcesÂsion intrigue at BerkÂshire HathÂaway, and a sharp criÂtique of Australiaâs comÂpenÂsaÂtion schemes for failed investÂment prodÂucts. The episode closÂes with a deep âpulled porkâ analyÂsis of Aeris Resources, explorÂing why copÂper-gold proÂducÂers are back on the QAV buy list despite capÂiÂtal-raisÂing risks.
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Timestamps & Topics
00:00 â PortÂfoÂlio perÂforÂmance update
DumÂmy portÂfoÂlio vs ASX, Light portÂfoÂlios outÂperÂformÂing the index; standÂout perÂforÂmance from EDU.
05:10 â FortesÂcue moves into copÂper
FMG proÂposÂes acquiÂsiÂtion of Alta CopÂper and the CañariÂaÂco copÂper project in Peru as part of diverÂsiÂfiÂcaÂtion beyond iron ore.
ComÂpaÂnies: FortesÂcue (FMG), Alta CopÂper
07:00 â ChiÂna infraÂstrucÂture slowÂdown
DisÂcusÂsion of falling ChiÂnese fixed-asset investÂment and why iron ore demand may have peaked strucÂturalÂly.
08:30 â CopÂper and AI data cenÂtres
Why AI, elecÂtriÂfiÂcaÂtion, EVs, and grid upgrades are creÂatÂing long-term copÂper shortÂages.
12:30 â Perseus vs PreÂdicÂtive takeover batÂtle
Perseus Miningâs bid for PreÂdicÂtive DisÂcovÂery, Robex counter-moves, and why overÂpayÂing would be a misÂtake.
ComÂpaÂnies: Perseus MinÂing (PRU), PreÂdicÂtive DisÂcovÂery (PDI), Robex Resources
19:30 â BerkÂshire HathÂaway sucÂcesÂsion watch
Todd Combs exits BerkÂshire as WarÂren BufÂfett steps down; specÂuÂlaÂtion about future breakup risks.
ComÂpaÂnies: BerkÂshire HathÂaway (BRK.B), JPMorÂgan Chase (JPM)
22:30 â First Guardian fund colÂlapse
CriÂtique of moral hazÂard and bailout proÂposÂals after the First Guardian investÂment failÂure; Macquarieâs comÂpenÂsaÂtion deciÂsion.
ComÂpaÂnies: MacÂquarÂie Group (MQG)
27:00 â CopÂper mega-mergÂers and minÂing stratÂeÂgy
BHP, Rio, Anglo AmerÂiÂcan, and Teck Resources posiÂtionÂing for a copÂper-led future.
ComÂpaÂnies: BHP Group (BHP), Rio TinÂto (RIO), Anglo AmerÂiÂcan (AAL), Teck Resources (TECK)
34:30 â ASX govÂerÂnance critÂiÂcism
ASIC report slams ASX for priÂoriÂtisÂing profÂits over marÂket stewÂardÂship.
ComÂpaÂny: ASX LimÂitÂed (ASX)
36:00 â Pulled Pork: Aeris Resources
Deep dive into Aeris Resources as a copÂper-gold proÂducÂer: asset base, costs, capÂiÂtal raisÂings, WashÂingÂton H. Soul PatÂtinÂson stake, and QAV metÂrics.
ComÂpaÂny: Aeris Resources (AIS)
53:00 â ComÂmodÂiÂty staÂtus update
CopÂper remains a Buy; iron ore slips to Josephine; LNG and WoodÂside flagged.
ComÂpaÂnies: WoodÂside EnerÂgy (WDS)
Transcription
[00:00:00]
Cameron: Two short shows. Tony, welÂcome back to the show. Tony, welÂcome back to QAV Tony here at the, uh, SydÂney CrickÂet Ground FMG. Tonyâs in the News today. How are you, Tony? Howâs Cape Schanck? Tony
Tony KynasÂton: Uh, yeah. Good. not
Cameron: Richie?
Tony KynasÂton: as sunÂny as the SEG, but, uh, itâs, it, it,
Cameron: do you wanÂna attempt, do you wanÂna attempt your, uh, south African accent? Iâll do Richie. You do. Uh, who was the othÂer guy?
Tony KynasÂton: Tony, Iâll, Iâll just gut my keys and stack them into, I wick up in the hour. Look at that crack. Thatâs, thatâs more Irish, I think, isnât it?
Cameron: Yeah, theyâre close. Close enough.
Tony KynasÂton: Yeah. I can do, I can do benÂno.
Cameron: EveryÂone can do betÂter if you grew up in the sevÂenÂties and eightÂies, you can do Richie betÂter?
Tony KynasÂton: And BilÂly BirmÂingÂhamâs verÂsion of, um,
Cameron: Yeah. I think weâre all doing BilÂly BirmÂingÂhamâs verÂsion of Richie.
Tony KynasÂton: The bone, the brown, the off white. The white, the gray. [00:01:00] Hmm. Well the third test starts soon, so at least thatâll be a
Cameron: Yep.
Tony KynasÂton: from all the wonÂderÂful news hapÂpenÂing in AusÂtralia this week.
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Tony KynasÂton: Okay. They decidÂed about a pulled pork to do camp on Aris resources, if Iâm proÂnouncÂing that [00:36:00] right. AâI-S-A-E-R-IâS. How do you proÂnounce that, cam?
Cameron: Paris,
Tony KynasÂton: thatâs what I thought.
Cameron: you havenât you done them recentÂly? I feel like we did them like last week.
Tony KynasÂton: Well, I, I had the same feelÂing. Itâs not in our list of pulled porks. And rememÂber doing it about five years ago. I was in, in the first year, I think, of our podÂcast series. I rememÂber it because we had a big debate about how we treatÂed a comÂpaÂny that had more than one comÂmodÂiÂty, um, that at mine and how we found a comÂmodÂiÂty chart that comÂpaÂny. And we startÂed to look
Cameron: Right.
Tony KynasÂton: its, its revÂenue split or its profÂit split between those comÂmodiÂties. And this one s, I think is. Almost neck and neck and that was the issue for us. Which one do we use? and I think it all alterÂnates between copÂper and gold, but in this case now, it doesÂnât matÂter âcause both copÂper and gold are buy.
So whichevÂer one we decide is the more domÂiÂnant. Um, and they seem to be fairÂly, even in terms of, um, split for this comÂpaÂny. [00:37:00] Theyâre both doing well. And thatâs anothÂer reaÂson for pickÂing it today is itâs to extend this copÂper theme, um, for our very own bio copÂper minÂer.
Cameron: Episode 4 37. Tony, itâs, uh, when you did it.
Tony KynasÂton: How long
Cameron: so thatâs a few, uh, a few years ago.
Tony KynasÂton: Yeah, yeah,
Cameron: Uh, SepÂtemÂber, 2021 was the last time we did it,
Tony KynasÂton: yeah. I thought,
Cameron: and
Tony KynasÂton: ago. Say four years ago. Okay.
Cameron: we did talk about Robert Millerâs deparÂture from the board last week. Thatâs why it was fresh in my mind.
Tony KynasÂton: Oh, okay. Was it, was it this board that he left? Yes.
Cameron: Uh, yeah.
Tony KynasÂton: Yeah. Okay.
Cameron: Um, yeah, it was resources.
Tony KynasÂton: Okay. Um, well, I, I checked this mornÂing and, um, they, uh, sole pat still has a large shareÂholdÂing in the comÂpaÂny anyÂway, so, um, I havenât seen any announceÂment about a replaceÂment, but I [00:38:00] expect, uh, so Patel wanÂna have someÂone on the board of this comÂpaÂny. Um, okay, so letâs, letâs go through it. âcause, uh, if you like the copÂper theme, this is what to have a look at. Um, and itâs also a reaÂsonÂable size. ADT is $2.6 milÂlion for this comÂpaÂny. So, um, one of the bigÂger ones on the buy list, itâs a mid-tier preÂcious metÂals proÂducÂer. Um, they have two proÂducÂing operÂaÂtions and they call out three develÂopÂment projects. uh. A lot of these, um, the, a lot of the, a lot of their, or both of their operÂatÂing, uh, mines have fairÂly large tenÂeÂments and theyâre still drilling and explorÂing on those tenÂeÂments and have some prospects.
Uh, they can conÂtinÂue to, um, develÂop into furÂther mines. So they say an excelÂlent platÂform for growth, and itâs probÂaÂbly fairÂly true. two, uh, corÂnerÂstone assets. The TritÂten [00:39:00] Mine, which is, um, a high grade underÂground copÂper mine locatÂed in CenÂtral New South Wales, near the town of IngÂham. Um, and thatâs on a square kiloÂmeÂter perÂspecÂtive.
TenÂeÂment packÂage as well, includes opporÂtuÂniÂties for expanÂsion, which were already, um, kind of underÂway for the Wabe pit. Um, uh, conÂstelÂlaÂtion and Ong and BudÂgety, um, potenÂtial mines Mabb Wabi pitâs. InterÂestÂing. It was, um, an old copÂper mine slatÂed for rehab, but because the copÂper price is boomÂing, theyâre gonna, um, retrip the mine and, uh, push off the rehaÂbilÂiÂtaÂtion of it, which means they save a bit of monÂey on rehab, but theyâre also makÂing monÂey, um, uh, now that they can afford to, conÂtinÂue minÂing in the Mabb Wabi pit. Um, they also have a mine called Krakow, which is a, in QueensÂland, um, about 500 kiloÂmeÂters northÂwest [00:40:00] of BrisÂbane, and thatâs their mature high grade goldÂmine. They also had assets in North QueensÂland, which theyâve recentÂly sold for 15.5 milÂlion. And, uh, last I saw that was expectÂed to comÂplete soon. And that was the Mount ColÂin mine.
Um, and that also had tenÂeÂments, uh, one called the BarÂbara Project, which looks promisÂing. But they decidÂed to, um, to sell that rather than go through the capÂiÂtal develÂopÂment required to, uh, to conÂtinÂue with it. uh, also have over in WA an opporÂtuÂniÂty called Jaguar, which is, um, focused on copÂper, zinc. It was a mine called the, um, itâs called a brand field opporÂtuÂniÂty. So itâs an X mine that they can restart, but theyâre also doing gold exploÂration in the area, which is, um, promisÂing in five prospecÂtive areas. The Jaguar mine is curÂrentÂly on care and mainÂteÂnance, which is costÂing a couÂple of milÂlion bucks a year, but they may well start that up again in the [00:41:00] future.
And I also have the stockÂman, uh, tenÂeÂment in VicÂtoÂria, which is also copÂper, zinc, gold, and potenÂtialÂly silÂver. uh, in terms of what the feaÂsiÂbilÂiÂty study is showÂing and their. a 12 year mine plan for that, uh, Ong mine in the StockÂman area. And, um, uh, theyâre at feaÂsiÂbilÂiÂty study there and theyâre decidÂing to, um, shore up their proÂposÂals to proÂceed there. Um, couÂple of things I noticed in their results. They are a high cost mine. I, I didÂnât, um. DidÂnât, uh, pick up on what their copÂper were, but, uh, their latÂest quarÂter said theyâre all in susÂtainÂable costs for gold operÂaÂtions are 3,692 AusÂtralian dolÂlars per ounce in the SepÂtemÂber quarÂter. Uh, which is kind of fine givÂen that gold sellÂing for 6,500 Aussie a ounce.
So thereâs a, a marÂgin there. [00:42:00] I asked, uh, Google GemÂiÂni, what was the, to gimme some examÂples of ASX gold minÂers and it said in late 2025. The oil and susÂtainÂing costs vary, but many major minÂers like NorthÂern Star hovÂer around 2,100 to 2,300 some like evoÂluÂtion, minÂing, tarÂget, even lowÂer costs at 1400.
So, uh, a few othÂer examÂples there, like mid-tier minÂer, like GenÂeÂsis was around 2,300. So this comÂpaÂnyâs at the highÂer end of that. Now whether that comes down, if they do go ahead with some gold expanÂsion, um, whether it comes down as they get out of North QueensÂland, which is being sold, Iâm not sure. but that, um, itâs cerÂtainÂly a case that looks like this comÂpaÂnyâs makÂing hay while the prices are high. Um, and if they conÂtinÂue to go highÂer, good luck to them. anothÂer interÂestÂing, uh, part of the finances for this comÂpaÂny is a thing called enviÂronÂmenÂtal bonds. So come across this in the detail [00:43:00] that they were called out with uh, areas as case, but Iâll go through it quickÂly. Aras resources holds enviÂronÂmenÂtal bonds, which are in finanÂcial assurÂances, that the govÂernÂment requires that when they do exit their mines, that they have sufÂfiÂcient funds for the rehaÂbilÂiÂtaÂtion those mines.
And of the reaÂsons that WashÂingÂton H sold Pat was involved in the comÂpaÂnies, they proÂvidÂed a $60 milÂlion guarÂanÂtee facilÂiÂty these enviÂronÂmenÂtal bonds. Um, and, uh, along with the fact that the comÂpaÂny has to hold $80 milÂlion in restrictÂed cash, and that covÂers all their requireÂments for enviÂronÂmenÂtal bonds.
And um, was refiÂnanced, uh, with WHSP. WashÂingÂton sold Pats recentÂly. Uh, they did have, priÂor to that, a $50 milÂlion facilÂiÂty from a NZ. Um, they also did a capÂiÂtal raisÂing last year, which I think may have repaid a fair bit [00:44:00] of that. guarÂanÂtee. They raised someÂthing like, uh, $80 milÂlion, um, at the end of this year.
So the cap raisÂing was 80 milÂlion in OctoÂber and a share purÂchase plan for anothÂer 10 milÂlion, which closed just recentÂly, thatâs been used to repay, uh, debt. So interÂestÂing sort of, um, uh, interÂestÂing sort of finanÂcial instruÂment, these enviÂronÂmenÂtal bonds. And theyâve been, um, parÂtialÂly backed by a bank and then WashÂingÂton sold pats and now it looks like, um, uh, that debt has been covÂered by capÂiÂtal raisÂing. Um, the othÂer thing about, uh, that we could see in the finanÂcial results this year is that a IS is now profÂitable verÂsus a loss, uh, in 2024. And I think perÂhaps even for the year before that, FY 25 results, uh, was revÂenue up 37 milÂlion net profÂit, up 69 milÂlion resultÂing in a net profÂit of 45 milÂlion from a loss the year before. So, [00:45:00] um. Doing well this year, which is probÂaÂbly why itâs back on the buy list. ThrowÂing off cash again, uh, I said before. So Pats has a stake. Itâs 31% stake in Aries resources. So a bit of hisÂtoÂry. Uh, Aries acquired sole Pats copÂper busiÂness Round Oak for $234 milÂlion in 2022. The cash and script deal saw sopas joined the regÂisÂter and sopas Bob MilÂner being admitÂted to the board. Um, they also replaced sopas debt in April, which I said with anothÂer capÂiÂtal raisÂing of $70 milÂlion. And, uh, part of this artiÂcle in the AFR on the 29th of OctoÂber states that the shares have gained more than 180% this year. So theyâre on the rebound. Um, what else can I say? Uh, they also bought, uh, oh no, sorÂry, uh, as part of the, this, uh, buyÂout of salt pets. [00:46:00] Mines comÂpaÂny Round Oak. Uh, they, they bought or they acquired the flagÂship asset, which was the Jaguar, zinc, copÂper, silÂver, and gold mine in WA that was preÂviÂousÂly owned by IGO LimÂitÂed, which is in the EastÂern GoldÂfield Fields region two 50 Ks north of KalÂgoÂorÂlie. Um, and it made a profÂit in JanÂuÂary.
But howÂevÂer, the, um, the mine was, or the Jaguar mine itself was talked about being in Keira mainÂteÂnance in the, in the most recent announceÂments I saw. So that may well come back out of care of mainÂteÂnance, espeÂcialÂly if they find someÂthing worth minÂing, or if the copÂper price and gold price keeps going. Um, what else can I say? probÂaÂbly about it. So I guess my take on the hisÂtoÂry of this comÂpaÂny is itâs done a lot of acquiÂsiÂtions and itâs now sellÂing off to North QueensÂland assets. and if you are thinkÂing about buyÂing into this comÂpaÂny, itâs just done a capÂiÂtal raisÂing. [00:47:00] And youâve gotÂta be preÂpared, I think, to expect more capÂiÂtal activÂiÂty in the future, always an issue for these kinds of, um, small to mid cap minÂing comÂpaÂnies.
Theyâll, theyâll try and grow both organÂiÂcalÂly, but they, they also have one eye to the fact that their minds wonât last forÂevÂer. And theyâre usuÂalÂly sort of a decade long before they become investible, but they may not get to two decades, which means they need to conÂtinÂue to raise monÂey and either acquire or conÂtinÂue to explore.
So thatâs just someÂthing to tuck away the back of your mind if youâre thinkÂing about buyÂing into a comÂpaÂny like. To go through the QAV numÂbers. Stock price used is 54 cents, which is above IV one of 23 cents, but below IV two of a dolÂlar 26. the curÂrent stock price is 87% of conÂsenÂsus. TarÂget comÂpaÂny doesÂnât pay a divÂiÂdend, so we canât score it for that Stock DocÂtor.
FinanÂcial health and trend is strong and steady. Wikipedia, interÂestÂingÂly enough, have a qualÂiÂty rank of 70, an overÂall rank of 95 due to highÂer rankÂings for valÂue [00:48:00] and momenÂtum. But they give it an F score of eight out of nine. So I thought that was interÂestÂing at scores almost perÂfectÂly for its F score, but itâs qualÂiÂty rank is only 70.
So Iâm not sure whether stock Edia or still lookÂing at, um, a comÂpaÂny which was carÂryÂing $80 milÂlion worth of debt or not when it came out with its qualÂiÂty rank. Canât tell. but the overÂall rank of 95 is very strong. the PE for the comÂpaÂny is 11.8, which is the highÂest in the last three years, even though. MakÂing a loss for part for probÂaÂbly half that periÂod. Um, we, uh, we canât use a lot of, uh, PEs to comÂpare that to Pr/OpCaf is only 4.74 times, which is good. equiÂty per share is 28 cents, so we canât buy it for book or book plus 30, which I guess is also, you know, a reflecÂtion of some of the goodÂwill itâs carÂryÂing from its past acquiÂsiÂtions. ForeÂcast. EPS growth, howÂevÂer, is 174%, so growth over P is 14.6 times, which is way above our cutÂoff of 1.5 before we score it. So [00:49:00] we like that. DoesÂnât have an ownÂer, founder. DirecÂtors only hold 1% of stock. But the execÂuÂtive chairÂmanâs got a reaÂsonÂably meanÂingÂful, stake in the comÂpaÂny, I guess on as a perÂsonÂal basis.
So, we canât score it for that, but itâs kind of good to see that heâs got about $4 milÂlion worth of stock himÂself, as I said. So Pats has a corÂnerÂstone stake in this. Uh, Bob Mil left. Bob Mil left last week. We donât know why, but I expect, um, so Pats may replace him. I mean, itâs a, not, uh, a wild, you know, a wild part of fan fanÂcy fanÂtaÂsy to say that perÂhaps theyâre lookÂing to sell their stake to get off the board where that hapÂpens.
I, we just dunÂno, thereâs too much, vacÂuÂum around his deparÂture to know whatâs going on there, but until recentÂly he was on the board. Uh, the comÂpaÂny is not a new point trendÂline uptick. Uh, net equiÂty per share is not conÂsisÂtentÂly increasÂing, so we canât score it for either of those. [00:50:00] ForeÂcast iv, enough, is twice the share price.
Um, so IV two is a dolÂlar 26 share price is 54 cents, and thatâs very rare on our buy list to find a, a stock, which is curÂrent share price is less than half. Itâs, um, IV two, which is based on its foreÂcast EPS. So thatâs, um, uh, a pretÂty good thing and a fairÂly rare thing on that checkÂlist. for qualÂiÂty is 10 outÂta 15 or 67%.
QAB score is 0.14, which is more towards the botÂtom of the buy list than towards the top. Um, risk for this comÂpaÂny, uh, the, I think the biggest risk for anyÂone going into this comÂpaÂny is that thereâs a risk of furÂther capÂiÂtal raisÂings. So, if you donât want to be dilutÂed, you should parÂticÂiÂpate in those.
Um, not always mandaÂtoÂry that you do you go case by case, I guess, but just be aware that. you have a stake or youâre buyÂing a stake in this comÂpaÂny, it may not be the last time you were asked top it up. Uh, it has a high, a high all and susÂtainÂable, [00:51:00] susÂtainÂable cost for gold will be more senÂsiÂtive to the gold price comÂing down in some of the othÂer comÂpaÂnies in the gold minÂing secÂtor, which will have bigÂger marÂgins that they can eat into before they become stressed. itâs heavÂiÂly reliant on exploÂration this comÂpaÂny and if the explor exploÂration itâs curÂrentÂly doing doesÂnât bear fruit and then lot of wastÂed capÂiÂtal, which will be an issue, may lead to furÂther capÂiÂtal raisÂings or for the board to for acquiÂsiÂtions instead, or both on the posÂiÂtive sides.
WashÂingÂton sold. Pat saw someÂthing in this comÂpaÂny and they. PretÂty well known as a valÂue investor and um, theyâve got very good creÂdenÂtials in the area. you look at New Hope Mine, the coal mine, which has been on the list before, it was spun out of Sopas after they develÂoped it. the othÂer thing to see as a posÂiÂtive is copÂper is trendÂing on AI data cenÂter usage.
Amongst reaÂsons, gold is trendÂing as well, and the FY 25 numÂbers are much improved. So [00:52:00] thereâs a few things to like about this comÂpaÂny.
Cameron: Thank you, Tony. Just tryÂing to figÂure out. Where itâs, uh, gone since the last time you did a build book on it? Whatâd I say? It was, um, 4 37 SepÂtemÂber, 2000. Yeah, SepÂtemÂber, 2021. Share price was about dolÂlar five. Itâs now 52 cents, so it hasÂnât had a good stretch, but if you did buy it JanÂuÂary, 2024 when it was at 9 cents, youâd be very hapÂpy with it.
But yeah, itâs, itâs had a bit of a rough ride.
Tony KynasÂton: Canât
Cameron: SpeakÂing of havÂing a rough ride.
Tony KynasÂton: and, you know, capÂiÂtal raisÂings and
Cameron: Mm.
Tony KynasÂton: rest of it. So, um, it has had a rough ride and, but this year itâs been good. Itâs back on the bi.
Cameron: SpeakÂing of havÂing a rough ride, I menÂtioned that LNG [00:53:00] was Josephine and I just noticed. A couÂple of alerts popped up for WoodÂside. Just become a three point cell today. So, uh, I own that in my super and itâs, uh, posÂsiÂble and one of the light counts. So if anyÂone holds WoodÂside, uh, by the time this comes out, it may have gone back above its cell line.
Cell line is, uh, $24 17. Itâs $24 and five at the moment. So when you lisÂten to this, if you havenât already checked your alerts, if you hold WoodÂside, um, have a look and see where itâs at. I check the news. Thereâs nothÂing about WoodÂside I can see in the news. So just genÂerÂal stuff. BusiÂness as usuÂal.
Alright, now we end after hours. Tony.
Tony KynasÂton: are. Thatâs all Iâve got.
Cameron: Thank you. Tony Airs [00:54:00] resources. What have you got for me this week, Tony?
Tony KynasÂton: so not necÂesÂsarÂiÂly a book or a movie, but have you come across Calie or Poly MarÂket? The preÂdicÂtion marÂkets the trendÂing quite wideÂly in the US now.
Cameron: I think I have heard of Poly MarÂket. Yeah.
Tony KynasÂton: Yeah, so theyâre, they remind me of Bet Fair. And there, there are two sites and thereâs probÂaÂbly othÂer ones as well, which are allowÂing peoÂple to take bets on things that might hapÂpen.
Cameron: Mm-hmm.
Tony KynasÂton: IncludÂing things like, you know, whoâs gonna be the next perÂson to leave the Trump White House? Or, uh, which, which AIâs going to be ratÂed the best by the end of 2025, et cetera, et cetera.
So itâs a bit of use for this in terms of the wisÂdom of crowds and, you know, if you have a quesÂtion about where you think things might go in the macro sense, these sites might be a guide for you. Not that I use them, um, but yeah, theyâre, theyâre trendÂing. Uh, I, I canât for the life of me see that, why they arenât being regÂuÂlatÂed by like gamÂbling [00:55:00] comÂpaÂnies are âcause fair, um, which is one that I use carÂries a lot of simÂiÂlar sorts of marÂkets. marÂkets and some event marÂkets, um, cerÂtainÂly marÂket and the othÂer one are at a lot of a, a fair, a a bigÂger range of things to bet on. Some of them are quite, um, arcane, but they are takÂing bets on whoâs gonna win next, the next footÂball match and things like that. So to me is just straight out gamÂbling.
I, I canât see why theyâre not being regÂuÂlatÂed by gamÂbling comÂpaÂnies.
Cameron: Is there wisÂdom of the crowds and that sort of stuff.
Tony KynasÂton: Um, I think overÂall, yes, uh, you know, like if the, the fact that you can be an index investor and make monÂey to me says yes, but does the crowd always get it right? No. And conÂtrarÂiÂan investors are proof that the crowd doesÂnât always get it right. Um, so yeah, itâs, I think yeah, genÂerÂalÂly yes.
SpecifÂiÂcalÂly, no. And weâve talked about [00:56:00] my bets on, you know. PolitÂiÂcal outÂcomes before and how I make monÂey out of arbiÂtragÂing them. Um, and thatâs genÂerÂalÂly going against the conÂsenÂsus for what will hapÂpen and sayÂing, Hey, that just doesÂnât gel with the facts Iâm seeÂing. Um, but then, you know, evenÂtuÂalÂly that inforÂmaÂtion also makes its way into the marÂkets and the odds change.
So the, perÂhaps it was the crowds gets it right. It is an interÂestÂing debate. Um, I rememÂber going to the raceÂtrack once with someÂbody in NewÂby sayÂing, oh, itâs wisÂdom of the crowds means the favoriteâs always gonna win. And I said, no, check the odds on the favorite. If itâs three to one, that means itâs gonna win one in every three races. Um, and yes, that genÂerÂalÂly hapÂpens with favorites, so you gotÂta make sure that, um, youâre takÂing that into account before you start betÂting that way. Yeah. InterÂest but interÂestÂing, I had to play around with them. Theyâre, theyâre very interÂestÂing to have a look at if anyÂoneâs interÂest in that kind of stuff.
Cameron: What was the most interÂestÂing one that you saw?
Tony KynasÂton: Oh, I think the ones around ai, whatâs gonna be [00:57:00] like, Google GemÂiÂni was ratÂed, I think about a 75% chance of being the best and then they go into a defÂiÂnÂiÂtion of what best AI is. Itâs accordÂing to some ratÂings serÂvice that rates ai, uh, offerÂings. So I found that interÂestÂing. Um, yeah. But there were things like they were offerÂing marÂkets on what the s and p 500 would end up in.
They sort of gave three ranges. So thatâs interÂestÂing to see whether that comes to pass. They were, uh, offerÂing simÂiÂlar marÂkets on how low BitÂcoin would go and how high BitÂcoin would go. And Iâm lookÂing at it going, this is a finanÂcial, this should be a finanÂcialÂly regÂuÂlatÂed prodÂuct. Itâs a, itâs a bet on finanÂcial marÂkets, which is the same as investÂing in an ETF or takÂing a short posiÂtion on the marÂket.
So, If you want an unregÂuÂlatÂed marÂket to place your bits, go for it. But, um, uh, I think they might get regÂuÂlatÂed in time.
Cameron: I can see Iâm, Iâm, Iâm on the site now. I can see one [00:58:00] is how many tweets Elon Musk will post between DecemÂber 9th and DecemÂber 16th, 2025.
Tony KynasÂton: Well, if I was Elon Musk, Iâd take that bet and then match it and then, you know, make it fulÂfill his own propheÂcy and make some monÂey, which is one of the probÂlems with, with comÂpaÂnies like BET Fair like in AusÂtralia. AnyÂway, the betÂting agenÂcies were stopped from doing live in Mabb, what they call in marÂket bets, because, you know, if there were casÂes where a crickÂeter, you could bet on whether the next ball was gonna be a wide, and of course the gangs would pay crickÂeters to bowl a wide on the fifth ball of the third over, and then theyâd bet if you look at the betÂting activÂiÂty, thereâd be nothÂing for three ohs and a huge spike on the fifth ball.
The third over, um. with tenÂnis playÂers, you know, you could bet on whether the next serve will be an ace. Again, same sort of thing. You pay a tenÂnis playÂer to, to um, not return the serve in the, you know, fourth set of the third whatÂevÂer, third game of the fourth set or whatÂevÂer. Um, [00:59:00] so itâs, itâs, itâs corÂruptÂible, highÂly corÂruptÂible. as if Elon Musk is smart, heâll take a slice of that action and then tweet the required numÂber so he wins the bet.
Cameron: FasÂciÂnatÂing.
Tony KynasÂton: Hmm.
Cameron: Um, what else you got?
Tony KynasÂton: Uh, look, couÂple of, um, we watched the couÂple of things not and out recÂomÂmenÂdaÂtions. We watched the Knives, the New Knives Out movie, which I think is called DeadÂed WakÂing, or Dead Man WalkÂing or someÂthing like that. Or WakÂing Up the Dead. Um, and itâs, itâs not perÂfect, but it was actuÂalÂly, I thought, betÂter than the last two and much more watchÂable than the first two. More of a. Straight DetecÂtive series, uh, sorÂry, the detecÂtive stoÂry this time. Um, and, uh, just a ton of amazÂing actors in it. Um, cameos all over the place of, you know, Glen Close and, um, uh, who else was in it? David HayÂden Church. Um, Brolin. Yeah. Good, great [01:00:00] cast. We just kept lookÂing at going, oh, thatâs so and so, thatâs so and so. Um, so that was fun. Although, you know, I greatâs watchÂing Daniel Craig with long hair in the SouthÂern accent playÂing Beit Blanc, the, the southÂern genÂtleÂman from North Lanes. It just doesÂnât sit well with me. Um, but yeah, I, I liked it worth watchÂing. Um, and Iâve been readÂing Ben Eltonâs autoÂbiÂogÂraÂphy. Iâve got, I think Iâve got this thing for flawed pieces of art at the moment.
I mean, itâs, theyâre things that intrigued me the most, like the a Ben Elton fan before, um, havenât been for a while. He kind of went, I thought he went off the boil. In his latÂer years. I thought, I thought, um, black Hat was great. The young ones was great, his standup was good. Um, I thought Spark in his first couÂple of books, gridÂlocked were amazÂing. And then they became, I thought, fairÂly forÂmuÂlaÂic, but just interÂestÂing to watch his take on all that kind of going on and how he would say, oh, this got panned, or that got [01:01:00] panned. and you could take the point of view that they were rubÂbish. HowÂevÂer, you know, we did this under duress and we did that quickÂly and blah, blah blah.
And Iâm like, thatâs why they were rubÂbish. But he just kind of wasÂnât acknowlÂedgÂing that in the book. So very flawed, but um, still a great read for what was going on, you know, in that sort of EngÂlish sphere of influÂence in the Um, and onwards. You know, he became friends of McCartÂney and George HarÂriÂson and, um, fry, and LauÂrie and Emma ThompÂson and all those.
So yeah. Good read.
Cameron: Well, speakÂing of that, I watched a couÂple of episodes of the Alien Earth Series since you recÂomÂmendÂed it. Um, and Iâm enjoyÂing it, but I was so hapÂpy to see AdriÂan EdmondÂson
Tony KynasÂton: Yes.
Cameron: in it. Heâs fanÂtasÂtic. I was like, holy shit. Is that eight? Thatâs Vivian.
Tony KynasÂton: Yeah.
Cameron: I havenât seen him in anyÂthing since. Um, Rick May [01:02:00] sort of died and his, uh, did his, uh.
FunerÂal or the obit or whatÂevÂer he did for him on stage, um, which was great. But yeah, itâs terÂrifÂic to see him in a seriÂous role.
Tony KynasÂton: Heâs a good actor, isnât he?
Cameron: He doesÂnât have a lot to do in it, but what he does do, heâs great, is that sort of, I donât know what heâs supÂposed to be, but some sort of conÂcilÂiary.
Tony KynasÂton: Hmm.
Cameron: And the othÂer thing Iâm enjoyÂing, Iâm enjoyÂing a lot about it, but TimÂoÂthy Olefin, Iâm a big fan of TimÂoÂthy Olefin from the DeadÂwood Days and from Go and stuff like that.
But to see, like, do you think he is supÂposed to be a Roy BatÂty esque charÂacÂter in this?
Tony KynasÂton: Or
Cameron: Theyâve kind of
Tony KynasÂton: Pat esque. Oh yeah,
Cameron: BatÂty
Tony KynasÂton: Yep.
Cameron: ERâs charÂacÂter in Blade RunÂner.
Tony KynasÂton: Yeah, yeah,
Cameron: Heâs got the hair and the manÂnerÂisms. Itâs a difÂferÂent uniÂverse, but still [01:03:00] in the RidÂley Scott.
Tony KynasÂton: Hmm.
Cameron: UniÂverse and, uh, I, I think theyâre like, well, we canât say heâs a synÂthetÂic from Blade RunÂner because we arenât makÂing Blade RunÂner, but heâs realÂly a synÂthetÂic from Blade RunÂner.
Itâs WayÂland Ani verÂsus the, what was the corÂpoÂraÂtion in that? The
Tony KynasÂton: I just keep thinkÂing
Cameron: TerÂrell TerÂrell CorÂpoÂraÂtion.
Tony KynasÂton: Yeah. Um, well, he remindÂed me more of the Lars ErickÂson charÂacÂter in, um, Ords Aliens, the secÂond one. So thereâs been a
Cameron: SimÂiÂlar.
Tony KynasÂton: charÂacÂter before. yeah,
Cameron: Yeah. But Iâm enjoyÂing it, and Iâm likÂing the fact that at least two episodes in the Xenomorph is kind of a side charÂacÂter. You donât realÂly see it much, which is how it should be. It appears, it kills everyÂbody for a few secÂonds, and then itâs gone and
Tony KynasÂton: yeah.
Cameron: more about the, the charÂacÂters and the stoÂries and all that kind of stuff, which Iâm chillÂing.
Tony KynasÂton: aliens, which are far worse than the xenomorph that come along.
Cameron: Yes. HorÂriÂfyÂing,
Tony KynasÂton: [01:04:00] Yeah. Yeah.
Cameron: SpeakÂing of horÂriÂfyÂing. Uh, so Iâve been readÂing the Bond books as I menÂtioned to you last time. So I finÂished CasiÂno Royale, which you know, very unbondÂed like it was obviÂousÂly a, you know, when he startÂed it, bond wasÂnât the bond that became the bond. It was a very sort of much more subÂtle OneNote charÂacÂter.
Um, and half the book is about bacÂcarat and then him getÂting his ball smashed under to pretÂty simÂple torÂture by lash schifrin. But the chauÂvinÂism and the misogÂyÂny is the most fasÂciÂnatÂing part of it for me. I get, I, you know, I read books in conÂjuncÂtion with GPT, so Iâm always like copyÂing lines or paraÂgraphs and putting it in GPT and going, did he just say what I think he just said, or explain the rules of rad to me?
âcause Iâm not folÂlowÂing this, uh, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But like, there was this one line where heâs fanÂtaÂsizÂing about havÂing his way with, um. [01:05:00] Uh, but at VesÂpa,
Tony KynasÂton: Hmm.
Cameron: and he talks about how sheâs so indeÂpenÂdent that each, the time they sleep, he sleeps with her, itâll have the sweet Tang of rape. And Iâm like, Iâm like, realÂly?
RealÂly? And, and thereâs a lot of that kind of chauÂvinÂisÂtic stuff in it. And then Iâm readÂing Live and Let Die, and thereâs all this Haiti and the, the Negro races are finalÂly showÂing that they have some intelÂliÂgence and all this kind of stuff. Iâm like, wow. And GPT was like, yeah. Even in 1954 when this came out, what even AmerÂiÂcan pubÂlishÂers were.
Ooh. Yeah. I donât think, uh, and they startÂed to just some subÂtle rewrites in the AmerÂiÂcan ediÂtion of it apparÂentÂly.
Tony KynasÂton: Oh, okay. DidÂnât know that.
Cameron: But, but talkÂing it through with GPT and tryÂing to underÂstand this mid fifties chauÂvinÂism, I was talkÂing to ChrisÂsy about it last night. Like there was all of this. SexÂuÂal [01:06:00] represÂsion, I think in westÂern ChrisÂtÂian sociÂeties where women were supÂposed to be virÂtuÂous, werenât supÂposed to enjoy sex, you know, where, uh, where mothÂers would tell their daughÂters on their wedÂding day that, uh, the marÂiÂtal bed they should lie back at and think of EngÂland and this kind of stuff.
And, you know, chrisi growÂing up as a MorÂmon said that they got all of that stuff too in her day. It was someÂthing to be endured, not to be enjoyed. And, um, and so thereâs this mindÂset on behalf of guys like FlemÂing that, you know, women want it when they say they donât want it. Thatâs just their reliÂgious conÂdiÂtionÂing and you just need to break through that, break it down.
They realÂly do want it. You just need to for, you know, break your way through their reliÂgious conÂdiÂtionÂing. To unleash the sexÂuÂal aniÂmal inside them, and theyâll be grateÂful. And thank you for it afterÂwards when you do it. Um, and I can [01:07:00] kind of underÂstand that from that perÂspecÂtive. Itâs shockÂing to read in 2025, but try to underÂstand how that was, what, what his mindÂset was, how that was acceptÂable, uh, to eduÂcatÂed, litÂerÂate men in the fifties.
And, and I assume women too.
Tony KynasÂton: it could also have been writÂten for shock valÂue too. I mean, I, I dunÂno if it was, um, because
Cameron: I asked GPT about that.
Tony KynasÂton: read FlemÂingâs autoÂbiÂogÂraÂphy and he was very sexÂist and misogÂyÂnist it.
Cameron: Well, I asked you, I sent you a thing on that. âcause I asked GPT after our last episode and it was like, no, no, this is, this is exactÂly how FlemÂing thought. FlemÂing, I, FlemÂing thought the bond was, it was wish fulÂfillÂment for him. Bond. Thatâs who he wantÂed to be, right.
Tony KynasÂton: Thatâs who Bond was. Yeah. And wish fulÂfillÂment for, you know, most young men in AmerÂiÂca and EngÂland at the time, too.
Cameron: And then of course we know that ConÂnery in the eightÂies when BarÂbara WalÂter [01:08:00] interÂviewed him and he said that, you know, someÂtimes itâs okay to hit a woman if, uh, she wonât shut her mouth. Uh, you know, heâs a guy of, that was a guy of that era, you know, that, um, you know, women need to be sort of thing or two,
Tony KynasÂton: No,
Cameron: wonât shut up.
Tony KynasÂton: youâre destroyÂing all my heroes, cam.
Cameron: Well,
Tony KynasÂton: I
Cameron: I
Tony KynasÂton: when I read, read them from end to end like you are doing now, back in the eightÂies, it, it, it didÂnât cringe, it didÂnât strike me as being over the top. It was, it was, I guess it was smack bang in the midÂdle of the Roger Moore bonds.
It was all about sex and betÂting peoÂple and things like that. And I just read it as being a male fanÂtaÂsy. Um,
Cameron: nevÂer had a fanÂtaÂsy to get the sweet of.
Tony KynasÂton: true. No, but, you know, being the, being the secret agent, runÂning around the
Cameron: Yeah,
Tony KynasÂton: world, betÂting the, the heroÂin, all
Cameron: sure. Yeah, I get that. Um, you know, and heâs, heâs in this, what Iâm [01:09:00] readÂing now, he is in New York to chase down Mr. Big, and he is being put up at the fanÂciÂest hotels and, you know, he is livÂing the life of a bilÂlionÂaire. And Iâm like, realÂly? I donât think thatâs how MI six agents travÂel realÂly. I think theyâre on a budÂget.
Tony KynasÂton: Yeah,
Cameron: But anyÂway, So that, um, yeah. Uh, what else? Thatâs about it. NothÂing else to report realÂly.
Tony KynasÂton: if you got it, but did you see the, um, I sent you last night, uh, via MesÂsenÂger, um, of
Cameron: No,
Tony KynasÂton: of Tom BakÂer?
Cameron: no.
Tony KynasÂton: Oh, itâs fanÂtasÂtic. Itâs, itâs, um, looks from his docÂtor who days, but heâs, the phoÂtoÂgraph is him standÂing at the bar and heâs writÂten this surÂreÂalÂist. Almost tongue in, well, probÂaÂbly is tongue in cheek, but the surÂreÂalÂist, um, 24 hours of what his life is about. You know, uh, wakÂing up at 6:00 [01:10:00] AM because he fell over âcause he was too tired to go to bed. And then, you know, just getÂting up, havÂing a, havÂing a shot of whiskey and then going into do his voiceover work and just goes on and on from there. Itâs, itâs, itâs a, I just loved it when I read it. Itâs fanÂtasÂtic.
Cameron: I look forÂward to readÂing that. Uh, Tom BakÂer, Iâve got a Tom BakÂer, you know, action figÂure someÂwhere in my office. I, yeah. Tom BakÂer and Carl Sagan. I was tryÂing to show Fox Carl Saganâs CosÂmos the othÂer day. Itâs like, like Luke SkyÂwalkÂer. Tom BakÂer and Carl Sagan were probÂaÂbly my three heroes when I was Foxâs age when I was 12.
Uh, and Bruce Lee, one of them.
Tony KynasÂton: Uh,
Cameron: Yeah.
Tony KynasÂton: well, I couldÂnât think of
Cameron: Okay.
Tony KynasÂton: as he might. I think we were Do My Hero when I was 12.
Cameron: Well, about to go do the US Show, uh, where Iâm going to be talkÂing about the man that launched AsiÂmov SciÂence FicÂtion [01:11:00] magÂaÂzine in the 1970s.
Tony KynasÂton: or astoundÂing or,
Cameron: It was called AsiÂmov SciÂence FicÂtion.
Tony KynasÂton: okay, cool. Canât
Cameron: Yeah. Yeah, Iâll bet you like that. All right. Thanks Tony. Have a good week everyÂone.
Tony KynasÂton: you. Oh, hapÂpy ChristÂmas. I wonât be here next week

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