QAV AU 849 — Shake the Tree and Let the Nuts Fall Out

 

Cameron: [00:00:00] to QAV Tony, episode 8 49 QAV Aus­tralia. It is the ninth Decre What’s new with you? TK in the zoo.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, just liv­ing in par­adise. It’s love­ly down here today, play­ing golf in the evenings when the course is

Cameron: me

Tony Kynas­ton: emp­ty. Mm.

Cameron: Oh, I think twice.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, it’s good.

I am not, can’t stand Phil Collins.

Cameron: Mm.

Tony Kynas­ton: I, I read there was, I saw some­thing on, I saw some­thing on SNL Sor­ry to inter­rupt. Recent­ly, where he is been kicked out of his home by his ex-wife and he’s now liv­ing in a Stu Stu stu­dio apart­ment.

Cameron: Nice. Okay.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: Did­n’t he, do you remem­ber when he sort of told one of his wives he was get­ting divorced by fax

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Yeah. You had that one. You had that one album I [00:01:00] did­n’t mind. Or the sin­gles Any­way. You Can’t Hur­ry. Love, which, which was kind of a Motown song. That was good. Yeah.

Cameron: His first solo album was good. I liked his first solo album and come some of the Gen­e­sis albums after Peter Gabrielle left, like. what­ev­er album that’s on. Um, yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: I nev­er liked Gen­e­sis either.

Cameron: ear­ly sev­en­ties, late sev­en­ties gen­e­sis? No.

Tony Kynas­ton: No, I guess they were, they were always just like a hang­over from the worst excess­es of, uh, prog rock for me.

Cameron: prog rock. Uh, Bri­an Eno card of the day from Bri­an Eno’s. Um, oblique Strate­gies, which I found in a draw, incon­sis­ten­cy prin­ci­ple. What does that bring to mind for you? Tony

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, I dun­no, the mar­kets

incon­sis­tent.

Cameron: my, Tik­Tok strat­e­gy, which is incon­sis­ten­cy. I

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: Um, [00:02:00] well, kind of a weird week on the mar­ket. Tony, um, had to do some trad­ing. That’s what made it weird

Tony Kynas­ton: Wow.

Cameron: Had to sell cog erode both from light port­fo­lios and erode from, um, the dum­my port­fo­lio yes­ter­day after their big. Ker­fuf­fles in recent months with the restat­ing of their lack of, of get­ting out­ta the US mar­ket or de-empha­siz­ing the US mar­ket and their

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: and it’s con it has not, uh, improved since then. And they final­ly broke a cell trig­ger, so I had to let them go and replaced them with Euros, Hart­ley. EZL Bowl Boom Logis­tics and Fri­days FRI, which is Fin­bar I

Tony Kynas­ton: Fin­bar. Yeah.

Cameron: Yeah. I dun­no [00:03:00] why it’s FRI should be FIN, but it’s FRI, Fin­bar Resources Indus­tries, some­thing Inc. I dun­no. And, um, a bunch of stocks to my super port­fo­lio too, because there was a lot of ASX 300 com­pa­nies on the buy list this week. One of which you are going to talk about in your pulled pork lat­er on,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Okay.

Cameron: which is good. Uh, let me, let me just look at the port­fo­lios and uh, then we’re going to talk about our own port­fo­lios too, because Ed wants to know, uh, the dum­my port­fo­lio. In the, uh, all time? Well, yeah, all time. Not includ­ing the actu­al start date, but, well, yeah, like the first stock, not ful­ly. Invest­ed, but if I just go from the first trade, it’s uh, up 16% per annum ver­sus the index up 8.76. If I just, if I took it from a lit­tle bit lat­er when it was ful­ly invest­ed, it’d prob­a­bly be bet­ter than that [00:04:00] last 30 days. Uh, stom­ach port­fo­lio is down 0.68% ver­sus the index down 1.55 Cur­rent cal­en­dar year. Dum­my port­fo­lio is up 26.3 ver­sus the index up 9.5, so it’s doing pret­ty good. The light port­fo­lio, uh, for the year to date is up 33.3 ver­sus 9.5. That’s not too shab­by. Um, last 30 days up, 1.79 ver­sus neg­a­tive 1.5 for the mar­ket and all time dum­my port­fo­lio group is up 19.8 ver­sus 10.2. So that’s pret­ty

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: And because wants to know super [00:05:00] port­fo­lio. the cur­rent cal­en­dar year is up 23% ver­sus 9.54. Drop back a bit for some rea­son. Dun­no what, what’s, what’s hurt me here?

Dun­no. It was up a bit high­er by the looks of it. Um, a day ago, three days ago it was up 27. Some­thing’s dropped in the last week. And, uh, last, yeah, so that’s my super port­fo­lio for the cal­en­dar year, for the finan­cial year. It’s, uh, up 13 and a half ver­sus 2.6 for the index, it’s come back a lot. It was, again, it was up like 19.6 cou­ple of days ago.

Some­thing’s real­ly fall­en this week. What’s, what has hurt at this last sev­en days? What’s come, what’s, what’s, what’s, oh. WH by the looks of it. Oh, what hap­pened to N‑W-H-N-W‑H has fall­en off a cliff. Uh, dun­no why. Any­way, [00:06:00] so that’s that. So that’s that.

Tony Kynas­ton: I thought NWH was doing well. I keep read­ing about it being Reach­ing a new high.

Cameron: was

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Ah, okay.

Cameron: dun­no why yet had­n’t, has­n’t shown up on a cell alert.

So, I mean, I think it’s still up like gajil­lion per­cent

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, yeah.

price is 2 38. Cur­rent price is 5 0 5, so

Cameron: Wow.

Tony Kynas­ton: it’s down 10%

recent­ly.

Cameron: it at, uh, in May at $2 81, and it’s as you said, 5.05. So it’s doing okay, but it’s dropped off a bit. off six or 7%, uh, today, 6.48% today, I think. Any who, what about you, Tony, what have you. Uh, I know that you’ve got this in your notes.

Tony Kynas­ton: it’s been a very kind,

Cameron: year.

Tony Kynas­ton: very kind year for me. Um, I’m up 35.6%. For the cal­en­dar year,

Cameron: you dirty, dirty dog.

Tony Kynas­ton: which is,

Cameron: how many [00:07:00] stocks do you hold? Like five or six these days.

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah, no, it’s sev­en or eight. Eight I think.

Cameron: Right.

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah, so the big per­for­mance for me have been Par­en­ti and Perseus both doing real­ly well. A n Z’s been good, super retail’s been up and down, but main­ly up and pay­ing a good div­i­dend. Uh, QBs gone up and come back, so it’s actu­al­ly get­ting pret­ty close to a cell so that.

Might be some­thing I sell recent­ly, but yeah, that’s the big dri­vers have been the gold min­er and, um, par­en­ti, uh, driller to the gold min­ers.

Cameron: Yeah, mine. My top per­form­ers are PRU up 107%. NWH is up 84 PRN up 48 SSM 47. Tel­stra up 29.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: My God. NZ up 25 Qan­tas up 17. So yeah, I think Ed was ask­ing because he said when we talk about the dum­my and the light port­fo­lios, they’re most­ly low cap stocks,

Tony Kynas­ton: [00:08:00] Right.

Cameron: He want­ed to know how the big end of town was going and, uh, going okay

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: of it.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep. And I think it’s fair to say the small cap mar­ket has done bet­ter than the large cap mar­ket this year as well.

Cameron: Right.

Tony Kynas­ton: From mem­o­ry, I read some­where, it’s up about 15% this cal­en­dar year too. So it’s been doing well.

Cameron: And in our US show, I’m gonna talk about sim­i­lar sto­ries com­ing out­ta the us. Actu­al­ly, small­er cap stocks seem to be doing bet­ter. All the val­ue stocks, as they call them,

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: are doing bet­ter than the big end of town at the moment. But, um, any­way, we’ll get to that in the next show.

Tony Kynas­ton: And we had a look, remem­ber we had a look at that. There was an arti­cle in the Fin. Halfway through this year, I think where some­one had done some analy­sis to say that because of all the pas­sive invest­ing and fund man­agers hug­ging the index, that large cap stocks were get­ting index local returns, but all the val­ue was in the small cap space, which was a stock pick­ers mar­ket.

So if you can pick VI out of the small caps, you’re get­ting good returns, which is what a lot of our dum­my port­fo­lio does.

Cameron: [00:09:00] Yeah. Well, it’s good to see that it still works. Tony. Um, cou­ple of news sto­ries. I’ve got Aris Resources. They’re on the buy list this week. A IS, they’re Robert Mil­ner, our old friend from, so Pats was a non-exec­u­tive direc­tor and he has resigned for per­son­al rea­sons. It’s kind of weird, isn’t it? What else has he resigned from for per­son­al rea­sons?

Just this,

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, A, accord­ing to the per­son who point­ed it out to us, um, yes. He has­n’t resigned from any­thing else. Um, I could­n’t find any more detail about why, and, and I think it also hap­pened like two days after he was reelect­ed to the board. So it’s a very,

Cameron: this out to us?

Tony Kynas­ton: oh

Cameron: search this

Tony Kynas­ton: no, it was in,

Cameron: us a thing?

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah, it was a ques­tion. I’ll, I’ll, I’ll find it for you.

Hang on. [00:10:00] You from you. It’s in your, uh, orig­i­nal email and it is Trent. Yes. Yes. Trent said, um, poten­tial­ly Rob nor there is very busy merg­ing sole pat­son with Brick­works, but seems weird to run for reelec­tion and then cite per­son­al rea­sons a week lat­er and not step down from any oth­er boards. Uh, board roles as he has.

Uh, also the chair­man­ship of, so Pats new Hope, Brick­works, NED I’m not sure who that is. NTPG. So is it the red flag? Um,

Cameron: Hmm. What do you think?

Tony Kynas­ton: dun­no, it’s a strange one, isn’t it? I, he’s, he’s on the board of that com­pa­ny because of var­i­ous resources because. So Pat­son zoned some­thing like, or more than 30% of the com­pa­ny. So they’re a big share­hold­er.

So nor­mal­ly, um, in an order­ly tran­si­tion, he would’ve just nom­i­nat­ed some­one else from so Pats to take his place like [00:11:00] the CEO or the CIO or some­one like that at so Pat’s. Um, so that might hap­pen. That would be my expect­ed out­come. But, um, yeah, it’s a mys­tery. I don’t know much more about it.

Cameron: Hmm. Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: I don’t think it’s a red flag.

And if, if I don’t own the shares and if I did in like a sit­u­a­tion where it’s, I’ve got a ques­tion mark over it like this, I’d just look at the sen­ti­ment. The sen­ti­ment for areas are still pret­ty good.

Cameron: Right. Hmm. Okay. Inter­est­ing though.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

Cameron: I don’t think,

Tony Kynas­ton: it’s a watch the space, I think, isn’t it?

Cameron: Just look­ing to see if, uh, it’s in any of my port­fo­lios, it is not, uh, news from anoth­er com­pa­ny that, uh, isn’t on the buy list this week, but has been recent­ly ear­ly Pay EP y They’ve announced the mar­ket buy­back pro­gram. Um, which we are now giv­ing com­pa­nies a, a score for if they fol­low through and

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

[00:12:00] we’ll,

we’ll check ’em next year.

Cameron: Yeah. But, uh, we like to see this, we like to see announce­ments of these sorts of

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: update on its ongo­ing on mar­ket buy­back pro­gram. so it’s ongo­ing with a total of 2,407 two, sor­ry, let me start that again.

Total of. 247,998. Ordi­nary ful­ly paid secu­ri­ties bought back on the pre­vi­ous day to the cumu­la­tive total of 7,075,887 secu­ri­ties. This buy­back ini­tia­tive as part of the com­pa­ny’s strat­e­gy to opti­mize its cap­i­tal struc­ture and poten­tial­ly enhance share­hold­er val­ue in the finan­cial ser­vices indus­try, offer­ing solu­tions such as invoice financ­ing and equip­ment financ­ing. Cur­rent mar­ket cap 55.68 mil­lion, aver­age trad­ing vol­ume 171,000 shares. So, uh, I dun­no what that buy­back is as a per­cent­age. It’s prob­a­bly in my [00:13:00] spread­sheet some­where, but I can’t be both­ered dig­ging it up.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, it’s prob­a­bly gonna be 10% or less, I think. Um, yeah, usu­al­ly I have to, I, I can’t recall what the cor­po­ra­tion’s law says exact­ly, but I think any­thing more than that, they’ll have to poten­tial­ly get share­hold­er approval for, I could be wrong.

Cameron: And what are, what are we scor­ing for? Is it 5% greater

Tony Kynas­ton: Yes. If there’s less than 5% of the, well, if there’s less than 95% of the shares in suc­ces­sive years. So I am look­ing at that right now, and at the moment there’s 269 odd mil­lion shares, and at the start of, or at the last report­ed peri­od, it was 272 mil­lion. So they’re not quite at the 5% thresh­old yet.

Cameron: Right. Oth­er news, um, I was look­ing at my track­ing sheet the oth­er day and I saw that a MA was up 850%. And I thought, well, that’s pret­ty good. [00:14:00] Um, then I real­ized they had a one for 10 con­sol­i­da­tion in Novem­ber. Uh. So that’s still good, but not that good. But they’re still up quite a bit, it’s just a note for any­one out there that is hold­ing a MA.

Just your bro­ker or your track­er like share side or Navexa prob­a­bly fac­tored it in. But when I went to Navexa, had put the con­sol­i­da­tion in, but it had­n’t worked and it was still show­ing that it was up 850% and screw­ing

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: So I’d to delete it, re-add it, then wait 10 min­utes for it to click through. But, uh, there you go. So I think bought ’em for 6.20 cents and now they’re trad­ing at 85 cents. So I had to adjust the orig­i­nal pur­chase price up to 62 cents. Still, still? Okay.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: Uh, I’ve got a cou­ple of, um, announce­ments. [00:15:00] Uh, just peo­ple who have giv­en me some feed­back on how the port­fo­lios are doing. Um, Jer­ry said, port­fo­lio’s going great.

First cou­ple of years were rough, but this year has been awe­some. Fair­ly con­cen­trat­ed at the moment, eight QAV stocks, but the aver­age gain across those eight since they bought them as rough­ly 90%. Good job, Jer­ry. Tim. Year to date, I’m up 50%, but was as high as 55%. Incred­i­ble. may not like it, but I do have a mix­ture of both US and Aussie stocks, all QAV.

Tony Kynas­ton: I don’t care.

Cameron: Tony does­n’t care what.

Tony Kynas­ton: Good luck to you. Well done.

Cameron: Yeah, I think the biggest change was to auto­mate my process­es and remove the emo­tion. Very free­ing. In 12 months of doing that, I’ve turned 6% returns into my cur­rent posi­tion. I under­stand it’s been a mas­sive year on the mar­ket, and so I may have still had the same results, but I always got stuck on sell. Automat­ing. This isn’t per­fect [00:16:00] all the time, but it’s work­ing for me and I’ll track it to see what hap­pens. I’ve also found I’m doing a lot less buy­ing. Again, this may just be due to the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tions. Any­how, as always, many thanks to you and tk. Thank you, Tim.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, thanks Tim.

Cameron: Look at it and it, you know, I think the mar­ket is obvi­ous­ly hav­ing a great year here and in the US and. Every­one’s prob­a­bly doing pret­ty well if you’ve got any sort of a sys­tem. Uh, our sys­tem is just one of many kinds of sys­tems, I guess, that, that peo­ple have. But I think the thing that I, I just wan­na remind peo­ple that are lis­ten­ing today is, you know, there will, this won’t last for­ev­er. We’ve lived through a cou­ple of mar­ket cycles in the his­to­ry of the pod­cast, and you’ve lived through many more. And what I’ve come to believe is that you just keep fol­low­ing the sys­tem. When the mar­ket turns down [00:17:00] and you know we’ll have, we can have an aver­age year or a bad year, or we had a cou­ple of bad years, and you just fol­low­ing it. Don’t pan­ic, just keep buy­ing and sell­ing. You might do more sell­ing, more buy­ing at dif­fer­ent stages.

It might go from like late­ly, you know, I’ve. rarely the last six months had to sell or buy any­thing. Every­thing’s just been track­ing along. But like this week I had to sell a few things. But, uh, you just keep the sys­tem, doing what it tells you to do, leave the emo­tion out of it, ’cause it will even­tu­al­ly turn around again and then things will be great. Again, and then the cycle will turn and it’ll suck for a bit and then it’ll be great. you just, you’ve said to me over the years, just what it does. The mar­ket goes up, the mar­ket goes down, cycles come, cycles go. Just ignore the noise, fol­low the sys­tem. And I’ve seen it play out now at least two or three times in six years or what­ev­er it is.

We’ve been doing the show near­ly sev­en years.

Tony Kynas­ton: [00:18:00] Yeah, cor­rect. And, and you know, we can, does­n’t mean the sys­tem’s gonna be locked in con­crete for the, the rest of our lives, we can make changes to the sys­tems if we have expe­ri­ence to back it up. But it’s designed if the mar­ket’s going down, it’s designed to start sell­ing and get­ting us out before it hits the bot­tom.

And then it’s designed to buy us back in on the way up, regard­less of the rea­sons, regard­less of the time span between those two things. It just, yeah, it, it. Every­one needs a sys­tem. And, and my expe­ri­ence is even peo­ple who say they’ve got sys­tems don’t real­ly have a full sys­tem. So, you know, when some­one talks to me about their sys­tem, I always test them.

What’s your, what’s your rea­son for sell­ing? What’s your, when do you buy, when do you sell? Um, you know, what, do you have a stop-loss? What? Just try and go through each stage of the sys­tem that we use. Um, and it does­n’t mat­ter whether they’re Bit­coin traders, as long as they’ve got. A ful­ly fledged sys­tem, um, it’s, it’s a lot bet­ter than going in blind and [00:19:00] wing­ing it and mak­ing it up as you go.

Because if you do that every time some­thing new comes up and the mar­ket throws you a new ques­tion every day, um, you’ve got­ta decide what the answer is from first prin­ci­ples. Instead of say­ing, no, I’ve thought about this and I’ve test­ed it, and this is what we do in this sit­u­a­tion.

Cameron: Yeah. Yeah. And. You know, when you say the mar­ket throws you a new thing every day, I mean, if you’re pay­ing atten­tion to it, I mean, for me, the, one of the great things about the sys­tem is don’t need to pay much atten­tion to the mar­ket

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, sure.

Cameron: macro­eco­nom­ic fac­tors, all that kin­da

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron: All I need to pay atten­tion to is my alerts. My alert goes off, I sell some­thing, replace it, go back to sleep, and uh, wait for the next alert. Right? It’s real­ly that of Bit­coin, um, not doing great.

Tony Kynas­ton: No.

Cameron: there you go. That’s it. Um,

Tony Kynas­ton: And speak­ing of,

speak­ing of the mar­ket, throw­ing us curve balls, the RBAs [00:20:00] meet­ing at the moment too. So

we’ll know in an hour

whether inter­est rates are up or on hold or down or what­ev­er. And as you said, it does­n’t real­ly wor­ry us. What­ev­er hap­pens, we will respond to.

Cameron: All right. Well, that’s all I got for today. Tk, what you got?

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, just one arti­cle I want­ed to cov­er on Perseus Min­ing. So again, one of the. Cor­ner­stones of my port­fo­lio. Inter­est­ing sit­u­a­tion. They, they’ve owned a stake in a com­pa­ny called Pre­dic­tive Dis­cov­ery, which is anoth­er African gold min­er, and there was a takeover offer, lobbed for this busi­ness. And then Perseus has joined the fray and they, they’re now offer­ing a, a takeover for the busi­ness as well.

Um. The, the good things about it are that, uh, it’s also African based. Per­cys, of course is a West African gold min­er. They don’t have any­thing though in Guinea, which is where the [00:21:00] pre­dic­tive dis­cov­ery gold mine is based. So it will give them, uh, well the broad, their expo­sure in Africa to a new juris­dic­tion.

And as we know, um, there can be some volatile. Uh, sov­er­eign risk for oper­at­ing in Africa, or although as the out­go­ing CEO point­ed out when he retired, that, um, Aus­tralia is just as bad, if not worse, in terms of approvals for mines as the West African gov­ern­ments can be. So again, it’s a watch this space, um, to see whether.

Uh, west African resources can get this at a decent price and or whether the, um, oth­er bid­ding part­ners raise their price. The kind of mar­ket analy­sis on this is that the com­pet­ing, um, offer prob­a­bly won’t get raised because, uh, you know, the. Per, um, Perseus has like a 30% stake in this com­pa­ny, so it’s unlike­ly to accept a high­er offer from some­one else when it’s lob­by­ing on its own.

So, uh, yeah, we’ll see what hap­pens, but, um, Per­cys could [00:22:00] well pick up anoth­er gold mine in Africa soon.

Cameron: Well, hope­ful­ly that’s a good thing

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: and nobody ends up being a guest of the gov­ern­ment.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

What else have I got? Uh. Pulled pork. Uh, yeah, on select har­vest is the only oth­er thing I’ve got. But I think you’ve got some oth­er ques­tions too. Have you, do you have ques­tions? No.

Cameron: so. No, that was it.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay. Just Trent.

Cameron: Just Trent.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay.

Cameron: I, I am, uh, dis­claim­ing that I added SHV to my super port­fo­lio yes­ter­day. So before I knew you were doing a pulled pork­er on it, but, uh, there you go.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, and I’ve owned, I don’t own them at the moment, but I’ve owned them over the years. Um, they’ve been around for,

okay, biggest, biggest almond man­u­fac­tur­er, biggest almond farmer and exporter in Aus­tralia. Uh,

Cameron: eat. A crap ton of almonds every week. So I, I’ve [00:23:00] been sup­port­ing them, I guess.

Tony Kynas­ton: you should, uh, should brought to them for a dis­count.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: And that’s, and that’s actu­al­ly an indi­ca­tion of what they’re say­ing, that, uh, peo­ple are cot­ton­ing onto the health ben­e­fit of almonds and the mar­ket’s grow­ing just for almond usage in gen­er­al, they’re say­ing it’s get­ting about five to 7% CAGR per annum.

Um, I, I know that Alex often has an almond lat­te. Um, I’ll often throw a few almond flakes into my cook­ing. So yeah, it’s, it’s, it’s rea­son­ably healthy for you, I guess. I dun­no what the long-term ben­e­fits are, but.

Cameron: I saw a Tik­Tok. There’s the guy. Have you seen, you may, I don’t know if you’ve seen, there’s a guy, um, who’s done a series on the Blue Zones on Net­flix. Some

Tony Kynas­ton: No.

Cameron: in long, healthy liv­ing, can’t remem­ber his name, but I fol­low him on Tik­Tok. He did a video the oth­er day say­ing, actu­al­ly, almonds are real­ly bad for you.

After all, we’ve dis­cov­ered that there’s this thing in almonds. [00:24:00] That he goes, now I regret all the almonds that I’ve, almonds and spinach, the two things

Tony Kynas­ton: What?

Cameron: We have in our two, two of the things we have in our green smooth­ies every day. He said, actu­al­ly, it turns out, uh, they’re real­ly, real­ly bad for you.

So, and I was like, screw it. I’m eat­ing almonds any­way because I like them. But, uh,

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, I remem­ber,

Cameron: is good for you, Tony. That’s the,

Tony Kynas­ton: well, it.

Cameron: Noth­ing is good for

Tony Kynas­ton: It does change, does­n’t it? Um, which I guess is what sci­ence does. But yeah,

Cameron: Yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: no, I’ve, you know, you, you and I have both lived long enough to hear that red wine’s good for you. Red wine’s bad for you. Cof­fee’s good for you, cof­fee’s bad for you.

Cameron: yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh,

it just goes on and on. But any­way, um, at least an extra 7% of peo­ple believe that almonds are good for you.

’cause they keep buy­ing more of them, um, every year. Uh.

Select Har­vest is one of the only list­ed agri­cul­tur­al busi­ness­es in Aus­tralia. There’s not many of them on our mar­kets, and I think one of [00:25:00] the rea­sons for that, um, is that agri­cul­tur­al busi­ness­es are fair­ly, uh, cycli­cal. So in the past, like I, I think the last time I, I owned Select Har­vest, it was quite by luck, but it went up like about 400% before I sold it.

And a quick. Peri­od of time. And the rea­son for that is because the almond mar­ket is dom­i­nat­ed by Cal­i­for­nia world­wide, they own, or they pro­duce some­thing like 80% of the almonds con­sumed in the world. Um, and Aus­tralia is sec­ond to that. Um, but uh, when I own Select Har­vest, this is going back 15 years ago, maybe, uh, there was a drought or a bush­fire or some­thing in Cal­i­for­nia, which.

Cur­tailed their yield that year and select har­vest just boomed. And then of course, things returned to nor­mal after the, the weath­er improved or got cold­er or what­ev­er it need­ed to do in Cal­i­for­nia. And um, the mar­ket, you know, went back to sta­bil­i­ty and [00:26:00] Cal­i­for­nia start­ed export­ing 80% of the wills need for almonds again.

So I think you need to bear that in mind if you’re look­ing at this stock. It’s, it’s def­i­nite­ly. Shot the lights out this year, if it’s with its, um, per­for­mance, it’s actu­al­ly ben­e­fit­ed from, um, the Trump tar­iffs, which came in and that cer­tain­ly sup­port­ed its finan­cial state­ments, at least ear­li­er in the year.

And there was an AFR. Our arti­cle in April, which stat­ed that, um, the Trump admin­is­tra­tion’s trade war has cre­at­ed many losers. The list of win­ners is some­what short­er. One of the more sur­pris­ing Aus­trali­a’s arm and indus­try, which is step­ping in to fill the void left by steep bar­ri­ers on imports from Cal­i­for­nia, the source of 80% of glob­al pro­duc­tion.

Sales of Aus­tralian Almond to Chi­na have been grow­ing for years now. Their biggest rival, the US has been locked out of a grow­ing mar­ket amid a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The sweep­ing tar­iffs announced by US Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump on [00:27:00] April two, his lib­er­a­tion day, have closed a lucra­tive mar­ket for Amer­i­can farm­ers and hand­ed the advan­tage to oth­ers.

Chi­nese buy­ers faced with 145% tar­iff are instead turn­ing to Brazil­ian soy­beans, for instance. So. I, I won’t keep read­ing, but, um, basi­cal­ly back at the start of the year any­way, uh, Chi­na retal­i­at­ed to the US tar­iffs by putting 145% tar­iff on almonds. I’m not sure where that is now ’cause I, I, um, hunt­ed down a five year graph for the, for almonds, and it is still in by ter­ri­to­ry, but it has flat­tened out since the mid­dle of the year.

So I’m guess­ing that the tar­iffs have been. Either reduced or elim­i­nat­ed for Cal­i­for­nia Armand. So, um, that’s some­thing else to bear in mind, I guess, is that’s anoth­er dimen­sion for all this is what, uh, what’s hap­pen­ing with tar­iffs. But, um, all those things aside, there’s still a lot to like about this, this busi­ness.

Uh, so they oper­ate, [00:28:00] um, 15 farms across three states, although. Main­ly in the riv­er are­na, um, Mur­ray sort of dis­trict. So even though they talk about a geo­graph­i­cal­ly diverse orchard port­fo­lio, it is con­cen­trat­ed in one over­all sec­tor in Aus­tralia. Um, they also oper­ate a pro­cess­ing facil­i­ty. Which, uh, they used to store to Shell, the almonds.

’cause almonds have to be shelled and back­pack them for export. Um, they export a lot domes­ti­cal­ly, but also to Chi­na, as I said, India and the Mid­dle East. Um, cou­ple of things have lined up for them this year, apart from the fact that, uh, Cal­i­for­ni­a’s tar­iffs haven’t worked for them, but also, uh. A met­ric that they track called new plant­i­ng.

So new plant­i­ngs of Mond trees are down in the US in Cal­i­for­nia. So, uh, they, Cal­i­for­nia still dom­i­nates the world, but they’re not plant­i­ng as many new trees as they have in the past. [00:29:00] And why is that impor­tant? Because it takes sev­en years for an almond tree to mature. So these, these par­tic­u­lar nut grow­ers are always plan­ning sev­en years out.

Um, so poten­tial­ly because of the tar­iffs, they stop plant­i­ng. I dun­no the rea­son, but, but, uh, their mar­ket will, um, hit a trough in about sev­en years, which will also help, uh, uh, select har­vest ’cause they’re still plant­i­ng. So, um, the oth­er thing which helps, uh, select har­vest is they have a low­er cost struc­ture.

So Cal­i­for­nia. On aver­age costs $8 70 Aus­tralian per kilo­gram to pro­duce almonds, where­as select Har­vest is $6 71. So some­thing like a 25%, uh, ben­e­fit there. So the, the, um, the kind of mar­ket dynam­ics is good for this com­pa­ny, but also they’re doing a lot to try and improve, uh, their own for­tunes. Um, before I get into their results, I’m just gonna go through a his­to­ry.

So. They were found­ed in 1978. They were list­ed on the [00:30:00] ASX orig­i­nal­ly as the Fend­er Lim­it­ed. And, but their ori­gins go back to the 19th cen­tu­ry, which, uh, saw plant­i­ngs of almond trees on the Ade­laide plains. And they, uh, they their. Their farms spanned from sort of north­west South Aus­tralia across to Grif­fith in New South Wales.

Uh, so that’s the Mur­ray Riv­er sun raise, Rive­ri­na areas, which is kind of the food bowl for Aus­tralia. Any­way, um, since the, in the six­ties and sev­en­ties, they moved, um, from the South Aus­tralian area, uh, along the Mur­ray up to the Rive­ri­na, as I said. Um, which were areas of bet­ter land and water access. And then after they did that, select har­vest grew sig­nif­i­cant­ly.

Um, as the acreages grew, they also, um, expand­ed into the pack­ag­ing and pro­cess­ing and then export­ing. So they become ver­ti­cal­ly inte­grat­ed Results for this year were good. Um, hav­ing said that, their vol­ume was down 15.7% and a [00:31:00] lot of var­i­ous rea­sons for that, but includ­ing the fact that they lost some of their yield to frost.

And, um, that’s despite, uh, an invest­ment in over 300 frost blow­ers across the farms. They still, uh, could­n’t elim­i­nate frost and lost yield because of that, which I guess is a high­light of some of the risks for, um, this type of farm­ing. Uh, even though vol­ume was down, rev­enue was up 35%. With an aver­age price of $10 18 per kilo.

Um, and their pro­duc­tion costs were large­ly flat, so that was, um, all cream for them. EBIT was up 246% or $39 mil­lion. And earn­ings per share was up a whop­ping 2932% because it was almost breakeven last year at 740 k. And this year they made 22.44. Mil­lion, uh, well, uh, cents per share, I guess is a bet­ter way of say­ing it.

Um, part of that was a gain from the sale of water rates, uh, water rights, sor­ry, of $5.8 [00:32:00] mil­lion. And, uh, net uh, reduc­tion in debt of 51%, which also low­ered their inter­est costs. And the water rights thing is, is very inter­est­ing. And I actu­al­ly have a friend who’s a, a nut farmer, not an almond farmer, but a macadamia farmer, and he talks a lot about.

Uh, trad­ing water rights along the Mur­ray. Um, so bank­ing them, keep­ing a hold of them, and then sell­ing them at the right time and buy­ing them back at the right time. So, again, anoth­er risk and dimen­sion that needs man­ag­ing for this, um, for this busi­ness. But it’s, uh, it’s, it’s good from a QAV num­bers point of view.

So it’s new on the buy list this week. A DT is rea­son­ably high. It’s just under a mil­lion dol­lars, so 966,000. Aver­age dai­ly trade stock price I’m doing the analy­sis on is $4 76, which is 86% of con­sen­sus tar­get, but above iv, one of a dol­lar 14 and just a bit above IV two of 3 85, or actu­al­ly 25% above IV two of 3 85.[00:33:00]

Net equi­ty per share is um, $3 68, so we can’t buy it for book, but book plus 30 is 4 79, so we can. Uh, buy it for just, um, just under book plus 30 no div­i­dend. The com­pa­ny tends to, um, be rea­son­ably cap­i­tal inten­sive and when it makes some mon­ey, it goes out and buys new machin­ery or buys new farms. Um, so it does­n’t pay a div­i­dend.

Stock. Doc­tor Finan­cial health and trend is strong and steady. Edia has a qual­i­ty rank­ing of 89, which is quite good, and an F score of eight out of nine, which is very good. It total score in stock, EDIA is 97, which is also very good. Uh, the p for this com­pa­ny is 21.4 times, which is not a three year low, so we can’t score it for that.

Pr/OpCaf is 5.7 times. So that’s what’s dri­ving its score. Uh, fore­cast. Earn­ings per share growth is 72%, which is good, which means growth over PE eas­i­ly meets our hur­dle of 1.5 times. It sits at [00:34:00] 3.38 times. We don’t have an own­er founder, uh, I guess it goes back a long way, this com­pa­ny, so no own­er, founder on the board man­age­ment don’t have a mean­ing­ful share­hold­ing, which kind of sur­prised me.

But, um, that’s how it is. Uh, it’s a new buy sig­nal for us, a new three PTL upturn. So that gets a point. And, uh, look­ing at its equi­ty, it has­n’t been grow­ing con­sis­tent­ly, so we can’t score it for that. All up qual­i­ty is 11 out of 16 or 69%. And the QAV score is 0.12. So it’s, it’s on the B list, but it’s towards the bot­tom of the B list.

Plen­ty of risks asso­ci­at­ed with this com­pa­ny. Um, I spoke about sea­son­al­i­ty and cer­tain­ly any sort of severe weath­er’s going to affect the yield on this com­pa­ny. And bear in mind, it’s, it’s a nut har­vester, so it only gets one, one chance to make bank dur­ing the year. Um, when they har­vest their, their nuts.

Oth­er­wise, it’s, it’s a cost cen­ter for this com­pa­ny, even though they get sales all year round as [00:35:00] they export. But, um, it, it is heav­i­ly weath­er depen­dent. Um, luck­i­ly the area is it oper­ates in is, uh, pret­ty sta­ble and have been for a long time. So that’s one way to mit­i­gate the risk. Um, the Cal­i­for­nia crop is prob­a­bly its biggest advan­tage and dis­ad­van­tage.

So, as I said before. This year, the yield and new plant­i­ngs are both down. But um, that may not last and they may turn around at some stage. Uh, it’s an agri­cul­tur­al busi­ness and it’s inter­est­ing to drill down into what its depen­den­cies are. One of them that sur­prised me when I first saw it, but it makes sense, is that they have to, um.

Uh, buy bees to pol­li­nate the, the trees. So they’re depen­dent on there being a sup­ply of bees. I think this year they import­ed bees from wa so it’s, um, that’s an inter­est­ing dimen­sion to the busi­ness and obvi­ous­ly a risk. Uh, they get insect dam­age once the, um, plants become. I’m gonna say the word ripe. I dun­no if nuts ripen, but cer­tain­ly mature.[00:36:00]

Um, they, they can be, um, attacked by insects and, uh, select Har­vest has been very proac­tive at try­ing to man­age these risks. And they’ve just invest­ed in new machines, which they call shak­ers, which is how they har­vest an almond tree. They, they shake the tree and catch the nuts as they fall. Um, but it allows ’em to har­vest quick­er and which avoids more insect dam­age that they were get­ting in the past.

And I guess, um, they’re also reliant on water rights. So at the moment they’ve been man­ag­ing that process pret­ty well and they sold some excess rights and banked that this year. But, uh, there’s always an ele­ment of, um, gov­ern­ment at play in water rights and, uh, the, the rules could change down the track, which would be a risk for them.

On the pos­i­tive side, the com­pa­ny. At the moment any­way, has, um, man­age­ment, which is very proac­tive­ly man­ag­ing these risks. Um, as I said, um, upgrades to machin­ery, um, man­age­ment of good man­age­ment of water rights, but they’re also, uh, fos­ter­ing clos­er [00:37:00] con­nec­tions to cus­tomers by cut­ting out mid­dle­men. And that’s allow­ing them to argue a bet­ter rela­tion­ship with the cus­tomers and more repeat busi­ness, but also, um, a big­ger mar­gin in their ver­ti­cal­ly inte­grat­ed busi­ness.

So that’s good. Um. And then the last thing is that, uh, as I said before, they, they do ben­e­fit when the Cal­i­for­nia crop fails, either due to drought or bush fires or this year tar­iffs for what­ev­er rea­son. So it can be a bit of roulette with this stock. Um, and they, because of their good cost struc­tures at the moment, if they do, if there is a tight­en­ing in the mar­ket, um, because sup­ply is dri­ven up if Cal­i­for­nia pro­duces less, and that is straight cream to the bot­tom line.

So it’s very much a sea­son­al busi­ness. Is heav­i­ly reliant on what hap­pens in Cal­i­for­nia. ’cause they’re the price mak­ers and uh, it’s, it’s fair­ly cycli­cal. Cycli­cal. So, um, the share price is trad­ing, uh, I think around five year lows. It just crossed its by low. But, um, to give you an [00:38:00] exam­ple of how cycli­cal can it be, I think at the start of the five year peri­od, it was trad­ing over eight bucks.

And it’s now trad­ing at, uh, 4 78. So it was trad­ing at, um, at its high point at $8 70. Um, and it’s gone all the way down to its low point of $2 90 and now it’s on the way back up and cross­ing its trend lines as a bi sig­nal. So that is Select Har­vest.

Cameron: Well see­ing as I just bought it, I hope it, uh, con­tin­ues to get back up to the $8

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: Um, good news for share­hold­ers such as myself. I just asked GPT about the almond risks. Appar­ent­ly not as bad as Tik­Tok made out, which you know, is shock­ing. Um, phyt­ic acid and oxalates that both spinach and almonds have that in cer­tain con­di­tions can reduce. Your body’s abil­i­ty to absorb things like cal­ci­um, mag­ne­sium, [00:39:00] or zinc. But GPT says, unless you, that’s all you’re eat­ing and noth­ing else, and you don’t have a pre­dis­po­si­tion to kid­ney stones and oth­er things, it’s prob­a­bly not a prob­lem. And the ben­e­fits of eat­ing almonds and spinach out­weigh the poten­tial, you know,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: pre­ven­tion of absorp­tion of those sorts of things.

So

Tony Kynas­ton: I’m shocked that I’m shocked that some­one made a Tik­Tok just for likes.

Uh

Cameron: Wow. Speak­ing of which you, when you were talk­ing about shak­ing the tree and let­ting the nuts fall out, I was like, well, that’s when I post­ed Tik­Tok about why you should­n’t buy Bit­coin or gold. It’s the same sort of thing. I just shake the tree and let the nuts fall out. All the com­ments,

Tony Kynas­ton: uh. Yeah. Right.

Cameron: you Tony. I hope, uh, we don’t get the pulled pork curse on that one. Sta­tis­ti­cal­ly speak­ing, Paul Pork’s still Okay.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

Cameron: [00:40:00] Just don’t pay atten­tion to it. Don’t

Tony Kynas­ton: do your own

Cameron: Paul Pork Too late. I already did it and bought it, so you know it’s out the way now. Well, is that after hours now, Tony?

Tony Kynas­ton: I think so. That’s all I’ve got.

Cameron: I want­ed to thank you for rec­om­mend­ing Alien Earth.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, you’ve watched it? Yeah.

Cameron: Well, I’m, I’m, I’m halfway through the first episode

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay.

Cameron: it so far. Yeah, it’s good.

Tony Kynas­ton: It is good. It gets bet­ter.

Cameron: Right. So that’s good. Um, you prob­a­bly did­n’t see this week’s episode of PL of US based on what you said last week.

Tony Kynas­ton: No, we’re gonna wait until it com­plete­ly drops now.

Cameron: Right. Well, I won’t spoil it for you then.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay, thanks.

Cameron: Casi­no Royale

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh,

fan­tas­tic.

Cameron: prob­a­bly in my twen­ties. I think when I first did

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: nov­els, late teens, ear­ly twen­ties, it should actu­al­ly be called a Begin­ner’s [00:41:00] Guide to Bac­carat, because that’s real­ly what 90% of the book is about. Uh, yeah. one of the high­lights for, for me is, uh, just how, would­n’t say misog­y­ny. Well, it is a lit­tle bit

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm

Cameron: I was talk­ing to Chris­sy about it and you know, I’m think­ing does it date it or not? Because I’m sure there’s still a lot of in cer­tain cir­cles that are misog­y­nis­tic.

Tony Kynas­ton: mm.

Cameron: the fact that he’s depict­ing a misog­y­nis­tic man is not nec­es­sar­i­ly dat­ing it.

I mean, it’s sort of shock­ing to read those thoughts out loud, but I’m sure there’s, I’m sure Don­ald Trump’s inner mono­logue is not much dif­fer­ent to James Bonds.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yes,

Cameron: his out­er mono­logue, quite often,

Tony Kynas­ton: you may have Mo.

Cameron: pig­gy and stu­pid and talk­ing about what he can grab them by and all that kind of stuff.

Tony Kynas­ton: He may have mod­eled him­self on James Bond. Well.

Cameron: [00:42:00] have

Tony Kynas­ton: When I read all the Jane’s books in my twen­ties or thir­ties, when­ev­er it was, I loved them. And, uh, you know, for the writ­ing, it’s great writ­ing. But, um, I then read Ian Flem­ing’s biog­ra­phy and I, I said to Jean, this is great. You’ve got­ta read this. And she, she put it down and said, this is the most Mabb, misog­y­nis­tic, anti-fem­i­nist thing I’ve ever read, and hat­ed it.

So there you go.

Cameron: You may have the answer to this ’cause I’ve nev­er read his mem­oirs, but I said to Chris­sy, like, I know when Oliv­er Stone made Wall Street, Gor­don Gecko was not sup­posed to be the hero, but peo­ple saw the film. Plen­ty of that gen­er­a­tion, includ­ing myself, came out of it, not nec­es­sar­i­ly think­ing he was the good guy, but want­i­ng to be a rich Wall Street, um, mover and shak­er. Uh, maybe he knew that bond was a ter­ri­ble human being and wrote him to be that, not nec­es­sar­i­ly try­ing to por­tray him as a hero, but por­tray No.

Tony Kynas­ton: No,

Cameron: Not much for that [00:43:00] the­o­ry.

Tony Kynas­ton: no. In fact,

Cameron: Flem­ing the ben­e­fit of the doubt.

Tony Kynas­ton: I, I’m sort of dredg­ing my mem­o­ries here, but it, Bob was based on a num­ber of char­ac­ters, includ­ing Flem­ing, him­self, who, who worked for the OSS. Yeah.

Cameron: But the, the misog­y­nis­tic bit,

Tony Kynas­ton: No, that was all Flem­ing.

Cameron: that was all. Okay.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. For­tu­nate­ly, or unfor­tu­nate­ly that’s, that was Flem­ing.

Cameron: well, I’ve done. A cou­ple of sto­ries on my Cold War show. Um, I can’t remem­ber the names of the guys, but they were also friends of Flem­ing and sup­pos­ed­ly part of the inspi­ra­tion for Bond. Like these guys, these World War II adven­tur­er types who worked for British Intel­li­gence, who were just go and trav­el through Afghanistan and Rus­sia and, you know, uh. Yugoslavia and para­chute in, and then go find Tito and his rev­o­lu­tion­ar­ies and try and fig­ure out how to get him on side and all this [00:44:00] kind of stuff. Um, but the oth­er, there was one quote from the book that I thought was great. He’s like, he’s very ear­ly in the book Bond. Went to his hotel room lit his 70th cig­a­rette

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

 he must have put a few out before he fin­ished them.

Cameron: Wow. cig­a­rette for the day. So any­way, yes. Inter­est­ing to read, but so far I, I’m halfway through the book. There’s no James Bondy stuff. Uh, there’s just him being a misog­y­nist and play­ing

Tony Kynas­ton: Cards.

Yeah. Right.

Cameron: So what have you been, what have you been watch­ing, read­ing, doing TK

Tony Kynas­ton: And I went to the Aus­tralian Open Golf last, uh, last Thurs­day for a day at Roy­al Mel­bourne and fol­lowed Rory Mray around. It was great. Like going to a major, yeah. World num­ber two.

Cameron: name? He sounds like some­body from Hap­py Gilmore.

Tony Kynas­ton: He was­n’t hap­py Gilmore, in fact, [00:45:00] but as a cameo. Yeah. No, he’s the world num­ber two golfer. North­ern Irish golfer. Yep. It did­n’t play too well, but he prob­a­bly, prob­a­bly not used to the sand belt cours­es, which were a bit dif­fer­ent to oth­ers in the world. But no, it was good fun. Had a great day out and um, got lots of steps in fol­low­ing the golfers round, which was great.

Caught up with some friends, which was good, and then watched it on TV after that, on Sun­day in par­tic­u­lar.

Cameron: Who won.

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, a Dan­ish guy called, um, Ras­mus, Ras­mus Peter­son, I think his name is. Yeah. It was his first win ever. So he’s a bit of an unknown place on the Euro­pean tour.

Cameron: Wow. Good for

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm. Yeah, but it’s, uh, it’s an impor­tant. I mean, the Aus­tralian Opens had a check­ered career.

It used to be con­sid­ered the fifth major back in the sort of six­ties and sev­en­ties when peo­ple like, um, Jack Nicholas and Gary Play­er would reg­u­lar­ly come out. I think Gary Play­er won like half a dozen Aus­tralian opens in his life­time. Uh, and then it went off the ball. ’cause the [00:46:00] PGA start­ed play­ing all year round.

They used to take a break. And in the sort of end of the year for Christ­mas and now they play all year round. Some, a lot of the best play­ers can’t get out here. They have to keep com­pet­ing on the PGA tour in the us. Uh, and then, uh, I guess prob­a­bly since live golf, apart from the resur­gence in golf around the world, uh, a lot of the live golfers who can’t play on the PGA and can’t get into the Mabb or into the majors because their world rank­ings have fall­en because.

Once Leiv start­ed, they could­n’t earn world rank­ing points, which is often used as the, as the qual­i­fi­ca­tion for play­ing in a golf major. So it’s kind of the way of the estab­lish­ment shut­ting out the rebels. But um, there are tour­na­ments, some tour­na­ments in the world like the Aus­tralian Open where the win­ner gets an invite to the US Mas­ters, and I think it’s the top three play­ers who haven’t already qual­i­fied get an invite to the British Open.

So there’s quite a few live golf play­ers out play­ing this tour­na­ment, which is good to see as well.

Cameron: Does [00:47:00] Greg still play or is he retired?

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, he retired a long time ago. Um, he became the CEO of Liv Golf and helped to set it up

he’s just resigned, or I think he got the boot from that this year. And he’s con­cen­trat­ing on his golf course design busi­ness.

Cameron: right.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: actu­al­ly pick up a club

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, oth­er than for social rea­sons, I, that would be it. Yeah.

Yeah.

Cameron: And how are

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: going?

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, did you get the MIMO about express deliv­ery?

Cameron: No.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay. Had it, I think it’s, it was, its first start on the Gold Coast on Sun­day and at one at 26 to one. So that was pleas­ing. Yeah.

Cameron: express deliv­ery,

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm. Could be a fluke as they often are on their first start and the train­er was­n’t aware it was gonna run as well. And while also. Played into our hands was the favorite, got scratched at the bar­ri­ers.

So, um, we did­n’t have the to beat the favorite, which, which helped [00:48:00] us. Uh, and the odds were reduced because they took the favorites share of the mar­ket out­ta the pay­outs, the deduc­tion they call it. But still, yeah. Good. Uh, good win. First up and good odds.

Cameron: Big race.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, no. Sun­day at the Gold Coast. No, not at all.

Cameron: right, right.

Tony Kynas­ton: A maid­en race.

A start­ing race. Yeah.

Cameron: Hmm. Well, that’s excit­ing for you,

Tony Kynas­ton: It was, yeah.

Cameron: what music you’ve been lis­ten­ing to this week.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, I’ve just been rehash­ing, I mean, I’ve been fol­low­ing peo­ple on, um, Face­book reels that keeps throw­ing up new ones, and recent­ly the ones I’ve been fol­low­ing have been peo­ple who. Uh, there’s one guy or cou­ple of guys who per­form in U2 cov­er bands and they will put the track on in the back­ground and then show you how to play the gui­tar part to it, which I think is real­ly quite cool and inter­est­ing.

Cameron: Nice. You play­ing any gui­tar?

Tony Kynas­ton: Haven’t played for a while.

Cameron: Hmm. [00:49:00] I pulled my gui­tar out for the first time, I think in two years, the oth­er day, and tried to. I was, I’ve been lis­ten­ing to a lot of Pink Floyd, so I was

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh yeah.

Cameron: learn a cou­ple of Pink Floyd tracks and that was it. I put it back on the wall. That’ll, that’ll be it for anoth­er cou­ple of

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. How are your fin­gers, your fin­ger­tips? I,

Cameron: Wow. Yeah. Okay. Includ­ing the one that I cut off,

Tony Kynas­ton: oh.

Cameron: a lit­tle while ago. yeah. But play­ing the elec­tric, it’s okay. It’s not like pick­ing up the acoustic and then hav­ing to rebuild the cal­lus­es.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: Um, that’s it. I think that’s all I’ve got for you, Tony. School hol­i­days. Got­ta find, fig­ure out what to do with Fox for the next six or sev­en weeks.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: School hol­i­days are crazy. I.

Tony Kynas­ton: Is he affect­ed by the, so, well he’s affect­ed by the social media band, I guess. Is that gonna actu­al­ly affect him though?

Cameron: Well, yeah, I mean, [00:50:00] yeah. we try and ban him from fa uh, YouTube any­way, but he keeps watch­ing it. So as of tomor­row, we can say it’s against the law.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron: He does­n’t care about my rules. I’m not sure how much he’s gonna care about elbow’s rules, but, uh, yeah, we’ll see. It’s inter­est­ing. I’ve been hav­ing lots of debates with the twins about, uh, the social media band.

They’re dead against it. They think it’s basi­cal­ly the end of times, think a large part of their,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, right.

Cameron: 14-year-old girls. But, uh, we’ll see what hap­pens. See how much it impacts them.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Right.

Cameron: off to LA today, he’s over there for a month. Their moth­er’s going over to spend Christ­mas in New York with the boys,

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, wow.

Cameron: they’re gonna do Christ­mas in New York for a cou­ple of weeks.

So that’s nice.

Tony Kynas­ton: a, it’s a, it’s a famous song. It’s one of my favorites too. The Fairy Tale of New York.

Cameron: it’s

Tony Kynas­ton: It, it’ll start a,

Cameron: song, [00:51:00] I,

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah,

Cameron: yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: it’ll start appear­ing again on my feeds pret­ty soon, I imag­ine.

Cameron: Yeah. Yeah, it’s a great song. Um, yeah, Hunter’s, uh, work­ing his way through his visa for over there, so if that gets approved and goes through ear­ly in the new year as he thinks it will,

Tony Kynas­ton: Wow.

Cameron: And both of my boys will be liv­ing in la which will be weird.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, I know they have to be there for work, but that’s prob­a­bly the worst place to live in the US I would’ve thought.

Cameron: They don’t have to be there. They choose to be there. I, I don’t think it, you know, been there since March or April. I don’t think it’s made any dif­fer­ence to his busi­ness at all so

Tony Kynas­ton: Real­ly?

Cameron: it’s a long, it’s a long term thing.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay.

Cameron: There’s just lots of par­ties and

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Okay.

Alright. Uh,

Cameron: and stuff like

Tony Kynas­ton: okay. Well that’s the ben­e­fit to a 20 some­thing year old’s life, isn’t it?

Cameron: Met a few celebri­ties, I guess. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: he sounds like he’s get­ting [00:52:00] tired of it already. He’s like, yeah, I’m so blase to the whole thing

Tony Kynas­ton: Sh.

Cameron: I’m 25 and I’m blase about liv­ing in Hol­ly­wood. So I guess that’s not good. Alright, well quite for a good week, Tony, every­body out there glad to hear the results are going well.

Just remem­ber when things turn around, uh.

Tony Kynas­ton: it.

Cameron: Stick with it. Yeah, the long game and, uh, we’ll go talk about the com­pa­ny. We’re gonna go talk about the FMG of Amer­i­ca today, or

Tony Kynas­ton: Yes,

Cameron: the FMG of the

Tony Kynas­ton: prob­a­bly.

Cameron: is the veil of Aus­tralia,

Tony Kynas­ton: Or Or BHP. Yeah. Yeah. Vale. Yeah.

Cameron: It’s a very vale. It’s a very um. It’s not a nice sto­ry.

Lots of, lots of dis­as­ters, lots of dead peo­ple. One of those

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh,

Cameron: the,

Tony Kynas­ton: you

too.

Cameron: Lot of, lot of dra­ma. Uh, any­way, thank you Tony. Have a

Tony Kynas­ton: All right. See [00:53:00] you.

Bernard: Q A V is a check­list-based sys­tem of val­ue invest­ing devel­oped by Tony  Khyne­ston. over 25 years. To learn more about how it works and how you can learn the sys­tem, vis­it our web­site, Q A V Pod­cast dot com dot A U.

This pod­cast is an infor­ma­tion provider and in giv­ing you prod­uct infor­ma­tion we are not mak­ing any sug­ges­tion or rec­om­men­da­tion about a par­tic­u­lar prod­uct. The infor­ma­tion has been pre­pared with­out tak­ing into account your indi­vid­ual invest­ment objec­tives, finan­cial cir­cum­stances or needs. Before you decide whether or not to acquire a par­tic­u­lar finan­cial prod­uct you should assess whether it is appro­pri­ate for you in the light of your own per­son­al cir­cum­stances, hav­ing regard to your own objec­tives, finan­cial sit­u­a­tion and needs. You may wish to obtain finan­cial advice from a suit­ably qual­i­fied advis­er before mak­ing any [00:54:00] deci­sion to acquire a finan­cial prod­uct. Please note that all infor­ma­tion about per­for­mance returns is his­tor­i­cal. Past per­for­mance should not be relied upon as an indi­ca­tor of future per­for­mance; unit prices and the val­ue of your invest­ment may fall as well as rise. The results are gen­er­al advice only and not per­son­al prod­uct advice.

Trans­paren­cy is impor­tant to us. We will always be very open and hon­est about the stocks we own. We will also always give our audi­ence advance notice when we intend to buy or sell a stock that we are going to talk about on the pod­cast. This is so we can nev­er be accused of pump­ing a stock to our own advan­tage. If we talk about a stock we cur­rent­ly own, we will make it known that we own it.

This email is autho­rised by Antho­ny  Khyne­ston. Autho­rised Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Num­ber zero zero 1 2 9 2 7 1 8 of M F & Co. Asset Man­age­ment Pro­pri­etary Lim­it­ed (A F S L five 2 zero 4 4 [00:55:00] 2).
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Quote of the day:

Experts believe there are two types of hap­pi­ness. The first is hedo­nic hap­pi­ness – that’s the sim­ple feel­ing of hap­pi­ness, and can be found in the joy of doing plea­sur­able things.

The sec­ond is hard­er to achieve: this is eudai­mon­ic hap­pi­ness. _Eudaimonia_ is the ancient Greek term for a sense of a life well-lived. This is derived from a sense of pur­pose.