QAV AU 846 — Fortune Favours the Patient

 

Cameron: [00:00:00] Wel­come back to QAV Aus­tralia. Tony Eson, episode 8 46. It’s the 18th of Novem­ber, 2025. How you doing

tk,

Tony Kynas­ton: well, thank you. How are you?

Cameron: dude, I am, I’m good. But, uh, last week, man, I don’t know some­thing’s going on. I’ll see how I go at kung fu tonight, but last week I’d get on the mat and five min­utes into the car­dio and I’d be, I’d be like wrecked, uh, drag­ging my ass around for the next hour or two or three.

Dun­no what was going on. Any­way, hope­ful­ly it was just a bug of some sort.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm?

Cameron: Um, but yeah, you know, you just have those days or it was a few days when I was just like, oh my God, what’s wrong with me? You know, like nor­mal­ly I’m, you know, king of the hill last week I was just, had to walk off and sit on the side and yeah.

Thought I was gonna pass out. Dun­no what was wrong with me. Uh, for the record, got a nice email from one of [00:01:00] our long­time sub­scribers, Andy this morn­ing said, con­grat­u­la­tions on your black belt. Not a black belt. Just wan­na put that, I dun­no how that got out there yet. My next grad­ing is the black, our next grad­ing, Chris­sy.

Mine is the black belt. We’re not black belts yet. We’re just, I had a black eye that’s not a black belt. You should­n’t con­fuse the two few black eyes on the way to the black belt. But, uh, yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: what hap­pens when you both get black belts around your place? Is it just like, what’s that? What was that? Brad Pitt and Angela in Rol­ley movie, Mr. And

Cameron: Mr. And Mrs. Smith. Yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: Is it like that? Here I’ll cut

Cameron: well, yeah, yeah, yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: I got it

Cameron: yeah. No, we’re both just sort of try­ing to keep ahead of Fox.

Tony Kynas­ton: right.

Cameron: his goal is to have a black belt. By the time he’s 16, there’s anoth­er four to five years. So,

Tony Kynas­ton: It’s every boy’s dream to take on their father, isn’t it?

Cameron: yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: the

Cameron: he’s already, he’s already try­ing to do it, so, yeah. Hey, um, speak­ing of, uh, long term dis­ci­pline, man, QAV light, [00:02:00] absolute­ly killing it. Um, I did a light update yes­ter­day and I said, for­tune favors the patient and the dis­ci­plines not for­tune favors the bold as I used to quote Napoleon, but I think it was a, uh, it was a Roman poet Ter­rence, who first said that

Tony Kynas­ton: Ah,

Cameron: in his play, Foria, because the QAV Lights port­fo­lios are killing it at the moment. Tony, um, let me just bring up,

Tony Kynas­ton: I thought there was for­tune Favors The Brave, which is the SA British SAS mod­el.

Cameron: yeah, well they just bor­rowed that off. Napoleon,

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh.

Cameron: uh, I dun­no, the, uh, QAV Light Group. All times. That’s the four port­fo­lios all bun­dled togeth­er. Uh, as of right now, today, up 19.999% per annum [00:03:00] ver­sus the SPDR 200, up 10 point 10%. So dou­ble mar­ket for the light group port­fo­lios all time. Uh, this cal­en­dar year up 32.83% ver­sus the SPDR up eight and a half per­cent.

Tony Kynas­ton: That’ll help.

Cameron: It will help. Um, and as well, you know, I’m sure all of our lis­ten­ers know the light port­fo­lios were just in the dogs up until the mid­dle of this year, hon­est­ly. Well, no, they’re in the dogs. A cou­ple of years ago, by the mid­dle of this year, they’d caught up. And then, and I’ve heard you say this so many times over the years, you’ll, you know,

Tony Kynas­ton: And yet you

Cameron: it just,

Tony Kynas­ton: when it

Cameron: no, it just takes six months.

And, and you know, I, as I said in, I said to our sub­scribers, look, you know, [00:04:00] I know we’ll have tough times. The mar­ket’s gonna have a cor­rec­tion. It’s already have in a cor­rec­tion we’ll talk to about in a minute, accord­ing to some peo­ple. But you know, if I look at the dum­my port­fo­lio, once we got that lead, uh, after COVID, even though it’s come down, it sort of main­tained a healthy mar­gin between the index.

Like it lost a lit­tle bit com­ing out of, you know, that, that into that 22 peri­od, 2022 peri­od. But it’s still main­tained a good lead. Um, if I look at the indi­vid­ual port­fo­lios, which I haven’t done yet, so this could be a big shock, the 2, 2, 1 port­fo­lio, that was the first one that I start­ed at, begin­ning of 2022, that at one point.

In 20, mid­dle of 2023 was down 10% ver­sus the SPDR, which was up five. So it was under­per­form­ing by 15%. It’s ahead now, but just it’s 9.17 ver­sus 8.94. So it’s just caught up after what­ev­er that is. [00:05:00] Years. Um, two point, the sec­ond port­fo­lio that I start­ed a few months lat­er, it is now 18% ver­sus eight, or since it start­ed eight, uh, per annum.

This is, um, the third port­fo­lio is 21% per annum ver­sus 10.8 for the SPDR. And the last one is 22.4% per annum ver­sus 10.41. So the first one is caught up, the oth­er three are killing it.

Tony Kynas­ton: hmm.

Cameron: Uh, dou­ble mar­ket for the oth­er three, and some­how it’s pulls the whole lot up. So, um. I’m so hap­py about that because not that I was real­ly con­cerned that I was doing some­thing wrong, but you know, it was con­cern­ing that it was just looked so bad for the first cou­ple of years.

But, um, there you go. It’s now demon­strat­ing that, you know, the sys­tem just works if you just [00:06:00] stay dis­ci­plined, stay focused. Even a dum­my like me can do it and it, and even with four and that’s, you know, four port­fo­lios. Like we not one of 10 to 20 stocks, but there’s, I dun­no, 60 to 80 stocks in that, you know, then I dun­no they’re all got 20, but there’s 60 to 80 stocks in there prob­a­bly.

Uh, while I’m at it, let’s look at the dum­my port­fo­lio. Um

Tony Kynas­ton: t‑shirts made up with For­tu­na, Pati, ette on them.

Cameron: Oh, okay.

Tony Kynas­ton: For­tune favors the patient.

Cameron: Do you remem­ber the, the one with Latin on it that I had, that I wore on our last Europe trip?

Tony Kynas­ton: Is that the, um. yes, I do. The one, um, Vince Vin­do. Vince, uh, some­thing like that? No, depar. Sio.

Cameron: No, I’m not gonna say what it was because it was dis­gust­ing. But it was in Latin.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, I thought you

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: know the one you mean. Yeah,

Cameron: Yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: was dis­gust­ing, [00:07:00] but it was in

Cameron: it was just, it was in Latin and I was wait­ing for some­one in Italy to sort of rec­og­nize it and call me out on it. No one did.

Tony Kynas­ton: But you had

Cameron: Um,

Tony Kynas­ton: being blown up, did­n’t you? From the, I think it was the Cae­sar pod­cast, the

Cameron: some­thing being

Tony Kynas­ton: or, any­way,

Cameron: oh, oh,

Tony Kynas­ton: digress.

Cameron: oh oh. Are you talk­ing about when they burn thing Go forio?

Tony Kynas­ton: Rio.

Cameron: No. Forio? No, I don’t think I had a forio one. The, uh, dum­my port­fo­lio, uh, has been run­ning, oh, hold on. That’s not the right end date. Oh, god dammit. Let me get to the right end date. So 2nd of Sep­tem­ber, 2019 to, what is the date today? The 18th?

I’ll do it to the 17th. Uh, 17.24% per annum ver­sus 8.2% per annum. So bet­ter than dou­ble mar­ket, um, over that peri­od. Just [00:08:00] so, uh, yeah, like, uh, very hap­py about that cur­rent cal­en­dar year for the dum­my port­fo­lio, by the way, up 27%. Ver­sus eight and a half for the index. So best stock in the dum­my port­fo­lio this last, this cur­rent cur­rent cal­en­dar year, PRN up 97%, SRG, up 95% PPM up 60 PLT up, 55 SRV up, 53.

Just a bonkers, absolute­ly bonkers year.

Tony Kynas­ton: It has been, has­n’t it? Maybe we’re get­ting ahead of our­selves and going the ear­ly crow here. ’cause the mar­ket is turn­ing down a bit, but we’ll see.

Cameron: Well,

Tony Kynas­ton: allowed

Cameron: this is the time,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: this is the time to,

Tony Kynas­ton: a crow.

Cameron: to grow. We may not be able to do it in a month. Yeah. So the finan­cial review I was read­ing this morn­ing, uh, says that there’s a cor­rec­tion. This is sh clear. Uh, the ASX 200 has fall­en for six days straight and is off [00:09:00] more than 5% in less than a month. Indeed, the case that a pull­back may actu­al­ly be healthy is fur­ther strength­ened when we look at what’s Dr.

Dri­ven the mar­ket over the past six months. To put it blunt­ly, it’s been a dash for trash.

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm. And that’s not how we’ve over­achieved. That’s, that’s what the mar­ket’s doing.

Cameron: Yes, this is, um, he’s quot­ing some Mac­quar­ie Bank guy here, but, uh, Mac­quar­ie’s local strate­gist, Matthew Brooks argues we are in a style bizaro world where the stocks that usu­al­ly do well are strug­gling and the losers are win­ning. I’m like, real­ly? Because our stocks are doing great.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: I don’t, and they’re not losers.

Tony Kynas­ton: the only bizarre thing about them is that peo­ple haven’t heard of them. Peo­ple don’t

Cameron: And that you, the only bi bizarre thing is that you think it’s bizaro because they’re good stocks. The best per­formed style of the past six months is actu­al­ly loss mak­ing com­pa­nies accord­ing to this guy, los­er loss mak­ers, defined by [00:10:00] Mac­quar­ie’s Quant team, as com­pa­nies with high­er risk and weak­er ini­tial momen­tum deliv­ered a stag­ger­ing return of 41.7% over the peri­od while com­pa­nies post­ing neg­a­tive num­bers at the net prof­it and cash flow line up 21, 26 0.1% on aver­age.

So, uh, let me see. Last six months, uh,

Tony Kynas­ton: too, haven’t we? Must have been four years ago. Three, four years ago. I think I even did a cou­ple of shows about invert­ing QAV and see­ing if that would work bet­ter than QAV.

Cameron: yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: And

Cameron: you did.

Tony Kynas­ton: it, did for a while and then it came crash­ing down. ’cause when the mar­ket turns, those stocks

Cameron: Yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: and down the mine shaft. Down the ele­va­tor shaft.

Cameron: hi. Com­par­i­son. Our last six months in the dum­my port­fo­lio is up 26% ver­sus 6.4 for the bench­mark. So he’s say­ing those [00:11:00] post­ing neg­a­tive num­bers at the net prof­it and cash flow line line up 26%. Well guar­an­teed that none of the, uh, QAV stocks fit that descrip­tion and they’ve done 26% too.

Tony Kynas­ton: don’t even

Cameron: I should,

Tony Kynas­ton: fil­ter, do they? We don’t even

Cameron: should reach out to CLE and say, hey.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. If any­one has a con­tact into the AFR, let us know. We’re hap­py to talk

Cameron: Yeah.

the oth­er arti­cle that I saw, I’m not sure if I sent you this one. Um, investors can for­get Trump’s tar­iff war, but, but where is next move?

Tony Kynas­ton: What? The release

Cameron: Have.

Tony Kynas­ton: files or as they’re also known the The Epstein redac­tions.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: Well they, there are no Epstein foes. They told us a few months ago, don’t exist. It’s all a big Demo­c­rat hoax. Now they’re gonna release them and he’s told Pam Bon­di to par­tic­u­lar­ly look into the Democ­rats. ’cause when the Democ­rats cre­at­ed the hoax, they made it all [00:12:00] about the Democ­rats who were.

Involved with Epstein? I don’t know. Sure. Trump sees a log­i­cal through­put there through line there some­where. Uh, hav­ing insist­ed for months that tar­iffs would not increase prices, the Trump admin­is­tra­tion has begun slash­ing agri­cul­tur­al tar­iffs to try to reduce what Amer­i­cans are pay­ing for gro­ceries on Thurs­day night.

Trump said many food prod­ucts from Argenti­na, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Sal­vador would be exempt­ed from levies. After they agreed to trade frame­works with the US a day lat­er, he moved to low­er tar­iffs on beef, cof­fee, and dozens of agri­cul­tur­al and food goods, includ­ing from coun­tries that haven’t done a trade deal that includes tar­iffs on good old Aus­tralian beef.

The two real hotspots have become the prices for beef, which sits at record highs in Amer­i­ca, and cof­fee, which has surged more than 41% in the past 12 months, main­ly due to the 50% tar­iff Trump imposed on Brazil

Tony Kynas­ton: But

Cameron: every time

Tony Kynas­ton: the

Cameron: I go out.

Tony Kynas­ton: down.

Cameron: Oh, he [00:13:00] has.

Tony Kynas­ton: I heard

Cameron: Right,

Tony Kynas­ton: about this. think it was

Cameron: right. Did­n’t we talk about that on a US pod­cast a few weeks ago?

Tony Kynas­ton: No, this was only in the last week.

Cameron: Oh right. But we did talk about eggs. We talked about a big egg com­pa­ny over there. Remem­ber?

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh,

Cameron: Can’t remem­ber who it was now

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah, yeah,

Cameron: and how the egg prices had gone up when there was bird flu and all of that kind of stuff. And then they came back down. But I think they’re still his high­er than they have been his­tor­i­cal­ly.

It’s like four bucks a car­ton or some­thing over there.

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah. Well, Trump’s claim­ing he solved the egg prob­lem, but of course, that’s not where the prob­lem is now. It’s in, it’s in beef. And the Amer­i­can, the Amer­i­can farm­ers are up in arms because, uh, they’re being flood­ed with, with beef now. ’cause the tar­iffs are being low­ered. They thought they were get­ting a good deal and being pro­tect­ed. Now they’re not. So they’re upset.

Cameron: Uh, well, the rea­son I men­tioned the trough thing is because, um. The guy from Mac­quar­ie, Matthew Brooks also said that he thought that, um, [00:14:00] some of the slow­down in our mar­ket was because of the shut­down in the US and the tar­iffs and all of that kin­da stuff. And now that the shut­down is over and the tar­iffs are being pulled back, that, uh, it, it might help our mar­ket recov­er, but

Tony Kynas­ton: I

Cameron: eh,

Tony Kynas­ton: because it’s

Cameron: yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: I think it’s also part of, um, what’s hold­ing us back is, is part­ly the shut­down, but not the way first think of it as being the shut­down. It’s because no one did any work on sta­tis­tics over there. ’cause they weren’t get­ting paid. so all the key stats in the in the US are about a month behind.

So peo­ple are just not pre­pared to invest until they see what pay­rolls are Like what CPIs like whether the fed’s gonna cut, the fed’s gonna raise. We’ve seen this before. I mean, prob­a­bly one of the hard­est times to be an investor since we’ve been doing QAV was when the RBA start­ed rais­ing inter­est rates. And you know, a lot of the noise in Aus­tralia is, we’ve seen the last cut. And so [00:15:00] peo­ple are gun shy and if the US is in the same sit­u­a­tion, which some ana­lysts are doing their own num­bers and say­ing that the, the, the Fed may be on hold for longer than peo­ple think, then we’re gonna see the end of easy mon­ey.

And then all those com­pa­nies which don’t make a prof­it, gets sold off. And the loans get repaid before the inter­est rates go up.

Cameron: Well, the good thing from our per­spec­tive is it does­n’t mat­ter, right?

Tony Kynas­ton: does­n’t mat­ter. No, that’s right.

Cameron: Well, it it does in a way like when. I mean, we lost half of our lis­ten­ers when the, when the inter­est rates went up. You know, it was inter­est­ing watch­ing peo­ple who were not able to, well, I assume, I dun­no why they dis­ap­peared, but at least half of our, near­ly half of our mem­ber­ship, I think, dis­ap­peared in 22, 23 when the mar­ket was strug­gling.

Um, dun­no why. Maybe there was a vari­ety of rea­sons, but, um, I think a lot of peo­ple pulled their mon­ey out­ta the share mar­ket and, you know, I got emails from peo­ple say­ing they were buy­ing a [00:16:00] house or they were doing this or doing that. But, uh, yeah, peo­ple do get affect­ed when the mar­ket has a cor­rec­tion

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, absolute­ly. Or when inter­est rates go up and they both are inter inter­linked, I guess,

Cameron: con­nect­ed. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: But as

Cameron: What else?

Tony Kynas­ton: I wish, you know, wish I could read all the eco­nom­ic data and pre­dict the future, but it’s not pos­si­ble.

Cameron: And Well, I was talk­ing to some­body. Oh yeah, I had a guy over here, a friend from coun­try the oth­er day. We were talk­ing about invest­ing and he was, you know, ask­ing, you know, what you thought about, you know, what was hap­pen­ing in the US and what was gonna hap­pen. And I said, you know, Tony’s thing is we don’t, we don’t try and fore­cast the future, right?

We just play it day by day. Let the sys­tem tell us what to do.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: the dealt.

Cameron: Yeah. What you got on your list of things to talk about? Tk? I got more, but I thought I’d throw to you for a bit.

Tony Kynas­ton: I have. quite a few because we did an inter­view last week and [00:17:00] I’ve got a few sto­ries backed up. I’ll try and get through them quick­ly.

Cameron: Tony’s a lit­tle bit backed up. Peo­ple you need to have more fiber. Tony Chia seeds

Tony Kynas­ton: try.

Cameron: here, like green smooth­ies with chia seeds is what I rec­om­mend. And Soum husk sol­u­ble and insol­u­ble fiber.

Tony Kynas­ton: Is that what you are drink­ing?

Cameron: Yep. Yeah, yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: you are backed up as well.

Cameron: No, no. I’ve got lots of fiber. I know they get backed up run­ning like smooth. I am.

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, okay.

Cameron: Any­way, mov­ing. Load along.

Tony Kynas­ton: right along. I’m not backed up. uh, had their full year results. I own shares in a NZ that’s been on the buy list for a long time. Uh, the mar­ket actu­al­ly respond­ed okay to it. Um, they’ve, the, the shares have gone next div­i­dends, so they’ve come off a lit­tle bit price wise, but they, they’ll pay a rea­son­able div­i­dend yield. Um, takes a, a month or so to do that for some rea­son. I can [00:18:00] nev­er under­stand why banks take a long time to pay div­i­dends. I guess that’s why they’re prof­itable any­way. Um. The com­pa­ny report­ed MPA of 5.79 bil­lion, which was down 14% year on year. But that was large­ly due to redun­dan­cy and legal costs. The new CEO Mr. Mat­tos is shak­ing things up, but it’s cost­ing some mon­ey to do that. Under­ly­ing cash prof­it though was 6.9 bil­lion, which was the head of con­sen­sus. So it was­n’t a bad result. I think peo­ple are giv­ing Mr. Mat­tos, Nun­no, mat­tos the ben­e­fit of the doubt, and they like what he’s doing and they’ll see what hap­pens.

So, um, I mean, it’s, it was pret­ty wide­ly cov­ered that result, but it, uh, was­n’t too bad. And a NZ has been the best per­form­ing of the bank stocks this year. Um, the only one on the QAV list this year. And at the same time, CBA is off 20%. As peo­ple start to real­ize that CBA was the most over­val­ued bank­ing bank in the world in his­to­ry. It’s, [00:19:00] it’s the analy­sis