Michael GoldÂberg from Collins Street Asset ManÂageÂment returns to the show after three years. We dive deep into how valÂue investÂing has fared through the turÂbuÂlence of recent years â from post-COVID strugÂgles to the renewed upswing of 2025. Michael disÂcussÂes his firmâs 14%+ annuÂal returns, the long-term patience required for underÂvalÂued stocks, and the surÂprisÂing perÂsisÂtence of âcheapâ comÂpaÂnies that stayed cheap for years. We explore Astron LimÂitÂed (ATR) and its rare earths project in VicÂtoÂria, delve into minÂerÂal sands, gold funds, and the lifeÂcyÂcle of comÂmodiÂties, and tackÂle the hot topÂic of AIâs ecoÂnomÂic impact, from effiÂcienÂcy gains to workÂforce disÂrupÂtion. They finÂish with thoughts on SevÂen West Mediaâs mergÂer, the AI-driÂven hype around the MagÂnifÂiÂcent SevÂen in the US, and how valÂue investors can navÂiÂgate an overÂheatÂed tech marÂket withÂout losÂing their cool.
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TimeÂstamps
[00:00] â IntroÂducÂtion: Michael GoldÂberg â reflecÂtions on the last three years for Collins Street Asset ManÂageÂment.
[00:03] â ValÂue investÂing through turÂbuÂlence: comÂparÂing portÂfoÂlios, divÂiÂdend perÂforÂmance, and the impact of risÂing interÂest rates.
[00:04] â DisÂcusÂsion of Astron LimÂitÂed (ASX: ATR) â minÂerÂal sands, rare earths, and US fundÂing.
[00:08] â Gold Fund stratÂeÂgy: investÂing in cheap minÂers vs. specÂuÂlatÂing on gold price.
[00:15] â The role of AI in investÂing and busiÂness â hype vs. realÂiÂty, and patÂtern recogÂniÂtion vs. creÂativÂiÂty.
[00:17] â SevÂen West Media (ASX: SWM) and Sky EnterÂtainÂment using AI for adverÂtisÂing and comÂpliÂance.
[00:20] â DisÂcusÂsion of NextDC (ASX: NXT), OraÂcle (NYSE: ORCL), and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) â are AI infraÂstrucÂture plays overÂvalÂued?
[00:28] â Deep dive on SevÂen West Mediaâs mergÂer with SXL â valÂuÂaÂtion, synÂerÂgies, and marÂket mulÂtiÂples.
[00:30] â AI bubÂble in US marÂkets and whether corÂrecÂtions will ripÂple into AusÂtralian equiÂties.
[00:31] â PasÂsive investÂing and ComÂmonÂwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) domÂiÂnance in instiÂtuÂtionÂal flows.
[00:34] â AIâs impact on employÂment: the âGreat Freezeâ and disÂapÂpearÂing tech jobs.
[00:37] â PhiloÂsophÂiÂcal close: can AI be creÂative, or is it just remixÂing humanityâs dataset?
Transcription
Cameron: WelÂcome back to QAV, episode 845. Weâre recordÂing this on the 10th of NovemÂber, 2025. KeepÂing with the 20 fives. The last time our guest was on this show was episode 525. 300 episodes ago, I guess. Uh, that was in July of 2022. WelÂcome back. Michael GoldÂberg from Collins Street Asset ManÂageÂment. How have the last three and, uh, change years been for you and Collins Street?
Michael, I.
Michael: Tony, thank you for havÂing me back again. Itâs always a blast to talk to you guys. three years has been an interÂestÂing time. I mean, cerÂtainÂly I think valÂue investÂing strugÂgled for a litÂtle while. Weâve, uh, weâve, weâve been able to. some realÂly good returns. I think weâre still runÂning at about 14% since we launched in 2016.
The last five years I think weâre runÂning at about 14 and a half. So no comÂplaints there, but itâs cerÂtainÂly been a bumpy ride and I think anyÂone whoâs a valÂue investor would probÂaÂbly say the same. How have you guys done,
Cameron: No,
Michael: your
Cameron: no.
Michael: last couÂple
Cameron: We had no,
Michael: No.
Cameron: we had no but [00:01:00] 2021 to 2023, uh, the couÂple of years there, you know, were tough. We realÂly sufÂfered and we thought it was just us. So Iâm glad we should have had you on more often durÂing that periÂod so we could comÂmisÂerÂate.
Michael: You, you guys are much more data driÂven, I think. I think you guys probÂaÂbly have more sophisÂtiÂcatÂed tools for pickÂing your stocks, but for me itâs, itâs been interÂestÂing and frusÂtratÂing and equal parts, um, you know, ordiÂnarÂiÂly. Look again over the last year itâs been realÂly, realÂly good for us. But the couÂple of years before that, you know, it, it was, it was surÂprisÂing how many stocks stayed in our portÂfoÂlio for a long periÂod of time.
You know, norÂmalÂly you have some sort of recyÂcling going through, but I just found that the last four or five years, the stocks that were cheap five years ago were still cheap a year ago. Um, and thatâs a strange and difÂferÂent sort of sitÂuÂaÂtion to be in. Um, but you know, our take is if theyâre funÂdaÂmenÂtalÂly good busiÂnessÂes, evenÂtuÂalÂly the marÂket will cotÂton on. The quesÂtion is whenâs he [00:02:00] evenÂtuÂalÂly.
Cameron: Well, uh, I was just gonna say, our portÂfoÂlio, the one that we run for the podÂcast thatâs been runÂning since 2019, now, I guess last five years, itâs just litÂtle bit less than 19% per annum.
Michael: AmazÂing.
Cameron: But nearÂly half of that is divÂiÂdends, right? So 11.5% is capÂiÂtal return, the rest is divÂiÂdends. But you know, that couÂple of years that I menÂtioned, like just COVID, post COVID was great.
2020 to 2021. MidÂdle of that, soon as interÂest rates startÂed to go up, it was basiÂcalÂly beginÂning of 2022, interÂest rates startÂed going up. Ukraine hapÂpened. And, uh, it, it was a rough couÂple of years, but, um, last year or so, itâs been great again, last 18 months, itâs realÂly recovÂered quite well. Some of the portÂfoÂlios that I startÂed for our, uh, a proÂgram we startÂed called QAV Lite in earÂly 2022, were underÂwaÂter for like a year and a half, two years.
It was, [00:03:00] it was misÂerÂable. And theyâre all doing douÂble marÂket now. So, you know, theyâve, the last six months have boomed through, you know.
Michael: I think if you didÂnât own ComÂmonÂwealth Bank over the last coup over
Tony KynasÂton: Hmm.
Michael: couÂple of years, you were pretÂty much outÂta luck.
Cameron: So, um, Michael, itâs been a couÂple of years as I menÂtioned since we had you on, and I was, we keep sayÂing we should get Michael back on, but we were too. Too misÂerÂable. Uh, then I got your new, I got your newsletÂter, Robâs newsletÂter that came out your SepÂtemÂber, 2025 quarÂterÂly report. And I know you, you menÂtioned artiÂfiÂcial intelÂliÂgence and I know Tonyâs got a lot of quesÂtions for you, which weâll get to in a secÂond.
But before we get to that, you highÂlightÂed, uh, three comÂpaÂnies. Astron LimÂitÂed. SevÂen West Media and Hum. Group LimÂitÂed. Weâre quite familÂiar with Hum and sevÂen. West Media got a quesÂtion for you about them in a minute, but Astron hasÂnât been on our buy list, but the last time you were on our show in 2022, [00:04:00] you menÂtioned Astron, A TR.
I think you, they might have been a new investÂment for you
Michael: That may
Cameron: then. Can, can you remind our audiÂence about Astron, who they are and what they do? Theyâre a minÂing comÂpaÂny, arenât they?
Michael: are, theyâre based out of an area called DonÂald, which is in, uh, which is in CounÂtry VicÂtoÂria. They own probÂaÂbly the worldâs largest undeÂvelÂoped minÂerÂal sands mine, and they also have rare earths on that same tenÂeÂment. Um, in terms of their proÂgresÂsion, uh, the recent negoÂtiÂaÂtions with the US have seen them get some very attracÂtive fundÂing from the us. would say in the last 12 months or so, the stock has probÂaÂbly gone up about 150%. Theyâve actuÂalÂly had a split, which means that if you look at the share price, you might not be able to tell that. Um, but yeah, I mean, if, if they manÂaged to get their mines up, their minÂerÂal sand project alone is enough to, is, is big enough to last for about 40 years they could proÂduce as much as I think 10 years of globÂal demand by themÂselves once they get it up.
So itâs, itâs quite a large mine. Itâs got quite a lot of, uh, upside [00:05:00] potenÂtial. Um, and like I said, theyâve now got a US partÂner. Theyâve now got financÂing, and so it looks like theyâre movÂing towards getÂting beyond just the theÂoÂretÂiÂcal, um, deciÂsion makÂing and potenÂtialÂly into, you know, finalÂly after almost a genÂerÂaÂtion, uh, develÂopÂing the mine site, which would be very excitÂing.
Tony KynasÂton: Do you, when you are assessÂing a comÂpaÂny like that, do you folÂlow the, or take a posiÂtion on the underÂly comÂmodÂiÂty? Do you work out, is that in the dolÂdrums? Is it doing well? Which I guess for minÂerÂal sands would be someÂthing like titaÂniÂum dioxÂide.
Michael: Look, the, the minÂerÂal sands, um, are the sort of minÂerÂal sands that go into buildÂing tiles. Itâs, uh, itâs, itâs not, not as excitÂing as perÂhaps some of the, uh, highÂer tech minÂerÂal sands or, or rare earths. Um. of their minÂerÂal sands that they have mined hisÂtorÂiÂcalÂly, they had preÂviÂous mines, um, have been sold into the ChiÂnese marÂket, litÂerÂalÂly to make tool, uh,
Tony KynasÂton: Hmm.
Michael: tiles or white or, um, would you call like porceÂlain goods.
The sort of things that go into makÂing bathÂtubs and kitchens are what youâd use this brand or this, [00:06:00] this verÂsion of minÂerÂal sands for
Tony KynasÂton: Right. But do you still,
Michael: right, the rarest are much more excitÂing. Um, but thatâs, thatâs, thatâs, thatâs not what theyâve focused on until now.
Tony KynasÂton: but do you do any sort of analyÂsis on the underÂlyÂing comÂmodÂiÂty? Because you know, for examÂple, uh, lithiÂum stocks a few years ago were a huge boom and bust cycle, and you kinÂda like could see that comÂing and going in the comÂmodÂiÂty. Itself before youâre worÂried about the minÂers who are minÂing it. So do you take a posiÂtion on whether your comÂpaÂny that is going to do well because the, you know, the marÂket for the underÂlyÂing comÂmodÂiÂty is strong or weak, or where does that fit in?
Michael: I, think that if a comÂmodÂiÂty is doing excepÂtionÂalÂly well, you do have to take a posiÂtion, um, because othÂerÂwise it becomes difÂfiÂcult to work out what the valÂue is. For someÂthing as borÂing as. As, as minÂerÂal sands, I donât think itâs as necÂesÂsary. Um, the minÂerÂal sands price has been pretÂty flat for an extendÂed periÂod of time. Um, they did a feaÂsiÂbilÂiÂty, a feaÂsiÂbilÂiÂty study 15 years ago, and they did anothÂer feaÂsiÂbilÂiÂty [00:07:00] study again a couÂple of years ago. And both times it showed, um, based on preÂvailÂing prices that they are very, very ecoÂnomÂic. And so there we didÂnât have to take a a, a. Strong posiÂtion on what we thought MinÂerÂal StanÂdard was gonna do.
But to your point, um, you know, we, we were asked on sevÂerÂal occaÂsions if we were investÂing in lithiÂum when the boom kicked off. And our take was, look, you know, there are cerÂtainÂly comÂpaÂnies that are gonna make fabÂuÂlous monÂey out of it, but at this point we donât know. You know, we canât work out based on our assessÂment of demand and supÂply and, and whatâs comÂing on in terms of proÂducÂtion, whether, whether lithiÂumâs expenÂsive or whether itâs cheap.
But cerÂtainÂly itâs much more expenÂsive than it was yesÂterÂday and the day before. Um, so I think if you are, if youâre investÂing in. SomeÂthing thatâs going through a boom. You have to have a strong posiÂtion on what you think the genÂuine valÂue of that comÂmodÂiÂty is. Um, but if youâre buyÂing someÂthing that hasÂnât expeÂriÂenced a boom like that and you can assess the project based on its ecoÂnomÂics, then I think itâs also imporÂtant.
Tony KynasÂton: And you, you do your, your comÂpaÂny does take posiÂtions on comÂmodÂiÂty relatÂed themes too. âcause Iâve seen speÂcial funds set up to take advanÂtage of that. Hmm.
Michael: [00:08:00] I mean the, the, the probÂaÂbly our, our, our most, our most famous or infaÂmous, uh, speÂcial sitÂuÂaÂtion, uh, speÂcial sitÂuÂaÂtion fund is our gold fund.
Tony KynasÂton: Mm-hmm.
Michael: it about two years ago, and even then, at the time when we launched it, VAs, my busiÂness partÂner and I, we, we didÂnât agree on everyÂthing. Um, which is not a surÂprise for anyÂbody whoâs met me in VAs. But, um, you know. BasiÂcalÂly, VAs was very, very conÂfiÂdent that the price of gold was gonna increase subÂstanÂtialÂly from about the 1600 US dolÂlars at the time. Um, Iâm dumbÂing myself in here. I said I underÂstand all the reaÂsons for the, for why you think the tailÂwinds stack up. I underÂstand demand and supÂply.
I underÂstand thereâs been a un under, under develÂopÂment of new projects. I underÂstand, you know, that, that. If you look at gold as, as, as, as monÂey, then if youâre, if youâre comÂparÂing it relÂaÂtive to, to, to, to regÂuÂlar curÂrenÂcies, that that, you know, thereâs a lot of upside just based on the inflaÂtionÂary impact. But I said, Iâm not comÂfortÂable investÂing in gold stocks based on specÂuÂlaÂtion. I wanÂna be sure that if weâre buyÂing gold stocks to get expoÂsure to the gold stoÂry, buyÂing [00:09:00] gold stocks that are. Cheap based on the curÂrent staÂtus quo. And so thatâs what we did. We looked for comÂpaÂnies that were, that were priced as if gold were, at the time, I donât know, $800 or a thouÂsand dolÂlars, and we said, you know what?
Where the gold goes up or a litÂtle bit down, these comÂpaÂnies ought to do quite well. Now of course, weâve had the douÂble tailÂwind that, um, gold prices have gone up and a lot of these comÂpaÂnies, not all of these comÂpaÂnies, but a lot of comÂpaÂnies have seen a lot of exciteÂment come into them. And so I think weâve seen about 150% return. In about the two years that weâve been launchÂing the fund, that since weâve launched the fund. Um, but yeah, theyâre cerÂtainÂly helpÂful to have a view
Tony KynasÂton: Yes.
Michael: but, uh, my prefÂerÂence is to not be reliant on highÂer prices of comÂmodÂiÂty to make monÂey out of the equiÂty investÂments.
Tony KynasÂton: We, I donât take speÂcial sitÂuÂaÂtions in the way youâve just described it, but what I find is that by folÂlowÂing our process, you look back and say, gee, Iâve bought a lot of gold minÂers in the last six months, and it becomes a, a theme anyÂway from the ground up rather than idenÂtiÂfyÂing the macro facÂtors involved.
Michael: I, you know what? I [00:10:00] agree, Tony. I mean that, thatâs, thatâs how this actuÂal fund came about. Weâre not out there lookÂing to launch new funds. You know, VAs and I are investors. We love busiÂnessÂes, we love valÂuÂaÂtions, we love fundÂing opporÂtuÂniÂties. when we find an idea through our broadÂer research that either doesÂnât fit, manÂdate, or goes a bit too far, um, for our flagÂship then weâll launch someÂthing to give us, you know, speÂcial expoÂsure.
So we, we had, weâve got a litÂtle bit less now, but at the time when we launched the, the, uh, the gold gold fund, we already had. ish perÂcent expoÂsure to gold comÂpaÂnies in our flagÂship comÂpaÂny.
Tony KynasÂton: Right.
Michael: but we both wantÂed more, but we didÂnât think it was approÂpriÂate to have more than 30% in whatâs supÂposed to be a diverÂsiÂfied portÂfoÂlio.
And so at that point we, we said, well, why donât we just launch a new fund? We flagged the idea with some investors and they were all on board, and so we launched it and thank God weâve done very.
Tony KynasÂton: And is that, and, and I think the othÂer thing about the speÂcial sitÂuÂaÂtion funds, which I find interÂestÂing, is are not intendÂing to keep that open forÂevÂer. Itâs going to have a, a life cycle and end at some stage.
Michael: Yeah. So, so the, the, the way we strucÂture [00:11:00] them is that numÂber one, theyâre, theyâve got a life cycle, theyâve got a matuÂriÂty date, and numÂber two, theyâre closed. And we do that for two reaÂsons, numÂber one. I think investors in genÂerÂal tend to stress when they see volatilÂiÂty. And if youâre investÂing in a sinÂgle comÂmodÂiÂty, good chance youâre gonna see some volatilÂiÂty.
So if we give ourÂselves a three or four year time horiÂzon, we can see our way through that volatilÂiÂty and get towards the posÂiÂtive outÂcomes. Um. So thatâs why itâs a closed endÂed fund. And in terms of timeÂframes, if you, if, if youâre investÂing in a sinÂgle type of idea, thereâs no, thereâs no sinÂgle idea that Iâm aware of in the hisÂtoÂry of the world that has been valÂue forÂevÂer.
Things
Tony KynasÂton: Hmm.
Michael: and things become expenÂsive, and at some point youâre gonna want to exit. So we think that, you know, for these sorts of things, for these sorts of, uh, cycliÂcal theÂmatÂics. Four-ish years is probÂaÂbly about right. That gives you enough time to see the results. Um, and then if peoÂple wanÂna stick around afterÂwards, theyâre welÂcome to stick around afterÂwards.
If peoÂple wanÂna get out, then we give them the opporÂtuÂniÂty to get out.
Tony KynasÂton: So the fund might keep going, but youâll, [00:12:00] youâll allow redempÂtions after a cerÂtain date. Is that how it works?
Michael: Yeah, thatâs the way it works. Um, we also, often with these sorts of things, weâll have a. CapÂiÂtal returns along the jourÂney.
Tony KynasÂton: Hmm.
Michael: we launched this parÂticÂuÂlar fund, the Gold Fund, about two years ago with the intendÂed, it should last about four years.
Tony KynasÂton: Mm-hmm.
Michael: I said, some specÂtacÂuÂlar returns in the first couÂple of years, and so we actuÂalÂly returned, um, about 78 cents on every dolÂlar that peoÂple had already investÂed, that peoÂple
Tony KynasÂton: Hmm.
Michael: investÂed.
We were returned back to clients, uh, couÂple months ago, so theyâve still got. I donât know, a dolÂlar 50, a dolÂlar 70, I think itâs probÂaÂbly a dolÂlar, $70, 75 for every dolÂlar they investÂed, and theyâve also got 78 cents back. So,
Tony KynasÂton: thatâs like a PE of 1.3.
Michael: Uh, so yeah, look, I mean, I think peoÂple like getÂting their capÂiÂtal back. I think it improves your IRRs. Um, and if peoÂple wanÂna reinÂvest it, then we, we gave that opporÂtuÂniÂty to peoÂple who did wanÂna reinÂvest. But we thought, you know, givÂen, givÂen that peoÂple had come into this fund with an idea of how much risk they wantÂed to take, [00:13:00] givÂen that theyâve now got much more expoÂsure.
âcause, âcause the, the fund had done so well, we gave peoÂple the opporÂtuÂniÂty to take that off the table.
Tony KynasÂton: So, so givÂen you watch the secÂtor quite closeÂly because of that fund, whatâs your view on the lifeÂcyÂcle of gold? When, when do you start exitÂing posiÂtions yourÂself?
Michael: Tough quesÂtions Look, I mean, you can pick arbiÂtrary numÂbers. You can say, oh, if the, if, if the portÂfoÂlio goes up more the next perÂcent. Or you can pick an arbiÂtrary numÂber in terms of what gold prices are in a parÂticÂuÂlar curÂrenÂcy. Um, thereâs, thereâs as much, thereâs as much, um, art as there is sciÂence.
I think in my view at least. I think the point at which Iâll get genÂuineÂly conÂcerned that weâve hit the peak of the cycle is the point at which. listÂed comÂpaÂnies are preÂdictÂing highÂer gold prices in their valÂuÂaÂtion. So at the
Tony KynasÂton: Right.
Michael: grantÂed that gold prices fit 4,000, I think if you look across most of the gold stocks on the ASX, most of them, their earnÂings or the, or the, or their, or the unit price is preÂdictÂing gold price well below 3000. I think [00:14:00] thatâs probÂaÂbly quite usuÂal, um, for when a, for when a, a comÂmodÂiÂty is becomÂing hot. I think when a comÂmodÂiÂty has become hot. And perÂhaps too hot, youâll start to see the marÂket preÂdictÂing $5,000 gold price when the gold price is 4,000. And at that point Iâd be very, very conÂcerned, but I donât think that weâre there yet.
Tony KynasÂton: Iâve seen a, Iâve noticed a couÂple of minÂers. I canât recall which ones, so posÂsiÂbly not ones that I own. Theyâve startÂed to go un hedged, which is kind of like what you are sayÂing. Just sayÂing we think the gold price is going highÂer.
Michael: Yeah,
Tony KynasÂton: Hmm.
Michael: I, I think weâve seen that probÂaÂbly for a couÂple of years. Um. Yeah, look, it, itâs, itâs hard to know. You can say either they are insidÂers who know the marÂket betÂter than
Tony KynasÂton: Mm-hmm.
Michael: we should lisÂten to them. Or you can say theyâre insidÂers. And insidÂers often make terÂriÂble deciÂsions at, uh, at peaks and troughs, and so we shouldÂnât lisÂten to them. Itâs take your pick
Tony KynasÂton: Okay.
Cameron: Donât get high on your own supÂply, as ScarÂface said, or someÂbody said in ScarÂface. Yeah.
Tony KynasÂton: Hmm. And speakÂing of sitÂuÂaÂtions, your latÂest quarÂterÂly report, uh, went into AI in depth. So, [00:15:00] and I guess from a valÂue perÂspecÂtive, what, what are your takes on the whole AI bubÂble cirÂcuÂlar econÂoÂmy or, you know, next, next horiÂzon for mankind thatâs going on at the moment?
Michael: I, I think that AI is a fasÂciÂnatÂing, um, conÂverÂsaÂtion. Uh, but I think that peoÂple get carÂried away a litÂtle bit when they start talkÂing about it as if AI was actuÂalÂly artiÂfiÂcial intelÂliÂgence rather than just a tool that is realÂly good at colÂlatÂing readÂing, assessÂing data, recÂogÂnizÂing patÂterns, and then feedÂing you back best pracÂtices or, or, or conÂsenÂsus feedÂback. Um, I, I, I think that. Whatâs his names? Uh, SunÂday Pache, CEO of Google said that he thinks that AI will be as revÂoÂluÂtionÂary as fire and elecÂtricÂiÂty. I think itâs probÂaÂbly right. Um, I forÂget who I saw it source from, but I, I recall readÂing, um, someÂwhere that, uh, they were comÂparÂing AI to
Tony KynasÂton: [00:16:00] Mm-hmm.
Michael: not, not that it by itself necÂesÂsarÂiÂly. Um. I mean, it by itself will add tremenÂdous valÂue. But the, you know, the, where weâll add the most valÂue is, is, is how it driÂves new economies, how it driÂves new outÂcomes, how it driÂves new effiÂcienÂcies. And so what comes out of AI is, I think, gonna be much more interÂestÂing from an investÂment perÂspecÂtive and from a, from a wellÂbeÂing perÂspecÂtive and from a humanÂiÂty perÂspecÂtive than the AI by itself, which at the moment I think is realÂly just a realÂly, realÂly good algoÂrithm. That might be a bit simÂple, but that, thatâs where I see it at the moment. I.
Tony KynasÂton: How, whatâs your take on the fact that every time I open an annuÂal report this year, itâs got AI someÂwhere in the paraÂgraphs? I mean, is it, are we too earÂly to see any sort of benÂeÂfits in the genÂerÂal run of the mill comÂpaÂny, or is it comÂing or, or whatâs your take on that?
Michael: Look, I, I, I think itâs cerÂtainÂly comÂing and, and you know, Cameron, I think you menÂtioned that we wrote a bit. We wrote about some of the comÂpaÂnies, um, in our quarÂterÂly report, sevÂen West, obviÂousÂly the media, the media space that would be crazy not to use all the data theyâve been colÂlect, colÂlatÂing through their online, um, through their online [00:17:00] offerÂings to betÂter tarÂget adverÂtiseÂment.
Now, again, in the oldÂen days, you mightâve, you know, you mightâve said that was an algoÂrithm. NowaÂdays you can, you can use AI to grab such masÂsive Mabb, such masÂsive chunks of data that you can get betÂter outÂcomes and betÂter taiÂlor make, um, your, your, your tarÂgetÂed, your tarÂgetÂed, uh, adverÂtisÂing. Um. You know, we, we menÂtioned in our quarÂter report that we had some expoÂsure to, to, to, to sky enterÂtainÂment. So, you know, sky EnterÂtainÂment assessÂes, gamÂbler behavÂior to idenÂtiÂfy probÂlem gamÂbling so that they can, they can be in line with, uh, with regÂuÂlaÂtoÂry expecÂtaÂtions and cut it off. necÂesÂsary. I, I think that AI is going to play a part, um, in everyÂbodyâs life going forÂward. Um, and I think itâs inevitable.
I think itâs inevitable in much in, in much same way that the IndusÂtriÂal RevÂoÂluÂtion changed the way we went about our day-to-day lives. I think to some extent this will have a simÂiÂlar impact. Um, now that can be scary, cerÂtainÂly. In some regards. Um, but it can also be very excitÂing to [00:18:00] think, you know, what the world would look like going forÂwards givÂen these masÂsive effiÂcienÂcies.
And these, the, the abilÂiÂty to cheapÂly impleÂment best pracÂtices for every mom and dad, you know, shop on every corÂner. Um, itâs, itâs a fabÂuÂlous, fabÂuÂlous tool if used propÂerÂly. And I think
Tony KynasÂton: So
Michael: if you wanÂna keep up.
Tony KynasÂton: are, are you thereÂfore ascribÂing an extra valÂue to sevÂen West Media or Sky Um, because theyâve got the abilÂiÂty to use data or, or you know, where does it fit into your valÂuÂaÂtion modÂel?
Michael: There, thereâs no speÂcifÂic part of our valÂuÂaÂtion modÂel that relies on or has an expecÂtaÂtion that a, a AI should play a part. Uh, that being said, I think that any comÂpaÂny that does not impleÂment AI in some way in their busiÂness modÂel, theyâre going to be left behind. Um, I, I, I, I supÂpose your quesÂtion is, if itâs adding effiÂcienÂcies, can we preÂdict betÂter earnÂings going forÂward than what
Tony KynasÂton: Hmm.
Michael: seen in the past? I donât know. I, I donât know, because I susÂpect that. If you are [00:19:00] doing it, if you are tryÂing to driÂve effiÂcienÂcies, but all of your comÂpetiÂtors are also tryÂing to die of effiÂcienÂcies. It may be a a, a net zero sum game. Um,
Tony KynasÂton: a cost.
Michael: or, or, or potenÂtialÂly cost. Again, I, I dunÂno that AI is that expenÂsive. Um, I think a lot of these comÂpaÂnies are already payÂing for data, um, and Iâm not sure that AI is necÂesÂsarÂiÂly gonna add a subÂstanÂtial cost in the long run.
In the earÂly, in the earÂly. PerÂhaps now it will add valÂue, um, at a cost at some point. I think itâll be widÂget ized or comÂmodiÂtized. Um, so that itâs expectÂed that everyÂbody should use it and it probÂaÂbly wonât add a tremenÂdous amount of valÂue. I mean, itâs, itâs, itâs realÂly the same thing with the Nvidia of the world, the Nvidia and the um, the OraÂcles and the snowflakes.
And localÂly youâve got comÂpaÂnies like, um, next DC and a all of those guys. Have quite by acciÂdent, benÂeÂfitÂed tremenÂdousÂly from, from, from, from the, from the ramp up of ai. Um, and theyâve defÂiÂniteÂly got a first mover [00:20:00] advanÂtage. But at some point, um, you know, even amongst the AI providers, you know, if you look at, if you look at, uh, ChatÂGÂPT or you look at perÂplexÂiÂty, or you look at any of the othÂer ones, they might have a. Mover advanÂtage, but evenÂtuÂalÂly it feels to me like itâs gonna become someÂwhat comÂmodiÂtized. So yes, defÂiÂniteÂly first mover advanÂtage. Yes, defÂiÂniteÂly. If youâre an earÂly adapter, uh, adopter rather, youâve probÂaÂbly got some advanÂtage, but evenÂtuÂalÂly I think itâll become an expecÂtaÂtion.
Tony KynasÂton: Itâs like a hygiene facÂtor for just being in busiÂness realÂly, isnât it?
Michael: Yeah, I mean, I think so. And youâd be mad not to try and take advanÂtage.
Tony KynasÂton: Yeah, sure. So, you know, you menÂtioned sort of uninÂtendÂed conÂseÂquences or secÂondary conÂseÂquences there. What about on the ecoÂnomÂic side? Are you, are you envisÂagÂing any sort of, uh, disÂloÂcaÂtion because of unemÂployÂment? For examÂple, when AI becomes wideÂspread?
Michael: Thatâs a good quesÂtion, Tony, and weâre actuÂalÂly talkÂing about it at lunch on FriÂday. We had a a, a, you know, in our office we have lunch togethÂer every FriÂday and we talk about, the rule is no work talk, but someÂtimes we get into tanÂgenÂtial work relatÂed stuff and weâre talkÂing about AI this, this past week.
[00:21:00] And I think the chalÂlenge, anyÂtime youâre expeÂriÂencÂing change is itâs very, very easy to recÂogÂnize and idenÂtiÂfy what the cost is and what youâre going to lose. Itâs very, very hard to idenÂtiÂfy what the benÂeÂfits are gonna be. And I found myself thinkÂing, um, you know, if, if, if we comÂpare ourÂselves to, you know, my grandÂparÂents era, the, the era that came out of World War II and, and set up and, and rebuild our lives here, and I think of my grandÂparÂents and, and, and wonÂder what would my grandÂmothÂer have thought when, when, you know, she, she worked in what we would call today a sweat shop. Um, doing sewing for, for localÂly made, you know, dressÂes and. Jumpers and whatÂevÂer it was. What would she have thought at the time when we, when we expeÂriÂenced some seriÂous globÂalÂizaÂtion and those sorts of roles went overÂseas, she wouldâve probÂaÂbly been frightÂened out of her mind and, you know, conÂcerned for what the future would look like.
But if you fast forÂward now with the benÂeÂfit of hindÂsight, you know, the way that our grandÂparÂents and our great-grandÂparÂents lived comÂpared to where we are today, itâs incomÂpaÂraÂble. Itâs incomÂpaÂraÂble how
Tony KynasÂton: Hmm.
Michael: off [00:22:00] we are today, even givÂen all of that change. And I think weâll probÂaÂbly find the same thing, you know. I weâll find that itâs scary to make a tranÂsiÂtion. Iâm sure the peoÂple who, uh, made sadÂdles for horsÂes, and Iâm sure the peoÂple who are the town expert at buildÂing horse drawn carÂriages were very, very frightÂened when cars came about, when the comÂbusÂtion engine was used in, in autoÂmoÂbiles. But I think if you look at the, the wider world, no oneâs going to argue we arenât betÂter off.
And I think the same will probÂaÂbly hapÂpen with ai. Will there be some turÂbuÂlence while we go through the, the, that that teething periÂod? have no doubt what that will look like. I have no clue. But Iâm sure that when we get to the othÂer side with the effiÂcienÂcies that this sort of data assessÂing tool can do, um, I think weâll all be betÂter off for it.
Tony KynasÂton: So, so the
Michael: either that or the machines will conÂtrol the world.
Tony KynasÂton: So do you see AI as, as, as kind of like just a, a, a fifth gear on data usage, or do you see it as being. You know, the, the super intelÂliÂgence that [00:23:00] blasts our to do things ourÂselves outÂta the water,
Michael: I.
I, donât know if, I donât know enough to not know, but
Tony KynasÂton: right?
Michael: of AI is that it conÂsumes a tremenÂdous amount of data and that it finds patÂterns. So for, for, for examÂple, for examÂple. When you go shopÂping on AmaÂzon and you buy meat pies the botÂtom, it will say, peoÂple who bought meat pies also bought sausage rolls and tomaÂto sauce. Now, the AI might not know why youâd buy tomaÂto sauce with your meat pie, but it recÂogÂnizes the patÂtern and it calls it out, right? Ai, as far as I underÂstand, doesÂnât creÂate anyÂthing new. So for examÂple, if you asked ai, back to my analÂoÂgy about, uh, about, uh. Horse-drawn carts. If you asked AI back in the day, how do I improve my, my, my manÂuÂfacÂturÂing of horse-drawn carts, it would give you best pracÂtices for how to make and sell horse-drawn carts.
It would not sugÂgest that you invent the comÂbusÂtion [00:24:00] engine and. into, into a car. If you, if in the, in the, in the 1990s, I think it was 1990s, if, uh, if you asked AI to help you build a betÂter phone, it wouldâve built you a Nokia that was indeÂstrucÂtible and waterÂproof and would nevÂer break, and perÂhaps a betÂter batÂtery.
It would not have creÂatÂed for you a BlackÂberÂry or ultiÂmateÂly an iPhone. So, so I, I think, I think itâs imporÂtant to recÂogÂnize that while AI at the moment at least mimÂics. Human behavÂior very, very well. Itâs not actuÂalÂly creÂative, you know, I was talkÂing about again, FriÂday lunchtime, we were talkÂing about mimÂicÂkÂing, um, you know, mimÂicÂkÂing looks like realÂiÂty. And, um, Andrew, who you met earÂliÂer, whoâs a bigÂger music afiÂcionaÂdo, he said, Michael, do you rememÂber the Band Rock set from the 1980s? 1990s? Yeah. Yeah. Joy Ride. DanÂgerÂous. You know, enjoyed it as a youngÂster. Heâs like, he said, he. read someÂwhere in an artiÂcle that at the time they were recordÂing [00:25:00] their earÂly albums, they didÂnât actuÂalÂly speak EngÂlish. And so instead they would translitÂerÂate their songs into Swedish and they would sing it in Swedish with the words comÂing out being EngÂlish words. And thatâs a bit like how I imagÂine ai. AI might sound intelÂliÂgent. AI might be able to proÂduce things that seem intelÂliÂgent, but ultiÂmateÂly itâs translitÂerÂatÂing.
UltiÂmateÂly, it doesÂnât realÂly underÂstand what itâs sayÂing. Itâs just idenÂtiÂfyÂing patÂterns and sharÂing them back with us. And again, patÂtern recogÂniÂtion. Itâs fabÂuÂlous and imporÂtant and adds, you know, adds tremenÂdous amount of valÂue. But itâs imporÂtant to disÂtinÂguish between patÂtern recogÂniÂtion and creÂativÂiÂty.
I think cerÂtainÂly in my underÂstandÂing of where AI is at at the moment, itâs not creÂatÂing, itâs just recÂogÂnizÂing.
Tony KynasÂton: Yeah, interÂest. InterÂestÂing. We can probÂaÂbly talk for hours on the phiÂlosÂoÂphy of all this.
Cameron: Iâm, Iâm delibÂerÂateÂly, Iâm delibÂerÂateÂly not enterÂing this conÂverÂsaÂtion. Yeah,
Tony KynasÂton: whether to invite you in. Iâm just gonna ask one more quesÂtion then I can invite you in Cam.
Cameron: no,
Tony KynasÂton: back to marÂkets, what. the, the can, I dunÂno if we recordÂed those statute you had before about the growth [00:26:00] of the US marÂket and how much was attribÂuted to but a large amount of the growth in the US marÂket is attribÂuted to
Cameron: Iâve got the.
Tony KynasÂton: do you think hapÂpens when you know the, that comes off its peak? Does it flow through to the AusÂtralian marÂket? And do you foreÂsee any posiÂtionÂing you might do to mitÂiÂgate that when that hapÂpens?
Michael: Iâm not sure because is your quesÂtion. AssumÂing that AI relatÂed comÂpaÂnies are expenÂsive, what hapÂpens when they corÂrect or are you
Tony KynasÂton: Yes.
Michael: and its effect on broadÂer marÂkets
Tony KynasÂton: No, the first one. Okay.
Michael: look, I mean, thereâs no quesÂtion that the AusÂtralian marÂket is impactÂed by by US marÂkets even, even when we shouldÂnât be, we tend to be, and so if you see a big pullÂback in, in, in those stocks, espeÂcialÂly the ones. That are tanÂgenÂtialÂly into ai, the MagÂnifÂiÂcent sevÂen. None of them are directÂly ai. In fact, I donât think thereâs an AI comÂpaÂny that is uh, a pure play AI comÂpaÂny thatâs listÂed, but cerÂtainÂly theyâve gotÂten a lot of their growth and a lot of their hype off of [00:27:00] jumpÂing on the AI bandÂwagÂon. If they come back, itâll impact the broadÂer US marÂkets, and thatâll cerÂtainÂly impact us as well in terms of proÂtectÂing ourÂselves from it. I dunÂno what you do except for investÂing in good qualÂiÂty comÂpaÂnies that are absurdÂly cheap.
Tony KynasÂton: wouldÂnât, for examÂple, start buyÂing govÂernÂment bonds when you think things are very overÂvalÂued in the us
Michael: Thatâs an easy quesÂtion for me âcause thatâs outÂside of my manÂdate. You know,
Tony KynasÂton: right.
Michael: us to give them their equiÂty expoÂsure. And so thatâs what
Tony KynasÂton: Mm-hmm.
Michael: is. Um, I think that if we fled to govÂernÂment bonds every time someÂthing made us nerÂvous. Um, we launched this busiÂness in 2016. We wouldâve been in govÂernÂment bonds since 2017 and missed out in fabÂuÂlous return since then. So I, I think, I think you have to temÂper your expecÂtaÂtions and also you have
Tony KynasÂton: Mm-hmm.
Michael: temÂper, your conÂcerns. Um. know, I think things are nevÂer quite as good as they might seem at first, but things are also nevÂer quite as bad as they might seem at first.
Tony KynasÂton: No, fair enough. I agree. Cam, can I invite you in to talk about AI for a sec?
Cameron: No, thatâs a realÂly bad idea. Weâll, weâll nevÂer, weâll nevÂer get outÂta here if I do that. Well, I I did have a [00:28:00] quesÂtion though. Um, talkÂing about SevÂen West Media a few weeks ago, Michael, we had Gabrielle RadzinÂsky from Send On CapÂiÂtal on the show talkÂing about the SevÂen West mergÂer with um, SXL, uh, which he is an activist against, uh, as an investor.
He doesÂnât like the sound of it. As an investor in SevÂen West Media yourÂself, what do you think about the mergÂer?
Michael: The only case I can make for it is that if sevÂen West can get the, uh, PE mulÂtiÂple, um. Through the mergÂer, then itâs worthÂwhile. But on the numÂbers, it seems to me that this should have been 60 40 in favor of, uh, sevÂen West at the least. but again, it, it, it doesÂnât matÂter what I think it matÂters whatâs gonna go ahead and whatâs gonna hapÂpen. Um, I think there are cerÂtainÂly synÂerÂgies for, for a comÂbined comÂpaÂny for sure. You take, you take comÂpetiÂtors outÂta the marÂket, then you can improve your marÂgins. I donât like it. Um, Iâm not sure thereâs a ton we can do about it. Iâm hopeÂful that weâll see a re-ratÂing from sevÂen, which is curÂrentÂly tradÂing on some [00:29:00] ridicuÂlous mulÂtiÂple, like three and a half, four times.
So if all they get is a PE re-ratÂing through the mergÂer, then maybe itâs worth it. But yeah, no, when I first saw the, saw the proÂposÂal, I was not too pleased be as diploÂmatÂic as I can posÂsiÂbly be.
Tony KynasÂton: Did you, um, did you see it was the ChanÂnel nine results last week that came out and said their comÂmerÂcial TV revÂenue was down someÂthing like 18% for the last quarÂter, I think.
Michael: I, I didÂnât say that, but I did see sevÂen say that the marÂket had softÂened.
Tony KynasÂton: Oh, it was sevÂen. Was it okay? I could, I could have that wrong. SorÂry. Yep.
Michael: No, it, it could be. Youâre right. I, I saw the sevÂen, I saw an announceÂment from sevÂen, but it could be that youâre right about nine as well. We actuÂalÂly were wonÂderÂing whether, whether nine would come in and eat sevÂenâs lunch in terms of this
Tony KynasÂton: Mm.
Michael: uh.
I, I dunÂno that Iâd say weâre hopeÂful that they would, but, um, surÂprised that it hasÂnât hapÂpened yet, I supÂpose is fair.
Tony KynasÂton: Yeah, fair enough. Um, back, back onto the ai, I guess. And its effect on the marÂket. We, as, as you know, we, we run a US show with [00:30:00] its own portÂfoÂlio that tracks our, our buys and sells and, uh, itâs, itâs doing at at least marÂket for, for a while there it was doing three times the marÂket, withÂout havÂing any AI stocks in it and Mag sevÂen stocks in It seems to me that. If all the monÂey gravÂiÂtates to the AI stocks, it does creÂate valÂue opporÂtuÂniÂties and some pretÂty good comÂpaÂnies in the rest of the marÂket. Are you startÂing to see that over there or even in AusÂtralia to a cerÂtain extent.
Michael: Yeah, look, Iâm not sure that weâve seen it in AusÂtralia. I think as far as. quite difÂferÂent, um, in, in terms of how the marÂketâs behaved. I think in AmerÂiÂca, you, you, you have cerÂtainÂly seen that youâve seen the magÂnifÂiÂcent sevÂen take a tremenÂdous amount of attenÂtion and capÂiÂtal flows, and we have found that, that there is a, a, a masÂsive pool of underÂvalÂued and I supÂpose. research stocks in the US and in the globÂal marÂkets. Our focus here, um, is the Aussie marÂkets, but as part of our research, we do look globÂalÂly and who knows, you [00:31:00] know, thereâs a decent chance at some point in the future we will launch a globÂal fund as well. Um. But I think itâs, itâs, I, I think youâre right.
I think itâs, itâs undeÂniÂable that when you get a tremenÂdous amount of hype in one parÂticÂuÂlar secÂtor, it sucks away capÂiÂtal from othÂer secÂtors. Um, and creÂates almost a, uh, a, a two, a two pace marÂket where, where all of a sudÂden youâre, youâre being forced if you want to get expoÂsure to Nvidia to pay 50 times earnÂings. WhereÂas, you know, if you can idenÂtiÂfy a manÂuÂfacÂturÂing comÂpaÂny on sinÂgle times, mulÂtiÂples, uh. Yet, it canât win. It canât, it canât find a bit in the broadÂer marÂket. So yes, I agree with you. I think, I think we saw that to some extent. Um, think localÂly with so much of the cash flows, the instiÂtuÂtionÂal cash flows, going to comÂpaÂnies like ComÂmonÂwealth Bank, um, for such a long time, and also the top 20 in genÂerÂal,
Tony KynasÂton: Hmm.
Michael: youâve seen our small and mid cap marÂket comÂpleteÂly ignored for a long, long time.
I think thatâs slowÂly startÂing to reverse a litÂtle bit now. Um, and I think you see the same thing in the US marÂkets.
Tony KynasÂton: In, in the AusÂtralian sense, that also [00:32:00] exacÂerÂbatÂed a bit because, uh, of index investÂing, so theyâre forced to CommÂBank and the broÂkers who were, or the fund manÂagers who were covÂerÂing small caps in parÂticÂuÂlar have been holÂlowed out and not just not there now.
Michael: Iâd like to say yes, Tony, but I donât think itâs quite so simÂple and, and the reaÂson I say that is because it was just index buyÂing, you would see all of the top. which I think repÂreÂsent about 60% of the ASX 200 all movÂing up in tanÂdem. And we didÂnât see that. Um, BHP has been pretÂty much flat. Um, CSL has done quite poorÂly.
Um, Iâm not even sure if itâs in the top five anyÂmore. Itâs probÂaÂbly close. Um, whereÂas ComÂmonÂwealth Bank, weâre doing fabÂuÂlousÂly. Well, I think itâs, I think itâs a comÂbiÂnaÂtion of two things. I think itâs numÂber one. Thereâs been a masÂsive flow of pasÂsive investÂing through the ETFs, and I think that has impactÂed the top 20 for sure. Um, but I think a comÂpaÂny like, like, um, ComÂmonÂwealth Bank, like ComÂmonÂwealth Bank in parÂticÂuÂlar, is espeÂcialÂly attracÂtive for the instiÂtuÂtions lookÂing to park monÂey, where they [00:33:00] need liqÂuidÂiÂty and they can feel safe havÂing investÂed in what feels like a safe stock. Um. I think beyond just the index investÂing, I think ComÂmonÂwealth, ComÂmonÂwealth Bank benÂeÂfitÂed from Indus, sorÂry, from instiÂtuÂtionÂal flows, lookÂing for someÂwhere where they can get some, um, some liqÂuidÂiÂty in the Aussie marÂkets.
Tony KynasÂton: Yeah, right. Cam, I think Iâve gone through my list of quesÂtions. Do you have anyÂthing to add for Michael? Yes.
Cameron: No, I guess weâve covÂered everyÂthing that I wantÂed to talk about. Um, I did, just talkÂing about the AI stuff though, I did have a news item today. I, I have menÂtioned, Iâm not sure if it was on our US show, but um, on one of my shows, uh, recentÂly that Jerome PowÂell, when he put out his latÂest jobs report, said that thereâs, uh, a big freeze on hirÂing.
In the US, theyâre callÂing it the Great Freeze. A lot of comÂpaÂnies are just not hirÂing uniÂverÂsiÂty [00:34:00] gradÂuÂates because they expect AI to be able to do their jobs in the next couÂple of years. And I just saw this mornÂing the DepartÂment of IndusÂtry SciÂence and Resources reportÂed that tech employÂment in AusÂtralia dropped by over 30,000 roles in FY 25, reducÂing the tech workÂforce to 949,000, the first decline since 2020.
And again. AI takÂing these jobs is the main reaÂson thatâs being givÂen. So, you know, we, we have, um, been waitÂing to see job lossÂes credÂitÂed to AI takÂing peoÂpleâs jobs. Havenât seen a lot of that in this counÂtry yet, but we are seeÂing comÂpaÂnies sayÂing, well, weâre not gonna bothÂer hirÂing peoÂple because we assume that AI is gonna be able to step in and fill that role.
And I find it difÂfiÂcult. You know, we, you were talkÂing about sadÂdle manÂuÂfacÂturÂers and, uh, your grandÂmothÂer, um, and those jobs for the [00:35:00] last couÂple of years. I do a, a show called the FuturÂisÂtic, where we, we look at all of this stuff each week. We look at AI and robotÂics mostÂly the chalÂlenge that I have when thinkÂing about, um, the next 10 years is tryÂing to figÂure out what jobs.
Will be availÂable that AI and robots wonât be able to do betÂter than a human. Iâve spent a couÂple of years tryÂing to figÂure that out because you know, in every tech revÂoÂluÂtion that weâve had since the indusÂtriÂal revÂoÂluÂtion, the new techÂnolÂoÂgy has wiped out some jobs, but replaced it with othÂer jobs. But weâre movÂing into this era where itâs very hard to work out what the jobs are that arenât gonna be able to be done betÂter, faster, cheapÂer.
With the comÂbiÂnaÂtion of AI and humanoid robots. So I am a litÂtle bit conÂcerned about kids going to uniÂverÂsiÂty right now, uh, what the job marÂket is gonna look like [00:36:00] for them when they get out in the next few years, and the impact thatâs gonna have on a whole genÂerÂaÂtion of 18 to 23 year olds, you know.
Michael: No, Cameron. I agree. I think itâs gonna be most tough for the junior workÂforce. I think. I think peoÂple are lookÂing for the first job. Even if, if, I mean, I imagÂine in white colÂlar rolls like accountÂing C and, and, and in law, a lot of the jobs that you would give a first year uni, um,
Cameron: Hmm.
Michael: the, the
Cameron: CodÂing.
Michael: you, parÂdon me.
Cameron: Hmm. Oh, so codÂing, just tech jobs obviÂousÂly is the first to go
Michael: All, all sorts of
Cameron: jourÂnalÂism.
Michael: yeah.
Cameron: Hmm.
Michael: of things that you would get your junior, you know, assoÂciate to, to, to run down inforÂmaÂtion or look up case studÂies or, or, you know, run down some paperÂwork. All that sort of stuff is gonna be by, um, manÂaged by ai. PerÂhaps youâll need, you know, one. One employÂee, um, overÂseeÂing, you know, an AI machine that can do the job of five or 10. Um, I, I wonÂder how quickÂly itâs gonna impact estabÂlished [00:37:00] roles. I, I wonÂder how much valÂue there is in creÂativÂiÂty and recÂogÂnizÂing outÂside of patÂterns. Again, I, I, I think. I think AI is excepÂtionÂal at idenÂtiÂfyÂing, um, staÂtus quo and patÂterns and, and, and what works norÂmalÂly. I think thereâs still, I think thereâs still a space for humanÂiÂty, hopeÂfulÂly, um, in idenÂtiÂfyÂing things that are outÂside of the norm. Um. OpporÂtuÂniÂties that, that, that stand out because they are not stanÂdard. Um, and, and I think youâll find, I think youâll find that in proÂfesÂsionÂal serÂvices, thereâll be a place for that sort of thinkÂing for some time.
But ultiÂmateÂly, you know, as I, as AI gets smarter and as itâs, you know, as itâs dataÂbase grows, um, I think makÂing a disÂtincÂtion between. Human enterÂprise and AI enterÂprise will become increasÂingÂly difÂfiÂcult. My my worÂry or wonÂder is if [00:38:00] AI is drawÂing from this masÂsive data set we call the worldÂwide web, which is essenÂtialÂly all of humanÂiÂtyâs best efforts. Um, saved. Saved in the cloud. What hapÂpens at some point in the future where theyâre drawÂing from the dataset that is majorÂiÂty ai, um, creÂatÂed? Is it like the snake eatÂing its own tail? Is it going to creÂate all sorts of uninÂtendÂed conÂseÂquences? I donât know, but that seems like a probÂlem for anothÂer day. I.
Cameron: They call it the, the dead interÂnet theÂoÂry. Itâs, uh, the interÂnet is being proÂduced by, itâs already hapÂpenÂing. SomeÂthing like 50% of the conÂtent on the interÂnet now has been proÂduced by ai, not by humans. So weâre already startÂing to see the, is it Ura? Boro
Tony KynasÂton: Ords.
Cameron: the snake Ro yeah. The snake eatÂing its own tail.
Michael: SayÂing, I
Cameron: Yeah.
Michael: worÂry about it now. Cameron,
Cameron: No, well worÂry. Itâs a, itâs a bit like the sevÂen West mergÂer. Um, itâs gonna hapÂpen.
Michael: you can do, right?
Tony KynasÂton: Yeah.
Cameron: This no budÂget, like [00:39:00] itâs, and itâs also my perÂspecÂtive about the, uh, the colÂlapse of the Mag sevÂen or the potenÂtial colÂlapse of the AI marÂket. Yeah. What Tonyâs taught me over the last six years from an investÂing perÂspecÂtive is we deal with realÂiÂty when it hapÂpens.
We donât progÂnosÂtiÂcate, we donât have a crysÂtal ball. We just deal with it the best we can as it hapÂpens, right. So,
Michael: Yeah,
Tony KynasÂton: You play the cards
Cameron: no.
Michael: yeah, progÂnosÂtiÂcaÂtion is where the most fun conÂverÂsaÂtions hapÂpen. But if
Tony KynasÂton: it is, yeah.
Michael: monÂey and weâre talkÂing about livÂing our lives, youâve gotÂta deal with whatâs in front of you today.
Tony KynasÂton: CorÂrect.
Cameron: Yeah.
thatâs all you can do.
Tony KynasÂton: Yeah.
Cameron: Well, Michael, I think thatâs all we have for you. Thanks so much. ConÂgratÂuÂlaÂtions on the conÂtinÂued sucÂcess of Collins Street Asset ManÂageÂment and, uh, hope itâs not three years before we get back on. Weâll have to get you back on for anothÂer update in a year or so.
Michael: And Tony, always thrilled to hang out with you guys.
Tony KynasÂton: Michael. Good to see you again.
Cameron: Cheers, Michael.
Bernard: Q A V is a checkÂlist-based sysÂtem of valÂue investÂing develÂoped by Tony âKhyneÂston. over 25 years. To learn more about how it [00:40:00] works and how you can learn the sysÂtem, visÂit our webÂsite, Q A V PodÂcast dot com dot A U.
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