QAV AU 842 — Fresh Meat By Candlelight

AU 842 AUDIO

[00:00:00]

Cameron: We’ll have to do it again Wel­come to QAV Aus­tralia 8 42 It’s the 21st of Octo­ber 2025 tk We’ve been talk­ing off air about Mar­tin Scors­ese We’ll have to do it after hours

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: Um how are you You well

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Yes. Thank you.

Cameron: today I am sport­ing the fit as the kids say t‑shirt birth­day Present from your­self The Rules of Fight Club I wore this when it arrived on my birth­day I wore it into Kung fu when I still had black eyes and every­thing It was it was per­fect but then the black eye went away and it does­n’t make as much sense

Tony Kynas­ton: Well,

Cameron: By the way

Tony Kynas­ton: It’s, it

Cameron: thank you Size L It was I love it It’s size L though I’m a I’m a size s now Just let­ting you know I mean I can still wear it but it’s

Tony Kynas­ton: You’re not a

Cameron: I’m a size S I’m a size SI can get away with S or Ram depends on the fit but yeah Yeah no if I go buy a shirt now I look at an S first

Tony Kynas­ton: Wow.

Cameron: the S is too tight [00:01:00] I’ll get an M But yeah I’ve gone from Excel down to S in the last year It’s crazy

Tony Kynas­ton: is

Cameron: Do you wan­na see my abs

Tony Kynas­ton: No, the first, first rule of QIV is we don’t show our abs. We don’t talk about them. First rule is we don’t talk about ’em. Sec­ond rule is we don’t show them.

Cameron: Oh come on It’s no fun Um yeah All right well we’ll talk about kung fu lat­er Um and karate actu­al­ly we’re gonna start with this cause I got a nice email just before we went to air from Jeff Long-term mem­ber down from Mel­bourne Good morn­ing Cam Hope the fam­i­ly tk busi­ness life and Kung fu all going well As always real­ly enjoy­ing the recent pod­cast We’ve been trav­el­ing recent­ly and had a few catch up episodes to lis­ten to hav­ing done Karate for a long time includ­ing some com Repeat­ing I can relate to your smack in the face Had plen­ty of cracked ribs as well as a dis­lo­cat­ed shoul­der with my QAV port­fo­lio Hav­ing been around now since maybe 2022 maybe longer this year I’m real­ly get­ting to under­stand val­ue invest­ing QAV style In my ear­ly years my port­fo­lio [00:02:00] banged around the sleazy wine bar into the mar­ket for a long time With very aver­age per­for­mance com­bined with inat­ten­tion to rule one and not updat­ing stop-loss­es I think at one stage my port­fo­lio was down to 5 This year I’m see­ing the shiny end Like many QAV sub­scribers right now my port­fo­lio is hov­er­ing around 90 I have four stocks over a hun­dred per­cent and MLX in par­tic­u­lar is just over 200 I don’t review annu­al reports some­times check on ASX announce­ments fol­low the sys­tem and reg­u­lar­ly update my 10 rule Ones noth­ing too com­plex Whilst I’m under no illu­sion that some of my over­priced min­ing stocks will con­tin­ue to grow at some stage revert to the mean it is reas­sur­ing to know that the sys­tem works all the best and keep it com­ing Jeff Thank you Jeff

Tony Kynas­ton: Thanks Jeff. Maybe you and Jeff should get togeth­er and see which, which is bet­ter. Kung fu or karate

Cameron: Yeah we’ll have a show­down Bruce Lee

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: I was gonna say at the uh Col­i­se­um [00:03:00] Bruce Lee and Chuck Chuck Nor­ris style Right Okay I’ve shaved all the hair on my chest so he can’t pull it out but that’s what Bruce did to Chuck So just keep your hair your hairy chest chef Alright well speak­ing of invest­ing wow What a week What a week It has been two weeks real­ly since we did our last reg­u­lar show We we had Gabrielle on last week which peo­ple seem to enjoy Thank you to Gabrielle again for com­ing on and Trent for sug­gest­ing him Um well Trump crashed the mar­ket on my birth­day by talk­ing about tar­iffs in the us but it rebound­ed Uh but what did­n’t rebound as ERD Oh my God ERD erode Were down 34 In a day on the 17th of Octo­ber then down anoth­er 6 That was on Fri­day when the mar­ket reopened yes­ter­day I haven’t been game to look today You looked ERD[00:04:00]

Tony Kynas­ton: again today

Cameron: Oh oh my Got­ten him cap­tain Uh you know that Do you get that

Tony Kynas­ton: No

Cameron: um Ken­ny Rogers show They had a Cap­tain Kre­on Do you remem­ber Cap­tain Kre­on

Tony Kynas­ton: do remem­ber Cap­tain Cra­mond

Cameron: The space the the sci­en­tist on the plane would be man cap­tain That was the only Ger­man I know which Chris­sy tells me is not real good Ger­man But um

Tony Kynas­ton: uh

Cameron: yeah they so um put out Guid­ance erode which I real­ly love like who­ev­er wrote the head­line for this deserves a raise Erode Strength­en­ing focus on a NZ oppor­tu­ni­ties was the head­line of the guid­ance So why did the mar­ket drop 34 and then anoth­er 6 and then more again today if they’re strength­en­ing their focus Well because the small [00:05:00] print was the US mar­ket isn’t real­ly work­ing as well as we hoped

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: They are sort of pulling back on their US mar­ket focus E Road expects to record an impair­ment to car­ry­ing val­ue of intan­gi­ble assets relat­ing to the North Amer­i­can region of up to 150 mil­lion Their FY 26 guid­ance they TriMed well not mas­sive­ly from 205 mil­lion down to 1 97 to 2 0 3 annu­al­ized recur­ring rev­enue down from 188 mil­lion to 1 75 180 3 But along with this David Ken­ni­son stepped down from his role as CO CEO effec­tive the end of this month to spend time with fam­i­ly and pur­sued the next chap­ter in his career So that’s nice

Tony Kynas­ton: very mag­nan­i­mous of him was­n’t it

Cameron: Yeah it was very and they also by the way in Sep­tem­ber we we did announce a while back um I think a year ago that their CFO had resigned They’ve just announced a new [00:06:00] CFO Kiara McGuigan effec­tive sec­ond to Sep­tem­ber 2025 So they were 10 11 months with an offi­cial CFO which is inter­est­ing So she said a great first month on the job

Tony Kynas­ton: Ah

Cameron: Wel­come to the wel­come to the team Your first job is Yeah Issue new guid­ance Are those options that you got Eh they’re under­wa­ter any­way so they still though haven’t bro­ken Last I checked any of my cell trig­gers but I haven’t checked today So uh let’s have a look

Tony Kynas­ton: can I just add to that So I I read read the release read you know search the news could­n’t find any­thing real­ly would lead to that much of a down­grade And I sort of thought maybe peo­ple are think­ing that road user charges are not gonna come in as quick­ly as they thought they were Um that sup­po­si­tion I don’t know but it seems to be around the North [00:07:00] Amer­i­can mar­ket um and their exit from it but buried almost at the bot­tom of the release a in a sub­head­ing called Update to FY 26 guid­ance blah blah blah North Amer­i­can mar­kets remain chal­leng­ing et cetera et cetera It says com­bined with a large lega­cy North Amer­i­can Trans­port cus­tomer not renew­ing their con­tract in Feb­ru­ary 2026 is expect­ed to lead to a slow­er growth rate in their busi­ness this year Hang on

Cameron: Oh

Tony Kynas­ton: back you you’re get­ting into the North Amer­i­can mar­ket you’ve buried at the bot­tom of a press release that a key cus­tomer isn’t resign­ing and you’ve said noth­ing more about it We don’t know that a mate­r­i­al cus­tomer We don’t know why they’re not renew­ing with you Were they the only cus­tomer Were they was their con­tract income pay­ing for keep­ing staff there and expand­ing into the us Has that con­tract gone to a [00:08:00] com­peti­tor It’s um bear­ing the lead to say the least I sus­pect that’s what’s behind this down­grade I mean all those oth­er things are mate­r­i­al but much Okay The CO CEO stood down Okay The Slight decline in guid­ance fore­cast I could I was scratch­ing my head to know why it fell off a cliff And then I get that at the bot­tom of the announce­ment and I’m think­ing hang on They’re get­ting out­ta the us They’ve lost a big con­tract there Why Tell us more

Cameron: So bad news cell Tony

Tony Kynas­ton: no bad news does not sell but as Gabriel said last week as War­ren Buf­fet said for­ev­er if you have bad news fess up Soon as

Cameron: Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: on the front

Cameron: Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: take a hit But it’s a much less of a hit than hid­ing it and then hav­ing it come out lat­er

Cameron: Is it a

Tony Kynas­ton: until an I mean eeros a small com­pa­ny prob­a­bly isn’t cov­ered much by ana­lyst But wait until an ana­lyst comes out and puts out a paper say­ing [00:09:00] exact­ly what I’ve just said What’s the sto­ry behind this US con­tract that has­n’t been renewed then digs a bit fur­ther and finds out it’s it’s not great news And then they pub­lish it It’s a dou­ble wham­my

Cameron: So we we do have a um you know a red flag for sud­den C lev­el res­ig­na­tions This is a co CEO Um do you red flag this for all of that or do we just abide by the three point and it’s way above Its like it’s still it was a it was a like it was like a super­star in our port­fo­lio I have it in the dum­my and I have it in a light port­fo­lio It’s now it’s still 12 up from when I bought it only in July Like if it had­n’t gone up 70 and then come back I I’d still be like 12 since July That’s not bad I’m not gonna

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: I’m not gonna com­plain about that Still falling though

Tony Kynas­ton: take off when when the pro­duc­tiv­i­ty round table Ha and what a has­n’t that been a [00:10:00] a huge fire­works on the Aus­tralian eco­nom­ic land­scape the pro­duc­tiv­i­ty

Cameron: Oh I’m I feel so much more pro­duc­tive I don’t know about you but gee I’m just killing it I am

Tony Kynas­ton: more pro­duc­tive cause I have to do much more by myself rather than get­ting some­one like some­thing else to do it pro­duc­tive­ly But um but yeah like one of their rec­om­men­da­tions was a road user charge for EVs So it’s

Cameron: Right

Tony Kynas­ton: when was the com­mis­sion I don’t know months ago Noth­ing’s hap­pened Um I the the E road took off after that because peo­ple real­ized that they were in the box seat to pro­vide the track­ing devices to meter the road user charges and charge peo­ple so there was a fair bit of froth in in the share price any­way So prob­a­bly been some it’s been I think it’s ana­lysts going yeah don’t need to stick here Um seen the road user charg­ing go through the prob­lem in Amer­i­ca I’m out

Cameron: back to my ques­tion Bad news sell

Tony Kynas­ton: Bad use does­n’t sell I don’t think it’s a red flag I mean there’s there’s [00:11:00] still one CEO a co CEO He’s still there yeah it was prob­a­bly more of a red flag when the CFO resigned but now they’ve replaced them It it may not be so No I look it’s

Cameron: You gave it a clean bill of health when the CFO resigned I have a note on it

Tony Kynas­ton: I

Cameron: cause it was a it was a it was a you know a well it was han­dled you know it was­n’t like a sud­den show of the door kind of thing you know

Tony Kynas­ton: a San­tos

Cameron: Wow We’ll get to that

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm we might

Cameron: But before we get to that SRG just as a coun­ter­point up 35 in the last 30 days

Tony Kynas­ton: Pret­ty good

Cameron: um SRG Glob­al pro­vid­ed that the comp this is on the 14th of Octo­ber This announce­ment SRG Glob­al pro­vid­ed that the com­pa­ny to acquire a hun­dred per­cent of Tams the com­pa­ny that makes Tim Tams no but would­n’t that be great Would­n’t you love Oh my God I would­n’t be able to show you my abs if I owned the com­pa­ny that owns Tim Tams I tell you God I love Tim Tams I [00:12:00] swear like It’s oh

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay

Cameron: I I can’t buy em It’s one of those things I can’t buy em and have one I’ll eat the whole box Tams and mal­te­ses they’re just uh crack

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: Uh no TAMS is an end-to-end diver­si­fied marine infra­struc­ture ser­vices part­ner with a 25 plus year his­to­ry and full self-per­formed capa­bil­i­ty My priest told me that would make you go blind but that’s anoth­er sto­ry The acqui­si­tion implies an FY 26 EBITDA mul­ti­ple 2.7 times EBIT mul­ti­ple of 3.2 times and is expect­ed to be 25 EPSA accre­tive to FY 26 earn­ings Pres syn­er­gies I love a good prey TAMS is an expert in design engi­neer­ing con­struc­tion main­te­nance and reme­di­a­tion ser­vices through long-term rela­tion­ships with own­ers and users of crit­i­cal port and marine infra­struc­ture So con­grat­u­la­tions SRG And how are they doing today They’re oh still going up [00:13:00] Still going up

Tony Kynas­ton: so this is inter­est­ing because um I mean it’s it’s cer­tain­ly had acqui­si­tions in the past so it’s a bit of an engi­neer­ing com­pa­ny roll up But you know it’s one of the few few occa­sions when the acquir­er goes up after an acqui­si­tion often­times it’s obvi­ous­ly the tar­get com­pa­ny This one was­n’t list­ed but um lots of lots of fund man­agers are skep­ti­cal of acqui­si­tions because they’re often over­paid for but um this one was received real­ly pos­i­tive­ly so uh good on them

Cameron: I added them to the dum­my and then the light port­fo­lio in August of 24 They’re up 170 Hun­dred and 90 Uh

Tony Kynas­ton: In a year

Cameron: you’re in a bit you’re in change Yeah So good job to them So it’s you know some go up some go down Speak­ing of going down

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm

Cameron: Finn got a Please explain On my birth­day From from the ASX

Tony Kynas­ton: the

Cameron: Yeah yeah yeah From [00:14:00] Pauline No it’s from um Barn­a­by Joyce

Tony Kynas­ton: say there’s a bit of bit of please explain­ing going on in the Nation­al Par­ty at the moment Isn’t there

Cameron: Uh that’s good stuff Um uh their response For Findy This is uh in ref­er­ence to your let­ter dat­ed 9th of Octo­ber 2025 Findy Lim­it­ed pro­vides the fol­low­ing respons­es to your queries in num­ber order One The com­pa­ny is not aware of any infor­ma­tion con­cern­ing it that it has that has not been announced to the mar­ket which if known by some in the mar­ket could explain the recent trad­ing in its secu­ri­ties Num­ber two na Num­ber three The Board of Findy is aware that the for­mer vice chair­man of its Indi­an sub­sidiary has post­ed false and mis­lead­ing com­ments about the com­pa­ny on social media Findy can con­firm that it will be tak­ing legal action relat­ing to the social media post So uh some­body in our Face­book group did share a [00:15:00] screen­shot of that

Tony Kynas­ton: if they’re tak­ing legal action just be care­ful before you re it

Cameron: Yes Well they did say it had been delet­ed or some­thing but uh yeah So he’s been spread­ing rumors The shares have con­tin­ued to fall after they came out with this though

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm

Cameron: Um so I’m not sure the mar­kets buy­ing it

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm

Cameron: went up a bit

Tony Kynas­ton: what it says what did you buy What the what was he head of

Cameron: Yeah The uh

Tony Kynas­ton: bank

Cameron: for­mer vice chair­man of the Indi­um sub­sidiary

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm

Cameron: Hon­est­ly I don’t I did­n’t pay much atten­tion I did­n’t recall cause it seemed like gos­sip and innu­en­do but it it did it sug­gest­ed that there was some fak­ery going on with their num­bers in India et cetera et cetera But the shares have are down mas­sive­ly And um in our p tak­en a Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: sor­ry to inter­rupt Um putting putting that as aside I went through there Most recent announce­ment the [00:16:00] the share price went down again when they put out a uh an update recent­ly And there were a cou­ple of things in there which I had­n’t picked up on before Now I’m not say­ing that I haven’t announced them before cause I don’t fol­low this stock But uh in a they put out a busi­ness update um recent­ly and the shares went down 11 after the update went out there was a cou­ple of things in there which I admit I had­n’t heard before So they may be announc­ing them for the first time or they may I may just not have picked up on it before But any­way there was a cou­ple of dis­rup­tions to their plan so there was a sig­nif­i­cant dis­rup­tion Uh first of all due to relays in secur­ing ATM roll­out fund­ing and that was com­pound­ed with 560 ATMs tak­en offline pri­or to their planned roll­out replace­ment as yet those machines have not been replaced neg­a­tive­ly impact­ing rev­enue And then there was anoth­er dis­rup­tion for 45 days dur­ing the inte­gra­tion of an online uh sys­tem I think it’s some kind of online bank­ing it dig­i­tal [00:17:00] com­pa­ny which depress rev­enue as well So again um you know hats off to them for at least putting those two things in their recent busi­ness update But that’s the maybe that’s the first time they’ve come out in which case the mar­ket went okay and saw that and dropped the share price 10 maybe it’s a sum­ma­ry of what’s been out before But um you know if you’re going out say­ing there’s been two dis­rup­tions to your plans um prob­a­bly the obvi­ous rea­son why the share price has gone down I would’ve thought In response to the ASX query But any­way look the the busi­ness pro­gress­es it’s it you know every­thing else seems to be going okay It’s it’s um they they plan to get a bank­ing license They’re rolling out a lot of ATMs in India and they plan to list part of the busi­ness on the Indi­an Stock Exchange So it’s broad­ly what they said they were gonna do last last year and and what got the share price mov­ing It looks like they’ve hit a few speed bumps along the way

Cameron: Well too late for me [00:18:00] I had to sell them out of our port­fo­lio I think they were up like 200 at one stage and I had to rule one them So

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm

Cameron: and which led to a con­ver­sa­tion in our Face­book group peo­ple talk­ing about maybe you know revis­it­ing the idea that we we have on a reg­u­lar basis Maybe we should re we should sell a stock we should have a rule to sell after a a stock declines from a high point What would Tony say And I said I know what Tony would say Tony would say do what­ev­er helps you sleep at night

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: Um how­ev­er I’m not gonna do that And I and as a counter exam­ple I mean we have lots we we used to use FMG but I used to new em which was Par­en­ti If you look at par­en­t’s um his­to­ry just over the last year it it went up dra­mat­i­cal­ly from Sep­tem­ber 24 to the begin­ning of 25 then dropped 23 Now if we had a rule to sell 20 below a new peak we would’ve [00:19:00] sold it but then it bounced back up and then it dropped anoth­er 35 in March Could have sold it again then it bounced back up and then it kept going and kept going and kept going and has not stopped It is um up let me see PRN since I added it in Oh god I’ve got like 10 sev­en port­fo­lio sev­en parcels of this um may may 24 was my first pur­chase It’s up 177 That was for the dum­my port­fo­lio Since then my most recent pur­chase was just Sep­tem­ber This year it’s up 14 but um yeah it’s uh oh that was for my super Oh I got anoth­er port­fo­lio of my super going back to Novem­ber 24 which is up 129 Um but yeah it’s so it’s like the coun­ter­point to that right It’s it’s had big drops but then recov­ered [00:20:00] mas­sive­ly so

Tony Kynas­ton: look it’s gonna be a ques­tion which we’re gonna face and I sus­pect the next 12 months at some stage because the

Cameron: yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: been going up you know gonna say crazi­ly it’s been going up A lot of our stocks are at highs and even­tu­al­ly they won’t be at highs That’s just you know no tree gross to the sky Math­e­mat­i­cal­ly it’s not pos­si­ble Some of them will come back for what­ev­er rea­sons which is why we have rules So like I own Par­en­ti I’ll declare that um ide­al­ly I wan­na hold it for the rest of my life So

Cameron: Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: sell it when it drops 20 or 30 when it’s been

Cameron: Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: for me It’s a good

Cameron: Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: to keep hold­ing it So the down­side is you know I I don’t own Findy but if I did I got rid of Findy Um

Cameron: Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: I’m not gonna hold it for the rest of my life But the upside is you know Par­ente could be a 20 bag­ger We just don’t know um which is but if it is if’s gonna if Just dra­mat­i­cal­ly the wharf the loss we took from Findy Um so whilst it’s hard I mean this this is what the [00:21:00] sys­tem’s for

Cameron: Mm-hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: if we just trust human psy­chol­o­gy things get

Cameron: Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: mis­takes maybe sell­ing findy now is a mis­take It’s down Maybe they’ll go back up again But if it does no doubt it’ll come back up on our buy list Or maybe it’ll come back up on our buy list and there’ll be a buy again So not too wor­ried about that

Cameron: Yeah like the as you said the rules are there to pre­vent emo­tion get­ting in the way of ratio­nal deci­sions Um we do have cell trig­gers in place if you know to to cut our loss­es when things seem to be hit­ting uh major hur­dles But at the same time we’re try­ing to buy good busi­ness­es when we can get them at a dis­count and ride them as long as we can We as long as we can

Tony Kynas­ton: And that’s the issue cam is is it’s real­ly hard to know when a stock is at its peak Um a lot of peo­ple have done you know [00:22:00] lots of work on that and maybe it’s know when it gets to be a cer­tain pro­por­tion above our iv we have to sell it Or maybe when it’s so far down the buy list it was­n’t the buy list but now the price has tak­en it off the buy list There could be a rule around that date I haven’t found one and nei­ther is any­one else Um some peo­ple I know who lis­ten to the show use like a set of a five year month­ly graphs They might use a three year or a one year month­ly graph Which means that as you say they got out­ta findy when it was a at a high­er price but they also got out­ta print­ing when it was at a high­er price

Cameron: Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: and print­’s gone on and Findy has­n’t So yeah So um I’m not say­ing any of this is per­fect I’m just say­ing it’s worked for me

Cameron: Yeah But do what you need to do to sleep at night

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah And tell us your results If you

Cameron: like me Take sleep­ing tablets Uh

Tony Kynas­ton: if if you’re get­ting bet­ter results than than we talk about then yeah Let us know

Cameron: What have you got in your uh list of talk­ing points I’ll take a break

Tony Kynas­ton: [00:23:00] Okay Uh what have I got Let me have a look I won­dered whether we should put a red flag on SXL South­ern Cross Media the inter­view last week cause Gabriel raised some good points about um About a kind of takeover that may not be the best for share­hold­ers Uh and you know I know red flags are there for a par­tic­u­lar rea­son that the CFO resigns or the CEO resigns unex­pect­ed­ly and it looks like they’re resign­ing cause they did­n’t want to um abide by what the com­pa­ny was doing but I think Gabriel made a good argu­ment to say that this takeover was­n’t in the best inter­est of South­ern Cross share­hold­ers and it should get put to a vote It’s not going to be And I there there was an arti­cle in today’s um around that say­ing that the ASX now going to change their or is propos­ing to change their rules to give investors more say on [00:24:00] these kinds of deals Main­ly I mean maybe Gabrielle’s hav­ing an effect but Mabb main­ly because of the James Hardy um F sit­u­a­tion where sort of deal they want­ed to buy an Amer­i­can com­pa­ny and issued a lot of shares with­out ask­ing the James Hardy investors whether they want­ed to do that now the the ASX is now say­ing that uh well they’re float­ing a rule change that if you propo if the com­pa­ny that’s acquir­ing pro­pos­es to issue more than 25 shares to do so it should go to a share­hold­er vote cur­rent­ly it’s a hun­dred per­cent is the is the hur­dle and they’ll keep the a hun­dred per­cent in place for small com­pa­nies So because you know com­pa­nies um like small­er min­ers will often um issue a lot of shares to take over anoth­er com­pa­ny But hav­ing said that even so I mean why should­n’t the share­hold­ers of a small min­ing com­pa­ny get a vote on whether they should do that or not So any­way um but yeah I I thought we might put a red flag on SXL cam What do you think

Cameron: Well I’ve already got a note list­ed that it’s under­go­ing the merg­er with [00:25:00] Sev­en West Media which to me is sort of a qua­si

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: Like

Tony Kynas­ton: any­way would we

Cameron: yeah like I I tend to stay away from those things Like it’s nice to like nice if you already own it when they go into merg­er talks but um yeah it just gets too messy and com­pli­cat­ed when they’re in the mid­dle of it It’s already announced so yeah It’s sort of a not a red flag maybe an orange flag but Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay

Cameron: Already

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah All

Cameron: But my ques­tion was gonna be if we were to put a red flag on it because of that what’s the rule Like red flags need a rule

Tony Kynas­ton: sand and cap­i­tal is uh

Cameron: Yeah What­ev­er Gabrielle says we just keep a list of Gabrielle’s tar­gets

Tony Kynas­ton: Well he was he talked about karu and ener­gy and I think they’ve just become a buy sor­ry a sell on the buy list as well so what­ev­er he was agi­tat­ing for there looks like it has­n’t come to pass and they’ve crashed as well

Cameron: Hmm Gabrielle’s [00:26:00] you’re in Gabrielle’s sites

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: Okay what else

Tony Kynas­ton: What else have I got I’ve got um I’m gonna I’m gonna claim a win here cam The gov­ern­men­t’s back flipped on Its super­charg­ers super changes Sor­ry They’re not going to not gonna tax unre­al­ized gains for large

Cameron: What

Tony Kynas­ton: accounts Yep Yeah So this is this is I was gonna talk about it last week but we had the inter­view with Gabriel so um I’ll raise it now Peo­ple will have heard about this but after two years of heat­ed debate the Albanese gov­ern­ment has aban­doned its plan to tax unre­al­ized gains in super­an­nu­a­tion replac­ing it with a more bal­anced frame­work From July 1st 2026 earn­ings on bal­ances between 3 mil­lion and 10 mil­lion will be taxed at 30 and earn­ings above 10 mil­lion at 40 Both thresh­olds will be indexed and only real­ized gains will be count­ed So uh it’s a that’s a win for com­mon sense So good on them for Com­ing around to their sens­es because with the man­date [00:27:00] that the cur­rent gov­ern­ment has they could eas­i­ly have put that through the Sen­ate there’s I think there’s been enough peo­ple like me say­ing Hey come on this is is an unwork­able approach to the issue that they’ve changed That’s so good on them and good on us for fight­ing about it All those Tik­Tok users who did­n’t like it bloody hell

Cameron: Well done rich rich men Con­grat­u­la­tions on your rare vic­to­ry in soci­ety to keep more of your wealth That’s a real it’s a real mile­stone in human his­to­ry Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: did you see the secret pho­to of Trump Arch that’s going up next

Cameron: yeah yeah yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah For the

Cameron: Mod­eled on the arc the tri­umph

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: Uh

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh un

Cameron: An arch for rich white men

Tony Kynas­ton: tax gains vic­to­ry arch

Cameron: uh

Tony Kynas­ton: Any­way it’s good to have a win

Cameron: speak­ing of unre­al­ized gains a NZ group halts share buy­back redi­rects funds to [00:28:00] strate­gic revamp They had announced you know we have been talk­ing about share buy­backs a bit on the show and you had made the point as had some oth­er peo­ple that uh just an announce­ment does­n’t mean any­thing cause some­times they don’t go ahead Well here’s a big exam­ple

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm

Cameron: They had announced an $800 mil­lion share buy­back and have decid­ed they’re not gonna do that They’re going to achieve $800 mil­lion in cost sav­ings before tax through job reduc­tions and restruc­tur­ing So

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah Build

Cameron: there you go There’s a win

Tony Kynas­ton: tri­umphal arch We’ll get the 800 peo­ple who are los­ing No sor­ry I should­n’t light of that It’s not good Uh I’m a

Cameron: you gonna get them to build the arch or you gonna Yeah Uh yeah We’ve got some good news and some bad news Bad news is you don’t have a job The good news is

Tony Kynas­ton: You are now C‑F-M-E-W‑U mem­bers

Cameron: [00:29:00] uh so what do you think

Tony Kynas­ton: Well I do I I mean I’m an a NZ share­hold­er so um I think the deci­sions that are being tak­en by Mr Math­os the new CEO are being uh look like they’re good and they’re being reward­ed by the mar­ket The the mar­ket fret­ted He was gonna cut the div­i­dend which is one of the rea­sons to own a NZ a you know it’s a high yield­ing stock Um and he’s come out and said no I’d rather pay that div­i­dend than for­get about the buy­back And the mar­ket went y yeah y So most my shares in a NZ are up quite a lot this year So I I dun­no the exact amount 20 to 30 suits me fine Um so I mean there’s been some analy­sis after the Uh investor day They did last Mon­day to say that their you know as as so Humphrey would say they were bold tar­gets very brave Um but

Cameron: brave

Tony Kynas­ton: CEO’s meant to set bold brave tar­gets What did

Cameron: Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: he was the guy who said he wrote good the great Jim Colls He said she did­n’t have bold hairy [00:30:00] auda­cious goals And this

Cameron: BAG

Tony Kynas­ton: of those BHAGs Yeah So um yeah I don’t have a prob­lem with that If they’re auda­cious let’s you know aim for the stars and hit the roof But I’m I’m glad they’re mak­ing sen­si­ble deci­sions now Now that’s I’m putting aside the cut­ting of staff That’s always a hard one I dun­no if that’s right or not Char­lie Munger used to say every busi­ness has a right num­ber of staff and some­times it’s above and some­times it’s below So I don’t know But um yeah I I was pleased to see that uh things like the a NZ one plat­form I think it was called is is being um you know put to bed Um it’s it was always promised to be deliv­ered soon soon soon under the pre­vi­ous man­age­ment And now it’s uh it looks like they’re going to deliv­er a front hand only and they’ll do some work on the sys­tems down the track which is not a bad out of pro­gress­ing on an end­less going nowhere So that was good to hear Um uh yeah they they’re [00:31:00] promis­ing more syn­er­gies from the Sun­corp merg­er So the Sun­corp no it was Sun Sun­corp yeah the Queens­land Bank Any­way so there’s um lots of lots of things to like about a at the moment I think I

Cameron: I’ve held it in my super since Novem­ber 23 It’s up 46 and in I’ve got anoth­er par­cel since July of this year It’s up 22 And uh yeah food it’s in the dum­my port­fo­lio It’s in all of the light port­fo­lios and it’s always sur­pris­es me when you when I buy one of those like large large cap

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: tel­cos I nev­er expect them to go any­where But uh every now and again they do So there you go

Tony Kynas­ton: how about that They’re on their buy list and they go up lot

Cameron: Well there’s been plen­ty of times when I’ve bought them or Tel­stra or NAB or Mac­quar­ie and they just shit the bed So you know [00:32:00] occa­sion­al­ly they win Uh it’s but it’s one like one of those things when I see them and they’re and and they’re the next thing to buy and I’m like oh God this isn’t gonna end well but I’m gonna do it cause that’s what it says and Nice when it works out

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah Yeah No I’m quite pleased to hold them And it was one I remem­ber last week when Gabriel said they were the one bank he should­n’t hold And I was like oh so maybe maybe we need the Gabriel Inverse rule We red flag things he buys and we buy things he diss

Cameron: Uh the old inverse Gabriel Yeah Well uh we did hint at this before San­tos CFO Sher­ry Dewey duh I’m not sure how she pro­nounces that Ey resigns Um they’ve appoint­ed Lach­lan Har­ris as act­ing CFO She’s resigned to pur­sue oth­er inter­ests like uh maybe arts and crafts Not sure uh [00:33:00] exact­ly what it is but um yeah sort of a sud­den res­ig­na­tion Tony of a CFO uh did she give a leav­ing date The press release I’ve got does­n’t men­tion one Gone gone

Tony Kynas­ton: gone gone

Cameron: left the build­ing

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah So there was an arti­cle about it in today’s paper in the AFR and uh yeah she was asked sum­ma­riz­ing it She went to the CEO and said look I’m just I’m not a good fit here style is not your style He said okay let give don’t resign Gimme some time to change she went I don’t know if she’d also writ­ten to the board at the same time Any­way the the board the chair­man con­tact­ed her recent­ly and said sor­ry you should leave So she’s gone

Cameron: So con­nect­ed at all to the takeover col­laps­ing in Sep­tem­ber do you think

Tony Kynas­ton: No um she has well we don’t know exact­ly what’s going on She’s inti­mat­ed that there was a cul­tur­al prob­lem with the CEO that [00:34:00] his cul­ture was­n’t her cul­ture So

Cameron: Right

Tony Kynas­ton: that could be it But I I think there’s now be well let me read it from the AFR today There’s a cou­ple of there was an art arti­cle about it Let me find it Uh so that’s what’s hap­pened A cou­ple of com­ments about it Um where is it now Uh gee I should have high­light­ed my notes Um ju I’ll I’ll pro­nounce it pho­net­i­cal­ly Jui is the last lat­est senior San­tos fig­ure to exit the com­pa­ny Brett Woods quit as Chief oper­at­ing Offi­cer of the takeover as Chief exec­u­tive at the Stokes Fam­i­ly back to Beach Ener­gy and 2023 Jane Nor­man vice Pres­i­dent for strat­e­gy left that year to run Coop­er Ener­gy now Ampli­tude Ener­gy and due he declined to sign a non-dis­clo­sure agree­ment offered to her by Spence who’s the chair­man which would’ve allowed her to retain a so-called good leave sta­tus sta­tus typ­i­cal­ly brings sub­stan­tial finan­cial ben­e­fits on depar­ture [00:35:00] so it’s she’s only there for a year So I dun­no whether there would’ve been sub­stan­tial ben­e­fits per­haps there were But if she did­n’t wan­na sign an NDA in exchange for mon­ey then that’s also say­ing that she’s feel­ing pret­ty um Pret­ty emo­tion­al about the sit­u­a­tion I guess is prob­a­bly a good way to put it So yeah I think it’s time for a red flag On San­tos they’ve had a co they’ve had depar­tures they’ve had um I think this is the sec­ond time an acqui­si­tion has fall­en over and that’s always a bad sign I mean be fair the acqui­si­tions could have fall­en over because um one of them the most recent one was by a Sau­di com­pa­ny And so they may not have got­ten all the approvals through the gov­ern­ment to acquire San­tos Um but it’s also pos­si­ble that an acquir­er had a good look at the books clos­er than we can see is investors at arm length arms length and when Oh okay You know we we don’t like what we see [00:36:00] knows Um but it’s not a good look Two failed acqui­si­tions key staff leav­ing It’s prob­a­bly time to red flag this I I dun­no what else I dun­no what else they can do Not to red flag it real­ly

Cameron: Yeah speak­ing of red flags Don­ald Trump Red flagged uh Kevin Rudd today

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah Well every­one yeah that think every­one in Aus­tralia did that when he he got rid of him as Pre­mier as Prime Min­is­ter So now it’s spread to the us

Cameron: What a great line he’s sit­ting

Tony Kynas­ton: Hump what did Bar­ry Humphrey say about Kevin Broth­er Aus­tralia has elect­ed a den­tist

Cameron: now He came into pow­er in a very strong strong land­slide but uh I just love the fact that he’s the Aus­tralian ambas­sador to the us He’s sit­ting at the table and Trump’s Trump says where is he Is he still work­ing for you Albanese then point­ed to Rudd who was sit­ting on the oppo­site side of the table [00:37:00] Rudd who once called Trump a trad­ed to the west told the pres­i­dent That hap­pened before I took this posi­tion I don’t like you either and I prob­a­bly nev­er will Trump said did­n’t know who he was a minute ago Then he says I don’t like you either and I prob­a­bly nev­er will So

Tony Kynas­ton: So

Cameron: there you go

Tony Kynas­ton: how long can that guy keep his job then

Cameron: Yeah I would­n’t think very long And what’s he been doing if the pres­i­dent does­n’t even know who he is They like the Prime Min­is­ter How does the Prime Min­is­ter Have a meet­ing with the pres­i­dent

Tony Kynas­ton: And

Cameron: and and the pres­i­dent does­n’t even know who the ambas­sador is Like the ambas­sadors

Tony Kynas­ton: over there

Cameron: Yeah This guy right next to me This this guy here Uh good good times good times Bank of Queens­land uh speak­ing of banks announced their Q4 2025 earn­ings report Share­hold­ers will receive a big­ger div­i­dend than last year So the a n Z’s pulling their divs the BOQ is increas­ing their [00:38:00] divs

Tony Kynas­ton: their divs

Cameron: What Oh sor­ry Share buy share Buy­back They’re pulling not the divs pulling the buy­back Bank of Queens­land’s increas­ing their divs What do you think about that They’ve announced an increase in its div­i­dend to 20 cents but con­cerns about the sus­tain­abil­i­ty of its div­i­dend pay­ments are raised due to inad­e­quate earn­ings cov­er­age The pay­ment will take the div­i­dend yield to 5.6 which is in line with the aver­age for the indus­try Any thoughts on that tk

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh look I had a look at their their results and um I mean like a lot of the region­al banks they’re strug­gling I spoke about this when I did the pulled pork on them They’ve got a high­er cost of cap­i­tal than the major banks which makes it for them to main­tain mar­gins when they’re offer­ing mort­gages Um and they’ve been doing some work recent­ly to try and offload some parts of the busi­ness which um don’t have the high or the ROE tar­gets that they’re after which is kind of a clas­sic invest­ment banker approach to a port­fo­lio That’s [00:39:00] under­stand­able Um the bank­ing ana­lysts kind of scratched their heads and said um That may not work it may not end well but um they’re they’re ramp­ing it up and doing some more So look bank of Queens­land I mean Jen­ny’s not Jen­ny was on the board there so um I knew a lit­tle bit about it uh a year or two ago and she she’s been off the board now for a while so I don’t know as much about it as I did then or pay as clos­er atten­tion to it as I did then Jen­ny still owns some shares in the bank I’ll declare that yeah I mean it’s it’s it’s

Cameron: Well she should have sold em cause they’re a three point trend line sell and they have been for a cou­ple of months

Tony Kynas­ton: told her that but she can’t she’s locked in for enough for a time

Cameron: Uh okay

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah Prob­a­bly said more

Cameron: Sor­ry

Tony Kynas­ton: to But any­way Yeah I’ve been telling her to sell him but she um she has­n’t

Cameron: I thought you were I thought you were gonna say she goes yeah I don’t believe QAV works

Tony Kynas­ton: No no She [00:40:00] does Um

Cameron: okay

Tony Kynas­ton: no So um look they they it’s improv­ing Um but it’s in a tough tough sec­tor of the indus­try And uh they’re doing you know they hit head­lines last year when they were start­ing to buy back some of the fran­chisees who run Bank of Queens­land bank branch­es um which was the right thing for the bank to do Um maybe not for the fran­chisees And there’s I think there’s still ongo­ing action around that but it was the right thing to do So yeah it’s it’s tough And they’re tak­ing action Um I haven’t looked at their div­i­dend cov­er­age Uh if if that’s an issue then a bit of a gam­ble on them mak­ing enough mon­ey in the future to cov­er the div­i­dend with­out bor­row­ing But when they start to bor­row if any­one starts to bor­row the cov­er div­i­dend it’s a bad sign Um so yeah I’m I’m not that famil­iar with Bank of Queens­land oth­er than what I’ve just said

Cameron: Well I sold em any­way in Sep­tem­ber so irrel­e­vant to me but just in case any­one else did­n’t sell them

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm

Cameron: When it was a three point sell [00:41:00] you’re get­ting a big­ger div­i­dend Good for you Uh got any­thing else before you do your pork

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah I do Um I had some late news com­ing in about uh super retail group anoth­er share in my port­fo­lio Uh the stock was up 2 this morn­ing but um I think it’s gone back a lit­tle bit since then But uh SUL Super Retail group have announced the appoint­ment of an inter­nal can­di­date Paul Brad­shaw is the group man­ag­ing direc­tor and CEO that he was the per­son who led uh BCF which is the Boat­ing camp­ing fish­ing sec­tion of super retail groups since 2019 And BCF has broad­ly out­per­formed super retail’s oth­er divi­sions over the past five years Bcfs cur­rent gen­er­al man­ag­er of retail oper­a­tions will become the man­ag­ing direc­tor of BCF So that was the announce­ment this morn­ing Uh but good to hear that they’ve recruit­ed from inside and hope­ful­ly they can put the behind them all the they’ve been hav­ing [00:42:00] with the CEO leav­ing and some key staff whis­tle blow­ing et cetera et cetera Their A GMI think is is com­ing up or is is this week So that’ll be inter­est­ing to see what hap­pens there There was a there it was an expect­ed protest vote against the chair Um but we’ll see what hap­pens

Cameron: I just check­ing They’ve been the bread Lat­er Sur­pris­ing­ly they’re not a cell too they’re well above their cell line

Tony Kynas­ton: Anoth­er exam­ple of some­thing you hold that came went up and came down and now it’s going back up again

Cameron: Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: It I think it it I think it touched its cell line for a day and I did­n’t notice and then back up again So I I kept it but it could have been a cell along the way as well

Cameron: Yeah it’s sort of peaked the end of Sep­tem­ber 2024 at 18 bucks Then it was down to just below 13 by March of 25 So dropped we’ll say like almost 30 in six months and then it [00:43:00] rebound­ed back to 19 bucks It’s cur­rent­ly at about uh 17 It’s come back a lit­tle bit but um yeah There you go Nice

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay Paul Cork time

Cameron: Well before you do that

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah

Cameron: do Paul wan­na do Paul’s ques­tion first

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah sure What’s Paul’s ques­tion

Cameron: Um bul­lion Every day for the past month a queue of peo­ple has become form­ing out the Aus­tralian Bul­lion Com­pa­ny in Mar­tin Place The queue starts build­ing around 9:30 AM and does­n’t real­ly dis­si­pate until ear­ly after­noon Today I esti­mate the queue at 11:00 AM to be around 1500 peo­ple

Tony Kynas­ton: Wow

Cameron: around the cor­ner and down Mar­tin Place Accord­ing to the AFR they’re all look­ing to buy gold and sil­ver bul­lion But why Because the price has dou­bled or a fear of social col­lapse Has Tony seen behav­ior like this before Is it evi­dence of a mar­ket top of a tulip pan­ic or some­thing else Entire­ly Your thoughts are wel­come I’m just glad I bought vault [00:44:00] when it appeared on the buy list

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah I mean gold­mines have been doing great Um you know they’re going up sub­stan­tial­ly and they may well become the next exam­ple of some­thing which drops from its high point Uh could be sign of a top I don’t know I mean the the line out­side of the bul­lion com­pa­ny is just clas­sic retail the­ater isn’t it You you have some­thing you um a vel­vet rope in front of it and cre­ate a line and peo­ple focus their atten­tion on it as Paul has done um oth­er it’s great mar­ket­ing for them Great

Cameron: You uh you you bring in bus­es of peo­ple from Bendi­go uh from the coun­try­side from Bendi­go to come and stand out in line pay them

Tony Kynas­ton: pos­si­bly

Cameron: pay them 10 bucks an hour to stand in line

Tony Kynas­ton: or you go to a jew­el­ry store and buy some gold and then walk up and down the line sell­ing it to them in a markup

Cameron: I remem­ber that’s when Bowie uh first tried to break into the US in the ear­ly sev­en­ties and could­n’t get arrest­ed That’s what [00:45:00] his man­ag­er Tony Defree I think it was Then did was just yeah hire peo­ple to come and stand in line at the front of the con­cert venue and yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: make him look famous

Tony Kynas­ton: it’s great pub­lic­i­ty Um not great ser­vice though I mean if co a cou­ple doors up I mean I’ve seen this line before when I lived in Syd­ney when I was um trav­el­ing in the Mar­tin place or what­ev­er it’s a cou­ple doors Up from the Com­mon­wealth Bank and down from from a NZ or vice ver­sa Um you know if if Com­mon­wealth Bank had one teller on and the QE out the door there’d be there’d be a huge out­cry So I won­der how many tellers are on at the the bul­lion Uh

Cameron: but it’s gold Tony

Tony Kynas­ton: gold

Cameron: gold

Tony Kynas­ton: Um I I guess a cou­ple of com­ments I I don’t know whether it’s indica­tive of a um it’s cer­tain­ly indica­tive of the gold price ris­ing I dun­no if that means it’s at the top Um it’s it’s almost like the same fren­zy the Bit­coin has Um peo­ple are buy­ing it

Cameron: Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: it’s [00:46:00] going up

Cameron: Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: guess there are oth­er rea­sons Um Like they I like the fir first ques­tion is why would­n’t they buy a gold ETF and just stay at home or a blue chip min­er Um so is there some kind of sur­vival­ist men­tal­i­ty going on here Are they do they wor­ry The sys­tem may break and they their ETFs are gonna drop or the gold­mines are gonna drop and they but you know they if they buy gold they’ve still got it Per­haps that’s that’s fair But they don’t have it is my under­stand­ing Some peo­ple do buy it and walk out the door with a small ot but um you know my under­stand­ing is they’re buy­ing it and stor­ing it in the vault there or they’re buy­ing it and tak­ing it to anoth­er bank and stor­ing it there So they’ve got hold­ing costs Sor­ry you’re gonna say some­thing

Cameron: I was just gonna say I I you know I remem­ber um very clear­ly in Mad Max two when Max was­n’t uh get­ting the old tanker he was run­ning a you know post-apoc­a­lyp­tic fine jew­el­ry store in the [00:47:00] Waste­lands Uh that’s cause peo­ple always tell me when soci­ety col­laps­es that’s it’s all gonna be about gold man Yeah Remem­ber that very clear­ly

Tony Kynas­ton: more about water and food but yeah

Cameron: No no It’s old fine jury

Tony Kynas­ton: gold’s aur is just the door stop real­ly isn’t it In itself If there is Armaged­don hav­ing gold’s not gonna help you say and also too my my com­ment to the peo­ple in the line they should real­ize the line’s gonna be a lot worse when it comes time to sell Right If it’s if it’s a line of 1500 peo­ple try­ing to get him to buy the thing when it drops 20 or 30 it’s gonna be a line of 10,000 peo­ple try­ing to sell on the same day They’ll be fisticuffs and Mar­tin Place

Cameron: Well the thing I always come I I did make a Tik­Tok about this yes­ter­day um and I made anoth­er one today which I haven’t pub­lished yet But yeah the one of the points I was mak­ing is if the peo­ple sell­ing the gold real­ly believed what you believe they would­n’t be sell­ing it They’d be hoard­ing [00:48:00] it If gold is gonna be worth X more in the future or is the back­stop when soci­ety col­laps­es would­n’t the peo­ple that own the gold be hoard­ing it instead of sell­ing it for your Dirty Fiat gov­ern­ment cash mon­ey

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah quite pos­si­bly

Cameron: They obvi­ous­ly don’t believe that sto­ry

Tony Kynas­ton: No

Cameron: and they own all the gold

Tony Kynas­ton: Well I dun­no where the bul­lion buys it from but yeah I take your point Or the bul­lion com­pa­ny buys it from Yeah

Cameron: It’s like uh yeah greater fool the­o­ry in action

Tony Kynas­ton: it is isn’t it And the sad thing is like I think the arti­cle I read in the fin­ger review about it and there’s been a num­ber of arti­cles about the this issue and gold bul­ly­ing com­pa­ny and peo­ple buy­ing retail gold is you see pho­tographs of mum there with a kid Buy­ing gold and giv­ing it to the kid and to teach em about invest­ing and like that’s fine but I I’m real­ly hop­ing when the price drops and it will at [00:49:00] some stage mom does­n’t sell the gold and teach the kid how to buy high and sell low

Cameron: Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: edu­ca­tion

Cameron: and we’ve talked about this before over the years but stocks mas­sive­ly out­per­formed gold over the long term And uh gold has remained stag­nant for decades at a time I think through the eight­ies and nineties into the two thou­sands gold was pret­ty stag­nant And again uh a few years ago it was stag­nant for quite a few years So it goes through

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm

Cameron: when peo­ple are pan­ick­ing and they think gold But again it’s it’s a manip­u­lat­ed mar­ket the peo­ple that are hyp­ing it and sell­ing it you know as as I said at the end of the Tik­Tok video do you know what the invest­ing indus­try calls peo­ple who buy some­thing because the price is going up Fresh meat

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: That’s what it is Right It’s you know it’s like come in spin­ner Real­ly

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah And if I had a gold mine and I could­n’t sell all my gold I’d be going let’s open in a retail front and Mar­tin Place[00:50:00]

Cameron: Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: price is going up We’ll upload the the full the full min­ing quo­ta

Cameron: Yeah and look I I can look at the gold price over the last 10 years and go well it would’ve been good to own that Or I can look at Bit­coin over the last five years and think it would’ve been good to own that But the point is always this is again what I’m try­ing to get across in the Tik­Tok videos at any giv­en point in time with Gold or Bit­coin or Beanie Babies because it has no gen­uine under­ly­ing val­ue you don’t know whether it’s cur­rent­ly over­val­ued or under­val­ued

Tony Kynas­ton: that’s right

Cameron: cause it has no under­ly­ing val­ue So your deci­sion to buy it at at any giv­en point in time is based on Hope that it’s gonna keep going up There’s real­ly no gen­uine ratio­nal log­i­cal rea­son to buy it except that you think it’s gonna keep going up You believe it’s gonna keep going up It’s faith Right And you can be [00:51:00] lucky but we know that luck nev­er lasts for­ev­er He said before tree nev­er grows to the sky and nei­ther does luck it it always it’s not a long-term strat­e­gy Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: for a long time and then you fail

Cameron: yeah Right You have to I mean because there’s no sci­ence or log­ic ratio­nal think­ing behind it which is what you’ve done with QAV is giv­en us a ratio­nal basis for think­ing this stock is cur­rent­ly under­val­ued and there­fore you know odds are that it will go up over time It will regress to the mean revert to the not revert Regress real­ly revert to the mean Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: And so my ques­tion to the peo­ple stand­ing in line is okay you wan­na buy gold it’s going up What’s your sell strat­e­gy When do you sell Yeah And and look if the per­son said oh I buy it take it home If it goes up 10 I come back and sell it You know

Cameron: Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: that’s not gonna work because there are trans­ac­tion fees and hold­ing costs It’s

Cameron: Right

Tony Kynas­ton: I’d love to know what [00:52:00] they are But the bull com­pa­ny are doing it out­ta the good­ness of their heart They’re tak­ing a

Cameron: Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: and then they’re

Cameron: hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: for you Again not out­ta the good­ness of their heart It’s not inplace rentals here It’s gonna be expen­sive Plus if they’re stor­ing it for you it’s gonna be in a big vault which costs them mon­ey So

Cameron: Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: you know part of and then the arti­cle was talk­ing about they’re now sort of doing things like um sell­ing Uh ingots with holes in them so he can wear this jew­el­ry and they’re at a big markup to the gold price So it’s like um you know they’re mak­ing mon­ey wher­ev­er they can and mar­gin wher­ev­er they can Good luck to them

Cameron: Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: but um yeah I I wish these peo­ple going in there had a frame­work that they announced that they annun­ci­at­ed and under­stood

Cameron: Jim­my the hat wait­ing around the cor­ner for when you walk out with it hang­ing around your neck

Tony Kynas­ton: well Exact­ly Yeah I hope that’s not going on The oth­er thing I hope’s not going on and I I don’t wan­na cast dis­per­sions on the com­pa­ny is but I’m hop­ing those peo­ple aren’t laun­der­ing cash I don’t I’d love to know whether the a ML laws that apply to [00:53:00] banks and deposits of $10,000 or more apply to the bul­ly­ing com­pa­ny I I guess they do I hope they do What the report­ing is there whether peo­ple are com­ing in with you know what per­cent­age of the trans­ac­tions are in cash cause it seems to me a very easy way to lord the mon­ey if I was so inclined

Cameron: I got­ta go I’ve got a busi­ness idea I’ll be back

Jim­my Hats I

Tony Kynas­ton: is a yeah that is a busi­ness idea isn’t it Just uh blocks of wood beanie babies to all the

Cameron: Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: You wan­na laun­der your mon­ey Give it to me cause I

Cameron: Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: go up in val­ue and you know I’ll buy it off you You can buy it I’ll buy it back

Cameron: Hmm hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: Then we clear off with the cash

Cameron: All right Paul Pork time

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah So dusk I know I’ve spo­ken about dusk before cause I know it float­ed dur­ing the time we’ve been doing the shows I dun­no if I did a pulled pork or not cause I think it was at the list­ing But any­way it’s um it’s back on the buy list today It’s been going down for the last [00:54:00] four four odd years since it list­ed years maybe So yeah I think it’s worth revis­it­ing They they have new man­age­ment They uh in the mid­dle of a turn­around and the lat­est results were good So it’s come back on the buy list and it’s just crossed over Its its by price So it’s only 1 cent above Its by price Today when I’m doing the analy­sis on the 21st of Octo­ber it’s about 10 above its sell price So you know don’t be you’re think­ing about look­ing into this com­pa­ny just check the bread lay­er and see if it’s still above Its its by price Not a big com­pa­ny It it’s it’s come down a lot in size and the ADTs only 60 odd thou­sand dol­lars which is small­ish but um will be of inter­est to some peo­ple who lis­ten to this Uh I list­ed on the ASX in 2020 at $2 Um it’s now trad­ing at 90 odd cents 90.50 cents So um it’s it’s less than half than what it list­ed at and it climbed as high as $3 [00:55:00] 85 with­in about 12 months and then start­ed drop­ping So um cou­ple of things to com­ment about that it was list­ed dur­ing or around the time of COVID Um it was doing tremen­dous­ly well out of online sales because of COVID Um when COVID fin­ished uh things kind of regressed to the mean a lit­tle bit there it was also um I guess proof of the old adage not to buy from pri­vate equi­ty And uh the com­pa­ny was owned by Cat­a­lyst Part­ners they held 25 of dusk at list­ing but they sold down over the fol­low­ing 12 months And I think they they got out over the cou­ple first cou­ple of years Uh we’ve seen that mod­el before when com­pa­nies had tak­en pri­vate or this this one always was pri­vate was bought by um Pri­vate equi­ty and then at the right time was float­ed in the share mar­ket They got out stock has dropped half what it list­ed at So and and you know a quar­ter of of the high [00:56:00] the stock high price So not say­ing Cat­a­lyst did any­thing wrong Um cer­tain­ly not say­ing that they were smart and timed their exit well uh but it it has proved a bit of a an adage over the years not to buy from pe So any­way I just make that point in If some­one had bought dusk before and um a nurs­ing or loss just be care­ful next time Who are they So peo­ple in Aus­tralia this will will prob­a­bly know about them They’re a retail store They offer um I’ll call em items to female cus­tomers That’s that’s my sort of short take on them Um I’m doing em a dis­ser­vice because they sell home fra­grance prod­ucts accord­ing to their web­site they offer a range of Brand­ed pre­mi­um qual­i­ty prod­ucts at com­pet­i­tive prices from stores and online stores Prod­uct ranges designed in-house and exclu­sive to dusk has grown to become the lead­ing Aus­tralian omni-chan­nel spe­cial­ty retail­er focused on [00:57:00] home fra­grance prod­ucts The prod­uct offer­ings include can­dles dif­fusers essen­tial oils and fra­grance relat­ed home­wares So kind of sum sum­ma­rizes it Peo­ple will have walked past the store smelt the aro­mas and get a fair idea of what they’re sell­ing inside And look it’s a clas­sic um You know it’s the same sort of mod­el as Office Works or Bun­nings or what­ev­er They’re a cat­e­go­ry killer that par­tic­u­lar niche part of the the retail mar­ket So good luck to them Uh the his­to­ry So before becom­ing um the lead­ing can­dle retail­er in Aus­tralia this is accord­ing to an arti­cle in Pow­er Retail was a sin­gle store in Perth opened in 2000 by a chap called David Strat­ton in just over 20 years the retail­er had opened a fur­ther 114 stores It’s opened more than that now It’s about 150 and it has launched a suc­cess­ful online plat­form And in 2020 the retail­er float­ed [00:58:00] um A just wan­na flesh down a bit more It’s an inter­est­ing sort of his­to­ry So they did start in Perth around 2000 attract­ed the atten­tion of a chap called Brett Blondie And any­body who fol­lows Aus­tralian retail would know about Brett Blondie He’s one of the most suc­cess­ful retail­ers in Aus­tralia he took own­er or an own­er­ship stake in the store In 2006 Part­ners brought in and they bought half the busi­ness in 2010 and then they also um bought Adairs anoth­er com­pa­ny which has been uh on our buy list in the past So they have Adairs and Dusk and the founder left the com­pa­ny at that stage So um dusk was in the hands of uh pri­vate equi­ty and Blondie and that’s when things start­ed to change So by 2015 had sold its fac­to­ries and was import­ing can­dles from Asia and fra­grances from Europe Um logis­tics were bro­ken up and out­sourced and the store roll­out began All this hap­pened under the watch of the [00:59:00] cur­rent chief exec­u­tive Peter King So cur­rent at the time of Float I’ll say who joined Dusk in 2014 This is an arti­cle uh from Intel­li­gent Investor that I’m I’m sort of cher­ryp­ick­ing from and it was done when Dusk float­ed but it’s a good uh insight into their his­to­ry Uh Uh so they they start­ed stopped man­u­fac­tur­ing can­dles start­ed import­ing them Uh the the arti­cle reads these changes may have upset can­dle purists but they result­ed in sen­sa­tion­al returns until 2020 thus was gen­er­at­ing gross mar­gins of about 65 And had EBIT mar­gins over 10 reduced its cost of doing busi­ness from about 60 of rev­enue down to under 50 The SNORE Net­work grew to 118 when they list­ed with plans to grow to 160 It’s now about 150 and um aver­age rev­enue per store was around $800,000 per year which is pret­ty good et cetera et cetera [01:00:00] Um one of the things that Brett b Blundy brought to bear was his retail na So uh this arti­cle says dust tends to tar­get store space and b and c grade malls where it can nego­ti­ate low­er leas­es It typ­i­cal­ly signs leas­es of three to five years and uses renewals to cap­ture refur­bish­ment in cen­ters from more own­ers lease strat­e­gy helps explain how lease costs have fall­en con­sis­tent­ly Um that helps with cost but the real mon­ey is made by com­bin­ing high inven­to­ry turnover with high mar­gins in plain Eng­lish Dusk is good at sell­ing things quick­ly for a lot more than that cost to make them and that’s not easy to do Most retail involves a trade off between mar­gins and how quick­ly prod­uct is sold Super­mar­kets for exam­ple sell lots of prod­ucts at low mar­gins A jew­el does the oppo­site Thus now appears to be um anoth­er exam­ple of some­one who can do both Uh anoth­er stand­out fea­ture is low cost cus­tomer acqui­si­tion DK oper­ates one of the most suc­cess­ful loy­al­ty pro­grams in retail with a [01:01:00] paid rewards pro­gram that cur­rent­ly has over 600,000 mem­bers Those mem­bers rep­re­sent a cus­tomer base that can be tracked mar­ket­ed to and drawn in store et cetera et cetera So that was an arti­cle by a chap called Gar Sodi which is a good analy­sis of dusk Um one more arti­cle I just wan­na run through before get­ting to the num­bers Uh oh sor­ry The results First and num­bers This comes from Mar­ket Index recent­ly after the results came out and uh this was writ­ten oh I don’t have the I don’t have oh Ker­ry Sub That Mar­ket Index wrote this Here’s what makes dusk inter­est­ing Strip away the dis­ap­point­ing oper­a­tional per­for­mance Um and he was talk­ing about in the past and you’ll find an unusu­al val­u­a­tion sto­ry Dust trades at a 55 mil­lion mar­ket cap but holds 20.2 mil­lion in net cash and 17.3 mil­lion of inven­to­ry This means investors are effec­tive­ly pay­ing just 17.5 mil­lion for the under­ly­ing busi­ness or rough­ly four times the [01:02:00] 4.5 mil­lion net prof­it for FY 25 That’s an extra­or­di­nary loan mul­ti­ple that cre­ates sig­nif­i­cant lever­age to any earn­ings recov­ery And he goes on in the arti­cle to say that he thinks the busi­ness is posi­tioned like the reject shop was before it was tak­en over by Dol­lara­ma So inter­est­ing uh anal­o­gy inter­est­ing com­par­i­son there made um uh by uh Ker­ry’s son Uh to go through the results Um this is the most recent FY 25 num­bers Sales were up 8.7 like for like sales were up 7.1 and that’s impor­tant for a retail­er It means that sales are not just dri­ven by store growth but it also means that if they do grow stores they can be open con­fi­dent­ly because um they the the oper­at­ing mod­el works and they’re grow­ing above uh GDP above CPI um which is good It’s repeat busi­ness is is there it means the mar­gins are strong so that’s great Online online sales are up [01:03:00] 50 but online sales were still only 7.8 of total Um so gen­er­al­ly I would think there’s room to dou­ble this Most retail­ers are get­ting around 14 15 sales Nor­mal­ly if they’re in this kind of sort of omni-chan­nel sit­u­a­tion with a big store net­work So um room to improve online but the sales are up pro crop gross prof­it was up 7.5 and EBIT was up 23 and most of that dam was down to our renew­al strat­e­gy So man­age­ment changed a cou­ple of years ago New CEO he’s now spent time replac­ing key posi­tions and he calls the renew­al Um a four part plan Tal­ent renew­al prod­uct reju­ve­na­tion cus­tomer base expan­sion and bet­ter bet­ter omnichan­nel expe­ri­ence What does that all mean Um he’s plac­ing empha­sis on sales skills in store train­ing for in-store staff um rather than the focus that was on oper­a­tional train­ing [01:04:00] Uh there’s a been a turnover in key roles As I said new store for­mats are being tri­aled Well uh there are mer­chan­dis­ing tie-ins for exam­ple with the Bee­tle juice um movie and play that was on in Aus­tralia in the last 12 months Um the dig­i­tal dig­i­tal expe­ri­ence and mar­ket­ing is being focused on and improved Uh they’ve start­ed doing click and col­lect and those sales are grow­ing they’re imple­ment­ing a Sales­force CRM pack­age next year which they’re hop­ing to um improve their mar­ket­ing with And their cur­rent mem­ber pro­gram which remem­ber you have to pay to be a part of is now 50 It’s 57 um pen­e­tra­tion to sales So that’s going well and giv­ing them a good base for CRM Um there was arti­cle in Stock Head one I’m gonna read uh about the renew­al And it was an inter­view with the CEOA chap called Jacob­son And he says that thus research shows that half of its shop is already a male So while the look and feel of the stores has been [01:05:00] female ori­ent­ed blokes felt com­fort­able vis­it­ing them The trou­ble is they can find their vis­its to gift shop­ping around Moth­er’s Day Valen­tine’s Day and Christ­mas in a Bloke Things Up Ini­tia­tive Dust launched a Father’s Day range of can­dle and room sprays Fred Lin­da a Bush walk­ing or sit­ting on the beach It was so suc­cess­ful we sold out in two weeks Jacob­son says has also entered uh three prod­uct col­lab­o­ra­tions These have been with Con­fec­tionary Mak­er All Ords Think of Killer Python Scent the Willy Won­ka fran­chise choco­late Cent Can­dles and even HBO’s White Lotus Series the flo­ral and spicy incense of an Upmar­ket Tire Resort And that comes from Stock Head on the 10th of Octo­ber So Cam have you ever dreamt of bush walk­ing or sit­ting on the beach and live a can­dle Uh

Cameron: Fun­ny I was talk­ing to Hunter about this the oth­er day He was he’s um it’s my son Hunter for lis­ten­ers [01:06:00] He’s uh con­nect­ed with some influ­encer in the US who has launched a range of her own can­dles

Tony Kynas­ton: mm-hmm

Cameron: And she’s sell­ing them for like 150 bucks a can­dle And she’s shoot­ing real­ly styl­ized sort of lit­tle Tik­Tok videos that then lead into a thing And appar­ent­ly she’s doing gang­busters and sales And I was like it’s can­dles are inter­est­ing cause there’s one of those things that it’s an easy gift for peo­ple right

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep

Cameron: You can give some­body a scent­ed can­dle It’s kind of a it’s a lazy no loss gift Every­one likes a scent­ed can­dle unless it’s a ter­ri­ble smell right I guess But it’s one of those things Chris­sy stu­dents give a can­dles all the time Peo­ple have giv­en me can­dles before you know it’s like a I think it’s a real­ly inter­est­ing prod­uct cat­e­go­ry I’m not sure I’d pay 150 bucks for a can­dle but if I had end­less amounts of mon­ey like you I prob­a­bly would You know And she has like real­ly weird [01:07:00] wacky fan­cy fla­vors and that kin­da stuff But yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: I bet Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: it’s

Cameron: I don’t mind a smelly can­dle

Tony Kynas­ton: okay I I I been giv­en them nev­er lit them Um Alex has big time into them Um prob­a­bly knows dust

Cameron: You said that the last time we talked about dusk

Tony Kynas­ton: okay

Cameron: up my notes You said she was obsessed with them when she lived with you Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah So um look it’s it’s not a prod­uct I’m famil­iar with I’ve been into their stores cause I’m you know like look­ing at retail for­mats when they’re new when Or me yeah it’s it’s inter­est­ing though that this I guess the point is it’s a turn­around sto­ry and they’re try­ing things and then they you know it’s it’s try learn either get rid of or roll out So it’s a good it’s a good retail approach But all that aside whether I liked them or not from a cus­tomer point of view the num­bers are com­pelling So uh to go through the QAV b num­bers on as I said before 90 and a half cents was the share price when I did this analy­sis [01:08:00] which is 70 of con­sen­sus tar­get it’s above our iv one of 20 cents but below IV two of a dol­lar 20 IV two is prob­a­bly clos­er to what the mar­ket thinks of um of the pos­si­bil­i­ties for the share price rise Stock Doc­tor finan­cial health and trend is strong and steady Stock­er PD qual­i­ty rank is 93 which is pret­ty good Over­all Rank drops to 85 because they mark down on momen­tum and that makes sense If you look at the share price graph over the last sort of three or four years since the high it’s dropped uh dropped a lot so that makes sense But the F score on Stock­er PD is 68 of nine which is good That’s the PIOTROVSKY score Uh the yield is 7.7 so it’s above the mort­gage rate We score it for that Talk­ing of retail­ers with high yield is uh is high It’s 23.5 times but just below the high­est so it’s not the high­est or the low­est so it does­n’t score either way For that Pr/OpCaf is only two times [01:09:00] 2.03 times so this is a store net­work of 150 out­lets plus an online busi­ness and we can buy it for two times cash which is just crazy that equi­ty per share is um 51 cents so we can’t buy the book val­ue Uh Doc­tor has an earn­ings per share growth fore­cast of over 200 So um they’re buy­ing into the turn­around sto­ry I guess but that’s good I guess they’re tak­ing the num­bers from bro­kers who cov­er the the stock that means growth over P is nine ver­sus our thresh­old of 1.5 so it scores a two on the check­list for that But you know just we’ve seen this before cam but Com­pa­ny which is is fore­cast to grow at um 200 So more than dou­ble its its earn­ings per share Next year we can buy it at two times cash flow It’s incred­i­ble

Cameron: Wow

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh no no Own­er founder and I spoke before about the his­to­ry of it Brett Blande and Cat­a­lyst sold out after the float Um oh I dun­no when [01:10:00] Brett sold out But Cat­a­lyst sold out after the float how­ev­er the board does hold 6 of shares so it’s it’s a healthy hold­ing but um uh at our thresh­old not the founder but chap called John Joyce is the chair­man He holds 3.75 and he has over 30 years expe­ri­ence in senior roles in retail and super­mar­kets He was the CEO of Rebel of the Rebel group So we spoke about Rebel um rebel before which is now part of the super retail group and he was man­ag­ing direc­tor at Aldi so um pret­ty senior retail jobs He would know his stuff David McClean anoth­er direc­tor holds for fur­ther 2 and he was the chief Exec­u­tive offi­cer man­ag­ing direc­tor of a de of Adairs for 14 years And Adairs Um bun­dled up with this com­pa­ny when they were sold the cat­a­lyst so he’s now on the board too So some pret­ty seri­ous um retail expe­ri­ence on the board which is good Uh it’s a new three point trend lined upturn [01:11:00] It does­n’t have con­sis­tent­ly increas­ing equi­ty so over­all it’s 12 out­ta 16 or 75 for qual­i­ty and 0.37 for QAV score So it’s um it’s quite high on L list and risks Um I’ll take the com­ment from the arti­cle I read about uh com­par­isons to uh the reject shop and say this is a poten­tial takeover tar­get Makes sense to me Um but if it does­n’t get tak­en over it’s still fore­cast­ed to dou­ble earn­ings inter­est rate cuts will help this com­pa­ny Um as it does all dis­cre­tionary retail­ers The turnover strat­e­gy seems to be work­ing so it’s only just start­ing so that’s good Uh there’s room to grow with that it has a moun­tain of cash and inven­to­ry As the arti­cle said It’s got a 7.7 yield so you can buy it um and get paid you know with a div­i­dend alone on the risk side it kind of flips around all those things I just said So there’s nor­mal eco­nom­ic risks Um dis­cre­tionary [01:12:00] retail­ers are hit hard­est when uh things get tight if their inter­est cap rate ris­es um which don’t appear to be in uh in the cards but they could hap­pen at some stage they’ll flow through and hurt Sales is peo­ple tight­en their pock­ets and buy cheap­er can­dles or buy less can­dles and I guess the oth­er risk is any sort of mis­step with the prod­uct refresh So for exam­ple men real­ly don’t care about smelling like a for­est Um then uh that will be an issue for them but they seem to have enough retail expe­ri­ence to nav­i­gate through that So I was um I like you know my back­ground’s in retail I like what I saw it’s only just above Its by price so it may drop again but yeah have a look at it It’s on the bot­tle is new this week

Cameron: Mas­sage bars That’s what I go into dusk for They last they last for­ev­er But Chrisy and I usu­al­ly have a dusk mas­sage bars It’s like a hard mas­sage thing Leaves an oily thing give each oth­er mas­sages you know Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: is that part of the Fight Club We [01:13:00] should­n’t talk about Fight Club

Cameron: I’m say­ing

Tony Kynas­ton: You went to a

Cameron: I’m a man I go actu­al­ly Chris­sy and I did go

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh

Cameron: we did go um to a uh place Thank you for that by the way Dusk This is after hours for my birth­day She I well for her birth­day in Feb­ru­ary I gave her a vouch­er for a spa day at a place in West End called Soak Bath­house saunas and spas and mas­sages and it’s very white lotus We were sit­ting there going I feel like I’m in White Lotus right now except we were look­ing over a con­struc­tion site in the mid­dle of Bris­bane

Tony Kynas­ton: present as well as Chris­sy

Cameron: Well she had­n’t used hers and she got me the same pack­age for my birth­day So we went and had a cou­ple’s day last week

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay

Cameron: Fox was on his school camp and it was nice But yeah Um mas­sages Yes Uh get­ting back to that So dusk I think of mas­sage bars Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay[01:14:00]

Cameron: After hours Tony

Tony Kynas­ton: Yes

Cameron: you wan­na talk about school Za

Tony Kynas­ton: I do I I loved it Um you on you on Apple Plus there’s a doc­u­men­tary series and I’ve for­got­ten what it’s called But any­way it’s prob­a­bly just called Scors­ese It’s fan­tas­tic It’s it’s his life I’ve only watched the first two episodes which are quite long but it’s um real­ly high qual­i­ty doc­u­men­tary Plen­ty of inter­views not just with you know film stars Have been direct­ed by Scors­ese and Spiel­berg et cetera um peo­ple he grew up with which is real­ly inter­est­ing He’s kind of been put into a din­er in New York with his bud­dies from the gang when he was a kid and they’re going over old sit­u­a­tions which is great But the sec­ond episode is about the mak­ing of mean Streets and Taxi dri­ver And does­n’t live here any­more and it is fan­tas­tic And you there were things in there which I did­n’t know and I I’ve watched Taxi Dri­ver a mil­lion times and loved De Niro and Scors­ese But um [01:15:00] I did­n’t real­ize that they grew up two streets apart from each oth­er in New York And uh like so De Niro’s being inter­viewed and Scors­ese’s being inter­viewed and they said yeah we got togeth­er the cause you know we had a mutu­al friend and I was cast­ing for mean streets and they said oh you got­ta see this guy from New York He’s per­fect for the role of John­ny and in Mean streets And they turned up and De Niro goes I know you And Scors­ese goes I know you And then they were two streets apart They knew each oth­er as kids De Niro was called John­ny the Hat by Scors­ese’s Gang cause he used to get around in the hat And when you see mean streets John­ny wears hats all the time and mean streets and it’s great And I inter­view one of Deni uh Scors­ese’s child­hood friends who was the role mod­el for that char­ac­ter And he’s kind of reluc­tant to come on and be inter­viewed and uh but he’s you know super cool dun­no how old he’s in his eight­ies or what­ev­er And yeah it’s just real­ly great to hear all these sto­ries I was telling you off air about how um de Niro made a movie for [01:16:00] Roger Cor­man box­car Bertha with David Car­ra­dine And it was a pret­ty straight­for­ward rip off of Bon­nie and Clyde he was out in in Hol­ly­wood in Cal­i­for­nia try­ing to break into a film over there And he was get­ting friends with you know um and but also uh Mil­ius and uh Cop­pler and all that that kind of crowd And he made this Cole­man flick and they all said No we don’t wan­na know you now you’re not gonna make mon­ey for make movies for mon­ey know you

Cameron: They all got start­ed with Cor­man

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah Well

Cameron: Lucas and Cop­po­la they they all worked for Cor­man Mm-hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah pos­si­bly Um so course Scors­ese goes by kick us back to New York He’s cast­ing around what am I gonna do I still wan­na make movies Cave Who um that famous Cin­e­ma Verite Direc­tor was still a friend and he walked over Hug Score Stacey I love [01:17:00] you but she got­ta make a movie from your heart not for cash Scors­ese says I’ve got this script about me grow­ing up mean streets about peo­ple in my gang and my neigh­bor­hood and stuff Cave loves it You got a cast­er puts peo­ple togeth­er they get the neu­ro in Tel who’d been in Scors­ese’s stu­dent cause like the in the first episode it goes through Scors­ese like this uh sick­ly kid like all the oth­er kids he’s grow­ing up with they’re all going into Cora and you know they’re all becom­ing some kind of small busi­ness­man or what­ev­er He’s real­ly sick­ly can’t can’t real­ly live in that world And he goes through he says like you know I almost died of asth­ma as a kid And I used to we used to live in a ten­e­ment three sto­ries up and I used to see the world Below us Every­one was play­ing from up above And he went through and then showed all basi­cal­ly every one of his movies has a high shot look­ing down that pans across from left to right which is him look­ing out of his [01:18:00] win­dow down at it it goes through all this kind of stuff It’s fan­tas­tic So he goes to NYU it’s like it’s up the block from where he was grow­ing up Um falls in at the time of the Viet­nam War protest Uh falls into the film school there gets mes­mer­ized by a pro­fes­sor gets his friends go to shoot the Wood­stock movie up in upstate New York And um but he’s nev­er cred­it­ed on the on the film and it wins a wins an Oscar for best direc­tor or best doc­u­men­tary And uh he’s real­ly upset because they all go to Cal­i­for­nia and get jobs in Hol­ly­wood and he’s left behind So it’s it’s always about him being to get to be a part of a group and being ostra­cized And and one of the peo­ple that’s inter­view they inter­view says you know you got­ta under­stand all of Scors­ese’s movies about out­siders who make it good That’s Scors­ese retelling his sto­ry over and over and over again So about uh you know the Wolf of Wall Street to make it big in Wall Street get­ting kicked out mak­ing lots of mon­ey It’s [01:19:00] all these sto­ries are about Scors­ese Uh it’s just it’s a real­ly good doc­u­men­tary So he makes Mean Streets takes it to Cannes He’s he’s had to bat­tle all the way with the stu­dio cause it’s it’s it’s vio­lent They don’t wan­na release it They threat­en to hold the print He threat­ens to break in and steal it The sen­sors threat­en it with the next rat­ing He comes up with the idea even­tu­al­ly to desat­u­rate all the blood col­or in it back to Brown and make the final scene grainy where he shoots up the pimp Um and so that gives them the next rat­ing below X So it’s RI think rather than X but it it gets a wider release They get they take it to Kahan at by this stage the NI and and Scors­ese It just Shell­shocked like you know what have we done No one wants to see this No one wants to release it we had to fight real­ly hard to to get it to be released out­side of porno you know the­aters dri­ve-ins Um stay in their rooms and can they don’t go to any of the press Jody Fos­ter who’s like 14 or [01:20:00] 15 does all the all the press Yeah

Cameron: was

Tony Kynas­ton: the press for it in Cannes They bug out fly back to New York before the offi­cial show­ing get back to New York get a phone call Hey you won the Palm Door

Cameron: fly back

Tony Kynas­ton: No it did­n’t it already hap­pened And then um I I think I think it was you know some one of his bud­dies says Hey you got­ta go and see the taxi dri­ver opens in one cin­e­ma in New York He says Hey go and see it There’s a line around the block they’re not buy­ing gold bul­lion They’re going to see Taxi dri­ver and it becomes a big hit It’s great Full of

Cameron: Great film

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm

Cameron: Well the I looked it up It’s called Mr Scors­ese the doc­u­men­tary series and it’s direct­ed by Rebec­ca Miller AKA Lady Day Lewis cause she’s mar­ried to Daniel Day Lewis and she’s the daugh­ter of Arthur Miller

Tony Kynas­ton: Wow

Cameron: was born in 1962 not to Mar­i­lyn Mon­roe but uh his third wife Inga Morath [01:21:00] an Aus­tri­an uh pho­tog­ra­ph­er Imag­ine imag­ine being Arthur Miller’s wife after Mar­i­lyn Mon­roe I mean how do you this a how do you com­pete with that Real­ly very good Well I don’t have Apple tv but I guess I will see it at some point

Tony Kynas­ton: It’s worth watch­ing

Cameron: I’m halfway through watch­ing Ele­phant Man which I’ve nev­er seen before

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh you’ve nev­er seen it Real­ly

Cameron: Nev­er seen it because in my head it’s not real­ly a Lynch film

Tony Kynas­ton: very much Is Ridge­field

Cameron: Well yes it is As you watch it I mean it’s not as weird as a as a Lynch film I mean you go from a razor­head to that I mean it has noth­ing real­ly apart from black and white and some of the uh the the just the weird sort of sound­track There’s always like gas burn­ing and you know all that kind of real­ly off­set­ting Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: [01:22:00] But that’s what I

Cameron: But Tony Hop­kins is great isn’t it

Tony Kynas­ton: but it’s also it’s got a it’s a very styl­ized way of shoot­ing it It’s like lots of close­ups on peo­ple lots of zoom ins on peo­ple who who have almost stilt­ed deliv­ery emo­tion­al deliv­ery It’s it’s not nat­ur­al in the way it’s shot

Cameron: I did­n’t have that impres­sion but it’s beau­ti­ful­ly shot

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm

Cameron: I mean it’s I do think it’s more like straight sto­ry It’s more of a main­stream kind of lynch film But any­way real­ly enjoy­ing it and glad I final­ly sat down and watched it It just turned up on HBO Max or some­thing and I was like oh God I’ve nev­er seen this How can I have nev­er seen this I got­ta sit down and give it a watch I’ll tell you Tony Hop­kins is always just

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: I mean he’s just his abil­i­ty to deliv­er a line is mag­nif­i­cent and and Ban­croft is mar­velous in it I think it was I mean Mel Brooks made it I saw Lynch you know I’ve seen Lynch talk about how Mel Brooks gave him the oppor­tu­ni­ty to [01:23:00] make it many many times and he was mak­ing films of the vehi­cle for Anne Ban­croft and she’s mar­velous in it Always loved Anne Ban­croft but I can’t remem­ber the last thing I saw her in But she’s ter­rif­ic

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm

Cameron: as is John Hurt

Tony Kynas­ton: from mem­o­ry I think’s in it does a great role Was it Patrick Car­go one of the oth­er Eng­lish actors

Cameron: John Gil Good’s in it Um but

Tony Kynas­ton: the guy who

Cameron: um

Tony Kynas­ton: own­er of the Ele­phant man and dis­play­ing

Cameron: so that is um uh not Ter­ry Jones um some­thing Jones Um

Tony Kynas­ton: Any­way he’s good And of course

Cameron: he is fan­tas­tic

Tony Kynas­ton: I’ve always been a

Cameron: yeah yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: Real­ly Yeah Yeah He’s fan­tas­tic in it Um obvi­ous­ly dif­fi­cult per­for­mance to get across that kind of human­i­ty under all of that make­up Um the the Fred­dy Jones is the name of the actor who plays the orig­i­nal own­er who was then in Dune Lynch’s Dune[01:24:00]

Tony Kynas­ton: Yes

Cameron: among oth­er things Um but yes he’s a he’s a great old British actor

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: What else have I got

Tony Kynas­ton: good

Cameron: fin­ished a robot

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh yeah

Cameron: and loved it Loved it Slow start and I’m glad I per­sist­ed with it Oh is there

Tony Kynas­ton: the

Cameron: Okay

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: well I mean I’m not sure if what I read was it felt like an anthol­o­gy but it’s all the Susan Calvin sto­ry so I dun­no Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: more more Calvin sto­ries Yeah

Cameron: well I think that was prob­a­bly every­thing that I read cause she dies at the end of the last one that I read Um but it was uh great like the philo­soph­i­cal ques­tions that he posed about align­ment what we call align­ment these days between robots and humans is uh it was I mean so bril­liant He was so far ahead of his time think­ing about the issues that we’re now deal­ing with in real life in 20 25 75 years lat­er Amaz­ing [01:25:00] And then when I fin­ished that I start­ed read­ing Grav­i­ty’s Rain­bow Thomas Pinch on for the first time you ever read Pinch on

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah a cou­ple of years ago actu­al­ly Grav­i­ty’s Rain­bow a cou­ple of years ago but I’ve read anoth­er pinch on too

Cameron: Well I already had it in my books um and I think it was cause you told me about it and I don’t think I ever got around to start­ing it So I I I read a thing about him in the New York Times recent­ly and they were talk­ing about what a great author he was and uh I think I start I was gonna start one of his so yeah I’m enjoy­ing it It’s uh intense

Tony Kynas­ton: it Yeah

Cameron: Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: Um

Tony Kynas­ton: I mean just for peo­ple out there who haven’t picked it up it’s got some crazy plot lines in there about the V one bombers tar­get­ing the bed­rooms of of an agent who’s been sleep­ing with dif­fer­ent peo­ple in Lon­don and some­one’s try­ing to work it out and work out the prob­a­bil­i­ties of where it’s gonna land next And and then but that’s like that’s the plot [01:26:00] and that’s as that’s as much as you get of it cause it just goes off into all sorts of dif­fer­ent intri­cate and arcane mean­der­ings real­ly

Cameron: An intense style he has Do you um do you know uh Amer­i­can come­di­an called Tim Robin­son

Tony Kynas­ton: No

Cameron: any of his stuff

Tony Kynas­ton: I don’t think so

Cameron: Um

Tony Kynas­ton: Was­n’t there

Cameron: uh

Tony Kynas­ton: called was it Tim Robin­son or Tom Robin­son

Cameron: pos­si­bly Dun­no

Tony Kynas­ton: Even

Cameron: yeah Tom Tom Robert­son Hmm This guy was on SNL for a few years like over a decade ago but um he’s had a cou­ple of shows that we’ve real­ly loved One was called Detroi­ters and one was called I Think You Should Leave and he got a new show called The Chair Com­pa­ny which is only a cou­ple of episodes in we’ve only seen the first episode but it’s ter­rif­ic He he he tends to play real­ly real­ly angry white men who just get angry over noth­ing and bit bit sort of [01:27:00] John Cleese’s style like he’s just feels like the world is con­spir­ing against him and he has this uncon­trol­lable anger inside of him that comes out in inap­pro­pri­ate ways Um this new show the the Chair com­pa­ny he’s a office exec­u­tive and he’s doing a big pre­sen­ta­tion and it goes well and he’s in front of the entire busi­ness and he sits on a chair and it breaks and and they every­one laughs at him and it sort of ruins his self-esteem And then he starts believ­ing there’s a con­spir­a­cy uh from this chair com­pa­ny He starts hunt­ing down this chair com­pa­ny and he can’t find him cause it’s just a name with like a reg­is­tered office And he goes on this mad con­spir­a­to­r­i­al Hunt for this chair com­pa­ny that made him look bad Just tak­ing out all of his you know white mid­dle class anger on this chair com­pa­ny that um made him look like a fool Any­way he’s got a par­tic­u­lar style I dun­no if you e [01:28:00] every­one would appre­ci­ate it but we real­ly love it Just this these guys that just are angry for no par­tic­u­lar rea­son He’s got a good fam­i­ly wife kids they love him He’s got a good job Every­thing should be going great but he’s just angry for some rea­son and he can’t con­tain it Any­way I think that’s on Max Check it out

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah It sounds a bit like Curb your enthu­si­asm

Cameron: It’s a bit like that but it’s dif­fer­ent cause Lar­ry’s just Lar­ry’s just rich enough that he does­n’t need to care what peo­ple think

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah but he gets real­ly

Cameron: This guy’s

Tony Kynas­ton: over noth­ing

Cameron: he does get over Yeah Yeah Um uh Har­ry Van­der has got a new track out

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh

Cameron: Have did you catch that

Tony Kynas­ton: No

Cameron: Called Dev­il Loose he’s like 80 and he’s just come out with a new track I think you’d dig it It’s very sort of Van­der and Youngie

Tony Kynas­ton: Good

Cameron: good riffs called Dev­il Loose He’s just talk­ing about how crazy the world is Yeah 80 years old just came out with a new sin­gle [01:29:00] so I was you know we were talk­ing that had that thing a a cou­ple of months ago like the Triple J top Aus­tralian songs of all time kind of thing And I dun­no how many must of those would be Van­der and Young Tracks but there’d have to be at least

Tony Kynas­ton: be

Cameron: six 10 of those in the top 100 Um so I did­n’t even know he was still around but that was great to see And then we have our kung fu grad­ing this week back to Kung Fu Fight Club So we passed our pre-assess­ment I think the last time I was talk­ing to you we were had to do our pre-assess­ment We passed that So this Fri­day into the ring two hours of get­ting punched in the face So uh that should be fun Well at the first hour of it is demon­strat­ing all of our tech­niques in our form So we have to do base­ball bat defense knife so peo­ple run­ning at me with a base­ball bat We need to defend our­selves against an alu­minum base­ball bat being swung at our head

Tony Kynas­ton: I just had a vision of the Mabb Python sketch [01:30:00] John Cleese

Cameron: fish

Tony Kynas­ton: No

Cameron: or a base­ball bat

Tony Kynas­ton: I’m gonna show you how to defend your­self with a banana Come out here a banana

Cameron: the whole thing The rest of the fruits Yeah Uh we have to do knife defense um you know a whole bunch of spu­ri­ous Tech­niques that but then the sec­ond error is basi­cal­ly spar­ring So those of us that are grad­ing and there’s only a cou­ple of us are in the mid­dle of the room and then they have a line of 20 black belts that come in one minute at a time and they cycle through and we just keep going We don’t get a break It’s just go go go Peo­ple com­ing in and attack­ing you and you’re hav­ing to defend your­self against these peo­ple that are fresh You are knack­ered and it just goes on for Half an hour to an hour until you fall over And the sifu you know he he wants you to tire you out to see when you’re tired and you have noth­ing left in the tank What can you what [01:31:00] you know how how how can you uh defend your­self cause he says you know fights don’t nec­es­sar­i­ly they’re not nec­es­sar­i­ly over in a minute right Fights can go on a long time So what mat­ters is when you are exhaust­ed can you still keep your hands up and keep your guard up and move and han­dle the sit­u­a­tion So I will get punched in the nose uh many times and it’s still bro­ken so that should be fun

Tony Kynas­ton: what What

Cameron: Any­way so that’s this week This is the sec­ond brown belt for us lev­el six in our sys­tem So the next one is our black belt So next year we’ll be ready to do our black belt or the year after depend­ing on how long we go

Tony Kynas­ton: is Chris­sy gonna also be sub­ject to exact­ly the same force you are being sub­ject­ed to

Cameron: Yes

Tony Kynas­ton: it

Cameron: but

Tony Kynas­ton: females or they

Cameron: no

Tony Kynas­ton: female female No

Cameron: no no no no no no I mean look no one’s in there to kill us We’re not it’s not like delib­er­ate­ly full con­tact but it’s you know we’re wear­ing gloves and mouth guards and stuff and she Chris­sy got injured at two [01:32:00] weeks ago

We’re not try­ing to kill each oth­er but you know adren­a­line peo­ple throw stuff you miss stuff you mis­judge you walk into things You know what we always get told is in a real fight if you’re lucky you might block one punch And he always says you know there it does­n’t mat­ter how good you are you know there’s there’s a lim­it­ed num­ber of attacks you can block One’s always gonna get through right So you try and shut it down on the first one uh because every­one after that There’s a high­er per­cent­age that you’re gonna miss it and it’s gonna hit you But yeah Chris­sy’s been punched and kicked and she’s always full of bruis­es and corked mus­cles and every­thing Like I am She has­n’t any­thing bro­ken yet like I have But peo­ple will go hard­er on me because I’m me every­one

Tony Kynas­ton: What you’ve antag­o­nized every­one in the dojo have you [01:33:00] at some

Cameron: pret­ty much

Tony Kynas­ton: you wan­na wear a T‑shirt and they’re say­ing come on that all you got

Cameron: Yeah yeah yeah yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: uh

Cameron: I do that all the time

Tony Kynas­ton: Good

Cameron: Thanks That’s good Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: Wow And you pay for that do you

Cameron: I do I do To get

Tony Kynas­ton: it

Cameron: beat­en up

Tony Kynas­ton: You should

Cameron: Oh Fox will be video­ing it Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: you should put it up And even so we can see how to fend our­selves from a knife attack or a base­ball attack and what­ev­er

Cameron: Alright I’ll post some video of base­ball Bat Knife bat defense Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: so so no one’s gonna sneak up behind you with a base­ball bat one punch GR grad­ing over because that’s

Cameron: Uh no

Tony Kynas­ton: That’s I

Cameron: Yes Yeah yeah yeah Hard to defend your­self against sneak attacks though unless you’re a nin­ja Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: I remem­ber being in Katon Street in Bris­bane one New Year’s Eve and some­one com­ing out of the in the dark and just one punch­ing me [01:34:00] and

Cameron: Real­ly

Tony Kynas­ton: again Oh yeah yeah Is that’s what you got­ta defend your­self against camp You don’t see it com­ing

Cameron: What hap­pened to you

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh I

Cameron: Like were you did you

Tony Kynas­ton: stood up and he’d gone he ran back into his hid­ing hole wher­ev­er he was from and uh I stum­bled Got up and I remem­ber a a guy on the oth­er side of the road at a table over­look­ing Katon Street that came rac­ing over Yeah okay mate let me buy you a beer And took me over to his group of friends and looked after me and Yeah Had a few beers with them He used like we thought you were gone We thought you were gone And I’m like oh but mate

Cameron: Wow

Tony Kynas­ton: got up again It was like it was fine to me must have been must

Cameron: So you guy did­n’t mug you or any­thing He just did­n’t like the

Tony Kynas­ton: Some

Cameron: of you just

Tony Kynas­ton: to be the guy guy

Cameron: uh tall tall ringers I mean you’re a walkin tar­get real­ly Aren’t you

Tony Kynas­ton: big guys in gen­er­al. There’s always some lit­tle guy out there who wants to you.

Cameron: Have a crack Yeah Yeah yeah yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: When I was [01:35:00] younger,

Cameron: Alright

Tony Kynas­ton: Ooh.

Cameron: you got any golf or horse news

Tony Kynas­ton: News. I’ve got, uh, Qua­lo Doto run­ning tomor­row, which peo­ple may not hear in time, but Wednes­day at Gee­long and Dou­ble Mar­ket was scratch from the Avo­ca Cup on Sat­ur­day and she’ll run on Fri­day night at Moon Val­ley. So, um,

Cameron: you had any wins late­ly

Tony Kynas­ton: nah, BES was a sec­ond with Lake For­est a cou­ple of weeks ago, so that’s not too bad.

Cameron: Well good luck Hope you get a win­ner

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. And Steve’s in, Steve MA’s in dou­ble Mar­ket with me, so it’ll be dou­bly good if we can get a win.

Cameron: I was gonna when we were talk­ing to Gabriel and he was talk­ing about he was talk­ing at some point about hors­es and uh you know I know we were talk­ing about hors­es we were talk­ing about Steve Mabb and I was gonna point out at one point that you and Steve had a horse but I the oppor­tu­ni­ty did­n’t uh rise Arise

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah. Okay.

Cameron: let’s go talk about the US mar­ket I’m we’re gonna talk about [01:36:00] eggs Eggs very excit­ing I’m very excit­ed to talk about eggs All right Have a good week every­one

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Bernard: Q A V is a check­list-based sys­tem of val­ue invest­ing devel­oped by Tony  Khyne­ston. over 25 years. To learn more about how it works and how you can learn the sys­tem, vis­it our web­site, Q A V Pod­cast dot com dot A U.

This pod­cast is an infor­ma­tion provider and in giv­ing you prod­uct infor­ma­tion we are not mak­ing any sug­ges­tion or rec­om­men­da­tion about a par­tic­u­lar prod­uct. The infor­ma­tion has been pre­pared with­out tak­ing into account your indi­vid­ual invest­ment objec­tives, finan­cial cir­cum­stances or needs. Before you decide whether or not to acquire a par­tic­u­lar finan­cial prod­uct you should assess whether it is appro­pri­ate for you in the light of your own per­son­al cir­cum­stances, hav­ing regard to your own objec­tives, finan­cial sit­u­a­tion and needs. You may wish to obtain finan­cial advice from a suit­ably qual­i­fied [01:37:00] advis­er before mak­ing any deci­sion to acquire a finan­cial prod­uct. Please note that all infor­ma­tion about per­for­mance returns is his­tor­i­cal. Past per­for­mance should not be relied upon as an indi­ca­tor of future per­for­mance; unit prices and the val­ue of your invest­ment may fall as well as rise. The results are gen­er­al advice only and not per­son­al prod­uct advice.

Trans­paren­cy is impor­tant to us. We will always be very open and hon­est about the stocks we own. We will also always give our audi­ence advance notice when we intend to buy or sell a stock that we are going to talk about on the pod­cast. This is so we can nev­er be accused of pump­ing a stock to our own advan­tage. If we talk about a stock we cur­rent­ly own, we will make it known that we own it.

This email is autho­rised by Antho­ny  Khyne­ston. Autho­rised Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Num­ber zero zero 1 2 9 2 7 1 8 of M F & Co. Asset Man­age­ment Pro­pri­etary Lim­it­ed (A F S L five [01:38:00] 2 zero 4 4 2).
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Quote of the day:

There can be no seri­ous con­flicts on Earth, in which one group or anoth­er can seize more pow­er than it has for what it thinks is its own good despite the harm to Mankind as a whole, while the Machines rule.

I, Robot, Isaac Asi­mov