This week’s episode is for QAV Club members only. You can listen to one of our free episodes by clicking the below link and opening up our pages on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or watch clips on TikTok. Or visit our homepage to learn more about QAV and how it works as a value investing system that you can learn and apply to beat the market.
Transcription
QAV AU 836 AUDIO
Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to the QAV Australia, episode 8 3 6. We’re recording this on Tuesday the 9th of September, 2025. Tony Ton. What do you know, tk?
Tony Kynaston: What do I know? I know we have a big show ready to go for people.
Cameron: I think so.
Tony Kynaston: Yeah.
Cameron: Well, I think there’s only one question, but there’s, I dunno, two some comments. Um,
Tony Kynaston: was your Father’s Day?
Cameron: oh, I beat Taylor at a game of chess, so that was good. Of course he said, oh, I wasn’t paying attention, but, uh, you know, it’s, I’ll take it. What about you?
Tony Kynaston: yeah. Pretty quiet. Yeah, just had a nice day down here. A few gifts, which was lovely.
Cameron: Lovely. I got a plant, which you can maybe see it’s blurry, but I, Chrissy gave me a pot plant for my office, which is nice.
Tony Kynaston: All good.
Cameron: Well, the, my big, the big win for me [00:01:00] over the weekend though, Tony, was, I coded successfully, finally the audit checker. And as an extra, extra bonus, I threw in a buyback checker just for you,
Tony Kynaston: well done. Thank you.
Cameron: my fourth attempt, I think, or fifth attempt over the course of a year to get the automated audit checker working.
And I stumbled across the way to do it late, like I thunk Friday night or something like that. And I was like, oh, what? And then spent the weekend in my spare time when I wasn’t at kung fu coding it. And uh, by Sunday night it was working. And it was, uh, a good feeling. A good feeling.
Tony Kynaston: So
Cameron: So
Tony Kynaston: How do you find the annual report statement?
Cameron: I. So I was having a crack at something and um, I was in duck, duck go, you know, duck, duck go.
It’s a alternate search engine to [00:02:00] Google and I was searching for a report for something. I can’t remember what I was doing. And I found this ASX Announcements website, URL structure on the ASX that I’d never seen before. Um, that has a list of all of the announcements and the URL just finishes with the ticket code.
It’s like this long URL, and it has the finishes with the ticket code of the stock. So you just replace the
Tony Kynaston: Alright.
Cameron: at the end and you get the URL of all of their announcements like you would in a Stock Doctor announcements page, but it’s on the ASX. So yeah, I just, I, I wrote a script that could just pull up each stocks page scrolled, I had to do some mucking around to figure out there, there’s no standard terminology for what annual reports and half yearly reports are called.
Everyone calls ’em something slightly [00:03:00] different. Not everyone, but there’s a. There’s an Appendix four E, but there’s like full year statutory accounts. Uh, annual FY 25 annual report. Um, the 2025 annual report. There’s a, there’s a number of variations. So, um, I put together a script that contains all of those sort of variations.
It goes looking for one of those and also the half yearly reports that there’s no annual report. And so then it downloads those. So then I ended up with a download folder, um, of all of the annual and half year reports from the last year for all of the companies that were in the Stock Doctor download.
That’s what I focused on. I gave my script a big list of 650 ticket codes and said, download the most recent annual or finance or half year reports for all of these companies. Then once they had that, that was the first step. The second step was to write a script that [00:04:00] could. Scroll through, crawl through all of those reports, look for terminology for that.
All the stuff that we did with, uh, Jamie a few years ago, all the different terminology. And basically if it finds any of that terminology, it flags it. And if it doesn’t find any of that terminology, it gives it a clean bill of health unmodified. Um, it also tells us whether it’s an audit or a review.
’cause sometimes it’s not a full audit, but if it’s a review and they don’t flag it, it’s still usually okay and it just throws it into a spreadsheet, which then I can use my checklist to go and, you know, just check anything that we don’t have. So I’ve updated everything, so I only need to run it probably mostly twice a year after reporting season.
But for some of those that report outside of reporting season, banks and retailers and whatever, I can run ’em a little bit later on, but takes a couple hours to [00:05:00] run. Downloads everything. Crawls it, classifies it, sticks it in a spreadsheet. Bob’s your uncle. And then I noticed when I was looking at this announcements page, it also has buyback announcements on there.
So I wrote another version of the script that says, flag all of the ones that have a buyback, and give me the date of the latest of the most recent buyback announcements. So if you look in the buy list that I published, uh, yesterday, if you look at the member version, go to the hidden tabs, you’ll see a hidden tab that says buybacks, and it has all of the stocks with buybacks.
So if you want us to start adding that into the checklist, um, I can change my checklist, scoring code just to give a score for a buyback and start adding that into the checklist. It should be relatively trivial from now on.
Tony Kynaston: Yeah, right. I think we should.
Cameron: What kind of a score are we gonna give buybacks?
Tony Kynaston: isn’t it? It’s gotta be at least one. Um, [00:06:00] yeah, I mean, uh, yeah, I think we’ll start with one. I might do some more research and mean, I’ve been thinking about that very question as well, and it’s, it’s almost alike. I need to do a bit of work to say, stocks on the buy list from say, six months ago or 12 months ago. Here’s where they scored. Let’s look at their performance. Was it always a hundred percent success rate if, you know it became a three point trend line upturn or if it whatever, from when we scored it. And then, uh, it’s like a probability range, but that’s a fair bit of work. So, um, I think we just give buybacks one at this stage.
Cameron: Okay. Well I’ll start coding that up, um, when I get a chance and, um, I’ll let you know when it’s in place, but yeah.
Tony Kynaston: I’ll my by two.
Cameron: Yeah,
Tony Kynaston: Yeah.
Cameron: so, so there you go. I’ll run that every week anyway. And um, I’ll have an updated list of buybacks. But [00:07:00] it was like, I tell you, man, there’s a, it’s a good feeling when you’ve been trying to nut out a problem like this.
And the closest I can come to is if you’ve, when you’ve been eating lamb shanks and you get a little bit of lamb stuck in your teeth and you, you’re kinda working it out and, you know, it takes kind of an hour. Sometimes you kind of, you don’t wanna get a toothpick ’cause that would mean getting off the lounge.
So you just sit there and you, you, you use your tongue and eventually you get it out. That feeling of deep satisfaction, it’s a bit like that.
I know, ’cause I made lamb shanks on the weekend too.
Tony Kynaston: okay. Yeah. Good.
Cameron: So that was exciting.
Tony Kynaston: No. Well done.
Cameron: Thank you. Goodheart’s Law. Tony, I read about, I stumbled across this over the weekend too, Goodheart’s Law. I thought, this sounds familiar. I’ve never heard you refer to it as Goodheart’s Law, but you’ve basically, I thought it was ton’s law.
Goodheart’s Law is an adage that has been stated as, when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure named after British economist Charles [00:08:00] Goodheart, who is credited with expressing the core idea of the adage. In a 1975 article on monetary policy in the United Kingdom, any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.
It was used to criticize the British Thatcher government for trying to conduct monetary policy on the basis of targets for broad and narrow money. But the law reflects a much more general phenomenon. Uh, as I’ve heard you talk about ROE and pe.
Tony Kynaston: Yes. That was the very first thing that jumped into my mind when you sent through that link. Very much so. Yeah. People are gonna gain the target.
Cameron: Yeah.
Tony Kynaston: As Charlie Munger said, show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome.
Cameron: Yeah.
Tony Kynaston: I think the difficulty is that, uh, uh, Peter Drucker, I think it was also said, you can’t manage what you can’t measure.
So we do need measurements and targets. It’s just they’ve gotta be really [00:09:00] well and monitored for gaming and for other variances or change regularly to
Cameron: Mm-hmm.
Tony Kynaston: Yeah.
Cameron: At Microsoft, we used to say that, which gets measured, gets done, but that’s a different thing, you know? Um, yeah. You have to measure things. You have to measure, measure your metrics, your KPIs and all that kind stuff. But I, I, if. The markets are rewarding companies on certain metrics, then they will inevitably, in some cases, get gamed, particularly if performance bonuses and incentives are built around them.
Tony Kynaston: Yeah. And especially if the targets aren’t well set, and the article you sent through gave a good example of set a target for selling cars, someone will eventually sell cars at a loss to achieve the target,
Cameron: Yeah,
Tony Kynaston: for the business. Right, and not the intention.
Cameron: well, it’s the paperclip paradigm with ai, the paperclip scenario that I’m sure you’ve heard about the, uh, well it’s, it’s been around for decades, like, um, in [00:10:00] AI circles, well before the current AI paradigm. But, uh, the, the theory is you build a super intelligent AI and you give it the job of making paperclips.
If you, if it’s told that’s what it has to do, it will dismantle everything on the planet in order to make paper clips. Right? So you have to.
Tony Kynaston: a potential outcome for ai. I, I suspect it’s gonna be data centers and electricity generation or nuclear reactors rather than paperclips. But yeah, you can see a future where we, we have nuclear reactors on every corner to power the ai.
Cameron: Yeah. Well, uh, I tell you, who’s not gonna be able to afford to, uh, build nuclear power stations in every corner as Donald Trump? Uh,
Tony Kynaston: Really? Didn’t he make $2 billion last month or something from another coin issue?
Cameron: well, he, he personally might be able to afford it. I don’t think his economy is, uh, New York Times article. Second week jobs report [00:11:00] week as in WEAK, not WEEK. Second week jobs report undercuts Trump’s claims of a booming economy. After a bad employment report in August, president Trump fired the official in charge of the numbers.
This month’s data was just as disappointing.
Tony Kynaston: We’d hate
Cameron: So, uh.
Tony Kynaston: you? You wouldn’t wanna walk into the Oval Office and find plastic on the floor if you were heading up the government stats after that.
Cameron: With, uh, Christian Bales singing, giving you a lecture on Huey Lewis and the news and, uh, why their 1985 album was a classic. Yeah, I mean, oh, the, the, this article went on to talk about all the stuff that, um, we’ve sort of joked about. Over the last couple of months, analysts offered a variety of explanations for the slowdown the president’s tariffs on.
Nearly all imports have driven up costs for companies and prices for consumers. Mr. Trump’s immigration [00:12:00] crackdown has made it harder for many businesses to find workers while simultaneously reducing the need for them because they now have fewer customers. The federal government has cut jobs directly and canceled grants and contracts that have bled into the private sector.
The uncertainty. Surrounding Mr. Trump’s ever shifting policies has made corporate executives more cautious about hiring and investing. But those explanations all ultimately boiled down to one key factor. Mr. Trump, who regained control of the White House on promises of faster growth and lower prices, has established policies that are having precisely the opposite effect.
Inflation data due next week is expected to show the consumer prices rose more quickly in August as companies increasingly pass along the cost of higher tariffs. We’ve got a private sector that’s caught in a pinch here between these higher cost pressures and reduced demand, said Gregory Darko, not Tarko.
That would be President Tarko, but this is Gregory Darko. Not D‑A-R-K‑O as in Donny [00:13:00] Darko, but DACO, chief Economist for the consulting firm. EY Parthenon. Ey Parthenon really did they merge with the Parthenon? Both measures, whether it’s inflation or employment, are moving in the wrong direction. They’re moving toward a stagflationary environment.
Explain to me again what stagflation is, Tony,
Tony Kynaston: Oh, it’s um, uh, countries like Zimbabwe experience where CPI goes through the roof, the economy goes backwards and inflation just goes into overdrive. So you get, you know, you get inflation of hundreds or thousands of a percent, basically economy’s stuffed
Cameron: Oh, okay. That’s, that’s the technical term. The economy stuffed,
Tony Kynaston: Costs, costs go up and growth goes down,
Cameron: right?
Tony Kynaston: Quickly at the same time. Yeah. But of course, what tariffs can, they’ve just been, uh, overturned by an appellate [00:14:00] court, so there are no tariffs.
Cameron: Mm. Well, not technically yet. I, he’s, he’s still gonna appeal that, taking that to the Supreme Court. I did see the other day that, I mean, they’ve raised hundreds of billions of dollars from tariffs already, and they’re gonna have to pay it all back. If the Supreme Court says, nah, sorry, which is unlikely, but if they do do that, he’s gotta pay hundreds of billions of dollars back.
And then that’s gotta go back into the food chain. Everyone needs to reimburse everyone who’s paid. By the way, you see that they’ve, they’ve, um, Australia posters stopped shipping parcels of a certain sized.
Tony Kynaston: below $800. Yeah.
Cameron: Was it re did we decide that’s how they were pronounced?
Tony Kynaston: Oh,
Cameron: Satire CTT, what’s happened to their share price this week? I hasten to, I should just look at your pulled pork track record spreadsheet and, um, that’ll tell me, uh, [00:15:00] CTTI think it had been factored in for a while, but it,
Tony Kynaston: We spoke about it when I did the pulled pork,
Cameron: they’re killing it.
Their share prices jumped from 33 cents over the last couple of days to 45 cents. What, what, what’s going on? How does that make any sense?
Tony Kynaston: people have just gotten around to the pulled pork hearing about the pulled pork and said, uh.
Cameron: Satire drops to full year loss as revenue growth. Flatlines and director walks online fashion retailer satire has tumbled to a statutory net loss after tax of 2.6 million from a 10.5 million profit last year. As the company cited significant headwinds driving a slowdown in demand during the period.
Company director Daniel AGAs Delli has also departed the board after only being appointed in April to focus on his role as CEO of extent group the numbers. However, [00:16:00] analysts were expecting a worse loss of three 8.7 million according to visible alpha data. They were like, ah, it’s great. Wasn’t as, they didn’t lose as much money as we thought.
Give the, give those people a prize. SATIRE shares jumped on Friday as analysts raise concerns over hikes to executive pay in the departure of a director after less than six months on the board. What they said in a note to clients, RBC analyst, www Chen said Satire’s top line results were largely in line with expectations, but raised concerns that the company’s working capital balance is continuing to unwind.
After cash on the books fell by $8 million.
Anyway, Daniel Ag Goss Delli is out after four months. Wow.
Tony Kynaston: he was on the board. He’s the CEO of ASX one, which is, has been on our buy list before as well. The, the shoe company,
Cameron: Yes. Well, anyway, there you go. So you pulled Pork Track records probably looking even better now. [00:17:00] Tony, like, uh, you’re killing it.
Tony Kynaston: 55 cents when I did the pulled pork, if I’m honest.
Cameron: Okay. Dammit. well,
Tony Kynaston: I’m honest, during the pulled pork, I said it had fallen below its byline
Cameron: yes. Yes.
Tony Kynaston: Mm-hmm.
Cameron: Yeah. Okay. So you get an out for that one
Tony Kynaston: Yeah, I get a, I get a card,
Cameron: anymore.
Tony Kynaston: that want.
Cameron: So, so the us So Australia posters stopped shipments because of the, uh, can’t remember what they call it.
Tony Kynaston: they dunno how to collect the tariff or how it’s gonna be collected. So they can’t charge the customer before they mail an amount because they dunno how it’s gonna be collected when it gets to the US So, and Australia Post is just following suit with all, you know, a lot of other countries around the world that have stopped doing it as well. Yeah. So, uh, you know, you wonder what’s gonna happen to the US economy. What happens to [00:18:00] Amazon companies like that. Um,
Cameron: Well, Amazon’s.
Tony Kynaston: for small
Cameron: they? Well, but they’re domestic, right? You imagine it’s Amazon’s being shipped domestically in the US not coming in from overseas.
Tony Kynaston: a lot, coming from China, I would’ve thought. And other countries
Cameron: Yeah, maybe, but it’s anything over, I think $800.
Tony Kynaston: the minimus was the law, which said if a parcel was less than $800 US, it didn’t attract, uh, customs and excise duty. That applies to larger parcels.
Cameron: Right. So they’ve stopped shipping any parcels. Is that right? Regardless of the value.
Tony Kynaston: Now Australia Post is still, I think, still shipping post parcels above $800 in value. And you know, you want, I think the other problem would be is, um, uh. [00:19:00] Well, no, I was gonna say people would be falsifying what they put on as the value of the parcel that it probably doesn’t matter. Yeah, I don’t, I don’t know. Um, if Australia Post is still posting to the us the, the article I read said about we just weren’t posting small parcels to the us The larger ones would’ve been attracting the, um, the exercises anyway, so they would’ve known how to handle that.
Cameron: Here’s the notice on Australia Post website. Um, Australia Post has temporarily suspended some postal services to the US in its overseas territories. They plan to resume postal sending on or before Thursday, the 25th of September, 2025. The USD $800 exemption for low value goods has been removed for postal and commercial sending duties are to be collected prior to goods entering the us What does this mean for you?
[00:20:00] Once postal services resume, you’ll need to set up a verified account with Zenoss to ensure your shipments are accepted and minimize the risk of processing delays. Okay. Hope nobody orders marketing the Messiah on USB, because I’m not gonna, I’m not gonna set up one of those
Tony Kynaston: Mm.
Cameron: Um, there you go. So just fun and games with the US economy.
I mean, I mean, I’m shocked and surprised that, uh, electing Donald Trump could lead the chaos. Tony, and I don’t think anyone saw that coming.
Tony Kynaston: And, and this is the least of the chaos, I would’ve thought, like, you know, um, holding a cage fight in the White House is probably the best example I’ve seen of the chaos that’s going on the, in the us the south lawn into a Um, to, to be able to hold concerts and things in it. It’s just incredible.
Cameron: And he was hawking Tesla cars in the front lawn
Tony Kynaston: [00:21:00] Yes,
Cameron: days of him and Elon.
Tony Kynaston: And it’s, and Elon’s now being offered a trillion dollars to focus on, uh, targets. Speaking of on Tesla’s share price to reach
Cameron: A trillion dollars in remuneration
Tony Kynaston: So you can actually say that being a part of the White House actually has worked out very long ’cause it’s,
Cameron: because it defocused him.
Tony Kynaston: he’ll be fairly, fairly familiar with good hearts.
Laura would’ve thought he’ll be, he’ll be achieving his targets by hook or by crook.
Cameron: Oh, by Gro and optimist robots.
Tony Kynaston: It’d be probably share splits or something to get the share price to where he needs it to be or whatever. issues. Share buybacks. Yeah,
Cameron: Wow.
Tony Kynaston: you take, you’d take that, wouldn’t you? Yeah.
I’ll focus on the share price. Now. We’re doing a buyback.
Cameron: Does he need another trillion dollars though? Really?
Tony Kynaston: You never ask a billionaire if they need another billion dollars, can, of course they do. They need more.
Cameron: Yeah. [00:22:00] I was talking to Santino before about, um,
Tony Kynaston: Got how
Cameron: he’s got
Tony Kynaston: kids? or
Cameron: kids. Yeah, yeah.
Uh, OPEC plus agrees further oil output boost from October to regain market share. I don’t imagine that’s gonna be a good thing for the oil price, Tony.
Tony Kynaston: wouldn’t have thought. So. Supply and demand law. Yep. So, um. You expect the oil price to drop, uh, which is what Trump wants. So I wonder if there’s something else going on there between Saudi Arabia and Donald Trump. Yeah. You know, could be a bit of quid pro quo. I don’t know. But yeah, it probably will mean that the petrol price will drop it.
Cameron: Mm.
Tony Kynaston: Another example of Donald Trump winning.
Cameron: Just nonstop winning. Oh, that’s all I’ve got [00:23:00] on my news. Well, there are some things that Steve sent through. There’s been a few. Please explain letters. Do you wanna talk about the Please Explain letters.
Tony Kynaston: Yeah, look, we, we’ve covered it a lot. There was three that, um, or two that Steve gave and one that you gave. Um, the examples that Steve gave were koan, uh, metal detector company James Hardy, the building materials company. And then you put out one for room media included one for a media. All three companies have received speeding tickets from the ASX, or please explain letters as to why, um, the share prices moved materially. I think all three, the movements happened after annual reports came out. Um, and you would expect that, uh, if the, if management thought that the share price was gonna move materially into August, they should have. the market somehow. Um, there’s always it’s, look, it’s getting to the stage where it’s actually fun to read these [00:24:00] responses from the companies just to see how twisted they can get. Um, uh, I, I’m careful with what I say, so it’s not actionable, but, um, one of those three companies said, uh, we were within guidance of 2%. Uh, full disclosure, that was, except for the large intangible write down, we took on. On the balance sheet, which was never, never announced to the market until the results came out. And I’m sure if they were pressed, they’d say, well, we didn’t think about it until just before we announced it. Another one of the companies said, um, the board didn’t come to a conclusion on guidance until half an hour before we issued the, uh, ASX announcement. So I’m thinking to myself like, it isn’t so until the board says it’s so, it’s like surely someone prepared the papers that went to the board that caused them to, uh, to, you know, issue guidance that, uh, move the share price.
So, you know, it’s, it’s becoming comical now what, um, what these companies do and what the ASX does. [00:25:00] Uh, I did a bit of Googling, uh, after I saw this was an issue. And, um, there are, there have been cases where. Continuous guidance has been prosecuted by the, uh, by asic. So the ASX doesn’t seem to do anything.
So that’s one criticism I have is that they issue these notices to the company saying, please tell us why share price is up or down by a large amount, and why, and have you been, uh, adhering to the Corporations Act, which says you must keep the market informed. And they come back with their, with their answers.
And that’s the last we hear of it. There’s never any announcement from the ASX challenging the company’s response or saying, Hey, this is not good enough. We’re gonna de-list you for a while. We’re gonna fine you. And maybe that’s not the as x’s role, but they don’t even say how we’re referring this to the, um, A SIC, the asic, the securities, um. Regulator and there have been cases about half a dozen. I could see quickly with [00:26:00] Googling about companies which have been fined by ASIC for breaches of continuous disclosure. it seems like ASIC Pro quite possibly has to set a, a very high bar. to be very extreme examples that get fined.
One of which are I as to add was by the ASX itself. The company that runs the shared market was taken to court for a disclosure issue or a transparency issue. So, um, yeah, I I’ve long thought that there needs to be something else done here. Um, when Steve sent through the email, my immediate thought was setting up some rules. If you, if your share price moves by a certain amount on results day and you are outside the guidance of by a particular percent, um, then, you know it’s a sliding scale. Fine. It’s 50 grand for the first one, 50 50 grand per 1% deviation or something like that. Just to try and prod these companies to disclose earlier. Uh, as we’ve said, it’s in their own best [00:27:00] interest to disclose early ’cause it’s likely to be, if they know it’s going to be a, a hit to the share price, the sooner you can get it out there, it’s be quite possibly gonna be better for them. still get a hit to the share price, but they have, um, time to, you know, take action and do things,
Cameron: You say 50 grand, I say five years.
Tony Kynaston: or,
what the directors
Cameron: Yeah. Yeah. Five years.
Tony Kynaston: then you don’t get, any directors. They’ll resign from the CIW board on that basis.
Cameron: No. We’ll get to other directors. If you, if you, if you don’t give, if you don’t give guidance, if you just do your job, just people who will do the job is who will do it? Pay me $500,000 a year and I’ll do my job. All we’re asking them to do is give us advanced warning if the results aren’t gonna be what they said they were gonna be, that’s all.
It’s not rocket science here, and if you don’t do it, you go to jail five years, boom. Like, like politicians lying. If you say, if [00:28:00] you make a campaign promise, then you get elected and you don’t deliver on it. Automatic five years in jail, what gets measured? Tony Good Heart’s Law
Tony Kynaston: well, that’s why I agree. I don’t think, I don’t think jail terms is the right solution. I think company finds is when, for a start, um,
Cameron: there’s nothing. It’s a slap on the wrist. You just make sure the profit is bigger than the fine. Right. And it’s, no, we know company fines don’t work Jail time, hard time too. Not a, not a, not a fancy CEO jail. I’m talking about Bogger Road, H Division, chopper Reed is your cellmate. That kind of jail time.
Tony Kynaston: Hi. What are you NH division for? Uh, armed. Hold up. What are you in? Kind of the same thing, but it was a breach of continuous disclosure.
Cameron: Absolutely. Hey, by the way, I dunno if you saw this, but the OML response to the ASX letter was signed by their company secretary,
Tony Kynaston: mm-hmm.
Cameron: um, who, that was on the, her name was, uh, [00:29:00] Melissa Jones. That was on the 2nd of September. On the 3rd of September when Melissa Jones resigned as company secretary. Effective immediately.
Yeah. Uh, and, uh, their announcement says, Ooh, would like to thank Melissa for her valuable contribution as company secretary.
Tony Kynaston: Uh, could be incident. I don’t know. What are you, what are you implying?
Cameron: I’m not implying anything. I’m just saying that she wrote this long justification, well signed this long justification letter, and then resigned the next day and left effective immediately.
Tony Kynaston: I’d suspect the, um, yeah, go on.
Cameron: I’m just saying it’s, uh, I don’t know. Maybe that was it. Maybe she was like, yeah, I can’t do this anymore. Maybe it was like, throw her under the bus. I don’t know.
Tony Kynaston: uh,
Cameron: Who knows?
Tony Kynaston: but, um, don’t know, dunno the circumstances, but I mean, I think the, she may have signed the letter, but I think it would’ve been prepared by the company lawyers.
Cameron: [00:30:00] Sure.
Tony Kynaston: Yeah, and that’s
Cameron: As w.
Tony Kynaston: that’s what the problem Mabb is having.
Even if you had five year jail terms for directors, that you’d be held up in court for at least that time. While lawyers argued about what continuous disclosure meant. What does a reasonable per, who is a reasonable person, what are they expected to do, et cetera, et cetera. You’ve gotta
Cameron: no.
Tony Kynaston: gotta around it.
Cameron: Yeah, no lawfare allowed. That’s part of the conditions. Yeah. No appeals. No appeals. Just immediate jail time. Just off you go. ice. Like ice turns up, but it’s like, it’s like you’re a worker at a Hyundai plant. Ice works up. Ice rocks up. in the band, you’re in the van. Next thing you know it, you’re in, I don’t know, Nicaragua or wherever they’re sending them.
Wherever the black sites are. CIA black sites for jails. Yeah.
Tony Kynaston: a black side? I thought they were just like getting to Texas and unloading the dump truck.
Cameron: Throwing them into, what is it, [00:31:00] alligator heaven. What’s the name of the jail? Something. Um, yeah, no, but you throw them black sights in Syria, like the CIA was doing during the bush years. Well, anyway. Yes. So asic you’re writing letters and we’ll see if they do anything else apart from just
Tony Kynaston: No,
Cameron: wag. Waggle a finger.
Tony Kynaston: the corporate lawyers are applying and that’s just, that’s where it ends. Some of these will get picked up as class actions. Um,
Cameron: Yeah. Right.
Tony Kynaston: I think I’d be surprised if James Hardy, which is one of the examples Steve gave, isn’t, um, in the crosses at the moment, uh, by corp, by um, class action laws, but probably not for continuous disclosure. I mean, there anyone wants to Google, James Hardy in the last few months will find articles about their acquisition of an American company. Um, what was it called? Aec, I think it’s called. So
Cameron: Yeah.
Tony Kynaston: are company. They operate mainly in the us but they have a legacy of, [00:32:00] um, being an Australian company.
They produced plasterboard, which contained asbestos back in the, up until about the mid
Cameron: Good old days. Hmm.
Tony Kynaston: so they’ve had this, um, liability. I mean, that was the first time that that was actually when directors were prosecuted personally. The James Harley board did face personal prosecution, which is very rare under the corporation’s law. Uh, and the upsell of all of that was that, um, directors will find and barred, and James Hardy was told to set up a fund, which I think is, has a liability of about gonna say one and a half billion dollars, that kind of order of magnitude, which they’re meant to pay out of free cashflow going forward until all the victims of the asbestosis, uh, compensated, uh, including those which come forward in the future. So, um, it’s, uh, it’s, it’s been a. It’s, it’s had its problems. Um, it, it’s, it has had some success in [00:33:00] moving to the US for its operations and it’s done well there. But, Trump’s tariffs seem to have killed the renovation business in the us. Um, one of the issues over there, of course, is their mortgages are different to what they are here and they’re fixed over a long period of time, say 30 years.
And if you locked in a long-term mortgage, when in COVID when interest rates were 2%, you’re not about to move house now and face your mortgage to 6% or 7%. Um. You’ll stay where you are, which means that people aren’t moving and therefore there’s not as much renovation going on and building going on. And so James Hardy is in, in the, in the doldrums at the moment. I was looking for growth that acquired this US company. The issue at hand was that they applied to the ASX to get a waiver to, um, avoid a shareholder James Hardy shareholder vote on the takeover of the US company, involved the issuing of something like 35% of new shares in the company in James Hardy to acquire this, [00:34:00] uh, US company.
And all the Australian shareholders mean, whoa, whoa. What do you mean you gonna take this company over issue 35% more shares and not ask us to vote on it? ’cause there are rules around how much you can, how many shares you can issue without going to a shareholder vote. It’s normally around 10% per annum. Uh, and the ASX gave ’em a waiver which caused all kinds of ructions in the funds management issue, all kinds of backlash against the ASX.
And James Har, Hardy, uh, who then came out and said they were going to move their listing from Australia to the, uh, us. So their primary listing will be in the us. Um, there has been some crumbling that, that may problems for the asbestos liability being enforced, but, um, that’s hasn’t come out.
The company hasn’t come out and said that they’re not going to do that. Um, but who knows? The people who are at the asbestos liability are a bit worried, um, about its continuing, um, [00:35:00] funding and it’s being funded outta free cashflow. And, uh, they’re having a bad time. On the profit line. So funding may go down going forward too.
So there’s a whole of issues around James Hardy and I, my gut feel is the least of which will be continuous disclosure, um, if it even survives as an ASX listed company in Australia.
Cameron: JHC the record, if you. Really?
Tony Kynaston: I think so.
Cameron: Oh, oh yeah. JHX. You’re right. Sorry. JHX.
What else you got to talk about tk.
Tony Kynaston: Uh, we, well, we’ve had some good results. Um, I’m just gonna, uh, including our old friend, uh, NWH,
Cameron: I.
Tony Kynaston: so let me call that one up. NWH, uh, which is, um, I think the code for NRW, which is a, a, uh. Company providing contracting services to [00:36:00] the mining industry. the head, the headline reads, NRW shares pop on deal that ticks all 20, 25 boxes. WA based contractor, NRW Holdings is an ASX 200 staple. makes most of its money building and maintaining mine site and civil infrastructure, writing the ups and downs on the mining cycle, and its customers include Rio Tinto and BHP. Um, the article goes on the talk about, uh, it, it’s faced, uh. Almost continuous, uh, opposition to its REM report, but doesn’t seem to matter because, uh, the stock is up 77% since US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements in April. uh, uh, bumped along by its FY 25 result, and on Tuesday by its biggest acquisition yet. So NRW are buying electrical and tech contractor called Frieden, F‑R-E-D-O-N‑A, Sydney based business that, uh, they’ve written up as, this is the AFR I’m talking about. I’m [00:37:00] reading from an AFR article, a Sydney based business that we’ve written up as an IPO contender just about every year for the past five years for up to $200 million.
So, um, yeah, NRW doing well, uh, it’s been on the buy list before strong. Good results,
Cameron: I’ve been really good in, uh, my portfolios too.
Tony Kynaston: Okay. Uh, other good ones. Um, Percy is gold, so I kind of call it out. Um, they have, they’ve been, you know, going up because of the gold price increase as most other gold miners are. They are a West African gold miners. So, um, we do know about sovereign risk, which we spoke about a couple of weeks ago. Uh, profit after tax increased by 16% and um, the gold price was up 26%.
And revenue rose kind of in line with that up 22%. [00:38:00] Um, costs have risen a little bit. They rose 17%. So what’s called the all in sustainable cost, is a way of, um, keeping, uh, costs, uh, equally measured across gold companies. That was up 17%. Um. What else? Cashflow jumped by 25%, et cetera, et cetera. Um, so good result.
The reason why I’m highlighting it is that Stock Doctor have recently made it a star stock I think a star income stock too. So, uh, it gets an extra tick on our checklist. Because of that,
Cameron: Very good.
Tony Kynaston: The last one to talk about is IGL. It’s the code Ive group, IVE group. And uh, they also have become a star growth and star income stock. Um, and Stock Doctor put them in following their results. So. IVE is Australia’s largest integrated print and marketing services company serving major [00:39:00] retailers such as Kohl’s, Woolworths, and West Farmers. So since acquiring OTOs assets in 2022, uh, uh, sort of competitor printing company, has cemented its market leadership, expanded customer relationships, and achieved meaningful synergies.
So, uh, what else can I say? Dividend was up, um, yield of 6.3%, 9% grossed up a fairly low payout ratio of 54%. Um, although I think it’s gone next dividend today, so it might be a little bit late if anyone wants to go out and buy a, yielding star stock here a bit late probably. they have invested in warehouse improvements, so they’ve invested a large warehouse in Dandenong and in a place called Kemp’s Creek in Sydney. And both of those are expected to add significantly to capacity inefficiency. Um, revenue did drip or [00:40:00] dip slightly between 25 24 and, um, ROE strong at 24%. So number of issues there that the, um, I think the feeling is the print market is relatively in decline. You know, newspapers obviously is an example of that.
Um, magazines are an example of that, but this company’s to have successfully, branched out into producing labels on packaged goods and boxes and printing cartons, et cetera. So going well for it.
Cameron: Good.
Tony Kynaston: So that’s that one. And yeah, that’s, I think that’s all I’ve got on the earnings income. Round couple of things. When I was going through doing my download this week, it just, um, did pay attention to if, if people are using their own spreadsheets or the one that I issued, um, well probably anyone, I think you might update these in yours, but, uh, to reiterate, the cash rate is now 3.6% [00:41:00] and I use the RBAs website for the average mortgage rate, which is 5.73% now.
So just make sure you’re up to date those two changes, which have happened in the last couple of weeks.
Cameron: I updated mine last night. Funny you should mention that. Try and do it at the beginning of the month, but I was a bit late. I got a couple of things I just wanted to mention that car Karun Energy’s not been having a good run. It’s uh, getting close to a, uh, rule one cell for me, but I just wanted to make everyone aware if they are looking at car, if you hold it, that it is X div when X diviv about a week ago.
So just keep an eye on that. But the share prices, uh, dropped quite a bit, uh, to reflect that in the last week or so. Drop from a buck 90 down to dollar 62 and oil. Oil is a Josephine as well, which isn’t [00:42:00] helping, but just keep an eye on that. It’s a zero franked dividend of 2.40 cents too, so it’s not gonna, um, not gonna change your sell prices a great deal.
It’s, I bought it back in June around a dollar 97, 1 parcel, and $2 seven for another parcel. Now it’s a dollar 65, so it’s dropped quite a bit. The, uh, three point cell line’s a dollar 43, though it’s got a while before it hits that, but my real one’s getting close. I also wanted to mention Paul said that cash converters CFO resigned after just two years in the job to quote unquote, pursue other professional opportunities.
I went and had a look at the announcement and there wasn’t much in the announcement either. Jaunty Jaunty Gibbs has tended his resignation to pursue new professional opportunities. [00:43:00] Uh, that’s it pretty much. Um, no. Best of luck. Oh, no, sorry. Managing director. We extend our sincere thanks to Jaunty for his dedication, but nothing about, uh, serving out a period, a term, just the, the company’s commenced a formal executive recruitment process.
It doesn’t say when he is leaving. Uh, red flag, do you think Tony?
Tony Kynaston: Look, I couldn’t find much information on this one. It was a hard one because my gut says he’s been poached, he’s potentially a good CFO who’s now taking up a role for another company. So, um, I looked at the share price, which has been doing okay. So there’s no sort of immediate need to act, I don’t think.
But, um, I’d be monitoring this one to see where he pops up next. Um, and if it’s with a bigger company, then I’d, I’d say he’s just been headhunted.
Cameron: It is down 10%.
Tony Kynaston: he, doesn’t, if he doesn’t pop up anywhere, then it’s probably a red flag, I would think
Cameron: [00:44:00] Right? So what do we do for CCV? Just
Tony Kynaston: we just
Cameron: and see.
Tony Kynaston: and wait and see. Yeah. It’s a, it’s a messy one.
Cameron: It is on the buy list. Quite high on the buy list too. This week it’s in the top 10.
Tony Kynaston: Yep. So I would hold off buying it. Um, I mean,
Cameron: You would.
Tony Kynaston: 10% it’s a Josephine. But, um, thought. But, um, yeah, I would, until there’s some clarity, I’d like to know more about where he is going to, what his reason for leaving was, which will hopefully come out. It’s always hard on small companies.
It’s usually easier for a bigger company ’cause, um, if he’s being poached by another ASX company, we should a, uh, announcement on that well.
Cameron: It is not a Josephine. In fact, the bread later looks stunning. It’s like going vertical. Um, since April, the share price previous month close [00:45:00] was 34 cents. Currently at 35 cents, but it was as high as 38 cents last week, which is why I said it’s down 10%. But, um, yeah. Anyway, I’ll make a note in my buy list for next week to, uh, put a flag on it.
Tony Kynaston: Yeah. Look, I’m, I’m sorry I can’t be more definitive because I, all my searching didn’t come up with any more information than just that release from cash converter saying he’s leaving and
Cameron: Mm.
Tony Kynaston: do a search to hire someone to replace him,
Cameron: that unusual in your experience? Yeah, but still, you would say normally a senior executive C‑suite position like that, if you get headhunted and poached, you’re gonna have a serve out period, right? You’re gonna
Tony Kynaston: Yeah.
Cameron: the next 90 days, 30 days, whatever it is, to just not make any mention in the release [00:46:00] about when he is effectively leaving the building is weird.
Tony Kynaston: Mm. is
Cameron: Okay.
Tony Kynaston: again, welcome to corporate governance land in small cap ASX world. Yeah, I mean, for a start, the real news came out, and I don’t know again, with the, if, if the share price is down 10%, I would’ve thought at least the ASX should be writing to them saying, can you give us more information? Um, I suspect it’s not covered by many analysts, but they’d be asking questions too.
So it’s a, a, it’s a hard one to understand what’s going on, but it, like, it’s, it’s borderline for me.
Cameron: Yeah. All right. I’ve added it to my red flag notes for next week,
Tony Kynaston: I know the next question will be, when do we take it off? Um, and I, I don’t have a definitive answer for that either.
Cameron: and they’re one of our favorite stocks too. CCV. We love the CCV, you know, [00:47:00] good little business.
Tony Kynaston: Should be doing well given, um, cost of living issues. It’s that kind of business, really.
Cameron: Yeah. I had to take Fox in there recently and pawn him for a while just so I could pay the rent. wouldn’t take him. They were like, no, he’s defective. Send him back. He, he spent five minutes in there trash the joint. No, get him outta here. Uh, okay.
Tony Kynaston: Pokemon card in.
Cameron: Yeah. Yeah. Sold that. That’s right. He had another conversation he was saying to me, I took him down the park there that he goes, you know, um, instead of, uh, you know, we have the Bank of Daddy thing, that he has money and instead of investing in the bank of Daddy, I think I’m gonna invest in Pokemon cards.
I said, you can’t use those words in the same sentence. I’m sorry. They, you can’t. He goes, no, no, no. Some people I go, no, no, no. And I, I pulled out GPT and I said, Fox thinks it’s in Pokemon cards are actually an investment. What do you think? He goes, it was like, [00:48:00] listen, you know, once in a blue moon, somebody is able to buy something and sell it at a profit, but 99% of the time, that doesn’t work out.
It’s really just a hobby. Feel free collecting Pokemon cards, but don’t think of it as an investment. And he, he’s like, ah, I want his chat. GP Tino. Um, do you want me to do the questions? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I, I say talk to your brothers like your brothers wasted a fortune on Pokemon cards when they were your age too.
And now both of them will tell you it was absolutely stupid and a big waste of money. But, uh, okay. Couple of questions, Paul, again, what about Fin Bar, apartment Builder or Noble Oak Life Insurance for a pulled pork this week? Finbar has been in and out for a few months, and Nobel Oak is new, both interesting and pretty different companies.
I reckon FRI and NOL are those two stocks. you picked one of those for today? Do.
Tony Kynaston: Fin, I, picked Finbar based on Paul’s request, and I, it’s [00:49:00] been on my mind to do it for a while. It’s, it’s not a large a DT stock, so I try, I try and do bigger ones, but, um, it’s been very high on the buy list for a while now. And I also thought I’d put some gaps between Fleetwood, which is another, um, builder on the buy list, which I did think back in June.
So it’s probably
Cameron: Hmm.
Tony Kynaston: now to do another builder. Fin Barr’s a builder of apartments in Perth.
Cameron: And then number one on our buy list this week too, quality score, a hundred percent QAV score 0.83. Average daily trade, 81,000. So they’re small, but yeah, they’re right up there.
Tony Kynaston: I
Cameron: Um,
Tony Kynaston: And pepper money was number one. Finbar was number two. Anyway,
Cameron: around, but I did mine on Friday, so, or Saturday.
Tony Kynaston: Have
Cameron: Mm-hmm. It’s $2 25. Is that good?
Tony Kynaston: Yeah, well have a look at the graph. It’s like asy, tical almost. It’s, [00:50:00] it’s going
Cameron: I bought them in May for the dummy portfolio and the light portfolio at the beginning of May at a dollar 64. So they’re up 34% since May. That is very good. Yeah.
Tony Kynaston: isn’t it? Very
Cameron: Good.
Tony Kynaston: graph.
Cameron: Good job. Pepper money.
Tony Kynaston: Yeah.
Cameron: well, the only. The only other question we have this week is from Jordan. Hi Cam. Hi Jordan. I was looking at the annual report for a IS this weekend.
So was I funnily that, and notice that in the auditor’s report it included a key audit matter basis of preparation of financial report going concern. Nowhere in the audit report does it say there is a material uncertainty. So I think the audit was okay, but I haven’t ever seen this included in the audit reports key audit matter section.
So I was wondering if it was a close call. Can you ask Tony what he thinks of it? A IS was one of the ones I was using as I was writing my code only [00:51:00] because it’s an A, it was one of the first ones on my list that was an A that I could work with. Um, I haven’t got it open in front of me though, but I can pull up its annual report off my hard drive.
What do you think? Did you have a look at this one, Tony?
Tony Kynaston: I
Cameron: Well, no, I’ll pull the report up.
Tony Kynaston: wrong with it myself, so I’m not sure whether I think it has had a qualified audit in the past. I’m not sure whether, is it Paul who’s looking at the prior annual report, but there’s one that’s been released in the last few weeks or last few days, which looks clean.
Cameron: Yeah, it was on our previous one back from the last time Alex or I looked at it. Um, this one does look yeah, clean. They talk about some key audit matters, but they’re not flagging anything as being a problem. What did I say In my buy list? That’s what I wanna know.
Tony Kynaston: [00:52:00] Think you took it off. Um, the list for qualified audits in the buy list this week.
Cameron: QAV Audit scan. A IS is
Tony Kynaston: I have
Cameron: not.
Tony Kynaston: the on, um, based on it not having a qualified audit anymore,
Cameron: Oh, okay. Well, there you go. Um, a IS unmodified. Yes, unmodified. I’ve got it down as
Tony Kynaston: Right.
Cameron: on confidence rating of 0.75. According to my script, it’s con that’s its confidence in its, uh, uh, whatever. Also, the other good thing about my script, I dunno if you looked at my little sheet, but it actually, it lists the name.
It, it, it lists the name of the auditor, what page of the report the auditor is on, and then it grabs the text and puts the, the text that mentions the audit status and puts that in the spreadsheet. Uh, just in [00:53:00] case you know, you wanna have a quick read of it without opening the report.
Tony Kynaston: Not well done.
Cameron: Sexy, very sexy.
Tony Kynaston: Yeah.
Cameron: Anyway, so yes. A IS
Tony Kynaston: auditing is, ordering is sexy again.
Cameron: yeah, I’m making auditing sexy again. Uh, but yes, so, uh, we think it’s okay now, Jordan. And that’s, see that was one of the reasons I had to write the script is because this new list of reports, I mean the, all the, you know, we, we just got through reporting season, so a lot of the reports were outdated and I didn’t want to have to go through and check all 200 of them.
So, um, I had another crack at it. So anyway, a IS got a clean bill of health. Good, good spotting Jordan. And by the way, if anyone has, uh, discovers any companies where my audit is wrong, please let me know. I did go and spot checked. A dozen of them after I did the, the final version of the script. It all seemed to be good.
But that’s not to say it. Perfect. So there will, [00:54:00] I, I, I will no doubt have to tweak some of the, um, terminology, uh, searching aspects of it from time to time. So, but if you find anything that’s awry, let me know.
Tony Kynaston: Yeah, and I, I mean, I checked this one as well. When the question came up. I looked at the annual report myself. So it seems fine to me.
Cameron: Yeah.
Tony Kynaston: In fact, I think even in the, I haven’t got it in front of me. I think it even says in the very start of the report, auditors have said that’s a, well, they’ve reviewed the audit, they’ve reviewed the numbers, and it’s an unqualified or something like that.
Cameron: Oh, okay. Cool. Alright, Tony, do you wanna talk? Fin bar, do you wanna
Tony Kynaston: Yeah.
Cameron: Fin Barris?
Tony Kynaston: Okay.
Cameron: Hmm.
Tony Kynaston: you. Um, interesting company. Uh. It’s as I said, well, I have it number two. You have it Number one on the buy list, a DT of 86,000. Um, so it’s, yeah, it probably is time to do Finbar. it’s a [00:55:00] property development company and they lie in WA and almost exclusively in Perth the metropolitan area.
They did do, one development of an apartment building in Kartha, as I could see. But otherwise, it’s always Perth. Uh, they say on their website, they are the leading apartment developer in WA, dedicating to developing better lifestyles. With over 79 Landmark wa developments delivered to date, Finbar continues to define the skyline in one of the most livable cities in the world. apartments built over the last 30 years, project delivery success rate, and 30 consecutive years of profit. They go on to say that, uh, they have a stable finbar team with average staff tenure of nine plus years and 15 plus years for the executive team supporting consistency in project delivery, client relationships, and corporate strategy. [00:56:00] They certainly have been consistent. I’ll say that when you we go through it. The company’s core business lies in development of medium to high density residential apartments ancillary commercial property, uh, through maintaining deep stakeholder engagement, including with Fin Bar’s, relationship Builder Hanson Proprietary Limited.
And a core group of consultants, contractors, and suppliers. Finbar has created the key competitive advantage in an operational environment that continues to see wider construction capacity constraints, acting as a barrier to new entrants and substitute competitor activity. And I, I’d, uh, wanna highlight this can’t be overemphasized enough that they’ve contained themselves pretty much to Perth. you can see why when you look at the stats. So in 23, 24, which were the most recent stats I found about immigration at a city level. Perth population increased by 81,360,000 odd. Of those [00:57:00] were from overseas migration, so that the stats did say that Perth had the biggest increase, I guess, per capita from uh, immigration in the avenue, Australian Capital city.
So there’s certainly a lot of tailwinds for apartments being needed in Perth. This company began in 1995 when it listed on the ASX as a prop, as a company called Development Company, and it was operated out of a two bedroom apartment they. Convinced commenced their first development as a property development company, uh, in on the Point, which was their first apartment building located in South Perth. Uh, they’ve continuously grown from there along the way. They did branch out of Perth Kartha in 2010, but that’s the only deviation I could see. They’ve rode the resource, uh, boom in Perth, including building Perth’s tallest apartment building in 2017. [00:58:00] at that stage, um, it was called Concerto. And then again in 2024 Perth largest, tallest apartment building called Civic Heart. Uh, they, they’ve had many milestones over the years. They completed their first a hundred apartments 2005, 200 apartments in 2009, 3020 12, 5,020 17, 6,020 19 and 7,000 in 2024. And have won many industry awards along the way for building practices and excellence in the building industry. Their results, um, were pretty good, and that has kicked the share price up, uh, since uh, the results were released. And, uh, they announced that underlying NPA was up 16%, revenue was up 46%, and they reduced debt from, uh, ooh. They [00:59:00] reduced debt by $360 million. Um. Down to $56 million. Uh, they, they’ve announced a five year development pipeline in excess of $1 billion in estimated end value. And they have a pros. They’ve announced a positive outlook supported through chronic housing under supply in Perth, improving interest rate environment and continued elevator levels of Perth migration. A couple of other things that were of note in the results announcements. The average daily sales, uh, which was uh, for the period January to mid-August 2025 0.99 units per day, was 27% higher than 2024. Um, and since that time, so since, uh, the 1st of June, sales have accelerated to just under two units per day, which is twice more than twice the average of uh, uh, the last 12 months. [01:00:00] Uh. And not only have they, are they selling twice as many per day, but they are receiving a higher average price per unit sold. Um, so the average for year to date is $970,000, is 28% up on the five year average or selling apartments in Perth. Um, latest, uh, project, riverbank Residences helped Finbar achieve a 30 year record sales month in August with 150 lots sold across the group’s portfolio. so a couple of, a lot of, um, records are being smashed by the company. Uh, and the last one was, that was, it’s the first time in 10 years that Finbar has sold out an entire Perth apartment project off the plans, in other words, um, before construction began. So they, they’re really doing well. Um. Executing properly [01:01:00] and to have, um, good relationships for the building side of things.
They, they are delivering on time when, as we know from prior there are a lot of building companies going into administration in Australia, but not this one. Uh, we, if I go through the QAV numbers, Stock Doctor has the most recent results loaded, so we can use those. The stock price I’m using is just under 79 cents, 78.80 cents. IV one is 27 cents and no IV two ’cause there’s no consensus forecast that tangible assets for this company and net equity per share are both 92 cents the current share price is just under 79. So we can buy this for less than book value, is good. Uh, the yield is 2.54%. Um, so we can’t score it for the yield, but it is paying a yield, paying a dividend, sorry.
Uh, Stock Doctor financial health is strong and St. Steady, which is good. Wikipedia have a quality ranking of [01:02:00] 87, which is good, and an F score of six out of nine, which is also good. they have a value ranking of 91, but overall 74, I think that’s due to their momentum ranking, which they’ve ranked down. but certainly on a value ranking and a quality ranking, the score is good. In stock. Edia Pr/OpCaf is only 1.19 times, so you know, you’re able to this and get your money back in a little over a year from cashflow, which is really good. We don’t have growth forecast, so I can’t score it for growth over PE hold 56% of stock, so. Basically there are two shareholder groupings. A company called Hub Holdings, which is a Singapore listed investment company. They hold, uh, quite a bit of stock f uh, no, they hold 25.6% of the stock. And Mr. Terrence [01:03:00] pay PEH, he’s the chief Executive officer of, uh, Chuan Hu Holdings, and he’s on the board and he’s been there for a long time, since 2018. Uh, but the founder, John, one of the founders, John Chan, is the chair still. He holds 12%, um, joined the board back in 2010, his son, Ron Chan, is now the CEO and holds 9%. So they have, um, 19%, oh, sorry, 21% between them. Uh, the stock is a recent three point trend lined upturn, so we can score it for that. have consistently increasing equity, which is not really a surprise given that property developers tend to be fairly lumpy in their, uh, in their cash flow. Um, so overall, I’m giving this a quality score of 11 out of 13 or 85% and a QAV score of 0.71. So very high up on the buy list. The, I think the tailwinds for this company are quite strong, and I did [01:04:00] notice that, um, there was Mabb buying by management and the board this year, which is a good sign. but certainly the tailwinds for the company are that are the strong underlying Perth migration, um, chronic housing under supply. And to give you an example of that, R‑E-I-W‑A listing, so that’s the Real Estate Institute of uh, over 50% lower now than they were over the last five year average. So not many apartments being listed. interest rates are going down, which is, uh, loosening, well lowering mortgage rates and loosening people’s ability to buy things like apartments. Um, the, there’s a couple of government. Uh, policies, helping people buy apartment buildings, off the plan, stamp duty concessions, first home buyer support. Um, there’s a thing called the infrastructure development fund, which is helping, there’s a thing called Key Start, which I think might be a WA Pro project, project [01:05:00] or program. but, but certainly a lot of people are being helped to get into the apartment market, which is supporting, um, sales for this company. guess on the risk side, a property developer, so if it does lose some of the relationships they have, then they, there’s certainly a lot of, um, tightness in the labor market for construction in the property sector that may affect them. Property developers have risks to, if interest rates turn up. Um, certainly seen lots of insolvencies across the eastern seaboard for developers. have lumpy development financials, so it hasn’t always been. the share price hasn’t always been going up in the straight line. And if Perth comes off the boil for whatever reason, a downturn in the, in, uh, the mining company, uh, mining, uh, resource sector, or for whatever other reason, um, the apartment market may face a downturn over there and then will have to [01:06:00] start looking elsewhere to build apartments, which is a risk I think, um, if that ever happens.
But to date, it’s, they’re doing well.
Cameron: I’ve got to unmute my mic. We’ll add the fan on. Thank you Tony Finbar.
Tony Kynaston: And
Cameron: Alright. Yeah, good one Paul. Alright, after hours. Tony, what have you got?
Tony Kynaston: Yeah.
a few things. Um. I guess the most topical one would be Alien Earth. I don’t know if you’ve caught up on that one at all.
Cameron: What you’re gonna tell people about your skin cancer operation and how they should, uh, go get any, you know, spots checked.
Tony Kynaston: I can, I had skin cancer on my face and my arm cut out last Friday and it was a bit more than I thought. So, uh, yeah, I’ve, I dunno if it’s because I’ve moved back from Canada when I wasn’t having any skin cancers, but in the last couple of years I’ve had quite a few cut out and, uh, it seems like the process is getting, um, [01:07:00] deeper into my skin. Um, I don’t want to go into the gory details of it, but I’ve got a few stitches in my face and my arm because of last, uh, Friday’s surgery. Um, um, it’s, it’s fine. I’m not gonna bow no problems. It’s local anesthetics and all that, but, uh, I can’t exercise this week. I’ll get the stitches out on Friday. Um. So it was a bit more of an impediment than it had been in the past, when generally in the past it was either a burn off with the liquid nitrogen or you know, do a fairly tight almost keyhole type incision and get the, the, uh, offending B, c, C or whatever out. Um, but no, they’ve gone in deep this time. So, um, yeah, hasn’t been all that fun. and I’m a little bit conscious of this big scar on my face at the moment, but it, he’s fine
Cameron: No, you don’t want it to heal fine. You want it to have a big manly scar and you come up with a good story for it then too. Attacked by a shark. Rhino,
Tony Kynaston: said. He, he’s
Cameron: yeah.
Tony Kynaston: the golf [01:08:00] course.
Cameron: Oh no. I said a good story. Fighting ruddy is not a good story, you know?
Tony Kynaston: Well being beaten up by Roddy’s, another good story. It’s like no one would believe that, would
Cameron: No, exactly. No one’s gonna believe that. Look at ruddy, it’d fall down. Give him a harsh look. Um, okay. Alien Earth. Yeah, I, um, I haven’t waded into those waters yet because the whole alien franchise is just not a good place. But it’s a bit like terminated films. Best days are well and truly behind them.
Tony Kynaston: Well, I think they’re back. I, I think, um,
Cameron: Really. Oh.
Tony Kynaston: alien Earth. I think the good part about Alien Earth is it doesn’t really necessarily focus on the alien. I mean, it’s part of it, but it’s a lot more about what the earth looks like, uh, in the future. When the, um, uh, one of the comp, so the comp, the Earth is run by five companies and they compete against each other. a bit of an allegory for how things sit with the Mag seven at the moment. and, uh, one of the companies. [01:09:00] Brings the alien embryo back to earth and, uh, one of the crew members on the ship is paid for by one of the competing companies to try and sabotage that. And they do, they’ve meant to land the spaceship in the whatever city, company B, the Wayland Corporation or Teal?
Uh, no, Wayland, I think it is since, because they, yeah. Wayland.
Cameron: Terrell is Blade Runner.
Tony Kynaston: running. Yeah. So Whale in New Tony, I’ve forgotten all the names. There’s five different company names in this. the ship, uh, crash lands into an apartment building. and of course the embryos escape. It’s the, the interesting thing is it’s not just about the Audi and creature.
There are other creatures brought back. So it’s, um, there’s a few other to watch out for, but that’s probably only about 20% of the series. The rest of it’s about synthetic humans and, um, cyborgs and, uh, the control, the companies and what that all means and how they compete. [01:10:00] So it’s, I found it fascinating from that point of view. Um,
Cameron: does it fit in the, where does it fit in the timeline?
Tony Kynaston: I’ve got no idea. Or it’s, it’s, um, it would be, yeah, dunno.
Cameron: Hmm. Obviously post the 79 film. Hmm.
Tony Kynaston: Yeah. And probably post aliens too as well. ’cause uh, that, that, you know, was also about the corporation trying to bring a bio weapon back to Earth.
Cameron: Yeah.
Tony Kynaston: since then,
Cameron: Yeah. Alright. It’s on, uh, what Disney Max?
Tony Kynaston: Disney or Apple, I’m not sure.
Cameron: Um, I think it’s on one of the ones I’ve got. I don’t have apples, so it must have been one of the other ones.
Tony Kynaston: Yeah. Anyway. That’s good. Um,
Cameron: I,
Tony Kynaston: been going through SBS still loving all the old movies they’ve now got to. Um, and, uh, have you seen Laou [01:11:00] Dele, Jean ADEs film?
Cameron: no, but I was watching his, um, uh, what’s his big one? Uh, the, the, the, the breathless. Oh, that’s what, it’s what’s, I’ve never heard that other name for it. Oh, really? That’s breathless. Yeah. I’m, I was watching it. I’ve, I haven’t seen it since the, you know, the early nineties when I was in my tw early twenties and got into, you know, started getting into classic French film.
Yeah, no, I was watching it the other night. I didn’t finish it, but I’m like halfway, two thirds of the way through it. Um, loving it. Absolutely loving it.
Tony Kynaston: Just how revolutionary it is. I mean, it’s a, the
Cameron: Yeah.
Tony Kynaston: shot. Um, seeing a young Jean Paul Delmondo is fantastic. ’cause most of my memories of him is a, like 20 years later
Cameron: Yeah,
Tony Kynaston: of French cinema in the seventies. Yeah.
Cameron: just the thing that I remembered, the only thing really I remembered of it from when I first saw it in my early twenties was just that staccato [01:12:00] editing, the really choppy editing of bam bam. And it’s moving really quickly and the, the, the scenes are all over the place. It’s really frenetic, fast-paced editing, which, um, didn’t seem as crazy this time watching it as I remember feeling about it in my early twenties, but still obviously there.
And, uh, very fresh.
Tony Kynaston: Yeah. And I remember going back and watching it when the remake with Richard Gere and p Adoa came out us which was good.
Cameron: I never saw that.
Tony Kynaston: which I, I think I read the review. I, I saw and loved Badlands,
Cameron: Martin Sheen,
Tony Kynaston: early ones. Yep. And Sissy’s
Cameron: sissy SpaceX. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Tony Kynaston: after I saw that, a review of that referred me to Boutta Sole saying sort of theme of, you know, young man um, going off the rails, committing a crime, going on the run. And so I went and watched Breathless back then and I’m really enjoying it this time [01:13:00] around. I don’t remember much of it the first scene, but it must have been so shocking in 59 or out to see this kind of, you know, amoral man killing a cop, going on the run with a car, hot wiring a car, coming back to Paris to get his girlfriend, finding her with someone else, you know, just this kinda wild ride stealing money from other girls
Cameron: Yeah.
Tony Kynaston: they, it must’ve been so shocking to Cinemagoers, who would’ve been used to singing in the rain and sound of music and all that kind of
Cameron: They’d had Jimmy Cagney and the original Scarface film and Bogart films. I mean, criminals on screen now. Capone and those sorts of things weren’t new, but I, the, I think the, the di Yeah, it’s cool. It’s kind of like a Tarantino esque, which is why Tarantino names his production company, A band apart after another one of his films.
Um, Tarantino’s a big fan, right? But so yeah, they’re [01:14:00] cool. He’s the cool criminal. Looks cool. Acts cool. Yeah. The whole thing. Yeah,
Tony Kynaston: chain smoking unfiltered cigarettes.
Cameron: yeah. Good looking. Yeah, good looking. Whereas wears a suit, like a, a model and just, uh, he is like a young, I don’t know, Clooney, Brad Pitt sort of something waning about pretty girls.
Just, yeah. Oh good. Yeah. Yeah, I stumbled across that. So I also, I’m halfway through watching Megalopolis.
Tony Kynaston: Oh, really? What is that available?
Cameron: Um, well it’s on Moy, but I don’t have Moy and so Hunter said, gave me like an illegal streaming site, so that’s what that where he watches stuff that’s not available on the other streaming sites.
Some about 45 minutes into the three and a half hours or whatever that is. You watched it, right? I think you saw it. Oh, you haven’t seen it? I know Alex saw it and didn’t mind [01:15:00] it. She said she laughed.
Tony Kynaston: Yeah.
Cameron: Um, I am, I’m enjoying it, but it’s definitely weird. But, but because it’s basically a somewhat retelling of 60 BCE in Rome.
You know, the main characters, uh, Jean Carlo Esposito plays Cicero. Adam Driver plays Caesar Catalina, which is a combination of Caesar and Lina. Um, the Arian conspiracy for those people that know their Roman history. Um, so there’s, you know, it’s a bit of telling of this power struggle in Rome, although it’s very, very loose reference to that.
It’s set in like the New Rome of Manhattan. And, um, John Voit, uh, Aubrey Plaza, um, who’s the young guy who was, [01:16:00] um, in the, uh, Indiana Jones film as Indie’s son. Can’t remember his name.
Tony Kynaston: Oh, um, yeah, I’ve forgotten two. Is it Tom Hold? Was that, I’m not sure.
Cameron: No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. It’s, uh, she Lebo.
Tony Kynaston: Oh, Going
Cameron: Fishburn is in it. Larry Fishburn sort of does the narration of it too. Jason Schwartzman huge cast. Um, and yeah, I mean, I’m enjoying the actors and like the characters are kind of crazy, but, uh, it’s, but there’s also, there’s this like, really, I’m assuming deliberately bad blue screens and green screens in it.
Like it’s got a very fake, uh, feel to the blue screens and the backdrops are all a little bit, um. Thirties art decoy style kind of thing to it. [01:17:00] Arty, you know, it’s coppler trying to be arty, telling a political futuristicy drama kind of thing. Anyway, so I’m about nearly an hour into a third of the way through it and not hating it, but I can see why people would struggle with it ’cause it’s over the top and weird.
Tony Kynaston: Yeah.
Okay. I’ve seen a couple of clips on, on Facebook reels, and I’m not a fan of Adam Driver, and he looks like he’s got a funny Roman haircut in it, and yeah, I’m not sure I’ll watch it.
Cameron: Adam driver’s just doing Adam driver, like he’s broody,
Tony Kynaston: Yeah,
Cameron: the way through it so far. Um,
Tony Kynaston: I’m
Cameron: yeah. Wow. Brooding you say wouldn’t. Yeah. Okay. Anyway, that’s all I’ve got. I’ve just been obs.
Tony Kynaston: which is a bad trait for an actor
Cameron: Okay. Um, apart from that, I’ve just been obsessed with Shostakovich’s seventh Symphony again this week, just
Tony Kynaston: I listened
Cameron: [01:18:00] in
Tony Kynaston: I, I thought it was okay. uh, didn’t, no, I thought it was good, but, um, it one listen. I thought, okay. That’s all right. I was surprised ’cause my, I think prior listening to Shastakovich was fairly atonal and this was very, almost, commercial. I thought it was very poppy. Um, had a very strong melody,
Cameron: Yeah, well look, a lot of his early stuff when he was in his early twenties, um, was not atonal, but very experimental. His symphonies are less so, and his string quartets and his piano concertos a lot of, I mean, experimental, but following the traditional structure of a Beethoven or a, or a Marla or something like that, but also takes it in a different direction like he was trying to do stuff with it.
But yeah, like the opening motif for the first movement of the seventh, [01:19:00] like.
Tony Kynaston: It’s like jazz hands shall we? Sounded very Broadway to me,
Cameron: Broadway. Wow. Okay. But the, like, the history of that, as I told you last week, like it was a big deal at the time because it was happening during the attack on that, and it was hugely popular around the west until the war was over. And then it basically got forgotten because we were in the Cold War and you weren’t allowed to listen to Kovich who was a Soviet composer, still living in Leningrad and supposedly being a good communist.
Uh, even though after he died, everyone learned that he really did it through gridded teeth and that he hated the communists and he hated the Communist Party in Stalin and Khrushchev. And then all of a sudden it was acceptable in the West. But there is some great footage on YouTube of Lenny [01:20:00] Bernstein going to Moscow in 1959 as part of a cultural exchange program where he.
Plays the first movement of the seventh. And, uh, Shastakovich is in the audience, and Lenny thanks him. And then Shastakovich looks really uncomfortable. He’s like sitting halfway back in the audience and he, somebody next to him is prodding him and he gets up and he sort of does a wave and then he sits back down and they’re still applauding.
The audience is applauding and eventually he’s sort of forced to get up and very, ’cause he is, he was very introverted, very shy. He walks up to the front and he shakes Bernstein’s hand and shakes the first violin, the sand, and then gets back to his seat. But he is probably thinking, oh God, now they’re gonna, now they’re gonna throw me in a gulag now for being too friendly with this, uh, gay western, you know, conductor.
Um, but yeah, like he, he was bernstein admired him when it was very unpopular to
Tony Kynaston: Mm-hmm.
Cameron: [01:21:00] acknowledge shush kovich in the west, uh, in those years of the Cold War. But Poppy, there you go.
Tony Kynaston: it was good.
Cameron: Listen to it a hundred more times. And then tell me what you think, Tony. You have to stick. No, it’ll help your healing process.
Tony Kynaston: My sp speaking avant-garde composers. Have you heard, uh, Philip Glass’s low, his
Cameron: Oh, of course. Yeah, yeah, of course. Yeah, yeah.
Tony Kynaston: week, which was fantastic. Love it.
Cameron: Well, somebody, did I tell you about my friend who did the Brian Eno course? The Brian Eno Masterclass? Uh, one of Fox’s friend’s parents. Um. Did it’s, it did like this Brian Eno masterclass course a few months ago. Like you get to spend, I don’t know, like an hour or a couple of hours on a Sunday for over a period of time with Eno, like a live chat room thing.
Um, where he teaches you how to, how he does art, [01:22:00] how he thinks about music, how he composes and goes through the, um, oblique strategies, cards and his whole process. So this guy, and you get recordings of it all. So he, he just downloaded the whole thing into a directory for me and he goes, here you go. He is got like 10 hours of masterclass with Brian Eno, which I haven’t even cracked open yet.
I haven’t even downloaded yet. ’cause you know, I was too busy coding audit scans and buyback scans. But, um, uh, I would love to think that I would have the time at some point to get into that. ’cause I do love the stuff that Eno’s, I just love Eno’s. You know, artistic contribution to rock music in the last 50 years, if nothing else, right?
Tony Kynaston: Yeah. Roxy Music and U2 and Bowie. Yeah.
Cameron: Yeah, yeah,
Tony Kynaston: Bring on the Warm Jets. Fantastic album.
Cameron: yeah. Not to mention everyone else, I think like, yeah, I can, the list of artists that he [01:23:00] contributed to is, is long, but I know I’m probably not gonna have time to do it ’cause I don’t have time to do shit. Um,
Tony Kynaston: Kung fu.
Cameron: well that’s, that goes without saying
Tony Kynaston: Class and crack open.
Cameron: He knows not of what he speaks. My Lord, forgive him. Don’t make me show you my abs again, Coniston. I’ll show you why I do kung fu.
Tony Kynaston: it’s the last thing from my mind to make you show me your
Cameron: Oh, come on. I’ve had to look at your scar. You look at my abs. That’s how we, that’s the trade off. Alright, well I wanna go talk about methanol, which is the, uh, pulled pork for the US show that we have to go do. So let’s go talk about methanol. Thank you, Tony. Have a good week. Thanks everybody for the questions and the suggestions.
Have a good one.
Bernard: Q A V is a checklist-based system of value investing developed by Tony Khighneston over 25 years. To learn more [01:24:00] about how it works and how you can learn the system, visit our website, Q A V Podcast dot com dot A U.
This podcast is an information provider and in giving you product information we are not making any suggestion or recommendation about a particular product. The information has been prepared without taking into account your individual investment objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Before you decide whether or not to acquire a particular financial product you should assess whether it is appropriate for you in the light of your own personal circumstances, having regard to your own objectives, financial situation and needs. You may wish to obtain financial advice from a suitably qualified adviser before making any decision to acquire a financial product. Please note that all information about performance returns is historical. Past performance should not be relied upon as an indicator of future performance; unit prices and the [01:25:00] value of your investment may fall as well as rise. The results are general advice only and not personal product advice.
Transparency is important to us. We will always be very open and honest about the stocks we own. We will also always give our audience advance notice when we intend to buy or sell a stock that we are going to talk about on the podcast. This is so we can never be accused of pumping a stock to our own advantage. If we talk about a stock we currently own, we will make it known that we own it.
This email is authorised by Anthony Khighneston Authorised Representative Number zero zero 1 2 9 2 7 1 8 of M F & Co. Asset Management Proprietary Limited (A F S L five 2 zero 4 4 2). No part of this content may be reproduced in any form without the prior consent of Spacecraft Publishing.
Quote of the day:
“The code we now write no longer dictates the choices and decisions our [01:26:00] machines make; the data we feed them does.” “Scary Smart”, Mo Gawdat

0 Comments