QAV 723 — The Vulcan Fudge

QAV 723 Club

[00:00:00] Tony: 3, 2, 1.

[00:00:06] Cameron: Wel­come back to episode 723 of QAV, K to the T. How you doing?

[00:00:15] Tony: Yeah,

[00:00:15] Tony: good,

[00:00:15] Tony: thank

[00:00:16] Cameron: How do you like my hat?

[00:00:17] Tony: A to the T. Joe’s Real Bar­be­cue.

[00:00:20] Tony: Okay.

[00:00:20] Cameron: Chris­sy, what she brought me back from

[00:00:23] Tony: Ah.

[00:00:24] Cameron: We actu­al­ly went there and ate there last time we were there a cou­ple of years ago. Great bar­be­cue joint in, I think in Gilbert

[00:00:31] Cameron: in Phoenix. Um, yeah, like one of these great sort of Amer­i­can bar­be­cue places. That’s like

[00:00:38] Tony: did you have the

[00:00:39] Tony: ribs?

[00:00:39] Cameron: Uh, I can’t remem­ber what I had, but I know it was great.

[00:00:42] Cameron: I think I did have ribs actu­al­ly, but it was just great. Oh, we had a lot, just a, just a plate full of bar­be­cued meat. It was fan­tas­tic. So any­way.

[00:00:50] Tony: yeah good. And it’s a truck­ers cap too, not a golf­ing cap or a

[00:00:54] Cameron: Yeah, truck is cat, cause That’s how we roll. Smells like free­dom, Tony. Smells like free­dom.

[00:01:05] Tony: Oh, Don­ald Trump does­n’t smell like free­dom at the moment.

[00:01:07] Cameron: He’s still free. He’s still free

[00:01:10] Cameron: I was read­ing up on the Hunter Biden law­suit that’s hap­pen­ing at the moment. Would­n’t it be great if they shared a

[00:01:16] Tony: Which one? Yeah!

[00:01:18] Cameron: Oh, the, uh, the guns one I think is going on, not the tax one, the guns one. Yeah, I just think the two of them shar­ing a cell, that, now there’s a sit­com wait­ing to hap­pen, right?

[00:01:29] Tony: Yeah. So, uh, Tay­lor should pitch that to Warn­er

[00:01:33] Cameron: Yeah, you should. Yeah, yeah, my son Tay­lor. How’s your week been, TK? You’re back in sun­ny Syd­ney.

[00:01:41] Tony: Back in sun­ny Syd­ney. Yeah, it’s been a good week actu­al­ly, trav­el­ing down the East Coast. I stayed in Coffs Har­bour, stayed in Taree, uh, played a lot of golf and, um, went to Magen­ta Shores, which is the entrance, uh, on the last day and played golf there. It’s been good. It’s been a nice, nice relax­ing break away from Syd­ney, away from a house not sell­ing and all of those dis­trac­tions.

[00:02:06] Cameron: Uh, yeah. I was, I was, I’ve been watch­ing Curb Your Enthu­si­asm and I was, uh, again, old episodes and I saw an episode, like, from the very first sea­son, like 20 years ago, and some­body was say­ing that they were try­ing to buy Lar­ry’s old house and they said, how long has it been on the mar­ket? And he said, oh, about a year.

[00:02:25] Cameron: And I was like, well, there you go. It’s like, you’re liv­ing in LA. It’s like,

[00:02:30] Tony: Yeah,

[00:02:31] Cameron: at least

[00:02:32] Tony: yeah, it could be, could be, we’ll see. Is

[00:02:36] Cameron: a new mem­ber, new QAV club mem­ber, Glen emailed me over the week­end, said he’s been lis­ten­ing since the begin­ning. But just signed up to QAV club, uh, don’t know what took him so long, but he said, uh, he loved the in depth analy­sis and Vul­can lev­el of emo­tion­al detach­ment, which he said suit­ed him to a T.

[00:02:57] Cameron: Now, I, I,

[00:02:58] Tony: that you? You or me?

[00:03:00] Cameron: I think we know which one of us is the Vul­can. Um, heh,

[00:03:05] Cameron: heh, heh, heh. I went and looked at a bunch of Spock, uh, clips to try and find a good one to add to my playlist for you, but I could­n’t find any­thing suit­able. But, um,

[00:03:15] Tony: The needs of the many out­weigh the needs of the one.

[00:03:19] Cameron: yeah, okay. Is that why you do this pod­cast? It’s, you know, you’re think­ing about the

[00:03:22] Cameron: needs of the many. That’s your

[00:03:23] Tony: Yeah.

[00:03:26] Cameron: Um,

[00:03:27] Tony: Not just you and I.

[00:03:29] Cameron: So, um, Vul­canol­o­gy, I decid­ed is the, uh, title for this episode.

[00:03:36] Tony: Well, Spock has always been my favorite

[00:03:39] Tony: movie

[00:03:39] Cameron: No kid­ding.

[00:03:41] Tony: Yeah, I’ve always loved Spock. Live long and pros­per.

[00:03:48] Cameron: You have, you, what’s the line at the end? You have always have been

[00:03:54] Tony: Yes, you were and you always have been my great­est friend.

[00:03:57] Cameron: friend. Shed a tear when I saw that the first time. It’s a pret­ty good episode. Pret­ty, pret­ty touch­ing scene for Star Trek. Uh, well, thank you, Glenn. Uh, yes, the Vul­can lev­el of emo­tion­al detach­ment. We’ve talked about that a lot, um, in our episodes recent­ly. And, uh, I, I want to test your Vul­can lev­el of, um, Emo­tion­al detach­ment this week.

[00:04:23] Tony: Okay, you’re gonna trig­ger me, are you? Well,

[00:04:30] Cameron: ASG, Autosports Group, they went ex div, I think on the 16th of May, the share price plum­met­ed accord­ing­ly. It was a good div­i­dend too, it was like 10 cents, ful­ly franked. They had, their pay­ment date was the 31st of May and the share price did­n’t recov­er. It slid a lit­tle bit yes­ter­day, broke through its 3PTL.

[00:04:52] Cameron: Well, as we fac­tored back the div­i­dend out of it, it was still below the 3PTL. Um, it was only a cou­ple of cents below. I think the 3PTL is about, um, 3. 21, 2. 21. Sor­ry. And it fell down to about 2. 18 yes­ter­day. And then I was, I hold it in a bunch of dif­fer­ent port­fo­lios. Like I’ve got one, I’ve got six parcels of it in var­i­ous things.

[00:05:18] Cameron: And I went and had a look at its his­to­ry. of going ex div every six months and it fol­lows the same pat­tern every time. Drops sub­stan­tial­ly, the val­ue of the div­i­dend and a lit­tle bit more has that post div­i­dend sort of stu­por. Then it recov­ers, usu­al­ly with­in a month or so, it recov­ers, goes to an all new high, Then it goes ex div, slides again, waits a bit, recov­ers, goes up.

[00:05:47] Cameron: So, I know rules is rules, but I was like, real­ly? Like, I can see it on the graph. I know what hap­pens. So, two ques­tions. So, I did­n’t sell it yes­ter­day. My excuse was I was going to talk to you about it. It went back up to 2. 20 about an hour ago, but it has slid down to 2. 19. So, it’s near­ly back up above the 3PTL. Um, but the two ques­tions were, like, when we know that this hap­pens with a stock like this, we can see it his­tor­i­cal­ly. I know we can’t pre­dict the future, but should we sell it, or should I just give it a lit­tle bit of lee­way? And B, should we be sell­ing it the day before it goes ex div in the future? I know we’ve talked about these sorts of sit­u­a­tions a cou­ple of times in the past, but when you know that these stocks do this, should we be sell­ing it the day before it goes ex div and then buy­ing it back a week lat­er?

[00:06:46] Tony: make the same mon­ey, don’t you? Because you get paid a div­i­dend on the share price. Drops to reflect that.

[00:06:52] Cameron: Yeah.

[00:06:52] Tony: Yeah. Um, and if you sell it before­hand, you’re pay­ing CGT on the gains and then buy­ing it back in. So I’d pre­fer to take the div­i­dend myself. Um, but I agree. I think it’s a fudge. It’s, it’s just fall­en slight­ly below the three point trend line.

[00:07:05] Tony: Um, it’s prob­a­bly going to recov­er because it’s clear­ly been drop­ping because of the, Because of the div­i­dend being paid, or going ex div­i­dend, and then has­n’t quite recov­ered, um, the day after pay­ment. But there’s no hard and fast rule that says it has to recov­er the day after pay­ment, so I give it some lee­way.

[00:07:22] Cameron: Vul­can fudge. It’s like,

[00:07:24] Tony: The Vul­can Fudge, yes.

[00:07:27] Cameron: We’re doing Vul­can hand sig­nals here on the cam­era. It’s like, it’s like an F, like a Vul­can

[00:07:32] Tony: Ah, right, yeah, okay.

[00:07:34] Cameron: down. There you go. The Vul­can fudge. All right. I like that. The Vul­can fudge. Maybe I’ll change. I’ll change the title of the episode to the Vul­can fudge. Well, I’m glad you

[00:07:46] Tony: Well, that was a real­ly good, yeah, thanks for the feed­back. Um, was it

[00:07:49] Cameron: Glenn.

[00:07:50] Tony: Glenn? Glenn, thanks for the feed­back Glenn, glad you signed up and And found it use­ful over the last five years. But in the notes, when you sent me that, I under­lined the word emo­tion­al detach­ment words, emo­tion­al detach­ment, because that’s, that’s such a key part of invest­ing real­ly is, you know, if you, I know we say this a lot, but a lot of the things that can give you a bump steer in invest­ing are around behav­ioral. You know, evo­lu­tion­ary dead ends in our, in the way that we behave psy­cho­log­i­cal­ly. And the only way to guard against that is to have a sys­tem and a process and a frame­work, and that gives you emo­tion­al detach­ment. So it’s so impor­tant, whether it’s QAV or whether it’s some oth­er way of invest­ing, um, you’ve got to have that.

[00:08:36] Cameron: It’s also one of the great Rolling Stone songs from the ear­ly 80s. I’ll be your sav­ior, stead­fast and true, come to your emo­tion­al detach­ment. Does­n’t real­ly rhyme, but the idea was there. Mick knew what he was

[00:08:51] Cameron: doing.

[00:08:52] Tony: Was, was Michael Jack­son singing for the Rolling Stones back then?

[00:08:55] Tony: Was

[00:08:55] Tony: he?

[00:08:55] Cameron: He ripped off Mick. Speak­ing of peo­ple he ripped off, um, this is in After Hours, I’ll talk more about it, but I just watched the Blues Broth­ers again. over the week­end. First time I’ve seen it in years and damn it holds up man. It is such a, such a ridicu­lous feel good film. But just watch­ing Cab Cal­loway and watch­ing James and you go like there’s Michael Jack­son right there, you know.

[00:09:22] Cameron: It’s, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s, Cab Cal­loway comes out at the end in his white tails and does the spin­ning on the spot thing that Michael did. And I think Cab Cal­loway came up with a ver­sion of the moon­walk too. I think I saw a video of that not that long ago, back in the, you know, 30s or 40s, when­ev­er he was doing his thing in his

[00:09:41] Tony: And so I saw a video recent­ly too, some­one did that, you know, when Michael Jack­son glued his shoes to the floors and then would lean way for­ward. That was done by some­one back in the 30s and 40s

[00:09:50] Tony: first too.

[00:09:51] Cameron: Yeah. Did­n’t glue it. I think he was a nail. Yeah.

[00:09:54] Tony: Yeah. Okay.

[00:09:56] Cameron: Um, but I was also, I was think­ing, um, what a great record of, you know, uh, Cab Cal­loway, James Brown, Aretha Franklin, John Lee Hook­er, et cetera, and that they cap­tured. But then of course, Belushi died before all of them. Belushi died like two years after they made that,

[00:10:14] Tony: mm

[00:10:15] Cameron: and what a great, what a great tes­ta­ment to his tal­ent too.

[00:10:19] Cameron: But I think that it’s Ack­royd. And I think John Lan­dis direct­ed it. There’s, there’s prob­a­bly like more impor­tant and even a bet­ter film than Ghost­busters. I think even though Ghost­busters is prob­a­bly the more famous, I think Blues Broth­ers is just such a, any­way, it’s after hours. Feel good film.

[00:10:35] Tony: yeah, it was, and um, it was, I saw a doc­u­men­tary, I think, or some clips any­way on YouTube about, um, about how they came to do it from the, the first sketch at Sat­ur­day Night Live and how they put the band togeth­er and how they toured a lot. And it was, um, it was. Book­er T and the MGs were basi­cal­ly the back­ing band, Steve,

[00:10:56] Cameron: Wow.

[00:10:57] Tony: Steve, uh, Steve Crop­per and Don­ald Luck Dunn.

[00:11:00] Tony: And that made me go back and look at Green Onions, one of my favourite songs, again.

[00:11:04] Tony: Yeah. And you can see the very ear­ly Steve Crop­per

[00:11:08] Tony: and Don­ald

[00:11:08] Tony: Luck

[00:11:08] Cameron: Oh, there’s a clip. Oh yeah. Like

[00:11:10] Tony: Oh yeah.

[00:11:11] Cameron: or some­thing.

[00:11:12] Tony: Yeah. It’s real­ly, it’s so

[00:11:14] Tony: cool.

[00:11:14] Cameron: Oh, that’s, and that’s what I said to Chris­sy at the end of it. That’s one of the things that I think is so great about the film too, is like, it’s the real guys, a real band play­ing real music, like real musi­cians back­ing them, which you don’t often see in those sorts of films.

[00:11:28] Cameron: Biopics

[00:11:29] Cameron: and that

[00:11:29] Tony: came out before the movie, Brief­case Full of Blues. That

[00:11:32] Tony: was

[00:11:32] Tony: fan­tas­tic.

[00:11:33] Cameron: I lis­ten to that a lot. It’s so great. Just, and Belushi’s voice was, he was so great. He could real­ly knock those tunes out any­way. And John Can­dy’s cameo, and uh, Steven Spiel­berg’s cameo. Oh, Car­rie, just that scene when he drops her

[00:11:49] Tony: real­ly drops up, hmm,

[00:11:54] Cameron: And he just drops her in the mud. Let’s go. Oh, so good. Any­way, TK, that’s all the news I’ve got. The mar­ket’s been up and down. Port­fo­lio’s doing what it does. Um, I got noth­ing else real­ly news wise to talk about. Do you got any­thing before we get into some ques­tions?

[00:12:17] Tony: I did but I’ve for­got­ten it, look­ing at my notes here and I’ve got pages and pages of scrib­ble and I can’t find it, um, oh yes that’s right I found it, so just, just for inter­est sake and not amus­ing, uh, I was lis­ten­ing to the Stock Doc­tor. Um, week­ly video that Kien does and, uh, comes out on a Fri­day and they were talk­ing about earn­ings per share fore­casts and how that can cor­re­late with, uh, stock prices.

[00:12:45] Tony: And if you are a Stock Doc­tor sub­scriber, you can go into the graph on the front page and there’s one of the drop down options is to do EPS revi­sions or EPS fore­cast changes, um, which will then give you a graph across the bot­tom of the screen. Which shows how the EPS has moved, or how the EPS fore­cast has moved.

[00:13:05] Tony: And yeah, there is a bit of a cor­re­la­tion there. So it’s some­thing I’m going to look at fur­ther and see if that can be of any use to us. But it does seem to be dri­ving share price sen­ti­ment a fair

[00:13:14] Tony: bit.

[00:13:14] Cameron: And how would we use that in the­o­ry? Would that be some­thing we would score on if it’s had a

[00:13:20] Tony: Yeah.

[00:13:21] Cameron: fore­cast

[00:13:21] Tony: Yeah. Yeah. And that’s my think­ing. I don’t, I haven’t worked out exact­ly how we would score it. Um, whether it’s got to have a recent one or whether it’s got to be trend­ing up or not trend­ing down, for exam­ple. Um, You know, the, maybe the bet­ter posi­tion is the stock price is trend­ing down, but the earn­ings upgrades are trend­ing up.

[00:13:42] Tony: That would be a good time to buy some­thing. So I’ve just got to do the research on that, but any­way, worth inves­ti­gat­ing. And, um, if any­one wants to have a look at it and give us their thoughts, that’d be great.

[00:13:52] Cameron: Speak­ing of Stock Doc­tor, I haven’t noticed the data integri­ty issues for the last week or two. So hope­ful­ly they’ve nailed all those down. Tony did send a let­ter to Tim Lin­coln, an email, a let­ter.

[00:14:06] Tony: Yeah. Licked a stamp.

[00:14:09] Cameron: Had his wax seal on it, had it deliv­ered by couri­er.

[00:14:15] Tony: Mer­cury, the god of, wing, wing the wing mes­sen­ger.

[00:14:20] Cameron: Tony did send Tim an email and Tim told Tony he would, uh, look into it. So, um, it looks like he did that. So thank you, Tim. I know you, I know you tune in every week. So thank you for tak­ing care of that for us. What else you got, TK? Mm

[00:14:36] Tony: Uh, that’s it, I’ve got a pulled pork to do. So my pulled pork this week is on Per­en­ti. which is a min­ing con­trac­tor, and I actu­al­ly did a pulled pork on them back in Octo­ber 23. Uh, and that was when they were just about to acquire a com­pa­ny called DDH1, which is a drilling com­pa­ny. I think the DD and DDH was for dia­mond drilling.

[00:15:00] Tony: Uh, and both com­pa­nies were on our buy list back then. Um, DDH also had, uh, Pre­vi­ous­ly acquired Ozdrill and I think SWIC, which were also on our buy list in the past, so it’s been a bit of a roll up in the min­ing drilling space. But I thought I’d go back and re look at Per­en­ti now that we’ve got some fig­ures since they acquired DDH and just see how it all worked out.

[00:15:24] Tony: So, uh, just a quick recap on Per­en­ti, found­ed in Kal­go­or­lie in 1987, head­quar­tered in Perth, but they oper­ate glob­al­ly in 13 coun­tries. They pro­vide con­tract min­ing ser­vices, equip­ment rental and ser­vic­ing to the min­ing sec­tor, min­ing tech, so min­ing tech­nol­o­gy, drilling ser­vices, And they have approx­i­mate­ly 11, 000 employ­ees around the world.

[00:15:53] Tony: So that’s, that’s Per­en­ti. I guess peo­ple can hear more about them if they go back to Octo­ber and lis­ten to us then when I did a pulled pork. Uh, so the first half results have come out and they only include I think maybe not quite three months of DDH in them, but they seem to be quite, uh, quite pos­i­tive.

[00:16:15] Tony: Um, they’re cer­tain­ly bet­ter than they were the half before, and they’ve upgrad­ed their guid­ance, talk­ing about EPS guid­ances. Um, so just for some sort of con­text, pri­or to the takeover of DDH, Per­en­ti’s mar­ket cap was about 870 mil­lion, DDH was about 330 mil­lion, and that’s about the price that Per­en­ti paid, um, so the idea was that they were going to, that Per­en­ti was going to bulk up its drilling divi­sion, which it has, um, and I guess the, one of the things that DDH has also brought is the abil­i­ty to drill down deep, so they can, their drilling rigs can go as low as 3, 000 metres, which is, you know, quite a sig­nif­i­cant amount to go down into the earth.

[00:17:04] Tony: Um,

[00:17:06] Cameron: Isn’t that where the Mor­locks

[00:17:07] Tony: first half, yeah,

[00:17:10] Cameron: Wow. They got­ta be, they got­ta, they got­ta be very care­ful about upset­ting the Mor­lock, uh, civ­i­liza­tion.

[00:17:17] Tony: Right.

[00:17:18] Cameron: That’s a crazy, that’s crazy deep.

[00:17:22] Tony: It is, I know, three

[00:17:23] Tony: kilo­me­ters.

[00:17:23] Cameron: And you’re like,

[00:17:24] Tony: It

[00:17:24] Tony: is.

[00:17:25] Cameron: going through the crust of the earth, get­ting down into like,

[00:17:30] Tony: ooh, where the dinosaurs were. Yeah.

[00:17:33] Cameron: that is crazy. Oh my god,

[00:17:34] Tony: It is.

[00:17:35] Cameron: they could go down that deep.

[00:17:37] Tony: Yeah, it’s incred­i­ble, isn’t it? Yeah, any­way, so, um, the DDH acqui­si­tion has already start­ed to improve the results. So, uh, looks like the acqui­si­tion hap­pened on the 6th of Octo­ber, 23. But, um, for the half, rev­enue was up 13%. Net prof­it up 20%, um, and they’ve reduced some of their debt, which has been good.

[00:18:00] Tony: Um, Per­en­ti report­ed that, um, the net assets, Uh, we’re greater than the pur­chase price when they bought DDH, so they’ve actu­al­ly report­ed an under­ly­ing gain of 29. 4 mil­lion on the deal. In oth­er words, they bought, um, the DDH assets for less than book, which is some­thing that we, we would have been attract­ed to when DDH was on the, the buy list.

[00:18:22] Tony: Uh, Perenti’s Gave a bit of an update on the acqui­si­tion and they report that DDH employ­ee turnover is sta­ble and there’s been no loss of key man­age­ment per­son­nel, um, dur­ing the half. So it seems to be Going well and being inte­grat­ed nice­ly. Uh, Per­en­ti report 5 mil­lion of syn­er­gies, um, and reaf­firmed their tar­get of 22 mil­lion in syn­er­gy.

[00:18:47] Tony: So it’s, it seems to be work­ing for them. Um, they, DDH, uh, improved their growth out­look and Stock Doc­tor report, uh, fore­cast rev­enue growth of 18 per­cent next year for Per­en­ti and net net prof­it growth of 82 per­cent and earn­ings per share growth of 40%. 8%. So it seems like the, the acqui­si­tion is work­ing well for Per­en­ti.

[00:19:14] Tony: And I just thought I’d vis­it the num­bers because PRN is just now back on the buy list, uh, hav­ing been off since about the time that we, um, we did, I did the last pulled pork. So I’m using a stock price of 1. 50. 1 real­ly, 1. 005. It’s less than con­sen­sus tar­get. IV1 for this com­pa­ny now is 0. 72. IV2 is 1. 81.

[00:19:35] Tony: So it’s less than IV2. Um, this is a large ADT com­pa­ny, espe­cial­ly now after the acqui­si­tion. So ADT is 1. 6 mil­lion. Uh, we don’t score it for yield. The yield is only 1. 99%, but that’s fine. Uh, Stock Doc­tor finan­cial health is strong and the trend is steady. So it scores for those. And PE is low, but not quite the low­est.

[00:20:01] Tony: So PE is just over sev­en, um, which is all but one, um, the low­est in the last three years, but we don’t score it for that. Um, the excit­ing thing about this com­pa­ny is Prop­Caf is 2. 33 times, so we can buy it for, you know, a very quick pay­back, um, using its oper­at­ing cash flow. Uh, I sus­pect I’ll use that cash flow either to fund more acqui­si­tions, but also like­ly to pay down debt.

[00:20:27] Tony: Neps for this com­pa­ny is 1. 35, so we, you know, the share price of a dol­lar, we’re buy­ing it for, um, much less than its net equi­ty per share. I do high­light that Net Tan­gi­ble Assets is 1. 19, so there’s some good­will some­where in that equi­ty, um, but we’re still buy­ing it for less than NTA as well, so it’s good on both counts.

[00:20:48] Tony: Uh, so it scores for that. Scores for obvi­ous­ly for net equi­ty per share plus 30%, which is 1. 75. So we’re well below that with the share price. Uh, it’s scor­ing for growth over PE, which is 4. 56 times. Um, so those growth, uh, fore­casts, uh, and low PE are help­ing that. Our hur­dle is 1. 5, so it mas­sive­ly out­per­forms there.

[00:21:10] Tony: Um, there’s no own­er founder. Direc­tors hold about 3 per­cent of the com­pa­ny, but, um, We don’t score it for that. Uh, it is back to being a three point trend­line upturn, so it scores for that. And it’s con­sis­tent­ly increas­ing equi­ty, as we went back and re looked at, is scor­ing for that. So, over­all, the qual­i­ty score is 13 out of 16, or 81%, and the QAV score is 0.

[00:21:36] Tony: 35. So, This is a large ADT com­pa­ny. It’s come on the buy list this week and it’s near the top and it’s been around for a while. Peo­ple may con­tin­ue to own it, but it seems like, uh, the DDH acqui­si­tions going well for it. And, um, I think that’s primed it for growth was my note on that.

[00:21:55] Cameron: Yes, well, the last time you did a pulled pork on it, the share price,

[00:22:00] Tony: No, don’t, don’t men­tion. It’s come good.

[00:22:04] Cameron: it’s come

[00:22:04] Tony: just focus on the upside. Don’t give me those neg­a­tive waves.

[00:22:09] Cameron: I remem­ber even before you did the Pulled Pork on it, back in August last year, it deliv­ered record FY23 results, head­lined by record rev­enue and record under­ly­ing earn­ings, 18 per­cent increase in rev­enue, 50 per­cent increase in EBIT, 58 per­cent increase in EDPAT, and the shares dropped by 12 per­cent and I had to sell it.

[00:22:33] Cameron: It became a 3PTL sell. And then it con­tin­ued to sell. Like I was just, that was in August. I was just look­ing at, how did it do? So it dropped from, uh, 31st of July, I was trad­ing at 1. 20. End of August, it had dropped down to 1. 06. We sold it some­where in that week. Then it con­tin­ued to drop down to 82 cents the begin­ning of this year.

[00:22:56] Cameron: And it’s back up to about a buck, 1. Now, so the 3PTL got us out. Uh, at a good time, but, uh, yeah, that was, that was heart­break­ing at the time. Record results and the

[00:23:11] Tony: Yeah. I think

[00:23:12] Cameron: tanked it.

[00:23:14] Tony: I sus­pect the, uh, the mar­kets often don’t like acquir­ing com­pa­nies. I sus­pect once the acqui­si­tion was announced, peo­ple just ran for the exits with­out even

[00:23:23] Tony: think­ing too

[00:23:24] Cameron: One of our light mem­bers at the time who worked, worked or works at PRN sent me an email at the time say­ing, quick, Quick feed­back from CEO. Mar­ket did­n’t like lack of a div­i­dend giv­en con­sid­er­a­tion of a div­i­dend was pre­vi­ous­ly stat­ed when lever­age was under one but with refi­nanc­ing due next year they want­ed to keep some buffer plus allo­ca­tion of future funds slash invest­ments to elec­tri­fi­ca­tion risk man­age­ment and min­ing tech­nol­o­gy which have a num­ber of years pay­back rather than short­er term returns to share­hold­ers.

[00:23:55] Cameron: Loss of first US ten­der and big local ten­der weren’t seen as large neg­a­tives. So any­way.

[00:24:03] Tony: yeah, they’re lost. Um, but cer­tain­ly back on the buy list now look­ing good.

[00:24:08] Cameron: Ah, good. Thank you for doing that again. Got a cou­ple of ques­tions. Should we get into those?

[00:24:15] Tony: Yeah, sure. But

[00:24:18] Cameron: Paul, long time, long time sub­scriber. Paul, uh, Cue Ener­gy is on our buy list and I’ve start­ed look­ing at it. CUE is actu­al­ly a sub­sidiary of a larg­er enti­ty, New Zealand Oil and Gas, NZO. NZO are cur­rent­ly list­ed on the New Zealand exchange, but are delist­ing soon to relist on the ASX.

[00:24:38] Cameron: All the Kiwis are com­ing here. Last per­son out of New Zealand, turn off the lights.

[00:24:44] Tony: if they get into trou­ble, we have to deport them back to New Zealand.

[00:24:47] Cameron: Yeah, exact­ly.

[00:24:49] Tony: because they were born over there.

[00:24:50] Cameron: I’m with Sam Neill and Rus­sell Crowe, but my ques­tion is, in excess, no, the oth­er ones,

[00:24:57] Tony: We should, we should get a vote every year. Like every time there’s a fed­er­al elec­tion, we should get a vote on which Kiwis to accept and which ones to send back.

[00:25:06] Cameron: I’ve got a Sam Neill sto­ry com­ing up lat­er on any­way, but my ques­tion is real­ly about div­i­dends. Cue Ener­gy has recent­ly paid a large spe­cial div­i­dend and announced a new pol­i­cy to con­tin­ue pay­ing div­i­dends in the future. Div­i­dends are inter­est­ing to me as I invest through my SMSF and like to take advan­tage of the tax ben­e­fits aris­ing from div­i­dends.

[00:25:27] Cameron: How­ev­er, I don’t think many of the QAV com­pa­nies are sub­sidiaries of larg­er com­pa­nies. How sure can I be that once Q starts earn­ing enough cash to think about pay­ing a div­i­dend, that the mon­ey won’t just be shuf­fled up the line to the even­tu­al own­er, in this case, New Zealand Oil Gas? Point 2. Rather than down the line to the small own­ers like me, Would it be bet­ter to con­sid­er invest­ing in the par­ent com­pa­ny?

[00:25:53] Cameron: I guess when it comes down to it, my ques­tion real­ly is, who owns the div­i­dends?

[00:25:59] Tony: Yeah, good ques­tion, Paul. How, how are you going? Um, so, NZO though, and CUE, Both have been on the buy list, I think they’re both very close to their sell lines now, so I think CUE was on the buy list last week, it’s come up again this week, it might pop back on again, it trades around at sell price, same with NZO, and NZO only has a small ADT on the ASX, but that will improve when it relists, delists in New Zealand and relists over here.

[00:26:29] Tony: But I guess that’s buy the buy. Uh, well I had a look at this today, NZO owns 50. 04 per­cent of CUE, and that gives them a major­i­ty of board seats, so they have, looks like they have 5 out of 9 board seats. So they will, they will, You know, poten­tial­ly con­trol the div­i­dend pol­i­cy, um, which, which the board sets.

[00:26:53] Tony: Uh, it can be, I guess, over­turned by a vote at the AGM, but, um, you’d expect the board to set the div­i­dend pol­i­cy. Uh, but I think in this case, Paul, your inter­ests and NZO’s inter­ests align because 50, 50. 04 per­cent does­n’t give NZO con­trol over the finan­cial aspects of the com­pa­ny in terms of being able to con­sol­i­date the prof­it and loss into NZO’s bal­ance sheets.

[00:27:19] Tony: So the only way they can get mon­ey out from their invest­ment is by div­i­dends, the same way that you are. So it’s actu­al­ly, you know, In NZO’s inter­ests, and they hold the major­i­ty of the board for CUE to start pay­ing div­i­dends to return cap­i­tal back to um, NZO. And because the rule on the ASX is that every div­i­dend has to be equal­ly dis­trib­uted amongst share­hold­ers, then it, small investors like Paul will also get the same div­i­dend for share as NZO.

[00:27:45] Tony: So I think you are, um, fine being list­ed in, uh, being, um, invest­ed in CUE if you are. Uh, and, uh. I think if it makes sense that NZO is going to con­tin­ue to want div­i­dends out of their invest­ment in CUE and that they’ll con­tin­ue to have them flow. I did want to point out one par­tic­u­lar item. Paul men­tions that he’s inter­est­ed in div­i­dends because of his invest­ment in his SMSF, which is not unusu­al.

[00:28:12] Tony: I mean, the rea­son I sus­pect that that’s the case is because of the frank­ing cred­its. And so div­i­dends get a bit of a spe­cial boost in Um, super funds because they have a low­er tax rate than gen­er­al­ly we pay either through own­er­ship in a cor­po­ra­tion or through, through our own pri­vate tax arrange­ments.

[00:28:33] Tony: Uh, so gen­er­al­ly, um, you’ll get a cash rebate when it comes to tax time for the frank­ing cred­it or part of the frank­ing cred­it, which is, um, 30%. That’s the, the tax that’s been paid by CUE is 30%. And then, um, if you are pay­ing say 15%, um, tax, uh, in your. SMSF, you’ll get 15 per­cent cash rebate back for the amount of tax that notion­al­ly has already been charged to you, um, but it was too high, so you get a rebate for it.

[00:29:01] Tony: Um, the only prob­lem is that, um, I went and had a look at CUE’s noti­fi­ca­tions and they, um, I said that they were doing a spe­cial div­i­dend, but it would­n’t have frank­ing cred­its, so just be aware of that, Paul, if you’re count­ing on a spe­cial sort of boost to your SMSF, you won’t get it with CUE. Um, gen­er­al­ly, com­pa­nies, um, who pay div­i­dends with­out frank­ing cred­its, Do it for two rea­sons.

[00:29:23] Tony: One either they haven’t earned enough income to pay enough tax to frank the div­i­dends. Um, so there isn’t, so they haven’t paid com­pa­ny tax and so they there­fore can’t, um, pass on a frank­ing cred­it to you. Or the income is from over­seas, it’s derived over­seas and there­fore was­n’t taxed in Aus­tralia. Same, same sort of thing.

[00:29:43] Tony: Um, which I think might be the case with CUE, although I don’t know. Um, know the busi­ness that well, but yeah, just be aware of that. If you are expect­ing frank­ing cred­its, you may not get them with CUE.

[00:29:55] Cameron: What’s the um, ADT on CUE? I’m just look­ing to see if they’re on my ASX 300 list.

[00:30:01] Tony: Think they’re pret­ty small from mem­o­ry.

[00:30:03] Cameron: Yeah, they’re not on the ASX 300 so I would­n’t be able to buy them with my Super­fund. Am I Super­fund? Man­aged by Super. If Paul runs his own, I guess he has more flex­i­bil­i­ty with

[00:30:17] Tony: Yeah, yep. Uh, ADT for C U E, lot of acronyms there. Uh, it’s 45,

[00:30:26] Tony: 000.

[00:30:30] Cameron: Ah, but good ques­tion. Thanks, Paul. By the way, um, ASG’s up to 2. 20 again, so nud­gin it. Just nud­gin it.

[00:30:40] Tony: There you go. If you close your eyes for a cou­ple of days, you don’t need to fudge. Just, you can just, yeah, just say what’s going to hap­pen

[00:30:45] Cameron: Close your eyes,

[00:30:46] Tony: Turn, turn your sens­es off in Vul­can ter­mi­nol­o­gy.

[00:30:51] Cameron: The only oth­er ques­tion we’ve got, anoth­er good one from Trent. He says, MME is on top of the buy list and new to the buy list. Dun­no about that. Is it real­ly new to the buy list?

[00:31:03] Tony: Uh, no idea that pulled pork on it last year or ear­li­er this year.

[00:31:06] Cameron: Yeah, it might be new ish. I’m look­ing at his­tor­i­cal buy lists. MME. This

[00:31:13] Tony: It was­n’t on last week, I think is Paul’s

[00:31:14] Cameron: right,

[00:31:15] Tony: Sor­ry, uh, French point.

[00:31:17] Cameron: yeah, I’m look­ing at it on the his­tor­i­cal buy lists and, uh, chart and it’s only giv­en me the one result. Advanced search, let’s look at, uh, this, yeah, with­in this sheet, yeah. I think it may not have been on for quite a while by the looks of it, which is sur­pris­ing me. I always feel like MME is one of the reg­u­lars.

[00:31:42] Tony: Yeah, so I did it as a pulled pork in Feb­ru­ary, so it was def­i­nite­ly on the buy list in Feb­ru­ary.

[00:31:48] Cameron: It’s not show­ing up on my, um, his­tor­i­cal buy lists, uh, table, but, okay. Bye. Take your word on them. Um, any­who, back to Tren­t’s ques­tion. He says, As a way to do a refresh­er on the QAV check­list, can you do a quick walk­through of MME score last week ver­sus this week and what the trig­ger is for it to now appear?

[00:32:15] Cameron: Assume the main dri­ver is it now has a buy line, but inter­est­ing­ly its QAV score has fall­en from last week. I note the IV2 EPS growth have also changed, but no new report, so is EPS growth based on ana­lyst esti­mate change? Also inter­est­ing to note, two oth­er sim­i­lar busi­ness­es, Plen­ti, PLT, and Lat­i­tude Finance, LFS, have recent­ly appeared on the buy list.

[00:32:40] Cameron: Trent, um,

[00:32:42] Tony: Yeah, I thought that was inter­est­ing. They’re all, they’re all sort of, um, non bank lenders to peo­ple, per­son­al lenders. So, uh, don’t know what’s hap­pen­ing in that sec­tor, but, um, Yeah, some­thing is, and they’re all now on our buy list. Trent, the answer is to do a lot with, um, the way the bread load­er’s work­ing out the L1 and L2.

[00:33:01] Tony: So, the dif­fer­ence between last week and this week is that it’s the, last week was the end of the month, and we now rolled over into a new month this week. And, um, that just hap­pened to coin­cide with the change in the L1 and L2 on the bread loader. So, last week, L1 for this com­pa­ny, MME, was, um, March 20 at 0.57 cents, and L two was April 21 at a dol­lar 37, and the sell price was 360 4 this week.

[00:33:29] Tony: L one is Novem­ber 23 at 0.06, so 6 cents L two’s April 24 at 7 cents, and the sell price is 7 cents. So, um, MME is one of those com­pa­nies we’ve seen share graphs over the, we’ve seen share graphs like this before over the course of the last five years. Uh, you know, in the first half of the five year peri­od, the share price was much high­er than what it’s been in the last year or two.

[00:33:53] Tony: And, uh, this just hap­pens to be the month that resets the L1 and L2 to a new sell price. And it dropped dra­mat­i­cal­ly from 0. 364 to 0. 07. And, so that’s prob­a­bly the rea­son why it appeared this week. Um, the price did go up slight­ly, which affect­ed price to cash flow, etc. So, for exam­ple, last week, the Qual­i­ty score was 69%, this week it’s 73%.

[00:34:19] Tony: Last week the price was 6. 4 cents, this week it’s 7. 6 cents. Prop­Caf last week was 0. 34, um, this time, this time it’s 0. 41 times. So some changes, slight changes to the fig­ures, uh, and the dif­fer­ence in the scor­ing I think will be due to the price move­ment up, um, but, uh, the main rea­son is the new L1 and L2 has changed the This week, because it’s a new month.

[00:34:48] Cameron: Right, and I note that it’s, um, actu­al­ly right on the sell line, it’s trad­ing at 7 cents at the moment, so it’s a Josephine and right on its sell line at the moment, so even though it’s on the buy list, prob­a­bly would­n’t be buy­ing it unless its price goes So, that’s Above eight cents, which I think it has to be to get above being a Josephine.

[00:35:13] Cameron: So do you know what hap­pened to it in 2022 that caused the share price to drop from what­ev­er it was, two bucks down to eight cents, sev­en

[00:35:21] Tony: I don’t, sor­ry, no, I can’t remem­ber what I said in the pulled pork on that one. Um, no, it does­n’t, uh, I’d just be guess­ing, sor­ry.

[00:35:31] Cameron: Hmm, look­ing at their um, announce­ments from back over that peri­od does­n’t real­ly seem to help. Some­thing about a fund­ing struc­ture that hap­pened late in 2022. Let’s see what goes back ear­li­er. I can’t see. I can’t go back far enough, fast enough. Any­way, it’s a big, big drop. They com­plet­ed 22, which result­ed in a 27 per­cent decline in their price. Any­way, it’s trad­ing very low com­pared to where it was a cou­ple of years ago.

[00:36:09] Tony: I might do a, I might see if, um, Plen­ti or Lat­i­tude Finan­cial are worth doing a pulled pork on next week. They’re small AT& T stocks, but they are new to our buy list as

[00:36:18] Cameron: Hmm.

[00:36:20] Tony: I had a bit to do with LFS in a pri­or life when it was GE mon­ey. And we launched, uh, some cred­it cards

[00:36:26] Tony: with them.

[00:36:27] Cameron: Oh, real­ly?

[00:36:28] Tony: Hmm,

[00:36:29] Cameron: Must have been a long time

[00:36:30] Cameron: ago.

[00:36:32] Tony: Yeah, it was. Back when I was work­ing for Shell. Shell Mas­ter­card, and then, um, had a bit to do with them in the Fly­buys pro­gram when I was at Coles Myer, and, uh, they, they ran the Myer card and the Coles Myer cred­it card. Back

[00:36:46] Cameron: Hmm.

[00:36:47] Tony: when they were called GE Mon­ey, before they sold out and float­ed as Lat­i­tude’s finan­cial ser­vices.

[00:36:54] Cameron: Vague­ly recall GE mon­ey from back in the day. All right. Well, I hope that helped, Trent. And that is all of the ques­tions for today, TK. After hours, how did your hors­es go? You had a horse run on the week­end, did­n’t you?

[00:37:15] Tony: Nah, I had one. Oh, I did actu­al­ly, indu­bitably, you’re right. Uh, a horse rac­ing up in, um, was rac­ing in Bow Desert of all places. But just, uh, try­ing to get a run. There’s been lots of wet tracks up there recent­ly and it ran fourth. So,

[00:37:30] Cameron: Not bad.

[00:37:31] Tony: uh, not too bad.

[00:37:33] Cameron: What else have you been up to for fun? Golf, how’s the golf?

[00:37:37] Tony: Yep. Played Magen­ta Shores, played, uh, Bondville, played Tunkari twice, so it’s been a lot of fun with Rud­dy and anoth­er mate Jeff. Uh, yeah, just trav­el­ling around, it’s been good fun. Rud­dy and I have a lot of, get up to a lot of silli­ness in the car when we’re dri­ving along. It’s always

[00:37:55] Tony: fun.

[00:37:56] Cameron: Silli­ness. What kind of silli­ness do two guys of your age get up to in the car?

[00:38:02] Tony: ha ha ha ha

[00:38:04] Cameron: know, NSFW or can we talk about it?

[00:38:07] Tony: No, it’s def­i­nite­ly safe for work. It’s usu­al­ly Ben­ny Hill jokes. Ha ha ha ha ha ha! Bad, uh, bad Chi­nese imper­son­ations. But um, yeah, we have fun.

[00:38:18] Cameron: Not sure that is safe for work these days.

[00:38:20] Tony: No, true. Alex always pulls me up on that. Cook­ie boy.

[00:38:27] Cameron: I just start­ed, uh, read­ing a biog­ra­phy on Reil­ly, Ace of Spies.

[00:38:34] Tony: Oh, that’s, that’s the Sam Neill con­nec­tion.

[00:38:36] Cameron: Neill con­nec­tion.

[00:38:37] Cameron: I’ve nev­er watched the series. I went to try and find it. It’s not on any of the stream­ing ser­vices at the moment. I can’t, I remem­ber when it was out of the 80s. I nev­er real­ly paid much atten­tion, but Sid­ney George Reil­ly has popped up in one of the books.

[00:38:53] Cameron: I was, I was read­ing a book on the his­to­ry of MI6 as part of my Cold War.

[00:39:00] Tony: Oh, yeah. Okay.

[00:39:01] Cameron: Sid­ney Reil­ly came up as being deeply con­nect­ed with MI6 in the ear­ly part of its his­to­ry. And, uh, I was like, I know noth­ing about this guy. And they were talk­ing about him like he was the real deal. And in fact, one of the things that’s often said about him is he’s one of the guys that Ian Flem­ing based James Bond on because, um, one of the guys that Reil­ly was involved with, Um, in sort of 1918 ish, when they were try­ing to, um, assas­si­nate Lenin was, uh, a guy called Flock­hart who end­ed up, you know, Flem­ing knew quite well and worked with, and they reck­on that Flock­hart would have told Flem­ing a lot of sto­ries about Reil­ly and that he, um, Uh, you know, then sort of built James Bond part­ly around this char­ac­ter.

[00:39:52] Cameron: As I think there was a num­ber of peo­ple that influ­enced the devel­op­ment of Bond, but, um, yeah. So I read, I read his Wikipedia page and was like, Oh my God. You know much, do you ever see the series? Do you know much about this guy?

[00:40:04] Tony: No, I read, um, read, uh, what’s his name’s biog­ra­phy last year. Sam Neill, his first big star­ring role was as Reil­ly. And he pikes fun of it because he was sup­posed to be a sex sym­bol. And I think Sam, as much as I like Sam Neill as a per­son, um, I’m not sure he’d ever qual­i­fy as a sex sym­bol in

[00:40:24] Tony: my book.

[00:40:25] Cameron: Well, that’s the fun­ny thing about Reil­ly is that he was­n’t a good look­ing dude, but was mar­ried like five times, had women all over the world, and mar­ried to these women simul­ta­ne­ous­ly around the world. He was a bigamist. Um, but yeah, big hit with the ladies, but the biog­ra­ph­er points out, you know, was not good look­ing, real­ly.

[00:40:51] Cameron: And his orig­i­nal name was like Rosen­berg. He was, uh, Russ­ian Jew who just start­ed sell­ing his ser­vices. I think he, he, like he start­ed off this crazy sto­ry. Like he, in the late 1800s, he was in Eng­land sell­ing like, um, dodgy mir­a­cle cures, uh, and he had some wealthy. Lorde or some­thing that he was sell­ing these mir­a­cle cures to.

[00:41:25] Cameron: Met this Lord’s much younger wife, end­ed up hav­ing an affair with her. The Lord mys­te­ri­ous­ly dies a week after chang­ing his will. She inher­its a ton of mon­ey. and mar­ries Reil­ly. And, uh, then he just sets him­self up as like this gen­tle­men, adven­tur­ous spy dude, and worked for all sides, worked for the Japan­ese, worked for the Rus­sians, worked for the British.

[00:41:55] Cameron: Um, just basi­cal­ly sold him­self to any tak­er and, but would like, uh, Take on iden­ti­ties as, uh, you know, this busi­ness­man or that busi­ness­man and would spend years infil­trat­ing these coun­try’s, uh, busi­ness elite and gov­ern­ment elite in order to get infor­ma­tion that he would then sell to some­body and, you know.

[00:42:21] Cameron: Crazy sto­ries, and half of them prob­a­bly aren’t true, but these are the sto­ries that have come down

[00:42:26] Tony: Yeah, right.

[00:42:28] Cameron: I think his life was first seri­al­ized in the, some British news­pa­per in the ear­ly 1900s, and the biog­ra­phy I’m read­ing, the guy’s try­ing to unpick, you know, what’s real and what’s myth and what’s

[00:42:40] Tony: right. Yep.

[00:42:42] Cameron: any­way, he end­ed up,

[00:42:43] Tony: Sounds

[00:42:44] Cameron: he tried to assas­si­nate Lenin, on behalf of the British, in like 1918, and, Some­body else tried to assas­si­nate him first, shot him a cou­ple of times and so their plot fell through.

[00:43:00] Cameron: Then he went back to Rus­sia in 1925 when there was some­thing called the Trust which was set up, which was a group of elites that were going to over­throw the Bol­she­viks. And sort of reached out to him and he went back to sup­port them in over­throw­ing the Bol­she­viks. And it turned out that the, uh, trust was fake.

[00:43:23] Cameron: It was set up by the OGPU to get him, get him

[00:43:26] Cameron: back into the coun­try, him and

[00:43:28] Tony: Ha ha

[00:43:29] Cameron: And, uh, they got arrest­ed and exe­cut­ed.

[00:43:34] Tony: Ooh.

[00:43:34] Cameron: Any­way, fas­ci­nat­ing, after hear­ing about him all my life, you know, to final­ly read about him, even though he’s not real­ly even a Reil­ly, he was a Rosen­blum, so.

[00:43:44] Tony: Oh, you think he might have been a, uh, been part of your

[00:43:47] Tony: her­itage

[00:43:48] Cameron: No, but I did­n’t know that until this, I’ve, you know, ever since the series came out, I’ve heard about Reil­ly, Ace of Spies, and peo­ple have called me Reil­ly, Ace of Spies, and I always assumed he was a Reil­ly some­where, and I thought, oh, I should read about this guy, he’s a

[00:44:02] Tony: I thought they were call­ing you Ace of Pies, it’s Ace of Spies. Ahh­hh.

[00:44:07] Cameron: I do. I do love a good pie. Any­way, so, that’s fun. Uh, the Blues Broth­ers was

[00:44:14] Cameron: fun.

[00:44:15] Cameron: Uh, hav­ing my wife back is fun, for a whole bunch of rea­sons. Um, heh heh

[00:44:22] Tony: Name one.

[00:44:24] Cameron: heh. We’ve got to keep it safe at work, Tony.

[00:44:27] Tony: No, it’s just she bought you a

[00:44:28] Tony: cap.

[00:44:29] Cameron: me a cap. Yeah.

[00:44:31] Tony: That’s good. And every­thing was fine with her moth­er and sis­ters?

[00:44:35] Cameron: Yeah.

[00:44:36] Tony: As good as it could be?

[00:44:37] Tony: Yep.

[00:44:37] Cameron: Yeah. She had a, she had a good trip. She, um, uh, enjoyed research­ing the U. S. stock mar­ket, uh, for QAV. That was the main pur­pose of the trip.

[00:44:54] Tony: Right. I’m look­ing for­ward to get­ting her on the

[00:44:56] Tony: show

[00:44:56] Cameron: Yes, well, she will pro­vide a writ­ten report, uh,

[00:45:00] Tony: Ah, okay.

[00:45:01] Cameron: Did a lot of research. She did, uh, hap­pen to catch up with some fam­i­ly while she was there, but that was coin­ci­den­tal. Rarely,

[00:45:09] Cameron: yeah, yeah, evenings and week­ends, most of the time was QAV relat­ed research. Um, appar­ent­ly they have a stock mar­ket over there, and it’s boom­ing.

[00:45:19] Tony: It’s been doing okay. Yeah, it’s been doing okay.

[00:45:21] Cameron: what I got out of her report.

[00:45:23] Tony: Yeah, right. That’s, that’s the report in a nut­shell, is

[00:45:26] Tony: it?

[00:45:26] Cameron: basi­cal­ly high lev­el.

[00:45:31] Tony: You’re very obser­vant, your wife.

[00:45:33] Cameron: you can’t, can’t pull a trick on her, I tell you. Uh, that’s it? Yeah, I

[00:45:39] Tony: good. Yep.

[00:45:40] Cameron: tell you. Oh,

[00:45:42] Tony: I watched, um, fin­ished off watch­ing Dream Sce­nario,

[00:45:45] Cameron: what did you think?

[00:45:46] Tony: Oh, until it got hard­er to watch as it went along. I mean, it’s well made, but just the neg­a­tiv­i­ty. Heaped on the char­ac­ter was just hard

[00:45:56] Tony: to

[00:45:56] Tony: watch.

[00:45:57] Cameron: was sort of the point, right?

[00:45:59] Tony: I know. Yeah. I kind of found it like a metaphor for celebri­ty and influ­ences and all that kind of stuff.

[00:46:06] Tony: How, you know, a ran­dom guy was picked out to be a celebri­ty and dragged along by the fame. It went to his head and it turned sour and he could­n’t cope with it. And then in the end, it’s picked up by the dick­heads in the Bev­er­ly Hills com­mu­ni­ty. Hotel or Bev­er­ly Hills house and some­one makes a, you know, a, a scam, some­one sets up a scam and you put on your risk and

[00:46:28] Cameron: not a

[00:46:28] Tony: into your dreams and

[00:46:29] Tony: go, yes, it

[00:46:30] Tony: was

[00:46:30] Cameron: they were actu­al­ly, he got into his wife’s dreams.

[00:46:34] Tony: Uh, yeah, maybe.

[00:46:37] Cameron: yeah.

[00:46:37] Tony: Yeah. Any­way, I, I thought it was real­ly, it, you know, uh, well, it was a metaphor for celebri­ty, but it

[00:46:44] Cameron: I don’t think it was a metaphor.

[00:46:45] Cameron: It was delib­er­ate­ly, it was, he became a celebri­ty. It was very direct. I mean, it was a com­men­tary, I think, on

[00:46:53] Tony: Com­men­tary. That’s a bet­ter word.

[00:46:54] Cameron: Yeah. And do you think. Every­thing turned against him because he had the sex­u­al encounter, the brief attempt­ed flir­ty affair with the younger girl.

[00:47:05] Tony: That was inter­est­ing. I was try­ing to work out whether that was like, um, you know, there’s some kind of moral dimen­sion to it that the dreams all change when, when that hap­pened, but I’m not sure. Cause he was sus­pect­ing his wife was cheat­ing at the same time. So that was the oth­er moral dimen­sion to it, whether, yeah.

[00:47:21] Tony: And he did­n’t actu­al­ly go through with the, with the flirt­ing with the girl. So it was just, I read it as being anoth­er exam­ple of how he was­n’t cop­ing with his, with his

[00:47:29] Tony: new­found

[00:47:30] Cameron: And as soon as he got the fame, he real­ly got angry and bit­ter and want­ed all of his fame to be about his aca­d­e­m­ic work and not about what Michael Cer­a’s PR com­pa­ny want­ed it to be about. And

[00:47:43] Tony: yeah,

[00:47:43] Cameron: messed him up and messed up his life. And yeah, I thought it was a good moral­i­ty tale on instant unearned celebri­ty and chas­ing that.

[00:47:54] Cameron: And he start­ed to rev­el in that and thought he could use it. for good, but it ruined his life.

[00:48:05] Tony: yeah, which I thought was very sad but, you

[00:48:08] Tony: know, prob­a­bly

[00:48:09] Cameron: It was a, it was a dif­fi­cult film, but it, uh, like, high­ly orig­i­nal. I thought the writer, direc­tor, what­ev­er his name was, did a great job. And it’s just great for me to see Cage. You know, I’m num­ber, Cage fan num­ber one. Uh, to see him again, just make an inter­est­ing film, add a char­ac­ter for him. Um, he’s at the top of his game,

[00:48:31] Tony: mm,

[00:48:32] Cameron: at least for many decades, you know, he had a great peri­od in the 80s and ear­ly 90s, but, um, he’s back, like, just,

[00:48:40] Tony: went miss­ing there for a while where he was just an actor for hire and did­n’t mat­ter what the

[00:48:44] Tony: script

[00:48:45] Tony: was.

[00:48:45] Cameron: yeah, but as I always say, it does­n’t mat­ter how bad the film was, he always brought his A game and it was always, always fun to watch

[00:48:53] Tony: Yeah.

[00:48:53] Cameron: Cage. Did you see Pig?

[00:48:57] Tony: No.

[00:48:58] Cameron: Ah, watch Pig. Have you seen Mandy?

[00:49:01] Tony: No.

[00:49:02] Cameron: anoth­er great, these are like some of the great films he’s pushed out in the last cou­ple of years, Pig and Mandy, um, Mandy’s more to type, Pig again, very against type for him, bare­ly talks in the whole film, about a, about a guy who lives out in the woods in a lit­tle hut and some­body steals his truf­fle pig, and you think it’s going to be John Wick, but it’s not.

[00:49:24] Tony: Yeah, right. It’s not.

[00:49:25] Tony: Okay.

[00:49:26] Cameron: that’s where you think it’s going, but it does­n’t go

[00:49:29] Cameron: there. And it’s real­ly, real­ly, I thought a ter­rif­ic per­for­mance. Any­way, very proud

[00:49:34] Tony: Oh, thanks for the

[00:49:35] Cameron: very proud of Nico­las Cage.

[00:49:37] Tony: Yeah, and the last thing, I haven’t start­ed read­ing it yet, but I’ve just bought a book called Soros on Soros, Get­ting Back to Invest­ing, so I’ll pick that one up and have a look through that, based, I mean, based on, um, read­ing about Druck­en­miller last week, we were talk­ing about him on the show last week, and he used to work for Soros, yeah, and I thought I had­n’t read a good book on Soros, so I bought it.

[00:49:59] Tony: Tracked

[00:49:59] Tony: one

[00:49:59] Cameron: Yeah, I think I read some­thing on Soros years ago, but I for­get it all. He’s one of those guys that’s sort of vil­i­fied by par­tic­u­lar­ly the right, you know, they think every­thing is a Soros con­spir­a­cy to do

[00:50:15] Cameron: some­thing.

[00:50:15] Tony: he’s done lots of fund­ing of pro democ­ra­cy cam­paigns in var­i­ous

[00:50:20] Tony: coun­tries. Yeah, so he’s not, not, um, not a fan of the right, well the right’s not a fan of

[00:50:27] Tony: him.

[00:50:27] Cameron: Hmm. Yeah, inter­est­ing char­ac­ter. Would be good to know more about him and what he’s done. You have to tell me what you think.

[00:50:37] Tony: Yeah, look­ing for­ward to read­ing that. Eh, but that’s about it oth­er­wise, it was good to have a break.

[00:50:42] Cameron: And what have you got on for this week?

[00:50:45] Tony: Ah, this week I’m just catch­ing up basi­cal­ly, with what I had­n’t been doing while I was away. Start to look at the US stocks for

[00:50:51] Tony: QAV.

[00:50:51] Cameron: we’re going to try that next week.

[00:50:54] Tony: Ah, if I, can I get back to you on that? I think I’ll have enough time to go through it, but I real­ly want to be prepped and not com­ing into a

[00:51:00] Tony: cold.

[00:51:01] Cameron: Yeah. Well, we should come up with a plan for, um, you know, what, what that first episode is going to look like, what we’re going to talk about,

[00:51:08] Tony: Mmm. Yeah.

[00:51:11] Cameron: I haven’t looked at, or I haven’t looked at the, um, US port­fo­lio today, but when I looked at it, Late last week, there was anoth­er stock, uh, that we had that just had a mas­sive jump.

[00:51:23] Cameron: Let me have a quick look at it, um, for the six months, uh, well, since Sep­tem­ber 20 when the port­fo­lio starts, it’s up 25 per­cent ver­sus the S& P 500 up 18. 9%, but, um, ours may include div­i­dends. I’m not exact­ly sure how Stock­o­pe­dia cal­cu­lates it, and I’m assum­ing the S& P does­n’t. But, um, any­way, either way, 25 per­cent return since, uh, end of

[00:51:56] Cameron: Sep­tem­ber’s pret­ty damn good.

[00:51:59] Tony: Very good. Yeah. So I’ll have a look at that and see what we can do with that. Hey, what’s, um, what’s been the dum­my port­fo­lio lat­est num­ber since incep­tion? The CAGR on that, because I was look­ing through it myself today because I was talk­ing to some indus­try peo­ple at lunch and it looked like it was about 17.

[00:52:16] Tony: 8%, but I may have read that wrong. 15.

[00:52:18] Cameron: Let me just pull it up, let me, it’s all time, 15. 6, 15.

[00:52:28] Tony: 6, I did get it wrong. Okay, still pret­ty good.

[00:52:33] Cameron: 6 ver­sus, um, the STW 8. 6. So not quite dou­ble, but not far off dou­ble.

[00:52:46] Tony: that’s good.

[00:52:48] Cameron: So yeah, no, it’s, uh, doing well, but like, as I think we said last week, and I know I said in some­thing recent­ly, this finan­cial year, um, it’s under­per­formed. We’re up 10. 98 ver­sus STW up 12. 58. And in fact, over the last two years, I think we’ve under, uh, it’s neck and neck. Last two years, we’re up 7. 95, it’s up 8.

[00:53:13] Cameron: 49, eight and a half. So sort of neck and neck over the last two years, slight­ly under this finan­cial year. So, but you know, had all that won­der­ful growth com­ing out of COVID, then it’s eased back a lit­tle bit.

[00:53:28] Tony: Yep.

[00:53:29] Cameron: I assume we’re just wait­ing for our next,

[00:53:32] Tony: Next leg

[00:53:33] Cameron: yeah, next big year, push us up again, and then we.

[00:53:37] Cameron: You know, it evens out.

[00:53:38] Tony: we don’t know when that’s, we don’t know when that’s going to hap­pen.

[00:53:41] Cameron: And who would have thought it was going to hap­pen in, you know, 2020 when the world was shut­ting down. You would not have thought that that was going to hap­pen, but

[00:53:50] Tony: Yeah, that’s right.

[00:53:53] Cameron: all right.

[00:53:54] Tony: Good. Okay. Well, thanks

[00:53:55] Tony: for

[00:53:55] Cameron: Thank you for those ques­tions, Paul and Trent. Good, good ques­tions. Unusu­al ques­tions. Keep them com­ing peo­ple and, uh, QAV a good week.

[00:54:04] Tony: Yeah, you too. Hap­py ASX.