Transcript QAV #501

QAV 501 Club

Cameron  00:07

Wel­come back to QAV. This is episode 501, sea­son 501 being record­ed on the 12th of Jan­u­ary — Wednes­day, the 12th of Jan­u­ary 2022. Apart from very windy golf, how are things down in Cape Schanck,  Tony?

Tony  00:26

Good. Iso­lat­ed, which is what I’m lik­ing at the moment; no Omi­cron.

Cameron  00:30

Real­ly?

Tony  00:31

Yeah, it’s, it’s hot and windy. Well, there’s Omi­cron around, I mean every now, now and then I’ll get an email say­ing some­one’s had it on the golf course, but I go out and do a shop once a week and that’s my only expo­sure to civ­i­liza­tion.

Cameron  00:42

And you got boost­ed last week. How did that go?

Tony  00:46

Good. Yeah, I had… Jen was sick the first days, for about 24 hours, and I was fine. But then the sec­ond and third days, I was just pret­ty washed out. So, some­thing was going on. But I was fine. Noth­ing sick. Had a sore arm for a while.

Cameron  01:00

I believe you’ve now been cleared to play in the Aus­tralian Open this week.

Tony  01:04

Yes, that’s right. I’ve been vaxxed.

Cameron  01:06

Yeah. You’re good to go.

Tony  01:08

But I’m not going to rely on the war­ranties of the fed­er­al gov­ern­ment. You know, it’s great we can’t go over­seas at the moment because the French hate us, the Chi­nese hate us, and now the Ser­bians hate us.

Cameron  01:23

And some Amer­i­cans too. I was watch­ing an inter­view that Glenn Green­wald did with anoth­er top ranked US ten­nis play­er who has cho­sen not to come to Aus­tralia to play in the Aus­tralian Open because he’s not vac­ci­nat­ed, and we have a ter­ror­ist regime down here that he’s not very com­fort­able asso­ci­at­ing with, so.

Tony  01:44

Ter­ror­ist regime?

Cameron  01:47

Some­thing like that — tyran­ni­cal regime maybe.

Tony  01:50

Who’s that guy? George Chris­tiansen? He was out today say­ing that if “well, if, if an unvac­ci­nat­ed play­er can come into the coun­try, then we should just open the bor­ders to all unvac­ci­nat­ed peo­ple.”

Cameron  02:00

Because open­ing our state bor­ders has been such, it was such a great idea. Every­thing’s going so well. New South Wales’ econ­o­my is doing so well right now, I believe.

Tony  02:10

To be in WA at the moment, hey?

Cameron  02:12

Yes!

Tony  02:13

That’s the real­ly stu­pid thing about it is because it’s not, there’s no lock­downs, well, no gov­ern­ment man­dat­ed lock­downs, there’s no sup­port.

Cameron  02:20

Yeah.

Tony  02:20

So, you know, the local busi­ness­es which can’t get staff because they’re quar­an­ti­ning are just going broke. And no one wants to go out any­where because of Omi­cron,

Cameron  02:30

Yeah, self imposed lock­down, as they say. Any­way, we don’t need to tell every­one what’s going on. Every­one knows what’s going on.

Tony  02:36

Yeah.

Cameron  02:37

Let’s talk about more pos­i­tive things, like the shock deci­sion by the Indone­sian gov­ern­ment to sus­pend some ther­mal coal exports to guar­an­tee domes­tic sup­ply, which, accord­ing to the ABC a cou­ple of days ago could have a flow on effect for Aus­tralian min­ers locked out of the Chi­nese mar­ket. I read this and thought should we be pay­ing extra atten­tion to our coal stocks, Tony?

Tony  03:01

Well, have you read today’s finan­cial review, Cam?

Cameron  03:05

I did read it, very ear­ly this morn­ing, yeah. What did it have to say?

Tony  03:09

The Indone­sian gov­ern­men­t’s back­flipped and they’re now allow­ing exports again.

Cameron  03:12

Oh, Indone­sia.

Tony  03:16

Yeah, fun­ni­ly enough, the local min­ing indus­try and some of their neigh­bours who need the coal put some pres­sure on in the Indone­sian gov­ern­ment and they, they fold­ed like a cheap suit.

Cameron  03:28

Right. Oh, well, so much for that plan, then?

Tony  03:34

Well, the coal price — I did check the coal price based on that, and it has, has ticked up again, so it is slow­ly improv­ing. It fell off a cliff a few months ago, but it’s still a buy sig­nal, so I’m not gonna take any­thing off the buy list. But no, I don’t think Indone­sia is hav­ing a dra­mat­ic effect on the coal price at the moment.

Cameron  03:55

Well, I’ll tell you what is being dra­mat­ic at the moment, is our stock tip from last week. No, no. When was it? Oh, a few weeks ago? 13th of Decem­ber, GWR. Iron ore and gold min­er, I think, is that right? Iron ore and gold, does that sound right?

Tony  04:13

I think so. Def­i­nite­ly iron ore, yeah.

Cameron  04:15

“Iron ore pro­duc­er with an eye on strate­gic min­er­als and advanced gold pro­duc­tion,” accord­ing to their web­site. Very flashy web­site. We rec­om­mend­ed — was one of our stock tips on the 13th of Decem­ber. Oh, only 67%. It was up 83% when I looked ear­li­er, it must have come back. It’s up what?

Tony  04:34

Right. And it was up a lot today too, up 20% today.

Cameron  04:38

Oh, only 5% accord­ing to Google Finance.

Tony  04:40

Okay, it was up…

Cameron  04:41

Yeah. I think it was up and then it came back, yeah.

Tony  04:43

Again, had a cur­so­ry look at it. I think what’s hap­pen­ing is, I saw an announce­ment to say they’ve turned, well, they start­ed min­ing again at C4, which is one of their mines. And it looks to me like they must be just a mar­gin­al pro­duc­er because when the iron ore price came down they stopped min­ing and now it’s, sort of, going back up again slight­ly any­way. They’ve, they’ve recom­menced min­ing at the mine. So, this hap­pens in the com­mod­i­ty cycle; you get mar­gin­al pro­duc­ers who will only real­ly make mon­ey when the price is you know, above aver­age. So, this looks like one of those stocks and as soon as the spear gets turned on the share price goes up.

Cameron  05:21

Did you buy it when we rec­om­mend­ed it?

Tony  05:23

No, it’s too small.

Cameron  05:24

Yeah, not too small for me, but my port­fo­lio was…

Tony  05:26

Oh, you bought it?

Cameron  05:27

No no, my port­fo­lio’s full. I could­n’t buy it for my Super fund, any­way. But yeah no, it’s a damn shame. It’s up 70% in a cou­ple of weeks, that would have been nice. But it’s been good for our Navexa port­fo­lio, because we did add it to our dum­my port­fo­lio, and we obvi­ous­ly put it out as a stock tip so it’s helped our stock tip track record look extra good. And gave our dum­my port­fo­lio a real kick in the pants in a good way, a good kick in the pants if there is such a thing.

Tony  06:01

I’m not going to say much about Navexa today, I just need to get my head around their report­ing at the moment.

Cameron  06:06

Have we giv­en up on that? I think we’ve kind of giv­en up try­ing to under­stand it. Isn’t it? It’s like…

Tony  06:11

I think so.

Cameron  06:12

Tony sent me an email just ear­li­er say­ing if you look at Navex­a’s report­ing for, well, any peri­od real­ly since incep­tion or the finan­cial year, it tells us our, the val­ue of our port­fo­lio is one fig­ure. But if you look at the report for the last sev­en days, it gives us a com­plete­ly dif­fer­ent and much less­er val­ue of the port­fo­lio, not growth or any­thing, but total val­ue of the port­fo­lio drops by 10% if you look at the sev­en-day report. We can’t fig­ure that out for the life of us.

Tony  06:41

It could be div­i­dends, like one might just be show­ing us the cap­i­tal growth or the invest­ed amount in the port­fo­lio and the oth­er one’s show­ing that plus div­i­dends, but I’m not sure. I haven’t been able to rec­on­cile it. But it’s, yeah, it’s not mak­ing much sense. But hav­ing said that, what did they send out? The top three movers for the week in our port­fo­lio. So, GWR was the top mover at 35.7%. KIL, our good old Kan­ga­roo Island tim­ber, which is now called Kiland or some­thing like that is 6.23%. And — but we did suf­fer a loss with PRU, which is down 4.6%. They’re the movers and shak­ers from the Navexa port­fo­lio.

Cameron  07:18

And I sold CGF out of our Navexa port­fo­lio last night because it had breached its sell line. But I haven’t replaced it with any­thing yet.

Tony  07:28

Oh, I sent you an email say­ing FEX.

Cameron  07:31

Oh, okay, good. Thanks.

Tony  07:33

Yeah, so I went down the list and I think Thorn Group was the top, the top of our buy list, but it’s a Josephine at the moment. So was the next stock, which from mem­o­ry was MML. And then we had the next one, I think, and then we got to FEX after that. But if you haven’t sold Chal­lenger, I think it’s actu­al­ly back above its buy line today, or it was at lunchtime when I had a look.

Cameron  07:53

I did in fact sell it yes­ter­day.

Tony  07:55

Okay.

Cameron  07:56

Sor­ry about that.

Tony  07:57

That’s okay. Add FEX in.

Cameron  08:00

FEX. Alright, well, I will do that now.

Tony  08:02

Yeah, I think it’s Fenix from mem­o­ry, Fenix iron, anoth­er iron ore com­pa­ny.

Cameron  08:07

And our stocks of the week this week were ANZ and COG.

Tony  08:12

Yes. Well, we’ve talked about COG before, but prob­a­bly had ANZ — we’ve def­i­nite­ly had ANZ on the buy list but I don’t think we’ve talked about it, so I’ll do a pulled pork on ANZ in a lit­tle bit. The oth­er inter­est­ing thing, like, it’s kind of the reverse of CGF because it was on our buy list when I did the buy list on the week­end, but now it’s back off again today. It’s about a cent below its buy price, I think.

Cameron  08:34

Right. I think I did say in my report on it on Mon­day that it was pret­ty close, so peo­ple should keep an eye on it.

Tony  08:41

Yeah, right. Okay.

Cameron  08:43

Do you want to talk about ANZ, now?

Tony  08:45

Oh, I was just, yeah, I’ve got a few oth­er things to talk about first. So, I’m gonna talk about the buy list. So, just in case — I mean, peo­ple should check the buy list them­selves or do a down­load when they’re ready, but a few of the notable moves; CLX and TBR, MTO, just came off the buy list this week. CLX and TBR came off, MTO just came off, and CTP and Aur­i­zon, AZJ, came on to the buy list, so a cou­ple of big stocks there that peo­ple, if peo­ple need that, but cer­tain­ly ones that we’ve men­tioned before, CLX, TBR com­ing off, MTO motor­cy­cle — MTO is motor­cy­cle traders, I think — CTP, Cen­tral Petro­le­um, and Aur­i­zon going on, so few moves there if peo­ple are inter­est­ed. The oth­er thing is, to talk about is, we are com­ing into con­fes­sion sea­son because report­ing sea­son will start offi­cial­ly first of Feb, but in earnest prob­a­bly a week or two after that. So, we’re prob­a­bly three weeks away from report­ing sea­son, so it’s a good time to stay close to read­ing the AFR, stay on top of your alerts, because this is the kind of time when if a com­pa­ny comes out with a news announce­ment it could change the stock price dra­mat­i­cal­ly either way, real­ly. So, it’s some­thing to watch out for. Alright, stock of the week. ANZ.

Cameron  09:59

Nev­er heard of them. Who are they, Tony? What, what is this thing you call ANZ?

Tony  10:04

Aus­tralia New Zealand Bank­ing Group, and every­one will know who ANZ is if you’re an Aus­tralian lis­ten­er, or a New Zealand lis­ten­er, one of the big four. Cou­ple of things that peo­ple may have, may have missed if they weren’t read­ing the Fin Review over Christ­mas. There is some spec­u­la­tion around that the, I guess well respect­ed CEO, Mr. Elliott, may retire in 2022. He will have been there I think for six or sev­en years by then. He was brought in, I think he may have been the CFO, Shane Elliott — uh, Shayne Elliott? I think it’s Shayne Elliott — before tak­ing on the CEO role, then spent most of his ear­ly tenure unrav­el­ling the pri­or CEO’s expan­sion into Asia, which had some mixed suc­cess. So, he brought all of that cap­i­tal back where it was earn­ing a bet­ter return in the Aus­tralian fran­chis­es. And then dur­ing the Hayne Com­mis­sion, I think prob­a­bly out of the CEOs of the banks, prob­a­bly did okay, or the best in terms of you know, he always was very, quite, hum­ble, and was lis­ten­ing to what the, what Mr Hayne was say­ing, rather than — which was not always the case with some of the bank CEOs who, and some chair peo­ple who some­times got a bit bol­shy with the Hayne Roy­al Com­mis­sion, much to their detri­ment. I guess that’s by the by, a CEO change can cause volatil­i­ty in a com­pa­ny’s share price, and this could all be nine months down the track, but I do raise it as prob­a­bly one of the impend­ing issues for ANZ. it can cause the share price to be volatile for a cou­ple of rea­sons; if they pro­mote from with­in, then chances are the peo­ple who were on the list and thought they may have got the gig may get upset and leave, which could cause some reor­gan­i­sa­tions in the man­age­ment, if not the busi­ness units, but if they employ some­one from out­side that could have a sur­prise effect, good or bad on the stock price. Most times good, but can go either way. But either way, whether they employ­ee from with­in or from with­out, often­times a new CEO will spend the first sort of three months work­ing out how to best posi­tion the com­pa­ny for them­selves — and I’m being a bit cyn­i­cal here — but I’ve often seen a new CEO come in and take lots of write-downs, blame it on the last guy, and real­ly clean up the bal­ance sheet so that they can put a floor under their options going for­ward and make sure they make the most mon­ey out of all their incen­tives. That’s prob­a­bly their only oppor­tu­ni­ty to clean decks, if you like, and shake out the skele­tons, and take all the pro­vi­sion­ing that the last guy may not have want­ed to because it would have affect­ed the share price. So, the share prices can often go down soon after a CEO is replaced, but not always. So, just an obser­va­tion and some­thing to be aware of if you’re think­ing of invest­ing in ANZ. The busi­ness itself, I mean, it’s one of the big four banks; every one of the big four banks real­ly has a spe­cial­ty, like a strength com­pared to the oth­ers, and in ANZ’s case there’s a cou­ple. They are the biggest New Zealand Bank, which is a big mon­ey spin­ner for them. They are big in cred­it cards, and always have been, main­ly because of the Qan­tas Fre­quent Fly­er pro­gramme which they’ve been linked to for a long time. So, there are a cou­ple of strengths and their strength is still in the Asia-Pacif­ic region, par­tic­u­lar­ly the Pacif­ic region. So, they still have prob­a­bly a big­ger mar­ket share in cer­tain juris­dic­tions over­seas than their com­peti­tors. So, they’re the strengths of ANZ. I think it’s com­ing onto our buy list now prob­a­bly because it’s the cheap­est of the, of the big four banks. Cer­tain­ly, on a PE ratio basis, it’s the low­est of the big four and I’ll get into the num­bers in a minute. But, I raise this because there’s been like a, I guess, a short­hand way of invest­ing in banks on the ASX for a long time, and that’s basi­cal­ly just to invest in the, in the bank with the low­est PE ratio. And that way, you’re always kind of buy­ing the bank with the biggest val­ue and as it sort of cycles up in share price and the PE rais­es, you sell it and you buy some­thing else with the low­est PE, because big four banks are not a whole lot of dif­fer­en­ti­a­tion between them. So, in some respects it does­n’t mat­ter which one you buy, but rel­a­tive­ly it does and and buy­ing the cheap­est PE’s always been a good sort of way to invest in the banks and real­ly the ASX in gen­er­al going for­ward. There are these sort of short­hand ways that the expe­ri­enced oper­a­tors get to know over time doing things like what they call pairs trade. So, if you indus­try like bank­ing, if you like the, if you want to buy the bank with the low­est PE, then you might want to short the bank with the high­est PE and so you ben­e­fit from that cycli­cal sort of rerat­ing of stocks. And the high­est PE bank is Comm­Bank at the moment, and there’s a ques­tion com­ing up lat­er on about Comm­Bank went down in the last quar­ter — and I think prob­a­bly one of the rea­sons for that is because it’s the high­est PE of the banks and so peo­ple do kind of trade out of the high PE bank into the low PE bank. Yeah, so that’s by the by, but again, like buy­ing list­ed invest­ment com­pa­nies when there’s a gap to their NTA, like buy­ing the top 20 stock which has the biggest gap between its cur­rent share price and it’s IV 2, they’re all kind of short­hand ways of invest­ing, espe­cial­ly if you don’t have much time to look at it, and buy­ing the bank with the low­est PE’s anoth­er one of those. Any­way, that’s, I guess, back­ground infor­ma­tion for the num­bers and I’m doing my analy­sis based on the down­load I did on Sun­day, when the price was $28.40. The buy price at that time was $28.10, but as I said, last time I had a look, it was about a cent or two below that. So, if it does­n’t turn up again this might be a moot exer­cise, but still worth doing I think just to run through the num­bers on ANZ. It’ll prob­a­bly come back on the buy list I would think. The oth­er thing to men­tion about the big four banks is their yield, and ANZ’s no excep­tion. So, it’s cur­rent­ly yield­ing 5.06%, and it’s ful­ly franked, and if you gross that up it’s 7.23%. So, if you’re a retiree with a mil­lion dol­lars and want to live off the income, putting it into ANZ means you’ll, you’ll pick up $72,000 a year after tax, espe­cial­ly if you’re in a, like a self-man­aged Super­fund where you’re get­ting a full rebate for the frank­ing cred­it. So, the big four banks tra­di­tion­al­ly have been well sup­port­ed by retirees, and that’s prob­a­bly still going on today I would think based on those num­bers. To go through the num­bers, ANZ is a large aver­age dai­ly trans­ac­tion stock, as you’d expect; $134 mil­lion is trad­ed on aver­age every day in it, so very, very big. It’s QAV score is 0.36, so that’s also quite high, espe­cial­ly for large cap stock. And it will be get­ting pret­ty close to the top of our buy list with that kind of score. And a qual­i­ty score of only 64%, though, and that’s prob­a­bly the, the area to focus in on. To go through the num­bers, it’s slight­ly under the con­sen­sus tar­get, so that gets a one for us. It’s a bor­der­line Star Growth stock in Stock Doc­tor and it’s a Star Income stock, so both of those score 0.5 in our check­list. So, it gets a score of 1 for those two com­bined. It does have strong finan­cial health, as you’d expect, and it’s been steady for a while, so that’s, they’re both good things for our check­list. As I said before, it’s the low­est of the PEs for the big bank, it’s PE is 12 or 12.5. I think West­pac is just slight­ly high­er than that at around 13, but then Comm­Bank is up around 20. So, it’s, they’re good — both ANZ and West­pac are a long way behind Comm­Bank. And I think NAB has the high­est at the moment, but that’s prob­a­bly a bit anom­alous; its PE is well over 100, so it’s prob­a­bly just been going through some write-downs which are affect­ing its earn­ings, but I haven’t looked at NAB for a while, so I can’t real­ly say. The rea­son why it’s com­ing up well for us at the moment, though, is its prop cap is 1.81. So, it’s, it’s priced oper­at­ing cash flow is 1.81, which is very cheap. So, even though it’s qual­i­ty score’s only 64%, it scores well for us because of its val­ue dimen­sion. The cur­rent share price, how­ev­er, is greater than our IV1 but it’s less than our IV2, so it does score a point for that. It’s trad­ing around book val­ue, which is very inter­est­ing for a big com­pa­ny like this. So, net equi­ty per share is $22.81, and book plus 30 is $29.66, and with the share price in the sort of low 28s, we can buy this for less than 30% plus books. So, this would be some­thing on the War­ren Buf­fett radar screen if he was invest­ing in Aus­tralia I would think. On the neg­a­tive side of things, though, the ana­lysts are pre­dict­ing a decrease in earn­ings per share of 5% next year, so that scores a ‑1 for us. And again, that’s a pre­dic­tion so who knows how that will play out. But that’s what they’re pre­dict­ing. The yield as I said before is good, cer­tain­ly above the bank rate. It’s the old adage of invest­ing in Aus­tralia is “don’t put your mon­ey in the bank, buy their stock instead”, because the yield is much high­er than the, the term deposit rate from the bank itself. So, yield scores well for us. And it did, as I said, it did cross over on the week­end and gets a point for a new upturn. That’ll have to lose, we’ll lose that point though, if it does con­tin­ue to stay below its buy line, obvi­ous­ly. Equi­ty in the bank is not con­sis­tent­ly grow­ing, though, so it does­n’t score for that, and it’s not the low­est PE in the last three years so it does­n’t score for that either. And obvi­ous­ly, it does­n’t have an own­er-founder — the bank was found­ed over 100 years ago — so no score for that. So, qual­i­ty score is only 9/14, which is not the high­est but cer­tain­ly gets onto our buy list because of the price to oper­at­ing cash flow. So, that’s the num­bers for ANZ. A cou­ple of oth­er thoughts about the busi­ness itself, and again, this is get­ting into the sto­ry and the issues rather than the num­bers, but just for some thought starters for peo­ple who are think­ing of invest­ing, if you look at the share price graph for ANZ it’s pret­ty much com­plet­ed its recov­ery from the COVID cough and that’s where all the big gains were made in the Aus­tralian banks, and it’s back to sort of that same trend­line that was before the orig­i­nal COVID down­turn in March a cou­ple of years ago. And it’s on a sort of gen­tly slop­ing decline, so it’ll be inter­est­ing to see what the share price does from here, whether it sticks to that trend or whether it does con­tin­ue with its up, up turn. And Omi­cron obvi­ous­ly may still cause it prob­lems. I sus­pect with large increas­es in prop­er­ty prices, espe­cial­ly home prop­er­ty prices in the last 12 months or so, they should be reduc­ing stress on the loan book for ANZ. And you would think, you know, again, who knows with COVID what comes around the cor­ner, but you think that reduc­ing stress on the loan book is always a good thing for a bank and they’ll prob­a­bly take low­er pro­vi­sions for bad and doubt­ful debts, and poten­tial­ly even start to write some of those back from their cur­rent bal­ance sheet. So, we may see some improve­ment from here just based on that alone. So that’s, that’s ANZ bank, Cam.

Cameron  20:52

Alrighty. Yeah, well, I just checked the blog post I did for it on Mon­day, I did say that it could drop back below its sell line, not the buy line. But yeah, it’s dropped, I don’t know how far it is from its sell line today, but it was just above that, too. So…

Tony  21:08

Oh, okay, yeah, they’re pret­ty close. They’re both very sim­i­lar at the moment, in terms of price, yeah.

Cameron  21:12

Just also I made a note just to make sure that peo­ple payed atten­tion. I also made a note in the blog post; COG, our small-cap stock of the week is actu­al­ly a Josephine — just bare­ly — I think the pre­vi­ous month close was $1.50, and it was trad­ing at $1.46. I did say that, tech­ni­cal­ly, we prob­a­bly would­n’t buy it until it showed us an uptick, but you know, peo­ple can make their own deci­sions about Josephine’s, etc. Just try­ing to bring up the Bret­te­la­tor and see where it is today, but the Bret­te­la­tor’s wig­ging out on me, Google Finance, etc., etc. Okay, a cou­ple of oth­er things I just thought I’d men­tioned to peo­ple if you’ve signed up to Stock Doc­tor in the last three or four weeks, because we announced around about the mid­dle of last month that Stock Doc­tor was build­ing a QAV fil­ter, and com­ing out with it. Appar­ent­ly, few of our, few of our new sub­scribers, club mem­bers, have con­tact­ed me in say­ing well, they went ahead and signed up to Stock Doc­tor and then found out the fil­ter had­n’t, the QAV fil­ter had­n’t been launched. Stock Doc­tor told me it was, it would be ready on a cer­tain day and then appar­ent­ly it was­n’t, and then Stock Doc­tor sent peo­ple the list of the fil­ters, but they were wrong. Stock Doc­tor got it wrong. I’d sent them the list and appar­ent­ly, they, I don’t know, human error. So, I apol­o­gise for any­one that hap­pened to, and for any­one who has­n’t noticed, just, if you did sign up to Stock Doc­tor and they had the pre-built QAV fil­ter in there, just go in and check it against the Bible’s fil­ter list. Check that the GICS clas­si­fi­ca­tion is cor­rect, and I think it was EPS fore­cast was miss­ing from the list that they were send­ing to a cou­ple of peo­ple. So, just go and check that. I mean, if you’ve tried to use it, it would­n’t work any­way, because it would­n’t be able to cut and paste into the check­list. So, you’ll quick­ly find out that some­thing is rot­ten in Den­mark. Also, Ali asked on Face­book the oth­er day, Tony, how often we should be updat­ing our sell alerts in Stock Doc­tor, and I told her that I tend to do it at the begin­ning of every month. Just the habit I’ve been into since the last time you remind­ed me that we should do that. Oh, COG is $1.45 today, so it’s still a Josephine. Well, I thought I just check with you. How often do you do your sell alerts?

Tony  23:39

Yeah, I’m pret­ty ad hoc about it, Cam, I don’t do it in a dis­ci­plined way. First of all, I only raise them if I’ve done a buy list for the stocks I’m inter­est­ed in — which is prob­a­bly only about twen­ty or so on the buy list — and then they have to be with­in, say, 20% of their sell line, and then I’ll raise a sell alert for them, or a buy alert if they’re get­ting close to their buys. And I’ll, I’ll update those, yeah, just in an ad hoc basis, real­ly, I don’t do it in any sort of method­i­cal way. Gen­er­al­ly, I find over the course of a month or a lit­tle bit longer than that maybe that I’ve checked those twen­ty stocks for some oth­er rea­son any­way, and I can update them then. And that’s because I’ve read some­thing about them in an arti­cle in the paper or they’ve come up on one of the lists, like the top movers of a day or some­thing like that list­ed in the AFR, and then I’ll go and have a look at them.

Cameron  24:29

You’re talk­ing about buy alerts or sell alerts, though?

Tony  24:32

Both.

Cameron  24:33

So, for the stocks in your port­fo­lio. Again, I assume you only real­ly both­er set­ting an alert if they look like they might be head­ing in the wrong direc­tion.

Tony  24:43

Cor­rect.

Cameron  24:44

I do the same thing. I mean, I’ll take a quick look if they’re, if they’re way, way, way above their sell price I won’t wor­ry about it, but for the ones that are you know, I’ll do it sort of month­ly. Okay, cool. You got any­thing else you want to talk about before we get into Q&A?

Tony  24:59

That’s prob­a­bly good advice too, Cam, to do it month­ly, because as the month rolls over in the graph it can change the sell price as well.

Cameron  25:06

Yeah, I’m always sort of sur­prised when I’m going through it how not all of them have changed by a great deal but prob­a­bly a third to a half the sell prices are a lot high­er than they were the pre­vi­ous month. Par­tic­u­lar­ly if they’ve been in a steep incline since the COVID cough or in the last six months.

Tony  25:26

Actu­al­ly, one that sur­prised me recent­ly, I was going through look­ing at gold when I did the buy list on the week­end, and I remem­ber some­time last year I high­light­ed the fact that gold was get­ting close to a sell. And I think the sell price back then was about $1750, $1760 US dol­lars an ounce. And the gold price is back up around a sort of high $17s-$18,000s. But the sell price has dropped as well, because the graphs are just, even though the mov­ing side­ways have moved on a num­ber of months since then. So, I think the sell price is now about $1600 US an ounce.

Cameron  25:59

Good. Any­thing else before we get into some ques­tions?

Tony  26:02

No, let’s hit the ques­tions.

Cameron  26:04

We only have a cou­ple of ques­tions this week, so it’s going to be a short show. Short show is a good show.

Tony  26:09

We can, we can talk about after hours for anoth­er hour after­wards. If you like, or…

Cameron  26:17

First ques­tion is from Michael: “inter­est­ed in Tony’s thoughts on NTD’s SPP” at the nation­al tire and dish­wa­ter… nation­al tyre dis­trib­u­tors, I think it is? I can’t remem­ber, what is it, NTD? Nation­al Tyre, Tyre and Wheel Lim­it­ed? I don’t know why there’s a D in their code. And on SPPs in gen­er­al, ie whether to par­tic­i­pate in them. I did send Michael, he asked this on Face­book, I did send him a link to some­thing you’d said before — anoth­er show — where we’ve talked about SPPs, because it comes up as a share pur­chase plan for folks that are new to invest­ing basi­cal­ly, as I under­stand it, when if you own shares in a com­pa­ny and the com­pa­ny says “hey, we want to raise some cap­i­tal, we’re going to do you a spe­cial deal because you’re in, you’re an insid­er, you already own stock, and we’re gonna offer you shares at, at a dis­count­ed price.” Is that basi­cal­ly what an SPP is?

Tony  27:15

Yeah, very much so. Often­times the retail SPP will hap­pen after the instos have been asked to buy new shares, so that is the case with NTD. So, they used those, I think bought about $9 mil­lion at a dis­count­ed price, and now the board is mak­ing that same offer to the retail share­hold­ers, although they expect to raise less. They’ll raise about 3 mil­lion, I think they’re ask­ing for, from retail share­hold­ers.

Cameron  27:40

Right. And a retail share­hold­er is just some­body who’s not part of a fund man­ag­er or a bank or some­thing?

Tony  27:47

Yeah, or a large share­hold­er. And that’s prob­a­bly a ques­tion we should high­light to indi­vid­u­als, is you can get in on insti­tu­tion­al offers if you are classed as a pro­fes­sion­al investor, and that your accoun­tant will need to sign off on that and give it to your stock­bro­ker. And the rules cur­rent­ly are, from mem­o­ry, you’ve got to have an income of 250,000 or more, or have I think it’s $2 mil­lion in assets out­side your fam­i­ly home. So, that obvi­ous­ly won’t suit all our lis­ten­ers, but there might be some out there who aren’t aware of that. And for the sim­ple cost of get­ting your accoun­tant to right a let­ter and say “yep, that’s, you know, I fall into that cat­e­go­ry” and you give it to your stock­bro­ker, you will get it onto those, those deals when the instos are offered. First dibs are new share SPPs.

Cameron  28:35

Does that income have to come from invest­ing or just income more broad­ly?

Tony  28:39

Just income, so you could be like a wage earn­er earn­ing that kind of mon­ey.

Cameron  28:43

And to get your accoun­tant to write that let­ter, is it like get­ting our lawyers to write a let­ter when we start­ed the show? It’s gonna cost about $10,000. Does that…

Tony  28:52

Seemed to be the case with Price Water­house Coop­ers when I did it with them recent­ly, although we moved away from using them as our accoun­tants. But no, it should just be like a cou­ple hun­dred bucks, they will have done it many times before. And if they’re doing your tax returns they’ll know exact­ly what your finan­cial pro­file is, so just, you know, pull out the tem­plate and sign it.

Cameron  29:11

And so the advan­tage then is you can get in before retail investors on these, and it maybe at a bet­ter, bet­ter deal, some­times?

Tony  29:19

It’s often­times the same deal, but you’ll get in when, like, there are com­pa­nies out there who don’t make the same offer to retail share­hold­ers for what­ev­er rea­son. And like dur­ing things like the COVID cough and the GFC, boards are under pres­sure to act quick­ly, and so they might just lit­er­al­ly put out a notice on Fri­day say­ing we want peo­ple to take up new shares so we need to raise, raise cap­i­tal to repair our bal­ance sheet. And by Mon­day, it’s closed. So, you get in on those kinds of deals, and you also — cap­i­tal rais­ing is prob­a­bly the main one but some­times… yeah, no cap­i­tal is anoth­er form of, I was gonna say anoth­er thing about cap­i­tal rais­ing, but yeah. So, basi­cal­ly, if you need to raise cap­i­tal from a retail share­hold­er, you have to go out with a prospec­tus. And we talked about cleans­ing notices last week, which is a short form prospec­tus, which could be the case, in some instances. I haven’t looked into the MTD share pur­chase plan in detail, but it prob­a­bly does have some form of prospec­tus behind it. And that’s one of the rea­sons why com­pa­nies can shy away from doing it, because it’s, it’s a cost, it’s a legal cost to put a prospec­tus togeth­er, to raise less mon­ey from the retail share­hold­ers then they could be rais­ing from the Insto and sophis­ti­cat­ed investors, share­hold­ers. So, there’s that. There’s often­times, if you get onto that kind of list, you might just get a phone call from the share bro­ker say­ing, you know, “so and so’s sell­ing a block of trade, are you inter­est­ed in buy­ing some and putting togeth­er, you know, a list of peo­ple who want to bid for it?” So, yeah, you’re start­ing to play more in the fund man­ag­er world than you are in the retail world.

Cameron  30:55

Right. And so, do you have any par­tic­u­lar thoughts on the NTD SPP?

Tony  31:01

Well, bloody good, bloody good buy. So, Michael, if you own NTD, con­grat­u­la­tions. I’m look­ing at the share price graph now. I’m not sure what the price was when it was on our buy list and we were rec­om­mend­ing it, but from the COVID Cough it was like, I think it closed at 25 cents at its low point and it’s $1.60 today, so great rise. And since they’ve announced the share pur­chase plan, which is, is rais­ing mon­ey for a lot of dif­fer­ent things, but pri­mar­i­ly to buy anoth­er busi­ness called Carters — just a fun­ny name for anoth­er com­pa­ny in the tyre and wheel area. But any­way, they’re buy­ing Carters, so obvi­ous­ly peo­ple think that’s a great idea. Yeah, so it’s a no brain­er. In this par­tic­u­lar case, you’re, you’re being offered shares at $1.35 and they’re cur­rent­ly $1.60. So, you’re mak­ing easy mon­ey straight­away. Not always the case with share pur­chase plans, and we’ve spo­ken about this before. So, that’s kind of rule, the first rule of share pur­chase plans; if I buy the shares, am I in the mon­ey? And you’ve got to take into account dilu­tion, because once the share pur­chase plan is done and dust­ed, there’ll be more shares, and the share price may come back because of that, to reflect dilu­tion. And in this case, though, I think they’re, they’re rais­ing, as I said before, 9 mil­lion, or they’ve already raised 9 mil­lion from instos, they’re rais­ing 3 mil­lion from retail. So, 12 mil­lion in total, the mar­ket cap is around 185 mil­lion, so there’s only a dilu­tion of about 6.5%, which is not, not too bad, it may not even affect the share price giv­en that it’s going up so strong­ly now. But any­way, what I’d nor­mal­ly say is that based on the cur­rent share price, and based on the offer price, you’re going to make 18.5% and there­fore you can eas­i­ly afford to suf­fer the 6.5% dilu­tion should it occur. So, this is mon­ey for jam, basi­cal­ly. A cou­ple of things to be wary of, and I said before rule one was to see if you’re in the mon­ey: don’t go in from day one for a share pur­chase plan, they often take a month or so to run and they often have claus­es in them like you can buy shares, in this case at $1.35, but some­times they also have anoth­er clause which says, or a dis­count of 5% to the weight­ed aver­age cost of the shares or weight­ed aver­age price of the shares in the last five days before the share pur­chase plan clos­es. So, often pays to hold off until the last week and just see whether the deal improves, you know, if the share price for NTD was $1.30, then it’s an even bet­ter deal, right? Although you prob­a­bly would­n’t buy because you’re not going to make mon­ey just based on the offer price. But in some cas­es, the wait­ing till the end is a good idea. A, you see where the share price fin­ish­es up and B, you can see what the offer is; is it going to be bet­ter to buy the — are you going to take the offer that they’ve giv­en you in terms of $1.35 share price, or the aver­age dis­count for the last week of trad­ing? So, that’s anoth­er thing to look out for. In gen­er­al, some­thing else to bear in mind is that often­times share pur­chase plans get scaled back. So, because this is such an attrac­tive deal that’s being offered by NTD to its retail share­hold­ers, you might find that they want to raise $3 mil­lion, but they might get $6 mil­lion in appli­ca­tions. And then they don’t, the board will either say “well, we’ll take the extra 3 mil­lion, and there’s even more dilu­tion to the share price.” Or, they’ll say “no, we’ll scale every­one back and give them half what they applied for.” Which means that if you’ve sent them $30,000 today, you might get $15,000 back in a mon­th’s time when every­thing’s done and dust­ed, and they’ve had your mon­ey for a while, but you haven’t had the use of that mon­ey. So, just bear that in mind too. And I’ve cer­tain­ly been in share pur­chase plans and applied for the max and then got­ten, you know, 10% of what I asked for and so my mon­ey’s been tied up for a month or so doing noth­ing real­ly. So, that’s some­thing else to be aware of. What else? And the last, last point I’ll prob­a­bly make in gen­er­al is that again, this is an exam­ple of weigh­ing up your options for allo­ca­tion of cap­i­tal, are you bet­ter off putting 30,000 into the share pur­chase plan or are you bet­ter off buy­ing some­thing high­er up on the buy list? So, you’ve got to way those two things up. But giv­en this seems like such a com­pelling deal, and it’s like an 18.5% return in a month, it’s prob­a­bly going to be bet­ter than what­ev­er else is on the buy list, so I’d be tak­ing up the share pur­chase plan offer now.

Cameron  35:23

Please don’t take this as finan­cial advice, go see a reg­is­tered finan­cial plan­ner before you make any invest­ing deci­sions. But that’s what Tony would do.

Tony  35:34

Yeah, you’re right sor­ry. I should­n’t, it’s not a rec­om­men­da­tion for Michael. I don’t know his cir­cum­stances. But I do think this is a com­pelling offer for peo­ple and, and well done to Michael for hold­ing NTD when it’s improved so much.

Cameron  35:45

The last time it was your stock of the week was in mid-Jan­u­ary 2021, about a year ago when it was just north of $1.

Tony  35:56

So, 60% in 12 months.

Cameron  35:58

It dropped, prompt­ly dropped, of course, because it was just stock of the week, down to 82 cents by the end of March.

Tony  36:06

100% in a Year.

Cameron  36:08

Then it went up. Then it dou­bles, yeah, yeah. Of course, peo­ple would have rule 1’d it on the way down.

Tony  36:15

Shook out all the rule 1s.

Cameron  36:17

Yeah, it was the right call just a cou­ple of weeks ear­ly. You could’ve left it a cou­ple of weeks. Alright, good. So, that’s SPPs. Dun­can asks, “why has CBA crept back to near its peak giv­en that there’s been no price sen­si­tive announce­ment since its fall from grace a few weeks ago? I see it is on the buy list this week,” this is prob­a­bly last week — oh no, might have been this week, “but is it worth a punt again? Would TK buy it again?”

Tony  36:47

Yeah well, Dun­can, I would. It’s back on the buy list. It’s a qual­i­ty com­pa­ny. It’s a large-cap com­pa­ny. So, lots to, to rec­om­mend it to peo­ple to invest in. Again, it’s not going to be as high up on the buy list as ANZ because the PE’s 20 odd, it’s the high­est PE of the retail banks, or the big four retail banks in Aus­tralia. So, that’s going to be an issue for it. Prob­a­bly the rea­son — the thing to focus on is not so much why it’s get­ting back up to where it was, but why did it drop. And all I can think of is that it did put out a quar­ter three update, which I can see in Stock Doc­tor — if peo­ple are inter­est­ed, they can go on to Stock Doc­tor, look up the com­pa­ny announce­ments and look at the price sen­si­tive com­pa­ny announce­ments and see how much the share price moves on the day of that announce­ment. And when they put out their quar­ter three earn­ings state­ment or a quar­ter three update, the share price dropped 8% that day, and it kept going for a bit more than that. I think that’s why it dropped in Novem­ber, I think it was from mem­o­ry, and it came off our buy list because of that. But I guess my point is that when you’re trad­ing on the high­est PE of any of the big banks, and your com­peti­tors are trad­ing at not quite half of what your val­u­a­tion is, you’re always going to be the most volatile of the banks and so it only takes some, not even bad news, but poten­tial­ly just mediocre news or news that does­n’t con­tain some kind of fab­u­lous earn­ings upgrade, some­thing like that, that the ana­lysts expect from a well-run com­pa­ny to send the stock price going low­er. If the PE is high and eval­u­a­tion is high. It’s kind of a mini ver­sion of what we’ve been say­ing about all the high PE stocks, the After­pays, and any­thing trad­ing at a hun­dred times. It does­n’t take much to make them drop. So, I think that’s what’s hap­pened with Comm­Bank. But I think, you know, the, the larg­er, longer term sto­ry is still very much intact with Comm­Bank. It has the largest retail fran­chise, and by that, I mean the biggest share of cus­tomers. It’s well run, it’s prob­a­bly lead­ing the way in terms of dig­i­ti­za­tion amongst all the big banks and the big — for peo­ple who don’t know the bank­ing indus­try that well, and I’m not say­ing I’m any sort of expert, but I’ve sort of been around the edges of it for a while — the big banks, their biggest prob­lem has been his­tor­i­cal­ly that they have such large lega­cy com­put­er sys­tems that it’s a huge cost and a huge risk and a huge dis­rup­tion to busi­ness to migrate to new plat­forms. And so, they’re, or the busi­ness IT plat­forms are very, very old, even though they’re, I’m not say­ing they’re not good, they’re cer­tain­ly very robust, which is prob­a­bly the most impor­tant thing for bank but cer­tain­ly not up to the likes of your start up fin­tech com­pa­nies. But Comm­Bank has done the most to address that posi­tion, and that’s one of the rea­sons why it trades on a high­er val­u­a­tion, is that peo­ple expect it to lead the way I guess in terms of com­pet­ing with the new fin­techs.

Cameron  39:29

Are they bol­shy bankers too, Tony?

Tony  39:32

I think they all are, Cam.

Cameron  39:34

I got­ta laugh at that. I’m try­ing to imag­ine Lenin and Trot­sky sit­ting down with these bankers and find­ing some com­mon ground in 1917.

Tony  39:46

You talk­ing about the com­ment about the Hayne Com­mis­sion?

Cameron  39:49

Yeah, I just I made a note try­ing to think of a title for the episode. You were like “bol­shie bankers” and I’m like, real­ly? Bol­shie bankers? I’ve nev­er thought about bankers being too bol­shie before.

Tony  40:01

The per­son I was think­ing about the most was the, the ex-chair­per­son of NAB, Mr. Hen­ry, who — Ken Hen­ry I think his name is — who went in on the front foot to Hayne. Where­as, Shayne Elliott from ANZ was very hum­ble and said, “yes, we’ve made mis­takes, and we’ll fix them,” which is the way to play that Roy­al Com­mis­sion, and then there were vary­ing degrees of that.

Cameron  40:20

Did­n’t the NAB CEO and Chair­man have to fall on their sword a lit­tle bit after that?

Tony  40:23

They did, yeah.

Cameron  40:25

Bol­shy. Oh dear. Okay. So, that’s CBA. Dun­can had anoth­er ques­tion, and I’ll allow it, Dun­can, see­ing as we don’t have many ques­tions this week: “lots of iron stocks seem to have breached their ear­li­er peak, but the com­mod­i­ty price is nowhere near its peak before its plunge. I think it was men­tioned a few weeks ago, but I won­der if Tony has any new insights on iron ore and iron stocks?”

Tony  40:52

I don’t, Dun­can, it’s, I’m still scratch­ing my head at FMG. I kind of agree with I guess what you’re think­ing, I’m assum­ing what you’re think­ing, but from my point of view, the com­pa­nies have recov­ered in their share prices to a large extent, but the iron ore price has­n’t. So, the iron ore price was up at $224 a tonne at one stage. And admit­ted­ly, FMG was a lit­tle bit high­er than what it is now, maybe 10–15% high­er than what it is now. But the iron ore price is nowhere near that high. It’s almost half of that. And yet the, the min­ers have returned back to those highs. So, I sus­pect there’s a bit of a, as often is the case with the mar­ket, a bit of a pen­du­lum going on here, they may have swung, the share prices for those com­pa­nies may have swung too far south when peo­ple sold out as the iron ore price was drop­ping, and now they’re prob­a­bly swing­ing a bit too far north as peo­ple are buy­ing back in because the iron ore price is steady. It does­n’t mean that FMG’s nec­es­sar­i­ly over­val­ued, it’s still on the buy list, and if I need to I’ll buy it, but it might go side­ways for a while, it might come might retrace after a while, might go up. We nev­er know. But, but yeah, I had the same sort of feel­ing about it all as you do. I think there’s a bit of FOMO going on here. Once the iron ore min­ers as a class start­ed to rise again, I think peo­ple thought “well, we bet­ter, bet­ter jump back in again.” Espe­cial­ly if you’re some­one like FMG, which is part of the index­es, if you’re an index man­ag­er who was smart enough to sell out when the price was going down, you’ve got to buy back in now to at least main­tain the index. Or if rather than being an index fund, if you’re some­one who mea­sures your­self against the index, you need to buy back in now to just not be left flat foot­ed. But that’s what I think’s going on, I’m not real­ly sure oth­er than that, and I have no more thoughts oth­er than that. There have been some arti­cles writ­ten about new, I think it’s called FFI, the future indus­tries part of FMG, where they’re start­ing to get into all sorts of hydro­gen, green hydro­gen and met­als that might be used by elec­tric vehi­cles and things like that. That’s the blue-sky part of FMG. They haven’t done a whole lot in real­i­ty, and nor would I think it would be prof­itable at the moment. So, that’s a wait and see. But that could be increas­ing the share price of FMG in par­tic­u­lar, but it does­n’t explain the oth­er ones like we spoke of ear­li­er today; FEX is on the rise, GWR is on the rise, CIA is on the rise. They’re all on the rise, and it’s, I think it’s just a bit of a sigh of relief from the mar­ket that the iron ore price has sta­bilised and they want to get back into the sec­tor. But often­times, the mar­ket works like a pen­du­lum, as I say, and we might be swing­ing a lit­tle bit too far to one side at the moment.

Tony  41:34

Swing­ing too far. You know what else all those stocks have in com­mon though, Tony, our stock tips of the week. They’ve all been a stock tip the week in the last month, so I think it’s the QAV effect there, Tony. Nor­mal­ly, stock tips of the week go down imme­di­ate­ly, but those have all gone up. FMG is up about 13% since I added it to my port­fo­lio again after you said that iron ore was a buy again, so that was only, what, 14th of Decem­ber, I bought it. It’s up 13% since then, so I’m a hap­py camper.

Tony  44:07

Yeah, good. I haven’t bought back into them because I’ve been wait­ing for some­thing to sell. But you know, I mean, to Dun­can’s point, I would­n’t have any trou­ble buy­ing them back again if I need to.

Cameron  44:16

I was gonna sug­gest it was just you push­ing the price up but appar­ent­ly not. Swoop­ing in.

Tony  44:23

No.

Cameron  44:24

Tay­lor sent me a clip of the equi­ty mates pod­cast on Tik­Tok, there’s some­thing they put up on Tik­Tok this week where they were plug­ging FMG as well. And I saw, I saw one big bro­ker­age firm call it a sell yes­ter­day, I saw in my news releas­es. So, any­way, guess there’s, that’s the mar­ket for you. Okay, so you can’t real­ly explain it. It’s just, it’s weird.

Tony  44:47

It’s the mar­ket doing what the mar­ket does.

Cameron  44:49

Yeah. But the mar­kets per­fect Tony, isn’t it? Like, all the lit­er­a­ture says per­fect infor­ma­tion. Every­thing is … effi­cient. Yes.

Tony  44:59

Effi­cient mar­ket the­o­ry, what a joke that was. The only peo­ple who made mon­ey out of effi­cient mar­ket the­o­ry were the pro­fes­sors push­ing the the­o­ry at the schools of eco­nom­ics.

Cameron  45:09

The con­sul­tants that came in after­wards. Well, I think that’s all we have for the show this week. I think that’s where we’ve run out of ques­tions. We’ve run out of stuff except for after hours. That’s about it.

Tony  45:25

Yeah. Okay. Well, we could cer­tain­ly do after hours. Is there any­thing else you want­ed to do that we, might be inter­est­ing for peo­ple? Or are you hap­py that we’ve spent enough time on stocks?

Cameron  45:34

Yeah, that’s 50 min­utes. That’s longer than I expect­ed we’d get today. I did­n’t think we’d make half an hour today with only two ques­tions but there you go.

Tony  45:44

Send your ques­tions in next week.

Cameron  45:46

Yeah, send in ques­tions. So, tell me what else you’ve been up to? What have you been doing for fun apart from golf down at Cape Schanck, TK?

Tony  45:53

Well Jen­ny’s been here, which is great. We’ve had Alex down for a week, which was love­ly as well, we were all gonna go back to Syd­ney for the fire­works on New Year’s Eve and have a par­ty at our place, but we put the kibosh on that when peo­ple start­ed pulling out and the cater­er was ask­ing us whether it was wise to do it dur­ing Omi­cron. So, we fin­ished up hun­ker­ing down here. Alex had­n’t seen Ted Las­so or the Get Back Bea­t­les series, so we watched those again from end to end, which were great. But yeah, just sort of sum­mer beach house stuff, lots of walks. Golf, jig­saws, Alex start­ed the jig­saw which I’m just fin­ish­ing now. I read, got giv­en Bar­ry Humphrey’s book, My life as Me, one of his auto­bi­ogra­phies for Christ­mas as a Kris Kringle. I think it’s actu­al­ly an old one. But I think Bar­ry also puts out a new auto­bi­og­ra­phy every five years and just adds to the last one. And they’re always great reads, I real­ly enjoy them and would rec­om­mend it. It’s called My Life as Me, was the one I read, but there’s prob­a­bly three oth­er dif­fer­ent ver­sions of it as well. But I would warn peo­ple to have a dic­tio­nary handy because he does like to use big words. That’s one of the ben­e­fits of read­ing the book is it’s a great launch­ing pad for art and for his­to­ry and for lit­er­a­ture and improv­ing your vocab­u­lary just to fol­low his tastes in dif­fer­ent things. So, so great read. I watched Don’t Look Up on Net­flix. Have you seen that?

Cameron  47:13

Not yet, it’s in our queue.

Tony  47:15

I real­ly enjoyed it. It’s pret­ty patchy, but very, very satir­i­cal. Very, very black, and I quite enjoy it. It’s always tough watch­ing an Amer­i­can satire, because it’s like, they don’t do it that well. And kind of like some­times I think the whole coun­try’s a satire already, so, try­ing to out-satirise them­selves is real­ly hard. But worth the watch. I thought it was great.

Cameron  47:36

Well, they did VEEP, which was real­ly good, but it was made by a British pro­duc­tion com­pa­ny and what­ev­er his name is.

Tony  47:45

Ian­nuc­ci.

Cameron  47:45

Ian­nuc­ci, yeah.

Tony  47:47

Ital­ian, in fact, isn’t he? Rather than — well he comes from Britain, I sup­pose.

Cameron  47:49

Arman­do Ian­nuc­ci? Yeah, I don’t know.

Tony  47:51

But yeah, so I reck­on it’s worth a look. It’s just fun­ny. I mean, just the premise of it. I won’t, I won’t spoil it, but the comets head­ing to Earth and they man­aged to divide it along polit­i­cal lines and one half of the pop­u­la­tion keeps going “a comet’s com­ing to Earth!” and the oth­er half goes, “it’s all fake news. Don’t look up. It’s rub­bish.” And then the last thing I want to talk about just what I’m doing, its Mag­ic Mil­lion’s sales week on the Gold Coast, so we have a cult being sold on Fri­day night in the sale. So, if you don’t see me on Mon­day, it sold well. We’ll be cel­e­brat­ing. But if you see me back at work on Mon­day, it did­n’t sell well. So, busy time for the rac­ing indus­try. I keep get­ting lots of phone calls from train­ers want­i­ng me to buy a horse with them they’ve bought at the sales.

Cameron  48:36

So if it does sell well, why won’t we see you? Where or what will you be doing?

Tony  48:42

Sil­ly cel­e­brat­ing, I think prob­a­bly.

Cameron  48:44

That’s good.

Tony  48:46

If any­one’s inter­est­ed, if some­one’s inter­est­ed, it’s by Har­ry’s Angel, which is a first year sire out of Kaisura or Caesura. Actu­al­ly, how do you pro­nounce that, Cam? You’re the Cae­sar expert? CAESURA, the mare. “Caesura?”

Cameron  49:03

CAESURA?

Tony  49:06

Yeah.

Cameron  49:07

Well, if you were pro­nounc­ing it the way the, they would have pro­nounced it in ancient Rome it would be “Kai-zura” but we Eng­lishise-Angli­cised it to be “sizu­ra”. I don’t know what name that is, though. I don’t know any­one who was called Caesura.

Tony  49:23

I think it’s just the female ver­sion of Cae­sar, prob­a­bly, the per­son who named the, the brood­mare was a Cae­sar fan per­haps? Yeah.

Cameron  49:30

Good stuff. Got­ta love of Cae­sar fan.

Tony  49:34

Yeah, actu­al­ly, there’s lots of ancient Roman names in race­hors­es every now and then. Which is inter­est­ing.

Cameron  49:39

Well, I wish you’d get back to Syd­ney because I want to know what you think of my Christ­mas gift. It’s been sit­ting there wait­ing for you for a cou­ple of weeks.

Cameron  49:46

So any­way, you’ll get it when you get it, I guess. Well, I’ve been, I’ve been watch­ing Cobra Kai. I final­ly got Hunter and Tayler into Cobra Kai. They’re lov­ing it. Chris­sy and I’ve been watch­ing The Great when we’re watch­ing stuff, enjoy­ing the lat­est sea­son of that. New sea­son of The Right­eous Gem­stones just kicked off as well. So, we’ve start­ed that last night, watched an episode of that. Just fan­tas­tic show. You seen any of that yet?

Tony  49:46

Oh, well thank you!

Tony  50:01

No, I haven’t.

Cameron  50:15

It’s great. Dan­ny McBride and John Good­man run­ning a big hap­py clap­per evan­gel­i­cal church down in the South, and they’re just the most… It’s basi­cal­ly Suc­ces­sion, but set around a Catholic church, not a Catholic Church, an Evan­gel­i­cal Church — Bap­tist Church. Yeah, real­ly fun­ny.

Tony  50:36

Sco­mo’s not in the back­ground some­where?

Cameron  50:38

Yeah, he prob­a­bly is. Yeah, he’s prob­a­bly there.

Tony  50:42

I love John Good­man, so I’ll check it out.

Cameron  50:44

Oh, and Dan­ny McBride. Have you seen any of Dan­ny McBride’s stuff?

Tony  50:48

No, it does­n’t ring a bell. Is he the guy from Schit­t’s Creek?

Tony  50:51

Isn’t that a line from Smokey and the Ban­dit? East-bound and down?

Cameron  50:51

No, no, that’s Dan Levy. Dan Levy. No. Dan­ny McBride did, he’s done a num­ber of great series. His first one was called East­bound and Down, which was about ten or twelve years ago, where he was a hot shot base­ball pitch­er who was a mas­sive alco­holic and drug addict and ass­hole psy­chopath who basi­cal­ly got fired and had to go back to his home­town and get a job as a gym teacher. But walks around like he’s a super­star and just treats every­body like shit. Fan­tas­tic.

Cameron  51:26

Yeah, it’s from the theme song. It’s the theme song, “East­bound and Down loaded up iand truck­ing…” That’s basi­cal­ly it, yeah. Like the first episode of the show starts off with, you hear this moti­va­tion­al voiceover about how this guy rose to become one of the top pitch­ers in you know, Major League Base­ball, and then he pulls up and he’s a guy dri­ving in a truck, a big ute, and he pulls up. And it’s Dan­ny McBride lis­ten­ing to his own moti­va­tion­al tape as he gets out of his car back in his home­town. He does, he’s real­ly good at doing real­ly dumb, arro­gant guys from the South who think they’re hot shit, but they’re real­ly dumb. So that was a great series. Then he did a sec­ond series called Vice Prin­ci­pals about a Vice Prin­ci­pal of a high school, he was the Vice Prin­ci­pal, which also starred Wal­ton Gog­gins as his arch neme­sis Vice Prin­ci­pal, which was just fan­tas­tic. Again, just two guys…

Tony  52:23

I love Wal­ton Gog­gins.

Cameron  52:25

Me too. Well, Right­eous Gem­stone, Wal­ton Gog­gins was in the first sea­son of that as well, as anoth­er Bap­tist preach­er with, they’ve all got, you know, crazy hair and crazy clothes and liv­ing in man­sions and dri­ve, you know, fly­ing in pri­vate jets and just but just the most hor­ri­ble human beings out­side of Suc­ces­sion, you know, just hor­ri­ble, hor­ri­ble peo­ple. It’s very fun­ny. Yeah, Dan­ny McBride is one of my heroes. He’s very much like Ricky Ger­vais, and he just does these series that are all kind of sim­i­lar. He writes them and stars in them usu­al­ly and he’s an Amer­i­can ver­sion of Ricky Ger­vais. Been get­ting into, I think I don’t if we talked about this last week, but I’m doing a ret­ro­spec­tive on Guy Ritchie. Went back and rewatched Lock, Smoke and Stock and been watch­ing his new one Wrath of Man with Jason Statham. Not great, but just giv­ing it a, giv­ing it a shot. Have you seen that yet?

Tony  53:18

No, I haven’t. I looked at it last night, but I think I still have to pay for it on Ama­zon Prime, and I thought stuff that. So, as soon as it becomes free.

Cameron  53:26

I think it’s on Net­flix, actu­al­ly.

Tony  53:27

Is it? Okay, I’ll have a look then.

Cameron  53:29

Or one of those, Binge maybe. I don’t know.

Tony  53:31

No, I haven’t seen it. Have you watched the Rock and Roller yet?

Cameron  53:34

You know what, I went to rewatch it after you remind­ed me of it last week and then realised I have actu­al­ly seen it. I did, I did watch it a while back.

Tony  53:41

That’s great.

Cameron  53:43

It’s pret­ty good. But Lock Stock I think is just, it and Snatch are his mas­ter­pieces.

Tony  53:48

Oh yeah, and Snatch.

Cameron  53:50

Been still lis­ten­ing to Bil­ly Con­nol­ly’s audio auto­bi­og­ra­phy, lov­ing that. And Fox has been watch­ing Doc­tor Who with me every night. He’s final­ly… you remem­ber when he was born and Alex gave him all that Doc­tor Who stuff? A book.

Tony  54:03

Yeah.

Cameron  54:04

He’s got his head buried in that book every day for hours now and he’s con­stant­ly talk­ing about it. We sent Alex a lit­tle video last week of him say­ing “thank you for the book, Alex”, sev­en and a half years after she gave it to him. Yeah, he’s like a com­plete Doc­tor nerd now like every­thing’s just all about the Doc­tor. I think we’re up to sea­son three of David Ten­nant so far, and he’s final­ly, final­ly into Doc­tor Who, which is a lot of fun for me.

Tony  54:33

Oh, that’s great. Yeah, I used to love it when I was a — I still do love it — but I used to love it when I was a kid too.

Cameron  54:38

Yeah, it’s kind of a right of pas­sage for Aussie kids, get­ting into Doc­tor Who. So, that’s that. Alright. Well, thank you, Tony. So where will you be this time next week? Still down there?

Tony  54:50

I’ll still be here, yeah.

Cameron  54:51

Or on a yacht, if you sell your horse.

Tony  54:55

Yes, that’s right. If a horse sells well, yeah. Depend­ing on horse sales, yeah. Well, I’ll be here prob­a­bly for the next cou­ple of weeks at least. Just wait­ing to see what hap­pens with Omi­cron and we’ve got some work lined up for Syd­ney so it’d be nice to be out of the apart­ment when that’s hap­pen­ing, so we’ll see.

Cameron  55:17

The QAV Pod­cast is a pro­duc­tion of space­craft pub­lish­ing Pro­pri­etary Lim­it­ed, autho­rised rep­re­sen­ta­tive of AFS sell 520442 AFS rep­re­sen­ta­tive num­ber 001292718. Please don’t make any invest­ment deci­sions based sole­ly on lis­ten­ing to this pod­cast is pre­sent­ed as gen­er­al advice only not per­son­al finan­cial advice. We don’t know your per­son­al finan­cial cir­cum­stances. Please see a finan­cial plan­ner before mak­ing any invest­ing deci­sions.