Season 1, Episode 23
Beware The Black Swan
Today our guest is Roger Montgomery from Montgomery Investment Management to talk about his approach to value investing and what he thinks is going on with the Australian market and economy at the moment. Lots of great insights in this one, from the economics of enough, to black swans and what happens when the fear of missing out becomes larger than the fear of loss.
For our premium subscribers, Tony then analyses our company of the week, Credit Corp Group (CCP), who does pretty well on the checklist.
This week’s beats by Chad Crouch.
Please note: If you want to listen to the premium content, sign up to QAV CLUB.
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OIL THAT: QAV AU #925
This week we cover the Iran oil sanctions waiver and what it means for the oil price, plus debrief on selling our oil stocks (Karoon, Viva Energy, Brookside) ahead of what turned out to be a nasty drop. Tony does a Pulled Pork on ASX-listed labour hire and training firm Ashley Services Group (ASH), a thinly traded turnaround story with a strong owner-founder and a QAV score of 0.24. We also note the passing of Alan Greenspan, the Credit Corp / Humm deal falling apart, and end-of-financial-year portfolio numbers that have the dummy portfolio well ahead of the index.
Major Feelgood: QAV AU #924
On this week’s show, we wade through a big news cycle: the US-Iran peace deal that forced us to dump our oil stocks, the SpaceX IPO trading at a jaw-dropping 1,750 times PROPCAF while losing money, and the brief Korean stock market circuit breaker that felt a little too dotcom-era for comfort. Tony does a Pulled Pork on Suncorp Group, freshly returned to the buy list after divesting its banking arm to ANZ, and I run the numbers on the Dogs of the Dow versus QAV over five years.
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