QAV 813 — The Mill Red Flag

by | Apr 2, 2025 | Australia, Blog, Investing Podcast, Podcast Episodes

In this episode, TK shares his busy week involv­ing golf, horse rac­ing, and fam­i­ly events, includ­ing his daugh­ter’s first auc­tion and his upcom­ing birth­day. Cameron updates on the QAV light port­fo­lio’s per­for­mance, not­ing it’s now beat­ing the index since incep­tion and for the finan­cial year, despite sell­ing EHL and TPG. They dis­cuss Dol­lara­ma’s acqui­si­tion of The Reject Shop (TRS) at a sig­nif­i­cant pre­mi­um, spec­u­late on the ratio­nale, and touch on poten­tial chal­lenges for Dol­lara­ma in the Aus­tralian mar­ket. Con­cerns are raised about Stock­o­pe­dia fol­low­ing staff depar­tures and data dis­crep­an­cies, par­tic­u­lar­ly with Price to Oper­at­ing Cash Flow (Prop­CAF) fig­ures. The hosts delve into ASIC and the RBA scru­ti­niz­ing the ASX over CHESS replace­ment issues and oper­a­tional risks. They ana­lyze sev­er­al stocks: Accent Group (AX1) poten­tial­ly see­ing increased stake from Fraser’s Group, New Hope Group’s pos­i­tive results and share buy­back amidst slump­ing coal prices, Ramelius Resources’ (RMS) con­tro­ver­sial acqui­si­tion of Spar­tan Resources and sub­se­quent removal from Stock Doc­tor’s star list due to dis­clo­sure and finan­cial con­cerns, and NZME’s results, poten­tial cor­po­rate activ­i­ty involv­ing Stuff, and a loom­ing board chal­lenge from Cana­di­an bil­lion­aire Jim Gren­nan. A sig­nif­i­cant dis­cus­sion revolves around estab­lish­ing ‘red flags’ for cor­po­rate gov­er­nance issues, trig­gered by Heli­a’s (HLI) CEO sell­ing shares before bad news, Indi­ana Resources (IDA) fail­ing to lodge reports on time, and broad­er con­cerns about man­age­ment integri­ty, time­ly dis­clo­sure, and when to remove a red flag. They also cov­er TPG Tele­com’s sale of assets to Vocus and per­form a deep dive into San­tos (STO), includ­ing its his­to­ry, recent per­for­mance, QAV met­rics, and asso­ci­at­ed risks. The episode wraps up with ‘After Hours’ chat about clas­sic TV shows like Joe 90 and Odd Squad, films like Unfor­giv­en and Ipcress File, music dis­cov­er­ies includ­ing Trans­plants and The Dis­tillers, and TK’s upcom­ing horse races.

QAV 810 — The QAV Magnificent 12

by | Mar 12, 2025 | Blog, Investing Podcast, Podcast Episodes

In this episode, we review recent half-year­ly results and mar­ket volatil­i­ty, dis­cussing notable move­ments in the dum­my port­fo­lio com­pared to the bench­mark, as well as sig­nif­i­cant shifts in com­modi­ties such as crude oil. We dive into report­ing-sea­son sur­pris­es from com­pa­nies like Qan­tas, Hel­lo World, Pep­per Mon­ey, and Karoon Ener­gy, explor­ing the lack of time­ly “con­fes­sion sea­son” dis­clo­sures and how that impacts invest­ment deci­sions. The top­ic of whether to pause stock pur­chas­es dur­ing report­ing sea­son is debat­ed, express­ing our frus­tra­tion over abrupt CFO depar­tures and earn­ings “shock” announce­ments. We con­clude with a “Pulled Pork” deep dive on min­ing ser­vices group Per­en­ti (PRN), ana­lyz­ing cash-flow quirks, fore­cast earn­ings, and over­all QAV met­rics.

QAV 808 — The Value Investor’s Lament

by | Feb 26, 2025 | Blog, Investing Podcast, Podcast Episodes

In this episode of QAV, Cameron and Tony nav­i­gate the car­nage of report­ing sea­son, where many QAV stocks have tak­en a beat­ing. They dis­cuss the bru­tal mar­ket reac­tions to earn­ings miss­es, the under­per­for­mance of val­ue stocks rel­a­tive to growth, and what the lat­est results say about the over­all mar­ket sen­ti­ment. Despite the doom and gloom, there are bright spots, includ­ing Berk­shire Hathaway’s lat­est results and a few stand­out earn­ings reports. Tony also revis­its the con­cept of mar­ket tops and how investors should be posi­tion­ing them­selves.

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