QAV Podcast Episodes

This is the audio tran­script of a Zoom group chat Tony and I did with some of our QAV Club mem­bers on 7 Sept 2020. Lots of great ques­tions were answered.

This week’s episode con­tains extra invest­ing fudge! We dis­cuss Wilshire GDP / Shiller PE / CAPE ratios, what red flags to look for in com­pa­ny reports, how to score a New 3pt Upturn, Short­man, War­ren Buf­fet­t’s secret, and Tony dis­cuss­es some of the lat­est com­pa­nies that he has eval­u­at­ed.

On this episode we talk about why we are not try­ing to com­pete with APT investors; Tony’s recent stock buys and analy­sis; how he uses his “watch list” and why we’ve changed its name to the “buy list”; we we’re still man­u­al­ly cal­cu­lat­ing the price-to-cash ratio instead of using Stock Doctor’s fig­ure; improved word­ing on how to draw a three point trend SELL line; and why some­times a stock with great num­bers might have a falling knife.

We start off this episode with a recap of last week’s jour­nal entries, then answer your ques­tions about when Tony sells a stock, how to build a port­fo­lio from scratch, the pros and cons of dif­fer­ent Buy and Sell order types, and which stocks are in Tony’s port­fo­lio.

On this Q&A episode, TK answers ques­tions about whether stocks that have been bought in an Up trend per­form bet­ter than those bought after a break out from a Down Trend, about the rel­a­tive impor­tance of mar­ket depth for LYL, whether or not prof­it tak­ing makes any sense, how he uses the the 52 week high AFR list, HUG lines, the three point trend line for ANZ, and the log­ic of sell­ing AGD.

TK talks me through how to re-eval­u­ate the watch­list when we are ready to buy some­thing and then we answer your ques­tions about the recent­ly added Stock Doc­tor fil­ters (SDMax, Finan­cial Health Trend, etc), the GEAR buy last week, how much time Tony spends on his port­fo­lio each day and the pros and cons of hav­ing a port­fo­lio of only 10 stocks instead of 20.

Today “St Antho­ny” answers your ques­tions, reveals the true cost of send­ing kids to pri­vate school, and explains how he approach­es rais­ing a wealthy child.

Tony talks about some of his recent “mus­ings” regard­ing bank stocks and com­par­ing the results of his analy­sis of using Stock Doc­tor fil­ters ver­sus our three-point trend lines. Then we talk about his rea­sons for our recent port­fo­lio buys and sells.

We talk about the recent Berk­shire Hath­away AGM, Tony “mus­es” about buy­ing NAB with­out wait­ing for pos­i­tive sen­ti­ment (shock! hor­ror!), dis­cuss­es some new the­o­ries about using Stock Doc­tor fil­ters, and then he answers a ton of your ques­tions about — pyra­mid­ing — whether or not Tony ever sets a mar­gin where he always cash­es in the prof­it — how to cal­cu­late  the intrin­sic val­ue of each of the top 20 stocks — and a heap of ques­tions about draw­ing three-point trend lines.

We’re joined by two young val­ue investors, Jack­son Lee and Ricky Yeo from the Syd­ney Super­in­vestors meet­up, who talk about how they man­age their port­fo­lios and what they con­sid­er to be their hot tips of good val­ue stocks.

Today we answer your ques­tions about why we’re buy­ing back into the mar­ket even though Tony has doubts over the recov­ery — how we account for the qual­i­ty of man­age­ment in our analy­sis — how much atten­tion Tony pays to vol­ume of shares trad­ed — Stock Doc­tor’s “Price to Cash­flow” and “Price to NTA” fil­ters — how to cal­cu­late three-point trend line sell sig­nals — how the check­list weights ‘qual­i­ty’ vs ‘val­ue’ met­rics — how patient Tony is with a stock if it drops soon after he buys it (ver­sus “you breach you gone”) — Stock Doc­tor’s dilut­ed weight­ed no. of ordi­nary shares vs ‘Ful­ly Paid Ord. Shares’ — HAW’s future cash flow — Mil­ton Cor­po­ra­tion’s con­fer­ence call — and how to go about set­ting up a brand new port­fo­lio.

Chris Tate from Talk­ing Trad­ing and The Trad­ing Game joins us today to talk about his approach to invest­ing, futures trad­ing and tur­tle trad­ing. Then we answer some lis­ten­er ques­tions about whether or not the mar­ket has priced in the com­ing eco­nom­ic car­nage.

How are Aus­trali­a’s two mil­lion small busi­ness­es cop­ing with the lock­down? Is the gov­ern­ment stim­u­lus help­ing? What will hap­pen to them on the oth­er side of the cri­sis? To help us get our heads around these ques­tions, we’re joined today by Kane Kelfkens, own­er of The Fam­i­ly Jew­els, a jew­ellery busi­ness with sev­er­al out­lets in Syd­ney.

Then we answer some of your invest­ing ques­tions, about dol­lar cost aver­ag­ing, the pos­si­bil­i­ty of a US cur­ren­cy deval­u­a­tion, the best sources to find stocks, and whether or not Tony sells his entire hold­ing or just a part of it when it breach­es the down­wards three-point trend line.

Tony walks us through his deci­sion to buy some STO shares last week (as per the email we sent to QAV Club mem­bers on Fri­day).
Tony then answers some mem­ber ques­tions about Stan­more Coal, how list­ed invest­ment vehi­cles lend them­selves to QAV analy­sis, the KMT rights issue, and Roger Montgomery’s recent arti­cle.

Part 3 of our reboot­ed get­ting start­ed pod­casts. This picks up where episode 303 left off, halfway through the QAV check­list.

Tony thinks the mar­ket is going through the “five stages of grief” and we debate which stage we are up to. He also talks about the “Cop­pock Curve” which sug­gests mar­kets, like peo­ple, go through peri­ods of mourn­ing. Then we answer some of your ques­tions about: the best way to set up a pro­file to trade, com­par­ing full-ser­vice bro­kers to low-cost DIY options, how to treat com­pa­nies with neg­a­tive “net income “, what Tony thinks about Dis­count­ed Cash Flow cal­cu­la­tions, his thoughts on the pos­si­bil­i­ty of infla­tion in the next few years, whether or not he ever uses options, whether or not found he has found any com­pa­nies with good scores late­ly, and what he thinks about Kath­man­du

Part 2 of our “get­ting start­ed” reboot. In this episode we get into the nit­­ty-grit­­ty of the check­list and the data sources we use.

Back to answer­ing your ques­tions today, includ­ing top­ics about lever­ag­ing your port­fo­lio, replac­ing Stock Doc­tor with anoth­er data source, ban­ning short-sel­l­­ing, invest­ing in REITs, how to pri­ori­tise the watch list, and just gen­er­al­ly when to buy back in. Tony’s basic approach right now is to “wash your hands — and then sit on ’em.”

As it’s been a year since we record­ed our “intro­duc­tion to QAV” episodes, a cou­ple of our lis­ten­ers sug­gest­ed it would be a good idea to re-record them, now that we’re much smoother on the mic. So we present — QAV Reboot. We intro­duce our­selves and the QAV sys­tem of invest­ing in shares.

While Fri­day brought a dead cat bounce, Tony thinks the cor­rec­tion is just get­ting start­ed. He says we’re yet to see the impact of the com­ing cred­it crunch. We answer a ques­tion about whether or not Tony invests for the pur­pose of liv­ing off the div­i­dend income, and in our club edi­tion we analyse Macma­hon Hold­ings (MAH) just for prac­tice. As I say — NOW is the time to send your­self to QAV Uni­ver­si­ty. When the mar­ket turns around, we should all be ready with a watch­list so we can jump in quick­ly and ride it all the way up in the next cycle.

Tons of ques­tions this week from club mem­bers about how to invest dur­ing a mar­ket cor­rec­tion. And as the mar­ket is still in free fall, we don’t both­er with a stock analy­sis. So we just spend 90 min­utes answer­ing your excel­lent ques­tions.