QAV AU 823

 

Cameron: [00:00:00] Can you repeat what you just

Tony Kynas­ton: No. Well, I can,

Cameron: God.

Tony Kynas­ton: No

Cameron: Oh, that’s a shame. That’s dis­ap­point­ing. Wel­come back to QAV. Tony

Tony Kynas­ton: thank you. Can, how are you?

Cameron: am real­ly, well. Tony was just doing a Shake­speare accent, but he did it off cam­era. off air, off record­ing.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, will you start­ed it with your res­o­nant? Hel­lo?

Cameron: Chan­nelling my inner John Laws.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, okay.

Cameron: I’m tired. I was just sit­ting here hav­ing a nap before you came in. I’m wan­na go and have a nap. It’s that time of the day. It’s nap time. 2:00 PM We’re record­ing this Tues­day, the 10th of June.

Tony Kynas­ton: oh, off you go. I’ll

take over.

Cameron: yeah. I’ll wait till you do your pulled pork. I’ll just have a nap. I. No reflec­tion on the pulled pork. It’s just I don’t have to [00:01:00] talk for 20 min­utes so I can have a rest. Kung fu took it out­ta me today. How have you been TK? We did­n’t do a show. Well, we did­n’t talk last week ’cause we did the, uh, inter­view with Tobias Carlisle from the week before. Pre­re­cord. Yeah. Good week.

It’s been a while.

Tony Kynas­ton: it has, you’re right. Actu­al­ly I had­n’t thought of that. Has been a while.

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: have had a good

Cameron: What’s going on in your world?

Tony Kynas­ton: is going on, it’s, uh, very cold down

Cameron: win­ter like down at Capes? Schanck? Yeah. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: It’s, uh, went out yes­ter­day and played golf and I think it was about eight degrees in the after­noon and I man­aged to wrench my back, so I’m just get­ting over that

Cameron: Oh no. How did you do that?

Tony Kynas­ton: just

Cameron: pick­ing up the golf cart and throw­ing it? That’s rud­dy. Who does that kind of thing?

Tony Kynas­ton: well, I dun­no. Yeah. No, well, no. Um, no. Just play­ing in the cold weath­er, I think, and prob­a­bly

Cameron: yeah. Right.

Tony Kynas­ton: haven’t, done enough gym work with all the hol­i­days and things that have been on, so.

Cameron: Do you warm up before a game of golf? Do you do like [00:02:00] five, 10 min­utes of stretch­ing? Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: did­n’t do much stretch­ing, but went to the dri­ving range and stretched there and hit a few balls.

So I thought it was okay. But yeah,

Cameron: Mm

Tony Kynas­ton: it’s a prob­lem I’ve had before. Any­way, it’s bet­ter today than it was

Cameron: mm Oh, that’s good.

Tony Kynas­ton: And we

Cameron: I believe, um, you

Tony Kynas­ton: was good fun. She

Cameron: love­ly. That’s nice. How is Alex?

Tony Kynas­ton: she’s good. Or like she got, she was sick dur­ing the week as well. She some kind

or flu. Um, yeah. So that was­n’t good for her, but it was nice hav­ing her down here. Good

Cameron: Hmm. I’ve got my son Tay­lor vis­it­ing too for the week. He’s back from LA for a week, and I’m try­ing to con­vince him not to go back to la. I’m like, dude, this is not a good time to be in la. Just wait until it, wait until we see what hap­pens before you go back. But I don’t know if I’m gonna be able to [00:03:00] con­vince him to see where things are at by the end of the week.

I guess.

Tony Kynas­ton: And if it’s a anoth­er tel­co tray, it could be all over in a week too.

Cameron: Could be, could also not be, this could be the, uh, this could be the burn­ing of the Reich stag for the US. We nev­er know.

Tony Kynas­ton: think that’s what’s going on? Do you?

Cameron: Yeah. Oh, I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t think that’s what’s going on, but I think that is pos­si­bly what could hap­pen as a result of this. Like it just takes for one per­son to acci­den­tal­ly shoot some­body else, or not acci­den­tal­ly shoot some­body else. And this thing could blow up, uh, even fur­ther. Yeah, it, my oper­at­ing the­o­ry since Trump got re-elect­ed is that Trump can’t afford to not be in pow­er, which means he can’t afford to have a fair elec­tion that could result in him pow­er, whether it’s con­trol­ling both hous­es at the midterms or the los­ing the [00:04:00] White House in what­ev­er’s left three and a half years.

So some­thing needs to be done from his per­spec­tive to make sure that that isn’t a pos­si­bil­i­ty. And there’s a range of things. But you know, the his­to­ri­an in me has seen this play out. Many times across his­to­ry when you have an author­i­tar­i­an leader who does­n’t real­ly care about the rule of law and can’t afford to lose pow­er because there will be per­son­al, deep, per­son­al reper­cus­sions if he los­es pow­er. And par­tic­u­lar­ly when he is just had a falling out with the rich­est man in the coun­try who was align­ing him­self polit­i­cal­ly against him, or at least was until they rolled out Nation­al Guard. Now Elon’s, retweet­ing Trump and JD Vance again. So I don’t know what the sta­tus of that is. Yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, well, when Tay­lor goes back, if he goes back, can you ask him to buy the red Tes­la that’s for sale in Wash­ing­ton? ’cause it, it’s be worth some­thing in the future as a, a his­to­ry piece [00:05:00] for a muse­um

Cameron: Tay­lor has, Tay­lor has come back to be the guest speak­er at, uh, his old high school.

Tony Kynas­ton: Ooh.

Cameron: They’ve invit­ed him to come back and give a talk to the year 12 stu­dents about, I. I don’t know, some­thing. He’s not quite sure. I don’t think about what he’s sup­posed to be say­ing.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh

Cameron: asked him, don’t shit on, don’t shit on uni­ver­si­ty.

Going to uni­ver­si­ty

Tony Kynas­ton: well I did

whether

whether he would go back and he said he regret­ted leav­ing. So I think that was a wise answer.

Cameron: Yeah, I think so. at the same time, I mean, I think he does at one lev­el and does­n’t at anoth­er, like it’s sort of a divid­ed thing. But, um, I, I think he, he real­izes that if his schemes don’t play out, then he may wish he a degree to fall back on. But the flip side is he does­n’t expect his, uh, grand schemes to Peter out and he’s going from strength to strength.

So,

Tony Kynas­ton: Hunter says, there’s no

Cameron: but

Tony Kynas­ton: [00:06:00] That con­cen­trates

Cameron: Yes.

Tony Kynas­ton: with­out net? Yep.

Cameron: Yeah. When you’re liv­ing in LA pay­ing three and a half grand rent and, uh, doing all that kin­da stuff. Mm-hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: whoa. That’s

to stay

isn’t it?

Cameron: Uh, it’s not, not much bet­ter here. Bris­bane’s like one of the most expen­sive places in the world to live right now. Any who I believe in oth­er news, uh, you have roy­al­ty in the fam­i­ly.

Now, Tony,

Tony Kynas­ton: You’ll have to enlight­en me, Kim. I think I know what you’re talk­ing about, but No, we don’t.

Cameron: uh, did­n’t your sis­ter-in-law get made a com­pan­ion of the king yes­ter­day?

Tony Kynas­ton: Or com­pan­ion of, isn’t it the com­pan­ion of the order of the Aus­tralia? Is that like being,

Cameron: have any idea

Tony Kynas­ton: a

Cameron: it is.

Tony Kynas­ton: So I’m an lawyer of Aus­tralia and this is my com­pan­ion. Yes, she did. Yes. Cather­ine Fag, Jen­ny’s sis­ter, old­er sis­ter. [00:07:00] Con­grat­u­la­tions

Cameron: fan­tas­tic.

Tony Kynas­ton: sure she won’t be

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: to her.

Uh,

Cameron: do you have to, do you have to curt­sy now when you, uh, have fam­i­ly gath­er­ings now? I don’t know. What’s the, what’s the pro­to­col there?

Tony Kynas­ton: uh, yeah. I may have to treat it with a

Cameron: we get her, can we get her on the show to talk about, uh, what she knows about the roy­al fam­i­ly and, uh, who’s up, who and who has­n’t paid?

Tony Kynas­ton: All I can ask. Uh, she won’t know a thing about the Roy­al fam­i­ly, um, although she did use to

Cameron: She’s not get­ting invit­ed to Cucum­ber.

Tony Kynas­ton: News­pa­per. It was a Hel­lo

Cameron: Oh, dear.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Mm,

Cameron: That’s why she got it. She’s one of the peo­ple who sub­scribed to Roy­al Mag­a­zines.

Tony Kynas­ton: Prob­a­bly.

Cameron: That’s what you have to do Now, she, uh, in all seri­ous­ness, uh, my under­stand­ing from what I read in the Finan­cial Review is that it’s in recog­ni­tion of her role as a senior exec­u­tive in a lot of Aus­tralian busi­ness­es and foun­da­tions and the RBA and all those sorts of things.

I.

Tony Kynas­ton: she cer­tain­ly had a very good career. Um, [00:08:00] it would be for work on the RBA, but she’s also does a lot of phil­an­thropic work. I think she sits, I dun­no if she still does, or she may just come off recent­ly, but she used to be the chair of the Mel­bourne Recital Cen­ter, so, uh, did a lot of work for the not-for-prof­it sec­tor there in the arts.

Um, and prob­a­bly a lot of oth­er things I haven’t heard about too, so, uh, yeah, no, it’s, it’s well deserved. She does put a lot of work on it. She’s on about five boards, um, five or six boards, so it’s more than a full-time job.

Cameron: Yeah. Right. Oh, that’s ter­rif­ic.

Tony Kynas­ton: the, she’s one of the direc­tors of the Jer­ry War Invest­ments, which is a list­ed invest­ment com­pa­ny, so I could ask her to come on and talk about that if you want­ed.

Cameron: No, I just want­ed to some roy­al Goss, you know, I don’t know.

Tony Kynas­ton: Look, sub­scribe

Cameron: bet­ter? I wan­na know. Does she get. Does she, does she get bet­ter seats in restau­rants? Does she get eas­i­er upgrades on flights? Uh, now that [00:09:00] you’re,

Tony Kynas­ton: I,

Cameron: do you have a spe­cial car? Do you get to flash?

Tony Kynas­ton: well, that’s the chair­man’s Lounge.

Cameron: Oh yeah. Right. She get to go to places and go. Yeah. It’s just, she like flash­es the badge. So, you know, com­pan­ion of the order of the King of Aus­tralia or what­ev­er it is.

Tony Kynas­ton: It

Cameron: Get out­ta my way. Peas­ant.

Tony Kynas­ton: depends I, this is Grail. I can’t wait till I, next fam­i­ly din­ner. I’m gonna use all these,

uh,

Cameron: curt­sy, I think you should just make sure you curt­sy when you see her.

Tony Kynas­ton: um, well,

Cameron: have you got?

Tony Kynas­ton: is, it is a look. I’ll, I’ll make one com­ment. And this is not meant to be a crit­i­cism, but it’s a dif­fer­ent world. Um, I. Uh, talk­ing about, you know, going to things and stuff, like, what­ev­er the things that turn her on just have no appeal to me what­so­ev­er. she’s about to go, and Jen­ny was gonna go as well, I think, but she’s got some bald clash­es, so I’m prob­a­bly, um, dis­re­spect­ing her a lit­tle bit as well.

But they were going to go to some fash­ion house in Japan to watch [00:10:00] dark­est black ink die used in the world to pro­duce some fab­ric. And I’m

Cameron: I’ve heard about that.

Tony Kynas­ton: okay. Well you must

Cameron: Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: cir­cles as Cath and Jen.

Cameron: No, I think Fox saw it on a YouTube and told me about it.

Tony Kynas­ton: But yeah, so like we were talk­ing about last time we had din­ner um, yeah, the places she goes to and the places I go to are vast­ly dif­fer­ent. So when she

this place in Japan, I said, do they have a golf course? And she said, I, I

But yeah,

are, you know, aren’t lined on those kinds of things.

Cameron: Mm.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: Well, I’ve got a, a, a all girl Japan­ese band to talk to you about in after hours that, uh, I’ve dis­cov­ered recent­ly. Yeah, yeah. Well, let’s get down to invest­ing, Tony. Enough chitchat. Uh, what do you have on your list of talk­ing points today?

Tony Kynas­ton: lot actu­al­ly ’cause we’ve been away for two weeks and we’re get­ting into report­ing sea­son. So a few things to talk about [00:11:00] and me rearrange my notes here. so going back to the start of June, 2nd of June, Par­en­ti a com­pa­ny I own shares in, which has done real­ly well this year for me. have picked up a $1.1 bil­lion under­ground con­tract with Endeav­or min­ing.

So they announced that, uh, last week. Um, it’s in b Burk­i­na Faso, so it’s a under­ground mine in Um, and we know, of course there’s sov­er­eign risk over there, but, uh, the con­tract val­ue is $1.1 bil­lion and it’s a 60 month con­tract from the 1st of June, 2025 for under­ground devel­op­ment, pro­duc­tion and relat­ed min­ing ser­vices.

So that was good to see. Um, and by the buy print he was up 60% this finan­cial year, last time I had a look. So done very

Cameron: Oh my God.

Tony Kynas­ton: lit­tle old val­ue stock on our buy list. Well think it

off recent­ly because of its, um, its price [00:12:00] increase, but that’s doing well.

Cameron: Wow.

Tony Kynas­ton: NWH, the N with atti­tude scored a con­tract win as well, which they announced.

And, and of course they, they’ve had a few prob­lems recent­ly with the, um, the, uh, south Aus­tralian com­pa­ny going into liq­ui­da­tion, which one of their sub­sidiaries was owed mon­ey to. But they’ve announced that they, have picked up a con­tract from Rio Tin­to, and the share price has been up since then. Um, was one steal that went into admin­is­tra­tion in South Aus­tralia, which, uh, caused their stock price to drop, but they’re pick­ing up more con­tracts, which is see­ing it rise again.

Bin­di announced their pre­lim­i­nary results for the, um, for some rea­son their finan­cial year ends in March. So they, they’re putting out their finan­cial results now a lit­tle bit ear­li­er uh, report­ing. Sea­son tip typ­i­cal­ly is, uh. They, they called it their pre­lim­i­nary unau­dit­ed results, so I’m [00:13:00] not sure why they’re rush­ing to get them out, um, before the audit.

But any­way, rev­enue was flat up, up 3% net, uh, net prof­it after tax was down, but basi­cal­ly due to the pay­out of, um, uh, one of their investors called pyra­mi­dal. And, uh, it was kind of a com­plex deal, but pyra­mi­dal, um, uh, have been, loan­ing them mon­ey, I guess, um, via a com­pul­so­ry con­vert­ible deben­ture con­tract.

So peo­ple can Google it if they want, but basi­cal­ly it’s a, it’s a bond that can con­vert into equi­ty under cer­tain con­di­tions. Um, shares are down a lit­tle since the result. And I’ve got­ta say, I found the result con­fus­ing. Um. Prob­a­bly because of this, uh, CCD rollover with pyra­mid. Um, but any­way, uh, that’s NDI, which has been on the buy list before.

Uh, judo are up 10%. They have a strat­e­gy day in the last two [00:14:00] weeks, which was, um, well received by the mar­ket and they reaf­firmed the guid­ance for the full year. Uh, bank of Queens­land was up. No, no par­tic­u­lar news there, but, um. Their stock is on the rise as is QBE. Again, they’ve turned up and had a good week, but with, um, news, but com­ing into report­ing sea­son, that hope­ful­ly bodes well.

So that’s my news for the last two weeks, I guess some of our stocks are doing well. and I did take the time to look back at, um, some stocks, which have done well since I sold them, which I know we’re not sup­posed to do. Um, but it, it’s the­mat­ic. So stocks like HiFi, um, JB Hi Fi, Nick Scali, Com­mon­wealth Bank, Tel­stra, Qan­tas, Mac­quar­ie Group, all large cap stocks, which I’ve owned over the last cou­ple of years.

But, um, either through a rule one or a three point trend­line sell, got rid of, but they’re, they’re kick­ing [00:15:00] goals at the moment. So it’s, made me think that, um, some­times if a big cap comes onto the buy list, maybe it’s a buy and hold, um. For a while any­way, I need to do a lot of research on that ’cause I know I’ve owned Mac­quar­ie Group, for exam­ple, in the past, and that’s been fair­ly cycli­cal.

So it has gone up and down with, um, swings and I guess the oth­ers might too in time. But they’ve cer­tain­ly done well since they’ve been on the Blist, but haven’t been a full sell for me. So that’s my news for the week.

Cameron: Very good. Well, I’ve got some big caps to talk about in a sec­ond, but I’ll just do a port­fo­lio report, uh, before I get into that. So when I did my newslet­ter morn­ing for the week, the Aus­tralian dum­my port­fo­lio for the sev­en days, last sev­en days was up about 1.5% the bench­mark, which was up about 0.85% for the [00:16:00] finan­cial year.

The dum­my port­fo­lio is up about 19.5% per annum ver­sus 14.3% per annum for the bench­mark.

Tony Kynas­ton: A good year, isn’t it.

Cameron: The five year. Yeah, crazy for the five year report and I’ve tak­en to doing five years because, you know, we’ve been hav­ing this dis­cus­sion about when the offi­cial incep­tion start date is, and it’s over five years now, so it’s like eas­i­er just to do five years, which I think is sort of indus­try, uh, stan­dard for the five years.

Uh, the dum­my port­fo­lio is up 16.3% per annum ver­sus the bench­mark 10.8% per annum. it’s not quite dou­ble, I dun­no what that is, like 60% some­thing, but, uh, it’s doing all right. Vis-a-vis the bench­mark. The Amer­i­can port­fo­lio was up 4.65% this week ver­sus 1.18% for the s and p 500. Uh, our port­fo­lio is up [00:17:00] 28% for the Aus­tralian finan­cial year. Which I know is in the US finan­cial year, but it’s just, I’m doing apples for apples ver­sus our Aus­tralian port­fo­lio. So the Aus­tralian port­fo­lio is up just under 20% for the finan­cial year. It’s up t uh, 28% ver­sus the s and p 500, up 10% for the Aus­tralian finan­cial year. And since incep­tion for that one, which is Sep­tem­ber 23, it’s up 54% ver­sus 35% for the s and p 500.

So again, not a, it’s not MAGA sev­en, uh, which is pos­si­bly a good thing. Yeah, just call it the MAGA sev­en now. Every­thing’s Maga. Um, else have I got? Oh, the TPG cell line. I want­ed to ask you about this. So we hold TPG in one of the light port­fo­lios, brought it back in April. It’s up about 5% in that time.

Uh, but it’s been sort of hov­er­ing [00:18:00] around its three point cell line. For the last week or so, cur­rent price is $5 27. The three point sell line was, is $5 24. It was the last time I cal­cu­lat­ed it. So it’s a lit­tle bit above it today, but it was down below it on Fri­day and it was up and down last week. But if you have a look at the cell line in the Bret­ta­la­tor, Tony, uh, it’s, it’s hug­ging it.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: So the, the, the, the price line’s going up, it’s sort of recov­er­ing from, you know, a peri­od of being a falling knife. Um, the cell line, it, it’s last trough is the low­est trough in the last five years. So it’s, it’s been recov­er­ing in par­al­lel, like right on the sell line. So, and because it’s up and the share price is going up. Even though it’s sort of, it’s a cent below or it’s a cent above the sell line, I’ve been like, you know what? The share price is going in the right direc­tion. Just because it’s breach­ing a [00:19:00] weird as look­ing three point sell line. I’m, I’m gonna give it a bit of grace, but did­n’t wan­na break any rules, so I want­ed to talk to you about it.

What, what do you think in a sit­u­a­tion like that? It was a weird one.

Tony Kynas­ton: I, agree. Uh, with what you are doing, um. This is a weird one though. ’cause we saw this com­ing out of COVID. As I recall, we had

Cameron: Yes.

Tony Kynas­ton: rebound­ing, um, going up sharply from their low­est point dur­ing COVID, the cell line kept get­ting redrawn. But I recall it, uh, stocks like CCP for exam­ple, from mem­o­ry, um, the, the swings in the, the month to month fig­ures were greater.

So you had more cl, you had clear­er L twos. L one was always the low­est point, which was COVID. And then L two would be the low­est month, um, below the trend line from then on. Um, but attend­ed to, tend­ed to be sharp­er. So you had a clear­er idea. But look, I agree with you. I think the, the stock­’s going up, the, [00:20:00] um, it’s, it’s still trad­ing on or about cell line, so I’d wait and see.

Cameron: Okay, good. A MA group, Tony, prob­a­bly not some­thing you’re gonna pay much atten­tion to. They’re fair­ly small. Cap stock low. A DT, let’s see, 234,000 a DT. Bit small for you, but big enough for a lot of us. Uh, I just want­ed to point out that it share price is up like 75% in the last month, which isn’t hard when you go from 6 cents to 10 cents, is done, but it’s a nice one. It’s a nice one of these, like of a pen­ny stock, I guess. They came out with their third quar­ter busi­ness update on the 1st of May, which I did­n’t pay any atten­tion to at the time. [00:21:00] They said they’d com­plete­ly refi­nanced their debt facil­i­ties for three years uh, some­thing, some­thing, some­thing, but they, yeah, the share price shot up like 20% when that came out, and it’s kept going. So that’s a nice one. We hold that in one of our light port­fo­lios. Uh, let me see. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: I, I’m, if I actu­al­ly owned it over the years, but it’s dropped off a lot, um, in say the last five or 10

Cameron: Oh, real­ly?

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: Huh?

Tony Kynas­ton: And, um, of the, you can see it in the graph, it’s dropped from, in the last four years, it’s gone from 60 cents down to 10 cents, but, uh, I think over a longer t time peri­od, it may have even dropped more.

Uh, it’s a smash repair busi­ness from mem­o­ry. And,

Cameron: Yeah, that’s right. Mm-hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: um, well maybe even like up to 10 years ago. I’m not sure of the time peri­od any­way, but the insur­ance com­pa­nies decid­ed to improve their in the repair [00:22:00] mar­ket for crash repairs. ’cause they pay for those repairs most times. Um, by going out and buy­ing a lot of the spare parts, the wreck­ing yards that were pro­vid­ing spare parts.

Um, and so

that affect­ed amma’s mar­gin whole lot. Uh, ’cause they could­n’t access to cheap parts. And um, yeah, uh, they’d been slid­ing side­ways or down­wards ever since real­ly. Um, and they had a lot of, um,

board, ruc­tions along the way, which that often hap­pens when com­pa­nies are in decline like that.

Um, but if, if they’re turn­ing around, that’s great.

Cameron: Well, you know, it’s one of those things, I’ve seen this before with stocks that are trad­ing at, you know, rel­a­tive­ly low lev­els. Uh, you can, they can go up quick­ly and they can go down just as quick­ly. So I’m not, uh, sell­ing it. Well, maybe I should sell it and buy yacht, but, uh. I added them to one of the light port­fo­lios on the 10th of April for 6 cents.

They’re cur­rent­ly at [00:23:00] 11 cents, so they’ve gone up 75% in 60 days, which is always nice to see whether or not it stays there or not. We’ll see. were speak­ing about big caps before and I was just look­ing through, uh, my port­fo­lios and I’ve have, I’m sit­ting on an unusu­al num­ber of big caps, Tel­stra, which I hold in. Uh, let me see, uh, four or five port­fo­lios includ­ing my super, a cou­ple of light port­fo­lios, and it’s been a pos­si­ble rec­om­men­da­tion for, uh, light sub­scribers at some point, but it’s up like 20 to 27% depend­ing on when I sug­gest­ed. This is going back to the mid­dle of last year, July, August last year. But I was talk­ing to my mum about it, uh, the oth­er day.

She’s had Tel­stra shares for 25 years since though, since they first in 97 or when­ev­er it was, late [00:24:00] nineties. She said she bought them to hide the cash, so my dad could­n’t spend it. She had some mon­ey, I think from some­thing. She got a pay­out for some­thing my dad would usu­al­ly just go, and if there was any cash in the bank, he’d go and blow it on a boat or some bull­shit he did­n’t need.

So she bought Tel­stra shares and she said they’ve gone absolute­ly nowhere. And I was like, that can’t be right, sure­ly. And I pulled up the chart, the 25 year chart for Tel­stra. Tel­stra’s gone nowhere in 25 years. Like it bog­gles my mind.

Tony Kynas­ton: Why, you know Tel­stra,

I’m a cus­tomer of Tel­stra and Well, and

Cameron: am I.

Tony Kynas­ton: to star­link down here, but I still have a mobile with

Cameron: Well, but they, I mean, it’s not a, it’s kind of a [00:25:00] duop­oly they have in this coun­try, more or less. It’s them and Optus and a cou­ple of minor com­pa­nies and resellers and that kin­da stuff. But to own basi­cal­ly a, a, a, a mar­ket in the era of mobile phones and the inter­net and stream­ing and blah, blah, blah.

And for their shares to have gone nowhere in 28 years. They’ve gone up. They’ve had peri­ods when they’ve gone up, like just 90, 99, just before the.com crash. They were hit a peak, I think, and they’ve nev­er real­ly recov­ered back to their 1999 lev­els. I was just stunned. I had no idea.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Although I think, um, you are look­ing at the share price graph, but they’ve always yield­ed pret­ty well. So I guess if you rein­vest­ed the yield, um, they’d look bet­ter.

Cameron: Good point. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: But I

Cameron: been no cap­i­tal appre­ci­a­tion in their price.

Tony Kynas­ton: an infra­struc­ture stock. Yeah. It was a smart thing by the gov­ern­ment.

I think John Howard did it in two tranch­es, um, to sell off [00:26:00] Tel­stra. Uh, rather than own­ing a busi­ness going nowhere, he may as well put it on the cap­i­tal mar­ket site. owned it. so it prob­a­bly helped the gov­ern­men­t’s bot­tom line over the years, giv­en what you’ve just said,

Cameron: Well, yes. I mean, I still would argue that there are good jus­ti­fi­ca­tions for the peo­ple to own crit­i­cal infra­struc­ture and you know, can invest for the long term, for the ben­e­fit of the coun­try and not have to meet arbi­trary short term dead­lines or, you know, uh, report­ing mea­sure­ments for share­hold­ers.

Tony Kynas­ton: you are, you’re right. Dead set, right. But for­ev­er. I mean, the MBN is a good exam­ple of. Um, infra­struc­ture that has­n’t been that good held by the gov­ern­ment. Um, I’m, I actu­al­ly have some sym­pa­thy to what you’re say­ing, but I think there’s also an argu­ment for, um, for re for recy­cling some of these [00:27:00] assets.

So sell, sell Tel­stra and buy some­thing else like ports or free­ways and then them and et cetera, et cetera. It’s one, one way of rais­ing cap­i­tal to keep improv­ing infra­struc­ture in this coun­try.

Cameron: Yeah, sure.

Tony Kynas­ton: And in fact, the

Cameron: But I, you know, I,

Tony Kynas­ton: tranche of Tel­stra went into form­ing the Future Fund, which I think has also

Cameron: I won­der how that’s, has it

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

Cameron: real­ly,

Tony Kynas­ton: well, you could,

Cameron: it’s a,

Tony Kynas­ton: it’s a bit like a, it’s a bit like a super fund. You could argue that they could have tak­en the mon­ey and bought an index fund, um, which is basi­cal­ly what their returns have been.

Uh, but you they also have to smooth out the volatil­i­ty ’cause they, they’re pay­ing, they’re fund­ing the pub­lic ser­vice, um, retire­ment, so they can’t have as much volatil­i­ty in their fund as an index fund. But yeah. Um, it’s, it’s done well.

Cameron: I mean, my gripes with Tel­stra, and I’ve told you this sto­ry before, go back to my days at Microsoft when I was tak­ing all of the [00:28:00] Tel­stra senior execs over to Seat­tle for meet­ings and they were telling me that they had, you know, they’d spent bil­lions of dol­lars on putting glass fibre in the ground for broad­band, but weren’t gonna make it avail­able to Aus­tralians, um, until they had to. They just, and I said, I asked them, why did you do it? And they said to stop Optus being able to pro­vide broad­band. And that sort of pissed me off ’cause I want­ed broad­band. This is in the late nineties, and they would­n’t, I could­n’t get broad­band, even though the tax­pay­er had spent the mon­ey to put the cable in the ground in the mid nineties before it was pri­vate­ly list­ed. And then they were just gonna leave it, sit there and not do noth­ing with it because. did­n’t have to. It pissed me off any­way.

Tony Kynas­ton: And, to be fair, the cur­rent Tel­stra man­age­ment, the CEOs, I think a year or two into her tenure, I mean, it’s, it’s up 27% or what­ev­er you said it was this year because, uh, I mean, my sort of high lev­el take on it was the part, the pri­or [00:29:00] CEOs set up Tel­stra be split. Um, so it would be a tel­co, but the infra­struc­ture side would be split out the, the what the polls and wis­es it’s some­times called.

and then the new CO came in and said, wait a minute, this is the side that’s mak­ing mon­ey giv­en all the, um, invest­ment going into data cen­ters in par­tic­u­lar. And so they’ve kept it and, uh. She’s been right, so, uh, well

Hope­ful­ly they can

mak­ing good deci­sions like that.

Cameron: Qan­tas is anoth­er one that I hold in a num­ber of port­fo­lios, includ­ing the dum­my port­fo­lio and my super and a cou­ple of light port­fo­lios. in one of those cas­es, which is one of the light port­fo­lios, I added it in Sep­tem­ber last year. It’s up 55%

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: Qan­tas since Sep­tem­ber last year. Um, some of the oth­er port­fo­lios, my super, I did­n’t add it until Novem­ber.

It’s only up about 20% since Novem­ber. But still, it’s shock­ing to me to [00:30:00] see those sorts of large caps have that kind of appre­ci­a­tion over the course of a year. I, I kind of nev­er expect that. I guess it’s just good tim­ing, real­ly bought it at the right time.

Tony Kynas­ton: Good tim­ing, mate. It’s a process. Qan­tas was on the buy list. I did a

Cameron: That’s the process that gives us the good tim­ing.

Tony Kynas­ton: I did a pulled pork, and it shut up from there. So, you know what more do you, what more do you want to explain Qan­tas apart from the fact they changed CEOs about the same time?

Cameron: I, I prob­a­bly bought it a month after you did the pulled pork, so it crashed after you did the pulled pork. And then I bought it, and

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay.

Cameron: yeah, I, I have a new rule in my check­list now, which is, uh, wait a month until after Tony does a pulled pork and then buy it when it’s crashed. Uh, pin­na­cle Invest­ment Man­age­ment Group and Gold Min­er Perseus Min­ing have been added to the ASX 100 as part of s and p ASX Indices changes effec­tive [00:31:00] pri­or to mar­ket open on the 23rd of June, announced by s and p Dow Jones indices. As a result of the June quar­ter­ly review, pin­na­cle and Perseus have knocked Ura­ni­um Minor, Pal­adin Ener­gy and Gas Com­pa­ny, Viva Ener­gy out of the ASX 100. Uh, mean­while, health­care provider, Heal­ius and coal Min­er stan­more resources have dropped out of the ASX 200 in favour of ship builder Fur­ni­ture retail­er.

Nick Scali. Uh, I want­ed to just check in with you on we should expect now if I’m right. Um, when a com­pa­ny enters one of those indices, a lot of the big ETFs and the index funds, uh, have to buy them. So the share price should see a lit­tle bit of appre­ci­a­tion, and I assume the reverse is true. If they out of those things, they get sold off by the big funds.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, that’s, I mean, that’s the rule of thumb. [00:32:00] There’s a cou­ple of, uh, curve balls. One is those move­ments are prob­a­bly already in place, so got me, I own Perseus and it’s, it’s anoth­er stock which has done fan­tas­ti­cal­ly well for me this year. So the fact that it’s been going up any­way means it’s can­ter­ing a high­er index.

when the ETFs start buy­ing, it’ll keep going up, but it, it, it’s as much a fact of, it’s, it’s, the trend is as much a fact of what it did before it hit the index, um, as what will hap­pen after. In both, both cas­es, as we know, we’ve spo­ken about Heus before. They did a big cap­i­tal return to peo­ple and their.

Their share prices dropped dra­mat­i­cal­ly, has then tak­en them out of the index, which means the UTS will have to sell. But it’s kind of a con­tin­u­a­tion of a trend rather than some­thing. it’s, it’s not unusu­al to see that, um, there might be like a five or 10% growth stock price or decrease in the stock price after they enter as [00:33:00] their buy and sell.

how­ev­er, it’s hard to sort of, these cas­es, pull that apart from the trends that were under­way any­way. I mean, Per­cys is gonna be

as the gold by the gold prices. It is by ETF buy­ing. I would’ve thought

Cameron: Right. Yeah. Now Perseus has been good. Uh, I’ve hold that in a bunch of port­fo­lios as well. Let’s see. Um, my super have held it since April last year. It’s up 67%.

Tony Kynas­ton: s

Cameron: cou­ple of pos­si­bles. Yeah. And, um, even in a cou­ple of the light port­fo­lios, I added it March this year and it’s up 27% since then. So cau­cus,

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm,

Cameron: uh, well that’s all I’ve got apart from, um, a cou­ple of ques­tions.

Do you want me to do the ques­tions first and then you can do your Paul pork.

Tony Kynas­ton: way you want. I don’t mind. Let’s do the ques­tions.

Cameron: Let’s do that. [00:34:00] Yeah. Then I can have a nap. Jeff.

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, I’m gonna drop some East­er eggs into the pulled pork. Just see if I can wake you up. Or maybe I’ll do it in the style of, uh, a Shake­speare­an actor.

Cameron: Yeah. Oh, please. That’ll keep me awake. Jeff. Good morn­ing, cam. I hope you were well. I’m very, I’m insane­ly well, Jeff. I’m like in crazy shape, but don’t tempt me. I’ll show Tony my abs again. I know he loves that. Pull my shirt up and show him how ripped I am.

Tony Kynas­ton: I’d

Cameron: ’ cause you’re a cold one. ’cause you were too. He, you’re too like excit­ed to cool your­self down. He says, uh, just read­ing in the AFR about. SOL and check­ing out the Brick­works merg­er, would you slash TK con­sid­er SOL to be an LIC? I was read­ing a [00:35:00] few arti­cles about their struc­ture and strat­e­gy. I could­n’t see any­thing that specif­i­cal­ly says they are a licensed invest­ment com­pa­ny. Obvi­ous­ly the mar­ket strong­ly approves the merg­er accord­ing to Stock. Doc­tor, how do you see the merg­er in terms of a long-term val­ue invest­ment? Mind you, with a prop calf, approx­i­mate­ly 20. We just don’t go there right now on a side issue. My port­fo­lio is offi­cial­ly in the nose­bleed sec­tion, gone bal­lis­tic like nev­er before.

I’m okay with that. Thank you Jeff. Con­grat­u­la­tions Jeff.

Tony Kynas­ton: Jeff. Thank you.

Cameron: did­n’t we have the CEO of

Tony Kynas­ton: Todd

Cameron: SOL on the show last year?

Tony Kynas­ton: did anoth­er pulled

done. Well,

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: well

Cameron: Done Well? Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, yeah,

Cameron: All thanks to you.

Tony Kynas­ton: and Todd, main­ly Todd.

Cameron: A lit­tle bit. Lit­tle bit him. We’ll give him a lit­tle bit of cred­it. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, yeah. So, um, I think to answer Jef­f’s ques­tion, [00:36:00] sold patents and for a long time was a list­ed invest­ment com­pa­ny, um, and had a port­fo­lio of Aus­tralian shares.

And over time a cou­ple of those have been spun out into New Hope Cor­po­ra­tion being one. Um, I’m try­ing to remem­ber what the oth­er, there was a tel­co, it’s either Vocus or TPG, I think. Any­way, so they’ve had all of suc­cess with their port­fo­lio. but it has in recent years any­way, uh, moved into the unlist­ed space and now has a large part of its hold­ings in pri­vate, uh, cred­it, um, in unlist­ed com­pa­nies.

Uh, when we spoke to do he, Todd, he spoke of, doing a rollup of Aus­tralian swim schools, for exam­ple, where kids go to learn to swim. um, and there was a cou­ple of oth­er exam­ples he had. So it’s not just Aus­tralia ASX shares in an LIC type struc­ture. It’s, it’s more than that now. Um, a cou­ple of years ago they merged with an LIC, which was just [00:37:00] ASX shares called Mil­ton.

And I think they may have merged their port­fo­lio with Mil­ton’s or vice ver­sa. But the, the, but the list­ed equi­ty still only, I don’t think they’re in the major­i­ty of their. Of their, um, income or their, their, uh, invest­ments at the moment. Um, and now that they’ve merged with Brick­works, uh, that cer­tain­ly would­n’t be the case.

So, um, peo­ple can read about the merg­er. Brick­works and, and Sol have for a long time had a cross hold­ing. So Brick­works has held, um, you know, some­thing cir­ca of 20 to 30% of so pats and vice ver­sa. that was set up decades ago as a defense to the cor­po­rate Raiders of the eight­ies and nineties, the, um, homes of courts and the cas­es of the world.

And I. Um, it was seen as being an, um, a defense mech­a­nism to stop them from being tak­en over, and it’s worked that way for a long time. But it’s also been, it’s also been seen as a bit of a, [00:38:00] hand­brake on their share prices because, uh, uh, uh, you, you kind of, if you wan­na buy so patch, you’re also buy­ing a sh large share­hold­ing and brick­works and vice ver­sa.

Uh, and, and so, you know, if one’s not doing well, it affects the oth­er, um, that’s now been unwell because they’ve merged. So, um, that’s one of the rea­sons why the share price has gone up. A lot of peo­ple have been try­ing to do that by forc­ing them through the courts to do it and has­n’t, uh, they haven’t been suc­cess­ful in doing that.

But now that they’ve merged that, that kind of, um, reverse pre­mi­ums gone out­ta the share prices and they’ve both rerat­ed upwards, so that’s good. but no, I don’t see them as a list­ed invest­ment com­pa­ny any­more. They’re more like a, con­glom­er­ate like a West Farm­ers I think these days, uh, they aren’t on our buy list ’cause I looked up their QAV score.

It’s, it’s 0.03 at the moment. So, Jeff said, their, their calf is, is still too high for us to have a look at, but they have been on the buy list in the past, [00:39:00] which is why we inter­viewed Todd. And they may well be there again in the future. ’cause it’s a, it’s a qual­i­ty com­pa­ny.

Cameron: We don’t hold them. We don’t hold them. I don’t hold them. We don’t hold them. Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: a shame. My

Cameron: shame.

Tony Kynas­ton: he’s been a

share­hold­er. I him dur­ing the week and I said, do you still hold SOL? And he went, came back with a big thumbs up. So good on,

Cameron: Mm Yeah. That’s inter­est­ing Busi­ness, like, I, I still think of them as chemists

Tony Kynas­ton: yes, that’s

Cameron: uh, think of them as chemists and now they own a brick com­pa­ny that’s, well, they are a brick com­pa­ny, real­ly. It’s, uh, strange.

Tony Kynas­ton: they’re part­ly a brick com­pa­ny. Um, and Brick­works had a list of invest­ment com­pa­ny spun out of it too. Brick­works Invest­ments, BKI. So I’m not sure. to go and have a look as to what the hold­ing now, and that is because of the merg­er. But, um, that’s a anoth­er

invest­ment com­pa­ny as well.

[00:40:00] And,

might recall Bob Mil­ner, who was the, he’s the chair­man, is the descen­dant of the orig­i­nal, phar­ma­cy own­ers. when

was a chemist chain. He is a reg­u­lar attendee at Berk­shire Hath­away’s annu­al meet­ing and has some­times been called Aus­trali­a’s War­ren and Buf­fett. So what

Cameron: Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: of peo­ple claim that Mon­i­ca, I dun­no if he’s ever claimed it, but he’s been giv­en it.

So,

yeah. Over the

Cameron: we know you, you are of the real Aus­tralian War­ren Buf­fet.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, that’s, harsh on

Cameron: Tm.

Tony Kynas­ton: Maybe I’m, I’m

age.

I

Cameron: Harsh on War­ren.

Tony Kynas­ton: any­way.

Cameron: Real­ly?

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: Because you have same glass­es. Is that what it is? It’s, it’s in the glass­es. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: And, um, our

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: and, uh, inter­est in many and vari, uh, many and var­ied in dif­fer­ent things, not just invest­ing.

Cameron: [00:41:00] Yeah, that’s true. Uh, well, there you go, Jeff. Hope that helps. Jor­dan has a ques­tion. Uh, I was ask­ing chat GPT about any poten­tial con­cerns in PPM’s annu­al report before adding it to my port­fo­lio. One point it raised was $7 mil­lion in loans to key man­age­ment, per­son­nel and direc­tors. Is this some­thing that would con­cern Tony?

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, no. ’cause I did have a look at, um, the report. and I’m sor­ry, I’m just look­ing up PPMI think it’s at the top of our buy list, isn’t it? Yeah. Pep­per mon­ey.

Cameron: It is.

Tony Kynas­ton: And it’s done

Cameron: Mm-hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: too. I’ve noticed it kicked up, um, recent­ly. It may actu­al­ly have report­ed its results. I did­n’t pay much atten­tion to it ’cause it’s a.

It not a large A DT, but that’s done very well late­ly. So good on you, if you bought it. Um, the ques­tion about, uh, man­age­ment loans, uh, to per­son­nel and direc­tors I was able to solve by [00:42:00] look­ing at the a, the, um, annu­al report. It reports some­thing like $7 mil­lion or sev­en and half mil­lion dol­lars in direc­tor’s loans.

Looks like about three of those, 3 mil­lion of those is, uh, for shares. So, um, I think PPM may have acquired a com­pa­ny and all the staff it brought across from that com­pa­ny into man­age­ment had, bor­row­ings to pay for their shares and. um, gave them loans to be able to trans­fer seam­less­ly across into pep­per share­hold­ing, um, with­out trig­ger­ing cap­i­tal gains tax by sell­ing and rebuy­ing.

so that’s half of it, or near­ly half of it. The oth­er, the oth­er 4.4 mil­lion was list­ed as loans pro­vid­ed in the nor­mal course of pep­per mon­ey, uh, pro­vid­ing mort­gages and asset finance. So it sounds like cou­ple direc­tors have, um, out mort­gages with, uh, pep­per, which is their busi­ness, so that’s good to see them their own cook­ing, if, [00:43:00] if I’m read­ing that cor­rect­ly.

So, no, I don’t have a prob­lem, Jor­dan, with either of those loans. It’s not like it’s the, the com­pa­ny’s mak­ing loans to direc­tors who are then going out and buy­ing art­work or Fer­raris or any­thing like that, in my opin­ion from what I can see. So, um, yeah, don’t have a prob­lem. Shares at the top of the buy list and it’s doing real­ly well, so it’s hard to find a rea­son not to buy them.

Cameron: If they were bor­row­ing the mon­ey to go out and buy Fer­rari and art­works, would that con­cern you?

Tony Kynas­ton: absolute­ly.

Cameron: I.

Tony Kynas­ton: that’s a mis­use of

Cameron: it’s not.

Tony Kynas­ton: thought. It’s, it’s, it’s rea­son­ably stan­dard prac­tice for com­pa­nies to loan their key staff to them buy shares. Um, I used to have such a facil­i­ty at, I think I did at Coles Mine. Uh, maybe not. Maybe, yeah, maybe I did­n’t. Maybe it was, um, uh, they may have just been decreed on a deferred basis, but yeah, I’ve seen it before.

Cer­tain­ly. And annu­al reports that com­pa­nies will, under cer­tain [00:44:00] cir­cum­stances, loan their, um, their key man­age­ment mon­ey to buy stock in the com­pa­ny.

Cameron: Right. Okay. Thank you, Jor­dan. Thank you, Jeff. Uh, if any­one has any ques­tions, please send them through.

Tony Kynas­ton: Jor­dan. Jor­dan’s a long

which is good. I.

Cameron: Yeah, he loves to help us out by ask­ing ques­tions. We appre­ci­ate that. I’m putting him top of my list for the next King’s birth­day hon­ours list. Yeah. He can be, he can be my com­pan­ion.

Tony Kynas­ton: right?

Cameron: I Did you ever, did you ever watch Fire­fly?

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, I did.

Cameron: Joss Whe­don show, you know, a com­pan­ion in that was basi­cal­ly a high class pros­ti­tute, was a com­pan­ion. So when I heard that your sis­ter-in-law was made a com­pan­ion, I was like, well, con­grat­u­la­tions to her.

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh,

Cameron: That’s where, that’s the first thing I asso­ciate with com­pan­ion that, or Dr. Who

Tony Kynas­ton: yes.

Cameron: [00:45:00] used to be an assis­tant. Now it’s a, oh, did you see what hap­pened at the end of the sea­son of Dr. Who? Did you hear?

Tony Kynas­ton: I, I saw a clip, uh, on the regen­er­a­tions. That’s what you meant?

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, yeah. I did,

Cameron: Uh, bonkers.

Tony Kynas­ton: or bad, quite frankly.

Cameron: No one can. You’re, you’re in the major­i­ty there. No one knows what the hell it means. Yeah. Well, yeah. I think it’s a, I think it’s a, uh, fur­phy. I don’t think she’s gonna be the doc­tor. I, because it did­n’t, because in the cred­its it said shoot gat as the doc­tor, Jody Whitak­er had a cameo. Jody Whitak­er is the doc­tor and intro­duc­ing Bil­ly Piper. It did­n’t say as the doc­tor. So the fan, fan base is say­ing that, uh, it’s, uh, might be just a fur­phy, like a, a hic­cup in the regen­er­a­tion process.

Tony Kynas­ton: of

Cameron: got their chan­nels mixed up. Yeah. [00:46:00] Don’t cross the streams. Yeah. Timey wimey stuff. Any who, uh, you wan­na get into? Who, who are you doing the Paul Pork on today?

Tony?

Tony Kynas­ton: it’s, a kind of a Shake­speare­an name camp, so maybe I should do it in my Shake­speare­an voice. Fleet­wood from the Green­wood in Sher­lock.

Cameron: the bloody Fleet Wood. No, that was Kingswood.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. My, my father owned a Kingswood, the car I learned to dri­ve in

Cameron: Yeah. We had at Kingswood when I was grow­ing up, what­ev­er hap­pened to Kingswood? What hap­pened to them? Were they Hold­en

Tony Kynas­ton: by

Yeah,

Cameron: uh,

Tony Kynas­ton: the

Itor. Yeah. So I’m doing a pulled pork on Fleet­wood, um, which I dis­cov­ered on the bio list after a long absence today. Uh, I do has­ten to add, they’ve gone up a lot recent­ly and they’re cur­rent­ly a Josephine, so don’t rush out. And. Look to buy them. They, they’ll, they’ll need to turn up again, even though [00:47:00] they’re way above their byline, a DT stock of around 500,000.

So, um, suit a lot of peo­ple. I own them myself many years ago. I don’t own them now. And back when I owned them, they were a car­a­van man­u­fac­tur­er. Um, and they still do a lit­tle bit of that, but they’ve, they’ve moved on since then. And, uh, they seem to have kicked some goals when they branched out into accom­mo­da­tion con­struc­tion.

Uh, and they call it mod­u­lar con­struc­tion. And then they’ve, they also oper­ate a cou­ple of mod­u­lar vil­lages that they’ve built, so think sort of min­ing camps. Um, but they’re a bit. Bet­ter than that that the, one of them is now like a per­ma­nent res­i­dence for in Port Head­land that they, they did in Con that they built and then oper­ate in con­junc­tion with the WA gov­ern­ment.

Uh, but they also oper­ate a, a vil­lage in Karth, which looks like it’s being used Mabb for, uh, for, uh, peo­ple in the min­ing indus­try. They’ve, they’ve kind of moved on though, [00:48:00] just from being able to build min­ing camps. And it was real­ly inter­est­ing look­ing at what they do in, in the area of what’s called mod­u­lar con­struc­tion.

So this is basi­cal­ly a build­ing or a house in a fac­to­ry and then tak­ing it to the site and installing it. there are lots of ben­e­fits that, uh, the least of which is, um, time. So quote, uh, some­thing like it’s, um, four weeks to build, uh, four months, sor­ry, to build a house and their fac­to­ry ver­sus, uh, um, 55 weeks for a tra­di­tion­al build.

So that’s a big sav­ing in terms of both cost and time. and they, they also point out it’s also a sav­ing to the com­mu­ni­ty because you. Don’t have, uh, as much con­struc­tion noise and vehi­cles, um, in the area, build­ing a, a build­ing from scratch. So there’s a few, quite a few ben­e­fits of, um, of this style of con­struc­tion.

And in the last 12 months, they haven’t just been build­ing hous­es. They built pri­ma­ry schools, [00:49:00] a wom­en’s shel­ter, a kinder­garten, 60 new homes, a com­mu­ni­ty cen­ter, sports chang­ing sports, ground chang­ing rooms, and, um, many oth­er demount­a­bles for, uh, leisure parks and things like that. So been doing real­ly well in the last, uh, 12 months.

And it’s cer­tain­ly opened my eyes to the idea of mod­u­lar con­struc­tion, which, um, know, is kind of flavour of the month now because of the, um, uh, focus on afford­able hous­ing the gov­ern­ment has. one thing that they’re tar­get­ing is to work with, uh. some­times char­i­ties, but local devel­op­ers or local gov­ern­ments, um, to apply for grants from the $10 bil­lion Hous­ing Aus­tralia Future Fund, which has been set up in the last year or so, a half.

uh, there’s, there’s some exam­ples on their web­site where they have work with peo­ple, par­tic­u­lar­ly in region­al and rur­al areas to build, um, low cost hous­ing quick­ly, uh, [00:50:00] for local areas. of course, the oth­er prob­lem that local com­mu­ni­ties face in the region­al and rur­al areas is access to trade, trades­peo­ple to, uh, do the work.

And so there’s ob often­times a back­log in rur­al areas to get things built, um, because the trades­peo­ple are either work­ing out west in the mines or they’re, um, in, um, you know, high­ly paid con­struc­tion work in the city. So, inter­est­ing, sort of, uh, com­pa­ny I think, Eh, build­ing, the actu­al build side of things, uh, is, is cer­tain­ly doing well for them.

And if I give you the fig­ures from six months ago, so they have changed a bit now, but to give you an idea of what the, um, the, the sort of break­down for the com­pa­ny is about $300 mil­lion of rev­enue and $2 mil­lion of prof­it comes from build­ing the mod­u­lar con­struc­tion. But about, uh, 30, only 33 mil­lion in rev­enue, but 11.5 mil­lion in prof­it comes from oper­at­ing these com­mu­ni­ties.

So they basi­cal­ly have two, sea [00:51:00] pool in Raha and Osprey in Port Head­land are gen­er­at­ing quite a bit of mon­ey. Um, the major­i­ty of their prof­it from the oper­a­tion of those, uh, com­mu­ni­ties, then they have their, their third. Busi­ness sec­tion called RV, um, recre­ation­al Vehi­cles, uh, which is com­prised basi­cal­ly of a com­pa­ny called North­ern and anoth­er one called cmic, which pro­vides, uh, builds, uh, acces­sories for the RV indus­try.

Um, that’s only $75 mil­lion of rev­enue and, and about $1.3 mil­lion of prof­it. And as I said, they’re all June 24 num­bers and they’ve changed since then. But, um, side had to take a bit of a restruc­tur­ing pro­vi­sion recent­ly ’cause they’re, they’re fac­ing high­er costs and, um, uh, low­er sales. And so they’re strug­gling a bit.

But, uh, the key, the key dri­ver met­ric for this com­pa­ny seems to be the occu­pan­cy rate for Sea Rip­ple and Osprey. So that’s some­thing if investors want to, um, track a met­ric for how they’re going, have a look [00:52:00] at how, uh, occu­pan­cy is going in the, in the com­mu­ni­ties that they man­age for Fleet­wood. I turned 60 last year.

So it start­ed in 1964 and it was start­ed in, in the back­yard, uh, build­ing car­a­vans. And the car­a­vans, uh, went on to be built under the Coel brand, which peo­ple of my age will rec­og­nize. it took a while, but it list­ed on the ASX in 1987 and in the ear­ly two thou­sands, Fleet­wood acquired parts man­u­fac­tur­er, CMIC and the Wind­sor Car­a­van brand.

So a cou­ple of tried and trust­ed car­a­van brands, um, from my youth, uh, in their sta­ble. In 2004, uh, Fleet­wood con­vert­ed the car­a­van park­ing kartha into the sea Rip­ple. mod­u­lar home site and was using it for local work­ers and it’s still an oper­a­tion. Um, some, what’s that? Fifth, 11 years lat­er, 2010, Fleet­wood expand­ed to the West Coast ’cause they were start­ed off in Perth.[00:53:00]

They expand­ed to the West coast by acquir­ing BRB mod­u­lar homes 2014, fleet would built near­ly 300 afford­able homes in Port Head­land con­junc­tion with the WA gov­ern­ment, and they still man­age that, uh, that com­mu­ni­ty called the Osprey Vil­lage. in 2018, like this camp I, I’ll test to see if you’re awake.

In 2018, fleet would sold the Coral Mill and Wind­sor Car­a­van brands to Apol­lo Tourism and Leisure.

Cameron: Uh, when you, as soon as you men­tioned RVs before I was gonna go, when, when does Apol­lo tourism come into this sto­ry?

Tony Kynas­ton: So, yep.

Cameron: damnit.

Tony Kynas­ton: Pass and

Cameron: that any­more. They changed their name, did­n’t they? After, after we slagged them off enough on this show, they slagged off. They had to change their name. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: merged with a New Zealand com­pa­ny. Uh,

yeah. So they offloaded in 2018, so they’re doing well. PLO tourism took the hos­pi­tal pass. They’ve had some prob­lems in 2020. [00:54:00] Uh, they bought, uh, Fleet­wood bought Mod­u­lar Build­ing Solu­tions in New South Wales and became the largest mod­u­lar build­ing com­pa­ny in Aus­tralia.

And in 2019, they went back to the Well and pur­chased North­ern RV rais­ing $60 mil­lion. And I’m sure they should have, at, uh, how well things are going in the oth­er sec, oth­er sec­tions, and I’ll that up with their lat­est results, rev­enue is up 19%. So they’ve had, uh, a good year and these results came out recent­ly.

EBIT Rose from. 1.9 mil­lion to 18.3 mil­lion, half on half. So that was very good. Uh, there’s been a big boost to oper­at­ing cash­flow, which went from neg­a­tive 3 mil­lion to plus 24 mil­lion. Um, uh, but they did take a $6 mil­lion impair­ment to the good­will in the RV divi­sion, and they also incurred, uh, restruc­tur­ing costs to reduce the cost base.

Basi­cal­ly, made some peo­ple redun­dant in the RV unit. Uh, the div­i­dends increase from 2.50 [00:55:00] cents to 11.50 cents. That’s quite a big, um, uh, increase. And, and I made the note that, uh, that that’s a good sign giv­en that, um, direc­tors feel com­fort­able with the prof­it increase con­tin­u­ing. How­ev­er, I found out was the pay­out ratio was a hun­dred per­cent of net prof­it after tax, which is the fleet with pol­i­cy.

So it like­ly, it like­ly means two things that if they don’t, um. Con­tin­ue to make that kind of mon­ey, the div­i­dend will come down. but it also means that if they’re giv­ing out, uh, if, if they’re pay­ing out all their prof­it as div­i­dends, then the next time they wan­na make an acqui­si­tion, there’ll be anoth­er cap­i­tal rais­ing, or it’s like­ly to be anoth­er cap­i­tal rat­ing.

So that needs to be tak­en into account by peo­ple because, um, as we’ve seen from the, uh, excuse me, excuse me. we saw, I, I was chok­ing on my cap­i­tal rais­ing there camp as, as we’ve seen from the, the North­ern Rivers acqui­si­tion, they don’t always work out. Um, and, and the oth­er thing [00:56:00] about cap­i­tal rais­ings is they often, they some­times occur when you’re not ready to put the mon­ey in.

So can be, um. A dif­fi­cult one for some­times for investors. So if I, if I have the MD here, I ques­tion him on why there’s a hun­dred per­cent of impact being paid out. I would like to per­son­al­ly see less being paid out as div­i­dends and more being banked, to fund future acqui­si­tions or what­ev­er else they need in the way of CapEx.

that’s, um, a bit of a back­ground on Fleet­wood and what they do. QAV num­bers, I’m using a price of $2 71, which is 97% of con­sen­sus. Tar­get IV one is 58 cents, iv two is $3 and 5 cents, so we can buy them for less than IV two. Uh, yield is is good, 5.17%, but a lit­tle bit less than what we need to score on the check­list.

Doc­tor finan­cial health and trend is strong and steady. Stock Edia qual­i­ty rank is 91, which is good. And over­all 98, which is excel­lent too. Uh, f score in stock [00:57:00] Edia is sev­en out of nine, which is quite high. Um, so Stock Edia uh, gives it ticks. for this com­pa­ny is 21, which is a lit­tle bit high, but it’s the low­est in the last three years.

And they haven’t had a PE for all of the last three years. The three years ago they weren’t mak­ing mon­ey. So we can only com­pare it for the last two years, but it is the low­est in those, uh, last, uh, two peri­ods. Pr/OpCaf is five point, uh oh six times, so that’s very good. Net equi­ty per share is a dol­lar 79 and plus 30 is $2 33 plus 30%.

So, uh, again, slight­ly low­er than the share price, so we can’t buy it for book val­ue. Uh, fore­cast earn­ings per share growth, how­ev­er, is 166%. earn­ings per share over, uh, earn­ings per share growth over PE is, uh, very high 6.9 times. So this is one of the cas­es where we have a growth stock on the val­ue bor­row list.

So that’s, um, thing, which does­n’t always occur, but, [00:58:00] um, bodes well. So I guess a score of two for the fact that the fore­cast earn­ings per share growth is so high. does­n’t have an own­er founder. Um, was found­ed by, uh, a chap in his back­yard in Perth in 1964, but, um, he’s no longer a share­hold­er.

Uh, it does have a recent upturn since the last results and, but does­n’t have con­sis­tent­ly increas­ing equi­ty. So all in all, the com­pa­ny gets 13 out of 16 for qual­i­ty or 81%. So kind of sim­i­lar to the Stock­o­pe­dia rank­ing and the QAV score is 0.16. So it’s a, sort of mid­point on the buy list risks and oppor­tu­ni­ties.

Well, um, think there’s always a risk of a cap­i­tal rais­ing if you’re pay­ing out all your prof­it, as, uh, as div­i­dends. So I, I see that as a risk. It’s, some peo­ple may not, if they’re hap­py to stump up next time, um, this com­pa­ny goes shop­ping, but I don’t like it myself per­son­al­ly. Uh, oth­er risk is depen­den­cy on the [00:59:00] vil­lage occu­pan­cy rates.

Um. In Osprey and the oth­er place at Kartha, uh, requires con­tin­ued invest­ment in main­te­nance and, uh, upgrades to keep them attrac­tive. So that seems to be work­ing for them now, so I can’t com­plain about that, but it, it might become a risk as the, the homes age, uh, risk of a down­turn the min­ing boom, um, will affect occu­pan­cy in Port Head­land and raha.

So, I would, if I was again, talk­ing to the MD of this com­pa­ny, I’d ask them, uh, do they have plans to diver­si­fy away from min­ing areas? Uh, some­thing in a, anoth­er, rur­al area might, um, help to help ’em to do that. Um, or if they pick up fund­ing from the gov­ern­ment through the half fund and they can per­haps even build some­thing on, uh, the out­skirts of a city.

Which might be attrac­tive to peo­ple if they can run it, um, then, um, that might be a diver­si­fi­ca­tion away from a min­ing town. [01:00:00] Uh, so that’s an oppor­tu­ni­ty for them. I see the act to access the half fund, um, and, uh, more con­struc­tion and poten­tial­ly, um, man­age­ment rights from, uh, build­ing those kinds of com­mu­ni­ties.

And the oth­er oppor­tu­ni­ty, which they’ve talked about but haven’t done yet, is to get into the build to rent space. So there’s been some law changes recent­ly, or maybe they’ve moved. They, they’ve hap­pened, uh, allow­ing, uh, com­pa­nies to build apart­ments or hous­es and then rent them out with­out ever sell­ing them.

it’s a mod­el which, uh, I saw in Cana­da. I was­n’t always a fan of it, um, because. Over the years, uh, you know, apart­ment blocks in the build to rent sec­tor can get quite run down because of the, the imper­a­tive on the com­pa­nies run­ning them to get a return and to spend as lit­tle as pos­si­ble on, on main­te­nance, CapEx and main­te­nance costs.

They can, they can become, um, uh, quite run down over time. Um, you know, so I’m hop­ing what hap­pens in [01:01:00] Aus­tralia learns from that. And there are, there are appro­pri­ate rules and reg­u­la­tions in place. But any­way, that aside build to rent would be an oppor­tu­ni­ty for this com­pa­ny. So that’s, um, Fleet­wood, it’s, uh, it’s doing well at the moment.

Cameron: Mm. Yeah. And we, uh, hold them in one of the light port­fo­lios. Bought them back in March at $2 40. They’re up about 15% since then. So that’s not bad for a cou­ple of months,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: months. Doing very well. Thank you, tk. That’s it. After hours, I went with my boys to see bal­le­ri­na last night. Heard about bal­le­ri­na.

Tony Kynas­ton: have not. No.

Cameron: It’s new, uh, spin­off from the John Wick uni­verse

Tony Kynas­ton: I’ve heard

Cameron: I. Anna, uh, Amis, I think her name is as the lead. So a female led John Wick film. Lots of [01:02:00] over the top ridicu­lous, uh, shootouts and knife fights and throw fights, and, uh, just over the top. And we all enjoyed it. It was good. Real­ly, if you like the John Wick films, which I do, it’s, uh, done by the same team, the same lev­el of qual­i­ty, and she’s great.

Anna Armas, what­ev­er her name is, gor­geous and, you know, pulls it off like the fight scenes. It’s, gets beat­en around a lot and goes hard and it’s got all the cast, you know, from the John Wick films. Ian McShane, Lance Red­dick, uh, was in it too, like before he died. Lance Red­dick shot this. Angel­i­ca Hous­ton, who’s look­ing real­ly weird. Dun­no what kind of work she’s had done, but, uh, it’s not, not

Tony Kynas­ton: That’s a

Cameron: And, um, yeah, and Gab­by Burn, Gabrielle Burn is the main bad guy in it. Haven’t seen Gabrielle burn for a long time, so it’s good to see him [01:03:00] back. Insta­gram, me too.

Tony Kynas­ton: What was the incit­ing

Cameron: Keanu has a cameo in it.

Tony Kynas­ton: some­one, shoot a dog?

Cameron: No, her father got killed when she was a child and she got tak­en into Angel­i­ca Hous­ton’s orga­ni­za­tion.

Ian McShane

Tony Kynas­ton: I.

Cameron: knew her father. Her father was part of a group of assas­sins. Ian McShane takes her to Angel­i­ca Hous­ton, who runs the that Keanu Reeves was part of. When she trains her to be a, she runs like a bal­let the­ater,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: her to be a bal­le­ri­na slash assas­sin.

Tony Kynas­ton: okay.

Cameron: I’m still not sure what the point of train­ing them as bal­leri­nas is.

’cause she nev­er appar­ent­ly, ’cause one of the sort of sub­plots is her best friend in the bal­let school. Does­n’t make the cut as an assas­sin, but ends up with the lead in the per­for­mance of Swan Lake, which the main char­ac­ter goes and sees at some point. So if you don’t make it as an assas­sin, you, you can become a world class bal­le­ri­na any­way. But, uh, she [01:04:00] becomes an assas­sin. But it is good. It’s a lot of fun. Can rec­om­mend

Tony Kynas­ton: some­thing to fall back on.

Cameron: Yes. Some­thing to fall. You can fall back on your bal­let skills if you can’t make it in the cut­throat world of pro­fes­sion­al assas­sins. But it’s like, I, I just love the, the arti­fice, uh, of the whole John Wick thing where, you know, every­body is an assas­sin. She’s the, the main chicks at this. Um. Per­for­mance of Swan Lake when it’s decid­ed that, uh, she’s actu­al­ly on the outs and there’s a boun­ty put on her head. So there’s a boun­ty of like $4 mil­lion put on her head, and it goes out to the assas­sin net­work. And you see like every third per­son in the the­ater watch­ing Swan Lake, their phones go off and they look at it and they’re like, aha. So the world is full of going to Swan Lake, who are real­ly assas­sins, just bit­ing their time, wait­ing for a con­tract.

Tony Kynas­ton: the bal­leri­nas got

Cameron: so yeah, it was fun.

Tony Kynas­ton: Check their phones dur­ing [01:05:00] the

Cameron: That would’ve been good. Yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh

Cameron: no, it was fun. It was good stuff. Yeah. Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Nice.

Cameron: What about you?

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, have you seen Depart­ment Q yet? That’s come out on Net­flix in the last cou­ple of weeks.

Cameron: No. What is that?

Tony Kynas­ton: good. Uh, it, it’s a, it’s a Scot­tish remake of a Scan­di­na­vian noir or book. Um,

it’s, it’s good.

Um, it’s a cold case series. Uh, the lead detec­tive gets his, gets shot in the open­ing scenes and then comes back and, uh, isn’t seen to be well enough ’cause of PTSD or what­ev­er to be back on active duty. So they set up a cold case depart­ment in the base­ment and give it to him, and he goes off and solves the case, um, with a, you know, a cou­ple of rag­tag peo­ple help­ing him.

But, um, yeah, it’s, I real­ly enjoyed it. So, to Jen­ny, if you, if you like, uh, [01:06:00] Shet­land and those kinds of Scot­tish detec­tive sto­ries, it’s right up your street. But, uh, yeah, real­ly enjoy­able. Good watch.

Cameron: Hmm. Just look­ing it up. Rat­ings are pret­ty good. Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: that was good. Um,

Cameron: what else?

Tony Kynas­ton: uh, and last night I watched the com­plete unknown got round to watch­ing that. Have you seen that Tim­o­thy Shaima, Bob Dylan biopic?

Cameron: the Bob Dylan biopic. No, not yet. They’re good.

Tony Kynas­ton: good. Yeah. Real­ly enjoyed it. Um, I, I’m not a shal­low Mabb fan, but I think he did a real­ly good job in this. Um, and, uh, it’s, it’s basi­cal­ly the back­sto­ry to Dylan going elec­tric.

That’s how the, the movie ends at that peri­od. And all the upheaval in chang­ing from being a friend of Pete Seeger and Woody Guthrie Joan Baez to, um, to. more of a rock and roll band and star, uh, it’s, it’s good. John­ny Cash is in it. Woody Guthrie, [01:07:00] Pete Seeger, great, great betray­al by Ed Nor­ton of Pete Seeger.

Um,

Cameron: Oh yeah, right.

Tony Kynas­ton: but, um, the oth­er,

oth­er

Cameron: but.

Tony Kynas­ton: that the whole sort of back back­drop to the movie remind­ed me of cur­rent times in the us. I mean, they, a movie set dur­ing the free­dom rides, the civ­il unrest, the

of J‑F-K-R-F‑K, Mal­colm X, all those kinds of things.

um, it’s, it, it, I

if it set out to do that, but it cer­tain­ly, that was a point that was pushed home to me.

Cameron: I, um, yeah, I was talk­ing to my boys last night just about the analo­gies between what’s hap­pen­ing today in the six­ties. You know, I men­tioned this is the first time since 65, I think, that a US pres­i­dent has called in the Nation­al Guard with­out the request com­ing from a state gov­er­nor. Um, but how, you know, there was a lot of bad stuff going on in the US in [01:08:00] the six­ties, but it was a dif­fer­ent, there was a lot of dif­fer­ent. Things com­pared to today too. Uh, LBJ was a lot of things, um, that were bad. I’ve, I’ve read a lot of biogra­phies on LBJ and, uh, he was a bad, bad, bad, bad man, but he was­n’t Don­ald Trump. Like he was a dif­fer­ent kind of bad man. You know, he still believed to a cer­tain degree in the rule of law and democ­ra­cy and what­ev­er. It did­n’t run for a sec­ond term, et cetera, et cetera. But yeah, he was a bad dude.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: the sto­ry that, um, sor­ry. Go.

Tony Kynas­ton: no, I was just gonna say per­haps he obeyed the rule of law ’cause he did­n’t have Trump to patent him­self on. Did­n’t make he

with it.

Cameron: Well, the thing that I think a lot of peo­ple dun­no about LBJ is the. Day that Kennedy was assas­si­nat­ed. Cou­ple of things. Um, the Kennedys hat­ed LBJ, Bob­by and [01:09:00] Jack both hat­ed him. They were so, he was forced on them to be Jack­’s run­ning mate in the 59 elec­tion. They would gonna get rid of him. He knew that off the tick­et.

’cause Kennedy was gonna run for his sec­ond term. They were gonna get him off the tick­et. They hat­ed him and he hat­ed them. It went both ways and he knew he, this was his last shot, his dream since he was a kid, he was one of these guys when he was 10 years old. Told every­one he was gonna be pres­i­dent one day and had been his entire life.

And he knew that if, if he got kicked off the tick­et, that was it. He was too old to, to have any chance. And there was a mur­der tri­al going on that he was impli­cat­ed in the day Kennedy was assas­si­nat­ed. He, there was gonna be evi­dence brought for­ward in the tri­al that he was impli­cat­ed. ’cause he used to, you know, he was his sen­a­tor from Texas and he had, had, peo­ple had been whacked and he was asso­ci­at­ed with that.

A guy that worked for him went to jail for mur­der, like doing, peo­ple killed. [01:10:00] and he was invi, he was gonna be called as, uh, as, um, some­body who was involved in this. He was going to prob­a­bly end up in jail, con­nect­ed with this mur­der. But then he became pres­i­dent when Kennedy died. And, you know, no more was heard about it, it all went away, got buried.

So, uh, a lot of dirt on LBJ.

Tony Kynas­ton: And that was an

Cameron: Um.

Tony Kynas­ton: the, the movie too, the com­plete unknown. But there’s a scene where Bron­chos read­ing about the, read­ing the news, it’s the Russ­ian Mis­sile Cri­sis. Um, you know, and, and basi­cal­ly, uh, the pres­i­dent comes on and upshot is, uh. of New York think they’re gonna die overnight, that there’s gonna be a Russ­ian inva­sion, and the mis­siles are gonna launch and be a retal­i­a­tion.

And cer­tain­ly that’s how it, it appeared. If you lis­ten to Cronkite and JFK, um, so

Cameron: Ooh.

Tony Kynas­ton: looks out at his apart­ment win­dow and sees every oth­er TV set in the, in the city on say­ing the same thing. Sees peo­ple start­ing to flee in cars. You can’t get a [01:11:00] taxi. And he just grabs his gui­tar and walks down to the local, big, big club and starts play­ing gui­tar.

And there’s enough peo­ple in there as an audi­ence just, you know, sort of thinks if it’s my last night, this is how I’m going out. uh, Joan Baez tries to flee the city and hears the music and goes down and they hook up. And then the next morn­ing they wake up and Cronkite’s on the news again, say­ing, well, it was a cri­sis, was avert­ed and we’re, we’re safe again.

And it’s just like, you know, it was a great lit­tle para­ble of, of, uh, how to react dur­ing that kind of cri­sis.

Cameron: With Joan Byers. That’s That’s what she took her out of it. Yeah. I find music biopics like that, a hit and miss. Um, the John­ny Cash one that Wakim Phoenix did. I enjoyed, but queen one, I did­n’t like most of them, I, you know, they just seem to be two thin sliv­ers of some­thing and I don’t know,

Tony Kynas­ton: Well,

Cameron: res­onate.

Tony Kynas­ton: inter­est­ing you bring [01:12:00] up Walk the line. ’cause that’s what I would’ve com­pared it to. Uh, it’s in that,

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: good as that. It’s in that sort of vein. John­ny Cash is in it. Great part in it too. Um, real­ly, real­ly good. You know, drunk­en out there, rebel rouser, Cash. Um, there’s one scene where he gets up in the morn­ing and jumps in this big­ger big long car, which he’s parked at a diag­o­nal across a cou­ple of car spaces and, and, you know, tries to dri­ve out while he is drunk and he dri­ves into a car and revers­es into a car.

And, you know, and, um, this is why Bob Dylan’s try­ing to work out, he’s hav­ing a cri­sis of con­fi­dence as to whether he should head­line the final night of the new New­port Folk folk Fes­ti­val and plays new stuff or plays old stuff there’s kind of a motor through the film where he is off­sider, holds up an acoustic gui­tar and an elec­tric gui­tar and Dylan has to choose which one he’s gonna play that night, know, to, to

Cameron: Right.

Tony Kynas­ton: to go back.

And, um, and can’t remem­ber, what did John­ny Cash say? He had a great line about, um, walk­ing mud [01:13:00] onto peo­ple’s car­pet um, what he tells Bob to do. When he’s try­ing to out whether to play the new stuff at the New­port Folk Fes­ti­val, cash goes, kill him. Go and walk more on the car­pet. So yeah,

Cameron: That’s good. Well, stick­ing with music, I’m gonna rec­om­mend my Japan­ese girl band for you at

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay. You have to spell that.

Cameron: Mm, at think Atari, but with an a at, at ko I dis­cov­ered these because Ron Male from the, from Sparks, uh, was in Japan. They’re in tour­ing Japan at the moment, and he was inter­viewed Na two. Some of his cur­rent favorite bands were, he men­tioned this girl band. I thought Ron Male, who’s 80, near­ly 80, I think he’s 79, turn­ing 80 from Sparks as a fan, I’ve got­ta check him out.

And it did not dis­ap­point. Unlike the one that you rec­om­mend­ed to me a cou­ple of weeks ago, which I’ve thor­ough­ly [01:14:00] enjoyed this one, or, um, less Punky and more. Crazy ani­me theme song, uh, girl pop rock, uh, sort of hel­lo Kit­ty style, future Japan­ese ani­me sort of stuff. Um, a lot more light­weight and pop­py, but cra you know, that Japan­ese sort of crazy thing, you know, it’s like on some sort of Japan­ese mush­rooms, gaira kind of thing going on.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron: Yeah, they’re um, they, they’ve got a film, but they’ve got a song called Tokyo Call­ing, which is fair­ly recent, last, last cou­ple of years. And the film clip looks like, uh, the Beast­ie Boys inter­galac­tic film clip, like, robots and giant things over build­ings and all that kin­da stuff. So, any­way, good stuff.

And I’m read­ing Gor­bachev’s Mem­oirs at the moment. Which, uh, [01:15:00] is fas­ci­nat­ing. Um, like just hear­ing his ver­sion, he was a, he was a kid dur­ing Stal­in’s purges and, uh, dur­ing World War talks about both of his grand­fa­thers get­ting tak­en away in the purges, being accused of some­thing, some sort of, you know, crime against the Com­mu­nist Par­ty, both of which he said were ridicu­lous.

’cause they were com­mu­nists and com­mu­nist lead­ers in their vil­lages, and up poor in a, you know, vil­lage and repo and, and, uh, and they both came through it. These, both his grand­fa­thers came back. They both sur­vived the purges and came back. But, um, yeah, he was a very, very crit­i­cal of Stal­in’s rule, but a com­mu­nist, you know, uh, through and through Gor­bachev, a big believ­er.

And com­mu­nism just want­ed to fig­ure out how to make it work bet­ter, or social­ism make it work bet­ter for the Sovi­et Union. Uh, but yeah, inter­est­ing just [01:16:00] read­ing about his life in the thir­ties and for­ties and fifties he left uni­ver­si­ty and start­ed work­ing and try­ing to fig­ure out his, his place in the Sovi­et Union.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. I must

I read sto­ries like that, I can’t, I can’t count in it sta on what he did, even though the results may have been good for Rus­sia. I, I don’t think dean’s jus­ti­fied the means.

Cameron: No, but that’s why you’re not Stal­in.

Tony Kynas­ton: I said, yeah, good. not.

Cameron: Yeah. No, but you know, like, you know, Stal­in, um, prob­a­bly saved the Sovi­et Union. I mean, he can argue lots of dif­fer­ent ways, like the purge of the gen­er­als, et cetera, et cetera. They prob­a­bly would­n’t have been on such a bad foot­ing when Hitler attacked and Bar­bara Rossa. But the flip side is he defeat­ed Hitler, uh, and, you know, prob­a­bly saved the Sovi­et Union and prob­a­bly the Unit­ed King­dom [01:17:00] from the Nazis as well. Um, if Hitler had defeat­ed the Sovi­et Union as quick­ly as he thought he was going to, he prob­a­bly would’ve been able to con­cen­trate on the UK more than he could. Um, it was Stal­in’s absolute, bloody mind­ed­ness and abil­i­ty to move large sec­tions of the pop­u­lace into this direc­tion or that direc­tion before, as well as dur­ing the war that got them through it.

So he was, uh, a psy­chopath, but was prob­a­bly the psy­chopath they need­ed at that time. But you can argue, I mean, it’s arguable though, you know.

Tony Kynas­ton: ever know what a Gor­bachev would’ve done in the same sit­u­a­tion? Or a Churchill if he was in

Cameron: Yes. Well, Churchill was a psy­chopath as well. I got no time for Churchill. was, in many ways, just as bad, if not worse than [01:18:00] Stal­in.

Tony Kynas­ton: some days he was­n’t going out,

pop­u­la­tion to achieve ends purg­ing peo­ple.

Cameron: to the Indi­ans about that.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, good point.

Cameron: The Indi­ans were his peo­ple and he sen­tenced mil­lions of Indi­ans to star­va­tion and famine with stock­pil­ing food for the stock­pil­ing food for the British mil­i­tary in case they need­ed it and let­ting the Indi­an starve. And in his case, you know, well, that was the right deci­sion to make.

You have to throw one group of peo­ple under the bus in order to save anoth­er group of peo­ple that he thought was more impor­tant to the empire in the mid­dle of the war,

Tony Kynas­ton: and there

Cameron: know?

Tony Kynas­ton: bit of that going on with stolen too, as to, you know, who was Russ­ian in Inver com­mas and who was­n’t, who was Ukrain­ian or who was Pol­ish or who­ev­er.

Cameron: Well, yeah, but he was Geor­gian, so you know, he, and you know, guys like Khrushchev were UK Ukraine. He need­ed a lot of time for Khrushchev. I don’t, you know, yeah, it was, it was a, it was a cer­tain kind of, [01:19:00] um, math that both of those guys did that, you know, they did what they thought was nec­es­sary for the sur­vival of their coun­try.

Tony Kynas­ton: true.

Cameron: Any­way, very inter­est­ing guy, and I’ve read lots of books about him and his time in pow­er and what he was try­ing to do. Uh, uh, but I had­n’t read his mem­oirs before, but I’m, I’m enjoy­ing it. Yeah. Inter­est­ing per­spec­tive. Well,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yes,

Cameron: that, you and I have to go do an Amer­i­can show now and then you’ve got a hard out, so we’re gonna go do that.

Tony Kynas­ton: you.

Cameron: Thank you, tk. Thank you. Quite, have a good week every­one.

Tony Kynas­ton: you. Hap­py ASX.

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