QAV 745 — Sandbagging

QAV 745 Club

[00:00:00] TK: Okay.

[00:00:02] CR: Give me a one, two, three.

[00:00:04] TK: One, two, three.

[00:00:07] CR: Wel­come back to QAV 745. Is the episode num­ber, it’s the 29th? No, it’s not. It’s the 4th of Novem­ber. Uh, were you the pro­test­er at the Thom Yorke con­cert? Uh, the Mel­bourne Music Myer Bowl last week, Tony?

[00:00:24] TK: That was actu­al­ly the night after I was

[00:00:26] CR: Uh,

[00:00:28] TK: Alex and I were there the night before. Had a great

[00:00:30] TK: time, good

[00:00:31] TK: con­cert.

[00:00:32] CR: yeah, you enjoyed it?

[00:00:33] TK: Yeah, it’s um, I did­n’t know much about Tom Yorke, uh, and uh, it was kind of half art instal­la­tion and half con­cert, like he had. And he was just by him­self, which I also did­n’t know he would do. I mean,

[00:00:48] CR: Mm. Hm. Mm.

[00:00:50] TK: there were lots of rabid fans there who kept cheer­ing and hol­ler­ing and, but um, and he was quite fun­ny too, um, some­one yelled out, some­one yelled out, uh, I love you Tom York and he came back with, thank you, but I’m a bit busy at the moment,

[00:01:05] TK: as he was sort of blab­bing about,

[00:01:07] TK: about four cents at

[00:01:08] TK: once.

[00:01:09] CR: ha ha ha ha ha ha. Ah, nice. Got a favourite Radio­head or Thom Yorke track?

[00:01:18] TK: I do, but I don’t even know what it’s called. Don’t even know what it’s called, but it’s very recog­nis­able.

[00:01:25] CR: hmm.

[00:01:25] CR: Mm

[00:01:25] TK: Um, you get a Z Encore at the end. And I went, ah, final­ly heard one I know.

[00:01:32] CR: Yeah,

[00:01:33] CR: I was like that

[00:01:33] TK: Yeah, but it was good.

[00:01:35] CR: went to see one of Chris­sy’s favor­it­ed bands a while back. The Nation­al?

[00:01:39] CR: Yeah.

[00:01:40] TK: Love the Nation­al.

[00:01:42] CR: Yeah, you said that. I sort of slept through most of it. They played one track that I knew. I was like, oh, yeah, that one. Yeah, I know that one. Yeah.

[00:01:52] CR: Alright.

[00:01:53] TK: them. Yeah, I real­ly like the Nation­al, I’ve seen them, I saw them in Toron­to, they were good.

[00:01:58] TK: But they’re not much love, I mean, the guy stands at the front and stares at his shoes the whole time.

[00:02:02] TK: Yeah,

[00:02:02] CR: Yeah, and again, bit sort of art instal­la­tion y. They had like, you know, lots of stuff going on, you know, visu­al things that were artis­ti­cal­ly and blah blah blah, which was nice. I spent most of the time just look­ing at the light show, I think.

[00:02:18] TK: yeah. Well, Tom, it was inter­est­ing, we were try­ing to work out whether Tom York had a record­ed show, whether, like, light show, whether it was gen­er­at­ed by com­put­ers or AI or some­thing. And I think it was the lat­ter, because there were, you could see the cam­era set up around him, and then, um, so there were lots of stands, at dif­fer­ent posi­tions on the stage.

[00:02:41] TK: So as you watch this, the audi­ence look like one screen and they must have had, must have been full of LEDs and there was lots of sort of com­put­er graph­ics that would take his face and then dis­solve it and morph it. Uh, so yeah, it was real­ly inter­est­ing. Had­n’t seen it before.

[00:02:57] CR: Hmm. Well, uh, we’re record­ing this a day ear­li­er than we nor­mal­ly do. Cause there’s some race on, I don’t know, some­thing hap­pen­ing, some horse thing this week

[00:03:08] TK: It’s prob­a­bly, prob­a­bly be a protest to there too.

[00:03:11] CR: Oh yeah. Pales­tine or hors­es or hors­es

[00:03:15] TK: Not a bad haul, but. Knock to the cup is what they call

[00:03:18] TK: them­selves.

[00:03:20] CR: Oh, okay. Uh, so we’re record­ing this on a Mon­day, not that it makes a great deal of dif­fer­ence, although there is a, there’s an elec­tion on, well, it won’t hap­pen until Tues­day night, our time, I guess. Wednes­day, our time.

[00:03:36] TK: Yeah, but it’s going to be stolen. So it won’t, won’t mat­ter.

[00:03:40] CR: way. Either

[00:03:41] TK: Yeah. And there’s a secret deal done between the Speak­er of the House and one of the

[00:03:45] TK: can­di­dates.

[00:03:46] CR: Right.

[00:03:48] TK: You heard about

[00:03:48] TK: that?

[00:03:49] CR: No.

[00:03:52] TK: So there’s a cou­ple of, I don’t know all the details and ins and outs, but the Speak­er of the House is a Repub­li­can and there’s a cou­ple of dis­cre­tions he has. Like if there’s a tie, he has to cer­ti­fy who wins.

[00:04:05] CR: Right.

[00:04:06] TK: And there’s some oth­er things about, like, how late you can vote, because a lot of the elec­torates in the US, strange­ly enough, have anoth­er two weeks to vote past elec­tion day.

[00:04:16] CR: Right.

[00:04:16] TK: must, they must like back­ing the win­ner. They wait to see who’s elect­ed. Maybe they don’t want to cur­ry the favour of the new pres­i­dent for grants, and, um, so he or she favours them. But any­way. Yeah, so, um, um, Trump reck­ons it’s in the bag because he’s got this secret agree­ment with the Speak­er of the House to, uh, to endorse him any­way.

[00:04:40] CR: Right. Well, we’ll see what hap­pens either way, whichev­er way it plays out. I think it’s going to be just a shit show. So,

[00:04:48] CR: uh,

[00:04:49] TK: yeah. Yeah. Trump was already on the news today say­ing that the vot­ing machines were bro­ken and you could­n’t trust them. So he’s just sow­ing some seeds.

[00:05:02] TK: Yeah.

[00:05:03] CR: let’s, let’s see if Fox goes along for the ride this time. Cause the last time they went along with that line, I think it cost them a bil­lion dol­lars in fines.

[00:05:10] TK: mm. It did. It did. Yeah. And, uh,

[00:05:14] TK: there’s also

[00:05:15] TK: some­thing

[00:05:16] CR: mov­ing right

[00:05:16] CR: along.

[00:05:17] TK: Cam. It’s the RBA. meets

[00:05:21] TK: on Cup Day.

[00:05:22] CR: Is that allowed?

[00:05:23] TK: day board

[00:05:24] TK: meet­ing in

[00:05:24] CR: isn’t there a law

[00:05:25] TK: it’s a pub­lic hol­i­day. Well, they’re based in Syd­ney, so there’s no pub­lic hol­i­day in

[00:05:28] TK: Syd­ney.

[00:05:29] CR: Right. And,

[00:05:31] TK: a good media strat­e­gy because they announce at 2.

[00:05:35] TK: 30 what’s hap­pen­ing with rates and a lot of peo­ple are look­ing at the straight at Flem­ing­ton at 2. 30

[00:05:40] TK: on Tues­day.

[00:05:41] TK: Yeah.

[00:05:42] CR: The race that stops a coun­try and they’re like, we’ll just slide our announce­ment in when the coun­try stopped. Yeah.

[00:05:48] TK: Yeah.

[00:05:49] CR: And what do you, what do you pre­dict, Tony?

[00:05:52] TK: I don’t try not to pre­dict any­thing,

[00:05:55] TK: Cam. Uh,

[00:05:56] CR: what, that’s not what it says in our notes for today.

[00:05:59] TK: My tip is that there’ll be no change to inter­est

[00:06:02] TK: rates.

[00:06:03] CR: isn’t that a pre­dict

[00:06:04] TK: Yeah, well, yeah, it’s not offi­cial. It’s an unof­fi­cial tip,

[00:06:08] CR: unof­fi­cial, an

[00:06:10] TK: which echoes, which all I’m doing is echo­ing the report­ing I’ve read. So I’ve got real­ly no idea. I think they should cut inter­est rates. I think that, um, uh, what­ev­er infla­tion has left is, is, you know, it’s already on the way down and clear­ing itself.

[00:06:24] TK: So I think they’ve gone too high and too hard and all the rest of it.

[00:06:27] TK: But I think, I also think the real­i­ty is they’ll wait till next year.

[00:06:31] CR: Right. All right. Well, we’ll see

[00:06:34] CR: what

[00:06:35] TK: Damn them, they’ll be con­sis­tent.

[00:06:37] CR: Is it Michelle?

[00:06:39] TK: Yeah, Michelle Bul­lock.

[00:06:41] CR: That’s right.

[00:06:43] TK: Yeah, and we may have a horse rac­ing tomor­row, per­fect, but she’ll prob­a­bly race on Thurs­day on

[00:06:47] TK: Oaks Day now instead.

[00:06:49] CR: Oh, okay.

[00:06:51] TK: That was my

[00:06:51] TK: focus for

[00:06:52] TK: tomor­row.

[00:06:53] CR: yeah, I thought that’s why we were doing this for tomor­row. Cause you were going to be at Flem­ing­ton.

[00:06:58] TK: Yeah, um, it may still hap­pen, they won’t decide until tomor­row

[00:07:02] TK: morn­ing.

[00:07:03] CR: Oh, okay. What’s that based on?

[00:07:05] CR: The course or the

[00:07:06] CR: horse?

[00:07:07] TK: tomor­row morn­ing they’ll see if there’s like­ly to be or if there has been lots of scratch­ings in the race. If that affects how easy or hard it is to com­pete. Because we’ve drawn the widest bar­ri­er, so it’s going to be a tough ask on the horse any­way. Uh, so they’ll prob­a­bly, they’ve got an email today say­ing they’ll prob­a­bly go on a scratch and go to Thurs­day.

[00:07:29] TK: So I think that’ll hap­pen,

[00:07:31] CR: Hmm.

[00:07:32] TK: they’ll wait till tomor­row.

[00:07:33] CR: Is that just like a ran­dom num­ber draw­er or like,

[00:07:37] CR: or is It based

[00:07:38] CR: on? Yeah.

[00:07:39] CR: Okay. Not based

[00:07:42] TK: So for things like the Mel­bourne

[00:07:44] CR: full of cash that you give to

[00:07:46] TK: well, if it is, um, I haven’t paid enough cause we’ve got the widest bar­ri­er.

[00:07:53] CR: Right.

[00:07:54] TK: I’m not a big fan of, you know, Bar­ri­er draws affect­ing whether we run or not, but in the case of draw­ing 17, it’s um, yeah, that does start to have an impact on how the horse has to run.

[00:08:04] TK: Oh,

[00:08:06] CR: Okay. Well, should we talk about stocks now?

[00:08:11] TK: I want you to talk about cycling for a while, since you’ve been up since five

[00:08:14] TK: o’clock.

[00:08:16] CR: I told Tony off air that I was up at 5. 30 this morn­ing, on the bike by six, did a three hour ride, and I’m feel­ing deplet­ed. a nap before, had a lit­tle sies­ta before this for 20

[00:08:30] CR: min­utes.

[00:08:31] TK: Oh, sor­ry to wake you. You can just, I’ll take over if you like. You just hit the record

[00:08:36] TK: but­ton.

[00:08:37] CR: yeah. And Tony sug­gest­ed I just have AI do my bit. Um,

[00:08:42] CR: well, I’ve only real­ly got one note to talk about today. I mean, the mar­ket was down a lit­tle bit over the last week, but did­n’t real­ly impact on our port­fo­lios a great deal. I think I did sell some­thing from one of the light port­fo­lios late last week that crossed a 3PTL, but, um, Oh, and it was this actu­al­ly, EHL.

[00:09:03] CR: Um, they. pub­lished their annu­al report on the 21st of Octo­ber. So, good, what, two weeks ago. Total rev­enue fell by 6%, um, with, due to the, large­ly due to the sale of the under­ground con­tract min­ing port­fo­lio, which reduced under­ground rev­enue by 50%. Sur­face rental and work­shop rev­enues increased, but the over­all Decrease might have raised con­cerns about future rev­enue streams.

[00:09:39] CR: Um, there was a 6 per­cent rev­enue decrease, um, men­tioned on page 17, which seems to have tak­en a toll on it. The shares sort of kept drop­ping after this came out until they crossed our 3PTL. Free cash flow gen­er­a­tion improved. Total debt increased by 11%. Um, there was this men­tion in their report about a cap­i­tal man­age­ment shift.

[00:10:07] CR: Ami­co has decid­ed to sus­pend its cap­i­tal man­age­ment pro­gram to focus on reduc­ing debt rather than return­ing cap­i­tal to share­hold­ers. So they declared there’d be no div­i­dends for FY24. Um, that may have had an impact. On their hold­ing, uh, com­mod­i­ty prices have been volatile. Um, what else did I see? Oh, cost infla­tion, com­pet­i­tive labour, labour mar­ket men­tioned.

[00:10:37] CR: Any­way, so I think we’ve talked about Ami­co, um, in the not too dis­tant past, but, uh, that report came out and their shares took a bit of a beat­ing. Have you, um, seen any­thing more about them?

[00:10:52] TK: I haven’t, but I prob­a­bly would­n’t have gone to the annu­al report because it would have been, I’m guess­ing it would have been issued at the same time as their AGM. And that’s often the big dri­ver of things. Because the num­bers you spoke about there, would have been known when the results were announced before the Annu­al report was put togeth­er.

[00:11:16] TK: I’m just try­ing to look at what they said at their AGM.

[00:11:20] CR: Well, this was the annu­al report to share­hold­ers. It came out on the 21st of Octo­ber. That’s where I was get­ting it from.

[00:11:29] TK: Yeah. So at the same time, they’ve also, um, they do a pre­sen­ta­tion. They do a, um, they do a, often­times at the AGM, they’ll, the chair will say, you know, for the first month or two of the year so far, the finan­cial year, uh, we’ve done, uh, bet­ter or worse than expect­ed. So I’m just look­ing at their pre­sen­ta­tion and they’ve giv­en an FY25 out­look.

[00:11:59] TK: It does­n’t real­ly say they haven’t guid­ed prof­it, they just guid­ed expect­ing earn­ings growth. That’s all they’ve said.

[00:12:05] CR: Right.

[00:12:06] TK: So I think your analy­sis is prob­a­bly right. They did sell off part of their busi­ness, but that was well sig­nalled. I think it went to Par­en­ti from mem­o­ry. But yeah, what, what I just per­son­al­ly, what I would look at rather than the annu­al report is what the chair said at the AGM at the same time.

[00:12:24] TK: Yeah.

[00:12:26] CR: So you did a pulled pork on them back in May. Just try­ing to fig­ure out when that was. Yeah. Okay.

[00:12:34] TK: Yeah, so I can’t real­ly add much more.

[00:12:38] CR: All right. Well, that was. My only real news for the week. Um, Gary, though,

[00:12:44] TK: news too.

[00:12:46] CR: eh, it was the one, you know, every­thing else is tick­ing along, but that was the one thing that hap­pened. Gary, um, post­ed some good news. Gary has been doing a Like keep­ing a port­fo­lio in Straw­man since 2020 using QAV and he post­ed his cur­rent results, uh, but I can’t blow up this image.

[00:13:12] CR: Why can’t I blow up this image?

[00:13:14] TK: Well, I can read it out if you like.

[00:13:16] CR: Oh, have you got a big­ger ver­sion of it?

[00:13:18] TK: Yeah, just print­ed it off before from your email.

[00:13:21] CR: Oh, okay.

[00:13:23] TK: Yeah, so he’s got, uh, since, so this is Straw­man. This is for peo­ple who don’t know it. There’s a, it’s a, A busi­ness which allows peo­ple to set up dum­my port­fo­lios and then every­one can see how well they’re going and what they own and they can use that to make invest­ment deci­sions if you want to fol­low some­one who’s done well.

[00:13:45] TK: Gary’s dum­my port­fo­lio on Straw­man goes by the moniker of Mae­stro Now, or one word,

[00:13:53] TK: Mae­stro

[00:13:53] TK: Now. It’s since July, Mae­stro, thank you, July 2020, it’s up 23. 6%. per­cent per annum. The last three months is up 22. 4%, the last six months 31. 2 per­cent and the last 12 months a whop­ping 51. 3%.

[00:14:11] TK: So he’s done well using QAV. Yeah.

[00:14:16] CR: You should come on the show and tell us why it’s up so much in the last 12 months. Gary, what, what are you hold­ing? What are you, you know, what did you, what are you doing? Are you fol­low­ing the rules? Are you ignor­ing the rules? Which ones are you fol­low­ing? Which ones are you ignor­ing? Um, but well done.

[00:14:33] CR: Yeah. And thanks for shar­ing that. That’s, um, tremen­dous, uh, last 12 months. I mean, I’ve, I’ve had an okay last 12 months, but cer­tain­ly not 51%.

[00:14:44] TK: No, that’s very good.

[00:14:45] CR: yeah. Either give us some more info or come on the show. Next week or some­thing, Gary, and fill us in.

[00:14:52] TK: so 23. 6 per­cent since 2020. It’s prob­a­bly bet­ter than our dum­my port­fo­lio’s done too, I think, what are we at, about 17?

[00:15:00] CR: Yeah, that’s 17, 18, I think. Yeah. Well, but it goes back a year more than that too. So July, 2020, you’re com­ing in at the bot­tom of the mar­ket pret­ty much, right? Cause the crash hap­pened the begin­ning of 2020.

[00:15:20] TK: March.

[00:15:20] TK: Yeah.

[00:15:21] CR: Yeah. So if I go back, if I look at, um, look at my lit­tle chart here. Yeah. So the mar­ket bot­tomed out in March of 2020.

[00:15:31] CR: and it actu­al­ly had recov­ered a lit­tle bit by July, but um, so at the end of Feb­ru­ary, 2020, The All Ordi­nar­ies was at 7 2 30, plum­met­ed down to 4 8 5 4 in March, by July it was at 6 1 4 8, and, uh, today we’re at 8 4 100, some­thing like that, 3, I think, today. Um, so, yeah, we, we, uh, came in a lit­tle bit ear­li­er than that. Um, we came in Sep­tem­ber, 2019 when it was at 6824, rode it up and then fell all the way down. So July prob­a­bly got in when we got in more or less like the All Ords would have been rough­ly the same, but the par­tic­u­lar stocks that he had might’ve, um, done bet­ter on the upswing. Any­way, either way, good job.

[00:16:33] TK: Yeah, great job.

[00:16:35] CR: Well,

[00:16:36] TK: got a cou­ple of things.

[00:16:37] CR: Yeah.

[00:16:38] TK: Yeah, pulled pork to do and a What Works on Wall Street update. to do

[00:16:45] TK: yeah so uh just hav­ing a look at my notes here before I do I did­n’t bring the piece of paper with me oh well it does­n’t mat­ter I just want­ed to also say that uh I was look­ing to at what com­pa­ny to do a pulled pork on today and I had a look at GTN which is on the buy list fair­ly high up Uh, Media Buy­ing Com­pa­ny, and when I start­ed to do some research on it, I saw that it was under a takeover offer, so just be aware of that if any­one’s look­ing at GTN.

[00:17:16] CR: Hmm. Okay.

[00:17:17] TK: so I’m going to revis­it Cred­it Corp as a pulled pork today, uh, I did it very ear­ly on, so I’m going to say it was about 3, 4 years ago, uh, maybe even 5. But it’s tight, it’s been on and off the buy list, um, Been on a lot, uh, and I thought it was time to go back and do a revis­it to a cou­ple of things we’ve learned since, uh, the last time.

[00:17:47] TK: Any­one who, for any­one who does­n’t know, this is from the com­pa­ny’s web­site, Cred­it Corp Group Lim­it­ed is Aus­trali­a’s largest provider of respon­si­ble finan­cial ser­vices in the cred­it impaired con­sumer seg­ment. Our core busi­ness spe­cial­izes in debt pur­chase and debt col­lec­tion ser­vices. We pur­chase past due con­sumer and small busi­ness debts from major banks, finance com­pa­nies, tel­cos and util­i­ty providers in Aus­tralia, New Zealand and the USA.

[00:18:18] TK: We are com­mit­ted to pro­vid­ing finan­cial solu­tions deliv­ered respon­si­bly, etc, etc. So they, oh it goes on to say that they’ve been list­ed since 2000 and their lend­ing busi­ness respon­si­bly deliv­ers loans at mar­ket lead­ing fees and inter­est rates to a con­sumer seg­ment where choic­es are lim­it­ed. That’s one of the things which has devel­oped a lot more in the busi­ness over time.

[00:18:45] TK: So tra­di­tion­al­ly they’ve bought what’s called debt ledgers. Um, that’s when, uh, a bank or a util­i­ty decides that it’s cheap­er to sell off the remain­ing rump of col­lec­tions to a com­pa­ny like Cred­it Corp and let them, uh, try and col­lect the remain­ing mon­ey and col­lect more than they’ve paid for the debt ledger.

[00:19:08] TK: That’s the busi­ness in a nut­shell. Um, addi­tion­al­ly, Cred­it Corp real­ized that it had amassed a lot of data about the types of peo­ple who fell into that sit­u­a­tion. And so they start­ed, uh, proac­tive­ly lend­ing them mon­ey. So once they repaid their debt, they then said to them, you know, would you like a, uh, a loan or a cred­it card or any oth­er sort of debt facil­i­ty, since we have your repay­ment sched­ule, um, on our books and we know a lit­tle bit about you and we trust you to, to, um, refi­nance.

[00:19:41] TK: And that’s. Help­ful because if some­one’s on a debt col­lec­tion ledger, they’re prob­a­bly not going to have a good cred­it score. And Cred­it Corp does do work with these peo­ple to get them to get their cred­it scores improved once they’ve repaid. But then they can still find it dif­fi­cult to, um, to obtain cred­it for what­ev­er rea­son.

[00:20:01] TK: So Cred­it Corp has expand­ed into that mar­ket, which has done well for them. Bit of a rocky his­to­ry in the last few years. So Cred­it Corp does go up and down. Share price goes up and down, and it can fol­low eco­nom­ic cycles as peo­ple, as the econ­o­my dips and peo­ple fall on hard times, and there’s more peo­ple falling into this, this, this Uh, col­lec­tion sort of trap, uh, but it does also depend on whether the bank wants to col­lect those, uh, that mon­ey them­selves or whether it’s going to sell the ledger to the cred­it corp and for how much, so it’s always a bit of a dance, um, around that sort of issue.

[00:20:43] TK: Um. 12 months ago, so it was, would have been around this time, Octo­ber 2023, the com­pa­ny came out with a prof­it down­grade and it was actu­al­ly an impair­ment charge and they con­fessed to over­pay­ing for some, for some debt ledgers and I’ll read from the AFR at the time. Shares in Aus­tralian debt col­lect­ing giant Cred­it Corp have slumped almost a third after the com­pa­ny took a tum­ble on chas­ing mon­ey owed in the U.

[00:21:11] TK: S. Syd­ney based Cred­it Corp has a siz­able U. S. oper­a­tion, and more Amer­i­cans were dump­ing debt repay­ment plans, the com­pa­ny said on Wednes­day. It’s one of the risks in our busi­ness, Cred­it Corp CEO Thomas Bere­gi said. That squeezed fore­cast earn­ings by 10 mil­lion this year, and sliced into the per­ceived val­ue of how much it might recoup from big ledgers of U.

[00:21:32] TK: S. debt acquired in the past two years. Uh, it goes on about the impair­ment charge, and how the shares fell 33%.

[00:21:45] TK: I’ll read a bit more because it does open a lit­tle bit more on what Cred­it Corp does. Debt col­lec­tors such as Cred­it Corp can earn prof­its by buy­ing slabs of debts from cred­it card com­pa­nies or util­i­ties at a dis­count and then rip­ping more than they paid. But it takes a hit to those ledgers val­ue if col­lec­tion pro­jec­tions dete­ri­o­rate.

[00:22:04] TK: Uh, so, Bere­gi told the AFR that in hind­sight it prob­a­bly means the com­pa­ny had paid too much for the US ledgers. But he said, if con­di­tions had remained sim­i­lar to when they were bought, then such a write down would not have come. It’s one of the risks of our busi­ness, the envi­ron­ment can change, he said.

[00:22:21] TK: Uh, he argued that the pos­i­tive side was that ledgers for sale now would be at cheap­er prices, etc, etc. So, the last part of that goes on to say that, uh, Cred­it Cor­p’s Aus­tralian busi­ness was per­form­ing to expec­ta­tions. Cred­it Corp pre­dict­ed statu­to­ry prof­its for this finan­cial year should be between 35 mil­lion to 45 mil­lion, down from ear­li­er guid­ance of 90 mil­lion to 100 mil­lion.

[00:22:46] TK: And that was from Octo­ber 18 in the AFR last year, 2023. So, peo­ple thought they were going to make between 90M and 100M. They came out and said, we’re going to have to take a write down on the debt ledgers we’ve ever paid for, and we think prof­it’s going to be more like 35M to 45M. And the share price dropped to 10M.

[00:23:06] TK: Uh, 33%. Roll for­ward 12 months and we now know what their annu­al results were for the last finan­cial year. And the actu­al prof­it report­ed was 81. 2 mil­lion. So, hence the recov­ery in the share price. And the share price has gone from a low of about 12 up to around 17 today in the last 12 months. So, it has­n’t recov­ered to the highs of, uh, 13.

[00:23:33] TK: it was around or after COVID. It real­ly, the share price real­ly took off com­ing out of COVID, and it dropped down. But it has recov­ered quite a bit this year. And I guess the point I want to make is that this is what Thomas Bere­gi does. He takes a very con­ser­v­a­tive view of the mar­ket. on guid­ance and under promis­es and over deliv­ers.

[00:23:53] TK: So he came out last year and said 45 mil­lion and actu­al­ly made 81 mil­lion impact. So big, big dif­fer­ence. Um, some of the high­lights in that 2024 fis­cal year report, um, 80, 18 per­cent growth in the lend­ing seg­ment, net prof­it after tax. So that’s the cred­it pro­vi­sion part of the busi­ness that’s grow­ing. 24 per­cent growth in the con­sumer look, a loan book.

[00:24:18] TK: to a record gross clos­ing bal­ance of 445 mil­lion. So they bulked up on how much they bought to col­lect and improved U. S. oper­a­tional per­for­mance over the final quar­ter of FY 2024. Strong FY 2025 U. S. invest­ment pipeline secured. That’s, you know, they’ve called out a prob­lem and it seems to have solved itself, but solved itself par­tic­u­lar­ly in the final quar­ter of 2024.

[00:24:47] TK: Um, it goes on to say at the AGM, the out­look for the year ahead is for a return to growth, a record start­ing con­sumer lend­ing loan book, US oper­a­tional improve­ment and a sta­bilised Aus­tralian New Zealand debt buy­ing busi­ness will pro­duce NPAD of between 90 and 100 mil­lion. So he’s going back to the old guid­ance.

[00:25:08] TK: Uh, so my guess is, and I’ve seen this before, is that that will be an under promise in an over deliv­er, which he does a lot, but we’ll see. Cer­tain­ly the mar­ket thinks that the share price is going up. I think I just want­ed to, to read. The last sen­tence that was on in the prof­it announce­ment, and just bear with me, it’s a lit­tle bit com­pli­cat­ed.

[00:25:32] TK: So, at the mid­point of the range of 90 to 100 mil­lion fore­cast FY25 impact, that’s an increase of 17 per­cent rel­a­tive to FY2024. There’s a foot­note. Under­ly­ing MPAT is after adding back 45. 6 mil­lion for the US pur­chased debt ledger impair­ment report­ed in the first half of FY 2024 and sub­tract­ing 15. 1 mil­lion for the charge for the change in esti­mat­ed PDL col­lec­tion life from six to eight years to the statu­to­ry end pad of 50.

[00:26:11] TK: 7 mil­lion dol­lars. So I guess I want­ed to high­light that because I think it’s impor­tant to see that the fore­cast prof­it and I guess to a cer­tain extent the actu­al prof­it has a lot of mov­ing parts in it and there’s a fair bit of man­age­ment input into what that num­ber is and so I think it’s impor­tant that In a type of busi­ness where that can occur, it’s good to have some­one like Thomas Pari­gi as a CEO who’s fair­ly con­ser­v­a­tive on, on how he accounts for those things, because all of those impair­ments and write backs, um, are at man­age­ment dis­cre­tion.

[00:26:47] TK: I mean, the audi­tors will have a say on that, and they have to con­vince the audi­tors that what they’re doing is cor­rect, but it is ulti­mate­ly man­age­ment, um, man­age­men­t’s, uh, Um, rec­om­men­da­tion as to what that should be. So, I think that’s impor­tant. Um, the oth­er inter­est­ing thing is that if you look at Stock Doc­tor num­bers on Cred­it Corp, they have, for as long as I can remem­ber, adjust­ed the fig­ures and moved part of the, um, the income into oper­at­ing cash flow.

[00:27:15] TK: Um, which is why it comes out on our buy list. But if you look at the num­bers that Cred­it Corp report, even though the prof­it fig­ures line up, they have less in their cash flow state­ment and they put it into, um, one of the asset lines, um, in their, in their busi­ness. So just want­ed to high­light that because we have had ques­tions in the past, why does Cred­it Corp and Stock Doc­tor look dif­fer­ent to the oper­at­ing cash flow and what they report.

[00:27:40] TK: And it’s also dif­fer­ent in Stock­o­pe­dia. So Stock­o­pe­dia. rank. Cred­it Corp as high­ly as what we do and as what Stock Doc­tor does. And to run through the num­bers, it’s a large ADT stock, it’s 1. 9 mil­lion on aver­age trad­ed, so it suits most peo­ple. The share price used for the analy­sis is 17. 17. But that’s, um, above both IV1 of 6 and IV2 of 13.

[00:28:06] TK: 70, and it’s also, um, above Net Equi­ty Per Share, uh, which is 12. 13, so we can’t score it for val­ue at the moment. It’s a bub­ble eval­u­a­tion. Scores. How­ev­er, it is 85 per­cent of con­sen­sus tar­get. So the ana­lysts who are cov­er­ing this think it’s um, it’s under­val­ued. Uh, on a yield basis, it’s only 2. 2%, so we can’t score it for that.

[00:28:31] TK: Stock Doc­tor finan­cial health is strong and the trend is recov­er­ing. So I like recov­er­ing stocks, we give that an extra score. Uh, Stock­o­pe­dia, how­ev­er, Give it a low health score. The F score is only 2 out of 9. So when I dived into that a lit­tle bit, it seems like the rea­son­ing for that is that Stock­o­pe­dia aren’t mak­ing an adjust­ment to oper­at­ing cash flow that Stock Doc­tor does, and there­fore it does­n’t score as well from a health per­spec­tive.

[00:29:00] TK: Okay, P is 14. 5 times, so it’s not the high­est or the low­est, So we can’t score it for that. Uh, Prop­Caf is, um, just under three times, so it’s very cheap on an oper­at­ing cash flow basis. Once, The adjust­ment is made. Uh, so three times is very good. Um, earn­ings per share fore­cast growth is 20%, but growth over P is only 1.

[00:29:25] TK: 39, so we can’t score it for the PEG ratio. I’ve always thought this was inter­est­ing, and I did meet Thomas Bere­gi many years ago. I did­n’t ask him this, I should have. Direc­tors only hold 1. 3 per­cent of stock. I always find that sur­pris­ing giv­en that Thomas Pari­gi has been CEO or MD for a long time and should have accu­mu­lat­ed stock over the years and, and, um, he has­n’t, um, does­n’t have any sort of mean­ing­ful hold­ing in the com­pa­ny.

[00:29:50] TK: Any­way, we can’t score it for hav­ing an own­er founder. It is a new three point trend line upturn since the results, so we can score it for that. And qual­i­ty, um, uh, total is 9 out of 16, or 56%. So it does­n’t score well from a qual­i­ty point of view for us, but it does when you take into account the Prop­Caf score on the QAV score of 0.

[00:30:15] TK: 19. So it does score well for us. Just to con­trast that, Stock­o­pe­dia give Cred­it Corp a rank­ing of 84, which is, um, it’s up there, but it’s not amongst their best. And they mark it down to a 65 for qual­i­ty. So that’s the Cred­it Corp update since their results.

[00:30:34] CR: Mmm. I’ve just been, um, Look­ing at my his­to­ry with CCP, I used to hold it in my super and also in a cou­ple of light port­fo­lios, but um, sold them about a year ago, Octo­ber 23, when their share price So, uh, yeah. mas­sive­ly crashed, um,

[00:31:00] CR: crashed from 21 bucks in Sep­tem­ber down to 12 in Octo­ber last year. I remem­ber us talk­ing about that at the time.

[00:31:10] CR: And it’s only back up to like 17. 37 now. It has been a lit­tle bit high­er, 18. 73 back ear­li­er this year. So they haven’t real­ly recov­ered, um, in the last, Year back to where they were in, um,

[00:31:26] CR: July to

[00:31:27] CR: sort of Sep­tem­ber 23.

[00:31:30] TK: Yeah. I sus­pect they were bid up a lot after COVID too. They went up to like 33 in the, at the end of

[00:31:38] TK: 2020.

[00:31:40] CR: them around 17. in Octo­ber. And yeah, the back to that now. So, um, it’s again, one of those exam­ples where the rule one sell saved, saved my mon­ey,

[00:31:57] CR: you

[00:31:58] TK: Yeah, well, you’ve had a year to invest in a dif­fer­ent stock and giv­en that the mar­ket’s up that over that last 12 months, I’m sure you were bet­ter off doing

[00:32:05] TK: it that way too.

[00:32:07] CR: Yeah. And we got out of them, um, as I said, in Octo­ber. Octo­ber at 17. They end­ed up in Octo­ber falling down to 12. So, you know, we got out rel­a­tive­ly ear­ly and, and rede­ployed those funds. So there you go. There’s a win for rule one at CCP’s expense.

[00:32:28] TK: Yeah.

[00:32:28] CR: right. Uh, by the way, the last time you did it as a pulled pork was episode 505, Feb­ru­ary 9th, 2022.

[00:32:41] TK: Okay. I thought I might have done it ear­li­er because it was on the buy list for a very long time and way back at the start, I think.

[00:32:49] CR: Hmm. You may have done it ear­li­er than that too. Um, so there you go. All right. Thank you, TK. What else have you got to talk about? Wows. W w w w

[00:33:00] CR: wows.

[00:33:01] TK: I do have a WWOWS to go through. I just for­got to men­tion one oth­er thing too. I noticed in the, when, um, Alex sent through the, the, the Excel spread­sheets today that looks like all of the com­modi­ties with the excep­tion of plat­inum are either Josephine’s or cells. So there’s not much hap­pen­ing in the min­ing space at the moment, which I found real­ly inter­est­ing.

[00:33:23] CR: Hmm. I know gold and ther­mal coal both became Josephine’s today

[00:33:29] CR: in her

[00:33:29] CR: list.

[00:33:31] TK: So I sus­pect things are tak­ing a breather, wait­ing for the US elec­tion to resolve itself. That, we’ll prob­a­bly see some com­modi­ties. Depend­ing on who wins improve, um, that might be the case. And if, if, you know, one or the oth­er can­di­date gets in and then decides to If we can some­how apply pres­sure to resolve Israel or, sor­ry, the Mid­dle East ten­sions or the Ukraine sit­u­a­tion, then that might help com­modi­ties as well.

[00:33:59] TK: But at the moment, they’re tak­ing a breather. And it’s not a great, usu­al­ly when, I haven’t seen this for a very long time on our buy list, and if I can’t recall the last time I saw it, but it’s usu­al­ly not a good sign for the glob­al econ­o­my. So, it’s basi­cal­ly say­ing noth­ing’s grow­ing at the moment, um, from a com­mod­i­ty point of view any­way, which means that peo­ple aren’t using the com­modi­ties, which means that growth should be low going for­ward.

[00:34:24] CR: The chances of. Either par­ty doing any­thing about Israel, uh,

[00:34:31] TK: Mmm.

[00:34:31] CR: zero to none ever.

[00:34:34] TK: the Ukraine too. Trump says he’ll solve it in a day,

[00:34:38] TK: we’ll see,

[00:34:39] CR: I, I think, you know, the, all the stuff that I’ve been read­ing is say­ing that they’re run­ning out of patience with Ukraine and, you know, that it’s going to result in a set­tle­ment, which is what Mearsheimer, guys like Mearsheimer have been say­ing for the last two and a half years any­way, it was always going to end in a set­tle­ment.

[00:34:57] CR: You know, it’s, you know, it’s just a war of attri­tion and it’s going to end in a set­tle­ment. And yeah.

[00:35:04] CR: Just,

[00:35:04] TK: yeah, but if they do man­age to get to a set­tle­ment rea­son­ably quick­ly, that, that may help some com­modi­ties. I mean, grain was affect­ed by, um, by the Ukraine war

[00:35:14] TK: when it

[00:35:15] CR: Yeah. And I think, you know, well, it’s hard to say, but my guess would be, prob­a­bly would reach a set­tle­ment faster under Trump than they will under the Democ­rats. But who knows, Kamala

[00:35:26] CR: might

[00:35:26] TK: Who knows,

[00:35:27] CR: take a dif­fer­ent approach to the

[00:35:30] CR: pre­vi­ous incum­bent Demo­c­rat.

[00:35:32] TK: Yeah, and who knows what the mil­i­tary indus­tri­al com­plex will do to Trump when he gets in.

[00:35:38] CR: Yeah. You

[00:35:39] TK: He can be swayed.

[00:35:40] CR: it. Yeah. What, the guy, the guy who hat­ed Elon Musk and is now his best friend can be swayed? The guy who was going to ban Tik­Tok and now he’s going to save Tik­Tok can

[00:35:50] CR: be

[00:35:50] TK: Yeah.

[00:35:53] TK: Did you see in the Fin Review on the week­end, some­one did an analy­sis, I think they were just reprint­ing an arti­cle from the US, but some­one did an analy­sis show­ing that Trump was worth about 6 bil­lion now, which was, I think, either half or a third of what he would have been worth if he had have tak­en his inher­i­tance and put it in an index fund.

[00:36:10] CR: I’ve seen that analy­sis, uh, for years, yeah, it’s, um, uh, Robert, uh, Robert Reich, I think has been push­ing that for years, yeah,

[00:36:21] TK: Okay.

[00:36:22] CR: yeah, no, no, no, no, no, no,

[00:36:24] CR: no,

[00:36:24] TK: Yeah, so that’s, I just want­ed to men­tion that. I will be giv­ing cup tips in after hours, although I don’t think I’ve tipped the cup win­ner since we’ve been doing QAV. It’s been a bad streak for me.

[00:36:35] TK: Any­way.

[00:36:36] CR: I’m gonna bet against your tips.

[00:36:37] CR: That’s how

[00:36:38] TK: Yeah,

[00:36:39] TK: put a line through it.

[00:36:41] CR: If I knew how to do that, I would do that. I don’t even know how to do that.

[00:36:45] TK: Well, Rod­dy’s favourite movie is called Let It Ride, which I high­ly rec­om­mend too, where Richard Drey­fuss goes to the track and picks the win­ner of every race. And the catch­phrase is, I’m hav­ing a very good day.

[00:36:58] TK: And we often say that to each oth­er. Um, but one of his, he uses a dif­fer­ent method of pick­ing a win­ner every race.

[00:37:04] TK: And one of them is he walks around the track ask­ing peo­ple for tips and then he cross­es them out of the form guide.

[00:37:13] CR: Uh,

[00:37:14] TK: Yeah.

[00:37:16] CR: good.

[00:37:16] TK: Yeah. Well, some­one who’s bet­ter at tip­ping stuff. What works on Wall Street with, uh, Shaugh­nessy. And it’s tak­en me two weeks to put this togeth­er. I did­n’t do one last week because it’s a fair­ly dense chap­ter, the one I’m up to, but it’s impor­tant. Uh, chap­ter 14 is called Account­ing Ratios. And, you know, peo­ple who’ve been lis­ten­ing up to date know that the ear­ly chap­ters are look­ing at the per­for­mance of, of, Com­pa­nies that are decile buy, how much yield they have, or how much stock they’re buy­ing back, etc, etc.

[00:37:50] TK: So now he’s get­ting into the ratios that you might see in some­thing like Stock Doc­tor, where you, if you click on the Stock Doc­tor, finan­cial health rat­ing. They’ll go through all their ratios for a com­pa­ny and there are things like debt to equi­ty and assets to lia­bil­i­ties, that kind of thing. So it’s a fair­ly dense chap­ter and it’s also a chap­ter which I’m hav­ing trou­bles con­vert­ing to Aus­tralia.

[00:38:19] TK: Now I don’t, I think there are glob­al account­ing stan­dards which apply both to the US and to Aus­tralia, but we may do things slight­ly dif­fer­ent­ly to how They do them in the US, so some of these ratios won’t get trac­tion here, but it’s worth going through because some of them are real­ly inter­est­ing and they’ve had good per­for­mance and some of them, um, are mid­dling and, um, inter­est­ing­ly enough, they’re ones which peo­ple hold out as being impor­tant.

[00:38:43] TK: So I’ll just run through some of them now. Uh, The first one he looks at is called accru­als to price and, um, the best decile on a CAGR basis for that ratio was 14. 3%. So it was pret­ty good, cer­tain­ly above the index. Um, but I, I can’t find a way of track­ing accru­als in Aus­tralian account­ing. So I’m going to have to park that one, but just so, um, by way of expla­na­tion, what he’s try­ing to do there is to look at com­pa­nies.

[00:39:19] TK: who book sales that they haven’t actu­al­ly been paid for yet. It’s called accru­al account­ing. So there’s two types of account­ing stan­dards and in Aus­tralia, at least, you can decide which one you’re going to adopt, but you have to stick to it. Uh, one is called cash account­ing and one’s called accru­al account­ing.

[00:39:37] TK: And if I can sum­ma­rize them, if I sell you some­thing and you pay me for it, and I book it, that’s cash account­ing. If I sell you some­thing, And I book it straight away as if you’ve paid. That’s accru­al account­ing. So I’m say­ing that, uh, I’m going to allow for the fact that the mon­ey’s out­stand­ing. So it’s got, it’s got to do with debtors and, and, um, that part of the bal­ance sheet.

[00:40:00] TK: And that’s poten­tial­ly, that’s what he’s talk­ing about. This, this could just be ter­mi­nol­o­gy here when he’s talk­ing about accru­als. But what he’s try­ing to say is he’s guard­ing against com­pa­nies that, uh, at the end of the finan­cial year. Say they’ve sold lots and that typ­i­cal­ly has been an issue in whole­salers.

[00:40:22] TK: So, uh, some­body who sells, um, ket­tles to, to Myer and DJs can give them a lot of stock at the end of the year and then say, and then book those as accru­al sales and col­lect the mon­ey over a long peri­od of time. So they kind of push the prob­lem into next year, but it does boost prof­it. This year, um, it’s called, it’s called pipe stuff­ing or ramp­ing or what­ev­er.

[00:40:50] TK: Um, and it, but I, I’ve got a feel­ing that the account­ing stan­dards here have caught, caught on to that. And they could have in the US too, because, um, what works on Wall Street’s not a new book. It’s been around for a while, so, but, um, there’s, there’s much less scope for that to, um, be a fac­tor here. So I’m going to skip over any­thing to do with accru­als.

[00:41:09] TK: Even though. It does per­form well. Uh, one thing which peo­ple have asked about over the years, so, is the debt ratio, so assets to equi­ty. Um, the best, uh, ratio there is, sor­ry, the best CAGR there for the best decile is only return­ing 11%, so it’s kind of, you know, Index like per­for­mance, so it’s not some­thing to focus on.

[00:41:32] TK: Asset turnover ratio, which is the sales over the aver­age total assets, per­forms bet­ter. The top decile there gets 13 per­cent CAGR, so that’s one to per­haps focus on. Cash flow to debt ratio. So, uh, it’s, the top decile there gets 11. 8 per­cent and the low­est gets 6. 5 per­cent CAGR. The best decile though is actu­al­ly in the mid­dle, which gets 15 per­cent of CAGR.

[00:41:59] TK: And that was some­thing else that, um, he found was debt to equi­ty, that, that it’s not the com­pa­ny which is low­ly geared that does bet­ter. It’s not the com­pa­ny which is overgeared that does bet­ter, which is, he’s just, you know, said there that they, they, Have a CAGR of 6. 5%, but it’s gen­er­al­ly the one in the mid­dle, um, which does well.

[00:42:20] TK: So you can’t be too con­ser­v­a­tive with gear­ing. So some debt is good and you can’t be less con­ser­v­a­tive with gear­ing. So I thought that was inter­est­ing. Debt to equi­ty, which is total lia­bil­i­ties over share­hold­er equi­ty. Again, uh, the, the best decile, um, was 11 point. Two, 2%. But it was, it was kind of sim­i­lar across the board and it was basi­cal­ly index like re returns, um, with the best decile being decile sev­en, which was get­ting 12%.

[00:42:50] TK: So he was­n’t see­ing much in the debt to equi­ty rank­ing. Um, and often­times. Peo­ple who talk about shares often ask what the debt to equi­ty is and what’s a good debt to equi­ty ratio, but it’s not real­ly com­ing up in his research as being impor­tant. What was more impor­tant was some­thing called exter­nal financ­ing.

[00:43:11] TK: Um, so I’m going to quote from some research, which he quotes. And basi­cal­ly this chap­ter is going through lots of finan­cial research, pulling out each ratio that some­one has done the research on and then test­ing it with his data. So Uh, exter­nal financ­ing is defined as cash flow from financ­ing over aver­age assets.

[00:43:31] TK: So we know from the, look­ing at oper­at­ing cash flow and the, in the cash flow report, there’s also invest­ing cash flows and there’s financ­ing cash flows. And so he’s focus­ing on that. And, um, the paper he was prompt­ed to do that, uh, buy was called The Rela­tion between Cor­po­rate Financ­ing Activ­i­ties, Ana­lyst Fore­casts, and Stock Returns, and that was writ­ten by Brad­shaw, Richard­son, and Sloan.

[00:43:56] TK: And those authors say, future stock returns are unusu­al­ly low in the years fol­low­ing ini­tial pub­lic offer­ings, sea­soned equi­ty offer­ings, Uh, Debt Offer­ings and Bank Bor­row­ings. And so, O’Shaughnessy, um, looked at all those things and he, he did­n’t use the full data set, which he often does, because the gran­u­lar­i­ty of data was avail­able for 38 years, but it’s still a long time to look at it.

[00:44:23] TK: Um, and he test­ed each of those occur­rences. His worst decile actu­al­ly lost mon­ey and had a CAGR of, um, 0. 6%, but the best decile, in oth­er words, the com­pa­ny with the low­est exter­nal financ­ing activ­i­ty made 14%. So that was, um, it’s a kind of a good thing to look at. Uh, he also looked at changes in debt. So the per­cent­age change in debt.

[00:44:49] TK: Um, and again, he found that the best decile was kind of index returns, but it was good to avoid the bot­tom decile. So some of these things are about avoid­ing stocks rather than pick­ing stocks. So that’s inter­est­ing. He looked at depre­ci­a­tion to cap­i­tal expens­es and a sim­i­lar sort of thing here. So what he was try­ing to avoid was com­pa­nies sand­bag­ging short term prof­it by not depre­ci­at­ing their assets quick­ly enough.

[00:45:17] TK: And again, I know the account­ing stan­dards in Aus­tralia have. Guide­lines, I’m hes­i­tant to say their rules because they do have ranges in them, but it’s pret­ty hard. Man­age­ment has a cer­tain amount of flex­i­bil­i­ty, but it’s pret­ty hard to go over the top but not depre­ci­at­ing your assets quick enough in Aus­tralia.

[00:45:38] TK: But it can, you can cer­tain­ly have some assess­ment into what your depre­ci­a­tion charges are. But he found that um, uh, the Best DSL was actu­al­ly 13 per­cent CAGA and the worst DSL, DSL 10 was 5 per­cent CAGA. So again, avoid com­pa­nies that sand­bag prof­its by delay­ing depre­ci­a­tion charges. He had a cou­ple of things which I found, again, dif­fi­cult to under­stand.

[00:46:04] TK: One of them is, um, Per­cent­age change in Net Oper­at­ing Assets, uh, and he defines NOA, Net Oper­at­ing Assets, as Oper­at­ing Assets minus Oper­at­ing Lia­bil­i­ties, so, um, makes sense. Uh, I’m not sure if it’s a ter­mi­nol­o­gy thing here and whether he’s talk­ing about cur­rent assets. which we took, which we have in our bal­ance sheets and cur­rent lia­bil­i­ties.

[00:46:27] TK: But, um, it could be the case. So I’m not going to report on those num­bers until I can under­stand them. Um, he also looks at, um, accru­als again, the total accru­als to total assets. But, uh, again, I can’t find in our account­ing stan­dards how to apply them. The thing which I, I want to, um, high­light and end on is some research he did to com­bine some of the above.

[00:46:49] TK: So as I said, a lot of these things. Good to know to avoid com­pa­nies. Some of the top deciles give index like returns and some of them out return the index but not by a huge amount. So he then looked at com­bin­ing some of these. So a bit like what Stock Doc­tor does in com­bin­ing all their ratios to give a finan­cial health score.

[00:47:10] TK: He picked four. Total accru­als to total assets. Per­cent­age change in net oper­at­ing assets. Total accru­als to aver­age assets. and depre­ci­a­tion expense to cap­i­tal expense. So he ranked each of those met­rics and assigned com­pa­nies into per­centiles accord­ing to how they score. So each per­centile is one per­cent.

[00:47:32] TK: He gave some­thing in the Best per­centile a score of 100 and the worst per­centile got a score of 1. And then he summed up the com­pa­nies and ranked, um, the com­bined total. Um, if some­thing did­n’t have a score, like he could­n’t score it, he gave it a neu­tral rank of 50. So, com­pound growth for Decile 1 was 16%, which is very good.

[00:47:55] TK: Decile 10 only, um, deliv­ered 4%, so it was a big improve­ment. Um, He then goes on to sug­gest that if investors had bought the top 25 of these stocks and rebal­anced every year, the CAGO would have been 18 per­cent from 1963 to 2009. So it’s cer­tain­ly worth doing some more analy­sis of this. I don’t, I don’t know where to find total accru­als.

[00:48:18] TK: I did some quick research and haven’t been able to, to find it. Um, so might not be able to use his research, but cer­tain­ly it’s pos­si­ble to take some of the. Best per­form­ing of those ratios and cre­ate, you know, a com­bined met­ric that we can use and per­haps use inde­pen­dent­ly of some of the ser­vices that we sub­scribe to, to look at finan­cial health.

[00:48:42] TK: So I need to do a fair bit more research on this, but he com­bined four of his. Um, ratios there and got 18 per­cent over a long peri­od of time. So there’s cer­tain­ly some­thing in that to take for­ward.

[00:48:57] TK: And also to shout out to the accoun­tants out there, if you can help me with some of these ques­tions, like how we find total accru­als in Aus­tralian account­ing, that would be real­ly help­ful.

[00:49:05] CR: Have you asked GPT?

[00:49:07] TK: I haven’t yet. No, I should. I did ask it the dif­fer­ences between US and account­ing and got a very long answer, which part for the moment.

[00:49:16] CR: Right. Um, did you want to talk about Paul’s email about share­hold­er yield?

[00:49:24] TK: Yeah. So if you, if you like. No, that’s okay. I mean, I’ve cov­ered share­hold­er yield in, I think it was last week’s show.

[00:49:32] CR: Yeah.

[00:49:33] TK: Yeah, but you can men­tion it if you

[00:49:34] TK: like. Sure.

[00:49:36] CR: Oh, well, Paul sent us an email say­ing that, um, he was read­ing a book that men­tioned, uh, share­hold­er yield. Let me just find his email. Uh, he says it’s a book by a U. S. invest­ing pod­cast­er, Meb Faber. It’s called Share­hold­er Yield Bet­ter Approach, and um, he said Chap­ter 7 was very inter­est­ing. The cen­tral argu­ment, backed by what looks like rig­or­ous back­test­ing, is that rather than look­ing at div­i­dend yield or buy­backs indi­vid­u­al­ly, com­pa­nies that score high­ly on share­hold­er yield pro­vide sig­nif­i­cant bet­ter results over long peri­ods, includ­ing in both up and down mar­kets.

[00:50:21] CR: Share­hold­er yield is defined as the sum of 1. Div­i­dend yield. 2. Net buy­back yield cal­cu­lat­ed as trail­ing 12 month stock repur­chas­es, stock issuance, um, over mar­ket cap. I think that is sup­posed to be stock issuance over mar­ket cap. Does that make sense?

[00:50:42] CR: Over

[00:50:42] TK: Yeah, so what, what share­hold­er yield is mea­sur­ing is, um, how much is being paid out back to share­hold­ers in div­i­dends and then how much is being bought back in terms of stock buy­backs, which is the change in shares times the, well, it’s the change in mar­ket cap, I guess, over 12

[00:51:00] TK: months.

[00:51:02] CR: So the stock out­stand­ing shares Divid­ed by mar­ket cap?

[00:51:10] TK: What’s, it’s,

[00:51:11] CR: that?

[00:51:12] TK: Uh, Stock Out­step. It’s real­ly how many shares are being bought back, but some peo­ple cal­cu­late it by just the total num­ber of shares. So like if you had 100 shares last year and you’ve got 90, then 10 per­cent is being bought back. And they fac­tor that into the cal­cu­la­tion, and some peo­ple say it’s 100 shares at a price com­pared to the num­ber of shares on the issue at a price.

[00:51:32] TK: So they’re, I guess, vol­ume weight­ing it to a cer­tain extent. And use that per­cent­age.

[00:51:38] CR: Okay. And the third thing here he says is net pay down yield, net changes in debt over mar­ket cap­i­tal­iza­tion. The out­per­for­mance of stocks with high­er share­hold­er yields makes intu­itive sense. These com­pa­nies have excess cash and are spend­ing it on some type of return to the share­hold­er. So, um, yeah. That was Paul’s feed­back on share­hold­er yield.

[00:52:05] TK: Yeah, so what works on Wall Street had a slight­ly dif­fer­ent cal­cu­la­tion. It did­n’t add, it added yield to buy­back. It did­n’t add the debt repaid. So, um, the, so Paul’s, Paul’s book is prob­a­bly more, you know, accu­rate in, in how much cash is being deployed by the com­pa­ny to the ben­e­fit of the share­hold­er. Um, and I think from mem­o­ry that what, what’s worked on Wall Street, the num­bers were okay, they were above index for Decile 1, I think from mem­o­ry about 13%.

[00:52:37] TK: Um, so up there, but not sort of, you know, Dou­ble mar­ket type num­bers, so it’s impor­tant. The oth­er thing I’d say is that, as we’ve seen, there are com­pa­nies which pre­fer to rein­vest in them­selves and don’t pay div­i­dend yield and don’t buy back shares and don’t pay down debt. Ama­zon springs to mind, which have done phe­nom­e­nal­ly well by rein­vest­ing any spare cash they have into their own busi­ness.

[00:53:02] TK: So, um, buy­back yield or share­hold­er yield is only one way of look­ing at com­pa­nies.

[00:53:11] TK: But it’s valid and it pro­duces above index returns, so I’m def­i­nite­ly sym­pa­thet­ic to look­ing at it.

[00:53:19] CR: don’t think in Paul’s email he did­n’t indi­cate what the author of this book said the return

[00:53:26] CR: improve­ment

[00:53:27] TK: he did­n’t.

[00:53:27] CR: just focus on these, so.

[00:53:29] TK: Yeah.

[00:53:30] CR: Paul, if it’s bet­ter than the, what works 13 point what­ev­er per­cent. Let us know.

[00:53:37] TK: Yeah. Um, that’s, that’d be good to know. Um, yeah,

[00:53:42] TK: I can leave it there.

[00:53:43] CR: Okay.

[00:53:45] CR: Is that it? After hours?

[00:53:47] TK: I think so. Yep. That’s all I got.

[00:53:49] CR: Well, bike rid­ing, we’ve talked about hors­es, we’ve talked about, I watched, um, a film called Demen­tia 13 this week. You ever seen Demen­tia 13?

[00:54:03] TK: Oh, look, I’m going to say no. If I had, I would have been in my teen years, prob­a­bly when I was mad keen on get­ting every­thing that, that was the Scors­ese movie, was­n’t it? Cop­po­la movie.

[00:54:14] CR: Cop­po­la. Coppola’s first film that he direct­ed, he wrote and direct­ed it, and the sto­ry is, he was a sound, he was the sound guy on a Roger Cor­man film that had some bud­get left over. So. 22,000 I think. And so Cop­po­la talked Cor­man into giv­ing him the mon­ey to make a cheap, cheapy film. Cop­po­la said, uh, Cor­man said write a script and Cor­man want­ed some­thing, Psy­cho had just come out.

[00:54:43] CR: This was 63, this was

[00:54:44] CR: made. Psy­cho had come out, he want­ed a Psy­cho rip-off. So Cop­po­la pitched him an idea, Cor­man said great, gave him the mon­ey. I think Cop­po­la raised some more mon­ey, kept it secret from Cor­man. In case Cor­man want­ed his mon­ey back or some­thing. Any­way, I watched it. Um, it’s com­plete­ly, a com­plete bonkers film.

[00:55:08] CR: Makes no sense. Um, I would­n’t, I would­n’t rec­om­mend it unless you’re a cop or a com­ple­tion­ist and you want to see every­thing that he ever did. I mean, it was inter­est­ing from the per­spec­tive of. You know, he wrote and direct­ed this. It was shot in Ire­land, I think, at a cas­tle. It’s, it, it basi­cal­ly starts off with a cou­ple, the dead of night, get­ting in a lit­tle row­boat for some rea­son out on a lake that’s attached to this cas­tle where they’re stay­ing.

[00:55:39] CR: It’s his fam­i­ly’s cas­tle. Um, there’s some ten­sion between them, hus­band and wife, He has a heart, he says some­thing about, if I die, you won’t get any­thing in the will, and then he has a heart attack and dies, and then she, um, does, she gets rid of the body, because she does­n’t want the fam­i­ly to know that he’s dead, because there’s a read­ing of a will gonna hap­pen or some­thing.

[00:56:10] CR: So she then man­u­fac­tures a let­ter from him in sort of Rip­ley style say­ing, Oh, I’ve gone back to Amer­i­ca. I think she’s Amer­i­can. I’ve gone back to Amer­i­ca for busi­ness. I’m sor­ry. I had to leave sud­den­ly in the mid­dle of the night, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And then peo­ple start get­ting mur­dered by an axe mur­der­er.

[00:56:31] CR: She gets killed by an axe mur­der­er. And most of the film, like, what, what, what’s going on? It’s, it’s, but it’s, uh, you know, eight years before the God­fa­ther, eight or nine years before he makes the God­fa­ther, um, you know, uh, and, and before he wrote and won the Acad­e­my Award for the screen­play for Pat­ton, um, but it was, it’s just kind of.

[00:56:54] CR: Stu­pid and messy and, um,

[00:56:57] CR: you know, you would­n’t have watched that and gone, this is going to be one of the great, this, this guy’s going to be one of the great film­mak­ers of the sev­en­ties and eight­ies. And I still haven’t seen Mega­lopo­lis yet, so I can’t com­ment on the 2020s, but Alex has told me that she loved it.

[00:57:12] CR: Sean hat­ed it.

[00:57:15] CR: So, uh,

[00:57:16] CR: yeah.

[00:57:17] TK: I haven’t seen it yet

[00:57:18] TK: either.

[00:57:19] CR: but that’s, that’s been the only thing I’ve real­ly, uh, man­aged to watch this week.

[00:57:24] TK: Well, Fox­tel, Fox­tel look like, um, so I was watch­ing some­thing on Fox­tel and it, it then gave me a list of. You know, rec­om­men­da­tions. And one of them, which I’ve nev­er seen before, was this long list of ear­ly Scors­ese films, sim­i­lar to Demen­tia 13 for Cop­po­la. And I’ve been work­ing my way through those and they are just dread­ful as well.

[00:57:45] TK: Like, often­times I’ll watch 10 min­utes and then turn them off. Um, they’re just good from the point of view of, uh, there’s one, I for­get now what it’s called, but one of, it’s basi­cal­ly a doc­u­men­tary about one of his mates, um, wrestling on the ground with some­body else. And, but it’s got. You know, Cop­po­la’s sort of pre taxi dri­ver, uh, you know, turn­ing to the cam­era and say­ing, Is the sound on?

[00:58:07] TK: Are we right? Are we good? Are we rolling? You know, and, um, so he’s, he’s, uh, in the, in the scene, but direct­ing at the same time. So yeah, so it’s inter­est­ing. It’s inter­est­ing to see these guys at the start, but the out­put is real­ly stu­dent lev­el at

[00:58:21] TK: best. Oh,

[00:58:22] CR: Yeah, you know, I, um, cause I’m watch­ing these on Plex, which seems to have all of, um, Cor­man’s cat­a­logue. I start­ed watch­ing a 1988 film called Crime Zone that he pro­duced, but did­n’t direct, star­ring David Car­ra­dine. And Cheryl and Finn, pre Twin Peaks, and she’s a, she’s a bot­tle blonde in this, and it’s some sort of, uh, you know, sci fi.

[00:58:53] CR: Helen and Bone live in a repres­sive, futur­is­tic, dystopi­an soci­ety they bad­ly want to escape from. Mys­te­ri­ous Jason hires them to steal a disc for him. It’s prac­ti­cal­ly a sui­cide mis­sion, but he claims he can smug­gle them any­where. Out in return. It’s got a 4.5 rat­ing on IMDB, but, you know, Car­ra­dine at the low point of his career, Cheryl and Finn at the begin­ning of her career.

[00:59:18] CR: And I thought, I’ll give it a go, but yeah, I’ll get about 10 min­utes into it. And I was like, yeah, I, I just

[00:59:23] TK: yeah,

[00:59:24] TK: yeah,

[00:59:25] CR: I love, I love a bad, I love a bad film, but even the, I was like, nah. Yeah, I just, I can’t , it’s too bad.

[00:59:33] TK: and lots of Cor­man films were like the open­ing fea­ture of a dou­ble bill or triple bill at the dri­ve in

[00:59:37] TK: too, as the cars were arriv­ing and

[00:59:39] TK: get­ting their pop­corn,

[00:59:40] TK: yeah.

[00:59:41] CR: Well, it just looks like a straight, uh, VHS, you know, uh, thing. Any­way, uh, yeah, sort of hit and miss with these sorts of things. But, you know, I’ve had a great run of, of Cor­man films, um, late­ly, like, um, that one with Shat­ner I men­tioned, which was

[01:00:00] CR: fan­tas­tic.

[01:00:01] TK: Mmm. Okay.

[01:00:03] CR: So any­way, and a lit­tle, lit­tle shop of hor­rors, which I just, the orig­i­nal, which I just absolute­ly loved, you know.

[01:00:10] TK: Yep. Did I men­tion Bad Mon­key

[01:00:13] TK: last week when I was

[01:00:13] TK: on the

[01:00:14] CR: You did. Yeah.

[01:00:16] TK: I fin­ished watch­ing that. That’s great. And Sea­son 4 of Slow Hors­es has just been released. So I’m watch­ing that too, work­ing my way through that, which is

[01:00:23] TK: good as well. Both real­ly good. Gary Old­man’s

[01:00:26] CR: can, I con­tin­ue to hear good things about, um, the Pen­guin too. Like every

[01:00:31] CR: review I read

[01:00:32] TK: right, yeah.

[01:00:34] TK: Still watch­ing that one too.

[01:00:36] CR: Hmm. Mm

[01:00:37] TK: only releas­ing that one episode at a time each week, so that’s a bit slow, but

[01:00:41] CR: Hmm.

[01:00:41] TK: got­ta wait. Yeah, that’s good. Okay, Cup Tips!

[01:00:47] CR: Hmm.

[01:00:48] TK: I should also say Indu­bitably ran sec­ond at Beaudesert on the week­end. Should have cycled, you should have cycled down to see it.

[01:00:55] CR: Beaudesert. Sure.

[01:00:57] TK: Yeah.

[01:00:58] TK: any­way, so that was good, bit of prize mon­ey. Um,

[01:01:02] TK: yep. I’m gonna tip Zardozi. And then to win the Mel­bourne Cup. Good odds, val­ue bet. Um, Rud­dy likes a horse called Sharp n Smart, which is even longer in the odds. And we both like a horse called Koval­i­ca, which is also a val­ue bet. Um, I think we both like Koval­i­ca cause we back it in the past and it did­n’t pay us.

[01:01:24] TK: So it owes us. So we’re going to go again. But, um, Zardozi is my tip this year for the Cup. We’ll

[01:01:31] TK: see how it goes.

[01:01:33] CR: Named after the 1974 Sean Con­nery Sci­ence

[01:01:37] TK: Zardozi. Could be. Could be. That was a

[01:01:41] TK: shock­er.

[01:01:42] CR: by John Direct, writ­ten and direct­ed by John Bor­man,

[01:01:45] CR: who did point, point, blank, and I don’t know, one of the

[01:01:51] CR: Exor­cist films, I

[01:01:52] CR: think. And

[01:01:54] TK: Um, like you had a hand in the script of Apoc­a­lypse Now at some

[01:01:57] TK: stage.

[01:01:58] TK: Yeah.

[01:01:58] CR: And Deliv­er­ance most

[01:02:00] CR: famous­ly,

[01:02:00] TK: And deliv­er­ance, that’s right.

[01:02:02] TK: Yeah.

[01:02:02] CR: of the great

[01:02:04] TK: Mmm. Mmm.

[01:02:07] CR: uh, yeah, but Zardoz not his best work.

[01:02:11] TK: I remem­ber read­ing an inter­view with Con­nery at one stage where, um, he was going through all the movies he turned down because he could­n’t under­stand them, includ­ing Star Wars. He was, like, up for Han Solo and Raiders of the Lost Ark and all this. And, um, He, uh, after they’d sort of all gone through and there was a bit of a sci­ence fic­tion boom, he thought, oh, I bet­ter accept one.

[01:02:31] TK: He got, he took Zardoz. He just, yeah, he just said, see I know noth­ing about sci­ence

[01:02:36] TK: fic­tion. I’m not going to do anoth­er one. But he did, he did, um, he did Out­land after that. High­lander, yeah, but he did Out­land after that, which was­n’t very good either. ha ha

[01:02:45] TK: ha ha

[01:02:46] CR: High­lander in, you know, I’ve watched it in recent years. It’s ter­ri­ble. But, um, in the, in its day, I thought it was hilar­i­ous.

[01:02:56] TK: Very styl­ish,

[01:02:57] TK: yeah.

[01:02:59] CR: Um, who’s the guy, um, who plays the bad guy in it? Um, lis­ten up. I got some­thing to say.

[01:03:10] CR: It’s bet­ter to die out than to fade away.

[01:03:13] TK: Oh, yeah, right. Yeah. And Christo­pher Lam­bert starred in it and he bare­ly spoke Eng­lish.

[01:03:21] CR: Yeah. Um, I got­ta, I got­ta look up that guy’s name now. Cause he does a voice, Fox is on a, um, Sponge­Bob, uh, deep dive. He’s

[01:03:32] CR: like deter­mined to watch every bloody Sponge­Bob episode. There’s like a mil­lion of them. Clan­cy Brown is the actor and Clan­cy Brown does a voice. Uh, one of the, one of the main voic­es in Sponge­Bob.

[01:03:44] CR: And it always makes me hap­py to hear, uh, Clan­cy Brown, Mr. Krabs, he does the voice

[01:03:50] CR: of, cause he’s,

[01:03:52] TK: right,

[01:03:52] TK: okay.

[01:03:52] CR: he’s got an

[01:03:53] CR: icon­ic, an icon­ic voice. And he’s been in so many great films like Star­ship Troop­ers and Bucka­roo Bon­sai and the last, uh, John Wick. And, you know, been around for­ev­er, done mil­lions of things. He’s one of those guys who’s always like one of those guys who’s always good.

[01:04:13] CR: Even if the. Even if the thing he’s in is ter­ri­ble,

[01:04:17] CR: he’s,

[01:04:18] TK: Yeah.

[01:04:18] CR: he’s got a thing about him.

[01:04:21] TK: And Con­nery played Alexan­der the Great in, um, Time Ban­dits 2 around that time, which was

[01:04:27] CR: god, I haven’t seen that

[01:04:28] TK: The orig­i­nal Time Ban­dits. Mm.

[01:04:32] CR: Um, speak­ing of films, I sort of think today, uh, when Fight Club was orig­i­nal­ly shown at the Cannes Film Fes­ti­val or some­where like that, it was, the audi­ence booed and peo­ple walked out. Peo­ple hat­ed it. Appar­ent­ly. Accord­ing to Ed Nor­ton and Brad Pitt, they went to the screen­ing and they were high, um, when they went and, uh, they loved it.

[01:05:03] CR: And, uh, peo­ple were boo­ing. Every­one hat­ed it. Edward Nor­ton says Brad Pitt turned to him at the end and said, this is the best film I’m ever going to be in. And Nor­ton said, I agree. And they hugged each oth­er. They thought it was fan­tas­tic, but every­one hat­ed it.

[01:05:18] CR: I don’t get that. I don’t know. I remem­ber

[01:05:20] CR: see­ing it

[01:05:20] CR: in

[01:05:20] TK: I don’t get it

[01:05:21] CR: came out. I loved it. I thought it was

[01:05:23] TK: Me too. Yeah. And did­n’t it real­ly just take off when DVDs became a thing too, with one of the biggest DVD sell­ers?

[01:05:31] CR: I don’t know, it must’ve, um Yeah, appar­ent­ly it was a finan­cial flop at the box office, every­one hat­ed it, crit­ics hat­ed it. I don’t

[01:05:39] CR: get it.

[01:05:40] TK: I loved

[01:05:40] TK: it. I loved

[01:05:41] TK: it.

[01:05:42] CR: Sound­track was

[01:05:43] CR: great, the Dust Broth­ers sound­track, and the whole

[01:05:46] CR: thing, it

[01:05:46] TK: did­n’t have good word of mouth because no one talked about Fight Club. Rule, rule one.

[01:05:51] CR: There you go. That was prob­a­bly it. Um, the one thing is, I, I mean, I read the book, um, that it was based on too. And, you know, of course the film sort of kind of glo­ri­fies Fight Club, I guess. It’s one of those

[01:06:09] CR: films, it’s a bit like, uh, Wall Street, you know, um,

[01:06:15] CR: it was

[01:06:15] TK: Gecko is meant to be a satire. Yeah.

[01:06:18] CR: Well, you know, Oliv­er Stone will say, you know, Wall Street was an anti Wall Street film, but it’s, and I was one of the guys who, in my late teens, saw it and went, hell yeah, I want to be Gor­don Gekko, that looks awe­some. A whole gen­er­a­tion of douchebags went and worked for Wall Street because they were moti­vat­ed by it.

[01:06:40] TK: And had slicked back their hair and

[01:06:42] TK: wore

[01:06:43] CR: yeah,

[01:06:44] TK: Yeah.

[01:06:44] CR: slick back my hair. I don’t wear the braces any­more since you made fun of me the last time you saw me wear braces, but

[01:06:49] CR: uh,

[01:06:50] TK: Did I? Well, I make fun of you every time I see you, but I can’t remem­ber you wear­ing

[01:06:53] TK: braces.

[01:06:53] CR: Yeah, yeah, you tell me doing kung fu’s bad for me, bike, rid­ing a bike is bad for me, you know.

[01:07:00] TK: Don’t say Kung Fu’s bad for you. I think, I think you’re going to be in hos­pi­tal, you’ll end up in hos­pi­tal rid­ing a bike. I can,

[01:07:07] TK: I can, that’s, that’s my pre­dic­tion.

[01:07:10] CR: that’s your

[01:07:10] TK: I will go on the record with that one. Yeah.

[01:07:14] CR: Wow,

[01:07:16] CR: you know,

[01:07:16] TK: it’s, it’s, it’s a cun­ning plan by your Kung Fu phys­io­ther­a­pist to get you back

[01:07:20] TK: in for

[01:07:21] TK: more work.

[01:07:22] CR: put more work.

[01:07:23] CR: Yeah,

[01:07:23] TK: Yeah.

[01:07:24] CR: I, um, look I would rather end up in hos­pi­tal because I exer­cised too hard than to end up in hos­pi­tal because, uh, my heart stopped because I did­n’t exer­cise enough or some­thing.

[01:07:41] TK: Is, is your, are heart attacks linked to too much or too lit­tle exer­cise?

[01:07:48] CR: Well, it’s linked to being over­weight,

[01:07:52] TK: Ok.

[01:07:53] TK: Are you over­weight?

[01:07:55] CR: I was! I mean, all of this start­ed, like, the whole, you know, I’m sure you, I told you at the time, but when I saw my

[01:08:02] TK: Hmm.

[01:08:03] CR: four or five years ago, and he said, Ooh! Cho­les­terol lev­els are up. Steven Mabb sent me, that was Steven Mab­b’s fault or not fault. But Steven Mabb told me when I turned 50 to go get a full health check­up.

[01:08:20] CR: And I did. And my GP said, your cho­les­terol is way too high and, uh, you’re in bad shape. You need to lose a bunch of weight and you need to go on statins and blood thin­ners. And he sent me to a car­di­ol­o­gist and the car­di­ol­o­gist ran all the tests and said, it’s not as bad as he makes out, but, uh, yeah, it is, it is a bit high for where you should be at your age.

[01:08:43] CR: And, um,

[01:08:44] CR: but that

[01:08:45] TK: Did he pull it? Did he pull a chart down and say, pod­cast­er, pod­cast­er pro­file? Seden­tary lifestyle.

[01:08:51] TK: Yeah.

[01:08:52] CR: but that’s, you know, and it was a result of that, that I start­ed tak­ing my health more seri­ous­ly. And I start­ed off by going for a run with Tay­lor in the morn­ings and then that turned into Kung Fu and, you know.

[01:09:04] TK: Fan­tas­tic.

[01:09:05] CR: All that kind of stuff.

[01:09:06] CR: Yeah.

[01:09:07] TK: No, I’m not going to begrudge any­one from doing exer­cise. I just know, from all the peo­ple I know who ride a lot, that you will have a bad acci­dent. And it may not be going fast, it may not be your fault, but you’ll

[01:09:19] TK: have an acci­dent.

[01:09:21] CR: I was speak­ing to Jen­ny after our show last week. She said her health’s improv­ing, which is great to hear. How’s yours doing?

[01:09:29] TK: Me, I’m as healthy as. I’m

[01:09:31] CR: Yeah. You’re

[01:09:32] TK: Yeah. Real­ly good. Yeah.

[01:09:36] CR: The back, not giv­ing any prob­lems,

[01:09:38] CR: all that kind

[01:09:39] TK: It does, but my phys­ios had me on a gym rou­tine for a to strength­en the core and help all those areas and that’s been real­ly good. I went to the gym before I came here

[01:09:51] TK: to record.

[01:09:52] CR: Where do you go to

[01:09:53] TK: There’s a big, um,

[01:09:54] CR: Cape Shea?

[01:09:55] TK: yeah, there’s a big, uh, one that’s been opened up by the local coun­cil in Rose­bud, which is about 15

[01:10:01] TK: min­utes

[01:10:01] TK: away,

[01:10:02] CR: Oh, okay. I thought you’d go to the

[01:10:04] CR: RACQ, um, up the road where we

[01:10:06] CR: had

[01:10:06] TK: I tried, they would­n’t let me use it unless I was stay­ing there, which I thought, because the thing sits emp­ty the whole time, but they

[01:10:13] TK: would­n’t, you know, take some mon­ey off me to let me use it. So any­way, uh, and up until recent­ly, I’ve just been, I take resis­tance bands with me when­ev­er I trav­el, um, but, and they’re good, bet­ter than noth­ing, but not as good as going into a gym and

[01:10:31] TK: pump­ing some iron, so,

[01:10:33] TK: yeah,

[01:10:34] CR: resis­tance bands late­ly again too, just for work­ing out at night, um, you know, if the TV’s on, I’ll sit there and do some work­ing out rather than just sit­ting there and being, I often stretch, but um, you know, I’ve sort of alter­nat­ing the stretch­ing with some resis­tance band work­outs, it’s good, they’re handy.

[01:10:54] TK: Yeah, so I did stretch­ing for years, prob­a­bly 10 years, and it’s good, but I think what the phys­io’s got me doing now is bet­ter. And there are a cou­ple of stretch­es in that. Um, but it’s more around strength­en­ing your core mus­cle rather than just, you know, try­ing to loosen a ham­string or

[01:11:10] TK: some­thing.

[01:11:11] CR: Yeah. Well, you know, we do high inten­si­ty fit­ness class­es at Kung Fu twice a week. Wednes­day nights and Sat­ur­day morn­ings. Yeah. Lot of core stuff in that. My core, Chris, he always laughs because when we start­ed Kung Fu and peo­ple would say you got­ta, you got­ta, Um, tight­en your core. You got to use your core.

[01:11:29] CR: And I’d say, what’s that? I don’t have one. I don’t know what that was. I did­n’t even know what they were talk­ing about a few years ago. Now my, my core is insane. I like, we do sit ups and I’ll have my hand on my stom­ach or my side if I’m doing obliques and I can feel my abs. I’m like, holy shit. I have abs.

[01:11:47] CR: That’s crazy.

[01:11:51] TK: Well, that’s good. Well, I’m not quite in that camp yet, but, um, uh, but no, I, I def­i­nite­ly ben­e­fit and it helps to change it up. So about a month ago, the physio orig­i­nal­ly gave me a split rou­tine. So I do half an hour a day. And that was, you know, we live in an apart­ment build­ing with a gym, so it was real­ly easy to go down­stairs for half an hour and do half today, half tomor­row.

[01:12:12] TK: And then he said, no, I think I want you to do an hour, do the same stuff, just do it all at once and then have a day off and go for a walk or some­thing. So I’ve changed and I real­ly feel it’s work­ing much bet­ter, just because it’s changed, but yeah, real­ly feel good.

[01:12:28] CR: Hmm. Well, that’s good. Got to sur­vive the next 10 years, TK. Next 10 years when it all hap­pens.

[01:12:37] TK: Oh, to the sin­gu­lar­i­ty? That’s fun­ny, my mind went straight to my net wealth after 10 years, you’ve gone to the

[01:12:42] TK: sin­gu­lar­i­ty.

[01:12:44] CR: well, yeah, yeah, get to live to enjoy your wealth, maybe, unless the AI takes over. There was a real­ly inter­est­ing, James Cameron did a real­ly inter­est­ing talk that I watched recent­ly. It was about 20 min­utes long, it was him talk­ing about AI. And, um, he starts off by say­ing, look, I’m not a arti­fi­cial intel­li­gence researcher.

[01:13:08] CR: I’m an, uh, I’m a film­mak­er. I’m not an expert. And this was a thing that he made for an AI con­fer­ence. Um, and you know, I’ve been for the last cou­ple of years since GPT first hit. The head­lines have been, you know, every­one talks about Skynet, obvi­ous­ly, con­stant­ly with the fears. I’m always like won­der­ing, like, where’s James Cameron right now?

[01:13:30] CR: He

[01:13:30] TK: Yeah,

[01:13:30] CR: all of

[01:13:30] CR: this fear mon­ger­ing, where the hell is

[01:13:32] CR: he?

[01:13:32] TK: Yeah, right.

[01:13:34] CR: And, um, but he gave a real­ly Insight­ful and intel­li­gent talk about the risks of AI. But he is fun­ny. He said it, the ear­ly part of it, you know, I know many of my col­leagues in Hol­ly­wood are against AI and they’re sign­ing all of these deals to ban AI.

[01:13:52] CR: He said, I’m all in on AI. I’m, I’m try­ing to fig­ure out how to use it in all of my film­mak­ing. You know, he said, I’ve always been on the cut­ting edge of tech­nol­o­gy and this

[01:14:03] CR: is not going to be any dif­fer­ent. I’m, I’m.

[01:14:05] CR: Going to fig­ure out how to use it. I’m not afraid of it. I’m not scared of it. But then he start­ed talk­ing about just its role in glob­al econ­o­my and in, you know, the US ver­sus Chi­na and the AI, um, stakes and lots of dif­fer­ent stuff.

[01:14:20] CR: So, uh, yeah, it was real­ly inter­est­ing. It was, um, quite a good chat from him. He’s, uh, he’s obvi­ous­ly a pret­ty smart cook­ie. Does his, does his research and does his stuff.

[01:14:32] TK: Yeah, right. But, I’m always, um, the thing that I admire James Cameron the most for, apart from obvi­ous­ly his film­mak­ing skills, is how he, how he wan­gled the mon­ey out of the stu­dios to fund his trips down to the Titan­ic as part of the film of the Titan­ic. Like, he could have eas­i­ly have made the movie with­out Rose as a Grand­ma, you know, going on the ship to send the sub­ma­rine down to look for the lock­et she was giv­en by DiCaprio when the Titan­ic sunk.

[01:15:05] TK: But Cameron just loved deep sea div­ing so he got the Hol­ly­wood Stu­dios to pay for it. It was prob­a­bly Fox actu­al­ly, I think it was Fox.

[01:15:14] CR: it was

[01:15:14] CR: Fox.

[01:15:14] CR: and I think they did okay. I think, I think,

[01:15:16] CR: they

[01:15:16] TK: Oh they did, okay. They did.

[01:15:19] TK: Uh,

[01:15:20] CR: That film did bonkers mon­ey for them. Um, well, what I admire him most for is get­ting Jamie Lee Cur­tis in her absolute prime to strip down to her under­wear and do a sexy dance for Schwarzeneg­ger in True Lies.

[01:15:34] CR: That, that is a cin­e­mat­ic

[01:15:38] TK: Good direct­ing.

[01:15:39] CR: there. Yeah.

[01:15:40] TK: Yeah, it was,

[01:15:40] TK: was­n’t it?

[01:15:41] CR: He cap­tured that for­ev­er, which, um,

[01:15:45] CR: I will

[01:15:46] TK: I remem­ber too, when Titan­ic was com­ing out, Rupert Mur­doch at the News Corp AGM in the States was fac­ing hos­tile crit­i­cism because the bud­get was get­ting up towards a bil­lion dol­lars for what­ev­er it was, hun­dreds of mil­lions of dol­lars for Titan­ic. And he got James Cameron to put togeth­er the scene where the Titan­ic sinks and it splits in half and the bow.

[01:16:10] TK: The stern goes up in the air and then sinks into the sea. And they showed like three min­utes or four min­utes of it at the News Corp AGM. All the ques­tions were answered. Every­one went silent. No more ques­tions about the bud­get of Titan­ic, which I thought

[01:16:24] TK: was real­ly cool. Okay,

[01:16:28] CR: um, Wikipedia, the bud­get was only 200 mil­lion.

[01:16:35] TK: I’ll defer, but I thought it was like at least 400.

[01:16:38] CR: 200 mil­lion. And, um, it was the most expen­sive film ever made at the time with a pro­duc­tion bud­get of 200 mil­lion. And as of today, it’s done. 2. 264 bil­lion dol­lars. So I think they could

[01:16:56] CR: afford to build him a sub­ma­rine.

[01:16:57] CR: Yeah. Yeah.

[01:17:02] CR: not a great film, to be hon­est. I did­n’t like the film.

[01:17:07] TK: none. That was a good spec­ta­cle, but I did­n’t like the film either.

[01:17:11] CR: Yes. I mean, it was well made, but, um, not a great film. And, um, Bill Pax­ton was in it though. RIP Bill Pax­ton. Um, I remem­ber like when I met Chris­sy and the first night we were start­ed talk­ing about films and my big fear was when I asked her what her favourite film was she was going to say the Titan­ic

[01:17:32] CR: and that would have

[01:17:32] TK: Oh, real­ly?

[01:17:33] CR: to talk to her again. For­tu­nate­ly she said The

[01:17:37] CR: God­fa­ther so you

[01:17:39] TK: won­der how many peo­ple

[01:17:40] TK: caught their favourite

[01:17:40] TK: film.

[01:17:41] CR: Yeah, I don’t know.

[01:17:44] CR: Um, Tay­lor, uh, speak­ing of films, Tay­lor had a good sto­ry. So Tay­lor and Hunter were in Syd­ney for a few days last week. Um, one of Tay­lor’s guys that he man­ages had a sit down with the star of the new Glad­i­a­tor film, or two of the stars from the new Glad­i­a­tor film, not Pedro Pas­cal, but the oth­er guy who’s like the main star of the film.

[01:18:07] CR: They went to the pre­miere and then they,

[01:18:09] TK: Okay.

[01:18:10] CR: thing and it was, Um, it was inter­est­ing. He told me that, um, that his, his guy that he man­ages, that was sit­ting down with him as a food Tik­Tok­er. So

[01:18:22] CR: he, when­ev­er they do celebri­ties, like they did some­thing with, um, Chris Hemsworth recent­ly, and he did some­thing with Katy Per­ry the week before.

[01:18:30] CR: They, it’s food relat­ed. So often he’ll try and get them to meet him at a cafe or a restau­rant and they’ll eat some­thing and talk about the food real­ly, rather than talk about. The movie or the album or what­ev­er it is. Um, but because this guy’s sort of a big star, uh, Tay­lor had orga­nized a restau­rant. The star of the film’s Irish.

[01:18:52] CR: So this guy, his Tik­Tok guy found a restau­rant in Syd­ney, that’s Irish. I think Tay­lor said Irish Mex­i­can cui­sine or some­thing, some weird blend. And he said it’s a lit­tle place like a hole in the wall. And so Tay­lor spoke to them and orga­nized. They weren’t going to be open on this day that they had to do it, but Tay­lor con­vinced them to open up, but he could­n’t tell them who was com­ing.

[01:19:17] CR: Because there was secu­ri­ty con­cerns. He was­n’t allowed to tell them about the actor, but they opened up just because Tay­lor’s guy was com­ing, because Tay­lor’s guy’s got mil­lions of mil­lions of fol­low­ers on Tik­Tok and he pro­motes food and restau­rants, so they opened up for him. Tay­lor got there about an hour before it was sched­uled to hap­pen and told them that this star of the Glad­i­a­tor film was also going to be there, plus anoth­er guy from it, and they were all in a pan­ic.

[01:19:43] CR: Any­way, so there was all this secu­ri­ty, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And the guys rock up to do the thing and then about 40 paparazzi arrive a cou­ple of min­utes lat­er and they’re all out­side the room sort of clam­our­ing and mak­ing noise and try­ing to get pho­tos and So this guy, uh, the stu­dio had sent some secu­ri­ty with him who went out and pushed the paparazzi.

[01:20:10] CR: Tay­lor’s like, can you get them away? Because they’re cre­at­ing too much noise and they pushed them away from the doors and cre­at­ed, um, some space. And then at the end, after they fin­ished film­ing their thing, um, Tay­lor’s guy, Tom, want­ed to just get, uh, a bit of an intro from them out­side the restau­rant. So it’s like, hey, do you want to go get some­thing to eat?

[01:20:30] CR: Yeah. And then they cut that in at the end. The guys were like, yeah, but we don’t want to be out there. Cause they were, he said, like quite scared about the paparazzi, um, you know, doing some­thing stu­pid. Um, and so he got like 20 sec­onds with them out and they, they’re sur­round­ed by paparazzi. Tay­lor showed me, you know, some of the pho­tos and the video that he took of it.

[01:20:49] CR: There’s a ring of paparazzi around him. Any­way, an hour or two lat­er, the Dai­ly Mail run a sto­ry. And the, the way that they tell the sto­ry was the two stars of the Glad­i­a­tor film, after fin­ish­ing their press jun­ket for the day. Man­age to sneak off togeth­er and grab a bite to eat. And as they were leav­ing, some fans spot­ted them and cap­tured these shots, and then they had shots

[01:21:17] CR: of them,

[01:21:18] CR: either they’d man­aged to shoot around the paparazzi or just edit­ed all the paparazzi out, because there’s no one in the shots.

[01:21:27] CR: And Tay­lor was like, holy shit, like, I knew the media was full of shit, but to have actu­al­ly seen that, Myself, like the way that they spun that sto­ry, and like a noth­ing sto­ry, he said if they’re just lying and mak­ing up bull­shit for some­thing that small, imag­ine the lies that they’re telling with the rest of the stuff that actu­al­ly is impor­tant in the media.

[01:21:51] CR: And then we were hav­ing this con­ver­sa­tion over break­fast on Sun­day about, well who tipped off the paparazzi in the first place? Was it the man­age­ment? Of the guy, because this guy is the star of the film. He’s not a known name. Like I’d nev­er heard of him before. And so we were talk­ing about, well, how do you make some­one famous?

[01:22:11] CR: Well, you tip off the paparazzi or you hire crowds. We were talk­ing about the whole phe­nom­e­non of hir­ing crowds. I remem­ber when Bowie first went to the U S in the ear­ly sev­en­ties. He could­n’t get arrest­ed, so his man­age­ment team, like, hired crowds of peo­ple to stand out the front and form lines at the front of his con­certs.

[01:22:32] CR: Trump, you know, in his cam­paigns is often bussing in peo­ple into his things to attend his events. Have I told you about the, the, um, Alice Coop­er in Lon­don sto­ry? Shep Gor­don? What he did when Alice first went to Lon­don?

[01:22:48] TK: I

[01:22:48] TK: don’t think so,

[01:22:48] CR: bus sto­ry.

[01:22:50] CR: I, I’ve told, I told Tay­lor, there was this great, I read this, um, I read Shep Gor­don’s, um, mem­oirs and I watched a doc­u­men­tary on him a cou­ple of years ago, which was fan­tas­tic.

[01:22:59] CR: He’s been Alice’s man­ag­er since the 60s, right? This, uh, Jew­ish guy who’s just a leg­end, but, um, he, uh, he, uh, Alice went to Lon­don, again, ear­ly 70s, could­n’t get arrest­ed, tick­et sales for his con­certs were, weren’t sell­ing. So Shep hired a bus, got a big poster of Alice naked with a boa con­stric­tor wrapped around him on the side of the

[01:23:31] CR: bus, and then paid the bus dri­ver to stop the bus in peak hour traf­fic in the mid­dle of Lon­don and cause a traf­fic jam.

[01:23:41] CR: And he said, I’ll pay your fines. I’ll, you know, I’ll, I’ll pay for the lawyer. I’ll pay for

[01:23:45] CR: every­thing. And so it got all of this. Main­stream media cov­er­age that there was a traf­fic jam down­town Lon­don and all of the footage and the cov­er­age had this big bus with Alice on the side of it. So we were just talk­ing about, you know, how you, how you Cre­ate media cov­er­age for your clients and turn them into celebri­ties.

[01:24:09] CR: Tay­lor’s try­ing to fig­ure out a mod­el for the peo­ple he man­ages. Um, how does he take them and turn them into celebri­ties in their domain? And, but any­way, it was an inter­est­ing sto­ry about the, the Glad­i­a­tor guy.

[01:24:23] TK: I know the, I know the pic­ture you’re talk­ing about on the bus. I’ve seen the pic­ture. And. Like, it’s famous in, you know,

[01:24:30] TK: rock books,

[01:24:32] CR: Yeah.

[01:24:32] TK: but I did­n’t know the sto­ry,

[01:24:33] TK: yeah, right.

[01:24:35] CR: Well, and the, the sto­ry about how Shep Gor­don end­ed up man­ag­ing Alice was fas­ci­nat­ing too. Shep was, you know, He was a weed deal­er, um, and he was stay­ing at this hotel in um, L. A. uh, no, no, I think it was in L. A. And um, he was stay­ing in this hotel one night and he heard um, a fight, what he thought was a fight going on down­stairs, and he, and he, Out­side where the pool was in this hotel, and he went down and he saw a black guy and a white guy, uh, sor­ry, a black guy and a white girl fight­ing on the side of the pool.

[01:25:12] CR: He went down to break them up to save the white girl, and the white girl turned around and punched him in the mouth and told him to F off. The black guy was Jimi Hen­drix

[01:25:23] TK: Nah,

[01:25:24] CR: the white woman was, um, Jan­ice Joplin. They were mak­ing out

[01:25:30] CR: on the thing. So any­way, and Jim Mor­ri­son was stay­ing at this hotel and he becomes friends with all of them.

[01:25:37] CR: And after, uh, they got to know each oth­er after a cou­ple of weeks. Um, Jim, uh, Jimi Hen­drix basi­cal­ly said to him, You’re a Jew, aren’t you? He goes, Yeah, I guess you should be a man­ag­er. Uh, music man­ag­er goes, real­ly? He goes, and then Zap­pa was there and he said to Zap­pa, have you still got that bunch of weirdos, uh, rehears­ing in your base­ment?

[01:25:58] CR: And Zap­pa was like, yeah. And they were like, you should go, you should go and man­age that group of weirdos. So Shep turns up to Zappa’s house, knocks on the door and Alice and the band are there and he goes, you guys need a man­ag­er? Jimi Hen­drix told me you guys need a man­ag­er. They’re like, yeah, yeah, come in.

[01:26:14] CR: So he became their man­ag­er. And, uh, still man­ages Alice to this, to this day. So it’s Great

[01:26:21] CR: Great sto­ry. And he, and he says in, in his, uh, this doc­u­men­tary I saw that he and Alice just had this agree­ment from the get go that the char­ac­ter brand is the most impor­tant thing. We nev­er do any­thing to dam­age the brand of Alice. We always treat peo­ple well, and, uh, There was a third thing that I can’t remem­ber, but he said that they, they, they agreed on these three things day one. And they’ve main­tained that ever since. And he, and part of the sto­ry told that when Sam­my Hagar and his band were com­ing up, might’ve been Mon­trose or when Sam­my was solo before his Van Halen days, they were doing a gig some­where, um, you know, mid­dle of the U S, um, small time kind of a thing.

[01:27:08] CR: And, uh, I think there was snow or there was sleet or some­thing and the gig got can­celled. And Sam­my and his band were the open­ing act. But they’d already, they’d already, um, Alice had already been paid in advance. But Sam­my and his band weren’t going to get paid because the gig got can­celled. And Shep said, he said to Alice, these guys have already trav­elled here.

[01:27:32] CR: They’ve spent their mon­ey and time to get here. They’ve We should look after them. We should cut them in, you know, make sure that they get looked after so they’re not out of pock­et. And he said, Alice was like, yeah, absolute­ly. You know, that we, we need to look after them. They’re, you know, strug­gling up and com­ing musi­cians.

[01:27:47] CR: And they did, he said, it was nev­er, I nev­er had to, I nev­er had to argue with Alice about those sorts of things. It was just this agree­ment that we had, that you look after peo­ple and you make sure that every­one is treat­ed well. And, um, and, uh, yeah. So it’s nice. He said, that’s what’s kept us going is in for 50, 60 years, what­ev­er it is, is

[01:28:08] CR: just

[01:28:09] TK: yeah,

[01:28:10] CR: respect, Do the right thing, treat peo­ple well, et cetera, et cetera.

[01:28:15] CR: So, yeah, he was the guy with Alice’s wife that got Alice clean and got them through rehab and all of that kind of stuff in the ear­ly eight­ies to late sev­en­ties, ear­ly eight­ies

[01:28:27] TK: Now he’s a big golf play­er,

[01:28:29] CR: and a big Chris­t­ian.

[01:28:30] CR: Yeah. Yeah.

[01:28:31] TK: Is he real­ly? I did­n’t

[01:28:32] TK: know that,

[01:28:34] CR: Oh yeah, yeah, so his father was a pas­tor or a min­is­ter and then Alice obvi­ous­ly in his hey­day in the 70s had noth­ing to do with it, but then when he got sober he became a big Chris­t­ian again and his wife’s a big Chris­t­ian and yeah, they, I’ve seen videos of them being inter­viewed on like Chris­t­ian chan­nels talk­ing about their mar­riage and they’re, they’re big evan­gel­i­cals, but um, you know, they don’t, You know, they don’t, they don’t make a big deal out of it out­side of those sorts of things.

[01:29:02] CR: But, um, a bit like him and Nick Cave. They’re like, real­ly?

[01:29:07] TK: Nick

[01:29:08] TK: Cavers too?

[01:29:10] CR: Oh yeah, Nick

[01:29:10] CR: Cave’s with Rus­sell Brand. Yeah, Nick Cave. We

[01:29:14] CR: talked about this

[01:29:15] TK: Oh, no, I did. We did.

[01:29:16] TK: Yeah, you’re right. Sor­ry,

[01:29:17] TK: I for­got.

[01:29:17] CR: giv­en a bunch of inter­views recent­ly where he’s sort of, would­n’t say he’s an evan­gel­i­cal, but he’s sort of a believ­er now. It’s hap­pened in, I don’t know if it hap­pened since he’s. Sons died, he’s lost two sons now, and if that’s had an impact on him, but always sur­pris­ing.

[01:29:34] CR: The bad boys of rock and roll hav­ing late in life

[01:29:38] CR: con­ver­sions, unlike Rus­sell Brand,

[01:29:44] CR: where I think Rus­sell Brand’s is pure­ly, you

[01:29:47] CR: know,

[01:29:48] TK: Image, image

[01:29:49] TK: buff­ing.

[01:29:49] CR: a PR con­ver­sion.

[01:29:53] CR: Who’s, who’s, who’s to say?

[01:29:55] TK: Yeah. Hey, speak­ing of restau­rants, we went to a good one last week. Alex rec­om­mend­ed it in Mel­bourne and it was our sec­ond vis­it to it. It’s called Reed House, R E E D, in town in Mel­bourne. I rec­om­mend

[01:30:10] TK: it.

[01:30:11] TK: It’s um, Yeah, peo­ple keep ask­ing that. I’m going to say mod­ern British, if that makes sense, but there were dish­es like scotch egg and ox tongue, um, but there was also tuna and chick­en and oth­er things.

[01:30:28] TK: So yeah, pret­ty var­ied, but love­ly. Real­ly, real­ly good. I like food­ie lev­el food.

[01:30:35] CR: Oh

[01:30:35] TK: A lot of atten­tion paid to it. Great taste. Yeah.

[01:30:39] CR: I saw an old Antho­ny Bour­dain episode a cou­ple of weeks ago where he was in Lon­don and he was with, um, uh, who’s the female, sexy female chef over there that was mar­ried to Geof­frey, what’s his face, the Aus­tralian lawyer dude, uh, for a while. She’s always stick­ing her fin­ger in whipped cream and

[01:31:01] CR: lick­ing it

[01:31:01] TK: Nigel­la

[01:31:02] TK: Law­son.

[01:31:02] CR: Yeah, Nigel­la Law­son.

[01:31:04] TK: Oh, she mar­ried to, okay, she was mar­ried to the guy, um, who ran Saatchi and

[01:31:09] TK: Saatchi, one of the Saatchis.

[01:31:11] CR: And she is or was mar­ried to,

[01:31:14] CR: um, who’s

[01:31:16] CR: Jef­frey Robert­son?

[01:31:17] CR: Yeah,

[01:31:18] TK: Yeah, okay.

[01:31:19] CR: I think. Yeah, still is. Um, I

[01:31:24] CR: think

[01:31:24] TK: I thought he was mar­ried to Cassie

[01:31:26] TK: Lett, the author.

[01:31:27] CR: They were? Yeah. He gets around.

[01:31:31] TK: Yeah,

[01:31:31] CR: they, I don’t know, they were, they were a cou­ple at some stage, whether or not they are now, or were in the past, I don’t know.

[01:31:37] TK: Yeah. Does he sidle up in a bar and pose a hypo­thet­i­cal? Is that how he, how

[01:31:41] TK: he,

[01:31:41] TK: gets to

[01:31:42] CR: ha ha

[01:31:42] CR: ha ha! that’s how he gets the girls, yeah.

[01:31:45] TK: yeah,

[01:31:46] TK: hypo­thet­i­cal­ly if I was to leave my wife, would you be inter­est­ed in me com­ing

[01:31:49] TK: across?

[01:31:51] CR: Spous­es, John Dia­mond? Um, she was mar­ried too. He died in 2001. Um, I think I read one of his books at some point.

[01:32:07] TK: John Dia­mond?

[01:32:09] CR: yeah, he

[01:32:11] TK: Is that the lawyer, the germs, guns,

[01:32:13] TK: germs and steel

[01:32:14] TK: guy?

[01:32:15] CR: no,

[01:32:15] TK: No, that’s Jared

[01:32:16] TK: Dia­mond.

[01:32:17] CR: Jared Dia­mond, yeah. He wrote a book with Richard Dawkins and Dominic Law­son, who is her broth­er, who is a chess grand­mas­ter. He was the British chess cham­pi­on in

[01:32:35] TK: wow.

[01:32:36] CR: late 80s, ear­ly 90s, and he played Gar­ry Kas­parov. in the World Cham­pi­onship and got crushed once. And, um, I read, I read his mem­oirs once too.

[01:32:48] CR: Um, just talk­ing about chess, real­ly, and talk­ing about play­ing Daria Kas­parov and how demor­al­iz­ing that was. Any­way, my sto­ry about her and Bour­dain was they were eat­ing a scotch egg and she

[01:33:00] TK: Ah,

[01:33:01] CR: they went to a

[01:33:02] CR: pub and she intro­duced him to scotch eggs. And I was say­ing to Chris­sy, I don’t think I’ve ever had one, but they looked like, they looked good.

[01:33:09] TK: Yeah, it’s love­ly. I did.

[01:33:13] TK: And they had,

[01:33:13] CR: fried, bat­tered or some­thing

[01:33:15] CR: and bread crumbs or

[01:33:16] CR: some­thing?

[01:33:16] TK: yes, bread­crumbs around it. Yeah. So that was love­ly and cooked to per­fec­tion. So it was run­ny in the mid­dle. And they had, um, like Welsh rab­bit. One of the entrees was Welsh rab­bit. And, uh, but it was like a crum­pet, um, with Worces­ter­shire sauce on it. It was love­ly.

[01:33:36] CR: right. I’m look­ing at uh, her thing and it says she’s not mar­ried to Geof­frey Robert­son or so I don’t know where I got that from. I don’t know. Okay, so don’t sue me Nigel­la or Geof­frey. Sure, they were a cou­ple at some point. Okay. Yeah, she was with Charles Saatchi, but then she divorced him.

[01:33:54] CR: So, okay. What else you got apart from

[01:33:56] CR: food­ie

[01:33:57] TK: No, I’m done. I was done half an hour ago.

[01:33:59] CR: Yeah, okay, then.

[01:34:02] TK: Yeah.

[01:34:02] CR: like that. Oh, Geof­frey Robert­son was dat­ing Nigel­la Law­son

[01:34:06] TK: Oh,

[01:34:06] TK: there you go. Okay.

[01:34:08] CR: he met Kathy Lett. There you go.

[01:34:11] TK: Ah, right. Okay. So is he still mar­ried

[01:34:13] TK: to Cathy Lett, is he?

[01:34:15] CR: Um, nope. They sep­a­rat­ed in 2017.

[01:34:21] TK: Wow. Must be hard to stay mar­ried if you’re a celebri­ty in the UK.

[01:34:29] CR: Well, I’ve been mar­ried three times, so I can tell you that it’s hard being a pod­cast­ing celebri­ty to stay

[01:34:34] CR: mar­ried too.

[01:34:34] TK: Ah, right. Yeah.

[01:34:36] TK: Okay.

[01:34:38] CR: right. Thank you, Tony. Enjoy. Enjoy the rest of your week. Good luck with the, with the hors­es this week, both with the cup tips and, um,

[01:34:48] TK: Yeah, thanks. And try and stay safe on your bike at 5am.

[01:34:56] CR: up the stats, there were, accord­ing to GPT, um, Cycling offers sub­stan­tial health ben­e­fits, includ­ing improved car­dio­vas­cu­lar fit­ness, enhanced mus­cle strength, and reduced stress lev­els. Reg­u­lar cycling can low­er or The risk of heart dis­ease, stroke, and type 2 dia­betes. It’s quot­ing Bet­ter Health Vic­to­ria there.

[01:35:19] CR: How­ev­er, cycling is not with­out risks. In Aus­tralia, dur­ing 2021 22, there were approx­i­mate­ly 14, 800 cycle relat­ed hos­pi­tal­iza­tions, with 7, 100 attrib­uted to cycling as a sport. The Aus­tralian Insti­tute of Health and Wel­fare report­ed that in 2020 21, there were 36 ped­al cyclist deaths, account­ing for 3 per­cent of trans­port relat­ed fatal­i­ties.

[01:35:48] CR: Despite these risks, stud­ies indi­cate that the health ben­e­fits of cycling sig­nif­i­cant­ly out­weigh the dan­gers.

[01:35:56] CR: And I said,

[01:35:57] CR: well, I said, 14, 800 hos­pi­tal­i­sa­tion sounds high, but out of how many bike rides and bike rid­ers in that peri­od?

[01:36:11] CR: said, accord­ing to the 2021 Nation­al Walk­ing and Cycling Par­tic­i­pa­tion Sur­vey, 44. 3 per­cent of Aus­tralians rode a bicy­cle at least once in the past year. With Aus­trali­a’s pop­u­la­tion esti­mat­ed around 25. 7 mil­lion in 2021, this equates to approx­i­mate­ly 11. 4 mil­lion indi­vid­u­als cycling annu­al­ly. The sur­vey also indi­cates that 18.

[01:36:36] CR: 2 per­cent of Aus­tralians cycled at least once a week, sug­gest­ing a sig­nif­i­cant num­ber of total rides through­out the year. So, 14, 800, prob­a­bly. Not high as a per­cent­age of bike rid­ers or bike rides,

[01:36:52] CR: but you know, we’ll

[01:36:55] CR: see.

[01:36:55] TK: How many, how many ride, was it three hours a day?

[01:37:01] CR: All right, lis­ten, uh, I’ll, I’ll take, I’ll take your advice on board and stay safe.

[01:37:10] TK: Okay, good. I’m just telling you,

[01:37:14] TK: it’s up to you.

[01:37:15] CR: of peo­ple who rode

[01:37:16] CR: bikes and had health issues.

[01:37:18] CR: Yeah.

[01:37:18] TK: Yeah, well, yeah, they were healthy. They were very healthy. Good health ben­e­fits until they spent time in

[01:37:24] TK: hos­pi­tal.

[01:37:26] CR: They might’ve died any­way, you know. Might’ve had deep vein throm­bo­sis or heart attacks any­way.

[01:37:33] TK: they might have. Well, good. And they would have tak­en it up a lot younger and when they’re a lot more coor­di­nat­ed too than

[01:37:45] TK: you.

[01:37:45] CR: do any­thing, I can’t do any­thing about that, Tony.

[01:37:48] TK: You can’t.

[01:37:51] TK: Just take it

[01:37:51] TK: easy.

[01:37:52] CR: Well, if I sur­vive next week. I’ll talk to you next week.

[01:37:56] TK: No, you can take, you can, you can take your head­phones into the hos­pi­tal with you.

[01:37:59] TK: Yeah,

[01:38:02] CR: Uh, well, I’m in trac­tion. I’ll record it in trac­tion. Yeah. No rest, no rest for the wicked. All right.

[01:38:09] TK: they’re out. Thanks. Bye.