OIL THAT: QAV AU #925

QAV AU 925 CLUB AUDIO

[00:00:00]

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay

Cameron: Q- what? Mate, shh. Wel­come to QAV, Tony.

Tony Kynas­ton: Sor­ry.

Cameron: uh,

Tony Kynas­ton: I was­n’t even look­ing at the screen and I was try­ing to open my notes. Yeah

Cameron: uh, two, uh, 925.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yes

Cameron: is

Tony Kynas­ton: You have so many ex-wives you can’t remem­ber their birth­days.

Cameron: Yeah, it’s just dates. You know, you go, “Oh, I think there was a date I was sup­posed to

Tony Kynas­ton: You and Elon

Cameron: wife’s.” Yeah. Actu­al­ly, yeah. Yeah. Speak­ing of Elon,

Tony Kynas­ton: How can afford his alimo­ny?

Cameron: how, how are your, uh, are your SpaceX shares going, Tony?

Tony Kynas­ton: I don’t have any, but um, I hear they’ve been doing well until all the insid­ers sell out, but we’ll see

Cameron: No, they’re down. They crashed.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, have they? Well, they were doing well last time I looked. They’re up 50% over the week­end

Cameron: Uh, they’re down. I don’t– I would­n’t say crashed, but, um, yeah, they’re back down to where they start­ed, I think. Um, as of today, they are less. They’re below. Um, they f- they sort of float­ed at a dol­lar six­ty– uh, $165, sor­ry. They’re cur­rent­ly [00:01:00] $154. So con­grat­u­la­tions to every­one who got into SpaceX.

Tony Kynas­ton: And got out quick­ly.

Cameron: you got out, yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. That’s amaz­ing. It– That’s, I mean, that’s a huge float to be mov­ing that, with that much volatil­i­ty, isn’t it? That’s incred­i­ble.

Cameron: Yeah. Well,

Tony Kynas­ton: All sorts of rumors in the mar­ket that he’s gonna use the float to buy Tes­la, and then he can, uh, become the chief exec or exec­u­tive chair­man of Tes­la as well, which could have bugged him he could­n’t be chair­man

Cameron: I’ve been read­ing these, this Colos­sus, uh, series of books from the ’60s and ’70s. I’m on the third one. It was a tril­o­gy. I’m on the third one at the moment called Colos­sus and the Crab, and this is where, uh, Mar­tians come down and basi­cal­ly help the humans to kill Colos­sus and then state that they want, uh, their pay­ment is they want 50% of Earth­’s oxy­gen to take back to Mars to re-replen­ish the oxy­gen on Mars.

Tony Kynas­ton: Right

Cameron: It’s, it’s, it’s, it’s actu­al­ly not as wacky as it sounds. It’s pret­ty good, but it got me read­ing a [00:02:00] lot of it ’cause the, the, the author. This one was writ­ten in 1977. He’s mak­ing a lot of cl- ooh, a lot of claims about Mars’ atmos­phere and the escape veloc­i­ty of Mars and why it lost all of its heav­ier ele­ments and all

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: of stuff.

And so I’ve been going back­wards and for­wards with Claude just sort of fact-check­ing a lot of this stuff. But as part of that process I was read­ing about the, uh, cos­mic radi­a­tion lev­els to get to Mars. Do you know, do you know much about that?

Tony Kynas­ton: I have heard that’s one of the prob­lems with colonies on Mars is you just get irra­di­at­ed, you get microwaved

Cameron: Even get­ting there. So, um, appar­ent­ly NASA has a career lim­it for astro­nauts of 600 mil­lisiev­erts of radi­a­tion expo­sure. Over your entire career as an astro­naut, you can get six– any­thing beyond 600, and I think your, uh, rates of get­ting can­cer from radi­a­tion poi­son­ing go up to, like, 5% or 10% high­er than they nor­mal­ly would be, so they cap it at

Tony Kynas­ton: Right

Yep

Cameron: A [00:03:00] one-way trip to Mars expos­es you to 1,000 mil­lisiev­erts. Um-

Tony Kynas­ton: And I can’t line the ship

Cameron: No. There, there’s, there’s var­i­ous the­o­ries, but n- noth­ing that would be, uh, um, effec­tive. Um, in fact, if you line it with met­al, it, it makes it worse because the radi­a­tion hits the met­al and then frag­ments all of the par­ti­cles out of the met­al, so y- it actu­al­ly increas­es your expo­sure of radi­a­tion.

Tony Kynas­ton: Right

Cameron: way to do it appar­ent­ly is water, um, y- you’d, it’d be so heavy, et cetera, et cetera. It ruins your abil­i­ty to get the ship up. Maybe if you, if you got

Tony Kynas­ton: Close out the posi­tion, yeah

Cameron: and got in anoth­er ship, you might be able to. Appar­ent­ly, I asked if Elon

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, well, you got­ta get the water up there, though. You can’t. Does­n’t mat­ter. You got­ta still get the water up there, right?

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: It does­n’t flow uphill.

Cameron: Elon’s answer to this appar­ent­ly so far has been, “Yeah, yeah, a lot of peo­ple are gonna die.

That’s just how it is.” Uh,

Tony Kynas­ton: [00:04:00] Is he stroking a cat when he says that?

Cameron: you know, his, uh, thing about l- you know, the, the rock­et launch­es with SpaceX over the years has always been, you know, blow stuff up quick­ly.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: appar­ent­ly that trans­lates into kill peo­ple quick­ly to get them

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: He said it’s gonna be vol­un­teer only. Appar­ent­ly, his answer is to get you, get you there faster. So if you get there faster, you’re exposed to less radi­a­tion. But of

Tony Kynas­ton: But you’re still exposed when you get there, yeah

Cameron: you get there, let– and then if you ever wan­na

Tony Kynas­ton: Unless you,

Cameron: so

Tony Kynas­ton: unless you build under­ground, I guess. That was the,

Cameron: Well,

Tony Kynas­ton: was the the­o­ry

Cameron: Yeah, you have to build under­ground, Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Well, I thought Elon’s play was to get robots to do all that when it was safe to send humans, yeah

Cameron: Yeah. Even­tu­al­ly you, you, it’s safe for humans to get in there. But, um,

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: Well, before we get onto Elon, um, Iran, let’s

Tony Kynas­ton: We just did. Before we get onto Wieland, we just spent the last five min­utes on it.

Cameron: okay. Let’s move off of Elon.

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay

Cameron: Elon. That’s what all of his ex-wives said. Um, [00:05:00] the Iran sanc­tions. So, um-

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, it’s clown show num­ber two. Clown show num­ber one,

Cameron: So the

Tony Kynas­ton: in space. Clown show num­ber two.

Cameron: the MOU was final­ly released late last week, and it was the most fun I’ve had in, I don’t know, a long time read­ing through that. The 300 bil­lion in repa­ra­tions had been rumored for a while, and when­ev­er I spoke to my Per­sian friend, uh, from Kung Fu about it and, or read about it in the forums online, the, the, the, the stan­dard response was, “Oh, that’s just IRGC pro­pa­gan­da.

They’re just try­ing to make them­selves sound good. That’s nev­er gonna hap­pen.” Well, it was in the doc­u­ment. Yeah, $300

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: in

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. But who pays for it?

Cameron: And they’re, they’re not very spe­cif­ic on that.

Tony Kynas­ton: No.

Cameron: said, ” No, we’re not pay­ing for it. Uh, the

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: will pay for it.” And they might. Um, but it’s a big. And then the [00:06:00] lift­ing of all sanc­tions on Iran is the oth­er big thing.

So then, uh, Iran pulled out because Israel kept bomb­ing Lebanon. They walked out of the nego­ti­a­tions, or they said they were gonna, but appar­ent­ly they did­n’t, and I was read­ing in Al Jazeera this morn­ing. It’s still the place where I go to for my news on this is Al Jazeera. It seems to be, you know, a lit­tle bit less, um, prob­lem­at­ic than a lot of the West­ern news sources.

But, um, they were say­ing that, uh, the US has par­tial­ly lift­ed Iran’s oil sanc­tions for 60 days or 61 days maybe.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, so it’s basi­cal­ly a 60-day cease­fire, which we’ve had before as well, which did­n’t last very long

Cameron: But it says, uh, “The US Trea­sury issued a 60-day sanc­tions waiv­er on Mon­day, paving the way for the pro­duc­tion, deliv­ery, and sale of Iran­ian oil to the US.” So, A, I don’t know how much oil they have [00:07:00] sit­ting around now to sell to the US with­in 60 days. I don’t know what the sit­u­a­tion is there, but. And it’s just like what it does to the oil price, who knows?

But it’s just, uh, you know, fas­ci­nat­ing that after decades of sanc­tions on Iran

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: how bad the JCPOA deal was accord­ing to Trump, they’re lift­ing sanc­tions on Iran and

Tony Kynas­ton: I saw a,

Cameron: bil­lion.

Tony Kynas­ton: I saw a car­toon of Trump copy­ing Oba­ma’s S on, on Iran. It’s like he’s just done the same thing Oba­ma did

Cameron: No, this is way more, uh, bet­ter. Way more bet­ter? I

Tony Kynas­ton: It’s worse for the US, yeah

Cameron: Way bet­ter for Iran is– and for the IRGC than any­thing Oba­ma tried to put through. I mean, if Oba­ma had if Oba­ma had tried to put up this deal, it would’ve been, you know, he would’ve been laughed out of the White House. Uh, any­way,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep

Cameron: it’s, [00:08:00] uh, as we always say, you got no idea what’s gonna hap­pen any day, day to day.

Uh, oil price is back down today. It went up a bit over the week­end. It seems to be back down. I think it’s around sev­en­ty-sev­en bucks last I heard.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: So has­n’t gone back up where we’re buy­ing oil stocks again yet, but who knows what will hap­pen. It’s all very fraught and hard to believe any­thing that gets said by any of the par­ties, uh, at this junc­ture

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, exact­ly. And, and whether, um, even Israel will be a par­ty to what needs to hap­pen. They seem to be just doing what they want as well.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: And then if you lift the sanc­tions on Iran, they’re gonna keep fund­ing Hezbol­lah, which is gonna goad Israel. So it’s not– Maybe it’s a six­ty-day cir­cuit break­er, but that’s the, the best way you can pic­ture it, I think

Cameron: I was lis­ten­ing to, uh, do you know, um, Switzer­land? Um, Sw-

Tony Kynas­ton: just mis­pro­nounc­ing [00:09:00] Switzer­land.

Cameron: Nah, um, Son

Tony Kynas­ton: recent­ly on cap­ping their pop­u­la­tion at 10 mil­lion?

Cameron: There’s an Aus­tralian jour­nal­ist, uh, Peter Schweiz­er,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: he was the jour­nal­ist, uh, his

Tony Kynas­ton: I’ve heard of him, yeah. Mm-hmm

Cameron: I don’t know. He does a, he does a good, uh, pod­cast that I check out a bit ’cause he has John Mearsheimer on a lot and guys like that. on, on a week­ly basis, he has Mearsheimer and guys like that come on and talk about what’s going on in Iran most­ly. you know, Schwei- uh, uh, John Mearsheimer is one of the guys that I’ve turned to for decades. I read his book on the Iran. uh, the Israel Lob­by, sor­ry, that he did with Stephen Walt 20 years ago. been one of my go-to guys on inter­na­tion­al geopol­i­tics for decades. I mean, he’s, he’s been talk­ing just this week about how the Gulf, uh, states, um, now have a dif­fer­ent view about the Unit­ed States defense umbrel­la and how it’s [00:10:00] non-exis­tent real­ly.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: um, the- their whole rela­tion­ship with Israel and their rela­tion­ship

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: has to change now because they can’t afford for the strait to be closed on a reg­u­lar basis. So it’s real­ly reshap­ing, it seems, the diplo­mat­ic rela­tion­ships between all of these coun­tries in the Gulf and, um, is becom­ing a glob­al pari­ah.

The

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: a glob­al pari­ah, it’s, it’s. and Chi­na’s just sit­ting there lick­ing its lips. So it’s like hilar­i­ous real­ly to watch the whole thing crum­ble. Not hilar­i­ous, that’s the wrong word, but it’s fas­ci­nat­ing

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, it is fas­ci­nat­ing. I s- I think it was the Lowy Insti­tute who came out in today’s paper say­ing that more peo­ple in Aus­tralia now, based on their recent sur­veys, um, pre­fer Chi­na to the US as a, as a ally. Thought it was inter­est­ing.

Cameron: Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: I think it’s also fun to spec­u­late what could hap­pen in the Mid­dle East.

I mean, you’d have to say that of late any­way, Sau­di Ara­bia has a bet­ter rela­tion­ship with [00:11:00] the US than Israel does, and if all the US real­ly wants is a, is an ally in the, in the region, so, you know, Israel might be on shaky ground going for­ward

Cameron: Yeah, well, they’ve had a good rela­tion­ship with the Saud­is since, you know, um, what’s his face did the deal dur­ing the OPEC cri­sis. Um, who was the, uh, Nazi who worked for Nixon died a cou­ple of years ago? Kissinger. When Kissinger did the open check­book deal with the Saud­is.

Tony Kynas­ton: Right

Cameron: down, and we’ll just back any­thing that you want, and, you

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: have basi­cal­ly open slather.” Any­way, speak­ing of, uh, Amer­i­can icons who passed away, Alan Greenspan died today, last night, Tony. Um, 100 years old he was

Tony Kynas­ton: He nev­er looked all that healthy, so that’s amaz­ing he got to 100 years old. Prob­a­bly ’cause he was in a very stress­ful job

Cameron: Yeah. What a, I mean, um, what a [00:12:00] career. Uh,

Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

Cameron: read that, um, he was chair­man of the Fed for 20-some­thing years through, I think, eight pres­i­dents or some­thing like that. Just a, an incred­i­ble career and, you know, not all good. Like, he copped a lot of, uh, blame for what hap­pened after he left, um, the, the GFC. Uh, copped a lot of flak for that.

So in the last 20 years, his rep­u­ta­tion has­n’t been as strong as it was dur­ing his decades run­ning the Fed. And I was always fas­ci­nat­ed. I’ve always been a big fan of Ayn Rand, despite the fact that I’m left of Che Gue­vara. I’ve always, been a big fan of Ayn Rand and her writ­ing and her think­ing.

I think she was flawed in many ways, but I admire her, uh, attempts to pro­vide a moral frame­work around free enter­prise and cap­i­tal­ism. [00:13:00] And, know, I’m, I’m one of the few peo­ple that can read Chom­sky and Che Gue­vara and Ayn Rand and, and, and, and be hap­py, you know? My– That’d be my, my favorite kind of a din­ner par­ty would be to have Chom­sky and Ayn Rand and Che Gue­vara and Fidel and, I don’t know,

Tony Kynas­ton: I’ll be agree­ing a lot of things I would’ve thought

Cameron: Yeah, maybe. Alan Greenspan died. Uh, what are your

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, you men­tioned, well, you men­tioned Ayn Rand because he was part, part of her cir­cle, was­n’t he? Used to go to par­ties with Ayn Rand

Cameron: his first wife intro­duced him to Ayn Rand, I, I learned in the New York obit. And, um, and he argued with her, and then ’cause, you know, he was, um, you know, sort of a clas­si­cal, um, econ­o­mist. uh, he– she end­ed up con­vinc­ing him that he was wrong and, you know, he changed a lot of his opin­ions on how the econ­o­my should work based on what he learned from Ayn [00:14:00] Rand.

So like that, when I first learned about that years ago, that blew my mind, that the guy that was run­ning the Fed basi­cal­ly, you know, got his phi­los- his philo­soph­i­cal frame­work from Ayn Rand. Um, yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: And that was used as a crit­i­cism when it became wide­ly known that, you know, Peter has that mon­ey. Um, he. There’s a lot of good quotes about. that came out of the Greenspan years. Um, and, you know, apart from he presided over bub­bles, I think is prob­a­bly the, the main crit­i­cism. So you’d have years of mar­ket exu­ber­ance and then a crash, and that was large­ly put down to what was called the Greenspan put.

Every time the stock mar­ket would get into trou­ble, you could rely on the Fed to cut inter­est rates and, and, you know, give it a, a jump, a lead start again. So the mar­ket bec- There was a bit of a moral haz­ard there with the way that he was oper­at­ing or seemed to be oper­at­ing. And he always. I mean, he famous­ly said that his job [00:15:00] was to, was to take away the punch­bowl when the par­ty was get­ting start­ed, and, um, that’s how he saw what he should be doing.

But, um, he kin­da did­n’t do that. He was always late to do that. That was the biggest crit­i­cism. But, you know, um, and he also, I think too, was shaped by the fact that I think he came after Vol­ck­er, who was, um, respon­si­ble for ve-very big inter­est rate ris­es to, to, um, clean up, uh, the econ­o­my after the ’70, the ear­ly ’70s oil crash.

But,

Cameron: Mm-hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: sent inter­est rates spik­ing because the, the, the Fed chair before him was slow to put inter­est rates up. So Vol­ck­er went hard, inter­est rates went up, and Greenspan was kin­da shaped by that his­to­ry as well, that he had to be a bit slow­er in putting inter­est rates up to build the econ­o­my. So in the course, that led to the mar­ket get­ting a lot of, um, a lot of, uh, hot air under­neath it, and then, um, he was late to take the punch­bowl away and rise, raise inter­est rates and the mar­ket crashed.

So

Cameron: [00:16:00] Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: a tough, tough gig

Cameron: Yeah Well, speak­ing of tough gigs, um Cred­it Corp has pulled their offer on, uh, Aber­crom­bie’s trou­bled Humm, Tony, is

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: The Fin this morn­ing. I see you had this in your notes as well. I saw it this morn­ing.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, Emma

Cameron: com­mer­cial due dili­gence, Cred­it Corp raised a num­ber of mat­ters which it was unable to gain com­fort on fol­low­ing fur­ther dis­cus­sions with Humm.

Humm has con­firmed over the week­end that a mutu­al­ly accept­able trans­ac­tion can­not be agreed between the two par­ties

Tony Kynas­ton: Yes, and the Humm share price has dropped and the Cred­it Corp share price has gone up. So that kind of gives you an assess­ment of, of what big share­hold­ers thought of, uh, of the deal on the Cred­it Corp side any­way

Cameron: Mm.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, it’s, it’s a bit of a mess and, um, it’s now s- Hum­m’s now a sell. I know it was on the buy list last year and, uh, I don’t know what will hap­pen.

I mean, they [00:17:00] had field­ed a, a bid from, um, uh, from their biggest share­hold­er, their founder, David Crom­bie, who tried to take it, uh, pri­vate last year and, uh, he may now try that again giv­en the share price is down and, and the only suit­or has walked away, so we’ll see

Cameron: Mm. And when you say the, um, sh- Humm share price has fall­en, that’s putting it mild­ly. Um, it was, uh, 58 cents, six- near­ly s- 59 cents last week. It’s cur­rent­ly 45 cents. So wow, that’s a

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: that’s a big hit

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: And what’s Cred­it Cor­p’s, uh, tick­er? Is it CCA?

Tony Kynas­ton: It’s, it’s your favorite one, isn’t it? CCP

Cameron: that’s right. Yeah, and it’s, it, it was $13.26. It’s dropped a lit­tle bit to $12.70, but, um, in the [00:18:00] last it’s gone from 11 bucks up to $12.70, so it’s show­ing pos­i­tive signs

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, I think it dropped when they made the bid.

Cameron: Right.

Tony Kynas­ton: weren’t hap­py. You know, the share­hold­ers weren’t hap­py

Cameron: Yeah, but I don’t hold either CCP or HUM in any of my port­fo­lios, so just good for peo­ple out there if they do pay atten­tion to what’s going on with that. Um, CCL, Casel­la, we did a show about them back in April. You did them as a Pulled Pork, and at the time it had been sug­gest­ed by some­body asked us to have a look at it and, um, I think it might have been Dave, some­body like that.

But it was­n’t in Stock Doc­tor because of the GICS clas­si­fi­ca­tion. Well, now it’s on the top of my buy list, but it still does­n’t have a GICS. GICS? GICS? G‑G-GICS code. Uh, Stock Doc­tor still says CCL has not had a GICS code [00:19:00] assigned to it, and as such, does not have a finan­cial health rat­ing. But it was in my down­load and, a‑a-and it’s at the top of the buy list this week, so I bought it.

But I can’t fig­ure that out because I still– I haven’t changed my fil­ters to put the, uh, no clas­si­fi­ca­tion ones in there

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, I changed mine to include the no ques­tion. But Casel­la’s been there, so I can’t

Cameron: Right. Okay.

Tony Kynas­ton: But enough said, Steve?

Cameron: I checked yes­ter­day.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: did I. I can’t remem­ber that I made that change. Did I make that change?” Did­n’t make the change. But, um, it’s, it’s in there any­way, so I can’t fig­ure out how that worked.

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, they must have a GICS clas­si­fi­ca­tion and Stock Doc­tor just haven’t giv­en them a finan­cial health rat­ing yet. Would be my guess

Cameron: uh, maybe they haven’t caught up. Yeah, right. I don’t know how to tell if they have a rat­ing in Stock Doc­tor or, or what it is. I just saw that note against them in Stock Doc­tor.

Tony Kynas­ton: Have a look

Cameron: I don’t know where to find [00:20:00] that, uh,

Tony Kynas­ton: on the front page. It’s,

Cameron: okay

Tony Kynas­ton: it’s actu­al­ly say­ing it’s sat­is­fac­to­ry. So I don’t know why that’s not being down­loaded. Finan­cial health sat­is­fac­to­ry on the front page

Cameron: Yeah, so it does. if you sc- if you look over in the ana­lyst com­ments under strate­gic, has not had a GICS code assigned to it.

Tony Kynas­ton: But that was back in the 26th of March, so that just has­n’t been updat­ed, I don’t think

Cameron: Ah, they just haven’t updat­ed their

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. That’d be my guess

Cameron: Right, where do you see that they have a code?

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, well, the only way to do it, I think, would be to. You’d have to fil­ter on it

Cameron: Oh, okay. Well, we don’t, we don’t have to go down that rab­bit hole,

Tony Kynas­ton: Nah.

Cameron: go.

Tony Kynas­ton: No, sor­ry.

Cameron: thought it was inter­est­ing

Tony Kynas­ton: it eas­i­ly

Cameron: were actu­al­ly, uh, in the buy list now.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: they, they got one at some point Okay. Uh, the only oth­er bit of news that I’ve got or point is that, um, I have had a few peo­ple over the last cou­ple of [00:21:00] months, Aus­tralian mem­bers ask if, uh, we had a deal for peo­ple who also want­ed a US mem­ber­ship, we did­n’t because they’re run­ning on two sep­a­rate sites, and it was just com­pli­cat­ed and con­vo­lut­ed. I could have just cre­at­ed, I guess, a pro­mo­tion code or some­thing. But any­way, I did­n’t, did­n’t think of that. So, but I built some­thing, I cod­ed some­thing, so now there is a mem­ber­ship hub. So if

Tony Kynas­ton: Fortes­cue

Cameron: if you, um, uh, go to the mem­bers resources page, you’ll see a link to it there. I’ve also post­ed on Face­book, and I’ll put it in some emails.

But get a dis­count if you wan­na get the US mem­ber­ship, lim­it­ed time only. Jump in if you wan­na have both. I know there’s a few peo­ple that are keen to have both. So, uh, check that out while stocks last. What have you got on your, uh, list of things to talk about, TK?

Tony Kynas­ton: The only oth­er thing I had was to talk about Karoon, so K‑A-R. It was a stock I owned until recent­ly when the oil price became a sell. Uh, [00:22:00] it’s– I since sell­ing it, I’ve read an arti­cle, uh, in Intel­li­gent Investor, and they, they are talk­ing about the share price being down, not just because of the oil price, but also because they’re hav­ing some, uh, prob­lems with their, their, uh, facil­i­ties.

And, um, Intel­li­gent Investor report­ed that, as y‑as you recall, Karoon owns a cou­ple of fields over in, uh, Brazil and one of them called Baú­na, and they have a seri­ous leak in the facil­i­ty, and it’s got­ten worse. And, uh, they’re report­ing that the repairs to restore the out­put won’t be com­plet­ed until the end of next year, so that’s a long time to wait.

And because of that, the pro­duc­tion from the Baú­na field is down from two point one to two point five mil­lion bar­rels to just one point two to one point five mil­lion bar­rels, so that’s kind of halved. And, um, you know, they– Karoon paid sev­en hun­dred and twen­ty mil­lion [00:23:00] dol­lars,

Cameron: US

Tony Kynas­ton: three years ago, US, to pur­chase a, a stake in the Baú­na field, thir­ty per­cent stake.

Um, and at that time, they expect­ed four to four and a half mil­lion bar­rels of out­put, so they’re well below what they paid for. Um, and, uh, you know, it’s, it’s been a dis­as­ter, and we haven’t real­ly heard much from man­age­ment about it. They did change their CEO, which I sus­pect was because of that. But, um, it’s still gonna take a long time to get fixed.

And it’s also com­ing on the back of the fact that they have anoth­er field called Baú­na or Baú­na, um, which is also expe­ri­enc­ing delays because of weath­er and some mechan­i­cal, uh, prob­lems as well. But, um, they– Karoon recent­ly cut their full year guid­ance, uh, by about twelve per­cent. So, and that’s in the lat­est in a long series of pro­duc­tion cuts.

So, um, I thought Karoon, um, was in bet­ter shape than that, and the s- the share [00:24:00] price went up when the oil price rose, but it cer­tain­ly dropped again when the oil prices dropped, and it looks like it’s, uh, it’s stay­ing down for the count until they can fix them­selves up a lit­tle bit

Cameron: Oh, well, good thing that, uh, the 3PTL got us out of it

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Well, the com­mod­i­ty one in par­tic­u­lar, that’s the one that saved me. Yeah.

Cameron: three PTL com­mod­i­ty thing.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

Cameron: Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: So, um, I think I did take a slight loss on it ’cause I was a day late get­ting out. I did­n’t, um,

Cameron: Oof

Tony Kynas­ton: did­n’t act until the next day after the sig­nal, but, um, it wa- I did­n’t come out too bad­ly. And I bought, uh, Chal­lenger, which has gone up, which is good

Cameron: Oh, Chal­lenger has gone up, has it? It was going down the last time I looked. I got out of Caro– I got out of Karoon most­ly at a prof­it, um, across most of the port­fo­lios. I think one of the light port­fo­lios took a 6% loss on it, but sold out at $2.03

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, well done

Cameron: only, when was that? Geez, [00:25:00] the 15th of June, so a week ago.

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, why did you sell out? Because of the oil price changed?

Cameron: Yeah, the com­mod­i­ty sell, yeah. And now it’s, uh, $1.40.

Tony Kynas­ton: No.

Cameron: So we dodged that bul­let

Tony Kynas­ton: I got out for less than you, but I wait­ed for a day or two. Um, but, you know, got the alert late in the day and wait­ed and, um, then got out and I, I had a rea­son­ably large hold­ing, so I prob­a­bly pushed the price down as I was get­ting out too. But I did­n’t get out too bad­ly

Cameron: Oh, there we go. Got out before you. That’s good. You can always get out before TK. Um, sold

Tony Kynas­ton: the par­ty

Cameron: sold Hori­zon too at the same day.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: Uh, 21 and a half. It’s still 21 cents, so it has­n’t moved much. Took a, took a on that. Lost, uh, 20% on one par­cel, 16% on anoth­er par­cel. Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Well, I, I real­ly was wait­ing, hop­ing that the, um, you know, I would­n’t have to sell until the results came out in a month [00:26:00] or so’s time because, uh, you know, it’d be inter­est­ing to see what the mar­gin increase has been on a com­pa­ny like Karoon with, uh, the oil price being high.

Cameron: Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: but yeah. Any­way, rules are rules and I’m out

Cameron: Also sold, uh, Viva Ener­gy Group on the same day at $2.25. It’s now $2.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: So wow. Yeah. That’s good, good, uh, I’m glad we have the, the com­mod­i­ty sell. Uh, it it

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: cou­ple of days. I had to sell out a bunch of stuff. What about Brook­side, BRK? Yeah, that too. Sold BRK at 46 cents. It’s now 41 cents, so d- anoth­er 10% or more down. So yeah, stuff. Hap­py about the rules

Tony Kynas­ton: Yes, exact­ly.

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: for, to pro­tect us

Cameron: Hmm. Well, uh, you want to do your Pulled Pork [00:27:00] now?

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. And look, uh, apolo­gies to peo­ple in advance. I’m doing it on a very small, thin­ly trad­ed stock, but, uh, there was­n’t any­thing I could see on the buy list that had a large ADT that we had­n’t cov­ered in the last twelve months, so.

Cameron: Was this

Tony Kynas­ton: s-

Cameron: list?

Tony Kynas­ton: oh, it’s not the one I do, ’cause I don’t have the, um, low ADT fil­ter like you do.

Cameron: Oh, right, right, right

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. And, um- Look, I, I’ll do it, um, A, because, uh, it’s fun to pull apart a com­pa­ny and we can learn things from just that analy­sis any­way that might apply to oth­er com­pa­nies that we look at. But, um, you know, I, I did think that maybe small ADT stocks would­n’t be a bad place for some­one with a, a, like a teenag­er they’re try­ing to teach invest­ing to, to start, you know, a small account with, um, you know, Comm­Bank or CMC trad­ing or what­ev­er and, and play around.

So I’ll go through it. Um, but also too, if any­body, um, has some, um, you know, sug­ges­tions for Pulled Pork, let us know ’ cause we, we [00:28:00] might be in the same sit­u­a­tion next week or in the future. The oth­er one I want­ed to also bounce off you and the lis­ten­ers was, you know, do we go back and revis­it some stocks that were on the buy list that we haven’t cov­ered but have gone through or their stock prices are much high­er, so they’re, they’re now– their, um, QAV scores are below point one because of the price increase?

So it might be worth­while cov­er­ing off on some of those just to see where they are, even though we’re not gonna buy them, um, ’cause some peo­ple may hold them. But, um, any­way, if any­one’s got a rec­om­men­da­tion, let me know or a pref­er­ence. Um, yeah, I can, uh,

Cameron: Okay

Tony Kynas­ton: incor­po­rate it next week. Uh, so yeah, so this is a small ADT stock.

It’s only trad­ing, um, two thou­sand dol­lars per day accord­ing to Stock Doc­tor. And That, that’s more. May not be a bad thing in this case, though, because it’s part­ly due to insid­ers hold­ing about two-thirds of the stock. So it’s got a very small float, and that, [00:29:00] that’s large­ly due to the fact that it’s had, it’s got an own­er founder.

So that’s a good thing, I think, in this case. Um, who are they? Well, actu­al­ly, Ser­vices Group has been around for a long time. They were estab­lished in nine­teen six­ty-eight, and they, they, um, start­ed off as a labor hire busi­ness in Syd­ney. They’ve kind of grown from there, expand­ed all over Aus­tralia. Still are main­ly a labor hire firm, but they also do a lot of, uh, train­ing and also do some, um, you know, sort of ser­vice pro­vi­sion where you, you sort of buy a pack­age of them.

Like, for exam­ple, if you’re doing some road­works, they might, uh, not just pro­vide the casu­al staff, but they’ll do the whole end-to-end offer­ing for you as well. Um, so they employ a cou­ple of hun­dred staff around Aus­tralia now. They oper­ate from thir­ty offices, and they list­ed on the ASX back in two thou­sand and four­teen.

So it’s, um, been around for a long time. Bit of a sto­ried his­to­ry, which I’ll go through in a minute. [00:30:00] There are three main divi­sions. The biggest one is labor hire and recruit­ment, uh, and so they focus on, uh, pro­vid­ing casu­al work­ers main­ly in like logis­tics, ware­hous­ing, sup­ply chain, man­u­fac­tur­ing, um, but also they do pro­vide skilled trades­peo­ple to engi­neer­ing com­pa­nies, elec­tri­cians and mechan­ics, that kind of thing.

And they’ve branched out, um, over the years into WA, where they sup­ply a lot of staff to the oil and gas and min­ing sec­tors, and, uh, they also sup­ply, they ser­vice region­al areas for staff in the agri­cul­tur­al, hor­ti­cul­tur­al sec­tors, and they do a lot of work, as I said before, in the road­side con­struc­tion area.

So main­ly a labor hire firm, but they’ve also, um, devel­oped a train­ing busi­ness. So they have a cou­ple of brands, the Ash­ley Insti­tute of Train­ing, uh, brand, which offers accred­it­ed cours­es in child­care, aged care, [00:31:00] telecom­mu­ni­ca­tions, that kind of thing. Um, they also pro­vide train­ing in, via a com­pa­ny called The Instruc­tion Com­pa­ny, uh, rail­way oper­a­tions and rail infra­struc­ture busi­ness­es and train­ing, and a com­pa­ny called AIVD, which is the Aus­tralian Insti­tute of Voca­tion­al Devel­op­ment, which focus­es on civ­il con­struc­tion, dis­abil­i­ty sup­port, com­mu­ni­ty ser­vices.

So pret­ty wide-rang­ing in what they do. Um, and, and this busi­ness grew out of the fact that, num­ber one, the gov­ern­ment sort of for­mal­ized the train­ing and voca­tion­al sec­tor, the pri­vate sec­tor, around the same time as it did a lot of restruc­tur­ing of the, uh, TAFE, uh, CAE and uni­ver­si­ty sec­tors. So now you have to be a reg­is­tered, uh, train­ing com­pa­ny to be able to issue diplo­mas and cer­tifi­cates and, um, uh, you’re reg­u­lat­ed by the gov­ern­ment in doing that.

But they found that, um, a lot of the– a lot of their, uh, labor hire casu­als were [00:32:00] fac­ing bot­tle­necks in where they, they could work because they did­n’t have a fork­lift cer­tifi­cate or they did­n’t have the rel­e­vant, the build­ing site, uh, cer­tifi­cates to get onto a build­ing site, for exam­ple. And so they sort of went on the front foot and start­ed train­ing peo­ple to do that.

And, um, the staff were able to get gov­ern­ment assis­tance to, to pay for the train­ing as well. So kind of was a win-win, um, all around. They were able to place more peo­ple and more casu­als got, got jobs. So that was, uh, not a bad out­come. Um The, I guess one of the things to point out is that this is a bit of a turn­around sit­u­a­tion.

So in ear­ly twen­ty twen­ty-three, the stock price was eighty-five cents. Uh, and then they lost a, a high mar­gin con­tract, uh, with a com­pa­ny called Inpex, I‑N-P-E‑X, and that was in WA. Uh, and, um, the loss of that busi­ness real­ly, uh, crunched their mar­gins. So Inpex was oper­at­ing in the ener­gy and oil [00:33:00] sec­tor in WA, and they.

the, the recruit­ment busi­ness or the recruit­ment branch over there was rely­ing pret­ty heav­i­ly on that con­tract, and they lost it, so it hurt them. Um, but also at the same time, as we know, infla­tion’s been high in the last year or so. Uh, so their, the prof­its, and it’s a pret­ty thin prof­it mar­gin busi­ness any­way.

But between ris­ing wage pres­sures and cor­po­rate infla­tion, their prof­its, uh, crashed from a sort of sta­ble ongo­ing two per­cent down to about a tenth of that, point two per­cent in twen­ty twen­ty-four. And that also, um, meant that, uh, Ash had to, uh, cut their div­i­dend. And they were oper­at­ing on a high yield up until then and being a con­sis­tent div­i­dend pay­er, and that was one of the things which attract­ed peo­ple to invest in the busi­ness.

And then when the div­i­dend was cut, um, a lot of those, uh, investors sold out. And, um, you know, the share price went from [00:34:00] eighty-five cents down to about twen­ty-five cents, where it sits today. Uh, but they have been able to rebuild the busi­ness, um, since that loss of the Inpex con­tract, and the lat­est results are quite good.

So, um, lat­est results show that net income has surged eighty-eight per­cent and that, uh, they’ve had record first half rev­enue of three hun­dred and eight mil­lion, which was for the first half twen­ty-six. So cur­rent results are good, and they’ve rein­sti­tut­ed their div­i­dend, and it’s, uh, at point eight cents.

So it’s trad­ing on a around five. I think it’s about five point six per­cent yield at the moment. So it’s kind of recov­ered, at least from a, on a busi­ness side of things, from where it was when it lost the Inpex, uh, con­tract, but the share price is still low. So clas­sic turn­around sto­ry for us. Bit of his­to­ry.

Um, it cer­tain­ly had, uh, a, um, check­ered his­to­ry. Um, ear­ly days, it start­ed in, um, nine­teen six­ty-eight, as I said before. Com­pa­nies were called All­man Indus­tries and Action [00:35:00] Work­force, and they, uh, they, um, tar­get­ed, uh, labor hire, uh, in areas expe- expe­ri­enc­ing short­ages in Syd­ney and the local trans­port ware­hous­ing and logis­tics sec­tors in par­tic­u­lar.

Uh, and then in the 1980s and 1990s, um, Action Work­force scaled their oper­a­tions out­side of New South Wales. They set up busi­ness­es in Mel­bourne and s- Bris­bane as well, and they also expand­ed out into retail and man­u­fac­tur­ing sup­ply chains. Prob­a­bly the biggest thing that hap­pened to them, um, after that peri­od was in 1999 when, uh, a char­tered accoun­tant named Ross Shrimp­ton, who is still, you know, the cur­rent man­ag­ing direc­tor, pur­chased Action Work­force for rough­ly two mil­lion dol­lars and, um, he merged the busi­ness with a labor hire firm his wife had estab­lished, um, from, you know, the back of the garage, uh, six years pri­or.

And then, um Went, uh, in, you know, grew [00:36:00] from there and in two thou­sand and four, uh, went, um, went into the train­ing busi­ness. So he real­ized that, uh, labor hire was a com­modi­tized busi­ness, but that if he could, um, acquire and build reg­is­tered train­ing orga­ni­za­tions, they could upskill their own data­base of labor­ers, and that would be a unique pure busi­ness mod­el, um, which worked well for them.

And then that led to the pub­lic list­ing on the ASX in two thou­sand and four­teen, um, which raised just under a hun­dred mil­lion at the time, which, um, giv­en that he had a large share­hold­ing, was a good pay­day for him. Um, but so short­ly after list­ing, the com­pa­ny hit a major hur­dle. Uh, the Aus­tralian Fed­er­al Gov­ern­ment over­hauled the, uh, voca­tion­al edu­ca­tion and train­ing sec­tor.

They froze fund­ing across a, across a lot of, um, pri­vate reg­is­tered train­ing orga­ni­za­tions due to wide­spread indus­try com­pli­ance issues, and then, um, had to [00:37:00] go into a series of trad­ing halts. They expe­ri­enced a sharp drop in prof­it, and they were forced to aggres­sive­ly restruc­ture and divest under­per­form­ing train­ing busi­ness­es.

Um, so that again re- um, caused them to rebal­ance. They, uh, expand­ed on a series of acqui­si­tions, um, espe­cial­ly in the engi­neer­ing side of things and the oil and gas sec­tor, which I spoke about before. Uh, and they also restruc­tured the train­ing busi­ness and con­tin­ued to, um, expand that on a bet­ter foot­ing.

But what, what hap­pened after the float was that, um, they float­ed it at a dol­lar six­ty-six, and then, um, it was­n’t soon after they float­ed it, they shocked the mar­ket by announc­ing that they were expe­ri­enc­ing dif­fi­cult trad­ing con­di­tions, and they down­grad­ed their prof­it guid­ance a cou­ple of months soon after list­ing.

And that trig­gered a class action law­suit against them alleg­ing, uh, [00:38:00] mis­lead­ing, uh, guid­ance in the. and, and advice in the float, the IPO doc­u­ments. Um, and that dragged through the courts for a cou­ple of years. And as often hap­pens in these cas­es, the, the court, the fed­er­al court ruled that, um, they had to pay out four­teen point six mil­lion dol­lars in a set­tle­ment with the class action, but they did­n’t have to admit any lia­bil­i­ty.

Um, and that’s typ­i­cal­ly what hap­pens in these sec– in these, uh, out­comes. Um, the com­pa­ny had pro­vid­ed, uh, and had insur­ance for this kind of thing, so they, um, they basi­cal­ly, uh, by about two thou­sand and nine­teen were able to recov­er with­out too much dam­age. Um- So that’s the sort of his­to­ry since they list­ed.

I want to spend a bit of time talk­ing about the own­er founder. So, uh, he is a char­tered accoun­tant, spent fif­teen years, uh, in com­pa­nies like Deloitte Touche Tohmat­su, which I think [00:39:00] is now part of one of the oth­er big four com­pa­nies in the sec­tor. And he worked in, also worked in com­pa­nies like CSR before decid­ing to branch out and become a bit more entre­pre­neur­ial.

He, um, lever­aged the fam­i­ly home to do it, to buy the, the labor hire firm I spoke about before. And then, um, it all paid off for him when, uh, the equi­ty posi­tion of the fam­i­ly was about a hun­dred and eighty mil­lion dol­lars fol­low­ing the float of some of the shares in the busi­ness. Um, he still does, though, con­trol fifty-eight odd per­cent of the com­pa­ny, so he’s stuck with it over the years, although I think he did use some of the IPO pro­ceeds to, uh, to, to acquire, uh, some com­pa­nies to help Ash grow.

Um, but recent­ly he’s been back in the mar­ket as it has some of the oth­er insid­ers, and they’ve been buy­ing shares up, um, at the ear­ly part of the year when the share price was depressed, which is anoth­er good thing to see. So, um He’s done well with the [00:40:00] com­pa­ny, uh, as I said before, achiev­ing record rev­enue for the six months and a half and, um, they also, uh, you know, boost­ed prof­it a lot to, to, um, by eighty-eight per­cent.

So, uh, com­pa­ny’s turn­ing around. He’s been buy­ing, um, and it’s a, a sort of strong own­er founder posi­tion. Looks good on the QAV num­bers point of view as well. Stock price was twen­ty-five cents when I did the analy­sis yes­ter­day. We don’t have any bro­ker cov­er­age for this com­pa­ny, so I can’t give it a con­sen­sus price tar­get, um, or an IV2 cal­cu­la­tion.

IV1’s only thir­teen cents, so we can’t, uh, score it for, for the stock price being less than IV1. Net equi­ty per share is twen­ty-five cents, so it does score for book val­ue. But I do wan­na point out that the net tan­gi­ble assets are only about eight cents, and that’s because they’ve done all the acqui­si­tions and they’re car­ry­ing good­will.

Um, yield, again, we just can’t quite score it. Yield is five point six [00:41:00] per­cent, which is very good, but, um, the cur­rent mort­gage rate accord­ing to the, um, mort­gage rate accord­ing to the RBA is about five point nine five per­cent at the moment, so we can’t score it for yield. Uh, Stock Doc­tor finan­cial health is only mar­gin­al, so we can’t score it for them.

But that’s, uh, trend is steady, um, so it gets a score for that. But, um, mar­gin­al is not great, which is inter­est­ing because Stock­o­pe­dia rank it eighty-two for qual­i­ty, and they give it a net score of eighty out of nine, which is very high and, you know, near­ly per­fect. And the over­all rank in Stock­o­pe­dia is nine­ty-eight.

So, um, they score it well for qual­i­ty and for over­all as well. Uh, PE for this com­pa­ny is ten times, um, and it’s not the high­est or the low­est, so we don’t, uh, score it for that. It is a new three-point trend­line upturn, um, prob­a­bly based on the lat­est results, so we score it for that. PROPCAF is only three, just over three times, three point one three, so we score it for that.

Uh, we don’t [00:42:00] have any fore­cast because there’s no bro­ker cov­er­age, so we can’t score it for growth over PE. Does have an own­er founder, so, um, we can score it for that. But over­all, the qual­i­ty score is nine out of twelve or sev­en­ty-five per­cent But we see it as being rea­son­able qual­i­ty and the QAV score is point two four, which is quite high on the, on the buy list.

Risk and oppor­tu­ni­ties. Well, it’s a small ADT stock, and the last twelve months have shown how volatile it can be. It has a low free float, so, um, uh, that can work both ways. Uh, it would­n’t sur­prise me at all with insid­er buy­ing and good results if we don’t see the share price recov­er­ing, um, quick­ly. But that’s a, that’s a pre­dic­tion.

We’ll see what hap­pens. Uh, but, um, yeah, I think in this case, his­to­ry, his­to­ry itself pro­vides the best risk analy­sis. You know, they were over-depen­dent on one high mar­gin con­tract which they lost, which, you know, kind of killed their, their, um, low mar­gin, uh, [00:43:00] busi­ness mod­el. And once before in the past, the gov­ern­ment rejigged the train­ing, uh, land­scape and that hurt them as well.

But I guess the, the flip side of that is they’ve had con­sis­tent man­age­ment the whole time and they’ve learnt from these, these, uh, risks and they’ve kind of, um, diver­si­fied and restruc­tured the busi­ness away from them. So that’s got to be a good thing as well. Uh, yeah, so, um, inter­est­ing lit­tle busi­ness.

Uh, strong own­er founder in it, uh, and, uh, scor­ing well in Stock­o­pe­dia, scor­ing well on the, on the QAV, um, check­list. So have a look at Ash­ley if you wan­na get involved in a very small ADT com­pa­ny

Cameron: It’s about 2,000, the ADT, right? So it’s very,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Very, very small. Yep

Cameron: Thank you, TK. Nev­er heard of him before. Ash

Tony Kynas­ton: I had­n’t either, but inter­est­ing lit­tle com­pa­ny

Cameron: Hmm. Uh, one thing before we get into after hours, I just want­ed to point out is that next week will be the end of [00:44:00] the finan­cial year, and so I encour­age every­one to do their num­bers and send us their num­bers and tell me if I can use them pub­licly on the web­site, uh, et cetera, et cetera. If you’re hap­py for me to pub­lish it as a tes­ti­mo­ni­al, et cetera. But, um, num­bers are look­ing good as always. Uh, it’s been a good year. I mean, it’s inter­est­ing just look­ing at the Ords for the year. So a year ago, so the begin­ning of the finan­cial year, it was at eight thou­sand sev­en hun­dred sev­en­ty-two. Cur­rent­ly at a, uh, nine thou­sand thir­ty-one. So it’s been a bit of a jaggedy year.

It’s got up around nine­ty-four hun­dred a cou­ple of times and then fall­en back down to earth and to get back up. But yeah, it has­n’t been the best year the mar­ket, but a year for us, though, look­ing at the Aus­tralian dum­my port­fo­lio [00:45:00] for the last one year. Uh, for the last twelve months, the SPDR two hun­dred is up about eight per­cent and the dum­my port­fo­lio is slight­ly beat­ing it at thir­ty-four per­cent.

So made you feel good.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Made you feel all good, yep.

Cameron: And the light port­fo­lios as a group are up forty per­cent, uh, in the last twelve months ver­sus eight. So yeah, you know, uh, it’s going good. It’s going pret­ty– It’s been a good year. Been a good year for us, despite the mar­ket hav­ing a so-so year

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, there’s been a lot of, a lot of macro activ­i­ty this year with, with, um,

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony Kynas­ton: tar­iffs and with the oil price and the Straits of Hor­muz and, and, uh, all of that. [00:46:00] So, you know, it’s, it’s good to have a set of rules that get us through all that and do it prof­itably as well

Cameron: all that or oil that?

Tony Kynas­ton: And all that, I said all that

Cameron: Well, there’s the, this is it. The episode title for this week is,

Tony Kynas­ton: All Ords ideals?

Cameron: Oil That. Oil That. It’s a good Sparks song called All That.

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, is it? Okay.

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Is that such a thing? Did­n’t know it was such a thing

Cameron: Oh, man. That’s harsh. They tend to, they tend to fin­ish their shows with it, All

Tony Kynas­ton: Okay

Cameron: It’s sort of like a, th- uh, an anthem.

Tony Kynas­ton: Right

Cameron: that we’ve done, we’ve lost, we’ve won, all that, all that and more. All the things you said to me, and all the times you prayed for me, and all the holy places we would go. I don’t need to fool around, and I don’t need to drool around. I’m with you till God says it’s time to go

Tony Kynas­ton: It’s a bit reli­gious to me

Cameron: [00:47:00] They, they, they, they use a lit­tle bit of reli­gious sym­bol­ism in their songs, usu­al­ly to make fun of it, but, uh, oc- occa­sion­al­ly it’s like that, yeah. Yeah, any­way, good song. Uh, well, After Hours, uh, what you got for me, TK, see­ing as you’re, um, show­ing such dis­re­spect for The Sparks

Tony Kynas­ton: I just, I haven’t paid atten­tion to them of late. I saw that doc­u­men­tary you put me onto, which was good. But, um, I still remem­ber the dross they used to have with Beat the Clock and Num­ber 1 Song in Heav­en when M- MTV

Cameron: Got­ta beat the

Tony Kynas­ton: said. Oh, God, I hat­ed that song. It was on high rota­tion on MTV. It was just dread­ful.

Cameron: Well, it’s

Tony Kynas­ton: Any­way

Cameron: ’cause Chris­sy has ADHD and she has time dys­mor­phia. That’s her–

Tony Kynas­ton: Of this movie?

Cameron: Yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: What’s, what’s, what, is she like a d- a Dali paint­ing or some­thing, is she?

Cameron: A

Tony Kynas­ton: Melt­ed clocks?

Cameron: Yeah. She thinks she’s been in the bath­room get­ting ready for five min­utes. It’s been 90 min­utes. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

Cameron: out there for five min­utes.” I go, “No, I timed [00:48:00] you. It was 90 min­utes.” “Ah, that’s bull­shit.” She’s got­ta beat the clock. You got­ta beat the clock, is what I say to her. Beat the clock. Yeah, look, their

Tony Kynas­ton: Well

Cameron: their ’80s stuff was, was mixed. It was a mixed bag. But, yeah, like, you know, it was what it was. It was the ’80s. The eight- the ’80s was a mixed bag.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. True. Uh, have, I’ve been, I’ve been see­ing lit­tle clips of, um, Dave Grohl’s daugh­ter and her music, which is inter­est­ing. Have you been

Cameron: I lis­tened to

Tony Kynas­ton: that at all? Yeah, it’s good, isn’t it? Yeah. Vio­let Grohl, yeah.

Cameron: yeah. Yeah, What’s her name?

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Vio­let.

Cameron: Vio­let, yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: came up, it came up after you men­tioned Grohl or Foo

Tony Kynas­ton: Pr/OpCaf

Cameron: week. I s- I lis­tened to their album, did­n’t real­ly dig it, but then she

Tony Kynas­ton: Thanks, man

Cameron: up in, um, Spo­ti­fy, and I was like, “Oh, okay.” And I, I liked her album a lot more, yeah. It’s

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Yeah, it’s good. And there was a clip I saw of her fronting Dave [00:49:00] Grohl on the drums ’cause they were doing a Nir­vana trib­ute when they were induct­ed into Rock & Roll Hall, Hall of Fame a few years ago. That was pret­ty good too.

Cameron: right. I think I’ve

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Yeah

Cameron: Her and Alice Coop­er’s daugh­ter’s got a band too

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh,

Cameron: like.

Tony Kynas­ton: okay

Cameron: real­ly the lead. It’s kind of like a g- it’s like a, um, sort of a weird, um, as you’d expect, kind of, um, hor­ror-themed met­al band. Can’t remem­ber their

Tony Kynas­ton: Run

Cameron: like Beasts of Death or some­thing like that or some­thing. Um, it’s sort of, yeah, a bit, you know, heav­ier than Alice, but it’s sort of, you know, Rob Zom­bie-ish kind of, know, c- the­atri­cal met­al sort of stuff, and she does in it, but, like, back­up. It’s a male lead singer. She does, like, back­up vocals and dif­fer­ent stuff, but it’s good. Yeah, I real­ly like it too. So these guys with their daugh­ters, the nepo-baby daugh­ters that are

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. exact­ly.

Cameron: Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, yeah. Well, but [00:50:00] it, but it, yeah

Cameron: sor­ry, j- just to close the loop on Alice and Sparks. So f- I was show­ing Fox the Sparks doc­u­men­tary last night ’cause he had­n’t seen it, and there was a bit, uh, ear­ly on they were talk­ing about how their first album was pro­duced by Todd Rund­gren, and they were intro­duced to Todd Rund­gren by Miss Chris­tine from the GTOs ’cause Rus­sell was dat­ing Miss Chris­tine from the GTOs. Chris­tine from the GTOs, the GTOs were liv­ing in Zap­pa’s house when Alice and the band first went to Zap­pa’s

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm

Cameron: um, it was the GTOs that first put make­up on Alice Coop­er, and had, they had a mem­ber called Pamela LeBar who had, um, like spi­der lines com­ing out of her eyes, which was Alice’s first eye make­up I think he dat­ed Miss Chris­tine as well.

And I had just seen yes­ter­day, there’s a, there’s a Zap­pa album, can’t remem­ber what [00:51:00] it’s called, but it’s a pho­to of her stick­ing her head up. She had like this big crazy perm, her head up

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: a, a swim­ming pool, a dry swim­ming pool, which was his swim­ming pool. Um, Alice post­ed that and said that, you know, she died like in the mid-’70s, very young, OD I think. And he said, “I always loved see­ing this pho­to remem­ber­ing Miss Chris­tine. She was immor­tal­ized in this record cov­er and blah, blah, blah, blah.” And then that night I was watch­ing this doc­u­men­tary and saw that so Alice dat­ed her, Todd Rund­gren dat­ed her, Rus­sell dat­ed her, and I think Zap­pa prob­a­bly, I don’t know if Zap­pa dat­ed her, but he was– So yeah, the con­nect­ing Sparks to Alice Coop­er isn’t some­thing that I would’ve imag­ined, but,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: go. Hmm. It’s the ’70s in LA, I guess.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, right.

Cameron: Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: um, we watched a movie the oth­er night, uh, called Song Sung Blue with, uh, Hugh Jack­man in it.

Cameron: Hugh Jack­man Neil Dia­mond cov­er

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Yeah.

Cameron: liked that. Did you like it?

Tony Kynas­ton: um, so-so. Like, it, it’s real­ly good except it’s got some pret­ty bleak [00:52:00] dra­ma in it, which I did­n’t like. But, um, I was just gonna say, like, speak­ing of all those con­nec­tions that the thing I liked the most about it was it was just a lit­tle com­mu­ni­ty of cov­er artists in Mil­wau­kee, which I real­ly liked.

And Michael Impe­ri­oli plays the Bud­dy Hol­ly imper­son­ator who backs Hugh Jack­man when he becomes big with his Neil Dia­mond show, and I thought that was real­ly cool too. But it was real­ly nice see­ing this whole troupe of, you know, um. There was a James Brown imper­son­ator they called the Sex God and, uh, you know, they were just all help­ing each oth­er, and it was– They weren’t mak­ing any mon­ey, and it was just re- it was prob­a­bly the nice side of the whole event.

Um, yeah, look, it’s worth a watch, but it’s, um, it gets pret­ty dark in places, which I did­n’t like. It did­n’t, did­n’t need to be that, um, over­ly dra­mat­ic, I thought. Melo­dra­mat­ic.

Cameron: Did you know that Michael Impe­ri­oli was friends with Lou Reed? Have I told you that sto­ry?

Tony Kynas­ton: way, real­ly?

Cameron: They were– Michael Impe­ri­oli got inter­est­ed in Bud­dhism, I think [00:53:00] he and Lou end­ed up, ’cause Lou was into Bud­dhism, they sort of spent a lot of time in Tibetan Bud- no, Zen Bud­dhist cir­cles I think it was. Yeah. He was, uh, quite close with Lou.

He wrote a book about it that I read, like just sort of his. No, he wrote– It was a nov­el actu­al­ly, that was about a kid who a rela­tion­ship with some­body like Lou Reed. But, um,

Tony Kynas­ton: Wow.

Cameron: Any­way. Hmm

Tony Kynas­ton: Michael and Tori Impe­ri­oli. Okay. I haven’t

Cameron: Yeah, yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: All right

Cameron: So what else you got?

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, speak­ing of music, I mean, does it hold a can­dle to some of the, the music I’m get­ting on my feeds from the World Cup at the moment? Um, have you caught any of that? Scot­land and the Nether­lands and Nor­way doing the row and all this kind of stuff. It’s just great to watch. So joy­ous

Cameron: I watched a, a high­lights clip of Verde play­ing Spain and the goal­keep­er, ’cause my boys told me that this

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah

Cameron: was insane, and it was like a nil-all draw bec- draw [00:54:00] because this from this tiny island did­n’t let any­thing through, and that was pret­ty

Tony Kynas­ton: Right. Yeah. No, just the fans. It’s, it’s been, um, amaz­ing. Like, just. Like, I used to go to a fair few sport­ing match­es in the US, and they’re great but, um, the Euro­peans just do it to a much bet­ter lev­el, it’s the soc­cer fans. And I think Amer­i­ca, it’s been a bit of an eye-open­er for US fans to see the chant­i­ng and the singing.

Like the, the Tar­tan Army, appar­ent­ly they’re based in Boston ’cause all the soc­cer teams are based, um, in dif­fer­ent places in Cana­da or Mex­i­co and the US. And Iran’s based in Mex­i­co, so they have to keep fly­ing straight in and fly­ing straight out after their games. But,

Cameron: I heard that

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah, so, so the Tar­tan Army’s in Boston and they went to Fen­way Park to watch a base­ball game and they just com­plete­ly took over.

Like, the, the, the city ran out of beer on the week­end before a match. They all got togeth­er at a stat­ue of Rob­bie Burns and then they bag­piped their way across the city [00:55:00] to Fen­way Park. And then there’s great clips if you can find them of, um, of them singing, um, chant­i­ng and singing at, at the base­ball game, and it’s just amaz­ing.

And so, like, watch­ing that, watch­ing the Dutch do it, like, watch­ing thou­sands of peo­ple sing the same song and, uh, it’s just incred­i­ble. And, um, and the Nor­we­gians they do a row where they do a sort of slow at the start and it builds up. And they do it in all, all amaz­ing places. Like, they were doing it up esca­la­tors, like sit­ting on the steps row­ing the esca­la­tor up.

It’s pret­ty fun­ny to watch. But yeah, just, just real­ly good. It, it just. Such a con­trast from watch­ing the US fans just go, “USA, USA,” which I absolute­ly despise as a chant, but hope­ful­ly they’ll improve. And then watch­ing, like, the Japan­ese. The Japan­ese fans went to a base­ball game and when it fin­ished they all cleaned up their rub­bish.

They cleaned up the grand­stand of all the rub­bish, which I thought was nice. So yeah, it’s been great watch­ing all that

Cameron: I men­tioned to you off air that Tay­lor has, is in Cannes at the moment, but he was in Copen­hagen before [00:56:00] that, and he and Adam and a cou­ple of oth­er Aussies went to an Aussie bar in Copen­hagen to watch the Aus­tralia-US, uh, match and led them all. He sent me a video of them doing Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, oi, oi, oi in the mid­dle of,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: Copen­hagen, so yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Which is, which is just a, just as nasty a chant as the USA, USA one too, I think

Cameron: Well, I said, “Lis­ten, if you see Queen Mary there, tell her I said hi.” Um, but, uh, appar­ent­ly she, she was­n’t there to sup­port Aus­tralia, which was slight­ly dis­ap­point­ing

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Any­way, well that’s been fun. Um, ha- watch­ing the soc­cer and stuff I came across the Steve Busce­mi Tel­stra ad. Have you seen any of those yet?

Cameron: No.

Tony Kynas­ton: They’re fan­tas­tic. I mean, he’s just, he’s, he’s just next lev­el. It’s, um, it’s, it’s, um, very corny. Like, he, he’s play­ing this sort of, uh, alien hov­er­ing over Earth.

He’s try­ing to, um, [00:57:00] you know, uh, take over the plan­et with a virus, and he’s blocked by Tel­stra. But he’s, he’s just act­ing. It’s just like next lev­el. He’s so good. He’s like, he’s like this kind of world-weary alien who walks into the, into the main part of the space­ship going, “Okay, Arma­tron, pull out the Siva lever.

Oh, what’s this? Tel­stra? Oh, I even know who that is.” It’s just great.

Cameron: I’ll

Tony Kynas­ton: His act­ing’s fan­tas­tic. Yeah, real­ly good. Mm. And then Alex and I fin­ished Spi­der Noir, which was, um, pret­ty good. I enjoyed it.

Cameron: Okay.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

Cameron: might

Tony Kynas­ton: then,

Cameron: back into it

Tony Kynas­ton: we fin­ished sea­son three of Your Friends and Neigh­bors, Jen­ny and I, and that’s fan­tas­tic. I loved it.

That’s so good.

Cameron: up? Okay

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Yes. Oh, it’s, it’s, you know, it’s, um, pret­ty light. James Mars­den comes in as a pro­tag­o­nist or an antag­o­nist in the last series. He plays a bit of a, a steal­er with lots of a– lots of shady stuff going on just to keep things mov­ing

Cameron: where did we run into him?[00:58:00]

Tony Kynas­ton: In the, uh, New York Met­ro­pol­i­tan Art Muse­um

Cameron: Right. It was in New

Tony Kynas­ton: Remem­ber we were there one day and he was there? Yeah,

Cameron: Yeah, you, me, and Alex

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

Cameron: him. Yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. She, she rec­og­nized him. Mm.

Cameron: Mm.

Tony Kynas­ton: And Jon Ham­m’s fan­tas­tic. It’s real­ly, it’s, it’s just great to watch him bum­ble his way through, you know, um, high-end life. But Jen­ny and I like it ’cause it reminds us of where we lived in, in Toron­to.

It looks like it was filmed in our neigh­bor­hood. Prob­a­bly was­n’t, but set in the Hamp­tons in New York. But yeah, it’s good fun. Real­ly enjoy it

Cameron: Well, some­thing to add to the list. I’ve just been watch­ing Game of Thrones again after– Yeah, I’m in like sea­son two now of Game of Thrones, and despite myself enjoy­ing it immense­ly.

Tony Kynas­ton: It is good, isn’t it?

Cameron: The act­ing is great, and it’s inter­est­ing, like the char­ac­ters I’m enjoy­ing and the act­ing I’m enjoy­ing. Like the guy who plays Theon Greyjoy,

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: who’s a, a despi­ca­ble char­ac­ter, like he’s just tak­en Win­ter­fell, and [00:59:00] he’s just.

But his, uh, act­ing, that– what­ev­er that actor’s name is, um, he’s great. Like, he just por­trays that pathet­ic, weak, spine­less char­ac­ter who’s try­ing to act tough and big and impress every­body. He does such a great job.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: and of course, Peter Din­klage is great, and they’re all great. Like all– The

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: real­ly, real­ly great.

Um, yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah

Cameron: great. Some of the lines are great. Um, what was– Yeah, Bronn. The guy who plays Bronn,

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: uh, is great. He has some great lines, which I prob­a­bly can’t say on air. But, uh, yeah, most of them involve call­ing peo­ple the C‑word over and over again. There’s no

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, it is good

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Sor­ry, it was what?

Cameron: uh, he’s got one line, I can’t remem­ber who they’re talk­ing about, but, you know, he goes, “There’s no.”

I, I think they’re talk­ing about the king, uh, Jof­frey, [01:00:00] and Bronn says, “There’s no cure for being a C‑word.” You know, you know? Yeah. Any­way, lot of good lines in it.

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: That’s it. And read­ing, uh, the Colos­sus tril­o­gy, which I’m– wan­na fin­ish. I want– I’ve got oth­er stuff. I’ve, I’ve been read­ing Vaclav Havel’s, uh, book on Pow­er to the Pow­er­less.

I’ve– I’m doing a, an inter­view with some­body on the Bull­shit Fil­ter about it in com­ing weeks, and I’m try­ing to

Tony Kynas­ton: Cut

Cameron: that real­ly. You ever read that? Real­ly good book.

Tony Kynas­ton: No. Okay.

Cameron: Mm.

Tony Kynas­ton: I’m still get­ting through, um, Jef­fer­son. Pret­ty good.

Cameron: yeah. Yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Yeah. But it’s like one of those things where, like, every para­graph I put it down and go onto Google and find out more about the his­to­ry of the time

Cameron: yeah

right? Is

Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Cameron: read these days is I’m, you know, flick­ing back­wards and for­wards, uh, from AI to find out more. Speak­ing of Jef­fer­son, so the actor who plays Stan­nis Baratheon, I first saw play­ing Jef­fer­son in the thing you loaned me [01:01:00] decades ago, the,

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, John Adams. Yeah.

Cameron: the John Adams series. He was

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, right

Cameron: that, you know?

I keep see­ing him as Jef­fer­son again

Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, right

Cameron: in this thing, you know? He was good, real­ly good in that

Tony Kynas­ton: I should go back and watch that again just to read the book, just to put it in con­text. Yeah

Cameron: Who was, who was the main guy who played Adams in that? John

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, um,

Cameron: Is his

Tony Kynas­ton: oh, yeah, the guy from, um, Bil­lions. Um,

Cameron: Yeah

Tony Kynas­ton: uh, what is his name? Geez. S‑slip my mind. Yeah, he is good.

Cameron: Yeah. yeah, yeah. All right. Well, we’ve got a good US show to do. You’re gonna love this sto­ry. It’s juicy. It’s a juicy, juicy, juicy sto­ry. Don’t know if you’ll like the stock. I bought it any­way, but it’s a juicy sto­ry which we’ll get into

Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, hey. Well, we’re gonna cov­er the, um, ques­tion about s- share, share, uh, what do you call them? Uh, stock pay­ments on this show or the US show. You got a ques­tion in your list today about, um, [01:02:00] how the account­ing for share-based com­pen­sa­tion in the US

Cameron: Oh, this is

Tony Kynas­ton: Y-

Cameron: thing about, um, AI builders. So I

Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

Cameron: show. Yeah,

Tony Kynas­ton: cool

Cameron: yeah. Yeah, Does­n’t real­ly relate to this. Uh, well, unless peo­ple are

Tony Kynas­ton: Under

Cameron: and if they’re inter­est­ed, they should lis­ten to the US show. Uh,

Tony Kynas­ton: Go to the US share or

Cameron: You know,

Tony Kynas­ton: peo­ple and you can sub­scribe via the bond. Right

Cameron: stuff on this show, peo­ple com­plained and said, “I don’t care about Amer­i­can stuff,” so they don’t get Amer­i­can stuff.

Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton: Well, they can go and take out the bun­dle now if they wan­na hear about stock com­pen­sa­tion in the US.

Cameron: I mean, we did talk about Elon and Greenspan, but. And Iran, but, you know, that, that affects all of us. All right. Thank you,

Tony Kynas­ton: I got it. Thanks

Cameron: hunt­ing, every­one.

Bernard: Quote of the day:

“Love all, trust a few,

Do wrong to none.”

All’s Well That Ends Well

William Shake­speare

QAV is a check­list-based sys­tem of val­ue invest­ing devel­oped by Tony Kynas­ton over 25 years. To learn more about how it works [01:03:00] and how you can learn the sys­tem, vis­it our web­site, QAV Pod­cast dot com dot AU.

This pod­cast is an infor­ma­tion provider and in giv­ing you prod­uct infor­ma­tion we are not mak­ing any sug­ges­tion or rec­om­men­da­tion about a par­tic­u­lar prod­uct. The infor­ma­tion has been pre­pared with­out tak­ing into account your indi­vid­ual invest­ment objec­tives, finan­cial cir­cum­stances or needs. Before you decide whether or not to acquire a par­tic­u­lar finan­cial prod­uct you should assess whether it is appro­pri­ate for you in the light of your own per­son­al cir­cum­stances, hav­ing regard to your own objec­tives, finan­cial sit­u­a­tion and needs. You may wish to obtain finan­cial advice from a suit­ably qual­i­fied advis­er before mak­ing any deci­sion to acquire a finan­cial prod­uct. Please note that all infor­ma­tion about per­for­mance returns is his­tor­i­cal. Past per­for­mance should not be relied upon as an indi­ca­tor of future per­for­mance; unit prices and the [01:04:00] val­ue of your invest­ment may fall as well as rise. The results are gen­er­al advice only and not per­son­al prod­uct advice.

Trans­paren­cy is impor­tant to us. We will always be very open and hon­est about the stocks we own. We will also always give our audi­ence advance notice when we intend to buy or sell a stock that we are going to talk about on the pod­cast. This is so we can nev­er be accused of pump­ing a stock to our own advan­tage. If we talk about a stock we cur­rent­ly own, we will make it known that we own it.

This email is autho­rised by Antho­ny Kynas­ton. Autho­rised Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Num­ber zero zero 1 2 9 2 7 1 8 of M F & Co. Asset Man­age­ment Pro­pri­etary Lim­it­ed (A F S L five 2 zero 4 4 2). No part of this con­tent may be repro­duced in any form with­out the pri­or con­sent of Space­craft Pub­lish­ing.