QAV Club Weekly Update 2024-05-01

QAV 717 Club

[00:00:00] Cameron: Wel­come back to QAV, TK. This is episode 717. Uh, I think 23rd of April, 2024. Mar­ket’s up today. Uh, what’s up with you, Tony? Apart from the mar­ket.

[00:00:27] Tony: Yeah, not much. It’s been a nice, uh, nice week. Weath­er’s good in Syd­ney.

[00:00:33] Cameron: Sold your house yet?

[00:00:35] Tony: Nup, still try­ing. We had anoth­er meet­ing with an estate agent this morn­ing. Send our rental fur­ni­ture back, wait­ing for our stuff to come out of stor­age. Just a slow, painful process.

[00:00:47] Cameron: How long’s it been on the mar­ket now? Like three months?

[00:00:49] Tony: Yeah. Yeah, it’s unbe­liev­able, isn’t it? Give it a lit­tle, every time I open a paper, it’s like record prices, mar­kets upside dra­mat­i­cal­ly. Yeah. So any­way, we’ll just keep pro­gress­ing, I guess.

[00:01:04] Cameron: Is it the fact that peo­ple know that you have bod­ies in the walls? Is

[00:01:07] Tony: We don’t have bod­ies in the walls.

[00:01:09] Cameron: it’s an Amer­i­can psy­cho thing?

[00:01:12] Tony: No, no, I don’t know. There’s like, there’s about, um, there’s anoth­er cou­ple of pent­hous­es around near us, which aren’t sell­ing artists. I think it’s just a mar­ket thing at the moment.

[00:01:22] Cameron: Bizarre.

[00:01:23] Tony: Yes, it is.

[00:01:24] Cameron: What hap­pened to all the Chi­nese that were snap­ping up all the prop­er­ty in Aus­tralia? It’s

[00:01:29] Tony: I know. So we’ve been told Chi­nese don’t like this neigh­bor­hood. They like, they pre­fer Beran­ga­roo and inner Syd­ney.

[00:01:36] Tony: But frankly, I don’t believe a word of what any­one tells me in the real estate indus­try any­more. They are so full of shit. It’s just, uh, I thought, uh, I thought my faith was, um, you know, placed in the right places. And, um, but yeah, just being let down time and time again.

[00:01:55] Cameron: Wow.

[00:01:57] Tony: And look, this is a, this is a, look, I should­n’t bag peo­ple, but, um, cause it prob­a­bly is the mar­ket, but look.

[00:02:02] Tony: Any­body out there who’s young and con­sid­er­ing a career in any sort of ser­vice indus­try, don’t bull­shit peo­ple. You might think it’s gonna get you a quick sale, but it just comes around to bite you again in the future. Just be, be straight, be trans­par­ent, be hon­est. If you can’t do it, say you can’t do it.

[00:02:20] Tony: Don’t, don’t bull­shit peo­ple and lead them on,

[00:02:24] Cameron: I’ll tell you who’s had a crash course in that is Tay­lor. It’s inter­est­ing, like, you know, Tay­lor got start­ed with the drop ship­ping and all those sorts of things and he saw, you know, very ear­ly on in his entre­pre­neur­ial career, a lot of shon­ky peo­ple doing a lot of shon­ky stuff and now he’s a few years into it and he’s, he’s just, you know, Devel­oped a good sniff test on him now for all these guys that are wav­ing their hands around and claim­ing big things.

[00:02:52] Cameron: And you know, they’re all talk. He’s, he was say­ing to me the oth­er day, I was just like, they’re all just full of shit. Every­one’s full of shit. He knows, he sort of knows how to tell the real peo­ple from the bull­shit artists now. So, which is I think good, you know, it’s good to have fig­ured that out at 23 or what­ev­er he is.

[00:03:10] Tony: yeah, absolute­ly. No, that’s great. Are you

[00:03:14] Cameron: Lot of shys­ter. Well, speak­ing of Shys­ters, bank of Queens­land. Um, the actu­al

[00:03:26] Tony: call­ing my wife a shys­ter, are you?

[00:03:29] Cameron: yeah, well, I did have in my notes, not hap­py gen, but I think the Com­mon­wealth, I’ve tak­en the Com­mon­wealth Bank’s old slo­gan and changed it to not hap­py gen.

[00:03:37] Tony: No, that’s the Yel­low Pages old slo­gan.

[00:03:40] Cameron: was it?

[00:03:41] Tony: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[00:03:41] Cameron: I thought it

[00:03:42] Tony: What do you mean you did­n’t get my ad in for the Yel­low Pages this year? Not hap­py Jan.

[00:03:48] Cameron: Oh, well there you go, I had that wrong. So, as we talked about last week, I had to sell Bank of Queens­land after rumours came out that their results were going to come out on the 17th and they were going to take like a 40 per­cent hit, and the share price crashed ahead of that, and last week I was like, what the hel­l’s going on, on peo­ple sell­ing on rumours?

[00:04:09] Cameron: So I had to sell it, rule one it, results came out, share price jumped, and the results came out. Sell on the rumour, buy on the fact, or buy on the, what­ev­er,

[00:04:19] Tony: right, yep.

[00:04:21] Cameron: um, I mean, it did­n’t jump all the way back, so it was like at 6. 37 on the 4th of April, by the 16th, it was down to 5. 79, on the 17th, it shot back up to 5.

[00:04:33] Cameron: 99. 6. 15, dropped to 0. 05, back up, back down. It’s cur­rent­ly at 6. 20 today, so it has­n’t recov­ered all of where it was at. But, um, and I don’t remem­ber what I bought it for. Let me see. Nah, I don’t want to go back. It just hurts too much. Don’t want to go back and look, but I am going back and look. I bought it at 6. 22 and 6. 41 in a cou­ple of dif­fer­ent trench­es. So, um, I prob­a­bly, what did I say it is? 5 what? 6. 27. I still would have held it if it had­n’t have tanked. So, um, what the hell hap­pened? They did take a hit, right? They did, their results did. The rumours were right. They did, I think it was 33 per­cent or some­thing.

[00:05:17] Tony: I’m going to read from a cou­ple of, um, from an arti­cle on The Fin about it, and then a research paper from Ord Min­nett, which LXA sent through. Uh, this is from The Fin. Bank of Queens­land flags prof­it pres­sures after earn­ings sur­prise. This was last week. Bank of Queens­land shares surged on their best day on the share mar­ket in almost 18 months after the region­al lender beat half year earn­ings fore­casts, despite Chief Exec­u­tive Patrick All­away warn­ing that it could still fall short of a key turn­around tar­get.

[00:05:48] Tony: Ral­ly­ing against an unfair play­ing field that stopped region­al lenders from seri­ous­ly com­pet­ing with big­ger banks, Mr. Alloway said prof­it pres­sure at BOQ meant the bank had to con­sid­er addi­tion­al ways to improve share­hold­er returns. We do not rec we do rec­og­nize that the chal­lenge is large. And if the cur­rent head­winds are struc­tur­al, we won’t be there, get there with the cur­rent path­way, he said.

[00:06:09] Tony: We are look­ing at mul­ti­ple oppor­tu­ni­ties to get to where we need to be. So he’s refer­ring to his inter­nal tar­gets. So basi­cal­ly, I think you’re right, Cam. And this is, you know, my ques­tion out of all this is where the f Frack is the ASX, because I know when Jen­ny received her board papers, and I know when the share price crashed, um, they’re pret­ty close togeth­er.

[00:06:30] Tony: Not say­ing Jen­ny did any­thing, but, you know, whether some­one pho­to­copied, was out there pho­to­copy­ing board. Agen­das, or crunch­ing num­bers for the board, or some­one dropped a board paper at the air­port, or what­ev­er. Um, it leaked, and only half the sto­ry leaked, because as Ord Min­nett has, um, put in their sum­ma­ry after the results went out, um, about Bank of Queens­land, statu­to­ry NPAT was broad­ly in line with expec­ta­tions at 151 mil­lion, a sig­nif­i­cant increase on H123.

[00:07:04] Tony: Cash NPAT came in above con­sen­sus. which was 164. 8 mil­lion and the prof­it came in at 172 mil­lion. Uh, net inter­est income of 725 mil­lion decreased by 13 per­cent and was just below con­sen­sus by 5 mil­lion. But the, I think prob­a­bly the biggest thing that I took out of, uh, the results was loan impair­ment expense of 15 mil­lion decreased 56 per­cent on the first half, equat­ing to four basis points to gross loans and advances.

[00:07:34] Tony: The decrease was pri­mar­i­ly due to low­er col­lec­tive pro­vi­sion expense. That’s a big one for me because I know bank­ing ana­lysts focus on what’s called the jaws of income. So the dif­fer­ence between the cost of bor­row­ing and run­ning the bank and what they can charge for mort­gages. Um, and Bank of Queens­land’s costs have increased dra­mat­i­cal­ly this half, large­ly because they’re try­ing to reme­di­ate, um, issues that, uh, I think APRA, the reg­u­la­tor, have raised about gov­er­nance and anti mon­ey laun­der­ing and that kind of thing.

[00:08:07] Tony: And, but also an invest­ment in tech­nol­o­gy to get their costs down longer term. So the costs are up and the jaws are low­er than what they, what they, what the oth­er banks have, they, they, that they’re com­pared to. But It’s, I think the key indi­ca­tor when look­ing at banks is their loan impair­ment expense. And the fact that they’ve writ­ten that down is actu­al­ly a good thing.

[00:08:28] Tony: And for me, that’s always been a trig­ger, uh, in terms of when do I want to own banks? It’s when they’re reduc­ing their impair­ments for bad debts on their mort­gage books rather than increas­ing it. So I’m just going to call that out as some­thing to watch. But, um, I think that’s why the share price jumped and it’s been sort of fluc­tu­at­ing around a bit because On the one hand, Bank of Queens­land beat the con­sen­sus fore­cast.

[00:08:51] Tony: And on the oth­er hand, it was a bad results, um, com­pared to last half. So that’s where it’s at. Hav­ing said that, I thought the bad news was already baked into the price. So I real­ly think this gyra­tion has been because of a leak. Those fig­ures got out into the mar­ket some­how.

[00:09:13] Cameron: If it was the, an alleged leak of the results that caused the mar­ket to crash, But when the results came out, the mar­ket thought it was actu­al­ly not too bad and the price shot back up.

[00:09:25] Tony: Cor­rect. So the leak only got half the sto­ry.

[00:09:29] Cameron: yeah, right. By the way, I

[00:09:31] Tony: Sor­ry, the alleged, you’re right. I should call it the alleged leak. I’ve got no evi­dence at all to sug­gest a leak oth­er than cir­cum­stan­tial evi­dence.

[00:09:38] Cameron: pret­ty big evi­dence. Um, you remind me of Trump’s defense attor­ney in his open­ing speech this week. Was, let me, let me tell you the truth about influ­enc­ing elec­tions. It’s called democ­ra­cy.

[00:09:53] Tony: I thought the open­ing argu­ment was, Mr. Trump, wake up.

[00:09:57] Cameron: Ha ha ha, stop fart­ing. Appar­ent­ly he’s sleep­ing and fart­ing. Um, I sold it, I sold it, uh,

[00:10:05] Tony: blow his toupee off.

[00:10:07] Cameron: David Simon, the writer of The Wire, said, Well, when his mouth is, when his mouth is forced to be closed, the shit needs to come out of one end or the oth­er. Some­thing to that effect. I sold Bank of Queens­land all three parcels as a three point trend­line, uh, sell.

[00:10:22] Cameron: Not as a real one. 6. 08. Was the 3PTL sell fig­ure. So, you know, it’s back way back above that now. It should have nev­er gone down there. So it’s just real­ly dis­ap­point­ing. And yeah, I, I, I want, I want heads to roll. Tony, not nec­es­sar­i­ly Jen­ny’s, but, uh, make sure she’s on that for me. Tell her I want heads to roll.

[00:10:45] Tony: I will. I’ll tell her

[00:10:47] Cameron: Heads on spikes. Yeah. Like.

[00:10:49] Tony: I want to hitch the roll at the ASX. Who the frack is look­ing after this stuff?

[00:10:53] Cameron: Yeah. I don’t know.

[00:10:55] Tony: There’s insane price, insane price move­ment just before results are announced, come on.

[00:11:00] Cameron: Yeah. As far as you know, has any ques­tions been asked?

[00:11:04] Tony: No.

[00:11:05] Cameron: Is there a Please explain com­ing out of, uh, them at all?

[00:11:09] Tony: Nope. So the ASX clear­ly has their work cut out for them on a whole range of issues. The um, chest replace­ment sys­tem being num­ber one, but also num­ber two I think is new list­ings, and num­ber three is they’re not doing their job when it comes to mak­ing sure that the mar­ket is well reg­u­lat­ed. Alleged­ly. Actu­al­ly if the ASX wants to come on and defend them­selves, I’m hap­py to have that, but it’s get­ting, it’s almost get­ting far­ci­cal now.

[00:11:36] Cameron: I don’t believe those fig­ures. Please explain. There you go.

[00:11:41] Tony: Yeah, thank you. Oh, you’ve just remind­ed me of Pauline Han­son.

[00:11:46] Cameron: Don­ald Trump. Pauline Hansen. Rolling out all the big guns. Well. Uh, in bet­ter news, Tony, uh, well, the port­fo­lios, my super’s tak­en anoth­er hit this week, like, um, last cou­ple of weeks. I got two stocks that I bought in Feb­ru­ary that are both near­ly rule ones for me and my super. Gen­er­al­ly, though, I did a port­fo­lio analy­sis yes­ter­day and today for the light and the dum­my port­fo­lio.

[00:12:09] Cameron: They’re all doing pret­ty well, actu­al­ly. Sur­pris­ing­ly, we’ve had a good cou­ple of weeks, most of our port­fo­lios. But one of the things that I noticed this morn­ing, Well, I’m pret­ty sure you’ve said stuff to this effect over the past, but, um, KSC, I noticed some­thing real­ly par­tic­u­lar with KSC, K& S Cor­po­ra­tion, added it to the dum­my port­fo­lio in August 2021, um, price was 1.

[00:12:40] Cameron: 60. Um, I bought about 1, 700 shares for the 700, the par­cel at the time. The 1. 60, it’s now trad­ing at just shy of 3, 2. 98. So, um, share prices gone up con­sid­er­ably over that time, but the div­i­dends, we’ve got 1, 000 in div­i­dends over that time, 984 in div­i­dends.

[00:13:08] Tony: Wow.

[00:13:10] Cameron: Um, so it’s paid for near­ly. Not quite half, but you know, 40 per­cent of the

[00:13:16] Tony: Mm hmm. Mm

[00:13:17] Cameron: trade just in div­i­dends, let alone the near­ly 100 per­cent increase in the share price over that peri­od of time.

[00:13:26] Cameron: As well, and I just, you know, get­ting back to this idea of buy­ing and just hold­ing, not, uh, re bal­anc­ing because a share’s done well or what­ev­er. You know, it’s, uh, just look­ing at the amount of div­i­dends that it’s

[00:13:41] Tony: Mm hmm.

[00:13:41] Cameron: over that peri­od of time. I was like, wow, that’s, you know, if we hold it for anoth­er cou­ple of years, it basi­cal­ly pays for itself.

[00:13:49] Tony: Yeah.

[00:13:50] Cameron: from the div­i­dends, let alone from the cap­i­tal appre­ci­a­tion. of the shares. Like that’s, um, I had­n’t real­ly seen that hap­pen in the port­fo­lio before.

[00:13:59] Tony: No, I’ve def­i­nite­ly seen it hap­pen over the years. It’s a good thing to have. And you’re right. The longer you hold the stock, the more the div­i­dends, you know, go up. Mat­ter. But it is, it is unusu­al to see a stock both have strong growth and high div­i­dends. It’s nor­mal­ly one or the oth­er in the share mar­ket.

[00:14:16] Tony: So like my expe­ri­ence is I’ve held stocks that have gone up, you know, maybe 10 times and there­fore the div­i­dends become sig­nif­i­cant because they’re still yield­ing it, what­ev­er they were yield­ing it when they first, when I first bought them, you know, 3 per­cent or 4 per­cent or what­ev­er. Yeah. But I, but it’s unusu­al to see a stock that has that much cap­i­tal growth and a great div­i­dend yield as well.

[00:14:35] Cameron: Well, the share price in, uh, a month ago was actu­al­ly 3. 85. It’s dropped from that down to 3, uh, in the last cou­ple of weeks. I don’t know why. I don’t know if it’s just the mar­ket or peo­ple have been, uh, tak­ing their prof­its and get­ting out when the mar­ket’s been dicey or, or if it’s some­thing to do with the busi­ness.

[00:14:56] Cameron: But any­way, yeah, it’s just real­ly always, always just. I’m just, um, going through some of the div­i­dends recent­ly in a port­fo­lio and that real­ly jumped out at me. I mean, we’ve got a lot of stocks that we’ve held for a long time now in the dum­my port­fo­lio and that have deliv­ered a lot of div­i­dends, but noth­ing quite at that lev­el.

[00:15:12] Cameron: So, that was an eye open­er for me. I want to talk about, uh, regres­sion test­ing, Tony.

[00:15:19] Tony: Excel­lent.

[00:15:20] Cameron: Um, yeah, so, Matt Walk­er, Matt Walk­er’s, uh, sys­tem, which, you know, he’s still work­ing on tight­en­ing it up, but it is what it is. And I’ve been using the same basic sys­tem just to test a whole bunch of points to see what they deliv­er.

[00:15:40] Cameron: And he’s actu­al­ly going to come on the show next week and chat to us. Indeed, he’s going to be a guest on the show, which will be great. Which would be great. But here’s what I’ve done in the last, uh, cou­ple of days. So, um, just iso­lat­ing check­list met­rics for some of them. I iso­lat­ed yield is greater than bank debt.

[00:16:00] Cameron: It returned about a 0. 045, uh, or 4. 5 per­cent CAGR, right? Um, record low PE returned about 11 per­cent CAGR, iso­lat­ed, increas­ing equi­ty. That’s 6%. Now, you’ll like this one, QAV scores 0. 2,

[00:16:26] Tony: Mm hmm.

[00:16:28] Cameron: 9 per­cent CAGR.

[00:16:30] Tony: Okay. That’s inter­est­ing.

[00:16:33] Cameron: Now again, this is com­ing off the, uh, I think the, the STW over this peri­od we said was about a 2 per­cent

[00:16:39] Tony: Mm hmm.

[00:16:40] Cameron: over this time frame, which is 2006 to, to, uh, begin­ning of 2006 to the end of 2023.

[00:16:47] Cameron: So that actu­al­ly is My sec­ond best result, nar­row­ly beat­en by the 20 per­cent rule 1, also at 14. 917, this is 14. 913.

[00:17:04] Tony: Right.

[00:17:05] Cameron: QAV score 0. 05, reduc­ing the QAV score cut off, was 13. 8 per­cent CAGR. Eh,

[00:17:17] Tony: inter­est­ing. So it’s not pay­ing a big dif­fer­ence in the result then, is it?

[00:17:23] Cameron: not

[00:17:23] Tony: One, 1 per­cent to 2%. CAGR.

[00:17:25] Cameron: Yeah. I mean, it’s 40, 000 or 35, 000 dif­fer­ent cap­i­tal return over that peri­od of time with a 20, 000 start­ing point. So, you know, it’s a lot of mon­ey. But, um, in terms of the CAGR, not mas­sive. Then I did QAV score of 0. 2. With a 20 per­cent Rule 1, think­ing well that’s gonna shoot the lights out, that com­bo,

[00:17:50] Tony: Mm hmm.

[00:17:51] Cameron: 13.

[00:17:52] Cameron: 88%, 13. 9 per­cent rough­ly.

[00:17:55] Tony: Wow.

[00:17:57] Cameron: Um, Growth over PE iso­lat­ed, uh, 8%, Price less than book, 14. 48 per­cent CAGR.

[00:18:08] Tony: So that’s the best return­ing met­ric.

[00:18:10] Cameron: Um,

[00:18:12] Tony: Indi­vid­ual. You’ve got the oth­er ones, like you got rule one at 20%. Up there as well. So out of all,

[00:18:19] Cameron: health trend, just finan­cial health trend deliv­ered, uh, 14. 6.

[00:18:25] Tony: oh, okay.

[00:18:27] Cameron: Yeah, so that and price less than book, doing bet­ter than Prop­Caf, Prop­Caf was 11 and a half. Um, so,

[00:18:38] Tony: And you’ve only

[00:18:39] Cameron: I did,

[00:18:40] Tony: at sev­en though, haven’t you?

[00:18:43] Cameron: yes, yeah, yeah, yeah, I can’t twid­dle the Prop­Caf things yet, eas­i­ly in the code that Mat­t’s set up. But I thought, okay, QAV score 2

[00:18:54] Tony: Hmm.

[00:18:55] Cameron: good, what about 3?

[00:18:57] Tony: Yep. What about it?

[00:19:00] Cameron: 9. 2%.

[00:19:02] Tony: Real­ly?

[00:19:04] Cameron: Yeah, so,

[00:19:06] Tony: Do you have a lim­it on, are you tak­ing every stock into account or do you have a min­i­mum ADT you’re look­ing for?

[00:19:13] Cameron: no, no min­i­mum ADT, I don’t think,

[00:19:16] Tony: Okay. Cause I would think of the QAV score of 0. 3. You’re def­i­nite­ly at the top of the buy list, but you might have lots of small com­pa­nies in there as well.

[00:19:25] Cameron: which, you know, should be good, yeah,

[00:19:28] Tony: Yeah. But that may not be real­is­tic. Just the point I’m mak­ing.

[00:19:32] Cameron: oh, I see what you’re, yeah, we’re right. The last one that I did was PE greater than yield, which returned, uh, 4%.

[00:19:39] Tony: Okay.

[00:19:40] Cameron: So, uh, let me do my Let­ter­man top 10. Um, and num­ber 1 at 14. 9176939 is 20 per­cent rule 1, fol­lowed by QAV score 0. 2 at 14. 9131, finan­cial health trend 14.

[00:20:00] Cameron: 6, price less than book 14. 48, no rule 1, 14. 42. QAV 0. 2, 20 per­cent rule 1, score 86, book plus 30, 13, price less than fore­cast, 13, finan­cial health, just its rat­ing, um, 12. 94. 10 per­cent rule one, 12. 8. That’s just our stan­dard, um, stan­dard set of rules, right? Stan­dard con­fig, 12. 8. 3PTL alone, 12%. I think that’s rough­ly 10.

[00:20:45] Cameron: So they’re my top 10, um, regres­sion tri­als to date.

[00:20:51] Tony: So can I just under­stand that and drill down a bit? So QAV, as we cur­rent­ly know it, returned 12. 8%. Is that right? Okay, so then, uh, there was like 6 or so of things above 12. 8. So 12. 8 has got to be the base case, right?

[00:21:12] Cameron: Yeah,

[00:21:13] Tony: So the improve­ments on that were, uh, what’d you say? That was, uh, 20% rule one. Uh, QAV score of 0.2. What else was there?

[00:21:27] Cameron: Health Trend, Price Less Than Book, No Rule 1, QAV. 2 plus a 20 per­cent Rule 1, QAV Score 0. 05, Book Plus 30, Price Less Than Fore­cast, and Finan­cial Health Rat­ing.

[00:21:49] Tony: So is it pos­si­ble to do a regres­sion test with all of those met­rics you just read out, giv­en like a score of two or three and just see if, if that boosts the returns.

[00:22:00] Cameron: A score of 2 or 3 or just the reg­u­lar scor­ing for each of those?

[00:22:04] Tony: No, I want to boost the scor­ing for those things you spoke about. QAV, or actu­al­ly, so 20 per­cent rule one, QAV of 0. 2, but book plus 30 get­ting an increase in the score and price less than fore­cast get­ting an increase in score and finan­cial health get­ting an increase in score.

[00:22:19] Cameron: Right, uh,

[00:22:20] Tony: Because we’re try­ing to beat 12. 8, which is the cur­rent scor­ing set­up.

[00:22:24] Cameron: Yeah,

[00:22:25] Tony: And then I guess also too, if some of the things that you said did­n’t score well, just start elim­i­nat­ing them and see if we even need to track them going for­ward. See if we can sim­pli­fy the check­list.

[00:22:36] Cameron: so what you’re sug­gest­ing with the increas­ing score ones is keep every­thing else in it, as we nor­mal­ly do, just increase the score for those things.

[00:22:46] Tony: Yeah. So, um, book plus 30, for exam­ple, gets what­ev­er it is now. I think it’s a 1. Give it a 2. And it’s hard to know what the score should be from that. You know, you give it a 5 maybe. Real­ly boost the score on it and see if it makes a dif­fer­ence.

[00:23:05] Cameron: You want me to do it while we do the rest of the show and then give you the results by the end of the show?

[00:23:08] Tony: Oh yeah, cool. Okay.

[00:23:10] Cameron: Ha ha ha! Hold on, let me do this. Um, do do do do do do, might as well.

[00:23:20] Tony: And only our club mem­bers will get the results because we cut the show off after 30 min­utes for the free episode.

[00:23:26] Cameron: Yeah, and no one else cares,

[00:23:28] Tony: No, exact­ly.

[00:23:29] Cameron: it.

[00:23:30] Tony: Well, do you want me to talk about one of my news arti­cles while you’re doing that?

[00:23:33] Cameron: Yes. Oh, uh, no, before you do that, I just want­ed to, uh, peo­ple prob­a­bly already know, but just in case peo­ple haven’t read the email or seen the Face­book post or what­ev­er this week, major issues with Stock Doc­tor data this week. Um, I noticed on our buy list that the top three stocks, which all had. Crazy good QAV scores, R.

[00:23:54] Cameron: E. D., J. A. N., and F. L. T., and all of which I’d nev­er seen before on the buy list. Uh, um, I thought, hmm, I was about to buy red, actu­al­ly, for one of our port­fo­lios. I was like, maybe I should just, uh, you know, You know, maybe I should have learned from past expe­ri­ences that if some­thing looks too good to be true, maybe it is.

[00:24:14] Cameron: And because some, uh, of our lis­ten­ers have point­ed out in recent times that, uh, Stock Doc­tor’s had a his­to­ry with shares out­stand­ing, which has, uh, uh, rap mas­sive­ly inflat­ed the QAV score of some stocks. Like I think URW was one. Um. That was the first place I looked and they all had dodgy look­ing num­bers.

[00:24:36] Cameron: And then you noticed there were oth­er dodgy look­ing num­bers

[00:24:39] Tony: Mm hmm.

[00:24:39] Cameron: Stock Doc­tor came back to me and said, they’ve got NA for finan­cial health for a lot of things for some rea­son this week. So, uh, just be real­ly care­ful with your Stock Doc­tor check­list this week. Um, a lot of data, um, integri­ty issues and, um, yeah, don’t, don’t trust any­thing essen­tial­ly.

[00:24:58] Tony: Yeah, no, I found it. I was prepar­ing to do a pulled pork, and I used the week­ly down­load, and I went, no, there’s a lot miss­ing on this. And I ran anoth­er one this morn­ing, and at least for the com­pa­ny I was look­ing at, a lot of it had been fixed. So it might be worth it if peo­ple need to buy some­thing this week to run a down­load and just see if the data looks right.

[00:25:16] Tony: Yeah, but when I did my down­load today, There was still Flight Cen­tre and RED and the oth­er one on top of the list, so there’s still an issue with those. And I would­n’t expect to see Flight Cen­tre on our list, quite frankly. It’s always been a gross stock in peo­ple’s eyes.

[00:25:35] Cameron: Yeah.

[00:25:36] Tony: Right­ly or wrong­ly, but it always has.

[00:25:39] Cameron: I’m going to go run a, go run a regres­sion test. You can talk for a bit.

[00:25:44] Tony: Is that going to like use up all the pow­er sup­ply in North Bris­bane?

[00:25:47] Cameron: Yeah. Yeah. Lights will flick­er. Yeah. All over pow­er will be going out, all over town. Yeah,

[00:25:54] Tony: the gen­er­a­tor that you the

[00:25:56] Cameron: yeah, yeah.

[00:26:00] Tony: Okay. I got two sto­ries, um, for QAV stocks in the news this week. I have, uh, one which sup­ports the curse of the pulled pork the­o­ry. Which was on Karoon Ener­gy, um, which I did a Pulled Pork on recent­ly. And what’s hap­pened with Karoon is, this was pub­lished by Stock Doc­tor with a real­ly neat head­ing called Who Dat, Who Did This?

[00:26:24] Tony: Because Karoon owns a cou­ple of Fields called HUDAT. Um, this came out 19th of April, lat­est key update, Brazil­ian oil pro­duc­er Carun Ener­gy released its third quar­ter 24 pro­duc­tion update. The results fell short of con­sen­sus expec­ta­tions and the com­pa­ny has dis­ap­point­ing­ly down­grad­ed its FY24 guid­ance due to tem­po­rary oper­a­tional chal­lenges at Bal­lu­na and HUDAT fields.

[00:26:49] Tony: So the shares have gone down a lit­tle bit since we did the pulled pork. I did a quick look at the com­pa­ny announce­ment itself, and I think the empha­sis is on the word tem­po­rary. They weren’t call­ing out any sort of, well I could­n’t see they were call­ing out any sort of long term prob­lems with both fields, but it looked like the prob­lem was with what’s known in the indus­try as an FPSO, so a Float­ing Pro­duc­tion Stor­age and Offload­ing Facil­i­ty, which is Um, in the oil indus­try is like a, an ex oil tanker that acts as an inter­me­di­ate load­ing point near an off sea oil well and stores the oil and gas and I guess water that comes up in the well and tries to do an ini­tial split of those.

[00:27:31] Tony: Some­times it does­n’t, it just stores things. But any­way, it means that the The oil drill does­n’t have to invest in hav­ing a pipeline back to shore. So this kind of old oil tanker sits there, takes the oil that’s drilled and then loads it into tankers to send off to the refiner­ies. They had a prob­lem with their FPSO, which was shut down for a bit this quar­ter and it looks like it’ll be shut down again next quar­ter when they’re doing the fore­cast main­te­nance on it.

[00:28:00] Tony: So this may be a prob­lem again next quar­ter, but it looks like That’s the update on Karun.

[00:28:09] Cameron: I had to sell them. I had to sell Karoon, rule one sell, in a cou­ple of our port­fo­lios, includ­ing the dum­my port­fo­lio. I’ve had to sell, like, a cou­ple of things out of the dum­my port­fo­lio recent­ly. Had­n’t had to sell any­thing in the dum­my port­fo­lio for ages. Cho­rus, uh, Karoon, and just this morn­ing CLX, CTI Logis­tics.

[00:28:32] Cameron: Sur­pris­ing. Usu­al­ly the dum­my port­fo­lio is immune from those sorts of things, but, uh, there you go, not to be.

[00:28:40] Tony: Yeah, so, um, I think for what my two cents are worth, I think it’s a tem­po­rary prob­lem with Karun, but it may last for six months. I guess it’s your def­i­n­i­tion of tem­po­rary is impor­tant here. And then the oth­er stock, which is a good news sto­ry, um, is both for MacMa­hon, MAH, and Decmil. Uh, I’m not sure if Decmil’s been on the buy list for a while.

[00:29:02] Tony: I know I did own it many, many years ago, per­haps even decades ago, so I’m not sure if it’s been on the buy list late­ly. I owned Decmil back when it made its name build­ing accom­mo­da­tion for fly in, fly out. min­ers in camps and then it kind of had a exis­ten­tial threat when all that ini­tial devel­op­ment was fin­ished and there weren’t that many new camps to build and it kind of moved into oth­er min­ing engi­neer­ing sup­port ser­vices and it’s kind of limped along a bit from there.

[00:29:35] Tony: It has had some suc­cess in build­ing wind farms, I think. I haven’t real­ly fol­lowed it. Any­way, the sto­ry is that MacMa­hon have, uh, Uh, lobbed a share, uh, takeover, and Decmil’s board has blessed the scheme bid by min­ing ser­vices group MacMa­hon Hold­ings, which will swal­low the Perth based engi­neer­ing group at 0.

[00:29:55] Tony: 30 a share. A rise in demand for wind farms has buoyed Decmil Group. The buy­out announced on Tues­day morn­ing will see 528 mil­lion dol­lar MacMa­hon acquire 100 per­cent of Decmil’s share cap­i­tal via a scheme of arrange­ment. Fund­ed from exist­ing cash reserves. and an exten­sion of its exist­ing debt facil­i­ties.

[00:30:14] Tony: Major share­hold­ers Thor­ney Invest­ment Group and Haw­ley Pty Ltd, which togeth­er con­trol almost 27 per­cent of the reg­is­ter, have giv­en their sup­port. With Decmil shares trad­ing, last trad­ing at 17 cents, the MacMa­hon offer rep­re­sents a 76. 5 per­cent pre­mi­um. The 26 mil­lion mar­ket cap com­pa­ny builds a broad range of infra­struc­ture projects, includ­ing roads, rail net­works, and wind farms.

[00:30:38] Tony: So there you go. A big spike in its share price and MacMa­hon I think is, may even still be on the buy list as tak­ing it over. But it looks like they’re not going to do a cap­i­tal raise to do it.

[00:30:51] Cameron: I just bought some MacMa­hon today, but it’s the thing I replaced CLX with in the dum­my port­fo­lio. So, uh, it’s gone up 3 per­cent since I bought it this morn­ing too. I just checked. I was like, oh no, cause I missed that news. I did­n’t, must’ve checked the, um, what­ev­er’s, the announce­ments.

[00:31:09] Tony: Yeah, well it’s inter­est­ing because often­times the acquir­ing com­pa­ny goes down when they buy some­thing until they can prove the syn­er­gies all work and, and the trans­ac­tion goes through. But um, sounds like it’s not hap­pen­ing that way for MacMa­hon. So that’s good.

[00:31:21] Cameron: Yeah. Any­way. Oh, that’s good. That’s it?

[00:31:25] Tony: That’s it for my news, I’ve got a pool of pork to do, but did you have any­thing else to talk about before­hand?

[00:31:30] Cameron: No, I did not. Um,

[00:31:34] Tony: Noth­ing from Howard Marks this week?

[00:31:37] Cameron: Oh, I did. Thank you for remind­ing me. I skipped right over Howard Marks. Marksy, good old Marksy. Um, Oak­tree Cap­i­tal founder had his, uh, one of his lat­est blurbs came out, mem­os from Howard Marks, April 17th, 2024, the indis­pens­abil­i­ty of risk. I read this and I thought of you.

[00:32:01] Cameron: Because you’ve said to me in the past, well, no, you’ve said before, you know, you don’t mind risk. You don’t mind volatil­i­ty. You know, that’s part of being an investor, right? Is you, you, you, you, you try and min­i­mize your risk, but you walk into the risk. You know, you, you, you know, you, you have to accept that

[00:32:18] Tony: You don’t walk away from risk. Yeah.

[00:32:20] Cameron: he used a chess anal­o­gy, uh, today, which caught, now I know, That you, like myself and my sons, have been fol­low­ing very close­ly this week, the Can­di­dates Chess Tour­na­ment

[00:32:33] Tony: I must have blinked and missed

[00:32:34] Cameron: out this week. It was actu­al­ly quite excit­ing. It’s like, Tay­lor was tex­ting me yes­ter­day, holy shit, are you watch­ing this?

[00:32:43] Cameron: I was like, I was try­ing to con­cen­trate and I was flick­ing, I had to keep mut­ing it because, you know, the com­men­tary on chess games now is like, I don’t know, box­ing com­men­tary. They’re like,

[00:32:54] Tony: Oh, real­ly? Are you ready to rum­ble?

[00:33:00] Cameron: like that. So the can­di­dates tour­na­ment, uh, for peo­ple who don’t fol­low chess is, uh, sort of the, the world cham­pi­onship before the world cham­pi­onship. It’s the, it’s to see who’s going to play the world champ, who at the moment is Ding Loren from Chi­na. Although every­one knows it’s real­ly Mag­nus retired.

[00:33:18] Cameron: So it’s Ding Loren and it was down to, there was two games play­ing, I guess the last two semi­fi­nals. And the way the points had been scored is, um, some­body need­ed a win in order to get enough points to end up play­ing, uh, play­ing Ding. And the first game that played was between this 17 year old Indi­an kid called Gukesh, who was the sec­ond youngest Grand­mas­ter ever in his­to­ry when he got his career.

[00:33:47] Cameron: title at 12 and a half.

[00:33:49] Tony: Oh, wow.

[00:33:51] Cameron: Um, there’s anoth­er kid who’s was like a month younger than him, anoth­er Indi­an kid who got his grand­mas­ter last year. Um, and he was play­ing, um, Hikaru Naka­mu­ra. Who is prob­a­bly the biggest chess YouTu­ber, Twitch stream­er on the plan­et, Japan­ese Amer­i­can. Um, very He’s the world cham­pi­on Blitz play­er, so like, 3 minute games.

[00:34:14] Cameron: He’s an absolute boss at that. Don’t often see him play­ing at this lev­el in stan­dard Time Con­trols, but it was between the two of them and that fin­ished first and they drew and we were like, Oh, Gukesh isn’t going to win because the oth­er game that was being played by Nepo, Russ­ian, Ian Nepom­ni­achtchi, who has played in the last two world cham­pi­onships, first against Mag­nus, which he lost, and then against Ding, which he lost last year.

[00:34:40] Cameron: And, um, Fabio Caru­a­na, Amer­i­can, um, we were watch­ing that, but they drew, which meant. Gukesh, at 9 points, even though he got a draw, is the win­ner. So, the World Cham­pi­onship this year will be between a 17 year old Indi­an kid And a 31 year old Chi­nese guy, the two biggest pop­u­lat­ed coun­tries in the world fight­ing it out, which has nev­er hap­pened before.

[00:35:08] Cameron: Um, it’s pret­ty excit­ing. India ver­sus Chi­na. It’s like this new era of chess.

[00:35:13] Tony: Yeah. Mod­ern Cold War.

[00:35:15] Cameron: yeah. Right. Um, I mean, Chi­na’s had some great play­ers for years, and so has India, uh, includ­ing a world cham­pi­on, I think, but, um, or a con­tender for world cham­pi­on, at least at some point, um, but, yeah, this is real­ly excit­ing, you know, it’s, um, uh, uh, big thing.

[00:35:33] Cameron: So any­way, back to that one, Marks.

[00:35:35] Tony: I, I, I mean, our lis­ten­ers would nev­er for­give me if I did­n’t men­tion the, um, anal beads. Has that been a part of the World Cham­pi­onships this year? I

[00:35:44] Cameron: No, but, that guy, Hans Nie­mann,

[00:35:48] Tony: I won­der if Trump has anal beads in his, in his, uh, ear­ring.

[00:35:53] Cameron: that guy, Hans Nie­mann, Um, Tay­lor’s been talk­ing to him, uh, Tay­lor con­nect­ed with him on Snapchat or Insta­gram or some­thing and they’ve been hav­ing a bit of a back­wards and for­wards chat over the last cou­ple of months. Tay­lor’s deter­mined to take him on as a client. Tay­lor wants to

[00:36:12] Tony: Right. Yeah.

[00:36:13] Cameron: Hans Nie­mann.

[00:36:14] Cameron: And if he does that, he’s going to total­ly try and con­vince him to sell his own range of

[00:36:18] Tony: Yeah.

[00:36:19] Cameron: He’s like, dude, yeah, like you’re miss­ing out on this incred­i­ble oppor­tu­ni­ty. Like you don’t fight it. You embrace it. You, you own it. Yeah, own it! Like, you can sell mil­lions of anal beads, vibrat­ing anal beads.

[00:36:34] Cameron: Oh, Tay­lor’s like, dude, you won’t have to wor­ry about chess. You’ll be so rich. Be like, we were talk­ing off air about Ryan Reynolds and his mobile phone com­pa­ny and his gin com­pa­ny and the soc­cer team and all that kind of stuff. Any­way, back

[00:36:48] Tony: told me a great sto­ry about Snapchat. I’m sure you won’t mind me telling it here. You may have heard it. He came, we caught up for, um, Brunch a cou­ple of weeks ago when he was in Syd­ney last and it was real­ly nice catch­ing up with him. Um, but he is telling a sto­ry about how he took his influ­encers, he’s got a sta­ble of influ­encers he man­ages, and they went to one of the winer­ies in north­ern Vic­to­ria, um, for a Snapchat.

[00:37:12] Tony: Mar­ket­ing con­fer­ence. Yeah. And when it start­ed, the Snapchat man­ag­er asked every­one in the room to sit down in a drum cir­cle and go around the room and, and men­tion two things. First­ly, what pro­nouns they like. And sec­ond­ly, one thing they’re grate­ful for. And it got to Tay­lor’s influ­encer. And one of them said, well, the pro­noun I like is me, and I’m grate­ful for women.

[00:37:38] Cameron: Yeah. He’s, he’s decades got, that’s Adam. He’s got 20 mil­lion fol­low­ers on Tik­Tok and most of them are him going up and chat­ting, chat­ting women up in front of the street when they’re with their boyfriend and hit­ting on women. He’s like the hit­ting on women guy. That’s his, uh, that’s his brand. Um, uh, I was going to tell you that Tay­lor just had his one year anniver­sary with, um, his girl­friend, Amy, who lives in LA.

[00:38:05] Cameron: She’s an actress. And, um, for the last like six months, he’s been try­ing to con­vince her that when she does an audi­tion, she should send the cast­ing direc­tor after­wards, a mari­achi band with a thank you note, just to go to their office and do a song. And she’s like, you’re insane. That is the worst idea ever.

[00:38:27] Cameron: So for their anniver­sary,

[00:38:29] Tony: No, I think,

[00:38:30] Cameron: one

[00:38:30] Tony: I think the Chess Mas­ter’s Anal beads is the worst idea ever.

[00:38:35] Cameron: sec­ond worst idea ever. So for the, for their anniver­sary, he got one of her best friends. To take her out of the house down, she lives in an apart­ment com­plex, to go out to like a restau­rant. Um, and then he had a mari­achi band turn up and play to her for 30 min­utes as they’re walk­ing around the streets in this shop­ping mall, just this mari­achi band.

[00:39:03] Cameron: Which I thought

[00:39:06] Tony: have, I would have offered them dou­ble to stop fol­low­ing me around for 30 min­utes.

[00:39:10] Cameron: Yeah, yeah. He’s a fun­ny dude. Any­way, Howard Marks, I’m gonna get to this if it kills me. The indis­pens­abil­i­ty of risk. Often times, we’re best able to under­stand some­thing we’re inter­est­ed in through analo­gies that clar­i­fy the mat­ter by estab­lish­ing con­nec­tions between it and oth­er parts of life.

[00:39:29] Cameron: Tony Kynas­ton’s cof­fee shop anal­o­gy. all the dif­fer­ence to me. That’s why I’ve writ­ten a memo com­par­ing invest­ing to sports in each of the four decades I’ve been writ­ing mem­os and one con­nect­ing invest­ing and card play­ing in 2020. The moti­va­tion for this memo comes from an arti­cle in the Wall Street Jour­nal of April 12th that my part­ner, Bruce Karsh sent me.

[00:39:51] Cameron: Enti­tled Chess Teach­es the Pow­er of Sac­ri­fice by Mau­rice Ash­ley, a chess grand­mas­ter who’s been induct­ed into the U. S. Chess Hall of Fame. Few peo­ple know that Bruce is a chess play­er and I had­n’t thought about this fact for years, but the arti­cle pro­vid­ed a good reminder and moved me to As is obvi­ous from the arti­cle’s title, the piece is most­ly about the role of sac­ri­fice.

[00:40:13] Cameron: Ash­ley says, Many posi­tions can­not be won or saved with­out some­thing of val­ue being giv­en away, from a low­ly pawn all the way up to the mighty queen. Inten­tion­al­ly los­ing a piece as part of one’s game plan is the sac­ri­fice that Ash­ley is ref­er­enc­ing. He describes some sac­ri­fices as shams, A term coined by chess mas­ter Rudolf Spiel­mann in his book, The Art of Sac­ri­fice in Chess, where, quote, one can eas­i­ly see that the piece being giv­en up will return con­crete ben­e­fits that can be clear­ly cal­cu­lat­ed.

[00:40:48] Cameron: Oth­ers are deemed real sac­ri­fices, where, quote, giv­ing away a piece offers gains that are nei­ther imme­di­ate nor tan­gi­ble. The return on invest­ment might be con­trol­ling more space, cre­at­ing an assail­able weak­ness in the oppo­nen­t’s posi­tion, or hav­ing more pieces in the crit­i­cal sec­tor of attack. The anal­o­gy to invest­ing begins to become clear.

[00:41:10] Cameron: Buy­ing a 10 year US Trea­sury note is a mod­est or sham sac­ri­fice. You give up the use of your mon­ey for 10 years, but that’s only an oppor­tu­ni­ty cost, and accept­ing it brings the cer­tain­ty of inter­est income. Most oth­er invest­ments involve real sac­ri­fices, though, where the risk of loss is born in pur­suit of gains that are nei­ther imme­di­ate nor tan­gi­ble.

[00:41:32] Cameron: And it goes on. Um, it’s a long arti­cle, I won’t read the whole thing, but, um, I’ll just read the end here. He quotes from this chess champ. Tak­ing a chance does­n’t mean there will be a suc­cess­ful out­come, nor does it require it. If the rea­sons are sound, the risk should be tak­en almost reflex­ive­ly. The more often we trust our judg­ment, the more con­fi­dence we gain in our deci­sion mak­ing capac­i­ty.

[00:41:58] Cameron: The courage to take risks becomes a worth­while end in itself. And then Howard fin­ish­es, The bot­tom line on the quest for supe­ri­or invest­ment returns is clear. You should­n’t expect to make mon­ey with­out bear­ing risk, but you should­n’t expect to make mon­ey just for tak­ing risk. You have to sac­ri­fice cer­tain­ty, but it has to be done skill­ful­ly and intel­li­gent­ly and with emo­tion under con­trol. I real­ly like that. I thought it was a real­ly good arti­cle.

[00:42:27] Tony: Yeah, no, I agree. And yeah, and I think the oth­er quote, which I could­n’t find, and I just had a quick look, but it said some­thing like that when we buy a share, we expect it to go up, but we also know that only about, um, 60 per­cent of the shares we buy Go up. So it’s how do you rec­on­cile that, which I think is, is the key to it.

[00:42:48] Tony: It’s like you need, you need to have a frame­work which tells you over the long term that works. You have, you’ve done your home­work, you’ve done your research, and you can trust in the process.

[00:43:00] Cameron: By the way, I tried to write some code last time. Week to ana­lyze all of the trades that I’ve done to see what our win loss ratio is. And I haven’t got it work, haven’t got it work­ing yet, but, um, it, it was some­thing I was think­ing about over the last cou­ple of weeks just to see if there was a way to see all of the trades that I’ve done in all the light port­fo­lios and the dum­my port­fo­lio over the last few years.

[00:43:24] Cameron: Um, what the win loss has been. Um, he does also quote. Oh, he men­tions Buf­fett and Munger here. He says, um, Here’s how I describe the basis for the suc­cess of Berk­shire Hath­away and few losers or more win­ners. I believe the ingre­di­ents of War­ren and Char­lie’s great per­for­mance are sim­ple. A. A lot of invest­ments in which they did decent­ly.

[00:43:48] Cameron: B. A rel­a­tive­ly small num­ber of big win­ners that they invest­ed in heav­i­ly and held for decades. And C. Rel­a­tive­ly few big losers. No one should expect to have, or expect their mon­ey man­agers to have, All big win­ners and no losers. Investors must accept that suc­cess is like­ly to stem from mak­ing a large num­ber of invest­ments, all of which you make because you expect them to suc­ceed, but some por­tion of which you know won’t.

[00:44:15] Tony: That was the quote I was look­ing for.

[00:44:17] Cameron: There you go.

[00:44:18] Tony: Yeah, which is that idea that, yeah, I’m going to buy a share, in the back of my mind I know it’s got a 60 40 chance of win­ning, so I’ve worked out the prob­a­bil­i­ties, but uh, when I buy it I expect it to, to improve. And that’s the risk, that’s the risk tak­ing in it.

[00:44:35] Cameron: And for me though, too, it’s like the, the long ter­mism of the strat­e­gy. You have to, you know, under­stand and accept and steel your­self for the fact that there are going to be peri­ods when things won’t go your way. They will look bad, like my super port­fo­lio for the last cou­ple of years. It’s been dis­mal per­for­mance, but I believe that the strat­e­gy works over the long term. My job is just to dili­gent­ly fol­low the sys­tem and not ques­tion it, you know,

[00:45:11] Tony: Yeah, and that’s anoth­er thing.

[00:45:12] Cameron: where we can, but you know.

[00:45:13] Tony: Yeah, that’s anoth­er thing about risk tak­ing, it’s always the long term you’ve got to be focused on as well. You may have a lot of, you might have a lot of stut­ters when you first start, but it’s the long term you’re focused on. And we’ve proven that with the dum­my port­fo­lio for the last five years, it’s near­ly, well it’s, I think it is dou­ble mar­ket.

[00:45:28] Tony: My expe­ri­ence over 25 to 30 years is dou­ble mar­ket. So yeah, I think it’s, but there have been peri­ods along the way when you have a bad year. For sure.

[00:45:40] Cameron: And the dum­my port­fo­lio, I mean, apart from trust­ing, uh, your expe­ri­ence when we start­ed, the dum­my port­fo­lio has proven to be With­out a doubt, even though, okay, it’s only five years in. So, you know, it’s not 20 years, but, um, even with that five years, just fol­low­ing the rules, it’s just one, like not just beat­ing the mar­ket, but dou­ble mar­ket.

[00:46:01] Cameron: Like that’s crazy, real­ly.

[00:46:06] Tony: Yeah, I think that’s, it is crazy. It’s, but it’s inter­est­ing how it has been repeat­ed in our two cas­es. Um, yeah, and it’s, you know, the oth­er risk I think, which was­n’t men­tioned in the arti­cle, but it’s the risk of get­ting it wrong, um, because there’s noth­ing worse than start­ing off in your invest­ing life, um, par­tic­u­lar­ly if you’re, you know, a late stage investor like both of us are, and 20 years down the track going, huh, I’ve actu­al­ly done a real­ly bad thing here.

[00:46:35] Tony: I should­n’t have. I should­n’t have used that, um, should­n’t have fol­lowed that advice, should­n’t have used that fund man­ag­er, should­n’t have put it in that super fund or what­ev­er, because you can’t wind it back and, and fix it. But, um, I think that’s the pow­er of hav­ing a sys­tem like ours, is that, you know, we’ve, it’s been worked for me, it’s, we start­ed it five years ago, it’s worked for the dum­my port­fo­lio.

[00:46:56] Tony: Um, there’s noth­ing which I’ve seen which will say it won’t con­tin­ue to work in the long term, you know, for peo­ple going for­ward too.

[00:47:04] Cameron: And the thing that guts me is just see­ing peo­ple that get a cou­ple of years into it and then just mar­ket has a. Bad peri­od and they pull out and sell, sell low. Yeah, man, why? We’ve, they’ve been lis­ten­ing to us talk for years about stick­ing in it for the long haul and let­ting the cycles play out and just for what­ev­er rea­son, can’t stom­ach it.

[00:47:28] Cameron: It’s, um, heart­break­ing, but any­way, that’s

[00:47:32] Tony: Which again is risk, which is how, which is man­ag­ing risk, isn’t it? And man­ag­ing your emo­tions. I like the fact that Howard Marks said that part of the way of man­ag­ing risk was to man­age your emo­tions.

[00:47:42] Cameron: Yes, of course, with emo­tion under con­trol.

[00:47:45] Tony: Yeah.

[00:47:46] Cameron: Any­way, I like that, not only for the chess aspect of it, but, you know, you’ve said to me over and over again over the years that risk and volatil­i­ty are your friend. They’re not, they’re not, they’re not your friend. The ene­my, right?

[00:47:59] Tony: Yeah. If the mar­ket was risk free, it would­n’t return much because why would you give it the mon­ey? Yeah.

[00:48:05] Cameron: Yeah. Yeah. That’s buy­ing a bond, right?

[00:48:08] Tony: But even then, like if you bought a bond a cou­ple of years ago, bonds have gone down. The yield­’s gone up, which means that the mon­ey you’ve invest­ed has gone down. So bonds aren’t risk free either. You’ve got to still stom­ach that. Yeah. But I mean, I guess the dis­til­la­tion of what Howard Marks is say­ing is that there’s risk in the mar­ket, but there’s risk in your­self.

[00:48:28] Tony: You’ve got to tame both risks. And I’ve always called them strate­gic risk and exe­cu­tion risk, right? So a num­ber of times I’ve seen that. You know, like just going to the race­track when, you know, if you go to the race­track and back the wrong horse, that could be strate­gic risk. But I’ve seen plen­ty of exam­ples where peo­ple have gone to the race­track and on the way out there, they’re real excit­ed about back­ing a horse.

[00:48:51] Tony: And when they get there, they change their mind and they back the los­ing horse and the orig­i­nal horse they picked wins. So there’s always strate­gic risk and oper­at­ing risk. And, you know, I guess anoth­er word for oper­at­ing risk is, is behav­ioral risk. It’s the risk of you doing some­thing sil­ly. It’s just as impor­tant as the risk of, of hav­ing the right strat­e­gy when you invest.

[00:49:12] Cameron: that’s, that’s Howard Marks. You want to do your pulled pork?

[00:49:17] Tony: Yeah, yeah, I do. So thanks to PC for a request for this one today. Um, I’m doing it on a com­pa­ny called Joyce, which has a code called JYC. And I’m not famil­iar with this com­pa­ny or their retail offer­ings. So it was, it was a bit of fun to go through and explore a new com­pa­ny. And I guess the rea­son why I haven’t come across them before is that they are a Perth based com­pa­ny.

[00:49:41] Tony: Um, they are expand­ing onto the East Coast in Queens­land and New South Wales, uh, and they oper­ate three busi­ness­es. They’re a retail group, uh, it’s bro­ken down basi­cal­ly into what’s called the KWB group and Bed­shed. So, KWB oper­ates Kitchen Con­nec­tions and Wallspan, which, um, I guess they’re, what they do is in the name, Kitchen Con­nec­tions, makes and sells kitchen ren­o­va­tions and Walspan, uh, man­u­fac­tures and sells wardrobe instal­la­tions.

[00:50:14] Tony: So that’s a large part of their busi­ness. And then Bed­shed, which I think may have been the old­est part of the, this com­pa­ny’s his­to­ry, is a bed­ding store. Um, Again, based in WA, but they have expand­ed to the east coast as well. They do have a third busi­ness, which is, um, just in its infan­cy. It’s called Crave, and it oper­ates, um, fur­ni­ture rentals and stag­ing, um, in the Perth area.

[00:50:43] Tony: It’s a small, it’s a very small part of their busi­ness, but I guess there’s syn­er­gy. If you’re sell­ing fur­ni­ture, you might have some spare stock you can rent out, but it’s, in my mind, the ques­tion is whether that will ever be a large part of their busi­ness, giv­en it’s, I think it turned over about half a mil­lion dol­lars in its first year of oper­a­tion.

[00:51:01] Tony: Um, Inter­est­ing split between those busi­ness­es. So the bed­shed fran­chise, sor­ry, the bed­shed busi­ness is both fran­chised and com­pa­ny oper­at­ed and the kitchen and wardrobe show­rooms, uh, is again split between those two. But on the bed­shed side, uh, the fran­chise oper­a­tions made a prof­it of 2. 7 mil­lion and the com­pa­ny oper­at­ed oper­a­tions, which was the larg­er part of the busi­ness made a prof­it Prof­it of 2.

[00:51:27] Tony: 3 mil­lion dol­lars. So that says to me there’s a bit of um, upside in the, in grow­ing the fran­chise busi­ness because uh, it’s mak­ing the same as the com­pa­ny oper­at­ed busi­ness. Um, and I’m, I’m not sure how bed­shed fran­chis­ing works. whether they own the store and put an oper­a­tor in it or not, but usu­al­ly fran­chis­ing has a cap­i­tal is less cap­i­tal inten­sive than own­ing and oper­at­ing your­self.

[00:51:52] Tony: But again, I’m not famil­iar with the oper­a­tions here. Uh, the kitchen and wardrobe show­rooms though, which I thought was inter­est­ing. This is the new­er part of the busi­ness, but that’s mak­ing 25 mil­lion in the last 12 months. So that’s where the prof­it is. So the tra­di­tion­al bet­ting busi­ness is mak­ing about 5 mil­lion, but the kitchen and wardrobe show­rooms are mak­ing 25 mil­lion.

[00:52:13] Tony: So. You know, I think, um, uh, this com­pa­ny is doing a pret­ty good job of mov­ing away from, or I should­n’t say mov­ing away from bed­shed, but get­ting into, uh, a new busi­ness which, um, has, uh, bet­ter mar­gins for it, um, and bet­ter return than what tra­di­tion­al­ly it’s oper­at­ed. Uh, the wardrobe busi­ness Walspan only has three stores and they oper­ate in South Aus­tralia.

[00:52:36] Tony: So I’m not sure what their plans are there to roll out that busi­ness or not. Um, but the, the big. Big busi­ness­es, Kitchen Con­nec­tion has 22 sites in Queens­land and New South Wales, and uh, Bed­shed has 6 com­pa­ny oper­a­tive stores and a fur­ther 37 fran­chise sites. And as I said, Kitchen and Wardrobe has 25 sites bring­ing in 25 mil­lion in prof­it.

[00:53:03] Tony: Bed­shed has 28 sites con­tribut­ing 5 mil­lion in prof­it. And it is the Joyce do see the expan­sion com­ing in KWB. They expect to dou­ble their kitchen and wardrobe stores in the longer term. But they still see growth in bed­shed increas­ing by 20 stores in the fore­see­able future. Inter­est­ing. I just find that kind of thing inter­est­ing from a man­age­ment point of view.

[00:53:31] Tony: You know, they’re play­ing around with dif­fer­ent types of mod­els and dif­fer­ent types of areas and will, I guess, be able to man­age the growth based on their prof­it returns and cap­i­tal require­ments in those. Uh, but the lat­est fig­ures have been good. So, um, rev­enue is up 6 per­cent half on half and EBIT is up 23 per­cent half on half.

[00:53:52] Tony: So that’s good. And the shares are doing well. Um, late­ly, so, good on PC for high­light­ing this com­pa­ny, and I hope he’s bought it, um, ear­li­er on in the year, because they’ve jumped quite dra­mat­i­cal­ly in the last month or so. I would say on the back of their prof­it results, um, That’s, that’s, I did a quick search on the news on the com­pa­ny and I could­n’t find much else but that, which would prob­a­bly, um, lead to it grow­ing.

[00:54:16] Tony: It’s pos­si­ble that there’s not much bro­ker­age cov­er­age on this stock, so it’s also pos­si­ble the stock­bro­ker upgrad­ed their rec­om­men­da­tions, um, and their clients have been buy­ing, because it’s only a small com­pa­ny. In terms of QAV num­bers, uh, I’m doing the analy­sis at a price of 4. 13. This is a small com­pa­ny, mar­ket cap’s 117 mil­lion.

[00:54:35] Tony: ADT is 26, 000, uh, so won’t suit every­body lis­ten­ing, um, may suit some. No con­sen­sus tar­get, uh, on price for this one, so we can’t com­pare the cur­rent price to con­sen­sus tar­get. Uh, IV1 is 1. 61. There’s no IV2 because we don’t have any earn­ings fore­cast com­ing from bro­kers, which is, you know, I think is prob­a­bly a good thing.

[00:55:00] Tony: If peo­ple like this stock, they can get in before many of the bro­kers. I only found one EUROS who was cov­er­ing this, which is a Perth based stock bro­ker. So yeah, oppor­tu­ni­ty to get ahead of the pack on this one. Yield from this com­pa­ny is cur­rent­ly trad­ing at 7, over 7%, 7. 07%, which scores well for us. Stock Doc­tor finan­cial health is strong and steady.

[00:55:23] Tony: Um, and the, sor­ry, the finan­cial health is strong and the trend is steady. So that’s good. ROE, if any­one’s inter­est­ed is near­ly 26 per­cent for this com­pa­ny, which is also good. PE is 12. 8 times, which is not the high­est or the low­est over the last three years. So we can’t score it for that. Prop­Caf is, uh, only is less than five on this one, 4.

[00:55:43] Tony: 97 times. So that’s a good thing. So this com­pa­ny on the met­rics is well man­aged. So ROE of 26 per­cent and Prop­Caf of less than five. It’s real­ly throw­ing out some, some cash flow­ing there, which is great. Net equi­ty per share is 1. 29 and book plus 67, and the share price I’m doing analy­sis at was 4. 13, so you can’t buy this any­where near book price, so we can’t score it for that.

[00:56:05] Tony: It does seem to have an own­er founder by the name of Dan Smetana, who looks like he was the for­mer Bed­shed chair­per­son and pos­si­bly set it up, um, but cer­tain­ly when it emerged into, or merged, or took over Joyce, um, he still cur­rent­ly holds 39%. Uh, or actu­al­ly I think a lit­tle bit less than that. There’s a cou­ple of oth­er direc­tors who hold a lit­tle bit.

[00:56:27] Tony: I think he has 37%, but we score it for Own­er Founder, which is good. Can’t score it for Con­sis­tent­ly Increas­ing Equi­ty, even though it came close, but it’s a zero for that. Uh, all in all, then on the qual­i­ty side, we give it 9 out of 11, or 82%, and 16 for the QAV score. I like the, I think the, in my mind, the um, pros and cons are the inter­est­ing part of this stock, and I, I, Strug­gled to put some things into both camps.

[00:56:56] Tony: So I think the pros for this com­pa­ny are to grow the fran­chis­ing oppor­tu­ni­ty. If it is a cap­i­tal light­weight way of grow­ing the store net­work, it is return­ing, uh, as well, um, as well in terms of prof­it sense as the small num­ber of com­pa­ny oper­at­ed stores are. Uh, I could have that wrong. Maybe if they had more com­pa­ny oper­at­ed stores, they’d be mak­ing more prof­it, but, um, fran­chise seems to be work­ing well for them, uh, def­i­nite­ly rolling out more KWB stores.

[00:57:22] Tony: The kitchen and wardrobe stores looks like a. I think East Coast Expan­sion has got to be a pos­i­tive for them. Bed Shed seems to have a his­to­ry in WA, but you know, I’ve got to, I could­n’t, I can put it in the pro col­umn, but also the cons col­umn, because If they’re based in Perth and they’re see­ing growth on the east­ern seaboard, there’s going to be a lot of man­age­ment over­head lying back and for­wards, or at least, at least set­ting up some kind of man­age­ment hub on the east coast to ser­vice those, those stores.

[00:57:53] Tony: So that may well have a cost impact at some stage. They may have all tak­en care of it, but, um, I know when I was work­ing, uh, in my exec­u­tive career, like, fly­ing to Perth was actu­al­ly fur­ther than fly­ing to Auck­land, so, when you’re based on, in Syd­ney or Mel­bourne, so, um, it does come with a cost. Uh, I think, um, on the con side, this busi­ness grave, the, the fur­ni­ture rental busi­ness, it’s, it’s tiny, it may have some upside and it may have some syn­er­gies by cycling fur­ni­ture, which they can’t sell.

[00:58:26] Tony: Um, but, uh, you know, hav­ing just been through the whole issue of rent­ing fur­ni­ture for a sale, it’s, it’s not a big busi­ness, it’s, um, you know, we went out to the place that we rent­ed from, there was one fac­to­ry, um, you know, it’s, it’s done 500, 000 for this busi­ness. There’s only so a cer­tain num­ber of com­pa­nies in the mar­ket that are up, sor­ry, busi­ness­es in the hous­es in the mar­ket that are up for sale that need fur­ni­ture rental and it tends to be short term.

[00:58:56] Tony: So you’ve got the cost of putting fur­ni­ture around and tak­ing it back all the time. Um, and it tends to have estab­lished play­ers. We knew who to go to in Syd­ney. It was only a cou­ple of play­ers in Syd­ney. So any­way, look, it might have some syn­er­gies at the back end, but I don’t see it as being a growth poten­tial for them.

[00:59:11] Tony: Um, in the kitchen. Ren­o­va­tion busi­ness. It’s, I would think there’s plen­ty of com­pe­ti­tion doing that now and IKEA springs to mind where you can go and order a mod­u­lar kitchen and they come in and replace it for you. But there are a lot of, a lot of small oper­a­tions who do well in that space now on a local basis.

[00:59:30] Tony: Um, per­haps the poten­tial is to take some of those out and become a roll up with this busi­ness, but, um. I would think that they would face com­pe­ti­tion on the kitchen side and like­wise on the wardrobe side. I know it’s only three sites for them, but I can’t see that being a huge busi­ness because again, if you’re in the mar­ket for a new wardrobe, you’re prob­a­bly get­ting a builder in to do some kind of ren­o­va­tion and they’ll have their own sup­plies for that, but I could be wrong.

[00:59:55] Tony: Um, I, I think the biggest risk that I see is that this is a small com­pa­ny. Its rev­enues were only about 140 mil­lion. The last 12 months, um, I know they’re grow­ing, so that’s a good thing, but my expe­ri­ence in invest­ing in com­pa­nies with sort of cir­ca a hun­dred mil­lion dol­lars or less is that, uh, when times are good, they, they’re fine, but they don’t have the sort of size to be able to con­tin­ue oper­at­ing for very long if there’s a down­turn in their mar­kets.

[01:00:25] Tony: You know, if you’re a, if you’re a large com­pa­ny doing a bil­lion dol­lars in sales and there’s a, there’s a down­turn, A cou­ple of years of a down­turn in the retail mar­ket, in the res­i­den­tial mar­ket, then you prob­a­bly got some reserves to be able to ride that out. But a com­pa­ny with a hun­dred mil­lion dol­lars or 140 mil­lion in rev­enue is going to do it tough.

[01:00:41] Tony: There’s not as much, um, capac­i­ty to ride through a down­turn. So I’ll high­light that as a risk. It’s always been my rule of thumb to be care­ful of these small com­pa­nies because of that. But on the flip side, it seems to be well man­aged, so per­haps that they, they, they will grow in time to, to get out of that, that sort of, um, trap of being a small rev­enue com­pa­ny when the, when the res­i­den­tial mar­ket turns down.

[01:01:05] Tony: Um, the oth­er ques­tion I had, and I had­n’t, had­n’t, did­n’t have time to do a deep dive into this, but the own­er­ship struc­ture of this com­pa­ny is a bit opaque. What I mean by that is it seems like. Either through acqui­si­tion or through neces­si­ty, these dif­fer­ent types of busi­ness­es like Bed­shed and the Kitchen One are in sep­a­rate­ly owned com­pa­nies and I was­n’t sure whether Joyce owned 100 per­cent of each of each of those or owned enough to be able to con­sol­i­date the finan­cials.

[01:01:34] Tony: So I’m not sure about the own­er­ship struc­ture here and whether there may be some ongo­ing part­ner­ship issues with the oth­er own­ers in these busi­ness­es or whether there’s an oppor­tu­ni­ty there to buy them out at some stage, but that was some­thing which, uh, I guess did need a bit more research on that.

[01:01:49] Tony: But yeah, that’s Joyce. It’s, it’s had a good half and it’s grow­ing well now. And it seems on our QAV met­rics to be, um, to be wor­thy of con­sid­er­a­tion.

[01:01:58] Cameron: We own it in two port­fo­lios. One of my, my Stock­o­pe­dia port­fo­lio bought it back in Novem­ber at 2. 99. It’s up 35%. And then the end of Feb­ru­ary in one of the live port­fo­lios, it’s up about 15 per­cent since then bought it at 3. 51. So showed up in both of those check­lists quite a while ago, late last year, ear­ly this year.

[01:02:26] Cameron: It’s done well.

[01:02:27] Tony: Yeah, good. Well, hope­ful­ly the curse of the pool pool does­n’t work with this one.

[01:02:31] Cameron: Well, I’ll tell you who has been cursed today. It just popped up in my alerts. Atlas Pearls ATP,

[01:02:39] Tony: real­ly?

[01:02:39] Cameron: which I have in a light port­fo­lio, down 32 per­cent today.

[01:02:45] Tony: Wow.

[01:02:46] Cameron: And I just looked up what’s going on. They had, uh, an auc­tion in Kobe, Japan. Which, um, accord­ing to their result, they said they had 104, 000 pearls on offer. But then, in the process of review­ing bids, the com­pa­ny formed the view that the prices sub­mit­ted did not reflect the true worth of the goods being offered.

[01:03:14] Cameron: The com­pa­ny there­fore chose to accept bids for only 68, 786 pearls, at an aver­age price of 68. 60 per piece. For total rev­enue of 4. 66 mil­lion, while this is below the unprece­dent­ed high of 112 apiece achieved at the Novem­ber 2023 auc­tion, and it is above the pric­ing of auc­tions pri­or to FY23. So they go on to say that all auc­tions, you know, the, the price they’re get­ting is bet­ter than any price they got up until FY23, but it was below what they had expect­ed and below the record.

[01:03:52] Cameron: So, um, yeah, their share price dropped 32 per­cent this after­noon after that came out,

[01:04:01] Tony: Yeah, and when I did my research on Atlas, I don’t think I ever did it as a pulled pork. I may have, but I was think­ing about doing it as a pulled pork. Um, I could­n’t find any sort of com­mod­i­ty graph of pearls. I guess that’s a very small mar­ket. Um, but yeah, it does seem to be dri­ven by these auc­tions which get held from time to time.

[01:04:20] Cameron: You haven’t done it as a whole pork, I just looked it up.

[01:04:24] Tony: yeah, okay. I remem­ber doing some research on it to think about doing it as a pull pork and I had a very small ADT, but it was also, seemed to be dri­ven by, as you say, the sale of the pearls at these auc­tions. And I could­n’t find a com­mod­i­ty graph which I thought was a bit dan­ger­ous buy­ing some­thing that’s going to be influ­enced by a com­mod­i­ty that we can’t track.

[01:04:42] Cameron: Well, turns out you were right. Um,

[01:04:45] Tony: But it has done well over the last year or two. It was top on the buy list a cou­ple of years ago and it was very small. It was like a thou­sand dol­lars ADT back then or some­thing like that.

[01:04:55] Cameron: right. Yeah, I think it’s still up like 300 per­cent over the last year, but, um, just not since I bought it. SGI Stealth is also, uh, Stealth Group Hold­ings is also down 10 per­cent today, mak­ing it also a rule one sell for me. So there’s noth­ing in the announce­ments for them since the end of Feb­ru­ary when they came out with their H1 results.

[01:05:18] Cameron: So I don’t know what’s going on with them. But with the ATP thing, it’s one of those sit­u­a­tions now where I’m like, do I sell it or do I just hold on to it now and wait for it to come back? Because it does this on a reg­u­lar basis. It falls, then it rebounds, then it falls by 30%. Like if you, um, if you, uh, pull up its news in Yahoo Finance, there’s an arti­cle from two weeks ago from Sim­ply Wall Street say­ing why we’re not con­cerned about Atlas Pearls Lim­it­ed 32 per­cent price plunge. They must have been pre­dict­ing today. And then four weeks before that Why we’re not con­cerned yet about Atlas Pearl’s 33 per­cent price plunge. Nine weeks ago, there’s no escap­ing Atlas Pearl’s mut­ed earn­ings despite a 29 per­cent share price rise. Uh, so, you know, I don’t know, man, like, it’s very, very volatile share price.

[01:06:24] Tony: Yeah. Well, it is, and it’s got a sell price cur­rent­ly of 4 cents, and the share price is 12 cents,

[01:06:30] Cameron: yeah,

[01:06:31] Tony: so it could go down fur­ther before we’re forced to sell it. But yeah. But I’ve always used the three point trend line as a way of resolv­ing these kinds of prob­lems in the absence of news.

[01:06:43] Cameron: but, you know, this is well and tru­ly fall­en through my rule one.

[01:06:47] Tony: Oh, okay, we’ve got to sell it then.

[01:06:49] Cameron: Do I though, because, drum­roll. I just fin­ished run­ning the regres­sion test with all of the new met­rics that you said before.

[01:06:57] Tony: Yeah,

[01:06:59] Cameron: Uh, the TK Spe­cial, I’m call­ing it. Um,

[01:07:03] Tony: one with the lot.

[01:07:05] Cameron: yeah. Uh, 14. 9252 CAGR.

[01:07:12] Tony: Okay.

[01:07:14] Cameron: So not a huge improve­ment over just 20 per­cent rule 1 and QAV score 0.

[01:07:17] Cameron: 2. Um, but uh, you know, slight­ly bet­ter.

[01:07:24] Tony: And just on that, so I should also men­tion on that QAV score of 0. 2, I’ve been run­ning a dum­my port­fo­lio, which is beat­ing the mar­ket as well. Um, but it’s hard to find stocks to buy with the QAV score of 0. 2, above 0. 2. Much hard­er than 0. 1. So, um, And I, I mean I think from mem­o­ry I put like a 500, 000 ADT on that, so there must be lots of, because I know there are lots of small stocks at the top end of the buy list, but um,

[01:07:54] Cameron: yeah,

[01:07:55] Tony: I was get­ting con­cen­trat­ed I think into Fleet Part­ners and ASG were a cou­ple of the stocks that come to me from mem­o­ry

[01:08:02] Cameron: right.

[01:08:03] Tony: in run­ning that port­fo­lio.

[01:08:05] Tony: Not a bad thing if you con­cen­trate into stocks, which are doing real­ly well though, by the way.

[01:08:10] Cameron: Yeah, sure. Cool. I’m just try­ing to bring up the, um, results, of these tests. I’m look­ing for the 20 per­cent rule 1 test.

[01:08:21] Tony: So for, I, I haven’t gone through and updat­ed this from, for this month. I do it at the end of every month, but, um, my test of QAV scores at 0.2 since 26 of a, oh, and that’s actu­al­ly a year ago when I start­ed, has returned 23% as of today.

[01:08:42] Cameron: Hmm.

[01:08:43] Tony: I, I do has­ten to add, I haven’t gone through. in April and look for any buys or sells for the month, um, which is how I’ve been run­ning it, uh, and that com­pared to STW for the same time, I’ve got 4.

[01:08:59] Tony: 56 per­cent which sounds a bit light, but any­way, um, cer­tain­ly doing well at 23%, but as I’ve said before that the In trad­ing the port­fo­lio, two or bet­ter stocks, and the ADT cut­off I’ve used is 50, 000, not 500, 000, so it’s not too bad. Um, I’ve got, I’ve got, uh, a posi­tion in Fleet Part­ners, which is more than half of the port­fo­lio.

[01:09:29] Tony: So I’ve just been dou­ble buy­ing and dou­ble buy­ing and dou­ble buy­ing Fleet Part­ners. Met­als X has a posi­tion and White­haven Coal has two posi­tions, a dou­ble posi­tion.

[01:09:41] Cameron: Right.

[01:09:41] Tony: And that does­n’t include div­i­dend pay­ments, that’s just the cap­i­tal improve­ment, so I know White­haven has got a good yield, I think. I know Fleet Part­ners does­n’t, but White­haven does.

[01:09:51] Tony: Oh,

[01:09:52] Cameron: Well, I’m look­ing at the 0. 2 trades for the regres­sion test that I ran a few days ago. Um, it’s seems to be trad­ing rea­son­ably reg­u­lar­ly, but it’s, uh, you know, obvi­ous­ly got a much low­er ADT. Um, but it’s buy­ing the most recent buys that it did at the end of 2023 were GRR and PRU. Um, PGH shows up before that.

[01:10:21] Cameron: A‑S-G-M-A‑H speak of the dev­il. URW, uh, KAR. Speak of the oth­er dev­il. MLX you just men­tioned. K‑S-L-P-R-N-Y-A-L-M-Y-R-Q-A-N-W-H‑C.

[01:10:39] Tony: that reminds me, the, we should men­tion the regres­sion test­ing you’re doing does­n’t include a com­mod­i­ty price graph check.

[01:10:46] Cameron: It does­n’t, that’s right. Yeah. Any­way. Um, so what do you make of that, uh, TK spe­cial result tk.

[01:10:55] Tony: Well, it has­n’t real­ly improved things, has it?

[01:10:58] Cameron: Oh, hmm.

[01:10:59] Tony: It’s inter­est­ing, isn’t it? I like the idea of a QAV. 2, it’s work­ing, like it’s work­ing for me. And I like the idea of a Rule 1 20%, which has also been work­ing for me in my sort of, um, bench­mark test­ing or my, uh, you know, kind of, Non regres­sion test­ing, I’m tri­al­ing them, I guess.

[01:11:16] Tony: Uh, so yeah, I don’t know where to go from here. I’d like to get a hold of the data and just play around with it and see what I can come up with.

[01:11:25] Cameron: What data? The buys and sells?

[01:11:27] Tony: No, no, no, the regres­sion tester and, you know, the cod­ing for it and, um, because it’s going to take a lot of time to try and get the, opti­mize the check­list num­bers, I think. I think that’s where Things like, and maybe the way to go is to, you said the cur­rent QAV was 12. 8 per­cent I think was the bench­mark, is to start deduct­ing things and see if that helps to improve it, or what impact that is.

[01:11:54] Tony: Because we, at least we can sim­pli­fy the check­list if we can’t improve returns out of all this.

[01:11:59] Cameron: Hmm. Um, well, let’s talk about all that with Matt, I guess, when we get him on next week.

[01:12:06] Tony: But I like have, have you run a QAV of 0.2 plus rule one of 20%.

[01:12:12] Cameron: well, that’s what I just did, but with all the oth­er spe­cial scor­ing in there as

[01:12:16] Tony: Okay.

[01:12:17] Cameron: So yeah, it had all the rest of the met­rics with increased scores for the things that have done well. Um, but I, before that, no, sor­ry, even before that, the oth­er day I did nor­mal scor­ing for every­thing, but then a 0. 2 score for QAV, QAV score on a 20%, it returned 13.

[01:12:37] Cameron: 88%. So, A point less CAGA than the one that I just did and them indi­vid­u­al­ly.

[01:12:46] Tony: and a but a point more than Qav is that cur­rent­ly exists.

[01:12:50] Cameron: Yes.

[01:12:51] Tony: Yeah. Inter­est­ing.

[01:12:54] Cameron: So back to ATP, it’s bro­ken through my 10 per­cent rule one, but not my 20 per­cent yet.

[01:13:00] Tony: Mm-Hmm

[01:13:01] Cameron: And I’m gonna, you know what, I’m call­ing it. I’m gonna make a spe­cial excep­tion for ATP. Because it’s just got this his­to­ry of drop­ping 30 per­cent and then com­ing back by 30%. Like with­in weeks. Like I’m not talk­ing about 6 months either.

[01:13:15] Cameron: Like, you look at the chart, over 3 months, this is the third time in the last 3 months that it’s dropped sub­stan­tial­ly and then rebound­ed. And we’re, you know, it’s, it’s, it’s only a few cents here or there, right, because it’s only trad­ing at 12 cents now,

[01:13:36] Tony: Yeah. Yeah.

[01:13:38] Cameron: by 5 cents, then it goes up by 5 cents, and then,

[01:13:42] Tony: Well maybe make it a 20% rule one test. See if

[01:13:45] Cameron: it is a bit of, a bit of a falling knife, though, now, to be hon­est, mid Feb­ru­ary, it was trad­ing at 21 cents, now it’s down to 12, so it’s recov­ered, but every time it’s recov­ered, it’s, has­n’t recov­ered back to where it was, but at least I could maybe get out of it at least. 10 per­cent loss rather than 32%.

[01:14:05] Cameron: Well, it’s only a 10 per­cent loss any­way. Yeah. Oh, I don’t know. What should I do, Tony? Fol­low the rules. Stop try­ing to

[01:14:12] Tony: a, if it’s a rule, if it’s a rule one, sell it.

[01:14:16] Cameron: Okay. God damn it.

[01:14:18] Tony: well, so the thing is, it’s always, if it’s still on the buy list and it turns up, you can always buy it again if it comes up as your best buy.

[01:14:26] Cameron: And then sell it again.

[01:14:28] Tony: Yeah,

[01:14:28] Cameron: Then it goes up by 30 per­cent and they’re like, woohoo. And then it drops. I’m like, ah, damn it. Any­way, I think that’s the, uh, that’s the guts of the show, Tony. Um, quick, quick, uh, quick, quick after hours. Cause I’ve got anoth­er, anoth­er show to do.

[01:14:45] Tony: Okay,

[01:14:47] Cameron: have you been up to? What have you

[01:14:49] Tony: well I’ve already, already told you that Dune Part 2 was, did­n’t do it for me, so I was­n’t,

[01:14:54] Cameron: me that before we went to

[01:14:56] Tony: before we start­ed record­ing. So I watched Dune Part, I’ve actu­al­ly paid for 2 Rentals, June Part 2, and Argyle. Don’t wor­ry about Argyle, it’s crap. It’s real­ly bad. Which was ter­ri­ble, because it’s got a great cast. It’s a spy dra­ma com­e­dy thing, but had a great cast with Samuel L.

[01:15:18] Tony: Jack­son, and um, Uh, oh, what’s her name? Richie, uh, Howard, Dal­las Bryce, Bryce Dal­las Howard. Uh, and uh,

[01:15:29] Cameron: John Cena, Richard E. Grant.

[01:15:32] Tony: Yep. Great cast. Ter­ri­ble movie. Awful. Yeah.

[01:15:36] Cameron: Bryan Cranston,

[01:15:38] Tony: Yep.

[01:15:38] Cameron: Rob Delaney.

[01:15:40] Tony: Yep. And, uh, who’s the lady from Cana­da who was in Home Alone? Um, Cather­ine

[01:15:46] Cameron: Oh, Cather­ine O’Hara. Yeah, the moth­er from Schit­t’s Creek. Did you watch Schit­t’s Creek?

[01:15:52] Tony: No.

[01:15:53] Cameron: Oh, dude, Schit­t’s Creek, one of the best

[01:15:56] Tony: Real­ly?

[01:15:57] Cameron: sit­coms made, yeah. It’s, the set­up is, um, her and, um,

[01:16:07] Tony: Eugene Levy?

[01:16:08] Cameron: Eugene Levy and Dan Levy. And who’s the crea here, the two Levis, father and son of the cre­ators of the show, and um, uh, who plays the daugh­ter, she’s real­ly great too, um, she’s been, we’ve seen her in oth­er things, Annie Mur­phy, uh, Chris Elliot­t’s in it, so the fam­i­ly, They’re like rich New York­ers who sud­den­ly go broke.

[01:16:32] Cameron: Some­thing hap­pens, huge dis­as­ter, and they appar­ent­ly own, one of his invest­ments was this lit­tle town in the mid­dle of nowhere that he owns, some­how it’s the only thing that the cred­i­tors haven’t tak­en, so they go to this lit­tle coun­try town in the mid­dle of nowhere, you know, some coun­try bump­kin town where they’re try­ing to fit in, but they’re just like com­plete­ly spoiled, hor­ri­ble human beings try­ing to live in this Lit­tle Ten, and then it’s all about actu­al­ly the coun­try folk with their coun­try folk atti­tudes and their coun­try folk morals, sort of shap­ing these rich, spoilt New York­ers and actu­al­ly turn­ing them into decent peo­ple.

[01:17:09] Cameron: But it’s real­ly fun­ny. Yeah. Chris­sy put me on it. She watched it all when I was work­ing and I caught up with a bit of it. Yeah. Any­way, Argyle, no good. And it’s a Matthew Vaugh­an film I just saw, direct­ed by Matthew Vaugh­an.

[01:17:22] Tony: Mm.

[01:17:23] Cameron: Who’s, you know, got a rea­son­ably good track record, com­ing out of his, uh, Guy Ritchie ears.

[01:17:31] Tony: Yeah, right. Yeah. I, I did­n’t like it. And Dune Part 2, I, I would­n’t say I did­n’t like it, but it does­n’t live up to the hype, unfor­tu­nate­ly. And maybe it’s because I real­ly enjoyed Dune Part 1, but, um, Part 2 just ends. in the mid­dle of an action sequence, um, for no appar­ent rea­son. Does­n’t have a cou­ple of key things I liked about the book and the David Lynch ver­sion, like the I Will Bend Like a Reed in the Wind scene in one of the knife fights and the knife fights were, I found, pret­ty ordi­nary.

[01:18:01] Tony: In, you know, Hol­ly­wood knife fights fol­low a, you know, The same script, always. The good guy gets wound­ed by the bad guy, fights aggres­sive­ly, and then some­how regath­ers and wins the day. But these were prob­a­bly more real­is­tic, but they just did­n’t have any oomph to them I did­n’t find.

[01:18:20] Cameron: And these are like icon­ic knife fights. I mean the Steel Knife fight is icon­ic for sci fi lovers. I mean it’s high­ly orig­i­nal, the way that you use the knife with the shield, you have to move slow­ly through the shield and all that kind of stuff. That’s like one of the set pieces in a Doom film that you’re, you know, doing.

[01:18:39] Cameron: Hang­ing out for is the Stil­lknife bat­tle.

[01:18:41] Tony: Yeah. It did­n’t do it for me, unfor­tu­nate­ly, which was a shame. Austin But­ler was good. He played the, he played the part of that. Uh, nephew of Harkon­nen who fights Mawad Dib at the end, um, he, he was prob­a­bly the high­light of the show I thought, he was good, um, Chris Walken’s in it, play­ing the Emper­or, he’s great, and he has a small part though, but yeah, and it, it, the end­ing dif­fered from my mem­o­ry of the book too, like in the, in the, Book Chani and Paul Muad’Dib, you know, I don’t think they’re mar­ried.

[01:19:13] Tony: I think he mar­ries the emper­or’s daugh­ter for polit­i­cal rea­sons, but he sticks with Chani. And, you know, they help the Fre­men recap­ture June and con­trol the spice and all that kind of stuff. But the movie did­n’t. She, she, Chani goes off into the desert, pissed off that Muad’Dib’s asked for the emper­or’s daugh­ter’s hand in mar­riage.

[01:19:31] Tony: And, uh, that’s it. Um, in the book I’m pret­ty sure it ends with not only the defeat of the Emper­or, but also of the oth­er hous­es. Um, but it does­n’t end that way this time. Paul Muir Dibb sort of turns to his band of war­riors and said, Now it’s on to the fight against the oth­er hous­es who are cir­cling the bar­ri­cades.

[01:19:50] Tony: I planned it and off they go, but I did­n’t even start them going, it’s just the end. I did, yeah. And also too, I think Cha­la­met is a bit cocky in this. He’s, he’s become a big­ger star, and um, in the first, in the first I thought he was good play­ing the sort of unsure ner­vous type who was kind of fit­ting into his role as the mes­si­ah and learn­ing his, um, his pow­ers and all that kind of stuff, but like, now it’s all ful­ly realised, he’s just super cocky in this one, which I did­n’t like.

[01:20:19] Cameron: I thought, I mean, to me that sounds like Paul’s arc too, like he does, I mean he becomes a pow­er man, I mean he, it’s not a, it’s not a sto­ry of a sane guy, I mean, Paul becomes the God Emper­or of Dune, like he does become com­plete­ly crazy, right?

[01:20:42] Tony: yeah, it becomes that, but not in the first book. And in the first, my, my endur­ing sort of love of the char­ac­ter in the first book was he’s get­ting glimpses of the future, try­ing to con­trol that as a pow­er, try­ing to learn to live with the fact that every­thing that hap­pens to him, he’s already fore­seen, includ­ing every time he sleeps with his wife.

[01:21:01] Tony: And, you know, every­thing that hap­pens around the court every day, he knows exact­ly what’s going to hap­pen before­hand. And I mean, that’s enough to dri­ve any­one crazy, real­ly. It’s like, it’s like Ground­hog Day every day for this guy, but. You know, he’s kind of learn­ing to live with it and grow with it and use it.

[01:21:16] Tony: But Cha­la­met just comes off with this conky sort of sav­iour of the plan­et. But any­way, that’s just, I guess that’s my crit­i­cism. Some great sand­worm scenes where they’re rid­ing through the desert on the back of sand­worms, kind of treat­ing them like these boats in the desert, which is kind of cool. yeah, but, uh, you know, left me, left me fair­ly.

[01:21:36] Tony: Yeah, left me want­i­ng my 25 bucks back from Ama­zon or what­ev­er it was to wait until it became a free episode.

[01:21:44] Cameron: Yeah. Well, I’m going to wait. Cause

[01:21:47] Tony: yeah, you should.

[01:21:48] Cameron: bucks, but, uh, yeah.

[01:21:51] Tony: I did like, how­ev­er, um, I watched the first episode of Shogun, which I like. You put me onto that one, which was good.

[01:21:56] Cameron: I did­n’t like it.

[01:21:57] Tony: that. No, I thought

[01:21:58] Cameron: gave up after the, well, no, I watched the first, I’m a big fan of the books. Um, again, you’re like, I read them the same age when I read Dune. It was, you know, my 15, 14, 15 sort of thing. I did­n’t like the first episode, but Tay­lor watched the whole thing and he’s been rav­ing about it. So he said, nah, you need to, you need to watch the whole thing.

[01:22:17] Cameron: It’s real­ly good.

[01:22:18] Tony: I like the first one. I’ll prob­a­bly keep watch­ing it. I did like Fall­out. Have you seen that?

[01:22:23] Cameron: No, but a cou­ple of guys at Kung Fu were rav­ing about it and the, and the twins were up here rav­ing about it on Sun­day. I mean, I love Wal­ton Gog­gins, always. Wal­ton

[01:22:32] Tony: He’s good.

[01:22:33] Cameron: just, yeah, every­thing he’s ever done, from The Shield through to Vice Prin­ci­pals and the Right­eous Gem­stones and the Taran­ti­no films.

[01:22:42] Cameron: Actu­al­ly, he had a TV show a while back there that was­n’t that good, but, um, Where he was like a sin­gle dad rebuild­ing him­self. I got one episode into that and, you know, turned it off, but he’s, he’s, you know, real­ly great tal­ent. Yeah. Shane, he’s always Shane from the shield for me. He’ll always be Shane.

[01:23:00] Tony: Yeah. So he’s good in it. Kyle McLaugh­lin has a part in it. Speak­ing of, Paul Moir did. Yeah. Yeah. And so it looks like, um, I did­n’t read the cred­its, but it looked like Nakel Nakels has a, Lieu­tenant Uhu­ru from Star Trek has a small part in it too. Yeah. Yeah. But yeah, I real­ly enjoyed it. I watched the first three episodes of that and I’m enjoy­ing it.

[01:23:23] Tony: It’s worth watch­ing.

[01:23:23] Cameron: of thing I would expect. Like, it’s based on a game, right? Not the sort of thing I’d expect you to get into.

[01:23:28] Tony: Well, it’s sci fi, so I often enjoy good sci fi. Yeah. But that’s me. And then last­ly, uh, we got a horse run­ning on Anzac Day at Flem­ing­ton called Poi­fect. So, um, look­ing for­ward to her first start again. Best prep.

[01:23:42] Cameron: Good luck with that.

[01:23:43] Tony: Yeah. Thank you.

[01:23:45] Cameron: Well, I watched, well, we watched a bit more of, uh, 3 Body Prob­lem and, you know, I’m enjoy­ing how they’re depict­ing aspects of it. I loved the scene with the ship. That was kin­da cool. Bru­tal to see, but kind of cool.

[01:24:01] Tony: It’s a good scene. It is a great scene, isn’t it?

[01:24:04] Cameron: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like it real­ly, you real­ly sort of feel the, you know, what’s going on.

[01:24:11] Cameron: Um, I watched a bit more of The Gen­tle­man. Like we just haven’t watched, my mum’s been here, she just left. So we haven’t real­ly watched a lot of TV, um, for the last cou­ple of weeks. But, and I’ve had a lot of, a lot of insom­nia. Recent­ly, like I had like two or three nights with, with like no sleep and did­n’t get much sleep last night, but that was more of a Fox thing, but woke me up a cou­ple of times.

[01:24:33] Cameron: But yeah, it just said it every now and again, I have this real­ly bad run of insom­nia where I just, my brain just, it’s not that I’m think­ing about any­thing. It’s just, it’s just awake. You know, I’m like, they’re going, just go to sleep. Why won’t you just go to sleep? And then even­tu­al­ly, you know, on the sec­ond night, I just got like at 2am, I was like, ah, screw it and just start­ed cod­ing.

[01:24:54] Cameron: And that’s when I solved them. I solved a lot of cod­ing prob­lems between 2 and 5am, you know, it was actu­al­ly real­ly good. Um, but, uh, I’ve been read­ing, still read­ing the, oh, I’ve been read­ing the Don Xiaop­ing book, but then I start­ed read­ing, um, Medi­um Raw, um, one of Bour­dain’s books.

[01:25:20] Tony: Oh, right. Yep.

[01:25:21] Cameron: And, uh, god damn that guy could write.

[01:25:25] Tony: Mm

[01:25:26] Cameron: such a good writer. So vis­cer­al, and fun­ny, and sar­cas­tic. Um, so I real­ly enjoyed, uh, I got halfway through that and then real­ized I had­n’t read Kitchen Con­fi­den­tial. So I’ve gone back

[01:25:41] Tony: Oh, okay.

[01:25:41] Cameron: start­ed Kitchen Con­fi­den­tial and then I’ll fin­ish this one lat­er. But the Don Xiaop­ing book is great. I’m just up to the point where I mean, Mao’s dead, and Hua Guofeng is still run­ning things, but Dong is real­ly reshap­ing, he’s in charge of the econ­o­my, and the mil­i­tary, and stuff like that, and it’s just going hell for them, they’ve just sent, uh, a group of, um, econ­o­mists, and busi­ness lead­ers, or what­ev­er, most­ly econ­o­mists I think, And min­is­ters, eco­nom­ic min­is­ters and what­ev­er, to Japan and Europe in the mid 70s, um, to late 70s, 60s, 76, 77, and they’re just shocked at not only how far ahead of Chi­na are.

[01:26:25] Cameron: All these, uh, cap­i­tal­ist, uh, economies are, but also the fact that the cap­i­tal­ists are just show­ing them every­thing and, and, and offer­ing to loan them bil­lions of dol­lars to, you know, rebuild their infra­struc­ture. They’re like, hold on, they’re still in this cold, the Chi­nese are still in this cold war men­tal­i­ty and the cap­i­tal­ists, they expect­ed all of the cap­i­tal­ist economies to be.

[01:26:49] Cameron: You know, defunct and oppress­ing the peo­ple and strug­gling and they go around and they’re just like, holy shit, we are so far behind, this is ridicu­lous. And they’re just tak­ing us into their fac­to­ries and show­ing us all their secrets and telling us every­thing and offer­ing to help us build our own, uh, econ­o­my.

[01:27:07] Cameron: Because they real­ized they were over­pro­duc­ing. They need­ed trad­ing part­ners. They want­ed Chi­na to be, you know, eco­nom­i­cal­ly able to become a major trad­ing part­ner of Europe and then even­tu­al­ly the Unit­ed States. They haven’t nor­mal­ized rela­tions with the U. S. real­ly at this stage. They’re still work­ing on that, but they’ve nor­mal­ized rela­tion­ship with Europe and with Japan.

[01:27:28] Cameron: Yeah, it’s fas­ci­nat­ing to just learn more about that peri­od in the

[01:27:32] Tony: Mm hmm.

[01:27:34] Cameron: Um, I’m not real­ly that aware of, and just Dong’s sto­ry, like how many times he was pun­ished and se you know, sent out to the sticks dur­ing Mao’s days and just, just stuck to his knit­ting, just had a vision for what he was gonna do if ever he got the hands on the wheel, and when he got his hands on the wheel, he just went hell for leather to build Chi­na up, and um, he’s not a young man at this point, like he’s in his, he’s Ear­ly sev­en­ties, I think, and he’s just going full speed ahead.

[01:28:08] Cameron: They, they come back from this thing of Europe and says they’re will­ing to loan us 18 bil­lion and a lot of the, a lot of the Chi­nese min­is­ters are wor­ried about get­ting into, you know, some sort of debt slav­ery and Dong’s response is 18, let’s go for 80.

[01:28:24] Tony: Yeah.

[01:28:25] Cameron: let’s try and get 80. Like we have no time to lose.

[01:28:29] Cameron: We need to invest in infra­struc­ture and fac­to­ries and we need to build up our man­u­fac­tur­ing capa­bil­i­ty and all that kind of stuff. So yeah, he’s a real­ly inter­est­ing, real­ly inter­est­ing char­ac­ter.

[01:28:42] Tony: It’s real­ly great to read about those char­ac­ters, cur­rent­ly I guess, but also in his­to­ry, who just have that abil­i­ty to know what they need to do and just put the ped­al down to do it. Because like these days, you know, it’s like, All the bloody news is full of is one side or the oth­er. You know, my vision for Amer­i­ca is to elim­i­nate all the woke lib­er­als or, you know, what­ev­er.

[01:29:02] Tony: It’s not, it’s not, no, no, we have to do this and, and we need to do it hard and fast. Yeah.

[01:29:10] Cameron: And I, and I think he felt a lot of respon­si­bil­i­ty for his role in the Great Leap For­ward, which had been a huge dis­as­ter. And, uh, you know, Mao knew that he was crit­i­cal of that and that he had­n’t sup­port­ed the Cul­tur­al Rev­o­lu­tion. And I think Dong felt that he had to. In fact, he said pub­licly at this junc­ture, um, we have failed, he’s talk­ing about the Chi­nese lead­er­ship, we have failed the peo­ple and we need to address the fail­ures and, you know, we need to do it quick­ly.

[01:29:45] Cameron: So, you know, it takes a, it takes a big man to admit that lev­el of cul­pa­bil­i­ty and fail­ure, Mao was­n’t able to do it for all of his genius. And Mao, I think, was a genius. It’s inter­est­ing, you know, when I got to the point of the book where he died, I went to the New York Times archives and looked at what they were say­ing about him when he died.

[01:30:07] Cameron: And Ger­ald Ford was the pres­i­dent, Repub­li­can at the time, was talk­ing about Mao as a genius and a vision­ary and one of the great­est men who ever lived. Kissinger was singing his prais­es as a great man and all that sort of stuff. It was very dif­fer­ent. era of Amer­i­can Chi­nese rela­tions. But he was very flawed and, and, um, screwed up a lot of things in that last, you know, 20 odd years.

[01:30:35] Cameron: But, uh, before that, like, what he man­aged to do with the rev­o­lu­tion and, uh, you know, build­ing. You know, pulling Chi­na out of impe­ri­al­ism and, um, the, the, the cen­tu­ry of humil­i­a­tion and get­ting them onto some sta­ble foot­ing of a pop­u­la­tion of 500 mil­lion peo­ple and all that kind of stuff. Um, turn­ing it around, he, he did an amaz­ing job, but he could­n’t, could­n’t ex, could­n’t exe­cute the last part.

[01:31:07] Cameron: Required dong. Any­way. Oh, I just got a Char­lie horse. Just got a cramp in my Oh, Oh, Oh, I need a banana and some mag­ne­sium. I think I bet­ter go.

[01:31:21] Tony: All right.

[01:31:22] Cameron: got 10 min­utes before my next show too.

[01:31:25] Tony: Okay.

[01:31:26] Cameron: Thank you, TK.

[01:31:27] Tony: that. I’ll talk to you next week.

[01:31:29] Cameron: Uh, you can talk to me Fri­day, but we’ll talk about that off air. All right. Cheers.

[01:31:34] Tony: Cheers. Bye.