QAV Club Weekly Update 2024-04-23

QAV 716 C

[00:00:00] Cameron: gimme 1, 2, 3 again.

[00:00:08] Tony: 1, 2, 3, again.

[00:00:11] Cameron: Oh, you’re fun­ny. This is the two Ron­nies . It’s good night from me and it’s good night from him. Good night.

[00:00:17] Tony: 2, 4 can­dles, please.

[00:00:19] Tony: Well,

[00:00:24] Cameron: episode 7 1 6, the 16th of All Aries fall­en below 8,000. Today Tony below 7,900. Actu­al­ly low­est point since the 15th of Feb­ru­ary, two months. Wiped out. In the last week, I had to rule one DTL and OML from my super today. And I had three parcels of DTL for some rea­son.

[00:00:48] Cameron: I went to sell DTL out of my super and went. That’s a big num­ber. That does­n’t look right. I had three parcels for some rea­son and only one of them was a rule one, tech­ni­cal­ly. The oth­ers weren’t. One was like up 1%, the oth­er was down 4%, but when I dol­lar cost aver­aged the three parcels, it was still a rule one.

[00:01:07] Cameron: So, I, uh, I had to let it go.

[00:01:11] Tony: that’s bad luck. I’m look­ing for­ward to when the regres­sion test­ing gets ver­i­fied and we can change rule 1 to 20 per­cent rather than 10 per­cent if that’s the case. If that’s how

[00:01:20] Tony: the num­bers

[00:01:21] Tony: crunch.

[00:01:23] Cameron: by the way, Matt Walk­er’s offered to come on the show and talk about how he set it up and we can go through some details. So I’m going to work out a date with him to do that. Yeah. He said, he thinks some of the prob­lems I’ve been hav­ing, some of the issues are because he’s rely­ing on Yahoo finance pric­ing for some of the cal­cu­la­tions.

[00:01:39] Cameron: And he thinks the Yahoo finance. Num­bers are a lit­tle bit flaky some­times. So we’re exper­i­ment, he’s exper­i­ment­ing with, um, some oth­er data sources for that to try and, um, nail that. But I think we’re always going to have data

[00:01:54] Tony: the Bread­later has them too with Google Finance occa­sion­al­ly, so yeah, Stock Doc­tor has them with wher­ev­er their feed comes from.

[00:02:01] Cameron: Yeah. Noth­ing’s ever going to be per­fect. But why is the mar­ket down, Tony? Explain it to me, Oh Lord.

[00:02:08] Tony: Oh Lord.

[00:02:08] Tony: Ha ha

[00:02:10] Cameron: Sor­ry. I’ve been watch­ing Three Body

[00:02:11] Cameron: Prob­lem.

[00:02:12] Tony: ha. Uh, well the mar­ket’s down for two rea­sons. Um, one because of the Iran Iraq, uh, sor­ry, Iran Israel

[00:02:21] Tony: insta­bil­i­ty. Uh,

[00:02:23] Cameron: I ran so far

[00:02:24] Tony: yeah, flock of seag­ulls we’ll call it. Um, and uh, the oth­er one is because I think peo­ple are final­ly real­is­ing that uh, rate cuts are, you know, going fur­ther and fur­ther into the dis­tance.

[00:02:38] Tony: There’s been a cou­ple of good num­bers com­ing out of the US in the last day or so, which tend to get peo­ple think­ing the econ­o­my is strong, which you’d think would be a good thing, except that the mar­ket wants the econ­o­my to be bad so that they can expect a rate cut, which will debt fuel the

[00:02:54] Tony: whole she­bang

[00:02:55] Tony: again, start the whole process off again.

[00:02:57] Cameron: Oh, so the econ­o­my needs to be bad so the rate cuts will come in which will make the

[00:03:01] Tony: Yeah, and then politi­cians can say they’re good eco­nom­ic man­agers, recruit­ing the econ­o­my to

[00:03:06] Tony: get the share

[00:03:07] Tony: mar­ket up.

[00:03:08] Cameron: Right. Alright, I get it now. Makes per­fect sense. Yeah.

[00:03:12] Tony: Yeah, So those two things have com­bined this week to, to, um, give the mar­ket a pause.

[00:03:18] Cameron: Well, speak­ing about things col­laps­ing this week, you’re uh, pulled Pork from a few weeks ago. Bank of Queens­land! Col­lapsed faster than Bruce Lehrman­n’s cred­i­bil­i­ty the last week faster than chan­nel sev­en’s, hook­er and cocaine bud­get for inter­views. It’s, uh,

[00:03:38] Tony: Dis­ap­peared faster,

[00:03:39] Cameron: it’s an o it’s an omni sham­bles. As the judge of the Bruce Lehrman­n’s civ­il tri­al said an omni sham­bles on rumors that they’re gonna take, I think it was a 40%.

[00:03:53] Cameron: Prof­it hit when their results come out on the 17th, which is tomor­row. Now, I’m not going to ask you for inside infor­ma­tion because I know, A, you don’t have any even though. Mrs. Kynas­ton sits on the board of Bank of Queens­land. But tell her I’m not hap­py. Tell her I’m not, not hap­py.

[00:04:12] Tony: went to her and showed her the share price drop a cou­ple of days ago when it dropped and she was like, oh, okay.

[00:04:20] Tony: I’m like, it’s not

[00:04:21] Tony: good.

[00:04:21] Tony: Yeah, that’s all she had. Yeah, no, it’s a sor­ry tale. I did­n’t have any inside infor­ma­tion. I don’t think, I haven’t asked Jen­ny. I think it was a bit of a sur­prise to her that, Share

[00:04:34] Tony: prices dropped

[00:04:35] Tony: as well.

[00:04:36] Tony: Um, we,

[00:04:37] Cameron: Hope­ful­ly it’s not a sur­prise to her that the prof­it announce­ment, they’re tak­ing a 40 per­cent hit on their prof­it in

[00:04:42] Tony: well, we’ll find out

[00:04:43] Cameron: She would­n’t tell

[00:04:44] Tony: would­n’t

[00:04:44] Tony: tell me now, but

[00:04:46] Cameron: she’s a

[00:04:46] Tony: yeah.

[00:04:47] Tony: Um, yeah. So

[00:04:50] Tony: look, I, I per­son­al­ly, I thought Bank of Queens­land had a lot of bad news already baked into its share price,

[00:04:56] Tony: but

[00:04:56] Tony: obvi­ous­ly not.

[00:04:58] Cameron: but here’s my seri­ous ques­tion. Who’s get­ting the rumors? Like, how are they spread­ing that the prof­it’s going to be 40 per­cent down to the, to the point where it’s dropped by what? 10, 10 per­cent share price is down by 10 per­cent in the last, uh,

[00:05:15] Tony: Yeah.

[00:05:15] Cameron: Uh, who’s, how does that

[00:05:17] Cameron: hap­pen?

[00:05:19] Tony: I don’t know in this par­tic­u­lar case, it’s either a very, um, a very savvy bank­ing ana­lyst has crunched some num­bers and made some, made some hypo­thet­i­cals in their spread­sheet, or some­one’s leaked, which is also pos­si­ble.

[00:05:31] Cameron: Well, it’s an omni sham­bles. I tell you, I had to sell it from a

[00:05:34] Tony: Yeah, but look, you’ve raised a real­ly good ques­tion and, and the A SX should be on top of these kinds of things and ask­ing that exact ques­tion. And the, the prob­lem is, in the past when they’ve asked the ques­tion, the, the man­age­ment at the com­pa­ny con­cern

[00:05:48] Tony: just goes, we

[00:05:49] Tony: dun­no. Sor­ry.

[00:05:51] Cameron: Oh, they did a Brett Ban­duc­ci. Brad Ban­duc­ci,

[00:05:54] Cameron: sor­ry.

[00:05:57] Cameron: This is one of the sto­ries I added at the last minute today. Wool­worths CEO Brad Ban­duc­ci threat­ened with six months prison for hold­ing Sen­ate in con­tempt.

[00:06:06] Cameron: The Sen­ate inquiry into super­mark pric­ing has threat­ened Wool­worths boss Brad Ban­duc­ci with con­tempt for fail­ing to answer sim­ple ques­tions.

[00:06:15] Cameron: He was warned he could face six months in prison or a 5, 000 fine. If he was held in con­tempt by the Sen­ate com­mit­tee. So now I’m think­ing 5, 000 fines ain’t no thing to Brad Ban­duc­ci, but, uh, six months in the slam­mer might be. Things went awry when Green Sen­a­tors Nick McKim, com­mit­tee chair, asked, asked Mr.

[00:06:35] Cameron: Ban­duc­ci if return on equi­ty was an impor­tant mea­sure of cor­po­rate prof­itabil­i­ty. Seems like a pret­ty sim­ple ques­tion to answer. Mr. Ban­duc­ci refused to answer the ques­tion. And he repeat­ed­ly refused to answer it, despite the ques­tion being asked over a dozen times. The back and forth between Sen­a­tor McKim and Mr.

[00:06:59] Cameron: Ban­duc­ci became so repet­i­tive, that Mr. Ban­duc­ci was warned that the com­mit­tee could hold him in con­tempt. I’m not inter­est­ed in your spin or your bull­shit, Sen­a­tor McKim said. Ooh, and every­one else on the pan­el went, Ooh, that esca­lat­ed quick­ly. And after Mr. Ban­duc­ci con­tin­ued to refuse to answer the ques­tion, Sen­a­tor McKim sus­pend­ed the com­mit­tee to dis­cuss the issue of con­tempt with his com­mit­tee col­leagues.

[00:07:29] Cameron: When pro­ceed­ings returned and the inquiry picked up again, Mr. Ban­duc­ci was giv­en one final warn­ing about answer­ing sim­ple ques­tions. With a thread of con­tempt in the air, Mr. Ban­duc­ci told sen­a­tors that if it helped to push the hear­ing for­ward, he would hap­py to say he did­n’t know what the return on equi­ty was for Wool­worths Group last finan­cial year.

[00:07:50] Tony: just looked it up. No,

[00:07:54] Cameron: looked it up, it was 30. 02%,

[00:07:58] Tony: and

[00:07:58] Tony: that’s the

[00:07:58] Tony: high­est for a while too,

[00:08:01] Cameron: it’s the high­est for a while, but I went to Investo­pe­dia and asked it, what’s, what’s sort of retail aver­age return on equi­ty look like, accord­ing to Investo­pe­dia, retail ROE is about 26 per­cent on aver­age, it said, Uh, but it varies depend­ing on obvi­ous­ly the indus­try you’re in and the kind of busi­ness you’re in.

[00:08:19] Cameron: For exam­ple, Wal­mart’s ROE as of July 31st, 2022 was 15. 68%. Macy’s ROE for the same peri­od was 45. 93%. Um, and I’m sure if you looked at Apple’s, it would be like A thou­sand mil­lion per­cent, but um, I, I have no idea why Mr. Ban­duc­ci, A, could­n’t answer if it was an impor­tant mea­sure, or B, would­n’t want to talk about Wool­worth’s ROE.

[00:08:48] Cameron: I mean, it’s pub­lic, it’s on record, it is what it is, so what’s the point of not answer­ing the ques­tion in front of a Sen­ate com­mit­tee? What’s he try­ing to achieve

[00:08:57] Tony: he,

[00:08:58] Cameron: Does­n’t want to talk about prof­it?

[00:08:59] Tony: got some, either get­ting some real­ly ter­ri­ble PR train­ing or, um, well, he’s, he’s leav­ing Wool­worths based on his Per­for­mance in an ABC Four Cor­ners inter­view on super­mar­kets where he got up and did­n’t want to answer the ques­tion. So there’s a bit of, bit of form here, I guess. He obvi­ous­ly did­n’t want to say ROE was an impor­tant met­ric because Wool­worths is at its high point for ROE.

[00:09:21] Tony: Um, so what? It’s, it’s like, uh, you know, the, the, the line that the super­mar­kets have been push­ing, which I think is rea­son­able, is to say they’re mak­ing two and a half to 3 per­cent net prof­it mar­gins. So they could have a high return on equi­ty, but if they’re not mak­ing more than 2 or 3 per­cent mar­gins, that’s a pret­ty pow­er­ful argu­ment to say there’s an awful lot of com­pe­ti­tion in the super­mar­ket indus­try.

[00:09:50] Cameron: Hmm.

[00:09:51] Tony: So he’s, I mean, I, you know, I’ve just rat­tled it off with­out even any notice or think­ing about it. He could­n’t do that in the Sen­ate Esti­mate Com­mit­tee. He’s made an even big­ger news arti­cle out of some­thing which would have just been ignored.

[00:10:05] Cameron: Seems to me he’s, he’s try­ing to be Ker­ry Pack­er, basi­cal­ly just thumb­ing his nose at the whole oper­a­tion and like, uh, I don’t have to answer your ques­tions. You’re a, you’re a pack of idiots. Um,

[00:10:17] Tony: arro­gant stance to take, isn’t it? And gen­er­al­ly arro­gant peo­ple who don’t own their entire com­pa­ny don’t last very long in

[00:10:24] Tony: Aus­tralian pub­lic life.

[00:10:25] Tony: Yeah,

[00:10:29] Cameron: So he was appoint­ed Man­ag­ing Direc­tor and CEO in Feb­ru­ary 2016. Pri­or to that, he was Man­ag­ing Direc­tor of Wool­worths Food Group from March 2015. Direc­tor of the group’s drinks busi­ness between 2012 and March 2015. Joined the group in 2011 with the acqui­si­tion of the Cel­lar Mas­ters Group, where he was the CEO from 2007 to 2011.

[00:10:52] Cameron: Pri­or to that, Chief Finan­cial Offi­cer and Direc­tor at Tyro Pay­ments, and a Vice Pres­i­dent and Direc­tor with the Boston Con­sult­ing Group, where he was a core mem­ber of their retail prac­tice for 15 years. So he’s been in retail, long time, um, knows his stuff, prob­a­bly knows what the aver­age prof­it mar­gins and return on equi­ty of retail would be, just does­n’t like answer­ing ques­tions from jour­nal­ists or sen­a­tors,

[00:11:21] Tony: which is strange, isn’t it? I mean, the guy’s had a good track record, obvi­ous­ly return on equi­ty of that num­ber, 30 per­cent odd, is a good result for Wool­worths. So he’s man­aged the com­pa­ny very well. He’s thought of high­ly. Why would he want to leave with this kind of

[00:11:34] Tony: lega­cy? I just don’t

[00:11:34] Tony: get it.

[00:11:36] Cameron: Well, my ques­tion, the rea­son for bring­ing this up, Tony, my ques­tion is, um, you know, Wool­worths, WOW has been a, um, a QAV stock from time to time. Some of our lis­ten­ers might hold it. Is it a red flag if the CEO goes to prison for con­tempt? Is

[00:11:57] Tony: is leav­ing. So he’s already on his last

[00:11:59] Tony: days.

[00:12:01] Tony: Yes,

[00:12:02] Cameron: Uh, he’s on his

[00:12:03] Tony: after the four cor­ners, the bar call

[00:12:05] Cameron: Oh, that’s right. They said that

[00:12:06] Cameron: was it. He was, and he was like, ah, it’s got noth­ing to do with that. I was, I was leav­ing any­way. Yeah. Yeah. You don’t, I was leav­ing the par­ty any­way. Hey, you’re not kick­ing me out of the par­ty. I had already decid­ed. I just had­n’t told any­one I was leav­ing the par­ty, but I was leav­ing the par­ty.

[00:12:22] Tony: I’m going to kick the chairs over on the way

[00:12:24] Tony: out.

[00:12:27] Cameron: Yeah, well their share price, um, has­n’t, well no one’s share price is doing well today to be fair, but, uh, yeah, their share price has­n’t been far­ing well of late. Um, March 2024, end of March it was trad­ing at 33 bucks, now it’s down 31. 69, so, yeah, it’s like a 10%, I guess, give or take.

[00:12:50] Tony: that’s, that’s quite a

[00:12:50] Tony: bit.

[00:12:51] Tony: Oh,

[00:12:53] Cameron: yeah, but if I go back to, uh, Jan­u­ary, uh, it was at 36, 36 bucks down to 31.

[00:13:05] Cameron: That’s a 20 per­cent drop. Well, 10 per­cent is three bucks rough­ly.

[00:13:12] Tony: what sixth year 18%.

[00:13:17] Cameron: So, uh, yeah, not good if you’re a Wool­worths, uh, share­hold­er. I don’t know how much of that has to do with his per­for­mance ver­sus oth­er things going on in the

[00:13:27] Tony: Yeah. Well, there’s an inquiry into the super­mar­kets over the cost of liv­ing and whether or not they’re price

[00:13:31] Tony: goug­ing.

[00:13:32] Cameron: Well, you know, look at Coles over the same peri­od. Jan­u­ary it was trad­ing at 16. It’s still trad­ing at 16, went up to 17 at one point, still trad­ing at 16. So Coles is basi­cal­ly where it was at the end of Jan­u­ary. He’s down 18, 20%. So, Hmm, I don’t know. Any­way, not a red flag. If, uh, the CEO goes to jail,

[00:13:58] Tony: if they’ve already

[00:13:58] Tony: quit.

[00:14:00] Cameron: is it a red flag?

[00:14:00] Cameron: If the CEO does­n’t know what return on

[00:14:03] Tony: Yes, that’s def­i­nite­ly a red flag.

[00:14:05] Tony: I think

[00:14:06] Tony: so.

[00:14:08] Cameron: It’s just not a red flag because he’s mak­ing so much mon­ey he does­n’t want to talk about it in

[00:14:13] Tony: Maybe, maybe his BCG back­ground was com­ing to the fore and he was, what he was real­ly say­ing was, I can tell you the answer, but it’s going to cost you 5, 000 a day.

[00:14:24] Cameron: I think a con­sul­tant takes your watch and you pay them to tell

[00:14:30] Tony: Yeah, that’s right. Steals your watch and then they charge you the time.

[00:14:34] Cameron: Yeah. Uh, well, mov­ing right along, um, light port­fo­lios STW, Tony. I did my report, well that was yes­ter­day, I haven’t looked at it

[00:14:44] Cameron: today, but look­ing at the light port­fo­lios, yeah, as of yes­ter­day as a group. Since incep­tion they were up about 6. 5 per­cent and the STW was up about 9 per­cent over the same peri­od.

[00:14:57] Cameron: It was going down and we were going up. Uh, when I looked yes­ter­day, so yeah, they’re start­ing to catch up, which is good. Of course, the dum­my port­fo­lio I looked at, uh, today, I did my week­ly report on it today. Still, um, per­form­ing very well. Dum­my port­fo­lio, basi­cal­ly rough­ly dou­ble mar­ket since incep­tion.

[00:15:20] Cameron: And, uh, for the finan­cial year, dum­my port­fo­lio is up 14. 3 per­cent ver­sus the STW up 12%. So we’re beat­ing it, um, pret­ty much on every met­ric I look at. Cur­rent hold­ings of just, uh, some of the stocks. This is, uh, all time, you know, of the things that we cur­rent­ly hold. Lind­say Aus­tralia, not to be con­fused with Lyn­fox.

[00:15:48] Cameron: Lind­say Aus­tralia up 73 per­cent per annum, um, since we’ve had that, CAGR. Uh, MLX, Met­als X up 71 per­cent per annum. DUR up 70%, FPR up 66%, KOV up 36%, KSC up 35%, CVL up 21%, CAA up 21%, VVA 17%, ASG 17%, TRS 16%, and then a few sin­gle dig­it things. And the only stock that we cur­rent­ly hold that’s below water is ANZ, which is down about a point.

[00:16:33] Cameron: Since we’ve had it, which isn’t that long, I think. But any­way, things are going well on all the port­fo­lio fronts. Thanks to the mag­ic of QAV. I made a list of pulled porks. Some­body sug­gest­ed that, uh, the last week or so I’ve start­ed mak­ing a list as a spread­sheet. You can find on the club mem­ber page down the bot­tom, a list, at least the last year of pulled porks.

[00:16:54] Cameron: I haven’t gone back ear­li­er than that yet, but I’ll try and get them all in there. Although I guess at some point they’re a lit­tle bit irrel­e­vant and they get a lit­tle bit old, a lit­tle bit long in the tooth. Like us.

[00:17:05] Tony: So I looked at that. Thank you. How much do you, as a port­fo­lio of stocks? How, how good or bad do you think

[00:17:14] Tony: they’ve returned over that 12 months?

[00:17:17] Cameron: ah, well, I, I know the answer, but I’m going to play dev­il’s advo­cate here. Being, know­ing about the pulled pork curse, I would guess that they suck.

[00:17:28] Tony: No, they beat the

[00:17:29] Tony: mar­ket. So

[00:17:32] Cameron: By how

[00:17:32] Tony: buy and hold, um, no three point trend line trad­ing or what­ev­er. They’re up. So I start, this is from when the Actu­al­ly, it’s actu­al­ly longer than, a lit­tle bit longer than 12 months, because I think you put Rio in there from Jan­u­ary 2022. Uh, there are, the port­fo­lio, every stock in the pulled pork list up 8%, and the STW over the same peri­od up 6%.

[00:17:56] Tony: And I did­n’t both­er going to the trou­ble of adding div­i­dends to that, so it’s 8

[00:18:01] Tony: per­cent plus

[00:18:01] Tony: div­i­dends.

[00:18:04] Cameron: And, uh, you, uh, adding them to a port­fo­lio at the time you did the pulled

[00:18:12] Tony: I am,

[00:18:12] Tony: yes. So I got the

[00:18:15] Cameron: And one of the inter­est­ing thing about that

[00:18:16] Cameron: is you got the

[00:18:17] Tony: got the share price at the time that we did the pulled pork

[00:18:21] Tony: and com­pared it to STW from the, from Jan­u­ary 2022, which is when the

[00:18:24] Tony: first stock was

[00:18:25] Tony: added.

[00:18:26] Cameron: the inter­est­ing thing, um, about that is, the pulled porks don’t have any real theme to them either, except they’re on the buy list usu­al­ly,

[00:18:33] Tony: And some of them are ques­tions too. So there’s a cou­ple in there which aren’t on the buy list. Although I think they depress, they depress

[00:18:40] Tony: returns.

[00:18:41] Tony: Yeah.

[00:18:43] Cameron: Well, that’s, you know, that’s proven once and for all that the pulled pork curse is the, what’s the oppo­site of a curse? Uh,

[00:18:50] Tony: Yeah. A

[00:18:51] Tony: bless­ing,

[00:18:51] Cameron: pork

[00:18:52] Cameron: bless­ing.

[00:18:53] Tony: Yeah. Well, it’s, it’s helped. There’s a cou­ple of real­ly out­stand­ing ones. Uh, Fin­di is up, um, two and a half times. Yeah. And that’s from Jan­u­ary this year. Uh, South­ern Cross Elec­tri­cal engi­neer­ing’s up 50%. So is, uh, Vale, Rodan, co. West­field and Fleet Part­ners and Elia. So there’s a few stocks on there, which have, have done real­ly well.

[00:19:21] Tony: A few turkeys in there, of course, and New Zealand down 30%. Uh, baby Bunting down 26. Uh, prob­a­bly the worst was Core Lithi­um. Down 59. But at the time I said, don’t buy Core Lithi­um when I did the pulled pork. So you can

[00:19:36] Tony: prob­a­bly back that one

[00:19:37] Tony: out.

[00:19:38] Cameron: true. Maybe we should do a Tim Lin­coln and we should have like, uh, just the pulled pork index and, um, you know, we’ll just. Track that as a port­fo­lio. You don’t need to do any­thing else. Just buy Tony’s pulled pork.

[00:19:52] Tony: Well, one thing that did make me think, and I have been think­ing about this for a while, is what the per­for­mance of a port­fo­lio would be if it bought the most recent new top of the buy list stock. And put it into a port­fo­lio. So in oth­er words, as soon as some­thing appears on the buy list, it goes into a port­fo­lio and how would that per­form?

[00:20:11] Tony: But I haven’t had a chance to do that kind of analy­sis, but that’s an inter­est­ing thing

[00:20:16] Tony: up because that’s how I try and iden­ti­fy pulled porks. I try and find a new stock on the buy list and prefer­ably it’s a large ADT stock on the buy list.

[00:20:25] Cameron: Hmm. Hmm. Well, that’s some­thing we can add to the regres­sion test­ing at some point. Be able to soft­wareize

[00:20:32] Cameron: that. I mean, I’ve got that, that, um, sheet now in the buy list each week, which has the buy list week to week. So I can run some code over that and just, um, grab stocks when they were added and then add them to the port­fo­lio on that date, find out what the price was and track it from there.

[00:20:48] Tony: Yeah. Do it going for­ward. Just get the first one or the largest ADT or some­thing or both.

[00:20:54] Cameron: Yeah, that thing does­n’t have the largest ADT. We don’t put the ADTs in the week to week list. Uh, well, speak­ing of FND, that was my next news sto­ry. Uh, I did reach out to the CEO of, uh, FND in the last week, Mr. Smed­ley, Nicholas Smed­ley, the chair­man, asked him, invit­ed him, uh, on the show. He did reach out to us a lit­tle while ago after we did the pull pork, you did the pull pork, um, said he’d be hap­py to come on, but he was going to India, Fol­lowed him up, haven’t heard any­thing.

[00:21:23] Cameron: But there was an arti­cle about them, April 15th, uh, yes­ter­day, in The Fin. Pay­ment provider Fin­di lands license for brand­ed ATMs in India. ASX list­ed pay­ment provider Fin­di, backed by Wil­son Asset Man­age­ment and the Flan­nery fam­i­ly, is set to gain a license. Enabling it to splash its name on thou­sands of brand­ed ATMs across India.

[00:21:47] Cameron: The fin­tech junior stock is up 430 per­cent over the past year and set­tled at 3. 20, earn­ing it a 168 mil­lion mar­ket cap before it went into a trad­ing halt on April 11th. The mar­ket is start­ing to under­stand the oppor­tu­ni­ty we have in India, Nicholas Smed­ley, Find­i’s Chair­man, said. We have sig­nif­i­cant Aus­tralian based funds invest­ing in the com­pa­ny.

[00:22:10] Cameron: What do you see as the, uh, upside of them hav­ing their names on ATMs in India, Tony?

[00:22:16] Tony: Yeah. Well, it, um, it could mean a lot. Uh, again, you know, the busi­ness mod­el I saw when I did a pulled pork was that India was ripe for mov­ing from a cash econ­o­my to a dig­i­tal econ­o­my. So that will help. It’ll be a huge brand­ing exer­cise for them. But also too, if those ATMs are going into retail­ers, um, Fin­di did have a cou­ple of cas­es where, you know, they were putting mon­ey into the retail to smarten up its shop.

[00:22:44] Tony: So that’s, um, that’s a good loy­al­ty exer­cise, I would have thought, for hav­ing Fin­di brand­ing. on bet­ter look­ing stores in the oth­er retail out­lets and then hav­ing an ATM in that store or near­by, um, would be a real­ly strong first mover net­work through India. So I think it’s a good thing.

[00:23:04] Cameron: Hmm. Well, I haven’t looked at what the mar­ket has done since this announce­ment came out.

[00:23:12] Tony: Uh, it’s in the trad­ing hold, isn’t

[00:23:13] Tony: it? Did­n’t you

[00:23:14] Tony: say?

[00:23:15] Cameron: well it was, is it still in?

[00:23:16] Tony: I’m not

[00:23:17] Tony: sure.

[00:23:18] Cameron: I don’t know. Ah, shares col­lapsed today, so no.

[00:23:23] Tony: They col­lapsed. Why? What

[00:23:24] Tony: hap­pened?

[00:23:25] Cameron: Yeah, I don’t know. The shares were trad­ing at 3. 36 on the 8th of April. As of today they’ve col­lapsed down to 2. 46.

[00:23:35] Tony: a big drop. Did they come out of the trad­ing hold

[00:23:37] Tony: today? Did they?

[00:23:39] Cameron: Ah, it looks like it too, yes. No? I don’t know, I’m look­ing at 9th, 10th 15th. 12th. Yeah, 15th. Yes­ter­day they came out­ta the trad­ing halt

[00:23:52] Tony: right.

[00:23:53] Cameron: then prompt­ly col­lapsed this morn­ing down to $2 46, back up to $2 76 as of two 30 this after­noon. But, um,

[00:24:04] Tony: the mar­ket does­n’t agree with me about brand­ing ATMs in India.

[00:24:11] Tony: Uh, Yeah. Edit this one out, Cam, next week. I want to put in that I think it’s a ter­ri­ble idea that they put their brand on

[00:24:18] Tony: ATMs in

[00:24:19] Tony: India.

[00:24:22] Cameron: I’m just, uh, going to Stock Doc­tor’s announce­ments to see if there’s any­thing else that

[00:24:28] Tony: No,

[00:24:29] Cameron: the last announce­ment is Fin­di grant­ed white label APTM license. Mar­ket did not like that. Or maybe it was just prof­it tak­ing. Maybe peo­ple were just like, you beau­ty,

[00:24:39] Tony: it could be.

[00:24:40] Cameron: time to get out.

[00:24:41] Cameron: Who

[00:24:41] Tony: And the mar­ket’s hav­ing

[00:24:42] Cameron: And look, the mar­ket’s tak­en a

[00:24:43] Cameron: hit of it. Yeah. But Find­i’s down 12%. Mar­ket’s down 2%. It’s down

[00:24:49] Cameron: 12%. So a lit­tle bit more than mar­ket relat­ed issues, but maybe peo­ple were tak­ing some prof­it from that to pay off oth­er prob­lems. Who knows?

[00:25:00] Tony: Yeah, well, hope­ful­ly Daniel will come on and tell us all about it.

[00:25:04] Cameron: Nicholas

[00:25:05] Tony: sor­ry.

[00:25:05] Tony: Yes.

[00:25:06] Cameron: even. I’m look­ing at their ADT, 500, 000. So it’s not big, but it’s not tiny either.

[00:25:18] Tony: It’s a lot big­ger than it was.

[00:25:21] Cameron: Hmm. Uh, the only oth­er news that I have this week, Tony, is Vic­tor at Stock Doc­tor got back to me and said they fixed the URW num­bers. This was yes­ter­day before the buy list went out. Um, No, after the buy list went out, sor­ry, I did­n’t real­ly look to see where U if URW was still on it, but, um, I did, he said they’ve,

[00:25:46] Cameron: they’ve cor­rect­ed the shares on issue. One of our lis­ten­ers picked up that that was wrong again. Um, I did ask him if they could maybe make a note in their diaries to review it the next time their results come out. So, uh, our lis­ten­ers don’t need to do their, uh. Detec­tive work for them. So, uh, he has­n’t replied back to that yet, but we’ll see what he said.

[00:26:10] Cameron: Could you do your job, please? Uh, thanks. That’d be great. That’s all my talk­ing points for today, TK. What do you got?

[00:26:22] Tony: A cou­ple of things. I had a love­ly vis­it to Bel­main to talk with Phil Mus­catel­lo on shares for begin­ners about takeovers. So that was an inter­est­ing con­ver­sa­tion. We went over ASB again, which we did as a pull, I did as a pull pork a cou­ple of weeks ago. Talked about APM, anoth­er com­pa­ny that’s been tak­en over and then just talked about takeovers in gen­er­al and the dif­fer­ent, Two dif­fer­ent types, basi­cal­ly, the hos­tile bid and the scheme of arrange­ment.

[00:26:48] Tony: So if any­one’s inter­est­ed in learn­ing more about that, then they can lis­ten to Shares for Begin­ners, which, uh, if

[00:26:53] Tony: it’s not up yet, it’ll

[00:26:53] Tony: be up soon with me on it.

[00:26:55] Cameron: Your last time, prob­a­bly, because Phil’s mov­ing to sun­ny

[00:26:59] Tony: he is. He’s going up to the Sun­shine Coast. He was busy with painters in his place. Doing an upgrade, an update before his, um, sale process.

[00:27:07] Tony: So I com­mis­er­at­ed with him on that. Cause I know how dif­fi­cult it is prepar­ing some­thing for sale. Yeah. But look, um, he said he’d come back to Syd­ney a lot. Uh, and, uh, of course we can always do Zoom inter­views going for­ward. So I doubt if it’s the last time I talked to Phil,

[00:27:23] Tony: but it was

[00:27:23] Cameron: What else you got?

[00:27:24] Tony: Uh, I’ve got a cou­ple of, we talked before about the pulled port­fo­lio, but a cou­ple of oth­er ones. Last week I talked about Buf­fett stocks on the ASX and pulled out a cou­ple of sug­ges­tions that may have met War­ren Buf­fet­t’s cri­te­ria for com­pa­nies that had a moat and a strong brand that could raise prices through the cycle.

[00:27:48] Tony: And we talked about the super­mar­kets and the banks and the insur­ance com­pa­nies. So I went back to 2006 and pulled out Wool­worths ANZ, NAB. West­pac, CBA, QBE, and IAG. I could­n’t do Coles because back then it was CML and then it was West Farm­ers and then it was Coles when it relist­ed, so it was a bit dif­fi­cult to work my way through all that.

[00:28:09] Tony: But tak­ing the oth­er ones, um, what was clear to me is that the tag­ger on the growth in the cap­i­tal for those stocks was almost non exis­tent over that time. Um, But they did per­form at about 5 per­cent if you added div­i­dends in. And I did a bit of a fudge to work out what the div­i­dend pay­ments were over the years because they vary.

[00:28:31] Tony: So I took an aver­age and used that. But yeah, so I think you said CAGR over that time peri­od when you were doing the regres­sion test was about 2%. And this group of stocks had a 5 per­cent CAGR when you includ­ed div­i­dends. It was hard to cal­cu­late the CAGR with­out it because it was almost zero, basi­cal­ly.

[00:28:51] Tony: Com­mon­wealth Bank did real­ly well, went from 45 up to 111, but, uh, Nation­al Aus­tralia Bank has gone back­wards over that time and so has QBE. So, um, bug­ger all CAGR from the group, uh, over that 18 year peri­od, But when you added in the good div­i­dends they pay, it was about 5 per­cent over that peri­od, ver­sus 2 per­cent in the mar­ket.

[00:29:14] Tony: So it was, as Berk­shire Hath­away does, per­form­ing at, you know, dou­ble mar­ket. Um,

[00:29:20] Cameron: Hmm.

[00:29:20] Tony: uh, as a buy and hold strat­e­gy, I guess that’s good, but 5 per­cent CAGR over that time peri­od isn’t great com­pared to, uh, more active­ly man­aged process­es like QAV.

[00:29:33] Cameron: Yeah. Well, based on some of the results that I got from Mat­t’s sys­tem,

[00:29:38] Tony: and my expe­ri­ence too, over that time peri­od.

[00:29:40] Cameron: 12%, 14%. Yeah.

[00:29:43] Tony: One oth­er one I’ve been track­ing for a while since, uh, Octo­ber last year, uh, I call it the bil­lion­aire’s dum­my port­fo­lio. So when, um, when the rich list came out, I sat down and looked at the rich list and then worked out which com­pa­nies were behind each, uh, indi­vid­ual who was on that list and put them into a port­fo­lio.

[00:30:05] Tony: And, uh, Mar­ket weight­ed the port­fo­lio and cut it off at 10 stocks, which was about 75 per­cent of the mar­ket cap of the entire port­fo­lio, because it was about, I think there’s 200 peo­ple on the rich list. And, um, some of their com­pa­nies were quite small, so it was­n’t worth includ­ing them. So the top 10 stocks were account­ed for 75 per­cent of the mar­ket cap.

[00:30:26] Tony: So com­pa­nies like Fortes­cue Met­als and, um, Min­er­al Resources. Some of them, of course, are unlist­ed like, uh, uh, Gina Han­cocks. Gina Rein­hart, sor­ry, port­fo­lios. Um, but that, that port­fo­lio, again, just buy and hold, did­n’t try and trade it using three PTLs. That port­fo­lio is just beat­ing the mar­ket. So it’s up 12 per­cent ver­sus STW at 10%.

[00:30:49] Tony: Um, again, that, that 12 per­cent does­n’t include div­i­dends. So it’s doing slight­ly bet­ter than that. Uh, stocks like, um, Fortes­cue Met­als and Good­man Group was the best per­former, uh, large­ly on the back of its data cen­ter. Net­work that it’s get­ting into, uh, and then some poor per­for­mance, which, which is still on the port­fo­lio.

[00:31:09] Tony: I did­n’t take out Lion­stown Resources was down a lot as was Domi­no’s Piz­za. So I just like, you know, get these thoughts from time to time and decide to have a crack and see if it Pays off and it did, it beat, it beats the mar­ket. My plan was to rotate the shares when the new Rich List comes out. So, um, I’ll see how that port­fo­lio is track­ing then.

[00:31:30] Tony: And if it’s, it’s still above mar­ket, maybe I’ll do that and just see going for­ward, whether this is a, um, not a bad way of beat­ing the mar­ket with very

[00:31:38] Tony: lit­tle effort.

[00:31:39] Cameron: So you’re putting that just down to the amount of con­trol and incen­tive these peo­ple have in the per­for­mance of the com­pa­ny?

[00:31:48] Tony: Look, I think that’s a high­ly like­ly fac­tor, big con­tribut­ing fac­tor, that these are pret­ty much own­er founder stocks, um, I think they prob­a­bly all are, uh, so that’s got to be a fac­tor. It was more just the thought that if these peo­ple are so suc­cess­ful they’re on, you know, the list of Aus­trali­a’s rich­est peo­ple, then their com­pa­ny should be doing well as well.

[00:32:11] Tony: And should be beat­ing the mar­ket. Some are, some aren’t. We could prob­a­bly get a bet­ter return if I could be both­ered three point trend­line trad­ing it, but did­n’t have the time or incli­na­tion to do that. So it’s a sim­ple buy and hold strat­e­gy for these.

[00:32:25] Cameron: Yeah. Very

[00:32:28] Tony: Yeah. I like look­ing at things like that, um, just to see if I can beat the mar­ket with­out too much work. And, uh, I’d encour­age lis­ten­ers to pick it up and run with it or think of oth­er ways to do it. Cause it’s, um, uh, if you can do that, it’s even less work than QAV for a decent sort of return.

[00:32:45] Tony: Not a bad way to invest.

[00:32:46] Cameron: What did you call it? The

[00:32:47] Tony: I call it the bil­lion­aire dum­my port­fo­lio,

[00:32:52] Tony: for want of a bet­ter head­line.

[00:32:54] Cameron: The BDP.

[00:32:56] Tony: uh, so that’s all I’ve got. The last thing I’ve got to talk about, that’s the last news I’ve got, the last thing I’ve got to talk about is a pulled pork on a com­pa­ny called the Res­olute Min­ing,

[00:33:04] Tony: RSG.

[00:33:05] Cameron: RSG. What kind of min­ing is RSG,

[00:33:09] Tony: min­er. It’s a gold min­er in West Africa. So it’s, you can put it in the camp with Perseus and West African min­ing, which have been on the buy list as well for a long time. I think Res­olute may have just come back on soon. Oh, I’m sor­ry, late­ly. And it’s way down the bot­tom com­pared to the oth­er two.

[00:33:29] Tony: Uh, but sim­i­lar sort of min­ing com­pa­ny. Res­olute Min­ing, inter­est­ing name. Uh, the share­hold­ers have had to be Res­olute over the years cause it’s, uh, it’s, it’s under new man­age­ment now after a peri­od of under­per­for­mance. So, uh, good, good name. And, and do you recall from the West Wing where HMAS Res­olute end­ed up, Cam?

[00:33:50] Cameron: No.

[00:33:51] Tony: It’s the, uh, Tim­ber was used to make the desk in the Oval Office for the Pres­i­dent,

[00:33:57] Cameron: Ah,

[00:33:58] Tony: Desk, any­way, bit of triv­ia on Res­olute, I don’t know if it takes its name from the Res­olute Desk or HMS Res­olute, or HMS Res­olute, I should say, sor­ry, it was a British ship, but Res­olute Min­ing, uh, what else can I say about it?

[00:34:10] Tony: Uh, I think it’s time­ly that there’s a gold min­er on our buy list because the gold price is going up. And it’s been going up for a long time, but, you know, with the war in Ukraine and infla­tion and COVID, all those kinds of things have con­tributed to the gold price going up. But, uh, it’s, you know, in the last week or so with the unrest in the Mid­dle East, it’s tak­en a bit of an upturn.

[00:34:32] Tony: So it’s, it’s prob­a­bly time­ly to have a look at a gold min­er. Uh, Res­olute itself has been going for more than 30 years and, uh, they claim to have oper­at­ed 10 gold mines over that time. Uh, only two of which remain. And one called SIAMA, S Y A M A, in Mali, and MAKO, M A K O, in Sene­gal. The com­pa­ny is now dual list­ed on the ASX and the Lon­don Stock Exchange.

[00:34:58] Tony: It’s based in Perth, but it has shift­ed some back office func­tions to Lon­don, as I think they’re get­ting tired get­ting up in the mid­dle of the night to talk to peo­ple in Africa. So, Lon­don’s clos­er to the peo­ple. Time­Zone in West Africa, which they see as a ben­e­fit. Both of those two mines are ful­ly oper­a­tional and mature, and there is a lot of near­by explo­ration going on and drilling, because one of them at least is get­ting closed with­in a cou­ple of years to the end of its mine life, so they’ll want to find some strikes to extend that mine.

[00:35:29] Tony: RSG is also explor­ing in Guinea, anoth­er near­by I’m going to read, um, pret­ty much the rest of this analy­sis from a real­ly good arti­cle I picked up, uh, from a web­site called Investors Chron­i­cle, uh, which is a UK web­site. And it’s about RSG. The head­line is this back to basics min­er is about to bounce. This is, this is about three weeks old, March 21, 2024.

[00:36:00] Tony: Uh, it starts off with the, the mot­to, mine gold, cre­ate val­ue. Which used to be the mot­to of, uh, RSG, and now a new man­age­ment team will do just that. Uh, Res­olute’s, Res­olute Min­ing’s mot­to used to be mine gold, cre­ate val­ue, but for sev­er­al years it did lit­tle to be done. A new man­age­ment team has torn up the more ambi­tious ideas of the pre­vi­ous board, how­ev­er, and earn­ings now look as though they’re about to bounce.

[00:36:27] Tony: A slim­mer, more effec­tive, and less risky min­ing com­pa­ny is also emerg­ing. Before Res­olute list­ed, uh, in Lon­don in 2019. Adding to its pri­ma­ry Aus­tralian list­ing, it had an expan­sion­ist approach across West Africa and a lega­cy mine in its home coun­try. Trou­bles with pro­cess­ing and get­ting con­sis­tent grades of ore out of the ground pushed the share price down between 2020 and 2023.

[00:36:51] Tony: Things are turn­ing around, how­ev­er. It now has only a hand­ful of ear­ly stage explo­ration projects and two oper­at­ing mines, the ones I spoke about. The com­pa­ny Prun­ing has includ­ed sell­ing one mine, Bib­biani, for 90 mil­lion, which the pre­vi­ous chief exec­u­tive, John Well­born, had said in 2018, would be was like­ly to pro­duce 10 years, with the all in cost of just 765 per ounce.

[00:37:16] Tony: Four years lat­er, the mine was for sale, so much for the key growth asset ini­tial­ly pitched to share­hold­ers. The new man­age­ment team has also spent near­ly three years rework­ing the Siema plant and par­ing back some of their grander ambi­tions of the mine. Richard Hatch, a com­men­ta­tor from Beren­berg, said last month that the com­pa­ny had com­plet­ed a suc­cess­ful turn­around with room to grow.

[00:37:39] Tony: He pre­dict­ed that the 2024 would lift the EBITDA mar­gin from 26 per­cent to 32 per­cent and he sees it climb­ing again in 2025 to 38%. A turn­around sug­gests you might end up going back where you came from. But the Res­olute boss­es have plen­ty to keep them occu­pied for the next few years. The cur­rent ore bod­ies at Sia­ma and Mako do not have long left, so min­ing will have to shift to new areas near­by to keep pro­duc­tion going.

[00:38:06] Tony: In terms of gold resources, Sia­ma is on firm foot­ing. Res­olute has already defined a resource of 2. 7 mil­lion ounces at the Sia­ma North site. This ore body is shal­low­er than the cur­rent sul­phide ore going into the larg­er plant, and so will be mined with an open pit. The over­all objec­tive is to increase the pro­duc­tion pro­file of CIAMA to over 250, 000 ounces per annum and reduce the cost pro­file by up to 200 an ounce, the com­pa­ny said.

[00:38:31] Tony: The CIAMA under­ground min­er­al reserves are still at 2. 4 mil­lion ounces, so there are plen­ty of years left, plen­ty of years for pro­duc­tion. left there. The sit­u­a­tion at the Mako mine is more uncer­tain. Mako has just two and a half years left from the cur­rent ore body and needs more to stay in oper­a­tion.

[00:38:48] Tony: Hol­la­han, who’s the CEO, said it was a three horse race for which satel­lite ore body is going to feed into the plant next. The lead­ing can­di­date, Tom Boron Koto has a resource of just 403, 000 ounces, all 4 years of pro­duc­tion at the cur­rent capac­i­ty, but explo­ration con­tin­ues. But for Res­olute to get beyond half a mil­lion ounces, it will need to build out one or more of its explo­ration prop­er­ties, a seri­ous invest­ment.

[00:39:14] Tony: To con­tin­ue the geo­graph­ic spread, its key pre rev­enue projects are not in Mali or Sene­gal, but in Guinea. Clos­est to turn­ing into a mind is Mansala, in the north of the coun­try, a first esti­mate of the con­tained gold is expect­ed in com­ing months. This is where the com­pa­ny has to watch its step, build­ing up new oper­a­tions is dif­fi­cult and res­olute share­hold­ers have already been burned once by man­age­ment look­ing for sig­nif­i­cant growth and load­ing up the bal­ance sheet.

[00:39:39] Tony: But the base is sta­ble and the high gold price means the near term work, such as expand­ing the Scia­ma plant, can come to fruition. This should be the moment investors get back into the com­pa­ny. Buy­ing into a com­pa­ny at 5x for­ward earn­ings that offer over 300, 000oz a year with falling costs is a gold­en oppor­tu­ni­ty.

[00:39:58] Tony: I should add, no pun intend­ed. A gold min­er with a gold­en oppor­tu­ni­ty. So,

[00:40:04] Tony: that’s,

[00:40:04] Cameron: think that was delib­er­ate­ly

[00:40:05] Tony: yeah, those, who ever said finan­cial ana­lysts don’t like to have fun? So that was, that’s the sto­ry behind this. It’s, um, how to check a career, two mines left, bit of explo­ration, um, costs are down, look­ing good with the gold price ris­ing.

[00:40:22] Tony: That’s the sum­ma­ry. The num­bers, uh, to go through those, it’s a large ADT stock, 2. 4 mil­lion trad­ed per day in Aus­tralia. I’m doing my analy­sis of the price of, uh, gold. 49. 5 cents, which is less than con­sen­sus tar­get. Uh, and it’s, it’s around about IV1 of 51 cents and, uh, uh, and just above IV2 of 45 cents, uh, has 0 per­cent yield.

[00:40:48] Tony: So it’s not pay­ing a div­i­dend. Uh, because it’s try­ing to explore to con­tin­ue to increase the exist­ing mine loss where it is, uh, Finan­cial Health and Stock Doc­tor and Trend are strong and steady. Brad Ban­duc­ci, you’ll be inter­est­ed to know the ROE is 27. 8 per­cent in this com­pa­ny, or maybe he won’t be. Uh, he’d prob­a­bly stick with Wool­worths where it’s 30.

[00:41:11] Tony: PE is 4. 94 times. Uh, it’s the low­est, um, in the last three years, but we’ve only got two. Uh, because it had­n’t made any mon­ey in the major­i­ty of the last three years, but it scores for that. Prop­Caf is 5. 88 times, so that’s pret­ty good. Uh, net equi­ty per share is 39 cents, so book plus 30 is 51 cents, and the share price is under that at 49 and a half, so it scores for that.

[00:41:36] Tony: Now, Stock Doc­tor has earn­ings per share growth as minus 54 per­cent, but that does­n’t gel with, uh, Both the com­ments from the com­pa­ny I researched today and that last bit of analy­sis from Beren­berg, which just talked about EBITDA going up. So I think that might be out of date, how­ev­er, I’ve tak­en that point off it for neg­a­tive earn­ings per share growth.

[00:41:58] Tony: Uh, there’s no own­er founder, the new man­age­ment have tak­en over, but no one’s got a sig­nif­i­cant hold­ing in the com­pa­ny them­selves. So we can’t score it for that. There is a new three point upturn, so the com­pa­ny is turn­ing around from a sen­ti­ment point of view. It has­n’t had increas­ing equi­ty con­sis­tent­ly, so we can’t score it for that.

[00:42:17] Tony: So, all in all, the com­pa­ny gets a qual­i­ty score of 10 items out of 16, 63 per­cent for qual­i­ty, and a QAV score of 0. 11. So it’s towards the bot­tom of the buy list. And I guess, um, I can rehash some of the pros and cons from the investor and that invest­ment analy­sis I read. It’s a turn­around, so its finan­cials are improv­ing.

[00:42:40] Tony: It’s under new man­age­ment. Its costs are com­ing down. They’ve sold assets, which has reduced debt and the gold price is strong. So that’s the pros for invest­ing in this com­pa­ny. The cons, the mine life at Myer, if they can’t find some­where else to expand to, might be an issue for them. And the flip side is suc­cess­ful explo­ration may lead to a fundraise.

[00:43:03] Tony: So if they do find, if they do find gold in Guinea, then they may have to, uh, raise that either with more debt or by ask­ing share­hold­ers to pony up. And I guess the flip side of that is if they do have, if they don’t find gold in Guinea, then it might be even more prob­lem­at­ic for the com­pa­ny and its growth pro­file going for­ward.

[00:43:21] Tony: So it’s a two edged sword with that one, but that’s, that’s def­i­nite­ly one to watch what hap­pens with that.

[00:43:26] Tony: So that’s Res­olute. Be Res­olute.

[00:43:30] Cameron: they’re a turn­around. Every now and then they get a lit­tle bit lone­ly. Cause they nev­er come around. Turn around every now and then I get a lit­tle bit tired of lis­ten­ing to the sound of my tears. Every now and then I get a lit­tle bit ner­vous that the best of all the years have gone by. Turn around every now and then I get a lit­tle bit ter­ri­fied, but then I see the look in your eyes.

[00:43:58] Cameron: Bright eyes. Every time I feel like I’m gonna fall apart. Oh, I love that song.

[00:44:07] Tony: Very good. Every now and then I get a lit­tle bit tired too, but, uh, that’s for a dif­fer­ent rea­son.

[00:44:11] Cameron: You know who wrote that song?

[00:44:13] Tony: Uh, total eclipse of the halves. Is that Bon­nie? I was going to say

[00:44:16] Tony: Bon­nie Wright, but

[00:44:16] Tony: it’s Bon­nie Tyler. Yeah,

[00:44:19] Cameron: Well, she per­formed it, but do you know who wrote it?

[00:44:22] Tony: I do not.

[00:44:24] Cameron: The great­est song­writer of the 20th

[00:44:28] Tony: David Lee Roth.

[00:44:33] Cameron: It’d be so fun­ny if that was a David Lee Roth song. No, Jim Stein­man.

[00:44:39] Tony: right. Okay. Yeah, it

[00:44:42] Cameron: I mean, it’s clas­sic Jim

[00:44:43] Cameron: Stein­man. So yeah.

[00:44:46] Tony: does­n’t it?

[00:44:48] Cameron: So out­side of Meat­loaf, the big hits that he had were Total Eclipse of the Heart for Bon­nie Tyler and Air Sup­ply’s Mak­ing Love Out of Noth­ing at All.

[00:44:59] Tony: Ah.

[00:45:00] Cameron: And they’re both like, you know, total Jim Stein­man y songs.

[00:45:05] Cameron: Big, oper­at­ic, melo­dra­mat­ic, rock opera. Love it.

[00:45:12] Cameron: Always want­ed to, uh, inter­view Jim Stein­man. He passed away 2021, sad­ly. Uh, nev­er got to, nev­er got to inter­view him, but like, uh, yeah, man. It’s one of my favorites. He’s, he put out a solo album, late 70s, ear­ly 80s, very, not very well known, um, called Bad For Good.

[00:45:36] Cameron: You ever heard

[00:45:37] Tony: I haven’t. I do recall him, vague­ly recall see­ing a film clip back in the 70s or 80s with him at the piano. Did he have sort of a glam rock sort of out­fit on when he

[00:45:47] Tony: was doing it? Yeah.

[00:45:49] Cameron: Oh, he was yeah, he was very glam. He’s like, dude, he wrote the songs for Meat­loaf. What are you expect­ing? He’s like,

[00:45:55] Tony: ha. Ah.

[00:45:57] Cameron: but yeah, I think at one point, um, He and Meat­loaf had fall­en out or Meat­loaf was not avail­able or some­thing. So he did this album, Bad For Good, and he sang all of the vocals and, um, him­self and he’s not Meat­loaf, but, um, it’s one of my favorite albums.

[00:46:14] Cameron: And it’s one of those albums that like, I’m, I’m the, I know one oth­er guy

[00:46:17] Tony: Ha ha.

[00:46:18] Cameron: that I used to come to my events down

[00:46:19] Cameron: there who was anoth­er big fan. But yeah, yeah. You, if you like that kind, if you’re a big Meat­loaf fan, then first of all, God bless you.

[00:46:27] Tony: Ha ha. What

[00:46:30] Cameron: Bad For Good.

[00:46:30] Cameron: If you’ve. Nev­er checked that out. It’s a clas­sic. Came on, I was in the car with Fox yes­ter­day and it came on and I start­ed singing it at the top of my voice and you did­n’t know what the hell was going on.

[00:46:42] Tony: did he say? Every now and then I feel a lit­tle bit tired. Turn it down. I mean turn around.

[00:46:51] Cameron: Turn around and let me out this car. I can’t stand you singing. Well, that’s it. No

[00:47:00] Tony: Yeah, where are the ques­tions? Come on.

[00:47:02] Cameron: week too.

[00:47:03] Tony: We took that, well, we took that one with­out notice from Brad Ban­duc­chi. What is ROE? Does that count?

[00:47:12] Cameron: Yeah. If Brad’s got any oth­er ques­tions for the show next week, um, let us

[00:47:16] Cameron: know. Or if the, uh, green Sen­a­tor wants to ask us any ques­tions.

[00:47:21] Tony: can turn up and talk about super­mar­kets, can’t we? To the

[00:47:25] Tony: esti­mate. And now we have in the green cham­ber, uh, Bar­ry and Stan

[00:47:29] Tony: answer­ing ques­tions on ROE.

[00:47:31] Cameron: Yeah. Like, like Roy and HG doing live instead of the,

[00:47:36] Tony: Yes. Yes.

[00:47:36] Cameron: the rug­by finals. Yeah. We’re just doing

[00:47:39] Cameron: com­men­tary on the super­mar­kets inquiry in the Sen­ate. Uh, Tony, no one knows more about retail, uh, return on equi­ty, the new Tony.

[00:47:51] Tony: Yes. Yes.

[00:47:52] Cameron: cam, I remem­ber

[00:47:53] Tony: you. Thank you, Cam. Well,

[00:47:55] Cameron: when I

[00:47:55] Cameron: was,

[00:47:56] Cameron: uh,

[00:47:56] Tony: That was, I was out, uh, Gos­ford way, I think. I went to the track to see Root­ing King run in the mile, the Gos­ford mile. On the way back, I thought, I’ll reward him with a bunch of car­rots from Wool­worths. And, you know what I found, Cam? I could­n’t believe it. Do you know how much car­rots are in Gos­ford at Wool­worths?

[00:48:28] Cameron: What else you been up to, Tony? What’s after hours been for you this week?

[00:48:31] Tony: Oh, after hours. Yeah. Watch­ing the US Mas­ters, which was a lot of fun. Great to, uh, to, to watch the play­ers nego­ti­ate the course and know how hard it is after being there, how steep it is. Um, where, you know, where all the mis­takes can be made. It was a real­ly good tour­na­ment. And they, um, they had to deal with a lot of heavy winds, so it’s always good to see pro golfers strug­gle a bit.

[00:48:55] Tony: Just like, brings them back down to earth. But that was good fun.

[00:48:59] Cameron: Just a lot of fart­ing going on, on

[00:49:01] Tony: Not that kind of win. No, a lot of smok­ing. I mean, that’s one thing that struck me when I was over there. A lot of guys smok­ing cig­ars and girls smok­ing cig­ars in the crowds. It’s out­doors. So it does­n’t real­ly mat­ter, but you would­n’t see that at a golf tour­na­ment in Aus­tralia. I

[00:49:15] Tony: would­n’t think, yeah,

[00:49:17] Cameron: no, not allowed to smoke on a golf course in Aus­tralia.

[00:49:20] Tony: actu­al­ly you’re not, no, which is more about bush­fires and any­thing, but, um, not the case in Amer­i­ca. So that was good. I actu­al­ly had a bet on the guy who ran sec­ond, a young chap from Swe­den called Lud­wig Eiberg, who, um. I think it’s going to be the next sen­sa­tion in golf and I put a bet on at the end of last year when he turned pro at 50 to 1.

[00:49:44] Tony: So I was stand­ing to make a bit of mon­ey but he ran sec­ond unfor­tu­nate­ly. But, incred­i­ble per­for­mance, first time ever in a big tour­na­ment, or in the major any­way, and ran sec­ond, so he’s got a bright future.

[00:49:56] Cameron: Hmm.

[00:49:57] Tony: So that was the US Mas­ters. I went to the races on Sat­ur­day, big race day in Syd­ney, and there was a horse there which again did some­thing for the his­to­ry books, if any­one’s inter­est­ed in horse rac­ing and has­n’t heard about Pride of Jen­ny.

[00:50:10] Tony: Not my Jen­ny, but J E N N I. It had a, an amaz­ing win, um, in the big race, uh, the Queen Eliz­a­beth Stakes. Uh, it, it went to the front and went hard and was lead­ing by about 20 lengths and, um, held on to still win by a sig­nif­i­cant mar­gin at the end, some­thing you don’t see in horse rac­ing every day. So that was a, one for the books.

[00:50:31] Tony: I’ll still be talk­ing about that in a long time in the future, that race.

[00:50:36] Cameron: Wow.

[00:50:36] Tony: Yeah. So two sport­ing

[00:50:38] Cameron: And don’t you have a,

[00:50:39] Cameron: you got a horse run­ning this

[00:50:40] Tony: I do, and the Groneys runs on Thurs­day at Race 1 in Hawkes­bury. Up there in Gos­ford area. , I’m not quite Gos­ford, but Yeah. Might, might bump into Roy and

[00:50:50] Tony: Hsg.

[00:50:52] Cameron: Chair­man Mabb? Got a piece

[00:50:54] Tony: he?

[00:50:54] Tony: does. He likes a Negroni. He’s got, he’s got some, he’s got a share in Negro­nis. Yes. And Negroni’s. Uh, half sis­ter won the blue dia­mond steaks. So Negroni’s half sis­ter is called Hay Sugi. And um, we are hop­ing that Negro­nis can per­form half as well as, uh, the younger sis­ter. And get some, get some prize mon­ey for us.

[00:51:15] Tony: But just the fact that her sis­ter won a group one means she’s valu­able as a brood­mare when we decide to stop rac­ing with her.

[00:51:23] Cameron: Hmm. Good

[00:51:25] Tony: Yeah, thank you.

[00:51:25] Cameron: And tell me about the lux­u­ry

[00:51:27] Cameron: strat­e­gy.

[00:51:27] Tony: Book I start­ed read­ing on the week­end, Lux­u­ry Strat­e­gy, by two chaps called Kapfer­er and Bastien, who I believe worked in the, one of the lux­u­ry hous­es in Europe, and they’re writ­ing a book about lux­u­ry strat­e­gy, which seems very dry. It’s all about, you know, how to mar­ket prod­ucts in the lux­u­ry cat­e­go­ry, and what the secrets are behind Her­mes, and Bris­tol, and those kinds of things, and Ver­sace, and all that.

[00:51:50] Tony: But, um, Real­ly got me in. The first chap­ter was real­ly inter­est­ing about the his­to­ry of lux­u­ry and how reli­gions played a part of that and how pow­ers played a part of that and, and strat­i­fi­ca­tion of soci­eties played a part of that. So I’ve real­ly gone into the, the anthro­pol­o­gy of, of lux­u­ry, which is an inter­est­ing open­ing chap­ter.

[00:52:09] Tony: So yeah, inter­est­ing

[00:52:10] Tony: read.

[00:52:11] Cameron: Some­thing, some­thing that we can apply to mar­ket­ing QAV.

[00:52:14] Tony: I always, I always try and turn it to that care. So if I come up with an insight, you’ll be the first to know.

[00:52:21] Tony: Yeah.

[00:52:22] Cameron: lux­u­ry strat­e­gy. I like that. Yeah,

[00:52:26] Tony: Yeah.

[00:52:27] Cameron: very good. Well, I’ve done very lit­tle this week. I’m still read­ing my biog­ra­phy on Dong Xiaop­ing. Learned about the guy that was sat between him and Mao, the guy who was the chair­man of the par­ty between him and Mao, which I’d nev­er, who I’d nev­er heard of before, Hua Guofeng.

[00:52:47] Cameron: He was appoint­ed to be Mao’s suc­ces­sor just before Mao died in, uh, 76?

[00:52:54] Tony: Who’s on the phone?

[00:52:55] Cameron: Yeah.

[00:52:56] Tony: Who’s on the

[00:52:57] Tony: phone?

[00:52:58] Cameron: Who? Hua. Hua. Hua. Guofeng.

[00:53:02] Cameron: He did­n’t, did­n’t last very long. He was the chair­man, um, of the par­ty, but from Octo­ber 76 to June 81, when, um, Dong took over, but Dong was sort of You know, Vice Pre­mier, I think, for, from about 79 onwards.

[00:53:20] Cameron: But this guy, accord­ing to the book I’m read­ing, this guy, you know, deserves a bit of the cred­it for turn­ing, um, Chi­na around. The first thing that he did, lit­er­al­ly, day three after Mao died, was arrest the Gang of Four. Who I did­n’t know a lot about. I’d heard of them, but did­n’t know a lot about the Gang of Four.

[00:53:37] Cameron: So

[00:53:38] Tony: Punk group

[00:53:39] Cameron: a lot about

[00:53:39] Tony: 70s.

[00:53:41] Cameron: Yes. I actu­al­ly, one of their songs came on Spo­ti­fy yes­ter­day too. I was going to use it as my song of the week, but, uh, I could­n’t fig­ure out how to make it fit.

[00:53:52] Cameron: But, uh,

[00:53:54] Cameron: now the Gang of Four, uh, for peo­ple who don’t know in, in Chi­na dur­ing Mao’s last cou­ple of decades was his wife.

[00:54:03] Cameron: And three oth­er guys who were sort of the head of the pro­pa­gan­da depart­ment that were real­ly sup­port­ing, uh, the Great Leap For­ward and the Cul­tur­al Rev­o­lu­tion and attack­ing any­one who was seen to be crit­i­cal of either of those things, uh, includ­ing Dong. And they were like, Mao’s wife was dead against Dong and, you know, con­sid­ered him a right­ist.

[00:54:29] Cameron: And anoth­er thing I did­n’t know is that, you know, from So the Dong, Cul­tur­al Rev­o­lu­tion, Dong was away for six or sev­en years, you know, sent out to the coun­try for labor, re edu­ca­tion. And then he came back for about 18 months and had a senior posi­tion and then they kicked him out again. He got removed again for a cou­ple of years because he was, he was refus­ing to sup­port the Cul­tur­al Rev­o­lu­tion ver­bal­ly.

[00:54:56] Cameron: He would not pub­licly endorse the Cul­tur­al Rev­o­lu­tion. Because, accord­ing to this book, he knew that Mabb was gonna die, and then he was gonna have to undo every­thing, and if he was, if he had pub­licly sup­port­ed it, he could­n’t pub­licly undo it all as being a huge bitch. They called him the Chi­nese Khrushchev and that was Mao’s big fear towards the end of his life is that when he was dead, they would undo every­thing that he’d done like Khrushchev did to Stal­in when he died in 53 and that he would be, um, his lega­cy would be destroyed.

[00:55:37] Cameron: So any­way, yeah, inter­est­ing. But this Hua Guofeng did also intro­duce some, um, eco­nom­ic reform a lit­tle bit. A lit­tle bit of for­eign invest­ment reform, a lit­tle bit of eco­nom­ic reform. Most­ly build­ing on the work that Dong had been try­ing to do before him though, but yeah. Inter­est­ing. That’s it. Watched anoth­er episode of, uh, the thing last night, the, um,

[00:56:02] Tony: Three

[00:56:03] Cameron: three body

[00:56:03] Tony: Yep.

[00:56:04] Cameron: eh,

[00:56:05] Cameron: yeah,

[00:56:06] Cameron: it’s okay, but again, eh, it’s mov­ing mov­ing too quick­ly, I

[00:56:11] Tony: Nah. Okay.

[00:56:13] Cameron: it. But it’s kind of Got to the bit last night where they basi­cal­ly, the cops or what­ev­er they are, infil­trat­ed the reli­gious meet­ing of the peo­ple and said, they were like, we’re going to be here in 400 years.

[00:56:33] Cameron: And every­one’s like, oh, real­ly?

[00:56:35] Cameron: 400 years? Oh, okay.

[00:56:37] Tony: And Jonathan Price is talk­ing to the AI.

[00:56:41] Cameron: Yes! Hmm. And does­n’t seem to know a lot

[00:56:46] Cameron: about them, con­sid­er­ing he’s been part of the cult for, I don’t know, 60 years or what­ev­er at this point.

[00:56:54] Tony: And is very secre­tive about them, too, which cements his pow­er.

[00:57:00] Cameron: Hmm. Any­who, I’m look­ing for­ward to them get­ting into the physics side of it, because I think that was the most inter­est­ing part

[00:57:08] Tony: Yeah, I think so,

[00:57:09] Cameron: this idea that high­ly advanced civ­i­liza­tions have a com­plete­ly dif­fer­ent, um, under­stand­ing of physics, like their under­stand­ing of physics com­pared to ours is like ours today com­pared to where our under­stand­ing of physics was 200 years ago.

[00:57:25] Cameron: Like it’s no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. It’s, there’s all these oth­er dimen­sions of physics that we haven’t even been able to unpick yet. And their abil­i­ty to manip­u­late the laws of physics, uh, as a result is way advanced. Any­way,

[00:57:39] Tony: That’s com­ing.

[00:57:40] Cameron: to see­ing how they do that.

[00:57:41] Tony: As is the nanofibers. That’s an

[00:57:43] Tony: inter­est­ing scene. I thought you’ll see it in the next

[00:57:45] Cameron: Yes, I’m look­ing for­ward to see­ing that. Yeah. Oh, the next episode already.

[00:57:49] Tony: I think it is Yeah.

[00:57:50] Cameron: quick­ly. Yeah. Um, I’m still doing my maths book, still doing the, um, AFSL stuff. Haven’t made a lot of progress. Did a lot of cod­ing this week. Uh, not with regres­sion test­ing, but try­ing to code, um, uh, a way of automat­ing, um, low­est PE and, uh, con­sis­tent­ly increas­ing

[00:58:17] Tony: Right.

[00:58:18] Cameron: into the buy list.

[00:58:21] Cameron: Did­n’t get very far. Um, kept hit­ting a lot of, a lot of hur­dles try­ing

[00:58:25] Tony: Right. Is that? Is that part of Matt Walk­er’s code for the regres­sion

[00:58:30] Tony: test­ing?

[00:58:31] Cameron: Uh, I think it is. Yeah. Let me, let me just see if that’s a thing. I’m begin­ning to check

[00:58:40] Tony: Yeah, so just copy and paste it if it is.

[00:58:44] Tony: Hope­ful­ly it is.

[00:58:45] Cameron: growth, high growth to PE, PE greater than yield, low­est PE,

[00:58:53] Cameron: no. Oh, hey, yes it is. Score record low PE. Yeah, it is. Um, equi­ty, equi­ty increas­ing. Yeah, it is. Yeah. Yeah. Yes. But, uh, his approach is a lit­tle bit dif­fer­ent to the approach that I’m try­ing to take for the buy list. Um, yeah, I’m try­ing to down­load it, you know, day by day, rather than using a pre exist­ing his­tor­i­cal data source that we can run over.

[00:59:25] Cameron: Any­way, um, it’s been one of those things where I start cod­ing some­thing and, um, You know, it’s always, it’s always, it’s always near­ly, near­ly work­ing. You know, you think, Oh, if I just tweak it one more time. Four days

[00:59:43] Tony: Yeah.

[00:59:45] Cameron: go, what the hell am I doing? I’ve spent four days try­ing to tweak this code, iter­a­tion 473, and I’m like, I’m almost there.

[00:59:52] Cameron: If I just, and I’ll be lying in bed at 1130 or mid­night and going, oh, if I just go, hold on, I’ll pull my lap­top out. I, if I just try this. No, that did­n’t work. I wan­na put, and then it’s like one 30 in the morn­ing. I’m like, okay, I, I should prob­a­bly turn it off

[01:00:08] Tony: Yeah. That’s the Pare­to Prin­ci­ples. What they used to drill us and drill into us at uni­ver­si­ty in com­put­er sci­ence was get your archi­tec­ture right, do the plans on paper first, and you won’t, you’ll elim­i­nate that last bug before you start

[01:00:20] Tony: cod­ing. But most peo­ple just

[01:00:24] Tony: pick up the lap­top and start cod­ing.

[01:00:25] Tony: They don’t think about

[01:00:26] Cameron: yeah,

[01:00:27] Tony: try­ing to do and how to plan it.

[01:00:29] Cameron: Well, the prob­lem is I, I, I, I would­n’t be able to plan it ’cause I dun­no what I’m doing. Right. I’m just going, Hey, GPT code this for me. No, now, no, no, no. I’m wait­ing to the tool. I, I, you know, I wish the tools were a lot bet­ter than they are, but, uh, they are where they are. Any­way,

[01:00:47] Tony: it’s a shame. I was look­ing for­ward to catch­ing up today and you were telling me that you’ve done some more regres­sion test­ing

[01:00:52] Tony: and have some more

[01:00:53] Tony: insights.

[01:00:54] Cameron: Hmm. I will stop cod­ing and I will get back to regres­sion test­ing this week. Yeah. See where I get

[01:01:01] Tony: Well, as long as the regres­sion test­ing is worth it. I mean, it’s no point doing it if

[01:01:04] Tony: we’re not sure it’s

[01:01:05] Tony: bug free yet.

[01:01:07] Cameron: Well, you know, and I think it’s not, I think, you know, the last I heard from Matt, and we should get him on the show and we can talk about it, but I think this, um, the Yahoo Finance pric­ing is prob­a­bly a bit of

[01:01:19] Tony: Okay.

[01:01:20] Cameron: um, weak link in the chain at the moment, so we have to, I reached out to Andre about get­ting hold of his code too, see­ing where that’s at, might be able to get his code, because he’s work­ing on regres­sion test­ing too.

[01:01:32] Tony: Yeah. Okay. Well, yeah, may or may not help, but maybe sug­gest to Matt that he gets the pric­ing infor­ma­tion the same way he gets all of the oth­er infor­ma­tion with­out men­tion­ing where he gets it from

[01:01:44] Tony: on air. Okay.

[01:01:45] Cameron: He’s got

[01:01:45] Cameron: that, but, uh, there, there are some prob­lems with that

[01:01:48] Cameron: too. But, um, any­way, yeah.

[01:01:52] Cameron: Any­hoo,

[01:01:54] Tony: Well, this has got to be our short­est episode for a long time, Cam.

[01:01:58] Cameron: Yeah, I know. You want to talk about some­thing else for a while?

[01:02:02] Tony: Well, we had that big long chat before­hand.

[01:02:05] Cameron: We

[01:02:05] Tony: We did, yeah.

[01:02:06] Cameron: We can talk about talk

[01:02:07] Cameron: about Iran and Israel,

[01:02:12] Tony: Yes.

[01:02:12] Cameron: the Iran and Israel thing. It,

[01:02:14] Cameron: you know, I’ve been read­ing a lot of the analy­sis on that all over the place on Red­dit, in the media. Um, it’s part­ly amus­ing and part­ly frus­trat­ing. To read a lot of this stuff. I mean, all of, you know, there’s a lot of dis­cus­sion of peo­ple say­ing, well, you know, Israel bombed their embassy in Syr­ia, so this is jus­ti­fied retal­i­a­tion.

[01:02:40] Cameron: Peo­ple going, well, hold on, you’ve got to under­stand that Iran’s been fund­ing Hamas and Hezbol­lah for years, and there­fore, You know, they’re basi­cal­ly say­ing they’re the first mover, uh, if you go back far enough, but that, okay, if you’re going to

[01:02:54] Tony: Yes.

[01:02:55] Cameron: you got to go right back.

[01:02:58] Tony: To when Israel took over

[01:02:59] Tony: Pales­tine.

[01:03:01] Cameron: Yeah. Well, actu­al­ly, part­ly that, um, and also part­ly when the U. S. over­threw the gov­ern­ment of Iran in 1953. And then, um, installed the Shah. Uh, and then when they had their, Iran had their sec­ond rev­o­lu­tion in 79, Aya­tol­lah Khome­i­ni came in and then the U. S. fund­ed Sad­dam Hus­sein’s chem­i­cal war against them for 10 years.

[01:03:27] Cameron: Um, so, you know, Iran, and then Iran sees Israel as the U. S. ‘s proxy in the region, prob­a­bly cor­rect­ly.

[01:03:37] Tony: The US sees Israel as

[01:03:38] Tony: the US’s

[01:03:38] Tony: proxy in the region.

[01:03:40] Cameron: Yeah, I’m not sure Ben­jamin Netanyahu sees Israel as the US’s proxy any­more.

[01:03:46] Tony: No, true.

[01:03:47] Cameron: uh, he’s doing a Sad­dam basi­cal­ly going, lis­ten, screw you, I can do

[01:03:51] Cameron: what­ev­er the hell I

[01:03:52] Tony: Yeah, he is, isn’t

[01:03:53] Cameron: Sad­dam cir­ca 1990,

[01:03:56] Tony: think that’s one thing I’ve had to be care­ful of, is crit­i­ciz­ing Israel or the Jew­ish peo­ple. You real­ly criti I’m real­ly crit­i­ciz­ing Netanyahu’s approach to the

[01:04:06] Tony: sit­u­a­tion.

[01:04:08] Tony: More than any­thing.

[01:04:09] Cameron: well, it’s, you know, but, you know, Israel’s been doing a lot of hor­ri­ble things to the peo­ple of Pales­tine for a very long time. Okay, back to the The 30s, the 20s, even, uh, well before they took con­trol over there. Um, my mum made the mis­take the oth­er night. My mum’s still stay­ing with us. She sat down, she goes, can you explain the his­to­ry of Pales­tine to me?

[01:04:38] Tony: Boy, she’s a glut­ton for pun­ish­ment. There’s noth­ing on TV that night, hey?

[01:04:43] Cameron: I said, you want the short ver­sion or the long ver­sion?

[01:04:47] Tony: I hope she said the

[01:04:47] Tony: short.

[01:04:50] Cameron: she

[01:04:50] Cameron: said the short. So about three hours lat­er, she said that was the short ver­sion. I was like, yeah, well, I’ve done like a hun­dred hours of pod­casts on it. So. Three hours, you’re get­ting off light­ly.

[01:05:05] Tony: But, you know, so, but where does it, you say you go back into his­to­ry, where does it, where does it end and where do you, you know, appor­tion blame, as you said to me before, The Jew­ish peo­ple went back to Pales­tine after World War II because no one else would take them in.

[01:05:24] Tony: So

[01:05:24] Cameron: Well, that’s not exact­ly true, there were Oth­er offers, includ­ing Aus­tralia. There was offers for them to have an area in the mid­dle of Aus­tralia. There were offers of Ugan­da was anoth­er sug­ges­tion. They could go to Ugan­da. Um, but they did­n’t, well, some of them were hap­py with those. There was a lot of debate in the Zion­ist com­mu­ni­ties about where they should go and all that kind of stuff.

[01:05:49] Cameron: But the over­whelm­ing major­i­ty of them want­ed to go to Israel

[01:05:54] Tony: the promised land.

[01:05:55] Cameron: as it was.

[01:05:58] Tony: Mm.

[01:05:59] Cameron: But any­way, yes, the his­to­ry of Iran, the ten­sions between Iran and Israel go back to the, you know, at least the late 40s and even ear­li­er, even ear­li­er than that. Like, um, Iran was, uh, crit­i­cal of the Zion­ist move­ment into Pales­tine before that. Um, but cer­tain­ly on the cre­ation of Israel, Iran was not in favor of that.

[01:06:25] Cameron: There was a peri­od of detente when the Shah, who’s an Amer­i­can pup­pet real­ly, was run­ning things from 53 to 79. But cer­tain­ly since the rev­o­lu­tion in 79, for most of the time they haven’t been on very good

[01:06:39] Tony: Mm.

[01:06:41] Cameron: Um, There have been a cou­ple of brief peri­ods when they had a bit of a detente, but, uh, yeah, most­ly, uh, Israel, Iran sees them­selves as the defend­ers, one of the few remain­ing defend­ers of the Pales­tin­ian Mus­lim peo­ple, and that’s why they sup­port Hamas and Hezbol­lah, because they’re in their views, uh, fight­ing for the free­dom of oppres­sion for

[01:07:07] Tony: Mm hmm.

[01:07:08] Cameron: Pales­tin­ian Mus­lims.

[01:07:10] Cameron: In the West, we call them ter­ror­ist orga­ni­za­tions. They see them as, uh, you know, guer­ril­la free­dom oper­a­tions.

[01:07:19] Tony: Yes, I’m always remind­ed of the Ronald Rea­gan quote when it comes to free­dom fight­ers. We’ve, we’ve got those San­din­istas on the run. Uh, Mr. Pres­i­dent, aren’t they the free­dom fight­ers? Oh, no, yes. Fight­ers from free­dom. Fight­ers from free­dom.

[01:07:39] Cameron: Yes. Yes. Any­way, the pro­pa­gan­da in the West­ern media in the last week, uh, around this whole sit­u­a­tion has been wall to wall and astound­ing­ly brash, as usu­al. Like,

[01:07:54] Cameron: their abil­i­ty to just write what­ev­er they want. I don’t know who they think they are, Bruce Ler­man or some­thing. I don’t know. They just think they can, what did the judge say?

[01:08:02] Cameron: It’s like the man who escaped from the lion den and went back to get his hat.

[01:08:08] Tony: That’s exact­ly true, isn’t it? Guy real­ly strate­gi­cal­ly blun­dered there. Good any­way.

[01:08:13] Cameron: and his

[01:08:14] Tony: Yes,

[01:08:15] Tony: cor­rect.

[01:08:17] Cameron: Alrighty then, well before I get myself into more trou­ble, let’s draw a line under that, and I’ll talk to you next week. Have a good week,

[01:08:24] Tony: Yes. Hap­py ASX. I hope it’s a bet­ter week for stock mar­kets in gen­er­al around the world.