QAV Light Weekly Update #108

Hap­py Mon­day!

I’m not in love
So don’t for­get it
It’s just a sil­ly phase I’m going through

10CC teach­ing us a lot about the mar­ket this morn­ing.

What’s it got to do with invest­ing?

Well we are nev­er in love with a stock. The QAV sys­tem teach­es us to be “Cold As Ice” (might be next week’s track). We aren’t emo­tion­al about our port­fo­lio stocks. We buy them when the sys­tem tells us to, and then sell them when it tells us to. It allows us to avoid the hype and noise in the mar­ket and, espe­cial­ly, the fren­zy we often see in the finan­cial media. We just stick to our knit­ting and trust that our fun­da­men­tal premise makes sense — we buy shares in good qual­i­ty com­pa­nies when we can get them at a dis­count, then we hold them until they breach one of our sell trig­gers. 

There’s still a lot of frothy opti­mism out there at the moment, and the AORD hit a new high last week. How­ev­er, it’s just “tee­ter­ing”, accord­ing to this morn­ing’s AFR, “with traders expect­ing tepid eco­nom­ic growth fig­ures to be among a flur­ry of data due this week and rein­force fore­casts that cen­tral banks will begin cut­ting inter­est rates lat­er this year.”

Of course, we don’t pay much atten­tion to fore­casts. We trade based on fun­da­men­tal analy­sis of the stocks them­selves. 

PORTFOLIO UPDATES

As it’s the start of the month, let’s take a look at how our Light port­fo­lios are per­form­ing.

LIGHT PORTFOLIO GROUP RESULTS 

As a group, our port­fo­lios are still doing about half the per­for­mance of the bench­mark, still try­ing to recov­er from the crash of ear­ly ’22. Of course, this makes up 4 indi­vid­ual port­fo­lios, and cur­rent­ly includes 64 stocks, which means it’s quite a broad rep­re­sen­ta­tion and isn’t as con­cen­trat­ed as the indi­vid­ual port­fo­lios with 15–20 stocks each. 

Over the last cou­ple of years the mar­ket tur­bu­lence has result­ed in us sit­ting on cash for long peri­ods, wait­ing for our sys­tem to throw up stocks that were sta­ble enough for us to buy. It’s a cheap form of insur­ance, but also means that we’ve missed out on some of the errat­ic growth bursts over the peri­od. We don’t care about the short-term though, we’re focused on long-term results. 

PORTFOLIO 221

This port­fo­lio closed 18/04/2022, just as the mar­ket crashed due to the Ukraine war. Hor­ri­ble tim­ing. As a result, we were sit­ting on a lot of cash for a long time, look­ing for some­thing to buy. It’s still down ~1.5 % pa (vs SPDR 200 +8.8%) but it’s been improv­ing since May last year. Of course, so has the STW. 

This FY it has been out­per­form­ing the STW until recent­ly. The recent set­backs were large­ly due to the large drops in our hold­ings in NTD and TRS. 

PORTFOLIO 222

This port­fo­lio closed 08/08/2022 and is up ~14% pa (vs SPDR 200 +6.8%), per­form­ing at dou­ble mar­ket, which is our goal. 

PORTFOLIO 223

This port­fo­lio closed 07/11/2022 and has recov­ered back to a pos­i­tive posi­tion (vs STW +11%). It spent a lot of the last year hold­ing cash wait­ing for the mar­ket to recov­er.

It’s been doing rea­son­ably well this FY, although still lag­ging the STW.

PORTFOLIO 231

This one closed 20/06/2023 and is cur­rent­ly up ~3% (vs SPDR 200 +11%). As you can see in the chart, it took a few big loss­es in Sep – Nov but has been recov­er­ing since then quite quick­ly.

SELLS

BUYS

CURRENT HOLDINGS

** Please remem­ber to review our Buy­ing Guide­lines to under­stand which cap bands you should be look­ing at and oth­er impor­tant con­sid­er­a­tions. 

DISCLOSURE 

In the inter­est of full dis­clo­sure, we would like to advise that, as of the date of this email, the QAV team cur­rent­ly hold these stocks in their per­son­al port­fo­lios:

ADH ALD ANZ DTL EHE FHE FPR GNC MMS QBE RMS SSM SUL VUK WAM WGX BSL GEM OML

Please note that our per­son­al hold­ings might not include the stocks we rec­om­mend in QAV Light. This is because we already have full port­fo­lios (15–20 stocks) and can only add new stocks if we have to sell some­thing. 
If you’re inter­est­ed in learn­ing more, please review our trad­ing and dis­clo­sure pol­i­cy.

FOR NEW MEMBERS

If you’re new to QAV Light, here’s a quick reminder on how it works. 

1. We send you an email every Mon­day advis­ing which stocks we are adding to our Light port­fo­lio.
2. You can copy our trades, but please remem­ber to review our Trad­ing Guide­lines to under­stand which cap you should be look­ing at and oth­er impor­tant con­sid­er­a­tions. And con­sult a finan­cial plan­ner before mak­ing any deci­sions.
3. We don’t rec­om­mend that you add stocks which are already in our port­fo­lio. Their posi­tion on our buy list might have changed since we rec­om­mend­ed them. Just start with the stocks rec­om­mend­ed after you become a mem­ber.
4. If one of the stocks we add breach­es one of our sell con­di­tions, we will sell it from our port­fo­lio and you’ll get an email advis­ing of the trade. Again, you can copy our trades, but seek finan­cial advice before mak­ing any deci­sions. And please check your Rule #1 price (see Trad­ing Guide­lines).
5. If you come across any QAV ter­mi­nol­o­gy that you don’t under­stand (eg Rule 1, 3PTL, Pos­si­bles, etc), please review our ter­mi­nol­o­gy guide or just email us for clar­i­fi­ca­tion.

That’s it for today! 

If we decide to buy or sell some­thing, we’ll let you know. 

Got a ques­tion? 
[email protected]