Hello QAV Light Brigade

It’s Monday and this is my weekly report. Welcome to all of our new subscribers! 

The AORD rebounded again last week and the AFR is predicting a good start to this week as well.

 

 

Light Portfolio Group Results 

As a group, our portfolios are down 2.34% CAGR pa while the benchmark is up 12.45%.

While some of it is due to a few of our stocks underperforming, I think a chunk of the differential can be put down to two major contributing factors:

1. The fact we were sitting on a lot of cash over the last 18 months, while we couldn’t find anything to invest in for long periods. The STW doesn’t have that problem so it’s not really an apples-for-apples comparison of performance of the stocks themselves (although going to cash in period of turbulence is, of course, part of the QAV strategy). 

2. The choppiness of the last 18 months has resulted in us having to use our Rule 1 trigger quite often, what Tony has referred to as the “Rule 1 Death Spiral”. As he’s mentioned on the show recently, he’s doing some analysis to see if there’s a better cut off line for Rule 1. However, as QAV Club member Cosmin pointed out to us recently (as mentioned on a recent episode), it exists for a very good reason (he believes his performance would be twice as good if he’d followed Rule 1 religiously). 

We’re confident that the system is fine, because, as you can see below, the QAV Dummy portfolio had a reasonable year, as did many of our QAV Club members who have been reporting similar results on our Facebook group this morning. We all underperformed the index in FY23, but we’re all significantly outperforming the benchmark over the last few years. It has a lot to do with how established the portfolios were before the market started getting shaky in early 2022, due to Ukraine and interest rate rises, etc. The more established they were, the less Rule 1’s they had to do, and the smoother the performance has been. 

 

Anyway, if you’ve been listening to the podcast recently, you’ll also know that Tony isn’t at all worried about being down 10 – 15%. We can make that up in no time when the market turns back in our favour. It’s all about “time in the market”. Over the long haul, it all balances out. 

22.1

221 is down 15% CAGR pa. Our first Light portfolio unfortunately got off to a bad start, launching in Feb 2022. Bad timing! As we can see below, the STW has barely moved over that period of time, too.

 

22.2

This portfolio closed 08/08/2022 and has done quite well. It’s up 20.21% CAGR pa vs the STW up 7.17%.

 

22.3

This portfolio is also lagging the STW. It’s down 6.89% CAGR pa vs the STW which is up 6.71%.

 

23.1

Our last portfolio only closed last month, even though we launched it in December 2022. It took us that long to fully invest the initial capital, which is crazy and a testament to how dodgy the market has been lately. This one is down 0.66% vs the STW which us down 2.17%.

 

SELLS

THIS CONTENT IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO QAV LIGHT AND CLUB SUBSCRIBERS.

BUYS

THIS CONTENT IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO QAV LIGHT AND CLUB SUBSCRIBERS.

 

 

DISCLOSURE

In the interest of full disclosure, we would like to advise that, as of the date of this email, the QAV team currently hold these stocks in their personal portfolios:

AFG CCP FHE FPR FMG GNC IGL JHG MQG PLS QAN QBE RMS SGM VEA WAM

Please note that our personal holdings might not include the stocks we recommend in QAV Light. This is because we already have full portfolios (15-20 stocks) and can only add new stocks if we have to sell something.

If you’re interested in learning more, please review our trading and disclosure policy.

 

FOR NEW MEMBERS

If you’re new to QAV Light, here’s a quick reminder on how it works.

    1. We send you an email every Monday advising which stocks we are adding to our Light portfolio.
    2. You can copy our trades, but please remember to review our Trading Guidelines to understand which cap you should be looking at and other important considerations. And consult a financial planner before making any decisions.
    3. We don’t recommend that you add stocks which are already in our portfolio. Their position on our buy list might have changed since we recommended them. Just start with the stocks recommended after you become a member.
    4. If one of the stocks we add breaches one of our sell conditions, we will sell it from our portfolio and you’ll get an email advising of the trade. Again, you can copy our trades, but seek financial advice before making any decisions. And please check your Rule #1 price (see Trading Guidelines).

     

    That’s it for today!

    If we decide to buy or sell something, we’ll let you know.

    Got a question?
    info@qavpodcast.com.au