Dead Cat or Dead Cert? Navigating the March Sell-Off – QAV AU #914

QAV AU 914 Club

[00:00:00] Cameron Reil­ly: Wel­come to QAV episode 9 1 4. It is the 7th of April year of Don­ald Trump’s rapid descent into mad­ness. [00:00:10] Uh,

[00:00:11] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh,

[00:00:13] Cameron Reil­ly: not to put too fine a point on it.

[00:00:15] Tony Kynas­ton: real­ly, you think that, you think he was­n’t already there years ago on the first [00:00:20] term

[00:00:20] Cameron Reil­ly: I think there was, there was obvi­ous­ly, uh, cog­ni­tive issues, but I think it’s get­ting worse. Open the fing straight. You crazy bas­tards.

[00:00:29] Tony Kynas­ton: [00:00:30] Praise b dweller,

[00:00:31] Cameron Reil­ly: Raise me.

[00:00:34] Tony Kynas­ton: uh, which appar­ent­ly did you hear the sto­ry [00:00:40] about when they went in to get the downed Air Force pilot? They made a, they had a com­mu­ni­ca­tion link to him and one of the mes­sages fin­ished with God is great. And so [00:00:50] they straight away thought it was a decoy from the Ira­ni­ans. But appar­ent­ly the, the pilot, the, the arti­cle just said he had reli­gious beliefs.

[00:00:59] Tony Kynas­ton: That meant [00:01:00] he said, God is great. Did­n’t say he was a Mus­lim. I don’t know what it means, but yeah, he signed off with God is great, which threw all the US forces into a spin.

[00:01:09] Cameron Reil­ly: [00:01:10] Did he say us like him, or did he say it in Eng­lish?

[00:01:14] Tony Kynas­ton: No, God is great. I don’t know. Yeah. That was fun­ny. [00:01:20] $300 mil­lion. That’s the cost of, uh, an Air Force pilot.

[00:01:24] Cameron Reil­ly: well Trump bet­ter sack a few more, gov­ern­ment [00:01:30] employ­ees from reg­u­la­to­ry depart­ments then to pay for that.

[00:01:33] Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

[00:01:34] Cameron Reil­ly: Is that what they, it cost them for the recov­ery

[00:01:36] Tony Kynas­ton: That’s what it cost them for the equip­ment they lost. So the [00:01:40] jet, but they also had to torch two Her­cules, which got bogged in the mud in Iran. They did­n’t wan­na it to fall onto ene­my hands, so they’re a hun­dred mil each. And plus they were [00:01:50] also car­ry­ing some­thing called a minia­ture heli­copter or minia­ture heli­copters.

[00:01:54] Tony Kynas­ton: They to torch those as well and then send in oth­er hers to get the guys out.

[00:01:59] Cameron Reil­ly: [00:02:00] Well, well,

[00:02:01] Tony Kynas­ton: I think the Black­hawk the pilot was in, was shot at. So that’s decom­mis­sioned as well now.

[00:02:06] Cameron Reil­ly: and I’m sure the eco­nom­ic jus­ti­fi­ca­tion is if we get [00:02:10] con­trol of Iran’s oil, we’ve got con­trol of Venezue­la’s oil, we get con­trol of Iran’s oil. Uh, you know, it’s all eco­nom­i­cal­ly jus­ti­fi­able in the end.

[00:02:19] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:02:19] Cameron Reil­ly: [00:02:20] Big if though, the sec­ond one,

[00:02:21] Tony Kynas­ton: If

[00:02:22] Cameron Reil­ly: it’s a

[00:02:23] Tony Kynas­ton: and,

[00:02:23] Cameron Reil­ly: if,

[00:02:24] Tony Kynas­ton: and if any­one’s run­ning those kind of num­bers, I think it was more about Trump being able to say he found the pilot rather than the pilot [00:02:30] be parad­ed

[00:02:30] Cameron Reil­ly: I’m talk­ing,

[00:02:31] Tony Kynas­ton: the Ira­ni­ans.

[00:02:32] Cameron Reil­ly: thing, the cost of the

[00:02:33] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, the whole war. Yeah.

[00:02:35] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, you’re call­ing it a war now. You’ve final­ly con­ced­ed. It’s not just an excur­sion, it’s a war.

[00:02:39] Tony Kynas­ton: [00:02:40] I think it’s a war. It’s the Trump admin­is­tra­tion who’s been call­ing it some­thing else. Any­thing but a war.

[00:02:45] Cameron Reil­ly: Trump and Pete, hes earth have been call­ing it a war for

[00:02:47] Tony Kynas­ton: Nev­er.

[00:02:48] Cameron Reil­ly: five weeks.

[00:02:49] Tony Kynas­ton: But the war [00:02:50] needs Con­gress approval.

[00:02:51] Cameron Reil­ly: Appar­ent­ly not.

[00:02:52] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, okay.

[00:02:54] Cameron Reil­ly: you’re so old fash­ioned Tony.

[00:02:55] Cameron Reil­ly: So old fash­ioned well,

[00:02:58] Tony Kynas­ton: and then also too, if [00:03:00] they blow up, uh, civil­ian infra­struc­ture, that’s a war crime since it’s hap­pen­ing in a war

[00:03:04] Cameron Reil­ly: right?

[00:03:05] Tony Kynas­ton: it’s a crime against civil­ians.

[00:03:07] Cameron Reil­ly: yeah, yeah. Well, who’s gonna, who’s gonna [00:03:10] come after the US and Israel for that?

[00:03:11] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

[00:03:12] Cameron Reil­ly: I triple C. Nei­ther of them are mem­bers of the I Triple C. And I think there’s already, uh,

[00:03:17] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:03:18] Cameron Reil­ly: already got arrest war­rants out [00:03:20] for Netanyahu. I think So

[00:03:21] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

[00:03:22] Cameron Reil­ly: the moon­shot Tony the

[00:03:24] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:03:26] Cameron Reil­ly: a land­ing the moon dri­ve by you.

[00:03:28] Tony Kynas­ton: the dark side, dark side of the [00:03:30] moon. I hope I played some Pink Floyd.

[00:03:32] Cameron Reil­ly: oh, I’m sure on the, on the shut­tle. I’m sure they’re doing that. Yeah.

[00:03:35] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

[00:03:36] Cameron Reil­ly: On the, uh, cap­sule. Are you, uh, you enjoy­ing that?

[00:03:39] Tony Kynas­ton: [00:03:40] I am Alex. Alex texted me last week and said, did you know there’s a rock­et going to the moon at the moment? I said, yep. Artemis two,

[00:03:49] Cameron Reil­ly: [00:03:50] Hmm.

[00:03:50] Tony Kynas­ton: I think is the sis­ter of Apol­lo in

[00:03:54] Cameron Reil­ly: I thought it was named after one of the, uh, mus­ke­teer, not Mus­ke­teers, the, uh, who [00:04:00] were they? The three Dian and

[00:04:04] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Mus­ke­teers.

[00:04:05] Cameron Reil­ly: that were Mus­ke­teers.

[00:04:06] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:04:07] Cameron Reil­ly: All of a sud­den I was think­ing Dis­ney, That was [00:04:10] The Mus­ke­teers. Yeah. Yeah. Artemis one of the, uh, Mus­ke­teers?

[00:04:15] Tony Kynas­ton: No Por­tos, Athos and Aus. You’re prob­a­bly think­ing of AAMIs. I think it was [00:04:20] the

[00:04:20] Cameron Reil­ly: Aramis.

[00:04:20] Tony Kynas­ton: The third. Yeah. And then DA Tania joined lat­er. Yeah. No, it’s great. It’s real­ly good to see it hap­pen­ing. Um, [00:04:30] I don’t know, I guess it’s the same where you are, but we’ve had bril­liant full moons recent­ly, so I don’t know if that was part of the NASA plan to, if that’s sort of some [00:04:40] kind of par­tic­u­lar align­ment or the moon’s clos­er than it nor­mal­ly is or some­thing to make the dis­tance trav­eled less.

[00:04:46] Tony Kynas­ton: But yeah, it’s been amaz­ing look­ing up at the moon, think­ing some­where [00:04:50] around there’s lit­tle tiny dot with humans in it

[00:04:52] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, I said exact­ly that to Chris­sy when we went on our ill fad­ed bike ride this morn­ing. Um, [00:05:00] saw

[00:05:01] Tony Kynas­ton: her off

[00:05:01] Cameron Reil­ly: the,

[00:05:02] Tony Kynas­ton: dirty rot­ten scan­dals for the style.

[00:05:06] Cameron Reil­ly: the moon was up and I said, it’s amaz­ing to think there’s [00:05:10] some­one up around there, a human

[00:05:11] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm.

[00:05:12] Cameron Reil­ly: near­by.

[00:05:13] Tony Kynas­ton: So you don’t sub­scribe to the des McCauley argu­ment that they was all this mon­ey on moon­shots is wast­ed, [00:05:20] could be bet­ter used, uh, for wel­fare.

[00:05:22] Cameron Reil­ly: How do you know what Des McCauley’s argu­ments are? I thought you stopped talk­ing to Des years ago.

[00:05:26] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, we used to have this debate in the school­yard

[00:05:28] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, [00:05:30] well I think that about many things like fire­works, but um.

[00:05:35] Tony Kynas­ton: and,

[00:05:36] Cameron Reil­ly: Look.

[00:05:37] Tony Kynas­ton: and the, for Air, air Force and [00:05:40] Her­cules liv­ing torched in the desert.

[00:05:42] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, look, I think, uh, humans going into space is, [00:05:50] uh, an expen­sive exer­cise, but, uh, a nec­es­sary exer­cise with what we’re doing to the plan­et. I, I think it’s an invest­ment in, uh, the [00:06:00] long-term future of the human race.

[00:06:01] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. I tend to agree.

[00:06:03] Cameron Reil­ly: although some, see, some peo­ple here seem to be try­ing to wipe it out as quick­ly as pos­si­ble faster than we can [00:06:10] get off plan­et.

[00:06:10] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, that’s, that’s the rea­son for doing it, isn’t it?

[00:06:13] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, we’re try­ing to destroy this one to force us to go to anoth­er one, or we’re try­ing to get to anoth­er one because we’re [00:06:20] destroy­ing this one.

[00:06:20] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. The sec­ond one.

[00:06:21] Cameron Reil­ly: doing both though?

[00:06:22] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Yeah, the sec­ond one. And then there’s the argu­ment which says, if we have a a back­up plan, we won’t care about this [00:06:30] plan­et as much. And it’s pret­ty hard to, hard to see how we could care about it less. But any­way,

[00:06:35] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, let’s talk about things that we do care about Tony, that are with­in our [00:06:40] con­trol with­out free will, obvi­ous­ly. Um, I’ll do a quick port­fo­lio analy­sis because the mar­kets have been obvi­ous­ly crazy [00:06:50] late­ly, but,

[00:06:51] Tony Kynas­ton: today.

[00:06:52] Cameron Reil­ly: well, yeah, not today, but you know, one day it’s up, one day it’s down.

[00:06:57] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

[00:06:57] Cameron Reil­ly: the mar­ket does­n’t know whether it’s com­ing [00:07:00] or going.

[00:07:00] Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

[00:07:01] Cameron Reil­ly: light group, let’s look at the light port­fo­lios for the last one year, the light port­fo­lios are up 36% [00:07:10] ver­sus the index up 17%. So well and tru­ly dou­ble mar­ket there. Uh, the [00:07:20] dum­my port­fo­lio, the last one year is up 26% ver­sus 17%. Not dou­ble mar­ket, but doing okay [00:07:30] and, uh, well, that’s it, I guess. Yeah. So port­fo­lios are chug­ging along nice­ly.

[00:07:36] Cameron Reil­ly: Tony, my super port­fo­lio for the [00:07:40] last one year is, oh my God, exact­ly the same as the mar­ket for the last one

[00:07:45] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh real­ly?

[00:07:47] Cameron Reil­ly: on the dot.

[00:07:49] Tony Kynas­ton: [00:07:50] Wow. Hmm. That sounds sus­pi­cious.

[00:07:53] Cameron Reil­ly: It’s fall­en a lot, um, in the last, uh, month and a half. But there you [00:08:00] go.

[00:08:00] Tony Kynas­ton: I noticed the mar­ket was up on open­ing about 2% this morn­ing. I know it’s fall­en back a bit since then, but, uh, that was inter­est­ing. I thought ’cause that [00:08:10] sort of jump usu­al­ly only occurs if the US mar­ket was up as much and it was­n’t. Um, or if there’s major news and the only major news is, [00:08:20] is about 12 hours to go before Iran gets bombed back to the Stone Age accord­ing to Don­ald Trump.

[00:08:25] Tony Kynas­ton: So who knows what the mar­ket

[00:08:28] Cameron Reil­ly: Tony, the

[00:08:29] Tony Kynas­ton: Age is? There’s [00:08:30] more than one.

[00:08:30] Cameron Reil­ly: More than one stone age,

[00:08:33] Tony Kynas­ton: It’s back to the Iron Age and the Bronze Age.

[00:08:35] Cameron Reil­ly: well, I guess they’re mid­dle Ages, but yeah.

[00:08:39] Tony Kynas­ton: [00:08:40] So I can’t think that that’s the rea­son for the jump. Um, even though the mar­kets have come back off a lit­tle bit. So I’m just won­der­ing whether there’s a bit of short cov­er­ing going on this morn­ing.

[00:08:47] Cameron Reil­ly: Mm-hmm.

[00:08:48] Tony Kynas­ton: Yep. So, [00:08:50] um, that, that might’ve been a flur­ry of trad­ing on an on the open, but I can’t real­ly explain it, but it was a sur­prise to see the mar­ket up 2% when I had a look as I was prep­ping for the [00:09:00] show.

[00:09:00] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, the, the mar­kets, like every­thing that I’m read­ing in the Finan­cial Review and oth­er places, New York [00:09:10] Times, sug­gest­ing that the Globe’s head­ing, we’re head­ing into a glob­al reces­sion

[00:09:13] Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm,

[00:09:14] Cameron Reil­ly: what’s going on in Iran, and yet mar­kets are

[00:09:17] Tony Kynas­ton: hmm. Yeah, it’s strange, isn’t it? Well, they’re [00:09:20] not quite burn­ing. I mean, they’ve come off in Aus­tralia, almost 10%. I think they’ve come off 10% in Amer­i­ca, so they ha they are down a lit­tle bit, a cor­rec­tion, but yeah, you’d think if you [00:09:30] giv­en every­thing the econ­o­mists are say­ing about a loom­ing reces­sion, you’d think they’d be off a lot more.

[00:09:35] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. Well, either they know some­thing I don’t or they know noth­ing and they’re [00:09:40] just like, don’t know.

[00:09:42] Tony Kynas­ton: Or they’re, or there’s trust­ing the Fed, the famous Fed put that every time some­thing hap­pens. To the econ­o­my, like COVID, that the [00:09:50] cen­tral banks will rush in and print mon­ey and it’ll all be fine.

[00:09:54] Cameron Reil­ly: Hmm. Yeah. Worked out so well for us last time. [00:10:00] Uh, did you read the finan­cial review this morn­ing, Tony?

[00:10:02] Tony Kynas­ton: I did.

[00:10:02] Cameron Reil­ly: Did you read that judges are too soft on insid­er traders? Accord­ing

[00:10:07] Tony Kynas­ton: I did.

[00:10:07] Cameron Reil­ly: uh, ASO basic,

[00:10:09] Tony Kynas­ton: Joe Lon­go.

[00:10:09] Cameron Reil­ly: [00:10:10] Lon­go big fan of our show. He’s been, uh, lis­ten­ing to Tony Rant and rave about this For the last few years, Secu­ri­ties and Invest­ment Com­mis­sion Chair­man Joe [00:10:20] Lon­go has accused judges of going soft on insid­er trad­ing and urge them to hand down more prison sen­tences to con­vict­ed crim­i­nals, [00:10:30] penal­ty of 15 years.

[00:10:32] Cameron Reil­ly: Jail can be giv­en to those using con­fi­den­tial infor­ma­tion to prof­it from secu­ri­ties trad­ing in Aus­tralia, but sev­er­al high pro­file [00:10:40] insid­er traders have escaped jail time and walked free on good behav­ior bonds in the insid­er trad­ing area. Over a peri­od of time, we’ve noticed that the sen­tences aren’t [00:10:50] as strong as we would like Lon­go told the Aus­tralian Finan­cial Review. We have reached a point now where we’re invit­ing the judi­cia­ry to take these mat­ters very [00:11:00] seri­ous­ly to take as the first con­sid­er­a­tion, a cus­to­di­al sen­tence, impris­on­ment. Wow.

[00:11:08] Tony Kynas­ton: Noth­ing.

[00:11:09] Cameron Reil­ly: of [00:11:10] asic uh, throw­ing shade at, uh, the judges

[00:11:13] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, noth­ing that you just, the judi­cia­ry likes more than is being told what to do by some­one out­side. So [00:11:20] I, I don’t think that will, um, sway them one lit­tle bit. And, and, um, I, I’m not, not sure how the case is run, but I’m assum­ing that if [00:11:30] that, uh, well per­haps it’s the police or the pros­e­cu­tors rather than the, rather than asic, but asic must be involved some­where.

[00:11:36] Tony Kynas­ton: So the cas­es can’t be that strong if, if, uh, judges are let­ting [00:11:40] peo­ple walk with good behav­ior bonds. But often­times what hap­pens is what’s weighed up in the cir­cum­stances is a lot of, um, high pro­file peo­ple pro­vide [00:11:50] ref­er­ences. The per­son is typ­i­cal­ly a pro­fes­sion­al them­selves with, with a clean record.

[00:11:54] Tony Kynas­ton: And so the judges go lenient on them as a first offend­er.

[00:11:57] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Um, and you know, the [00:12:00] only, the only per­son who’s, uh, a vic­tim of such a crime is the per­son who sold them the shares, a the cheap­er price. So, um, and often­times, um, the share traits [00:12:10] get unwound. I don’t know if it goes, it goes back to the orig­i­nal sell­er, but, but, um, yeah, all these things kind of lean towards the judges being lenient on, um, on these [00:12:20] peo­ple.

[00:12:20] Tony Kynas­ton: Usu­al­ly. Not always, but usu­al­ly, but again, I mean, you know, um, long ago, this is, [00:12:30] this is, I’ll call it the. Fel­l’s School of Reg­u­la­tion, which is to, which is not a bad strat­e­gy, it’s to go out into the press every day and [00:12:40] cre­ate a head­line on, on some­body you wan­na focus on. But you would’ve thought ASIC would car­ry some sway with the gov­ern­ment in terms of tight­en­ing up leg­is­la­tion to incar­cer­ate insid­er [00:12:50] traders.

[00:12:50] Tony Kynas­ton: If that’s what you real­ly want­ed. You could work behind the scenes at doing that. Per­haps he is, I don’t know.

[00:12:55] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, I, I want­ed to ask Mr. Lon­go what he’s [00:13:00] gonna do about con­fes­sion sea­son and

[00:13:03] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:13:04] Cameron Reil­ly: com­pa­nies not, uh, giv­ing the mar­ket warn­ing that their results are gonna be in the [00:13:10] toi­let.

[00:13:10] Tony Kynas­ton: Yep. That’s exact­ly right. And like I’m expect­ing.

[00:13:14] Cameron Reil­ly: own back­yard up, Mr. Lon­go, before you go throw­ing shade on oth­ers, maybe.

[00:13:19] Tony Kynas­ton: [00:13:20] Yeah. And I, I’m expect­ing this con­fes­sion sea­son’s gonna be pret­ty pep­pered. Every­one’s gonna say, giv­en every­thing that’s going on in the world, we can’t pre­dict what’s gonna hap­pen. Um, [00:13:30] so, uh, yeah. You know, fore­casts will be slim, high­ly qual­i­fied. Um, com­pa­nies will still have to come out if they know what their results [00:13:40] are before they’re announced.

[00:13:40] Tony Kynas­ton: If, you know, they’ve actu­al­ly crunched the num­bers before the for­mal announce­ment and say we’re mate­ri­al­ly dif­fer­ent to the fore­cast fig­ures. But, um, we’re, you [00:13:50] know, a few months off that. Anoth­er, it’ll hap­pen in June or July.

[00:13:56] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, mov­ing along, Tony, did you do a do, did you [00:14:00] do a buy list this week?

[00:14:01] Tony Kynas­ton: I did, and hap­py to see some more things on there besides the four oil com­pa­nies that have camped there for a while,

[00:14:08] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, I dun­no [00:14:10] about you, but when I sat down and did the buy list on the week­end, came up to Bund­aberg on Fri­day and sat down Fri­day night, Sat­ur­day morn­ing to have a look at it. And [00:14:20] it took me the entire week­end to fig­ure out the buy list. Uh, first of all, there was a lot of stocks on there that had­n’t been on there pre­vi­ous­ly.

[00:14:28] Cameron Reil­ly: So I was like, Ooh, [00:14:30] okay. I bet­ter bet­ter check on those and make sure some­thing has­n’t gone awry. And then I was not hap­py with the way my script was [00:14:40] eval­u­at­ing the bylines, and I was­n’t hap­py with the way the bread lat­er was eval­u­at­ing the bylines either. And so I spent sev­er­al days try­ing to work out the log­ic of [00:14:50] bylines because I think, I think what’s been hap­pen­ing, we, what we’re see­ing at the moment is a bit of an edge case. Not that we haven’t seen these sorts of things [00:15:00] before. But it’s unusu­al cir­cum­stances. So let me run you through some exam­ples. So let’s look at MLG. If you [00:15:10] bring up MLG in Stock, Doc­tor or the ator, and I’ll tell you what I think. Have you got it [00:15:20] open in front of you?

[00:15:21] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, yeah.

[00:15:22] Cameron Reil­ly: Okay. So for peo­ple not look­ing at the chart, um, the high­est [00:15:30] peak on MLG, real­ly, if you ignore where it starts back in May of 2021, I, I assume that look, looks like it [00:15:40] float­ed, must have float­ed then because there’s noth­ing pri­or to that, at least in the ator. Um, the high­est peak was at the end of Feb­ru­ary, Feb­ru­ary 26th, closed at a [00:15:50] dol­lar two, and then went to hell and it just plum­met­ed. Basi­cal­ly in a straight line down to the end of March [00:16:00] cents, then it has rebound­ed a lit­tle bit since then. It’s now at 80 cents. The ator when it’s draw­ing both the [00:16:10] orig­i­nal byline and the lat­est byline starts with the peak back in Octo­ber 21 and draws the first [00:16:20] byline through May 24 and draws the lat­est byline through, uh, Sep­tem­ber 25. [00:16:30] Um, now not sure that those, those bylines are real­ly rel­e­vant to what’s hap­pen­ing with [00:16:40] the shares at the moment. The shares are below the lat­est byline here. And, you know, uh, uh, with our lat­est byline the­o­ry, [00:16:50] we say that when a share has, uh, gone down, it needs to reestab­lish itself. When it’s been a [00:17:00] Josephine, it needs to reestab­lish itself behind a byline, I’m not sure that that byline is real­ly rel­e­vant. If I [00:17:10] was draw­ing a byline for this, I’d be look­ing at the high­est peak, which is Feb­ru­ary, and then try­ing to build one from there. And I’d [00:17:20] prob­a­bly be look­ing at March, which is a point, not a peak. So it would be

[00:17:24] Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

[00:17:25] Cameron Reil­ly: down and fol­low­ing the price line, which it has rebound­ed [00:17:30] above. So I see that as prob­a­bly the, um, rebound of sen­ti­ment, nec­es­sar­i­ly [00:17:40] going back above the estab­lished byline that the bread ator shows. Because I’m not real­ly sure that that byline is rel­e­vant to the [00:17:50] true under­ly­ing sen­ti­ment of the stock. The stock has crashed at the moment in line with every­thing, right? EE, almost every stock I looked at looked like this, one or two [00:18:00] excep­tions, but every­thing just fell off a cliff in March.

[00:18:03] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

[00:18:04] Cameron Reil­ly: And I’m think­ing that’s, I mean, it’s not rel­e­vant [00:18:10] to the under­ly­ing busi­ness of the stocks.

[00:18:13] Cameron Reil­ly: It’s not, it’s not rel­e­vant to their rev­enue, it’s not rel­e­vant to their per­for­mance. [00:18:20] It’s, uh, a sell off. It’s a pan­ic. It’s a mar­ket pan­ic. So when you’re look­ing at a mar­ket pan­ic like this, uh, how do [00:18:30] you think about when a stock has reestab­lished? sen­ti­ment wise, is the bio, is [00:18:40] the tra­di­tion­al byline rel­e­vant in a sit­u­a­tion like this?

[00:18:45] Tony Kynas­ton: I think so. Um, now I guess, bear in mind the [00:18:50] rea­son why the bylines are drawn as they are is because. They’re the, the most recent peaks. And as you point­ed out, the stock has dropped a lot from its high­est [00:19:00] point and there isn’t a sec­ond peak yet, but, and we’re, we’re also near the start of the month, um, at least busi­ness day wise.

[00:19:06] Tony Kynas­ton: So I sus­pect what will hap­pen in the day or twos time is [00:19:10] the Mabb, the share price for this com­pa­ny. And maybe some oth­er ones too will either keep going up, um, in which case it’ll even­tu­al­ly get back to the byline and cross it. And then we’ll [00:19:20] know for sure we def­i­nite­ly have pos­i­tive sen­ti­ment. Or it’ll form a sec­ond peak.

[00:19:24] Tony Kynas­ton: It’ll go up, it’ll come back. And then we can redraw bylines for a more recent sen­ti­ment because [00:19:30] H one will become, uh, what would you say it was end of Feb­ru­ary? Yeah. And then we’ll get a new H two this month as ear­ly as this month. [00:19:40] And, um, and we can see when it next cross­es that. But yeah, look, it’s a bit of a, it’s a tough one because we’re in a sit­u­a­tion where [00:19:50] even if we have that new byline, is it.

[00:19:52] Tony Kynas­ton: Is, and, and, and even if the stock price cross­es, it, it, is it estab­lish­ing sen­ti­ment or is it just a falling knife and [00:20:00] we’ll get anoth­er down­turn? You don’t real­ly know. Um, so yeah, I mean, until some­thing bet­ter comes along, it’s rules or rules for me it’s, [00:20:10] MLG isn’t a buy yet because it has­n’t gone back above its sec­ond byline.

[00:20:13] Cameron Reil­ly: So you treat it as a Josephine?

[00:20:15] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:20:16] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

[00:20:17] Tony Kynas­ton: Some stocks have, like, I’ll do a pulled poor clo­sure on, [00:20:20] on Tow­er Finan­cial and at least, um, as of this morn­ing it was, it was above, its, it had pulled back, but it was still above its sec­ond byline yet,

[00:20:28] Cameron Reil­ly: [00:20:30] Right.

[00:20:30] Tony Kynas­ton: and it has drawn one of the sec­ond bylines I’m talk­ing about. So it’s found a, I’m not sure how it’s found a sec­ond peak, but has,

[00:20:39] Cameron Reil­ly: [00:20:40] Right.

[00:20:40] Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

[00:20:41] Cameron Reil­ly: I mean, BRK was one of the excep­tions when I was going through it. It’s had a nice spike for obvi­ous rea­sons,

[00:20:48] Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

[00:20:49] Cameron Reil­ly: but

[00:20:49] Tony Kynas­ton: [00:20:50] an oil com­pa­ny.

[00:20:51] Cameron Reil­ly: yeah, a lot of the stocks on my buy list, oh, here we go. EDU has man­aged to get above it’s [00:21:00] byline. Um, but a lot of them, you know, were well and tru­ly still Josephines

[00:21:06] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

[00:21:07] Cameron Reil­ly: I looked at it.

[00:21:08] Tony Kynas­ton: and look, it’s, it’s a bit, [00:21:10] it’s a bit unfair to say that MLG is not a buy­er as EDU is. They both had recent highs than retrace and then gone back up again. [00:21:20] I guess the only mit­i­gat­ing fac­tor is E D’s gone up a greater per­cent­age than MLG has. But, but you know, it’s, um, I’m not sure [00:21:30] if they’re dif­fer­ent, so not dif­fer­ent cas­es, even though the lines are dif­fer­ent real­ly until we get a big­ger trend.

[00:21:35] Cameron Reil­ly: Right.

[00:21:37] Tony Kynas­ton: That’s my think­ing. But until, you know, [00:21:40] we either look at a much short­er time zone, I’m still gonna use the cur­rent rules. And as you say, there are oth­er things to buy besides MLG on the buy list this week.

[00:21:49] Cameron Reil­ly: [00:21:50] Well, many. I’m just going down the buy list that I put out. And, um, even with my relax­ing of this, and most of [00:22:00] them, uh, josephine’s, if we obey the bread lat­er ver­sion

[00:22:04] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah,

[00:22:04] Cameron Reil­ly: byline, look at like RRL. Well see. RRL is an [00:22:10] inter­est­ing one. It has fall­en a lot, but is still above its sec­ond byline,

[00:22:19] Tony Kynas­ton: [00:22:20] yeah,

[00:22:20] Cameron Reil­ly: like mas­sive­ly

[00:22:21] Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

[00:22:22] Cameron Reil­ly: its sec­ond byline.

[00:22:23] Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

[00:22:24] Cameron Reil­ly: Um, but [00:22:30] has it reestab­lished itself from its

[00:22:32] Tony Kynas­ton: tell,

[00:22:32] Cameron Reil­ly: fall?

[00:22:33] Tony Kynas­ton: you can’t real­ly tell can you, you’ve got­ta fudge it until you see a sec­ond peak fall. And that’s what I’m say­ing. E either [00:22:40] RRL con­tin­ues to go up dra­mat­i­cal­ly and retests its new highs or it forms a sec­ond peak and goes down, and then we have a sec­ond byline to judge sen­ti­ment [00:22:50] on.

[00:22:50] Cameron Reil­ly: Right. But we do use points instead of peaks sit­u­a­tions.

[00:22:57] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, [00:23:00] okay. I have to refresh my mem­o­ry on that one.

[00:23:03] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, if you just go back to the one I was look­ing at, which I think was a MA, let me just check. [00:23:10] Um, no. Must have been TBR.

[00:23:19] Tony Kynas­ton: is a [00:23:20] cell.

[00:23:20] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. Was­n’t, yeah. So if you look at, um, TBR, [00:23:30] so Ator is using H one for the lat­est byline as, uh, Sep­tem­ber [00:23:40] 25. Age two is Octo­ber 25,

[00:23:42] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

[00:23:43] Cameron Reil­ly: which is a point, not a peak real­ly.

[00:23:45] Tony Kynas­ton: No, that’s a peak.

[00:23:47] Cameron Reil­ly: How do you get that?

[00:23:49] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, [00:23:50] it’s got a point either side of it, and, um, it’s high­er than, uh, what’s, I for­get now what the cod­ing rule is. Um, [00:24:00] it had to have a month either side from mem­o­ry, and then we can treat and it, and not be on the exact same line as the oth­er two months. And then it, it can be treat­ed as a peak, [00:24:10] but I’d have to go back and look at the code that Brett and I worked out.

[00:24:13] Cameron Reil­ly: I thought a peak had to have to be high­er than the months before and after it.

[00:24:19] Tony Kynas­ton: [00:24:20] Um, yep. And then if you did that day, you’re going right back, aren’t you, with this par­tic­u­lar graph?

[00:24:26] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. To like the orig­i­nal byline there,

[00:24:29] Tony Kynas­ton: [00:24:30] Yeah. Cor­rect. Yep.

[00:24:31] Cameron Reil­ly: so Sep­tem­ber 25 is $6 69. Octo­ber 25 is $6 65. So it’s low­er than [00:24:40] Sep­tem­ber, but it’s high­er than Novem­ber, which was $6. So in my def­i­n­i­tion of a peak, that’s not a peak. It’s a point.

[00:24:48] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, [00:24:50] yeah. No, I take that point of view, but, um, I can’t remem­ber the rea­son, but we did, we did, uh, code it so that, um, if there was a point [00:25:00] above or below the trend line, it’s a peak or a trough.

[00:25:03] Tony Kynas­ton: So if you draw a line between, uh, [00:25:10] Sep­tem­ber, 2025 and Novem­ber, 2025, then Octo­ber is a high­er point than that.

[00:25:17] Cameron Reil­ly: Right.

[00:25:18] Tony Kynas­ton: So we fudged it and call to the peak. So [00:25:20] we could draw some more recent lines,

[00:25:22] Cameron Reil­ly: Inter­est­ing. Hmm. So

[00:25:27] Tony Kynas­ton: but yeah. Look, I take your point [00:25:30] again. How, how can you argue that TBR isn’t the buy, but EDU is or, um. Uh, what was the oth­er one I looked at before that I’m doing the pulled pork [00:25:40] on that, uh, tow­er is TWR. They’re essen­tial­ly sim­i­lar sorts of things. It’s just that, that we get some lat­er peaks, um,

[00:25:48] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

[00:25:49] Tony Kynas­ton: on some of the [00:25:50] graphs and the oth­er ones we don’t.

[00:25:51] Cameron Reil­ly: Right,

[00:25:52] Tony Kynas­ton: So, but I think, as you said before, it’s a bit of an anom­aly. I think in a, as soon as we get a bit fur­ther into the month, we’ll get [00:26:00] a more recent sec­ond peak. There’ll be a retrac­tion at some stage, which will give us a peak. But even then, if it goes above that sec­ond byline, is it the falling knife or is it, [00:26:10] you know, is it sen­ti­ment?

[00:26:11] Tony Kynas­ton: You’ve real­ly got­ta wait prob­a­bly a lit­tle bit longer for a sen­ti­ment to estab­lish itself.

[00:26:16] Cameron Reil­ly: Right.

[00:26:18] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm. [00:26:20] So in some respects, uh, like I, I see what your point is. I, I apply the rules the way they are, and in some respects it’s a good thing because it whit­tles down a num­ber of [00:26:30] com­pa­nies that, uh, we’re exposed to in case this is a falling nice sit­u­a­tion if we’re des­per­ate to buy some­thing. But, but yeah, it’s, um, it’s a, [00:26:40] I guess a, prob­a­bly a short­com­ing of using graphs, real­ly.

[00:26:43] Cameron Reil­ly: Okay, well thanks for that. I’m just not­ing down your def­i­n­i­tion of a fudged peak [00:26:50] here, and, uh, I’ll see if I can work that into my num­bers. But yeah, bot­tom line is, um, I thought it was a very, very [00:27:00] con­fus­ing week to try and draw because every­thing had fall­en, but was, know, every­thing was, um, like that I looked at, that was on the by list was tick­ing back up,

[00:27:09] Tony Kynas­ton: [00:27:10] Yep.

[00:27:10] Cameron Reil­ly: but, uh, some of those were above sec­ond bylines and some weren’t.

[00:27:16] Cameron Reil­ly: And yeah, I don’t know. [00:27:20] Any­way, thank you for clar­i­fy­ing that. Darl sent me a mes­sage just ear­li­er, was­n’t in my notes, uh, to you, but you may have seen [00:27:30] it.

[00:27:30] Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

[00:27:30] Cameron Reil­ly: I was just hav­ing a look at your buy­back process and appre­ci­ate you hav­ing the buy­back announce­ments list­ing sheet in your week­ly buy list. Look­ing at the rel­e­vant area in stock, EDIA, I [00:27:40] noticed that the aver­age shares line item includes a CAGR divid­ed by aver­age per­cent­age at the end. Would­n’t this [00:27:50] effec­tive­ly be the 5% val­ue we would be look­ing for? Unfor­tu­nate­ly, it’s not a met­ric that’s avail­able in the data down­load, but in my process I could prob­a­bly scrape it to a CSV [00:28:00] file if it was mean­ing­ful. Obvi­ous­ly mis­re­port­ing could still be an issue. Um, make, uh, any sense of that.

[00:28:08] Cameron Reil­ly: Uh, [00:28:10] shares line includes a CAGR over aver­age per­cent­age.

[00:28:13] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, I am not sure either. Let me have a look.

[00:28:17] Cameron Reil­ly: okay.

[00:28:19] Tony Kynas­ton: [00:28:20] Uh, I’m not see­ing, I’m see­ing, um, grass for rev­enue, net income, nor­mal­ized [00:28:30] EPSP ratio and div­i­dend yield on a, maybe Dar­ryl could send us a screen­shot of what he means.

[00:28:37] Cameron Reil­ly: Aver­age shares Line [00:28:40] item.

[00:28:40] Tony Kynas­ton: You dun­no. Sor­ry.

[00:28:41] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, I see it. if you just go into a stock report

[00:28:46] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

[00:28:46] Cameron Reil­ly: for any com­pa­ny, go right down to the [00:28:50] bot­tom of bal­ance sheet. Sec­ond from the bot­tom, aver­age shares. The very last col­umn is CAGR over aver­age.

[00:28:58] Tony Kynas­ton: So on that bal­ance sheet, [00:29:00] but I can’t see what you mean. Sor­ry.

[00:29:02] Cameron Reil­ly: Um, on the stock report page, the main page?

[00:29:08] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:29:09] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. You go [00:29:10] down bal­ance share says cash, work­ing cap­i­tal, net debt,

[00:29:12] Tony Kynas­ton: Yes.

[00:29:13] Cameron Reil­ly: shares.

[00:29:14] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, okay. The one I’m look­ing at does­n’t have that. Oh, yes it does. Yeah. Got it. Sor­ry. Yep. Got it. [00:29:20] Yep.

[00:29:20] Cameron Reil­ly: So then it’s got years

[00:29:23] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:29:24] Cameron Reil­ly: and a total CAGR over aver­age at the bot­tom. [00:29:30] that’s gonna be giv­ing you the aver­age over six years. Right? We

[00:29:35] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:29:36] Cameron Reil­ly: aver­age over one year.

[00:29:37] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, well, two, so we can [00:29:40] com­pare this year to last year.

[00:29:42] Cameron Reil­ly: But that’s one year. Yeah.

[00:29:44] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Well one year. Yeah. But, um, yeah, I can two columns. I can see the columns. Yeah, that could be help­ful if you [00:29:50] could screen scrape it and com­pare the, um, okay. So the exam­ple I’m look­ing at does­n’t have the CAG a line, but it’s got the share columns [00:30:00] and if you hold your cur­sor over the col­umn, it’s got the num­ber of shares round­ed up.

[00:30:07] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, yep. That could [00:30:10] work.

[00:30:10] Cameron Reil­ly: Right. But it’s no dif­fer­ent to what we’re doing in Stock, Doc­tor. I dun­no if

[00:30:17] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:30:17] Cameron Reil­ly: this because he’s using Stock Edia

[00:30:19] Tony Kynas­ton: Right.

[00:30:19] Cameron Reil­ly: [00:30:20] and not Stock Doc­tor, yeah. So aver­age shares is the aver­age shares out­stand­ing. So you’re just look­ing at the dif­fer­ence real­ly between the last two num­bers. Right.

[00:30:29] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. [00:30:30] So you don’t need to look at the graph. It’s in the num­bers.

[00:30:32] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, so you just want to grab those two num­bers and get the dif­fer­ence between this year’s [00:30:40] out­stand­ing shares and last year’s out­stand­ing shares and see if it’s less­er or greater than 5%.

[00:30:47] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. And I can see what Dar­ryl’s say­ing now, I think. ’cause [00:30:50] um, at the end of that row, that’s where the cer over aver­age comes in.

[00:30:54] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah,

[00:30:55] Tony Kynas­ton: you’ve got a num­ber there. But I think that would be the five year [00:31:00] aver­age increase or decrease in the num­ber of shares. We only want the, the last 12 months. Yeah.

[00:31:06] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

[00:31:08] Tony Kynas­ton: I see what he’s say­ing now.

[00:31:09] Tony Kynas­ton: [00:31:10] Yeah. Look it, if you just took those last two num­bers and took one from the oth­er and then saw what the per­cent­ages that would work. But that’s what we’re doing in Stock Doc­tor any­way. Yeah,

[00:31:19] Cameron Reil­ly: same [00:31:20] process. Yeah.

[00:31:20] Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

[00:31:21] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. But you can do that in Wikipedia. But as you said, Dar­ryl, I don’t think that you can get that as part of the down­load. So it’s some­thing that you have to do man­u­al­ly or [00:31:30] code it if you are so inclined. Thank you. Uh, Pan­to­ra Gold. Tony PNR was on my buy list this week, [00:31:40] and, uh, when I tried to find a, an audit, it did­n’t, my audit script did­n’t pick up an audit for it.

[00:31:48] Cameron Reil­ly: And then when I went man­u­al­ly look­ing for an [00:31:50] audit, I could­n’t find an audit.

[00:31:51] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh.

[00:31:52] Cameron Reil­ly: Um, I’ve seen a num­ber of com­pa­nies do this they just put out [00:32:00] a two page long report. just some basic num­bers and. I said to Claude, what’s up with min­ing [00:32:10] com­pa­nies in Aus­tralia that don’t seem to put out annu­al or halfly reports, but put out quar­ter­ly activ­i­ties slash appen­dix five B cash­flow reports? This is what Claude came back with. This is a [00:32:20] quirk of ASX list­ing rules. Com­pa­nies that are explo­ration stage or ear­ly devel­op­ment min­ers IE not yet gen­er­at­ing rev­enue required to lodge [00:32:30] quar­ter­ly activ­i­ties, reports, and appen­dix five B cash­flow reports every quar­ter. It’s actu­al­ly a more fre­quent report­ing oblig­a­tion, not less. The rea­son they don’t have tra­di­tion­al, [00:32:40] annu­al or half year­ly reports in the usu­al sense is that ASX list­ing Rule 5.5 requires that any enti­ty that is a min­ing explo­ration enti­ty or oil and gas explo­ration [00:32:50] enti­ty to lodge the appen­dix five B quar­ter­ly. is specif­i­cal­ly because they’re burn­ing cash with­out rev­enue.

[00:32:56] Cameron Reil­ly: The ASX wants investors to see cash run away [00:33:00] fre­quent­ly. They still tech­ni­cal­ly have an annu­al report oblig­a­tion,

[00:33:04] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

[00:33:04] Cameron Reil­ly: the annu­al report is often very thin, just statu­to­ry finan­cials com­pared to a prop­er [00:33:10] oper­at­ing com­pa­ny. The quar­ter­ly five B is where all the real action is. It shows cash on hand out­flows, on expi­ra­tion slash admin, and whether they’re about to run out of mon­ey. [00:33:20] But, um, when I look at p and r, so I could­n’t find any­thing report [00:33:30] wise, uh, big­ger than this two page thing. But, um, this is a big com­pa­ny. Their total [00:33:40] oper­at­ing rev­enue, Decem­ber 25 was $442 mil­lion. Uh, this is, does­n’t look like a pre-ex explo­ration [00:33:50] start­up to me. The total cash flow was 128 oper­at­ing cash flow, $128 mil­lion. [00:34:00] Uh, I was just won­der­ing if you knew what the hell was going on, Tony.

[00:34:05] Tony Kynas­ton: I am not famil­iar with this com­pa­ny. I’m just try­ing to look through and see if I can find annu­al report. ’cause they’re sup­posed to still [00:34:10] put out annu­al report and a half year­ly report as well as quar­ter­ly cash flows. Um, but Claude’s, right, in gen­er­al, if, if a com­pa­ny is [00:34:20] pre-pro­duc­tion, I think is the term in the, in the, uh, statutes in the law, um, they meant to put out a quar­ter­ly report to show you the cash burn [00:34:30] because oth­er­wise they could raise mon­ey and you would­n’t hear for them for six months.

[00:34:32] Tony Kynas­ton: And they could have spent it all by then before they have to put out a, an announce­ment. So it’s kind of forc­ing them into con­tin­u­ous [00:34:40] dis­clo­sure. Um, my, under my sort of vague rec­ol­lec­tion is that’s because of some of the min­ing com­pa­nies that were fast and loose back in the day. [00:34:50] Um, and so the reg­u­la­tions were tight­ened up this way so that they had to report cash, uh, hold­ings on a quar­ter­ly basis, but they’re still meant to pro­duce annu­al reports and [00:35:00] half year­ly reports.

[00:35:01] Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

[00:35:01] Cameron Reil­ly: found it,

[00:35:02] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, okay. Good.

[00:35:03] Cameron Reil­ly: 9th of March, 2026, half year­ly reports and accounts is an audit, audi­tor’s [00:35:10] dec­la­ra­tion in

[00:35:10] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[00:35:11] Cameron Reil­ly: Eds and Young, so I dun­no why I did­n’t see that the first time in my script. Did­n’t pick it up. Must be the way it’s named. Alright, well for­get all of [00:35:20] that.

[00:35:20] Tony Kynas­ton: It is a quirk to be aware of though, like, um, I don’t think we’ll we’ll ever see pre-pro­duc­tion min­ing com­pa­nies on our buy list ’cause we’re look­ing for cash flow.

[00:35:29] Cameron Reil­ly: [00:35:30] exact­ly.

[00:35:30] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. So, um, it’s also, I’m not exact­ly clear on when. I think it’s, it’s [00:35:40] either the ASX or ASIC takes ’em off that list. ’cause if this com­pa­ny, as you say, is on our buy list, it should, it should have op cash.

[00:35:47] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, but it’s still being treat­ed as, uh, [00:35:50] a pre-pro­duc­tion com­pa­ny by the reg­u­la­tor and they should get tak­en off at some stage. Gen­er­al­ly there’s, there’s some kind of test about, uh, how rel­e­vant [00:36:00] or how ongo­ing the, the input is. The rev­enue is, I’m not, not sure the ins and outs of it, but at some stage it, once it gets, um, sta­ble enough, then they take [00:36:10] it off the quar­ter­ly cash­flow report­ing cycle.

[00:36:13] Cameron Reil­ly: I tell you why I did­n’t see it in Stock, Doc­tor, in the announce­ments, if you click price sen­si­tive only, it only has [00:36:20] the Decem­ber 25, half year report

[00:36:22] Tony Kynas­ton: Right.

[00:36:23] Cameron Reil­ly: If you unclick that, all of a sud­den the full 32 page, uh, [00:36:30] thing appears. But it’s, you know, you have to, you have to scroll through a cou­ple of pages of announce­ments to find

[00:36:38] Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm.

[00:36:39] Cameron Reil­ly: Um, I [00:36:40] dun­no why Stock Doc­tor does­n’t think that’s price sen­si­tive. They’re half year­ly reports.

[00:36:44] Tony Kynas­ton: Well, I also just tried to do it by, um, des­e­lect­ing every­thing and then hit­ting peri­od­ic reports, which is how I [00:36:50] nor­mal­ly find, um, annu­al reports. But it did­n’t come up then either. So I’m not sure what’s going up with the fil­ter­ing in Stock Doc­tor.

[00:36:58] Cameron Reil­ly: Well that [00:37:00] explains that. Then. I just had to look hard­er. All right, well that’s all my notes. What you got for me, tk?

[00:37:06] Tony Kynas­ton: Not a whole lot either. Uh, I did notice that Par­en­ti [00:37:10] changed their CEO, but I don’t think there’s any­thing, you know, to talk about too much with that. Um, I. The [00:37:20] So Par­entes, a stock eye own­er should declare, and it’s also, uh, has been in the buy list for a long time. Um, and I’m just try­ing to [00:37:30] find my notes, which have gone miss­ing for some rea­son.

[00:37:33] Tony Kynas­ton: Any­way, the per­son who, um, has been appoint­ed has 25 years expe­ri­ence in the indus­try and [00:37:40] was chief oper­at­ing offi­cer at South 32. So they seemed pret­ty well cre­den­tialed and the whole han­dover was flagged back at the A GM and they said they’re gonna do a [00:37:50] search and find a replace­ment and the cur­rent guy was gonna stay on until then.

[00:37:53] Tony Kynas­ton: And that seems to have hap­pened. So it all looks pret­ty kosher to me. Anoth­er red flag.

[00:37:59] Cameron Reil­ly: [00:38:00] Dr. Vanes­sa Tor­res will suc­ceed. Mr. Mar­tin Nor­well as MD and CEO. Dr. Tor­res held the role of [00:38:10] Chief oper­at­ing Offi­cer at South 32 has had more than 25 years expe­ri­ence in senior lead­er­ship roles across the glob­al resources indus­try. [00:38:20] So good luck to, uh, Dr. Tor­res.

[00:38:24] Tony Kynas­ton: Yep. Thank you for that. I just found my notes as well.

[00:38:28] Cameron Reil­ly: oh, good.

[00:38:29] Tony Kynas­ton: I don’t know why [00:38:30] they all got closed on me, but they got closed for some rea­son. So, yeah, I, I’m com­ing into the mod­ern age. I’ve stopped print­ing them out on paper now. I,

[00:38:37] Cameron Reil­ly: wow.

[00:38:38] Tony Kynas­ton: look at them online. Yeah, I know [00:38:40] on my com­put­er. But that’s one of the down­sides is I lose them.

[00:38:43] Cameron Reil­ly: You don’t lose paper notes,

[00:38:45] Tony Kynas­ton: No, they’re right beside me nor­mal­ly. And I have some­thing to write on too. But any­way, [00:38:50] uh, that’s all I had. Um, and except for that, there’s a pulled pork on tow­el lim­it­ed.

[00:38:57] Cameron Reil­ly: Why don’t you get into that then?

[00:38:59] Tony Kynas­ton: [00:39:00] Yeah. So again, um, this is one of these inter­est­ing graphs where it’s dropped off a lot and it’s just ticked up. And whether that’s gonna con­tin­ue or not, who knows?

[00:39:09] Tony Kynas­ton: But [00:39:10] tech­ni­cal­ly it’s above. Its uh, its both, its bylines. So I thought I’d talk about it. Um, not sure whether I’d done a pulled pork on tow­er [00:39:20] before. It was­n’t in our, our list. So if I have, it’s going back a long time and I do recall talk­ing about them in the past, but I’ve got a feel­ing it might have just been [00:39:30] as, uh, a news item, but they’re back on the buy list this week.

[00:39:35] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, I, I wan­na start with the [00:39:40] his­to­ry ’cause it’s, it’s inter­est­ing and it kind of sets the scene for how. They’re looked at today. So this com­pa­ny’s a New Zealand based com­pa­ny. Start­ed off in Auck­land in way [00:39:50] back in 1869. So it’s been around for a long time. It’s, it is list­ed in Aus­tralia as well as New Zealand.

[00:39:56] Tony Kynas­ton: New Zealand prob­a­bly has the big­ger trad­ing activ­i­ty. Um. [00:40:00] It’s also list­ed in Aus­tralia. Uh, it’s basi­cal­ly a gen­er­al insur­ance busi­ness. It’s, it’s his­to­ry for a long time though, was a, [00:40:10] as a life insur­ance busi­ness. And it’s pos­si­ble that I talked about Tow­er, uh, many years ago, five or six years ago when we first start­ed talk­ing about.

[00:40:18] Tony Kynas­ton: Stocks back when it was a life [00:40:20] insur­ance com­pa­ny. But any­way, it’s, its core prod­ucts are, are now car home con­tents, insur­ance, land­lord trav­el, pet insur­ance, small busi­ness cov­er, all that [00:40:30] kind of stuff that we we’re used to see­ing in the large gen­er­al insur­ers in Aus­tralia, like IIAG and Sun­corp. But the focus for this com­pa­ny is in, basi­cal­ly in New Zealand [00:40:40] and the Pacif­ic.

[00:40:40] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, even though it does have a dual list­ing here and a small pres­ence here, uh, to give it some con­text in terms of its mar­ket posi­tion, it’s, uh, [00:40:50] if I look at IAG group, it’s got about 30% mar­ket share. Um, in Aus­tralia has brands like NRMA and CGU. [00:41:00] Um, Sun­corp is the num­ber two insur­er in Aus­tralia with a 25% mar­ket share.

[00:41:04] Tony Kynas­ton: And brands like Amy and GIO, uh, but Tow­er, um, is much, much [00:41:10] small­er. It’s the min­now of the, um, of the space. And as I said before, it does. Um, it does oper­ate in New Zealand, but even there, IAG dom­i­nates the [00:41:20] mar­ket share for gen­er­al insur­ance over there. Um, and giv­en that, uh, it’s a small­er com­pa­ny, it’s, it’s, um, fair­ly sen­si­tive to [00:41:30] any sort of nat­ur­al events that can dri­ve insur­ance claims.

[00:41:33] Tony Kynas­ton: And, and New Zealand’s prob­a­bly even more dra­mat­ic for nat­ur­al events in Aus­tralia is because it also has [00:41:40] earth­quakes and we don’t tend to have many of those here. Um, so there can be big swings in its prof­it and loss, and we cur­rent­ly are going through a big swing in its prof­it. [00:41:50] I’ll come, come back to that.

[00:41:51] Tony Kynas­ton: Um. Again, but just, that’s just set­ting some con­text for this, uh, worth. Going back to the his­to­ry though, to get a, um, a con­text [00:42:00] on how his­to­ry shapes the cur­rent mar­ket view for the com­pa­ny. So when it was found­ed back in 1869 and right up until the 1980s, it was owned by the gov­ern­ment, by the New [00:42:10] Zealand gov­ern­ment.

[00:42:11] Tony Kynas­ton: It was orig­i­nal­ly called the Gov­ern­ment Life Insur­ance Depart­ment, and it was. Start­ed to pro­vide life insur­ance to New Zealan­ders, and I’m not sure if [00:42:20] it’s the case, I did­n’t look back into why it was start­ed, but a lot of life insur­ance com­pa­nies were start­ed back in the 18 hun­dreds and they all came out of what was called wid­ows and orphans in, I think [00:42:30] Aberdeen and Scot­land, where for the first time.

[00:42:32] Tony Kynas­ton: A local com­mu­ni­ty decid­ed to get togeth­er and cre­ate a pool, which could then pay out the wid­ows of peo­ple who were, um, who were [00:42:40] orphaned or who were, uh, wid­owed and or orphaned because of, um, some­thing that hap­pened to their hus­band in the, uh, you know, in the indus­tri­al age or in, [00:42:50] um, down the mines or what­ev­er.

[00:42:51] Tony Kynas­ton: So it was kind of an inter­est­ing con­cept and it spread wide­ly around the world, and this is prob­a­bly what led to its estab­lish­ment in New Zealand. [00:43:00] Uh, con­tin­ued on being a gov­ern­ment, um, owned busi­ness through to the 1980s expand­ed nation­wide. Built a very strong brand and strong rep­u­ta­tion as [00:43:10] being a, um, a safe pair of hands and a good place to buy life insur­ance from.

[00:43:15] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, it was one of the major finan­cial insti­tu­tions in New Zealand, uh, for a long time. [00:43:20] Prob­a­bly still is actu­al­ly in 19, in the 1980s it was, uh, renamed Tow­er Cor­po­ra­tion, and it was part of, in [00:43:30] 1987, it was renamed Tow­er. Part of. A lot of, um, broad­er eco­nom­ic reforms that were going on in New Zealand at the time.

[00:43:37] Tony Kynas­ton: And Cam, you may have heard the term Roger [00:43:40] Nomics, um, from the eight­ies in New Zealand, when David Longe was Prime Min­is­ter, his, uh, his, uh, trea­sur­er was a guy called Roger d Roger Dou­glas, sor­ry. [00:43:50] And, uh, he sort of cham­pi­oned this idea of, uh, slim­ming down the pub­lic ser­vice and, and pri­va­tiz­ing or cor­po­ra­tiz­ing gov­ern­ment assets as a [00:44:00] way of, um.

[00:44:01] Tony Kynas­ton: Get­ting rev­enue for the gov­ern­ment, but also mak­ing those com­pa­nies per­form bet­ter. So back then, this was one of those, uh, co [00:44:10] cor­po­ra­ti­za­tion that occurred, uh, and orig­i­nal­ly it was mutu­al­ized. So what that means is that the own­er­ship was trans­ferred from the gov­ern­ment to the pol­i­cy hold­ers and they effec­tive­ly owned [00:44:20] the insur­er.

[00:44:21] Tony Kynas­ton: But then about 10 years lat­er, there was a big wave of demu­tu­al­iza­tion, includ­ing the com­pa­nies like a MP and Aus­tralia. And in [00:44:30] 1999, those pol­i­cy hold­ers list­ed their com­pa­nies on the rel­e­vant stock exchanges and they became, uh, stock­hold­ers and pub­licly then trad­ed their stock. [00:44:40] And, uh, that was good for.

[00:44:44] Tony Kynas­ton: Pol­i­cy hold­ers who did­n’t real­ly want to be a share­hold­er in the com­pa­ny, they could sell their stock. But also there are a lot of, [00:44:50] um, staff and peo­ple asso­ci­at­ed with the com­pa­nies who could then trade stock that they, uh, could do in a fair­ly, um, reg­i­ment­ed way before they were pub­licly [00:45:00] list­ed. Uh, so it began life as a demu­tu­al­ized com­pa­ny and a list­ing in, uh, 1999.

[00:45:07] Tony Kynas­ton: At, at the same time bought a com­pa­ny called [00:45:10] Nation­al Insur­ance Com­pa­ny in New Zealand, which, um, uh, gave it, uh, uh. Access to gen­er­al insur­ance prod­ucts. And that was when [00:45:20] it start­ed to piv­ot away from life insur­ance. Uh, and it also expand­ed into Aus­tralia at that time and the Pacif­ic Islands. And, uh, hav­ing lived in New Zealand, I know they have a, [00:45:30] a fair­ly, a much stronger rela­tion­ship with the Pacif­ic Islands than we do here, I guess.

[00:45:34] Tony Kynas­ton: ’cause they’re clos­er and they’re the biggest econ­o­my in the area. Uh, and there’s a lot more, uh, [00:45:40] migra­tion, that migra­tion between the Pacif­ic Islands and New Zealand than, than there is in Aus­tralia. 2006 though, uh, there was, um, it was decid­ed to [00:45:50] sim­pli­fy the busi­ness and there was a split between the Aus­tralian and New Zealand busi­ness­es.

[00:45:54] Tony Kynas­ton: And, uh, the Aus­tralian gen­er­al insur­ance busi­ness was sold to a [00:46:00] IG and even­tu­al­ly. The Aus­tralian life insur­ance busi­ness, which con­tin­ued to use the Tow­er Tow­er Aus­tralia brand, but was sold to the [00:46:10] Japan­ese insur­er, Dai­ichi Life. And we spoke about Dai­ichi life before. I think it was in regard to Chal­lenger Finan­cial, who’s on the buy list.

[00:46:18] Tony Kynas­ton: And I think Dai­ichi, I got [00:46:20] the, my mem­o­ry serves me. Uh, they own a share­hold­ing in that, but they, they have been invest­ing in Aus­tralia com­pa­nies for a while now. So they bought, uh, the life insur­ance busi­ness of Tow­er Aus­tralia, [00:46:30] and that left, uh, tow­er, the busi­ness we’re talk­ing about now. Basi­cal­ly focused on New Zealand and the Pacif­ic, and basi­cal­ly, uh, a gen­er­al insur­ance [00:46:40] com­pa­ny and pret­ty much out of life insur­ance.

[00:46:42] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh. From 2010 to 2015, they slimmed down even more. So they [00:46:50] had oth­er busi­ness units like med­ical insur­ance, which they offloaded. They had a funds man­age­ment busi­ness. ’cause don’t for­get, insur­ance com­pa­nies have a float, par­tic­u­lar­ly life insur­ance [00:47:00] com­pa­nies, and they there­fore have funds to invest. But they sold that arm of their busi­ness.

[00:47:05] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, and in 2013, they sold the life insur­ance busi­ness to Fideli­ty [00:47:10] Life Assur­ance Com­pa­ny. So from 2013, they’ve become a pure gen­er­al insur­er. Um, but around that same sort of time, they [00:47:20] start­ed to expe­ri­ence a lot of exter­nal pres­sures. And the notable one was in 2010, 2011, when there was a big earth­quake in Can­ter­bury, in [00:47:30] Christchurch.

[00:47:30] Tony Kynas­ton: And, um, I did read the annu­al report prep­ping for the show. And they, they still refer to the Can­ter­bury Earth­quake and pro­vi­sions they’ve made for [00:47:40] pay­outs. Even in today’s, um, annu­al report. So that’s been a long tail event for them and a very big event for them. But it, it meant that, um, their, their rein­sur­ance costs [00:47:50] went up.

[00:47:50] Tony Kynas­ton: It real­ly hurt their prof­itabil­i­ty ’cause they’re hav­ing to pay out a lot in claims and, uh, the peri­od gen­er­al­ly bal­ance, uh, dam­age their bal­ance sheet and invest their con­fi­dence for the [00:48:00] busi­ness. Um, but they kind of strug­gled on from there. Even though in the late sort of 2000 and teens, so the 2016 to 2020, [00:48:10] there were a lot, um, a lot more weath­er relat­ed claims than nor­mal big earn­ings, volatil­i­ty, uh, high­er, um, costs of rein­sur­ance, which is what [00:48:20] insur­ance com­pa­nies often do to try and smooth their results.

[00:48:22] Tony Kynas­ton: They’ll pass on some of the insur­ance risk to a, a rein­sur­er who will put it all onto a pool around the world. And if, you know, they, [00:48:30] they bal­ance their risk by say­ing if New Zealand has an event, then Cal­i­for­nia might not, for exam­ple. Um, and then, uh, tow­er pays them a price and charges a, [00:48:40] a, uh, a mar­gin on that.

[00:48:42] Tony Kynas­ton: But what man­age­ment did suc­cess­ful­ly dur­ing that whole peri­od of strug­gling with bal­ance sheet, um, items and large claims, was to [00:48:50] tight­en their under­writ­ing skills. So they now have a, a risk base pre­mi­um mod­el, which is a lot stronger than it was in the past. They put pre­mi­ums up [00:49:00] and again, they tried to sim­pli­fy their oper­a­tions back to the core.

[00:49:03] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, but it was seen as a prob­lem stock dur­ing this time as, as an unprof­itable com­pa­ny. And many [00:49:10] peo­ple focused on the fact that they would nev­er be able to get things right, uh, because of the, the nature of, um, of cat­a­stro­phe, uh, in insur­ance in New Zealand. But they con­tin­ued [00:49:20] to, um. Sharp­en their, their pric­ing and their cost base.

[00:49:25] Tony Kynas­ton: And then I guess in the last sort of six or sev­en years, they’ve done a lot, uh, [00:49:30] to trans­form the com­pa­ny dig­i­tal­ly. And they launched, uh, my Tow­er as a, uh, an online plat­form to get your insur­ance back in 2019. [00:49:40] Uh, they’ve focused on push­ing that and that han­dles a lot of online claims and, and peo­ple get­ting quotes and tak­ing out, uh, their, their poli­cies.

[00:49:48] Tony Kynas­ton: That’s reduced [00:49:50] costs. They focused on the Pacif­ic, um, islands, so they took full con­trol of an insur­ance busi­ness. They had a, a large share­hold in, up until about 2021, [00:50:00] called Nation­al Pacif­ic Insur­ance, which oper­at­ed across Fiji, Samoa, Ton­ga, Van­u­atu, and some of the oth­er islands. But they bought out their minor­i­ty share­hold­ers and they have full [00:50:10] own­er­ship of that, and that’s stream­lined that busi­ness for them.

[00:50:13] Tony Kynas­ton: And they can, again, look to, uh, take costs out of it. Uh. I think [00:50:20] it’s fair to say now in the mid 2020s, that all of those things have led to, uh, a much high­er return on equi­ty. It’s up in the sort of 30% plus range this [00:50:30] year. Um, much, um, bet­ter share­hold­er return. So very strong div­i­dend at the moment, and they’re doing a buy­back and a much improved bal­ance sheet.[00:50:40]

[00:50:40] Tony Kynas­ton: So that brings us to today, but I think it’s fair to say, you know, over the last 150 years, they were gov­ern­ment owned. They had a good brand. They [00:50:50] demu­tu­al­ized, they list­ed. The Can­ter­bury Earth­quakes came along, they suf­fered all sorts of neg­a­tive con­se­quences for that. Then they bat­tled real­ly hard for the next 10 or [00:51:00] 15 years to take costs out and now they’ve, they’ve sort of, we’re see­ing the ben­e­fit of all that.

[00:51:04] Tony Kynas­ton: But the mar­ket still is look­ing a bit, um, through a lens of, of the Can­ter­bury [00:51:10] earth­quake and the dif­fi­cul­ties that an insur­ance com­pa­ny can have in New Zealand. So it tends to trade at a much low­er mul­ti­ple than its com­peti­tors. So for exam­ple, at the moment, [00:51:20] um, PEs of Tow­er are sort of sev­en or eight times com­pared to IAG, which is dou­ble that 15 to 16 times.

[00:51:27] Tony Kynas­ton: And Sun­corp, which is kind of around that same [00:51:30] num­ber as well. So, uh, kind of trades on half the mul­ti­ple or half the val­u­a­tion of its big­ger com­peti­tors, part­ly ’cause it’s a small­er com­pa­ny and part­ly because of this, um, his­to­ry [00:51:40] of cat­a­stro­phes wip­ing out its prof­it. Uh, the kind of reverse hap­pened in, um, 2025 and.

[00:51:47] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, the num­bers are actu­al­ly for [00:51:50] Sep­tem­ber year end. This com­pa­ny has a Sep­tem­ber finan­cial year end. Uh, we will get some more num­bers fair­ly soon, which will be the March half num­bers, but I’m using. Uh, the [00:52:00] full year from Sep­tem­ber, 2025, um, and the kind of reverse has hap­pened for them in that the weath­er was kind to them.

[00:52:07] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, and there were no nat­ur­al cat­a­stro­phes of any [00:52:10] repute or any, um, large scale in New Zealand in 2025. So rev­enue was up 6%. Net prof­it was up 13%. Uh, pre­mi­ums were [00:52:20] up 2% or the gross writ­ten pre­mi­ums were up 2%. Cus­tomer num­bers were up 4%. Um, what they call their busi­ness as usu­al claims ratio was, uh, [00:52:30] 41% down from 48%, which means less claims.

[00:52:34] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, and a met­ric that’s worth. Fol­low­ing for insur­ance com­pa­nies called the Com­bined Oper­at­ing Ratio, or [00:52:40] the core was down to 74% from 79%. So that, that basi­cal­ly com­bines what they pay out in claims and their oper­at­ing costs as [00:52:50] a per­cent­age of what they take in. Um, and that’s, so a, a, a low­er num­bers good means less costs, and it’s, it’s actu­al­ly very low at the moment.

[00:52:59] Tony Kynas­ton: So all [00:53:00] those things worked well for them, um, in 2025, uh, which is why the num­bers look good. I, I guess from a QAV point of view, um, I think [00:53:10] it’s fair to say though that even man­age­ment is say­ing that it’s unlike­ly that such a per­fect, uh, storm or or non-per­fect storm, um, is gonna con­tin­ue. So they’re [00:53:20] guid­ing.

[00:53:20] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, down from the cur­rent results. So I think the mar­ket has, has tak­en that in its stride and the share prices down from its peaks at the end of last [00:53:30] year, um, when the, uh, results were announced. So, um, it’s, but it’s still quite resilient and, and, and, uh, it’s still good val­ue com­pared to its, uh, [00:53:40] uh, com­pa­ra­ble insur­ance com­pa­nies.

[00:53:42] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, so what else can I say about them? Uh, uh, yeah, man­age­ment guid­ance [00:53:50] is down. They’ve already pulled back. I’ll go to the QAV num­bers now, prob­a­bly is the next best thing to go through. So I’ve used the stock price of a dol­lar 56.5, which was the price [00:54:00] this morn­ing. I think they’re up a cou­ple of per­cent today.

[00:54:02] Tony Kynas­ton: As, as is the mar­ket gen­er­al­ly. Uh, IV one is a dol­lar 49 and there’s no IV two ’cause there’s no con­sen­sus tar­get for this [00:54:10] com­pa­ny. Uh, so we can’t. Score it for being, um, below IV one. We don’t have IV two. I should call out. The fact ADT is rea­son­ably light. Um, ’cause I’m [00:54:20] talk­ing about the Aus­tralian A DT.

[00:54:22] Tony Kynas­ton: It’s 113,000 per day. So it won’t, won’t suit uh, big investors, but it’ll suit a lot of peo­ple lis­ten­ing. Uh, [00:54:30] it is, there are is more trade on the NSX, but I’m using the Aus­tralian num­bers here. You open this com­pa­ny, div­i­dend yield is up as high as 13.6% at the moment. [00:54:40] Um, so it’s had a mon­ster div­i­dend. Um.

[00:54:42] Tony Kynas­ton: After the finan­cial results, half your div­i­dend was 14 cents com­pared to about 5 cents in the pre, the pri­or year for the final [00:54:50] div­i­dend. So more than two times, near­ly three times what, uh, what nor­mal­ly hap­pens. And giv­en that man­age­ment is guid­ing down this year, try­ing to get it back to sort of a, [00:55:00] um, a nor­mal­ized basis for for prof­it, then the, um, the yield will, will drop, I think, um, next year as well.

[00:55:07] Tony Kynas­ton: But even using [00:55:10] the num­bers that man­age­ment are guid­ing to, I think if they con­tin­ue to pay out the same sort of ratio, we’re still talk­ing about a com­pa­ny trad­ing on sort of mid to high sin­gle dig­its [00:55:20] next year in terms of its div­i­dend yields, some­thing like around sev­en or 8% per­haps. Um, so it’s still a good yield play­er.

[00:55:27] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, and they’re also doing a buy­back. So, um, [00:55:30] they, they’ve returned a lot of the, so I guess wind­fall prof­its, you might call them from 2025 back to share­hold­ers, which is a good thing to see. Stock Doc­tor finan­cial health is strong and [00:55:40] steady Zedia. Don’t, um, rank the ASX busi­ness. They just look at the New Zealand list­ing.

[00:55:46] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, they give you the qual­i­ty score, qual­i­ty rank of 74, [00:55:50] uh, but their F score is sev­en out of nine, so I could­n’t quite. Joined the dots on that one. High F score nor­mal­ly means a bet­ter qual­i­ty rank, but over­all the rank is 98, and that’s dri­ven by [00:56:00] high val­ue and momen­tum rank­ings. So 90 eight’s very good.

[00:56:04] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, going back to our scor­ing PE ratio is 5.39, not the high­est or the [00:56:10] low­est over six halves, so it does­n’t score for that. Like­wise, net equi­ty is not con­sis­tent­ly increas­ing, so they can’t score it for that. I checked the shares and they [00:56:20] were down 10% actu­al­ly, um, over 12 months. So we’re scor­ing up for a buy­back and the, the buy­back was announced and in effect, uh, and I [00:56:30] Stock Doc­tor used Jan­u­ary 20, 26 num­bers and Jan­u­ary, 2025 num­bers for that prop cap is 4.25 times, so very good.

[00:56:38] Tony Kynas­ton: Uh, cash pay­out [00:56:40] from this com­pa­ny. Net equi­ty per share is 90 cents. Um, and. Which means we can’t buy it at book val­ue and even at book plus $32 17, so we [00:56:50] can’t buy it for that either. So we can’t score it for that. Don’t have a fore­cast EPS growth. Uh, so we can’t score it for growth over pe. If we did, I’d [00:57:00] expect it to be low­er any­way, so that might, um, mean a man­u­al minus one for growth.

[00:57:05] Tony Kynas­ton: But I haven’t put that in at this stage. Uh, [00:57:10] and you know, you might want to, if you are look­ing at this com­pa­ny clos­er, uh, the yield is over the PE and that’s always a good sign of val­ue I think. So, um, we score it for that [00:57:20] does­n’t have an own­er founder ’cause it goes way back, um, more than 150 years over­all, nine out of 13 for qual­i­ty or 69% and a QAV score of [00:57:30] 0.16.

[00:57:30] Tony Kynas­ton: So it’s not high up the bile list, but, um, it was one of the only things we had­n’t done before and, uh, had turned up from its recent [00:57:40] pull­back. In terms of risks and oppor­tu­ni­ties, obvi­ous­ly the key risk has got­ta be, um, anoth­er earth­quake or cyclones or floods or what­ev­er that can hap­pen in the Pacif­ic or New Zealand.[00:57:50]

[00:57:50] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, when those things hap­pen, they don’t just hurt, uh, in the year it hap­pens because of claims pay­out, but gen­er­al­ly they hurt because rein­sur­ance costs go [00:58:00] up. Uh, and because, uh, peo­ple dump the stock ’cause it’s gonna be a rough time. Uh, and there’s claims volatil­i­ty. Um, and it, so it is a kind of stock that [00:58:10] can be very cycli­cal and one bad year can wipe out prof­its and in the worst case could, um, neces­si­tate a cap­i­tal rais­ing.

[00:58:17] Tony Kynas­ton: So they’re all sort of nor­mal [00:58:20] insur­ance risks. They’re per­haps high, more high­light­ed because as I said, IAG and, and the oth­er is some corp in Aus­tralia or big­ger insur­ance com­pa­nies, even though they take a ham­mer­ing when there’s [00:58:30] a cyclone or a flood in Aus­tralia, um, they’re, they’re much big­ger to be able to weath­er those, um, events.

[00:58:36] Tony Kynas­ton: And a small­er com­pa­ny like Tow­er is. Uh, and [00:58:40] there’s also the dual list­ing aspect to con­sid­er. There’s. I could­n’t find any talk of remov­ing the Aus­tralian list­ing, so I don’t think it’s on the cards in the future, but there’s [00:58:50] always the risk that at some stage, New Zealand might decide to can­cel the Aus­tralian list­ing, in which case you’ll be, um, either trans­ferred back to the New Zealand exchange or your [00:59:00] a forced sell­er.

[00:59:01] Tony Kynas­ton: And that may not come at your time of choos­ing. So I’m gonna list that as a risk just to be aware of. Uh, but there are pos­i­tives for this com­pa­ny as well. It’s, it’s real­ly done a good job, I [00:59:10] think, uh, in terms of risk pric­ing, in terms of reduc­ing costs by going online, um, and, uh, all the oth­er things it’s been doing in terms of slim­ming down the [00:59:20] busi­ness.

[00:59:20] Tony Kynas­ton: And if you look at it, share price, it has rerat­ed, uh, upwards, uh, cul­mi­nat­ing on its lat­est results in Sep­tem­ber, which was prob­a­bly around the peak. And [00:59:30] then they pro­vid­ed guid­ance to say, Hey, we’ve had a good yield. We don’t know if it will con­tin­ue. And the share prices has come back, but it’s still even under that sce­nario scor­ing well on our, on our [00:59:40] QAV, um.

[00:59:40] Tony Kynas­ton: Score for, uh, tow­er insur­ance.

[00:59:44] Cameron Reil­ly: Just wait­ing for the fan above me to wind down. Thank you, Tony [00:59:50] Tow­er. Very good. Uh, before we get into after hours, can you pull up the bread lat­er and have a look at [01:00:00] CGF? it and I remem­bered that I think Trent or some­body asked me what I thought of CGF. It’s [01:00:10] byline. Sor­ry. Cell line is just shut up.

[01:00:14] Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

[01:00:15] Cameron Reil­ly: It’s offi­cial­ly a sell,

[01:00:18] Tony Kynas­ton: [01:00:20] Yep.

[01:00:20] Cameron Reil­ly: but it’s low, is actu­al­ly, it’s low trough is actu­al­ly back in Jan­u­ary 22 at [01:00:30] $5 72. And then I think the next is $5 82 in Feb­ru­ary 25. But I think the flat flat­line rule is prob­a­bly [01:00:40] push­ing the ator to use, uh, March 25 as the L one. Are you, [01:00:50] you hap­py with that?

[01:00:51] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Looks fine to me. Yeah. Yep. It’ll be, it’ll, it’s an inter­est­ing graph. It’ll be inter­est­ing if we get a, [01:01:00] um, uh, if it cross­es the byline, in which case it’ll be above the byline and below the cell line. We don’t see too many of those.

[01:01:09] Cameron Reil­ly: [01:01:10] Well, if it bounces back up again, uh, you’ll have a new trough and the cell

[01:01:14] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. True. Yeah.

[01:01:16] Cameron Reil­ly: line,

[01:01:17] Tony Kynas­ton: point. Yep.

[01:01:19] Cameron Reil­ly: [01:01:20] um, which case it’ll be back above its byline. It’s, I own it in a cou­ple of port­fo­lios, uh, includ­ing most super and, [01:01:30] uh, the dum­my port­fo­lio and a light port­fo­lio. And it’s down 12% for all of them.

[01:01:35] Cameron Reil­ly: ’cause I bought them all on the same day, a month ago, 2020 4th [01:01:40] of Feb­ru­ary. So, yeah. Uh, has not been a hap­py expe­di­tion. A lit­tle bit like my per­son­al run, CGF, [01:01:50] thought it was gonna be, uh, a quick win and it’s turned out to be a quick dis­as­ter.

[01:01:55] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, I, I’m sur­prised CGF has come down, um, [01:02:00] because if you recall, it was bid­ding for pep­per mon­ey and then it low­ered the bid and then it, um, can­celed the bid or pep­per mon­ey came out and reject­ed the bid, and I thought the [01:02:10] shares had bounced up on that basis. But it must have come down again since then for some rea­son.

[01:02:14] Cameron Reil­ly: well, every­thing’s down.

[01:02:15] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[01:02:16] Cameron Reil­ly: just

[01:02:16] Tony Kynas­ton: Trump.

[01:02:17] Cameron Reil­ly: sell off. Yeah. Yeah. Iran, [01:02:20] Trump.

[01:02:20] Tony Kynas­ton: Look, I think, I think these are all valid ques­tions. You’re ask­ing about the bread lat­er, and I think we prob­a­bly ask very sim­i­lar ques­tions back in COVID times.

[01:02:28] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

[01:02:28] Tony Kynas­ton: It’s a sign of [01:02:30] volatil­i­ty and, and I think we can be very micro­scop­ic about these rule app appli­ca­tions, but if you step back and say all the rules were applied dur­ing COVID, [01:02:40] even though we had lots of ques­tions about them and we came through that.

[01:02:42] Tony Kynas­ton: Okay, I think it’ll be the case again here.

[01:02:44] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. Alright. Thank you for that. Well, [01:02:50] after rows, Tony,

[01:02:51] Tony Kynas­ton: I did notice a ques­tion, anoth­er ques­tion from Dar­ryl came in late. He want­ed, uh, once a pulled pork on Pete, so I’m hap­py to do that next week. I [01:03:00] did­n’t get it in time. Sor­ry, Dar­ryl, for this week. I almost did. I almost did Pete, but I think it actu­al­ly went down a bit. Um, I’ll have a look at it. For some [01:03:10] rea­son I did­n’t do it.

[01:03:11] Tony Kynas­ton: Um. PPCI think the code is, lemme just have a quick look. No, no, no. It should be, it [01:03:20] should be, um, doable. It’s, it’s a, a buy. Um, so I’ll do it next week. Um, even if it’s turned down a bit. Again, it’s worth look­ing at. And again, things come in [01:03:30] threes. It’s uh, it’s anoth­er west­ern Aus­tralian prop­er­ty devel­op­er, and we, we’ve talked about Fin­bar and Fleet­wood, I think, I think [01:03:40] pos­si­bly Fleet­wood’s based in Perth as well.

[01:03:42] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, and this is anoth­er one. So, uh, again, things kind of hap­pen in sec­tors on the buy list, don’t [01:03:50] they?

[01:03:50] Cameron Reil­ly: They do. They do. The um, US stock that I’m gonna do today is, uh, sim­i­lar to oth­er things that we’ve seen [01:04:00] too. Com­mer­cial vehi­cle group, and

[01:04:01] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

[01:04:02] Cameron Reil­ly: I added them to the US light port­fo­lio yes­ter­day. They’re up 20% today.

[01:04:09] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh [01:04:10] real­ly?

[01:04:11] Cameron Reil­ly: They’d already dou­bled in the pre­vi­ous three or four weeks.

[01:04:15] Tony Kynas­ton: Wow.

[01:04:17] Cameron Reil­ly: they’re up 20%, anoth­er 20% today.

[01:04:19] Cameron Reil­ly: [01:04:20] So, yeah, it’s, it’s a good sto­ry. Um, after hours, Tony, you got a lot of things, a lot of hors­es, some music.

[01:04:29] Tony Kynas­ton: [01:04:30] Yeah, so, uh, I guess I was busy. I was, maybe I’d just put more in here than I nor­mal­ly would, um, because Jen­ny was away and I was spend­ing more time on [01:04:40] my own, had a look at a series called Hijack on Apple Stream­ing, which, um, I’m not gonna give a strong rec­om­men­da­tion to, but we’ve watched both series now and it’s [01:04:50] pret­ty good.

[01:04:50] Tony Kynas­ton: Strong B grade sort of stuff with Idris Elby. Yeah.

[01:04:53] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

[01:04:54] Tony Kynas­ton: Um, but yeah, lots of it’s, it’s pret­ty basic fair, but lots of twists and turns and sur­pris­es [01:05:00] and cliffhang­er. So I, I kind of enjoyed it at least enough to watch two series of.

[01:05:05] Cameron Reil­ly: Right.

[01:05:06] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. So check it out if you can’t find much else to, to [01:05:10] watch.

[01:05:10] Cameron Reil­ly: Well, we just start­ed watch­ing Night of the Sev­en King­doms based on your

[01:05:15] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, and

[01:05:17] Cameron Reil­ly: Cou­ple of episodes, maybe three episodes [01:05:20] into it. Yeah. Enjoy­ing it.

[01:05:21] Tony Kynas­ton: yeah.

[01:05:21] Cameron Reil­ly: It’s a slow start, kind of, but

[01:05:23] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm-hmm.

[01:05:24] Cameron Reil­ly: inter­est­ing to get back into the Geor­gia r Mar­tin Worlds [01:05:30] and all of that kind.

[01:05:31] Cameron Reil­ly: A lot of, you know, vio­lence and

[01:05:33] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[01:05:34] Cameron Reil­ly: stuff and, you know, all that kind of graph­ic stuff. Yeah.

[01:05:38] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[01:05:39] Cameron Reil­ly: Fun.

[01:05:39] Tony Kynas­ton: [01:05:40] It is fun. I, I, we enjoyed that. What else have I got? Yeah. I, I, um, being, giv­ing, uh, Janie Mitchel­l’s Blue a spin and [01:05:50] Jeff Beck­’s Truth a Spin. Um, I think I came across some­one doing a cov­er of, uh, Cal­i­for­nia in my stream. So I went back and got Janie Mitchell out. [01:06:00] It holds up. Its good album.

[01:06:01] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh yeah. I love Blue

[01:06:03] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[01:06:04] Cameron Reil­ly: And I love Jeff Beck. I, truth not one of my favorite albums, but, uh, wired, [01:06:10] his sort of.

[01:06:10] Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

[01:06:11] Cameron Reil­ly: Jazz for­ays

[01:06:14] Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

[01:06:14] Cameron Reil­ly: late sev­en­ties, ear­ly eight­ies. I always go back to, I know them. Like I know [01:06:20] those albums for note, like kind of

[01:06:23] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, real­ly?

[01:06:24] Cameron Reil­ly: to them so many times.

[01:06:25] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. I love his ver­sion of pork pie hat

[01:06:28] Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

[01:06:28] Cameron Reil­ly: sorts of things.

[01:06:29] Tony Kynas­ton: [01:06:30] Well, I had­n’t because, uh, he, I dun­no, just I heard some of his stuff and, and, um, come across him when he was play­ing with some­body else. But [01:06:40] I found out truth, I think was the first time that Rod Stew­art and, uh, who’s the guy from the Small faces and the Rolling Stones, the gui­tarist, um,

[01:06:48] Cameron Reil­ly: Wood,

[01:06:49] Tony Kynas­ton: Ron [01:06:50] Wood, Ron­nie Wood played togeth­er with him.

[01:06:51] Cameron Reil­ly: right?

[01:06:52] Tony Kynas­ton: uh, that’s why I went back and had a lis­ten to it and it’s, it’s patchy. It’s got some pret­ty ordi­nary sort of stuff on it, but, um, there’s [01:07:00] some real­ly good stuff as well.

[01:07:01] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah. Jeff Beck was one of the greats. Man. Just what, like an incre, a crazy career

[01:07:07] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[01:07:08] Cameron Reil­ly: So wide [01:07:10] rang­ing and, uh, was such a, not only amaz­ing gui­tarist, but also just did so many dif­fer­ent styles of stuff like the, the, the, the jazz fusion stuff that he did for a [01:07:20] while there, which appar­ent­ly he hat­ed. He lat­er in

[01:07:22] Tony Kynas­ton: Real­ly?

[01:07:23] Cameron Reil­ly: doing that.

[01:07:23] Tony Kynas­ton: Huh?

[01:07:24] Cameron Reil­ly: He always used to talk shit about those albums. But I love them. I’ve always loved them since I dis­cov­ered them when I was in my [01:07:30] late teens, ear­ly twen­ties.

[01:07:31] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Okay. I’ll check him out. I haven’t real­ly checked it out.

[01:07:34] Cameron Reil­ly: have you lis­tened to Rine yet?

[01:07:38] Tony Kynas­ton: No.

[01:07:39] Cameron Reil­ly: [01:07:40] Yeah. These haven’t come across your feeds. They’re sort of the hottest meme trend band.

[01:07:44] Cameron Reil­ly: They’re at a Que­bec, they two guys, they wear [01:07:50] full cos­tumes and masks, paper mache with big noses. They’re paint­ed in dots from head to toe [01:08:00] and their music is crazy. It’s just a drum­mer and a gui­tarist. But the gui­tarist has got this instru­ment that’s. gui­tar down the bot­tom and a nor­mal gui­tar up [01:08:10] the top. But it’s, uh, semi­tone fret­ted. So they’re play­ing a lot of this semi­tone. And it reminds me, it’s like this weird [01:08:20] avant­garde jazzy funk fusion kind of thing. And it reminds me for some rea­son of zap­per. just, [01:08:30] know, kind of very, very weird and avant-garde, but funky at the same time. And when they do inter­views, [01:08:40] they speak in a made up space lan­guage and their man­ag­er trans­lates for them into French, what they’re [01:08:50] say­ing.

[01:08:51] Tony Kynas­ton: So prob­a­bly can’t speak French.

[01:08:53] Cameron Reil­ly: No, I, no, I just think it’s like one of these art con­cept. It’s

[01:08:57] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, right.

[01:08:58] Cameron Reil­ly: daft Punk [01:09:00] or, um,

[01:09:01] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, right.

[01:09:03] Cameron Reil­ly: want their iden­ti­ties to be known for what­ev­er rea­son, and so they don’t even let their voic­es real­ly be heard. [01:09:10] But the music’s great. They’ve got two albums out, vol­ume one and vol­ume two. I just dis­cov­ered ’em a few days ago.

[01:09:14] Cameron Reil­ly: I’ve been lis­ten­ing to them a lot while I’ve been here doing chores around the house, replac­ing fly screens and [01:09:20] trim­ming hedges and chop­ping down banana flow­ers and stuff like that for my mum.

[01:09:24] Tony Kynas­ton: Nice.

[01:09:25] Cameron Reil­ly: it’s good stuff. It’s, it’s kind of it instru­men­tal. It’s all instru­men­tal, but [01:09:30] it’s funky, jazzy, avant-garde, crazy kin­da stuff, which

[01:09:33] Tony Kynas­ton: have to write down that name for me and send it through. ’cause I, my French isn’t good enough to remem­ber it.

[01:09:39] Cameron Reil­ly: and, and the way [01:09:40] that they say it is. Yeah, I will, I’ll send you a link

[01:09:46] Tony Kynas­ton: All right. Thank you.

[01:09:47] Cameron Reil­ly: how the, how the hors­es going. Oh, how was your birth­day by the [01:09:50] way?

[01:09:50] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, it was good. Good. Well, before we get onto that, I have one more record to talk about, um, Moby Future Qui­et, which, um, a.

[01:09:59] Cameron Reil­ly: [01:10:00] No, not real­ly. You know, I’ve nev­er real­ly dug into Moby. I know like some of his hits from 20 years ago, but I’ve nev­er real­ly, you know, lis­tened to the cat­a­log.

[01:10:09] Tony Kynas­ton: [01:10:10] I love, maybe I, yeah, and this is a, this is a bit dif­fer­ent for him. It’s a much qui­eter, ambi­ent sort of music, uh, record. Um, but I’m just [01:10:20] have a play­ing when I’m work­ing. But yeah, it’s real­ly good, real­ly qui­et. Just enough melody to be inter­est­ing.

[01:10:26] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah.

[01:10:26] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[01:10:27] Cameron Reil­ly: I’ll check it out.

[01:10:28] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh, I love Moby. Some of his, [01:10:30] some of his albums, even when they did­n’t have hits on them, were just fan­tas­tic.

[01:10:33] Cameron Reil­ly: Yeah, there you go.

[01:10:34] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah.

[01:10:35] Cameron Reil­ly: a DJ or is he actu­al­ly like Right. Instru­men­tal­ly stuff.

[01:10:39] Tony Kynas­ton: [01:10:40] Um, I

[01:10:40] Cameron Reil­ly: of him as just a dj.

[01:10:41] Tony Kynas­ton: kind of, yeah, I, I, I mean, when I’ve seen him inter­view years ago, he said he would put clips togeth­er. He would take a melody from like the [01:10:50] 1920s and a singer from the 1930s, and then over­lay them and try and com­bine them. So I don’t know if he’s still doing that or whether he is actu­al­ly writ­ing stuff him­self.

[01:10:59] Tony Kynas­ton: These days, you can’t real­ly [01:11:00] tell from the old.

[01:11:01] Cameron Reil­ly: Right.

[01:11:02] Tony Kynas­ton: And I haven’t checked the line of notes to see if he’s cred­it­ed on it, so I’m not sure.

[01:11:05] Cameron Reil­ly: Hmm. Okay.

[01:11:07] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, so that’s good. Um, yeah, [01:11:10] birth­day was good. Had, uh, din­ner with, uh, Alex and Sean and Jen­ny. They came down Fri­day night. It’s, it gets busy down here at East­er time ’cause it’s hol­i­days and, [01:11:20] um, was hard to get a restau­rant book­ing because it was good Fri­day.

[01:11:23] Tony Kynas­ton: We got a restau­rant book­ing and a nice restau­rant. Had a love­ly din­ner, which was love­ly. And then it was pret­ty qui­et after that. [01:11:30] Um, Alex went back and, um, yeah, Jen was home from Japan. She’d been away for a cou­ple of weeks, so she told me all [01:11:40] about that, which was inter­est­ing. They, they went fab­ric shop­ping a lot in Kyoto, um, which was good.

[01:11:46] Cameron Reil­ly: Did she bring you back a, uh, samu­rai sword or [01:11:50] some­thing?

[01:11:50] Tony Kynas­ton: no, just a t‑shirt, the, with the giant wave on it. Uh, clas­sic Japan­ese print.

[01:11:57] Cameron Reil­ly: the

[01:11:57] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Yeah. [01:12:00] And anoth­er shirt as well, which have got incred­i­bly small neck holes for some rea­son. Like they’re the right, right sizes, but like I’ve got­ta

[01:12:07] Cameron Reil­ly: incred­i­bly big neck. Well,

[01:12:08] Tony Kynas­ton: pos­si­bly, I’ve got­ta [01:12:10] pull it over my head real­ly hard to put them on.

[01:12:14] Tony Kynas­ton: It’s not a prob­lem I usu­al­ly have with choirs, but any­way.

[01:12:17] Cameron Reil­ly: right?

[01:12:17] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. So yeah, it’s been good. [01:12:20] But yeah, good horse rac­ing over the week­end. Sat­ur­day was Dom cast today. I know you’re not inter­est­ed, but, um, it was a fab­u­lous resolver cham­pi­on Mabb called Cheese [01:12:30] Ali­bi one, um, by a, along by a lot, which was nice. And there’s a few oth­er good hors­es.

[01:12:36] Tony Kynas­ton: Can’t be only to tell you. And green spaces [01:12:40] were dom­i­nant, um, on the day. And then Kaing Ris­ing, ran in, in Hong Kong Sun­day night, I think, or Mon­day night. Won a [01:12:50] again, dom­i­nant win, 19 in a row, won the Ever­est last year. So yeah, some, some cham­pi­on race hors­es to watch over the week­end, which I loved.

[01:12:59] Cameron Reil­ly: [01:13:00] Oh, good.

[01:13:00] Tony Kynas­ton: Mm.

[01:13:01] Cameron Reil­ly: You don’t own these ones though.

[01:13:02] Tony Kynas­ton: Oh God, I wish I did.

[01:13:03] Tony Kynas­ton: No. Pro­lo. Pro­lo. Doto. I’ve got­ta share. And then she, he ran for on Wednes­day last week.

[01:13:09] Cameron Reil­ly: [01:13:10] Ah,

[01:13:10] Tony Kynas­ton: Hmm. Yeah, that was good.

[01:13:12] Cameron Reil­ly: good win?

[01:13:13] Tony Kynas­ton: Good enough. Yeah.

[01:13:14] Cameron Reil­ly: Good enough.

[01:13:15] Tony Kynas­ton: Gets to go again. Yeah.

[01:13:19] Cameron Reil­ly: I’ve built [01:13:20] a, I’ve built a, an ebook read­er app that’s called lio. close to Qua­lo. Dora­do built my own ebook read­er app, which has AI built into it. I’m sick [01:13:30] of hav­ing to stuff out of an ebook read­er and then go over to an AI app to talk about it, then go back to the book. So I built my own ebook app for my iPad that’s got an [01:13:40] AI read­er in. So, yeah,

[01:13:42] Tony Kynas­ton: what? Takes a feed from Ama­zon or some­where? Kin­dle.

[01:13:47] Cameron Reil­ly: no, it’s just for, uh, [01:13:50] EPUBs and PDFs

[01:13:51] Tony Kynas­ton: Okay.

[01:13:51] Cameron Reil­ly: got, got my own lit­tle library of books that I’ve down­loaded over the years that are un DMed. Don’t believe in DMing for [01:14:00] books. I think that’s evil. So, uh, Uh,

[01:14:06] Tony Kynas­ton: sor­ry. Hang on. What does DRM mean?

[01:14:08] Cameron Reil­ly: dig­i­tal rights [01:14:10] man­age­ment, you get locked into plat­forms like

[01:14:13] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah, okay.

[01:14:13] Cameron Reil­ly: and, you know, Apple’s thing and you can’t move your books around from one read­er to

[01:14:18] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Yep,

[01:14:19] Cameron Reil­ly: [01:14:20] nah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

[01:14:21] Cameron Reil­ly: It’s just crock.

[01:14:22] Tony Kynas­ton: Yep.

[01:14:23] Cameron Reil­ly: crock. Uh uh, uh, uh, well that’s it. Tk, let’s go talk [01:14:30] about, uh, the Amer­i­can mar­kets and I’ll tell you about com­mer­cial vehi­cle group. Uh, it’s a good sto­ry. I think you’ll like this one. It’s a bor­ing sto­ry, anoth­er [01:14:40] bor­ing sto­ry,

[01:14:40] Tony Kynas­ton: Good,

[01:14:41] Cameron Reil­ly: but, uh, good bor­ing sto­ry in a way, of,

[01:14:44] Tony Kynas­ton: good. Val­ue stock thing.

[01:14:46] Cameron Reil­ly: yes, it is a clas­sic, anoth­er clas­sic val­ue stock.

[01:14:49] Cameron Reil­ly: [01:14:50] Nobody died in the mak­ing of this stock for

[01:14:53] Tony Kynas­ton: before you go, giv­en as a a Trump dead­line in about 12 hours time, is he gonna Tuck­er or is it gonna go ahead?

[01:14:59] Cameron Reil­ly: [01:15:00] Well, did, did you, you’ve been fol­low­ing the, uh, Iran Iran­ian embassy in Zim­bab­we’s Twit­ter account.

[01:15:07] Tony Kynas­ton: No.

[01:15:08] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, it’s [01:15:10] gold. He said, uh, they, they’re just troll. They’re giv­ing trolling answers back to him. said, uh, reopen, you know, you open the fuck­ing [01:15:20] strai, you crazy bas­tards. And they said, they replied, sor­ry, we can’t, we’ve lost the keys. And he then he post­ed, he tweet­ed some­thing about Tues­day, [01:15:30] 8:00 PM East­ern time, I think was a tip to his peo­ple about when to sell their all stocks or buy their all stocks or some­thing. the Iran­ian embassy tweet­ed back, [01:15:40] sor­ry, eight PM’s not good for us. Would, uh, one to 2:00 PM uh, or one to 2:00 AM would suit us bet­ter.

[01:15:46] Cameron Reil­ly: Thank you for your atten­tion to this mat­ter. Iran­ian [01:15:50] embassy, they’re just writ­ing trolling respons­es to all of these things. Uh, I dun­no what time­line [01:16:00] we’re in, but it’s a crazy time­line.

[01:16:01] Tony Kynas­ton: it is, isn’t it?

[01:16:02] Cameron Reil­ly: Oh, I’m read­ing a book, uh, by Adri­an Tchaikovsky. The, uh, sci­ence fic­tion writer you may or may not have heard [01:16:10] of

[01:16:10] Tony Kynas­ton: No.

[01:16:11] Cameron Reil­ly: is a rel­a­tive­ly recent book.

[01:16:13] Cameron Reil­ly: I think it came out this year or late last year. It’s called Ser­vice Mod­el. It’s about, uh, osten­si­bly a [01:16:20] robot who is a valet in a house full of robots for a mas­ter, and then he has to leave the house. [01:16:30] For rea­sons I won’t dis­close. But then he dis­cov­ers this world of just bro­ken down robots every­where. And it’s set at some inde­ter­mi­nate time in the future where the [01:16:40] world has been pop­u­lat­ed with robots.

[01:16:41] Cameron Reil­ly: But then it looks like the humans have kind of dis­ap­peared for some rea­son we don’t know yet. And it’s just a world of robots [01:16:50] dun­no what to do with them­selves and they’re break­ing down and no one’s fix­ing them, and the humans have dis­ap­peared. And just this world of decom­pos­ing robots [01:17:00] try­ing to fig­ure out what to do because they’re all built with these rules, hard rules about they have tasks.

[01:17:05] Cameron Reil­ly: Basi­cal­ly

[01:17:06] Tony Kynas­ton: All.

[01:17:06] Cameron Reil­ly: a robot for every­thing and every robot has a [01:17:10] pre­de­ter­mined list of tasks that it has to do. And, uh, the world’s break­ing down so the tasks can’t get done. And so undone tasks pile [01:17:20] on top of more undone tasks and robots are wait­ing for oth­er robots to do their tasks before they, and it’s just this

[01:17:26] Tony Kynas­ton: Yeah. Right.

[01:17:27] Cameron Reil­ly: dystopi­an world of [01:17:30] robots with noth­ing to do.

[01:17:31] Cameron Reil­ly: It’s kind of, of inter­est­ing. Okay, let’s go talk Amer­i­ca. Have a good week [01:17:40] every­one. Thank you for your ques­tions. Thank you, Tony, for your answers for telling me to fol­low the rules. I’d for­got­ten that bit. All right. [01:17:50] Ciao.

[01:17:51]