QAV AU 909 — WWIII Investing

909

[00:00:00]

Cameron: Wel­come to QAV Aus­tralia. Tony, this is episode some­thing, some­thing, some­thing on the, some­thing some­thing Day. It’s 9 0 9 on the 3rd of March, 2026, or as I like to call it, third day of World War iii. How are you? Oh, Tony, what a week we’ve had. It

Tony: Yeah. What a.

Cameron: as you said, off air, like last week. Our biggest prob­lem was wait­ing for a report­ing sea­son to fin­ish, and, uh, then war broke out.

So jol­ly good. Jol­ly good.

Tony: Good. Yeah.

Cameron: Yeah, nev­er a dull moment in the mar­kets. Um, shout out to Marie New QOV Club mem­ber from Mel­bourne. Had a nice chat with her for an hour this morn­ing, and it was a throw­back to the old times. Tony, Marie’s big issue was, how the hell do I draw three point trend lines?

Tony: Oh

Cameron: was like, oh, we used to get that once a [00:01:00] day for years and years and years.

Then the bread lat­er came along and we nev­er got those ques­tions any­more. She said, no, I wan­na be able to draw them. I, no, no. I’ve looked at the bread lat­er, don’t under­stand it. I was like, yeah, it’s one of those things you’ll get there. Don’t wor­ry about it. Fig­ure it out.

Tony: well. Hi, Marie. Did Cameron did­n’t give you a good answer.

Cameron: Well, she said she watched the video that you record­ed like six years ago and still did­n’t under­stand it, so

Tony: I can’t.

can’t help that.

Cameron: No, I talked her through it. Uh, we went through a bunch of exam­ples. I showed her the bit in the Bible with all the exam­ples, but it was just fun to get back to three point trend­line analy­sis.

Haven’t had to do that in a long time. So let’s talk about oil. Tony. Um, yes.

Tony: oil?

Cameron: I don’t know, just some­thing just out­ta the blue. Some­thing some­body asked. I think Toby asked us to talk about oil and gold. Accord­ing to the finan­cial review, Alex GL

Lucius oil

faces [00:02:00] biggest threat in 50 years as Iran Cri­sis dis­rupts ous.

For weeks, traders and ana­lysts have been lay­ing out dif­fer­ent sce­nar­ios to try and chart the impact of bub­bling ten­sions in the Mid­dle East on oil over the week­end. Their worst case sce­nar­ios became a real­i­ty when the US joined Israel in bomb­ing Iran as the US and Israel launched their attacks on the oil major tankers.

Almost imme­di­ate­ly U‑turned or stopped at the entrance to the Strait of Ous, a cru­cial ship­ping lane for about a fifth of the world’s crude Iran pumps about 3% of glob­al oil out­put, but the nation wields greater influ­ence over ener­gy sup­plies. Giv­en its strateg loca­tion, along­side the strait oil from the Per­sian Gulf must pass through the water­way to get to major mar­kets, includ­ing Chi­na, India, and Japan.

So, uh, you know, my imme­di­ate thoughts apart from con­cern from peo­ple in Iran. [00:03:00] And the rest of the Mid­dle East was, what’s this gonna do to oil prices and also our ship­ping com­pa­nies that we own in the US port­fo­lio. Um, turns out ship­ping com­pa­nies are doing great

for

some rea­son. I dun­no why. Um, and oil prices going great too.

So

Tony: Well, you’d expect the oil price to rise.

Cameron: would you, who the hell knows

Tony: No. Well, I,

Cameron: you,

Tony: I, I don’t know, but I can go back to past behav­ior and, and extrap­o­late from that. Um, yeah. As soon as you don’t have oil flow­ing freely, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s like turn­ing a tap off sup­ply. So sup­ply and demand means the price goes up. Um,

Cameron: Yes.

Tony: the, the pat the,

Cameron: is, well, sor­ry. Yeah, keep going.

Tony: Well,

the pat­tern I went back to was the Ukraine War, um, which was kin­da the last glob­al cri­sis that affect­ed oil and the, and the pr it’s bit hard to pull apart ’cause the [00:04:00] price of oil was going up then any­way.

But, um, it, it shot up after the Ukraine war start­ed, which I think was Feb­ru­ary, 2022.

Cameron: Yep.

Tony: Uh, and it stayed up and came back and with­in about six months it was back to the. Price, it was at the start of the war. So there was height­ened oil prices for six months. And

what

tends to hap­pen is OPEC will get togeth­er and they’ll say, let’s maybe drop the price of oil for a while to try and keep pump­ing it and um, keep it mov­ing and, um, uh, look after our mar­ket share, all that kind of thing.

But even­tu­al­ly the world resets. And if, if it can’t, I mean it, door num­ber A is door num­ber one is that the Mid­dle East resolves itself quick­ly and the oil starts flow­ing in from, um, the Mid­dle East through the straits of,

and

then we’re back to a low­er raw price. So this could be a short lived blip. Uh, door num­ber two is that [00:05:00] peo­ple make alter­na­tive arrange­ments and, um, it’s maybe a lit­tle bit cost­lier to do that.

So you take longer routes to ship oil around the world, or you buy it from dif­fer­ent sup­plies, in which case the height­ened door price will con­tin­ue ’cause it’s got those extra costs. Um, fac­tored in, but you know, it’s got­ta be, I think, high for some­where around six months is my best guess. Um, may not be long term.

The, your price after that peri­od came right down. So it was around a hun­dred dol­lars a bar­rel, um, at the start of the Ukraine War and before this la last week­end, it was down in the six­ties again, so it got pret­ty low, um, fol­low­ing that even though the Ukraine war con­tin­ued. So, as I said, the, the world resets and adjusts and makes dif­fer­ent arrange­ments.

Mm-hmm.

Cameron: Hmm.

Tony: Uh, but there are plen­ty of oth­er ques­tions too, ’cause oil’s just not about the petrol price at the Bows­er. Um, and it would­n’t sur­prise me at all if we start see­ing. Petrol prices above $2 a, a lead drink in Aus­tralia. Um, but it flows through every, like, [00:06:00] you know, it’s hit the air­lines already. Um, apart from the fact that there’s been dis­rup­tions to flights in the Mid­dle East, you know, the air­lines are big con­sumers of oil.

Um, but it’s also in fer­til­iz­er which pro­duces our food. It’s also in plas­tics, which we use every day. So, um, one of the big tick­et items for us is gonna be what hap­pens to inter­est rates? Uh, does the RBA say this is a short term, um, hic­cup in the val­ue of oil and there­fore it’ll trade out with­out them hav­ing to move rates?

Or do they say, this is sticky? Am I gonna have to put rates up to try and, um, de depress infla­tion, which will have impacts across the whole port­fo­lio, real­ly, not just with oil stocks.

Cameron: Mm, well, I’m just look­ing at the resource stocks that I hold in the var­i­ous port­fo­lios. Um, today, alone, uh, stuff’s going up.

Tony: Mm-hmm.

Cameron: Hori­zon that I [00:07:00] bought yes­ter­day is up 6% today. But we’ll be talk­ing about their, um, attempt­ed, uh, acqui­si­tion of, uh, QA lit­tle bit lat­er on. Um, SMR

Tony: Would­n’t it be great to be Q?

Cameron: Yeah.

Tony: Yeah. Now, James, stop play­ing around with a car. dif­fer­ent q?

Cameron: yeah. Very good. Tried to bring this one back, will you James?

Tony: Yeah.

Cameron: Uh,

Stan­more resources is up 8% today. For some rea­son, gold stocks are all up like 5%. Perseus min­ing is up 5% today any­way.

Mm-hmm.

Uh, Phoenix Resources iron ore is down for, and, uh, Aris Resources zero. Aurel zero. But I’ll tell you the one that jumped out at me.

Uh, sor­ry. We fin­ished [00:08:00] talk­ing about oil. You got more to say about oil.

Tony: No, that’s all. We’ll talk about it again when we talk about, um, the pulled pork I’m doing

Cameron: Right. Well, I was, uh, just before we went to air, I pulled up my alerts list and was just hav­ing a look at the move­ment of the stocks today in case there was any­thing that jumped out that I should talk about. Um, and I did notice some­thing that looked like an error. Turns out it’s not SDI lim­it­ed. Do you remem­ber those kids?

Tony: Yeah, the den­tal, well implant mak­ers, I guess. Den­tal equip­ment mak­ers. Yeah.

Cameron: Yeah.

Um,

they’re up 45% today.

Tony: It sounds like a takeover, does­n’t it?

Cameron: Oh, it does, does­n’t it? SDI enters into a scheme imple­men­ta­tion deed. This is actu­al­ly on the 27th of Feb­ru­ary, so it was, uh, last week SDI enters into a

Tony: a life­time [00:09:00] ago,

Cameron: Yeah,

Tony: pre the week­end

Cameron: a scheme imple­men­ta­tion did with Bei­jing Gu Kibo tech­nol­o­gy Coli. Uh,

Tony: uh, implants in our teeth and then track us by our den­tist.

Cameron: it’ll be a sup­ply chain risk like, uh, Trump declared Anthrop­ic, uh, a few days ago. Um, it’s a whol­ly owned sub­sidiary of Shen­zhen Stock Exchange list­ed Chong

Ra

ra ra func­tion­al mate­r­i­al com­pa­ny lim­it­ed under which Bei­jing Guke has agreed to acquire 100% of the issued share cap­i­tal of SDI by way of a scheme of arrange­ment.

Under the terms of the scheme, SDI, share­hold­ers will receive $1 40 per SDI share in cash, which is a 65% pre­mi­um to the pre-announce­ment share [00:10:00] price and a 56% pre­mi­um to SDIs, 30 day vol­ume weight­ed aver­age up to and includ­ing the 27th of Feb­ru­ary, 2026. The SDI board, unsur­pris­ing­ly, unan­i­mous­ly rec­om­mends that share­hold­ers vote in favor of the scheme in the absence of a supe­ri­or pro­pos­al.

Uh, Cina, er, I don’t know how they would pro­nounce that, is a lead­ing Chi­na-based, advanced mate­ri­als com­pa­ny spe­cial­iz­ing in the devel­op­ment and pro­duc­tion of func­tion­al ceram­ic met­als. Oh, cera for ceram­ic Sino. Sarah, there you go. Worked it out as in, uh. Michael Sarah from Arrest­ed Devel­op­ment with a strong glob­al foot­print and a com­mit­ment to inno­va­tion, sinus serves a broad range of indus­tries, includ­ing elec­tron­ics, auto­mo­tive, and health­care.

So, uh, there you go. Yet again, we see a QAV stock that we deter­mined was under­val­ued. [00:11:00] Uh, some­body agrees with us. I added this to one of the light port­fo­lios on the 26th of Novem­ber, 2025, about three, three months ago,

Tony: Mm.

Cameron: and it’s up 36% and it’s only at a dol­lar 28. Did­n’t they say that the offer was like a dol­lar 45 or some­thing, so, or the, the takeover was like at a dol­lar 45.

So it’s got more room to go yet?

Tony: Well, it sounds like there’s some con­jec­ture that deal won’t go through when they don’t jump to the bid price. That’s usu­al­ly what, what it means.

Cameron: Ah.

Ah.

Any­way, that one jumped out at me. I was like, 45%. What?

Tony: I looked at doing a pulled pork on SDI any num­ber of times last year, and I kept think­ing, oh, it’s too small. No one will be inter­est­ed. I think it’s a DT was what, 20 grand or 30 grand or some­thing? It was­n’t much. Yeah. So I kept skip­ping it. Should­n’t have, should have [00:12:00] done it.

Cameron: Well, not too late yet.

Tony: Yeah, I could. All right.

Cameron: Well, it is for share­hold­ers. Well, yeah, you don’t wan­na buy into it now.

Tony: I.

Cameron: So that was, uh, any­way, that was a bit of fun to see that on the news this morn­ing. Uh, not so much fun is your old friend’s satire.

Tony: Satire. Yes. Satire, satire of a retail trad­ing com­pa­ny.

Cameron: You did do a pulled pork on these guys. I seem to recall. Why don’t you tell peo­ple what’s going on with satire?

Tony: Well,

they, they, uh, they had their results announce­ment recent­ly and they got a qual­i­fied audit from their orders, but they main­tain every­thing’s fine. Don’t look at the audit. Just trust us. Trust us. us. We’re fine.

Cameron: What do the audi­tors know?

Tony: Yeah. So, uh, yeah. So, um, uh, like the share price crashed obvi­ous­ly, um, after the release of that result down at 26% on [00:13:00] Thurs­day, they closed at 33 cents.

Um, but it, that was also on the back of, um, dis­clos­ing poor sales to the us. Uh, which is, its was its biggest mar­ket. Um, and a net loss of a mil­lion dol­lars for the six months to Decem­ber 31, com­pared with a prop­er of 4.7 mil­lion for the same peri­od. One year ear­li­er, they put that down to main­ly the crops admin­is­tra­tion to elim­i­nate the, the min­is rule, which was a tax exemp­tion on goods import­ed and val­ued under 800 us.

And that’s been a, a big crimp on their demand. Um, the audi­tor came out and said, well, giv­en all that, uh, and the fac­to­ry ran at a loss, the warn­ing that the lia­bil­i­ties exceed the assets by some $51 mil­lion. And, uh, order audi­tors are, are call­ing us some mate­r­i­al uncer­tain­ty about going con­cern. In oth­er words, the, the com­pa­ny may well have to shut its doors or raise mon­ey or some­thing like that.

Um, CFO came out and said that [00:14:00] uh, he was, um, com­fort­able with where they were and uh, he decid­ed that he could sign off on the, the accounts on the going con­cern ba basis. And that was appro­pri­ate giv­en its net oper­at­ing cash flows. And its $61 mil­lion in cash on the bal­ance sheet. And he also said satire had oth­er levers to pull if need­ed, includ­ing rais­ing fresh cap­i­tal and cut­ting costs such as mar­ket­ing.

Always a, always a dan­ger­ous thing to cut mar­ket­ing costs ’cause it does have a lag effect on, on busi­ness­es. Um, as you slow­ly lose cus­tomers, you don’t replace them. So. He, the c the CFO said, based on the fore­cast and oth­er avail­able infor­ma­tion, the direc­tors are sat­is­fied at the group will be able to meet its oblig­a­tions as they fall due for the fore­see­able future.

So that was a quote in the AFR on Feb 26th.

Um,

but yeah, look, it, it’s kind of moot for us. We don’t, we don’t buy [00:15:00] into these kinds of com­pa­nies. Um, we won’t be on the buy list ’cause it’s got a qual­i­fied audit. So it was on the buy list at about 55 cents a share, I think from mem­o­ry.

Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Uh, and then I think when I did my, um, my pulled pork, it prompt­ly dropped below that, uh, almost straight away.

And I don’t think it’s been back since then. Uh.

Cameron: Hmm. Indeed.

Well, I don’t think any­one would be hold­ing that because, um, prob­a­bly would’ve sold it a while ago. But, um, if you do hold it, maybe think about that,

Tony: Yeah.

Cameron: ques­tion, your life choic­es. Um, I’m gonna do a quick port­fo­lio update. The dum­my port­fo­lio. Let’s start with that. Last five years, it’s up 16% per annum on aver­age, uh, CAGR ver­sus just, uh, under 10 for the [00:16:00] SPDR 200.

So we’re not quite doing dou­ble mar­ket at the moment. Uh, we’ve dropped a bit since Octo­ber. If I look at the last, uh, well what this finan­cial year, let’s do that. We’re up 22.65 for the finan­cial year ver­sus 8.91 for the SPDR. Um, last 30 days not been good for us. We’re down 0.07 ver­sus the mar­ket, which is up 2.66.

Uh, the light group for the last 30 days is, uh, up 0.28 ver­sus the mar­ket 2.66 for the finan­cial year. The dum­my port­fo­lio is up 29.5% ver­sus 8.9 and for all time, which is going back to ear­ly [00:17:00] 2022. Dum­my port­fo­lio is up 21% ver­sus 11.45 for the mar­kets So. Rough­ly dou­ble mar­ket for that. And that’s the four port­fo­lios put togeth­er.

Um, if I break them down, the first one, which we start­ed right as inter­est rates went up and the Ukraine war start­ed and it was at one point in June of 2023, we were down 10% when the mar­ket was up five. So we were under­per­form­ing by 15%. Uh, we’ve now caught up. We’re neck and neck with the mar­ket over that peri­od of time. Uh, the sec­ond port­fo­lio, which was start­ed in April, 2022, is up 17.5% ver­sus nine for the mar­ket. The third port­fo­lio, which was start­ed August, 2022, is up 22.5% ver­sus 11.8 for the mar­ket. And the third [00:18:00] port­fo­lio, which was start­ed Novem­ber, 2022, was up 23.6 ver­sus 11 and a half for the mar­ket. So all except that first one, which was start­ed at the worst pos­si­ble time in the last few years, and it’s caught up, it’s back to zero.

The oth­ers are, uh, killing it. I’ve had a real­ly good year since, you know, July, end of July when every­thing went bonkers for our port­fo­lios. So there you go.

That’s

that.

Tony: Thanks for.

Thanks for

Cameron: The US port­fo­lio is doing well too. It’s like still up over a hun­dred per­cent. It’s doing dou­ble mar­ket over there, which is all good.

What else have I got? Poly Mar­ket. You love Poly mar­ket, Tony? ’cause you will bet on any­thing, even me occa­sion­al­ly. Uh.

Tony: I poor­ly mar­ket ’cause there’s no reg­u­la­tion, there’s no insid­er trad­ing’s, com­plete­ly legal.

Cameron: Well, that’s what we saw. So I saw this sto­ry on, [00:19:00] uh, was it Red­dit or some­where it appears that a poly mar­ket account called maga, my man made $515,000 in a sin­gle day bet­ting on the US strike in Iran with the first trade placed 71 min­utes before the news broke pub­licly, when this per­son bought in the mar­ket had this at a 17% prob­a­bil­i­ty, they turned rough­ly $87,000 into over half a mil­lion dol­lars overnight.

Reminder that Don­ald Trump Junior sits on Poly Mar­kets advi­so­ry board and his firm invest­ed dou­ble dig­it mil­lions into the plat­form. Last year, the DOJ and the CFTC both had active inves­ti­ga­tions into poly mar­ket that were dropped after Trump took office Pre­dic­tion mar­kets can­not be a vehi­cle for prof­it­ing of advanced knowl­edge of mil­i­tary action.

We need answers, trans­paren­cy, and over. But if you look at maga, my man’s account, [00:20:00] uh, he’s, all of his bets are, you know, US strikes are run by Feb­ru­ary 28th, 2026. Made, um, 300 and uh, $250,000. Out­ta that U

U

US strikes Iran by March 31st, 2 20 26. Um, made dou­ble his mon­ey on that. Made a cou­ple of hun­dred grand Israel strikes Iran by Jan­u­ary 31st, 2026.

Um, had a no for that one and um, made 45% on that deal. A cou­ple hun­dred grand. Uh, Israel mil­i­tary response against Iran in Octo­ber. Dun­no when Octo, which Octo­ber must have been this Octo­ber ’cause he’s made it. He, he vot­ed yes and he is made 120% on that. Dou­bled his mon­ey. I mean, they’re just all about strikes against Iran and is, uh, cleaned up on all of them.

Knew exact­ly what was going on. Got ’em all [00:21:00] right.

Tony: Well, he could, he, he could be very, very, uh, smart. He could be a, a sailor on the USS, what­ev­er it is, Eisen­how­er or some­thing in the,

in the

sev­enth Fleet watch­ing the planes drill. He could be

Cameron: mm-hmm.

Tony: around the, um, sit­ting around the White House as well, who knows is,

Who knows.

Cameron: Who knows?

Tony: but yeah, I mean, there’s a, oh, there’s, there’s, yeah, I know in Aus­tralia, the reg­u­la­tion around Bet­ty on sports changed to try and clean it up because there were well report­ed­ly gangs of thieves who would place pay sports peo­ple to throw a, you know, a to bowl a wide in a crick­et match or to, um, you know.

uh,

serve a fault and a ten­nis match. And you could bet on each of those things, um, indi­vid­u­al­ly and peo­ple would clean up ’cause they’d, they’d share their prof­its with [00:22:00] the indi­vid­ual who was serv­ing the, the fault. Um, and now you can’t bet in play It’s called, um, very eas­i­ly any­way on, on horse races or sport­ing match­es or any­thing in Aus­tralia.

But, um, sounds like the US reg­u­la­tions need to catch up.

Cameron: Well, not much chance of that. If Don­ald Trump Jr. Is sit­ting on the.

Tony: So the smarter thing to do is to watch the bet­ting mar­kets and when you see a, a big bet place

read­just

your port­fo­lio accord­ing­ly.

Cameron: Oh, we were in the car the oth­er day and Fox said to me, you ever heard of Poly Mar­ket?

Tony: Ah,

Ah,

Cameron: Like, yes, I have. I have heard of it. So I dun­no what he’s bet­ting on, but uh, yeah.

Tony: maybe his Mabb, maga my man.

Cameron: Oh, that’d be nice.

Tony: Yeah.

Cameron: Um, all right, let’s talk about Hori­zon. Hori­zon Takeover offer for Q Ener­gy Resources [00:23:00] hori. This is date, uh, stamped 2nd of March. So yes­ter­day, hori­zon Oil Lim­it­ed has today announced an off mar­ket takeover offered, acquire all of the ful­ly paid ordi­nary shares on issue in Q Ener­gy Resources that Hori­zon does not already have a rel­e­vant inter­est in Fur­ther detailed infor­ma­tion regard­ing the offer is set out in Hori­zon’s bid state­ment under the offer.

Each Q share­hold­er is enti­tled to receive a com­bi­na­tion of $0.01 cash and a 0.5625 hori­zon shares for each Q share held on the reg­is­ter date being March 3rd, 2026. So, um, as I said before, hori­zon share prices going up, whether it’s because of this or because of oil or because of both of those things

Tony: Uh, yeah. And there­fore the equa­tion, sor­ry,

Cameron: I was just gonna say, hori­zon is on our buy list this week, and [00:24:00] Q has been, but uh, isn’t at the moment.

Tony: Yeah, so the, uh, equa­tion as of last week was valu­ing Q shares at 13 and a half cents when you con­vert­ed from Hori­zon. And, uh, Q went into a trad­ing halt on Mon­day, so they could­n’t, um, they, you can’t trade in their shares. They, we are await­ing them to come out­ta the trad­ing halt tomor­row. Uh, when, uh, they’re gonna tell us what, what they think they, that we should do about the bid.

But, uh, giv­en that the equa­tion now means the price for the takeover is now worth about 16 cents, or just under 16 cents for Q share­hold­ers, uh, they may as well stay in the trad­ing hole while the Mid­dle East is in upheaval. And, uh, deal just keeps get­ting bet­ter. So, um, yeah, it’s, it sounds like a good deal for q.

One thing that real­ly pissed me off, um, when I start­ed to research this, ’cause I don’t have a stake in either of these com­pa­nies, um.[00:25:00]

some­thing

that alert­ed me to what was going on was, uh, an announce­ment say­ing that Hori­zon had agreed to acquire 19.99% of Q from a com­pa­ny called Ech­e­lon Resources, E‑C-H-E-L-O‑N, via an off mar­ket trans­ac­tions.

So they’ve pledged to the, um, their stake in Q2 Hori­zon to kick staff this takeover. They only got 11 and a half cents per share, so it may not be a good deal for them, but, um, hori­zon now have those shares. Um, some­times there’s a, a, a, a deal that goes on, uh, behind the scenes where Hori­zon might make a pay­ment, a top up pay­ment ech­e­lon if the price keeps ris­ing.

I’m not sure on this case, but what real­ly annoyed me was if I looked at the share­hold­ings for q it, it cur­rent­ly says, or the last, um, sub­stan­tial share­hold­er notice goes back to 2018. And it says that a com­pa­ny called OG [00:26:00] Oil and Gas, which is Sin­ga­pore based, owned 50%, 50.04% of Q Ener­gy. So that’s the last major share­hold­er trans­ac­tion in shares was back in 2018.

Now, if you go to the lat­est annu­al report, it says that, uh, ech­e­lon owned 50%. So I’m assum­ing that they must have some­how tak­en over the state from OG or that OGs changed its name or some­thing’s hap­pened. But then you fast for­ward to today and Ech­e­lon seems to have a 19.99% stake. So there’s a lot of com­ings and goings on the share­hold­er reg­istry, which aren’t being announced since 2018.

And you know, you just got­ta say once again, what the fuck ASX. Why isn’t this being report­ed when you’re try­ing to work out, try­ing to assess the prob­a­bil­i­ties of hori­zon tak­ing over Q, you’ve got­ta know who the big play­ers are and what they’re doing. So, um, [00:27:00] I’ll, I’ll have to go on what’s, what’s been announced as part of the announce­ments in the takeover, which says the Ech­e­lon owned just under 20% and they’ve pledged that to Hori­zon.

And I, I, you know, who knows if there is anoth­er big play­er on the, on the, uh, reg­is­ter? You can’t tell, which I think is woe­ful

Cameron: Well,

there you go. Tony is dis­pleased.

Tony: yet

again with the ASX.

And

look, I know there’s all sorts of rules around this, so I asked check GPT if they could un unrav­el it for me and, uh, which is some­times help­ful. And they said no, they could­n’t. And they said, they point­ed out, and refresh my mem­o­ry, that you only have to declare changes in share­hold­ings if you go through a thresh­old of 5%.

So once you get to 20 every 5% above that, you have to make an announce­ment, which means in reverse if you go from 50 down to 20, there should have been a num­ber of announce­ments and there has­n’t been. So chat GPT was at a loss to explain why the last major share­hold­er [00:28:00] trans­ac­tion was record­ed as 2018 on Q’S reg­istry.

Cameron: doing deals with the Depart­ment of War, work­ing on drone drone deploy­ments. Okay, well, um, if you’re a Hori­zon share­hold­er, as we are in the live port­fo­lio as of yes­ter­day, hap­py days.

Tony: Yeah, and if you’re a Q share­hold­er, hap­pi­er days. And um, as part of the release so far, it looks like Hori­zon and Q actu­al­ly do have some assets that they joint­ly own togeth­er and oper­ate togeth­er. And so Hori­zon are say­ing the usu­al stuff about the slim lines man­age­ment, con­trol, and mort­gage syn­er­gies from merg­ing these two com­pa­nies togeth­er to oper­ate the assets we do now with one struc­ture, which makes sense.

Cameron: Just a warn­ing to peo­ple. Um, I just noticed that a MA group has become a three point sell. Not real­ly sure why. Look­ing [00:29:00] at the announce­ments, it came out with their results last week. Share price went up by 1%, but, um, it’s, it’s still slid­ing. So, um, it’s cur­rent­ly at 65 cents? No, the sell price is 65. It’s cur­rent­ly at 63 and a half cents.

So, um. If you’re a hold­er of a MA group, keep an eye on that. You may wan­na check your port­fo­lio when this comes out. The only oth­er stock that I’ve got is close to a sell three point trend­line sell. Any­way, on my list is Tyro pay­ments. It’s cur­rent­ly trad­ing at 82 and a half cents and the three point sell is 82 cents.

So very, very close to that. I did rec­om­mend it to light sub­scribers. It’s not in a port­fo­lio, but it was a pos­si­ble in ear­ly Jan­u­ary and it’s down 18% since then. So, dun­no what’s going on with Tyro, but keep an eye on that if you did buy it. [00:30:00] What else have I got? Howard Marks Tony,

Friend

of the show, Oak­tree Cap­i­tal Man­age­ment co-founder.

Tony: Uh, I guess, I guess, you know, you have friends that you tol­er­ate. Um, you don’t, you don’t talk to them a lot. But, um, if, if that’s the def­i­n­i­tion of friend, then how Mark can be a friend of the show. I think he’s a blow hard myself.

Cameron: Well, accord­ing to San­ta Cla, if Howard Marx has a super­pow­er, it’s his abil­i­ty to stay above the fray. So you two,

you

con­nect on that. Sure­ly

Tony: It’s appear appear­ing to stay above the fray. He runs a big invest­ment com­pa­ny, so I doubt if he stays above the fray.

Cameron: Marx’s famous invest­ment mem­os are so revered because he’s the mod­el of com­mon sense in a world, often bereft of it.

Tony: Did­n’t he tell us his son con­vinced him to buy some Bit­coin or some­thing last year?

Cameron: [00:31:00] Well, I thought that, and I went back through my notes to try and

Tony: Tech stocks? I think it was. Yeah.

Cameron: of that. It was tech stocks. Yeah, I did find tech stocks, not Bit­coin. I thought it was Bit­coin. But no, it was tech stocks and tech stocks have done pret­ty well since then. So maybe he was onto some­thing. Well, mag sev­en in the last cou­ple of years has done pret­ty good.

Look

Tony: he was late to the par­ty and prob­a­bly lost mon­ey. That would be my guess.

Cameron: two years ago, apple was 169. Now it’s two hun­dred and six­ty four, two hun­dred sev­en­ty two. Google’s gone from 135 to 307. So they’ve dou­bled. They’ve all sort of dou­bled over the last cou­ple of years. Meta has gone from 500 to 6 57, has­n’t dou­bled any­way. He’s, um, he’s, uh, talk­ing about ai, he says.

Tony: Because he is an expert [00:32:00] in AI now, is he?

Cameron: It’s able to change the world at a speed that approach­es instan­ta­neous out­pac­ing the abil­i­ty of most observers to antic­i­pate or even com­pre­hend. In the past, infra­struc­ture was built for a new tech­nol­o­gy and it often took years for that infra­struc­ture to be ful­ly uti­lized. In the case of AI infer­ence, how­ev­er, demand already exists and is grow­ing rapid­ly, and I’m told AI is sup­ply con­strained.

While Marx does­n’t pro­fess to under­stand how AI does what it does,

You cyn­ic.

his exam­i­na­tion of its devel­op­ment strengths and weak­ness­es has led him to con­clude that its pow­er lies not in its abil­i­ty to think. He says there’s an open ques­tion as to whether it will ever be able to come up with tru­ly new ideas, but in its abil­i­ty to find order and process infor­ma­tion in a way that is broad­ly sim­i­lar to humans.

AI may not be able to remem­ber every­thing, oper­ate with­out errors, rec­og­nize every time it does­n’t know some­thing or solve prob­lems it has­n’t been taught to solve, but nei­ther can most peo­ple. The bot­tom line is that AI is [00:33:00] capa­ble of per­form­ing far bet­ter than most of us. And then he talks about the neg­a­tive impli­ca­tions for soci­ety are great­ly com­pound­ed by AI’s speed of adop­tion as described ear­li­er, AI can rapid­ly put peo­ple out of work for whom it will take years to find to be trained for new careers.

It’s hard to think the speed of change under AI won’t vast­ly out­strip soci­ety’s abil­i­ty to adjust.

Tony: Oh, it’s an inter­est­ing con­cept, but we’ve talked about that before and debat­ed it and we don’t real­ly know, so. We’re, we’re the equiv­a­lent of Howard Marx. He does­n’t know either.

Cameron: just grist for the Mill

Tony: It is, isn’t it?

Cameron: Erodes. Chief Exec, uh, chief Exec­u­tive Offi­cer is step­ping down in June, 2026. Tony, after almost 11 years at Eero, mark Heney. Is decid­ed the time is right to step down. This is a per­son­al deci­sion made in con­sul­ta­tion with the board. I’m proud of what the team has achieved dur­ing [00:34:00] my time at Eero.

Over the last 11 years, I’ve seen Eero grow from a small New Zealand start­up with rev­enue of 17 mil­lion to almost 200 mil­lion in rev­enue today across Aus­tralia, New Zealand and North Amer­i­ca. You’ve talked a bit about erode on the show over the last cou­ple of months.

Tony: Yeah. Well, um, it’s not sur­pris­ing to the see a CEO leave after 11 years. Um, but there has been some prob­lems with that ero recent­ly they lost a big con­tract in the US so, you know.

you know,

Again, we have to take the announce­ment at face val­ue and the guy’s gonna go off and spend time with his fam­i­ly or what­ev­er.

Um, I sus­pect they’re try­ing to fix a prob­lem and don’t think he has the, he, he’s the solu­tion. But the, and the road has, has got some issues. I mean, it’s, um, it’s essen­tial­ly a road, an auto­mat­ed way of, uh, pay­ing tolls. Um, so in New Zealand trucks, the his­to­ry of the com­pa­nies in New Zealand, trucks had to [00:35:00] have, uh, had to pay tolls on their road usage.

So the gov­ern­ment real­izes that heavy trucks can cre­ate pot­holes and road dam­age and they should con­tribute more to repairs, and there­fore they get you take out, you ba basi­cal­ly pay more for your license if you’re a truck. Um, and that sort of evolved to you pay more depend­ing on where you dri­ve it.

And that had to be tracked. And, and even­tu­al­ly that became elec­tron­ic and that’s where Eero. Came in pro­vid­ing track­ers in, in trucks to be able to, um, have them pay their, their elec­tron­ic, uh, levies to the gov­ern­ment prop­er­ly. Um, they sort of evolved from there to pro­vid­ing fleet man­age­ment ser­vices.

’cause if you could track what the fleet of trucks was doing, you could talk to the, uh, oper­a­tor of the fleet and say, Hey, you know, you’ve got two trucks going to the same des­ti­na­tion on the same day, or, or you’re going, like, this guy’s tak­ing a long route to get to Auck­land or what­ev­er. So there was, um, an oppor­tu­ni­ty to sell infor­ma­tion to fleet man­agers, which, which worked for them, and that’s how they went into the us.

But, you know, it’s not, I nev­er [00:36:00] saw it as being a wide moat. It’s a, it’s a track­er in a truck or a car and soft­ware that goes behind it. And that’s, that’s actu­al­ly being rolled out at the time, at the time I last talked about this, I knew from expe­ri­ence in Cana­da that insur­ance com­pa­nies were rolling out these kinds of track­ers to, um, vehi­cles because if you were a safe dri­ver, they would offer you a cheap­er pre­mi­um.

And they val­i­date that by keep­ing and track­ing met­rics on your car usage. You know, how, how are you a heavy dri­ver? Are you not heavy dri­ver? Do you break, um, a lot? Do you break eas­i­ly? Do you, um, stay below the speed lim­it? All that kind of stuff, which, you know, they feed into their algo­rithms and give you a dif­fer­ent pre­mi­um.

So the tech­nol­o­gy, I think caught up with erode. They had a bit of a bump last year. Weigh in. Because of ev take up in Aus­tralia, um, the way that we kind of get mon­ey back into road repairs is via putting a tax on fuel. And if you’re an EV dri­ver, you don’t pay that tax. And so the gov­ern­ment has been toy­ing with [00:37:00] charg­ing EV users for road usage and E Road looked like the obvi­ous provider of that.

But that whole thing, that whole announce­ment stalled. And so the share prices has dropped again for ERO and it’s now three point trend line sell. So, you know, if you did own it, you should have sold it by now. Basi­cal­ly.