In this episode of QAV Australia, Cameron and Tony navigate a particularly turbulent period for the ASX, noting a buy list that recently shrank to just three stocks amidst a broader market correction. The duo discusses the fallout for software companies like **Reckon (RKN)** and **Xero (XRO)** as the “AI penny drops,” the impact of the RBA’s unexpected rate hike, and the dramatic 24% jump for **Pepper Money (PPM)** following a takeover bid from Challenger. The club episode features a deep dive into **Atlas Pearls (ATP)**, examining the unique (and labor-intensive) world of Indonesian pearl farming, before wrapping up with a “gritty” after-hours segment covering everything from *Game of Thrones* prequels to Baz Luhrmann’s new Elvis documentary.
This week’s full episode is for QAV Club members only. The free episode is available below. Also check out our podcast archives link and our pages on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or watch clips on TikTok. Or visit our homepage to learn more about QAV and how it works as a value investing system that you can learn and apply to beat the market.
Transcription
[00:00:00]
Cameron: Welcome back to QAV Australia. Tony,
Tony: Uh, well behind the scenes cam just went from a concerned look to a big beaming smile. In a blink of an eye. Uh,
Cameron: technology. Tony, I don’t want to put my foot through my computer at all. it is episode 9 0 6, Tony, this is the 10th of February, 2026.
Tony: ready.
Cameron: How’s your week been?
Tony: Good. Yeah. Played a lot of golf. Um, yeah, played a lot of golf, uh, being up and down to Melbourne. Uh, unfortunately Jenny’s father’s in hospital, so we’re going up to see him, uh, which is no good.
Cameron: hmm.
Tony: and, uh, yeah, talk about a few things in the after hours, what that would be, watching what had been good, but yeah,
Cameron: how’s your hot water?
Tony: fixed.
Cameron: Yeah, still it’s
Tony: Yeah, no, it has
Cameron: but it’s still good.
Tony: still good. Uh, like it’s, [00:01:00] um, The new system’s fine. So they put new hot water system in and it’s got a large, a loud fan on it. So if you turn the hot water on, you can hear this sort of vibrating outside, um, which wasn’t there with the old one. And they fixed it because of the gas figure came back and changed the regulator between the gas bottles and the house, and, which made me sort of think that might have been the problem in the first place.
And we spent 3000 bucks on the hot water system we don’t need, and which is louder than the old one. So, but anyway,
Cameron: And what
Tony: short of throwing out and get another one,
Cameron: You were telling me last week that there was beeping going on in the middle of the night or the week before that it’s waking you
Tony: that was, that was the boiler for the, for the heater that’s been serviced and fixed and parts have been replaced, so yeah. Yeah, major handyman work here over the last month.
Cameron: Well, something else that wasn’t working last week was the stock market, Tony.
Tony: Worked perfectly. What are you talking about? B Bitcoin’s down to its lowest. [00:02:00] The, uh, all the tech bros are licking their wounds. I think it’s great.
Cameron: I don’t know if that’s true. I think that they’ve all rebounded in the last day or so. Um, there was a market correction on the ASX. I ran a buy list on Friday night and there were three companies on it. Well, that’s not true. There were five companies on it. Two of them were commodity stocks where the commodity was a Josephine. Of the three that were left, one was Atlas Pearls, which is just a no go in my book, but I know you’re doing your pulled pork on ’em today. that should be fun.
Tony: There’s only three stocks to pick from on the buy list.
Cameron: And the other two were okay. One was Qantas, but they hadn’t reported, so it was like
Tony: Hmm.
Cameron: to buy. So then I ran another one Monday night last night, and there was about 10 stocks, but again, none of them had reported. So nothing to do. But, uh, that, that three companies on it last week, or five, if I take the two [00:03:00] with Josephine’s and by the, and when I did the commodity checks, everything except Manganese was a
Tony: Mm.
Cameron: or a sell.
It was crazy. I have never, in the years we’ve been
Tony: Mm
Cameron: this, seen a buy list with three stocks on it. Uh, even in the middle of COVID, we had more things. I think to buy, well, no, we didn’t buy anything, so maybe not. Maybe they were all josephine’s. but it was, it was shocking. I was shocked. But then the market bounced back yesterday.
A lot of, lot of, lot of things are still josephine’s though, on the buy list I did
Tony: mm.
Cameron: a lot of things had recovered yesterday, but not well enough to get back over a second byline. So, um, a minute I thought, woo, gone wrong with my script. And I started manually checking the sentiment on 10 or 15 stocks and the bread later.
And so, no, they’re all, So, um, yeah, you, you came up with a similar sort of result, I assume, over the weekend.
Tony: I did, [00:04:00] um, I did actually did mine again on yesterday as well, but, um, my buy list has all the josephines in it still, so it’s a bit longer than yours. But, um, yeah, when I dug into it, there wasn’t much to, uh, to buy.
Cameron: that yours is a bit longer than mine. That’s, that’s not nice. No bragging. It’s what you do with the bile is the counts, Tony. Not how long it is. Don’t
Tony: Hmm.
Cameron: that? Well, it’s an episode title. It’s what you do with it.
Tony: Yeah. Well I like keeping the Joseph in because, uh, they can turn around quickly. Something that wasn’t a buy yesterday can be a buy today, so
Cameron: Yeah,
Tony: I keep it all in.
Cameron: fair enough. Um, well, I’ll do some quick updates. Um, I did the light update on Monday and it, it’s worth noting the most impressive return for the previous 30 days. And this is, I did this before the market had opened yesterday was KOV, which was up 14% for the month. [00:05:00] We’ve owned Corevest in the light portfolio since November, 2023.
When we bought it at $7 99. As of Monday morning it was $16. Which is over a hundred percent return in that period. But we’ve owned it in the dummy portfolio since April, 2020. Must have been the first thing that we bought, um, in COVID, right? April,
Tony: Yeah, it would’ve been, yeah.
Cameron: we bought it at $3 49 in April, 2020. it’s up 358% in nearly six years, which, what’s that sort of return like, um, six divided by 360, 60 a year on average.
Is that right?
Tony: I dunno.
Cameron: Yeah.
Tony: Straight line. Yeah. Not kaga.
Cameron: it’s another example of why we don’t rebalance and we don’t [00:06:00] take
Tony: Ooh.
Cameron: I had a phone call from a member yesterday saying. uh, you know, my stocks are doing really well, but when I look at the three point trend line, the sell line for them, it’s way, way, way lower than where the share prices are.
Should I take profits? should I sell some, I’m worried that I’m gonna lose everything, and I gave them the usual spiel, which is, this is not financial advice, but if it were me, what Tony always says is, do whatever you have to do. If you to sleep, sleep well at
Tony: Oh
Cameron: if that’s what you wanna do, do it.
But we don’t do that because, um, and talked about some examples, things go down, they go back up. We’ve talked about a few
Tony: correct. Yeah. And look, Corevest is a, a great example, isn’t it? We’ve held it the, almost the whole way through since the start. We’ve been, I think we did this podcast not much earlier than COVID, so it’s a six year holding and it could go on for a life to be a lifetime holding, which is perfect, isn’t it?
Cameron: [00:07:00] I guess, yeah, I mean it’s 360% in six years. Good.
Tony: Yeah. Doubling it. My, my rule of thumb is doubling in five. Um, you wanna, do you wanna do better than that? I think 15% is doubling in five. So anything greater than That’s good. So this is three times in six, so it’s probably better than doubling in five. Yeah. It’s good
Cameron: Probably better than I did have some recent cells though. Uh, reckon. GRR and NWS reckon. Yeah. Um, counting software stock and
Tony: Hmm.
Cameron: got, I mean, they’ve been fooling for a while, but there was a, some news last week, before, um, anthropic, the AI that has one of the state of the art models.
Claude released a new sort. Feature of Claude Cowork. And it was a legal plugin basically that would do a lot of legal [00:08:00] work and legal software companies in the US took a massive hit. I was actually looking at some of them over the weekend, publicly listed legal. There’s a bunch of them over there, they’re all in the last year or so, down like 70, 80%, taking a massive hit. They all took another hit. Um, a bigger hit last, uh, last week when Claude came out with this. And I think generally across the board software, there’s lots of talks about Atlassian was down. People that aren’t necessarily in the, uh, legal space took a hit because, uh, the, I think the Fin said the AI penny is finally dropping for software manufacturers. Um, the marketers finally working out that, know. AI could come for these software vendors a lot sooner than we may have thought. It’s not five years away. It’s maybe a year, two years away they’ll come for you.
Tony: Yeah. Well,
Cameron: Taylor built a task management app for his business for all of, he needed something sort of customized for campaign [00:09:00] management and task management for all of his creators. And he just built something and it looks at, you know, it looks like a professional Mac app. It’s installable on a Mac, and he’s just about to do an iPhone version. Just built it all in Claude Code. Just said, build me this app. Custom built, looks professional. It’s taken him a bit of time. He’s put in over a couple of weeks, but he built his own app that would’ve cost him, you know,
Tony: Yeah, right.
Cameron: or thousands of dollars if he wanted to buy it or rent it or lease it or whatever.
Pay for a licenses for all of his team.
Tony: now I should go and see Blackbird Ventures get a series A funding round going for the app, and then. Listed on the ASX and then watch it disappear after court comes along. But, uh, but reckon was a good example of what’s happened because, um, it’s, it’s kind of like, it’s always been a bit of the poor relative of the other accounting stocks.
The two big ones in a, in a, in Australia are may zero zero in particular, is one I wanna talk about. Have a look at their share price. Um, [00:10:00] it’s now back to COVID levels. Speaking of, um, COVID, well actually no, it’s not true. Yeah, back to 2023. It’s last low. It’s kind of like halved. Um, and it was only, I can’t remember how long ago it was now, a couple of years ago, that people were telling me, um, you gotta invest in zero.
It’s, you know, it’s the biggest thing. It’s a software as a service, it’s capital light. Um, it’s not making any money, but it’s growing fast. And there was some analysis that had come out by a big research house that had said. Zero was going to be able to, once it dominated the space around the world, uh, start monetizing it and trading at a profit, and now look at it, it’s half the price.
It was.
Cameron: The crazy thing is, if you go back over the last few years, it was sort of bottomed out in December, 2022 at $70, which is when ChatGPT came out, and then it, [00:11:00] it just grew like a rocket
Tony: Hmm.
Cameron: to June of last year when it hit $193.
Tony: Mm-hmm.
Cameron: So, you know, it it, it grew because of ai. I think the last couple of years people have been going, oh, all these software companies. ’cause they all say, oh yeah, now we’re gonna AI in our tool and it’s gonna be great. It’s
Tony: Yeah. I’m not sure if that’s the reason why zero grew.
Cameron: Oh, okay. Why
Tony: Yeah. Uh, it expanded into the US mainly. It, um, it’s always had a big following, uh, ’cause it’s been a growth stock, one of those unprofitable growth stocks, putting all this money back into, um, all its revenues back into, uh, improving its software platform and growth.
Um, expanded to the US changed CEOs. Um, Daniel Petri was involved for a while. He might still be. Um, but now then he handed over to somebody else. Yeah. Uh, someone, [00:12:00] I forgot the name. Someone sing and then, yeah. And, uh, she was, um, she was liked by the market and, and like I said, this research was going around saying, Xero’s gonna over, you’re gonna take over the world.
And once it does, it’ll be like Uber and can start putting its prices up and margins will come back and it’ll make money. But I mean, it just hasn’t happened. I use Xero, you know, it’s a great package. I use Xero. I use Share site Fantastics. Packages. But, um, you know, if they, if they needed to make money, they probably cost me twice as much than they are.
Cameron: Yeah, well, it’s down to 83, 80 $4 at the moment, from June last year. So as you said, back down to where it was, beginning of 2023.
Tony: Mm-hmm.
Cameron: Uh, so that, uh, bit of a blah, GRR, we know we’ve talked on and off about the issues that they’ve got,
Tony: Mm-hmm.
Cameron: et cetera, et cetera. That finally became a sell. And NewsCorp, and I’ve [00:13:00] gotta be honest, I’m always kind of happy to sell NewsCorp.
I always, I always feel bad when I have to buy it.
Tony: Yeah, I just, I agree, but just be aware. Remember, we’ve had this problem before and I haven’t looked at NewsCorp this half, but it did pop up on my bio list too, and I, straight away, I went, stock doctors still haven’t fixed that problem with a number of shares, so. Remember it, so it’s, yeah. In fact, I even bought it a couple of years ago when it popped up on the buy list and had to sell it.
Um, so there’s, there’s been a problem. Whatever data feed Stock Doctor have used has reported the wrong number of shares, and then a week or so later they work it out and fix it. Yeah.
Cameron: God. So yeah, fully paid ordinary shares, 566 million June, 2025, and it’s just dropped down to 42.8 million
Tony: Hmm. Hasn’t dropped.
Cameron: December 25. So, you know, the numbers are wrong on that. Again. Do we
Tony: Hmm.
Cameron: to tell them again that it’s [00:14:00] wrong?
Tony: Yeah. Well, I haven’t looked into it, but possibly, yeah. It’s happened the last two years running at least.
Cameron: Uh, well I sold it, but it was
Tony: Good.
Cameron: trendline sell. I mean, so, you know. It’s got nothing to do with the share prices. The, the number of ordinary shares, right.
Tony: No, but it, it, it gets onto our buy list ’cause there’s an incorrect calculation.
Cameron: Oh, in the first place
Tony: Yeah, I ca so either, I think it might inflate the prop calf or something like that, ’cause of the wrong number of shares.
Cameron: It’s no longer a, uh, three point trendline sell, either. It’s recovered since it was yesterday. Just trying to figure out when I bought it.
Tony: But listeners should, listeners should be aware, they should really double check the number of shares if they’re gonna, before they buy it. Uh, check it with the annual report.
Cameron: I bought it in April last year. So, um, yeah. Anyway, [00:15:00] ended up, no, it was a rule one sell for me. It wasn’t a three point trend line sell this time it was a rule one sell down 23% from where I bought it. Just goes to show can’t trust Um
Tony: well, I’m not sure where it’s at, but they have a big holding in rre realestate.com au, which was sold off last week as well as part of the AI sell. Well, AI caused sell down. Yeah.
Cameron: Hmm. It did go up as high as 54 at one point, now it’s come back anyway. So, uh, what else? RBA Tony, last week on the show, you predicted that they would hold their rates, um, and like any good economist,
Tony: yep.
Cameron: You were wrong.
Tony: Uh, well, you’re not supposed to do that. Can, you’re supposed to wait until I’m right before you highlight it.
Cameron: Ah, right.
Tony: Yeah. We always, always assume I’m wrong.
Cameron: So, uh, time to update your spreadsheets, kids, if you
Tony: Yeah. Yep. So we need to update it for our IV calculations [00:16:00] and eventually the mortgage rate will change as well. It’ll go up, probably won’t flow through straight away. It’ll take a month to, to to come through.
Cameron: A ISS resources, I think,
Tony: Mm-hmm.
Cameron: their quarterly activities report last week, maybe a week before they were down 10% as a result of that. Um,
Tony: Had a look this morning and they were up seven. So
Cameron: Oh, good for them.
Tony: lot of lot of volatility in the market camp.
Cameron: Yeah. Yeah. They took a hit last week. I think I do. Hold them in something. Yeah. No. Uh, they were a possible buy for QAV light back in December of last year. They’re down about 4% since then. Something’s going on there. I think, uh, Toby or somebody posted in our Facebook group that there was something messy going on, but I. Hm. get details. of the big wins for us [00:17:00] though this week has been pepper money, good old pepper pig. Uh, it’s been, it was at the top of our buy list for God knows how long
Tony: Mm-hmm.
Cameron: I think, more or less. And I bought it, uh, I was in the dummy portfolio since May and also in a light portfolio since May of last year.
We bought it at a dollar 64, dollar 65. Didn’t really do much until this week when it was announced that challenger, uh, trying to acquire them. And I think it jumped up like 24% Monday in, uh, trading.
Tony: Yeah, so technically I think Challenger and KKR or a subsidiary of KKR acquiring them. So KKR originally acquired Pepper floated it and now engineering a buyback work challenger will have 25% and the other KKR subsidiary will have the rest, but it’ll be [00:18:00] unlisted. Um, from memory, the, the offer was at $2 60, um, and it’s got all the usual caveats and the shares are trading below that at the moment.
And I suspect that’s because, uh, when Challenger announced they were bidding, their share price dropped. And so there might be some backlash from Challenger shareholders around whether they should be acquiring a company like Pepper. Um, to put some context around that, challenger have a long history of, uh, offering annuities to retirees.
So people who want a steady income when they retire will buy a product off Challenger. And their business model is basically to find income streams that have low volatility and then put a margin on them and then package them up as annuities to retirees. Um, they’ve done that for a long time with commercial property, and then as they got bigger and started to diversify away, they did.
They even, I think, even may have had some index like ETFs. Uh, or some [00:19:00] products like that where they use stocks to back ’em. Um, and now the, the, their plan is to use the, the loans that pepper are making to people as that sort of fixed income pool of, uh, money that they can then put a margin on and sell as annuities.
But, uh, the, some of the shareholders are questioning this because it’s a new line of business for them and probably haven’t gotten their minds around what it means. Um, but also too, I think, uh, challenger may have talked about buybacks or returning some money to shareholders as well. So, um, there may be some more to play out in this, this one for us.
Cameron: All right. Well I wanted to give a shout out to Trent for picking up the news, ensuring that with this yesterday, uh, I just got an alert to say that Mabb has just become a three point cell as usual.
Tony: Yep.
Cameron: I dunno why I
Tony: Uh, yeah, I know what you mean. I went, I went out to Chadstone the other [00:20:00] week, um, and went to Mabb and was yet again disappointed by my visit and just, you know, walk through Chadstone thinking how does Mabb even exist with all these other re specialist retailers, which are inside Meyer and often outside Meyer in their own stores, but then left Chad’s and empty handed and went, how does Chads even exist these days?
’cause you can buy stuff, went home and bought something online. So it just, you know, just biggest belief really.
Cameron: mm. It does. Well. I don’t know how many times I’ve had to buy and sell Myer over the years, but there you go. This will be another one. Uh, speaking of things that aren’t around anymore, uh, I noticed that SWM seven West
Tony: Mm-hmm.
Cameron: delist after the merger late last year. I’m not sure if we talked about that.
I know that we had bugger lugs on
Tony: Mm-hmm.
Cameron: Street and
Tony: Yep.
Cameron: fighting it. Um, but it, it went through by the looks of it, and S seven West Media did [00:21:00] delist, so that won’t be on our buy list again. Southern Cross Media merged with it may be, but I don’t think they’re at the moment. Uh, what
Tony: Well, given there’s five stocks on the buy list, it’s a good bet. They’re not
Cameron: Probably not. Yeah. Wan Marine or in my news yesterday, they put out an announcement saying that they’re in the process of. Adding a company called Riverside Marine that they’ve acquired. Uh,
Tony: bug ones are sell, by the way. So yeah, I dunno if you still hold it in portfolios, but it’s, yeah.
Cameron: dunno if I ever did. Actually. I think I did at some point. B‑W-N-B‑W. NBWN No. see them in my archive.
Oh yeah, I did. There you go. I did. It was a three point trendline sell back in November at 52 cents. What are [00:22:00] they today? Should I look or is that just gonna
Tony: Oh no. They’ll be lower.
Cameron: Oh, they are 44 and a half cents. Okay, good. Good work rules.
Tony: Yeah.
Cameron: Uh, anyway, they, they, they might be back on now that they’ve bought this company, Riverside Marine. Uh, apart from making fun of Bitcoin, which I get in trouble for on Facebook, people say I’m obsessed with Bitcoin. Did you watch that TikTok? I Did you watch the TikTok that I had linked in my notes?
Tony: Uh, yes I did actually, the
Cameron: uh, analysis?
Tony: selling.
Cameron: Yeah, cascading,
Tony: Cascade. Thank you. Yeah.
Cameron: the guy said. Basically. He’s, he is a, I think he’s an economist. Um, he, his, his stuff is pretty good. He, he simplifies a lot of these things. He was basically saying that a lot of the money that’s gone into Bitcoin over the last couple of years was leveraged.
Tony: Mm-hmm.
Cameron: And as the share price has been dropping, people are getting hit by margin calls, which means they need to sell, which drives [00:23:00] the price lower, and it becomes this cascading liquidation event where calls kick in, people have to sell, and that drives the price down. And then the new round of margin calls get. Hit, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So, the price, yeah, is back down. It’s gone up a little bit in the last couple of days, but when I checked over the weekend, it was back down to November, 2021 So and a bit years of, uh, value for Bitcoin investors and if they didn’t sell, wiped out. Um, but it’s a store of long-term value and it’s gonna hit a million dollars, Tony.
So just keep that in mind. I
Tony: Digital gold.
Cameron: saw a friend of mine, uh, on Facebook over the weekend saying, I think it’s time to buy more Bitcoin. It’s just like, of course it is.
Tony: Yeah. Standard response. Yeah. Uh
Cameron: that you, you didn’t, you didn’t sell and you know, you’ve seen the share price [00:24:00] halve and you’re like, quick, everyone go in and pump it back up again.
Tony: oh. Who knows? It may, may turn back up again. People may be awake to it now. Um, that TikTok you sent me also mentioned, I think it’s now called strategy, but it was called MicroStrategy, uh, back when I met the CEO many years ago when they were providing analytical software. And, uh, they pivoted to buy Bitcoin and I think they’re reporting this week in the US and that’ll be another watershed moment for Bitcoin because they hold a large amount of Bitcoin on their balance sheet.
And I don’t think they’ve been a seller so far, but they have leverage via placements they’ve continued to make to their, uh, shareholders. And when they raise more capital, they buy Bitcoin. And I think they’ve been doing it in term. The way they’ve been doing it is to issue convertible notes. And so as those start to convert, the shareholders might pressure them to sell down their [00:25:00] Bitcoin, which will be part of this cascading liquidation event.
Grand Sale. Grand Sale, grand Sale.
Yeah, but I, I actually think one of the big issues with Bitcoin is when the Wall Street ETFs, um, raised a lot of money and bought a lot of Bitcoin, um, or derivative Bitcoin products or whatever. I thought that was the, the trigger moment. I thought, you know, buy Bitcoin just before that happens. ’cause there’ll be a huge amount of buying going on.
This was when the a when the, um, when the US allowed for the first time, uh, banks and investment houses to buy Bitcoin on the wholesale, um, basis and offer it to retail. Retail customers buy their various products. Um, but I always thought it was a sell after that because if everyone’s crowded into the ETFs.
You know, it’s, that’s a large chunk of Bitcoin tied up and, um, who’s gonna top that [00:26:00] buying? And then people will get sick of waiting and they’ll start selling in. The ETFs will be required to sell, to redeem, um, and that’s just gonna be a problem.
Cameron: Well, I thought that’s what the guy was suggesting that people leveraged to buy into those ETFs or
Tony: now they’ve got margin calls. Yep.
Cameron: Yeah, I dunno. Uh, Phil, uh, sent me an email suggesting a couple of future pulled porks, MSV Mitchell services, which I feel you have
Tony: I did that 20 March, 2024. I looked it up.
Cameron: You did. I just
Tony: Yeah.
Cameron: So check that out, Phil. Uh, unless you think it’s due for another one, but that was episode 7 1 2 titled China Beats Expectations. Again, my annual, oh, look, China’s not falling over like everyone’s predicted story. He’s also suggested GVF, which he says is a listed investment company.
You familiar [00:27:00] with GVF?
Tony: I’m not, um, but it might be worth doing. It’s Chris cuff’s. I think it’s a global value fund. So I’ll have a look at it and if it’s worth talking about, I can do it next week ’cause I am running outta things to do. Our buy list either has stocks that have been there for a long time, like pepper money or it’s got nothing.
So
Cameron: yeah.
Tony: yeah, I’ll have a look at GVF next week.
Cameron: As opposed to our American buy list. Did you look into the company I’m doing today? Tusk.
Tony: No, just a brief look.
Cameron: Oh my God. I was telling Chrissy like, it’s another one of these ones with a like a. Major bribery scandal involving this company. Um, people, CEO went to jail,
Tony: I.
Cameron: et cetera, et cetera. I was like, we don’t get those stories in the Australia.
Like I’m sure there are stories of corruption and bribery and scandals in Australia, although probably not because asic are too at the wheel. But the, it’s like, it seems to me like 50% of the companies that I [00:28:00] do in the American pulled Porks have some major scandal, you know, um, bankruptcies or bribery or fraud or death by misadventure or something going on, dirty oil, dirty this, dirty that. And I’ve been wondering like, why is that so prevalent in the companies that are at the top of the US buy list? Obviously they’re discounted
Tony: Yeah. No one wants to buy them.
Cameron: this tarnish,
Tony: Hmm.
Cameron: at the top of the Australian buy list, we don’t come across.
Tony: No.
Cameron: Those sorts of
Tony: Good point.
Cameron: Is it because our regulatory framework is better?
Or Australians just less corrupt? Or, I I Is it the, the culture at Australia is different. I, I’ve been trying to, I thought you’d know being a
Tony: Oh, no, I don’t.
Cameron: married to senior
Tony: It’s, it’s hard to believe the regulatory infrastructure in Australia is better. [00:29:00] Yeah, it could be us, could be worse, but, uh,
Cameron: of these pulled porks, I get into them for the American cupboard, like, oh my God, what, what? That’s crazy. And yet we don’t, we like, Australia’s so boring. Our Paul Porks, they’re just, yeah, they’re running a business. They’re mining stuff. They’re running a bank, they’re running a retailer.
They’ve got a credit card. where’s the death? Where’s the bloodshed? Where’s the murder? Where’s the Shakespearean epic tragedy in Australian business Tony.
Tony: well, there has been some over the years, you know, the HIHs and the uh, um, other collapses, Opus, prime, et cetera. Christopher S. Case. Yeah. I saw in today’s paper that uh, Mr. Brey is going to release his autobiography. Ron Brey. Yeah.
Cameron: he dead? Didn’t we
Tony: No, I don’t. Oh,
Cameron: we said he was dead.
Tony: don’t think so. Well, he’s someone posing as Ron’s gonna release an autobiography there, [00:30:00] uh,
Cameron: yeah. No, he is still around 88 years old.
Tony: am Maria Window was, um, using that. It’s gonna be hard because he’s gonna self-publish it. It’s gonna be hard to release it
Cameron: I,
Tony: and self-publish it because his internet activities monitored because of his, um, previous charge charges.
Cameron: uh, but was he on the Epstein, is he in the Epstein files? Tony, that’s the important thing.
Tony: I dunno.
Cameron: not. Nobody’s in the Epstein files. I mean, uh, just, you know, side load. Um, I’ve, the, the, the Bill Gates Association
Tony: Mm-hmm.
Cameron: Epstein surprised me and shocked me, as did the affair stuff that came out about Bill a year or two ago, been a, you know, a follower of Bill since the eighties.
Tony: Mm-hmm.
Cameron: there for nearly 10 years, met him a couple of times. Like in my mind, bill was above all of that, [00:31:00] probably one of the smartest guys on the planet. Um, very, very, very, very much a, a nerd rich nerd, but a nerd nonetheless. He’s interested in science and tech and maths, and reading books and studying stuff. So when the affair stuff came out, it was shocking to me a little bit and, and also how badly managed it was, um, by the sounds of it. Uh, it wasn’t even, you know, he wasn’t even trying to not get caught. But the Epstein stuff, I could, I can’t join the dots with that. I just can’t imagine him being involved, like, okay.
We know that Epstein was, know, liked to surround himself with rich people and powerful people and philanthropists and scientists and, and you know, norm Chomsky spent time with him and that’s shocking. And there’s been a whole bunch of that. And, and I can imagine, okay, gates, as Gates is positioning it, uh, like I was just talking to him about philanthropic stuff, et cetera, et cetera. But then I saw Melinda, his ex-wife, [00:32:00] interviewed last week okay, so she’s got her issues with him. But if she had come out in that interview, ’cause they asked about it and said. I got, I, you know, bill and I have had our problems and you know, we’re divorced and all of that kinda stuff. But I have to say, having, you know, lived with him for 20 years and knowing him, well, the, you know, was, he couldn’t have possibly been involved in any of the horrible, horrible stuff.
It was all surface level philanthropic stuff. You know, they’ve got kids, they’ve got grandkids. His reputation is here, and she didn’t do that. She basically, she didn’t double down, but she also didn’t give him an out, a, a, an out. She just said, this is a time of reckoning for society, and basically threw him under the bus.
And I was like, holy hell. Like if she’s not, at least backing him up and coming to his defense with that. Aspect of it. [00:33:00] That’s not a good look. That’s a really bad look. Like I’ve got ex-wives, but I’m sure if I was in the Epstein files, even my ex-wives, even the ones that haven’t spoken to me in 30 years, would have to come out and go, listen, you know, Cameron, there’s no way Cameron is involved with
Tony: really?
Cameron: Well, I would like to think so. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Tony: Yeah. I, I can’t tell. I, I saw the interview with Melinda as well, but didn’t defend him. But it didn’t defend him. No. But she’s divorced from him as well.
Cameron: So what.
Tony: Well, he is, had affairs and all the rest, so there’s a bit of bit bitterness there.
Cameron: Sure, but I mean, they have kids and grandkids and his reputation now is like, I mean, it’s already suffered, but this is a whole new level of bad reputation. Anyway. All right. Enough of that. What else you got?
Tony: [00:34:00] Uh, well, speaking of takeovers, one of the. Companies that did a pulled pork on last year. So it would’ve been on the buy list last year as Appium, which was a vet chain. Uh, yeah. Yeah. So they’ve been, um, they’ve been taken over as well by a company called Adam Manam, a private equity group, which I always chuckle when I see it.
’cause it wasn’t at the Manti Young, the thing that they injected into Hugh Jackman to turn his bone into steel. The wolverine? Yeah.
Cameron: Adam anum in, science fiction, generally, it’s not just in Wolverine, but in science fiction, Adam Anum like, um, you know, fictional superpowered,
Tony: Oh, okay.
Cameron: or something like that. Yeah. Strongest, strongest metal to hu humanity. Uh
Tony: Well, this company’s called Adam Manam Capital, and they’ve, um, launched a bid at 87 cents, and the [00:35:00] price when I did the pulled pork was 54 cents in August. So, um, good luck to anyone who still holds Appium Health.
Cameron: Not us. I don’t hold them.
Tony: Okay.
Cameron: Dunno
Tony: Uh, let me have a look. Yes, A XH. Okay. Um, couple of articles, three articles in the AFR this week.
The first one talks about the volatility of Australian reporting seasons getting worse, and it says that, uh, August was the most volatile ever recorded, and the second, uh, most volatile was February before that last year. So they’re getting worse. There’s a few, few things in the article which they try and point to, to talk about why that might be.
Um, everything from quant. Funds flooding the market with buy and sell orders and for small parcels through to ai, checking the announcements as they’re made and, and buying or selling quickly. Um, and passive [00:36:00] funds. And I think probably passive funds is the one to be the most wary of, though. ’cause uh, um, you know, if something starts to move, they, they tend to, what’s the word I’m looking for?
Make that move bigger or smaller. Uh, magnify the move. Um, yeah. And, uh.
Cameron: us about that for a long time.
Tony: I have, and it’s the reason why I’m not prepared to buy now either during reporting season until we get the numbers so we can make our own mind up. Um, but yeah, expect, expect volatility in the portfolio. This, uh, this month, um, nothing I’m holding is reported yet.
Uh, so we’ll see what happens. We’ve still got a couple of weeks to go, but it will be volatile going forward.
Cameron: Hmm.
Tony: So there was that, um, article, which was interesting. Pepper money, I think we spoke about, uh, was one of the ones I had to talk about. And last thing on, um, on Gold Miners and tech companies was a, an article saying that, uh, some funds [00:37:00] who had been writing the, the, uh, what do they call it, SA as the, the capital light business, um, business model for investing.
Sorry, I’m just trying to find the article. Here we go. Uh, a company called QVG. Capital’s Opportunities Fund is one of the many small cap funds that invest mainly in technology and industrial stocks, and has been grappling with the growing presence of gold miners on its benchmark. So this is from the AFR.
Last week, the fund lagged the small ordinary index by 6.7% last month as its portfolio of companies from family tracking platform life 360, and by now payload operator zip code to athletics and analysis. Developer Catapult Sports were punished by the shift of money into the booming gold sector. Um, one of their founders says in the last week of January, the queues outside Martin Places Gold Bullion Depository started to reach Castle Ray Street.
We are Jelly. No one is lining up for our stocks. [00:38:00] QVG portfolio managers, Tony Waters and Chris Ti said, the rotation to resources have left the share prices of plenty of QVG style businesses floundering. So, uh, we’ve been in gold stocks all the way through, which has been good for us and it’s catching some people, um, napping.
Uh, but the other part about this article, which was interesting, was that the. ASX will rebalance, um, their indexes on March the sixth, and there are some gold stocks which are, um, set to move into the ASX 100. Some of those have been on our bio list, so West Gold Resources, Regis Resources and Vault Minerals.
Uh, joining me ASX 100, or you join the ASX 100 on March 6th, and then that will probably promote some passive investing, buying of them, but will also, you know, disrupt, um, ASX 100 investors as they try and grapple with the idea of buying gold miners. Um, and whether it’s late in the [00:39:00] cycle or not. So, uh, interesting article about how people, um, have been caught short by the gold mining boom, but not us.
Cameron: Hmm. Good for us.
Tony: So that was, uh, that was my three articles to go through. Um, and the last thing I’ve got is a pulled pork, and as you said, Atlas Pearls. You don’t like them, do you?
Cameron: Well, they’re just. Speaking of volatile.
Tony: Yeah.
Cameron: volatile. We, we’ve seen this before where they have these auctions and the auction can be a disaster. I’ve owned them before and they’ll have an auction and it’s a disaster and I have to sell it ’cause the share
Tony: Yeah.
Cameron: collapses like by 30% or something. Like, um, I’m just pulling up my, uh, trading history with them. Doo
Tony: So having said that, I’m just looking at their share price graph, and it has, it is of course, volatile, but, um, five years ago the share price was 1 cent [00:40:00] and today it’s 19 cents. So even though it’s been volatile, it’s been, it’s been generally going up.
Cameron: I bought them in December 23 at 13 cents. Sold them April 24 at 11 cents a rule one sell. And now they’re 19 cents. So would’ve done okay if I’d held it for another couple of years and hadn’t sold it, but,
Tony: Mm-hmm.
Cameron: okay. shut up and let you talk about them. Then I’ll stop bitching and moaning.
Tony: That’s all right. You can bit your man. All you like cost nothing.
Cameron: All
Tony: Uh, well we’ve spoken about them before, um, but I haven’t done pulled pork on them and apologies to listeners for me doing another small a DT stock. And this is a small one, but there wasn’t much choice this week on the bio. Um, they are Perth based, and I spoke last week about, um, my liking of WA companies.
So that gets a tick. Um, although [00:41:00] it’s, they’re not really Perth operating, they, their operations are in Indonesia, so I’m not sure whether the Perth economy benefits them or not. Uh, they’re best known for producing and selling in South Sea pearls, and in particular the sought after white and silver pearls from the Indonesian islands.
They operate eight farming locations. Um, throughout that, that Indonesian chain of islands, uh, they employ a thousand people or more than a thousand people, and they harvested, uh, last year between 500 and 600,000. Pearls and they’ve been doing that for a while now. So, uh, quite a prolific pearling company as far as, uh, I know.
And, and they claim they’re the only listed pearling company in the world. They commenced farming back in 1993 with their first farm located in Kupang East. No, at East Noosa. K. And, uh, they’ve then [00:42:00] expanded into other areas, including, uh, off the coast of Bali. So when I talk about Pearl Farms, these, these are of course in the ocean, in the seas, um, to the north of Indonesia.
And if you have an map of Indonesia, uh, in front of you, they kind of stretches along the archipelago from. Almost touching Pappy New Guinea, the western side of Pappy, new Guinea or West Papier, um, through to Malaysia and even further to the west of that. Uh, and all of these farms are spread out across those islands and they’re all on the northern end of those islands.
And that sort of, um, in the small seas, the jarvey, I guess is the biggest one, uh, which links into the South China Sea, but, um, stretched across the northern coast of the Indonesian Islands. Um, they have done a lot of work on what they call their structured breeding programs. And because of that, they’re able to maintain a supply of healthy, managed oyster stocks and they can [00:43:00] transport those between different farm sites, uh, which is important because oysters are incredibly sensitive to.
What’s going on in their environment to small changes in temperature, but also changes in nutrients or pollutants in the water. So the fact that they can move oysters between the farms, um, is, is good for them because, um, you know, hurricanes and cyclones blow through and flooding happens, which puts more nutrients in the water.
Um, so the fact that they have eight sites, uh, even though they’re all in Indonesia, they are quite wide apart and they can move from site to site. Um, to your point about the selling of the pearls through the auctions, and there’s been one. Recently in Kobe in Japan, or been a couple actually in Kobe in Japan.
Um, Atlas Pearls have been aware of the volatility of that market and they’re doing a fair bit to try and diversify away from that. Um, and work with customers, uh, both, uh, retail [00:44:00] and wholesale, um, and online and, uh, not place as much emphasis on those auctions going forward. The auctions will still play a big part in clearing their stock ’cause they’ve got, you know, half a million pearls to push each year.
Uh, but they are doing more and more, um, deals with, uh, jewelers and people, um, who like buying pearls, uh, sometimes for jewelry, sometimes for their own collections, um, behind the scenes. Um, unfortunately that means that, uh. South Sea pearls is one thing we can’t get a commodity graph for. Uh, there’s, it’s not a big enough market.
There’s no futures trading for it. Um, and it’s often an opaque market. It really only gets visibility when they hold these, uh, um, uh, public auctions for the sale of pearls. But a lot of the, the bottom and selling goes on behind the scenes with traders as well. Uh, the other thing that, that I should mention is that, um, they do have [00:45:00] a quite a strong ESG focus and, uh, they do a lot of work, um, in the local communities of the, of the, uh, pearl farming areas, uh, which are often very remote.
Um, and they also, uh, point out that they’re the, this type of farming, it’s called farming, it’s not really on land. Um, and it doesn’t involve all the chemicals and fertilizers that land farming does use. So it’s, it’s a very carbon light type, um, uh, operation as well. Uh, what else can I say about them? Um, I wanted to, to compare them to some other pearling companies that people might have heard of.
Probably the most high, high profile one in Australia is past Parley Pearls, and this all served to, I guess, um, highlight some of the um, uh, benefits of Atlas Pearls to its competitors. Been two main competitors in Australia over the [00:46:00] years, um, Paal and, uh, one called Carlos and Paal is, is probably the most high profile one, uh, because from time to time they’re on marketing around, um, PA Pearls.
But they also have, um, high end retail outlets. One of them is, um, in Martin Place in Sydney, right on the corner of, of, uh, one of the main streets there. George Street, I think. So, um, people may have wanted past it and seen it. Um, the difference between Pasal Pearls and Atlas Pearls is pasley, uh, cultivates from, um, the Wildes.
So they collect their pearls from the wild oysters, and we’re always talking about a group of oysters called the pink tartar, Maxima oysters, just to, to be clear. So there are other, many other, um, producers of pearls, but the, the, the south sea pearls that come from that one particular type of oyster, uh.
That the Paley Pearl from that wildly collected oyster, um, uh, which tends to happen, [00:47:00] uh, off the coast of Broome in, uh, in wa and um, maybe, uh, closer to Darwin in some places, but mainly Broome. Um, it’s those pearls are prized for their exceptional n ray thickness, um, surface quality and luster. So they tend to sell for sometimes tens of thousands of dollars, if not more.
Um, and they’re at the, the ultra premium into the market, whereas Atlas Pearls, um, even those, they still get, um, good prices for South Sea pearls, um, uh, have a, a large amount of volume which keeps the cap on the price. And they have, um. A operation which involves culturing and farming the, um, the pearls. So they control that rather than have to go and find them in, in, um, the natural areas.
Uh, and consequently they’re in the volume game, whereas pa Pallia in the, the high end price game. Um, there is a, [00:48:00] a another couple of things to note between the, the Australian source pool pearls and the Indonesian pearls. Um, one is obviously the cost infrastructure. So Australian wages are much higher than Indonesian wages, especially in remote areas.
And the Australian government caps, the number of oysters that can be opened or, or pearls that can be taken from the natural waters off broom to a certain number each year. So it restricts for ecological reasons, the, um, the supply of those pearls, whereas that kind of, um, policy doesn’t happen in Indonesia.
And, uh, because. Uh, Atlas Pearls are farming their own oysters. Uh, they can, um, expand as much as they like in terms of, um, regulation anyway. Uh, but Atlas Pearls does still face a number of, um, obstacles, um, in its industry. And I’m gonna highlight that by talking about an article I read, uh, by Laura Moore on a site [00:49:00] called J jewelry world net au.
And it was about her trip to Atlas Pearls in Indonesia. She says The journey begins in Atlas’s own hatchery, where microscopic oyster lava called spat a nurtured in a specialized algae based diet formulated. In the lab at four months old, the young oysters that are transferred to the ocean placed into holding nets suspended above little black boys.
The B‑U-I-Y‑S kind, um, which can be seen from the shore Atlas team works tirelessly diving daily to clean and check each oyster, ensuring its health as it grows. It takes two years before the oysters are ready to be seeded. A delicate procedure or a small piece of mantle tissue from a donor oyster along with a round nucleus is inserted into the gonad.
Kind of sat up straight when I read that.
Cameron: yeah.
Tony: The, the oyster then forms a pearl sack around the nucleus, slowly coating it in layers of NRA over the next two years. By [00:50:00] the time, the time the pearls are ready to be harvested in around four years of age. Only 50 to 60% will be considered jewelry grade. Watching this process unfold from the cleaning of young oysters to seeing larger shells prepared for seeding was a Mabb remarkable insight into the patients and skill required to produce pearls of this caliber.
And that article was from August last year. So it’s a fairly labor intensive and time consuming, uh, business. And they don’t see a result for four years, which is not unusual in farming terms. But, um, it’s not a sort of quick operation to go from starting to producing pearls. Uh, a bit of a history of the company.
Um, they’ve had a number of different name changes over the years. They publicly listed back in 1987, um, one of their original corporations was called Atlas Pacific Gold nl. And they started a life to pursue mining opportunities. But in the early 1990s. They pivoted into pearling when it acquired [00:51:00] interest in the Indonesian pearling farm in 1992.
The company was renamed several times as the strategy shifted. It’s been called in the past, Atlas Pacific at the South Sea, Pearl Atlas, pearls and Perfumes. And finally, Atlas Pearls Limited in December, 2017. Um, so that’s, that’s its timeline was interesting reading about the early people involved, none of which are still directors.
Um, but there are some large shareholders I’ll talk about later. But, uh, it was basically founded by marine biologists. So the original, uh, project manager was, uh, chap by the name of Dr. Peter purchase and he pioneered pearl farming in Coupang and West Timor. And he was a marine biologist and he.
Cameron: that Peter purchased pioneered pearls?
Tony: Yes, I am.
Cameron: say that 10 times fast.
Tony: I could not. Uh,
Cameron: Keep going.
Tony: um, so he, he successfully managed oyster [00:52:00] breeding and cultivation, which led to the early harvest in, uh, into the, in, in, in Indonesia. And he demonstrated that, uh, south Sea pearl farming could succeed, um, overseas. Uh, he was replaced by a person called Joseph Taylor, and he later completed the PhD, focused on the, the Maxima pearl oysters and contributed a lot of technical knowledge to the operation.
And then lastly, uh, professor Alex Kerr served as chairman of the board in the early development phase for the Indonesian operations. And, uh, the last person I should mention. Is an Indonesian called, goes by the name of Pac poa. Um, I think his full name is Admiral Radden Pani Po NoMo. And he was an influential Indonesian partner and former naval officer who helped secure local government support and oyster stock, um, access in East Indonesia.
So a lot of work went on from a marine biology point of view to, to see the [00:53:00] industry before Atlas Pearls. Um, uh, took a hold of it. Uh, but that’s, its, that’s its history. Something else to say about them was traditionally Indonesian pearls were dismissed as inferior versus the Australian South Sea pearls.
They were smaller often, um, not the white or gold color that, that people preferred. Um, but I dug up a, an article back in 1999. From of all people. Tim tread gold in, uh, the AFR. He’s one of our mining go-tos when it comes to, um, the Australian mining scene. But back in 1999, he wrote, uh, Australia’s Pearl Industry has been watching Indonesia very closely.
Owners such as the past Baileys, who account for 40% of the annual 300 million in production refused to publicly acknowledge the threat. However, an employee of the Paal business came up close to explaining the position in the rare interview published in a Australian geographic magazine in 1994. Uh, this is the skipper of a paal boat.
He said in Indonesia, for example, they operate [00:54:00] under a totally different tax and wages regime. One of their farms can run for a year on the annual wages of one of our employees. And I have 26 people on this boat alone. Um, but they lack the infrastructure and the technology that give us an edge. But I guess that’s, that sort of, um, that sort of wage differential’s been a big help for Atlas and they’ve put a lot of money into infrastructure and technology since 1999.
And so, uh, they’re becoming more successful as time goes on. Um, the other company to talk about in Australia was Kless, um, which were a, a, a couple of Greek immigrants in, in wa uh, who got into the pearling industry, mainly to use Mother of Pearl to make buttons. Um, and they were, um, exited that business because, uh, plastic buttons sort of overtook, uh, their business.
Um, but their daughter was a, a, again, a, um, a scientist and did a lot of work. [00:55:00] In the husbandry, seeding and farming of oysters. And so they, um, they pivoted from, uh, the oyster business of making buttons from the shell to the pearling business. Um, but they exited the pearling business in 2009 and um, it’s probably worth looking at why they did that.
So the fourth or six year, um, lifecycle from oyster seeding to harvest to sale was a long time to be invested for, for a, for a family business anyway. Um, they faced huge risks in terms of cyclones ’cause they’re operating in. Northwest of, of Australia, uh, Broome and, and closer to Darwin. Um, there, but there are also other biological risks, including disease temperature shifts in the water and algae blooms.
Um, and then the high fixed costs of operating boats and divers, divers and marine staff of compliance, which doesn’t exist in Indonesia, um, hurt them. And, [00:56:00] uh, they were ca by regulation on how much they could take from the, uh, from the areas. So they got outta the market, left it to PAs, barley, but even PAs, barley’s latest returns and there were private company seemed to suggest that they were feeling the pinch in the pearl side of their business.
And we’re pivoting more towards tourism and hotels. So, uh, maybe Atlas are in the right part of the industry going forward, but, uh, I guess time will tell. Um, Kayla has continued, they pivoted into jewelry making. You can go to their website now and see that. A lot of the jewelry they make uses, uh, pearls, which they, um, source from other places.
Uh, and they’ve made a go of being a jewelry company. So, um, uh, as they, as they put it, they’re closer to the customer than what they were, and they don’t have the, the six, four to 60 year, uh, lead times involved in, uh, in pearling. Uh, and so they’re, they’re doing better out of the jewelry [00:57:00] side of the business.
Um, so that’s a bit of an insight into the industry and into Atlas Pearls, the latest results. And I’m going back to June, 2025, show that sales were up 6% and profit was down 30%. Um, largely because they sold more pearls for a lower price, which is what you alluded to before. Cam. Um, their NTA was up though the 16 cents per share from 12.80 cents the year before and dividends were increased to 2.40 cents from 1.86 cents.
And they highlighted the fact that they were debt free. So, um, except for the profit side of things, pretty good results. Um, and even though profit was down, their NTA was up and their debt free and they increased their dividends. So, um, they were still. You know, see upside in their business to convince themselves to increase dividends.
Um, and they had an increase in NTA. Uh, but again, I highlight the fact that there is no, um, commodity we can track for this company, for pearl pricing. So, and it’s a bit of [00:58:00] an OPA opaque market, which is a risk for us looking at the QAV numbers, which again, are based on June, 2020 fives, and they’ll be updated fairly soon, I guess if you’re interested in the company.
I would wait until then. Um, small, a DT as I said, $27,000 a day, uh, even though they’re still a buy on the bread later. Um, they’re small. A DT stock price is 18.50 cents for this analysis, IV one 26 cents. Uh, so they’re trading below IV one. We don’t have an IV two because there’s no, no uncovering the stock.
So we have no consensus price target. And likewise, we have no consensus earnings per share forecast, so we can’t give ’em a. A growth over PE score, a grope score. Um, yield is currently 10.8%, which is very high Stock Doctor financial health and trend is strong and steady, but stock edia only have it as 76 in their quality ranking system and an F score of five out of nine.
So stock pedia at market down for quality Stock [00:59:00] Doctor tend to like it. Um, one thing I’ll highlight, which we don’t score for, but some people like to know, is that he has an ROE of 34%. So, um, uh, very strong margins in this business. Uh, stock edia, um, have a value rank of 97, but an overall rank of 78, so not high on their, on their ranking system.
PD ratio’s only 3.7, so, um, not the highest or the lowest, just almost the highest, but it scores a zero for us. Pr/OpCaf is below five at 4.94 times, so that’s good. The equity per share is 16 cents, so book plus 30 is 21 cents and and above the share price. So that gets a tick from us. Uh, directors hold 14% of the company and I, and I can’t find out, uh, much about these, um, owners, but there are two big holdings between the Martin family and a company called Raintree Pearls and Perfumes.
Um, neither appear to be [01:00:00] founders, but they both have long-term shareholdings. Uh, and Kim Martin, who holds 14% sits on the board. So, uh, I have score it for the founder, but, um. It, it isn’t really an owner, but they’ve been around for, sorry, a founder, but they’ve been around for a long time. There is consistently increasing equity, um, yields above the average mortgage rate.
So overall I’m getting a quality score of, uh, 13 out of 12. ’cause some of these items get the score of two or 108% and the QAV score of 0.22. So it’s reasonably high on the buy list, even though it’s a small a DT stock. Um, a lot of risks with this company, but also opportunities. So, um, biggest risk obviously is in, is in the pearl price market itself.
It’s opaque. There’s no commodity commodity index to track, so it will get belted around by, um, the auction events, even though this company has called out the faculty trying to build a lot more. Diversification into how they [01:01:00] sell their pearls. Um, even though they are spread across eight sites, um, if a big hurricane went through Indonesia, I’m sure they would all still get battered.
So natural disasters, biohazard and climate change, you’re all gonna be issues for oysters. They’re, they are very sensitive to even small changes in the water temperature, in small changes in the amount of nutrients in the water. I guess the upside is that, uh, they’re also good for their local environments because they filter a lot of the, um, the bad things outta the water, um, in those areas.
Uh, but doesn’t really help the business to do that, but it does keep it clean for future growth, I guess. Um, the other thing I wanna highlight is that, uh, this company often ends the year holding pearls in reserve. So if they can’t get the price they want. They pull a lot of the pearls from, from auction and they put them in reserve, which is a good way to manage their, um, their price points.
But if they, if that stockpile gets too big, [01:02:00] they’re gonna have to clear it a, a significant discount at some stage in the future. And that’s the kind of the classic, you know, retailing conundrum about maintaining margins versus clearing stock. So, um, they’ve gotta do well at managing that and it’s, it’s gonna be a risk for them going forward.
Positives, they’re obviously a low cost producer. The cost structures in Indonesia are much, much lower than in Australia, which seems to be its biggest competitor, at least for South Sea Pearls. Um, and I think, you know, if anyone’s interested in ESG investing, take a look at these people because they do.
Seem to, um, I I guess from their own accounts, uh, put a lot back into the local communities. And as I said before, um, a lot of what they do is, is good for the local, um, environment, uh, in terms of purifying the water and they’re not using, um, any nutrients or chemicals, et cetera, which can be harmful to the environment.
So there’s a lot to like about Atlas Pearls, but it is risky and it is small, so have a look, especially when it re uh, [01:03:00] uh, releases its results.
Cameron: What do you think about pearls? Tony, you’re a fan of pearls.
Tony: Uh, I’m agnostic. I know they cost me a lot of money ’cause I buy them for Jenny. She loves them. So she’s got some pearl necklaces and pearl earrings, which I’ve bought for her over the years.
Cameron: Does she wear them?
Tony: Yeah, she loves ’em.
Cameron: I,
Tony: Um, and they’re often, I don’t know if they’re South Sea pearls, she’s got a couple of the white ones and the gold ones, but she often goes after fresh for the pearls, which are cheaper and come in different colors, blues and grays and purples and things.
Cameron: I bought Chrissy, I think a pearl necklace for our wedding. I think she wore it when we got married. It was a wedding gift. I think she’s worn it maybe once since
Tony: Oh no. Jenny wears hers a lot.
Cameron: I don’t know. Alright. Well Jenny probably dresses up and goes out more than we do. too poor to go out. Uh, well thank you Tony.
Tony: the go out. Listen to you flew. Flew down to [01:04:00] Sydney to go to the premier. Went to Annie. You didn’t fly to Sydney. I thought you went to
Cameron: of
Tony: Epic. I thought you went to Epic with, with Taylor. I was on the Gold Coast, sorry.
Cameron: drove down. Yeah, yeah,
Tony: Oh, okay.
Cameron: Flew down. No, I was the taxi driver. That’s the only reason I got an invite to the premier is he needed someone to drive him down to the Gold Coast. That was, that’s my job. Uh, well thank you for that, Tony.
You’ve changed my views on Atlas Pearls. Uh, I guess I’m not as dirty on them as I have been. I’ll have to take the note out of my notes, which says volatile. Uh, I’ll give them a pass now as a result of your good work. Alright, after hours, Tony, then we can go talk about America.
Tony: Yeah, watched a couple of good things this week, camp. Um, yeah. Uh, night of the Seven Kingdoms, which is a Game of Thrones prequel, said a couple hundred years in the past. Oh, this one’s really good.
Cameron: [01:05:00] You said that about the last one
Tony: Yeah, that was good too.
Cameron: nah, it’s not good.
Tony: Okay. Well, so far this one’s only had about four episodes, but I, Jenny and I are both really enjoying it.
It’s, um. Uh, I think the book that’s based on is called the Hedge Night. So it’s about a hedge night, which is basically a knight who roams the land, camping out, not really aligned to anyone living in pastures and near streams and things. And, uh, this guy, uh, wants to enter a tournament to prove himself and to make himself a bit richer and gets, gets pulled into all the western Austin intrigues in the various houses, Taggar, et cetera.
That goes on even back before Game of Thrones as set, but really, really good fun. Really enjoying it.
Cameron: violent and sexy?
Tony: No, there’s not as much of that in there. There’s a lot of, a lot of crude stuff, you know, ’cause it’s, the producers are at the pains to show it’s a, you know, uh, medieval times, all the people going to the toilet in public, that kind of thing.
[01:06:00] But, um, but no, not as sexy at this stage. Anyway,
Cameron: Right.
Tony: more wholesome.
Cameron: Ah ha. What else?
Tony: Uh, task, which is both of those are on, um, HBO Max. Have you seen task made by the producers of, um, mayor of, um, what was it, mayor of East Town?
Cameron: Oh, the mayor of East? Yeah. The, um, what’s her name?
Yeah, I did see that.
Tony: Yeah.
Which is really good. And this is made by the same producers in a similar sort
of style. Mark Rolos in this one though, rather than,
um
Cameron: seen the trailer 400,000 times.
Tony: Okay. Really good. Worth, worth watching,
Cameron: show me the same trailer over and over and. over again. Yeah. Oh, that’s good. Yeah.
Tony: Yeah, pretty gritty.
And it centers around the Dark Hearts motorcycle group and the drug dealings and how they’ve drawn in a, some poor, a poor family, and Philadelphia or on the outskirts of Philadelphia. and then Ruff Low plays [01:07:00] the um, FBI task Force Commander, who’s tracks and track ’em all down.
He’s got his own problems. It’s um, it’s a slow burn. Like it’s, it’s our an hour episode, so you really get into the nitty gritty of each of the characters And we liked it. And then, but by episode three, have one of those holy shit moments, like one of those surprises and you start to think, oh, there’s no way out here.
How are they gonna get outta this? And that really hooks you into the rest of the series, which is good.
Cameron Reilly: Mark Rolo turn into the Hulk?
Is that. what happened?
Tony: No,
Cameron Reilly: That would’ve been a twist.
Tony: well, he kind of did. ’cause like there’s, at one stage in the show he is saying like, I’m always 60 years of age and can’t do this and can’t do that. And in the one of the last sequences he’s fighting a biking gang leader. Um, and throwing him down on the floor and wrestling and going, yeah,
Cameron Reilly: Hey, my,
Tony: it’s not, not
Cameron Reilly: seafood’s nearly 60. He could do that.
He could take on a Bikey gang and he’d win. [01:08:00] Um, well, it’s good. I’ll check those out maybe. So, um, yes, I went to the Elvis
Doco, uh, with Baz Luman, uh, And Richard
Wilkins, who does not look good.
Tony: Oh,
Cameron Reilly: ooh. Does
not look good. It was weird, like, um. It’s been a while since I’ve been to, uh, anything like that.
Gold Coast, you know, lots of plasticy looking people, uh, in some interesting outfits. Um,
the,
Tony: It’s funny how that’s changed, hasn’t it? I went to, um, sorry to interrupt. I went to a gym in Mornington, had my car, had some work done in the car, and that’s the closest dealership. And just the difference in the people like my normal gyms in Roseburg, which is one of. Poorest postcodes in Victoria, and then going up to Mornington.
Just the girls all had butt implants and thick lips and just going, wow.
Cameron Reilly: now look like this.
Tony: Mm. [01:09:00] Yeah.
Cameron Reilly: Um, the film itself, are you an Elvis fan?
Tony: Yeah.
Yeah.
Cameron Reilly: So the, the setup Baz did a q and a afterwards that Richard Wilkins ran, and, and it was good Like Baz gives good q and a I’ll give him that. Very, very chatty. Um, the, the story is when he did the Elvis biopic a few years ago with Austin Butler, he heard a rumor from like an Elvis um, expert, that there was this footage that was taken when he was. Behind the scenes footage of him preparing for the Las Vegas is first Las Vegas shows in 69 that had never been seen and it was buried in a vault somewhere and they tracked it down in a vault in a salt mine in Kansas City, and it was like 68 reels of footage of Elvis getting ready behind the scenes.
So that’s. Predominantly [01:10:00] what this is. It’s an edit of, that. um, but the problem was they didn’t have sound for some of it, so they had to recreate what it would’ve sounded like. They have Elvis’s vocals for bits, And they use that, but they didn’t have great backing sound for the band and the choir and that kinda stuff.
So they had to get. People in and rerecord it and then edit it all together and stuff. But look, if you’re an Elvis fan, as I am, it’s always great to see Elvis. He sort of, I’ll say in his prime, You know, his second prime good shape, um, just with his charm and his sense of humor. and he just comes across as a nice guy in all of this, the way he treats the band and the crew and the people in the hotel and the audience. and he’s, he’s always got this thing where he is doing something ridiculously dramatic on stage, but then he’s got a little smile on his face, like he’s chuckling to himself at how stupid it all is, but. You know, but Baz and the q and [01:11:00] a made a good point. Did you see the 68 special documentary that came out A couple of years ago?
Tony: Yeah.
Cameron Reilly: They made the point in that, which I thought was really interesting in that when he came back from Korea And he did like one live thing and then Colonel wouldn’t let him do live anymore, And he did all the crappy films and he made a lot of crappy albums and he was Spent the sixties really struggling for relevance in rock and roll ’cause the Beatles and the Stones and the Doors, and everyone was doing their thing. A lot of people writing great songs, but he wasn’t getting any of them because they were recording them themselves. Uh, or they were, you know, going to share, or Tina Turner or whatever. and so he got second rate material and then he wasn’t sure he could perform live and it would be relevant. and he did the 68th special And that was great.
But then he was gonna do the Vegas thing. And, um, a lot of people, he said, RO Baz was saying Rolling Stone turned up magazine, [01:12:00] and they were expecting it to be just, you know, a bit like a, an oldies tour. Like rolling out the old hits and a bit pretty lame. And of course, Elvis came out with this massive sound and massive band, and the choir and he took all of these like Simon and Garfunkel numbers, like bridge over troubled water and made it this massive production.
And BA was saying, you know we look back at Elvis in Vegas in the seventies before he got. Uh, grossly overweight, you know, in these late 69 through to 74, 75, and we think of it as sort of iconic, but he said at the time.
Tony: Hmm.
Cameron Reilly: people didn’t, ex people thought it was gonna be pathetic and it came out And he just blew everyone away.
Um, so that’s what we’re seeing is Elvis preparing for that, not knowing if it was gonna work, not knowing if you know, how it would be taken, um, and just working his ass off to really shock people that he could, [01:13:00] he could deliver. Having said all of that. Is it worth going to the cinema to see? No, not really.
No. I would’ve happily washed it at home. And is it the best thing on Elvis I’ve seen? No, the 69. the 68. Documentary is much better, much more insightful, I think, um, you know, watching a full performance of him Aloha Hawaii or anything like that. Way better. Um, so yeah, it was okay. Then we went to the after party and Baz was there and I wanted to go talk to Baz to tell him that I love the get down. Did you ever watch the Get Down?
So it was a limited series that he did on Netflix 7, 8, 9 years ago. It was about the early days of hip hop, like a fictionalized telling about a group of young guys in the Bronx or
Brooklyn or somewhere. But then it has people playing Grandmaster Flash and you know, all of the early hip hop guys. And it’s sort of like a behind the scenes. Musical [01:14:00] comedy thing about the early days of hip hop, starting in little clubs and DJs, you know, coming up with the, the drum beat and then talking over the top of the drum beat to keep people interested in dancing. And you know how that turned into hip hop? It was really good.
Um, I don’t think anyone’s seen it, Chrissy, and I loved it anyway. Hunter wouldn’t come with me to go talk
to him, so we’re allowed to go.
Tony: Oh, you needed Hunter.
Cameron Reilly: I was like come and come and talk to me with
Baz.
And
Tony: and say hello.
Cameron Reilly: I’m not doing that.
Tony: You want, just go and talk to him
Cameron Reilly: Yeah, I could’ve, I
could’ve. He was talking to
Tony: How did Baz look? ’cause I
saw him on TV this morning as well. Yeah. He looked, I, I dunno if it was work done, but he looked like he’d been through the makeup chair
to before he went on camera.
Cameron Reilly: Uh, I think Neil Diamond, uh, like yeah, early nineties. Um, big hairpiece, plastic
Tony: Mm-hmm.
Cameron Reilly: Yeah. Terrifying. Uh, the, flip side of that is, uh, a film that Hunter [01:15:00] recommended to me is Vive new film.
Perfect Days.
Tony: Oh, I love inventors,
Cameron Reilly: too. Um, this is story is, um. There’s a, company in Tokyo called the Tokyo Toilet, and the, basically they got, it’s like 20 architects each to design a toilet complex toilet block, uh, in Tokyo, like Avantgarde architecture that they run like beautiful.
Amazing toilet blocks and they wanted Vim vendors to come over and do something and it he just, it was started off as gonna be like a documentary. He said, I don’t want a do documentary. So he did a, it’s a dramatic film about a guy older Japanese guy who lives a very simple aesthetic life and, he just cleans these toilet blocks.
That’s all he does, but he’s like a perfectionist. And he treats it, he treats it. like it’s a
spiritual exercise.
Tony: That came out a while ago, didn’t it? I remember reading [01:16:00] a review about
Cameron Reilly: I think it came out last year Yeah, it just it just hit streaming. It’s on, um, oh, it’s on
SBS actually is where we’re watching it.
Tony: Oh, okay.
Cameron Reilly: Beautiful. Absolutely beautiful. You know, and, uh, yeah, if you like Vim vendors, watch it. and and the soundtrack is, you know, Lou Reed and Patti Smith and all these sorts of things.
Great. Sort of seventies. Bay soundtrack, beautiful film. And then I told you before we went to air that I finally watched the IPC Crest file, read the book last year or whatever, watched the Michael Kane film.
Fantastic. Michael Kane is so great in this film. And his attitude towards his superiors is so
fantastic. Just a smart ass. I only one of his guys says he’s being transferred and he doesn’t have my
sense of humor. He goes, I’ll miss that sir. I’ll miss your sense of humor. But the final line after he’s been tortured and the whole thing, and he says to his boss, the major, I caught a big killed or driven mad.
And [01:17:00] his boss says, that’s what you’re paid for. and, that’s it it was such a great anti-bot sort of uh, line, you know,
Tony: Yeah. Well that was the whole thing about Harry Palmer, wasn’t it? That he was meant to be the working class guy in all these British institutions. And Bond was the commander, um, who followed orders And, well, didn’t follow orders as much, but, but stayed within the hierarchy.
Cameron Reilly: lived an amazingly luxurious lifestyle. This guy’s, you know, working out of, you know, rundown
buildings and, uh,
Tony: Yeah. More slow horses than
Cameron Reilly: Yes, exactly. Yeah. Yeah. But I I was reading up on it and they were saying that, you know, Kane, like it was one of his. First big roles and it was like the working
class actor, he represented the British
working class who was you know, a tough guy doing cool stuff, but had that accent and you know,
that look, et cetera.
He, his [01:18:00] working, were in big
glasses.
Tony: And, and people would say to him, you know, you’ll never get far with that accent. And he said, well, surely someone wants to see a a working class. London. London, they’re on the screen. And he was right.
Cameron Reilly: Which they said to Connery about his accent too, um, in the early sixties, and they both made it work with their
accents. Mm-hmm.
Tony: I saw a great clip. See, I don’t know what’s going on, but I get lots of clips of Michael Kane interviews on my feeds at the moment because I, I love him. And, uh, there was a clip last night about Kane uh, Michael Kane saying how he met Sean Connery. ’cause he’d known Sean Connery for a long time. They were mates.
And, uh, he said, well, I went to this, I went to this. Party and you’re supposed to bring a bottle and a bird, but I couldn’t afford a bottle, so I bought two birds and then Sean came in and I was instantly his best friend.
Cameron Reilly: Yeah. Uh, and it was Chrissy’s birthday on Sunday and I made her a carrot cake [01:19:00] at
her request. I make, I make a cake once a year. It’s for Chrissy’s birthday, and I gotta tell you, this was the greatest carrot cake. It’s ever been made in the
history of mankind. It was absolutely.
Tony: get Chrissy on to, to give us a review
Cameron Reilly: It was epic.
Fox loved it. She loved it. I loved it. Epic. That’s the name of
the Elvis documentary. But the cake too was epic. so I’m thinking that’s my new career. I’m gonna be a carrot cake baker. Gonna open up a bakery. Just carrot cake.
Tony: Yeah. Well, it’s fairly niche. It’s fairly niche.
Cameron Reilly: Sourdough bread and carrot cake. That’s gonna be my thing when the AI takes
Tony: the, keep the recipe secret, so yeah. Hey, I can’t
Cameron Reilly: Well, I got the recipe from ai, so I, I said, gimme a recipe for carrot cake. All right, that’s all I’ve got. Thanks to Kate.
Tony: Thanks.
Bernard: Q A V is a checklist-based system of value investing [01:20:00] developed by Tony Khyneston. over 25 years. To learn more about how it works and how you can learn the system, visit our website, Q A V Podcast dot com dot A U.
This podcast is an information provider and in giving you product information we are not making any suggestion or recommendation about a particular product. The information has been prepared without taking into account your individual investment objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Before you decide whether or not to acquire a particular financial product you should assess whether it is appropriate for you in the light of your own personal circumstances, having regard to your own objectives, financial situation and needs. You may wish to obtain financial advice from a suitably qualified adviser before making any decision to acquire a financial product. Please note that all information about performance returns is historical. Past performance should not be relied [01:21:00] upon as an indicator of future performance; unit prices and the value of your investment may fall as well as rise. The results are general advice only and not personal product advice.
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Quote of the day: [01:22:00] “To the world: Your harmony is mine. Whatever time you choose is the right time. Not late, not early. To nature: What the turn of your seasons brings me falls like ripe fruit. All things are born from you, exist in you, return to you.” “Meditations.” Marcus Aurelius

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