QAV 614 CLUB
Thu, Apr 06, 2023 10:10PM • 52:58
Welcome back to the QAV podcast. This is episode 614. We’re recording this earlier than normal. Monday, the third of April 10:30am in Brisbane, Sunday night in sleazy Las Vegas where Tony is doing very unsleazy things if I know Tony, very wholesome, very wholesome things, I’m sure you’re doing, Tony, over there. How’s Vegas?
Well, Vegas is very sleazy, I’ve got to say, and full of people and probably COVID, because Ruddy’s down with COVID.
Oh, that sucks.
Snow in Vegas? The middle of the desert. Oh my god.
I’m okay, everyone else seems to be okay — touch wood. Yeah. You know, there’re ladies standing out there in thongs and nothing much else handing out pamphlets. It’s sin city all right. But I’m playing golf. I don’t really like Vegas as a place. Like, for me, Vegas is like Surfers Paradise mixed in with Crown casino and multiplied twenty times, so I don’t get off on that. But the golf courses are really good. They’re a little bit expensive. We played five days straight on some really good golf courses, and we even had snow one of those days, which was amazing.
In spring, too.
Yeah, it was crazy. It was cold. We’re still on the outskirts of Vegas, but we’re up in the hills a little bit, and these really dark clouds rolled in and it snowed, then it cleared up about an hour later and we were back out and kept playing. But it must have been about two degrees, I think.
So, you were playing on snow? How do you play golf on snow? Orange balls so you can see them?
You can’t play. No, well it’s just like playing in a heavy rain, but then the greens become unputtable. They were just like putting through a big puddle of water.
We also need to talk about your birthday party.
Yeah, that was great fun.
That was a crazy night. You had a good time?
I had a great time. Did you enjoy it?
Yeah, I was pleasantly surprised that how good The Angels were. Like, The Angels come out, it’s basically like an afternoon at the retirement village. Bunch of old bald fat white guys come out, and their son’s on bass and drums, but they played their asses off. They were tight, the vocals were great. You told me it wasn’t Dave Gleeson, it was the original drummer from The Angels doing the vocals this time?
Correct. I think his name is Nick Norton, and they’re actually thinking of replacing Dave with him because Dave’s going back to The Screaming Jets, apparently.
Well, I thought Mr Norton did a tremendous job doing his best Doc Gleeson, and they were just… It was great. It was loud, and we forgot to take earplugs for poor Fox, so his head was crushed about an hour into it. He was being a trooper. Chrissy went out and bought him some earplugs from a convenience store, but they didn’t do any good and wouldn’t stay in his ears, and so he spent the first hour with his fingers in his ears. And I kept saying, “do you want to go? We can go,” and he’s like, “no, I don’t want you to miss out. You know, it’s fine.” But it was obvious after about an hour, he was just… His brains were turning to mush. So, we left on like the second last track or something like that. But yeah, no, it was a great night. Thank you for inviting us and congrats. There were some lovely speeches from some of your friends, some QAV club members were there. I have no idea what the present was that we all chipped in and got you, but did you take it to Vegas with you?
I haven’t, no. So, the present was a remote control golf buddy. Yeah, a powercaddy they’re called, so I can keep playing golf as an old man.
Yeah, just to make golf a little bit lazier than it already is as a sport, you have a robot golf buggy that follows you around.
Go and try playing golf for five days straight and see how lazy you feel.
Just a leisurely walk around a nice field. Every now and again you hit something, then you walk a little bit more.
Yeah, that’s it. Just do it for four or five hours straight each day.
Your actual birthday is not until tomorrow, Australian time. Fourth of April, right?
That’s right. And I haven’t been drinking, so I haven’t had a drink for five months now, but I may have a whiskey Tuesday night our time, which is the fourth over here. And the last day of our trip in Vegas.
Yeah, you didn’t even have a drink at your birthday party, I was impressed.
No, I didn’t feel like it.
Don’t need it to have a good time, right?
Correct, yeah. And you know, I’m just really coping with travel and nonstop golf and busy schedules without drinking, it’s much better. It’s got its advantages.
There’s twenty guys on this trip and about half of them are from Mullumbimby, and they’re all celebrating their fiftieth birthdays, so they are going hammer and tong nonstop. Comparing notes were the cheapest beer is on the strip, and then just hitting it like a pack of locusts. And, yeah, getting up or just turning up and playing golf, and falling asleep on the bus on the way home and then doing it all again.
Yeah, I don’t know how people do it. You know, I haven’t lived like that since I was, I don’t know, seventeen/eighteen, going that hard. I don’t know how people keep it up into their fifties.
Six months for us.
Yeah, since we hit it that hard.
Oh, yeah. Yeah, right. Well, good for you. I’m sure there will be many health benefits for you by cutting back a bit for a while. Well, let’s move on from your birthday celebrations and talk about some investing, because I know you’ve got dinner plans and you gotta go.
Yes, we got dinner and then we’re gonna go and see Penn and Teller for the nine o’clock show.
Oh, fantastic. I’ve always wanted to see them. That’ll be fantastic.
Yeah. And we saw The Beatles “Love” again the other night, which was great. The Cirque du Soleil.
So, we saw that in 2018 when we were over there, right? No?
Correct. Around then.
When were we there? 2017 I think we were in Vegas together. Yeah. Good stuff.
The show has changed a little bit, but it’s still really good.
Yeah, terrific. I love a good Cirque show. Of course, Vegas is where Chrissy and I got married, so it has… I hate Vegas, she hates Vegas, too. It’s terrible, but we got married there so it has one redeeming factor in my history. Anyway, onto investing. It’s been a surprisingly good week in the markets. You should go away more often, Tony, you go away.
Oh, happy to.
… The market has a good week. It’s been up. I don’t know of commodity updates, because we actually haven’t finished the buy list yet for this week, but I can do a quick portfolio update. The dummy portfolio since inception — for new listeners that’s second to September 2019 — our dummy portfolio is up 17.56% CAGR per annum over that period, versus the benchmark that we use, the STW, the SPDR 200 Fund, which is up 6.84% CAGR per annum over the same period. So, as it has been recently, we’re not quite three times the benchmark, but pretty close to it. Three sevens are twenty-one, we’re about seventeen and a half, eighteen. So, yeah, we’re a little bit under three times the benchmark. For the financial year to date we are up 9.72%, actually no 12.28% per annum. I don’t know, Navexa gives me two numbers. There’s a chart, a little graph that says 9.72, but then the summary above says 12.28, versus the STW, which it says is at 13.85 for the financial year. So, for a while there we were lagging the STW for the financial year quite a bit. We’ve nearly caught up, and there’s a couple of months left to go. So, we’ll see where we end up. In the last seven days, we’re up 2.93%, STW is at 2.65%. Some stocks have done pretty well in the last week. RSG, Resolute Mining up 11% in the last week. What else have we got here? Lindsay up 6.3%. Lindsay’s been on a corker run.
They’re both transport logistics companies.
Right. It’s not in the dummy portfolio, but in one of our light portfolios, is something I wanted to talk about, is ALO. I think this happened just when you left. Alloggio Group, Alloggio I think they pronounce it. So, it was announced last week that Alloggio is being acquired by a group called Next capital, and their share price went up 45% in a day based on the acquisition price. It’s fantastic for those of us that held it in their portfolio. It is now up 80% since we bought it back in September ’22. So, again, as I pointed out on our Facebook page, and we’ve seen this happen a few times since we’ve been doing this show together. If we think something is undervalued, quite possibly other people think it’s undervalued, and they come and buy it and we go along for the ride.
Correct. That’s interesting that Next Capital is involved. I actually know one of the principles there and play golf with him occasionally.
Did you put a little word in his ear?
We haven’t colluded on this one. No, in fact, Patrick Elliot often comes along on some of these trips with us well. So, yeah, that’s interesting. But yeah, I think you’ve said it exactly right, that if we’re seeing value in a company, then somebody else is going to see value in a company. I just wish someone would see some more value in mine and take some over and give us an extra boost. But it’ll happen at some stage.
Yeah, well, that was very exciting. It’s not very often you see a share go up nearly 50% in a day. Very exciting for those of us that hold. Didn’t really help the two-two-one portfolio and light enough to get it back up into the black. That’s the one we closed just before the market crashed in April last year, but it gave it a nice little bump. Just one other thing I wanted to mention, so last week, the week before last — we had Tim Lincoln on last week, so the week before that — we had a question about something you said way back in one of our first episodes about ETFs and the size of ETFs on the market. And you reiterated your source for that as Stock Doctor and the valuations. Like, you were saying that according to Stock Doctor, the biggest ETFs in Australia are up around like SPY 555 billion?
Well, that’s what Stock Doctor’s saying, yeah, Not sure if it’s million or billion.
Well, the $555,615 million.
Right. So, half a billion.
$555,615 million is half a billion? They put six zeros on the end of all these numbers.
Oh, okay. Sorry.
I don’t know how to read it, my brains not working. Monday morning. Yeah, it says market cap in the millions, and then it has 555, 615.
You should add three zeros to it.
That makes it… No, you’re right. Six zeros. It’s in millions, isn’t it? Yeah, no, so it’s a billion. Yeah, sorry.
$555 billion. Whereas according to List Corp’s list of ETFs in Australia, the largest is Vanguard at $11.86 billion. Now, Chairman Mabb of the Australian Shareholders Association reached out to me last week, he said “yeah, mate, I checked the numbers on List Corp and I checked them on the ASX as well, Stock Doctor’s way out here.” He thinks the List Corp list is is the right one. So, I emailed Victor De Pascuale at Stock Doctor, I said, “can you have a look at this for me and tell me what’s going on? I’m sure there’s a reasonable explanation.” He had a quick look and came back to me and said, “yeah, I think our list is wrong. I don’t know what’s going on there. I’ll ask the analysts and I’ll get back to you.” So, he hasn’t yet, but just an FYI that we think Stock Doctor is leading us astray there.
Just to comment on what you sent through, Cam, the List Corp list of ETFs has the VAS, Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF, as the largest on that list. That’s $11.6 billion. Stock Doctor have VAS at $8.05 billion, so there’s a discrepancy there, but it’s not as big as some of the other ones. So, that may be a timing issue. But do you have a List Corp valuation for SPY or VAP or BTS?
They don’t come up on that top ranking there. What’s this one? Vanguard Australian shares, VH… So, we have VHY in both lists we can compare. List Corp has VHY at number eleven at $2.7 billion. Stock Doctor has VHY at $49.3 billion.
Okay, there’s something crazy going on.
A bit of a difference in that.
it’s interesting List Corp don’t have SPY, for example. I wonder if it’s just listening ETFs that just deal with the Australian…. oh no, there’s an S&P 500 there. Don’t know. Let’s see what Stock Doctor have to say.
Yeah, I just wanted to flag that with everyone. I mean, I don’t think anyone was investing in ETFs who listens to this, but just by the by, we’ll get some clarification on that.
Well, there might be, but the question was asked about my comments about how ETFs can amplify a market downturn. And so, if the List Corp numbers are right, that magnification is going to be miniscule, but if the Stock Doctor numbers are right, it’s going to be a real thing. So, we’ll just need to work out who’s right there.
And for what it’s worth, Chairman Mabb said to me that he thinks the threat of ETFs is massively overblown, and he thinks they’re very tiny, a very tiny component of the Australian marketplace and there’s a lot of misinformation or misunderstanding about them. So, that was his two cents.
Okay, no, I’ll defer to him.
Well, he is the Chairman of the Board.
Chairman of the Board, yeah. He should be in Vegas.
He should be in Vegas, yeah, up on stage, singing “The Lady is a Tramp.” What else have you got to talk about before we get into a couple of questions? We don’t have many questions today, so do you have anything else you want to touch on? I don’t think you’ve been paying much attention to the market in the last week, have you?
I haven’t, no. I’ve skimmed through the Fin Review. That’s about it.
Although you told me that you had a bunch of sells that you had to do just before you left the country?
Yeah. They all turned around while I was on the plane, so I’m fine. That was lucky.
Oh, so you didn’t sell them. You just told Alex?
No, Macquarie group had breached, one of the tranches I bought breached a rule one, but then when I looked at it, I thought, well, I shouldn’t be doing rule one prices for purchase, I shouldn’t be doing it as an average. So, it was still, when I reviewed it, it was still above the average. So, I decided to just let it ride, and when I got off the plane Macquarie had gone up anyway a little bit. So, I was fine. So, Macquarie’s good, didn’t have to sell. And look, the only comment I wanted to make was that Bloomberg TV here and newspapers are still full of “America’s gonna be in recession” forecasts, but I’m not seeing any sign of that at all at the moment. I mean, Vegas is full, golf courses are full. And maybe Vegas is an anomaly, and maybe out in the heartland of America it’s not as good. But certainly, I think it’s more expensive over here than it has been in the past for me, but that’s probably a combination of inflation but also Australian dollar being so low. So, not really paying much attention to that. But yeah, I’m not seeing any signs of recessions or looming recession. So, I’m not sure what to believe there in terms of economic forecasts. It may happen but looking good at the moment.
What do you think’s going to happen when Trump gets arrested on Tuesday?
Tell you what, it’s interesting being over here with all that going on, for sure.
I bet. Is it crazy?
Oh, not really. I mean, we’re in Vegas, so it’s not a thing here. But you know, people are talking about it, for sure. It’s either people on one side of politics saying “hey, he’s due,” and the other side of politics saying…
He’s a Jew?
Yeah, he’s due to be incarcerated.
Oh, not that he’s a Jew. No.
Yeah, like, I’m shocked, not because I don’t think Trump has probably broken many, many laws, but, you know, generally American presidents skate on anything that they did during their presidency. It’s like the third rail of American politics, apart from you don’t do anything about gun control. You don’t go after ex-presidents for whatever the hell they did. It’s just, you don’t go there. Because if you do, it opens up Pandora’s box, and once you once you open that every ex-president can be pulled up on all of the dirty criminal shit that they’ve all done, I don’t care who it is. But anyway, I was shocked that they finally seem to be stepping over that line. We’ll see how it plays out.
No, not a Jew, he is due to be incarcerated. And the other side saying it’s the weaponization of the legal system to politicise Trump, but I’m waiting for Tuesday. We’re debating whether they’re gonna have to send the black Escalades in to bring him out in cuffs or whether he’s going to voluntarily surrender himself. So, that’ll be very interesting. But either way, he’s still raising money. As soon as the charges were dropped, he’s out there with all these ads saying, you know, “this is a terrible injustice that’s being handed out to me,” and, you know, “contribute to my fighting fund.” It’s just amazing.
It’s always fun to turn on Fox News here in the States, it’s full of just the most lunatic rhetoric about how this is, you know, anti-globalist elitist collusion to stop the greatest hero in American history from rerunning for president. And then you get the other side of politics on CNN, who are quite rightly pointing out that Trump’s approval rating is going to go up if he’s indicted, because Clinton’s did when he was impeached, and Trump’s did when he was impeached. And so, people are pretty apathetic, but if they sent any sort of injustice, they’re gonna rally behind anyone. Doesn’t matter who they are.
And the funny thing about the Fox’s support for Trump is that we now know from the Dominion court case that all the Fox News hosts and management hate Trump privately. Tucker Carlson and everybody on there are just talking about what an idiot he is and how they can’t wait to see the back of him.
Well, yeah, both of those things were handed down on the same day over here. So, the judge ruled the Dominion case could go on to a trial and Trump was indicted both on the same day. Republicans were scratching their heads trying to work out what to say, what to do.
Rupert Murdoch hates Trump, all of the guys at Fox hate Trump, but they’re still his number one supporter. It’s hilarious. Anyway, back to investing. You want to do a pulled pork?
I do. Yeah, I’m just gonna do a pulled pork on Ramelius Resources, which was a question for this week. I hasten to add that, number one, my numbers are about a week old because I haven’t had a chance to do another download, and it’s Monday morning your time, so we haven’t got Alex’s download for the weekend. But anyway. And number two Ramelius have launched a bid for another gold mining company called Breaker Resources. I did a quick survey before we jumped on the show, and I couldn’t really see the pro forma effect on Ramelius that the takeover would have if it went through. It’s probably out there but I haven’t been able to work out whether Ramelius is going to borrow money to execute the takeover or pay it in cash or issue shares or whatever. So, I’ll go through and talk about it but people are going to have to watch announcements to see, if they’re interested in buying it, they’re just going to have to watch announcements and see what the impact of the takeover will be. Or wait until the next six-monthly numbers come down and you have a clearer picture of what it looks like. I suspect if the takeover goes ahead, it will have happened by then.
And we should also point out that BRB is on our buy list.
Yeah, it’s the takeover-ee.
Yeah, and I’ve had a note in my spreadsheet not to buy it, because it’s one of the few stocks that — looking at the light portfolio — is one of the few stocks that’s on the buy list that has been in a buy state and not a Josephine, hits all of the metrics, but I have to keep reminding myself not to buy it because it’s sort of at the peak of where it’s going to be if this takeover goes through. Its usually not a good idea to buy something that’s been taken over, right?
Correct. Well, look, it’s not unless you have any sort of specialist knowledge, and I certainly don’t about the gold mining sector. What I do know is this particular takeover is being supported by the board and by the major investors. So, chances are that it’s going to be accepted and it’ll go through at around the current price. I can’t see anybody coming in and lobbing another bid. They could, it’s always possible, but less likely in this kind of situation with approval from the board and the major stakeholders. But also, the flip side is I can’t see Ramelius walking away from this either. So, the downside risk is pretty limited. So, the takeover experts in this sort of circumstance would be looking to make, you know, pennies out of this situation just to see if they can arbitrage what’s going on with the share market compared to the takeover price. And it can vary by cents every day depending on what news is coming out of both camps. But yeah, I agree with you. I wouldn’t be buying BRB at the moment, and probably can’t buy in the future because this takeover will probably go through at the current price. So, that’s it. That’s actually answered a question no one’s asked, but that’s actually an interesting thing if you are a BRB holder, is you’ve got to decide whether you want to sit on it in the hope that someone lobs a higher offer. Because if you do you’ve got to wait for the takeover to go through and then to get your check from Ramelius, which could be months and months and months away, as opposed to selling on market now — and I haven’t checked the price of BRB compared to Ramelius’ offer — but if it’s only pennies, the standard way I would operate is to sell on market and move on and take that profit somewhere else. Because otherwise it’s like having money in the bank, it’s just gonna sit there doing nothing for three or four months while the whole thing grinds through. Anyway, getting back to Ramelius, it’s a large gold miner based in Western Australia. It’s mainly around the Mount Magnet area. It has a number of mines, Mount Magnet being one of them, Mount Magnet goldmine. There are three others: Edna May, Marda and Vivien, they’re also in in WA. And the reason they’re bidding for Breaker Resources is Breaker controls a project called Lake Row, which is close to one of Ramelius’ gold mines called Rebecca, or the Rebecca project. I don’t know if it’s actually developed into a mine yet. And so, Ramelius is counting on synergies from being able to progress the Breaker Gold Mine, which is close to their own gold mine, and put them both together and one of them makes three for them. That’s one of the reasons why they’re paying a premium for Breaker. The other thing to note is that Ramelius is now big enough that it just recently was added to the ASX 20 list. So, it’s getting quite large now. I think it has over a billion dollars in market cap, and it did get a bump of about 5% when it went into the ASX 20 list. So, I guess that’s relevant to the conversation we had the last time we spoke about how indexes can change the share price of a company. So, that’s what happened to Ramelius. The other thing to note, I guess, just in general about gold and gold mines, is the gold price is going up again. And that’s best largely due, I think, to the forecasts of recession in the US and inflation being stubbornly high. It is dropping in Australia, although I’m not sure it’s dropping as much in the US as it is in Australia. And gold tends to do well in those periods. It’s called a safe haven or a store of value. So, if you think that assets are going down, because in real terms with inflation at as high as 9%, they’re worth less every year, gold tends to have the inverse quality: people buy gold expecting it to at least stay the same price and not be affected by inflation. Which potentially has the reverse effect, because if enough people do that, it pushes the price up for gold. And gold is still used commercially for making jewellery and a little bit in the tech sector and automotive, etc. And there’s also a lot of buying of gold by Reserve Banks, again, for their balance sheet and to be a storer of value. But there’s still probably about, oh, the numbers I’ve seen is 25 to 30% is speculative behaviour. So, that’s people looking to buy gold just to have a safe haven in an uncertain time, especially if a recession could be coming. So, the gold price is going up. I looked up the latest results for Ramelius, and their AISC, which is All In Sustainable Cost of producing an ounce of gold, is around $2,000: that’s Aussie. And the current gold price is around $3,000, just under $3000 — like $2950 Aussie. So, they’re making a good margin on what they’re digging out of the ground at the moment. If the gold price goes up, that sort of margin increase flows straight to their bottom line. Their costs will go up with inflation, but the gold price will probably go up higher than that, or potentially go up higher than that. I shouldn’t speculate on what the gold price will do. If history is any guide, then it probably will, and certainly lots of people think it will. So, gold companies are having a bit of a day in the sun at the moment. They had come down a reasonable amount over the last twelve months and are now, sort of, turning around. I do also want to say, though, that this particular stock, Ramelius, isn’t on our buy list, and one of the reasons why it’s not apart from its QAV score being too low is that it even though it’s turned up in the last month or so it’s still bellow it’s buy price. And so, I’m doing my analysis today at $1.155, which was the price on the 26th of March. The price before the market opened this morning, being Monday, was $1.27. So, I’m already late in terms of my analysis, and so the price is moving quite quickly. But as we’ll see through the numbers here, the QAV score is quite low, and at $1.15 it’ll be even lower at $1.27, and the buy price on this stock is $1.51 currently. So, I suspect even if we reach that buy price, and I think it probably will keep going up until it’s a three-point trendline buy, it almost certainly won’t have a QAV score worth investing in. So, I’m doing this because it was requested, but it’s not on our buy list. Okay, the numbers. So, ADT on this stock is large. It’s around $4 million ADT per day, so very large, would suit everyone listening to this podcast. The yield is low, it’s less than 1%, so we don’t score it for that. Interestingly enough, Stock Doctor’s financial health has it as “early warning”, and because in the past it’s been strong, it’s also a deteriorating trend. So, we give it a -1 on the checklist for that. I’m not sure what what’s going on there. The company actually made a negative profit last half, so just below breakeven, but it is forecast to make a lot of money this half, I guess, because of the rising gold price. But again, the question mark remains over that forecast as to what effect the takeover of Breaker Resources will have on its profit. So, for example, if it pays out the takeover amount in cash that’s going to obviously reduce its balance sheet, if not its profit if they’re using profits to help that payment process. So, there’s a few things moving around here with this company. The Pr/OpCaf on it at $1.15 is 5.15 times, so that’s good for us, however the price is rising, so that will lose that score potentially, I think, very soon. And I can’t score it on a PE because it didn’t make any profit last half, so it doesn’t score for PE. The share price is greater than IV1 and IV2, and net equity per share is 86 cents and book plus 30 is therefore $1.11, and the share price is above that, so it’s not going to score for those. Management has a small holding in the company, but there’s no owner-founder, so I can’t score for that. There is consistently increasing equity, which is good. All in all, the company scores only 14% for quality, so we’re not scoring it very much on those metrics. And currently, the QAV score is 0.03, so it’s well below our threshold of 0.1. And like I said before, if anyone was interested in buying the stock, and it’s certainly being bought, just because it’s not on our buy list doesn’t mean that it won’t go up. It’s certainly been one of those cases where a rising gold price is lifting all boats. Ramelius is in Western Australia, so there’s very little sovereign risk with this company. The only risk is that Jim Chalmers in the next budget decides to put an extra tax on mining companies. I don’t know how remote that is, but it’s a possibility. But it’s different to, say, investing in some of the stocks that are on the buy list like West Africa Resources, where, as one of our listeners pointed out a couple of weeks ago, you know, there’s a lot of sovereign risk over there, a lot of corruption in government places. I think where WAF is there’s been a couple of coups in the last twelve months as well. So, WAF is on our buy list because it’s much cheaper than a stock like RMS, but that doesn’t mean RMS can’t go up. But if you are thinking about buying it, then just be careful of what happens with the Breaker Resources takeover and try for your own sake to get some clarity around what RMS’s numbers will look like if that takeover goes ahead. Or at least I would wait until some more numbers come out in the August reporting period and see what they look like then.
Right. I did by RMS a few weeks ago, somebody asked why was it in our disclosure lists, and I think I screwed up, is the answer to that.
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