Transcript #450

QAV 450 Tran­scrip­tion

Cameron  00:11

Well we’re back with QAV. This is episode I think 450, 450. We’re record­ing this on the 14th of Decem­ber 2021. TK is down in Cape Schanck again. How are you Tony?

Tony  00:34

Yeah, good thank you. Real­ly, real­ly well. Enjoy­ing Cape Schanck.

Cameron  00:37

How’s the golf?

Tony  00:38

Good. Near per­fect weath­er down here, it’s love­ly. Had friends stay­ing with us and they just left. Rud­dy’s still here with me, though, we’re plan­ning again tomor­row.

Cameron  00:45

Love­ly. Well pass on my regards.

Tony  00:48

Christ­mas time is just incred­i­bly busy with catch ups and things at the moment. Yeah.

Cameron  00:52

Yeah. And you used to live down there, right? So, you’ve got a lot of friends down there I imag­ine that you want to see and…

Tony  00:58

Cor­rect.

Cameron  00:59

… Daugh­ters down there, and…

Tony  01:00

Yes.

Cameron  01:01

And with us also today on the show, very spe­cial guest com­ing to us from, I don’t know where, Perth, I think, is that right? Luke Gib­son? Luke The Gibon­a­tor Gib­son.

Luke  01:12

Yeah, that’s cor­rect.

Cameron  01:13

How are things in WA? You’re gonna open your bor­der up to the world in Feb­ru­ary, I hear, Luke.

Luke  01:19

Yeah, sup­pos­ed­ly Feb­ru­ary. Look­ing for­ward to it.

Cameron  01:23

We’ll be able to come over and do a QAV event. Now, Luke, how long have you been a QAV mem­ber?

Luke  01:29

Well, to be hon­est, I’ve lis­tened from the first episode. I’ve always lis­tened in batch­es. I had a long dri­ve, about 40 min­utes. But to become a pre­mi­um mem­ber, I start­ed that in Sep­tem­ber. I final­ly splashed into my pock­et.

Cameron  01:43

Oh, so only a few months, you’ve been a QAV club mem­ber. Right? Okay. And at what point did you have the idea of doing your own YouTube series? So, Luke, peo­ple prob­a­bly know, because we’ve talked about him, I think, on last week’s episode, Luke, a while back, cou­ple months ago, I think start­ed his own YouTube invest­ing show, which we’re going to talk about, let’s stop a bit. Let’s tell us about your­self first, like I told you, I’m a pro­fes­sion­al at this. I know what I’m doing. You’re in good hands. So, you live in WA, you just told us off air that you’re born in 1990, which is, I can’t even begin to get my head around peo­ple born in 1990. Tell us about your­self. What do you do when you’re not invest­ing, Luke?

Luke  02:23

Well, I’ve got two com­pa­nies on the go at the moment. So, I have a machin­ing and fab­ri­ca­tion work­shop, which takes up most of my time, a small crew, there’s about five of us. And oth­er than that, I have a tem­po­rary fenc­ing com­pa­ny, which I’m slow­ly wind­ing out, but I still do it a lit­tle bit. And oth­er than that, I’m read­ing and learn­ing about invest­ing and work­ing around the house, I guess.

Cameron  02:49

Is a tem­po­rary fenc­ing com­pa­ny a fenc­ing com­pa­ny that you don’t plan to run very long, or you’re just, it’s tem­po­rary, the fenc­ing itself is tem­po­rary. I have no idea I’m an idiot.

Luke  03:02

The fenc­ing itself is tem­po­rary.

Cameron  03:04

What’s the point of tem­po­rary fenc­ing? Like con­struc­tion sites?

Luke  03:09

Yeah. Con­struc­tion and…

Cameron  03:11

And events, stuff like that?

Luke  03:12

… Events. Yeah, yeah. So, it was like my, one of my main first com­pa­nies have prob­a­bly had it open for three to four years. And yes, it’s very hard work though.

Cameron  03:23

Real­ly? Because what, you have to load fences on and off trucks and set ’em up and a lot of run­ning around?

Luke  03:30

Yeah. All the blocks weigh about 25–30 kilos each, so car­ry­ing those around and slug­ging them around, it’s a bit hard yak­ka.

Cameron  03:37

Yeah, right. When peo­ple say to me “you’re work­ing hard” I go, “Dude, I sit in front of a com­put­er all day,” it’s peo­ple who do that kind of stuff that are, that are real­ly work­ing hard. And machin­ing and fab­ri­ca­tion again, I’m going to show my igno­rance here. I hear peo­ple use those words like it means some­thing. I have no idea what that does. Tell me, tell me what that’s all about.

Luke  03:59

Okay, look at it as in you get a steel bil­let.

Cameron  04:02

I don’t — nah, see, I’m lost. What’s a, what’s a steel bil­let, Luke?

Luke  04:07

Heavy met­al.

Cameron  04:08

Like Judas Priest? I mean, Judas Priest, Metal­li­ca. Is that what we’re talk­ing here? I know that.

Luke  04:14

Nah, more mate­r­i­al side. So, yeah, so, so we get raw bil­lets of steel and then we pret­ty much sculpt them using CNC machines into what­ev­er the cus­tomer requires.

Cameron  04:25

What’s a CNC machine?

Luke  04:26

I should know this. I think it’s Com­put­er Numer­ic Con­trol. So it’s, it’s like an — do you know what a lathe is?

Tony  04:30

Mm, to lathe. Yeah.

Cameron  04:31

Yeah, vague­ly.

Luke  04:31

Or a milling machine. So, we have com­put­erised ones of those. So, they’re, they’re auto­mat­ic, and they can work overnight and it’s quite fas­ci­nat­ing. I’ll send you some infor­ma­tion on them. Some on my chan­nel, actu­al­ly.

Tony  04:49

My broth­er in law does that, Luke, up in Tul­ly. He has a com­put­er lathe and he makes replace­ment blades for har­vesters in the main.

Luke  04:57

Beau­ti­ful. Yep.

Cameron  04:58

So, you just have, like, a dig­i­tal blue­print and you just put in the com­put­er and it just — does it use water? Because I have seen like one that uses high pres­sured water filled with nanopar­ti­cles, dia­mond par­ti­cles or some­thing to slice through met­al. Is it some­thing like that? How does it chop away the steel? Lasers?

Luke  05:17

That’s a water jet cut­ter. So, we have more of the ones where we use car­bide tool­ing. So we remove the chips with car­bide. But it is full of coolant to keep every­thing cool, and yeah, a video tells, tells a mil­lion words.

Cameron  05:32

That’s good. So, you’ve, you’ve got a cou­ple of busi­ness­es. When did you start your first busi­ness? As a young fel­la?

Luke  05:38

Yeah, I worked with the same com­pa­ny when I was 16. So, my moth­er told me, I could either get an appren­tice­ship or I could go back to school. So, I had the choice of the two. I chose appren­tice­ship at 16. I was with the same com­pa­ny for I think it was like four­teen-fif­teen years. But, dur­ing that, maybe my eighth, ninth year in, I’ve always been in lead­er­ship roles as well post appren­tice­ship. But um, I start­ed a vend­ing machine busi­ness, was my first one. So, I used to go out, site a machine, put the chips in it, the Coke in it, and then just go in every week, and then just take the mon­ey and just repeat. Was pret­ty fun. But I sold that when I moved over to Perth. And then I’ve had a handy­man busi­ness over here, which I wound down and turned into the tem­po­rary fenc­ing busi­ness, and then start­ed the machine shop. So, yeah.

Cameron  06:27

Where we from orig­i­nal­ly?

Luke  06:28

So, New­cas­tle, New South Wales, by Dave.

Cameron  06:32

Shout out to Dave from Newy, who’s the, I think sent us some ques­tions today, too. Don’t know, maybe it’s for next week. Good stuff. All right. So, that’s a lit­tle bit about you. And tell us about your invest­ing back­ground pre QAV, Luke.

Luke  06:50

Yep. So, as I start­ed jump­ing on every­thing, like the news, the emo­tions, like all that kind of stuff that comes with invest­ing real­ly got me at the start, but I pret­ty much start­ed invest­ing in 2018, towards the end of it. And the rea­son behind that was because the banks tight­ened cred­it pol­i­cy and I was­n’t allowed to invest in the hous­ing mar­ket any­more. So, I want­ed some­where else where I could start putting my sav­ings. So, I start­ed read­ing all the books, I just got obsessed, I lis­tened to all the pod­cast, shout out to Phil Mus­cate­lo as well, I was lis­ten­ing to all his ones, episode after episode. And yeah, I bought my first shares in Novem­ber 2018, which was my, my favourite, which was FMJ at $4.21 each.

Cameron  07:36

Woah!

Luke  07:37

Yeah, that was, that was, that was…

Cameron  07:38

I hope you rode that all the way.

Luke  07:40

I did. But then I bought a cou­ple of oth­ers, like ANZ and, and then I just kind of noticed that I was emo­tion­al with invest­ing. So, I took a more pas­sive approach as I was learn­ing. So, I’m not sure if you’re aware of the Comm­Sec Pock­et app with the sev­en ETFs that it comes with. So, I start­ed every month putting 10% of my income towards that. I’ve built up a port­fo­lio of I think about $10,000 in those and just watched it. And then I tried to start active invest­ing. And the moment that the light bulb went off was when I was, when I was jump­ing into these, these growth stocks, like when you spoke about, I think TK, with A2 Milk, how every­one jumped on the band­wag­on? Well, I was unfor­tu­nate­ly one of those. And I watched it come down and I think I end­ed up los­ing about 42% in it in a $10,000 stake. And the sec­ond light bulb moment was when FMG was in dis­cus­sion and the three-point trend line sell for the iron ore. I kept hold­ing that on for the div­i­dend, I thought it was crazy to sell before and then I just watched that just plum­met. And I was like, I’m QAV from now. That’s what got me.

Tony  08:55

Good. Always the uni­ver­si­ty edu­ca­tion you have to have at the start, isn’t it, the mis­takes you make?

Luke  09:00

Yeah.

Tony  09:01

Before you get wise. Yeah, we’re all, we’re all think­ing it. We all have our own ver­sions of those sto­ries, I think. Well, I do any­way. Yeah. 100%. Yeah. So, tell us about your pod­cast, you’ve got a plan to turn your sav­ings into a mil­lion dol­lars. What’s the sto­ry there?

Luke  09:20

Yeah, so, ini­tial­ly when I start­ed YouTube, it was more so for to keep in touch with the East­ern states with my friends, fam­i­ly, etc., over there, and try and show videos of the hus­tles of life that I do do with my com­pa­nies ‘n that. But I found that was too hard. So, to kind of record that whilst also doing all the work and then the edit­ing like, hands off to you Cam, there’s a lot of work in it. But then I thought, “well, I’m real­ly pas­sion­ate about this invest­ing and I’m real­ly pas­sion­ate about the QAV method­ol­o­gy, and why not record­ed if I’m already doing it any­way.” And yeah, that’s kind of where it branched out. But the goal is to take my ini­tial invest­ment, which was 50k, which was sell­ing off all those oth­er poor invest­ments and then tak­ing a full stake. And to grow that into a mil­lion dol­lars over the next ten years, it’ll kind of fund towards retire­ment as well, I guess in one sense.

Tony  10:16

You’re too young to retire.

Cameron  10:20

I know a lot of QAV club mem­bers have told me that they, they’re sort of are a lit­tle bit shy about talk­ing about invest­ing and what they’ve learned on the show with friends and fam­i­ly, because it’s kind of a, kind of a weird thing in Aus­tralian cul­ture to talk about invest­ing. But I guess on the flip side of that is, there’s all of these Fin­Tech peo­ple now, includ­ing the guy that just got slapped by ASIC, I saw in the Finan­cial Review this morn­ing, some guy is being inves­ti­gat­ed by ASIC for giv­ing stock tips with­out an AFSL. That obvi­ous­ly does­n’t both­er you, you’re not scared of putting your jour­ney out there?

Luke  10:58

I was a lit­tle bit hes­i­tant at the start, and I start­ed to research what you can and you can’t get away with. So, I put my dis­claimer on at the front and I’m hop­ing that’s enough, I prob­a­bly should look into it more. But it’s not real­ly more of giv­ing stock tips that’s kind of like to share my jour­ney, and kind of also, like real­ly teach peo­ple it’s not as scary as, as the pro­fes­sion­als and all that kind of make out that it is. That if an aver­age Joe like me can do it, then those guys can, too, as well. So.

Cameron  11:33

But that’s what I meant, like a lot of peo­ple are just like, lit­tle bit, I don’t know, shy about talk­ing about invest­ing. Because it may not go well, there’ll be mis­takes. And I know like I’m a lot old­er than you, I’ve made more mis­takes then you’ll prob­a­bly ever make in your life and ten times as many. So, I’m well beyond car­ing what peo­ple think about me mak­ing mis­takes, and I also know that Tony is gonna guide me in the right direc­tion. So, that’s cool, I can be the idiot. But I think it’s just great that you’re com­fort­able putting your jour­ney out there. Obvi­ous­ly, you’re not wor­ried about, you know, how peo­ple view it, if it goes up, it goes down — I saw one of your ones recent­ly where I think your port­fo­lio had gone back­wards a lit­tle bit, like all of ours have in the last month or two. And you were just laugh­ing it off “eh, it’s part of the jour­ney, you know, does­n’t mat­ter. It’s long term.” Which was great.

Luke  12:24

And that’s, that’s exact­ly what’s so good about this, like, all jokes aside, I was ner­vous about putting a mon­e­tary val­ue live for every­body to watch. And in the back of my mind, I was like this could either work, or I could fail and look like a fool. But the thing about it, if you’re doing it pub­lic, you kind of, you have to be true to the method­ol­o­gy because peo­ple will pull you up like peo­ple that under­stand it and they like, if I start going out­side of it, some­one could bring me back in. Like I get asked ques­tions all the time about the method­ol­o­gy and it makes me have to go back and research and then make me under­stand a bit more. And then, because well, what’s the say­ing? To learn some­thing to per­fec­tion, go and teach it? That’s not the say­ing, I butchered that. But I hope you know it.

Tony  13:15

Def­i­nite­ly, yeah.

Cameron  13:16

Yeah. Well, if you real­ly want to under­stand some­thing, teach it. Yeah. And I know that even Tony’s been through that jour­ney while we’ve been doing the pod­cast, right Tony?

Tony  13:24

Yeah, no, cor­rect. So, there’s that, that part of it: how do you explain it to peo­ple? Because, after twen­ty-thir­ty years of doing it myself, with­out talk­ing to any­one, it’s all sec­ond nature. Right? But you’ve got to actu­al­ly then explain it in a way that makes sense to peo­ple who haven’t heard about it before. So, you have to start from scratch and have every­thing doc­u­ment­ed. And, but you’re right, Luke, it’s the process of teach­ing makes you under­stand it bet­ter, because a lot of times, I’ll just whiz through it quite quick­ly. I mean, I’m just, that’s my per­son­al­i­ty. I’m an 80/20 guy; I’d rather get a lot of stuff done in a day and have 80% of it go right rather than spend all day doing one thing and mak­ing sure it’s per­fect. So, hav­ing to stop and talk about it and doc­u­ment it and all the rest has made the sys­tem much more robust than what it was when I was using it, when I was just whizzing through based on my own expe­ri­ence with­out hav­ing to wor­ry about the fin­er points of it.

Cameron  14:20

So Luke, the title of your YouTube if peo­ple want to go find it is the Gib­son Hus­tle. Is that what they search for on YouTube?

Luke  14:29

Yes, cor­rect. Gib­son Hus­tle.

Cameron  14:32

And you’re doing episodes how often at the moment?

Luke  14:36

So, I’m doing one episode a week at the moment as it grows, like I kind of set my own lit­tle mile­stones. If I reach a hun­dred sub­scribers, I’ll try and put a lit­tle bit more effort into it. I might start try­ing to show my, my beard and my mug again. And then if it keeps grow­ing then I’ll, I’ll try and do two videos a week and yeah, just hope­ful­ly just grow it over time.

Cameron  14:58

That’s great. And how is your port­fo­lio going this week?

Luke  15:02

This week? I’m going to pre­tend that I haven’t looked but it’s been two very nice day so far.

Cameron  15:10

Yeah, the mar­ket’s been a lit­tle bit buoy­ant, more buoy­ant this week. Any­way.

Tony  15:14

So, a cou­ple of ques­tions about your port­fo­lio, Luke, and your approach.

Luke  15:17

Yep.

Tony  15:18

Why five stocks and not more than five stocks in the port­fo­lio?

Luke  15:22

So, I set a lit­tle trad­ing plan to kind of enter my port­fo­lio in. So, the goal is to get to twen­ty stocks. I was try­ing to be a bit, a bit tight towards the Comm­Sec’s bro­ker­age. So, it’s like $19.95, up to $10,000 invest­ment. So, to keep myself true, I was try­ing to do a 10,000–10,000–10,000 all the way until I get to 200,000. And every time I do reach 10,000, from own­er con­tri­bu­tions, and cap­i­tal gains from when I sell, then I put anoth­er stock in there. And it was kind of, kind of to, to kind of make it small­er and grow it out. So, I could real­ly hone in on the process and real­ly under­stand it as well.

Tony  16:06

And that was my next ques­tion. So, if you, you’re real­ly try­ing to get from a port­fo­lio of $200,000 to a mil­lion rather than $50,000 to a mil­lion, because doing that in ten years would be a real­ly high annu­al return, would­n’t it?

Luke  16:19

Right, it’s kind of to grow, it is to grow from $50,000 to a mil­lion, but each kind of month that it should com­pound on itself every time I do the own­er con­tri­bu­tions, and then intro­duce the extra stocks. And yeah, I did­n’t real­ly have a few hun­dred thou­sand of cap­i­tal to start off with the twen­ty stocks.

Tony  16:40

Okay. One last ques­tion, and that is, I noticed I was going through your video casts prepar­ing for this, and one of the episodes I think you had Medusa min­ing, MML, and it had dropped by more than 10% but you did­n’t sell it. So, what was the rea­son­ing behind that?

Luke  16:58

I was a naughty boy. But that’s, that’s exact­ly what I was say­ing. Like, is, you have to be so true when you’re doing it live so, peo­ple pick you up on things that you think you’re doing it the prop­er way and then as soon as some­one picks you up, you’re like, “I need to be more true to the thing” because it keeps you, it keeps you hon­est. Keeps you hon­est.

Cameron  17:28

Well, yeah, I think you have to do penance, Luke, you have to say five Hail Tony’s before you go to bed tonight.

Luke  17:35

Five Hail Tony’s.

Cameron  17:37

Luke, fan­tas­tic work. I real­ly do like your, your style, no bull­shit, sort of tradie — what’d I call it last time — “tradie with a Ute” approach to it.

Luke  17:49

Yeah.

Cameron  17:51

It’s great. I love it. And I think there’s, you know, there’s a whole mar­ket of guys that, and girls, that you’ll be able to reach with that and get them on the right path and send them to QAV. Good stuff, Luke, good luck with it. And you’ll have to keep com­ing back on and giv­ing us updates.

Luke  18:10

Yeah, for sure. But yeah, thank you to you guys. You’ve real­ly, it’s so good that you’re, you’re teach­ing every­body on a broad­er scale that every­one can do it them­selves and every­one could do it with their own Super and you don’t have to rely on the big man to cash his own checks. And yeah, kudos to you guys.

Cameron  18:28

Yeah, thanks. Well to Tony. All right. Cheers, mate. That’s the Gib­son Hus­tle on YouTube. Look it up, folks.

Luke  18:36

Awe­some. Thank you very much, guys.

Cameron  18:39

All right. Well, we’re back. Me and Tony, Luke’s gone. That was great, love­ly chap, and we wish him all the best with his YouTube show. All right. Well, it’s been a big week, Tony, last week, obvi­ous­ly, you and I pre­re­cord­ed a bit of 2021 wrap up, which seems to have been very well appre­ci­at­ed by every­one. They seem to have enjoyed that episode. But there’s been a lot of stuff going on in the last week. So, we got a lot to cov­er. I guess I’ll start with we sold MML. We did a rule 1 sell of MML out of our QAV port­fo­lio. You men­tioned the MML drop when we were chat­ting with Luke, and we replaced it with GAP. G‑A-P. I think that was on the sev­enth of Decem­ber. Any­thing to say about that? Or, that’s just, that’s how we do it, rule 1 sells.

Tony  19:30

Yep. That’s the way it goes. Yeah, I think I don’t know when you bought GAP because I’ve been trav­el­ling, but I did get a report from Navexa this week say­ing that GAP was the best per­form­ing stock for the week.

Cameron  19:41

There you go, sev­enth of Decem­ber accord­ing to my notes is when I bought it.

Tony  19:45

Okay, so prob­a­bly did­n’t get all that increase then.

Cameron  19:47

Well, if they’re say­ing we did then they would be mark­ing it from when we bought it, right?

Tony  19:52

It’s up 11.94%, yeah. Should be.

Cameron  19:55

Yeah, that’s not bad for a week. Good on you, GAP.

Tony  19:58

Yeah, good thing we swapped out.

Cameron  20:00

Yeah, exact­ly.

Tony  20:01

Yes, I’d owned GAP, I owned GAP many years ago because it’s only a small cap stock but it’s Gale Pacif­ic which make shade cloths and the like.

Cameron  20:09

Right? Well, it’s been a hot sum­mer. I guess its good time to be in the shade cloth busi­ness.

Tony  20:14

It’s been a wet sum­mer.

Cameron  20:15

Yeah, hot and wet.

Tony  20:16

La Nina.

Cameron  20:17

Yes.

Tony  20:20

Sounds like a Chevy, Chevy Chase film, a Hot Wet Life.

Cameron  20:24

I keep think­ing of Robin Williams “hot and wet!” I do that every time we say hot and wet. So, I won’t do it again. Cop­per sell. Cop­per breached, so for any­one hold­ing SFR, C6C, AIS, they all became sells under the com­mod­i­ty sell at some point last week. Hope every­body was pay­ing atten­tion to that.

Tony  20:47

Yeah, like I don’t, it has a sell. It’s, the cop­per price seems to be trend­ing side­ways. So, if you have missed it, just keep check­ing it each day. It’s going up and down. Yeah, it’s a sell at the moment.

Cameron  20:59

Yeah. And on the flip side, iron ore became a buy again last week.

Tony  21:05

It did. Yeah. I mean, I think peo­ple were get­ting into iron ore stocks again ear­li­er than we, we have, but it’s def­i­nite­ly got… the graph now has the high­est peak and then the sec­ond peak, which means we can draw our buy line, and it’s above the buy line, for sure.

Cameron  21:21

The con­fus­ing thing for me on that, I think it was Lee who first asked the ques­tion on Face­book last week, “is iron ore a buy again” — pay­ing atten­tion, Lee — and I pulled up the last graph you and I did and I saw the fudged sell line and it was well below the fudged sell line. But you’ve ditched that now, you’re look­ing at the ridgy-didge sell line which is down like at $20, and it’s obvi­ous­ly well above that. Tell us why we’re ditch­ing the fudge sell line now and look­ing at the real sell line again.

Tony  21:53

Well, I think the fudged sell line was there for the sell, because the iron ore price has that very sort of tends to have a very short sharp cycle, not five years, but prob­a­bly two. And to be hon­est, I can’t recall anoth­er sit­u­a­tion like this because most times com­mod­i­ty stocks you can use the five-year graph for. But I did ditch it because it is above its five year sell price and it’s now back into a buy sit­u­a­tion. So, I think it’s worth­while putting them back on the buy list. But yeah, I can’t point to oth­er exam­ples to say this is the way to go, but that’s my log­ic. It’s that it was a good fudge for the sell, and now we’re going to just ignore it for the buy.

Cameron  22:29

Yeah, I know GRR, which is one of our stocks of the week, has already spiked up mas­sive­ly since it sort of reached its bot­tom. It’s not far from where it was at its peak. I think it’s about back to where it was when we sold it. That was our num­ber one stock as I think you said last week, last year. But I had one of our new lis­ten­ers call me actu­al­ly this morn­ing and he said “I’ve been look­ing at this iron ore line, I get the, I get the buy line, I get the sell line. I can’t work out the sci­ence behind the fudge line.” And I said “uh, don’t even try. There’s no sci­ence. It’s just Tony.” I said “it’s just Tony’s gut feel­ing after thir­ty years of how to do this stuff. There’s no sci­ence behind it. It’s just, It’s Tony sci­ence.” It’s like…

Tony  23:16

Yeah, Tony sci­ence. That’s a good term, isn’t it?

Cameron  23:18

Uri Geller, it’s Uri Geller bend­ing spoons sci­ence.

Tony  23:23

Hey, don’t laugh, Uri Geller owns an island in the Bahamas.

Cameron  23:30

Any­one under the age of fifty prob­a­bly has no idea who Uri Geller is, but look him up. Look up some Uri Geller YouTubes from the 80s.

Tony  23:39

And look up James Ran­di who debunked him.

Cameron  23:41

Yeah, just passed away a year or two ago.

Tony  23:45

Yeah, he did. There is some sci­ence behind the fudge for iron ore, and as I’ve said, it’s got to do with the iron ore cycle. So, I was look­ing at — because a lot of these com­mod­i­ty stocks, you can apply the five-year month­ly trend to; gold, for exam­ple, cop­per, all those, they have longish cycles. But iron ore in par­tic­u­lar tends to move up and down very, very quick­ly. And so, I did­n’t want to, I fudged it using a two year graph. I did­n’t want to get caught out if it dropped sud­den­ly, which it did.

Cameron  24:15

Right. But I guess by sci­ence there’s noth­ing in the Bible that says “here’s where you should fudge and the time­frame you should use.” It’s just you know, that these are the sorts of things that we just rely on your ancient wis­dom from, that you learned from monks in Tibet to teach us these things. When you went up to the cave and did the med­i­ta­tion for six years and all that stuff.

Tony  24:39

Yeah, I was­n’t allowed to leave until I could steal the three peb­bles from the old guys hand.

Cameron  24:45

Were they iron ore pel­lets? Is that where they were? Speak­ing of iron ore pel­lets, seri­ous ques­tion for you: BHP. When I was doing my buy list yes­ter­day, it’s obvi­ous­ly, they do a lot of things but in a big way, iron ore and cop­per. Now we’ve got iron ore’s a buy, cop­per’s a sell. Is it a com­mod­i­ty sell or not, BHP, right now?

Tony  25:10

Actu­al­ly, there’s a bit of cop­per in there, isn’t there? So, rev­enue by divi­sion for BHP: $45.86 bil­lion is in iron ore, and then there’s $20.9 bil­lion in cop­per. So, yeah, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. Dun­no, Cam, I’d prob­a­bly be keep­ing it on the side­lines at the moment.

Cameron  25:29

Oh, well, I had it in the buy list. So that’s…

Tony  25:33

I did too, until you’ve asked the ques­tion. If it was like some of the oth­er things that BHP do, they’ve got $6 bil­lion of rev­enue on coal, and $5 bil­lion in petro­le­um. If cop­per was down around that sort of 5–10% of their rev­enue I would­n’t wor­ry about it. But it’s up there.

Cameron  25:50

It’s a big chunk, mm.

Tony  25:51

Total rev­enue. Yeah, it’s a big chunk. So, I think we should just call it and we should bench it for the moment.

Cameron  25:56

Bench BHP. Okay.

Tony  25:58

Yeah.

Cameron  25:59

All right. Well, what else? Trent on Face­book. Now, last week, when we were hav­ing a chat you were talk­ing about this com­pa­ny Nufarm and you were talk­ing about the chem­i­cals. And you want­ed to see if any­one out there knew what com­modi­ties we should be look­ing at. Trent, who knows a thing or two says, “this arti­cle gives some info in rela­tion to the Nufarm chat, and what’s in the chem­i­cals. The graph’s in the arti­cle tell you the active chem­i­cal and the types of prod­ucts. The arti­cle itself gives some insight to the under­ly­ing commodity/supply chain.” And it was talk­ing about glyphosate and glupho­se­n­ate, did you have a chance to have a look at that?

Tony  26:44

I did, and they were the, par­tic­u­lar­ly glyphosate was the chem­i­cal I was think­ing of, and I could­n’t find any graphs on it. But those, those links were help­ful. So, I don’t think there was a five-year month­ly graph, but you can pret­ty much see from the graphs that were pro­vid­ed that it’s gen­er­al­ly in an uptrend at the moment. It’s a buy.

Cameron  27:03

Thanks for that, Trent. Good work. I was out at lunch with Lee the oth­er day, we were hav­ing a bit of a chat, and we were talk­ing about the CEO of Mag­el­lan sud­den­ly resign­ing — Mag­el­lan Finan­cial Group — last week. And Lee was telling me he holds some Mag­el­lan and in the mid­dle of lunch his phone dings and he looks down and goes, “oh, Hamish Dou­glas is get­ting a divorce.” Appar­ent­ly, he’s on Hamish Dou­glass’s, you know pri­vate dis­tri­b­u­tion list and he got the text update. So, I want­ed to ask you, our con­do­lences to Hamish Dou­glas and his wife Alexan­dra and the fam­i­ly, but seri­ous ques­tion: bad news sell when Hamish Dou­glas — I know we don’t own Mag­el­lan. I don’t do you own Mag­el­lan?

Tony  27:55

No, not at all.

Cameron  27:57

Okay. But if the CEO sud­den­ly resigns, and the chair­man announces that he’s get­ting — now I don’t know if these two things are con­nect­ed. I’m not sug­gest­ing for the record, any way shape or form that these things are at all con­nect­ed. I’m not sug­gest­ing that, don’t say that I am. Don’t, I’m not even hint­ing at it, seri­ous­ly. Or am I? No, I’m not. Is this a bad news sell, Tony, if you were hold­ing Mag­el­lan?

Tony  28:23

Yes, par­tic­u­lar­ly with the CEO resign­ing unex­pect­ed­ly and he’d been there for a long time. Usu­al­ly you’d want to see the CEO give you plen­ty of notice that they were leav­ing, and then a han­dover process put in place and prop­er­ly enact­ed by the board. But this has all been very sud­den, so, I think it is a bad news sell. There, there was a, I’m just try­ing to think who it was, maybe Jack Bogle, there was a US investor who, a very famous one recent­ly who said that when­ev­er a fund man­ag­er got divorced, it was time to short the stock. So, there’s, there’s also that I guess, but the only oth­er case I can think of is Kean Nel­son who ran plat­inum and he got divorced and the share price was tum­bling, but I think it was going down before that. And the same with Mag­el­lan, it’s been going down for a while. So, per­haps, per­haps you need to know the CEO is hav­ing, or the chair­man in this case is hav­ing dif­fi­cul­ties with his mar­riage when the share price starts going down and make a call. But def­i­nite­ly the CEO resign­ing unex­pect­ed­ly was a bad thing to hap­pen.

Cameron  29:20

Yeah. All right. Let me ask you about the DSK chart. Now, this is Dusk Group. We’ve talked about this chart half a dozen times in the last cou­ple of years. They — well not cou­ple of years — since they float­ed which was late 2020, so about a year ago. The Bret­te­la­tor crapped out on this, this week, it could­n’t find a sell line, and I emailed Mr. Bret­te­la­tor him­self and he said, “yeah, it’s because there’s no sell line. You just can’t draw a sell line with this. There’s not enough troughs.” So, I want­ed to ask you about this. I can’t remem­ber if you passed this on your buy list or not this week, can you?

Tony  30:01

I put it back on my buy list, it was off for a while, and pure­ly based on the fact that we’ve got an H1 and an H2. So, the Bret­te­la­tor’s draw­ing those as a red line, but I’m draw­ing them as a yel­low. So, my H1 is May 2021 and H2 is Octo­ber 2021 and its above the buy line. In terms of the sell line, you can’t — there’s not two troughs, but I’ve been using, well you can if you want to, you don’t need to I don’t think in this case, but you can if you want to use, I was using Jan­u­ary 2021 as L1 and then Novem­ber 2021 as L2, just on the basis that that was a point. The L1 in Jan­u­ary 2021 is a point it’s not a trough, but it’s devi­at­ing below what the trend line has been before that.

Cameron  30:56

Then what are you using for L2?

Tony  30:58

L2 I’m using Novem­ber 2021.

Cameron  31:01

Yeah, right. The recent one. Okay.

Tony  31:04

Yeah. Well, I would­n’t quib­ble about, I tend to see what Brett say­ing and agree with him. There’s there is no L1 as such, I was using a point, but even if, even if I can’t find the L1 or L2 sell line, then I think it’s fine to still use the H1-H2 buy line and call it in.

Cameron  31:19

Yeah. Like I passed it as well, this week when I looked at it, and it was more of a gut feel­ing thing. I mean, I think I need a sell line some­where and it’s, it was pick­ing up and I think I was look­ing at August 21 as L1 even though it’s not the low­est point, but it was slow­er than… so you’ve got real­ly in terms of real troughs, you’ve got March 21, you’ve got August 21, and you’ve got Novem­ber 21. But, and it, the price is cur­rent­ly above, you know, all three of those. So, yeah, it’s a tricky one.

Tony  31:59

Yeah, so because the low­est trough is actu­al­ly Novem­ber 2021, so, you can’t draw a sell line.

Cameron  32:05

And if you do start from there, and then you can draw it up through its cur­rent price, and you get that straight line thing, like we had, you know, com­ing out of the COVID cough that, which isn’t real­ly that help­ful, either, but, okay, thanks for explain­ing that. Oh, get­ting back to com­modi­ties. I should have added this ear­li­er. Plat­inum is a sell again. Yeah, we had ZIM back on our buy list for a few weeks, and then it fell off again.

Tony  32:30

Yes, I agree. I took it off, too, this week.

Cameron  32:33

Mm. So, it’d be nice to have some sort of an alert sys­tem for com­modi­ties real­ly, would­n’t it?

Tony  32:40

It would, yeah, Stock Doc­tor can, we can look at the graphs, but we can’t raise alerts, unfor­tu­nate­ly. So if some­one out there out there is using a dif­fer­ent ser­vice and knows how to do it, it’d be great to know.

Cameron  32:50

Yeah, I think that’s some­thing Mr Bret­te­la­tor lat­er could do, real­ly. He’s smart. Some­one — he’s done his bit for QAV. There’s got to be some­body out there. One of our sub­scribers who’s smart enough to ride a com­mod­i­ty alert sys­tem for us. Get on that smart peo­ple. Would you mind? That’d be great. Thanks.

Tony  33:11

Hey, I saw, I saw Mr Bret­te­la­tor in a pho­to­graph of all the Mel­bourne crew get­ting togeth­er at a brew­ery and I thought “gee”, yeah, I was very jeal­ous.

Cameron  33:20

Well, bit of luck, assum­ing the end of the world does­n’t hap­pen in the next few weeks, we should do an event in Mel­bourne. Mid to late Jan­u­ary, I think we should stick with that plan. I’m long over­due for a trip to Mel­bourne. My last thing before we get into your things and stock of the week. AJL, want­ed to ask you whether or not this qual­i­fies as a qual­i­fied audit. AJL I think are back on the buy list this week, they peeked their head. I don’t think you had them on yours and I don’t think Alex did either, but I want­ed cap­tain’s call — is that what Tony Abbott used to call it? Cap­tain’s call on it, even though I’m not a cap­tain of any­thing, but I ran it through the three PTL cal­cu­la­tor and it was about two cents above it’s sell line. So, I gave it the nod, but I did go look­ing for this and I was­n’t sure if this qual­i­fied or not.

Tony  34:14

Yes, I’ve had it as a qual­i­fied audit for a long time and that was thanks to James, our, our celebri­ty chef slash audi­tor who said that yes, it was a qual­i­fied audit. We checked with him when the report came out.

Cameron  34:27

Yeah, he specif­i­cal­ly said AJL was

Tony  34:29

Yes. In fact, I think he called it out on the Face­book group after the results came out.

Cameron  34:34

Ah, dang it. Have it in mind, I’m stu­pid. Because I read through their note 2C mate­r­i­al uncer­tain­ty relat­ing to going con­cern, “we draw atten­tion to note 2C in the finan­cial report.” I read through it and can’t remem­ber the details now but it did­n’t… then they go on to say at the end of this “our opin­ion is not mod­i­fied in respect to this mat­ter.” And I still got con­fused by that, and I know we talked to James over this and I went up and looked at the word­ing because it’s in the Bible now what James actu­al­ly said, I got the tran­script and I throw it in there. So, if their opin­ion is not mod­i­fied, is that a good thing? Or a bad thing?

Tony  35:13

I’m not sure, and you’d have to ask James, he’s the expert, but when­ev­er I see mate­r­i­al uncer­tain­ty about going con­cern, I don’t have to go any fur­ther.

Cameron  35:21

That’s it?

Tony  35:21

Wor­ry about whether the audit’s been qual­i­fied. Yeah, if some­one’s, if an inde­pen­dent per­son is even ask­ing the ques­tion, that’s a red flag for me.

Cameron  35:29

Right. Okay. I’ll take that out of the buy list along with BHP, thanks for clar­i­fy­ing that. Okay, what do you, what do you got on your talky list this week, Tony?

Tony  35:41

My talky list. What have I got, I’ve got, just want­ed to do some updates on the buy list that I saw when I was putting mine togeth­er. So, I’ve got AX1 com­ing off the buy list, the shoe com­pa­ny. I’ve got GMA, the mort­gage insur­ance com­pa­ny going on to the buy list and that’s got a QAV score of 0.31, and a large annu­al dai­ly trade, 1.8 mil­lion, so that might be of inter­est to peo­ple to have a look at. I’ve got CTP, Cen­tral Petro­le­um com­ing off. SWK com­ing off. ALK com­ing off, I put Dusk on as we just dis­cussed, I’ve got Cho­rus com­ing back on, CNU, was just above it’s buy price, and I’ve got Kath­man­du, KMD, com­ing off. So, peo­ple might want to just check those out if they’re of inter­est to them.

Cameron  36:34

Before you go on, I was, I was just gonna say you men­tioned SWK. I’m just bring­ing up their chart. This is the one I’m think­ing of — it is — I had look at this chart when I was doing my buy list. I hope some of our sub­scribers got into SWK. It’s had a cork­er run! At 30th of April, it was down at 14 cents. It’s cur­rent­ly trad­ing at 36.5 cents, was as high as 38 cents at the end of last month. It’s up to near­ly three times, two and a half-three times since April. Swick Min­ing Ser­vices. SWK. Well, I think it’s too expen­sive, now its price has gone up. It’s prob­a­bly not get­ting a good score.

Tony  37:20

Yeah, but we don’t sell for that rea­son.

Cameron  37:22

You just said it came off the buy list. You did­n’t say it was a sell.

Tony  37:25

Oh, sor­ry, that’s the rea­son. Yes. My mis­take. You’re right. It’s kind of like just dropped off the buy list because it’s risen up in val­ue so much, yes. Sor­ry.

Tony  37:33

Yeah. Yeah, had a big spike.

Tony  37:35

I’ve just, I’ve just made a note here say­ing SWK off. I thought it meant it’s breached its three-point trend line, but no, it has­n’t. You’re right. Yep.

Cameron  37:43

Yeah. I mean, I’ve nev­er real­ly paid any atten­tion to it before. I think it’s always been fair­ly low on the buy list, it’s nev­er real­ly got my atten­tion, but it’s had a great lit­tle run. So, if any­one out there bought it, well done.

Tony  37:55

Yeah. Yeah, good, hap­py days. What else did I have? I owned some stock of AMO, Ambertech, which was allo­cat­ed to me by my stock bro­ker. But I’ve had to rule 1sell that recent­ly, so. It was going up nice­ly and then they made an announce­ment they were tak­ing over a toy import­ing com­pa­ny of all things, and the share price dropped through the floor. So, I’ve had to sell that one so I’ll just make that as a dec­la­ra­tion. Anoth­er one I want peo­ple to be aware of is the nat­ur­al gas com­mod­i­ty trend line, three-point trend line. So, a cou­ple of our stocks like San­tos on the buy list, even though it’s an oil com­pa­ny, most of its income is com­ing from nat­ur­al gas, and that’s get­ting pret­ty close to a sell. Has­n’t quite crossed yet, but I’ll just call that out for peo­ple who are hold­ing gas stocks to watch. Beach Ener­gy would be anoth­er one that comes to mind. And I’m using NG# in Stock Doc­tor, Nat­ur­al Gas Futures Cur­rent. It’s still a fair way off its sell line, so the sell price for me is around $2.40, maybe $2.50, and the price is cur­rent­ly $3.80. But, you know, look­ing at it again, it’s one of these, it’s a poten­tial fudge because it’s, it’s got a sort of, hit its low price in March 2020 and it’s high price in Octo­ber 2021. And it’s dropped from 566 for nat­ur­al gas down to 379 in the last two months, so it’s drop­ping quick­ly. So, it’s one to watch, and we may have to make a fudge call.

Cameron  39:31

And if you did fudge it you’d prob­a­bly do L1 at March 21 and L2 at May 21, in which case it would have crossed at the end of last month.

Tony  39:43

No, I’d prob­a­bly, I’d prob­a­bly use some­thing like July 20 al L1, so com­ing out of the trough.

Cameron  39:50

Oh okay.

Tony  39:51

And then L2 at March.

Cameron  39:53

Right.

Tony  39:53

And so, the, the buy price, sor­ry the sell price is going to be sort of 330 I guess, just look­ing at it, just eye­balling it on the graph, and a cur­rent price is 380. So, yeah, just want­ed to make that obser­va­tion to peo­ple to keep an eye on it.

Cameron  40:09

Okay. Speak­ing of STO, I think their deal went through. They’re now dual list­ed, is it in PNG or where’s their sec­ond thing, yeah, with Oil Search?

Tony  40:21

Yes. So, Oil Search and San­tos have merged and San­tos, sor­ry, Oil Search had a list­ing in PNG. Cor­rect.

Cameron  40:28

Has that been a good thing for STO this week or a bad thing? I haven’t noticed. I think I think I do have STO shares.

Tony  40:36

I think it will be a good thing in the long term, yeah.

Cameron  40:38

Yeah. It spiked up a lit­tle bit this week, but noth­ing big hap­pen­ing with it.

Tony  40:43

No, and the oil price is, is still, it’s bounc­ing around but it’s been com­ing down of late, after a big run. And cer­tain­ly, the gas price as I said has come off too. That’s prob­a­bly hav­ing a big­ger impact on San­tos than the Oil Search merg­er I would have thought.

Cameron  40:59

Well, I hold STO and BPT, Beach, so I’m gonna have to, you know, that per­son that’s going to do the auto­mat­ed com­mod­i­ty alert­ing sys­tem for us just get on that quick smart. Thank you.

Tony  41:13

And put some over­rides in there for fudg­ing, too.

Cameron  41:16

Yeah, the Tony, what’d we call it? The Tony mag­ic.

Tony  41:26

I’m gonna bend a line. I’m gonna bend the line every­body.

Cameron  41:33

God, good times. All right, what else you got,

Tony  41:40

Okay. Stock of the week.

Cameron  41:41

Right.

Tony  41:43

Stock of the Week I’ve got GWR, these are both iron ore stocks, GWR which is the small cap one. It’s, it’s not just iron ore, it’s also gold and tung­sten. It’s a min­er, obvi­ous­ly, that’s come up to, back onto the buy list now with our change of iron ore sen­ti­ment. QAV score of 0.79, so it’s the sec­ond high­est stock on the list. The oth­er stock of the week I want to talk about is the large cap stock, which is Grange Resources, which is back on the buy list and it’s got an ADT of one point, just under 1.4 mil­lion, so it’s plen­ty big enough for most peo­ple. And GRR is also an iron ore min­er. Large­ly Tas­man­ian, but it does have a, an iron ore mine now in WA, but large­ly in Tas­ma­nia, which is a strange place for an iron ore min­er but appar­ent­ly, it’s one of the purest iron ore min­ers on the plan­et. So, it’s, it’s good. And to run through the num­bers for our QAV score, it’s got a, I’m doing this with a share price of 74.5 cents, which it was on the 12th of the 12th when I did this analy­sis. It has a div­i­dend yield of 5.37%, which is quite high, the Stock Doc­tor finan­cial health is strong and steady. For peo­ple who are inter­est­ed, the ROE is 46%, again, which is very high. The price to oper­at­ing cash flow is 2.3 times so we’re buy­ing it very cheap­ly, and the PE is 2.5 times. So, again, very cheap on both those met­rics. We don’t have an IV 2 score for it, because we’re not get­ting enough cov­er­age from bro­kers to give us some, some future pro­jec­tions on this one. But IV 1 on this stock is $1.50 and it’s cur­rent­ly trad­ing, or it was trad­ing on the 12th at 74.5 cents, so it’s quite cheap com­pared to its IV 1. Net equi­ty per share is 77 cents, so its trad­ing below its book val­ue, and cer­tain­ly below its book val­ue plus 30%. It also is trad­ing at the record low of its last three years of PEs, and has con­sis­tent­ly increas­ing equi­ty. And this is one of the few stocks that we come across where the PE is less than the yield, so that the PE is, what’d I say? 2.5 and the yields 5.4%. So, we see this every now and again, par­tic­u­lar­ly in min­ing stocks, but I’ve always found a real­ly good sign of a stock to buy from a val­ue per­spec­tive. All in all, if you add all those up, we have an unbe­liev­able qual­i­ty score of 108% which sounds strange but it scor­ing on all the met­rics that we can score it on and one of them is a two so we’re get­ting high­er than 100%. And then the QAV score is 0.47 so it’s quite high the up the buy list as well for a large cap stock.

Cameron  44:31

I think GWR had a qual­i­ty score of 100%, too. So, yeah, two good stocks for us this week. Of course, I actu­al­ly pub­lished the stocks of the week yes­ter­day, both of them.

Tony  44:46

Sor­ry.

Cameron  44:48

No, I picked the same two that you picked because yeah, but GWR is down 8% since I put it out there yes­ter­day, of course.

Tony  45:00

That’s our Uri Geller and you work­ing in tan­dem again, isn’t it?

Cameron  45:03

Yeah, exact­ly. Alright, good stuff. Iron ore. Yeah, hope­ful­ly GRR, is, does as well this time as it did last time for us, although it’s, as I said ear­li­er, it’s almost back to where it was. I just want­ed to throw in some­thing that I just remem­bered. So, as of this Thurs­day, the 16th of Novem­ber, which is prob­a­bly the day after this episode comes out, the love­ly folks at Stock Doc­tor will have a QAV stock fil­ter built into their prod­uct, which is very nice of them, some­thing I’ve been ask­ing them to do for near­ly three years. And they’re doing it, which is nice. Actu­al­ly, two years, how long we’ve been doing this show? Yeah, near­ly three years, actu­al­ly. Yeah, like Feb­ru­ary.

Tony  45:54

Three years Feb­ru­ary.

Cameron  45:55

Feb­ru­ary. Yeah right. Now, here’s the catch. It’s only avail­able to QAV sub­scribers. I’d like it to be avail­able to every­one, but it’s only avail­able to QAV sub­scribers, so it’s baby steps, and it’s only avail­able if you sign up through the QAV offer on Stock Doc­tor. So, like the Christ­mas ads that we’re run­ning today. And even if you’ve signed up for it they said, they asked me like, “do we need to make it avail­able to every­one who signed up before we launched it?” And I said, “well, prob­a­bly not. I fig­ured those peo­ple have prob­a­bly already built their own fil­ter in there, I don’t real­ly see the advan­tage of them hav­ing access to this one, it’s exact­ly the same thing as what peo­ple have already got if they’re fol­low­ing the bible.” It just means that when peo­ple sign up to Stock Doc­tor via the QAV link mov­ing for­wards, the fil­ter will be there ready to go up and run­ning. Boom, chic­ka boom, boom. You don’t need to fart around build­ing your own fil­ter. So, that’s nice. It’s, it’s a lit­tle step, but it’s an excit­ing step, I think. What do you think?

Tony  47:03

Yeah, well done Cam for organ­is­ing that and well done to Stock Doc­tor for facil­i­tat­ing it. It’s, it’s good. It’ll be an eas­i­er process to onboard peo­ple as they come onto QAV now.

Cameron  47:13

Yeah, that’s what I argued to them; eas­i­er for us to get peo­ple on to Stock Doc­tor and to get them get­ting val­ue out of their Stock Doc­tor sub­scrip­tion if they can start using QAV quick­ly and etc. So, that’s nice.

Tony  47:26

Yeah, good.

Cameron  47:28

I would love them to start pro­mot­ing QAV to all of their Stock Doc­tor mem­bers. But, you know, baby steps,

Tony  47:37

Baby steps, yeah.

Cameron  47:42

I still think we should just buy Stock Doc­tor and take it over and just make it QAV Doc­tor?

Tony  47:48

Oh, well, maybe one day.

Cameron  47:52

Okay.

Tony  47:53

We bet­ter find out whether Stock Doc­tor is a prof­itable busi­ness first.

Cameron  47:58

Well, it will be after we take it over. What else you got?

Tony  48:02

Noth­ing. I’ve got some after hours, but we can save that till the end. So, let’s do some ques­tions, hey?

Cameron  48:06

All right. Got a lot of ques­tions this week. Eric says “first­ly, I’d like to say I thor­ough­ly enjoyed your pod­cast this year. I wish you and Tony a very Mer­ry Christ­mas.” Well, thank you Eric. Or as we now cel­e­brate in our house­hold, Dr Whomas. Chris­sy fig­ured the only way to get me on board was if we made it Doc­tor Who themed and I like the idea of The Doc­tor com­ing and vis­it­ing me on Christ­mas Eve so that’s good.

Tony  48:33

That’s a great idea. I agree. It’s bet­ter than, what was the one you used to cel­e­brate? Anthrax day or some­thing?

Cameron  48:39

Anaxago­ras day, not anthrax day. Anaxago­ras is his­to­ry’s first record­ed athe­ist, got him­self in a lot of trou­ble about 400 BCE. I think they cut his tongue out and burned his eyes out for say­ing that there were no such things as gods and that the sun was just a big ball of fire in the sky. Any­way, back to Eric’s ques­tion: “over the last month or two with the chop­py mar­ket there’s been a lot of dis­cus­sion about always being in the mar­ket. I’ve had a lot of 10% rule 1 stocks sold over this time as do oth­ers I speak to in QAV Mel­bourne.” Well, you can’t lis­ten in to any­thing that bunch of alco­holics and their bloody dis­tillery tours say down in Mel­bourne, Eric. “From what I get from the dis­cus­sions of always being in the mar­ket is that we are look­ing at our port­fo­lio as a whole and to keep try­ing to have the bal­ance tick­ing for­ward. Swap­ping an under­per­form­ing stock that hits a 10% loss with one that is ris­ing is one of the process­es we adopt. If we’re doing this with stocks, which we have just bought and drop why aren’t we sell­ing stocks which dropped 10% from their recent highs? These con­tribute to the port­fo­lio bal­ance at the same val­ue as the stocks we just buy, poten­tial­ly a big drop you stand to lose much more than 10%, as we saw when iron prices plunged. Appre­ci­ate your thoughts. Cheers, Eric.”

Tony  50:03

Yes, good ques­tion, Eric, I think, well, I approach this as a way of pro­tect­ing the ini­tial cap­i­tal. So, if some­thing goes up 50%, and that drops 10%, that’s less wor­ry­ing to me, because I’ve made mon­ey along the way. And I’ll use the three-point sell lines and the oth­er rules to sell for that, like CEO resign­ing or what­ev­er. But for mon­ey I’ve just put into a stock if it drops 10%, I’m say­ing to myself, “okay, I’ve got that one wrong, I’ve made a mis­take.” And the oth­er exam­ple of this’s, “I’ve got it right, the stocks gone up. And, and there­fore, I’m not putting a 10% stop gap on it I’m using the three-point sell line.” So, it’s real­ly about just pro­tect­ing ini­tial cap­i­tal, which that’s more impor­tant to me, I guess. And it’s prob­a­bly also, I tend to find that things are the most riski­est when I’m get­ting into them for the first time, espe­cial­ly if they, if they’re just turn­ing up, for exam­ple, any sort of bad use can have them turn­ing down again, so there’s that as well. If I did put a 10% stop loss in gen­er­al across every­thing I had the port­fo­lio would be a lot more volatile. It would look a lot like our ini­tial out­lays have looked over the last cou­ple of months, so like you, Eric, I’ve been buy­ing and sell­ing, buy­ing and sell­ing, buy­ing and sell­ing. So, it’s not much fun, and the mar­ket is very chop­py. But I take that as being insur­ance to try and pro­tect my, my cap­i­tal as I get into things. If you have a look at say a Fortes­cue Met­als Group graph or some­thing like that, that would often go up and then come back 10%, then go up and then come back 10%. So, I would­n’t want to be sell­ing out of that. And then when do you buy back in? If it goes from 10% from its highs to 9%? Is that when you’re sell­ing? But it could drop to 11%? So, yeah, the rules, the rules I have in place are main­ly around three-point trend lines. But I’ve just put this one in there to pro­tect myself from ini­tial invest­ments rather than from invest­ments over­all.

Cameron  51:54

Yeah, I think you got­ta think of it like dat­ing Eric, like you got to date a lot of peo­ple just to see how it works out. You know, it’s the suck it and see approach. You don’t, you don’t want to get, you don’t want to mar­ry every­one that you take a fan­cy to. But then when you do get mar­ried, you got to, you got to ride the ups and downs a lit­tle bit more, you know, once you’re com­mit­ted long term. I mean, I’ve been mar­ried lots of times, but don’t take, don’t fol­low. Do what I say not what I do, that’s what I tell my kids.

Tony  52:23

And you would have had 10% drops in your wealth every time you got mar­ried and then got out.

Cameron  52:28

Oh, much more, much more than 10%, Tony. Much more.

Tony  52:34

Yeah, look, I think, I think it’s also fair to say to Eric, that a 10% retrace­ment of the, of the entire port­fo­lio is just par for the course in the stock mar­ket. We’ll cer­tain­ly have many of those events hap­pen­ing over our invest­ing lives. And I would­n’t want to sell out and try and tie my com­ing back in using a 10% stop loss on the, on the total port­fo­lio either.

Cameron  52:55

Yeah, so that’s how I explain it to peo­ple like, we’re pro­tect­ing our cap­i­tal but the prof­it, were easy. We’re more than hap­py to give up a lit­tle bit of prof­it to see if it comes back, you know, so because we don’t want to be too volatile. Thank you, Eric. Paul: “hey Cam, just to con­tin­ue your com­ic asides, I noticed ATL jumped 26% today on merg­er news.” I said to Paul, that’s love­ly, but you watch it drop 40% tomor­row, Paul, and then we’ll see who’s laugh­ing. “And per­haps Tony may have a few thoughts on the merger/dual list­ing with NZ Com­pa­ny Tourism Hold­ings and the process exist­ing ATL share­hold­ers should fol­low to work out if they should hold on to their new shares in the merged enti­ty.

Tony  53:39

So, I don’t have an opin­ion about the APL merg­er, or the dual list­ing in New Zealand, there are stocks which are dual list­ed, not just in New Zealand, but all over the place, like we spoke about before San­tos and PNG. So, my, my gen­er­al rule about this is, first of all, use the three-point trend line. So, sen­ti­ment will be a guide, the ana­lysts who fol­low ATL will work out long before we could ever do it whether it’s a good deal or not. So, I can, I can see that the price is still going up slight­ly, so I think it’s get­ting a tick from the peo­ple who watch it. And if it drops off, then you’ve got a three-point trend sell line to pro­tect us. But if you want­ed to do the work, you could look at the announce­ments that they’ve been mak­ing about the merg­er and they gen­er­al­ly will pub­lish a pro for­ma p&l and bal­ance sheet to show you what the merged enti­ty will look like and you could use that or even con­struct it your­self based on those two com­pa­nies. Add them togeth­er and put them through the check­list and see what you want to do. But gen­er­al­ly, what I do is just con­tin­ue to use all my cur­rent rules with three-point trend lines and oth­er events. If they’re bad, bad enough to cause a sell to cause me to sell oth­er­wise I’m stay­ing in.

Cameron  54:51

I think ATLs, did­n’t we decid­ed it still had a qual­i­fied audit the last time we looked at it?

Tony  54:58

Yeah, so there was, again it was a grey area. There was the audi­tors again, I think it was in one of the notes, rather than in the audit, there was a note talk­ing about whether it con­tin­ued as a mate­r­i­al, sor­ry, whether it can con­tin­ue as a going con­cern. And I think it may, it was either the audi­tors or the direc­tors drew atten­tion to the fact that com­ing out of like, they were very reliant on what was hap­pen­ing with COVID, because they’re a tourist-based com­pa­ny. So, if they come out of COVID, and they’ve been able to sur­vive on gov­ern­ment sub­si­dies, then they’ll be fine. But that’s, that’s a crys­tal ball pro­jec­tion. So, the direc­tors weren’t pre­pared to make any sort of fore­casts about how they were trav­el­ling, and they did call it out as a poten­tial issue. So, I did make them a qual­i­fied audit, even though the audit did go through, or the audit did­n’t call it out as a qual­i­fied audit.

Cameron  55:46

And then obvi­ous­ly, this New Zealand com­pa­ny’s come along and thought it was a good deal so they’ve snapped it up, share price’s gone up as var­i­ous peo­ple point­ed out, includ­ing Paul hav­ing a laugh at me. So, does that mean that we maybe should have had it on our buy list and ignored the qual­i­fied audit thing? Or maybe because it made them a good acqui­si­tion oppor­tu­ni­ty? Well, not the qual­i­fied audit, but the tough times that they’ve been hav­ing and I guess they’re all sort of con­nect­ed, some­how?

Tony  56:16

Well, as I said, at the time, when we talked about APO, when the results came out, this is a risk and reward trade. If you want to take the risk of, of there being no phase three COVID lock­downs, of gov­ern­ment sup­port con­tin­u­ing based on, you know, free mon­ey being print­ed by the cen­tral banks. And sure, it was a good invest­ment, it was cheap, it was a good buy. How­ev­er, I just did­n’t want to risk the mon­ey. So, the peo­ple who did look like they’d been reward­ed and good luck to them, but it was, it was a very high risk they were tak­ing. And you know, with Omi­cron, who knows what’s gonna hap­pen, we could still be fac­ing risks with this one.

Cameron  56:51

Yeah. Con­grat­u­la­tions to the peo­ple that ignored you and bought it any­way. May your luck always be that good.

Tony  57:01

Well, a mar­ket always needs two sides, does­n’t it? A buy­er and a sell­er?

Cameron  57:05

That’s true. Yeah. Paul, I’m hap­py for peo­ple to have some fun at my expense. Tony, it’s all good. Nick asks, “Hi, Cam and TK, a cou­ple of ques­tions. One, what’s the strat­e­gy when you can’t find any­thing to buy at 0.1 and bet­ter, ie you are lim­it­ed to ASX 300 stocks? I’ve already tak­en larg­er indi­vid­ual posi­tions inside super than I oth­er­wise would have based on hold­ing twen­ty total stocks inside and out­side super in an effort to reduce the num­ber of ASX 300 com­pa­nies I need to find. What’s next? Wait for the Josephine’s to turn and/or wait for some­thing new to come along? Would you wait in cash or pick up a large cap/liquid ETF?”

Tony  57:54

Yeah, these are all good ques­tions, Nick, these are the ques­tions I find myself fac­ing as well. So, the first thing I do is to make sure that all of my hold­ings are topped up to at least 5%. So, in oth­er words, one twen­ti­eth of the port­fo­lio because some­times, you know, over time, I’ve bought things a cou­ple of years ago when I was buy­ing small­er parcels, like some­thing may have retreat­ed but has­n’t become a sell yet. So, I’ll use cash to try and bal­ance up the port­fo­lio so I’ve still got fif­teen to twen­ty stocks. Fail­ing that, I’ll hold cash. So, the oth­er, oth­er options, which I look at from time to time is, and you may not be able to do this, Nick is to buy small stocks. So, some­times I’ll say I’ll have twen­ty-five stocks in the port­fo­lio, but five of them are small ones, if I feel that con­fi­dent about those stocks, and some­times I’ll look below the 0.1 thresh­old, but I very rarely do that. I think I’ve done it about once and that was to buy Min­er­al Resources dur­ing the iron ore boom. But no, gen­er­al­ly, if I can’t find any­thing else to buy, I’ll buy cash. And that’s kind of like a self-serv­ing mech­a­nism, it’s telling me that if I can’t find some­thing to buy, it’s prob­a­bly a good time to sit with some cash on the side­lines. So, yeah, I would­n’t be too wor­ried about hav­ing some cash on the side­lines at the moment while you’re wait­ing for the Josephine’s to turn around.

Cameron  59:15

Right. But you’re not, you don’t like sit­ting on cash, it’s just, you do that if you can’t find any­thing to buy?

Tony  59:22

Yeah, cor­rect.

Cameron  59:24

Okay, part two of Nick­’s ques­tion; “price to oper­at­ing cash flow. Is this a strong rule? For exam­ple, FMG scores well in the QAV score, 0.2 some­thing, has good sen­ti­ment but very poor Pr/OpCaf ver­sus our tar­get. If iron ore turned around,” which it has since Nick sent me this ques­tion, obvi­ous­ly, “would FMG stay off the list until Pr/OpCaf came good, par­tic­u­lar­ly if scratch­ing for some large cap options?”

Tony  59:52

I think the Pr/OpCaf of FMG is very good. I have its as 3.3 times.

Cameron  59:58

Right.

Tony  59:59

And it would­n’t, would­n’t — we put it back on the buy list this week­end — It would­n’t be on the buy list if it had bad Pr/OpCaf.

Cameron  1:00:04

Well, depend­ing on what’s bad because we’ve talked about this recent­ly, there are some things with Pr/OpCaf above sev­en that still score well and we end up buy­ing them, or they end up on the buy list.

Tony  1:00:15

Yeah, but they’re very rarely above eight.

Cameron  1:00:17

Yeah. Right, yeah.

Tony  1:00:18

Yeah. So, and FMG is 3.3 accord­ing to my check­list.

Cameron  1:00:24

Well, if you can tell us, shoot me an email, Nick and tell me what Pr/OpCaf you have for FMG and we’ll see why you have a dif­fer­ent one to us. Luke: “hey, Cam ques­tion from a friend for the show.” Alright, Luke, Luke was sup­posed to ask this when he was on the show. We obvi­ous­ly all for­got. He says, “I’m keen to under­stand what con­sti­tutes a bull mar­ket and a bear mar­ket? And does the QAV con­cept change any­thing depend­ing on the mar­ket? I’m also hear­ing of this new mar­ket term called a roo mar­ket, as in kan­ga­roo, but I think it might be more tongue in cheek.” Luke then says, “I believe the answer will be some­what along the lines of we just fol­low the num­bers and process through any mar­ket con­di­tions whilst try­ing to stay ful­ly invest­ed.” Was he right, Tony?

Tony  1:01:11

He is, cor­rect. Absolute­ly. Yeah, so I think there are tech­ni­cal def­i­n­i­tions. I think a bear mar­ket occurs when the, the ASX drops 10%, then they call it a bear mar­ket. And I guess a bull mar­kets the reverse if it goes up 10%. But means noth­ing to our process, we should be able to make mon­ey in both.

Cameron  1:01:31

“Good times, bad times.” All the same to us. Alice: “do you check the iron ore sen­ti­ment for a steel com­pa­ny such as BSL? BlueScope Steel, I think?

Tony  1:01:43

No, I check the steel price. So, I don’t think Stock Doc­tor has a com­mod­i­ty graph for steel, but you can cer­tain­ly find them, and I look at Index Mun­di and it has a num­ber of dif­fer­ent graphs for steel but none of them were actu­al­ly show­ing us a five-year graph and I had a look when I was prep­ping for this. But if you go to Trad­ing Eco­nom­ics, Alice, there’s a five-year month­ly steel price chart for there. And it has come off a bit, so it’s get­ting close to a sell, but over­all, it’s in an upward trend at the moment. So, just like the iron ore min­ers sell iron ore, and we look for the iron ore com­mod­i­ty price for steel for BlueScope Steel, they’re sell­ing steel and so we’re look­ing at the steel price chart for that.

Cameron  1:02:29

Okay, thank you, Alice. Last ques­tion is from Mark. Mark says “hi Cam, God once said it is far bet­ter to buy a won­der­ful com­pa­ny at a fair price than a fair com­pa­ny at a won­der­ful price.” Yes, he did. Mark. Tony did in fact say that.

Tony  1:02:47

I did­n’t say that. I said War­ren Buf­fett said that.

Cameron  1:02:51

Mm, but you said that War­ren Buf­fett said that, so, you know the same thing. Yeah.

Tony  1:02:56

That’s as good as me say­ing it?

Cameron  1:02:57

“What does Tony think is a fair price as a mul­ti­ple of an his­tor­i­cal met­ric, par­tic­u­lar­ly with ref­er­ence to Berk­shire acqui­si­tions. Six times last year’s oper­at­ing cash flow, *inaudi­ble*. In 2016, Buf­fett bought Apple at around ten times trail­ing oper­at­ing cash flow. Mer­ry Christ­mas, Mark.”

Tony  1:03:18

Well, I still think six times cash flow is a won­der­ful price, so I guess a fair price might be ten times. I haven’t real­ly thought about what the fair price is, but I think the impor­tant point here is to say that Buf­fett isn’t real­ly a val­ue investor any­more. And he has­n’t been for decades, prob­a­bly ever since he met Char­lie Munger. He’s much more focused on pre­dictable cash flow, and his secret to pre­dictable cash flow is what he calls “the moat”. So, he’s look­ing for busi­ness­es like Apple which can churn out a new prod­uct every year, put the price up slight­ly, not be affect­ed by any sort of cost pres­sures from com­peti­tors or any­thing like that. And so, an investor like War­ren Buf­fett can say, “well, okay, I can, I can project Apple’s earn­ings for­ward with some kind of con­fi­dence, then I can dis­count them back to a fair price to pay for them today.” And that’s what he’s try­ing to do, so he’s a bit dif­fer­ent to us. We’re- I mean, you could­n’t oper­ate Berk­shire Hath­away the way we’re oper­at­ing things where you’re get­ting in and out of stocks quick­ly, that just would­n’t hap­pen, because he’s putting bil­lions and bil­lions, tens of bil­lions of dol­lars into a stock like Apple. And there­fore he’s, he’s try­ing to say “if I’m going to deploy that large amount of cap­i­tal, can I be sure that Apple is a good com­pa­ny? And can I be sure that I can pre­dict their cash flows into the future and dis­count them back to see that the price is fair?” That’s what he’s doing. It’s very dif­fer­ent to what we’re doing now.

Cameron  1:04:43

And am I right in think­ing that the Apple pur­chase was­n’t real­ly War­ren’s call in the first place?

Tony  1:04:53

Yeah. You’re right, exact­ly. So that was one of, I think it was Todd Wexler, one of his — he’s brought on a cou­ple of fund man­agers, Todd and Ted from mem­o­ry, to even­tu­al­ly take over that side of Berk­shire Hath­away, the invest­ing port­fo­lio side of Berk­shire Hath­away when War­ren and Char­lie final­ly pass on. And they might already have passed on and we could be deal­ing with some robots that replaced them. I don’t know, they seem to be liv­ing for a long time. But yeah, cer­tain­ly Todd or Ted brought Apple to his atten­tion, but he has been buy­ing it since then. It is a qual­i­ty com­pa­ny undoubt­ed­ly.

Cameron  1:05:28

Yeah. When you say he’s not a val­ue investor, too, that’s, I mean, that prob­a­bly needs some qual­i­fi­ca­tion, though, right?

Tony  1:05:34

Well, he would say that all invest­ing is val­ue invest­ing. So, to that extent, he’s a val­ue investor. But he’s no longer buy­ing what he used to call the “cig­ar butt” stocks. He’s not he’s invest­ing in the way that Ben­jamin Gra­ham taught him. So, Ben­jamin Gra­ham taught War­ren Buf­fett at Colum­bia Uni­ver­si­ty, and then War­ren went off and set up his, his own fund, and invest­ed in deep val­ue stocks and he famous­ly called them cig­ar butts. So, he would walk down the street, find a cig­ar that had had been almost used up and take the last puff and make some prof­it out of that and then dis­card it. And in fact, the most famous cig­ar butt stock was Berk­shire Hath­away itself, it was a, was a cot­ton mill in, in the north­east of the US and it was going broke but it was still throw­ing off lots of cash, and, and it was sell­ing at a very cheap price. And so War­ren kept buy­ing stocks, and even­tu­al­ly turned it, took it over, and used the cash that the cot­ton busi­ness was throw­ing off. But he was­n’t rede­ploy­ing it back into the cot­ton busi­ness he was buy­ing stocks with it, and even­tu­al­ly the tex­tile mills that Berk­shire Hath­away was run­ning was closed down. But what War­ren had used the mon­ey for was, was like Coca Cola, and Gillette and Wash­ing­ton Post was going real­ly well. And so, that’s how he start­ed off. But then when, when Char­lie Munger came along, he con­vinced War­ren it was bet­ter off buy­ing a qual­i­ty com­pa­ny at a fair price, espe­cial­ly if you’re deploy­ing large amounts of cap­i­tal. And so they start­ed to buy into stocks like Dis­ney, and Proc­ter and Gam­ble, I think, and, in the last lit­tle while, tried to buy, tried to buy Heinz and failed. But they’re the kind of stocks that he likes. So, the kind of Wal­mart stocks which are — and Berk­shire Hath­away owns a large chunk of the com­pa­ny, the part of Wal­mart that does the whole­sale sup­ply­ing back to Wal­mart, they spun it off, and Berk­shire Hath­away owes a fair bit of that. So, like I said, he’s find­ing com­pa­nies that have a moat, so they are, they have a prod­uct which is large­ly imper­vi­ous to com­pe­ti­tion. And the clas­sic exam­ple of that is a monop­oly. And War­ren got into a lot of trou­ble years ago, when he bought The Buf­fa­lo News, because he liked buy­ing news­pa­pers that were we’re the only news­pa­per in town. And even though there were two news­pa­pers in Buf­fa­lo, at that stage, War­ren start­ed drop­ping the price on the Buf­fa­lo News until it put the oth­er paper out of busi­ness and then they sued him for monop­o­lis­tic behav­iour. So, he is try­ing to find stocks that exhib­it monop­oly char­ac­ter­is­tics and the main rea­son he’s doing that is so that he can say, “I can pre­dict their cash flow into the future.” And you know, in terms of when he’s talk­ing about the future, he’s talk­ing long term, twen­ty-thir­ty-forty years in advance, and then dis­count that back and work out what’s a fair price to pay for them to day. Then you can put them into Berk­shire Hath­away, and he can set and for­get, because they may not, you know, get the sort of returns that he was get­ting when he was a val­ue investor. And if you look at the his­to­ry of Berk­shire Hath­away in the ear­ly days, he was mak­ing as much as 50% cap­i­tal returns, when he was a val­ue investor, that slowed right down in the last ten years. Berk­shire Hath­away, from mem­o­ry has­n’t — maybe the last five years — has­n’t beat­en the index. So, but what he has done is put togeth­er a very large invest­ment com­pa­ny, which he can sleep at night with and will still make decent returns but not out­sized returns. And he says that him­self open­ly as well.

Cameron  1:08:56

Yeah, so I guess you could say that he is, Berk­shire still are val­ue investors, but how they define val­ue has had to change based on the size of the invest­ments that they’re mak­ing. They don’t approach it in the same way you approach it, and they don’t approach it in the same way that Ben­jamin Gra­ham approached it. But it’s still val­ue invest­ing.

Tony  1:09:18

Yeah, it’s fair val­ue invest­ing, I think, it’s much more focused on the qual­i­ty of the com­pa­ny and the moat it has and the pre­dictabil­i­ty of it’s cash flows. So, they can buy a rail­way com­pa­ny because they can pre­dict the cash flows out into the future and know what the com­pa­ny’s worth now and that if they put it into Berk­shire Hath­away, it’s not going to fluc­tu­ate wild­ly and upset their p&l.

Cameron  1:09:39

I guess, I mean, cor­rect me if I’m wrong, but if my back of the enve­lope def­i­n­i­tion of val­ue invest­ing would be try­ing to buy some­thing for less than you think it’s worth, which is pret­ty much all invest­ing, I guess, as you said before. Well, and you know, they’re able to cal­cu­late that if you look at- I just found an arti­cle in CNN from May 2016, Berk­shire Hath­away just bought it’s first trench, I think, 9.8 mil­lion shares in Apple. Apple’s share price at the time was at a fifty-two week low when they bought in, and I think they’ve had a cou­ple of splits since then. But look­ing at the stock chart here, May 2016, it was trad­ing around, you know, in today’s prices post split’s $24 a share. It’s cur­rent­ly trad­ing at $175 a share, so that was a good invest­ment.

Tony  1:10:46

Yeah. They’ve done very well out of it, for sure. Yes.

Cameron  1:10:49

What­ev­er cal­cu­la­tions they were look­ing at, they did work out that that was a good val­ue by buy­ing it at $24 a share.

Tony  1:10:57

Yeah, but it could have been fair val­ue is my point, rather than, rather than dis­count­ed val­ue. So, the val­ue investor tries to buy a buck for 50 cents, which is what we’re doing with our, with our invest­ments. And we put a qual­i­ty over­lay on that to try and stop us from buy­ing the stocks which are duds, and you’re, you’re buy­ing 50 cents or 50 cents rather than $1. So…

Cameron  1:11:18

So, Mark’s, Mark’s ques­tion is, you know, what do you think a fair price is?

Tony  1:11:23

Yeah, I don’t have an answer for that. I’ve nev­er thought about it. I’ve tried to, I try to approach the prob­lem from a, from a point of view of when do I sell? Like, do I, when do, I know when I buy cheap because the price to cash flow is less than sev­en. But when do I sell? What price to cash flow is a sell? And we spoke about that last week, and you know, I looked at when the QAV score got to be 0.05, so basi­cal­ly half of what our thresh­old is, but I’ve held stocks which have con­tin­ued to go low­er on the QAV score, but they’ve been great invest­ments. And, and I think try­ing to time when to get out is as hard as if not hard­er than try­ing to decide when to buy. So, I guess fair val­ue is going to be some­where in the 10 range. The mar­ket, well, in terms of PE the long-term mar­ket aver­age is around 16, a 14 to 16 type range, and our Pr/OpCaf is going to be slight­ly less than the PE, so maybe the aver­age Pr/OpCaf then for the mar­ket might be 10 to 12 if the PE is, is a bit high­er than that. So, yeah, 10–12 could be fair val­ue, but I don’t real­ly have enough analy­sis to back up that state­ment.

Cameron  1:12:30

Well, would­n’t you say that fair price is what­ev­er the price is when it has a good QAV score?

Tony  1:12:40

Well, that’s the val­ue price.

Cameron  1:12:42

Not the fair price. Okay.

Tony  1:12:45

Yeah. So, I take what the, what Mark’s going on about, and he’s, and it’s a valid way to invest is to find qual­i­ty com­pa­nies and then pay a fair price. So, if he, I guess that what he’s try­ing to say is, are there stocks on our check­list which are below 0.1 but are good qual­i­ty com­pa­nies? And what’s a fair price to pay for them and the way that Buf­fet­t’s doing it now? And undoubt­ed­ly there are stocks in that cri­te­ria, I just haven’t built my invest­ment strat­e­gy around those. I tend to find that the qual­i­ty stocks, and I guess it’s a tim­ing thing, I mean, Apple, we all with­out hav­ing to do analy­sis, we know Apple’s a qual­i­ty com­pa­ny. I could do the analy­sis to point out why it’s a qual­i­ty com­pa­ny, but we kind of know it is. And if Buf­fet­t’s buy­ing it when it’s at a low point, that’s smart invest­ing, right? Whether you call it val­ue, whether you call it fair val­ue, whether you call it qual­i­ty, it’s still smart invest­ing. So, even though you may not be a val­ue investor, he’s still a good investor. And if that’s what Mark’s allud­ing to, then, then I agree with him. It’s just not how I do it. But I can find my hit rate is much bet­ter if I’m look­ing at the val­ue under the mar­ket and try­ing to find all these stocks at rea­son­able prices. I think, I think that game is pret­ty sat­u­rat­ed with peo­ple in the mar­ket, work­ing out what stocks are good and then wait­ing for them to drop in val­ue and then buy them up.

Cameron  1:14:00

When Steve Jobs passed away, the Apple share price was around $14 on today’s pric­ing met­rics. Tim Cook’s done an alright job. Well, Steve, Steve left him a great lega­cy, I guess, is the oth­er way of look­ing at it.

Tony  1:14:16

Well, prob­a­bly both are right and as Char­lie’s always said, “try and find a com­pa­ny which can be run by an idiot because one day it will be”, so Apple might well be that com­pa­ny, not say­ing Tim Cook’s and idiot, of course.

Cameron  1:14:27

Tim Cook, look, he’s not Steve Jobs either. He’d be the first per­son, I think to admit that, has done since day one and after Steve died, like “I’m not Steve Jobs.” Has to run his own race, but he does that very well.

Tony  1:14:43

But also, that kind of, that kind of analy­sis is, is Har­ry hind­sight, right? When Steve Jobs died, there was a lot of head scratch­ing and angst in the mar­ket about whether Apple would sur­vive, first of all, and whether it would thrive so yeah, so it was in hind­sight, that was the time to buy it. But it was still a very high risk trade back then.

Cameron  1:15:05

And you know, the fun­ny thing is that it real­ly has­n’t done a lot of inno­va­tion since Steve died. In the ten years and Steve died, they’ve come out with the watch, which is meh. They’ve come out with the air pods, which are great. I love the air pods. And then every­thing else is just upgrad­ed, is just upgrad­ed, every­thing else gets a lit­tle bit bet­ter, a lit­tle bit bet­ter, a lit­tle bit bet­ter.

Tony  1:15:25

And worse, like they made the bat­ter­ies fail after two years, they make you buy a dif­fer­ent don­gle every time they release.

Cameron  1:15:30

No, they fixed the bat­tery thing. That’s all good. They intro­duced opti­mised bat­tery charg­ing to make sure your bat­ter­ies don’t to wear out as fast. Don­gles, don’t give me your don­gle prob­lems, you’re a don­gle. But alright, well, that’s the show.

Tony  1:15:52

Well hang on, there was sor­ry, before I, before we for­get, there was a, there was anoth­er ques­tion on Face­book last week. I don’t know if you saw it or not. I did­n’t want to answer on Face­book because I think it was worth­while explor­ing in the pod­cast, a lis­ten­er or a sub­scriber asked a ques­tion about CDD, Card­no. You recall that ques­tion at all?

Cameron  1:16:11

No, I don’t. I think some­one asked it again today. I think Petra might have asked it again today. I’ve got a CDD ques­tion in next week’s show notes. But what was the one that you saw?

Tony  1:16:21

Look, it’s prob­a­bly too late now. I’m just look­ing at the share price today, it’s down 64% today. Actu­al­ly, it’s down sor­ry, at 87% today. So, basi­cal­ly what hap­pened was Card­no had sold off a large busi­ness unit and was going to make a return of cap­i­tal to the share­hold­ers and the share price when that became pub­lic went up from, gee, what did it go up from? Around sort of 47 cents up to as high as $1.60. And now it’s dropped back again down to, what’s it today? 21 cents. So, and some­one was ask­ing what do they do in that sit­u­a­tion, and it might be too late now, I did­n’t know it was gonna hap­pen today, but it’s a bit like a div­i­dend. So, you’ve got to work out the share price increase went up because of the cap­i­tal return and it’s dropped off again now. So, the share price now is rep­re­sent­ing the true val­ue of the busi­ness going for­ward. The share price pri­or to this was basi­cal­ly the true val­ue of the busi­ness before the sale plus the cap­i­tal return. So, lots of peo­ple piled into the stock hop­ing to get the cap­i­tal return and that would suit some investors who would pre­fer to have their income that way rather than nec­es­sar­i­ly as a cap­i­tal gain. And cer­tain­ly, I’m think­ing what hap­pened also was that the sale of that busi­ness unit indi­cat­ed to peo­ple that Card­no was under­val­ued, accord­ing to the mar­ket. Went up quick­ly, steeply, and it’s come off now the cap­i­tal return has hap­pened. So, if the per­son ask­ing that ques­tion checks their bank account, and sees that they’ve got a large deposit, they could per­haps add it back to their hold­ing in Card­no and see if it’s still a hold for them — or a sell, it could be a real 1 sell now it’s dropped back quite a lot.

Cameron  1:18:07

Right. Well, that answers Petra’s ques­tion too, she had the same sort of ques­tion. Good. After hours.

Tony  1:18:14

Yes, well, I’ve been play­ing golf, Cam. I came down for a golf trip with Rud­dy, we spent the week­end in Wag­ga, last week­end we played Roy­al Mel­bourne West, which is a great course often rat­ed the best in Aus­tralia. We played Met­ro­pol­i­tan, anoth­er good course, and we played Wood­lands, a good sand belt course, where we had a char­i­ty day and raised about $3,500 for leukody­s­tro­phy — not just the two of us but part of the, we were part of the group that did that. So, I mean lots of, lots of good golf. We played at, we’re back down at The Nation­al, we played there Sun­day, day before yes­ter­day. We’ll play there again tomor­row. So, that’s been great. The fun­ny thing was, I was lis­ten­ing to, get­ting ready to do the the inter­view with Luke before and checked his pod­cast and it starts with a — or his video­cast — it starts with a, the sound of a wring pull on a beer can hap­pen­ing, which I thought was quite, quite fun­ny. I meant to ask him about that. And it remind­ed me of one of my favourite tracks from the 90s by a band called Dinosaur Jr. called Feel the Pain, and I know the YouTube video does­n’t start that way but the track I used to have on the CD I had of theirs starts with a cork pop­ping and then a wine­glass fill­ing with wine. It was always a great, great sound, I thought. So, I’ve been get­ting into Dinosaur Jr. if any­one’s inter­est­ed. They’re large­ly, you know, you know who Dinosaur Jr. is, Cam?

Cameron  1:19:32

I know, I know the name. Yeah.

Tony  1:19:35

I was a big fan back in the 90s and they were going since the 80s. And they’re often cit­ed by peo­ple like Kurt Cobain when he was alive and Bil­ly Cor­gan from the Smash­ing Pump­kins as being their biggest influ­ence but they were a three-piece part-grunge part-indie lots of tem­po changes but real­ly inter­est­ing stuff with a sort of a singer who sounds a bit like Neil Young. Any­way, peo­ple can look at that, I’ve been get­ting back into their music. And then in terms of movies, we start­ed watch­ing Get back again. It’s been so much fun watch­ing the six hours of that and great to see the full live con­cert on the roof when the police turned up to shut ’em down and Paul went, “yay, they’re here” and went “woo!” and start­ed play­ing even faster.

Cameron  1:20:15

Now that Jen­ny’s worked out that they’re not actors play­ing the Bea­t­les. Yeah, we fin­ished that as well a few days ago, and we haven’t stopped talk­ing about it. And we haven’t stopped lis­ten­ing to the album too, par­tic­u­lar­ly the Glyn John mix, which is up on Apple Music too, I don’t know if you’ve heard that. The orig­i­nal mix that nev­er, nev­er saw the light of day except for boot­leg copies, which is real­ly rough and raw, but great. But yeah, what a great, great doc­u­men­tary, just blew all my expec­ta­tions away.

Tony  1:20:47

Same, I agree. We haven’t stopped talk­ing about it as well. It’s fan­tas­tic. And then on Dis­ney + when we fin­ished watch­ing that one night, we watched a movie called The Dual. Have you seen that?

Cameron  1:20:58

The old one with Har­vey Kei­t­el?

Tony  1:21:00

No Rid­ley Scot­t’s. It’s just come out. Jodie Com­er and Adam Dri­ver and Ben Affleck and Matt Damon.

Cameron  1:21:08

I think Rid­ley Scott direct­ed the orig­i­nal one, too that I was talk­ing about, did­n’t he? I think with Har­vey Kei­t­el and…

Tony  1:21:16

That was a Dual­ist was­n’t it, I think from mem­o­ry?

Cameron  1:21:19

Oh, the new one? Yeah, I have seen the trail­er for that. Is it any good? It looks a lit­tle bit kind of Hol­ly­woody for my tastes.

Tony  1:21:25

I thought it was bril­liant. It remind­ed me of, I mean, you’ve got to get past Matt Damon’s act­ing and all that, but Ben Affleck­’s a lot of fun. But it reminds me of those great movies from, oh, I don’t know, the 80s like the French Lieu­tenan­t’s Woman and Betray­al, where they have those great scripts that take dif­fer­ent points of view and take dif­fer­ent tim­ings and all the rest. So, it’s the one sto­ry, very straight­for­ward sto­ry, which I won’t bore you with, but it gets told first of all from Matt Damon’s point of view, then from Adam Driver’s point of view, then from Jody Com­ers point of view. And it’s about a rape, the three dif­fer­ent points of view and it’s just bril­liant. Great script, great direct­ing, and real­ly good. I rec­om­mend it thor­ough­ly.

Cameron  1:22:09

The Last Dual, it’s called. I just looked it up. Yeah.

Tony  1:22:13

Okay, thank you.

Cameron  1:22:14

And he did direct The Dual­ists in 1977.

Tony  1:22:18

Yeah, okay.

Cameron  1:22:19

With Kei­th Car­ra­dine and Har­vey Kei­t­el, and Albert Finney.

Tony  1:22:25

So, I won­der if it’s a remake? I can’t recall what that one was about.

Cameron  1:22:28

Oh, no that, The Dual­ist was set in Napoleon’s army. It was a cou­ple of Napoleon’s sol­diers who had this blood feud that went on over years and years.

Tony  1:22:40

Yeah, right. I remem­ber that now. No, this is about two squires in the French army. And Matt Damon plays the sort of straight up and down you know, do the right thing by the King, loy­al to every­one type per­son and Adam Dri­ver plays anoth­er squire who just, just keeps out wit­ting him and is very apolo­getic about it. But he takes his land. he takes his cap­tain­cy, takes his cas­tle takes, and then rapes his wife, and Matt Damon’s just like “I’m over this. I want a dual.” But, yeah, it’s set in 1300s, late 1300s in the plague times. And the king of France I think is Louie VI who’s like a Dauphin, he’s a, he’s a kid, four­teen-year-old kid who gets very excit­ed and clapped his hand because there’s going to be a dual. But yeah, lots of, I real­ly enjoy it. And just the, just the struc­ture of it and the script of it was fan­tas­tic. And you remem­ber back in those sort of French Lieu­tenan­t’s Woman type scripts, where you have those sto­ries about the mak­ing the movie, so it’s about the actors as well as the movie and then you have betray­al where Harold Pin­ta wrote one of the best scripts ever, where the movie plays out back­wards. Long before Momen­to was ever writ­ten by Christo­pher Nolan. Just bril­liant­ly the­atri­cal, lit­er­ary scripts, and this is one of those, it’s real­ly good.

Cameron  1:24:01

Well craft­ed. That’s great.

Tony  1:24:03

Very well craft­ed. Yeah.

Cameron  1:24:04

I haven’t, I did­n’t watch the finale of Suc­ces­sion last night. So, if you’ve seen it, don’t tell me about it.

Tony  1:24:11

I haven’t watched it either. I’ve had friends down here, we’ve been eat­ing and drink­ing at night.

Cameron  1:24:16

But you saw last week’s episode?

Tony  1:24:18

I have not. No.

Cameron  1:24:19

Oh my god. Okay, I’m not gonna spoil that one for you then.

Tony  1:24:24

Okay, thanks.

Cameron  1:24:25

I have been read­ing Robert Forster’s book the 10 rules of Rock and Roll, you ever read that?

Tony  1:24:31

No. Robert Forster being the Go Between?

Cameron  1:24:33

Yes. Real­ly great book, I just stum­bled across it. Sort of he, he for many years and he may still do I don’t know, he wrote a music crit­ic col­umn for The Month­ly mag­a­zine. And this is just a col­lec­tion most­ly of his reviews on music and books and maybe some film I think, but he’s such a great writer. Just every, every review that I’ve read is rang­ing from Bob Dylan through to Delta Goodrem and Franz Fer­di­nand, wide spec­trum of bands of musi­cians. He just, he has a real­ly engag­ing way of bring­ing a lot of heart warmth, even when he’s crit­i­cal of the album. He’s, like, sup­port­ive of the artist, and what they’re try­ing to do and say, “yeah, this does­n’t real­ly work. And that does­n’t work. But they’ve got so much tal­ent and poten­tial and this is real­ly great. And if they could just like, trim the tracks down by this much or do that, or they need new pro­duc­tion,” and it’s real­ly, it’s just, he’s obvi­ous­ly just a deep, deep music lover/nerd and that comes across. It’s real­ly great writ­ing. I’m thor­ough­ly enjoy­ing it.

Tony  1:25:47

Oh good, I’ll look out for it. I like Robert Fos­ter’s music too, it’s real­ly good.

Cameron  1:25:51

Mm, well, you’re gonna like his new album.

Tony  1:25:54

Oh, good. Are you going to announce why?

Cameron  1:25:59

No, I’m not allowed to.

Tony  1:26:02

Any­way, he does write good albums. The preach­er was a fan­tas­tic album that I can recall straight­away. That was out about five years ago. Yeah.

Cameron  1:26:08

Did you know him? You guys would have been grow­ing up around about the same time in Bris­bane, I think.

Tony  1:26:13

I did not, no, I must have seen the Go Betweens play about twen­ty times but I did­n’t know him, not per­son­al­ly.

Cameron  1:26:17

Right. Very good. Well, yeah, I haven’t read his book Grant and I, his sort of biog­ra­phy of him and Gra­ham McLen­nan. I’m gonna read that as well after, when I’ve fin­ished this one because I’m just real­ly enjoy­ing it.

Tony  1:26:31

Yeah, I’ll look out for that too, thanks.

Cameron  1:26:34

That’s about it, that’s all I got to talk about. Oh, The Great is back, I don’t know if you’ve got­ten into The Great?

Tony  1:26:40

No, what’s that one about?

Cameron  1:26:42

So good, it’s a, it’s a series about Cather­ine the Great tak­ing over Rus­sia.

Tony  1:26:48

Oh, I’ve seen it. Yeah, okay. I haven’t caught it yet.

Cameron  1:26:51

Yeah, new sea­son of that. And it’s just I mean, it’s sil­ly, but the per­for­mances are so great. I think she and Nico­las Hoult who plays Peter both got nom­i­na­tions for Gold­en Globes this week for their per­for­mances. It’s a, it’s a lot of fun, stu­pid but fun and as it says very loose­ly based on his­tor­i­cal events.

Tony  1:27:12

Sounds like that movie about Marie Antoinette that Sofia Cop­po­la did.

Tony  1:27:15

Yeah, well done.

Cameron  1:27:15

It is sim­i­lar to that but, very sim­i­lar in style, but I, this is done bet­ter, I think. I love Sofia Cop­po­la’s stuff, but I think this is just… and it’s actu­al­ly, it start­ed as a, as a the­atri­cal pro­duc­tion in Lon­don. It’s by an Aussie, an Aussie wrote it and pro­duced it in Lon­don, big hit on stage. And he’s also the showrun­ner and writes most of the scripts for the TV show. So he’s done a good job. Don’t know him, can’t remem­ber his name, but good for him.

Cameron  1:27:48

I’m try­ing to go see Dune, the new Vil­leneuve, it’s out now, it’s in the cin­e­mas. But can’t, you’d think I could get Tay­lor to babysit his half broth­er for a few hours while Chris­sy and I go to a movie?

Tony  1:28:02

Well, he’s prob­a­bly as busy as I am with all that Char­i­ty Exchange stuff.

Cameron  1:28:06

Busy shmizzy. Take a few hours out on a night or a week­end. Nah. Nei­ther him nor his broth­er. No tak­ers. So any­way, any­way, that’s my plan for this week is to go see that.

Tony  1:28:19

Oh, good. And appar­ent­ly it’s only part one.

Cameron  1:28:21

Yes. Good. As it should be. I mean, it’s a mas­sive book and you don’t want to short­change it and stuff it in to nine­ty min­utes.

Tony  1:28:31

He’s doing a Peter Jack­son. They’ll do the part one then part two. Yeah, like The Hob­bit, like what the Lord of the Rings was, yeah.

Cameron  1:28:37

Man, I just wish you know, I wish Peter Jack­son would just show us the oth­er hun­dred hours of The Bea­t­les footage. Like I actu­al­ly said before when the cops come up on the roof and Paul turns around and sees them and he just laughs, and then Mal Evans turns George’s amp off and George walks over and turns it back on.

Tony  1:28:58

And Ringo’s look­ing over his shoul­der and just being Ringo. What do I? Do I drum, do I stop?

Cameron  1:29:04

I tell you what, the thing that Chris­sy and I haven’t stopped talk­ing about the most is Bil­ly Pre­ston.

Tony  1:29:10

Ah, impres­sive was­n’t it?

Cameron  1:29:11

Well, you just realise when he comes into it that this is what they’ve been miss­ing all along is just Bil­ly Pre­ston. He just, like he sits down and with­in like, yeah, you know the songs are still sort of half craft­ed, he just sits down and boom. That all just comes togeth­er with Bil­ly on the keys.

Tony  1:29:30

It does, it does, does­n’t it? And he must be so musi­cal because he does­n’t, unless Peter Jack­son cut out all the false attempts, but he just sits down and plays the riff just like it appears on the record.

Cameron  1:29:40

Yeah. Well, he’s, he was a child prodi­gy going and play­ing in Ray Charles band when he was four­teen I think and, yeah. He was like, I don’t know how old he was in ’69, but I’m guess­ing mid-late twen­ties, prob­a­bly the same age as the Bea­t­les were. They knew him in Ham­burg, I think, he was play­ing with Ray Charles’s band with Aaron Ham­burg and they used to hang out togeth­er then, so they’ve known him a long time, a lot of trust. But yeah, fab­u­lous musi­cian and it just brings that lev­el of groove and r&b to those songs that is just fan­tas­tic.

Tony  1:30:14

Yes, I agree. And even, even Let it Be, you know, a slow song, he just, the organ in the back­ground of that real­ly gives it some oomph and pow­er.

Cameron  1:30:24

Yeah and the organ solo and every­thing that kicks in before Phil Spec­tor came and did his stuff, which was more, I think Long and Wind­ing Road real­ly than Let it Be any­way. But any­way, what a gift. What a just, like, I think for Peter Jack­son too, he must be an uber fan, but to take four years out of his life to put that togeth­er, what a gift.

Tony  1:30:45

Yes.

Cameron  1:30:47

Here’s the thing, too. I mean, I know, peo­ple prob­a­bly bored shit­less, but this is just what Tony and I talk about when no one around. I went back and I watched A Hard Day’s Night after it too. And, and then I read up on A Hard Day’s Night, and there’s so much about the Bea­t­les that I nev­er real­ly thought about or appre­ci­at­ed. Like, there’s a lot of stuff out there talk­ing about how they, how much they changed soci­ety, not just music. But, you know, when they, when they first hit the scene over there, you know, ear­ly 60s, Britain was still obvi­ous­ly try­ing to, you know, claw back some sense of rel­e­vance. I saw David Bowie say, what peo­ple don’t realise about the Bea­t­les is it gave Britain a rea­son to be proud again, for the first time in, you know, since World War Two, because they’d lost the Empire, they, you know, their econ­o­my was, you know, destroyed for decades.

Tony  1:31:41

Well we all said that when we watch­ing the first episode, again, like it starts off with a brief his­to­ry of The Bea­t­les. And it’s like, they start­ed play­ing less than ten years after World War Two.

Cameron  1:31:50

Yeah. But it was this whole thing too about, a bit like James Dean and his films, like The Bea­t­les, in this very con­ser­v­a­tive British soci­ety where peo­ple were either, it was still class based, and the low­er class­es want­ed to be the upper class­es, and they want­ed to have the man­ners and the, you know, they want­ed to aspire to the upper class­es, the Bea­t­les came along and just sort of laughed in their faces. You go back and watch, I don’t know how long it is since you’ve seen A Hard Day’s Night, but there’s this great scene in the begin­ning when they get on the train, and they get into a train car­riage, and there’s this rich white busi­ness­man in there, and he’s like, “I fought the war.” And they just, they’re just mak­ing, they’re just tak­ing the piss out of him, they don’t care. They don’t care about all of that they’re just hav­ing a good time, scruffy, wear­ing suits, but a lit­tle bit scruffy with the long hair, just, they just sort of had this sense of effer­ves­cence and per­mis­sion to just be your­self and not care about, you know, the mores of British soci­ety, the whole thing. But then watch­ing the film, too, I real­ly realised that in ’69, okay, Zep­pelin’s out, Black Sab­bath, you know, The Doors, Vel­vet, all this stuff’s going on, which is so ‚it’s like the next gen­er­a­tion after them. They had no idea that they were going to be rel­e­vant fifty years lat­er. They had no idea — could­n’t have known — that they were how the Bea­t­les would be remem­bered 50 years lat­er, and beloved, and that it would still be the biggest sell­ing band of all time fifty years lat­er. They had no, they could not have real­ly under­stood their role in late 20th, ear­ly 21st cen­tu­ry, cul­ture and soci­ety, they’re just a band that’s been scram­bling away for a few years. Had some suc­cess, but back then bands dis­ap­peared overnight as they do today, and they must have known that that could hap­pen to them; they could be total­ly irrel­e­vant. Then I was watch­ing Bowie being inter­viewed, this is in the mid 90s, and he was say­ing he first met John Lennon in ’74 or ’75, and he said, you know, it was very uncool then to say that you like the Bea­t­les, no one would admit to lik­ing the Bea­t­les in the mid 70s.

Tony  1:33:57

Yeah, right. It was all heavy rock, like The Who and all those peo­ple.

Cameron  1:34:01

Exact­ly, all heavy rock, and then dis­co and all this kind of stuff. And then Van Halen and met­al and punk and all that kind of stuff. So, you know, you try and put your­self in their shoes, and Paul’s obvi­ous­ly try­ing to fig­ure out how to stay rel­e­vant. What can they do? And then the whole thing about Bri­an Epstein dying and they don’t have any adult super­vi­sion, there’s no adult in the room, then they kind of don’t real­ly have any sense of direc­tion and, Paul, you can tell he does­n’t want to do it. But he’s like, “well, some­body’s got to do it. I don’t want to,” you know, he even says that, right? “I don’t want to do it. I don’t want to be the leader, John, you’re obvi­ous­ly the leader. But some­body’s got­ta set a direc­tion here or we’re just going to faff around for­ev­er.” Just the human — their place in soci­ety and the human side of it I just found real­ly, real­ly engag­ing,

Tony  1:34:50

Mm, yeah, I mean, I read a book a cou­ple of years ago, some­one gave it to me for a Christ­mas present, I think it’s called Shout by Philip Nor­man I think from mem­o­ry. It goes almost day by day through the lives of the Bea­t­les, like just as four sto­ries about, you know, their lives in in Liv­er­pool and the poor parts of Liv­er­pool, what their par­ents did. McCart­ney’s father was a musi­cian. Talks about Lennon and his father dying and all this stuff. And it goes right up to the date of their first record­ing, how Epstein dis­cov­ers them, because kids keep com­ing into his record store ask­ing for Bea­t­les records. And it’s just an amaz­ing sto­ry that the, the trip to Ham­burg day by day with that it’s a great, great read. And yeah, they were just these guys though, it start­ed — I mean George Har­ri­son, I think was thir­teen when he joined the Bea­t­les. So, you know, like, just when they were record­ing for Let it Be they must they must have been play­ing music for more than half their lives

Cameron  1:35:47

Togeth­er. And they still treat­ed George like the lit­tle broth­er. That was why he walked out right? They just still could­n’t take him seri­ous­ly.

Tony  1:35:55

Yeah.

Cameron  1:35:55

And also that line that I think you told me about a while back, where Paul’s not there and he says to John, you know, “I’ve got all these songs, I might just put out a solo album. And then we can come back and do the Bea­t­les thing.” And I was say­ing to Chris­sy I don’t think that had nev­er hap­pened before. Like, I think by the late 60s, no one had done that, you don’t go off and do a solo album and then come back and do anoth­er one with the band. So, it was real­ly, it was out — must have been crazy think­ing that he could even do that, and you know, as Paul said recent­ly, like how it would have changed if, if they’ve talked about that more. Maybe they could have done that and stuck togeth­er and done a solo album every year and then a Bea­t­les album every off year or some­thing.

Tony  1:36:37

Yeah, right, yeah.

Cameron  1:36:39

Any­way, we should wrap this up. But yeah, real­ly, real­ly the high­light, one of my high­lights of the year that doc­u­men­tary, seri­ous­ly.

Tony  1:36:46

I agree. I agree 100%. Yep.

Cameron  1:36:49

All right, mate. Well enjoy, enjoy your golf and talk to you next week.

Cameron  1:36:59

QAV Pod­cast is a pro­duc­tion of space craft pub­lish­ing Pro­pri­etary Lim­it­ed autho­rised rep­re­sen­ta­tive of AFSL 520442 AFS rep­re­sen­ta­tive num­ber 001292718. Please don’t make any invest­ment deci­sions based sole­ly on lis­ten­ing to this pod­cast. This is pre­sent­ed as gen­er­al advice only not per­son­al finan­cial advice. We don’t know your per­son­al finan­cial cir­cum­stances. Please see a finan­cial plan­ner before mak­ing any invest­ing deci­sions.