Welcome back to QAV, TK. This is Episode 440. Recorded on the fourth of October. 3 PM, Sydney time.
How has Gladys gone this week mate?
Well, she’s not fronting up to any press conferences. That’s for sure. I can’t say, Gladys you told us you weren’t going to do any more daily press conferences. You’ve been doing daily press conferences. We’re going to investigate you.
Corruption. Yes. That was shocking.
Very dramatic and I wonder whether she had to resign but anyway, that’s fine.
Yes. Well, then never a dull day in New South Wales?
No, and John Barilaro is gone now too and so is– What’s his name? Mr. Constance– Andrew Constance.
Yes, cleaning the cupboards.
Yes, clearing the decks.
ICAC is serious? Holy shit. What did we buy them off or something? I thought we had an arrangement.
That was begged the question, if they leave parliament, are they under the jurisdiction of ICAC anymore?
Question for the lawyers?
Let’s get straight into it, Tony. Stocks of the week. What do you want to talk about this week?
I want to talk about coal, dirty.
Yes, well, it’s been on the rise as we’ve seen from its commodities graph but after doing a download on the weekend, our stock of the week is New Hope Coal which is back on our buy list. It’s following its latest results.
This is Episode Four, A New Hope.
As people know, the underlying cause of the price is good for coal. I was asked a question about two or three weeks ago, should we be buying commodity stocks even if they’re not on the buy list if their underlying commodities are going up? And I thought it’s worth trying but we don’t have to do now because New Hope is back on the list and it has a QAV score of 0.12 and its share price has been going up quite quickly.
Getting quick people, it may not be around for much longer. If the share price keeps rising a lot, it may disappear off the buy list. If you want to buy a well-priced quality coal company, NHC is the one. Price to operating cash flow is getting up on the high end. It’s actually 6.94 when I did the analysis and that was done at a share price of $2.47 this morning being Monday the 4th. It could disappear quickly but it does have a quality score of 86% which is quite strong. The dividend is 4.5% which is again quite high for the market and it goes ex-dividend on the 25th of October.
This morning being Monday, the fourth, it could disappear quickly but it does have a quality score of 86% which is quite strong. The dividend is 4.5% which is again, quite high for the market and it goes ex-dividend on the 25th of October. If you’re buying it now, it will go ex-dividend on the 25th. A couple of weeks, it may drop in price but I’m not saying you should wait around to the 25th and buy that price drop. I’m likely to buy it this week because a couple of my stocks that I own have either just cross the sell line or getting very close to crossing a sell line and it’s probably be the stock I bought next because it does have a high average daily trade. Just can’t see the figure at the moment but certainly quite high.
If you’re buying it now, it will go ex-dividend on the 25th. A couple of weeks, it may drop in price but I’m not saying you should wait around until the 25th and buy that price drop. I’m likely to buy it this week because a couple of my stocks that I own have either just crossed the sell line or geting very close to crossing a sell line and this would probably be the stock I bought next because it does have a high average daily trade. Just can’t see the figure at the moment but certainly quite high.
It doesn’t score on the owner founder metric in our checklist. However, it does have 50% ownership either directly or indirectly by the Millner Company and for people who don’t know Robert Millner, he is the chairman of listed investment company called Washington Soul Pattinson and New Hope Coal was an investment by that listed investment company which was spun out on its own when it got big enough to do so and it’s continued on since then but Washington Soul still own a large chunk of it and then Robert Millner’s the chairman and I think one of his sons is on the board and they both own another percentage or so each of the shares.
They’re giving up very close to 50% ownership in the company. It doesn’t score on the owner founder because they wouldn’t have founded the mine.
Rob joined the board and bit the same as Warren Buffett did with Berkshire Hathaway said, look, I can make some more money by taking the cash right off by the chemist business and put it into other investments and that’s how the listed investment company took hold and it’s been pretty successful over the years as well.
They do have quite a bit of skin in the game which is a good thing. Dangerous thing about Rob Millner just as a quick tangent, he has been in the past sometimes called Australia’s Warren Buffett and I’ll leave it up to listeners to decide whether that’s a valid moniker or not but he became involved in the Chemist company, Washington Soul Pattinson and people will have seen Soul Pattinson chemists out there probably in their local neighborhoods and the Millner company have owned those for generations.
Getting back to the QAV score, financial health is strong and recovering in Stock Doctor. Listeners will recall that if it’s a recovering financial health score then we give it a two on the checklist. PE is 21, which is a record high. It gets a minus one for that but to be expected, given that it’s ramping up very quickly off a low base. Strong IV2 which people will recall is the future earnings per share over our hurdle rate and the IV2 for this stock is $7.87 when the share price is way below that at $2.47. It scores a checklist item on our checklist for being twice the IV2 price and also too, it’s not trading too higher than its net tangible assets. Net equity per share is $2.10 and it’s within book plus 30%.
All in all, yes, I think it’s quite an interesting investment and I’m glad to see it come back onto the buy list.
It doesn’t score on the owner founder metric in our checklist. However, it does have 50% ownership either directly or indirectly by the Millner Company and for people who don’t know Rob Millner, he is the chairman of listed investment company called Washington H. Soul Pattinson and New Hope Coal was an investment by that listed investment company which was spun out on its own when it got big enough to do so and it’s continued on since there but Washington Seoul still own a large chunk of it and then Rob Millner is the chairman and I think one of his sons is on the board and they both own another percentage or so each of the share. They’re getting up very close to 50% ownership in the company so it doesn’t score on the owner founder because they wouldn’t have founded the mine. They do have quite a bit of skin in the game which is a good thing.
You don’t have any qualms about buying a coal company?
I don’t. We talked about this in depth last year, I think but I think these companies or these problems are demand– Require demand driven solutions, not supply driven solutions and what I mean by that is, if we didn’t have this coal company in Australia or if Australia stopped mining coal, it just gets picked up by somebody else around the world. The problem doesn’t go away. It doesn’t solve anything except kill some jobs in Australia which I don’t think is a smart. I’m all for governments bringing in emissions targets and emissions net zero targets by 2050 but that’s the supply side controlling, that’s not the demand side.
And the way you’ve explained it to me in the past too is that us buying shares on the open market doesn’t have any impact on the success of the business unless you’re buying a new capital raising or you’re getting involved in a float. New Hope call doesn’t get any of our money if we buy shares on the market. It’s the person selling shares get the money.
Yes, I’m buying shares from the person who wants to shut down coal mine, potentially.
OK, what about a CVW, small cap stock?
Yes, it’s been stuck at the week before but I just wanted to make it our small cap stock of the week. I think it’s the highest small cap on our buy list this week after our download. That wasn’t a Josephine. Lots of Josephine’s this week. People might notice that themselves.
Think for a couple of reasons on the Josephine issue that it’s the start of the month. It’s going to be volatile in terms of whether the share price is by higher or lower than the end of last month. We knocked out a few when we’re doing our download but yes.
Clearview Wealth, we spoke about before, it’s an insurance company. There was actually an article on the Financial Review, I think the weekend before last which spoke about a potential– Being a potential takeover target because of its insurance operation. It’s largely now an insurance business. One of the last, if not the last originator of insurance product in Australia, all the other ones have been bought out by generally overseas companies which is looking to consolidate its scores hardly for us and it’s been going up tremendously since we first recommended it.
Yes, if people want to know more about CVW, they can go back and listen to our episode from a couple of weeks ago.
Oh, the Pandora papers came out today, Tony. I think one of the biggest leaks in the history of leaks. The International Committee of investigative journalists published it with a whole bunch of media outlets around the world. I think it’s run by an Aussie, the ICJJW, whatever it is. The LGBQTIJW. They do a tremendous job and there’s a bunch of Australians, according to the Financial Review in this latest leak with their hidden offshore companies and I didn’t see your name turn up in the Financial Review. That was that was a relief.
It is. Yes, it shouldn’t be a surprise. I wouldn’t do this stuff. I think it’s absolutely ludicrous.
Everyone who engages in this stuff says, I would never engage in this stuff except to the guy in Samoa that they’re hiding their money with including a Westpac director who’s on the committee to clean up the ethics of Westpac. It was in the financial review today.
Yes, well, you’re cleaning up bank ethics. I’m not sure if that makes them better or worse or from their point of view. That’s just crazy. I mean, you’re going to get caught. There’s always the part for a section of the Tax Act which is so sweeping that any attempt to not pay taxes is an illegal thing to do so. It doesn’t take long for a precedent to be set to something new. This is like the– What was it called? The Funseca that.
Yes, Mossack Fonseca. There was another set of papers for those. I’m trying to repeat the Panama Papers.
Panama Papers. We’ve also had the Pacific papers.
Paradise papers came out. No. Just in the last couple of years with these offshore companies. We had the Panama Papers as well or the– Sorry, the Pacific papers. Just talking about the Westpac guy, I read a quote that I posted on my life of Caesar podcast Facebook page. He was taken out of the Financial Review, just trying to grab it here. It was a great quote I liked. Yes, there was a quote from Jeffrey Wilson SC, a barrister director– A director of the Center for Public Integrity said, “Should someone have a Superfund in Samoa? I would have a gut reaction. Well of course not. A director of a bank is like Caesar’s wife. They have to appear above reproach.” You know the story about Caesar’s wife?
Caesar’s wife was seen not to be above reproach.
Yes, I do recall.
There was a guy called Claudius dressed up in woman’s clothing at a woman’s only secret cult meeting at Caesar’s house when Caesar wasn’t there and he said, I never touched her. Nothing went on but there was a rumor going around Rome that he was stooping Caesar’s wife so Caesar divorced his wife and said, Caesar’s wife must be above suspicion at all times.
And she said, hey, look, I’m just hanging out with girls. What’s– [Crosstalk 00:10:40].
OK, I just thought he was an ugly looking girl. I didn’t know.
Let’s talk about QAV and downturns, Tony because there’s a lot of articles hitting the media.
I posted one or two up on our Facebook page about the doom and gloom global markets are in for a bumpy ride in the days and months ahead according to the ABC, a combination of supply issues with shipping costs going up and then just ships not being able to move because of Delta. You’ve got the whole China evergrande financial concerns. You’ve got Delta just running havoc around the world. US Congress not able to agree on anything and they’re going to run out of money in a couple of weeks as usual.
All things going on out there and of course, as you said, a couple of weeks ago on the show, historically, crashes happened in October. Although there’s no real science behind why that would be except I think you talked about going away and coming back in the US but I wanted to point out for new listeners, the people that weren’t with us, when we went through the COVID cough last year, QAV actually does well, it helps us thrive through downturns and in fact, we love downturns. We don’t love them because they have a terrible effect on people’s livelihoods and their jobs and their savings and it’s a negative thing for many people. It’s not like we’re celebrating but in terms of investing, it’s actually a good time to be investing if you have rules that guide you through the both the downturn to minimize losses and also how to get in quickly when it turns around.
The three-point trend line is meant to help us sell high and buy low. It won’t get us out at the top of the market but it’ll get us out at the top of the way down and it won’t get us in at the bottom of the market but it’ll get us in at the bottom of the turn up. We’ll miss the top 10-20% of either turns but we’ll get out and we’ll get back in at the right times and that’s the essence of investing. It’s sell high.
I don’t recommend that. I’ve tried selling high and I just ended up listening to Pink Floyd and watching the Wizard of Oz. Just get distracted really easy. Yes, what was I doing there? I had the benefit and the experience, the adventure of working on QAV with you through the COVID cough last year and it was really enlightening and also assuring and calming to know, OK, well, I don’t need to panic. I don’t need to worry. There’s– We just follow the rules.
Yes and that’s the real– I mean, OK, so the beauty of it is a set of rules so we can take our emotions out of it but that’s the beauty is taking the emotions out of it because if you remember back to the COVID cough, the market turned down, everything was shutting down. No one knew how many deaths were going to happen, there was forecast out that there could be a million people dying in Australia, and it was complete doom and gloom and then people were asking us, OK, we sold out when do we buy back here? And how long did the GFC take? And I said, well GFC took 18 months to two years to buy back and we could be sitting on the sidelines for a while here and but then, within about a month, maybe six weeks, we’re starting to buy back in so I never saw that coming. I could never forecast any of that but the numbers told us to do it and it worked out well for us.
For new folks out there. It’s not a scary thing. I guess I put it that way for me with QAV. It’s not a scary thing.
And it’s a fact of life. I mean, if I think about the times I’ve been invested from the long term management capital debt crash, the Asian financial crash, the emerging countries financial crash, that Greek default 911, Iraq one, Iraq War Two, the list goes on and on. Markets go through ups and downs, you just have to have a framework for dealing with it.
I thought you’re going to add marketing the Messiah to your list of great tragedies. They’re right there.
Trade down for it.
Yes, the Titanic [Inaudible 00:14:37].
Speaking of downturns, your stock of the week last week was Myer and you said you might want to sell it if you hold it and I jokingly said, Don’t jinx it. Well, you jinxed it.
Yes, sorry about.
What happened to my Myer, Tony?
I still haven’t really worked it out completely logically anyway but Wilson asset management which is Led by Jeff Wilson sold off part of his stake and this is a bit of an old fund manager tricks that people should be aware of that you only have to notify the ASX when you buy and sell shares if you’re an insider or if you hold more than 5% of the market cap. Wilson asset management has sold down from seven back to five and the trick is that then lets them sell the other five whenever they like without having to notify the market about what they’re doing. That can be an advantage to also an asset management but yes, they’ve sold the 2% they had or roughly 2% they had above 5%.
Their stated reason for doing that was its share price has doubled since they bought it which is true just as it has for QAV listeners who we’ve bought in when it appeared on the buy list first of all and Wilson, as I mentioned, I want to take some profits. Other than that and the fact that they sold a big block actually did lower the share price. You can’t go out into the market and ask for someone to buy 2% of the company and not often have a discount to the current share price. That was one reason why the share price dropped.
But other than that people have been trying to read into it, oh it’s good for Solomon Lew, it’s bad for Solomon Lew. It’s good for Myer, it’s bad for Myer. It’s just one guy selling 2% of the shares. It’s like what? 2% of the market cap selling your shares. It wasn’t a big deal to Wilson asset management. They’ve got over a billion dollars invested in various companies and Myer wasn’t a material part of that holding for them and I don’t think is a big deal for Myer.
The big lesson I think out of all of this as the Jeff Wilson obviously listens to this show. When you picked it, he was like, oh, I’m out and sold it straightaway. Thanks a lot, Jeff.
Yes, quite possibly. Yes, watch out for New Hope Coal and for Clearview Wealth.
Well, I just checked New Hope Coal’s already down 0.41% since this morning. Wherever the show hasn’t even gone out yet, it’s already taken effect. I tell you, they’ve bugged your offices, someone’s bugged your offices.
Let’s talk about SDG if we can. It went ex-dividend last Thursday. I was going to sell it. I own it in one of my portfolios, I was going to sell it as a real one until I realized the dividend and thank you to whoever it was on our Facebook group recently who pointed out that there’s a feature in Stock Doctor where you can add dividends to the advanced charting so it’ll appear right there. It’s very easy to spot the dividend and it gives you the details of when it went x and when it was paid. That’s very helpful but I still was a little bit unsure about the calculation, I ended up figuring it was probably above it sell line if I factored the dividend back in.
Can you walk me through again, just how to do that properly? I got a little bit lost in the franking part of it.
Usually, there are cases where a company hasn’t made money but it has paid a dividend out of its reserves from its balance sheet– The cash it holds on its balance sheet but they generally paid from profits and generally, those profits have already had 30% tax paid on them and the law in Australia is that when you receive a dividend from an Australian company that’s paid tax, then you get a credit for the tax it’s already paid. It’s coming to you as a share of an untaxed profit of the company and then it’s up to your financial status, how you’re taxed on that basis but it’s basically like saying, you’re an employee and you get paid a gross amount of dollars but then they take tax out, you’re getting a tax back and then they’ll take tax out when you put your tax return in. It’s like a two-step process for you.
What I do is to add that tax back in to work out what the gross payment is to me when I’m working out how much to add back to the price to take into account the effect of the dividend and I do that by dividing by 0.7, the dividend per share by 0.7 and that adds 30% back to the dividend price.
OK, divide by 0.7.
Yes, which adds 30% back the dividend price. Can I just walk through SDG with you because I am not sure if I follow your numbers? I’m just going to call it up in Stock Doctor. If you look at the– There’s a dividend page in Stock Doctor which is along the second of the command lines on the front page, says DIV and that tells me that dividend was x date was the 14th of September that paid on the 30th of September. It was a four cents per share dividend which prices up to I think about 5.7 cents per share.
Well, I got 20 cents a share. I only got four cents a share.
Yes, this is a trick. Go into the dividend page. You’ve got the annual amount you need the half amount. Oh no, sorry. No, I’m wrong. Sorry. There was a special dividend paid on the 14th of September as well. 16 cents. Sorry, you’re right. I got that wrong. There were two dividends paid on the 14th of September totaling 20 cents.
Right. How much of that you get is going to depend on how long you’ve owned the shares?
You do have to hold the share for 45 days to claim the franking credit. That’s the law so you’ve got a test for that which– But if you held the share on the 14th of September, you got 20 cents a share.
OK, good. I did get 20 cents a share. I would take that 20 cents and divide it by 0.7. That give me 285, 0.285 and the price at the time was 238. 2.38 plus 0.285 gives me 2.665. I had the sell at the time of about $2.
Hang on. Let me just take stock there. The calculation should be– The sell price should have dividend taken off. One reason why I’m confused is I have a very low sell price for Sunlands. I’m not even sure what you’re doing that.
Yes, I’m not sure either. Now, I’ve just pulled it out. I’ve got a sell price of around about $2.20.
Got one even lower, $70.
But it was a rule. One is what I said.
OK, what’s your rule on pricing [Crosstalk 00:20:53]?
I don’t know.
You need to take the grossed up dividend off yourself in rule one price is what I’m saying.
Yes, I’ll take it off or add it to–
Take it off. You’re selling it for a lower price because you’ve got the dividend back. In other words, if the sell price was $2 on the share and it dropped after it went ex-dividend but then you add back the dividend per share, you’re above the sell price or if you take off the dividend per share from the sell price, the share price is above the sell price.
I bought it at $2.67.
It had come back, I think 10% below that. It triggered my rule one alert.
Which is going to be about 26 cents off that so it’s going to be around $2.40.
And I figured I had a dividend coming.
Yes. Take it off $2.40.
Take it off?
Yes, because you wanted the sell to be at the lower price because you’ve got–
Oh, you’re working out the sell, right? OK, what I’m doing, I’m thinking the other way around. I’m going well, it says the current price is $2.40 but I’m actually getting 268 for it because I’ve got a dividend.
Oh right, yes. Sorry. You can. [Crosstalk 00:21:53].
Either way, it would have stayed just above my buy price.
OK, got you.
What is it today?
The only other comment I want to make after confusing everyone, sorry about that, is I think that dividends have been paid now.
The price today is 241, still.
And that’s above your sell price.
By one cent just OK.
That’s generally what I do is when the dividend gets paid, I don’t deduct it from my price calculations.
But what I’m finding with a couple of the shares I hold now is they’re taking a bit longer to turn back up. I’m not sure if the investors who want dividends and franking credits are waiting for 45 days, we have to wait for 45 days or what but I am seeing just as called out.
In most halves and every other half, I can think of the dividends rebound before you get paid but this time sell off is hanging around a bit which could be a part of what we talked about before the markets getting sketchy or it could be because people are waiting 45 days before they sell to get their franking credits. I’m not sure.
Well, according to Stock Doctor, the car price is– My investment in is down 2.25% from when I bought it. It’s well like my 10%.
Even with all of that taken into account. I’m going to have to do a spreadsheet so I don’t have to try and remember how to do this every time.
Let’s talk about AMI, if we can, because when we spend three hours this morning talking about Josephine. It was insane. Yes, I told people when I published the list today in Facebook, for people who didn’t see that for our club buy list– The full buy lists each week.
Starting next week, we’re not going to filter out the Josephine’s or even really list the Josephine’s because what we found over the last couple of weeks in doing that is we’ll spend our entire weekends doing the buy list based on the closing price on Friday and then by lunchtime Monday, things have moved. Some things that weren’t Josephine’s have become Josephine, some things that have were Josephine’s on Sunday by lunchtime Monday and then we’re frantically trying to rejigged the whole thing and you said to me, well, look, this is ridiculous. Just tell everyone to do what I do which is, before you buy it, just check if it’s a Josephine. If it’s having a down day, don’t buy it.
I think that makes sense both from the point of view of it’s a big workload doing it for the full buy list of nearly 100 stocks and doing it manually for those. Trying to do it in an automated sense but then you really struggle to get the rules right for that and we haven’t landed on that square yet. Yes, I mean, I’ve never made it part of my download before and I think it’s fine to take it out and just make it a part of the buying process.
Yes, I mean, we already tell people check the price before you buy because it might have moved. It’s just part of that but let’s talk about AMI Aurelia Metals because this is one that we went over a bit chat this morning and I know that our thinking on Josephine’s is fluid at the moment but this was an instructive one. If people pull up a AMI chart if you’re sitting at your desk and if not just imagine it, just do a Queen’s game but stare up at the ceiling and you’ll be able to see it appears for you. Apparently that’s how it works.
Well, we can make a quick description of the AMI graph. It’s one of those graphs where the highest point is in the middle. It rose dramatically for a couple of years and then it’s been falling for a couple of years. It’s had a couple of peaks on the way down so like it’s– You can draw almost like a tropical along the tops, a straight line across all the tops of the peaks. It hasn’t broken above that, hasn’t reached that sell line yet but it’s very clear.
You know how I describe it? It’s a Gladys. That’s what it is. It had a peak a couple of years ago. It was looking really strong and then it’s fallen a long way from that peak and a couple of little bumps along the way and now it’s plummeting. Its credibility is plummeting. It’s just got a little tick up at the end here probably because it’s resigned and it’s like, oh, I don’t have to worry about presses– Doing presses every morning talking about COVID cough. Thank God for that. Somebody else’s problem now. That’s what it is. It’s a Gladys. Told you I was going to work that into something today, didn’t I?
Yes, you did. Yes, people can think of it as being like an upside down V and on the way down to the V, there’s a couple of peaks before it gets to the bottom.
The problem that we had this morning was you had it as a Josephine. I didn’t and my argument for it not being a Josephine is that it closed to September at 30 cents. This morning, it’s at 32 cents. It’s picked up a little bit. I was asking the question and I think somebody else has asked this recently too, when do we come out of a Josephine? It’s a falling knife. It has been as you said, more or less consistently since March 2019. It’s popped up a few times, have rebounded after COVID, back down up a bit back down. How do we know when to buy back in? Obviously, it’s not any uptick because you still classified it as a Josephine this morning and then you reminded me of the second buy line rule or fudge or whatever.
Yes, well, it’s not really a rule. It’s just the working hypothesis at the moment. I think it’s worthwhile pointing out, if you use the buy line follows the sell line. Aurelia Metals has been a buy for a while because prior to the COVID cough, there was a sell on the way down towards the COVID cough but then you draw a buy line after that which means a sell line gets redrawn using the COVID cough’s l2 and even though the share price went all the way back up to about 55 cents after the COVID cough, it’s back down to 32 today and it’s sell price is about 28.
It’s just been declining since the upturn after the COVID cough. That’s why I call it a Josephine. It’s in a– I mean, you can see it just using common sense. It’s in a falling knife situation. It’s trending down towards its buy line. However, as you point out in the last couple of days, it’s been an uptrend. Our sell line, sorry. In the last couple of days has been an uptrend.
What I said I often do in these situations to try and confirm an uptrend is to draw a new buy line. It’s like– If you were approaching this from fresh and we’re just using h1 as the highest peak in h2 was the next highest peak to the right, you draw a buy line and h2 would have been one of the intermediate peaks at July 2020 and you can see a peak to the right of that. You redraw using h2 at May 21 and that buy line gives you a buy price of around 36 cents and it’s been a working hypothesis of mine. I guess a bit of a fairly unrigorous test but anyway, I would consider that Aurelia. Sorry, it was back into a non-Josephine state if it went above that 36 cents.
What we’re going to have to call it? A Napoleon state.
A Napoleon State.
Has to break through the Napoleon line if Josephine wants to get it on. She’s got to break through Napoleon, he’s got to agree to it. That’s the Napoleon line.
Up until now, Napoleon’s been dressing up as a girl and going into Josephine’s sewing circle.
No, he was just going on campaign and sleeping with mistresses in Poland. Right.
I haven’t done enough research on this. I’ve certainly found cases where it doesn’t apply and we spoke about that a bit this morning with– If you look at the Fortescue Metals graph, it’s one of those graphs that go from the low to the left to higher to the right. It’s very hard to draw a recent buy line on that one until the very end, when you hit a high peak and then the lower peak to the right because on the way up, it just kept having high peaks to the right.
You can do it when it turned down as they all do. The stock price graph isn’t going to go straight up or at an even 45-degree angle, it’s always going to have bumps and rises but my only hard and fast rule is not to buy things on a day when they downturn because you don’t know if it’s going to be the start of a downtrend or not.
Yes, right. I got another question about FMG actually which I added to the last minute, might as well skip to it now.
Caroline on Facebook happened to mention that she had been doing the same exercise that you talked about on the show last week looking at the top 20, working out which one of the top 20 is the biggest gap with the IV2 and she identified FMG but she said, you din’t mention when do you buy back in. You didn’t mention anything about looking at sentiment and you didn’t talk about iron ore sentiment either. In a case like FMG, when would you buy that would the normal rules apply?
Well, good question. I mean, to be honest, I haven’t. The champion challenger philosophy for me hasn’t really taken those things into account and I stopped doing it myself. I’m just doing it because people ask questions about it and I need to back test it so it’ll be good to have data to go back and back test it and see if it beats QAV or not.
Top of my head, answering that question I would say yes, wait for the the upturn because otherwise it could go lower, you need to mitigate your risk and if it does go lower, Fortescue Metals will just become cheaper in terms of its difference to IV2, I would have thought the gap gets bigger.
Yes, repeat all that. When would you buy it?
When the underlying commodity turns up or Fortescue metals turns up. Right, and that’s one of the questions we have later on to talk about so we can talk about now if you like or we can talk about it later. Yes, someone asked when do we buy back?
Last one of my questions. BSE, I know we talked about this again this morning but instructive BSE, Base Resources Chart. I found really hard and you walk me through some interesting thinking this morning.
BSE on Brett’s chart just to say quickly is a– Was at 28 cents a share. I’m not sure if it’s actually– Well, I think it needs to be double checked in Stock Doctor without any disrespect to Brett or his coding but if I call it up. If you recall Google Finance handles, doesn’t handle decimal points as well as Stock Doctor does in our graph. I’ve got BSE just touching its buy line now and above its sell line and the reason for that the way I draw the buy line is highest point is 32 and 13 cents away back in October 2017 but then February 2021 is just slightly below that so we use that because it’s within 8% and then August 2021 is still within 8% as well but if you use August 2021 being last month we can’t draw up a buy line. There’s no second thing so then we go back to the H1 before that, which was February 2021 and draw a buy line from there.
Because we were talking about the fact that this also was a Josephine, it—
Finished August 31.5 cents. It finished September at 26 cents but now it’s currently at 28 cents so it’s getting back up and I was asking you, well, how do we draw the buy line that it has to pass through before it’s a buy and you said, well, we have to go back and draw correct—
The most recent line we can.
Yes, and because we’ve also got this one with the flat line between February and August. We can’t use August so we have to go back and then if we draw that buy line it is in fact on that buy line so we decided it was probably a buy this morning.
Yes, just crossing the buy line. It’s down nearly 2% today so it might fall below it before people hear this but it’s right on its buy line.
Right. Got to go backwards. It had a dividend too, four cents though recently but it’s been paid 29 of the night. Right.
Yes, right and it could be why it’s turning up again a little bit. Yes, interesting dividend season. I don’t normally see drops keep going after the dividends being paid so potentially could be the start of a downtrend but who knows that’s only a thought and prediction.
All right. Thanks for that. Let’s talk about Santos. What’s going on at Santos, TK?
Yes, last week, the oil price started to rise and it was only for about a day or two that I managed to buy Santos because I thought the sell on bad news had gone away. I held Santos. I think we may have held Santos in the dummy portfolio.
I hold it. I bought it last week too.
OK, but we sold it when the results were announced and they also announced at the same time a merger with oil search and other oil company and the share price tanked based on that news so like I said that was a sell rule. It was a sell on bad news but the question remains it was still in its buy territory given its buy line and given us a QAV score. When do we buy back in and I jumped the gun last week and bought him before it got back to that second buy line and I thought I spoke about before I was speaking about a really Aurelia Metals on the basis that I couldn’t find any other large cap stock that had the right ADT for me to buy in. I bought Santos and luckily it’s gone up from there and unfortunately, by the time it has got back into that second peak buy line which to me is a signal that the trends back into an uptrend. The share price has meant that the QAV scores fall off the buy list. I just wanted to call that out that with Santos, the “sell on bad news” was being removed.
Yes. Well, it’s up I think a percent since I bought it last week. I’m glad I got it.
Yes, and we’ll talk a little bit about oil later on today.
Talk about the progress on your 4e campaign.
Well, the progress is slow. As Steve Mabb from the ASA, The Australian Shareholders Association has quite nicely agreed to take it up as an issue with the ASA and he’s going to present it to them and hopefully they’ll take it up with the ASX which should carry more weight than they just write into the ASX myself but in a nutshell, we spoke about it before 4e is where companies– Every company listed on the ASX has to answer a list of I think about 17 questions from the ASX. Every half companies have gotten a little bit sloppy on answering those questions, especially at the lower end of that list.
One of the questions at the end of the list is have the financials been audited? And then another question is, was the audit qualified in any way? And the third question was, if the company hasn’t had the figures auditor yet, do they believe that the audit will be qualified?
Generally, what people do is just say refer to the annual report. Some companies do answer the question properly and the full answer is, yes, the annual accounts have been audited and they haven’t been qualified in any way but a lot of people will just say, yes, they’ve been audited and then I guess, a small number– Because there are only a small number with qualified audits, actually do say, the audits have been qualified but I guess my point that, I’d like the ASA to campaign on is the fact that 4e is meant to be a quick way of looking at whether– What the key metrics are for a company? And for me, the one of the biggest key metrics is do the auditor think the companies are going concern or not.
If we have to continue to wait for the annual report and then wait through the audit report ourselves. First of all, find that with a text search and then go through and find the correct wording. It’s a time consuming thing to do. It’s not overly difficult, but it’s just a time consuming thing to do. When other people did or answer the appendix 4e properly, we could just simply search on that and even then the next stage is the, it would be really helpful if the ASX set up some searchable database for companies that had a healthy audit report versus those that didn’t.
And we’re going to call this the Kynaston Clause in the 4e. Have you completed your Kynaston clause?
In which case I’ll be on the dart boards of every company [Inaudible 00:36:32] in the country?
Could be worse. Talk to me about RIC.
Yes, after doing a download recently, there’s a three or four stocks which I’ll call getting quick stocks and the reason I’m calling them out is at the bottom of the QAV buy list, RIC was the one that stuck out to me and if you look at the share price graph for it, it’s going up quickly and a bit like Santos you don’t get in quick. They’ll drop off the buy list and we may have missed out on buying what was a good company at a good price.
A couple of interesting things about Ridley cooperation. One is that the chairman is now the ex CEO of Ingham’s Chicken. Guy called Mick McMahon and for disclosure here I knew Mick from my time at Shell and Coles Myer and he’s a pretty savvy bloke. I think he knows what he’s doing but I thought it was interesting as well that he’s gone from being the CEO of Ingham’s chicken to the chairman of a company called Ridley which makes feed for chickens for poultry as well as for cattle as well.
That twigged that he knew what was going on in the industry. Reminded me of an article I read recently on Livewire which is very good about what this analyst called book deals and I wish I could remember who wrote it. Apologies to them because he did say in the article that people keep ripping off his idea without attributing it to it and I’m doing it now because I can’t recall the guy’s name but it’s on live or if you want to find it but he said that a book deal was something to watch for because just like a politician who finishes office, they write a book, they get a book deal. They write a book and it is like a superannuation payment for them and when the CEO resigns, they generally look around their industry and goes where’s the best place to prop myself up as chairman because I know the industry so well that this is another company to parachute into and I think this might be the case with really and I haven’t spoken to Mick for a long time so I don’t know if that’s his thinking.
I don’t want to cast any aspersions his way but yes this is potentially a book deal for somebody who knows the industry well but anyway, it’s on the QAV buy list. Last time I looked, it had a score of 0.11 so it may not last. A couple of other ones in the same boat. Not in terms of book deals but in terms of getting quick stocks. Katmandu had good results and PPG, packaging company also had good results and entered our buy list and may not last because the share prices are going up quickly.
Get in quick stocks. Starting to sound like who’s that guy on American TV? He’s always pumping gold and stuff. Crazy dude has the big red buzzer.
I know the guy name.
The CEO of FMG is sold some of her stock. What’s her name again? Elizabeth.
Gaines. Yes, I just found it interesting, again. I think I read it somewhere, maybe in Livewire as well. She sold $9 million worth of stock and again, it just gave me the thought that Twiggy forests, the chairman ex CEO must know the iron ore market inside and out and for the last couple of years Fortescue Metals has been paying an incredibly high dividend. I think the yield got up to at least 10%, maybe higher and I suspect that’s his way of taking money off the table and he’ll pocket it and then buy back in and increase his stake in Fortescue Metals when he thinks the price is going to rebound.
It’s possible that Elizabeth Gaines is also doing that. I’m not sure if there are reasons for selling. Sometimes they say they’re selling for tax reasons or to buy a house or whatever but it just didn’t make me think that these insiders who know the iron ore market well are taking money off the table. Potentially to buy back in later on and that might be a good indicator of when it’s time to buy back into—
How would you know?
And all stocks.
Well, they have to declare as we spoke about before inside here when they buy or sell.
We’ll be looking at iron ore price though, right? The commodity price.
Yes, we’ll be looking at sentiment.
That’ll probably be an indicator.
It will be comforting to know that Twiggy’s buying back in when we do.
All right. Winter is coming.
Yes. Another interesting article I read recently. In the US, as you know that the Fed reserve or the their equivalent of the RBA, the Reserve Bank board is made up of different state Fed chiefs and they will have– Each state has its own privilege to the Reserve Bank board and the Chiefs all get together and form the Federal Reserve but two of the members of the Fed, a guy called Kaplan and a guy called Rosengren, both sell out of all their shares in the recent month or so, especially for Kaplan that he was doing it because he’d been copying some flack about owning shares when he was the Fed Reserve Board member, which was fair enough, right? You should know what the economy’s doing and you need to be impartial. You shouldn’t be thinking about what’s going to be best for your stock when you’re making decisions on interest rates. Arguably one of the reasons why they’ve been kept low for a long time now but anyway, he wore the criticism for a long time but now he sold it on the basis of it being an ethical decision that he should have sold them a while ago.
On the prima facie that sounds like it’s the right thing to do. However, this was a guy who bought, I think it was $28 million worth of shares following the COVID cough so he knows exactly what he’s doing. Right now, I’m not going to– I don’t want to impugn any motives to him and good on him for selling his shares if it’s seen as a conflict of interest but to me, it’s–
The opposite thing [Inaudible 00:41:27]. I want these guys to have skin in the game like the CEO of a company. I want them to have lots of shares.
Well, no, because then they just hold interest rates down forever. The share market keeps going up until the PE is like 100 or two.
For the market and eventually someone takes the trash out.
OK, just another indicator that potentially things are not looking good.
But again, I’ll just reiterate for folks that are new. For us, there is no good times or bad times. In terms of investors, it’s all the same. We look for opportunities in the moment we get in and get out when the Bible tells us to. Well, the Bible [Crosstalk 00:42:00].
Yes, we’re talking about my analysis and my predictions and my gossip here but it’s really something.
Just ignore everything Tony just said, doesn’t matter.
Just ignore everything I said for the last half hour.
Yes. Livewire said that 7% of the world’s companies are founder-led which is surprisingly low, really like the world’s companies, the publicly listed companies or just companies companies?
Couldn’t tell whether it just had the world’s companies. Couldn’t tell whether they were listed or not. You would think unlisted would have a lot more information?
Small, medium sized businesses would all founder-led. You would imagine.
Yes, you think so? Yes.
The point I wanted to raise was, I did a quick count of the checklist and I think the buy list has about 51% companies on it with a founder-led. I think that was interesting. I know, that’s one metric. I might do some research and see how we compare to the index for a lot of those metrics as well which is interesting I think.
And this would be because if we find a company that’s where the founder has a large chunk of stock, it gets a good score and has got a better chance of ending in our buy list.
Yes. Buy list.
OK, my thinking is that we can see that we’re overweight on this metric. If I look at the index across all metrics, there’s maybe another metric there that we’re overweight, that we are overweight on which I haven’t put into the checklist yet. If we find that, that might be a good addition but bit of work to do today.
Well, let’s talk about oil. It’s going up.
It’s going up. Yes, and people who have read articles in the UK about long lines at petrol stations and– Or the Communist Party in China telling energy companies to buy coal at any cost to keep the power stations running during winter. Yes, that bodes well for companies like New Hope Coal but the point I wanted to make was, not just that gas and coal are rising but I mean, the risk with it is that it’s just a northern hemisphere winter situation because there’s still a large number of power stations over there which are run by either coal or natural gas and the oil price tends to form in lockstep with natural gas prices and it’s natural.
I actually did some research on the weekend, it’s actually the natural gas price which is going up at an even stronger pace than the oil price but a lot of contracts for oil are actually tied to the natural gas price.
I also found out after doing a bit of research to which I should have known beforehand, that Santos is predominantly a natural gas exporter rather than being just an oil company which historically it’s been an oil company but it’s obviously growing more on natural gas space as well. That’s why it’s taken off recently as well.
Yes, the point to make I just wanted to make is that this can just be a seasonal thing that the oil price is going up and coal prices going up but either way again, we’ll look at the commodity trend lines when it’s time to sell. The northern hemisphere, obviously the reverse of us but it’s also the reverse of the Southern Hemisphere in another way.
Our power stations have increased usage in summer for us because people turn on their air conditioners like in winter, most of the country outside of Tasmania, maybe Melbourne couldn’t care less they just– They’re not stocking their furnace or putting on their heating. There’s no draw on the power stations as much as there is in the Northern Hemisphere when it’s– Was working Toronto was 20 below zero. If you weren’t running burners in a couple of parts of your house, you froze so it’s a big draw on power stations in winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
Yes, I think that’s all the news items we had for this week, Tony. The chit chat.
On to the questions.
On to the questions. This first one is from the other TK. TK Woolley on Facebook asked a couple of days ago, does anyone understand why BXB and ANN are dropping so far and quickly. You familiar with either of these stocks, Tony?
I am. Brambles and Ansell and I mean this might be some hangover shares from the TK Woolley holds but the first question is, why you’re holding them?
I think Brambles is on a QAV score of 0.05 and Ansell’s is on a QAV score of 0.01.
To go back a long way, particularly Brambles. Brambles was the CSL of 20 years ago, right? It couldn’t do a thing wrong. It traded on a high PE. Had a rock star CEO, a guy called John Fletcher who then went across to run Coles Myer. People would buy Brambles as a cornerstone of their portfolio the way they buy CSL as a cornerstone of a portfolio now.
If you just wanted to buy blue chips in the market and once something with a good growth profile but I mean, Brambles came a Cropper, I remember it famously going through a big downturn and what happens with high PE stocks is what always happens with high PE stocks. When they have a hiccup on growth, they revert back to a more normal PE and if you’re trading on a PE of 45, or something, you’re 50, which I think Brambles was and it drops back to 20. It’s cyanide to the share price. It’s like Claudius at the Caesar party. It just causes the share price to drop dramatically. If I got the metaphors along with that.
Claudius was an emperor. No, Clodus.
Yes, it causes the share price to drop down dramatically and Brambles, I think has struggled a bit since then but Ansell is a maker of–
Condoms, which I don’t need to worry about anymore.
Rubber. Latex is the word I’m thinking of. You’re sitting on peas today. Are you?
Not today, but I was over the weekend. Yes.
Is that why you had all day to work on the Josephine yesterday?
Yes. Could not move off the lounge with my peas. Oh my God.
And that’s because?
I had a vasectomy on Saturday morning. Everyone wanted to know that. Just to let everyone know, wasn’t as bad as I thought. It was 100 times worse. It was extremely painful. They gave me a local. The surgeon started cutting and snipping. Apologies if you’re eating lunch. I went, Oh, that really hurts and he said, I might have to give you another couple of shots of the local there. Are you normally resistant to local anesthetic? And I said, well, now that you come to mention and whenever I see the dentist, he has to give me two or three times the dose he normally gives people so he hit me another couple of times and the pain reduced to a roar and then he started on the other side five minutes later.
He gave me another couple of shots on that side too but it took every meditation trick in the book to lie there not and grab a scalpel and stab both of them to death man and hurt like hell. Hasn’t been so bad after the events. I got to say it hasn’t been too bad but during, Oh.
Well, your kids thank you because now you don’t have to spread the QAV inheritance. [Inaudible 00:48:27].
Yes. Look, honestly, I just kept thinking of the things all my wives have been through with contraception and childbirth and I was thinking, hey, be a man. Take it. Grit your teeth and Take it. How did we get on to that?
Latex. That’s right. They’re a latex maker. I couldn’t think of the word for latex. I was trying not to say condom but because they make more than condoms, right? They make rubber gloves and which is just PPA and things like that. Yes, but again, QAV score points are 0.01, reasonably high PE stock but anyway, look to give a general answer to TK Woolley’s question. The way I would check this kind of thing happening is if you go into Stock Doctor and look at the ex-dividends as we did before for Sunland group, SDG and see if the dividend was behind it. Oftentimes a big drop is when the share goes ex-dividend.
That was partly the case here but then if you go into the announcements page of Stock Doctor, you can see there’s a column in the middle which gives you the price that after the announcement was made and it only gets recorded for price sensitive announcements, but for both Brambles and Ansell. Brambles went down 10% after they did the investor briefing day on their future plan, that went down like a lead balloon and Ansell dropped 10% on the day that they released their results on the 24th of August. I dare say that that’s probably the reason for both of those two events plus a bit going ex-dividend and then both of those two things would have been digested by analysts over the following weeks and would be willing that trend down probably.
Right. Dividends and announcements, price sensitive announcements.
But don’t hold those stocks there. Maybe look at these legacy stocks in TK Woolley’s portfolio but they generally have problems.
Well, Stewart had asked a question about the chairman of Ridley buying 400,000 shares.
Yes, just to answer that question though from Stewart, he asked whether that particular buy would be a reason to pump up Ridley’s QAV score? And it’s not because I looked up the shareholdings of the board and management and the less than I think they’re 1% so much less than 10%. There’s no founder holder which means we wouldn’t increase our share. Not saying that seeing the chairman by that much in shares isn’t a good thing. Like I said before with tricky for us it’s a good sign, but it’s not part of our process.
Thank you Stewart for the question. OK.
Brett, inventor of the Brettalator. I’m wondering if Tony can do an overview on how we use the commodities trends? I think I may have missed some points along the way because I was so busy building the Brettalator. You’re welcome everyone.
No, he didn’t say that, I’m just putting words in the Brett’s mouth there.
Couple of questions. One, we say iron ore is a 3PTL sell but on a monthly five-year chart, I have it still in a buy position despite the huge fall because the sell line is so low. Do we use a shorter term chart for commodities? I checked the Bible which says we use the five-year monthly chart.
Yes, we did use a shorter term one for iron ore. I think it was for memory, the only commodity we did that for all of the other ones had on like long enough trends to still make their five year monthly charts relevant. I think we spoke about this quite a while ago but with iron ore, I did do a fair bit of research on whether it was better to use the five-year chart or whether to use a shorter time period based on the commodity cycle and what I did with iron ore was I went back to the last time it was a buy for when it was a buy which is the start of this cycle and drew the line from there. It’s basically a fudge iron ore.
You were starting like April 2020 for L1?
And by the way, I’m using TR#. Whenever that character’s called. Hash, I guess. Yes, I was using April 2020 as l1 and then it goes through November 2020 and you can see from the chart in this particular case, there’s another peak before that in 2019, July 2019, which I think was probably the last time the commodity cycle peaked for iron ore and it fell back. Yes, I was using that as the buy line using that as h1 to give me the start of a new cycle.
OK, next part of Brett’s question. In the most recent episode, Tony said he would buy back in if either the commodity or the company became the buy. Would he really buy if the commodity was a buy but the company was a sell? This is what you were alluding to earlier.
Yes, good question Brett. I would probably wait for the company to turn back and that’s just because there might be something else going on in the company that is affecting its share price besides the underlying commodity. My gut feels and I guess my experiences though, that the company will turn before the commodity because just like it did with coal. If the stock market is forward looking indicator so as soon as people start to get clear in their minds that they think the coal market might be improving they started to buy New Hope Coal and the other coal companies. We don’t buy them now and I don’t like buying them until they become a three-point buy so like I said, we miss out on the first rise in the share price but when we buy them we know the sentiment’s pretty strong and I think it’s a confirmed sentiment rather than one that might turn down again easily.
Just to be clear on that, you’re saying that even if the commodity became a buy, if the company was not a buy, you still wouldn’t buy it?
I don’t think so. I mean, I think there’d be as a general rule. No and it’s horses for courses. This reminds me a bit of the banks back in last year when their QAV scores became compelling but they still weren’t in a buy territory for us and we gave up finished up giving up quite a bit of their upturn waiting for them to get to the buy line and if Fortescue Metals turned up 10-20% but hadn’t reached the buy line but iron ore had reached the buy line, I might still buy it.
And then I bought into the banks and then had to sell them a couple of weeks later [Inaudible 00:54:37].
[Crosstalk 00:54:40] I think it’s buy again.
It’s horses for courses so you would look at both of those things and make a judgment call.
Yes, but I would think that as a general rule, yes, I want the commodity price being a three-point buy situation and I want the underlying company being in a three-point buy situation.
- Third part of Brett’s question. What is the approach for the companies that have been above the buy and sell lines right through? e.g. GRR, CIA, RIO, BHP all scoring well. Are we just waiting for the short term uptrend?
Waiting for the commodity price to turn around and become an uptrend. Whether that’s short term or long term? I have no idea.
The iron ore price has risen a little bit. Makes up 10, 15% I think from its lows, but does that mean it’s going to continue or not? I don’t know. Yes, but if you look at GRR, interesting question, we certainly did the right thing in selling out. It’s dropped back a lot that has Fortescue metals by the way, which is 1450 last time I had a look at it and but GRR hasn’t turned around again. We might get a situation when we get a second buy line. If you’re liking GRR even though it’s in a buy state currently and a long way above its sell line but yes, I want to see iron ore firm up into a buy situation before I bought into them.
Any of those scoring well for you? I don’t remember seeing any of them on my scorecard this morning.
I think RIO and BHP are there but though they’ve been eliminated because they have an underlying sell sentiment for the commodity.
OK, yes, that’d be why. Right.
Yes, that’s why you haven’t seen them probably.
Jeff, how are you, Cam? I’m good. Thanks, Jeff. A little bit sore when I walk around but just can’t do– I can’t do Kung Fu for a week but some other things with Chrissy but I’ll be good. Thanks very much for asking. Thanks for your concern, Jeff. Still loving QAV. I feel a lifetime relationship growing nicely. That’s nice. We feel the same way about you, Jeff.
TK mentioned recently about post shedding the bleeding on all stocks. He mentioned about dividends and changing up arrangements given that he and Jenny are not working. If not a personal question, what does that change up look like a different investment structure? I asked is my wife and I doing some stuff. I won’t go into his personal details but a few lifestyle changes for him and he’s interested in, you know what you did.
I didn’t do anything differently but the difference is that I do have to take money out of my portfolio to live off either as dividends or as if I sell something, I might pocket some of the sells proceeds to live off for a while which is different because in the past when with Jenny working, her income was enough to live off and then we were able to reinvest all our dividends.
That’s on top of the royalties you get from Marketing The Messiah and The Psychopath Epidemic. On top of that, if you need anything from a QAV, anything extra then you tip, you have to take a dividend.
Correct. Yes, and the horse breeding business and the raffle business.
Oh, God raffle business.
Absolutely [Inaudible 00:57:42].
Yes. Not that you put any work into any of those.
No time, right?
Yes, I was being facetious.
Yes. Right. Yes. No, I understand that where the question is coming from and I think a couple of things that—He was a Jeff? Jeff might want to consider is, whether his stocks are held in a super fund. You may– Like I don’t do this but you may want to– If you have a decision about where to buy a stock, you may want to put one that doesn’t pay a dividend and Superfund because if you need to live off the dividends, you want that to be outside of the Superfund. You can do that but what I found is that dividends are good to live off because you get the franking credits. There’s some tax benefit to it but in the end, the square I landed in when I was trying to decide when to sell Fortescue metals group was the iron ore price crossed its sell line like a week or two before the dividend came out and I just had to make a call, I said, was it worthwhile hanging on to the iron ore price as it drops? And then I’m going to sell Fortescue metals group, is it worthwhile holding on until I can get that 10% dividend which has the tax benefits? But I may be out 20% on the stock as it drops before I sell or is better off just following rules? And therefore, I followed the rules and sold Fortescue.
Yes, I don’t face with that decision, I try and make the one that follows the rules and try and protect my downside rather than hold on to it and wait for the dividend and get the franking credit but yes, that’s about all the considerations I’ve made.
There you go, Jeff. Last question. This is from Max.
He says, hi, Max. Hi, Tony. I’m fairly big into my technicals and no matter which way you look at it, the ASX and the DJI both looked to be set for a downturn. Think there’s a lot of uncertainty in the market. Everyone is on edge and selling down at the slightest bit of news. This is shown by large fluctuations over one and a half percent both up and down in the last couple of weeks. Couple that with your analysis that you can’t find many large cap stocks to invest in at the moment, it’s telling me that fundamentally the market is overvalued. The cape ratio of the DJI is 37. The ASX is 19 which is above average but nothing like the DJI. We all know that whenever the Dow coughs, the rest of the world catches a cold so every measure in chart is suggesting we’re in for a pretty big downturn. Especially as we’re in October which is the month of many historical crashes. It’s only going to take a mere mention of the term rate rise and everyone will lose their shit. Would you ever consider something like BBUS or BBOz as an investment?
I think they’re beatboxing groups. That one Australia’s got talent. Yes, it’s an ETF and you don’t predict the future and bubbles of the past have gone 100% after they were called out as bubbles but you could use a 3PTL on these question mark as in the 3PTL, sell of the XAO could mean a buy for BBUS, BBOZ. See the BBOZ chart below. It’s a one-year weekly chart but used the shorter time frame to show the uptick, five-year monthly shows a minor uptrend starting. Cheers, Max so BBUS and BBOZ, what are they for the uninitiated, not beat boxing groups.
Bear market ETF. They basically go up when the share market goes down. They have– I’m not quite sure how those particular ETFs do it but they basically short the market. They wait for a downturn in the market, then they’ll go up in an inverse way to what the market does.
BBUS is the US market. BBOz is the Australian market. They’re ETFs.
Benefit from a crash in the market. Look, really I think this is a really great question. I mean, I think first of all three-point trend lines from my experience work on all things, not just QAV stocks. They work on commodities, they work on non-QAV stocks, all things. Yes, I think it does look bad if the ASX and the DJI have both crossed their three-point trends sell lines and I did have a look at the all ordinaries on the weekend and yes, I think it is a three-point sell but does that mean we– I sell my shares? No, for two reasons.
One, because the ASX isn’t like a commodity underlying all it shares. Unless you’re an index fund or an ETF where the ASX probably—Ordinaries probably is like a feedstock into your future trends. I won’t sell on that three-point trend line breach because we’ll find stocks like New Hope Corporation which may run counter cyclical to the rest of the market and will increase or Santos oil and gas or something like that. Not all stocks march in lockstep to the all odds.
Index is the first thing.
And the second thing is, yes, I’d be worried if I was holding an index fund but was tracking the index because the underlying index has become a three-point trend line sell and I would expect that means that the index fund will eventually if it hasn’t already become a three-point trend line sell as well but I don’t have any personal experience at trading the market as a market but really interesting insights I think. In terms of the BEBOP, BBUS and BBOz, they’re not at the three-point buy lines yet. You’d be selling the All Ords index in Sydney on cash for a while I think or investing at somewhere else in a different country maybe where the index is still going up waiting for BBUS and BBOZ to reach their buy signals but yes, really interesting.
Fox has been doing beatboxing recently. It’s– He’s got a couple of friends at school, they’re all beat boxing. He walks around the house like [Music].
Well, that must be fun.
Never ends. The fun never ends here, Tony.
I can see why you had a vasectomy.
When you’re speaking to your doctor afterwards, they say, do you have any questions? And like, they just say like, man, can I have sex with my wife again? And he said, well, week. Did you say when can I have sex with your wife?
No, but the nurse did tell me that I have to. I’m not going to go there. There were some jokes to be had. Yes, she basically said, she’s going to hate to do it. No, I had to do it 20 or 30 times between now and when we can go without contraception. In the next three months have to get it out 20 or 30 times and I said, can you give me that on letterhead to give to my wife to say look, doctor’s orders. We have to do it 20 to 30 time. [Inaudible 01:04:23]. There’s nothing sexier than telling you why she has to sleep with you because it’s doctor’s orders.
Right. Does she asked for a second opinion?
Getting back to Max’s question and you’re contrary in approach that’s again, Oh, I’m just going to talk about what works on Wall Street in our afterhours but that’s one of the points that Oh, Shaughnessy makes in this book is, the way to be an investor is to be a contrarian investor and it’s our job to find out what is doing well even if the rest of them– Even if 2380 stocks on the ASX are in freefall, we’re looking for the 20. That aren’t going to be. Right. That’s–
[Crosstalk 01:05:09] Get back to the COVID cough. We didn’t sell 100% of our portfolio. We didn’t go to cash a lot but we still had at least 40%, I think maybe 50% of the stocks we held. Fortescue Metals.
50%. I think we sold about 50. Yes.
Yes. Schaefer court come to mind. There are a few that we still thought were worth holding during that. Yes.
Yes, it’s our job to– And I was saying this to you this morning. In our meeting, like doing the checklist yesterday, I was really enjoying it and I said to my wife afterwards– Said to Chrissy, it’s a game for me now. This– It’s a bit like a chess game, like my job is to look at two and a half 1000 stocks and try and find the winners out of those and figure out, OK, can we get rid of all of those? Now, we’re left with sort of 100 and we’re going to get rid of 80 of the 100 to find the 20 and then, it’s a challenge. It’s like, it’s a game. It’s this challenge to see, can you find the diamonds in the rough here? Can you find the needle in the haystack? That’s the challenge. Do you have patience?
Doing the spreadsheet’s, a lot of work. Can be if you’re trying to do the whole thing like we are every Monday now, which isn’t? I reiterate for people, if they’re new. That’s not what you would normally do. You don’t have to do this for five hours, seven hours every weekend like we do at the moment because normally, we’re only going to do it when we sell a stock and then we’re only looking for a couple at the top, right? But–
It’s a much more simple process if you’re using it for your own purposes but because we’re publishing this each week, we’re going through the whole rigmarole.
And while going through it to cross reference each other so we can find it here as well.
Yes, and then we do find lots of errors and then we have to figure out why we disagreed on all of them and it’s usually because of the Josephine situation as we found this.
But yes, it’s some. I’m enjoying the thrill, the challenge of–
I can see how Warren Buffett gets his jollies for 60 years sitting in his office, doing analysis and it’s kind of a hoot. It’s got nothing to do– As you said this morning, it’s got nothing to do with the money. It’s just can I find the winner– Out of all the losers, can I find the winner?
It’s a game and that’s great because it does take the emotion out of it. You’re not worried about whether your portfolio’s going up or down or whether you’re rich or poor. Today, the focus is on, can I find a winner? Can I get better from where I am? Which is great.
Can I find the winner? Can I get in at the right time with the winner? And can I get out at the right time with the losers? And can I get the ticks and the talks?
All right, and yes, I mean at the end of the day, it’s about your portfolio and if you do it well, it pays well but the other thing I said to you this morning and this is again worth mentioning maybe for new folks is, I think for me after about six months of investing my own money in QAV, the emotional factor of investing my own money, it’s probably lower. There was probably like three months really but the emotional aspect of investing my own money went away because it was like OK, well, look it doesn’t matter if this goes up or goes down because I know that over time it works. I just– It’s baking the cake. I just keep following the recipe and I’m just baking cakes and I’m not thinking about the cake, this cake, that cake. It’s just going to be good. The cakes will be good. It just works out. It’s not a good analogy but you start–
Exactly right. I remember back when you first started buying shares, you’d be texting me every night going. [Inaudible 01:08:42]. Calm down.
Once you gamifying it takes an emotion out of it.
No, only text you once a night.
No, yes, does it– Well, it’s the gamifying it but also just the confidence that it just works. I know that long term, we get more winners than we get losers so if there’s a couple of losers along the way, that’s OK. We expect that. We expect 40% not to work out and doesn’t matter because the 60% do. If I go through my portfolio in Stock Doctor now. Not my super one but my individual one. OK, up five, this is individual stocks. OK, there’s one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, 13 that I’ve bought and sold at various times over the last 18 months.
But up five, up 56%. This is up 1%, up 15%, up two and a half, down 3.8%, up 22%, up 85%, up one, up. 69% That was my error was up 90% until you made a stock of the week. Up 2%, down 2%, up 21% and what is it? 0% change. It’s WWG.
All in all, total return– Well, hold on what’s my TWRPA? 40% according to Stock Doctor so 39.03 times. It’s like after you’ve done it for a while you’re like well, it doesn’t matter it just works so don’t even have to think about whether or not it’s going to work and I know it will.
And then if you like the next stage after from where you are now I sit down the weekends and I go, what if I did this? What if I added this metric? What if I sharpened up the procedure here or changed that? And yes, that’s when it becomes really interesting as well.
All right, yes, like Max’s questions. They’re really good.
How do you improve it? Correct. Yes.
Well that’s the show for this week.
After hours, Tony. What have you been into this week when you’re not thinking about investing?
I’m just watching investing shows. I’ll be watching billions which is back on now which is great and I’m hooked on succession again, which is a–
Great show. New season’s not out yet though. Right? Season three I think comes out this week maybe?
Yes, I’m just halfway through season two.
I watched the– Jenny and I watched the first episode or two whenever it came out and we went, no, these people are pretty evil and venal and we don’t know.
Yes, but I got hooked into all the plot twists and twists and turns and who’s stabbing who? It’s like Game of Thrones.
It’s very watchable and if you like actually if you watch– If you like that, you’d like Billions, same sort of thing.
The people just venal and they’re stabbing each other all the time and they go to war all the time. Yes.
And the performance is great in Succession like all of them. The Australian girl who plays the daughter, she’s great.
Sarah Snook. Yes.
Yes, the McCulken kid is great. They’re all just great. The dad whatever is great.
Great Brian Cox.
Brian Cox. Oh, he’s so good. Isn’t he just, oh great and he was in Deadwood for a couple of seasons too.
He played one of Al Swearengen’s old mates and he’s a completely different character. He was like a traveling showman who brought his theater performance to town and he was fabulous is that he but he really had like a bit of a dark underbelly. He and Al went back but he had this whole theater persona that he put on when really was an old throat slasher from way back and then there was another show. Did you ever see the show where guy played Al Swearengen’s, Ian, whatever his name?
Is it McGregor or something?
No. Anyway, he was the king of America. Did you ever see that show?
It was really great and he ran for one season. I can’t remember the name of it. I always forget.
Think well. It’s not Gods and Monsters, is it?
He’s in there too.
Yes, but it’s not called Gods and Monsters either. That’s the whatever show. God My brain is dead for everything we’ve done today. Ian McShane is the name.
McShane. Thank you.
He did this great show. It only ran for one season sadly and just didn’t– It’s one of these HBO shows that was fantastic but just didn’t get a good run. American Gods is the current one you’re thinking of? The one I’m thinking of was called Kings. I should have remembered that.
Yes, it’s based on the Old Testament. He’s– It’s like the biblical story of King David but set in modern America but he’s the king of America and it’s a great show. Brian Cox was in that too as the king he deposed and he keeps– Everyone thinks he’s been dead for 20 years but he keeps him in a prison in like a basement prison and every now and again, if he’s having a really tough time, he McShane is the king, you’ll just go and visit this guy bringing out a bottle of 25-year-old scotch and a chessboard and they’ll just go visit him and they’ll just shoot the shit for a while and drink scotch and talk about what’s going on here. Use him as his counsel as he’s like conciliary but he’s keeping him in a prison.
Anyway, yes, they work well together. Yes, Brian Cox is good. Well, we’ve been watching what we do in the shadows, the new season of that, which if you haven’t seen that is really funny. It’s written by Jemaine Clement from Flight of the Conchords and titling and Tyco YTT. It’s a bit– It’s basically a reality– Faux reality show but it’s about a house of vampires in New Jersey who are hundreds of years old and it’s over the top and ridiculous and Matt Berry’s in it and I’m Chrissy and I are both massive Matt Berry fans who can’t Matt berry can do no wrong in our book.
That sounds like– What was that vampire TV series that got resurrected into a movie with Johnny Depp?
I haven’t seen that. Yes, it was called something like that. Yes. Never saw that. This is a– This did the other way around. It was a low budget film that type of a TD and Jemaine Clement did before they were famous and they turned it into a TV show a few years ago with a different cast but yes, it’s very funny and then I’ve been reading our Book of the Month Club book recommended by Brent. I think what works on Wall Street by James P O’Shaughnessy that I think I mentioned last week, but I listen to more of the audio book of that on my way back from Bondi. Really good. It’s, as I said to you this morning, it’s just QAV. It’s just total QAV and he wrote it in 1996.
Oh, really? Wow.
Yes. It’s well worth a read and or listen, if no, if people are they haven’t got into it yet. It’s just, it’s all based on data and it just reaffirms everything you’ve been teaching us on the show for the last couple of years down to the letter, almost. It’s fantastic.
Wow. Well, there’s nothing new in the world is there? Just repeats?
Well, yes, but again, like most of us don’t know this stuff and most of us haven’t worked it out. He’s basically going look based on my analysis of 52 years of the s&p data, here’s how to do it and its QAV. It’s fantastic. It’s really good.
Oh, we should buy the copy out of print and change all the terms to QAV and put a couple in it and resell it.
I’ll just do a Ctrl F and change it. Yes. I’ve reached out to AI Shaughnessy to see if he’ll come on the show for a chat too. It’s really nice. Don’t tell him that we’re going to just rip off his book when you do that.
Yes. OK. We’re– I’m reading a book called ‘The Jason’s’ at the moment which is quite good too. Have you heard of them?
No, but I got ripped off by a couple of Jason’s over the course of my history.
Now, these are a group of scientists who were put together after the Manhattan Project to advise the chiefs of staff in the US on various military issues. It’s just amazing. The stuff they get dragged into.
Were their names actually Jason?
No. There’s a bit of a cloud over why it’s called that. One theory which is probably not the correct one is that Jason stands for July, August, September, October, and November and the scientists used to meet in the Northern Hemisphere summer too because they’re all working at university campuses and teaching physics or doing experiments at the labs but the one which seems to have the most credence is it was called alpha Jason and the Argonauts because they were going on a quest for the Golden Fleece all the time to find out these, solve these unsolvable problems for the US military.
Really interesting stuff about you know how to stop the Vietcong from getting from China down in the South Vietnam, how to spot missile launches?
Well, that didn’t work very well. Did it?
No, but then oftentimes, they didn’t but it was just this is going through all these, the way they get together, get briefed intensely by four star generals and then have a cup of coffee around the table and say, what if we dropped all these release pencil size bombs that were basically firecrackers and when a truck ran over them or someone stepped on them, they’re making noise and then we drop the parachute, these acoustic sensors like that were used by submarine hunters into the trees in South Vietnam or here the North Vietnamese coming through the jungle and will be able to drop bombs on them. Things like that. It’s really interesting. left field sort of takes on various problems.
I’ve never heard of these guys before but I’ll have to make a note and talk about them on my cold war shall have to get this book.
Yes, and of course, there’s a political aspect to it because after the Manhattan Project made the bomb, they all signed a letter saying they’re pleading with governments not to drop the bomb. It was that political dimension to it too and they actually had to take a lot of the work they did off campus because of all the protests in the 60s and 70s about nuclear activity and working for the military and all that kind of stuff. Yes, interesting, right?
I came across them. I read a book that Malcolm Gladwell his latest book, which came out about six months ago. I think it’s called something like Bomber Command, but it was about the invention of the Norden bombsight during World War Two which was really interesting when it was meant to be the thing that changed the war but it didn’t really because it never worked properly. It’s a great story about scientific investment and research and how again, it doesn’t always pay off but how it did in a convoluted way shape the war and how Obama come out and change their tactics and change them back and all this kind of stuff. Yes.
Oh, I haven’t heard of that either. You’ll have to send me some links. Good stuff.
Well, that’s the show. Thank you, TK. Have a good weekend. Enjoy your new premiere when he takes office tomorrow.
Yes, with his six kids and his love of Trump. That’ll be fun. Got this might not look so bad after this guy. We lose Barola and we get Trump light into the state premiers office. Yes.
Oh, God. He’s Opus Dei too. At least he went to an open school I read. Yes.
- The interesting thing that I’ve– I mean that just a couple of things I’ve read about him, so I’ll give him the benefit of doubt and he might be very competent and a good leader and all the rest.
Yes, that’s what they said when Trump got elected.
Two things I will say was, I think Gladys did a good job of balancing his views against the scientists’ views. When the scientist was saying we need to lock down and he was saying bullshit, this is just a lie, we need to open up and save the economy. He’s certainly coming from that Trump point of view of what to do with COVID but given that gratis has laid the way out now anyways, just cut implement the plan, I think now, so maybe you can’t do too much damage on that front but he famously is allegedly to have said that chief health officer should take a pay cut if she wants to shut down the economy because that’s what’s going to happen to businesses.
They both denied that was ever said, but it’s been reported and the other thing was he was called out by them if you read Christopher Joy’s columns in the FINRA view but they’re all still oftentimes very, long and arcane but they oftentimes also good reading so he came out and said that Para type has set up a bunch of ex bankers. One of them was an ex Westpac banker, I set up a kind of quasi future fund for New South Wales to invest to for its future which is not a bad thing but then Christopher joy outline how much they’re all being paid to run this funding sort of thought. This is not good.
He should have a quick look at papers that came out today to see if any of it is in the papers.
Yes. Anyway, like I said, I don’t know much about him so that I don’t want to impugn his motives or his points of view but we’ll see what happens.
All right. Good luck with that guy.
Have a good week. Enjoy the peas.
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