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Batteries to power. Welcome back to QAV, Seafood, how are you today?
Good. You know I don’t like seafood, don’t you?
Really? The name or the cuisine?
I don’t care about the name, not a big seafood either.
Well, yes. Well, good thing you’re not on the Mediterranean diet like I am right because it’s mostly seafood.
I Kind of am but I do have red meat instead of seafood. Lots of [Inaudible 00:00:50].
I’m on the Mediterranean diet but I just replaced all the fruit and vegetables with candy and all of the seafood with red meat but apart from that.
You can eat red meat on a Mediterranean diet and I have lots of fruit and veg.
A very little red meat you’re supposed to eat like it’s supposed to be a treat, maybe once a week, once a fortnight, something like that as my understanding of it.
OK, well, I’m on a modified Mediterranean diet.
I have salmon probably, a piece of salmon for dinner once or twice a week and then I have smoked salmon bagels for lunch couple of times a week. A little bit of tinned tuna, scallops–
I hate tuna, yuck.
Once a week.
I– Just we’re growing up with tin fish and it just made me sick every time I had it. I don’t mind fresh salmon on bagels when it comes that thinly sliced stuff. That’s good. We had that for the [Crosstalk 00:01:46].
Fresh or smoked?
Smoked is fine as long as it’s good quality.
We had that for the weekend, for lunch one day too but most seafood I don’t like.
A bit of cream cheese, a little bit of some capers, little bit of dill. Oh, it’s good.
Well, I’m like you. I’ve never been a big fan of seafood. I think it’s growing up in Queensland that dis to me just but it was just the amount of seafood that we ate as a kid.
The smell of seafood on my fingers all the time and I got sick of that but–
I can’t walk into a seafood section of a supermarket now without getting sick.
It’s disgusting right? Yes, I remember walking through the Vic markets in Melbourne in the seafood section. I’d have to hold my breath away quickly too.
But these days I’m into it more than I have been in the past.
How are you doing? Week– What is this? 27 of lockdown for you? 28?
Are you feeling that your rights are being oppressed? Tony, are you feeling revolutionary? Are you putting on your Che Guevara cap and getting ready to march in the streets?
None of those. No, my rights are being oppressed to the extent that if I don’t like the government, I can’t leave and go somewhere else so I have a better government but that’s probably it.
Well, you can. You can leave.
Well, where do you want to go? To a different state or a different country?
Different– Well, different state at this stage? You see my daughter.
That’s the biggest thing for me is just being away from people.
Can’t see it– I can’t see Jenny’s father who’s 87 or 88.
What a terrible way to end a good life. Just stuck in a one-bedroom apartment in a nursing home.
Yes, it’s not fair.
No, and yes. I think but I just guess get sick of the messaging and the spin the politicians keep throwing at us every day. Epidemiologist, they tell it like it is. Matter of fact. Yes, we’ll get to 3000 cases a day. No worries. Of course, it will be like that and the hospitals will be full to overflowing. Yes, maybe we won’t get out of lockdown to probably [Crosstalk 00:04:00].
That’s your problem. You can’t listen to the epidemiologist. They’re all being paid by Bill Gates to put chips in your head, Tony. You’ve got to listen to Fox News. That’s where you’re going to get the real facts from. Don’t listen to scientists. What are they doing?
We’ve just upset all of our Australian readers– The readers of the Australian who listened to the show. Sorry about that.
Well, here’s a question. If a newspaper hasn’t made a cent profit in the last, what, 50 years since it’s been going, why does it exist?
It’s for political influence.
It’s propaganda, isn’t it?
Yes. Any who.
Speaking of things that aren’t making any money. Let’s talk about stocks. C-O-G. Tony, is it COG state or is it something else?
Now, it’s COG Financial. Someone pointed out when we– When I spoke about it last week, I used both companies interchangeably and that was a mistake. It’s C-O-G, COG Financial. There is another one called COG State which I wasn’t talking about.
Even though you kept saying COG State. Yes, and I didn’t know that there was two companies. I just thought it was all the same thing. I let it go.
And just to clarify– Further clarification on that to the– I spoke last week about some of the issues with the write down– There’s a write down issue and there was something else from memory which may lead to a qualified audit but the audits now out and it’s unqualified. The auditors are happy with the write downs and with the other issue which from memory was evaluation issue, I think. No, sorry. It was a question mark over going concern because the part of COG, not COG State, COG Financial that lends money to businesses. Has lots of short term liabilities but they’re matched against long term assets and strictly speaking, there was a question about whether COG Financial could pay its bills this year and keep going as a going concern but the auditors haven’t raised any emphasis of matter on that. They have put both things into the key audit matters but it’s not a qualified audit.
Good to go.
How they– How are they doing? COG, are they having a good run?
We spoke about them, you didn’t put the kibosh on them.
Let me have a look. Well, I don’t think I did a pull apart on COG. We did?
I think we did. That’s what this was all about, wasn’t it?
Someone asked the question about the impairments. No, it’s doing. They’re doing well. I can’t recall whether it was a pull apart or not but it was. It was. You’re right, sorry and she spoke last week. It was. You’re right. Sorry. Did you buy them?
I already own them which is why I didn’t want you to talk about them.
Well, it went from a $51 down to $44 but it’s back up to $48. That is half lifted, let’s say half a curse.
Half a curse is better than a full curse.
You got some results of a new trial on positive operating cash flow?
Yes, must have been around this time. Last year, I had amusing about whether if a company went from a negative operating cash flow to a positive operating cash flow? Whether that was a good sign that the company would– The share price would outperform that? Following that, and I did some analysis and use the QAV stocks from August last year and then again from February. The half year reports in February and the results are mixed.
Just to summarize them, there are great results from August last year that the stocks were up 109% that went from negative to positive operating cash flow but from February, the six months figures up 3% for those stocks that went from negative to positive. My guess is that this is maybe something coming out of the COVID cough that we saw a lot of stocks maybe go from negative to positive cash flow or as part of the recovery and stocks generally that the ASX had as well–The index had as well, from last year to this year. I’m not convinced it’s statistically valid to progress any further.
I know it’s only a sample of two halves but yes, if it was clear cut, I’d keep going but I’m not.
Right. OK. Tell me about appendix 4e Tony.
Yes. I’ve been trying to find a place where a qualified audit is recorded and it doesn’t always happen but in appendix 4e, there is a section. Appendix 4e is a return that comes out with the annual numbers– With the annual figures to the ASX and it gives a quick summary of it like a one page, be one page summary of it and it gives this snapshot of key information. It gives the dividends, the net tangible assets, probably gives the earnings per share or that about 12 different things in a summary form and one of the last thing that it asks for is, it has a question that the ASX wants to know about. Is the other company figures audited and was there any qualification to it? It’s there. However, I– And that’s where I go to first now if I want to try and see if it’s a qualified audit.
However, some companies just blindly say something like the financials have been audited and I don’t go on to say what the status of the audit is. Better companies will say that the company’s figures have now been audited and the audit has no qualifications.
And this is something that’s published separately to the annual report. If you look in the list of documents that they’ve published in Stock Doctor, this will be broken out.
Yes, you’ll see. Sometimes it’s with the financials but it’ll say annual financials and appendix 4e or sometimes it might just say appendix 4e. Sometimes it says appendix 4e preliminary financials, preliminary being unaudited. You’ll see that as part of the 4e, it’ll say the numbers are still being audited and that’s another issue that it’s cropped up just in the last couple of weeks with downloads I’ve been doing is that apparently, the ASX has given a waiver for the requirement to have the annual numbers audited by the end of August and I think that’s was something that was loosened during COVID because it was difficult getting auditors to out the companies and things like that to do visits and check things and that’s still enforced. It’s been a couple of companies that I’ve checked recently that don’t you have audited figures.
Yes. When I’ve been filling out the manually entered data sheet, I’ve been saying if they were audited last half and it was clean, I still said qualified audit no, rather than leaving it blank because that would take it off the buy list straightaway.
But there may be some cases we should go back and check before we buy or sell stocks.
Right. Moving right along, GLEs results are out.
Yes. Good old.
I’d just raise it because it hasn’t come through on my download because the ADT, the Average Daily Transactions is zero.
Even though the price has risen since the results came out.
But it’s still 32 cents which I think was below its high point, which was about 37.
Below what I sold it for too which was 33 cents.
No, good. OK.
Yes. I got out just in time before it collapsed, another 10 or 15%, then it came back up. I did get an alert from hot copper I think the other day saying that they had one of the directors, I think had sold a bunch of stock 55 million shares or something.
Some major shareholder movements there and I thought, Oh, no, don’t tell me the share price is bumped up and I should have held on to it but so far, it’s all good.
Yes. I just raise it in case people wonder why it wasn’t on the buy list anymore but that was the reason.
Yes. Speaking of the buy list, by the time people hear this, we will have put one out. Our first official scorecard.
Yes. Looking forward to that again. Yes, we’re going to put it out. Just– It’ll go out with an email, I think in the email to people with the recording, won’t it? That’s the plan.
In an email with the recordings. Is that right? Sorry?
Yes. It’ll go out every Monday in the weekly email. The podcast, this week’s doesn’t normally come out till Tuesday so they’ll get the email with this previous week’s podcast. For the people who miss it, they’ll get the email saying, hey, this was last week’s podcast, all the stuff we talked about then this week’s episode comes out the following day usually.
OK, and the email that goes out will have the buy list in it though, right?
For our subscribers. Yes.
It’ll go out on a Monday. Yes.
Yes, good. Yes. Buy list is ready to go.
Yes. Now, the one that we’re putting out this week, we filtered out stocks with zero ADT and stocks that are tied to an underlying commodity that price is in decline. Our iron ore stocks and I think our copper stocks we just took them out.
Below their sell lines. Yes.
Yes, but everything else is in there. It’s a big list and one of the things that we want to make sure that people realize is that the scores and the rankings that these stocks get is based on the date of the download which is usually going to be the day that it comes out or the day before it comes out. I think you did a download on Sunday this week and you put it out on the Monday so before anyone makes any investment decisions based on that list, they should at least check the share price. I mean, we would recommend do all your own research, again, your own scores. But if you’re not going to do that, at least check that the share price hasn’t gone up dramatically before you buy it. Well, if it goes down, it makes it a probably a better score, doesn’t it? Unless it’s gone [Crosstalk 00:15:07].
Well, it’s impossible at sell line.
It’s not a buy.
Yes. Unless it’s crashed since you get it. Do some basic checks, obviously, before you make any investing decisions.
Yes, and also too– We’ve left in stocks regardless of whether they have fresh numbers or we’re still waiting for some numbers to come through. Be aware of that and I think the last thing is that it’s always a choppy time to buy stocks as they go ex-dividend. This in the– Around this time, probably about started going ex-dividend last week or so and I’ll keep doing it for another couple of weeks so just be careful of that because that can throw your timing out and you might– You may need dividends or you may not want them so just be aware of that and also too of a lot of stocks or some stocks are selling close to their sell lines. If they drop down, add a dividend back to that, at least until their dividends paid so you can make a better decision.
I’m usually pretty forgiving of a stock that falls just below its sell line at this stage of proceedings because in some cases, not only are they going ex-dividend and dropping by that amount but there are plenty of funds out there who just dividend harvest and we’ll move on to the next dividend paying stock and I’ll be selling the stock as well. There is some extra downward pressure which doesn’t last very long, usually.
And the stocks will bounce back.
Just want to point out for people listening to the free episodes in the newsletter that we send out to the free listeners, I think you’ll get two stocks out of that list. We’ll probably put out a small cap stock, the top small cap stock and the top large cap stock, depending on where your level of investing is in your portfolio but for the club members, you’re going to get the full list which I think today was 90 stocks in that list.
It’s a big list.
Yes, it is.
Very much. Interestingly enough, I went through on the weekend too and if you do filter out companies that haven’t given us their June half numbers and you filter out the iron ore companies and copper companies and you filter out those which so far this month have trended down, which I tend to do as well. The list gets much shorter.
Yes, but as I say, I think the downward pressure this month is probably going because of stocks going ex dividend and it’ll turn around.
Right. You left the Josephine’s in the list?
What’s the Josephine, again?
Where they’ve trended down. They’re above the buy line but they’re trending down.
Yes, I’ve worked to leave [Sysco 00:17:52].
Correct. Well, OK. Well, that’s controversial.
Well, that’s what I said. We can pull out a very short buy list but then if something goes from trending down to trending up next week, the buy list is out of date or could change quite dramatically, quickly.
That’s why we put out a new one every week mate.
We can do that or we can just let people check it themselves before they decide to buy and then they’ll have a day by day check on it.
Yes, but one of the points of the buy list I think is over the last couple of years we’ve been doing this, we get– Constantly get feedback from people who play around with QAV for a bit, they do the two-week free trial, they subscribe for a little while and they’ll say, oh listen. I love it. They appreciate everything you and Tony are doing but just– I just don’t have time to learn it and my Excel skills aren’t good enough and I can’t afford a stock Doctor subscription and this and that the other and I can’t afford to do it.
One of the ideas of putting out this list is it’s for people who don’t want to do all the work themselves. It gives them a list of suggested stocks that we think are a good bye. I think we should do all the work for them here as much as we can so they don’t have to then go and check too many things anyway. Yes, I normally follow them on sentiment if they’re Josephine based on previous discussions but if you think there’s good reason not to do it because of the whole ex dividend issue this week, then that’s different.
No, Jo– I think– The whole thing I think it still applies. I just wanted people to make their own decision and to check the stock at the time that they were going to buy it because like if there was because on Friday and checking out by all this then things may have changed in the next four days.
Yes, but I think I can take it out. I think I should take out the iron ore stocks and copper stocks. Anyway, I’ll start doing that from now on.
It’ll mean another column in the master spreadsheet but I’ll send a new one, a fresh one through to you with that in it. It’ll mean I have to add a manually entered data column to say, what’s the underlying commodity?
[Crosstalk 00:20:21]. Yes.
In positive sentiment or not?
But that’s OK. I can do that and I can also add another column to say, is that trending down this month?
Well, should we be introducing the commodity column as standard practice now?
Seeing as that’s what we’re doing?
Correct. Yes. OK and then the question is, should we do that for Josephine’s as well?
Well, Josephine’s. I did do that for my own checklist a few weeks ago but then I realized, well, it’s just sentiment checks anyway. I mean, every time I run a checklist, I check the sentiment. Anyway, if it goes from being a Josephine one week and then it spikes back up the next week, then it’s sentiment goes from negative to positive.
OK, do you want to just use the sentiment score for Josephine’s as well?
Yes, that’s what I’m saying. That’s what I do because that’s what it is really, right? That it’s just picking up it sentiment. It’s just we’ve added a new element to sentiment and it used to just be is it above the buy line? But since then, we’ve said but if it’s above the buy line but it’s been declining recently, then no, it fails. Sentiment part be [Inaudible 00:21:52].
Yes. Well, I guess it does fail but it’s– In my mind it’s been more of a hold. Let’s just keep checking it until it turns up again but and I think maybe we should call it out separately just so you don’t get lots of questions around. Hang on. This is how I draw the buy line. Why is the sentiment– It’s above the byline? Why is the sentiment negative?
Or because it’s a Josephine.
I put the upward Josephine column into the manually entered data so we can clarify it.
- You can do that. I mean, yes, look at but the problem with the free listeners, I mean, quite frankly, if you listen to this for two weeks and you’re not fully subscribed, I don’t know what your problem is. I’m not sure this guy knows what he’s talking about really.
How long is it going to take you to work out? But that, my point was going to be that they probably don’t understand the system well enough to know to even check for a Josephine. To expect them to do that is probably expecting a bit much.
Then again, that’s their fault, right? They should. It’s on them if they don’t know because they haven’t got serious about it yet. I don’t know. I mean, two minds.
I was too that’s why I didn’t make the change before I sent through the buy list and that’s OK. I can do it.
Good point. Tell us what you think listeners.
Yes. Let’s get some feedback from people too. Yes.
Navexa. I wanted to point out, we’ve just eclipsed the two-year anniversary of the portfolio, Tony.
Wow, how we’re gone.
Oh, not too bad. I think since– We have the official start date of our dummy portfolio as the second of November– September, 2019 because that’s when we invested all of our fake startup capital that we started with. Since then, in that two-year period, the ASX 200 is up roughly 10% and were up roughly 37%.
That’s 10% per annum and 37% per annum. That’s a compound growth. Yes, we’re up more than 37%. We’re up 50% because we were started at 20,000 and now we’re at $30,000.
Is it really?
It’s 30% compound growth and versus 10% for the ASX.
See that’s why you get paid the big bucks Tony as you– Just paying attention. You just don’t look at a graph and go, OK, well, I guess that’s what it is. Oh, yes. Of course.
That’s why our subscribers have been posting those big numbers in the leaderboard.
I was happy with the fact that we’re up 37% over two years but we’re up 37% a year over two years.
We started with 20 odd 1,000 dollars and then what’s the portfolio value now? 30 Something?
31, 32. Yes.
It’s up 50% in the last two years which is 30% compound growth.
- Yes, really?
It sounds high actually. No, that’s not right. We get to– I get to 37,000 so there’s something wrong there.
Hey folks, Cameron in the editing room. To cut a long story short, Tony and I couldn’t work it out and I emailed the guys at Navexa and Navarre Trousselot, the CEO of Navexa sent me an email saying, hi, Cameron. Hi– Let me start it again. Hey, Cameron, I’ll explain the calculation doesn’t just take the starting value and the ending value of the portfolio and determine the performance. It individually calculates the performance on every stock in the portfolio, including the time that each stock and each position within the stock was invested in order to calculate the overall return. The annualization is also not as simple as counting the days between the first of September 2019 and the seventh of September 2021. The annualization calculates the number of days each stock position was open for in the portfolio and sums them together to get the average years invested or AYI. Is the AYI that is then used to analyze the return.
This gets even more complex if you have stocks with multiple open and closed positions but all of that is handled. The 36.53% is made up of all of the above. If you wanted to calculate it by hand, you need to calculate the performance of each individual stock and also calculate the AYI for each individual stock and then combine them. This calculation is essentially a big reason Nevexa exists in that it brings a professional level calculation methodology to the everyday investor and then he says, they have a page on their website that explains how it all works if you want more details.
Now, of course, I can’t make any sense of that. It just melted my brain but I’ve asked Tony to maybe explain it in English for us on the show next week. Hope that helps.
Well, either way, it looks like our portfolio is doing well. It exactly how well compared to the all odds we don’t know but yes, good. It’s good. It’s three times, four times somewhere in that vicinity maybe.
Yes, saying three times at the moment.
Depending on what they’re measuring there.
Yes. OK, your pulled pork this week, Tony, what is it?
Yes, pulled pork this week is Clearview wealth.
Oh, no. Do I own them? Should I sell now before we do this?
I hope you do. I know because they’re doing well.
I don’t know. I think I did at one point.
Really? I’m glad you sold this. Well, they’re doing well probably.
You’re welcome and you– They’re up 8% today which is Monday, the sixth of September.
In fact, they’re climbing very quickly and what’s happened, Clearview wealth is a company that it’s a financial services company, basically a life insurance provider or seller. A seller of life insurance and– But it also has two other arms to it, its businesses. It has a wealth management business and a financial advice business and I think the reason why the share price is taking off is because they’ve just announced they’re going to sell the financial advice part of their business.
They’re still retaining a stake in the company that’s buying it and the merge. It’s also a financial advice business and then it’s been merged together with them. But I think people are happy that the company is basically a life insurance business and the other financial advice wasn’t adding no heap to the company’s profits.
That’s why it’s been– That’s where the share price has taken off since that announcement which came out with the annual results and just a bit of background on that, it– Even though the directors only look like they hold about 4% of the capital for the company, there is a large shareholder on the register called Crescent capital who own 54%. Crescent capital are an investment company and they are conducting a strategic review with the board on what this company looks like going forward and this is the sort of first outcome from that review which is to get rid of the financial advice business and concentrate on the other two, particularly life insurance.
That’s what’s happening with the company but it scores really well. The QIV of 0.4 and this is based on a 61 cent share price which it was this morning. It’s now up to about, it’s up to more than that. It’s up to 66.
- I sold it over 50.
Back in June. 21st of June. [Crosstalk 00:30:38]. Sold them at 50. I think it was a rule one thing, they went up, they went back down, and I saw OK and then they went, oh, God dammit.
Yes, the QAV scores good 0.4 average daily trades, pretty small 27,000 and that’s largely because of that large shareholder on the books is not much free float. Quality scores a little bit low 56% but then if you take into account that, OK, it’s not the founder owner that has a large shareholding but there is a vested interest there with a large shareholding which I’ve never taken into account before but it seems to be having a positive impact. Maybe the quality scores a little bit understated there. But anyway, price to operating cash flow, very low, 1.4 times PE of three, net tangible assets of 70 cents per share, or we use naps which is 73 cents per share. It’s trading less than its net tangible asset value which is another great thing to be aware of in terms of valuation. Consensus valuation, I think there’s only one stock broker covering it, but they’ve got 96 cents as the price.
The growth forecast is down. That may have been depressing the share price and that may change after this sale of the financial advice part goes through. What else can I say? It’s not a star stock but it does have strong financial health from Stock Doctor. It’s not the highest or lowest of the last six PE’s, it’s in the middle and I’ve got it down as a new three-point upturn. It’s been trading in and out for a while now but it was a sell recently and we came back into being a buy since that since the latest uptick in the share price.
Zero. Equities hasn’t been consistently increasing so it gets a zero for that. That’s the pulled pork. General advice only, as we have to say, after our AFS license came through.
For every stuff.
We have to say that everybody’s supposed to say as often as possible but anyway.
General advice on you do your own research. Yes, but scores well and the share price is taking off. Have a look.
Oh, very good. ASG, Tony. It’s crossed a sell line.
A couple of more comments on stocks I came across doing a buy list on the weekend ASG which is auto sports group has been on our buy list in the past and I think it may even still be on it. I think it’s just crossed itself. I’ll just double check that again today because it’s gone up a little bit today. Yes, it’s right on the sell line today I think. Let me have a look.
No, I think it’s just crossed that sell line. I’m getting very close. I’m getting around 225 and well, maybe it’s a cent above the sell. Yesterday, it was just below, it’s gone up a percent today. It’s right on the sell. I just wanted to call that out. Be aware of ASG if you’re holding it. It’s awfully close to a sell if it isn’t today.
Right, and VER.
No, I’m sorry. I think it’s, what’s it called? VRS. I put in the wrong code in our show notes and again, I think this was on the buy list in the past. Maybe not. Let me just have a look.
Yes, it sounds familiar.
Yes, I think it was. I’m just going to check its QAV score. Yes, it currently has a QAV score of 0.19 based on its latest figures, however, it came out with a qualified audit. I just want to double check that one again.
Oh, Veris Geospatial Services here. I know these guys from my own consulting days. They were competitive to one of my consulting clients that’s why I know that.
All right. OK.
Do a little LIDAR scanning and all the cool stuff that surveyors are doing these days.
Yes, that’s right. It’s a surveying company, isn’t it? I’m just going to find the wording I’m after. Oh, this is another one that’s coming through. I’ve got this wrong again. How can that be? I can’t see the qualified audit now.
Well, how many grannies were you drinking yesterday?
I haven’t had a drink in like two weeks.
I drink it all.
Correct. I should get back on the drinks and get back on the drinks, I’ll make better sense.
Who are you and what have you done with Tony Kynaston?
Why can’t I find that going concern?
Cause you’re sober, that’s the problem. What? You told me.
No, I found it yesterday. It was last night.
You said you bought all this new whiskey and you were doing a couple of glasses a night. What happened?
I just stopped for a while. Trying to get healthy, trying to lose some weight. Oh, yes. Look, there’s a– OK.
There’s no calories in whiskey, Tony. It’s well established scientific fact.
No, it’s actually.
I heard it on Sky News.
No, just taking a break. I feel much better for it actually too.
Good for you.
Yes. OK, there is a going concern in the notes to the financial statements. Note six, going concerns is raised by the directors rather than the auditors. The group recorded a loss from continuing operations at 1.38 million. The net cash inflow from activities was 6.7 million, including 5.1 million of job keeper receipts.
The directors are pursuing a demerger of Aqura, A-Q-U-R-A from the Varus limited group through a potential IPO subject to regulatory requirements. This– The merger is expected to raise additional capital to capital to fund the company’s cash flow budgets. That’s what I– That raised the red flag for me, Cam. I’m just surprised that the auditors haven’t picked it up too. I’m just going to check that audit report again.
It sounds to me like you’re searching for going concern in these documents, finding it and going, yes. It’s not actually a qualified audit. It’s just the directors calling out some cash flow issues.
Yes, possibly. It’s– I’m sorry. I don’t know why I didn’t look at the audit report correctly. Maybe that’s what I did search for going concern and found it. OK, strictly speaking, not a qualified audit. However, let me just see if it’s called out in the audit. Yes, it is as a key audit matter. Yes, the auditors have raised it as a key audit matter, they haven’t really made it. They haven’t made an emphasis of matter and they’ve called in other people with more experience to have a look at it and that’s pretty much all they’ve said.
Right. Sounds like a big red flag.
Certainly convinced me yesterday when I was doing my analysis but strictly speaking, it’s not I want to make that clear. However, if you’re relying on job keeper and or decoupling a part of the business and floating it as an IPO to raise money to keep going, it doesn’t sound like you’ve got the strongest business in the world, does it?
No, but they might have after that depends on– Maybe they’re.
Yes, I don’t want to be– I don’t know. Well, I’m pretty negative on it based on that but I don’t want to be categorically negative but well, I guess I have been I put it down as I’d ordered it myself.
Alright, speaking of job keeper, I hear Jerry Harvey decided to give back. He did a third of the job keeper money that he got.
Six million dollars’ worth.
Out of 22 million.
A record profit year for him.
What a nice guy.
Yes. Thanks, Jerry. Before we move on, thank you very much.
Before we move on to questions I just wanted to ask about MXI. Somebody in the Facebook asked about MXI last week, stock that I do hold had this five for one consolidation and then has disappeared since then. Stock Doctor and also my stocks app, showing me any price changes in the last week or so. Now, somebody said that it was now the code of change to MXIDA but you said that was just like a holding package. [Crosstalk 00:40:04].
Now MaxiTRANS is there, but everything is flipped over to the five times consolidation. The share price is now 365. Whereas before the share price last time we looked at it was around 70 cents.
And what happens during the interim is that the share code gets given the suffix DA after it. MXIDA, which is a fairly common thing for anything which is undergoing a restructuring and it just means because of T plus two settlements, it makes people aware that if they buy shares at 70 cents today that they may be worth and will be worth $3.50 tomorrow or in two days’ time. It’s just they use that DA to say it’s– I think it’s officially call the third settlement but it may even hold up settlement by more than the T plus two days, while I get all the data to flow correctly and reflect the new share price but that’s what it is.
Oh, and I just realized looking in Stock Doctor that they issued a trading halt last week. Pending some that and the completion of the sell of their trailer business may be supposed to come out of the trading halt on the seventh of September. We’re recording this on the sixth. That’s why it’s been flat lining for the last week.
Right. OK. Yes, OK. That makes sense.
Right. We should see the– Because last time I looked at it, I was like, Oh, and the share price hasn’t moved in a week. That’s weird and there’s been no trading but that’s why it’s got a trading halt. I should have thought of that earlier.
OK, thank you for that. Right. Any questions? Daniel.
It’s only been going for an hour.
Because I thought we had two questions and I padded.
Oh, is that what you did? OK, well, sorry about that. Daniel asks, CVW has now entered the top of the list, was hoping for some help with the balance sheet and cash flows. I’ve noticed in the last couple of years, there are operating cash flows jumped up substantially to previous years and in effect, makes them come out with a nice QAV score. I’m wondering if Tony could shed some light as to what’s behind this. It is a pretty poor quality score relative to other high scores on the list. It’s taken on more debt in the last couple of years which sounds counterintuitive if it’s operating well and directors only have a small stake, which concerns me a little. I’ve noticed by sentiment, though, it’s looking as if it’s turned around and trending upwards nicely, which makes me think I’m missing something.
He did send me this question last Monday and I didn’t see it until after we’d record it and then it went up by 15%. I apologize for that. Daniel, I was meant to send you the question to get a– Like private email response but I got busy with AFSL legal documentation and my apologies, Daniel.
We’ve already talked about CVW. Is there anything else you want to add based on Daniel’s question?
Yes, just a couple of points. The operating cash flow for this company is, looks like it’s almost completely driven by the life insurance business. The receipts from customers are basically life insurance premiums and when I say life insurance, I mean, life insurance and other products in that suite. Income protection, for example, would also be a life insurance product. It’s all– The operating cash flow is dominated by the life insurance business, lots of money coming in from the receipts from customers and then the major outgoing is claims for on life insurance policies.
The big change in recent times looks like that the premiums have gone up slightly over time but the claims have come down and that’s been a big driver in the operating cash flow going up and I’m talking broad brushes here. There’s some other movements in there as well but that’s pretty much what it is. That was the- There was a question about why the operating cash flow jumped up substantially in previous years. That’s the reason. I don’t know why the claims are going down and whether that will continue.
Sometimes, a lot insurance companies can get big benefits by tightening up some wording in their policies and payless claims, for example, but I’m not sure if it’s the case here or it’s just something else going on.
Anyway, premiums up, claims down, big tick for insurance companies, and that’s a big driver of the operating cash flow. The– I wouldn’t say that 56% was a poor quality score and I think as I said before, even though management only hold 4% of the company, the Crescent capital holds over 50% and I have a representative on the board. There is a lot of committed capital in the business which I think is a good thing, which isn’t reflected in our quality score.
In terms of taking on more debt, I didn’t see that when I had to look at the numbers. I couldn’t see where debt was increasing, not markedly anyway, it might have been up by 5% or something. The Stock Doctor score is still financially strong. The metrics don’t or their analysis don’t consider the debt to be a problem and I’m also wondering whether, again, it’s an accounting thing for life– A company that issues life insurance policies because they will have to back up those policies with collateral so that it to allow payments to be made on the claims and that could be funded by issuing bonds, for example. It could be, and there are government regulations around how much capital you have to pay and just in summary, the way that works is that if I start a life insurance business tomorrow, I’ll start taking premiums in this year and I’ll have claims potentially even from day two, which I have to find and if the premiums don’t allow me to fund that, I said there’s a big climb early on.
I had the government says I have to have a certain amount of collateral held to pay those early claims until you get to a stage where the premiums are funding but claims liability. That could be why the company was issuing or taking on debt probably by issuing bonds or with a thought to hold the collateral to pay out claims on the life insurance policies.
Yes, I’m looking at their balance sheet in Stock Doctor, long term debt under non current liabilities. December 16, zero, June 17, zero. December 17, zero. June 18, zero. December 18, 15 million, then it goes 15 million, 34 million, 61 million, 91 million, and 103 million.
Sorry, whereabouts are you in Stock Doctor for this?
Balance sheets. Financial Statements balance sheet under non current liabilities.
Everything else looks like it’s tracking pretty normally but there has been an increase in long term debt over the last three years.
Long term debt. Sorry, now I can see it. Yes. What I looked at when I made that statement before was the headline number for non-current liabilities.
Yes, it hasn’t changed dramatically. Has it changes much at all because they’ve got billions. They’ve got 2 billion in long not, long term or non-current liabilities.
Yes, which I’m guessing again, is collateral being held for claims for the life insurance business.
And that’s gone from, since December 19, from 2 billion up to 2.– Nearly 2.3 billion now, which is an increase but not a huge one and when you’re talking about this half a $100 million worth of long term debt. It’s not a big part of that number.
Yes, I don’t see that that line item increasing as being a big issue really.
I think claims are down by the way just because people have been locked in their houses for the last year.
They’re wearing [Inaudible 00:48:28] and washing their hands three times a day with disinfectant.
Yes, well, it’s entirely possible so it may reverse when we ever come out of lockdown.
I know that’s why they’re saying there were no deaths from influenza after about– Recorded after like June last year. In Australia here last time I looked because everyone was in lockdown for winter and PPE and washing their hands and yes, well influenza just stopped in their tracks. There’s normally thousands of them and they just disappeared.
I know we can’t continue in lockdown forever but I do hope that means that we keep going with some of the things we’ve learned during COVID to keep that influenza death rate down, whether it’s QR tracking and wearing masks or whatever.
Well, Chrissy was–
I don’t know what it is.
Chrissy was telling me this morning, she’s just decided she’s just going to always wear masks in public, in shopping centers, and places like that. She goes, yes, it’s no big deal and I like the fact that I’m lessening my chance of getting sick and passing out sicknesses to others. I’m just going to keep doing it regardless of what the law says.
Yes, that’s what I do, too. I like that fact as well. It’s– I mean, it’s taught you a lot about hygiene, hasn’t it COVID?
I tell you what I’m supposed to. I like most about it is I don’t have to see people’s faces when I’m out in public. I like that. I’m all for that. Like just everyone cover up as much as possible. I don’t want to– I don’t want to have to look at you. It’s just.
I know when– Whenever I feel low and feel down, which doesn’t happen much about myself. I used to go and sit in the front door of church and watch the people go past that cheered me up. I felt better about myself.
Just look at your bank account, dude. Just look at your bank account go and yes, I’m alright. OK?
That’s so good. I have noticed I like wearing it like I didn’t realize that most communications I had with people’s eyes walking through a building or down the street was like a smile and a nod.
And now that doesn’t register so you’ve to actually say, oh hello to people and actually say something to them. Just– Well, just to be polite.
Don’t have to. Just you get a mask with hi, how are you, written. A tip of the hat. You got to bring back the old tip of the hat, Tony. Just tip the hat. [Crosstalk 00:50:49].
Eric asks. Hi, Cam. Hope you’re well. I am. Thank you, Eric. I’ve made an observation on commodity stocks, says Eric, It seems to me that there were two states when it comes to commodity price charts,. One, when the commodity price is moving up or down and secondly, when prices are consolidating sideways. When the price is consolidating commodity stocks seem to behave like regular stocks and stocks going up or down a triggered by news of all discoveries, increased volumes, etc. But when commodity prices move, this seems to override any other aspect of a company that directly affects the sale of the metal and hits the revenue directly.
I’ve limited experience. I’ve only done QAV for six months, but based on recent trend events like the end of the iron boom, we should be using commodity price as a proxy for share price. When prices go up, jump on the best scoring QAV stock for that commodity sell when price trend ends or go sideways and due to the speed the prices move as we saw with the iron price decline, a shorter timeframe seems warranted. I’m looking at weekly charts using the last two years. Would be interested in your thoughts. Cheers, Eric. Eric the Arthur B. [Sysco 00:51:49].
Eric the Arthur B.
That’s another question.
You just slipped in there. You didn’t even email me that one.
I did email you that one.
You didn’t dude.
I swear man. I swear to God, it’s.
Next question was from Wayne.
No. Look at the email again. Seafood. It was in there.
- All right. It is.
Get back to drinking man. I tell you this is not good for you. This sobriety doesn’t suit you.
My eyesight is going without drinking. Now, Eric, makes some good points and that’s pretty much what we do. We use a three-point trend lines on the underlying commodity.
We’re not looking at two-year charts, weekly charts, like he’s suggesting we’re doing five year monthly still.
Correct. Yes. I mean, I don’t have the answer as to whether two years would do better but I know five years worked well for us, picking up iron ore when it was starting to boom and getting us out when it was down enough to cross its three-points sell line.
Same with gold and the same with other ones, coal.
Yes, and like you always say just generally with three-point trend lines. Yes, you can do shorter timeframes and daily, weekly, instead of monthly but it just means you’re going to be making decisions that are perhaps more volatile and that comes with its own problems.
Correct. Yes. Well Eric go for it mate and let us know how you go but yes, I use a five year monthly for commodities and you’re absolutely right, they do drive the stocks that mine them and sell them and not just metal stock as we’ve seen with inghams. The poultry price has been going up. There are other underlying commodities that we look at as well.
I thought for a second there you were saying that metal prices and inghams were connected. I was thinking really, do they like feed their chickens metal or?
Yes. You just walk into the supermarket with a large magnet and walk out with a chicken.
Just for the new QAV listeners, do you just want to remind people why you use five year monthly as opposed to something more turbulent?
Yes, just experienced five year monthly is less volatile. I have used– Stock Doctor uses a two-year weekly chart and I have used two year weeklies before I have looked at moving averages over 190 days and 90 days and 30 days and yes, they just more volatile and volatility can hurt you based on transaction costs and capital gains tax costs. The less volatile, the better has been my experience and the best.
Ideally, I’d like to Hold the stock forever. Not that that happens but we hold it for– You want to hold on anyway for 12 months if you can and get the CGT discount that’s available in Australia anyway. Yes, I use 5g monthly but it’s mainly around decreasing the volatility.
Right. Yes and the problem with volatility is that you will be selling too soon because things dip and then come back up and when you sell, you’ve got capital gains tax issues, brokerage issues and you have to go through all the effort of replacing the stock with something else. That may or may not do as well as this stock and all that stuff.
Yes, that’s right.
Yes, as we’ve seen in the last month, there’s been a lot of rotation, at least in my portfolio out of iron ore stocks, out of copper stocks, into other things. It was quite a– It’s a fair bit of work to do that. A fair bit of analysis to do that and to find the things to replace it with. Yes, it’s just more work to do it on a short time period.
You become more like a trader rather than an investor.
That’s what I found anyway,
By the way, I’m making a note for myself to email you a PDF of the notes from now on.
- Rather than the Microsoft notes, whatever it is. Is it Microsoft or?
Wash your mouth out with soap and water, young Kynaston. Apple notes.
Yes, Apple notes.
I always email Tony a link to my apple notes and for some reason, the version he got today was a couple of hours out of date. Hence, he’s complaining. Wayne–
Wayne asks, Cameron, can you please ask Tony to explain the true reason a company will pay a return of capital instead of a special dividend? I suspect it is to reduce the share price to match the new expected business level. AVA is selling its services division which is around 70% of revenue but 35% of profit. It is proposing to pay a return of capital from the sell proceeds equal to 30% of the current share price. I assume this will result in a drop in share price of a similar amount. Should this be of any concern or is it just a management tactic used when there are no franking credits available? Really enjoyed the show. Regards, Wayne.
Thanks, Wayne. I think it was probably a multi-pronged reason for this. Certainly return of capital usually reflects the fact that there isn’t franking credits to hand out otherwise, it’d be a special dividend which would come fully Frank.
In terms of some of the other questions you’ve asked, though, the reason for the sell and return of capital is often important and it looks like in this case with AVA. Management is saying it’s a non-core part of their business. It looks like when this company started life as a separate company, it was spun out of another company called Maxick and it looks like that the business that AVA is now divesting is a legacy of that spin off when it was rolled out of Maxick.
It makes sense. If it’s an encore business, it looks to me– I don’t know, the company very well. Looks to me like the company is a technology company providing monitoring services and the company that it– The part of that company that they’re selling. The Legacy business looks more like it’s a security business. It doesn’t have a technology component to it or much of a technology component to it. I kind get why they’re doing it.
I suspect. I don’t know but I suspect that the company may rewrite. I don’t know the company in detail but if it, for example, is seen as a technology company like a software as a service company, then yes, it may rewrite up rather than down when the non-core businesses sold off.
What does that mean?
Because it might.
What do you mean rewrite?
Yes. Currently, the business is, I don’t know this business but let’s talk hypothetically, say it’s half a security business where guys jumping cars and go around and make sure your factory hasn’t been burgled and the other half use technology that will send you a text message if your perimeters been breached at the factory and if you combine those two businesses together, the valuation that’s applied might be half of one and half of the other and the guys going around in cars to check the factory businesses have a much lower valuation metric applied to it as opposed to the software business because the software business doesn’t involve much capital, doesn’t involve much employee as is every time you get $1 of revenue, it’s going to translate to a higher profit than putting guys in cars, leasing cars, going around, and shining flash flashlights on the factory walls for you at night.
I don’t know if that’s the case with AVA but I’m saying if it is, then if they get rid of the guys in cars going around to check factories, the business may increase in share price because it moves on to a high valuation metric and this company, for example, at the moment has an NTA of nine cents per share but its share price is much higher than that. It’s not being rated based on its assets. It’s being rated based on a multiple of its earnings and even though they’re giving back, I think it’s about 16 cents per share. I’m not sure the share price will drop by 16 cents to match that return of capital, it may. That’s the logical thing that will happen but if the company gets rerouted during that time, it may actually not dropped by 16 cents, it might actually even go up. I’m not familiar with AVA to know what’s happening there but there are different things that go on with these capital returns and it looks to me like it’s selling off a business which doesn’t have the metrics that a software business would have and be as appealing to investors in technology companies as the other half of the business.
I think that might be a reason behind that divestment as well and the third one, Wayne asked what the true reason for a company doing this thing is? I wouldn’t be surprised, I don’t know if it’s the case or qualify my comments with that. I wouldn’t be surprised if management are rewarded on return on equity and the ROI for this company is currently 47% and once it sells off this business, it gets a lot of cash in, something like 40 million bucks or 30 million bucks, which will sit on the balance sheet unless it’s used which will depress the ROI.
They’re wanting to get that cash out the door as quick as possible, thereby decreasing the equity part of the ROI calculation and keeping it high which is attractive both to investors but probably also to management who want to have incentives being paid based on ROI. I think I suspect that’s why it’s been returned to shareholders quickly.
As a general rule of thumb, I’m surprised that the company hasn’t found a way to deploy the cash that’s usually what management would do is they wouldn’t want to give that money back to shareholders. They’d say, hey, we’ve got a tech company to buy. I’m a little bit surprised it’s going back to come to shareholders which leads me to think that it’s an era we play by management to keep our way up for attractive both to investors in the company who, as we’ve said, time and again, in the past look at our investors will often look at a high ROI company and give it a premium in terms of its valuation but potentially also management are also rewarded based on that ROI metric staying high.
Yes. Bottom line is could be a range of things. Some legitimate, some little bit self-serving.
Yes. As it usually always is.
Yes. Well, decisions everyone always makes.
Good question Wayne. Thanks.
Next one is from Mantle’s aka Lee and Steve with VUK scoring so well, how would you draw its sell line seems to be crossing by the QAV letter of the law but also seems tough given it’s basically a steep uptrend since the flat bottom l1 of 30 September, 20 and then a recent sideways.
Yes, I’ve got the sell line because of the flat bottom, I’ve got the sell line as September 2020 and then there’s a couple of troughs on the way up which that sell line then touches. Currently, I’m using the last of those, which is going to be July 2021. Which means it’s below its sell price currently. In fact, it’s– Sorry, not July. It’s — What is it? June 2021. There’s a trough there.
Yes, well, doesn’t that puts it after it’s– Below its sell price.
Correct. Yes. We sold it out of the portfolio a little while ago.
It’s a sell for us. Yes, the price. In fact, the price has dropped and it’s come back up again a little bit.
Yes, but it hasn’t come up enough to be a buy again. Yes, it’s a sell.
Yes. The sell price is like 446. It’s trading at 398.
What am I getting for a sell price? Yes, I’m getting around 450. I’m just doing it with the segment drawing in Stock Doctor to get that. Yes.
It scores well but is below its sell line so we wouldn’t sell it if we owned it and definitely not buy it and it’s also a bit of a Josephine. It closed August at $4 for its currently at $3.98. Just a little bit down below where it closed last month.
Yes, and it’s a funny one too. It’s one of these ones which has, it’s like a buy and sell at the same time.
Right. It’s a Schrodinger.
Yes, it’s a Schrodinger.
It crossed its sell line so then we look for new buy line but it’s then had another sell line since then.
Yes. Technically a Schrodinger which for new listeners, is a stock that is both a buy and a sell at the same time.
Yes, it’s above its buy line but it’s below its sell line. We don’t like touching those.
Don’t touch needs to be about both.
That’s right and essentially, what it’s saying to me just looking at the graph is that the steepness of that growth is coming out the share price. Appreciation since that low point in September 2020.
It’s starting to roll over a bit.
Right. OK. Thanks Mantle’s.
Dave asks, could Tony have a look at Humm and why the big change in the QAV score?
Yes, interesting one. Humm, the big change in the QAV score is it’s not on our index anymore because it has operating cash flow which has now turned negative. December 20, Interim was a positive $230 million worth of operating cash flow but June 21 is in the negative $110 million of operating cash flow.
I haven’t really figured out what that change was brought about by. There’s a line item in the operating cash flow in Stock Doctor which has minus 263 million against it and it’s just listed this op– Other operating cash flows. I haven’t had time to dive into the annual report but I can go quickly and have a quick look.
Another one, I saw over a [Crosstalk 01:07:22].
I’m looking for a financial note to see what that is if I can.
I know that the business has changed quite dramatically from– Well, it’s it still is but it used to be only a business which provided the in store credit for purchases. As we’re saying before about Jerry Harvey, the– You often see on his ads, interest free for five years or interest free for three years or two years or whatever and most of that was provided by this company, FlexiGroup– Used to be called FlexiGroup. Now it’s called Humm and as part of that change in name, they also got into the buy now. pay later space. They have a product which I think is called Humm which also looks a bit like the after pay product.
Harvey Norman doesn’t need their money anymore because they just got $22 million of job keepers. Who needs to sell products when you just get free money from the government, right?
Well, I’m just looking at the what there’s an announcement here saying that– Let’s have a look. I can’t. I’m sorry, I’m just having a look at that. There’s been a rebalancing of the ASX and may have affected Humm which is why the share price is down. Yes, Humm has been removed from the ASX 300 list. That would explain a little bit of a price drop in the–
Because there’s a bunch of ETFs and funds that automatically sell it.
Yes, that’s right. There’ll be a lot of– Well, yes, ETS which would have a mandate for ASX 300 but also investment funds as well, even if they’re active, they may still have a mandate for being in large cap stocks. OK, I’ve got the Annual Report. I’m just going to have a look at the cash flow statement quickly. If this takes too long, Cam, we’ll take it on notice and come back to you with an answer.
Just says receivables is 211 million. I’ll see if there’s a note on what receivables are. They’re receivables and they’re negative which is interesting as well. I’m not seeing it quickly. Sorry. I’ll see if there’s a note on receivables. Yes, it’s saying there was a decline in average net receivables over the year but I can’t imagine it was that much. It says receivables and customer loans– The fair values of receivables and customer loans are estimated by discounting the future contractual cash flows at the current market interest rate is available to the group.
I’m wondering if they’ve had to discount. Like if, for example, there’s been a big change in purchasing patterns that moved away from in store credit cards to fund a product purchase and move to the after pay style payment option. I wonder if that’s caused them to have to discount their receivables? Because they’re not going to receive as much income from the old style of business. Anyway, that’s just the case. Yes. I’m sorry, I’d have to really read this in detail before I could work out what it was.
Bottom line is they’re not looking good from a QAV perspective right now hold home.
Correct. We don’t have a QAV score for them because they have a negative operating cash flow and this has been the first time they’ve had it that I can see. At least for quite a while. Yes, I’m going back. I’ve never had a negative operating cash flow line before. It’s been driven by receivables which is negative to $200 million but I can’t necessarily see what that is caused by. I’d have to read through the annual report in some detail to work it out but that’s what it is.
Right. OK, well, I got out of them at 97 and a half cents. Happy days.
Yes, I think they became a sell around that price for us to0, didn’t they?
Yes, I think that’s why I got rid of them.
Last questions are from Edward. Edward’s a new subscriber. Hi, mate. He writes, just testing the three-point trend with a few of my holdings. The first one he’s looking at is Collins foods, CKF and he asks, the three-point calculate is giving me a sell at 11.389, current share price is 12.49. I imagine that if I did this exercise before the share price hit 11.389. I should have sold the stock well?
Yes, I’m not sure if we get the same numbers as it would and first of all, well done for holding columns food, they’ve been a resounding success during the COVID lockdowns as people buy lots of Kentucky Fried Chicken and other takeaway food that Collins food sell so well but I’m getting an l1 point of September 16, which is about to roll off and then the l2 I’m going to use is the COVID cough of March 2020 which gives me a sell price of around $6 something.
Yes. Just for Edward’s benefit and anyone else who is new, the basic process for drawing a three-point trend line or sell line in this case is we start with the lowest trough on the five year monthly chart which in this case, as Tony said is back in September 16. It’ll drop off at the end of this month but right now that is the lowest point and the second lowest point is the one the COVID cough of March, as you said that Edward uses his first point. It brings in a much lower sell price.
Yes, I’m just going to have a look what that will look like next month after that trough rolls off. The low point after that is I think 511 and which means anything up to 551 is l1, sorry.
Yes, 511 is the price, the one on May 17. Is that what you’re looking at?
Yes. However, with the flat bottom rule of 8%. It actually does make the COVID cough, l1.
Yes, right. OK. Within a few weeks, the sell line will look like the one that Edward Drew.
Yes, that’s right and it could be the case now, depending on the graph it was looking at I’m not sure I’m using Stock Doctor which actually goes back five years to the day, which means that we’re getting a trough at the start because there’s a bit of a month before.
He’s using Stock Doctor graph.
Well, OK. You should see it too then. OK. Yes. All right. Once we roll past the month, end of month, then l1 will be the COVID cough. Let’s draw a line with using that.
COVID cough for new listeners is end of March 2020.
I don’t know. somebody suggested that at some point last year, it just stuck. It’s the COVID cough.
Yes, if you use that then there would have been a sell. It would have been a sell in November 2020 and then there would have been a buy after that. You would have had a sell perhaps when it was referring to $11.40 in July 2021 but because there’s been a buy since then, if you look at the highest point on the graph or the highest peak on the graph is May 2021 and you can draw a line across to August 2021. It means that the sell line gets redrawn with l2 being July 2021.
It’s– The share price is currently above the current sell price of about $11.70 I’m getting. Yes.
But just run me through that again. The previous sell line.
Yes, if you take the rule, which– The rule for drawing sell line says takel1 as the lowest, then l2 as the second lowest.
Second lowest to the right?
Yes, to the right which would be November 2020. If you draw a line through there, it was a sell in November 2020 when the share price fell below the line. However, since then, there’s a– There’s been a high price– The highest price on the graph, if we want to draw the most recent buy line is May 2021 at a price of $12.60 and if I pick a point to the right, I’ve got– When’s that? August 2021 has another buy.
I was going to say but the sell line today and the sell line six months ago would have had a sell price lower than that. If you had owned it six months ago or back even November 2020, as you said, it was not eight or nine months ago, you wouldn’t have actually sold them right? Because the sell price back then using the current sell line would have been around– I don’t know. $5.50.
Yes, true. Good point.
All of this is arbitrary.
The sell line where it is today, where it has been for the last year, is down around five bucks and in three weeks, when that l drops off and we start using March 2020 is l1. This the l2 is where it is now which is July. The sell price is up around– Well, now it’s near just under 12 bucks. Probably in a couple of weeks, it’ll be a bit higher than that because the line will go up to the right but yes, technically, if you had owned it for the last year, it hasn’t crossed its sell line.
True. Good point.
That’s why I get paid the big bucks, Tony.
I do go through that process of drawing buying sell lines to see where the current ones are.
Yes, and I think that took me a long time to understand. The whole buy line follows the sell line follows the buy line thing that you have to chart it out because it moves, right?
Yes, it does.
OK, the second part of it was question is relating to a different stock, CAR. While you bring that up, he asks, what would Tony recommend I do today? I have a mind let it run considering the six-month chart looks bullish. I assume these two stocks that he already owns and we can’t recommend.
Give any personal financial advice, Edward. Yes, we can tell you what the QAV rules say. You make your own decision. carsales.com.
carsales.com. It looks like Edward likes the growth stocks, the high PE stocks. I don’t think CKF or car sales have been on our buy list. Maybe forever, but at least what we’ve been doing it for the last two years.
Well, as I said, he’s a new guy so he’s getting around.
He’s doing the right thing. If he’s got current holdings, he’s going to trade them using the three-point trend line and then migrate across.
He would have done well.
If he’s held him for a while.
Yes, He has done well. I’m getting a low point– Lowest point on the graph, again, is way back almost five years ago in November 2016. Maybe, what’s that number is? 10.36.
No, it’s actually January 2017.
10.27 and I’ll just see what 8% above that is.
Yes, no, it’s I think it’s the l1 is actually December 18 here.
10.82 and the COVID cost, yes, I agree with you. December 18, 10.82 and that’s for Edward’s benefit. That’s because it’s a flat bottom. December 18 isn’t the lowest point on the graph but it’s within 8% of the lowest point on the graph and it’s in the right most trough within 8% of the lowest point.
For new listeners, including Edward, the theory which is relatively new in QAV, we’ve only been doing this for a few months is your regression testing that you did with one of our interns Dylan indicated that if you have a flat bottom or a flat top where you’ve got two prices that are within an 8% margin of each other, you should use the right most of those two prices as your starting point when you’re drawing a buy line or a sell line.
Yes, and if I can just add those prices don’t need to be near each other on the graph, they can be a couple of years apart like they are on this one and it’s– The reason for doing that research was that we were coming up with a lot of graphs that had flat lines, that for either the buy or the sell line which weren’t much used to us to make a trading decision. I was trying to find a way of drawing a less flat line, I guess and also to the other thing, which I guess drove my thinking was that we look at a five-year monthly graph but sometimes these trends in stocks towards their peak or their trough occurs over a number of months. You get like a U shape or a V shape or an upside down U shape, I guess and therefore, that what we might see is that one monthly trough may not be the– A fair indication of the shape of the graph and yes, I’m looking for when the trend started or when it ended, both on a peak and a trough basis.
Right. Getting back to CAR then again.
It does have a flat sell line.
Yes, even when you take out the flat line, it’s still as a flat line because it’s such a steep graph.
Yes, l1 as you said, December 18, l2 was March 2020 and then a sell price of around $12.30.
Currently trading at about 26 bucks. Again, getting back to Edwards question, what would you do if you owned it, not what Edward should do, but if you owned it and you wouldn’t because it wouldn’t be a QAV stock but if you did, you just hold it right?
Yes, I would try that using the three-point trend line method and currently it’s a long way off its sell. I’d be holding it.
Good. Thank you, Edward. Well, that’s all the questions for this week.
Now, we go into after time where we just talk about the mind of a rich guy. What have you been watching? What are you watching, listening to, reading, eating, drinking? No, you’re not drinking.
No, that’s right drinking is on hold for a minute anyway. Watching mainly haven’t– I still haven’t finished that book richer wiser happier but I’ve recommended. Not listening too much music wise but watching Mayor of Eastham which you recommended to me which is fantastic.
Good show. Only what six episodes I think little miniseries but yes.
Really powerful show.
Yes. Good show if you’re a fan of Dennis Lehane mysteries and they were turned into movies like Mystic Pizza– Mystic River. Sorry, not Mystic Pizza. That was the Julia Roberts’s first starring shot. Mystic River. It’s really good. Yes, Kate Winslet does a great acting job in this playing a cop with lots of family problems in the poor part of Pennsylvania and East town. There’s a suburb. I think it’s part of Philadelphia. I might be wrong there but it’s very not the most affluent part of the US, that’s for sure and all of the crime that brings and the poverty and the family issues brought on by those two things, I guess as well. But yes, gritty, full of twists and turns which—I like guy Pierce has a cameo in it, which is interesting. Didn’t do much I didn’t think but it was good to see an aussie up there on the screen.
Two aussies actually.
Yes. What’s in Anguri somewhere I forget the name.
Anguri writes who plays her daughter. Yes.
Another rosie rice. I keep thinking is to go anywhere. I think of Anguri rice.
Yeas, I thought she did a great job as well. I think she’s from Melbourne or somewhere been around for few years think, she’s in a spider man film or something.
Acted really well.
Jean smart playing Kate Winslet’s mother. Fantastic. The grumpy old alcoholic mother. She’s had some great roles lately.
Yes, was she the star of hacks? That series. That was also I watched a couple of weeks ago.
I haven’t seen that. I don’t know but she was in one of the seasons of Fargo. She was– I saw her also when Legion, an x men spin off thing which was quite good. She was in the watchmen TV series that I watched a bit of. Oh, yeah hacks IMDb said she was in hacks. There you go.
Yes. That’s not bad. Like it’s a six out of 10 but worth watching.
Yes, right. Good. Well, I’ve watched a bit lately, but I’d say the thing that I would give a shout out to is Val Kilmer documentary.
Yes, I saw that.
Oh, did you like it?
Yes, it was good.
Sad. Really sad.
Yes. Not just because of his health issues but just his career in general. He seems like despite his fame and the big roles that he had and the money that he made, never was really creatively satisfied.
And the money’s all gone,= too.
Yes, I’d seen stuff before about him. He was always controversial about being difficult to– Supposedly difficult to work with and retiring to his ranch a lot and how he was trying to build the artists’ colony there which bankrupted him in the end, I think from memory. Yes, it’s interesting how it all turned out because he hasn’t turned out well, health wise either. That was a real shock, I think to see that.
I think he had to sell the real estate to get his father out of trouble because his father.
Definitely had to sell it. Yes.
Yes. His father– According to the documentary, his father got them both into a bunch of dodgy deals and he had to sell everything to get his father, by his father out of jail.
Which didn’t work. I don’t think from memory.
Oh, really? Yes, very sad but Val Kilmer the man like us some great films. I mean, leaving aside even Top Gun what he’s probably most famous for which interest he says in the documentary didn’t even want to make but he was contractually obliged to the studio to make it. He gave it everything that he had, and I think Iceman was a great character in that heat. I think he was great with a small role that he had in heat. He was great in the one replayed, Doc holiday, whatever that was. [Crosstalk 01:27:23] Yes, cowboy one with Kurt Russell.
He made a lot of good a lot of and the doors of course, I mean, his performance or Stephen Morris is it all was. Yes, that’s right. When I showed Chrissy that she couldn’t believe that it wasn’t really Jim Morrison, she and he did his own singing in the film too which was stunning, like his ability to channel Jim Morrison was fantastic.
Yes, and grew on overstone for giving him a chance to remember that was controversial as well that that Val Kilmer was going to carry a film again, after all these problems.
Right. I also watched the first couple of episodes of the new Steve Martin Short comedy only murders in the building, which is bear podcasters. As I said you earlier today when I started podcasting in 2004, if you’d told me that, within 15, 16 years, people would be basing entire big budget TV shows with Steve Martin and Martin Short about a bunch of podcasters or people making your podcast would have been would not have believed it. It was a scrappy little thing. There was about five of us making podcasts at the time and it was cutting edge.
There you go. Yes, right. Like that old joke about having the first fax machine. [Crosstalk 01:29:01].
I’ve been listening to the Osmonds. Believe it or not. I’ve married a woman from Utah and she never told me about the Osmonds. I mean, I knew him Donny and Marie were but I didn’t know that the band that Donnie was in when he was a kid actually kicked some ass. They put out a couple of albums in the early 70s which are just fantastic. They started off as a boy band, Christian, nice rock group, pop group thing and then when they got old enough, they reinvented themselves when they were late teens, early 20s and channeled, it’s a bit Jackson Five with some beegees, and a little bit of Deep Purple thrown in better heavy funk. Really groove and tunes. A little bit of Zappa in there as well. It’s phrasal.
Very cheesy looking guys though.
They were– Well, they were wearing Elvis jumpsuits and staff channeling a bit of Elvis to a bit of brass chair, very good looking Mormon boys with big white teeth and the whole thing but the songs rock man and they actually really play the instruments they wrote them. I went down this Osmonds tall last week. Chrissy can’t believe that I’m listening to the Osmonds. She’s like shocked to Mormon heritage coming back but yes, but check out there. They’ve got an album from 1972 called crazy horses. Have a listen to that, man. There’s a couple of really great tracks that blew my mind.
- Interesting. Oh, well, I think of when– I think of Diane Maria’s I went to Pittsburgh once around Christmas time when I first moved to Canada, maybe 5, 6, 7 years ago and there was these big promotional bill. Not big billboards, but billboards up for the Donny and Marie Christmas show, which comes to Pittsburgh every year and they looked old.
Yes, well, that’s what happens and I’ve been reading or Hey, look at.
Sorry, I’m going to say before I forget, Mr. In between Australian criminal series really good.
What’s it about?
Foxtel, it’s about a guy, a bit like the sopranos, a guy who runs a strip club, he hires a bouncer, he’s also eventually becomes a hitman like an enforcer. It’s just about he’s in between living a normal family life and then going out and killing people. Or breaking their legs or whatever to collect money.
Yes, and it’s really well made. It’s fantastic acting. Scripts are great. I’m just looking at some Foxtel it was sold to the FX network in America. It’s probably on some other streaming channels made by Nash Edgerton, one of the agents and brothers. Yes, I think you have other interesting factoid for me is one of our friends had her house used as the set of one of the one of the episodes too which was fun to watch on TV.
I just looking at it on IMDB I see the Damon Harriman is in it. One of my favorite Australian actors, he plays a character called Freddy in it is in 26 episodes apparently. He played Charles Manson and once upon a time in Hollywood.
But he was he was—He was also in justified which a lot of people and that’s where Quinta knew him from actually going from justified. The Timothy Olyphant show but he was also in one of my favorite shows of the last few years’ perpetual grace limited. Have you checked that out yet?
Ben Kingsley. Oh, man. Check it out. Great show. Just really only ran for one season, but it was just really good. Jimmy Simpson, Jacki Weaver, and Ben Kingsley, and Draymond Eric. Yes. Really clever writing little bits of really good stuff. Well, that’s after hours for this week after time. For anyone who’s interested. What are you cooking tonight, Tony?
We’re going to get a probably a land back strap and some veggies. Mediterranean diet.
Wendy, Jeff, right. When do you go out to dinner next?
Oh, God. Never. Christmas.
If you listen to the epidemiologists, we might make Christmas day but they’re not hopeful. If you listen to the premiere.
Then next month, we’ll all be out of lockdown and things will be eased and vaccine rights are going great. Yes, but the scientists are saying not and given that Norman Swann said we’ll be here till Christmas. He’s the money guy at the moment. He’s looking right.
And he said that three months ago and we went Nah, no way.
When the lock– It’s right when the lockdown first started. Yes. It’s all a bit depressing when you think about it that way but anyway, we’re good.
You’re alive. You’re healthy. That’s what matters.
Correct. Yes. I can still talk to people on zoom and catch up on all that stuff. Second best, but that’s good.
All right mate. Well, nearly two hours again this week, when we had only two questions as of nine o’clock this morning. There you go.
Plus, we had a business meeting on zoom this morning which was three quarters of catch up and talking about after our stuff.
Take care. All right. Thank you, bye.
The producers of this podcast would like to remind you that we’re providing general financial advice only. If you’re looking for personal financial advice or before you make any investment decisions, please consult a professional financial advisor.