Transcript #433

QAV 433 Club

SPEAKERS

Cameron, Tony

Cameron  00:06

Wel­come back to the QAV Episode 433 TK in week eight of lock­down in New South Wales.

Tony  00:14

Yes, we’re now offi­cial­ly in a sev­en day lock­down.

Cameron  00:20

Tell peo­ple the gag you just told me, Tony.

Tony  00:23

The worst part of a sev­en day lock­down is the first six weeks.

Cameron  00:28

Well, I got to tell you I did find a bright side when we had our eight day lock­down here recent­ly. The best thing to come out of it is at the end of it I real­ized I did­n’t need to vac­u­um the car that week­end because we had­n’t used it. I was like, alright, that’s one good thing.

Tony  00:43

Yeah I haven’t paid for petrol in eight weeks either. That’s a good thing.

Cameron  00:48

There you go. I don’t know I feel for you guys and for the folks down to Mel­bourne right now going into…

Tony  00:53

Yes.

Cameron  00:53

… their sec­ond week down there.

Tony  00:55

We’re in week two but I expect it to be longer. There’s still 21 cas­es a day or some­thing.

Cameron  01:03

It’s hor­ri­ble stuff. Well yes, I don’t know what to say to real­ly.

Tony  01:09

My heart goes out– We’re not real­ly affect­ed apart from lifestyle things but my heart real­ly goes out to peo­ple who’ve lost loved ones or who’s expe­ri­enc­ing– They’re expe­ri­enc­ing men­tal health issues and things like that from the lock­down. I wish it was done quick­er and sharp­er in Syd­ney, it would­n’t have prob­a­bly got­ten to where it is now but it’s com­plete­ly out of con­trol now. You can go and spend the week­end at your hol­i­day home when you can go and go any­where in the state on the pre­text of inspect­ing your prop­er­ty you think you might pur­chase. There are so many loop­holes, it’s crazy.

Cameron  01:46

Well, you could do that.

Tony  01:49

I could but I choose not to. That’s the point. It’s, yes, bars on your win­dows keep out the good peo­ple, don’t keep out the crim­i­nals and there’s– It just proved we’re a bloody insane crim­i­nal soci­ety. All these peo­ple are spread­ing COVID and killing peo­ples.

Cameron  02:11

Speak for your­self for New South Wales. Up here, we did it. Eight days in, out, dust­ed.

Tony  02:15

Yes, you’re lucky but you did the right thing. You shut it down. [Crosstalk 00:02:21] We’re here. Oh, please don’t go more than 10K’s from your home. Well, we’re not going to check by the way. Like the cops aren’t car­ry­ing range find­ers to see how far away you are. Because there’s no cops check­ing any­way. But there’s and—Look, you can still go and play golf and ten­nis, but just do it with one friend today. Do with a dif­fer­ent friend tomor­row. That’s one friend, a dif­fer­ent friend the day after that and if you still hap­pen to meet up with your one friend at the park at the same time and there’s 30 of you. Well, that’s OK. That’s right.

Cameron  02:54

You’re all there tech­ni­cal­ly with one friend.

Tony  02:57

Cor­rect.

Cameron  02:57

You just hap­pen to know the rest of the peo­ple that are there.

Tony  03:00

Yes. They’re all friends. Yes. Any­way, you could dri­ve a truck through all the lock­down rules here. They’ve tried to tight­en them up but that’s eight weeks into a Delta vari­ant. It’s run­ning white right now. It’s just way too late. They’ve lost con­trol. The lib­er­al Par­ty and the Nation­al Par­ty are the par­ty of the free­dom, they don’t want lib­er­ties tak­en away. It’s just not in their nature to lock things down. This is entire­ly polit­i­cal.

Cameron  03:33

Well, you did say a month and a half ago that you could be locked down until Christ­mas and the way it’s look­ing.

Tony  03:41

Yes, I know. I think the only thing that’ll save us is vac­cines. At least get­ting the vac­cines out to peo­ple now. We’ve got some more Pfiz­er but the oth­er real­ly hard thing is they don’t tell us what’s caus­ing the spread. You only find out if it gets into a school or an aged care home and then you know, OK, that’s how it’s spread­ing but how’s it spread­ing now? They’re not telling you. Oh, it’s because peo­ple are going to work or because peo­ple are vis­it­ing fam­i­ly mem­bers or because of their bub­ble bud­dies are spread­ing it. No one tells you how it’s being spread. You don’t know what the right– If the gov­ern­men­t’s tak­ing the right action and what the right action should be. They don’t tell you what’s caus­ing the spread. They should know. Con­tact tracing’s pret­ty good. They should know what’s been caused by. Peo­ple buy­ing cof­fees or   unvac­ci­nat­ed peo­ple wait­ing for Pfiz­er who still get out in the com­mu­ni­ty. You just don’t know.

Cameron  04:36

They’re not report­ing that.

Tony  04:37

No.

Cameron  04:38

Obvi­ous­ly delib­er­ate­ly for some rea­son.

Tony  04:41

Yes, I mean, I sus­pect there’s an ele­ment of eth­nic­i­ty to this because all of the lock­down areas are there in stricter lock­down state, the 12 LGAs in Syd­ney are all pret­ty mul­ti­cul­tur­al. Per­haps they’re try­ing not to point the fin­ger at one eth­nic race or anoth­er but yes, there’s noth­ing com­ing out to say it’s spread­ing through work. It’s spread­ing through schools. It’s spread­ing through homes. You just don’t know. Shop­ping.

Cameron  05:14

Oh, well.

Tony  05:16

Yes, sor­ry for my rant. I just been locked up for eight weeks.

Cameron  05:25

Start­ing to lose it.

Tony  05:26

Yes, start­ing to lose it. Exact­ly.

Cameron  05:28

Yes. You sent me a text mes­sage last night about a TV show which you nev­er do. I thought, Oh shit Tony’s start­ing to lose it. He sent me text mes­sages about two years to watch.

Tony  05:38

Yes, I’ve got plen­ty of time to watch TV now. I don’t nor­mal­ly watch TV, but I’m real­ly enjoy­ing the stand, the Stephen King book that’s been turned into a TV series.

Cameron  05:48

Right.

Tony  05:49

You haven’t caught it?

Cameron  05:50

No, you only told me about it last night and I nor­mal­ly, TV series based on books that I liked. I remem­ber read­ing that when I was a teenag­er and I liked it, but usu­al­ly that I’d work out very well. Even Stephen King things turn into books and films usu­al­ly don’t work out with the excep­tions of, if you’ve got Stan­ley Kubrick doing it, it’ll be OK but out­side of that, I don’t think they usu­al­ly do very good con­ver­sions.

Tony  06:17

I real­ly liked Fire starter in the dead zone but they’re back in the 80s.

Cameron  06:21

Yes, well, you put this one walk­ing and I’ll watch it.

Tony  06:23

Yes, exact­ly and Mar­tin Shane. This one’s good because it’s, I mean, I haven’t read the book since I was a kid too but it’s– Every episode’s an hour long. It gets right into all of the char­ac­ters and all the detail and takes its time and flash­es for­ward and flash­es back and– I heard Stephen King inter­viewed recent­ly and he said that the hard part about writ­ing the stan­dards is he had 40 char­ac­ters on the go. He did­n’t know what to do with them until they all got to Atlanta and he killed off half of them. That’s– You get that from watch­ing the series. Every­one’s in it like the cameos are incred­i­ble. Every five min­utes you go, Wow. What are they doing here in this? It’s real­ly good. James Mars­den stars and let’s remem­ber him. We saw him at the Met in New York and we were there that day.

Cameron  07:12

We did. Yes.

Tony  07:13

Yes. He’s the star but Whoopi Gold­berg’s in it. Greg, Ken­ny’s coun­ter­part. Heather Gra­ham has a part. Amber Heard. Yes, just an amaz­ing line­up of cameos.

Cameron  07:26

Well, speak­ing of things that go on for­ev­er, we haven’t even got into stocks yet. Let’s drill down. News. Where do you want to start today, Tony?

Tony  07:39

We’ll just race through as quick as pos­si­ble, I guess and get on to the ques­tions but it’s com­pa­ny report­ing sea­son. There’s been a few addi­tions to the list. Chal­lenger came on last week, Yancoal’s back. Coal com­pa­nies are doing well at the moment and be care­ful of Yan­coal. It’s got two big share­hold­ers and a small aver­age dai­ly trade. You can get squeezed on that one when it’s time to get out. Nation­al Aus­tralia Bank and I’ve been updat­ing the man­u­al enter data sheet in Google sheets on our web­site and thanks to Gary M for updat­ing for NAB. Check there if you’re doing your analy­sis. Down there EDI’s on Ryzens on. There’s a cou­ple which are report­ed which haven’t made it like Uni­bail-Rodam­co-West­field which is a shop­ping cen­ter com­pa­ny. It’s got good num­bers but the sen­ti­ment quite– Isn’t there quite yet. AGL’s got great num­bers but it’s in a share price to clients. We’ll watch those and wait for them to turn up.

Cameron  08:40

I did a score­card about an hour ago and I came up with one that was­n’t in the man­u­al data, the shared man­u­al data sheets. I updat­ed it, EHL, Eme­co hold­ings.

Tony  08:55

Eme­co. OK.

Cameron  08:56

Yes. I got them with a QAV score of 0.12 and they’ve just gone into pos­i­tive sen­ti­ment I think but the rea­son I did this is also comes back to Gary M.  Gary men­tioned on– In the Face­book group on Fri­day, I think it was that Aus­tralian super– His super fund and my super fund have an option where you can take con­trol of how the mon­ey is invest­ed into shares and ETFs and stuff like that. You just have to let them know and they switch you over to a– You can direct­ly man­age it. I thought I’ll do that one but you’re lim­it­ed to ASX 300 shares. I did a down­load today and just—I found out that Stock Doc­tor have a fil­ter for ASX 300. I added that to the fil­ter. I cre­at­ed a new code field and added that and real­ly strug­gled to find stuff to invest in when I was lim­it­ed to the ASX 300. Ini­tial­ly I could only– If I only came up with I think AZ. No, ING and DAO but then get­ting some feed­back from Lee and Steve and Gary in the Face­book group. I had to drill down a lot low­er that I’m used to drilling down in the list, I had to go below the pre­lim­i­nary QAV score of 0.1 down to things that had a pre­lim­i­nary score of 0.7 and stuff like that and that kicked off. Yes. [Crosstalk 00:10:33].

Tony  10:36

I’m not famil­iar with that fil­ter but do you have to also include ASX 200, ASX 100s, and ASX top 20s in your list? Because you’re basi­cal­ly– I invest in ASX 300 stocks and there’s a lot more than the ones you’ve talked about there.

Cameron  10:52

Well, I end­ed up going down fur­ther. I end­ed up get­ting about 10. West­pac, SUN, NAB, ANZ, ING, EHL, CBA, Ryzen, CNU, Cho­rus lim­it­ed, and Dao.

Tony  11:08

I don’t think Cho­rus– Does Cho­rus have sen­ti­ment?

Cameron  11:11

I think they do. Yes, it’s pret­ty tight that I think just. Yes.

Tony  11:17

Cameron  11:18

But that was it. That’s all I could get with a score of 0.1 or above. 10 stocks.

Tony  11:26

Yes, I think I’ve got. I would have said there was more than that but.

Cameron  11:30

Tony  11:31

Just let me have because I screened mine now. How many have I got? I don’t screen by the ASX. I screen by aver­age dai­ly trade which would cor­re­late to ASX 300. I would have one, two, three, four, five, six, sev­en, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18. About 19, 20 stocks on my list.

Cameron  12:04

Wow. OK. Well, I’ll have two.

Tony  12:08

What’s the size of the 300 stock? Do you know?

Cameron  12:14

No.

Tony  12:15

Cameron  12:16

All right, well, I’ll have to–

Tony  12:20

Should have more.

Cameron  12:20

I’ll have to drill down in again and try and fig­ure out where I’m– What I’m miss­ing there. My ques­tion to you was going to be if I can only find 10 stocks to invest in, what should I do there? Should I take my entire fund and split it even­ly between 10? Or should I take half of it and invest in 10 and put the oth­er half in an ETF until I can find more stocks to invest in? [Crosstalk 00:12:49].

Tony  12:50

I always like being ful­ly invest­ed. I’d invest in 10.

Cameron  12:53

Just split it even­ly between the 10.

Tony  12:57

Yes, cor­rect.

Cameron  12:58

Right.

Tony  12:58

Yes.

Cameron  12:59

But I should be able to find more. I’m doing some­thing wrong but it was real­ly like a bit of an inter­est­ing process for me to go from the nor­mal full scope of the ASX to lim­it­ed into the 300 and real­ly strug­gling to find stocks with a good score.

Tony  13:20

Yes, just hav­ing a look at the—I’m just run­ning a quick fil­ter now. Looks like the mar­ket cap. You want a mar­ket cap of about 20 mil­lion. Oh, 20 bil­lion sor­ry.

Cameron  13:39

Right.

Tony  13:40

That would be the oth­er way to fil­ter for it per­haps it’s just to look at. Oh, hang on. No, wait. That’s not nec­es­sar­i­ly cor­rect. I’m just try­ing to get the mar­ket cap. No, for­get that. Let’s– Let me have a look.

Yes, no mar­ket cap for ASX top 300 goes right down to 112 mil­lion and 15 pages of out­put on the stock field. There’s plen­ty there.

Cameron  14:22

Well, can you pull up your most recent check­list for me and let’s just run through the top few, top five, or 10? I’ll see what I’m miss­ing.

Tony  14:37

My top stock is Xycom, then Medusa Min­ing, Chal­lenger, Cash Con­vert­ers, Home Group, Capral, Image resources, IVE group, Michael Hill.

Cameron  14:52

Hold on. Sor­ry. Are these lim­it­ed to ASX 300 or this is just open slather?

Tony  14:57

No this is open slather.

Cameron  14:59

Oh, OK. Well, let’s– The first one that I’ve got there is HUM group. I’m just going to. I’ve got them as neg­a­tive sen­ti­ment on my list.

Tony  15:11

Have they crossed over today. Have they? They were get­ting close.

Cameron  15:15

Yes. Look, I’ve got them on the line or maybe slight­ly below the line but it’s not good.

Tony  15:27

I’m just look­ing at it now.

Cameron  15:28

The sell line that is.

Tony  15:31

Yes. My com­put­er’s run­ning very slow. Here we go. Yes, I got them right on to sell price of 95 and they’re cur­rent­ly 96.

Cameron  15:47

Well, accord­ing to the Stock Doc­tor, there’s cur­rent price is 94.5.

Tony  15:54

No, OK.

Cameron  15:54

But any­way, they’re right on the line. If I see your stuff that’s right on the line like that. I’m just going nut.

Tony  16:03

Yes, that’s fair.

Cameron  16:05

Go down your list again below HUM. What have you got after that?

Tony  16:09

I’ll just go through the big ones. Chal­lenger. Challenger’s large.

Cameron  16:15

OK.

Tony  16:16

Let me have CGs.

Cameron  16:18

No, let me just check that. I mean, it’s on the list but I had it as a no for sen­ti­ment. I’m  going to just recheck that. Yes. Oh, actu­al­ly OK. No, it’s above its sell line. Why did that not show up? Let me see the buy line.

Oh, yes. OK. It’s just above its buy line. Yes, I’ve missed that one. I’m  going to go to look at my man­u­al data. Why? How did I miss that? It’s not even– I did haven’t even done the man­u­al data for it. I don’t know how I missed that. OK.

Tony  17:07

By the way, when I run a Stock Doc­tor fil­ter for top 300 ASX, the small­est aver­age dai­ly trade is 250,000. That’s leav­ing a lot of stocks on my top scor­ers list.

Cameron  17:24

Tony  17:25

Well, I’ve got to say, do you have Medusa min­ing, for exam­ple?

Cameron  17:29

Medusa.

Tony  17:34

QAV score 0.62.

Cameron  17:35

No, they’re not show­ing up on my list at all. Let me go to SD data tab here. MML right?

Tony  17:44

Yes.

Cameron  17:45

No, they’re not in the SD data. They’re not an ASX 300?

Tony  17:51

Good ques­tion. I would have thought they were.

Cameron  17:55

Well, they’re not in the down­load that I did from Stock Doc­tor.

Tony  17:58

OK, I’m not sure how I can tell you look­ing them up. If they’re on up they’re. It’s usu­al­ly just by the mar­ket cap like they’re going to mar­ket cap of one or maybe not 169.  OK. No, it was in my– I just ran a fil­ter then of top 300 stocks and it was say­ing it was there.

Cameron  18:22

Well, let’s see we.

Tony  18:23

Yes, let me just dou­ble check that.

Cameron  18:25

Beach ener­gy. It’s anoth­er one I’ve got a zero here for but I think I did. Yes, I go Beach ener­gy and no for cin­na­mon.

Tony  18:34

Cor­rect. Yes.

Cameron  18:36

All right. Well, I’ll need to go through and just debug my check­list a lit­tle bit more. I don’t know how I missed Chal­lenger.

Tony  18:47

Yes, right. That’s a big one.

Cameron  18:51

OK, I’ve obvi­ous­ly screwed some­thing up. Any­way, thank you.

Tony  18:55

I’m just look­ing at. You’re right. MML is not ASX 300. Sor­ry.

Cameron  19:00

All right. Well, I’ll have a look and try to fig­ure out where I’m going wrong. We don’t need to waste more time on that. What else did you want to talk about news wise, TK?

Tony  19:12

Just the stock pull apart, which is going to be chal­lenger.

Cameron  19:15

Alright.

Cameron  19:17

Pull pork [Sysco 00:19:17]? I don’t own them. You’re allowed to talk about them because you won’t crash my port­fo­lio.

Tony  19:24

No, hope­ful­ly, I won’t crash it. It’s inter­est­ing. Over time, one of these com­pa­nies come on and off my top scor­ers list over a long peri­od of time.  I’ve bought and sold Chal­lenger in the past. It’s had a rea­son­ably check­ered career of, say the last five or so years. It’s a com­pa­ny that issues and sells annu­ities. If you’re a retiree, you can buy a guar­an­teed pen­sion from these peo­ple. You invest with them and they give you a guar­an­teed return. I think last time I had look it was around six or 7% per annum. Bet­ter than the stock mar­ket div­i­dend, and then they go out and try and invest and get a return which is above that so they make a prof­it and it’s fair­ly actu­ar­i­al based. It’s fair­ly reg­u­lat­ed to make sure that they can keep pay­ing their annu­ities.

I think from mem­o­ry, way back when they first start­ed, they’re going up buy­ing com­mer­cial prop­er­ty. They had rental yields above what they were offer­ing peo­ple back when inter­est rates were high, and you could get 9% yields on rental prop­er­ty. They then diver­si­fied as they got big­ger and start­ed just invest­ing in var­i­ous dif­fer­ent things and they would pub­lish their thresh­old of what the return on invest­ment need­ed to be to make the whole sys­tem work and over the last, since inter­est rates have been going down, I guess in the last– Heav­i­ly in the last of the five years, they’ve had to low­er that thresh­old a cou­ple of times which the mar­ket has­n’t liked. But these last results have turned around a fair bit and we talked about this I think in the Face­book group, their CEO is announced he’s retir­ing, even though he’s only been there for about four years, I think but he has been with a com­pa­ny for a cou­ple of decades and it’s an order­ly tran­si­tion. He’s not going until March which gives the com­pa­ny plen­ty of time to board plen­ty of time to find a replace­ment.  I’m not too wor­ried about that.

Any­way, run­ning through the num­bers, I’m get­ting a QAV score of 0.4 which is quite high. Takes it up to the top of the list or near the top, it’s a large cap. Aver­age dai­ly trade is near­ly 9.9 mil­lion per day or 10 mil­lion, get­ting a qual­i­ty score of 67%. 10 out of 15. Good finan­cial health, strong and the finan­cial health trend is recov­er­ing which is some­thing I like to see.  They are recov­er­ing from this peri­od of when they fell out of favor with the stock mar­ket and the share price tanked. It’s now turned around.

ROE is pret­ty good, not that we invest on our way but at 16.88%. Price to oper­at­ing cash flow of two. Two times PE of nine times. Quite good on the val­ue side of things. I’m get­ting an IV2 of $6.56 and the share price is $6.31. It meets that met­ric as well. The book plus 30% or nets plus 30% is $7.39. It’s below that and I’m using—the share price I’m using is $6.31 which was when I ran a down­load at lunchtime on Fri­day. Does­n’t have a great yield. It’s not scor­ing on that basis. I think it’s around 1.5%. Does­n’t have a founder hold or did have a founder hold­er who left the busi­ness but he’d been there for a long time as well. He left the busi­ness prob­a­bly about five years ago and timed it quite well I think.

It’s a recent upturn. It’s the low­est PE in the last six halves but the equi­ty isn’t– Has­n’t been increas­ing con­sis­tent­ly. All on all scores well and a recent upturn.  I’ve bought some.

Cameron  23:18

Good. All right, thanks for that. Chal­lenger. What else do you want to talk about?

Tony  23:24

Well, there’s lots to talk about but maybe we should do some ques­tions. We can come back to it if you like.

Cameron  23:29

Oh,  OK. We got a lot of ques­tions. Yes, OK. Dave from Newey. This is one of Dav­e’s holdover ques­tions from sev­er­al weeks ago, we’ve been slow­ly mak­ing our way through Dav­e’s ques­tions, I hope it’s still rel­e­vant. He says, exe­cu­tion of the buy. My under­stand­ing of Tony’s strat­e­gy to exe­cute a buy of QAV stock is to wait for an upturn and get in then pos­si­bly with some dol­lar cost aver­ag­ing involved. Has he thought about or does he think his bro­ker thinks about using some basic chart­ing analy­sis? Exam­ples I can think of are MML and KRM, both are range trad­ing to me. MML 38 low 80 cents to mid 90 cents, KRM low five cents to mid five cents to squeeze a cou­ple of extra per­cent of return. Has Tony ever tempt­ed to wipe out the bot­tom of the range before buy­ing? Or is a pos­i­tive uptick in sen­ti­ment the over­rid­ing fac­tor?

Tony  24:29

Yes, good ques­tion and I haven’t real­ly thought about it. My expe­ri­ence is just to get in as quick­ly as pos­si­ble because if I can see val­ue in the com­pa­ny and there’s a rea­son to buy there must be some­one else out there who will see it. I want to get in quick­ly. Yes, I do wait for an upturn day because the price is going down, you may be able to buy it cheap­er tomor­row. But yes, no inter­est­ing ques­tion.

If Dave has some expe­ri­ence he wants to share and by expe­ri­ence I mean, some­thing that’s test­ed, some­thing that’s got rules around it, not just, Well, look at this can­dle­stick chart and when it gets to the break­out bar or what­ev­er, I need to have some rules around what to do but I’m not adverse to it. I just nev­er– I’ve nev­er wait­ed around to try and finesse the buy price. Stock bro­kers. If you’re using a stock bro­ker, they have a duty to pro­vide you with the best price and that means that they should use not just the ASX but Chi‑X as well to find the best price and they should try and max­i­mize your price using their buy­ing of the stock but that’s, you’re rely­ing on your stock bro­ker from that point of view. But no, I haven’t ever tried to ana­lyze my entry or exit to finesse an extra per­cent out of it.

Cameron  25:50

I’m just mak­ing sure I under­stand what Dav­e’s talk­ing about here. I’m look­ing at the MML price over the last month. If I look at a dai­ly chart over the last month, it’s not actu­al­ly is it– It’s not even– This is like every two hours over the last month, I think on the front page of the page on Stock Doc­tor.

Tony  26:17

Yes, that’s week­ly over two years.

Cameron  26:21

No, I’ve changed it to one month. It starts at the 16th of July at 4pm. Then it goes 19th of July 11am, 19th of July 12, one, two, it’s an hourly thing over a month. If I go back to the 19th of July at 11am, it was trad­ing at 93.4 cents, then it went down to 79.7 on the 28th of July and then fur­ther down to 77 cents on the 10th of August and then cur­rent­ly it’s trad­ing around 81 and a half cents. Is Dave say­ing that if you decide you’re going to buy in to wait till it gets down to the low­er area of what it’s cur­rent­ly trad­ing in and buy­ing then?

Tony  27:15

He is but the ques­tion is, I just need some rules around that because how do you know it does­n’t show the spike up like it has on some days?

Cameron  27:24

Yes.

Tony  27:26

Then keeps going and does­n’t come back. He’s say­ing it’s range trad­ing, which it has been but when does that stop?

Cameron  27:32

Yes.

Tony  27:34

I just need some rules around it and it’s, if you look at the bot­tom, like in the bot­tom of my Stock Doc­tor chart, I have the vol­ume graph there as well and it’s pret­ty errat­ic. There’s some real­ly high vol­ume days, some real­ly low vol­ume days, and a high vol­ume day does­n’t nec­es­sar­i­ly fol­low a low vol­ume day and vice ver­sa. You can have three low vol­ume days in a row.  I’m just not—I’d need to know what was dri­ving that to make a sys­tem I guess, to exploit it.

Cameron  28:05

But your mind­set is, when you’ve decid­ed it’s a buy, you’re just going to buy it at mar­ket.

Tony  28:12

Yes, as long as the share price isn’t going down that day.  I’m doing what Dav­e’s say­ing, if the share price is going down. I wait for it to start turn­ing up again, which should hope­ful­ly be at the bot­tom end of that range he was talk­ing about. The 85 cents rather than the 95 cents.

Cameron  28:29

Yes.

Tony  28:30

Yes but I’m not try­ing to fin­ish it any more than that.

Cameron  28:35

Yes. OK. Thanks, Dave. Mark. Hi, Cam. I was won­der­ing if you could dis­cuss the buy time.

Tony  28:42

Sor­ry, Cam. Sor­ry to inter­rupt. We had one car­ried over from Doug, which we should get to as well. It was actu­al­ly before Dav­e’s on my list. Ques­tion from Doug, is there real­ly much to be gained dur­ing report­ing sea­son? I guess he means they’re from buy­ing or sell­ing. She won’t just keep abreast of the stocks they have and then wait until the end of August before invest­ing again. Or recall TK say­ing it can take time for the mar­ket to tru­ly digest and process a com­pa­ny’s num­bers.

Yes, I’m always trad­ing dur­ing report­ing sea­son because again, it’s my expe­ri­ence that the stock can move quick­ly on the day. We tend to have to wait for a cou­ple of days to get the num­bers in Stock Doc­tor before we can make a deci­sion any­way. He missed out on that first leg up or leg down I guess, either way, by wait­ing for a cou­ple of days. I like to try as soon as I can and try and cap­ture as much of that first tick up or down to I can.

My point about cap­tur­ing the mar­ket tak­ing a while to process is still true. That’s why I can buy and sell dur­ing in oth­er peri­ods out­side of report­ing sea­son because the mar­ket is still pro­cess­ing the num­bers for months after report­ing sea­son has fin­ished, espe­cial­ly when the stock price is mov­ing up or down. Those num­bers will change in terms of val­ue any­way. Yes, both things are true. I pre­fer to trade dur­ing report­ing sea­son but I’m also hap­py to trade out­side of it.

Cameron  30:14

Right. Dur­ing report­ing– Dur­ing this peri­od, you’re not wait­ing for a com­pa­ny to issue its report before you’re buy­ing some­thing?

Tony  30:29

That’s a dif­fer­ent ques­tion. Now, the ques­tion that Doug’s ask­ing is, should you trade when the num­bers first come out on a com­pa­ny by com­pa­ny basis or should you wait until the end and then stack rank them? And that’s a good ques­tion because if you’re trad­ing– Like this week, we’ve had num­bers com­ing out from say, Com bank down or EDI or Ryzen but there might be worse than the com­pa­nies that report next week, they might have bet­ter num­bers but I’m still hap­py to buy as the num­bers come out and if I have a– If I haven’t bought the thing that which would have been top with all this at the end of report­ing sea­son will also be. They’re still– It’s still a good buy.

Cameron  31:09

Right but my take on Doug’s ques­tion, I might be mis­un­der­stand­ing this bit. Like I’m buy­ing– If I’m buy­ing stocks today that aren’t one of the com­pa­nies that have pub­lished their finan­cials that have come out yet. They haven’t report­ed their June fig­ures, should I be– But they are com­ing up the top of my list as it is today, even though we don’t have their June fig­ures yet. Should I be buy­ing them because the list is the list? Or should I be not buy­ing them and wait­ing for their fig­ures to come out or wait­ing for every­body’s fig­ures to come out? You want to be ful­ly pro­tect­ed. Right.

Tony  31:53

That’s a dif­fer­ent ques­tion which I’m hap­py to talk about as well. Now, Doug’s ask­ing, do you buy dur­ing report­ing sea­son or do you wait till the end and stack rank and buy down the list?

Cameron  32:03

That’s what I’m say­ing. Is that dif­fer­ent from what I just said?

Tony  32:06

No, you just said, if some­thing has­n’t report­ed yet, do I buy it?

Cameron  32:10

Yes.

Tony  32:10

I’m not say­ing that. Well, that’s say­ing, does he buy Com­mon­wealth Bank today? Now, it’s got new fig­ures in Stock Doc­tor or is he wait­ing till the end of the month and see where the Com bank ranks high­er or low­er than some­thing else he could have bought and I’m say­ing I’m buy­ing Com bank today.

Cameron  32:25

Right.

Tony  32:26

Ques­tion which is if Com bank has­n’t report­ed yet but it’s still on our list and it’s high up. Will I buy? Yes, I would.

Cameron  32:33

OK, either way, you’re just work­ing on the fig­ures as they exist today whether they’ve report­ed or not report­ed, the list is the list, the score­cards are the score­card?

Tony  32:43

Cor­rect.

Cameron  32:43

Yes. OK. Because we’ve got a few ques­tions about that and I’ve been won­der­ing that myself, there was a bit a few peo­ple ask­ing that, obvi­ous­ly, in the last cou­ple of weeks, should we wait until report­ing sea­son’s over before we start invest­ing or should we just keep mov­ing?

Tony  32:58

Keep mov­ing. My expe­ri­ence is that if you wait, yes, you might fin­ish the order in which you buy because you’ll have all of the num­bers into the top scores list but you may have missed out on a 30% upturn for those com­pa­nies which report­ed good fig­ures.

Cameron  33:16

Yes, you may have missed out on WWG which is one that I bought just a week or two ago. It’s up to 21%. Right. [Crosstalk 00:33:27].

Tony  33:29

Well done. The con­verse too is that like I bought Sun­corp before it report­ed and then it report­ed good num­bers and shares went up.

Cameron  33:38

Yes.

Tony  33:38

Was already on the list and that’s often a thing you’ll notice in report­ing sea­son, like a week or two before the num­bers come out. If the mar­kets got a pret­ty clear indi­ca­tion, they’re going to be good num­bers, they’ll start buy­ing the shares before the report comes out and then if they’re pleas­ant­ly sur­prised, after that they’ll keep buy­ing which often hap­pens.

Cameron  34:00

Yes. All right. Thank you Day– Doug. Mark. Hi cam. I was won­der­ing if you could dis­cuss the buy tim­ing to try to reduce the risk of a stock drop­ping by greater than 5% on the next day or so. Tony says that he nor­mal­ly does­n’t buy on down days think­ing that it could be cheap­er– Much cheap­er tomor­row buys are done at 11:30am after the mar­ket is set­tled. Is there any­thing to con­sid­er? Also, what time­frame is used to decide between sell­ing with a 5% loss of breakeven? If a stock goes up the day after you bought it then goes back down to your buy price on day two. Is it a breakeven sell or do you let it go for the 5% loss before con­sid­er­ing to sell it? Cheers Mark.

Tony  34:46

I don’t real­ly have hard and fast rules on all this stuff. I know peo­ple are crav­ing them but my expe­ri­ence is that I just try and ignore it after I buy. If I hap­pen to find out, it’s dropped five to 10% and yes, I will sell it but there’s no– Is that a– The next day, a week, a month after, there’s no hard and fast rule. I would­n’t want to keep it if it drops more than 10% but there’s cas­es where I have cause I think it might turn around and it has­n’t and there’s been cas­es where I’ve sold it and it has. Yes, it’s—

Cameron  35:29

You’re hit­ting refresh every half hour after you buy it. Just like I am. [Inaudi­ble 00:35:34].

Tony  35:25

Because–

Cameron  35:38

Its nice to be rich, Tony. [Inaudi­ble 00:35:39].

Tony  35:42

That’s not the rea­son at all. You’ve got 15 to 20 stocks and you’re talk­ing about one stock drop­ping 5%. That’s 5% of 20%. It’s a hit to your port­fo­lio of 1% at the most.

Cameron  35:55

Yes but if you buy 10 stocks that day, and they all go down 10%. That’s a lot.

Tony  36:01

Well, and maybe the rule needs to relate to the con­cen­tra­tion in your port­fo­lio as well, math­e­mat­i­cal­ly. I don’t know. Yes, there’s no rule.

Cameron  36:09

Right. Rule num­ber one is, don’t lose mon­ey with the caveat that don’t dri­ve your­self crazy by hit­ting refresh on the stock every half hour.

Tony  36:21

Yes, and please don’t buy it today and then in the after­noon sell it because it went down 1%. You’ll just– Even­tu­al­ly, you will get through all your cap­i­tal doing well and try have it for a while.

Cameron  36:38

Yes, I have since we’ve been talk­ing about robot over the last cou­ple of weeks, I have sold a lot of stuff that did drop five or 10% and replaced it with some­thing else but now it’s at a point where my every­thing’s up. Like every­thing is well and tru­ly. Oh that actu­al­ly that’s not true OK. There’s a cou­ple of things that are still bor­der­line. There’s still 0.1% down, 0.01% down my total return Vita group. Come on Vita group. What are you doing to me? Lind­say, Aus­tralia is 1.28% down but every­thing else is up. I feel a lot less wor­ried about  to check it now. I’m like, OK, now it’ll just tick along until some­thing reach­es a three-point trend line. I’ll just update my sell lines every month and get alerts from Stock Doc­tor.

Tony  37:33

Yes, I mean, the way I start­ed doing this was to look for a 10%. Stop loss, I guess you’d call it. I don’t put a stop loss in. I don’t put a stop loss into the mar­ket but yes, I feel uncom­fort­able some­thing dropped more than 10% from what I paid for it. That’s not going to hap­pen in the– Usu­al­ly, in a day or two after you’ve bought, its going to hap­pen over time. I’m not watch­ing it as soon as I buy it. I’m watch­ing it over the long haul.

Cameron  38:00

Yes but I mean, I under­stand the temp­ta­tion. If you’re build­ing a port­fo­lio for the first time and you’re buy­ing stuff in it and you see it going back­wards imme­di­ate­ly to go Oh, shit, at some point, you need to cut it. If you buy it and over the next week or two weeks, it drops by 10%, then I’m  going to cut it and find some­thing else. Yes.

Tony  38:28

Yes. It’s got to be more than just about nor­mal volatil­i­ty in the share price I think too.

Cameron  38:33

Yes. Just bad luck.

Tony  38:36

If you’re look­ing at the share and like as Dave was before and it’s going up and down between 85 and 92 cents or what­ev­er the num­bers are. Don’t get too upset if it drops back to 85 cents again.

Cameron  38:47

That’s a good point. Look at the nor­mal trad­ing range of the stock and if it’s in between that, if it’s always going up between 80 and 90 cents in the last few weeks, then don’t wor­ry too much about it.

Tony  38:59

Yes, that’s a good point. I mean, I’m sure all this stuff can feed into some math some­where to real­ly find, put a fine point on these rules but I’ve just nev­er done it. It’s nev­er been an issue for me.

Cameron  39:13

The Ice­man.

Tony  39:15

Not that. It just has­n’t hap­pened yet. You will dri­ve your­self crazy if you buy some­thing and then check the price and [Inaudi­ble 00:39:25].

Cameron  39:28

It doesn’t dri­ve me crazy but it’s just extra effort and then you need to do anoth­er down­load and all that crap and then of course, bro­ker­age fees and all that stuff which– It does­n’t real­ly mat­ter for most peo­ple lis­ten­ing to this. The bro­ker­age fees are going to be a big whack but it’s only when you hit– Kids like Tay­lor and his mates that are invest­ing a small amount of mon­ey in the bro­ker­age fees a lot but they’re doing very well. They’re not com­plain­ing. Their QAV port­fo­lios are great. He tells me he keeps get­ting– Giv­ing you a hard time about what an invest­ing genius he is. What does he just say that walks in the morn­ing? Oh, Tony. Oh god Tony does­n’t know what he’s doing. I’ve only been doing this for like two months and I’m like 50% up. I’m a com­plete leg­end.

Tony  40:16

Is he real­ly 50% up in two weeks– In two months?

Cameron  40:20

Yes, he bought five stocks and three of them are up like 50%.

Tony  40:26

That’s great.

Cameron  40:26

Yes. A) I told you what to buy. B) I did it using Tony’s sys­tem. Don’t pat your­self on the back too much sweet­heart but yes, he’s jok­ing any­way but yes.

Tony  40:39

Yes.

Cameron  40:39

Oh, hey. We’re set­ting up a Bris­bane meet­up  prob­a­bly in the next week or two with all of the Bris­bane crews. Tay­lor and his mate and Hunter are com­ing along. They want to come along and there’s we got a bunch of inter­est from the folks in Bris­bane. We need to get it in before some of you peo­ple from New South Wales leak over the bor­der and put us into lock­down again. Need to get on that show right now he’s orga­niz­ing.

Tony  41:05

We can’t inspect some prop­er­ty up there.

Cameron  41:06

Yes.

Tony  41:07

Yes. Sec­ond homes.

Cameron  41:08

Sure.

Tony  41:08

I can nom­i­nate you as a bub­ble bud­dy and come and see you if you’re.

Cameron  41:12

Bub­ble. A bub­ble bud­dy?

Tony  41:15

Yes. [Cross talk 00:41:17] to nom­i­nate one per­son to vis­it your house.

Cameron  41:21

Well, that should be right. Ray was actu­al­ly a bub­ble boy when he was born. He was in a bub­ble for two months.

Tony  41:29

Oh, real­ly?

Cameron  41:30

Yes.

Tony  41:30

Wow.

Cameron  41:30

Yes, I make fun of him for that all the time. Explains a lot of his psy­cho­log­i­cal and emo­tion­al issues.

Tony  41:38

I thought the five years with­out sex explain­ing.

Cameron  41:41

Well that’s the fact that– The bub­ble boy thing explains the five years with­out sex when he’s dat­ing his wife.

Ray is my oth­er pod­cast co-host for peo­ple who don’t know who we’re talk­ing about.

Petra. Hi Cam, can we get Tony to dis­cuss his lat­est on the sell for com­mod­i­ty stocks? I think we did that one last week.

Tony  42:01

Yes, did this one last week. Yes, if you have any oth­er ques­tions give me a call. Sor­ry, put in a ques­tion.

Cameron  42:06

Sor­ry Petra, we prob­a­bly took a lit­tle bit too long to get to that but we did get to it. We got to it last week, yes. Mark again or anoth­er Mark? Hi Cam, re-above cal­cu­lat­ing annu­al­ized port­fo­lio returns. Oh, OK. This is my port­fo­lio. Yes. When cash is con­stant­ly being deposit­ed with­drawn from the port­fo­lio through­out the peri­od is obvi­ous­ly dif­fi­cult. The prob­lem with time weight­ed and mon­ey weight­ed return cal­cu­la­tions is that they ignore the source of funds for the share pur­chase e.g. pur­chas­es from port­fo­lio cap­i­tal gains and rein­vest­ed div­i­dends. That is cash, the port­fo­lio has earned as opposed to cash added from exter­nal funds. Sep­a­rat­ing the port­fo­lio’s con­tri­bu­tions from your own exter­nal con­tri­bu­tions is impor­tant for cal­cu­lat­ing Kagger/IRR. One way to allow for this is to use the Excel XIRR func­tion and then he goes into a bunch of stuff.

This isn’t flaw­less as it ignores the exact dates of div­i­dend cap­i­tal gains, deposits, port­fo­lio cost with­drawals. Obvi­ous­ly, Tony’s view and sug­ges­tions from the class of oth­er meth­ods would ben­e­fit all. A lot of this goes over my head Mark, I haven’t actu­al­ly tak­en time to play with it but Thank you for that.

I tell you what I have been doing since we last spoke about this, Tony. If I just go to Stock Doc­tor where I keep track of my port­fo­lio and they do have a time weight­ed return per annum fig­ure there, which says 41.54% and I’m just assum­ing that they’re right. I don’t know if that’s right or wrong but I’m just assum­ing that that’s a good num­ber I’m going to go with it. What do you think?

Tony  43:53

Well, I think we’ve spo­ken about this. I don’t know with­out look­ing at your port­fo­lio on Stock Doc­tor whether it’s right or not. There’s no rea­son to think it isn’t. The points that Mark was mak­ing was also cor­rect. We dealt with this a cou­ple of weeks ago, XIRR in Excel allows you to have a long for­mu­la which has all the ins and outs in your port­fo­lio and then cal­cu­lates the return giv­en all those ins and outs over the peri­od of time. That’s as typ­i­cal­ly it’s used, not nec­es­sar­i­ly for port­fo­lio analy­sis but if you’re like build­ing a cof­fee shop, you’ll have a bit of mon­ey and it gets paid a coun­cil a year out, we get your appli­ca­tions in you pay the archi­tects, you put a deposit to the builder, you build the thing, then you start mak­ing mon­ey, you oper­ate for three years. You make this much in the first year, this much in the sec­ond, this much in the third. All the time putting mon­ey in, tak­ing it out and it tells you then what’s you’re in– It’s called inter­nal rate of return which is like Kag­ger that tends to be used by Engi­neers in the main are all devel­op­ers for that very rea­son that you can front load a whole heap of costs and then have the returns ramp up and work out whether it was a decent project or not.  You can do the same thing for a port­fo­lio as Mark says.

The oth­er way, which I’m hap­py to do for you want to send me $3, just to break it down over time peri­od. You had this much mon­ey invest­ed for this week and it was a start­ing bal­ance and a clos­ing bal­ance.  That means you weren’t that amount of return per week and then wait­ed for how much cap­i­tal you have for that week and then do it for every week, and then get a weight­ed aver­age over the whole lot, which is anoth­er way of doing it.

Cameron  45:42

Yes, look, I don’t real­ly care that much.  I’m not going to put you to any of it. If I could sit down and try and nut it out myself and run it past you. If I get time to scratch myself. I’ll do that. For right now, I’m just assum­ing that Stock Doctor’s some­what cor­rect and it’s– I know my port­fo­lio is big­ger now than when I start­ed and what I’ve put into it. It’s good enough.

Mark, if it’s the same mark, I think Mark Dug­more did send me a spread­sheet of his own port­fo­lio where he did some­thing like this to work it out.  I can appre­ci­ate that and I can use that as a tem­plate to try and build my own and see if the num­ber is close to the Stock Doc­tor num­ber and if it is, then I can stop wor­ry­ing about it.

Tony  46:28

Well, if it works, throw some­thing up on our web­site too so oth­er peo­ple can use it.

Cameron  46:32

I will. Thank you Mark. Anoth­er Mark ques­tion. Not sure if it’s the same Mark. We have lots of Marks. We’ll go to this oth­er one by Mark. TK men­tioned he cur­rent­ly holds some Aure­lia that was now below his pur­chase price as is mine and also more than 5% below his pur­chase price as is mine and he was keep­ing his Aure­lia posi­tion Robert as a reminder to adhere to rule one. What TK did­n’t say was how he will deal with sell­ing the Aure­lia posi­tion if he has to? I’m pre­sum­ing he’ll wait until it reach­es its three-point trend line sell line which will be greater than 5% below the pur­chase price rather than just sell now and cut his loss­es. I’m try­ing to get a han­dle on what to do with posi­tions when I’ve missed the less than 5% rule. Wait for 3PTL sell on breach or hope that it goes up? Cheers, Mark.

Tony  47:25

Yes, well, you can use a 10% stop loss for a start or sell point which is gen­er­al­ly more I do. Yes, Aure­lia. There are a cou­ple of cas­es. I think Romelus resources was one with a dum­my port­fo­lio where it got back to what we paid for it or slight­ly less than that after hold­ing it for a long time and I said let’s dump it and buy some­thing else and then it sur­round­ed almost the next day.

Cameron  47:53

Yes.

Tony  47:54

Then, it comes time for me to sell it real­ly and I go, Oh, it could be anoth­er instead of apply­ing my rules and it’s gone down since then. I’m wait­ing for it to turn up again. I would– Yes, I would sell it for all the nor­mal rea­son. If it breach­es its three-point trend sell line, I’ll just take the loss. If there’s bad news com­ing out, I’ll sell it but I’m prob­a­bly at this stage sell it if I need a an off­set against cap­i­tal gains–

Cameron  48:25

Yes, right.

Tony  48:26

At some stage. They’re the rea­sons why I’d sell from now but hope­ful­ly it turns around. All the num­bers are good for it.  Hope­ful­ly it turns around. I got some­thing from my stock­bro­ker from research into Aure­lia and the ana­lyst that val­ues was say­ing or it’s now ord minette was say­ing that peo­ple don’t under­stand the val­ue of Aure­lia because it’s actu­al­ly not just a gold com­pa­ny. It’s got a whole heap of met­als, it’s cop­per and it’s half a dozen oth­er met­als in there as well. It should be of a dif­fer­ent val­u­a­tion pro­file. I’m hope­ful­ly that mes­sage gets spread far and wide and Aure­lia will turn around again.

Cameron  49:06

Well, the way it’s cur­rent­ly look­ing, it’s a 33 cents and I think it’s sell price is prob­a­bly about 28 cents. It’s not far off its sell price.

Tony  49:16

No.

Cameron  49:19

But if you, the bot­tom line there is if you missed it drop­ping below its buy price, then you’re just  going to hold on to it and hope it climbs back up and if it does­n’t and it hits its sell price, take your licks.

Tony  49:38

Yes, exact­ly and I mean– Hope­ful­ly, I mean, the sell price for a stock like this, the sell line is usu­al­ly rock bot­tom. Yes, the trend is way down. It gets to that price in the COVID times or GFC time. If it does cross, it’s pret­ty bad. You’d sell it but hope­ful­ly it’ll turn around. Hope isn’t real­ly a strat­e­gy when it comes to shar­ing. We’ll just apply the rules.

Cameron  50:05

Come on.

Tony  50:06

[Inaudi­ble 00:50:06] Rule one.

Cameron  50:09

Hope worked for all of the after­pay investors well. The ones that did­n’t get to the top any­way. J

James. Hi Cameron, con­tin­ue to enjoy the QAV club, loved the new pulled pork seg­ment. The expla­na­tion is suc­cinct and easy to under­stand.

Tony  50:28

James has been short­ing our pulled porks prob­a­bly and mak­ing mon­ey.

Cameron  50:32

That’s  going to be clever if you did, yes. I’m putting that in the check­list now, has Tony done a pulled pork on it recent­ly? If he has, give it a minus one. I’ve been look­ing at com­modi­ties, try­ing to match the upward trends with stocks on the check­list and was inter­est­ed to hear yours and/or TK’s thoughts.

No one wants to hear my thoughts, James, I know you’re just being polite. Thank you for that. One, nat­ur­al gas looks to be gain­ing momen­tum in terms of demand but this is not com­ing through share prices to this point but hope­ful­ly, this should even­tu­ate CTPH, ZN, and STO. All look like­ly to ben­e­fit to my experience—Inexperienced eye. What do you think about nat­ur­al gas, Tony?

Tony  51:10

Yes, it’s def­i­nite­ly the com­mod­i­ty itself def­i­nite­ly on the increase but price wise, but those three stocks, I don’t know cen­tral petro­le­um, CTP very well but Ryzen and San­tos both have oth­er issues. Oth­er things that play San­tos in par­tic­u­lar with its pro­posed merg­er with oil search, plus the crude oil prices top­ping out I think, poten­tial­ly with­out try­ing to make a pre­dic­tion. I think that’s put a cap on Ryzen and San­tos. We went through this last week though on the great rota­tion.  James goes on to talk about nick­el and pal­la­di­um and zim­plats because of pal­la­di­um but zim­plats is actu­al­ly a plat­inum com­pa­ny. It’s the– Plat­inum price has gone through its sell line.

The one that is going up which is men­tioned is alu­minum and the only alu­minum stock we have on our check­list is Capral which has done real­ly well and even though Capral is a bit of a proxy for the alu­minum price because it takes the alu­minum and then makes alu­minum sid­ing and oth­er prod­ucts out of it and gut­ters and things like that to sell. It’s been doing well, your main price is ris­ing which means that Capral prob­a­bly does have some pric­ing strength there and can pass on price increas­es but that’s the only one I can think of.

There are a cou­ple of com­pa­nies that have expo­sure to some of these increas­ing com­modi­ties, like there is an alu­minum com­pa­ny IWC, but it’s way down. It’s like a score of 0.01 or some­thing on the check­list.

Cameron  52:52

Yikes.

Tony  52:52

West­ern areas is anoth­er one. Very low score and they haven’t done well and I think that makes sense to me because they score bad­ly even though upturn in the com­mod­i­ty prices isn’t going to save them, I don’t think.

Cameron  53:06

Right.

Tony  53:07

I have oth­er issues. Yes, we pret­ty much cov­ered up on the rest of that ques­tion last week.

Cameron  53:13

Well, what we’re talk­ing about nat­ur­al gas? I just went into Stock Doctor’s com­modi­ties, I can find nat­ur­al gas futures cur­rent. Would that be the one you’d be look­ing at?

Tony  53:24

I think. From mem­o­ry, I’ll go and have a look.

Cameron  53:27

OK, it’s ng#, is the code for that. We’ve got a cou­ple of oth­er NGs.

Tony  53:36

OK, it’s inter­est­ing because I know we say an oil search, they often price nat­ur­al gas con­tracts and pegged them to the oil price. It’s sur­pris­ing that oil is turned down a lit­tle bit, nat­ur­al gas is still going up but I’m not that famil­iar with the nat­ur­al gas mar­ket.

Cameron  53:53

Well, accord­ing to this chart, nat­ur­al gas futures card has come back a lit­tle bit this month, it was at four bucks at the end of July. It’s now at 386 but gen­er­al­ly, it’s been going up since the COVID cough.

Tony  54:08

Yes, I’ll just call it up. Now, I would be using that ng# in Stock Doc­tor which is a futures con­tract.

Cameron  54:14

Right.

Tony  54:15

It does look a lot like the old price chart too. You could prob­a­bly over­lay it.

Cameron  54:19

Yes, it’s come back a lit­tle bit more hes­i­tant than that.

Tony  54:24

Yes, your price may have come back a lit­tle bit from there.

Cameron  54:29

How do you over­lay it? Can you actu­al­ly over­lay it with Stock on them?

Tony  54:32

I’m just hav­ing a look. There used to be a com­pare. It’s not giv­ing me that option though.

Cameron  54:38

If I look at—

Tony  54:39

Might only be avail­able for stocks.

Cameron  54:41

If I look at the Crude Oil Futures, it’s– You’re right. It’s peaked at the end of June of the end of July but has been com­ing back. It’s like a month ahead. The sell price though for Crude Oil Futures cur­rent is a lot clos­er to the cur­rent price than it is for gas.

Tony  55:05

I’m look­ing out for oil. I usu­al­ly try and find Brent crude which affects Aus­trali­a’s oil price.

Cameron  55:11

Right.

Tony  55:11

Stock Doc­tor has a North Amer­i­can Brent crude price which is a bit of a sur­prise because Brent, I think comes out of the UK nor­mal­ly. Yes, it looks a lit­tle bit like the

Cameron  55:24

Oh, yes. It does. Exact­ly the same. Yes.

Tony  55:28

Yes. They are both above their sell lines but they both turned down in the last month.

Cameron  55:35

Alright, well, hope­ful­ly that answers what you want­ed, Jame. We’re at an hour now. Do you want to put– Roll a line under it there? Do you want to do a cou­ple more? What do you want to do?

Tony  55:49

I can do a cou­ple more.

Cameron  55:51

Tony  55:51

If you want to, you got time.

Cameron  55:52

Yes, for you always. Ben says, Hey, CR and TK. Ques­tion for dis­cus­sion please, does TK take qual­i­ty of man­age­ment into con­sid­er­a­tion and not just skin in the game? Tony’s just shak­ing his head there.

Tony  56:10

Well, the num­bers tell me if man­age­men­t’s any good. Yes. Oth­er­wise, you’re assess­ing a politi­cian basi­cal­ly if you’re try­ing to assess what a CEO is like.

Cameron  56:18

Well, Ben asks, more com­mon in the small­er end of the mar­ket where man­age­ment may hold a sig­nif­i­cant amount of shares but it’s being run as a lifestyle com­pa­ny, would TK steer away from a high QAV scor­ing com­pa­ny where a board mem­ber may have pre­vi­ous­ly been involved in a failed busi­ness or being giv­en the AST from anoth­er com­pa­ny? You’re say­ing you’re, you’re just shak­ing your head? No.

Tony  56:38

Yes. The first ques­tion there was about com­pa­nies being run as a lifestyle com­pa­ny. The only one I can think of that fits that bill will be Har­vey Nor­man and that’s a bit harsh on Jer­ry Har­vey. I don’t want to besmirch his name. It’s been alleged that he runs it as a lifestyle com­pa­ny because he invests in.

Cameron  56:57

What does that mean? I don’t even know what that means. What does that mean?

Tony  57:00

Oh, it’s being run to ben­e­fit the own­er.  Like Har­vey Nor­man’s case, they have tak­en it which is basi­cal­ly a home fur­ni­ture and elec­tri­cal retail­er but they’ve owned rur­al prop­er­ties where hors­es can be adjust­ed.

Cameron  57:17

The com­pa­ny owns the cat­tle prop­er­ties?

Tony  57:20

Yes.

Cameron  57:20

Then he goes and spends time on the farm on the week­end just to make sure it’s being run well?

Tony  57:25

Well, alleged­ly. It’s—

Cameron  57:28

Well, no there would be noth­ing wrong with then doing some­thing close to the wind here.

Tony  57:32

Well, the lifestyle com­pa­nies.

Cameron  57:33

Well, if the com­pa­ny owns prop­er­ties, he’s the CEO, he’s allowed to go and spend time on those prop­er­ties. There’s noth­ing wrong with that.

Tony  57:40

Yes and he would always argue that invest­ing in cat­tle prop­er­ties is a valid invest­ment. He’s just stack­ing up the returns ver­sus open­ing anoth­er Har­vey Nor­man.

Cameron  57:51

War­ren Buf­fett own­ing seized can­dy and a big steak in Coca Cola, right. Are they lifestyle? They seem to be lifestyle invest­ments for him but they’ve also done very well as invest­ments.

Tony  58:02

Well, the clas­sic thing is cor­po­rate jet. When a com­pa­ny, the CEO goes out and buys a cor­po­rate jet, which a lot of our resource com­pa­nies do on the basis that they need to fly into the Pil­bara and the Kim­ber­ley and fly to the States and I’d say, total­ly get it but they don’t dis­close the usage of the cor­po­rate jet. Who uses it? Where they fly, etc.? Is that a lifestyle deci­sion or not? And Buf­fett had a cor­po­rate jet until net jets came along and he refused to buy one and then he bought one and call it the inde­fen­si­ble and then after he used it for a cou­ple years, he called it the indis­pens­able. That was def­i­nite­ly just to help his lifestyle.

Cameron  58:47

Yes.

Tony  58:48

Then he sold at night and when Berk­shire Hath­away bought into net jets.

Cameron  58:53

Yes, when are you going to buy us the QAV jet?

Tony  58:59

The QAV paper plane?

Cameron  59:01

Come on.

Tony  59:02

Just when you stop pay­ing me.

Cameron  59:03

Just a junior jet. It does­n’t have to be like a fan­cy one. Just the junior QAV jet.

Tony  59:12

Yes. Any­way, get going back to the lifestyle issue. If a com­pa­ny did come up on our QAV check­list and the num­bers were good, I’d still buy it.

Cameron  59:23

Yes.

Tony  59:23

That could be an issue with lifestyle. The com­pa­ny own­er was dri­ving lav­ish com­pa­ny cars and cor­po­rate jets and all the rest. That’s an issue to take up at the AGM I guess but I can’t real­ly think of many where that hap­pens. I mean, they’re not good com­pa­nies usu­al­ly. Har­vey Nor­man has been on our top scor­ers list but I don’t think it’s there now.

Cameron  59:45

No, I actu­al­ly– They came up on my list this morn­ing and I don’t think they passed sen­ti­ment but if you’re look­ing at– Even if the com­pa­ny is spend­ing a lot of mon­ey on farms and jets and all that stuff but their fig­ures still stack up and they get to the top of that list, then they’re doing it. Does­n’t mat­ter real­ly.

Tony  1:00:04

Cor­rect. They’re doing some­thing right.

Cameron  1:00:06

Yes, I’ll buy and then the oth­er ques­tion that and I’m sor­ry, I should say, I’m not alleg­ing any­thing about Har­vey Nor­man or Jer­ry Har­vey at all. I’m just pick­ing out an exam­ple which has been talked about a lot in the finan­cial press about Har­vey Nor­man buy­ing into non-retail assets.

The sec­ond part of the ques­tion from Ben was, will I invest in a com­pa­ny where a board mem­ber may have pre­vi­ous­ly been involved in a failed busi­ness? Absolute­ly, Cook­ie For­est went bank­rupt in a nick­el min­ing com­pa­ny about 20 years ago and Fortes­cue emerged after that and peo­ple still backed him and it’s gone two huge things and anoth­er guy called John Simon. Was he John from Ozzie home loans, did the same thing. Set up a home loan com­pa­ny, went bank­rupt, and then kept at it and build a big busi­ness out of it which was sold off to Com bank a few years ago.  No, I give peo­ple a sec­ond chance.

Again, I’m look­ing at the num­bers. If the num­bers are good, then yes, I mean.

Cameron  1:01:11

I think [inaudi­ble 01:01:11].

Tony  1:01:11

That’s the best judge of man­age­ment.

Cameron  1:01:13

Yes. Most of the sta­tis­tics say most suc­cess­ful entre­pre­neurs have failed three or four times I think before they–

Tony  1:01:20

Cor­rect.

Cameron  1:01:21

Get the right one.

Tony  1:01:23

They often– Like if you have writ­ten inter­views with peo­ple like John Simon, he said, it was the best thing that ever hap­pened to me, I learned so much. I knew what to avoid. I knew what the mis­takes were. I’m not  going to make them again. Yes and that’s why if you’re run­ning a com­pa­ny and some­one stuffs up, if they do it fraud­u­lent­ly or stu­pid­ly, you got to let them go but if you– If they’re act­ing in the best and hon­est inten­tions and they made a mis­take, well, it’s what do we learn. Now you’ve made that mis­take, you’re not  going to make it again. Why would I sack you? You’re the only per­son in this busi­ness who’s suf­fered from it.

Cameron  1:01:55

Well, I remem­ber Bill Gates’s day run­ning Microsoft before he got into the busi­ness of implant­i­ng invis­i­ble microchips in peo­ple through vac­cines. Chi­nese microchips through vac­cines.

Tony  1:02:06

Oh, we can track them. We can see if they go into their bub­ble bud­dy’s place and sec­ond homes on the week­end.

Cameron  1:02:14

That’s it. You have to use a Win­dows phone which don’t exist any­more but if you can get, if you have one of the Win­dows phones, you can do that.

He used to have– I was track­ing the chip with Bill Gates has and it keeps com­ing up with Jef­frey Epstein.

Oh, that whole thing is fas­ci­nat­ing. The whole Melin­da divorce and the alle­ga­tions that have been swirling around that it’s fas­ci­nat­ing. Any­how where I was going with that is he used to the pol­i­cy in Microsoft was, a senior man­ag­er that had a big val­ue with one of their divi­sions or some­thing like that would get pro­mot­ed.

Tony  1:02:54

Right.

Cameron  1:02:54

Yes. His Bil­l’s phi­los­o­phy was, well, you’re a smart guy or girl and you’re prob­a­bly not going to make the same mis­take twice.

Tony  1:03:02

Cor­rect.

Cameron  1:03:03

We’ve just—We’ve just lost $50 mil­lion on your edu­ca­tion. Now we want to see a return for that.

Tony  1:03:10

I think that’s real­ly smart because as I say, as long as long as it was­n’t stu­pid or was­n’t fraud­u­lent, then yes, they’ve learned some­thing very valu­able.

Cameron  1:03:18

Yes. Samuel. Botswana Cameron, I would first like to thank you and TK for the excel­lent work on the pod­cast. I’ve been lis­ten­ing since pret­ty much the begin­ning and believe I have not missed a sin­gle episode. Well, we will get a badge made up for you Sam. That’s impres­sive that you stuck with this this long. My ques­tion for the show is about the CBA announce­ment regard­ing an off mar­ket buy­back, would it be pos­si­ble civ­il play to run through the dif­fer­ent ben­e­fits and per­haps neg­a­tive sides of this process for this share­hold­er? Mer­ci beau­coup.

Tony  1:03:54

Well, thanks, Samuel. I’m glad you’re enjoy­ing the pod­cast and learn­ing stuff. I was hop­ing some­one would­n’t ask this ques­tion because it’s going to be a detailed answer, unfor­tu­nate­ly, and pref­ace with the fact you need to get finan­cial advice on this one or at least tax advice on this one because dif­fer­ent out­comes depend­ing on if you’re invest­ing through a Super­fund, like a self man­aged Super­fund or if you’re invest­ing in your own name, or a com­pa­ny name, it all have dif­fer­ent treat­ments for frank­ing cred­its. This is all about frank­ing cred­its in the main. Six months or  ago, I said a lot of these com­pa­nies have frank­ing cred­it bal­ances. A frank­ing cred­it aris­es when the com­pa­ny’s paid tax and then it can go out on a div­i­dend  that the receiv­er of the div­i­dend gets a cred­it for the tax that’s been paid by the com­pa­ny. But if the total prof­it does­n’t go out as a div­i­dend, then the frank­ing cred­its build up on the bal­ance sheets of com­pa­nies.

What Com bank has done is they’ve trot­ted off to the Aus­tralian tax office and said, we would like to issue us a spe­cial div­i­dend. We’re going to do was a share buy­back, though. It’s a path through the tax code in Aus­tralia, which allows com­pa­nies to do this and it’s hap­pened before with BHP and a few of the oth­er big com­pa­nies, Tel­stra, I think did it too and it’s a way of releas­ing frank­ing cred­its which would build up on their bal­ance sheet.

In this case, Com Bank has been doing very well recent­ly and it’s now well with­in the guide­lines that APRA, the Aus­tralian Pru­den­tial reg­u­la­tor has set for banks in terms of how much equi­ty they must hold and the bank is say­ing we’re going to reduce our equi­ty down a lit­tle bit to come back with­in the APRA guide­lines and we’re going to do that by offer­ing a buy­back which is main­ly treat­ed as a spe­cial div­i­dend, which means the large part of the pay­ment rule mak­er some­one who wants to sell their shares back to us is in a ful­ly franked div­i­dend and long sto­ry short, that means, for exam­ple, if you’re on a Super­fund or self man­aged Super­fund, the frank­ing cred­its get added to the buy price of the buy­back.

The way this is going to work and it’s I think from mem­o­ry, today is the last day you can buy Com Bank shares and be eli­gi­ble to be ten­der­ing into the buy­back and it’s an off mar­ket buy­back. The way it works is that next month, I think it is, the Com Bank will allow you to either enter into a ten­der to sell your shares back to them at between a 10 and 14% dis­count or wait until the end and once the aver­age buy prices have worked out, sell your shares back to them at that price.

Of the amount they pay you, the Aus­tralian Tax Office has ruled that $21.66 is a cap­i­tal com­po­nent and the remain­der is by– Is con­sid­ered a spe­cial div­i­dend and is ful­ly franked. Cur­rent share price is 100 and 304 bucks, a 10% dis­count brings it back to in a 90 some­where. Take off your $22 and about some­where around $67 is going to be a div­i­dend treat­ed as a div­i­dend by the tax office and is ful­ly Frank.

Now the way to work out what the frank­ing is worth is you divide by 0.7. Com bank’s been pay­ing tax at the cor­po­rate tax rate of 30%. You’re adding back to 30% by divid­ing by 0.7. $67 div­i­dend grossed up by divid­ing by 0.7 and then adding back the $21.66 Cap­i­tal com­po­nent, do all the math and it comes out to be worth about $117 to some­one who is able to claim all the frank­ing cred­its, which you are in a Super­fund.

You’re actu­al­ly get­ting an above mar­ket buy­back, even though you’ve accept­ed a 10 to 14% dis­count, if you can get a rebate for all the frank­ing cred­its. Now, it will dif­fer per­son, indi­vid­ual by indi­vid­ual or hold­er by hold­er. I have shares in my Super­fund, I’ll get maybe $112 worth of val­ue in the buy­back because of the way the frank­ing cred­its work but if the shares are held in my own name, I can only put the frank­ing cred­its against my tax return.  That may or may not reduce my tax and I’ve got to work out what my tax might be in and decide whether get­ting a frank­ing cred­it reduces my tax or not because I might be pay­ing tax this year and depend­ing on how things are struc­tured and then fam­i­ly trusts work a sim­i­lar way.

There’s dif­fer­ent tax treat­ments for frank­ing cred­its and it’s dif­fer­ent depend­ing on whether you’re earn­ing a lot or only a lit­tle in your own name as to how much ben­e­fit the frank­ing cred­it will have to you. It real­ly is hors­es for cours­es and that’s why they allow peo­ple to ten­der into the process, some or all of their shares or none of their shares and depend­ing on this the way that shares are held, the ben­e­fit will dif­fer. That’s from the share­hold­er side of things.

How does it help the com­pa­ny? Well, they’re buy­ing back $6 bil­lion worth of shares, their mar­ket caps about 180 some­thing bil­lion dol­lars, the share price should go up by 3% once this is all fin­ished, but it takes six weeks to hap­pen and 3% is not a huge vari­a­tion in the share price. May or may not be notice­able in the wash of things in terms of how it will ben­e­fit some­one who does­n’t sell into the buy­back. Most peo­ple focus on whether they can make an added pre­mi­um by sell­ing the shares into the ten­der process.

It’s a detailed answer, Samuel you need to work it out for your­self. You need to work out what you’re hold­ing is? What tax you’re pay­ing? What thresh­old you’re at and how much those frank­ing cred­its are worth to you?

Cameron  1:10:00

Or ask your finan­cial plan­ner or tax accoun­tant.

Tony  1:10:05

Exact­ly.

Cameron  1:10:05

Spend $1,000 get­ting an answer from them on it and say.

Cameron  1:10:08

Yes, and the good news is that will be talked about in the finan­cial press. I think Stock Doc­tor have done some­thing on it in a very gen­er­al way. Be sur­prised if you can’t find some­thing on the inter­webs about it. You can cal­cu­late it, yes.

Cameron  1:10:28

Oh.

Tony  1:10:29

In fact, I did. When I was doing, look­ing at the Com­mon­wealth Bank book­let, and what the details were today. There’s a hot­line you can call to talk through with them. They won’t give you tax advice but they’ll prob­a­bly explain things to you one on one.

Cameron  1:10:44

Well, thank you, Tony. Hope that helps. Sam. Can I ask a ques­tion? [Cross talk 01:1:56]. This was actu­al­ly the top I take pri­or­i­ty, but I did and I was actu­al­ly in last week’s show and then we did­n’t get to it last week. MXI’s five for one con­sol­i­da­tion. As an own­er of MXI, Tay­lor called me up and said, What does this mean? Is this good? And I said, Yes, it’s good to give why and then I tried to explain it, and I got con­fused. Can you explain why con­sol­i­da­tions are good again?

Cameron  1:11:28

I don’t think they are per­son­al­ly but it’s just all psy­chol­o­gy. Well, the share price is in the cents, it’s like 50 or 60 cents and  when they con­sol­i­date, it’ll go up to $2.50 or some­thing like that. It’s just real­ly try­ing to get around peo­ple’s per­cep­tion that if the, if a com­pa­ny has a share price in the cents, it’s a small com­pa­ny and it’s not worth invest­ing in but it’s the same com­pa­ny with the same val­u­a­tion, it’s just changed the way num­ber of shares it has on issue.

Some­one else asked the ques­tion about what the sell price would be for MXI because its share price went up  dra­mat­i­cal­ly after they announced that I was sell­ing a trail­er parts busi­ness and, yes, long sto­ry short, the way I do it is, I think the num­bers are some­thing like the MXI is return­ing to the share­hold­ers, the pro­ceeds from the sell of its trail­er parts busi­ness and some prop­er­ty asso­ci­at­ed with it. It’s about I think it’s 12 and a half cents per share from mem­o­ry. I would sim­ply– Until it’s payable, I would sim­ply add that to the sell price and raise it up. It’ll still be a long way below where the share price is cur­rent­ly.

Cameron  1:12:40

Yes, I get the sell price at the moment are rough­ly about 37, 38 cents. It’s cur­rent­ly trad­ing at 74 cents.

Tony  1:12:49

Right. If you add 12 and a half to that, 34 sell price, it’s still going to be 44, 40, 50 cents, which is 50. Yes. The oth­er thing now is that as each month rolls for­ward, that sell price will go up, I think too.

Cameron  1:13:07

Yes.

Tony  1:13:10

But that’s about all I can sug­gest.

Cameron  1:13:11

Right. OK, the oth­er– Prob­a­bly the only  oth­er com­ment I’d make is if it has­n’t hap­pened in Max­i­trans case because it’s still on the buy­er list or on the top scor­ers list but if the share price had risen  dra­mat­i­cal­ly, so quick­ly that we sell right down to a real­ly low QAV score. I might con­sid­er tak­ing some prof­its in that case but it’s not the case with Max­i­trans.

Cameron  1:13:35

Right. Thank you for that. Steve’s ques­tion.

Tony  1:13:43

Don’t bom­bard us with, what are the rules for doing that? It’s, yes, com­mon sense, rule one.

Cameron  1:13:50

Right. Do you want to do, knock Steve’s off? Or do you want to?

Tony  1:13:54

Just last one, isn’t it?

Cameron  1:13:55

Yes.

Tony  1:13:55

No, it’s the last one.

Cameron  1:13:56

1. This is from Steve. Hey, guys, I know you’ve cov­ered in the past but to be real­ly help­ful to give you a lat­est thoughts on stocks breach­ing the three-points sells when they go ex div­i­dend specif­i­cal­ly, Sun and Ben. They’re both buys now, of course, but both go X‑DIV either today or in a cou­ple of weeks, which will prob­a­bly get them close to this sell lines.

Tony  1:14:21

I would add the div­i­dend back until you get paid it because it’s mon­ey at your own and some­times like espe­cial­ly with banks, for some rea­son, I’m not sure why they like to hang on to mon­ey. You don’t get the div­i­dend bank for a while. I’m not sure what the case is with Sun­corp and Bendi­go but I know with some banks, they declare a div­i­dend in March and you get on the first of July, which suits their tax treat­ment. Maybe not yours, but any­way.  Yes, I would add that that div­i­dend back in terms of work­ing out the sale.

Cameron  1:14:54

What does that mean?

Tony  1:14:54

Doesn’t always.

Cameron  1:14:55

Can you can you explain that?

Tony  1:14:56

1. Yes, if a Bendi­go Bank pays a div­i­dend of $1. I’m not sure what the num­bers are here and it drops. When it goes ex div­i­dend it drops by $1, I’d still add that dol­lar back to its share price when you’re work­ing out the sell line.

Cameron  1:15:13

Right.

Tony  1:15:14

You don’t want it to because all the shares will drop by the div­i­dend. In fact, a lot of shares will drop by more than a div­i­dend because there’s a whole tribe of peo­ple out there who put togeth­er invest­ment port­fo­lios, high yield invest­ment port­fo­lios for retirees, and they just move on then to the next stock that is going to pay a div­i­dend and I’ll sell out straight away. You can get some sell­ing pres­sure 2hen the stock goes ex div­i­dend. Rio Tin­to is a clas­sic exam­ple of that pulled up num­bers on Rio today, it paid a– Its yield was about six or 7% and the share price is down 10% after it went ex div­i­dend. I think that’s prob­a­bly a com­bi­na­tion of the iron ore price going down as well but it’s not unusu­al to see a com­pa­ny dropped by more than its div­i­dend yield. Yes, if you before you sell it, add the div­i­dend back and just make sure it’s still above that three-point trend line and also to be aware, when you’re buy­ing and sell­ing dur­ing com­pa­ny report­ing sea­son what the div­i­dend dates are, because it might suit you know­ing that a com­pa­ny is going to go ex div­i­dend and prob­a­bly fall by more than the div­i­dend, poten­tial­ly any way to buy it after that hap­pens. You’ll get it cheap­er. If you don’t need a div­i­dend.

Cameron  1:16:30

But you don’t get the div­i­dend. Yes, in that case.

Tony  1:16:30

But you don’t get the div­i­dend. Yes.

Cameron  1:16:34

You said ear­li­er added back until you get the mon­ey. What changes when you get the mon­ey?

Tony  1:16:42

Well, when you– When the share price has dropped by the div­i­dend amount and you haven’t been paid, that mon­ey is just float­ing out in the ether there. When you get paid, you’ve got the share what­ev­er price it is plus the mon­ey in your bank and you might hold again. If it was still below its three-point trend­line then I would­n’t be any back­ward div­i­dend cause you’re dou­ble count­ing the div­i­dend. If that makes sense.

Cameron  1:17:05

Right. You’ve got the mon­ey and the price is the price then.

Tony  1:17:10

Yes and gen­er­al­ly like it’s very rare to receive the div­i­dend in your account quick­ly. It’s usu­al­ly a month at least between when they go ex div­i­dend and you get paid and that’s an issue the ASA should be tak­ing up as a cause I think, that’s just wrong. Any­way, it hap­pens

Cameron  1:17:27

Men­tioned that before.

Tony  1:17:29

Yes and I’m adding it back to the share price until I receive it just as a way of mak­ing sure I’m not mak­ing a rash deci­sion with­out tak­ing into account the full val­ue of what I’m get­ting.

Cameron  1:17:43

All right. Well, that is a full lid TK. Big Show again. You must be exhaust­ed.

Tony  1:17:54

No, I’m good.

Cameron  1:17:57

Oh, that good.

Tony  1:17:57

I’m going to cook din­ner now.

Cameron  1:16:30

You’re still cook­ing?

Tony  1:17:58

Day tomor­row.

Cameron  1:17:59

Oh, is it real­ly?

Tony  1:17:59

Yes.

Cameron  1:17:59

I wish her a hap­py birth­day from us. What are you going to do to cel­e­brate tomor­row? You’re going to invite your sun­bathing neigh­bor up from.

Tony  1:18:13

Oh, that was an eye­ful. I tell you what. It’s just. Oh my Gosh.

No, I mean, she can’t hear me but we have a cater­er that we’ve used here before, she’s bring­ing out a spe­cial– Drop­ping off a spe­cial meal for us for the two of us tomor­row night and a birth­day cake.

Cameron  1:18:29

From the slip­py spoon place or dif­fer­ent one?

Tony  1:18:33

No, it’s a dif­fer­ent one. Jack­ie’s cater­ing.

Cameron  1:18:36

Right, but you’ve been cook­ing. What are you cook­ing tonight, TK?

Tony  1:18:40

I’ll see what­ev­er meat needs to be used. Just fol­low­ing expiry dates, just try­ing to stay ahead of them but I’m think­ing it might be a sir­loin roast.

Cameron  1:18:48

Oh, very nice.

Tony  1:18:50

Lots of veg­gies. Eat­ing real­ly healthy these days. Yes, fruit for break­fast.

Cameron  1:18:54

That’s great.

Tony  1:18:54

Skip­ping break­fast, fruit for lunch, and veg­gies and a bit of meat for din­ner.

Cameron  1:18:58

Tell you the best thing a cou­ple of scotch­es. Best thing we’ve done is we bought a Vita­mix a month or son­ago and we’ve been hav­ing green smooth­ies a cou­ple of times a day. Just throw a bunch of spinach and broc­coli and cel­ery and some nuts and a bit of fruit in it  blend it up. It’s great. Get­ting all right veg­gies. Yes, I wish I’d had one of those years ago.

Yes, well, I think we should. I know we– The show’s going on but we should do a Tony’s recipe of the day from now on. When we’re doing this? See what you’re cook­ing. I want pho­tos post­ed up on Twit­ter and Insta­gram.

I want­ed, I mean I just quick­ly to wrap up, Vexa, our port­fo­lio and the Vexa looks like we’ve com­plete­ly crashed all the way back to the ASX. We’re at 4%. I did email than the Vexa guys last week and said I can’t make sense of this. If I look at one of their charts. It does­n’t seem like we’ve dropped more than about 5%. If I look at this chart, it looks like we’ve dropped all the way back down. I’m fol­low­ing that up with them.

Cameron  1:20:03

I did have a look at it. The port­fo­lio dol­lar val­ue still looks right and it could­n’t have dropped back that far based on that dol­lar val­ue. I think there’s some­thing screw­ing.

Cameron  1:20:11

Some­thing screwy. That’s why I’m not post­ing in Vexa updates at the moment and your rec­om­men­da­tion was the strand.

Tony  1:20:20

The stamp.

Cameron  1:20:21

The stamp.

Tony  1:20:21

Ama­zon prime. Yes, pret­ty good.

Cameron  1:20:25

Mine, I just still pris­tine. I watched on Sat­ur­day night blood sim­ple first cone broth­ers. I had­n’t seen it for 25 years, com­plete­ly for­got­ten all about it. It was Joel and Ethan Cohen’s first film, Bar­ry son­nen­feld first film as he was the do PR before he became a direc­tor, and Fran­cis McDor­mand first film and it’s good MMM Walsh in it. Dan had died. MMM Walsh is one of my favorites. I love him. He nev­er fails to be fan­tas­tic. Just a great film on every lev­el, like the cin­e­matog­ra­phy was great. That sto­ry, the act­ing just real­ly 1984 but it holds up real­ly well.

Tony  1:21:10

Very dif­fer­ent, isn’t it? Yes. When we get get­ting dragged along by a friend to go and see it and I thought, What’s this and com­ing up think­ing, Fan­tas­tic.

Cameron  1:21:18

Yes, real­ly good. Yes and it does­n’t have the same lev­el of humor that their films have had since after that when they did rais­ing Ari­zona. There’s always been a lot of humor in their films. I think after that, except for maybe No Coun­try for Old Men, which was a lit­tle bit more seri­ous. Mike McCarthy was a con­nec­tor. Yes, that’s right. Great film though. But this led sym­bol  for peo­ple who haven’t seen or haven’t seen it for a long time. That’s my rec­om­men­da­tion for this week. It’s on one of the stream­ing ser­vices. I know it’s not I think I bought it any­way. Yes, check it out blood sim­ple real­ly holds up very well and as Bob Dylan he’s lat­est albums fan­tas­tic.

Tony  1:21:59

Oh, yes, I did lis­ten to the Fat top pop fat pop pet pop album last week. I enjoyed that. I did­n’t get to the Dylan well check that one out this way.

Cameron  1:22:11

Rough and row­dy wise very good. Right very laid back God great. Reminds me of the one that the stones put out five years ago or  with the blues. Yes. CD. It’s real­ly good too.

Oh, that’s great. Good love Bob­by. Still going after all these years. He’s like 150 he’s still going. Yes, he was around before rock and roll and he’ll be around after rock and roll when the world or when the world ends. It’ll just be him and Bob in him and Kei­th Richards case. Yes, death match. Alright, guys have a good week.