Transcript #432

QAV 432 Club

Cameron 00:07
Wel­come back to QAV. This is Episode 432. TK, I am out of lock­down. Eight days in and out. That’s how we do it in the big red state. Is that where we are, reds. Are we the reds yes? I don’t know.

Tony 00:23
Well, you’re meant to be.

Cameron 00:27
Right. But I don’t fol­low com­mies. Yes. We’re the big com­mie pinko state? How’s it going down there in Syd­ney?

Tony 00:31
Well, I’ve had my sec­ond jab today. Hope­ful­ly I can move around a bit more and feel com­fort­able with it all.

Cameron 00:37
We need to get this show done and dust­ed before you fall over with side effects again.

Tony 00:42
Yes, quite pos­si­bly but also I hope not.

Cameron 00:45
Well, as I said to you off air, I had a hell of a day on the old stock mar­ket, Tony. But I’ll get into my com­plaints lat­er. Let’s start with things you have to talk about. What is this great rota­tion busi­ness, Tony?

Tony 01:01
Got a lot. Well, we’ve had a lot of ques­tions about com­mod­i­ty prices and whether they’re in sell ter­ri­to­ry and the rest. I just want­ed to spend a bit of time going through my notes. I spent a fair bit of time yes­ter­day look­ing at it all and I agree with a lot of the com­ments com­ing through on the Face­book page and in our ques­tions that yes, things are turn­ing down. Let me start with San­tos which is I think in a dum­my port­fo­lio, I own it. It’s on the– Been on the top scor­ers list for a while and as we men­tioned, I think last week or the week before, it’s announced the merg­er with Oil Search which is anoth­er oil com­pa­ny and the share price has gone down since then. I think San­tos is prob­a­bly qual­i­fy­ing as a sell on bad news and it’s not nec­es­sar­i­ly bad news but it’s news affect­ing the share price.

Let me just work through my think­ing on that. The first thing is that it’s not a sell from a three-point trend­line point of view unless your fudge it. The share price graph for San­tos has a cou­ple of big dips. One of them being the COVID cough last year and you can draw a line extend­ing between those two and it gets a sell price which is way south of where the cur­rent share price is now and you could fudge it and take l1 as being the COVID cough and you’re get­ting a line that goes up much steep­er and it’s a sell on that fudge line. Just my thoughts on that, the slope if you use the tra­di­tion­al three-point trend­line is about 13% and we’ve been talk­ing about hav­ing 8% as the cut off before we do a fudge. The 8% is not real­ly any­thing. Not real­ly hard sci­ence. It’s more sta­tis­ti­cal, it’s– That’s the best. That was the opti­mal per­for­mance when Dylan did some back test­ing but who’s to say whether there aren’t any out­liers and 13% is wrong or right in this case and whether we should­n’t be using the fudge line. That’s the first com­ment I’ll make. If you want to use the fudge line and San­tos is a sell and it’s cer­tain­ly not a sell if you stick to the hard 8% rule on flat bot­toms and not go to say some­thing like 13%. But put that aside for the moment.

What’s hap­pen­ing was San­tos, it wants to merge with Oil Search. One ques­tion that begs is what will the merge com­pa­ny look like from a QAV score point of view? And the San­tos QAV score at the moment– I’ll just look it up. I did a down­load yes­ter­day on being Sun­day, the eight. San­tos is cur­rent­ly not even on our top scor­ers list. It’s dropped off and it has a QAV score of 0.06. That’s what I’m get­ting any­way. If you look at that– If you look at what the Oil Search QAV score is and also just even worse than San­tos, it’s QAV score is 0.01. It’s pret­ty hard to me to see that the merged com­pa­ny is going to be on our top scores list and prob­a­bly some­where as an aver­age between those two scores, 0.01 and 0.06. That’s anoth­er poten­tial rea­son to sell.

And then I guess the third one is that again, news relat­ed the PNG gov­ern­ment came out over the week­end and Oil Search is based in PNG. San­tos isn’t. But the PNG gov­ern­ment will have to give its ascent before the merg­er can go ahead and some of the things that they are like­ly to demand before they give their ascent is that the San­tos head offices in PNG or at least the big offices in PNG and that they employ a cer­tain num­ber of locals and sup­port the econ­o­my. Much the same con­di­tions I’ve put on Oil Search oper­at­ing in PNG as a for­eign com­pa­ny. It’s pos­si­ble to see that the merg­er that’s cur­rent­ly being looked at gets dilut­ed a lit­tle bit because there are con­di­tions placed on it by the PNG gov­ern­ment and it’s also fair to say I think that this is– The merg­er has just been announced and that there may have to be oth­er sweet­en­ers put in by San­tos to get the approval of the Oil Search share­hold­ers across the line because the merg­er has to be approved by both groups of share­hold­ers.

I think just on the news fac­tor alone and the fact that the share price has retreat­ed since the merg­er has been announced. It’s real­ly a sell on bad news type sto­ry. It’s not nec­es­sar­i­ly bad news and it’s going to cre­ate a large oil com­pa­ny which will be a pow­er­house in the region but not nec­es­sar­i­ly a good one from a QAV point of view. I’ve been watch­ing the share price, it’s come down, it’s poten­tial­ly bounc­ing around the bot­tom now from that over­hang of news but it would­n’t take much in terms of the offer have it hav­ing to be raised by San­tos or con­di­tions being placed on it by the PNG gov­ern­ment to see the price tak­ing a step down. I’m going to sell my shares. I think I put out an announce­ment this morn­ing that I was think­ing about it. I’ll wait 24 hours and I think we should take it out of dum­my port­fo­lio as well on that basis.

Cameron 06:46
This is– Even though I mean, we nor­mal­ly don’t sell things just because they fall off the QAV list, the score­card, right and it’s up rough­ly 40% in the dum­my port­fo­lio since we added in so it’s been a good one for us and it’s not– There’s no real­ly bad news like there was with GLE this morn­ing which we’ll get to. This is what? I mean, it’s– I’m not sure how we– How do I turn this into a guide­line for peo­ple. A rule.

Tony 07:28
I think it is very much news relat­ed. It’s news of a merg­er. Often­times the acquir­ing com­pa­ny and it’s– This is not real­ly an acquir­ing sit­u­a­tion, it’s more a merg­er. Often­times the acquir­ing com­pa­ny is the one that does worse out of it in terms of share price. It’s usu­al­ly the acquired com­pa­ny which goes up in terms of its share price in the short term. I think that’s a news event. It sent the share price down. It’s not like a CFO resign­ing or CEO resigned or some­thing like that but it is and it’s prob­a­bly poten­tial­ly long term good news for San­tos but it’s got a long way to play out and it’s going to be– I think the share price will move around accord­ing to what con­di­tions they have to give up to get the merg­er across.

And look the oth­er thing too about com­pa­nies falling off the top scor­ers list. That usu­al­ly hap­pens because their share price goes up so their price oper­at­ing cash flow goes down and then we use the three-point trend­line to sell them. This is, like I said a fudge three-point sell whether you– If you want to stick out for a non-fudge three-point trend line sell, then no it’s a hold. But I just can’t see this. I can’t see any­thing that’s rewrite the San­tos share price. The oil price– Under­ly­ing oil prices com­ing close to a three-point sell. If we have a look at that, it’s a cou­ple of bucks off of sell.

I’ll just go into Stock Doc­tor now and have a look at oil using the com­mod­i­ty sec­tion. Oil’s down 1.2% overnight. That is West Texas crude and I pre­fer to use Brent but we’ll look at them both. Yes, well what start­ed with West Texas crude which is the US oil price. It’s cur­rent­ly $68. My three-point sell price for it is around 62. That’s $6 off that one and if I look at Brent, again Stock Doc­tor’s giv­ing me a US Brent num­ber but any­way we use it. That’s a fair way off if I use Brent crude North Amer­i­ca. I can’t see where I’ve got to. Let me see if I can find the Brent crude not by North Amer­i­ca. Crude oil, here we go.

Cameron 09:56
You’re doing this in Stock Doc­tor?

Tony 09:59
Yes. I’m going in– OK, what I just did then was I opened up the com­modi­ties advanced scrap­ping screen and over in the top left hand side, you can enter code or name.

Cameron 10:15
Yes.

Tony 10:16
I put in oil and then there’s a sub­head­ing. I clicked on com­modi­ties.

Cameron 10:22
Oh, I see.

Tony 10:23
Yes. I’m going to go down and look at CL# which is the Crude Oil Futures cur­rent.

Cameron 10:29
Yes.

Tony 10:30
And if I draw a three-point trend­line on that, the sell price is telling me it’s about 65.50 and the cur­rent futures con­tract price is 68.28. It’s get­ting pret­ty close. Just the ques­tion of which one you use. If you want­ed to stick out San­tos and see if the oil price turns up again, fine. Or watch the com­modi­ties charts and see if they cross, fine. But I’m hap­py to fudge it based on the fact that there’s also news in there.

Cameron 11:04
Right.

Tony 11:05
Which isn’t nec­es­sar­i­ly– It’s not– I think it’s a pos­i­tive for the stock. Put it that way.

Cameron 11:09
Right.

Tony 11:10
And it cer­tain­ly caused the stock price to go down.

Cameron 11:12
Yes.

Tony 11:14
OK, three-point train lines are all about de-risk­ing. It’s try­ing to– Try to stay safe in the mar­ket real­ly.

Cameron 11:21
Yes.

Tony 11:23
Am I wor­ried about miss­ing out on the next 10% from San­tos going up? Ver­sus sav­ing myself 20% down­side if it goes down, which is all lead­ing towards. If I take all those things togeth­er and I’m pre­pared to de-risk and sell San­tos.

Cameron 11:41
Right. Lit­tle bit of fore­cast­ing in there, Tony?

Tony 11:44
Yes, a lit­tle bit. Not– Well, no not real­ly, it’s fore­cast­ing in terms of what will hap­pen with the share price because of the merg­er? There’s a bit of fore­cast­ing in that. It’s get­ting close to a sell in terms of the crude oil futures. There’s a lit­tle bit of fore­cast­ing in that and it’s a fudge on the three-point trend­line which I’m– Yes, maybe fore­cast­ing with but that’s not real­ly fore­cast­ing, it’s just tak­ing a fudge which I think is fine, espe­cial­ly with com­modi­ties. We’ve seen the leg up and we’ve seen the leg up in the oil price. It’s all hap­pened since the COVID cough. Pri­or to the COVID cough, the low point for oil was $45 com­pared to in the COVID cough when it got down to about 19. Yes, and it’s gone up from 19 to 68. That’s, in fact, at the high point it was– What was that? 73. It’s more than tripled since the COVID cough. It’s yes, tak­ing a prof­it too.

Cameron 12:43
Right. Okay. That’s some­thing we nor­mal­ly don’t do though and what hap­pens if the oil price turns around? I mean, it looks like it’s been up as high as it’s ever been in the last five years here. I can’t see it turn­ing around and going too much, I guess.

Tony 12:57
Yes and there is a lit­tle bit of talk around that again, that would be me fore­cast­ing. But there’s pres­sure on OPEC to keep the price around 70 bucks a bar­rel so it may stay there and one of the things that hap­pens with oil is that once it starts to get to the top end of its range, more pro­duc­ers are invit­ed back into the shale or gas mar­ket in the US and you have wells which have been sit­ting idle for the last year or two will open up again and if the US starts to pro­duce shale oil and vol­umes because they need maybe 70 bucks a bar­rel to make mon­ey, then there’s more that they import this from OPEC and that the price tends to equal­ize around this lev­el.

Cameron 13:48
Right.

Tony 13:49
Yes, but again, that’s just my knowl­edge of the oil mar­ket. But yes, it’s just every­thing about this at the moment. I am par­tic­u­lar­ly using the three-point trend line fudge and the fact that the Oil Search merg­er has depressed the San­tos share price as rea­sons to sell. Now, what could go against that? Well, if the Oil Search merg­er gets pulled off the table, San­tos share price could rise. There’s that risk.

Cameron 14:16
Right. OK, we’re going to get rid of it out of the QAV port­fo­lio and you’re going to sell your own hold­ings.

Tony 14:23
Cor­rect. Yes.

Cameron 14:25
All right.

Tony 14:26
And I think in terms of the dum­my port­fo­lio, we’ll talk about it dur­ing the pulled pork sec­tion but I’m going to buy or sug­gest we buys ZGL which is now the high­est.

Cameron 14:57
ZGL?

Tony 14:57
Yes, ZGL.

Cameron 14:57
Does­n’t have aver­age dai­ly trade of 3k.

Tony 14:57
4k.
Cameron 14:57
4k.

Tony 14:57
Yes.

Cameron 14:57
They’re not too small.

Tony 14:57
Well, our posi­tion in San­tos in the dum­my port­fo­lio is 1500 bucks. Yes, poten­tial­ly. It’s a lit­tle bit small.

Cameron 14:59
After get­ting burnt by GLE this morn­ing that scares me but at least it’s only the dum­my port­fo­lio. It’s not my real mon­ey this time. Any­way, OK ZGL. There you go.

Tony 15:11
Yes, there you go.
15:17
Any­way, I think the iron ore prices are watch at the moment and I think if it goes any­where low­er, then the iron ore stocks are a sell Fortes­cue and CIA and if you look at before Fortes­cue share price, it’s already down from 25 odd dol­lars to 22.74 today. That the iron ore price is hav­ing an effect and if you look at Cham­pi­on Iron, CIA which is anoth­er one that I own. I think it’s– Isn’t it in a dum­my port­fo­lio? You might know Cam? CIA in the dum­my port­fo­lio. I can look it up, I guess.

Cameron 15:17
No it’s not.

Tony 15:17
It’s not. OK, it’s just me then. But that Cham­pi­on Iron is down 4% today and it’s drop­ping fast as well. I’m putting on– I’m going to start light­ning out of these com­pa­nies. I prob­a­bly won’t sell all at once unless I wake up tomor­row and find out the iron ore price has dropped down again. My gut feel is that it’s not going to go much low­er. But my gut feel is also it’s not going to go much high­er. We’re going to sit here for a while.

And again, this is a sit­u­a­tion where we’ve made such great mon­ey out of FMG. That’s tak­ing some prof­its off the table as well and the same with Cham­pi­on iron. What are we giv­ing up? Well, there’s a big div­i­dend com­ing from Fortes­cue met­als in what, five weeks time. I think it’s mid Decem­ber, mid Sep­tem­ber but it comes in. I’ll just con­firm that. I’ll get back into FMG. Ex-div­i­dend for FMG is 10th of Sep­tem­ber, 32 days away.

Cameron 15:17
You need to hold the stock on the 10th of Sep­tem­ber in order to get that div­i­dend?

Tony 15:17
Cor­rect. But that div­i­dend cur­rent­ly, the shares are trad­ing on a 10.7% yield. I expect as soon as it goes ex ‑div­i­dend, the share price will take anoth­er leg down by a cou­ple of bucks. That’s an issue too. Although I mean, over time, it recov­ers and it might be a buy­ing oppor­tu­ni­ty. If we see that after sell­ing it, we want to buy back but yes, we’ll see.

Yes, again, I’m using a fudge line for the com­mod­i­ty price and I’m going to start sell­ing, espe­cial­ly if it drops fur­ther. Now, FMG has a dou­ble posi­tion in the dum­my port­fo­lio and there’s about 5000. Last time I looked it was $5,500 worth in the port­fo­lio so we need to replace it with two stocks I think. Half each and I’m going to sug­gest HUM and IMA, oth­er two stocks. We prob­a­bly should keep a look at HUM because it’s get­ting close to its sell line as well. It’s bounc­ing around.

You’re laugh­ing about how have you sold some?

Cameron15:20
I do because we still got iron ore to talk about, there’s been a few ques­tions com­ing in about it and again, I’m going to sug­gest that I’m going to sell my iron ores, stocks, and I own Fortes­cue met­als group which is my biggest port­fo­lio posi­tion and I own Cham­pi­on Iron which is a big posi­tion for me as well. I’ve got to fig­ure out how to do this with­out crunch­ing the price and I’ll prob­a­bly do it as a dol­lar cost aver­age over a few days for those stocks and then try and find some­thing else to buy that I don’t already own and isn’t iron ore stocks because obvi­ous­ly, the next one makes big stock that I don’t own on this– On the top scor­ers list is Rio Tin­to which is anoth­er iron ore stock. I don’t want to expose myself to that.

Tony 16:07
OK, what’s my feel­ings about iron ore? Let’s have a look at that com­mod­i­ty graph. Stock Soc­tor iron ore and the iron ore price has risen a lit­tle bit overnight. Click on com­modi­ties first and then you get iron ore and then click on Advanced chart­ing. I’m using tr# which is iron ore, 62% pure– 62% iron CFR Chi­na (TSI) it’s called. Three-point trend lines sell for iron ore is again, much low­er than the cur­rent price. The cur­rent price is $172. I think that’s per ton. Upon the cur­rent three-point sell price Is 78 bucks. If I draw a line using our three-point trend­line algo­rithm, that’s a big fall if we want to wait until the iron ore gets to that price.
Again, I’m look­ing at a fudge line start­ing with a low point of April 2020 and then draw­ing a line up there which touch­es Novem­ber 2020 and then the cur­rent share price graph has just crossed beneath that sell line. Now my rea­son behind doing that Cam is that again, bit like oil, since the COVID cough when the share price– When the iron ore price was 83 bucks per ton, it got up as high as well on a month­ly basis, $214. But I know inter-month– Intra month it got up to being $240. Again, the price has tripled and in the last month it’s dropped from 211 back to 172. Quite a big drop.

Now what’s behind? And again, this is I guess pro­vid­ed for con­text rather than from pre­dic­tion and there’s a whole heap of issues here. Chi­na is try­ing to talk the price of iron ore downs called jaw­bon­ing and they don’t like pay­ing record prices for iron ore and they par­tic­u­lar­ly don’t like doing it because it’s an Aus­tralian resource which they’re buy­ing and there are polit­i­cal issues around the rela­tion­ship between Aus­tralia and Chi­na at the moment and they’ve been– Chi­na– The Chi­nese Com­mu­nist Par­ty has been say­ing things like, well, we want to get our COVID– Not our. Sor­ry. Our COVID– Our cli­mate change num­bers down and we’re going to put a clamp on iron ore pro­duc­tion for a while– Steel pro­duc­tion for a while. Sor­ry and that has– Peo­ple are fore­cast­ing what that might mean? And that’s depressed the pre­dic­tive vol­ume and then there­fore, the price of iron ore. How­ev­er, in the back­ground of that is the fact that the Biden infra­struc­ture bill is being passed in the US Sen­ate that will prob­a­bly go ahead and that’ll be a lot of mon­ey being put into steel pro­duc­tion in the US to build things. On top of that, Valet which is the big com­peti­tor for BHP, Rio, and Fortes­cue met­als group is hav­ing more and more prob­lems with its iron ore mines and ship­ping from Brazil. There’s no vol­ume com­ing into the mar­ket at least in the short term which will get the the price down through nat­ur­al sup­ply and demand from the demand side.

It’s pos­si­ble that if Chi­na is just your buy­ing to get the price down, the price will rise from here. I prob­a­bly want to watch it for a few days and see what it does but it has crossed over a fudge line sell at the moment and on top of all that, when oth­er impor­tant things are there to con­sid­er. The next results from Fortes­cue met­als group are prob­a­bly going to be real­ly good. I’ll pick FMG as being the biggest iron ore stock in our port­fo­lio and you can see that if you go to the Stock Doc­tor, you can have a look at what the fore­cast oper­at­ing cash flow is going to be. If you’re going to Stock Doc­tor for Fortes­cue met­als group and then go into the finan­cial met­rics– And go into the the finan­cial met­rics tab. Sor­ry. You can see about the third line down, under the sub­head­ing sol­ven­cy. The Decem­ber 20 num­ber was $3.43 a share for oper­at­ing cash flow. The pro­ject­ed June 21 num­ber is $5.19.

Cameron 20:35
Wow.

Tony 20:36
You’d expect there to be a big increase in the oper­at­ing cash flow and that’s a pro­jec­tion, that’s a con­sen­sus num­ber. But giv­en the fact that we’ve had our last quar­ter­ly report from Fortes­cue and where days, if not, maybe a week or so away from their results. It’s prob­a­bly a pret­ty safe bet. They might– Fortes­cue may come in and sur­prise on the upside. I would­n’t expect them to sur­prise on the down­side. If you plug that num­ber into the check­list, then FMG is going to improve in terms of its QAV num­ber. It’s cur­rent­ly– My check­list has a QAV score of 16.16 and giv­en the oper­at­ing cash flow is going to go up by about 30%. That’s prob­a­bly going to be in the 20s, in the 0.2s after we get the new num­bers.

Now, isn’t that a good thing? You might say, well, it is except that it’s– That num­ber and par­tic­u­lar­ly for com­mod­i­ty based stocks for min­ers, is that num­bers the rearview mir­ror, that’s say­ing to me, they’ve had a good 12 months. It’s not nec­es­sar­i­ly say­ing I’ll have a good 12 months going for­ward or as good as 12 months going for­ward and again, this is pre­dic­tion that if you have a look at the June 22 fore­casts, it’s for a low­er num­ber of 481, still high­er than where we are now but 4.81 of oper­at­ing cash. There’s all num­bers being used as assump­tions in those fore­casts. I treat the June 2018 num­ber with a grain of salt but it is hard to see how in two years time the iron ore price is going to get to a record high. Again, you would need to have full on steel pro­duc­tion around the world which is what peo­ple have pre­dict­ed when we come out of COVID and you will need to have the com­peti­tors like Valet still hav­ing prob­lems get­ting any big demand into the mar­ket to bring the price down both of those two things.

Yes, that want to fore­cast but those two things that are poten­tial­ly hard to see hap­pen­ing. Any­way, I think the iron ore prices are watch at the moment and I think if it goes any­where low­er, then the iron ore stocks are a sell for the skew on CIA and if you look at before the skew share price, it’s already down from 25 or doors to 2274. Today that the iron ore price is hav­ing an effect and if you look at cham­pi­on on CIA, which is anoth­er one that’s because I I think it’s I think it’s in a dum­my port­fo­lio. You might know cam­eras CIA in the dum­my port­fo­lio, I can look it up, I guess. Now it’s not. It’s not okay. So it’s just me there. But that that cham­pi­on is down 4% today, and it’s strug­gling fast as well. So I’m pret­ty good. I know. So I’m going to start light­ning out of these com­pa­nies, I prob­a­bly won’t sell all at once. Unless they wake up tomor­row and find out the iron ore price has dropped down again.

My gut feel is there; it’s not going to go much low­er. But my gut feel is also it’s not going to go much high­er. So we’re going to sit here for a while and again, you know, this is a this is a sit­u­a­tion where we’ve made such great mon­ey out of FMG. That’s tak­ing some prof­its off the table as well and the same with cham­pi­on on what are we giv­ing up? Well, there’s a big div­i­dend com­ing from Fortes­cue met­als. In what five weeks time, I think it’s mid-Decem­ber, mid-Sep­tem­ber, but it comes in, I’ll just con­firm that I’ll get back into FMG. Ex div­i­dend for FMG is 10th of Sep­tem­ber, so 32 days away. So you need to hold the stock on the 10th of Sep­tem­ber in order to get that div­i­dend. Cor­rect. But that div­i­dend cur­rent­ly, she has a trail­ing 10.7% yield. So, you know, I expect as soon as it goes ex div­i­dend, the share price will take anoth­er leg down by a cou­ple of bucks. So that’s an issue too, although I mean, over time, it recov­ers and it might be a buy­ing oppor­tu­ni­ty. If we see it after sell­ing it. We want to buy back but yeah, we’ll say. So yeah, again, I’m using a fudge line for the com­mod­i­ty price and I’m gonna start sell­ing espe­cial­ly drops fur­ther. Now FMG has a dou­ble posi­tion in a dum­my port­fo­lio and there’s about 5000 last time I looked it was $5,500 worth in the port­fo­lio so we need to replace it with two stocks I think half each and I’m gonna sug­gest

Cameron 25:37
I sold both of those recent­ly. I sold HUM about a week ago. I sold it by the end of the finan­cial year. But yes, I sold HUM recent­ly after it went back­wards on me.

Tony 25:52
Yes, it’s been danc­ing around that sell line. These are all just– Going to have a look at IMA. What’s the sell price for IMA?

Cameron 25:59
I don’t know. But I did a score­card this morn­ing. Nei­ther of those are in my top 10.

Tony 26:04
Real­ly?

Cameron 26:05
Yes.

Tony 26:06
I did one yes­ter­day and they both weigh up in my top 10. I’ve got Xycom, Medusa, Cash Con­vert­ers, IGL, HUM, CIA.

Cameron 26:18
Well, let me [Cross talk 00:26:21]. No, I mean, I’ve got IGL at the top of mine.

Tony 26:25
IGL was NGO.

Cameron 26:27
IGL– ZGL, I took out because the ADT was too small for me. Yes, when I look at– When I do the sell line for HUM, I think it’s right on the sell line.
Tony 26:43
Now, It’s been danc­ing around. I’m get­ting a sell price for HUM of 94 cents and the cur­rent price is 96.

Cameron 26:57
95 accord­ing to Stock Doc­tor right now but yes, my Stock Doc­tor any­way.

Tony 27:01
Let me have a look. Well, we might be buy­ing and sell­ing it quick­ly. But you’re right, 95. I just refreshed.

Cameron 27:09
Yes, and I mean, I’m just draw­ing a line. I’m not putting it into the three-point cal­cu­la­tor but I’m get­ting a sell line of 94, 96– 94.96 cents and it’s cur­rent­ly 95 cents. I don’t know man. I prob­a­bly would­n’t have that on my list. It’s a bit dicey for my lik­ing.

Tony 27:32
Yes. It’s also in a bit of a down­trend as well. Yes, let’s skip over it then.

Cameron 27:37
And IMA. Have a look at IMA. I did check this one late last week but because I sold it recent­ly I did­n’t want to buy it again because you warned me, things you sell on the last day of the finan­cial year, you should­n’t buy back too quick­ly. It’ll look like you’re try­ing to scam some­thing.

Tony 28:23
Yes. cap­i­tal gains. Yes.

Cameron 28:49
Well, I think IMA is a Josephine too.

Tony 28:49
What’s a Josephine?

Cameron 28:49
Oh, Tony, this is my new ter­mi­nol­o­gy. You haven’t caught up with the Josephine. We haven’t talked about it on the show. I think I’ve used it in emails and on Face­book. This is what? Yes, wait and see. It’s like not tonight, Josephine. You said a cou­ple of weeks ago, some­thing– If some­thing’s above its buy line and above its sell line but it’s cur­rent­ly in a down­trend.

Tony 28:49
Yes.

Cameron 28:49
Then it’s a wait and see, which I call is Josephine. I call it a Josephine hecause it’s not tonight, Josephine, which– I can tell you. There’s no record that Napoleon ever actu­al­ly said that but it’s good enough and it’s sex­i­er than just a wait. I’m talk­ing about IMA though. IMA fin­ished in July 19.8. It’s cur­rent­ly at 18.5.

Tony 28:53
I’ve got IMA on the way out. Let me just have a look. It is cur­rent­ly at 18.5. No, yes, it’s dropped down a bit. OK. Yes, it’s in the down­turn, you’re right. It’s about a sell price. Yes. Let’s skip it.

Cameron 29:06
That’s a Josephine.

Tony 29:07
A Josephine.

Cameron 29:09
Yes.

Tony 29:09
I like Robin Williams as it’s a Nefer­ti­ti. Not tonight. I’m hav­ing my pyra­mid.

Cameron 29:17
What was that in?

Tony 29:22
One of your stand up acts.

Cameron 29:24
Right. OK. Good. Yes. Well, sor­ry to put the kibosh on those but–

Tony 29:30
That’s fine.

Cameron 29:31
And I tell you when I was doing my check­list today, it was bru­tal because near­ly every­thing I looked at was a Josephine. Every­thing had been retreat­ing for the last month or two.

Tony 29:42
Yes, and that’s a bit of anoth­er wor­ry in the mar­ket, isn’t it at the moment?

Cameron 29:47
I don’t know. Is it– Is that a wor­ry? Isn’t that just–

Tony 29:49
Well, if you can’t busi­ness as usu­al.

Cameron 29:51
Oh, even­tu­al­ly could but it took me a long time. We should have Reg. Reg, one of the mem­bers here in Bris­bane. Reg called me up ear­ly today and he goes, I’ll just do a check­list. Do I need to do the– My man­u­al data, there’s 80 stocks in it? Do I need to do all the man­u­al data on these 80 stocks? And I explained, well, I nor­mal­ly just do the top 20 or 30 depend­ing on how many stocks I need to buy and I said, I’ve got to buy two todays. It should­n’t be very long exer­cise for me to go through and I just checked sen­ti­ment. Nor­mal­ly I find that when I checked the sen­ti­ment, about half dis­ap­pear imme­di­ate­ly but half is still there. But then I got off the phone with him and I was check­ing the sen­ti­ment and every­thing was just nope. I was like, oh my god, this is– I was real­ly get­ting that in my top 10. ING is num­ber 10 and I’ve got a QAV score for it of 0.12. Nor­mal­ly, I don’t go below 0.2. For stuff, I had to real­ly scrape the bot­tom of the bar­rel to get a list of 10 or half.

Tony 31:03
I’m just work­ing through my list at the moment. Looks like KSC is the next one that is above its buy line, above its sell line and is at an upward trend this month.

Cameron 31:22
KSC. They’re not on my list.

Tony 31:29
They’re PDT stock as well. It’s K and S Cor­po­ra­tion. It’s a trans­port com­pa­ny based in Ade­laide.

Cameron 31:29
Right. OK.

Tony 31:30
It’s small. It’s like anoth­er $4,000.

Tony 31:30
Put that one in.

Cameron 31:32
Oh, well.

Cameron 31:33
We’re going to replace FMG with some KSC and then we need anoth­er one.

Tony 31:40
Yes, KSC. Half with KSC. Let me keep going.

Well, by the way, in terms of what I buy when I get out of FMG. Unless some­thing pops up dur­ing the next week or so with com­pa­ny report­ing sea­son, I’m just going to have to top up my cur­rent hold­ings.

Cameron 32:02
Right.

Tony 32:03
Because I pret­ty much bought into every big com­pa­ny on the top scor­ers list now.

Cameron 32:09
Right.

Tony 32:12
OK, what are we look­ing at? Next one on my check­list to check out is Bea­con Min­er­als. Is that one you’re famil­iar with?

Cameron 32:21
Yes, I think I put the kibosh on those last weeks. BCN.

Tony 32:26
Yes.

Cameron 32:27
I did­n’t check them today but I did a list on Fri­day when I had to buy some­thing and yes, that’s a Josephine as well. It’s been com­ing back since May.

Tony 32:38
Yes, no, you’re right.

Cameron 32:39
It’s actu­al­ly below its sell line now too I think.

Tony 32:42
Oh, is it? Let me have it. Yes, it could be. It’s one of those. It’s a very low vol­ume ADT again. The graph is a bit– I think it’s crossed sell line to your right. You should take it off the check­list. I’m just going to do that now online.

Cameron 32:59
In fact, it crossed it’s sell line back in March I think.

Tony 33:06
OK, we’ve got next one down is a Eclipse Group. We already have. Choice Cor­po­ra­tion’s next one down. It’s too small. It’s only got 3000 ADT. Kingsrose Min­ing. Do we have KRM?
Cameron 33:17
I bought them on Fri­day and they dropped by 10% this morn­ing so I axed them this morn­ing which is a ques­tion that I want to talk to you about at some stage. I was a lit­tle bit con­fused think­ing about this over the week­end. Got an email from some­body. I can’t remem­ber who it was. Might have been Ed or some­thing like that about rule one but Kingsrose Min­ing by the way is anoth­er Josephine. It– Like you’ve said– We talked about rule one last week. You said if you bought some­thing and then it quick­ly dropped by five to 10%, you would sell it, exer­cise one. Rule num­ber one. But you pre­vi­ous­ly had remind­ed me you had said that when you buy some­thing you don’t look at it for a month. Which of those?

Tony 33:30
This is like the life of Bri­an, isn’t it?

Cameron 34:23
It’s a san­dal. It’s a holy san­dal. We should all take our san­dals off [Crosstalk 00:34:22].

This is your life. It’s like we’re bring­ing out one guest to go well, Tony once said this and the next guest will say, well, actu­al­ly, he told me the com­plete oppo­site. Well, no, I look at it and I think they’re both sen­si­ble but I’m won­der­ing which one takes prece­dence. I’ve been wor­ried then like when I answer because after he told me this last week, I’ve sold a whole bunch of stocks last week that I bought, that had dropped by 5%. But then when Ed, who­ev­er it was, I think it was– It remind­ed me this. I was like, Oh well, should I just ignore it for a month and then look at it. I don’t know.

Tony 35:00
OK, the back­ground to rule one for me was about 10 years into my invest­ing career, we were refi­nanc­ing our home mort­gage and we had a pri­vate banker and she came to the house and we signed up the doc­u­ments and a cup of cof­fee and we talked about what I was going to do with the mon­ey which was to invest in the share mar­ket and of course, the pri­vate bankers apart from giv­ing us real­ly good ser­vice was also there to try and sell us oth­er prod­ucts, oth­er bank prod­ucts and so she said, Oh, did you know we can offer you a solu­tion to stop your share port­fo­lio from drop­ping more than 10%? Would that be of inter­est? I said, yes, well, tell me more? She went and got the guy who does that to come in and take me through it. Basi­cal­ly, there’s a thing called Cuff and Col­lars which are basi­cal­ly options that you put all these puts and calls into the mar­ket. And

Cameron 35:58
I went to a night­club once where there was cus­tomer calls involved. I think there was quite a few bankers there as well actu­al­ly and a big bowl of cocaine in the mid­dle of the room. But any­way, sor­ry yes. Go back to your sto­ry.

Tony 36:09
The cafe. It used to be the name of the restau­rant at the Gee­bung Polo Club in Mel­bourne and Hawthorne.

Cameron 36:15
Right.

Tony 36:16
All the road, we used to go there a lot, I remem­ber.

Cameron 36:19
Met my first wife at the Gee­bung. Yes, good pub, man. Well, I know it did­n’t work out very well for me but we did­n’t have any cuffs and col­lars involved but any­way.

Tony 36:32
Any­way, basi­cal­ly, long sto­ry short, they would put a whole series of options into the mar­ket, into the port­fo­lio based on the shares I held and yes, it would­n’t drop more than 10, the port­fo­lio would­n’t drop more than 10%. I said, How much is this going to cost me? And they said, well, 10%. It was– I thought, well, hang on, if I just put a sto­ploss in for all my shares at 10% are doing the same thing for free. That’s where rule one sort of came to be 10%. Yes, and that’s what I’ve used in terms of not look­ing at stocks side after I buy them. I don’t but hav­ing said that, you do find out if some­thing is drop­ping, either through read­ing or the AFR. If it comes up on the dai­ly charts on the AFR of the stocks that have gone up the mature drop, the match dropped the most, you can see it that way and these days, I guess it’s com­ing up on the Face­book group as well that peo­ple are say­ing, what do I do? You prob­a­bly do find out about it. Quick­er than I would nor­mal­ly.

Cameron 37:37
I’ve– When I buy some­thing now, I set a price alert in Stock Doc­tor for 5% less than what I paid for my buy price and they will send me emails, unfor­tu­nate­ly, way more often than I intend­ed in the last cou­ple of weeks. Should I do that or not do that? Should I give it a month?

Tony 37:58
Do it.

Cameron 37:59
Do it. OK, do it.

Tony 38:00
Yes, well, espe­cial­ly I would use 10%. I said, five to 10% last week. If you’re set­ting an alert at 5% at least you’ll know and you can watch it and see if it gets much below that.

Cameron 38:12
Right.

Tony 38:12
Yes, but I’ve always used 10%.

Cameron 38:15
10%. OK.

Tony 38:17
Yes, I don’t watch stocks. I mean, I for­got I trad­ed out of Mac­quar­ie group last week and bought Sun­corp and I com­plete­ly for­got­ten. I did that until I was going through the port­fo­lio on the week­end say­ing, how much is FMG in the port­fo­lio? And how much CIA do I have and what do I have to buy and what do I cur­rent­ly owe? That’s some cool. Yes, I for­got that I own that one already.

Cameron 38:35
And then they just announced today the big div­i­dend. I saw some­body in Face­book. Ys. Cool. Let’s do that.

Cameron 38:44
All right.

Tony 38:45
Yes. That’s that.

Cameron 38:47
We’re going for time here, Tony. We’re 41 min­utes in.

Tony 38:52
We haven’t had a–

Cameron 38:52
Sec­ond stop to replace FMG with yet though.

Tony 38:55
Let me just keep look­ing.

Cameron 38:57
I tell you what I’ve got at the top of my list, which is IGL, 0.41. COG, 0.22. Mas­ter­mind group at 0.21. Aus­tralian vin­tage, 0.20, and Mid­way lim­it­ed at 0.18.

Tony 39:16
I have none of those. I have IGL. What was the oth­er one after right? Let’s look at IGL in is that. I think that’s in our dum­my port­fo­lio already, Cam?

Cameron 39:25
Yes, let me check.

Tony 39:27
We don’t want that. What was your name? COG, COG finan­cial.
Cameron 39:34
Why is that ring­ing a bell?

Tony 39:35
Oh, yes, I’ve got in my mind, but it’s down the list a bit. Right. So I have a QAV score of 0.284. What do you have?

Cameron 39:43
0.22 and it’s num­ber two on my list. I already own it. By the way, just as a full dis­clo­sure not that any­one cares what I own.

Tony 39:55
We don’t have it in the dum­my port­fo­lio.

Cameron 39:59
Right.

Tony 40:00
I was going to look at– I’ve got two before COG on my list, Motor­cy­cle hold­ings and my hold­ings.

Cameron 40:08
I own both of those in my own port­fo­lio. Well, at least I did and I still own. I may have sold MTO because I think MTO.

Tony 40:19
MTO touch that sell line recent­ly I think did­n’t.

Cameron 40:22
I think so and I may have sold it then. Let me have a look at the cur­rent–

Tony 40:30
You must have sold it because. its up 1.38% today.

Cameron 40:36
Yes I’d say it’s– Maybe just above its sell line now but it was below it. Yes.

Tony 40:46
I think it’s OK to buy. Let’s put MTO on the port­fo­lio.
Cameron 40:49
Right. OK, MTO.

Tony 40:57
That’s our two stocks for FMG. Do we have any? I think we have GRR, don’t mean a dum­my port­fo­lio, anoth­er iron ore stock.

Cameron 41:04
I think we do. Yes. we do. It’s up 187% since we bought it and most­ly like just this finan­cial year, I think.

Tony 41:18
OK. That’s why I had a good announce­ment a cou­ple of weeks ago. Did­n’t it?

Cameron 41:23
Yes, now we’re going to sell it.

Tony 41:25
It’s been cool.

Cameron 41:26
We are bru­tal today, Tony.

Tony 41:30
I’m fudg­ing the iron ore price. We need– Let’s– The next one on my list is Maya.

Cameron 41:38
Yes.

Tony 41:39
And we know that that’s in an uptrend.

Cameron 41:44
Yes, I think Maya is still hold­ing strong. It’s dipped a lit­tle bit but I don’t think it’s– Oh, well, it’s a Josephine actu­al­ly. It’s–

Tony 41:55
Last month has it.
Cameron 41:56
Yes, end of July, I had 49.6 cents. It’s cur­rent­ly hold on. No, that’s not right. What’s going on?

Tony 42:03
3% today.

Cameron 42:05
Fin­ished. Sor­ry. Stock Doc­tor was just catch­ing up. Yes, fin­ished July 49.5 cents. It’s cur­rent­ly 47.5 cents.

Tony 42:15
OK, let’s keep going. COG is my next one which is your next one. Let’s see what COG is like.

Cameron 42:29
Col­gate? Right. Look at that chart. It’s a Via­gra chart. That one.

Tony 42:39
Yes. OK, let’s put COG in.

Cameron 42:42
COG. All right.

Tony 42:44
Just let me check its three-point sell line because it is slow­ing down a bit.

Cameron 42:50
It’s got plen­ty of room to go about it.

Tony 42:52
That’s fine.

Cameron 42:53
Yes.

Tony 43:08
OK, GRR goes out, COG goes in.

Tony 43:08
We don’t have calls. OK, what else I want to say? No, that’s prob­a­bly it. The only oth­er con­sid­er­a­tion for me is I’m going to have a big cap­i­tal gains tax bill.

Cameron 43:08
All right.

Tony 43:08
We don’t have COG already in the exit port­fo­lio. Do we?

Cameron 43:11
No.

Cameron 43:15
Yes.

Tony 43:18
By sell­ing FMG and CIA which the dum­my port­fo­lio does­n’t. That’s a ben­e­fit for dum­my port­fo­lio but I’m going to have to man­age that myself going for­ward.

Cameron 43:29
Right.

Tony 43:30
Yes.

Cameron 43:31
Are you just– Say you like some of the mon­ey that you’d get from the sell you put aside for it? Or what do you do?

Tony 43:39
No, I don’t. I can always sell some­thing when the tax return is due.

Cameron 43:44
Right.

Tony 43:44
And that’s a fair way away because if you use a tax account to do your tax, you don’t have to pay it for about 18 months after the end of the finan­cial year. We’re talk­ing two and a half years away before I have to pay CGT on FMG.

Cameron 44:03
Ans as we’ve talked about before, because of your port­fo­lio, dou­bles every three years, 18 months is a half a dou­bling. I think it’d be alright.

Tony 44:14
Yes, I think so too. [Cross talk 00:47:17]. I can always sell my real year shares and I’ve got a loss against them.

Cameron 44:24
I was telling Tyler that sto­ry today. Because we could­n’t get out of GLE which is– Can I talk about that for a sec­ond? Min­ing goes. Woke up this morn­ing, and well, some­time this morn­ing, 930 or 10 o’clock, got an email from Stock Doc­tor or some­one, Hot­Cop­per maybe. Say­ing GLE had announced that their CFO had resigned, effec­tive imme­di­ate­ly resigned today, leav­ing today, out the door, you’re gone. Don’t pack a box. Don’t col­lect your goods. Did­n’t say that but it just said she was effec­tive imme­di­ate­ly and I emailed you and then I emailed Tyler and said, this is not a good sign and we’re already dodgy about GLE and we decid­ed to sell. Tyler and I both bought our shares for a super­hero.

Tony 45:23
Yes.

Cameron 45:24
And it had a very low ADT, I think it was like three grand and we had not paid atten­tion to that. Well, he bought it six weeks ago in the flur­ry of things I was doing with the boys and imme­di­ate­ly after we bought, I noticed and I went, Oh, shit. Well, we’re in now let’s see where it goes and then it went up, if you remem­ber by like 12% one day, and then it went down 15% the next time. Any­way, I– We tried to log on the super­hero to sell our stocks. This is about 10.30– 10.35 this morn­ing and super­hero’s web­site was­n’t work­ing prop­er­ly. It was not com­ing up both Tylor at his place on the app and me on the web­site and my place. Could­n’t get it to ful­ly load. It was like half load and the site would­n’t load and we’re hit­ting refresh. Final­ly, I got it to load and I put through a sell order for GLE. It said it had received the order and it was pend­ing.

A few min­utes lat­er, I’d say three min­utes lat­er, I got a text mes­sage from super­heroes say­ing that the sell order failed and I was like what the? And I went back to their web­site and again, it was not real­ly load­ing, refresh, man­aged to put through anoth­er sell order which went through, they sold most of my hold­ing but not all of it. There’s 250 shares remain­ing which I did­n’t find out for sev­er­al hours because I had to run out the door to go to the blood bank. Any­way, in the five or 10 min­utes between me putting in the sell order that filed then redo­ing it and then them sell­ing it, the share price dropped by about 20%. Because we got in before I can see the price drop on stock doc­tor in their dai­ly charts. We put it in before it dropped and then it dropped and they did­n’t get me even all the way out at the end.

Cameron 47:29
I also sold Kingsrose Min­ing, around about the same time it went through. OK, but I’ve emailed the super I con­tact­ed the super­hero peo­ple on Face­book ini­tial­ly and said what’s going on with your web­site today? They said send us an email which I did. I’ve sent them an email and say look, this is ter­ri­ble. Your site was­n’t work­ing prop­er­ly and as it was­n’t work­ing, it’s cost me mon­ey because the cell did­n’t go through and then you did­n’t even sell my whole par­cel.

There’s still stock out­stand­ing. In their site, it says review. If I go to my trans­ac­tion his­to­ry, it says review. When I click on review, it just gives me an option to can­cel the order. Does­n’t tell me why? Does­n’t tell me what else to do? I said to them, look, I can’t use or tell peo­ple about your site, if this is what’s going on, I’m not using super­hero any­more.

Unfor­tu­nate­ly, one of the things I liked about super­hero is when you trans­fer funds into it, they use Osco. The funds trans­fers imme­di­ate. I went back to self-wealth and tried to trans­fer funds into my self-wealth account and it’s going to take three days for the mon­ey to hit their bank account. It says, so I did a check­list and it was a hard one because of all the sen­ti­ments I spent an hour or so doing the check­list and then I could­n’t buy any­thing because I can’t get mon­ey and I don’t want to use super­heroes. I was like, Oh, my gosh and the king rose mon­ey thing. As I said before, I bought it on Fri­day and I don’t know why I’m look­ing at the chart and it was a Josephine already by Fri­day. I don’t know why I bought it on Fri­day. I must have checked the chart close enough. But yes, it dropped 10% this morn­ing. I don’t like that as well. But yes, it was I mean, good, learn­ing oppor­tu­ni­ty for myself as to using some of these new apps that then crash and what can hap­pen when a stock­’s in freefall and your bro­kers web­sites not work­ing?

Tony 49:26
Did you– What kind of sell­er did you put in at mar­ket or admire?

Cameron 49:30
No, admire.

Tony 49:31
OK.

Cameron 49:31
Yes.

Tony 49:32
That last bit of your share sale should have gone through.

Cameron 49:36
You would think unless nobody’s buy­ing.

Tony 49:40
Well yes, that’s pos­si­ble and I think we trad­ed stock but [Cross talk 00:49:44].

Cameron 49:44
Tyler was able to sell his stocks.

Tony 49:47
Put the brakes on.

Cameron 49:48
Well, maybe. Tyler was able to sell his stock and his mate Chris sold his or around about at the same time. I don’t know man but not because–

Tony 50:01
It’s nice if you’d let them go first.

Cameron 50:05
Yes, well, I emailed Tyler, imme­di­ate­ly Face­Time me and said, what do we do? And I said, well, let Chris know. I think we should get out, let Chris know and–

Tony 50:13
Right.

Cameron 50:14
And then it dropped through the roof. I don’t know. I mean, it may have come back with a bit of luck. It’s come back up and I made a prof­it on that stuff that they did­n’t sell but I don’t like my chances.
Tony 50:26
Does it usu­al­ly work that way?

Cameron 50:29
No, it’s down 18.57% since this morn­ing. There you go.

Tony 50:34
Bug­ger.

Cameron 50:35
Any­way. Good learn­ing expe­ri­ence for me, Tony, of all those things as I said.

Cameron in the edit­ing room late on Tues­day after­noon, the 10th of August. 24 hours after we record­ed this episode and 36 hours, give or take. Well, I mean, not quite in that 30 hours after this whole deba­cle hap­pened, I did get an email back from the super­hero folks last night basi­cal­ly say­ing, oh yes, sor­ry, the site had some prob­lems but we fixed it fair­ly quick­ly. To make up for your prob­lems, we’re will­ing to offer you two free trades. Now trade super­hero is $5. They’re offer­ing me $10 in com­pen­sa­tion and I said to them, $10, that does­n’t even begin to cov­er the loss­es I made– I incurred because your site was down and they still haven’t replied to me about what hap­pened with the par­cel of shares that did­n’t get sold. It’s still sit­ting in pend­ing a day and a half lat­er and they haven’t replied to my email. Yes, I’m mov­ing all my stuff off of super­hero and going back to self-wealth. That’s my two cents on that.

Tony 51:57
I keep talk­ing about some of the com­mod­i­ty price charts just quick­ly?

Cameron 52:01
Sure.

Tony 52:01
To real­ly do that.

Cameron 52:02
Yes.

Tony 52:03
I’m just going to call out that cop­per is close to a sell. A quick look at that and that will affect c6c in the dum­my port­fo­lio and I also have Sand­fire which is a cop­per stock in my own port­fo­lio so it will affect that. If I go back into Stock Doc­tor into the com­mod­i­ty sec­tion, cop­per’s down half a per­cent today.
Cameron 52:31
Now, cop­per is the prob­lem one. Isn’t it cop­per’s the one where we need to look at? Some­thing else–

Tony 52:36
If we use futures, we’re a bit off the sell price. The hg# which is cop­per futures, that price is 4300 or $4.32 a ton. Yes and the three-point sell is $3.75. It’s a bit off but if we look at the cop­per price itself, phys­i­cal price, again, I typed cop­per into that search win­dow, hit com­modi­ties and then we have XCU_ which is cop­per phys­i­cal.

Cameron 53:09
Yes. That’s the one.

Tony 53:12
And then that’s pret­ty close to itself. This must be again, a price per ton. 9500 is the cur­rent price and that’s got to sell at around 9300. Pret­ty close.

Cameron 53:32
94. 443 I’m get­ting.

Tony 53:39
What have I got? [Cross talk 00:53:45]. Yes, it’s close.

Cameron 53:47
OK, we’re not– Are we because the lows actu­al­ly back in August 2016 but is that with­in 8% vari­ance of the oth­er low in ear­ly 2020? Are we fudg­ing it?

Tony 54:01
No, I don’t think I have to fudge this one. If I look at the low­est point is, yes, it’s a flat one.

Cameron 54:09
Yes.

Tony 54:09
Low­est point is always 16 at 4600 and then the COVID Cough is 4797. That’s with­in 8%.

Cameron 54:19
Yes.

Tony 54:20
Yes, it real­ly was only on iron ore that we had to fudge. Every­thing else is play­ing out using three-point trend lines but just want­ed to call out that so maybe dur­ing the week before we talk again cop­per cross­es and we’re out but obvi­ous­ly we’ll put some­thing out on Face­book and a stock jour­nal for that one on the web­site. Gold is get­ting close as well, Cam.

Cameron 54:45
What is going on, Tony?

Tony 54:47
Well, all these things have had great run since the COVID cough. That’s what mar­kets do. They don’t go up for­ev­er.

Cameron 54:54
What goal are we look­ing at? Futures or XAU_?

Tony 55:02
Yes. XAU_ is what I’m using.

Cameron 55:06
Gold spot mul­ti.

Tony 55:08
Which is also the in US dol­lars– Excuse me. This has got a cur­rent price of 1746 US dol­lars per ton and sell prices at 1631, 1640. It’s about 100 bucks away from its sell price. It’s get­ting pret­ty close. I think all it would take is either a bit of a drop in the gold price or we scroll for­ward a month and we’re prob­a­bly going to hit that sell line for gold.

Cameron 55:39
Yes, right.

Tony 55:41
Again with­out fudg­ing. I’m just going to call that one out there as well and I think we’re start­ing to see that reflect­ed in the gold price or the gold stocks dropped two or 3% today.

Cameron 55:51
Yes. Is that like Kingsrose Min­ing?

Tony 55:54
Yes, it might be one of them but I think they all did– All of mine– I have a Remil­ius. It’s down 6% today. 5.57% today.

Cameron 56:04
OK.

Tony 56:05
A bit of pre­dic­tion going on in the share prices for gold min­ers. I’m pre­pared to wait until we cross but yes, it’s com­ing up, I think.

Cameron 56:16
Right.

Tony 56:16
As good as I can tell. But all the oth­er ones are good. Nick­el, Alu­minum, a good actu­al­ly Plat­inum is a sell which is if any­one’s hold­ing zim platz they might want to have a look at the Plat­inum price.

Cameron 56:33
Zim goes splat again.

Tony 56:35
That’s right. It might. Again, Plat­inum’s had a real­ly good run. If I go back into my advanced graph­ing page and call up Plat­inum. In the com­modi­ties tab, plat­inum phys­i­cal is XPT_ in Stock Doc­tor. If you want to have a look at it, if you’re a Zim­bab­wean hold­er and it’s cross.

Cameron 57:01
Yes, it’s real­ly dropped off, isn’t it?

Tony 57:04
Yes. From $1200. Again, I think this is per ton down to 979 and that’s cross the sell line.

Cameron 57:13
OK. How is that? [Cross talk 00:57:18].

Tony 57:22
They’ve done real­ly well. Some­times they’ve tripled from COVID and it’s time to come back to Earth now.
Cameron 57:27
Right. Speak­ing of com­ing back down to earth, our port­fo­lio for this finan­cial year is almost neck and neck with the ASX 200.

Tony 57:37
Yes, well, I’m not sur­prised. We’re over­weight. FMG, GRR, Gold stocks they’re all start­ing to turn back again.

Cameron 57:47
Right. Back at the end of July, we were killing it against the ASX. We were 11% up ver­sus 1.7% up. Now, we’re up a lit­tle shy of 5% ver­sus the all odds 3.2.

Tony 58:02
Yes, right. Well, I’m hop­ing that we’re get­ting the tim­ing right to get out of these com­mod­i­ty stocks. We should fol­low­ing the log­ic and that will avoid any more loss­es in iron ore at least.

Cameron 58:15
Yes.

Tony 58:17
Per­haps cop­per and per­haps coal as we rotate out.

Cameron 58:20
Just point­ing out for lis­ten­ers though. That’s it’s a big decline but our goal is to do dou­ble the all odds. Three to six, not two to 10. We were shoot­ing the moon back at the end of July with our per­for­mance back then.

Tony 58:37
Yes, that’s also in the back of my mind. Cana­da last year on the mar­ket was the biggest mar­ket rise ever for Aus­tralia.

Cameron 58:43
Yes.

Tony 58:44
I can’t see that hap­pen­ing twice, two years in a row.

Cameron 58:47
Rudy says we’re head­ing into a new bull mar­ket, Tony.

Tony 58:50
I saw that. Well, real­ly there’s no Gold stocks or iron ore stocks, obvi­ous­ly.

Cameron 58:58
Just see your­self. Let’s just all see your­self.

Tony 59:03
Which makes AstraZeneca which is going to become a non-event, I think, pret­ty soon.

Cameron 59:09
Oh, real­ly? They make AstraZeneca real­ly?

Tony 59:12
Yes. They were real­ly good last year when they start­ed. They were the only local pro­duc­er of a vac­cine and then peo­ple start­ed get­ting blood clots and yes, we’re com­ing back now. The share prices back up now. But we’ve strug­gled there for a while.

Cameron 59:30
All right. Well, what now? What are we going to talk about now?

Tony 59:34
More ques­tions. Thanks for bear­ing with me dur­ing that dis­cus­sion on the big rota­tion, the great rota­tion of com­modi­ties wait. We’ll– I guess, imple­ment that. Pay close atten­tion to some of those oth­er com­mod­i­ty prices in the near future.

Cameron 59:50
Before we get into that, you want­ed every­one to email Rachel Water­house at the Aus­tralian share­hold­ers Asso­ci­a­tion. She’s the pres­i­dent, Chair­man.

Tony 1:00:05
She’s the CEO des­ig­nate. She’s com­ing in to replace the cur­rent CEO.

Cameron 1:00:09
Right. I hope when you emailed her, you fixed her email address for her.

Tony 1:00:14
No, it bounce back from me too after you sent me a mes­sage this morn­ing or last night.

Cameron 1:00:20
She sent out a group email, an email to all the ASI sub­scribers talk­ing about what her favorite invest­ing pod­casts were. We were not on the list, embar­rass­ing­ly for her and she said, email me what your favorite invest­ing pod­casts are and you and I both sent her an email say­ing, Hey, we’re ASI mem­bers and we’ve had Ali­son Har­ring­ton on recent­ly and Phil. You’ve been on Phil mus­ca­tel show and Steve labs has been on our show. We should be at least on your radar. Thank you very much, but her email address that she put in the email was wrong. If you want to email her as Rachel, R A C H E L dot Water­house at asi.asn.au. Shoot her an email, tell it to check out QAV if you would­n’t mind.

Speak­ing of things that peo­ple have done for us recent­ly. Want to thank a and mcl for the apple review that came through this week. It was short and sweet, but did the job. Thank you and Mikkel, speak­ing of good results, I don’t want to take too much time because I want to get a few ques­tions in. I know we’re just wher­ev­er now but I saw the Finan­cial Review today they were say­ing that bank share prices since the COVID cough, Com­mon­wealth banks up 80%, West­pac up 70%, ANZ adds up 85%, and the NAB is up 77%.

Tony 1:01:51
Yes.

Cameron 1:01:52
I know that we– You talked a lot com­ing out of COVID, about want­i­ng to fudge the banks because they were on the low­er end of the score­card, I think at the time.

Tony 1:02:04
Well, no, they came onto the score­card and had quite strong results and the num­bers real­ly stacked up but the three-point trend­line had­n’t breached its buy posi­tion. I did­n’t buy them.

Cameron 1:02:14
You did­n’t buy it?

Tony 1:02:14
Unfor­tu­nate­ly. [Cross talk 01:02:16].

Cameron 1:02:17
Yes. That’s just the way the cook­ie crum­bles.
Tony 1:02:23
Yes, I could have fudged it and gone ear­ly but I decid­ed not to and I’ve still made some good mon­ey out of CBA in par­tic­u­lar, I’ve got in and out of the oth­er ones.

Cameron 1:02:33
Right.

Tony 1:02:34
And that’s one of the issues I’m hav­ing at the moment is that our three-point trend lines for a lot of stocks com­ing out of COVID is real­ly steep.

Cameron 1:02:43
Yes.

Tony 1:02:43
They’re going up along the sell line.

Cameron 1:02:46
Yes.

Tony 1:02:46
Some­times touch­ing it, some­times cross­ing and then came back. It’s been an unchar­tered ter­ri­to­ry for me in terms of three-points sell lines for such a steep peri­od in the mar­ket real­ly but yes.

Cameron 1:02:57
Post crash with rapid recov­ery.

Tony 1:03:00
Cor­rect. It’s unusu­al.

Cameron 1:03:02
Right. That kind of a rapid MMT.

Tony 1:03:05
Incred­i­bly unusu­al.

Cameron 1:03:06
Alan Kohler, I saw you last week said it’s not tech­ni­cal­ly MMT, it just looks like MMT.

Tony 1:03:11
I think it is. I mean, we’re through the look­ing glass. Aren’t we real­ly like that? It looks like an econ­o­my, walks like an econ­o­my but it does­n’t smell like an econ­o­my at the moment. You’re going to lock down. We’ll give you some job keep­er. Well, I don’t care if you think you’re going to lose sales. Yes, take some. That’s great. Here’s some cash.

Cameron 1:03:33
If you’re a church, does­n’t mat­ter. Take cash. Take mil­lions and mil­lions of dol­lars.

Tony 1:03:40
Bil­lions. Yes and well, don’t you have to pay it back. It’s fine. Well, I’m going to tell peo­ple who got the cash.

Cameron 1:03:47
No.

Tony 1:03:47
That’s fine. But look guys, it was the Trea­sury fore­cast. It’s going to cost 120 bil­lion, it cost 60.

Cameron 1:03:54
Yes.

Tony 1:03:54
That’s great. Yes.

Cameron 1:03:56
And of course, imag­ine if labor was in charge and did all of this. The Mur­doch press would be out for blood.

Tony 1:04:04
Just like, I’ve nev­er seen that hap­pen before and then Reserve Bank, just print some more mon­ey and buy some more bonds and that all goes away?

Cameron 1:04:13
Well, any­way, we did OK. Nonethe­less.
Tony 1:04:16
Could have done bet­ter.

Cameron 1:04:17
Done well.

Tony 1:04:18
You can always do bet­ter but we did OK. We fol­lowed the rules. We did OK.

Cameron 1:04:22
Yes. All right. Let’s do your time. Can we do a cou­ple of ques­tions before we–

Tony 1:04:26
Yes, sure.

Cameron 1:04:27
OK, how you feel­ing? How’s the COVID shot going? How’s your AZ? Yes, good.

Tony 1:04:32
Yes, I’m good. Thanks.

Cameron 1:04:35
Dave from NUI. Now, we had a cou­ple of ques­tions from Dave last week and after we read him out, he sent me an email say­ing, on reflec­tion I real­ize they are way too long for lis­ten­ers and you and Tony. Sor­ry about that. I have a ten­den­cy to waf­fle when I write so I’ve short­ened my last two ques­tions below and I think we’ll give you one this week, Dave because oth­er­wise we won’t get to any oth­ers. Dogs of QAV fid­dling around with fil­ters in Stock Doc­tor, I end­ed up with a screen for three-year price change with a healthy price to cash flow and price to NTA also includ­ed. I then stack ranked for biggest neg­a­tive change and com­pared my lat­est QAV list, Sky tele­vi­sion NZ, code SKT is on the QAV watch list and third worst on a three-year price change. I dug a lit­tle deep­er and there are a bunch of risks plus they are not a buy on a 3ptl basis but fol­low­ing Tony’s exam­ple of putting his mon­ey where his mouth is with exper­i­ments, I’ve tak­en up a small posi­tion, I’ll let you know how it pro­gress­es. We’d be keen to hear Tony’s thoughts and/or if he’s ever mod­eled a dog’s type exper­i­ments. I think you have, right? You talked about that recent­ly.

Tony 1:05:49
Yes. I used to use some­thing sim­i­lar. I used to use the 10 stocks with the high­est fore­cast div­i­dend yield which cor­re­lat­ed pret­ty heav­i­ly to dogs of dow because their share price was bombed out and they were con­tin­u­ous­ly pay­ing div­i­dends and the yield was up from a fore­cast point of view. I think, well, it was about mar­ket, not QAV num­bers 14, 15% and that’s about when­ev­er I’ve gone back and looked at dogs of the Dow in terms of ganky, usu­al­ly every year they– Some­one pub­lish­es the results as a sto­ry in the news­pa­per, you can com­pare it and it’s been good but again, not– Has­n’t out­per­formed the mar­ket every year and prob­a­bly around the 13, 14% over time.

Cameron 1:06:36
Right.

Tony 1:06:37
Once I got my hooks into QAV, I let that go.

Cameron 1:06:42
Yes, right. OK.

Tony 1:06:45
I just want to say on SKT, I’ve– It’s got a good QAV score but I’m a lit­tle uncer­tain about its three- point trend­line.

Cameron 1:06:54
Let’s have a look.

Tony 1:06:55
I’m just going to call it up and also too it’s a stock I’ve known for quite a while. I lived in New Zealand for three years, about 10 years ago and it was– It’s been declin­ing– It’s been– I’ve looked at it a lot from 10 years ago and prob­a­bly every year since and it’s always score well from a val­ue per­spec­tive but it’s been in a falling knife sit­u­a­tion for a heck of a long time now.

Cameron 1:07:25
And it’s been flatlin­ing since the COVID cough. Pret­ty much.

Tony 1:07:30
Yes and I’m actu­al­ly get­ting it as a sell at the moment.

Cameron 1:07:34
Yes, I would­n’t touch that with a barge­pole. Not only because it’s a sky but yes, look at that. That’s a hor­ri­ble flat­line for 18 months.

Tony 1:07:47
Yes, I just want­ed to point out I don’t think it’s a buy at the moment. I’ve got it as a sell. Well, I’ve got a sell price of 18 cents and cur­rent­ly its 16 but it’s pret­ty hard to draw that sell line.

Cameron 1:07:56
Yes, Dave did say they’re not a buy on a three-point trend line basis. We would agree with that. But good luck, Dave. Let’s know how it goes. I hope you like what he’s doing, part of the beach par­ty at NUI last week, Dave. That’s all.

Dun­can want­ed to know. This is last week, how you draw a sell line on Rio.

Tony 1:08:21
Yes. OK, not too hard. What have I got? Rio. I find my notes.

Cameron 1:08:28
Well, it’s sell– It’s l1 is August 2016 at 47.6 and but it’s about to fall off like in a cou­ple of weeks.

Tony 1:08:40
Right. I’ve got l1 the same as l2’s COVID cough and a sell line of $98.68. Sell price, sor­ry.

Cameron 1:08:49
Right. You would­n’t fudge this thing see­ing as it’s about to fall off the end there?

Tony 1:08:56
No, we could. Let me have a look at it.

Cameron 1:08:57
I don’t know if it would make much dif­fer­ence because then you’d have your new low point would be Novem­ber 18 and it’s pret­ty much the same, actu­al­ly.

Tony 1:09:09
Yes, the sell price goes through.

Cameron 1:09:11
Yes, but not by much, a cou­ple of bucks.

Tony 1:09:16
Yes. I’m also think­ing too, Cam like with all these com­modi­ties, we should prob­a­bly update the check­list and have a go, no-go if the com­modi­ties in a three-point trend sell phase.

Cameron 1:09:29
Right. OK.

Tony 1:09:31
For iron ore, for exam­ple, poten­tial­ly cop­per and gold. Because what’s going to hap­pen is if we don’t do that, Rio, Fortes­cue met­als, CIA, GRR, they’re prob­a­bly all going to be good scores but they’ll be on the buy list when we don’t nec­es­sar­i­ly want to buy them because their com­modi­ties are down­town– Are turn­ing down.

Cameron 1:09:52
Yes, but if I look at Rio, same with FMG it’s a Josephine right now. I would­n’t buy it any­way.

Tony 1:09:57
Right. OK. Yes. I think I should add that to the check­lists, I’ll just have to work out how to do that eas­i­ly.

Cameron 1:10:02
OK. Is it a Josephine? Just put that in Josephine calm.

Tony 1:10:07
Well, we should have that but I’m think­ing also too about the under­ly­ing com­modi­ties.

Cameron 1:10:11
Yes, OK. Yes, I need to put a Josephine in mine because I’m giv­ing them neg­a­tive sen­ti­ment when they’re real­ly not neg­a­tive, they’re pos­i­tive but it’s just a Josephine. I’ve been think­ing about putting a Josephine col­umn in mine or when I do yes or no, it’d be in the sen­ti­ment col­umn. It’d be nice to have Yes, No, Josephine. Josephine. She’s so con­fused.

Tony 1:10:38
Yes, its like the orig­i­nal Face­book slot. Josephine, No, Yes. Swipe left. Swipe right.

Cameron 1:10:44
Yes.

Tony 1:10:47
Well, we’ll call them swipe left from now on.

Cameron 1:10:54
Steve want­ed to know sell lines for CBA and DSK.

Tony 1:10:58
Yes, well, CBA is fair­ly obvi­ous. Let me get my notes out. CBA. I’ve got l1 of Sep­tem­ber 20 at 63.61 and l2 Feb­ru­ary 21, 81, 56 and the sell price is cur­rent­ly $100.55.

Cameron 1:11:16
You’re flatlin­ing to sell line here. Yes, right.

Tony 1:11:21
Yes, that’s it.

Cameron 1:11:24
What did you get is a sell price again, Sir?

Tony 1:11:27
Today, it’s $100.55.

Cameron 1:11:31
Right. Mine looks a bit high­er about 102. But OK. Good enough. Yes. It’s going up, the share price is going up but the sell line’s rac­ing to catch it.

Tony 1:11:47
Yes, again, it’s one of these ones com­ing out of COVID, isn’t it? Which ans CBA dropped the low­est sell line a cou­ple of weeks ago and I was going to sell it but then it came back the next day so I kept it.

Cameron 1:11:57
Yes and DSK.

Tony 1:12:01
DSK is a hard one but I’ll just tell you my think­ing on it. DSK, I’ll still use the five. It’s a new list­ing but also use the five-year month­ly chart.

Cameron 1:12:13
Yes. I may have bought this. I can’t even remem­ber. I know I looked at it. Oh, no. I decid­ed to wait a while ago. Yes, but it’s a Josephine. I think so. I did­n’t. Well, it is a Josephine. No think­ing about it. That’s why I did­n’t buy.

Tony 1:12:28
Stock Doc­tor’s gone to sleep on me.

Cameron 1:12:30
They must be run­ning on the same plat­form as super­hero.

Tony 1:12:32
Yes, here we go. OK, it real­ly is only one tough– Trough, sor­ry, on the DSK. Five-Year month­ly, which is March 2021 at a price of 294. I ran a line from– Well, you can do two things. I ran it first of all from the list­ing price.

Cameron 1:12:57
Yes.

Tony 1:12:58
But then there was a like a shoul­der all caught like a half trough around Jan­u­ary.

Cameron 1:13:03
Yes.

Tony 1:13:04
I use that as l1.

Cameron 1:13:07
Oh, use the shoul­der as l1?

Tony 1:13:08
Yes, where the line dropped below there and that’s a 221 and I drew the line up using that trough which is there in March.

Cameron 1:13:18
Yes.

Tony 1:13:20
And I’m get­ting a sell. Let’s cross sell line and I’m get­ting your sell price around about– Well, it’s going above the graph. When it crossed, it would have been around 370.

Cameron 1:13:30
Yes. OK.

Tony 1:13:32
Yes and the share price is 348. That’s how I draw it.

Cameron 1:13:36
Yes. All right. Well, I think we draw a line under it there. What do you think?

Tony 1:13:43
Yes, I think so. We’ve cov­ered a lot. We haven’t done stock of the week. We’ve talked about enough stocks here that peo­ple should get a fla­vor for it. We’ll do a stock of the week next time.

Cameron 1:13:51
Yes. I have plen­ty of oth­er stuff to talk about but it can wait. Yes. OK.

Tony 1:13:59
Yes. OK and sor­ry, we did­n’t get to all the ques­tions. We will attempt to do that next week.

Cameron 1:14:05
Yes.

Tony 1:14:06
Report­ing sea­son, two peo­ple. Stay on top of that.

Cameron 1:14:09
Yes.

Tony 1:14:10
We have had some good reports from Corvus [pho­net­ic], from cred­it Corp. A. few oth­ers have come through, CBA comes through this week.

Cameron 1:14:21
Yes.

Tony 1:14:22
Stick close to the num­bers.

Cameron 1:14:23
Right. Thank you, TK. You had some music you want­ed to talk about before we go?

Tony 1:14:30
Oh, no, I just I just made some notes because you asked me every week. Well, I’ve been lis­ten­ing to Watch­ing to. Yes. I always get put on the spot and I think about it after­wards, I should have said that.

Cameron 1:14:40
Do you lis­ten on Spo­ti­fy?

Tony 1:14:42
No, I use Apple Music.

Cameron 1:14:44
OK, I was going to say we should cre­ate a Tony’s playlist– Shared playlist on Spo­ti­fy.

Tony 1:14:50
Fat pop. What’s fat pop? Well, its a new album.

Cameron 1:14:55
Oh, real­ly good. You’re a big Paul Weller fan.

Tony 1:14:58
I am yes, that’s real­ly good and then we had a anoth­er one came out I just got onto last night. The Pet Shop Boys have done a cov­er of a cou­ple of sin­gles which are real­ly good to extend­ed mix­es. Yes.

Cameron 1:15:10
And you want me to talk about oblique strat­e­gy cards briefly here?

Tony 1:15:14
Yes, you post­ed it on Face­book. What’s going on there?

Cameron 1:15:16
Yes, I’ve been want­i­ng to get these for a long time. Bri­an Eno. Sure, you know who Bri­an Eno is?
Tony 1:15:31
Yes.

Cameron 1:15:42
He was the band, he was in orig­i­nal­ly Bri­an fairies band.

Tony 1:15:42
Roxy Music.

Cameron 1:15:42
Roxy Music. He was the key­boardist of Roxy Music and then he became a pro­duc­er of Bowie’s exper­i­men­tal stuff in the 70s and he’s pro­duced mil­lions of dif­fer­ent peo­ple’s albums.

Tony 1:15:42
Yes.

Cameron 1:15:42
Col­lab­o­rates with David Bowie.

Tony 1:15:44
With David Byrne.

Cameron 1:15:45
Yes, Byrne. Yes, he’s one of those guys who if you need some deep think­ing done on your sound and your direc­tion, you go to Bri­an Eno. In 1975, I think it was he in a major his anoth­er musi­cian, not a painter, Steve some­thing, put togeth­er these things called Oblique Strate­gies cards for them­selves orig­i­nal­ly and then they end­ed up sell­ing them. It was just a cou­ple of 100 lit­tle cards with ways of think­ing out­side the box to chal­lenge them­selves. If they got stuck on a prob­lem, they just pull a ran­dom card out and it would have some Zen-like say­ing on it and then they would ask them­selves, well, how could we apply that? These are my cards that arrived, I final­ly bought them because I’m work­ing on a sim­i­lar card pack.

The thing with Peter Elliot, I’m try­ing to take a lot of Peters stuff and turn it into cards that are more acces­si­ble than a 400-page book with 38 ideas every page and I’m like, no one can read a book any­more, we need– If we break them down into lit­tle cards that you can pull out that just make you think about some­thing. If I pull off Peter Schmidt was the name of the oth­er guy. If I pull out a ran­dom card, this one is, once the search is in progress, some­thing will be found.

Tony 1:16:28
Well, that sounds like the iron ore price, does­n’t it? we’re try­ing to decide whether we sell Fortes­cue met­als.

Cameron 1:17:13
I tell you the first one I’ve pulled out a cou­ple of days ago, when I got it was, not build­ing a wall but mak­ing a brick and I thought, try to apply that to QAV as a ser­vice. OK, I start­ed think­ing about QAV in terms of bricks, what are all the com­po­nents that we now deliv­er in QAV and I got a list of about 20 and then I spoke to you and you added a few more. There’s 23 dif­fer­ent things at the moment that we’re work­ing on in QAV, indi­vid­ual ser­vice com­po­nents. This thing start­ed off as let’s talk for once a week, an hour about a pod­cast and it’s turned into this thing that has lots of dif­fer­ent facets.

Then I start­ed think­ing about OK, well, with each of these bricks, what’s my vision for each of the bricks? If they were oper­at­ing at 100% capac­i­ty, what would that look like? Can I write where they are now? And what do I need to do to get each of them from where they are now to 100% capac­i­ty? What’s the plan for each of the bricks? And that led me to think­ing about our onboard­ing process. When some­body dis­cov­ers QAV is a brand new lis­ten­er, they know noth­ing about us, how do we take them from that to feel­ing pro­fi­cient with QAV? How do we com­press that amount of time as much as pos­si­ble? And that led me think­ing, well, it’s just a bit of a hot mess at the moment, the way that we do that because it’s grow­ing ran­dom­ly and peo­ple have some of our ear­ly lis­ten­ers and mem­bers gave us feed­back, you need this, you knew you should ever get­ting start­ed guide, which became the Bible, you should have this, you should have that. Like when we start­ed, we did­n’t even have the dum­my port­fo­lio, we did­n’t have the Bible, we did­n’t have, you know, all of this stuff which is emerged grad­u­al­ly but it’s a bit of a mess. I’m look­ing at hir­ing some­one to come in and take a fresh look at it and say, OK, well, the best way to get some­one from zero to hero would be through this set of steps in this process. Any­way, that’s what the Oblique Strate­gies cards are.

That’s just every morn­ing, this is my exer­cise. Now, before I do email or any­thing, I pull a card out and I sit down with pen and paper for half an hour and it just prompts me to think in a dif­fer­ent way about QAV than I would oth­er­wise, right, because you get stuck in pat­terns of think­ing over time and it’s very hard to think out­side of your exist­ing think­ing. Yes, I’m excit­ed. It’s– I love get­ting being prompt­ed to think dif­fer­ent­ly about solv­ing prob­lems and it does­n’t always lead to any­thing. It might go nowhere. But Mila. If once a week, it gives me a good idea about how we can make some­thing bet­ter than good.

Tony 1:20:10
Yes. Jen­ny’s reach­ing out to a cou­ple of peo­ple to do that process for you.

Cameron 1:20:16
Oh, good.

Tony 1:20:17
The onboard­ing review.

Cameron 1:20:18
Yes. I’ve– Since I post­ed some­thing on Face­book, a few peo­ple got back to me as well. I’ve start­ed some con­ver­sa­tions but yes, good if we can have half a dozen con­ver­sa­tions with dif­fer­ent peo­ple and then get some ideas and some quotes and stuff. That’d be great. Thanks. Well, that’s it from me. This week ses­sion. Yes, you must be exhaust­ed. Sor­ry.

Tony 1:20:36
That’s all right.

Cameron 1:20:44
All right. Have a good week mate. Stay save you to your lit­tle hidey hole on there. Cheers. Bye.

Tony 1:20:47
Ok bye.