QAV Blog

Invest­ing insights, pod­cast episodes, and mar­ket analy­sis.

TK Journal: 2020-05-21

From today I’m going to start keep­ing a pub­lic record of the notes Tony sends me here, rather than post­ing them in the Face­book group, so they are eas­i­er to find lat­er. — Last night I analysed White­haven Coal (WHC) again and added a price alert to Stock Doc­tor of…

QAV S03E16 — The Data Hoarder

This week we have a 100 minute pre­mi­um episode answer­ing all of your excel­lent ques­tions about sub­jects such as:
— banks and sen­ti­ment
— AQG / SSR merg­er
— Stan­more Coal acqui­si­tion offer
— Buy­ing more when the price drops below the buy line
— Using a 5 yr/weekly chart to help fine tune your trend lines
— using the check­list to score LICs
— hold­ing back on the retail sec­tor
— thoughts about oil glut and prices affect­ing Oil/Coal com­pa­nies 
— Dur­ing times of volatil­i­ty (like GFC or dot com bust) did Tony notice a sim­i­lar increase in buy/sell? 
— How Tony stages his entry into a posi­tion
— How he regres­sion test the results/model
— The buy line for OSH
— SFC sell price and recent update on their finan­cials
— How does Tony decides what per­cent­age of his cap­i­tal to invest when he BUY stocks such as MQG
— How to analyse the TGP graph
— Why the TRS, WPL and MQG charts are dif­fer­ent
— and Tony also intro­duces his new mag­ic 3PTL maths.

QAV S03E14 — Stock Detectives

Tony talks about some of his recent “mus­ings” regard­ing bank stocks and com­par­ing the results of his analy­sis of using Stock Doc­tor fil­ters ver­sus our three-point trend lines. Then we talk about his rea­sons for our recent port­fo­lio buys and sells.

QAV S03E12 — Buy Line Follows The Sell Line

We talk about the recent Berk­shire Hath­away AGM, Tony “mus­es” about buy­ing NAB with­out wait­ing for pos­i­tive sen­ti­ment (shock! hor­ror!), dis­cuss­es some new the­o­ries about using Stock Doc­tor fil­ters, and then he answers a ton of your ques­tions about — pyra­mid­ing — whether or not Tony ever sets a mar­gin where he always cash­es in the prof­it — how to cal­cu­late  the intrin­sic val­ue of each of the top 20 stocks — and a heap of ques­tions about draw­ing three-point trend lines.

Value v Growth: Good Companies vs Good Investments

From the desk of Tony Kynas­ton: In yes­ter­days QAV pod­cast [episode 310] I men­tioned that there is a dif­fer­ence between find­ing a good com­pa­ny and find­ing a good invest­ment. This fol­lowed on from a con­ver­sa­tion we had with Jack­son and Ricky from the Syd­ney…

QAV S03E10 — Play By The Rules

Today we answer your ques­tions about why we’re buy­ing back into the mar­ket even though Tony has doubts over the recov­ery — how we account for the qual­i­ty of man­age­ment in our analy­sis — how much atten­tion Tony pays to vol­ume of shares trad­ed — Stock Doc­tor’s “Price to Cash­flow” and “Price to NTA” fil­ters — how to cal­cu­late three-point trend line sell sig­nals — how the check­list weights ‘qual­i­ty’ vs ‘val­ue’ met­rics — how patient Tony is with a stock if it drops soon after he buys it (ver­sus “you breach you gone”) — Stock Doc­tor’s dilut­ed weight­ed no. of ordi­nary shares vs ‘Ful­ly Paid Ord. Shares’ — HAW’s future cash flow — Mil­ton Cor­po­ra­tion’s con­fer­ence call — and how to go about set­ting up a brand new port­fo­lio.

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