Transcript QAV 428

Orig­i­nal Episode: QAV 428 Club

Cameron 00:07
Wel­come back to QAV, TK. Episode 428. Still in lock­down. It was just like Episode 427.  And you told me ear­li­er that some­body said that it could go on for a long time. Nor­man Swan said some­thing?

Tony 00:27
Yep, still. Still here still at home. He did.… Pro­fes­sor Nor­man Swan today.… You could just see the faces of the peo­ple inter­view­ing him. They just dropped. It was like, they were talk­ing about the COVID out­break in Syd­ney. And I think we had 117 cas­es yes­ter­day, and we’ve got 89 today or some­thing. He said, ‘Yes, this could go on for 5 or 6 months in Syd­ney’. He said, ‘You may still… He’s in Syd­ney. So he said, ‘We may still be here until Christ­mas’, which was a cheery thought. Very sur­pris­ing, because, you know, the gov­ern­ment still says or maybe next week, maybe next week.

Cameron 01:02
Wow. So how are you hold­ing up?

Tony 01:05
Yes, I’m good. Real­ly. It’s been a bit of a hol­i­day. I’m prob­a­bly start­ing to get a bit bored now. It’s been three weeks. But now, I’m good. I’m just enjoy­ing it. I was telling some­one ear­li­er today, I think I’ve saved about 2 hours a day by not going for walks and not play­ing golf and prac­tic­ing golf, going to the gym, all that kind of stuff. So yes, I’ve just been catch­ing up on all the old jobs and lots of the progress on QAV on three point trend­line automa­tion and Dylan’s back test­ing and all that’s been good.

Cameron 01:37
You’re get­ting some exer­cise in that?

Tony 01:39
Yes, I do about half an hour of stretch­ing and tight­en­ing in the morn­ing still, only just to keep my back in order… [crosstalk]

Cameron 01:46
Have you got a tread­mill?

Tony 01:47
No, I was one down stairs, but we can’t use it.

Cameron 01:51
The gym now you should get one just deliv­ered put it on the deck. [unin­tel­li­gi­ble 01:56] tread­mill over­look­ing a bike or some­thing. If you are going to there for six months?

Tony 02:00
Well, we can’t. Offi­cial­ly we can go for a 10k walk like you can go 10k radius. So I mean, I was [crosstalk 02:07] for the last cou­ple of weeks because we had a COVID case in the build­ing but that’s get­ting clos­er and clos­er to two weeks ago. So I think when that hap­pens, I’ll feel a lot more com­fort­able going out into the local area.

Cameron 02:19
Right… Get going on walks. And I believe we’re start­ing a cook­ing show spin off from this. What’s cook­ing TK? We’re going to call it, you’ve been cook­ing? You told me.

Tony 02:33
Yes, Jen­ny and I both cook. We have been going doing like one big shop a week, which is like we used to do before we moved into the city apart­ment. And then cook­ing.… So you prob­a­bly only have two meals a day. So calo­ries have been rationed back since we’re not going out all the time. And we’re not exer­cis­ing. It’s actu­al­ly being good. [crosstalk 02:56] cooked on Sun­day.

Cameron 02:59
I did not know that you knew how to cook. I’m shocked.

Tony 03:05
Oh, yeah, I raised a fam­i­ly, mate. You can’t not do that.

Cameron 03:08
[laugh­ter] Yes fair point. Good stuff. Well, that’s good. I’m glad you’re keep­ing your spir­its up. I’ll tell you what raised my spir­its in the last week was look­ing at the open end­ed equi­ty fund per­for­mance in Morn­ingstar for the 2021 finan­cial year. Some real­ly great results there. Per­pet­u­al Whole­sale Geared Aus­tralian 98% return. Aus­bil Aus­tralian Geard Equi­ty 86% return. AMP Cap­i­tal Spe­cial­ist Geared AUS Share A 70% return, Sphe­ria Aus­tralian Small­er Com­pa­nies 57%, PM Cap­i­tal Glob­al Com­pa­nies 52, Pen­gana Emerg­ing Com­pa­nies 50%, Van­guard Inter­na­tion­al Small Com­pa­nies Index 49%. And then com­ing in at num­ber 8 Spot QAV port­fo­lio at 48%, lead­ing Hype­r­i­on Glob­al Growth Com­pa­nies at 46%. If we were a fund, we would have come in at num­ber 8 last year.

Tony 03:27
Yes, that’s pret­ty low for us. We should be aim­ing high­er. I think we should be going out and gear­ing the fund.

Cameron 04:21
Would that make any dif­fer­ence?

Tony 04:22
Well, that’s what some of those, I think the top per­former was geared, was­n’t it? So it should dou­ble your returns if you’re 100% geared.

Cameron 04:27
OK, is that how that works?

Tony 04:29
Yes, it’s a return on equi­ty and I think they’re quot­ing return on equi­ty. So if you’ve got lots of debt also exposed to the same strat­e­gy you should be mak­ing twice the returns. Think back when we had GEAR and our port­fo­lio which was a geared Aussie Stock ETF… if you have a look at the share price graph of that and com­pare it to the ASX, it basi­cal­ly went up twice as fast and crashed twice as fast because of the gear­ing. Last year when the COVID cough was going on, we spoke about peo­ple gear­ing up to buy back in I wish I had, because like that kind of 48% return would have been much high­er if we geared up to do it.

Cameron 05:10
Well, as I point­ed out in my Face­book post on this, you know, I’m sure all of these funds have huge staff of full time high­ly paid high­ly skilled pro­fes­sion­als work­ing 80 hours a week devot­ing them­selves run­ning their funds. You spend, I don’t know, half an hour a week think­ing about what QAV port­fo­lio should do, over cof­fee look­ing at your win­dow, and you beat 7 of them.… You beat all but 7 of them, I mean to say. Well, there you go. And I was sur­prised by this, actu­al­ly. Because I thought well, the mar­ket had a great year last year’s. As we said last week best year record­ed his­to­ry for the ASX. Maybe in pre record­ed his­to­ry in the before times before we record­ed things. The ASX did bet­ter, but, and yet those per­for­mances weren’t always think­ing there would be like 300% and 400%, and all that kind of stuff but appar­ent­ly they did­n’t all just by after­pay. And hold on to it all year long.

Tony 06:22
Yes, well, I mean, to be fair to them, they’re prob­a­bly oper­at­ing a much big­ger fund. So they would­n’t have C6C and some of those small­er com­pa­nies that we have true in their [crosstalk 06:33] But I guess to put it also in per­spec­tive, I doubt if there’s many peo­ple out there who are com­plete­ly invest­ed in one of those funds. They usu­al­ly would spread them­selves over a num­ber of funds, just to bal­ance out diver­si­fy the risk, which would have been the stan­dard sort of finan­cial advice but good luck for some­one if they were holy spoil­ers invest­ed in one of those funds but, you know, I’d be fair­ly cer­tain those funds won’t be the top funds next year because there’ll be a dogs of the Dow in rever­sal sort of the thing that goes on with fund man­agers that one par­tic­u­lar strat­e­gy, like gear­ing into over­seas small caps has worked well this year, but it may not work next year. I know from my expe­ri­ence that the QAVs always up there in terms of its per­for­mance. It’s very rare that it under­per­forms that league table.

Cameron 07:28
But it’s a good point that you know, we’re buy­ing some of the small­er stocks that they would­n’t be able to invest in speak­ing of which, I think you know, I bought GLE a lit­tle while back, it’s moved. It’s done noth­ing. Then it rock­et­ed up 3% out of nowhere today and then fell 6% an hour lat­er, so Tay­lor and I were high fiv­ing at 10 o’clock, and by 11 o’clock we were cry­ing. So I thought it was him that sold. I thought it went up and then it was him or his mate Chris it got out as went up just to crash my my hold­ings. Alright, oth­er news of the week Mark Mangano sent us a note one on Face­book, ‘Just want to say thanks as a com­plete­ly novice investor, I’ve end­ed up with a 61.63% total return for the last finan­cial year accord­ing to share site. Obvi­ous­ly not expect­ing that sort of return every year but QAV is def­i­nite­ly work­ing well for me’. Con­grat­u­la­tions, Mark.

Tony 08:34
He’s where is he on the fund table. He’d be num­ber one would­n’t he?

Cameron 08:39
He be num­ber 1, 2, 3, 4?.… He’d be num­ber 4.

Tony 08:43
Yes hold on, Mark, you might have a new career.

Cameron 08:47
Yes, he should email some of these fund man­agers and say, ‘Hey, you know, I need a job. You should hire me’. Buf­fett and the ABCs Tony… I read this inter­est­ing arti­cle say­ing that War­ren Buf­fett warned the Bill and Melin­da Gates Foun­da­tion CEO about the ABCs which he was talk­ing about I think the foun­da­tion and you know, as he’s sort of leav­ing active par­tic­i­pa­tion in the foun­da­tion, he obvi­ous­ly had sort of an exit meet­ing with the CEO there and said to him that, ‘he sees the big threats to orga­ni­za­tions like that, Arro­gance Bureau­cra­cy and Com­pla­cen­cy’. ‘The ABCs — cock­i­ness red tape and self sat­is­fac­tion’, he said is the killer of all very large orga­ni­za­tions. Although that was an inter­est­ing quote com­ing from War­ren. He’s prob­a­bly been inside many large orga­ni­za­tions. It’s inter­est­ing to hear him say some­thing like that. What did you think of that?

Tony 09:53
Yes, he’s been say­ing it for years. And if you look at how Berk­shire Hath­away runs, he tries and keeps the admin [unin­tel­lige­able 10:00] It’s down to a real­ly small per­cent­age of the cor­po­rate over­heads of total size. So I guess you mea­sure by total sales, maybe but he’s always said that he’s got a team of… He used to talk about a team of 16, it’s prob­a­bly more like 25 these days.… Head office does­n’t need report­ing to come in from busi­ness heads on what they’re doing. You know, I got a prob­lem ring him up, you need to make an invest­ment, you got this much to do it your­self with but oth­er­wise, give me a call this much lee­way to do it your­self. Oth­er­wise, give me a call. So, yes, it’s a very dif­fer­ent way of run­ning a busi­ness. And it’s a real­ly good way of run­ning your busi­ness when you think that big cor­po­ra­tions and I’m look­ing out the win­dow. Now those big tow­ers in town. And, you know, they’re run­ning cor­po­rate over­heads, and maybe 10% of of sales or 10% of prof­its, even some­times. That’s a huge drag on a busi­ness. You know, we both work for big busi­ness­es, we just see rows and rows and rows of work­sta­tions and won­der what they all do so and a lot of it’s doing busi­ness with your­self. It’s com­pli­ance, it’s HR, it’s all that kind of stuff. I don’t think Berk­shire Hath­away has a HR depart­ment. It’d be HR depart­ments in the trad­ing com­pa­nies, I would think but yes, Berk­shire Hath­away does­n’t see a need to do it. So yes, it’s so refresh­ing way to run a busi­ness. It’s more like a small busi­ness run­ning a big busi­ness.

Cameron 11:31
Yes. It remind­ed me the Arro­gance and Bureau­cra­cy thing of when I did work at Microsoft, because I saw a lot of that in Microsoft­’s hey­day, very arro­gant, very bureau­crat­ic. And it remind­ed me of; there was an email leaked recent­ly that I saw that Bill sent to his senior exec­u­tives at Microsoft, when Steve Jobs launched the iTunes store in 2005. I think it was just after I left Microsoft. Now 2003, I think it was, I was still there. And Bill was like, how did he do this? I have no idea, they had no idea was com­ing. Bill had no idea how Steve could have got the record com­pa­nies to agree to it. And he was talk­ing about the stream­ing apps that they were involved with then real etc, real net­works, and how they just been com­plete­ly Quan­tum Leaped by Steve and it was that kind of stuff at Microsoft, I think they just got very com­pla­cent to with their con­trol of the world. And then Steve came along and launched the iPod, the iTunes Store, the phone, the iPad, and and then died and did the quad fac­tor.

Tony 12:54
I can believe your sto­ry about Microsoft not know­ing about the iPod before it was launched. Oth­er­wise, they would have done it them­selves first. So, I had a whole his­to­ry of just copy­ing what­ev­er Apple did, includ­ing the oper­at­ing sys­tem when win­dows came out.

Cameron 13:10
Yes, well, I remem­ber, when the iPhone came out, Steve Ballmer, who was run­ning the com­pa­ny at the time famous­ly did a lot of press say­ing it was going to file the iPhone. Nobody want­ed the iphone, Apple did­n’t know any­thing about mak­ing devices, etc, cetera, etcetera. So he kind of signed his own res­ig­na­tion. [crosstalk 13:29]

Tony 13:32
And then he launched the Microsoft phone.

Cameron 13:35
Yes, which flopped. Ok. Over to you. Your trades. You want­ed to talk about some trades you did last week and why you skipped retail­ers?

Tony 13:49
Yes. So last week, I flagged that I was going to do, a sale of vir­gin UK. And then I was going to ribuy with those funds because I was wait­ing 48 hours for the show to go out and giv­ing peo­ple time to make their own deci­sions on what to do. I did­n’t want to front run any­thing by talk­ing about what I was going to buy before the pod­cast went out but I did give a list of four stocks that I was con­sid­er­ing. And you know, one of the rea­sons for hav­ing 4 was that I did­n’t know what was going to hap­pen in 48 hours, one of them might go up or nine might go down or what­ev­er. But what I found and I’m shar­ing this now not so that peo­ple should be doing what I did, but they can see my think­ing behind what I did. So it’s not a rec­om­men­da­tion in any sort of shape or form. But what I found was there was there was two retails on the lis­ten to gold com­pa­ny. So there was JB HI-FI and a Grey Daze and there was Ramelius [pho­net­ic 14:46] Resources and Sil­ver Lake Resources.

Tony 14:48
So 4 com­pa­nies.… I think from mem­o­ry, the retail­ers may even have been slight­ly high­er on the list or one of them may have been slight­ly high­er, but I did skip over it and the rea­son why was; if you have a look at their share graphs, even though they’re still in buy ter­ri­to­ry, so they’re well above their sell prices and above their buy prices too by a long way, they’ve been trend­ing down recent­ly. So they’ve been drop­ping off. And I don’t like nec­es­sar­i­ly putting new cap­i­tal into some­thing which is in that sit­u­a­tion. So even though it’s in a long term buy, if it’s trend­ing down, I’ll wait and see if it turns around and and look to reestab­lish when it does get an uptick. But a gold min­ers were on the uptick sit­u­a­tion.

Tony 15:33
So I went in bought some of those instead, I also already had some small­ish posi­tions in Ramelius and Sil­ver Lake. So it was nice to add to those to bring them up to a sort of core weight­ing in the port­fo­lio. And that was his­tor­i­cal­ly the case, because I don’t know for a long time, but had­n’t had into them for a long time. So that was good. The oth­er thing I just want to sort of, I guess, talk about as amus­ing, so not nec­es­sar­i­ly a hard and fast rule at the moment, but some­thing I’m think­ing about if you have a look at the graphs for some of those, the Gold stocks in par­tic­u­lar. And then we can com­pare maybe to one of the retail­ers but pull out say RMS, which we’ll start with first, just kind of call up and stock doc­tor [pho­net­ic 16:16] here. You can see that, it’s clear­ly in a buy ter­ri­to­ry sit­u­a­tion. But you can see that.… if you look at the high point, if you’re com­ing to this graph ratio just using our basic rules, which is used the high point, and then the one to the right, so the high points July 2020. And the next high point to the right would be Sep­tem­ber 2020. If you draw a line, you’ve almost got like a recent buy for this par­tic­u­lar stock.

Tony 16:53
So even though it would have been in buy ter­ri­to­ry for a long time, going back to at least April 2020. And prob­a­bly even going back fur­ther to Decem­ber 2018, if not even ear­li­er, because it’s been in a gen­er­al uptrend for a while. I’m just sort of think­ing about this idea of what I call a sec­ond peak. So rather than going back and look­ing at the buy line sign fol­low­ing the sell line and work­ing out when it would have been bought. It’s also in a bua at the moment as well, which is start­ing to firm in my mind as being a nice test. If you’re com­ing into a com­pa­ny that has been in an uptrend for a while. And you’re won­der­ing whether it’s sort of good to go into it again, I haven’t done much test­ing on that but just the thought and if you com­pare it back to say a dares.

Cameron 17:50
Hold on. Before you move off there, can I ask a ques­tion about Ramelius.

Tony 17:52
Yes, sure.

Cameron 17:53
So, there was a peak on the 31st of May when it hit $1.97. But then it dropped back at by the end of June to $1.695, and it’s still sort of around $1.69 now. Isn’t does­n’t that you know, sort of look like the bank sit­u­a­tion where it’s dropped off for the last 5, 6 weeks.

Tony 18:19
Yes, it has. And I must admit, when I bought it, it was slight­ly picked up there, at the very last drop dur­ing the month. So it’s come back a lit­tle bit back to being a flat­line but the point I was mak­ing is more about the fac­tors back into a sec­ond buy sit­u­a­tion.

Cameron 18:35
Yes, I thought that bit. You were say­ing just ear­li­er that when things are sort of trend­ing down­wards, you want to wait until they do an uptick. I’m just not sure how this would look going by that rule but you said it was com­ing back up when you bought it. [crosstalk 18:50]

Tony 18:54
Yes, I’m pret­ty sure when I looked at it on Fri­day, when I bought on Thurs­day night, it was back up. So that last flat­line was slight­ly up.…

Cameron 19:01
Sor­ry, so I’m just mov­ing to a 30 days dai­ly view. So what was Fri­day the [unin­tel­lige­ably 19:09]. This is dol­lar 60. So the dol­lar 64 on the night, it’s even low­er, but then it came back up to dol­lar 71 and then drop back down.

Tony 19:23
So, at the moment it’s going flat. at one stage it was going up, amd it’s come back down again a lit­tle bit. But yes, now I’m gen­er­al­ly hap­py that’s still in an uptrend. If you com­pare it to the retail­ers, they will prob­a­bly even con­trast that a bit more. [crosstalk 19:36] Yes, so you can see that, it’s def­i­nite­ly come back. And if you looked at the graph now it went to the high­est point, there is no peak to the right. So it’s pret­ty hard to draw a buy line. So it’s dropped off from its high point. So that’s one of the rea­sons why I decid­ed to leave.

Cameron 19:58
You mean hard to draw a sec­ond buy line.

Tony 20:00
A sec­ond buy line cor­rect.…. We can draw a buy line. It’s cer­tain­ly in buy ter­ri­to­ry. But just this idea of get­ting anoth­er sig­nal. A more recent sig­nal I think is inter­est­ing. So any­way, that’s some­thing are watch­ing that was cer­tain­ly in my mind when I was doing the research into these com­pa­nies last week. Not rec­om­mend­ed at all, not telling peo­ple they should sell if they already have these stocks. It’s by no means a rec­om­men­da­tion either way. I just want­ed to explain my think­ing about what I did last week. It was kind of inter­est­ing.

Cameron 20:33
So let’s talk about HUM. I did say a cou­ple of months ago, that HUM is a dumb name, but I went and bought it any­way because it had a good score. And then it hit some trou­bles. So for this Forum Finance busi­ness last week, I know that it’s up 3% today at the moment.

Tony 20:54
Yes. And I think sen­ti­ments got to be a bit of a guide here because it is sail­ing rea­son­ably close to it sell line. I think it’s gonna be around sort of 94 cents, maybe it’s back up to $1. It got down clos­er to that last week when they made an announce­ment. But I was a bit dis­ap­point­ed. The announce­ment was a bit light on detail. I don’t know if they’ve made anoth­er one recent­ly, since last week when I last had a look. To sum­ma­rize, there’s a com­pa­ny called Forum Finance which the West­pac bank, are tak­ing to court and try­ing to get wound up to repay some debts. Forum Finance is a com­pa­ny.…. Again, there’s not much infor­ma­tion out in the mar­ket­place, but from what I’ve read is a com­pa­ny which arranges equip­ment leas­es and equip­ment finance.

Tony 21:53
So, it’s a mid­dle­man I guess, with the bank. So the bank will then Forum Finance mon­ey and and for­eign finance will go out and break that down to the small parcels and allow peo­ple to buy equip­ment on leas­es, like pho­to copiers, print­ers. This is often a big thing in a cater­ing field. So I think cof­fee shop you talk­ing about the cof­fee mak­er, and the big Ital­ian espres­so machine might be on an equip­ment lease. And then for­eign finance would make their mon­ey out of the gap between what they can bor­row the amount for and what they can lend it for to the bear­ing cus­tomers. Now looks like West­pac are alleg­ing that all of the invoic­es that a lot of the year, appli­ca­tions that for­eign finance used from end cus­tomers to arrange loans were fraud­u­lent. And I’ve con­firmed that with a cou­ple of the lead­ing cus­tomers who are large, like some of the big retail­ers.

Tony 22:50
So the guy who runs the Forum Finance has left the coun­try. Any­way, this is all play­ing out in the course at the moment. And I don’t want to allege any­thing at the moment until we get res­o­lu­tion but the strange thing was [unin­tel­li­gi­ble 23:06], which is high, I point­ed out and our check­list came out last week and said they had­n’t expo­sure, because of all this of $12 mil­lion now. That’s pret­ty much all they said. They said that they had some of these equip­ment financ­ing, I guess loans on their books, and they sold that in the past or some­body else. So it’s a bit hard to under­stand exact­ly what their expo­sure is but I guess what they’re say­ing is it some­how Forum Finance, if they’ve pros­e­cut­ed fraud, and maybe also bor­rowed mon­ey from from harm, which is in the busi­ness of again, loan­ing peo­ple mon­ey, it’s a it’s a buy now pay lat­er oper­a­tor that’s been around for a long time. And peo­ple will know when from going into a Wych­wood store and maybe putting a fridge on on 4848 months inter­est free terms, for exam­ple, that is often pro­vid­ed for by home which used to be called Flexi group. So we don’t have much infor­ma­tion and one of the peo­ple on the Face­book group on on the QA, the Face­book group asked a ques­tion about it.

Tony 24:13
So that’s, that’s as much as I know, it’s kind of pecu­liar that harm hav­ing expo­sure if they sold that loan book to some­body else, but maybe there’s a clause in that sale agree­ment, which, you know, pro­vides some kind of war­ran­ty to the pur­chas­er. I’m not sure. But my response was until we know more infor­ma­tion, we sit tight, and we look at the sen­ti­ment, which is turned up today. So maybe peo­ple are start­ing to work out that the raw mil­lion dol­lar expo­sure is may not be as bad as first thought.

24:44
Mm hmm.

Cameron 24:46
All right. Well, thanks for explain­ing that. I read I read the announce­ment last week as well. I was like yeah, what are you try­ing to tell me? Yeah, I don’t real­ly know is this is this bad. yet? It actu­al­ly I got The impres­sion they did­n’t real­ly know, they were like, Lis­ten, we got to put some­thing out. We have an oblig­a­tion, but we don’t real­ly know yet what what it all means?

Tony 25:07
Yeah, pos­si­bly. And it’s often­times when the when the notice goes out and it’s pret­ty scant that they’re try­ing to com­ply with their oblig­a­tions to keep the mar­ket informed. But they haven’t had time to run it the ground yet and work out what’s going on. So yeah, that could be the case.

Cameron 25:22
I’ve got the sell price in stock doc­tor, the alert set for 91.8 cents, by the way.

Tony 25:29
Okay, I just did a rule check. There’s about 94. But okay.

Cameron 25:34
Okay. Some­where around that. Well, hope­ful­ly, I don’t have to wor­ry about that. We’ll see. Yeah. The dogs of the doubt. 2017. You told me you pulled out an old spread­sheet.

Tony 25:47
Yeah, fun­ni­ly enough, I was just like, tidy­ing up by my fold­ers in my files on based on my lap­top over the week­end, fun times when you’re in lock­down. But one of them I came across was a an alpha from 2017, which had a list of 10 dogs of the Dow. And so I spent a bit of time work­ing out how they went between now and then. And, you know, no, this is not the way the dogs are they I was meant to work that you hold on to it for four years. But any­ways, the the the stocks in ques­tion were Domi­no’s Piz­za, Tel­stra, vocus bram­bles, Har­vey, Nor­man grain­corp, Coca Cola, QB, or the skew met­als and health­scope. And over­all, those stocks were up on a com­pound basis, which are up 65% in total, which was about 13% com­pound growth. And the ASX did about 6% over the same time peri­od. So they did dou­ble mar­ket, which was good, but noth­ing to sort of write home about real­ly. And the inter­est­ing thing I thought was that if you took four askew met­als out of that, that list which had tripled in val­ue, or went up three and a half times in val­ue, the the per­for­mance is even a lit­tle bit more ane­mic over­all. So for those key medals had a com­pound growth rate of 46% per annum for those four years. And I just sort of struck home to me again, that, yeah, that the dogs of the Dow does rep­re­sent val­ue. But Fortes­cue met­als has been a core hold­ing for us in both a dum­my port­fo­lio, my own port­fo­lio for a while now. So there are prob­a­bly bet­ter ways of iden­ti­fy­ing the val­ue stocks, in the con­trary in stocks, which we do with q IV.

Cameron 27:40
Did­n’t you just say that it’s done dou­ble mar­ket for the last four years? Isn’t that our isn’t that our objec­tive as well? Dou­ble mar­ket?

Tony 27:46
Yeah, but that’s good point. But I think we would have achieved bet­ter than that. I haven’t gone back and had a look, but 13% keg­ger. over that. Four years is not great. I think we’d be get­ting a nor­mal sort of 1918 to 20%. Over that four years. Right? Yeah. So pos­si­bly, we’re get­ting triple mar­ket over that four year peri­od. Any­way.

Cameron 28:06
fun­ny to think that FMG was con­sid­ered a dog four years ago. Yeah. Now they rule the world. Yeah, for now. Let’s rolling it. Yeah. Bye. For now. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Yeah. Inter­est­ing.

Tony 28:21
When I talk about that, giv­en we were talk­ing about dogs down last week. Yeah. You’re stuck at the week, Tony. Well, I just I record­ed a ses­sion with Phil Mus­catel­lo, today, a 10 minute sort of, we call I think he calls it the week­end stock update. So I did a deep dive into two stocks I did madusa min­ing, which I’ll just rehash, there’s a stock of the week. I also did a dive into Mil­len­ni­um ser­vices, which was our num­ber two stock on the QAV index. I’ll come to that sec­ond. But I want­ed to just go through these. And it’s in prepar­ing for Phil show in I went back and looked at not just our scores and our num­bers, but also annu­al reports and try to do a bit of a use search what was going on with the busi­ness. And it was actu­al­ly a real­ly inter­est­ing process. And I just want­ed to out­line it because it might be that, you know, when we talk about do your own research, once you get a down­load, it’s some peo­ple might feel more com­fort­able almost writ­ing up a stock report. Rather than just say­ing, here are the num­bers and here’s a score, at least it puts it into a sort of for­mat that they’re prob­a­bly used to get­ting from stock­bro­kers and read­ing in the paper and stuff like that. But any­way, long sto­ry short, I use the annu­al report from a do some min­ing, or use, they have a quar­ter­ly report because min­ing stocks must report quar­ter­ly. And then our QAV num­bers to pull togeth­er a sort of pro­file for it. reduc­er is a Philip­pines gold min­er. And so straight­away that high­lights some of the risks which are going on at the moment. They’re in the Philip­pines, they’ve got sov­er­eign risk. It’s a mine, which is over­seas out­side of Aus­tralian law and tax juris­dic­tion. So there could be some risk there might shine there, it will even­tu­al­ly I mean, the Philip­pines is, you know, still oper­at­ing as a sol­id sort of coun­try is COVID, rich. In a quar­ter­ly report, the man­age­ment of mine called out the fact that there was COVID in the area, they’ve been in lock­down, but they’re still oper­at­ing as nor­mal had man­aged to put pro­ce­dures around COVID in place, and we’re still fore­cast­ing there to reach guid­ance, which was good. So there’s a cou­ple of risks there. It’s also a gold­mine. So there’s a risk of the gold price that the gold price comes down and the prof­itabil­i­ty of the com­pa­ny will come down. And that means I went to the gold chart and had a look at it. But it’s still cer­tain­ly in an uptrend as far as we’re con­cerned using a three point trend­lines. The com­pa­ny’s com­mence pay­ing a div­i­dend in the last half, which I think is a big vote of con­fi­dence in the com­pa­ny by man­age­ment, you don’t start doing that. If you think you might have to cut it at some stage in the future. And it’s on a 5% yield, which is pret­ty, pret­ty neat to 5.85%. And I had to look last week, that’s that’s unframed because it’s over­seas income, but it’s still a high yield. I guess the oth­er point to make at this point in time is that ron­nie a month away from get­ting fresh fig­ures from these com­pa­nies, so if any­one wants to is con­sid­er­ing buy­ing things at the moment, they they cer­tain­ly can, as I did last week in sell­ing vir­gin UK and and buy­ing some of the gold min­ers, but they also may want to wait for anoth­er month and see what the new results are. or cer­tain­ly be aware of that. It’s com­ing up.

Cameron
Do you own MML?

Tony
I have a small hold­ing an MML. And that’s because I was doing that cham­pi­on chal­lenger strat­e­gy where I’ve been test­ing a replace­ment the­o­ry of sell­ing out of the low­est QAV stock in my port­fo­lio and buy­ing into the high­est one and I’m only doing it for a small par­cel of shares and MML was… GLE was high­er on the list but was too small. But MML I could do, so I’ve got about $100,000 in email at the moment.

Cameron 32:24
That’s a small amount? I have a small amount of MML. A lot small­er than your small amount of MML. Any­way. I just thought I just thought I thought we should declare that we both own that’s.

Tony 32:37
Yeah, no, you’re right. I just want­ed to make the point. It’s not a core hold­ing, because it’s too small. Any­way, then I start­ed to think about the busi­ness like the num­bers in this busi­ness are amaz­ing, the trades on a price to oper­at­ing cash flow of less than 1.5. And it’s P/E is just over two. And its yield is over 5% near­ly approach­ing 6%. Its net tan­gi­ble assets are $1.21. And the share price when I had a last look was 86 cents. So this is like going down the street and hav­ing a local cof­fee shop oper­a­tor ask you if you’d like to buy the cof­fee shop for less than the break­out val­ue of it. And for one and a half times the cash flows. And you know, twice the P/E, so get your mon­ey back in two years. It’s like the buy of the cen­tu­ry real­ly is from the num­bers point of view. And you sort of say, okay, what’s the catch? And he says, well, it’s in the Philip­pines, it’s not down the street. So you know, there is some risk involved. But I think I think the num­bers are so com­pelling you take the risk real­ly would­n’t you want on a stock like this? I say any­way, I thought was inter­est­ing exer­cise and, and sort of lay­ing out the risks and lay­ing out the rea­son for buy­ing it. There. There are oth­er things in there as well. The finan­cial health is strong. They’re doing explore explo­ration to extend the mine life, that’s a risk because sin­gle mine com­pa­nies have a risk of the mine runs out of gold over a num­ber of years. Excuse me, so they’re um, they always need to explore an area and try and find ways of find­ing new all loads to tap which which this is hap­pen­ing with Medusa. Yeah, so the share price graph is good. Con­sis­tent­ly increas­ing equi­ty was was good for this com­pa­ny. And then one of the quar­ter­ly reports or maybe the annu­al report, they said they’d paid down all the long term debt. So there’s no long term debt for this com­pa­ny. So you know, it’s pret­ty well, well sit­u­at­ed. I think the oth­er risk, one thing I did­n’t like about it was that the direc­tors only held 1% of the com­pa­ny. So giv­en that so cheap, I was sur­prised they weren’t buy­ing more into the com­pa­ny. So, you know, there’s some risk, but I think the val­u­a­tion of this one’s very com­pelling. I just want­i­ng to go through that process of writ­ing a stock report almost, you know, 10 min­utes stock report to see your­self to say, is the recent here’s the, here’s the val­u­a­tion met­rics, which I find com­pelling. And it was a good way of out­lin­ing it for peo­ple who might want to do that if they’re kind of new to doing their own research, it’s not a bad way of doing it.

Cameron 35:24
I’m try­ing to fig­ure out how I’ve lost so much mon­ey on it. After lis­ten­ing to all of that. I bought it aver­age unit cost of 94.5 cents. I’m just look­ing at it’s look­ing at its child stock doc­tor try­ing to fig­ure out when it was ever 94.5 cents. Like how the hell did I pay that much for it? I bought it at mar­ket, I would have put it in that mar­ket order. And some­how I paid way more than it looks like it’s ever been. When did you buy it? I’m try­ing I’m just drilling down into stocked up to I’ll tell you in a sec.

Tony 36:01
It was. Yeah, it was 94 cents in Feb­ru­ary. Accord­ing to the 11th of June 11th of June this year. Yeah. Wow.

Cameron 36:14
Yeah. It peaked on the 11th of June. I bought it the Curse of Cameron. Yeah. If you get if you look at if you look at the like 30 day chart, it peaked on the 11th of June. And it is not you just been falling since. Yeah. Wel­come. Every­body wants to buy him ml I did you a favor. Yeah. has­n’t fall­en five out­side yet. half cents today. Say about sev­en per­cents. Since Yeah, but I mean, it’s dry. It’s been low­ered. I was went down 80 cents, but it’s come back up. Yeah. Alright. That’s inter­est­ing. So it sounds like it’s a good, good oppor­tu­ni­ty. Yeah. And although we’re mak­ing rec­om­men­da­tions, do your own research. But I then want­ed to talk about min­ing ser­vices, which was one point high­er on the on the acu­ity index from Medusa min­ing. So again, it’s a small com­pa­ny, so I’m not going to ever own this stock. Because you have it in the QAV port­fo­lio. Yeah.

Tony 37:17
Okay, so in the dum­my port­fo­lio well, inter­est­ing thing about it when I was con­sid­er­ing doing this one as the report to Phil for his pod­cast, I decid­ed not to And long sto­ry short, I did the same sort of, you know, write up for it using the annu­al report. There’s no quar­ter­ly report for it, an indus­tri­al com­pa­ny, Mil­len­ni­um ser­vices is a is a clean­ing and secu­ri­ty out­sourc­ing com­pa­ny. So it pro­vides clean­ing ser­vices, and secu­ri­ty ser­vices to cor­po­ra­tions. Like big retail­ers, for exam­ple. It’s had a good year, though, which is prob­a­bly why it’s on top of our list that cou­ple of things to note, when I was going through the fig­ures, they did man­age­ment did call out the fact that even though COVID had impact­ed some parts of the busi­ness, it actu­al­ly had helped some parts as well, because they’re doing deep clean­ing. They were doing deep clean­ing in Vic­to­ria prob­a­bly sell­ing up again now in Syd­ney. And they are pro­vid­ing secu­ri­ty ser­vices, you know, for quar­an­tine, so, they may not con­tin­ue on hope­ful­ly, touch wood. But the big thing that they out­lined was they received a large amount of Job­seek­er from the gov­ern­ment. I’m just going to spend a minute here and call up their annu­al report. And from mem­o­ry it was some­thing like $27 — $29 mil­lion of job seek­er. This was in the annu­al report. year end­ed June 2020. I’ve got an item in in the cash flow state­ment which says that there was a net receipt of gov­ern­ment grants of $17 mil­lion and they refer us to note six in the finan­cial state­ments. And if I go down to note six oth­er income year so they picked up $21.8 mil­lion in fed­er­al Aus­tralian Fed­er­al gov­ern­ment grants and picked up anoth­er $2.5 mil­lion from the New Zealand gov­ern­ment for a total of a lit­tle bit from this Queens­land state gov­ern­ment but a total of $24.5 mil­lion and then I had to obvi­ous­ly make out some pay­ments to to the work­ers, the peo­ple who are employed but the net oper­at­ing cash flow. So net oper­at­ing cash flow for the half was oper­at­ing cash flow and stock doc­tor we have $35 mil­lion in net oper­at­ing cash flow for the half com­pared with 120,000 for the half pri­or. This is Decem­ber 20. I’m look­ing at and we don’t have the receipts from the gov­ern­ment sep­a­rat­ed in stock doc­tor but we do see an oper­at­ing oth­er oper­at­ing line of $33 mil­lion worth of oper­at­ing cash flow So there was a lot of a lot of mon­ey’s com­ing in else­where in the reports, I talked about pay­ing $7 mil­lion in extra pay­ments to employ­ees. So my sort of hir­ing, every­one else has said that they actu­al­ly paid down a heck of a lot of debt last year to the tune of about 20 mil­lion bucks. And so noth­ing wrong with that, I guess, unless that mon­ey was meant to go for wages, but I’m not I haven’t done enough due dili­gence to know whether that’s the case or not. But any­way, the com­pa­ny received lots of mon­ey from the gov­ern­ment and paid it paid off lots of debt. So it’s in a good finan­cial sit­u­a­tion going for­ward, it’s it seems to be a good com­pa­ny on most of the met­rics. But my rea­son for high­light­ing all this is that I don’t think we’re going to see Mil­len­ni­um ser­vices as high up on the on the QAV check­list, next half when the next results come out, because of that big COVID pay­ment to them, which went through the oper­at­ing cash flow line. So I’m not say­ing we should sell it from the port­fo­lio, I cer­tain­ly would­n’t. But yeah, I think it’ll be low down the list. If you look back on the oper­at­ing cash flow, over the last sort of five or six years, the high­est it’s been is $8.3 mil­lion. And then before that, after that’s been as low as neg­a­tive 2.7 mil­lion, so with­out that sort of big job keep­er pay­ment, I’m sus­pect­ing it’s kind of dropped back into maybe one or $2 mil­lion of oper­at­ing cash flow, which means it won’t score as well for us going for­ward.

Cameron 41:30
So any­way, it also might mean that when they report their results, their share price might plum­met and breach of sell line or some­thing, or we might have to get rid of it. I mean, what are the impli­ca­tions if we hold it?

Tony 41:42
If we hold it, I don’t think there are any many impli­ca­tions, I don’t think I’d be the first per­son to work out that they’re oper­at­ing cash flows, you know, been sup­port­ed by the gov­ern­ment. And the com­pa­ny cer­tain­ly been doing a lot of restruc­tur­ing to try and reduce their costs any­way, over the last three years. I was read­ing about it when I was going through their annu­al report. But I just want­ed to high­light the fact that, in some cas­es, net oper­at­ing, oper­at­ing cash flow can be some­thing which is tran­si­to­ry. And so, again, like I nev­er went to this stage of doing my research to buy this com­pa­ny, but I would be, you know, con­vinc­ing myself that it was still a good com­pa­ny to invest in if I was buy­ing this com­pa­ny, based on its inflat­ed oper­at­ing cash flow at the moment.

Cameron 42:31
Yeah, that’s what’s going on with them. But if you go back to what I’m look­ing at the five year chart to get back to 2017, the share price was up around $1.68. And then at the begin­ning of 2018, it just start­ed to go through the floor got down and with low­er 17 cents in May of 2019, and then start­ed pick up just after COVID start­ed to real­ly pick up after that. So yeah, some­thing appar­ent­ly, oh, maybe they lost a big con­tract or some­thing. Some­body changed with their busi­ness.

Tony 43:02
Yeah. So as I said that, like read­ing back through the annu­al report, they talk a lot about spend­ing the last three years restruc­tur­ing. So it’s, I would guess they had lots of debt, and have a bit of a near death expe­ri­ence a few years ago, which is prob­a­bly the trough you’re talk­ing about back in sort of 2019, maybe even ear­li­er, as the share price dropped through 2018. And then they actu­al­ly employed a restruc­tur­ing spe­cial­ist as the CEO who spent a lot of time ratio­nal­iz­ing con­tracts. So not not renew­ing con­tracts that were low mar­gin or even neg­a­tive mar­gin. And also invest­ed in tech­nol­o­gy in terms of being able to attract, you know, who was sign­ing off and who was sign­ing on. And that sort of employ­ee track­ing is a big thing in these kinds of com­pa­nies these days. And if you recall, we spoke to Yon reso, exec­u­tive chair­man of Demp­ster about how their prod­uct was used for health and safe­ty track­ing any­way. But I imag­ine it could also be used for this kind of employ­ee track­ing, if you’ve got some­one work­ing out as a shop­ping cen­ter doing the clean­ing at night, you want to make sure that they’re there, they’re there, they’re pro­duc­tive, they’re safe, all that kind of stuff. So the com­pa­ny did invest in that kind of tech­nol­o­gy. So yeah, a bit of restruc­tur­ing went on, was over­bur­dened with debt. And now they’ve been able to pay down a large amount of debt, who knows maybe the p&l their results when it comes around next month actu­al­ly real­ly good, because the share price has been trend­ing up. But I, I did want to point out just the anom­aly in the QAV sys­tem that have some­thing strange hap­pens once off to oper­at­ing cash flow, it can make some­thing look very good to us. Right? Yeah.

Cameron 44:44
I see that going back to late 2018. The CEO resigned slash was fired by the sounds of it pushed and they replaced him with the guy who just resigned then back in May of this year when we talked to This one we were talk­ing about the show once before we com­plet­ed that restruc­ture that you talked about.

2021-07-20

Tony 45:04
Yeah, yeah, that’s right. Yeah. In the in the notices, and you know, who knows if that’s true or not, but he, he moved on because he sees him­self as being a restruc­tur­ing spe­cial­ist want­i­ng to go into oth­er sit­u­a­tions like that into turn around. And I think they pro­mot­ed maybe from with­in, but some­one had been there for at least a year any­way, I think into the role. So they see it much more as a busi­ness as usu­al type appoint­ment for him. Yeah. Any­way, inter­est­ing. I was look­ing at the analy­sis for your show, and I thought was worth shar­ing.

Cameron 45:41
But this isn’t the sort of thing that you’re going to start doing for all stocks

Tony 45:45
are, I kind of do it in a short hand­ed way? cam. So I still just flick through the num­bers and and sort of form the opin­ion based on that quick­ly. Some­times I’ll go into the oper­at­ing cash flow, if it looks a bit like Mil­len­ni­um ser­vices and say, well, hang on, why is it so so big this quar­ter, or this half? But there’s noth­ing that struc­tured like that, that I’ll do, I’ll gen­er­al­ly, you know, get the QAV score, do some research. And the research being, you know, maybe have a look at the annu­al report, and he doing you search, and then decide whether to buy or not. But, you know, I’ve been doing it for years. But it was just this process of going out and actu­al­ly writ­ing it out, which I found very inter­est­ing again.

Cameron 46:28
And in your expe­ri­ence, obvi­ous­ly, the job seek­er sit­u­a­tion is fair­ly unusu­al. Yeah. In your 30 years, have you seen things like this hap­pen before where there’s an unusu­al amount of mon­ey that hits a busi­ness and then is gone the next year and cre­ates a bit of a spike?

Tony 46:52
I can’t think of it from I can’t think of any oth­er ones besides this. I’m think­ing it might be the case, if there’s like a sale of a busi­ness and as a pay­ment that comes, you know, as an urn out, maybe or a roy­al­ty from a min­ing com­pa­ny that spun off or some­thing like that. That might be a case, but I can’t think of any spe­cif­ic exam­ples. Hmm.

Cameron 47:14
And even in those cas­es, though, I mean, they get that mon­ey in and then we would assume they’re gonna use it to.

Tony 47:21
And that’s my point of ser­vice is they paid off a whack of debt. And that was the that was the biggest risk, I think was being over geared. So that seems to have cleared so we weren’t, we might even find that come the next results of share price goes up. Hmm, yeah. Well,

Cameron 47:36
it cer­tain­ly gone up since we added it to the Q IV port­fo­lio a week ago. So a cou­ple of days ago, actu­al­ly was­n’t even that long. Yeah. And that was big semi. Yeah, good. Okay. Thanks for the analy­sis. By the way, harm is now up. 4.12%. It’s gone up since we’ve been talk­ing. So

Cameron 47:57
twice as bad. As gonna say if we were putting this out live, I would say it’s every­one jump­ing on but it’s not that. Well, the mar­kets closed. Any­way.

Cameron 48:07
Yeah, I want to do a shout out to all the guys over in wha got an email after the last show from Glen Con­roy over there say­ing, Hey, lis­ten, you men­tioned many mee­tups around the coun­try. And if any­one else is doing in Perth, I’d be inter­est­ed. And I said, Well, no one is but let me email every­one wi and I think we got like 20 guys, now that a get a go to a are inter­est­ing going to a Perth meet­up. So that’s great. I’m try­ing to think there must be a bet­ter way of intro­duc­ing when peo­ple sign up to QA v club, if they’re in a major geo­graph­i­cal region or cap­i­tal city, to intro­duce them into the pre exist­ing QA v com­mu­ni­ty that’s there and make intro­duc­tions. So I’m going to try and fig­ure out a bet­ter way of doing that. Like a mini Face­book group or a mini some sort of thing. So I can say, oh, add your­self to add your­self to that if you want to meet oth­er mem­bers in your area, because I think this, this idea of old mem­bers and new mem­bers get­ting togeth­er for beer and piz­za and going through check­lists and score­cards, and all that kind of stuff is is ter­rif­ic. I just want to fig­ure out how to facil­i­tate it. So if any­one has any ideas for a good way of doing that. Please let me know. While I’m talk­ing about club mem­bers shout out to James Ed, Andrew, Doug, and I think cos­man who have all post­ed score­cards to the Face­book group in the last few days. Doing a great job. Every­one’s it’s real­ly tak­ing off every­one shar­ing their results. I think James and Ed got togeth­er. They’re only lit­tle mini cube AV club and did it togeth­er and com­pared notes as they went. So that’s great. Where­as, so real­ly excit­ed to see peo­ple shar­ing this stuff and every­one else jump­ing on and you jump­ing on and pro­vid­ing feed­back and com­men­tary. And I agree with this. I don’t know about that. Where’d you get that from? It’s real­ly, real­ly excit­ing.

Tony 50:24
I agree. It’s good, isn’t it? It’s evolv­ing. Well, it’s real­ly well, I hope for us to get a group of like mind­ed peo­ple help­ing each oth­er.

Cameron 50:32
Yeah, and because I think we’ve been doing this long enough now that we’ve got enough peo­ple that have been around long enough, and they not only are com­fort­able with the process, but they’ve got the results like Mark men­tioned ear­li­er with his 61% return. And there’s been oth­er guys who have report­ed this stuff we’ve talked about ear­li­er, so they know what they’re doing. They know how to run it. So that’s great. They can teach oth­ers and spread the live. Speak­ing of spread­ing the love add in or out, Tony, we need to

Tony 51:07
I saw them get­ting used. It’s out. I saw the post last night actu­al­ly replied on the Face­book group to some­one who was ask­ing you about it. And it’s a falling knife. I’ve got to get bet­ter at Face­book post because I found a cou­ple of my posts are just got­ten mis­placed or putting into like, plugged into a dif­fer­ent part of the thread than what I thought they were going to go to. So I did I did pub­lish a graph in a and a note say­ing I had a falling knife. It was part of my lat­est down­load which was mid­dle of last week or maybe Thurs­day because it had bumped up into a buy but it’s been going buy sell buy sell buy sell all the way down it’s cer­tain­ly below it sell price now as well as being above its buy price. So it’s a falling knife. A Schro­ding­er Yes. Still, I

Cameron 51:54
think we talked about it a cou­ple of weeks ago and we said a short­ing it. So

Tony 51:57
it did still down­load at some stage between then and now and think­ing okay, maybe it’s picked up enough to be a buy, but now it’s a falling knife.

Cameron 52:07
Right. Okay, AGD, Aus­tral gold? no bueno. Okay, unless you have any­thing else, let’s get into the ques­tion where we’re an hour into this, and we haven’t done any ques­tions. Yeah, for me talk­ing about things. So yeah. Ben, hi, Cameron. First time ques­tion as a new lis­ten­er investor. Wel­come, Ben. Ques­tion about rule one, how much mon­ey or per­cent­age is enough to trig­ger a sell to avoid los­ing mon­ey with bro­ker­age each new stock I buy begins as a loss. But being so small, I’m up to about 10 stocks. Now. Some have dropped a cou­ple of per­cent before shoot­ing up and oth­ers dropped a few per­cent and stayed there. kind­est regards lov­ing the show so far. Cheers, Ben. And I thought it’s good because I actu­al­ly don’t know the answer to this ques­tion, either. Because I’ve got some stocks, like some of the ones I’ve men­tioned on the show that are like MML that have fall­en. And I know we’ve talked before about well, how close are they to the sell line? So rule num­ber one for new lis­ten­ers is don’t lose mon­ey as War­ren Buf­fet­t’s rule num­ber one. But you know, it’s so I’m not real­ly sure how, what I should be doing with these. I need this, Ben.

Tony 53:22
Yeah. And I think the first point that the Ben’s real­ized is that, I think prob­a­bly every time I buy a stock, if I look at it, the next day, it’s gone down by at least the bro­ker­age, and some­times it’s tak­ing a down­turn that day. So it might be down by more in the short term, it’s just the sort of ran­dom nature of when you buy it. But over­all, it will go up. So I don’t I tend not to look at things, you know, for a while after I buy them until there’s a trend that’s estab­lished. Because Yeah, you just wor­ry your­self about nice down. 1% is down 2% is down 3%. Next is back­up 5%. So, yeah, when you’re that close to the bite, it’s, it’s not worth look­ing at it. Right there. That aside, there is no real hard and fast rule with rule num­ber one, I think, if you took the view that, like you, like you, in the case that you had with MML, you bought some­thing and it’s down 6% or what­ev­er it is, you know, if you sold it, and then you bought some­thing else, and it dropped 3% and you sold it and you’ve bought some­thing else it dropped 5% sud­den­ly you’re down, you know, 14% in three trades. Where­as if you had bought it and wrote it out, because you think it’s a good buy, and the trend over­all is up, you know, it may be 10% up so you’ve lost mon­ey. So I would­n’t apply this sort of stop loss rule to any­thing I bought recent­ly. And then in terms of oth­er than that, it’s real­ly I think it’s con­text based. So yes, I am I am look­ing at the three point sell line. If it’s get­ting down close to three point sell line, I might go a lit­tle bit neg­a­tive in terms of what I paid for it to see if if sen­ti­ment turns around. But if it cross­es the three point so long I’m sell­ing. And I may have lost a bit more mon­ey than if I had just sold it out at breakeven. But that’s some­times like up some­times I go down. It’s kind of like a 50/50 bet. But it’s also the con­text of what what’s the share price doing, like we talked before about Look at that, look at those retail­ers, and they’re in a down­trend. If I hypo­thet­i­cal­ly, if I bought a dais at the top, and even though it’s still on its uptrend, and it was now down 10, or 20%. And the down­trend looked like it was con­tin­u­ing, and I could­n’t see a rea­son for it to improve, I might be tempt­ed to sell because of rule num­ber one. So it’s con­text bias. It’s it’s on the flip side of that we’re now a month away from New fig­ures. So I might hold on and see what the new fig­ures say. Which again, could be worse the share price either way. But at least we’re oper­at­ing with, you know, with some num­bers then rather than five or six month old num­bers. So it real­ly is there’s no hard and fast rule. It real­ly is con­text base. We had an expe­ri­ence with a dum­my port­fo­lio dur­ing the year that ramil­lies resources we bought in, put it in the port­fo­lio, it went went up, it came back, it start­ed to trend below our buy price, and I said sell it. That’s rule num­ber one. So we’ve at least pre­served their cap­i­tal, but then it turned around and went for a run. So we would have, you know, made good mon­ey out of it. So it’s pret­ty hard to know what to do in apply­ing rule one. If If I had to sort of sum it up, I’d say if I real­ly thought the trend was going to con­tin­ue down. And I was at my breakeven point with either Invok­er or one, but I would­n’t do it soon after buy­ing the stock.

Cameron 56:39
How long would you Wait, do you think before you had that con­ver­sa­tion with your­self?

Tony 56:44
A cou­ple of weeks or a month? Yeah, right? Yeah. Okay. You know, there’s a dif­fer­ent sto­ry. If the CEO resigns tomor­row, or the CFO resigns tomor­row, and there’s a you know, bad smell about the com­pa­ny, I’d sell it. But yeah, that’s for a dif­fer­ent rea­son. Real­ly.

Cameron 56:59
I’m look­ing at, you know, my own port­fo­lio. There’s some stocks there that I bought rough­ly a month ago. Medusa is one of them. It’s down 6.3% since I bought and that includes bro­ker­age by the way. I’m down at MTO motor­cy­cle hold­ings is down 4.43% hums down 8.27% GLA is now down. 6% because I opened my bloody mouth and said it was going up and I jinxed it. But again, that that includes bro­ker­age as well, which we then sort of trades on doing bro­ker­age is actu­al­ly you know, sig­nif­i­cant. So but you know, when I look at the sell prices for those, they’re way above the three point train line. So I’m like, Yeah, like, if I guess my ratio­nale, what I’ve been talk­ing to Tyler, about these sorts of things is, look, we bought it because it’s scored? Well, it’s good. Well, because we believed it’s a good com­pa­ny, it’s per­form­ing well, it’s gen­er­at­ing cash, it’s got a good track record. I’m just going to ignore the mar­ket until it does some­thing sig­nif­i­cant­ly, I bought it for the right rea­sons. I’m just going to wait and see what hap­pens. Real­ly, I don’t want to be too jumpy about it, you know?

Tony 58:11
No, exact­ly. That’s I think if you’re jumpy, you just accu­mu­late loss­es. That way, if you if you saw all those posi­tions, you’re book­ing your loss of, you know, maybe five to 10% on those on what’s maybe about a quar­ter of your port­fo­lio, which is going to be a siz­able loss, and then you may buy back into things that have the same iter­a­tive cycle again, so you’re just com­pound­ing your loss­es. So because you don’t know. Yeah, you don’t know. I think what gives you com­fort when, when that hap­pens, and when it hap­pens to me is that if I looked at MML, for exam­ple, yeah, it was down 6%. The trend, the share prices, over­all is good, it’s going up, even if I had to pick the wrong day to buy it. And the num­bers are real­ly com­pelling. They’re fan­tas­tic. So I’d be very con­fi­dent to hold it through a, you know, a swing below while I paid for it.

Cameron 58:57
And then the oth­er con­ver­sa­tion that I had with him was about Myer, because it’s up 48% since we bought it a month, real­ly. Thanks to Sol­ly Lew. Yeah, but and he says, well, should we sell it? You know, take that when and rein­vest it. And I said to him the oth­er day, yeah, but you don’t know what you’re rein­vest­ing it in. You know, it could. It could be some dogs, we don’t know. So it gets back to water your flow­ers and pull your weeds I think for some­thing like that. Yeah.

Tony 59:25
And, and you’ve got cap­i­tal gains tax. If you’re sow­ing some­thing quick­ly. If you’re not hold­ing it for more than a year, you’re pay­ing twice as much cap­i­tal gains tax. So there’s that issue. And look, you know, if you think about it, if Sony likes it and is invest­ing heav­i­ly in the com­pa­ny, he does­n’t think it’s going to go down. Yeah, he’s a very expe­ri­enced and suc­cess­ful trad­er. So that was also my think­ing about Mey­er as well.

Cameron 59:48
He might be try­ing to take a pri­vate again, might be try­ing to buy the whole thing. dri­ve it all the way up to the moon. Could I say the Wall Street read it’s no Hey, good ques­tion, Ben, thank you for ask­ing that to clar­i­fy that anoth­er one from Ben. He says as a fair­ly young investor sim­i­lar age to your sons would Tony can, Scott sor­ry, would Tony con­sid­er cer­tain stocks as bet­ter stocks to invest in when con­sid­er­ing longer or short terms in the mar­ket? For exam­ple, what do you ever con­sid­er adding a met­ric to the score­card high­light­ing a stock high­er for poten­tial growth over 30 years as opposed to say, five years I asked fair­ly nave­ly as a 25 year old, I’ve had my first les­son under­stand­ing super and read­ing that super funds offer dif­fer­ent strate­gies of invest­ing depend­ing on your age, for exam­ple, going to more cash as you get old­er, as a more safer, less risky away, as opposed to more mon­ey in the mar­ket for com­pound­ing poten­tial over 40 years. hope that makes sense. Won­der­ing what Tony’s thoughts are for QAV strat­e­gy for younger investors with a heap of time, as opposed to QAV for you old bas­tards 50 Plus, he did­n’t say all bas­tards, I added that in but I yeah, I could read between the lines. Thanks,

Tony 1:01:06
Ben. Great ques­tion. And Geez, all I can say is I wish I was you start­ing out. Hav­ing such a lev­el head on your shoul­ders and work­ing out what to do. And yeah, stand­ing super in invest­ments. It’s fan­tas­tic. I mean, you’ve got such a head start on peo­ple like myself, and and prob­a­bly you can as well that prob­a­bly, def­i­nite­ly face­tious. You can’t real­ly you can’t wind back the clock and get that back. So you can’t i can’t under empha­size how impor­tant it is. They’re just start­ing at 25. But to answer your ques­tions, the first one about if I knew some­thing was going to be a bet­ter 30 year stock and a short term stock. Yeah, I def­i­nite­ly score it well, but I’ve got no idea. what’s what’s the stock the whole for 30 years. I’m think­ing back was 30 years ago from now the 1990s. There’s a there’s There are so apples, Apple. Yeah. Well, that’s right. There’s one is Ama­zon is Apple, Google. Yeah. But there was also an MySpace head­stock, pets.com. And pets.com. says, Well, at the time, but I was think­ing like, Yeah, why would it be part of korsmey­er? Back then, but I’m not sure it would have been a great invest­ment to hold for 30 years. So if you have any insight into what makes a good long term hold, let me know about it, I find it real­ly hard to pre­dict. You know, Fortes­cue met­als was­n’t around them. But it’s been a great part of our cor­ner­stone of our port­fo­lio. So yeah, what I did think of was prop­er­ty was your own house. So ben­e­fit, if you don’t own your own house, or you’re think­ing about when you might buy your own house, that’s cer­tain­ly a long term hold. And it does give you the ben­e­fit, as we spo­ken about in some of the ear­ly shows of them, once you get your mort­gage under con­trol, to real­ly gear into the mar­ket, and start to invest once you have your mort­gage under con­trol that prop­er­ty will give you a you know, maybe 910 11% return longer term, but the gear­ing abil­i­ty of being able to bor­row means that the ROI on your equi­ty in the prop­er­ty is huge. So it’s a, it’s a bit dif­fer­ent to the share mar­ket where use it’s much hard­er to get into, unless you have a prop­er­ty where you pay down the mort­gage, and you can get into it with­out equi­ty. So that would be where I’d be focus­ing your atten­tion. I mean, it’s great to be invest­ed in the share mar­ket, you should do that too. But if you if you can get your prop­er­ty under­way, that’s a great 30 year hold. In terms of what you said about super, and you’re mak­ing good point. So the con­ven­tion­al wis­dom with super­an­nu­a­tion is if you think about super­an­nu­a­tion, it gets offered to peo­ple who are employed, gen­er­al­ly they have to tick a box and say, I want to go into a growth fund or a bal­anced fund or an Income Fund, or what­ev­er. And the con­ven­tion­al wis­dom is you go for into growth funds, your first 20 years and then bal­anced funds after that, and an income on retire­ment. And I’ve nev­er real­ly bought into that argu­ment because I think he should be putting your mon­ey work at his best return. So I’ve always been ful­ly invest­ed in the share mar­ket using my sys­tem and haven’t tried to bal­ance it away with, you know, oth­er asset class­es. I don’t like diver­si­fi­ca­tion. Hav­ing said that, you know, we do have prop­er­ty, we live in a nice apart­ment and all that. So we are some­what diver­si­fied away from the share mar­ket, but real­ly, we’re still part of the Aus­tralian econ­o­my. So gen­er­al­ly, if one hurts one, it hurts the oth­er. Any­way. So, Ben, I think you’re doing great. I don’t think he should go into a bal­anced port­fo­lio as you get old­er. I think he’s stay­ing in growth assets. The res­cue, which the finan­cial advi­sors will talk about is the day before you retire, the share mar­ket crash­es and you go into retire­ment with a sort of an income than you thought you had and that’s cer­tain­ly a risk but as peo­ple like Steve Sam­marti­no have said you just take the div­i­dends and keep going. Because, you know the div­i­dends will if they do drop or drop much less than the share mar­ket does because Com­pa­nies will do what­ev­er they can to keep those div­i­dends going. So yeah, I don’t buy into that stock mar­ket drop on the last day of work­ing type argu­ment. I think you can recov­er from that. And the flip side is, if you if you’ve been in a growth port­fo­lio for a long peri­od of time, when you get to retire­ment age, you’ve got a shit­load of mon­ey. If it does drop by 20%, today, before you retire, you just shrug your shoul­ders and say, Okay, well, I’ll make that back in the next three or four years, or one year or six months, if you’ve got a great invest­ment strat­e­gy, so it’s nev­er wor­ried me.

Cameron 1:05:34
I said to I read my reply to Ben, I said, it’s great ques­tion, last, Tony. But my guess is that if Tony knew what was going to do well over 30 years, he would buy it cor­rect. You know, that’s the because, you know, you’re a long term investor, too. I mean, you’re a young guy, you plan to be around for at least anoth­er 30 years. So if you knew you would buy that, if he knew some­thing was going to do con­sis­tent­ly, well over 30 years, you would buy it, right?

Tony 1:05:57
Yeah, I would. And I haven’t been able to iden­ti­fy that. I mean, there’s, there’s the Peter Lynch approach, where if you look around with all the big brands that you use, you know, the the Myers and the cred­it card, the bank that you use, you get your mort­gage worth and the util­i­ty you get your gas with, and all that kind of stuff and put a port­fo­lio togeth­er of sol­id brand names. As my wife table before we were mar­ried before we were togeth­er, she did I cared about it was­n’t QA type num­bers, but it did beat the index, because, you know, those sol­id com­pa­nies con­tin­ue to do well. They don’t con­tin­ue nec­es­sar­i­ly for 30 years. I mean, some of those com­pa­nies aren’t around any­more, like, CSR, for exam­ple, was one of her hold­ings got, you know, eat­en up by I think, bor­row from mem­o­ry. And it’s had its ups and downs. So, yeah, it is pos­si­ble to con­struct a port­fo­lio for the long term, but I found it’s bet­ter to do the sort of invest­ing we’re doing. If we do have to sell, you know, in six months or a year. Well, so be it. And as we say, to their best invest­ment strat­e­gy is to buy TARDIS or to build a TARDIS. So you can go back and go for­ward and see what’s kind of worked, but we don’t have that, unfor­tu­nate­ly. Mm hmm. Yeah, God, but I’d give her a TARDIS. Go back and see what what was up in the mar­ket. You go back to Julius Cae­sar, and live the adven­ture and all those.

Cameron 1:07:22
Yeah, I’d get back actu­al­ly, to see my kids when they were five. Again, I go back to see Hunter and Tay­lor when they were five and Roman. Go back and spend time with my father. My grand­par­ents, you know, that’d be more impor­tant to me than going and see­ing Julius Cae­sar going spend­ing time with my fam­i­ly that are gone, or kids when they were lit­tle stuff like that? Yeah, yeah. I go back. I go back when I met you 13 years ago, or what­ev­er, and go, Hey, what is this thing that you do? Actu­al­ly, tell me now? Don’t tell me 10 years from now tell me now. I’d be a lit­tle bit more pushy. Tom. Hi, Cameron. In the sum­ma­ry you sent out the graph for cop­per is the cop­pers futures. If the if you use the graph I’ve attached which I think is the cur­rent price, it’s a lot clos­er to the three point trend line. Any thoughts on this?

Tony 1:08:16
Yes, Tom? Toms cor­rect. So he uses in stock doc­tors called XCU_ which is the phys­i­cal cost of cop­per. And last last week, we use the cop­per futures when we graphed it. You do have the abil­i­ty and stock doc­tor to com­pare one with the oth­er. So if you go into the advanced graph­ing, you can put one in and then over­lay it with the oth­er using the Com­pare facil­i­ty, which I did before. And last time is right, the cop­per phys­i­cal graph is much clos­er to its sell line and the cop­per futures graph. They do have a very strong cor­re­la­tion. His­tor­i­cal­ly, it’s only in the last sort of three months where the futures graph has gone up and the phys­i­cal graph has­n’t. I have lim­it­ed knowl­edge of the futures mar­ket. But gen­er­al­ly speak­ing, I would think that those kinds of dif­fer­ences trade them­selves away as the futures con­tracts get clos­er to the cur­rent date. So either the futures all come down or cop­per will go up is gen­er­al­ly what hap­pens. It’s, you know, it can’t it’s it’s fore­cast­ing, but it must be cop­per traders out there who think the price is going to go up because they’re buy­ing futures con­tracts at a high­er price to the cur­rent price.

Cameron 1:09:32
So I just try­ing to under­stand what you said there. So if I go I’m in the stock com­modi­ties thing. Is it cop­per phys­i­cal? Is that the one I’m com­par­ing cop­per futures to?

Tony 1:09:43
Yes. So let me go look at that myself. So I’m going into the stock doc­tors advanced chart­ing sec­tion on the front page where it says mar­kets and I’m click­ing on com­modi­ties, and then XCU_ cop­per phys­i­cal, they call it cor­rect. That’s the one that But Thomas told us to look at.

Cameron 1:10:03
Yeah, I think he’s right. So if I do the three point trend­line for that, in fact, it’s breached the sell line, I’d say today

Tony 1:10:11
Real­ly? I don’t think so, I’ll do a com­pare. So the futures Stock Doc­tor code is HG#. I’ll just com­pare it to XCU_.

Cameron 1:10:26
unless I’m draw­ing it wrong, but or maybe it’s right on it.

Tony 1:10:32
Yeah. I have a look today, and it was just above it from what I can see.

Cameron 1:10:35
Or Yeah, just above it. Yeah. Noth­ing, you prob­a­bly right. Just try­ing to get the line, right. So using still COVID cof­fers the low point March 2020. And then I’m using L2 at may 2020. Same as the futures L2

Tony 1:10:51
Yeah. So I’m using I’m using March 2020. And then may 2020.

Cameron 1:10:58
Yeah. So it comes in? Yeah, you’re right. The cur­rent prices, just a lit­tle bit above it, but it’s very bloody close.

Tony 1:11:06
Yeah. Inter­est­ing­ly enough that in the course of the day, the futures has dropped down as well. It must be a quite a volatile graph. When I had a look, today, when I was prepar­ing it was up. Now it’s down any­way, it does track pret­ty close to the real cop­per price. But yeah, no good pick up there, Tom. And we’ll watch it because it does affect stocks, like C6C in our port­fo­lio.

Cameron 1:11:31
Hmm. And let’s see what’s going on with that. At the moment. We’re up two and a half per­cent today. It’s come back quite a bit since its high Point in May, though, owns up quite a bit, come back over the last cou­ple of months, slight­ly, but still up 250% since we bought it so you know. Right? Being good. We bought it at the end of Octo­ber $1.15. cur­rent­ly trad­ing at $4.03. Holy crap, that was a good call TK. That was a good call worked well

Tony 1:12:09
done. And like if I’m hap­py to sell it if it if the cop­per price breach­es. So I have a look at the three point trend­line cal­cu­la­tor, a cop­per, I put the those two low points into a spread­sheet, I get $3.67 as my sell price, what’s it cur­rent­ly? Right $4.03? Yeah, so it’s a lit­tle bit a lit­tle bit low­er. The sell price is a lit­tle bit low­er than the cur­rent price.

Cameron 1:12:41
Yeah, well, I’m hop­ing you made a wor­thy sac­ri­fice to the gods and Gods for that one.

Tony 1:12:49
Copy usu­al­ly is a proxy for the world econ­o­my. And when­ev­er the world econ­o­my grows, cop­per goes up because it gets used in law of con­struc­tion. And that’s what’s dri­ven since the COVID cough. But per­haps the Delta out­breaks is start­ing to slow that growth and peo­ple are tak­ing your point of view that we might not grow as fast from here. I don’t know.

Cameron 1:13:13
All right, a good one. Thank you, Tom, Doug. Doug post­ed his score­card to Face­book, but I noticed he had one stop there with an oper­at­ing sor­ry, what have I writ­ten here? price to oper­at­ing cash flow of 11. And he said I did­n’t think we fil­tered for it just scored for it. This is for ppl. So I want­ed to ask you, and I think I did I think you’ve answered this on Face­book, but just for the peo­ple lis­ten­ing in. So when I do a score­card, the first thing I do is fil­ter out every­thing with an oper­ate a priced oper­at­ing cash flow of greater than sev­en. And I just deal with the stuff that’s left. Do you do that? Or do you just keep them all in and make a deci­sion based on their QAV score, regard­less of the price to oper­at­ing cash flow at the end of the day?

Tony 1:14:08
Yeah, the lat­ter. So I do a down­load. I do sort by price, oper­at­ing cash flow and then col­or code my down­load sheet. So the red ones are above sev­en, but I’ll leave them in. And then when I do my man­u­al­ly enter data and then do a sort to get to the the top scor­ers list. The fil­ter­ing, the sort­ing process cre­ates the list based on the QAV score and some­times at the bot­tom of that list, there are com­pa­nies with a price to oper­at­ing cash flow high­er than sev­en. If they have a very good qual­i­ty score, they can they can sneak in. Not not often but right. They can Yeah. Right. That’s inter­est­ing. Okay. And also I’ll leave it in for the oth­er oth­er rea­son cou­ple rea­sons cam so I’m here with him because if I read an arti­cle about a com­pa­ny in the paper, and I think I bet­ter go and check what that is in the queue. I have a list. I guess I could, I could see what it is, I could see that it was about oper­at­ing cash flow of a price, the oper­at­ing cash flow sev­en, if it was­n’t there, but I’d like to go through and see see them in the list still and say, okay, that one’s got a price oper­at­ing cash flow of 20 is prob­a­bly not going to be of inter­est at all. So I’m gonna leave it alone. That hap­pened today, there was a an arti­cle by our friend Michael Gold­stein, it was in. Well seen, one of the emails I’ve got today, talk­ing about retail food group, which is a com­pa­ny I’ve owned in the past, and then went very close to going broke. And Michael, sug­gest­ing it might come back, I jumped, first thing I did was open up the spread­sheet jump­ing to my down­load list, look for it, and it had a price oper­at­ing cash flow of 20. So I would­n’t be doing any more fur­ther research on that, based on that. So that’s why I keep­ing all the price to oper­at­ing cash flows. I don’t I mean, our QAV fil­ter does­n’t down­load the whole, the whole stock mar­ket, because if it has a neg­a­tive cash flow, we don’t down­load it. But there’s some­thing like six or 700 stocks in that first down­load, which I still keep. Yeah, yeah,

Cameron 1:16:09
well, they I use a Andrew Flit­man’s ver­sion of the sheet now. And they’re all still in there. I just fil­tered them out. So they’re hid­den, but I can just clear all fil­ters and still see them. But so would you do the man­u­al data for stocks that have an oper­at­ing priced oper­at­ing cash flow greater than sev­en? You still do all of that? You know, I don’t get it. You don’t? Okay. Well, so you might as well be fil­tered out if you’re not going to do it.

Tony 1:16:35
No, because one of the things I do from time to time is I’ll go to that start­ed the rate and my down­load lists where we’ve got com­pa­nies which are above sev­en. And I’ll just have a look, you know, I’ve got pos­i­tive sen­ti­ment, right. If they’re like point O nine, then maybe putting the man­u­al into data room will flip them over into a onto the top scor­ers list. So yeah, I do. I do check the top entries in that list, which is just below the fil­ter­ing.

Cameron 1:17:04
Okay, yeah. All right. Good to know. Well, thank you for pick­ing me up on that. Doug. I learned some­thing. I obvi­ous­ly missed that along the way. Last ques­tion from Glenn. I, by the way, Michael Gold­stein head­ed his fund last finan­cial year did­n’t see him in the top list.

Tony 1:17:19
I did read an arti­cle in the paper say­ing you done real­ly, real­ly well. Yeah, yeah. Maybe it’s a dif­fer­ent clas­si­fi­ca­tion of fund or some­thing. She get emo­tion­al. Talk­ing about super funds. I don’t know. Maybe,

Cameron 1:17:32
Glen, one of the rea­sons to sell is the com­pa­ny issues new finan­cials or updat­ed guid­ance, which neg­a­tive­ly affect its out­look, just try­ing to pre­pare myself for the next round of report­ing and won­der­ing if Tony could expand on this point fur­ther? Are the key mea­sures in finan­cial reports that are key to look for? The finan­cial reports are long? And what’s this say­ing Knights was the Game of Thrones thing. knights of law, the Knights along in the dan­gers many oth­er finan­cial points along and there are key sec­tions he will pay? Are there key sec­tions he will pay atten­tion to?

Tony 1:18:05
Yeah, well. So to answer the ques­tion Jean­nette, like for at a high lev­el gen­er­al­ly. Usu­al­ly, even before I get a chance to look at the com­pa­ny, the share price has react­ed to the new fig­ures. And if there’s some­thing bad in May, it’ll the share price will drop. Before I even get a chance to do some analy­sis, it gen­er­al­ly hap­pens on the day that the results are announced that peo­ple are all over it and mak­ing their moves. That does­n’t wor­ry me so much. I mean, I’m always hap­py to give up the first 10 or 20% of a share move. Which allows me time to do my analy­sis and bear in mind that stock Dr. Why have the num­bers in there straight­away can take three or four days some­times for those num­bers to come in. The thing review may not report on the com­pa­ny’s announce­ment until the next day or the day after, or the week­end or some­thing like that. So by the time we find out what the rea­son is behind the share price move­ment, the move­ments already hap­pened. So that’s the first thing to know is to is to, I guess pay atten­tion to what’s hap­pen­ing with the price. After that you did­n’t, you did­n’t want to go and you did­n’t want to go and have a look at hope­ful­ly we’ve got num­bers in stock doc­tor, I’d be focus­ing on the oper­at­ing cash flow, I’d prob­a­bly do a down­load and see whether it’s on our list or whether it’s it’s it’s gone up or down on our list, which is prob­a­bly going to be because the oper­at­ing cash flow. If it still scores Well, in the share price has moved I prob­a­bly then think it was the the out­look the com­pa­ny’s giv­en guid­ance of some kind either up or down dra­mat­i­cal­ly. And then I go to their announce­ments and just I usu­al­ly pro­vide a pre­sen­ta­tion as well to go with the announce­ment. And I prob­a­bly skim through the first cou­ple of pages in that which would have the, you know we’ve done real­ly good stuff in it. And we may not do as good in the future would be in there some­where to per­haps if the share price went down or where we can hit the lights. Get the ball out of the park. Next half, which might be in there too, which would make the share price go up. So they’re prob­a­bly the things I pay atten­tion to oth­er­wise, I’m just doing nor­mal sort of down­load string com­pa­ny report­ing sea­son and, you know, look­ing at the list and mak­ing my deci­sions based on the num­bers. I think I did want to Glen I did say that the share price, I’ll work it out before we do, which is true. But I’d also cau­tion peo­ple from react­ing in a knee jerk style to a share price, a quick share price move­ment, I’ve often found it ben­e­fi­cial to wait until I get the num­bers and do my own analy­sis. And yeah, if a share price has dropped, I’ve, you know, lost a bit of mon­ey. But often­times, the the game, like the dance hap­pens, where announce­ment hap­pens, every­one just makes a knee jerk reac­tion to that sort of announce­ment in the first era of the mar­ket being open after the announce­ment, the share price will move dra­mat­i­cal­ly involved and be volatile. And then it might set­tle down. And then calmer heads pre­vail, and you’ll see okay, well, okay, the share price is down 20%. In a cou­ple of days, what’s going on here might be a time to buy. Now, it often hap­pens that you get a bounce back from from that ini­tial sort of it’s they’re almost like head­less chick­en. I mean, I’ve been at announce­ments when you know, these, these young guys and their pin­stripe suits run­ning with a hand­ful of paper, get on their phones quick­ly and run out again. And they are the next announce­ment next com­pa­ny report. Because it is a is a tough time. There’s there’s like, you know, 20 com­pa­nies report­ing on the same day, you’ve got to be run­ning around to get to under­stand what’s going on. And you’re mak­ing snap deci­sions, which may in hind­sight, prove not to be the best one. So yeah. stay the course. Glen. I think I just out­lined what I do. But yeah, gen­er­al­ly, I’m just down­load­ing from stock doc­tor. I’m bas­ing deci­sions upon the not on the num­bers, unless there’s some hor­ri­ble, huge move in the stock price like it did drop 20% or 20%. And I start to do some research there, but gen­er­al­ly that that’s not the case.

Cameron 1:22:06
And from mem­o­ry, you’re nor­mal­ly doing two or three down­loads a week dur­ing report­ing sea­son, but this time as you’ll prob­a­bly be in lock­down, and won’t be play­ing golf. I’ll be doing them every day. When I go. Yeah, yeah. Well, let’s hope not exact­ly.

Tony 1:22:26
a month away. So hope­ful­ly I’m out of lock­down by them.

Cameron 1:22:29
Yeah, God, let’s hope so. Yeah. Well, that’s the night is long and full of Ter­rors is the Game of Thrones, qui­et. I was try­ing to remem­ber their finan­cial reports too long and full of Ter­rors. Thank you, Tony. That’s it. It’s a full lead. 90 min­utes. Good luck. Hope you you know, you’re allowed to, you know, get out or can’t get out soon.

Tony 1:22:56
Yeah, I can get out now and just don’t real­ly feel it’s safe. But any­way, it will hap­pen soon. And yes, for the past five years. I can put the roast on. In case peo­ple were won­der­ing the Bris­bane din­ner with us not hap­pen­ing this week. Yeah, no, thanks for that now. Seems like every time I book a inter­state hol­i­day COVID hap­pens. So I just it’s like, yeah, yeah, yeah. All right. Thanks. Bye. Have a good one. Thanks, Cameron. Bye.